Lessons Learned: Ravnica Allegiance Mythic Edition

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Last week, Sigmund wrote a great article on why he canceled his order of Ravnica Allegiance Mythic Edition after it failed to sell out. I definitely understand his reasoning, but for those of us who did purchase them – myself included – we should look at the data to establish any final conclusions.

The first thing everyone should have considered was that the RNA Mythic Edition planeswalker list was much weaker than the GRN planeswalker list. GRN had both Liliana, the Last Hope and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria as powerful, highly desirably mythics that see play in multiple eternal formats. RNA Mythic Edition is clearly aimed more at the Commander crowd, given that its heavy hitters are Tamiyo, the Moon Sage and Karn, Scion of Urza, both clearly in a lower league than the GRN chase planeswalkers.

The Numbers

If we look at the GRN Mythic Edition 'walkers market prices three weeks after release and then three months after release, we see:

GRN Mythic Walkers Market 3 Weeks After Release Market 3 Months after Release Price Change
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $139.91 $167.11 19.44%
Liliana, the Last Hope $106.82 $119.09 11.49%
Elspeth, Knight- Errant $90.00 $66.15 -26.50%
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas $45.41 $40.36 -11.12%
Vraska, Golgari Queen $65.91 $49.71 -24.58%
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker $50.21 $33.23 -33.82%
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $43.83 $38.50 -12.16%
Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast $31.78 $26.39 -16.96%
Average -11.78%
Average Negative -20.86%

Honestly, this doesn't bode well for the RNA Walkers. As the average price drop after three months was almost 12 percent (from their current going rate). If we eliminate the two higher-tier walkers, the average drop is almost 21 percent.

Now, we aren't even at the three-weeks-released mark for the RNA 'walkers, and there was a lot of variances the first few weeks after the GRN Mythic Edition was released, so we can't currently compare them 1:1. However, the GRN distribution was also more spaced out and there were a lot of issues with initial sales from the Hasbro website. The RNA release was considerably smoother.

If we do assume that the RNA walker prices have somewhat stabilized, then we likely can expect a continued downward trend for awhile.

RNA Mythic Walkers Current Price Expected Price Assuming 21% Drop
Ajani, Mentor of Heros $28.94 $22.86
Dack Fayden $52.14 $41.19
Domri, Chaos Bringer $21.79 $17.21
Jaya Ballard $18.89 $14.92
Karn, Scion of Urza $61.11 $48.28
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $21.75 $17.18
Sorin Markov $22.82 $18.03
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $52.12 $41.17
Total $279.56 $220.85

Since the product MSRP is $250, this means that most of us who purchased the RNA Mythic Edition and weren't able to unload the planeswalkers as soon as we got them will likely not make much profit on this transaction. It is important to remember that each Mythic Edition did come with 24 packs of cards as well, so if you factor in those, it looks a bit brighter.

This also assumes that we see the same continued price drop as GRN. I actually believe that the fact that so many of them are starting off much lower than the GRN Mythic Edition 'walkers means we will likely see a lower overall percentage drop, as many have plummeted considerably from their very initial price points already.

Lessons Learned

  1. Product demand for the RNA Mythic Edition was clearly much lower than the GRN version. When GRN released, it very quickly sold out on Hasbro's website, and even the ones offered by Channel Fireball at GPs mostly sold out very quickly. The RNA Mythics being offered on eBay actually allowed us to track their sales velocity thanks to eBay's default "sold" information (special thanks to QS's own poppu_mtg for the below graphic). You can see below that they sold very quickly initially but demand quickly petered out. Now it is important to note that this product released at awkward times for both European and Asian customers, however, import taxes and costs would make them much more expensive than for US-based customers. 
  2. A lot of people have stated these products were "slam dunks" when it came to profits based heavily off of the profitability of GRN Mythic Edition. Some of us warned that the weaker power level of the planeswalkers in this set would likely mean lower profits, however, very few expected it to be this bad. The lesson to take away here is to evaluate the cards included in these sets moving forward instead of simply assuming they will all be profitable.
  3. We don't know how many GRN Mythic Editions were ultimately made and sold. However, we were able to pull the number of RNA Mythic Editions from the eBay store, though the listing has since been changed, so you can't see it. Hasbro posted 20,000 RNA Mythic Editions initially. While they are unlikely to repeat the same eBay setup that allowed us to see the quantities available next time, the lackluster sales may hint to WotC that they need to make these products more limited via a lower print run next time. If we do get to see the total number available, I will begin tracking them.
  4. There is a potential for sellers to race too quickly to a price floor on this product, as I've seen numerous sales posts on Facebook offering prices considerably below TCGplayer as people who expected profits are now desperate to recoup the money they sunk into the product. While this isn't guaranteed, it would be smart to monitor these prices and set a buy call should specific cards drop below a certain price point. The best way to determine that price point is to look at other variants of the card's prices. I would expect at least a 2-2.5x multiplier for the Mythic Edition version, so any cards whose Mythic Edition price is lower than that might be worth picking up.
  5. It's important to keep in mind that we are in the beginning of tax season and Magic card sales tend to tick up in February and March as people start getting in their tax refunds and        spending them. People tend to be more willing to make impulse buys with tax return money, as many seem to view it as a yearly "bonus," and high-dollar limited-edition foil                      planeswalkers seem like a likely impulse buy for the Magic community.

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