Welcome back, folks! In my last article, I discussed the financial outlook of the most expensive cards and other mythic rares of Modern Horizons on MTGO. This week I'm going to take a look at some of my favorite rare speculation targets. Which cards are overvalued? Which cards are undervalued? Let's dig in!
I. Speculations to Avoid
1. Force of Negation
Current Buy Price: $33.07
Force of Negation is already a Legacy and Modern staple and is the most-played card in the set. Oftentimes acting as Force of Will numbers five and six in Legacy Delver strategies and serving to check some of the brokenness in Modern, Force of Negation will continue to hold a high-value long term. I question, though, whether it can grow beyond the $30 to $35 price point it has been hovering at for the past two weeks. It is possible, but I wouldn't want to tie up so much capital in a card just as likely to go down to $25 as to go up to $40.
At best this is a spec you should unload before October when Medwin brings the card to a treasure chest near you. I think it's fine to own a playset of it, but I wouldn't be speculating on it.
2. Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis
Current Buy Price of Altar of Dementia: $2.77
Current Buy Price of Hogaak: $4.33
You know why. Don't get caught holding these cards. The prices of both are already depressed due to an expectation that the deck will get nerfed, and I'm confident that expectation will become reality. Modern Horizons was a great set, but one thing absent I hoped it would contain was a toned down version of Faithless Looting. Maybe we'll get one soon.
3. Crashing Footfalls
Current Buy Price: $0.93
There aren't many rares and mythics from Modern Horizons that I think could plummet in price, but Crashing Footfalls is one of them. Many people are experimenting with the card in Legacy and Modern in Free Spells shells. If the card ultimately doesn't pan out, it will likely be worth a quarter. If it does, I don't think its price will be all that much higher than where it currently is. This is a card I want to own a playset of if I'm playing with it, but it's not a card I want to invest in.
II. Safer Speculation Targets
1. The Canopy Lands
Current Buy Prices: $4.12 -- $4.84
Probably the most obvious investment targets in the set, these lands are sure to go up in price over time as long as they aren't included in the Fall treasure chest update at a frequency higher than 6. These lands are great and will be used from now until the end of time. Expect them to settle between $10-$15, with Sunbaked Cayon commanding a slight premium due to Red and White traditionally being the weakest card advantage colors.
2. Archmage's Charm
Current Buy Price: $0.91
Archmage's Charm is one of those sneakily good spec targets that flies under the radar of most traditional MTG Finance discourse because it's not sexy and wouldn't be a good spec target in paper. It is, however, (i) in the best color, (ii) versatile, and (iii) has a third mode that is back-breaking against some popular cards and decks. I don't expect this card to become a breakout sensation, but its power will likely mean it commands a price of at least $2.00 sometime in the nearish future.
3. Force of Vigor
Current Buy Price: $3.02
During spoiler season I thought that Force of Vigor would see more play in Modern than any other card in Modern Horizons. Obviously, I was wrong, but some of the reason for that is that the Hogaak menace has pushed out some of the decks that Force of Vigor was meant to keep in check. Force of Vigor is still seeing play anyway in a variety of decks, and I expect that to increase if the Hogaak decks get nerfed. It's hard to imagine Force of Vigor being less than a $5 card, so this is one I'll likely be investing in. It's too potent a tool.
III. Riskier Speculation Targets
1. Force of Rage
...Just kidding! Just kidding!
I still can't believe this card got printed.
1. Goblin Engineer
Current buy price: $1.44
Goblin Engineer is a very powerful card, capable of putting artifacts like God-Pharaoh's Gift into the graveyard, and retrieving cards like Ensnaring Bridge from the graveyard. Its price is a bit high for my liking right now, but that's largely because it is already seeing experimental play in a variety of decks and archetypes. From a financier's perspective, this card is somewhat similar to Archmage's Charm, except that it has a lower floor and a higher ceiling. Likely a risk I'll be taking though, especially if it goes below $1.00 again.
2. Pashalik Mons
Current Buy Price: $0.06
Goblin Ringleader is coming to Modern in a few short weeks, and that might be the shot in the arm that pushes Goblins into tier one or tier two territory in Modern. Pashalik is at bulk pricing now, and even though it might not work out now, it could work out in the future and skyrocket in price.
3. Hall of Heliod's Generosity
Current Buy Price: $0.08
Hall of Heliod's Generosity is definitely a longshot, but at bulk pricing, I don't mind swinging for the fences. The biggest problem this card has when compared with Academy Ruins is relatively straightforward; I believe MaRo has said it himself: conceptually, enchantments are more likely to be things that don't get sacrificed or used up than artifacts. With that said, you never know what will get printed in the future that will make this card see real Modern and Legacy play. We shouldn't discount the casual demand this card will have with Enchantress Commander decks either.
IV. Signing Off
Thank you for reading. Undoubtedly there are other good opportunities in this set, and just because I didn't cover something here doesn't mean that you should avoid it. The set is chock full of cards that could see Modern and Legacy play, and as a supplemental set supply for all these cards will be low (especially those that lack the demand to be put in the treasure chests in October).
My coverage of Core 2020 will mirror that of War of the Spark. Shortly after release, I will do a financial power ranking of the mythics, and then once the set approaches peak supply I will do a financial power ranking of the rares and uncommons. As always, I try to write my articles just before it's wise to act on what I'm discussing. If you have any questions, leave them in the comments below or hit me up in the QS Discord.