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banlist testing

Having finished the appetizer, it’s time for the main course: the data from my Hypergenesis test. This is the hard, quantitative data, and I’ve done statistics on them to determine the validity of the test. For the stats people out there, I do a multiple significance test, but will report the z-test here. There’s never […]

There are many old sayings about plans going awry. Even when it seems like everything lines up perfectly, there’s always a chance for something to go wrong. Throw in a global health crisis, and everything goes out the window. The shutdown seemed like the perfect time to run another banlist test. It’s been over a year […]

Last week, I unveiled the first part of my Punishing Fire test. With the data compiled and revealed, it’s time for the less-concrete part. The data is the data and speaks for itself. However, that’s not the whole story. Magic isn’t just a numbers game; there are a lot of intangibles. For instance, it’s also supposed […]

And now it’s time for everyone’s favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. With 500 matches of Jund with and without Punishing Fire under my belt, I have developed a very strong opinion on unbanning the card. Today, I will reveal the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these data are […]

The time has come to start rolling out the results of my latest foray into the Modern banlist. In the past, the return of this series was hailed with a public vote for which card I’d work on, followed by months of silence while I actually did the work. This time, extenuating circumstances dictated the […]

It is a common trap to look only to hard data when making decisions. After all, numbers are clear and unequivocal. However, they don’t tell the full story of the data. Confounding variables and intangible effects color the results and complicate the data. The data from my latest banlist test indicate that Green Sun’s Zenith […]

Finally, it’s time for everyone’s favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. After playing 500 matches with GB Elves over several months, I can finally put some data to the speculation about the impact of unbanning Green Sun’s Zenith. I will be revealing the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these […]

It’s finally time for another banlist testing report. Back in May, readers chose Green Sun’s Zenith as the next banned card to test, which I’ll just call GSZ from here on out. I’ve spent the intervening months grinding games and recording results to test its effect on Modern. This week, I’ll explain my test procedure, […]

I’ve been doing a lot of theoretical work over the past few months. With Dominaria’s release there was plenty of need—and opportunity—to explore and brew. During this process I was constantly underwhelmed by Modern’s ostensible top deck, Humans. It was a fine deck, but it didn’t really shine. As I explained last week, this left me perplexed about […]

This is the big one. It’s time to answer the question I’ve been dancing around all month: Is Bloodbraid Elf safe for Modern? Ought Wizards to rescind its banishment, to the delight of many? Or should Elf remain locked away, to the delight of many others? There have been a number of narratives running through this […]

Alright, time for the big reveal. With comment section chatter over possible unbannings increasing, it’s time for the hard data to make its own argument. I had less fun with this test than with previous efforts, mostly because I have a long and difficult history with Bloodbraid Elf. That said, the testing was comparatively easy […]

It has come to this. Time to start rolling out the results of the latest banned card test. Conducting this test has been weird for me. Having a hard deadline was actually a blessing as it helped discipline the testing period and we got done much faster than expected. However, this wasn’t a fun experience […]

I am always amazed at how often people make relatively simple tasks hard for themselves. There just seems to be something in all of us that gets suspicious whenever anything is unexpectedly easy. We are ready for conflict. We prepare for projects, lessons, and assignments to be hard. When they’re not, we don’t know what […]

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