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Insider: MTG Stock Watch Week of 9/20/14

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Welcome back, readers! It's been two weeks so that means it's time for another stock watch. Without further ado, let'd jump right in.

Penny Stocks

#1 Crackling Doom (+93.3%) - This is the first "pre-order" card that I've covered since I started this segment and normally I wouldn't want to include them because with no supply in the marketplace prices can be quite crazy. It's also very common (i.e. almost always) that pre-order prices drop and the card values show a steady slope downward as more of them enter the marketplace.

I don't really like the card going forward (especially at its current price), but it's important to note that this card, unlike most edict effects before it, actually forces your opponent to sacrifice a much more specific creature, usually their best one. This does look like a solid removal spell (with a bit of burn to the face thrown in) for the new Standard, especially against decks that rely on a few larger creatures to close out the game.

crackling doom stock

#2 The Rack (+85.2%) (Timeshifted)/ The Rack (+70.8%) (Antiquities) - These are very interesting jumps. Both the black border versions jumped dramatically, while normal white border versions barely moved. I imagine some of this might be courtesy of the 8-Rack deck we saw get a brief spotlight in Modern, but is more likely a buyout.

Unfortunately, for the buyer there are a lot of copies of The Rack out there, so it looks like they just focused on the black border ones. I honestly don't trust this one long-term, so if you got 'em, unload 'em.

the rack stock antiquities

the rack stock timeshifted

#3 Caves of Koilos (Apocalypse) (+39%) - This is another jump that's a bit surprising. People are catching on to the fact that the old pain lands, despite seeing several printings, are still relatively scarce compared to Modern day print runs--but this one showed up as a four-of in the Modern Event Deck. I realize that this jump is only of the Apocalypse version (which is the original), but it's odd that the most common of the enemy pain lands is the one that jumps.

caves of koilos stock 9_22_14

#4 Battlefield Forge (9th Edition) (+23%) - This pain land jump is a bit less surprising. Reading over the forums the past few months we've seen a lot of people agreeing that the pain lands that are most likely to jump are the ones that support aggressive color combinations (predominantly Battlefield Forge). It's a bit odd that the 9th Edition version saw the highest of the jumps and has a higher price tag than any of the other versions.

Battlefield forge stock 9_22_14

#5 Soldier of the Pantheon (+15.3%) - This one wasn't a big surprise and it's one I'd mentioned previously. This guy plays well in a heavy multi-colored Standard format like Khans and is an efficient beater with a solid ability tacked on. I expect his price to continue to trend upward, especially during the first few weeks of Khans as all kinds of new multi-color decks emerge.

soldier of the pantheon stock 9_22_14

For those interested here's the stock graph from a few weeks ago.

soldier of the pantheon stock

Blue Chip Stocks

Let's take another look at our "blue chip" stocks now.

#1 Plateau (-4.41%) - It appears that overall we're still seeing a lot of the duals trending downward from their March spike. While not true for all of them (four of the ten had positive gains or no change this week), it does appear the current price of the duals isn't sustainable.

A lot of us thought (and are still thinking) that with the reprinting of the Onslaught fetches in Khans that Legacy mana bases got a lot more affordable, which might cause an increase in demand for other Legacy staples. It might still be too early to tell, but we'll likely get a better feeling on it on the next one (after Khans product has "hit the streets").

plateau stock 9_22_14

#2 Bayou (-2.39%) - With Infect being the new king of the SCG hill it's no suprise that the ousted king (Elves) has had a slight dip in demand of one of it's two most expensive cards (the other being Gaea's Cradle). Both Elves and Shardless BUG (another driving force behind Bayou's demand) are still strong decks, as both put finishers in the last Legacy Top 8. But the rise of Infect has made UWR Miracles a better choice, and it happens to have a lot of game against Elves. Shardless BUG is a different story and is very dependent on sticking a fast Liliana.

It's also of note that since I started this series, Bayou had previously remained outside either the biggest gainers or losers category and it might simply have been its time to follow the slow downward trend on dual prices.

Bayou stock 9_22_14

#3 Volcanic Island (-2.3%) - The third dual in a row this week to continue the negative trend. Only one copy appeared in the entire SCG Top 8 in Atlanta (in the winning Miracles deck). With the previous rise of Shardless BUG, we saw a dip in the UWR Stoneforge decks. As for Sneak and Show, it can still easily put a pilot into the Top 8, but given it lives and breathes on assembling a quick combo and requires a lot of cheap cantrips to function, it has a hard time competing against an active Counterbalance.

volcanic island stock 9_22_14

#4 Tundra (+2.19%) - We've seen a resurgence in UWr Miracles recently and Tundra is the dual land of choice for this deck. It has a lot of game against combo style decks (courtesy of Counterbalance) and any "fair" creature decks thanks to a one-mana instant speed Hallowed Burial. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one continue its slight gains given the last winning deck of the SCG Open was Miracles.

tundra stock 9_22_14

#5 Wasteland (-1.86%) - Coming in at #5 is yet another declining land, though this time, not a dual. As the infect decks gain traction, the Stifle/Wasteland decks take a bit of a hit. They are good at grinding games down and limiting resources, but when your opponent has a lot of cheap creatures and interchangeable pump spells it's difficult to hold the fort down, especially when you start with half your life.

wasteland stock 9_22_14

Value Stocks

We finally come to rotation, when our old shockland mana base changes to a fetch/temple/pain land mana base. The good news is that with the fetches back in Standard, not only did the price of a lot of Legacy decks go down (to increase interest) but they are actually very good for those who invested heavily in temples.

It's also important to keep in mind that as awesome as fetches are, they still only provide one color of mana (after they've been used). They are not permanent mana fixing so to speak, and won't help you if you need double green on turn two and double black on turn three. The format is also looking to slow down a bit, which makes lands that come into play tapped far less painful, thus the temples will see even more play.

The only downside I didn't account for was the massive amount that would be in the market. Many of us simply looked at previous mana fixing trends and assumed that all temples were the same (i.e. buy a bunch of the cheapest ones and when they all go up you'll have maximized your profit). Looking at the current prices though, we see that all the Theros temples have barely budged, while the Born of the Gods ones continue to be worth 50-100% more and the Journey into Nyx ones are now sitting at 200-300% of the Theros ones.

This isn't to say that the Theros ones are a bad investment, but simply to reiterate that the first set in a block has the most cards in the marketplace and the lower price ceiling because of that. This also implies that while fetchlands will be highly sought after for both Standard and eternal formats, the sheer number that will be cracked will be quite large and we can't expect them to reach their previous values for a long long time (if ever).

Growth Stocks

Looking over our growth stocks we see quiet a few dips from the lower end product all the way to the higher end product. With the announcement of the Onslaught fetchlands in Khans the Zendikar fetchlands all dropped in value by a good 30%. This likely carried over into the drop in demand for the sealed product. The previous Zendikar data was gathered before this announcement and a 9.21% drop is pretty significant.

The other big loser is Dark Ascension, though if you review the EV from a box of Dark Ascension you'll see it's really low. It has only three cards whose average price is over $5 and all three are mythics.

The drop in Avacyn Restored could likely be linked to Disciple of Griselbrand being previewed as the next GP promo card (causing his price to drop from $27 to around $20) and as one of the three main pillars propping up the value in that set it was almost assured that the value of the sealed product would drop somewhat. Personally, I have concerns about WoTC throwing Avacyn (another of the AVR pillars) into the Commander product, which would tank her value and drop the sealed product even more.

Week of 9/22/14 Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $197.00 $203.00 $193.50 $186.00 $194.88 -3.18%
Dark Ascension $82.00 $87.00 $99.99 $99.00 $92.00 -9.91%
Avacyn Restored $128.49 $125.00 $117.50 $138.99 $127.50 -6.13%
Scars of Mirrodin $147.50 $169.00 $167.50 $189.99 $168.50 1.33%
Mirrodin Besieged $179.99 $169.95 $145.00 $167.50 $165.61 8.98%
New Phyrexia $295.00 $349.99 $338.00 $297.50 $320.12 -5.46%
Zendikar $450.00 $472.77 $499.99 $530.00 $488.19 -9.21%
Worldwake $659.99 $740.00 $621.00 $655.01 $669.00 -2.43%
Rise of the Eldrazi $510.00 $530.03 $560.00 $560.00 $540.01 -0.92%
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David Schumann

David started playing Magic in the days of Fifth Edition, with a hiatus between Judgment to Shards. He's been playing Commander since 2009 and Legacy since 2010.

View More By David Schumann

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Stock WatchTagged , , , ,

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8 thoughts on “Insider: MTG Stock Watch Week of 9/20/14

  1. Jeskai miracles is actually a good matchup for infect. Infect’s bad matchups are the non-abrupt decay delver decks – Jeskai and Temur Delver. Good analysis, nonetheless. Miracles is on the rise, but it isn’t because it’s good against infect.

    1. Perhaps we have different experiences against Infect…I play U/W/r Miracles (I’m not calling it Jeskai) and I’ve found it’s a pretty easy matchup. The fact that unlike damage based kill spells, Swords doesn’t get “countered” by increasing the toughness and Terminus can’t be countered by Vines of the Vastwood…and if you can kill their first creature and stick a counterbalance it is VERY hard for them to win…patience is the key to playing Miracles. I also play the version with Vendilion Clique (which acts as a blocker)

  2. Obviously Wasteland is going down, though I’m not sure why you say Infect is the reason. A free “spell” that blows up Inkmoth is really strong against them.

    1. I didn’t mean to imply it was because it was bad against infect…what I meant was Infect has had a good showing and run’s 0 wastelands….Also despite the fact that it kills Inkmoth Nexus infect also runs basics and trading them land for land is really only worthwhile if it’s 1) in Inkmoth Nexus or 2) you can mana screw them. But there are few decks that can operate on as few lands as Infect (RUG is the only one that comes to mind).

      1. ah. That makes way more sense. I still think that Wasteland is undervalued. It’s really hard for me to imagine playing Legacy without it. I tried on MTGO for a short while. It was awful!

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