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Welcome to another edition of the Daily Stock Watch! On today's segment, we're going to talk about a card that has been a staple for creature-based decks outside of Standard.
With a reprint of this card in the upcoming Iconic Masters, people might be expecting a drop in its price due to more supply. However, this card is the only non-creature spell in this suddenly popular Humans deck that won the most recent Star City Games Modern Open, which says a lot about its importance in keeping the band together. It's also present in decklists such as Merfolk, Hatebears and Eldrazi Aggro variants.
For reference purposes, check out this list that Collins Mullen used to take down SCG Cincinnati Modern Open.
Humans
With Aether Vial being a four-of in this deck (and the other decks that I've mentioned above), it's quite hard to imagine that its price would dip, especially if the deck starts winning more tournaments. It's also very easy to cast in a deck that has mana issues, making it the more obvious (and potent) choice over these cards:
The presence of the vial gives the deck access to all its creatures without thinking about the mana-fixing part. It also allows you to choose which ones you'd like to play first without having to guess what will come out off the top of your library if you're playing Collected Company. It's also cost-efficient at one mana, and it prevents you from having to worry about counter magic, which is often the case with Chord of Calling. And most importantly, it makes creatures like Kitesail Freebooter, Reflector Mage and our yesterday's Stock Watch spec Meddling Mage seem like they are instant-speed spells.
There are currently five printings of the vial (including that of Iconic Masters), and it's very unlikely that its value will dip in the near future. It might be wise to get a playset within the coming weeks while supplies are at its peak. It's also not a bad idea to hold on to your copies if you think that there's still room for a price spike, but that will eventually depend on how many copies will be produced by the new set, and if the deck will continue to reach the top of tournaments. It would be great to get Iconic Masters copies, primarily for authenticity purposes and supply ratio, but getting your hands on the Masterpiece version, if able, is the best way to go in my opinion.
At the moment, Star City Games is out of stock for the regular copies across all expansions at $44.99, but ChannelFireball still have some copies for the same price. There are other sites that sell the Modern Masters version in the $35 to $40 range, so if you're not really picky, you could just wait for the new set to arrive. It's projected to be in the $30 range once it's out.
As for the foil copies, I'd suggest that you stay away from them unless they're for collection purposes. If you're being practical, you could still get copies of the From the Vaults: Relic version for $40 to $45 via TCGplayer. The price range of the Darksteel foil stretches out a bit based on its condition, as it could be priced from as low as $54.99 (moderately played) up to $98.99 (near mint). Since there will be a new foil printing of it, expect this version to hold its value, along with the Masterpiece Edition: Kaladesh Inventions copies. These pretties are currently sitting at the $130 to $155 price range with fewer and fewer packs of Kaladesh being opened. If by any chance the Humans deck's success stretches out to Legacy (fingers crossed!), this could skyrocket up to north of $200. I'm not counting on it to happen, but it has already happened before.
Format Breakers
If that happens, you'd be so glad that you spun the wheel and bought the vial.
So that's it for today! Want to really keep up with all the market movement? Be sure to check in with the QS Discord channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!
With the amount of Iconic masters being printed and opened, why do you think that Vial won’t see a drop in price? I know my LGS is getting 64 boxes..which likely means we’ll get at least 3-4 playsets added to our local area. I don’t think we have 3-4 players who don’t have vials that will suddenly want them. I admit this could be more of a local thing, but I am far more pessimistic about reprint prices in masters sets (esp. non mythics).
That’s a great observation, David. Reprints in masters sets really tend to go down in value (which is the main goal of the reprint, besides from increasing supply) but I believe I mentioned that its current price is higher than that of the IMA version’s projected price. Masters sets are given out to some LGS on a limited supply (in our area at least) and I still know some people who would want their own playsets of this, so you made an excellent point of this being prolly a local thing. I’m just sharing my insight on some probable gains with projected minimal losses for those who’d like to keep their copies.