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Yum, Data!

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Hey guys,  this isn't a blog post proper, but more of a test of a new feature.  I've been keeping track of some prices lately, and I wanted to run this output by the Insiders to get some feedback.  The software behind this is still in very early prototyping.  The idea is that, at any given time, stuff is happening in the market.  We might know about it, we might not.  While we all have the good sense to check prices on cards which we know to be "hot", sometimes we just don't see a change coming.  That's where this little report comes in.  I took down some TCG Player prices in the last 5 days and did some math.  There is a lot of information out there.  When presented with "complete" information, we have to distill it down into relevant and actionable data.  This report aims to do exactly that.

I set the thresholds at Rare/Mythic for rarity and at either +$1 or +5% change within a 5 day period.  The price being evaluated was the TCG Player "mid" price.  I can just as easily evaluate the high or low, but I felt Mid had a lot of useful information "cooked in".  The low price is often skewed due to quantity issues and there's no enforcement of accuracy on high prices.  The mid is probably the most accurate data we have.  I ran the report for Standard only.  Here's what I came up with.  As you can see, there are probably some false positives (Runechanter's Pike?  ....really?)  and some definite hits (Elspeth Tirel, the Duals, Angelic Destiny).

This is the sort of thing I want to provide to my readers.  While our analysis is usually dead-on, numbers just don't lie.  With this data, you will have the benefit of our analysts' interpretations but you will also have the raw information to make your own decisions.  There are a load of things I want to add to this report, but I'm more interested in hearing what paying customers who work in this industry want.  We recently had a very pointed forum post asking for data like this, so I'm glad to know that my readers are really passionate about what we're doing.

So, whatcha think?

Scars Change Report

Run on Sun Oct 30 2011

Min Change $1 or 5%, Rares and Mythic Rares only

Copperline Gorge +5.78% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 10.29 mid: 7.91 lo: 6.29

Darkslick Shores +6.41% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 13.38 mid: 10.94 lo: 9.82

Elspeth Tirel +5.37% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 24.99 mid: 23.32 lo: 20.20

Elspeth Tirel +$1.3 within 5 days
Hi: 24.99 Mid: 23.32 Lo: 20.20

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon +5.34% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 10.29 mid: 8.70 lo: 5.70

Wurmcoil Engine +5.54% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 24.49 mid: 20.37 lo: 18.90

Wurmcoil Engine +$1.17 within 5 days
Hi: 24.49 Mid: 20.37 Lo: 18.90

Besieged Change Report

Run on Sun Oct 30 2011

Min Change $1 or 5%, Rares and Mythic Rares only

Black Sun's Zenith +8.09% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 5.25 mid: 3.68 lo: 2.84

Hero of Bladehold +10.14% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 15.74 mid: 13.08 lo: 10.50

Hero of Bladehold +$1.34 within 5 days
Hi: 15.74 Mid: 13.08 Lo: 10.50

Hero of Oxid Ridge +10.14% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 13.18 mid: 10.70 lo: 9.00

Hero of Oxid Ridge +$1.34 within 5 days
Hi: 13.18 Mid: 10.70 Lo: 9.00

Slagstorm +7.19% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 3.99 mid: 2.98 lo: 2.00

Spine of Ish Sah +7.19% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 1.04 mid: 0.37 lo: 0.13

Sword of Feast and Famine +$1.81 within 5 days
Hi: 39.99 Mid: 35.83 Lo: 32.35

Thrun, the Last Troll +13.97% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 14.95 mid: 11.60 lo: 8.63

Thrun, the Last Troll +$1.76 within 5 days
Hi: 14.95 Mid: 11.60 Lo: 8.63

Phyrexia Change Report

Run on Sun Oct 30 2011

Min Change $1 or 5%, Rares and Mythic Rares only

Lashwrithe +25.23% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 4.19 mid: 2.11 lo: 1.09

Innistrad Change Report

Run on Sun Oct 30 2011

Min Change $1 or 5%, Rares and Mythic Rares only

Blasphemous Act +6.67% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 1.04 mid: 0.60 lo: 0.23

Devil's Play +8.64% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 2.56 mid: 0.81 lo: 0.25

Endless Ranks of the Dead +10.56% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 3.14 mid: 1.58 lo: 0.83

Runechanter's Pike +6.67% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 1.04 mid: 0.48 lo: 0.17

2012 Change Report

Run on Sun Oct 30 2011

Min Change $1 or 5%, Rares and Mythic Rares only

Angelic Destiny +10.03% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 13.18 mid: 11.08 lo: 8.95

Angelic Destiny +$1.1 within 5 days
Hi: 13.18 Mid: 11.08 Lo: 8.95

Archon of Justice +27.42% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 8.48 mid: 0.64 lo: 0.23

Drowned Catacomb +7.64% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 4.38 mid: 3.11 lo: 2.25

Druidic Satchel +6.02% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 3.99 mid: 1.39 lo: 0.44

Garruk, Primal Hunter +$1.21 within 5 days
Hi: 39.99 Mid: 36.41 Lo: 31.00

Rootbound Crag +8.56% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 3.14 mid: 1.82 lo: 1.00

Sorin Markov +19.66% within 5 days
Current quotes - hi: 11.87 mid: 6.64 lo: 4.85

Sorin Markov +$1.26 within 5 days
Hi: 11.87 Mid: 6.64 Lo: 4.85

Kelly Reid

Founder & Product Manager

View More By Kelly Reid

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, QS Blogs

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5 thoughts on “Yum, Data!

  1. Who doesn't love some data? 🙂

    I do believe the amount of samples and the "high and low" prices are important to take into account as well, as they might have influenced the mid price and hence indeed leading to false positives.

    Example, Runechanter’s Pike : 6.67% increase means that the mid was 0.45 (as now it's 0.48), so only a 0.03 increase. If you look to the high value (1.04) this increase can easily be influenced by a out of range high value.
    Imaging quantity last week being 20 at average = 0.45 ( total = 9.00), compared to 19 at 0.45 and one with high price = 1.04 (total = 19*0.45+1.04 = 9.59 ~ 0.48)

    I don't know if the quantities were actually "20", but the example shows that a small peak (or bottom) can have impact on the mid price. This is definitely the case for small prices.

    It might be better to only consider a +10% increase when check < $1 cards or something.

    But, thumbs up! Really looking forward to what QS is going to offer in the near future…

    Will this kind of data be made available in the future (Data-Centric Content) ?
    Will we be able to see all card prices (including prices going down)?
    It really looks like BLP, isn't it? How do you guys seeing this all come together?

  2. This is EXACTLY the sort of thing that could be useful to me! Of course there's the likelihood that I'd still be sold out at a lower-than-average market price by the time I get the info, but it would still be good to get.

    If this can be automated somehow so that there isn't a need for someone to spend hours on it, I would love to see this sort of thing for all of MTG, not just Standard.

    Also – I would like to see cards that have fallen as well (the mirror of my "sold out at too low a price" problem is "sitting on cards at too high of a price"). This is especially important for cards that have just rotated out of Standard, so would not be caught in your Standard-only checking.

    As for reporting format – it's a little bit confusing at first to see a card get listed twice (since it went up over >$1 AND more than 5% – like with Angelic Destiny in this sample set). While it is good to see that this card hit both criteria, could that not be combined in one card listing, to whit:

    Angelic Destiny +$1.1 (+10.03%) within 5 days
    Current quotes – hi: 13.18 mid: 11.08 lo: 8.95

    To sum up: as presented it would definitely be useful. With a few modifications it could become EXTREMELY useful.

    As for the weekly automated email – GO FOR IT! That's not often enough to qualify as Spam IMHO. Although there should be an opt-out option for that (perhaps a separate mailing list from your "all premium subscribers" list? I know maintaining multiple email lists can be a pain…)

  3. Yeah, remember guys, I'm a writer with about 3 months functional experience in PHP, and i'm writing all this from scratch. Thanks for the feedback. I'll keep plugging away.

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