We know that the drafting of MM is not over yet, but as we are writing now, there are only 250 players in the release queue. It means that the biggest part of the MM online event is now behind us. This week we want to go over the short-term repercussions and try to predict what the next move should be from there on.
The “Collateral Damage”
For sure, MM drafts had an impact on the reprinted cards themselves. What about the other cards that see a lot of play in Modern? Remember that people who just got their new set of Tarmogoyf will want to play with them now!
First of all, look at the index of the five fetchlands from Zendikar. They have now reached a new ceiling. We predicted a while back that $10 for both Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn was a floor price, rather than a ceiling price.
Take a look at Verdant Catacombs, which sells for 16 on mtgotraders. Does green and black ring a bell to you? Demand for the fetchlands has increased and prices are possibly a little inflated. We are pretty sure that the prices will go down a bit until next Modern's season.
If you're holding fetchlands, it looks like it is time to unload. We will be on the lookout when the price comes back to normal. We will probably go deep on these when the timing feels right, even though the cost to acquire them is much higher than during the previous seasons.
The card is now worth 6.67! Almost 1 tix above its previous in-season ceiling! It has never reached such a high price since it rotated out of Standard. This is another card we have to follow carefully and that we might go deep on when the time is right, probably by the fall. For now, if you don’t use them, it might be time to unload before M14's release.
Underground Sea is now almost 41 which is an all-time high. Bayou also reached a new ceiling of 26.30. Liliana of the Veil has gained some value, reaching 46 during the release despite the upcoming rotation. Wasteland is now almost 66.
Many players have not yet realized how much movement there has been lately, and it’s time to capitalize on that. We might have a good window with M14's release, since people will need money.
A Special Case: Thoughtseize
As we are talking now, this card is worth 24.32 but has reached 34 just after the confirmation that it was not reprinted in MM. Now that Duress has been confirmed in M14, there are good chances that Thoughtseize will be for another set. When it will be confirmed, the card might gain a few tix again. We are watching this card closely and we will try to put something on the forum as soon as we decide to move on this spec.
The Return of Standard
Now that people have gotten their draft fix, Standard is gaining in popularity again.
You need only look at the movers and shakers for this week to confirm this. Thundermaw Hellkite has gained 6 tix this week alone, Sphinx's Revelation gained 5 and Voice of Resurgence gained a little more than 4 tix.
Just as a reminder, we are now approaching the two Standard PTQs that will be held in July (July 14th and July 21st). That means it’s time to speculate on Standard!
Here are some cards we are looking for and that we think might rebound:
Huntmaster of the Fells
This card has reached its bottom in the past two weeks. Still, the card is a four-of in the Miami Grand Prix winning deck (piloted by Reid Duke) and it sees some plays in Modern Jund lists too. You can still pick some up at six on the market and since it’s a mythic from a set not much drafted, if it comes back in Standard, it could potentially see some wide price variations.
As a side note, Reid Duke is a real beast! The guy just won the Player of the Year award last year on MTGO and since he decided to play paper Magic, he is winning almost every tournament he attends.
Olivia is a three-of in the same deck mentioned above and she was a complete all-star during the final. She is really good versus Reanimator or against all types of midrange strategies. Watch this card as she might see one last big price jump before rotation.
Restoration Angel and Thragtusk
Yeah, we thought they were good specs before release, but now we are pretty sure they'll see a bump in price with the new vigor Standard should gain in the next 3-4 weeks.
Thragtusk is still the most played creature in Standard right now and Restoration Angel is the fourth. When people start practicing for Standard PTQs again, the demand will put pressure on the price of both cards.
If you bought them earlier, just like us, keep them and we might be able to cut a lot on the loss. If you have not yet made a move, it might be time. We believe Thragtusk is a safer move here. Try to get them around 4.5-5. We think it might reach the 7-8 range again.
That's it for this week. Feel free to comment!