We’ve seen the breakout decks. Sigmund wrote a nice article on Monday breaking down the movement from the Pro Tour, and it’s pretty clear how to handle that movement at this point.
But what’s next?
Before I go any further, let’s talk about how awesome the Pro Tour was. Watching Modern on the “big screen” was really cool since it’s my favorite format. And while the decks that did well weren’t super exciting, I’m also not sure how representative of the format they really are.
After all, a room full of high-level pros is more likely to pick up a skill-testing deck like RWU than a room full of PTQ players, but even with the Top 8 as loaded as it was with one color combination, the field was really open. Even my pet deck, Merfolk, had three of its eight players go 6-3 or better. Not bad.
But we’ve seen the Pro Tour movement already, and I don’t need to recount it here. Instead, let’s figure out what’s coming next. First, I’ll start by briefly looking at the picks I made a week before the PT and see how they’ve done so far.
Available for around $15 when I made the call, the cheapest Geists you’ll find now are now $20, and the mid price is up to $25. These are going to continue to trend upward to $30-35 in-season.
$21 TCGMid two weeks ago, it’s now up to $33 Mid and rising. I didn’t expect this to move so quickly, but $30-35 does seem like a real price from here on out.
$5-6 when I made the call, now climbing over $7. Going to be an easy $10 in-season.
Almost $8 when I made the call, now $10 and rising. My call of $12-15 in-season looks about right.
$17 when I talked about it, over $20 now, and I expect this to settle at around $25 in-season.
The Next Wave
Those were the ones I was most confident in, and they moved as expected. So what’s next?
Well, we can learn a lot from the decklists that did 6-3 or better.
From that, we see that Razorverge Thicket had a great weekend, as did Blackcleave Cliffs. Given current prices, the obvious play is Thicket. Really, I like all the Scars lands, but these two are far above the rest right now.
This may be just a fluke of this tournament, but it illustrates a good point: Innistrad lands are good and played a fair amount in Modern, especially this one. $5 now, and probably not a ton of upside, but worth grabbing for sure.
I’ve talked about him before, and my feelings have only solidified having seen the Top 8. Look at those RWU decks and tell me how they handle a Thrun.
Spoilers: They don’t. I know this guy costs a million mana in Modern, but the effect is undeniable. The RWU decks aren’t even playing Supreme Verdict anymore, which means you don’t need to leave up mana for regeneration, and Wrath of God is kind of a distant memory at this point.
In short, the format seems primed for Thrun to make an impact. And, look at it this way, as Doug pointed out in the forums, what is there to bring his price down? It’s an older mythic and the downside is really low.
From a card with a ton of upside to one with considerably less. Township isn’t going to become a $10 card overnight, but it saw a ton of play at the Pro Tour and has proven itself to be the most powerful of the Innistrad utility lands. This will continue to move toward $5, so grab them for dollar-rare status while you can.
This is another slow gainer, but it’s another solid bet. It saw a ton of play at the Pro Tour and likely isn’t being reprinted any time soon since it was just in Modern Masters. I expect this to continue to climb and likely push $6-8 in-season.
I know this isn’t really a “spec,” but honestly stuff like Path to Exile, Celestial Colonnade, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, Melira, Sylvok Outcast, Primeval Titan, Aether Vial and the like will all continue to rise, even if they don’t draw the headlines.
One more thing, before I go…
The contents of Jace vs. Vraska have been spoiled, and the biggest news is that Remand is in it. That will bring the price down some but I don’t think it nukes it. It will probably fall from $17 to $10 or so and rebound to $12-13 in-season, based off previous cards in these decks.
Abrupt Decay is one that can actually see Modern play, so it’s a solid pickup, but Deathrite still has the downward pressure from the ban. The beautiful thing about both these Eternal staples is that neither sees a ton of play in Standard. That means rotation won’t decimate their prices. With that in mind, I like both as a pickup.
Thanks for reading,