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It Might As Well Be You

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I spent the entire last week or so under the impression that Tropical Island was $300. It's not.

Some of the other blue duals spiked, so I assumed a card that was in the land base of RUG Delver and BUG, two of the most played decks in Legacy, went up, too.

What happens when you assume?



 

Either Volcanic Island will go back to $150, or Tropical Island will be $300 soon. What do you think?

trop

 

trop

 

trop

 

Spend $100k? Is that hyperbole or are we looking at guaranteed free money here? All I know is that I spent longer than I should have just assuming that Tropical Island had already gone up. You will double up buying at its current price, and someone is going to do it. The mere act of beginning to buy these up is going to make the price go up, and with no reprint possible, it seems like the price will never go down.

I have always been big on lands and now it no different. I am cashing in on the Ancient Tombs I got at $10 and Trop looks like the perfect place to put that money.

So with some in the finance community considering mortgaging their house to double up on Dual lands, are you in? Someone is going to double their money buying $150 Tropical Islands. Someone is going to more than double up on Bayou. I don't need to "pump" the cards - they're pumped. This is going to happen. It might as well be you who makes the money.



Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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32 thoughts on “It Might As Well Be You

  1. Funny I just ordered 3 nm ones. I have been mulling this exact question over and over in my mind. I think that the reason for Dual Land spikes is that people are trading in their Modern fetches, Snapcasters, Cryptics, etc to get the elusive Duals. I expect this behavior to do one of 2 things if it continues. Either the Duals will continue to rise (and Power with them). Or Modern staples will decrease in value.

  2. Thanks for this. I actually saw some of that conversation on twitter while I was on the train, but I didn’t have a chance to really look at it properly. You’re not alone though, I was also under the impression that tropical was in the same price league as volcanic, then when I saw this on twitter I thought “Damn. A trop was all I needed in terms of duals for my Aluren deck. Guess I missed the chance to get one pre-spike.”

    Saw this, realized that they actually were still in the $150 range, so I managed to get one from a supplier who I know is usually quite harsh with their grading (I’ve ordered cards where I’ve mixed NM and EX of the same card, and when I’ve got the cards I can’t tell which one is the EX) for just under $150. So in terms of duals, I’m now set. Now, onto the imperial recruiters.

  3. These articles are what sets quietspeculation apart from every other site. Write the article when it’s relevant, even if that’s Sunday night.

        1. If you’re going to come out and say “this shouldn’t exist”, you should at least quantify it with more than “it sends the wrong message”. What message? Why is it wrong? What message should be sent?

          1. Article comes off telling all of these people to go buy dual lands at retail, thinking they will cause a spike, when in fact no one that will read this has that kind of bankroll to seriously impact the market.

            And Jason, really? Why not act a bit more mature, or is that not in your range?

            1. >Article comes off telling all of these people to go buy dual lands at retail, thinking they will cause a spike,

              That is not true at all. This article will not cause a \”spike\”. The fact that the card is the wrong price and everyone knows it and people are on twitter talking about how many thousands of dollars they are going to spend is going to cause the price correction. You do know the difference between a spike and a price correction?

              >when in fact no one that will read this has that kind of bankroll to seriously impact the market.

              Good! I hope my readers can buy some copies and not have to worry about the card doubling before they can get in. I don\’t want the card to double yet.

              >And Jason, really? Why not act a bit more mature, or is that not in your range?

              Why not act a bit more intelligent?

              1. You talk about some one buying up all of the Tropicals and you title your article “It might as Well Be You”….if that doesn’t prove my point that you are encouraging this action, whether a spike happens or not, you might be the one that needs some help on the intelligence front…

                1. I’m with Stu here. Taking out a $100,000 loan, for example, would be very, very, very bad. It would make the price skyrocket, and in turn, raise inaccessibility. It’s hard to believe that anyone in good conscience would do that.

                  1. Listen to me very carefully. People are going to buy these cards. This article has nothing to do with that. I don\’t write this, they will still do it. Tropical Island will be a $300 card whether I write this or not. It doesn\’t matter if you condone it or not, the card is due for a price correction. If you guys think I am pumping the card or conding the buying behavior or anything like that, you really don\’t understand what is going on.

                    1. You guys are jumping way too hard on Jason for stating the obvious….Enough said honestly.

          2. Anyway, it’s 100% a hype article. (I’m not interested in debating the difference between ‘hype’ and ‘pump’.) It encourages the perception that MTG finance is about buyouts and it encourages people to bid up and up and up, contributing to the frenzy.

            1. Why can’t jason write about a card having potential to spike without getting accused of hyping and pump dumping? Cards spike regardless of whether or not there is any hype about them in finance community. I could name plenty of examples. There is a misconception that because people talk about cards spiking, or predict a spike that they’re causing the spikes, and it’s just not true. Supply and demand is what regulates card price, not tweets or podcasts or threads on reddit. It’s gotten to the point where you can’t even talk about spiking cards on reddit anymore which is ridiculous. What’s the point of a site called quiet speculation if you can’t even speculate without getting accused of something sinister.

        1. Why can’t jason write about a card having potential to spike without getting accused of hyping and pump dumping? Cards spike regardless of whether or not there is any hype about them in finance community. I could name plenty of examples. There is a misconception that because people talk about cards spiking, or predict a spike that they’re causing the spikes, and it’s just not true. Supply and demand is what regulates card price, not tweets or podcasts or threads on reddit. It’s gotten to the point where you can’t even talk about spiking cards on reddit anymore which is ridiculous. What’s the point of a speculation community if you can’t even speculate on cards without getting accused of doing something sinister.

        2. > And, if you thought some one might say that, why not actually take the time to explain why it is not

          I am reminded of the guy who wrote a comment on one of my mtgheadquarters articles, accusing me of writing about the recent spike of Tarmogoyf to $200 of trying to \”pump\” Tarmogoyf so I could make money.That\’s right- I \”pumped\” goyf by writing about its price spike after it happened. I don\’t have the time or the crayons to explain how dumb that is. The same thing applies here. If you really think this is a pump article, I doubt you\’ll be able to grasp a counterargument.

  4. Why can’t jason write about a card having potential to spike without getting accused of hyping and pump dumping? Cards spike regardless of whether or not there is any hype about them in finance community. I could name plenty of examples. There is a misconception that because people talk about cards spiking, or predict a spike that they’re causing the spikes, and it’s just not true. Supply and demand is what regulates card price, not tweets or podcasts or threads on reddit. It’s gotten to the point where you can’t even talk about spiking cards on reddit anymore which is ridiculous. What’s the point of a speculation community if you can’t even speculate on cards without getting accused of doing something sinister.

      1. Jerk, I was planning to ship ABU some cards for credit and use credit to acquire Duals. You couldn’t wait a few days to publish this 😛

        For the record: I agree Trop is underpriced. I don’t have the bankroll to make a move on it (cash of that magnitude goes into stocks, not cardboard). I also feel this article is a bit too “hype” and not enough “speculate”.

        1. It is too late to speculate, Sig. People are already moving. I do not understand how you can equate me reporting on people moving on the card and me hyping the card. I do not give a crap if Trop goes up or not, I just know it will.

          1. Don’t take the interwebs personally, Jason. This article is exactly the kind of thing people like me (shop owners, large volume dealers, and financiers) visit this page for. It is articles like this, on the free side, which inspired me to subscribe to paid content. Keep up the good work. I had already bought some trops by the time I read this. But this solidified the purchase in my mind as a good call.

            To all the angry people posting against this article, we don’t need you. We don’t need your attitude. If you don’t want to know about the hype, don’t come here to read. And certainly don’t waste your time trolling the Likes of Jason. You are lucky he spent time responding to your comments, let alone informing this small community of this impending correction.

            Speculators aren’t driving up the prices. The expanding player base is. As newer cards are going up, dealers get an influx of people trading these cards for Dual Lands and Moxen. The demand for the Modern cards is still growing, thus the Vendillion Cliques/Goyfs are still selling. When a card gets too low on stock, retailers are forced to raise prices. The amount of money required to cause a spike is absurd. Especially when the card you are talking about is already $100+.

  5. IF you were just dispassionately reporting, no one would have batted an eye. But instead you’re stoking the fires, encouraging the feeding frenzy, and increasing the pressure on people to buy more, buy faster. The window is closing (buy soon), you don’t want to be left out do ya (buy now), you wanna be one of the smart guys dontcha (buy faster). Better buy today and not tomorrow, better buy this morning and not this afternoon.

    THAT is why this article is bad. You’re doing a lot more than just reporting here, and you’re being a disingenuous little shit when you insist otherwise.

      1. Just because you have 0 copies doesn’t make qed2 wrong. I would rather these kinds of articles not exist. I consider this a “hype” article. I wish you did too.

        All of the speculation is drastically affecting prices in the market and making accessibility of eternal formats harder. A lot of the demand comes from speculators and not players, and that in turn, makes players want to grab cards sooner, before they “spike”. In this article, you don’t make a case on why the card is played. You mention it is in RUG Delver, but how much play does that see, now that Delver has several popular varieties, including UWR, which doesn’t play Trop? These issues were not discussed in the article and should have been discussed.

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