It’s a brave new world, folks. If you aren’t Cruising, you aren’t doing it right. If you’re not Digging Legacy-Lite, you’re behind the times.

At least, that’s how Modern seems these days. Even the best Birthing Pod players in the world are putting down the Meliras because it’s just worse than casting Treasure Cruise and playing a nearly-identical port of Blue-Red Delver from Legacy.

I truly hope this does not continue, and I would like to see both Cruise and Jeskai Ascendancy banned. If not Ascendancy, I feel like Cruise at least needs to go. Casting Dig Through Time feels like a solid payoff for getting to that point of the game, much like Revelation. Cruise? It’s just not fair. And Ascendancy is far too much like Eggs to last for long.

That’s the end of the rant. I promise there’s a point, though.

What this drove home for me is just how much like Legacy Modern is becoming. That means similar decks, similar beliefs in the “pick a deck and stick with it.” Similar levels of commitment to an “Eternal” format.

And that brings me to foils.

Foiled Again

We’ve seen some foils go crazy recently. Young Pyromancer did it, but that was at least Legacy-playable.

How about Flames of the Blood Hand? While non-foil versions went up 400 percent or so recently, the foils actually moved about 1000 percent upward, from $2 to $20. That’s absurd, right?

Maybe not. We’ve been waiting for Modern to finally reach that point that Legacy has been at for a long time, where people are ready to “pimp” their decks. And we’ve certainly seen some foils go crazy, even of small sideboard cards, rarity be damned. $15 foil Smash to Smithereens, anyone? And the crazy part is, even that may be underpriced, since it’s at just 4x the non-foil price.

Of course, the one question impossible to answer is “what is the right multiplier?” We assume 2x for regular foils. We assume a much higher amount for Commander and Legacy playables. Modern will fall somewhere in between, but I guarantee over time it will trend closer to Legacy than to Standard. When looking at this, you also have to immediately rule out some cards due to alternate printings, like the several “pimp” versions of Lightning Bolt, Modern’s most-played card.

The truth is, it’s hard to give a blanket statement other than “foils will go up, folks” for every card in Modern. But there is something I can do: Find the next Smash to Smithereens, which is up 400% in the last six months. Moreover, I went in search of what could be the next foil spike in Modern from these cards that people ignored for so long as “just commons and uncommons,” as I feel that’s where the most opportunity exists because people simply overlook these so easily.

Here’s what I’ve come up with.

Path to Exile

You know, we take for granted that Path will just always be a $5 card. After all, it’s been printed so many times, why wouldn’t it be?

Well, guess what? Only two of its six regular printings come in foil (Conflux, Modern Masters). Archenemy, Event Decks, Duel Decks, Commander? No foils.

And the foil price isn’t even 2x.

Every version of non-foil Path is nearly $6. Foils from those two sets can be found for $10.

“But what about the promo, aren’t you forgetting that?” – someone, somewhere.

No, I’m not. It’s sitting at $11.

Foil Goremand is about 350% more than the non-foil, or 3.5x. Foil Spell Pierce is an absurd 20x ($40 to $2, and the non-foil is steadily climbing). Inquisition of Kozilek is 5x ($30 to $6). Even foil Serum Visions is about 3.5x and Flame Slash foil is $10, a 20x multiplier. And foil Path—the fourth-most played card in Modern, according to MTGStocks—isn’t even 2x?

You tell me what that means.

Relic of Progenitus

Relic comes in at 35th on MTGStocks’ list, and even with multiple printings, again only two have foils: Shards of Alara and Modern Masters.

And the Shards version, which is about $1.50 for a regular copy, is merely $3.50 for a foil. Not only is this a Modern card, it’s also a pretty common Commander inclusion. Lots to like here too.

Spell Snare

The Dissension foil isn’t too surprising; $3.50 for a regular copy and $25 for a foil. That’s a something like a 7x multiplier, and is one of the higher ones on this list.

But how about the Modern Masters version?

Just $10 to the $3.50 cost of the non-foil.

Look, I get that people who foil want the “best” version. I do, too. But there’s something to be said for the limited print run of the first Modern Masters product, and at some point people will also pick up the cheaper foil to accomplish their goal. For that reason, I don’t hate anything out of Modern Masters (Lightning Helix also sits at 3x multiplier), even if I don’t love them when there are better targets.

Master of the Pearl Trident

I’m breaking my “no-Rares” rule a little, but only because you know I had to check on Merfolk, my favorite deck (and the only one I have foiled).

Of all the major Merfolk cards that don’t have either an FNM promo (Reejery), FTV foil (Vial), or a case where the “normal” foil isn’t the obvious best play (Lord of Atlantis, with a 2x Time Spiral muliplier, but also has the super-rare 7ED foil and of course Alpha and Beta printings), Master of the Pearl Trident is the only one without a 3x multiplier or more.

At $4 for the regular version and $9.50 for the foil, there’s definitely some room to grow here, given this has only one printing.

Speaking of Merfolk, Spreading Seas surprisingly has an 18x multiplier ($.50 to $9). What’s interesting here is that I suspect the foil may be leading the regular copy, which has more than tripled in the past year and could easily be the next $2-3 common. Don’t miss these lying around. Spell Pierce, which we discussed earlier, was once in this boat, as was Serum Visions.

Another one on that track? Vapor Snag, which is rapidly approaching $1 Common status. $6.50 for a foil isn’t cheap, but if these Delver decks stick around for the foreseeable future, these won’t be cheaper anytime soon.

Shattering Spree

$3.50 for a regular and $9.50 for a foil. Given what we’ve seen so far, this seems to be in the middle of the pack with a multiplier just under 3x. Not a bad target, but also more fringe-played than some of the others.

Creeping Corrosion

Again breaking the rule, but for a good reason. While looking up Shatterstorm, which I bet you didn’t know went to $3.50 a regular copy and $17 per foil in 2014, I decided to check its analogue in green.

90 cents in non-foil, a tripling since January. Foils have “spiked” from $1.50 to nearly $3. That’s a card with momentum in both versions, and a year from now I wouldn’t be surprised to see $3 Corrosions with $10 foils. Seems like a solid if unexciting target.

Sylvan Scrying

$3 for a regular copy and $9 for a foil, in both printings. 3x multiplier again, which feels like the line we’re looking at, and I’m confident calling anything under that target a good buy. As is, this is on the line but not one I’m super excited about.

Thought Scour

A recent inclusion, and one that will continue to grow in popularity if nothing is banned. 30 seconds from the non-foil from Dark Ascension, and $3 for the foil.

Not an exciting target, and the multiplier doesn’t do much good since it’s so cheap in the first place, but if Cruising remains legal this will see movement.

Vandalblast

Believe it or not, this popped up a few times in my search. 20 cents for a regular and $2 for a foil, with some upward momentum. Hard to believe something from a recent set like Return to Ravnica has too much upside, but people need their Affinity hate. Worth mentioning.

Forked Bolt

50 cents for a regular and $5 for a foil. I think non-foils may actually be a better play here, since this card is so hugely important with all the Cruising Delver decks going around. I believe that deck is that good, to be format-warping, and stuff like this is huge in that metagame. Same with $2 foil Pillar of Flame and $1 promo Pillars.

Suppression Field

This is in the midst of a little spike, from 50 cents to $2. Foils sit at $8. I bring this up not because I believe the foils to be such a great buy (though momentum is certainly a thing), but because my research this week really reinforces my belief that Modern is in the beginnings of another spike that will explode with Modern Masters 2 next summer, assuming that happens.

Yes, things in that set will lose value, but if you’re in on the “Modern index,” you’re going to win. Let’s just hope Cruise gets banned, because it is quite literally everywhere right now.

Gut Shot

Know what else is good in a stupid world full of Cruising Delvers?

Gut Shot. 50 cents for regulars and $2.50 for foils. In a world built on Tempo and x/1s, this reigns supreme.

Foiling Away

I’m not usually a huge foil guy, so this was a pretty educating research topic for me. I’m also extremely pleased with my results, and some of these, like Path, Relic and Thought Scour, have quickly made their way onto my radar.

What do you guys think? Anything I missed? Is there a “right” multiplier for Modern? Will Cruise get banned?

We’ll find out the answer to all of those questions in the next 12 months, I promise you that. 2015 is going to be an exciting year for Modern.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter