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Insider: MTGO Market Report for July 15th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of July 13th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

MTGOPRICE

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

With RTR sets going out of stock in the MTGO store at the end of June, the price floor provided by redemption has been removed for this set.

The best example to demonstrate this effect on the price of junk mythic rares is Utvara Hellkite. In the last week of June it was 5.5 tix but it is now available for 4 tix or less. This recent weakness can only be explained by the end of redemption for this set. Expect to see prices on this card and other junk mythic rares from RTR to continue to head lower over time.

GTC continues to be available for redemption, and with TCG Mid prices on this set up by over 3% over the last month, redeemers are finding this set attractively priced. With no Modern staples in the mythic rare slot, a downturn in interest for that format will be felt primarily in the price of the five shocklands. Lower prices on these staples will shift value to the mythic rares. Although speculators should be getting liquid in preparation for the release of ORI, higher prices on cards like Lazav, Dimir Mastermind and Lord of the Void are anticipated.

M14 is in a small holding pattern at the moment until results from Modern with ORI start trickling in. The pending addition of Goblin Piledriver to Modern has sparked interest in Mutavault in both paper and on MTGO, but the proof of the efficacy of a goblin tribal deck in that format is not yet evident. It doesn't have to be a Tier 1 deck, but if goblins ends up being playable, look for further price increases in M14 mythic rares.

The one interesting card from DGM is Voice of Resurgence, and it's back up into the mid 20s in the last two weeks. Current prices are not attractive for a re-entry into this card, but if it fell down into the low 20s it would be time to establish a position in this mythic two-drop. Let the price be the guide on when to buy this card, but for the moment the price is not saying anything of note.

Theros Block & M15

The story for these sets is not changed and will not change in the near term. The pending Standard rotation in the fall is steadily eroding value from these sets. Short-term gains can occur on Modern or Legacy playable cards, but the overall trend is down. August is the prime month for targeting junk mythic rares that have some casual appeal, such as the planeswalkers of M15 and the mono-colour gods of THS.

Magic Origins presents an interesting event for speculators related to M15. The reprinting of the opposing-colour pain lands is going to have a substantial effect on the price of M15 sets. Currently all of the M15 versions of this land cycle are 1.5 tix or more, with Caves of Koilos and Llanowar Wastes both currently over 4 tix due to Standard playability. Once release events start for ORI, the price of these lands will come down due to the flood of supply coming in from Limited events.

As a result, value in M15 will bleed from the pain lands into the mythic rares of this set. Although this is not a currently actionable item due to the pending rotation of this set, watch for a strengthening of junk mythic rares prices from M15 as ORI release events wind down in August.

Tarkir Block

FRF and DTK are respectively flat and slightly down in price this week as drafting continues and the lure of powered Cube draft drains tix from MTGO player's accounts. Two rares from FRF are presenting interesting price trends at the moment. Tasigur, the Golden Fang is trending down, and as a staple of Modern, this is a card to keep an eye on. Its previous low was 3 tix, so if it revisits this price during ORI release events, don't be afraid to start buying.

Crux of Fate is a Standard-only card, but it has dipped below 1 tix in the last month. Although the spoiling of Languish has eaten into the price of Crux of Fate, the modal sweeper occupies a different strategic space than the ORI rare. At current prices, Crux of Fate represents a good bet.

KTK continues its slow but steady upward trend initiated early June. ORI release events may give a little break to the trend, similar to what was seen for Modern Masters 2015, but nothing major is expected to disrupt this price hike until next October.

Modern

Last week's end to MM2 drafts have significantly pushed prices all across the set. The whole set is up by about 15% compared to last week and by more than 25% compared to late June. Players and speculators have definitely taken their positions in the past week or so, and with no more incoming supply MM2 prices are very likely to keep trending up for a little while.

With this sudden but nonetheless anticipated take off in prices the very next concern for speculators is the selling point. The answer to this question might vary a lot depending on the card in question. As discussed last week, most of the selling action will probably take place late September and before the release of BFZ. However, speculators should also not lose track of their own positions and should pay attention to price variations.

Established and expensive Modern staples reprinted in MM2 such as Splinter Twin, Fulminator Mage and Mox Opal are very likely to steadily increase until October. Cheaper cards such as Wilt-Leaf Liege, Hurkyl's Recall and Dismember may, however, rapidly double or triple in price as early as August or September.

Although there might be room for more growth, these cards might also flatten and dip several weeks before the expected peak around the release of BFZ. Selling a position with a triple-digit percentage point benefit is always a good move, especially knowing that prices are very likely to dip a couple of weeks later.

No changes were announced in this Monday's B&R list. Some key cards of the Amulet Bloom and Grishoalbrand decks may have been presumed to receive the ban hammer. Amulet of Vigor instantly jumped from 3 Tix to 6 Tix in a matter of hours. Despite a ceiling of 14 Tix it may be too late to reasonably speculate on the Worldwake artifact, particularly in regards to other speculation lining up with ORI.

However, because of its reprint in MM2, Primeval Titan looks now a little bit better now that it can safely be played along Amulet of Vigor. If you didn't pick up some Titans two or three weeks ago they are probably worth a shot now.

The situation is not as obvious for potential speculative targets of the Grishoalbrand deck, Through the Breach, Nourishing Shoal and Night's Whisper. Goryo's Vengeance deck variants have existed for a while now and are not known to be very stable in addition to being sensitive to sideboard hate. The Shoal version however seems to be a little more resilient to disruption and has posted strong GP finishes recently.

It's too early to say if Grishoalbrand will be a recurrent Modern deck or not at this point. If Goryo's Vengeance, Worldspine Wurm and Blackcleave Cliffs are currently too high to justify being good speculative targets, Night's Whisper, and to a lesser degree Nourishing Shoal and Through the Breach, could be good buying opportunities provided the deck maintains its appeal.

Legacy & Vintage

The B&R list announcement didn't affect Legacy either. This mean that Miracles, one of the most performant Legacy deck of the moment, should continue to be omnipresent. Counterbalance will maintain its price, Terminus will probably keep climbing until the Legacy MOCS in November and Monastery Mentor's price will still be slightly supported by some Legacy demand since Miracles is the main Legacy deck playing it currently.

In Vintage, Vintage Masters Mythics and P9 indices as well as the total VMA set index have been very stable since May. Only one card has been on a constant declining trend since it's release: Black Lotus. At this pace, Black Lotus will likely fall below the symbolic mark of 100 Tix by the end of the month during ORI release events. The Lotus was priced at 103 Tix on Goatbots yesterday.

Pauper

Nothing new impacted the Pauper market this week and price swings continue to fluctuate cyclically. As a reminder, and since Pauper doesn't have its own Movers and & Shakers on Mtggoldfish.com a good way to keep speculators up to date with Pauper price variations is to combine the information observed in the Legacy Movers & Shakers and in the Pauper Metagame stats.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Verdant Catacombs
Spell Snare
Obstinate Baloth

These three positions have generated decent profits since we recommended them last April and May. Although the peak may have been missed for Verdant Catacombs and Spell Snare, we think it's a good time to sell these profitable Modern positions before a potential return to lower prices during ORI release events.

One thought on “Insider: MTGO Market Report for July 15th, 2015

  1. Hey guys! Great work, as always! I was wondering why is value supposed to translate from painlands to mythics in M15, as I thought the price of these mythics was attached to how different was the setÂŽs value IRL than Online.

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