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Insider: MTGO Market Report for Sept 16th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of September 14th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

sep14

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Jace, Architect of Thought recently bottomed at 6 tix two months after RTR went offline for redemption and now it has crept back up to over 7 tix. It shows up as one- a or two-of in various Modern control strategies and can come out of the sideboard of U/R Splinter Twin. Having put in a price bottom, look for this card to soften in price during BFZ release events before picking up any copies for play or speculation.

Similar to Jace, Voice of Resurgence has been riding higher on the seasonal uptick in Modern Constructed that occurs in September. It's doubtful that this card will hit a new peak with less than two weeks to go before the release of BFZ, so look for this card to head lower into October. 18 tix for this card is the new price target for players and speculators.


Jeff Hoogland has been running an innovative Esper build which features GTC mythic rare Obzedat, Ghost Council as a reanimation target. You can check out the complete build on his Twitter account. Ghost Dad's blinking ability means that using Goryo's Vengeance to get it out of the graveyard returns it to play indefinitely, if you correctly stack the end of turn triggers. This is a previously unrecognized interaction in Modern Constructed play that could develop into higher prices for this card.

Theros Block & M15

The trend on these sets continues to be down. It's still early to be bottom fishing, but any mythic rare from THS or M15 that dips to 0.4 tix or less is a safe speculative play. These two sets remain the only ones to pay attention to as they are the most likely to be attractive to redeemers down the road.

In THS, Xenagos, the Reveler has dipped below 1 tix and is at a very attractive price. The only uncertainty is that THS was opened quite heavily in the V3 client's last year. There is the potential for a significant amount of supply on any THS mythic to be floating around, so stay disciplined and wait for further price declines.

The same concerns do not exist for M15, so we might have already seen the bottom on a card like Jace, the Living Guildpact. Ajani Steadfast appears to have put in a bottom months ago at just under 3 tix. If this card drifts down back into that range, do no hesitate to start buying. Nissa, Worldwaker and Garruk, Apex Predator are also both threatening to dip below 3 tix.

None of these planeswalkers see any play in Modern Constructed, but they still have cachet and value to redeemers. They should all be on your list of potential speculative targets, with the right price being the trigger.

Tarkir Block & Magic Origins

With BFZ release events looming, all Tarkir block boosters are going to become quite irrelevant to drafters. It's time to sell any boosters from these sets that have been purchased for speculating before they drop in price.

ORI boosters will also drop in price in October, but as that is the first set to be drafted after the addition of play points, it's not clear what type of drop to expect on ORI boosters. As October unfolds, look for signs of a price bottom on all of these boosters, as they will rebound in price heading into the winter once the initial frenzy of BFZ drafting winds down.

Both DTK and FRF feature a number of uncommons that get regular play in Standard Constructed. With the pending rotation in Standard, previously marginal cards will have a chance to fill the space that departing cards such as Stoke the Flames hold. Look to today's recommended buys for a basket of uncommons. KTK uncommons have a much higher supply due to being drafted for longer, so the upside on KTK uncommons is lower. Roast of DTK at over 1 tix is a good example of what an in-demand uncommon can be priced at.

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy keeps cruising higher, and even shows up as a four-of and key graveyard enabler in Hoogland's aforementioned Modern Esper deck. We've not yet seen the full impact of ORI on Modern Constructed, but seeing an older archetype, such as Gifts Reanimator, invigorated by new cards suggests ORI will be reverberating in that format for a while yet.

Modern

The unexpected victory of Zach Elisk’s Lantern Control deck at Modern GP Oklahoma was certainly the big new of this past weekend in Modern. After a Top 16 at GP Charlotte three months ago Zach put his Lantern brew once and for all on the list of the threats to consider in Modern.

Financially speaking, Lantern of Insight was a bulk uncommon until last June and spiked to 2.5 Tix after Zach’s first finish. Back to near bulk value about a month later the Lantern had started to creep up again a few weeks ago. Expect the Fifth Dawn artifact now to reach new summits and to stick to it for a while. Similar to Night's Whisper a 5 Tix price tag might be possible. At that price tag, and probably before that, selling would be a serious consideration.

Ensnaring Bridge may be the other card to benefit from the impressive run of this deck. Although already around 30 Tix, Bridge could definitely go higher if the Lantern hype catches up. Other Modern cards used in the deck, such Mox Opal, Inquisition of Kozilek, Spellskite, Abrupt Decay and Glimmervoid, would also certainly receive an additional momentary boost in price.

Besides Lantern Control taking home the trophy, the GP Oklahoma Top 8 also saw eight totally different decks--Merfolk, Scapeshift, Amulet Bloom, Elves, U/R Twin, Naya Burn, Affinity and Lantern Control. Outside of the Top 8, we saw a less diverse Top 32, with half of the decklists comprised of Naya Company, Grixis Control/Twin or Affinity.

Considering everything, we believe that there’s more to gain by selling several Modern positions this month, even for a limited or null profit, in order to reinvest in ORI rares. As we also discussed, the decision also depends on everyone’s perspective, bankroll size and portfolio preferences.

The release of BFZ will put pressure on all prices, including Modern prices. Selling MM2 positions susceptible to lose value over the next four weeks in order to acquire ORI positions that will maintain steady growth until later this Fall is the strategy that should yield the best outcome.

Legacy & Vintage

All Legacy and Vintages indices remain mostly unchanged this week. On average prices for these formats evolve very slowly and have been on a subtle upward trend for the past several weeks.

Pauper

Pauper keeps evolving and its prices keep fluctuating mostly following cyclical variations. This week, blue-based decks took over the first places for the most represented decks from Mono-Black and Stompy a few weeks earlier.


Although it has peaked to 2 Tix several times in the past, Innocent Blood seems trapped in a 0.3-to-1 Tix cycle since the release of Fate Reforged. This card may currently be at a local high and selling now may be the right option.

After falling to 2 Tix for the second time in two months, Sunscape Familiar’s price is regaining some strength. For the position we recommended about two month ago we missed a good selling opportunity earlier this month and will adjust our expectations next time the price is cycling up.

Finally, Collected Company reinvigorated Elves in Modern, giving a boost, among other cards, to Nettle Sentinel, a common from Eventide also played in Pauper Stompy. Nettle Sentinel has regularly fluctuated between 2 and 4 Tix since last April. After a third peak at 4 Tix three weeks ago this Elf is back to 2 Tix, despite a decent finish of Elves at last weekend's GP Oklahoma. No reason to think that it won’t go back up to 4 Tix in a near future.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Rending Volley
Foul-Tongue Invocation
Silumgar's Scorn
Draconic Roar
Valorous Stance
Wild Slash
Abbot of Keral Keep
Yavimaya Coast
Shivan Reef
Llanowar Wastes
Battlefield Forge
Caves of Koilos
Exquisite Firecraft
Hangarback Walker
Languish
Vryn Wingmare
Herald of the Pantheon
Despoiler of Souls
Gilt-Leaf Winnower
Infinite Obliteration
Sigil of the Empty Throne

We think it's time acquire some ORI rares. This list is composed of obvious picks and a few bulk rares that, at their current price, offer potential big rewards with close to no risks. Other ORI rares will probably be recommended in the following weeks but are likely to further decrease in price in our opinions.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

KTK boosters
FRF boosters
DTK boosters

Modern

Spellskite
Marsh Flats
Remand
Dismember
Mutagenic Growth
Deceiver Exarch
Obstinate Baloth
Threads of Disloyalty
Shattering Spree

Boosters and Modern positions are coming to a tipping point. Some of these picks may not have been as profitable as we expected, or even not profitable at all, but we believe that opportunities with better potential outcomes are available at the moment.

Pauper

Crypt Rats
Innocent Blood

These two specs never really delivered. Similarly to our other sell recommendations here too we are making room for likely more profitable positions.

2 thoughts on “Insider: MTGO Market Report for Sept 16th, 2015

  1. loving the buy recommendations, I have very similar feelings about what (non bulk) rares to pick up from ORI. I would also add Managorger Hydra as the card seems very powerful to me.

    1. I like the Hydra too but I would like it better closer to a bulk price. This is one of these cards that are likely to get closer to 0.05-0.1 Tix in the following days/weeks if nothings from BFZ obviously clicks with it.

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