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Another Look at Modern Metagame

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Hello, everyone.

To start us off today, let's go over the recent top-performing decks in Modern. Abzan Midrange and Grixis Death's Shadow are doing pretty well at Modern PTQs lately.

It's no surprise for Grixis Death's Shadow to perform well, as it's one of the most powerful decks in the today's metagame. It's proven the capability to adapt to most metagame changes since the deck became popular earlier this year. In the last few weeks, Abzan has re-emerged packing a full playset of Lingering Souls, a card that is good against most midrange or control decks, and I believe it will be popular in the coming weeks as well.

Besides the two decks mentioned, Blue-Red Gifts Storm has also re-appeared in the metagame, scoring multiple 5-0s in MTGO Competitive Leagues and two 6-0s in Modern Challenges last week. With Blue-Red Storm and Abzan regaining popularity, here are the current top decks based on MTGGoldfish data:

Graveyard Hate

With the above metagame changes, I'm going to speculate on a few cards. Firstly, its pretty obvious that delirium- and graveyard-themed decks are coming back. So, it's time to take a look  at the best graveyard hate cards again.

Leyline of the Void is very strong graveyard hate. It's usually a three- or four-of in the sideboard of black decks, because players want them in their opening hands against specific decks. Similarly, Rest in Peace is also strong against graveyard strategies, but the difference is that decks that play white, like Blue-White Control and Abzan, might not want to include RIP in their 75s as this card will hurt their own plays. Generally, both Leyline and Rest in Peace are good against Grixis Death's Shadow, Abzan and Blue-Red Gifts Storm. So if these decks continue maintaining or gaining popularity in the Modern metagame, these cards all have the potential to increase in price again – note they are all at relative low points compared to the last six months..

  • Leyline of the Void (GPT): Current Buy Price: 7.2; Target Sell Price: 12; Profit Per Copy: 4.8
  • Leyline of the Void (M11): Current Buy Price: 5.9; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 4.1
  • Rest in Peace: Current Buy Price: 6.5; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 3.5

Company Decks

With Collected Company decks like Counters Company and 4C or 5C Humans disappearing from the top-performing decklists, we can probably expect the namesake card to drop in price slowly. If it does drop below the 18-tickets mark, you could consider picking up a few playsets. On the other hand, Chord of Calling, a card that is usually played together with Collected Company, is already at its low point, making it a good investment opportunity.

  • Chord of Calling: Current Buy Price: 2; Target Sell Price: 5; Profit Per Copy: 3
  • Collected Company: Target Buy Price: 20; Target Sell Price: 30; Profit Per Copy: 10

Noble Hierarch is no doubt one of the best mana dorks in Modern. Currently, its not at its lowest point, but if it does drop below 16 tickets, I think that would be a good chance to invest in copies. Based on its historical price, Hierarch can easily be at above 20 tickets when one of the top-performing deck is playing with it.

  • Noble Hierarch: Target Buy Price: 16; Target Sell Price: 21; Profit Per Copy: 5

Faeries

In my opinion, Blue-Black Faeries is a very good deck to play right now because Bitterblossom is such a good card against the midrange decks in the format. Additionally, this deck has counter magic against the big mana decks like Tron, Amulet Bloom and Titan Shift. Recently, I've even seen players squeezing in one to two copies of The Scarab God in their blue-black decks for some grindy matchups, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a Faeries deck jamming Scarab God doing well in the future. Let's look at some of the components:

As you guys can see, most of these cards are at their respective low prices according to the graphs. Bitterblossom is the main component of this deck. The ability to exchange a life for a 1/1 flyer – every turn – is the main reason why this deck is called an aggro-control deck, as the faeries can quickly take over the game while the player counters or destroys everything that else in their way. Mistbind Clique and Vendilion Clique are the best Faerie-type creatures that help to disrupt the opponent's game plan. Both of these creatures are extremely cheap right now in my opinion, and you might want to get some just in case. As for the blue-black lands, Darkslick Shores has probably reached its lowest point while Creeping Tar Pit can still go lower.

  • Bitterblossom: Target Buy Price: 10; Target Sell Price: 15; Profit Per Copy: 5
  • Vendilion Clique: Current Buy Price: 16; Target Sell Price: 25; Profit Per Copy: 9
  • Mistbind Clique: Current Buy Price: 1.8; Target Sell Price: 4.5; Profit Per Copy: 2.7
  • Darkslick Shores: Current Buy Price: 1.8; Target Sell Price: 4; Profit Per Copy: 2.2
  • Creeping Tar Pit: Target Buy Price: 5; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 5

Other Random Cards

Inquisition of Kozilek is very popular in Modern. Almost all black decks will play some number of copies of this card in their 75. This card consistently fluctuates between 1.5 and 3 tickets. Although its not as fast as some of the cards with cyclical trends, I think it's relative low point in the fluctuation process provides a good opportunity to see some potential profits.

  • Inquisition of Kozilek: Current Buy Price: 1.7; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 1.3

Kitchen Finks is commonly used against aggro decks and midrange/attrition matchups. The indirect card-advantage from this card is pretty annoying for some decks, and it's also part of the combos in the Company decks. I'm not very sure on the reason of the drop in price, but it's probably safe to invest in some copies of Finks at its current price of 2.15 tickets each.

  • Kitchen Finks: Current Buy Price: 2.15; Target Sell Price 4.2; Profit Per Copy: 2.05

This card is usually seen in decks with at least three colors because they can't afford to sacrifice their mana base for Ghost Quarter effects. Fulminator Mage is better than Ghost Quarter in some cases; for example, it can help to pressure the opponent when the land destruction effect is not relevant. This card spiked when the full spoilers of Modern Masters 2017 came out, of course with some help from the Modern metagame. Now it's back at 15 tickets, and I think this card is a good choice for a long-term specs.

  • Fulminator Mage: Current Buy Price: 15.4; Target Sell Price: 25; Profit Per Copy: 9.6

Kolaghan's Command was one of the most underrated card in Dragons of Tarkir. The black-red Command is one of the best two-for-one card in Modern and even Legacy. The price of this card has been staying around 13 tickets for quite some time already. If Modern Jund or any black-red deck becomes popular in the future, this card can easily be part of those decks, and has a potential to increase in value.

  • Kolaghan's Command: Current Buy Price: 13.3; Target Sell Price: 18; Profit Per Copy: 4.7

 


Alright, that's all for this week. Thanks for reading, and I'll see you guys again soon.

–Adrian, signing out.

2 thoughts on “Another Look at Modern Metagame

  1. Hey! I am back from a bunch of months absence on QS insider and it is really nice see that there is someone back writting MTGO targeting certain cards as objectives.

    As an idea, maybe this could be converted in something regular, like Cancellara MTGO Cards to Buy, Sell or Hold – Episodes!

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