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Not-So-Quiet Speculations: Some Cards I’ve Put Money On

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So my first two articles had a great amount of feedback from everyone and I honestly appreciate it.  A couple comments seemed to come up a few times, though: "What are your specs?" or something similar such as, "Show us some real numbers."

So I figured, why not? I don't think it will hurt anyone or anything too much to give you all a bit of insight to my speculation bin.  I'll do my best to explain why I have looked at each card, why I bought the amount that I did, how much I bought in at, where I purchased, and what my end goal is.  Hopefully this will provide something helpful for everyone in the finance game.  Before I start, here's a few tidbits about me and my buying/selling:

  • I typically spec in Standard, Modern, and Commander (in that order).
  • Standard specs are often meant for a quick flip anywhere from within 24 hours to about six months out.  I don't like to hold Standard much longer than that unless some information changes the game plan (i.e., banning, leak, etc).
  • With, Modern I often like to flip quickly too – it's such a crazy format sometimes that holding something for very long, unless there's a great reason (like MH1 specs), is just not worth it to me.
  • Commander cards I will often hold until I feel they have enough value to sell.  I've held Commander cards in the past for over a year.  I put them in a separate box so it's easy to forget about them and unless something crazy happens (like Feather or Teysa buyouts) I only check in on them about once a month.
  • I am a big fan of penny-stock type specs.  If I can get a card for bulk and flip it for over $1, then I'm all about it.  My income doesn't allow me to make larger purchases like investing in the Masterpiece Series or fetches.  I can purchase them, but I am not a fan of holding one or two of a card just to resell it.  I can buy two Polluted Deltas or for the same price buy six or more Smothering Tithes.
  • I'm not perfect and neither are you.  Specs don't always succeed and everyone should prepare for that.  If you can justify your reasons behind a card, then by all means go buy it... but just know that there is a chance it could fail (I still have a stack of Summoning Traps laying around, and it's slightly depressing).

Stop talking and show us your cards

Okay.

First up, we have the legendary sorcery cards!  More specifically, non-foil versions of Karn's Temporal Sundering and Yawgmoth's Vile Offering.  I don't have the liquidity to invest in foils just yet.


As a blue player, this card caught my eye right away.  Take an extra turn? Yes please!  Sundering came on my radar right away with the Dominaria spoiler season, but I had a hunch that buying in to it during preorders was a trap.

Preordering can often be tricky, and I've been burned on it too many times.  This card hit bulk not long after Dominaria's release, and I knew it was EDH gold.  All of the legendary sorcery cards (in my opinion) are EDH gold, they just need some time to grow.  If you look at the history of "extra turn" cards, they all seem to become popular eventually.  With the recent spoiling of God-Eternal Kefnet this card jumped back on my radar and I doubled my stock.  There's actually a combo with those two cards (and a third) in the new standard, so maybe it will see play?

  • Stock: 40
  • Bought from: 30x TCGplayer, 10x LGS
  • Price: TCGPlayer $.36, LGS $.25
  • End goal: Buy-list for over $1.  If it goes over $2, I will list on TCGplayer and/or Facebook

This card is the same appeal, but in a color-shifted mindset.  Black cards that return permanents are often great and have large impacts on the game, especially in Commander.  Not only is reanimation great, but a card that doesn't specify which graveyard you can take from is even better.  Add on to that the chance to grab a planeswalker and you have some spicy tech.

But we're not finished – you also get to destroy a target creature or planeswalker if you so choose, and for only five mana.  This card can find a home in so many Commander decks and has the potential to see play in the upcoming Standard meta.  With the amount of legendary cards that could see play, there's no reason you should be afraid of the legendary sorcery caveat on these cards.  I don't feel as confident in this card as I do with Sundering, but that might be because I am a blue player at heart and I love extra turns.

  • Stock: 20
  • Bought from: 25x TCGplayer, 5x LGS
  • Price: TCGplayer $.55, LGS $.25
    End goal: Buy-list for over $1. If it goes over $2, I will list on TCGplayer and/or Facebook

Ravager Wurm has been something that I've been watching since Allegiance spoilers.  It started pretty high during preorders and has been falling ever since.  In a standard meta that is very aggressive, this card doesn't see much play, but it has so much potential to be amazing – consider playing it alongside Rhythm of the Wild or Vivien's Arkbow.  Let's go over the checklist:

  • Mythic
  • Six or less mana means it's fairly on curve for most decks running red or green
  • 4/5 means it doesnt die to lava coil/lightning strike/etc
  • 4/5 also means it can block a lot of things
  • Riot
  • ETB trigger is relevant

Does anyone remember RG monsters?  This reminds me a bit of the giant curve of creatures that can come down fairly fast.  Not only that, but with the recent spoiling of the new Boar God Ilharg, the Raze-Boar, this card could be nuts.  It just needs the right deck to succeed.

  • Stock: 35
  • Bought from: TCGPlayer
  • Price: $.30 (and still buying under $.50)
  • End goal: My hope is that this hits $5, but if it doesn't, then I'd like to at least sell for $2

Lapse of Certainty is the first foil that I bought in at with the goal of investment.

Here's a secret I'll share with you... watch videos from The Command Zone right when they come out.  Not only are they pretty cool to watch, but you can keep an eye out for crazy tech.  These videos often cause spikes and buyouts, so it can be financially beneficial to be as ahead of the game as possible (there's an MTG pun in there somewhere).

Recently, a new video posted and I scrolled through it searching for something spicy before even enjoying the video.  I had no clue if this would be the card to hit, so I decided to take a risk.  Risk... it can be dangerous but sometimes rewarding.

  • Stock: 11
  • Bought from: SCG, as they were the only ones that had multiples at the price I liked.
  • Price: $.79
  • End goal: I started with 11, I'm down to nine because I sold two at $3.99 on TCG about a week ago.  Now they seem to have spiked, and the lowest on TCG as of the writing of this article is just under $10.  In all honesty, because I want the money, I'll probably post them on TCG for about $8.

Now that you know all of my secrets...

Well, not all of them.  A magician never gives away all of their secrets.  I think I'll do an update to this article in a few months, as well as give another insight to some more of my specs after War of the Spark is well into its Standard life.  I hope this helps some of you understand my frame of mind, as well as help you figure out where you want to go with your financial game.  'Til next time, folks!


Pat's Predictions

  • Alright I'll give you one more... Domri, Chaos Bringer needs a home. Gruul Warriors is seeing a lot more play and could evolve to something more in the coming months.
  • Gruul Spellbreaker is a four-of in that same deck.  Just a thought...
  • London Mulligan is happening and I don't have a whole lot of faith in it, so don't hold those Serum Powders too closely.

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