| Quiet Speculation

The Nutt Draw: Buy List Matrix

Posted on September 8, 2010November 28, 2010 by Chris McNutt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Last month this subject in the rotation was called the “Worth Matrix.” Herein lies approximately the same data, but I’ve decided to shift the focus away from the experimental concept of a new measuring value and toward the manipulation of the data from the actual Buy Lists that I track.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=24&range=B2%3AC3&output=html&widget=false 430px 320px]

I’m going to throw out a lot of data on this go ‘round including a list more or less spec’d out by reader Womby in the comments of last week’s Set EV article. I’d also like to point out that per request I have extended the timelines in the graphs of the top five most valuable cards in Standard that are generally peppered throughout my articles.

Here we have a look at the updates to the three buy lists we had before. I have to point out that at the time of writing this the Star City Games Buy List is still offline and so I couldn’t collect the data.

First up is Standard.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=3&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

I don’t really see any big surprise changes from last weeks, though I’m still a bit surprised to see that Jace, the Mind Sculptor is still not being actively purchased on the buy lists even though he’s sold so much through eBay.

Secondly we have Extended.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=4&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

Even though the Time Spiral block is rotating out near the end of this month Tarmogoyf is still being purchased. I know it’s used in Legacy, but this still comes as a small surprise to me. Most of the other cards at the top of this list are a virtual who’s who of Extended post rotation.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=5&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=24&range=B4%3AC5&output=html&widget=false 430px 320px]

I’m mostly a Standard and Limited player so most oddities on the Extended and Legacy lists don’t jump out at me like they might for you. A big change to all the lists this week is that I’m including approximately the top 500 cards so that you can enjoy the scrolling fun.

As with the last Buy List evaluations I’m including an update to the list that highlights where the card with low Demand Index values intersect hits on the Buy Lists. Hopefully this will spark the remembrance of some cards you might want to offload that the shops are buying up, but may be unimportant to you. Please note also that the Legacy portion of this list has filtered out the Power 9.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=2&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

It looks like it’s time to get rid of that Nemesis of Reason collection we has so much hope for at $1 each to ChannelFireball.com. Extra Lord of Extinction, Mind Funeral, Wall of Omens, and Sanguine Bond cards shouldn’t be missed from too many collections. My best friend from birth, KYT (@manadeprived on twitter) has close to 15 Pyromancer Ascension cards. With BlackBorder.com snatching them up at $2 each, now might be the time to find an envelope. It looks like there are quite a few Uncommons on both the Standard and Extended lists… it’s time to sort some 5000 count storage boxes I think…

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=24&range=B6%3AC7&output=html&widget=false 430px 320px]

All new this week is a list of all the cards set to rotate with the onset of Scars of Mirrodin that appear on the buy lists. If you’re not an Extended player, get these ones off to the shops quickly before the values fall any further. Since we are pretty close to the yearly rotation I should also point out that most of the cards still on this list are of interest to the various shops because of their usefulness in Extended. These might be cards to watch as we move into the season later in the year. Please also note that the cards included on this list are those that are in the sets that will be rotating out. Some cards like Baneslayer Angel and Ajani Goldmane are listed even though they will have a standard legal counterpart for a year or longer.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=20&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=24&range=B8%3AC9&output=html&widget=false 430px 320px]

Finally, we’re going to end with another all new list collation. Last week I asked everyone to comment on how they used the data I present in order for me to tailor it in ways that I hadn’t previously considered. A brave sole cursed with the name Womby spoke up saying that he (I’m sure Womby is a masculine name, after all what kind of parents would yoke a daughter with it?) uses the Buy List and eBay data to look for the largest variations in pricing in order to help guide him into stable trading results. Sorted by the largest variances between eBay and the store offering the highest bounty for the given card, I present you now with, The Womby List.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=22&output=html&widget=true 100% 600px]

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=24&range=B10%3AC11&output=html&widget=false 430px 320px]

Most of the cards at the top of this list are higher end cards that could potentially have more room to create such variances, but what do you suppose it means that you could potentially pull an 18% margin on a Mox Jet eBay purchase by selling it to TrollandToad.com for $400? How about 28% margin on a Library of Alexandria sold to TrollandToad.com for $160? Next time around perhaps I‘ll apply some filters to the Womby List so that we’re looking only at cards that are above $0.50 in variance and sorted by potential margin percentage?

Any way you look at it, we all have money in cards lying around and there are stores out there who want them. Whether you use these lists for trading or to scrape together enough to pay the electric bill, I hope they serve you well.

Chris McNutt
@fatecreatr on twitter

An Expedition for Information

Posted on September 5, 2010November 28, 2010 by Noah Whinston

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Whinston’s Whisdom is back for yet another week of Magic finance analysis and tips for those who want to make Magic not only a hobby, but a living as well. This week I’m diverging a bit from MTGO to talk about getting started in dealing (a topic of I’ve been looking into as of late) and some specific trades I made at FNM, which help to illustrate the advantage of “trading down”. For those digital readers out there, no worries, I’ll be back with more online tips and tricks next week.

But for now, let’s start with my journey of discovery into the deep jungle of the unknown world of “dealing”. Before we can begin the transfer of information though, we need to get some definitions straight. What is dealing? To me, I break down the average magic player into 3 types of traders:

The Casual Trader: trades only for what he needs for a deck. Even if he’s offered a good deal, he wont necessarily accept it unless the cards he gains are able to go right into his deck for a given tournament. He’s less concerned about trading for cards simply to retrade them.

The Speculator: I think this is the area under which most readers of QS would fall. These guys don’t have the budget or time to commit themselves to a small business, so they use trading not as their main source of income, but simply as a way to pick up a few bucks here and there. Because of their relatively low budget, speculator will focus on just a few cards that have the possibility to see a dramatic rise in price, which they then will resell.

The Dealer: the don of Magic trading, the dealer is the guy that trades, buys, and sells cards as his primary source of income. These are the people that set up booths at events like PTQs and Prereleases. They are always buying cards. And they have a big enough budget to have multiple playsets of every card in the current format. The top spot on the trading ladder.

1045dealer — All this and more could be yours!

So, from my perspective, a dealer is someone who makes their living from buying and selling Magic cards. And this is my goal. Thankfully, at the moment, all of income is disposable. I don’t have any bills to pay or a family to feed, so starting up a dealership now would allow me to use the money later on in life, when I will need it for those things. And also, it’s just a great thing to do. I can imagine almost nothing better than to make a living off of this amazing game. So I wanted to be a dealer, but I didn’t know the first thing about, so I started asking around.

After talking to many people I respect, including QS’ own Kelly Reid, the owners of Pastimes and MTG Chicago, as well as some business minded friends, I made a few discoveries.

First, while the estimates varied from contact to contact, the average recommended initial investment was $10,000. As Jon Medina was nice enough to break it down for me: 4,000 for buying initial cardstock, 4,000 to buy cards at events, and 2,000 for a website, renting booth space, and other costs (while Jon recommended $12,000 as a start up investment, I modified his numbers due to his guess being slightly higher than average).

Well, to be honest, this was a bit much for me. So I had to go looking for a partner, someone who was either willing to enter into this new world with me, or at least invest in this startup. Luckily for me, I found the perfect man for the job. Greg Ivey has been one of my best Magic friends for a few years now, and he expressed interest in joining me in this venture. As if this wasn’t already good enough, Greg is very experienced as a business consultant, and really knows his stuff. I’ll try to paraphrase his advice to make it slightly more understandable:

“Essentially what we want to be doing is to find a store that wants someone to supply them with singles and deal at their events, and enter into an LLC (limited liability company). This will provide the first source of earnings and then give us the capital to rent booths at events run by larger organizers, like PTQs.”

Greg’s proposal of an LLC boils down to us and another store becoming partial business partners. From what I can divine from Wikipedia, an LLC will give the two companies the benefits of acting as a single company, but without either company being responsible of the debts or failures of the other.

That’s where we are at the moment. Greg and I have gone a little way into figuring out how we’re going to set this thing in motion, so now we’re just waiting for the final shove. I’m very excited about this project, and I’ll keep you updated as it progresses.

15914-trader-works-on-the-floor-of-the-new-york-stock-exchange-in- — "I said SELL Google, BUY Pork Belly Futures!"

Now, I want to illustrate a principal that anyone looking to trade for profit should be able to use effectively: trading down. Trading down swaps an item of large value for multiple items of smaller value. Why is this useful? Let’s look at that Baneslayer that’s been sitting in your binder for weeks. While it’s price may have fluctuated a few dollars, that’s still not very much. But let’s assume you trade that Baneslayer for thirty $1 rares (taking a loss of $5 from Starcity pricing). Because of the greater quantity of these cheaper rares, if there is any price increase, the amount of profit margin you get is increased thirtyfold. This opens up the opportunity for a higher reward, however with an admittedly higher risk. Still, trading down is an important tool in a trader’s arsenal. So let’s take a look at my trades at FNM:

(For the purposes of keeping everything constant, we’ll use Starcity pricing for all cards)

My:

1 Baneslayer Angel (35)

His:

1 Verdant Catacombs (12)

2 Eye of Ugin (8)

1 Pyromancer Ascension (out of stock at 2.50, estimated 3)

1 Summoning Trap (2)

1 bloodghast (6)

Net loss of $4

At face value, this trade is horrible for me. I’m losing Baneslayer Angel, a flagship of the modern constructed formats as well as one of the best creatures ever printed, and I’m not getting much of anything. But let’s look closer. We’ll see that all of the cards I’m trading should be seeing competitive play after Alara block rotates. Eye of Ugin could easily make a massive price jump if Conrad Kolos’ Mono-Green Eldrazi Ramp from US Nationals catches on post Alara, as does Summing Trap and Bloodghast will be huge if Dredgevine is able to survive. Verdant Catacombs, while less likely to jump, is still of constant value. Pyromancer Ascension might be the odd one out, but it’s not impossible to build a viable Pyromancer Ascension deck without the infinite Time Warp engine. I hear triple Lightning Bolt is still pretty good.

My:

1 Grave Titan (30)

His:

6 Valakut (12)

4 Pyromancer Ascension (out of stock at 2.50 each, estimated at 3 each=12)

6 Armament master (4.5)

2 Bloodghast (12)

Net gain of $10.5

This was a trade I was VERY happy with. Once again, I’m trading off what I see as a stagnant front runner in Grave Titan, for several cheaper cards that definitely possess the ability to jump. I’ve already explained Bloodghast and Ascension, but it only gets better from there. Valakut is looking to be huge with the massive popularity of R/G Valakut, especially after the rotation of Alara, and the deck could easily be the deck to beat. Armament Master will work well with all the new equipment in Shards of Mirrodin, especially the Sword of Body and Mind, as well as current favorite Basilisk Collar.

And the final trade of the night.

My:

1 Baneslayer Angel (35)

1 Obstinate Baloth (8)

1 Marsh Flats (12)

His:

1 Stoneforge Mystic (5)

1 Eldrazi Temple (4)

1 Eye of Ugin (4)

2 Cryptic Command (24)

3 Bloodghast (18)

Broke even +0

Wow! I don’t think it can get any better than this when looking for an example of trading down. First off, I didn’t incur any losses with this trade. Though I picked up 6 of his cards for 3 of mine, I didn’t have to sacrifice a dollar here or there to do it. Also, the cards I traded off are either stagnant (Baneslayer and Marsh Flats) or set to lose value (Obstinate Baloth is pretty poor with no Blightning in the format). In return for these, I got some blockbuster cards. Stoneforge Mystic pairs well with Armament Master, as well as the new swords. Eldrazi Temple is also a key player in the Mono-Green Eldrazi Ramp deck, and Cryptic Command will shoot up as high as $15-18 once the Extended PTQ season rolls around. I’d say that this trade, despite breaking even at the moment, will easily get me $20+ of profit in the long run.

So, from these examples I hope you’ve seen how important trading down is when trying to get your collection earning again. I’ll just round things off for now with my

Tip of the Week: Stoneforge Mystic and FTV: Relics

Stoneforge Mystic was initially regarded as a crap rare, but then shot up after its successful inclusion in Tom Ross’ and LSV’s Boss Naya deck from PT San Diego, and has seen constant competitive play ever since. At the moment, I’m looking to Scars of Mirrodin to provide the Mystic with some killer equipment to fetch up. We’ve already seen the Sword of Body and Mind, which I think is more than capable of tournament play, and we’re still awaiting a possible B/G Sword as well. Even if the U/G Sword stands on its own, Mystic will still be a fantastic tool in the new Standard environment and well worth picking up while still hovering at or around $5.

My recommendation for FTV: Relics is much simpler: buy at $85 or less. I can’t see these babies going anywhere but up. I managed to pick up 4 copies for $65 each from my local store, and I already have the option to make a quick $150 by selling them for $100 each on Ebay. Despite the potential for quick profit, my recommendation is to hold onto them for a while. As supply goes down, their price will shoot up, making it well worth the wait.

That’s all for this article, and don’t forget to click back next week for more of Whinston’s Whisdom.

Don’t be afraid to trade down,

--Noah Whinston

Dream Cache – How to Spot (and Deal With) Sharks

Posted on September 5, 2010November 28, 2010 by Douglas Linn

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

You’re at a local event, maybe a FNM or maybe a big prerelease. You’ve brought your trade binder and you’d like to get some cards for a deck you want to build, so you’re looking around for other traders. A guy walks by, pulling a suitcase; he turns and says “trades?”

You happily sit down and page through each others’ binders. He pulls out cards from your binder as you slowly flip through his. He’s got Jaces positioned at the front to tempt you. You two get to talking, especially after you have found some cards you need for your deck. However, as you get to negotiating, you realize that this guy is attempting at every point to rip you off. He wants to trip you up on valuation, he tries to get throw-ins that are better than bulk junk, he uses different buy and sell points all along the way in an attempt to get you to part with your cards.

Maybe you do trade, maybe you don’t. More likely, you do the trade and you feel bad afterward.

Nobody should feel run-over after a trade, and this week’s article is about how you can deal with trading sharks.

If You Feel Unsure About it, Walk Away!

shark_week-show — Perhaps QS will one day have its own Shark Week!

This is the foremost trading rule, and people violate it all the time. It happens for many reasons, mostly due to social pressure. Skillful sharks are able to put you at ease about trading away that Gideon for a pile of crap. They can impress you and make you want to give them a better deal, selling you on the idea that you get to trade with a “big name” in the game. You must realize that this is going on, especially if you are not someone who tries to trade up all the time. The reality is that most people who are trading are looking for cards that will go in a pre-existing deck or one that will soon happen. If you need the cards and someone is trying to rake you over for them, you can probably get a better deal somewhere else in the room.

Spotting Sharks

Trading well takes a lot of energy and research, and if you’re like me, you might only trade now and then, and only trade for things you immediately need. I don’t like to do the song and dance of trying to get the person across the table to stop trying to screw me over, so I developed some warning signs that I look for so I don’t waste my time with someone trying to hustle me.

07-18-05-pod — "Mary, is that a shark?" "I do believe so Joaquin."

1. If someone has a LOT of cards on them, they are probably trying to trade for value all the time and unless you want to deal with that, skip them (unless you are sure that they have a card that you need).

2. If someone starts off by looking through your binder and pointing at each card and saying “what do you value this at?” then you are talking to someone who is trying to spot undervalued cards in your binder. That is to say, they are trying to get what you have for less than it’s worth. This point must be contrasted with someone who, every now and then, says “is this for trading? What would you want for it?” When people use words like “value,” it’s a tip-off that they are trying to trade up and you have to choose whether you want to deal with that.

3. If I say “would you trade this?” on something like Aether Vial and the other person says “yeah, I put that at $9,” I might pull out my own Aether Vials and ask if they want to trade for them. If the response I get is “I would trade for yours at $4” then I will say “I don’t think we’ll be able to come to an agreement on anything, thanks for your time.” This behavior must be punished. A backpack trader might legitimately want to make a profit, sure, but when you see discrepancies like this, you have to consider that it’s someone who wants all the price-point benefits that come with running a Magic store without having to pay for rent, lights, advertising or other business expenses [like cleaning up after FNM... -kbr, begrudgingly] I don’t like to subsidize these people if they make themselves out to be traders and not dealers. There’s no excuse for valuing my cards lower than your exact same cards if we’re sitting down between rounds to trade. You are going to work hard for every card you trade for, and you will probably walk away from the trade wondering if you screwed up. Though we expect QS readers to be up on card prices and maybe do a little sharking of their own, we don’t expect readers to do trades that we know are foolishly lopsided.

The great thing about this little test is that you can use it early on when flipping through someone’s binder to see if they are going to be more trouble than you want to deal with.

Understanding Why You Want to Trade

The one piece of homework you have to figure out is why you want to sit down and trade on a particular night. If you want to trade cards without knowing why, you might end up giving up some really juicy (and useful) cards for flashy pimp cards for your EDH. Do you want to trade away a Vengevine for a foil Memory Jar that goes in your EDH and gets played once a year in a Vintage deck? Sometimes, you want to deal with sharks, since they often have a big pile of cards that you want a crack at. If you want to upgrade copies of your cards, you need to seek out the guys with big binders. On the other hand, if you are looking for some dual lands for your Standard deck, many people will have what you are looking for at a decently-sized event, and you should not feel pressured into trading with someone for a card that is not particularly scarce.

I understand that these tips will probably make trading life harder for many QS readers (and editors, sorry Kelly!) but they are also useful for the sharky readers. If you really want to test your trading skills, put them up against a suitcase trader and see what you walk away with! In the end, you never want to make a trade that you are unhappy with, so be honest with yourself and know that you can, and should, walk away from trades at times.

Flash of Hindsight – Do it.

Posted on September 4, 2010November 28, 2010 by David Heilker

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Man, do I have the best idea ever for a deck with Scroll Rack. Alas, it will have to wait for another day.

I don’t know if you read my website, 02drop.com, but now probably wouldn’t be the time to start. We’re on a bit of a hiatus, poised for an exciting relaunch in the next two weeks, and seriously, just whatever you do, do not go over there and register for the forums. It’s totally not worth it. Stay away at all costs, and please, by no means should you read our archived content, because it’s not delicious at all.

The reason I bring up my site is because we are undergoing a new beginning; that’s kind of what’s going on in Magic, or at least it’s on the horizon.

Preparing for Scars of Mirrodin everyone is getting their Steel Overseers together, and speculating like crazy with them. They’re like Eye of Ugin was this time last March, as we all hotly anticipated the cards in Rise. Meanwhile, what shot up when Rise finally did drop? Not Summoning Trap, not even cards in Standard, if we’re being honest. Lotus Cobra was probably all, and that had to do with a certain Tribal Enchantment – Eldrazi Aura, and the deck which around it was built.

This is all fine and good if There are multiple Ornithopters and Frogmites in Scars, but not if artifact creatures aren’t a central focus. We know, if only by precedent, that the set will be artifact-centric, but this is very little knowledge all things considered.

So what can we take from this? While it’s unlikely Affinity for artifacts will be returning, we do have cards (really a card) that survives rotation that will do the opposite, sort of.

That card, the new and improved Juggernaut – Lodestone Golem. Everyone except Vintage players have forgotten this card even existed. This is despite what my comments will say:

Jeff the Impaler says:

“Dude, I totally just picked up like 100 Lodestone Golems! I’m glad someone else was on the same page.”

While I’m being a portent, someone else on the comments will say:

Jannsen Van den Hagel says:

“This is all fine and good for you yanks, but in Eisengrad, where I live and play, you just cannot get Lodestone Golems for less than 40 Euros each!”

What’s the point of all this? Art Williams will tell you, stop saying it, and do it. “It” here, meaning alternately “find where you can get cheap Lodestone Golems, and stop whining like a baby,” and “not go to Dave’s website, 02drop.com (which has been counterintuitively hyperlinked in this article three separate times!).” Watch this video, both parts, and try not to freaking get inspired. I dare you.

Art Williams - Do it. Part 1 of 2

Art Williams - Do it. Part 2 of 2.

If the “Do it.” mantra sounds a bit familiar, it’s because it is. This speech was allegedly the inspiration for the slogan of a major footwear corporation.

Bam. History lesson and motivational speech. Betcha didn’t think you’d be seeing that in this week’s Flash of Hindsight.

Anyway, I’m recommending a positive pickup on all things Lodestone Golem, because seriously, it’s another “what’s the worst that could happen?” scenario. Especially on this one I’d recommend picking up foils, because it’s one of those foils with a tremendous disparity between the price of the regular and foil version (foil Lodestone Golems are upwards of $15). A lot of people don’t know that, especially if there’s no Vintage metagame in your area, so picking these up on the cheap is recommended (certainly don’t pick them up at full price, though if you haven’t yet learned not to pay retail for cards, you probably should just take your whole bankroll and buy a single Jace the Mind Sculptor because you’re not getting it).

The subtheme of this week’s column is of course, doing it. If you’re not following along with my portfolio recommendations, then why not? If you are having trouble keeping up, explain why? I’m consistently getting feedback from you people (and here by “you people” I so obviously mean the blacks) saying that you get it when maybe you don’t.

Things like this example (just an example, this isn’t a quote):

StillPlayinPOGS says:

“Great read, as usual Dave. What’re your thoughts on Infernal Spawn of Infernal Spawn of Evil? I’ve picked up about twenty since your last column!”

To this, I just want to reply with “wait…what?” If you think you’ve got me pegged for a pick you might not. It’s a safe bet that I don’t want any cards in my portfolio that I’m not recommending, unless of course you get it at an insane price.

Speaking of insane price – who got themselves a From the Vault: Relics for retail? Kudos to those of you who did, because StarCity is buying them for $75 (I know I just said never to pay retail. Also, never be afraid to break the rules). That’s better than a 100% turnaround on your investment, instantly which makes FTV:R the best CD money could buy (if you got it at retail). My recommendation? Open and keep one for yourself if you really want to, but if you’re playing for cash here, and I think you are, sell it now. It may go up, but it’s safer to take a sure-thing 115% gain than to maybe only make 100% or even 60% on it.

I’m gonna end a little early this week, but I’m going to do it with a contest. I’m hoping that you’re following along with us as outlined in my first article for QS (back then it was still DS), but I want you to really follow along. Take a picture of your portfolio, and post it to your Twitter @02drop and @QuietSpeculation with the hashtag #FOHContest and next week, when our premium service goes live, you’ll get 60 free days of access to the site. I’ll be happy to announce the winner then. I’d also like to note that I have not obtained approval from Kelly or Doug for this, but I feel they’ll be all about it, and if for some reason they are not, then this article will end abruptly and without explanation, because I stand by this contest. Want to know why? Because I want you to learn to do it. Put your money where my mouth is, and hopefully we can induce vomiting of the most profitable kind.

Bad analogy. But I think if you trust me, we’ll make some money together.

Current Portfolio: About 8-10 Lodestone Golems ($10ish) Between 5-10 Renegade Doppelganger4x Stoneforge Mystics , 4x Goblin Guides, and 12x Armament Masters, 2x Lim Duls Vault, $40.00 (approx.).

Current Performance: Up $40 if you got FTV:R. Otherwise, statickish.

Until next week, good luck in the contest, and I hope I’ve inspired you to do it.

The Revenue Review – Makes and Misses (part 2)

Posted on September 3, 2010November 28, 2010 by Corbin Hosler

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Welcome back to the Revenue Review, where this week we pick up the story of our “hero” (That’s me!) as I finish discussing the flurry of trades I made before the M11 Game Day. If you haven’t read the first part, you can do so here.

I was still feeling a little down after the Grim Monolith trade, but I knew I still had work to do before the night was over, so

I took a few minutes to reorder my binder and got back to work.

My first stop was with a guy dying to build Faeries for the upcoming Extended season. Luckily I’ve been picking up playable Extended cards for the last few months and had some of what he needed.

His:

Misty Rainforest ($13)

Stoneforge Mystic ($5)

Total: $18

Mine:

3x Sunken Ruins ($8)

Total: $24

Net: -$6

Looking back on this, I think I was still a little rattled from the previous trade, and clearly didn’t bring my “A game” to this trade. I valued the Ruins at about $5 even though I knew their price had been increasing for the last few months. With that said, I’m hardly disappointed with picking up fetchlands and Stoneforge Mystics.

At this point I had exhausted most of the traders still left, except for a group of two guys talking in the corner. I walked up to them as the semifinals of the tournament began and introduced myself and gave my usual, casual “are you interested in maybe trading some cards?”

Imagine my dismay when I got the reply, “Sure, I traded off two Jace, The Mind Sculptors earlier, but you can look through what I have left.” Ouch.

I inwardly cursed myself for missing out on one of the few players in my area who are interested in trading Jace (most either play him or sell him), and went to work on his binder.

His:

Eldrazi Temple ($4)

Nantuko Shade ($3.50)

2x Volcanic Fallouts ($.50)

3x Scalding Tarn ($13)

2x Avenger of Zendikar ($8)

Total: $63.50

Mine:

Goblin Guide ($7)

Brittle Effigy ($2.50)

Frost Titan ($11)

Mystifying Maze ($2.50)

Magmaw ($1)

Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre ($9)

Promo Pathrazer of Ulamog ($1)

Total: $34

Net: $29.50

I think the technique I used to make this trade is worth sharing. If you take trading cards as serious as you should be, you need to treat it like a small business. As a businessman, you need to sell your product, which in this case is a proposed trade.

The first thing I did was let my partner price all the cards involved, and either accepted his price or informed him of my personal values as we went. In this case, he undervalued his Scalding Tarns, and I formed my strategy around that.

Once we laid out the cards, I separated them into three piles, each with values tilted slightly toward me. I started at the top of our three “mini-trades” and asked him if he was okay with this. He was. I then moved to the second pile, and he accepted again. When you use this method is becomes much easier for your partner to accept each trade being a few dollars off, because to them it’s usually a negligible price to pay for getting what they want. It also helps you to close a trade with them, and establish a level of trust before moving on to the bigger ticket items or the more profitable “mini-trade.” It is in the third pile that you are looking to make the bulk of your profit.

In this case, the third pile contained his Scalding Tarns and was more clearly tilted in my favor. My partner told me he was uncomfortable with what we had laid out in this pile. I offered to throw in the promo Pathrazer and let him pick another dollar rare from my folder. While this does relatively little to my profit margin, it’s a sign of good faith. Add in the fact that we had already established a trading relationship by completing two mini-trades, and my partner happily accepted my offer and picked out the Magmaw for his buddy’s casual deck.

If, instead of using this trading method, I had simply thrown all the cards into two piles and asked my partner what he thought, there’s not much chance I’m able to make the margin I did.

Large trades like this are very intimidating to new/casual players or players unfamiliar with prices. It also makes the math harder for me to work out in my head. By breaking it down I’m accomplishing objectives vital to trading for profit – Establishing trust with trade partners, making the trade easier to comprehend and maximizing my profit. If you are serious about trading for profit (and you should be) I highly suggest utilizing this method.

Onto the next trade!

His:

Lotus Cobra ($18)

Blood Crypt ($8)

Total: $26

Mine:

2x Glen Elendra Archmage ($4)

Promo Thirst for Knowledge ($5)

Promo Mulldrifter ($3)

Total: $16

Net: $10

I start out every trade by asking my trade partner to value the cards we’re interested in. All pricing is subjective, and if your partner doesn’t value a card as high or low as you do, you have every right to accept his price or offer your own. In this case, my partner assumed the Blood Crypt wasn’t worth much since its rotation from Extended. In reality, most of the shocklands have retained at least some value, and will shoot up again if Overextended becomes a reality (for those who don’t know, it’s a rumored format that would be from Mercadian Masques forward and would allegedly replace Legacy, making the Ravnica shocklands the best duals available in the format).

At this point the semifinals were nearly over, and the store manager was trying to kick out all the players not still in the tournament (even though we were all in one room anyway. Store owners, I do not recommend doing this to your customers). The guy who had been sitting next to me during the previous trade wanted my Chrome Moxes. I told him I didn’t know if we had time and that I don’t attend that shop regularly, and he was literally throwing cards at me as the manager was putting up chairs on the table we were at.

His:

4x Wall of Omens ($2)

Mutavault ($16)

3x heavily played Aether Vials ($10)

Tempest Reflecting Pool ($8)

Gaddock Teeg ($4)

Tinker ($3)

Trygon Predator ($2.50)

Bloodbraid Elf ($2.50)

Total: $74

Mine:

2x Sower of Temptation ($6)

2x Chrome Mox ($18)

Total: $52

Net: $22

As I’ve talked about before, there aren’t many times you want to “trade down.” What I mean by that is that most of the time it’s strictly better to have one $50 card than 10 $5 ones. This trade makes for one of the exceptions to that rule. There are a few reasons why in this situation I’m happy trading away the highest-priced cards (Chrome Moxes).

First of all, I don’t know how long the Mox can hold that pricetag. It’s played in basically zero relevant decks now that’s it’s rotated from Extended, and casual appeal isn’t going to hold it at $18. I don’t know exactly how much play it sees in Legacy, but my guess is it’s not enough to warrant that price. The other obvious reason is that I made a solid profit by trading them, and I’m confident the cards I picked up will make me money somewhere down the road.

So there you go. My up-and-down, trading-filled, rating-busting night ended at about 2 a.m. when the manager impatiently pushed us out of the store so he could get back to impatiently waiting for the tournament to end.

While Supplies Last! (which will be all day)

I wasn’t free for the Saturday night Magic 2011 Game Day, so a couple friends and I decided to head to a small store we had never been to before to play in their 10 a.m. tournament.

The Game Day turned out to be even more epic than the previous night. Exactly three people showed up, and we all got a free full-art Lilianas Specter and Mitotic Slime for our trouble. Obviously a little disappointing, but I can tell everyone I got in the top three and I even have the foil to prove it!

That’s all the trades for this week, but I do have one other thing I want to mention before I go. There are some exciting things coming to Quiet Speculation in the next few weeks, and one of them is an exclusive forum available to members.

One feature of the forums is a section called “rate my trade,” where members are able to post their own trading exploits. Moving forward, I’d like to pick a QS member’s trade each week to incorporate into the column, so make sure to record any trades you’re particularly proud of and detail them in our forums.

I’ll see you next week when I talk about trading for my first-ever Jace, The Mind Sculptor! Until then, you can get up-to-the-minute updates and spoilers by following @Chosler88 and @Quietspec on Twitter.

Thanks,

Corbin Hosler

Grand Prix Portland: A City Guide! (A Nut Draw Special Report)

Posted on September 2, 2010November 28, 2010 by Chris McNutt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

This week I'm departing from the charts and graphs a bit to bring you something a little different, yet familiar. You may have read Doug Linn’s amazing guide to navigating and enjoying Columbus Ohio at the recent GP and would like to see something similar about the upcoming GP Portland on Sept 10-12th. Please then come with me on a similar journey whose structure has been lifted whole sale from Doug’s extraordinary efforts, but that lacks most of Doug’s charm and thoughtfulness. As a resident of a town called Puyallup WA (near Tacoma) and having been born in Seattle, the 3-4 hour drive into Portland OR isn’t something I can be bothered with all that often and my introverted nature has deprived me accumulating the personal knowledge required for trailblazing the Portland hotspots. I will instead be relying on some web sites, knowledge of Portlandonians I’m friends with, and a host of misleading anecdotes. Still interested in what I have to say after such a ringing personal endorsement? I thought so, please read on.

The Lay of the Land

Portland is located in northwestern Oregon pretty much smack on the Washington/Oregon border. It's laid out in quadrants with the east/west division being the Willamette River which runs mostly parallel with I-5 and the north/south bisection being Burnside Street/Burnside Bridge. Be thankful that the Oregon Convention Center is on the east side of the river because as we all know the west is plagued by the turf war between Riff with his gang the Jets and Bernardo and his Sharks. I don’t know about you, but there’s no way I could walk hunched over and snapping in unison while toting a trade binder for long enough to get to the Arby’s unscathed.

[iframe http://maps.google.com/maps?q=oregon+convention+center&hl=en&cd=1&ei=Hc9YTOOHIqb6tgPT7aBJ&sig2=XiGGwis0Dj3BXz8ml23G2Q&sll=44.666189,-122.308281&sspn=2.068934,4.209791&ie=UTF8&view=map&cid=6993232033891072479&ved=0CFEQpQY&hq=oregon+convention+center&hnear=&ll=45.528245,-122.661645&spn=0.006295,0.006295&output=embed 100% 600px]View Larger Map

How To Get There

Once in the city you’ll find a very accessible public transportation system with light rail (MAX), street cars and busses which shuffle the little ants about to the interesting bits of the city. Those traveling in from Portland International Airport will have a short 15-20 minute drive to the event. Please note that there is a direct light rail MAX line from the airport to the convention center taking about 32 minutes (take the MAX “red line.” It runs from 4:45am to 11:58pm leaving every 15 minutes and is about $2.35). For those who like to keep contact with strangers to a minimum in exchange for being able to afford fewer side events, taxi and shuttle services are also available for $25-$45. There is a large MAX “free zone” which runs from several blocks east of the convention center to deep into the gang war territory on the west side. A strategically located hotel could afford you virtually free transportation while in the city. Those who want to venture outside of the free zone can do so for very little. Anyone driving in from the North or South will most likely be on I-5 (if you get to Mexico or Canada turn around, you’ve gone too far) and will have a hard time missing the otherwise useless pair of glass spires of said convention center.

[iframe http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=oregon+convention+center&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=54.269804,79.013672&ie=UTF8&hq=oregon+convention+center&hnear=&ll=45.528245,-122.661645&spn=0.071946,0.071946&layer=c&cbll=45.528648,-122.665101&panoid=7eh4KpA-MRCRQ70j_hMaJw&cbp=12,78.34,,0,-4.31&output=svembed 100% 600px]View Larger Map

If you’re coming in from the east it will likely be on I-84/US 30 right up until you pass the convention center and move onto I-5 for a better look at those spires. Anyone coming from the west by ground transportation either already knows how to get there or doesn’t understand which direction is west.
“Portland, Oregon! -- Green, Clean, Friendly, Hip, Urbane. Come to the City of Roses and compete at Grand Prix-Portland. Grand Prix-Portland is a fantastic opportunity for competitive and casual Magic players alike,” said Tim Shields of Cascade Games. Cascade Games is the wonderful PTO who will be hosting GP Portland and from whom I received much of the information herein. It’s also important to note that Portland is very bicycle friendly. The city is virtually littered with bike racks, with some being available at the convention center, and also on the light rail and busses. We have our fair share of crazy drivers up here (we blame it on people emigrating from California) so there are bike lanes on most bridges and major roads.

Where To Stay

Our benevolent PTO Tim Shields has arranged for a block of rooms for intrepid Magic goers at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown at Lloyd Center located a very convenient 3 blocks from the convention center for $89 a night (must be intrepid to qualify*). Click this link or call with the Group Rate Code “MPXS” to reserve your room (800-321-2211 or 503-234-3200). This is a great deal since it’s such a good place to stay and about $60 off. At press time there were still plenty of rooms available, and we know you’ll love the accommodations. There are also another 10+ different places to stay within 5 blocks of the event and many times that within the MAX free zone and beyond. I’ll be at the Courtyard Marriot listed under the name Garruk Wildspeaker, so please send the gift baskets there.

What To Do

Daytime
The Oregon Zoo is pretty fantastic, and as with many places in the Northwest there is near an unlimited amount of outdoor activities to tax the atrophied muscles of even the most dedicated Magic players. I think Tim put it best... “Bike/Kayak/Hike/Windsurf/Ski/Camp: Oregon is home to the great outdoors. Bike and kayak rentals are available a short distance from the Grand Prix venue. Hiking is possible within city limits (Portland’s Forest Park alone boasts 75 miles of wooded hiking trails). Excellent windsurfing is an hour’s drive away at Hood River, skiing is less than an hour’s drive away at Mt Hood, and camping is available throughout Oregon and Southwest Washington at state and national parks. If you plan to extend your trip to Oregon beyond the three days of the Grand Prix, you may want to take in some of these outdoor adventures.” Also keep in mind that there is no sales tax in Oregon so it’s finally time to stock up on carry-on items and vehicles.

Nighttime
All of the above can unsafely be enjoyed at night as well as boozing it up at some of the best places in the country. (I can’t confirm they are the best because I don’t drink and am not well travelled, but take my word for it anyway). Tim says, “Drink: Portland is a mother city for US microbrews. Portland’s oldest microbrewery, BridgePort, is located in the Pearl District. If you want to develop your own pub crawl, add in stops at Portland Brewing Company’s Taproom, Widmer Brothers Gasthaus and/or any of the pubs operated by the McMenamin Brothers.” Among the other top rated establishments we have the Bonfire Lounge located next to Stark Naked Pizza. Hopworks Urban Brewery and Basta’s Trattoria. A really great online tool for configuring your nightlife while in Portland is barflymag.com. There you will be able to navigate the hieroglyphics selection system and sculpt the perfect night.

Food and Drink

Quiet Speculation has managed to put together a couple of food deals for our readers. Any of the Magic players and fans can saunter about a block and a half north of the event to the Burgerville for a 10% discount during your visit to the city (just say you are from the Magic Grand Prix).

[iframe http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&source=embed&saddr=777+Northeast+M+L+King+Boulevard,+Portland,+OR+97232+(Oregon+Convention+Center)&daddr=1135+Northeast+M+L+King+Boulevard,+Portland,+OR+97232-2015+(Burgerville)&geocode=FbW0tgId81Sw-CHfufWre_MMYSn7EaRLrKCVVDESs-2tDYJqNg%3BFci_tgId91Ow-CHaDrkDQH0XAinfl-JfraCVVDHl24IzPmQrKg&hl=en&mra=ls&dirflg=w&sll=45.529035,-122.663205&sspn=0.00593,0.009645&ie=UTF8&layer=c&cbll=45.530945,-122.661672&panoid=HEESa9l2kvtrax8gyUkK1A&cbp=11,234.09,,0,-4.81&ll=45.5297,-122.661685&spn=0.00276,0.00003&output=svembed 100% 600px]
See the Spire? Click for larger map.

If burgers aren't your thing, travel 2 blocks east to the already well priced J Cafe who is offering a 10% discount to Quiet Speculation readers proudly mumbling the phrase "Magic Grand Prix." While they are traditionally open only on the weekdays, they may also be open during our busy event.

[iframe http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&source=embed&saddr=777+Northeast+M+L+King+Boulevard,+Portland,+OR+97232+(Oregon+Convention+Center)&daddr=533+Northeast+Holladay+Street,+Portland,+OR+97232-2082+(J+Cafe)&geocode=FbW0tgId81Sw-CHfufWre_MMYSn7EaRLrKCVVDESs-2tDYJqNg%3BFfa7tgIdM1yw-CEgGL0TtONX4SmhJzp8sqCVVDHEtXv9V33gdw&hl=en&mra=ls&dirflg=w&sll=45.52827,-122.660745&sspn=0.00593,0.009645&ie=UTF8&layer=c&cbll=45.530103,-122.659648&panoid=aOIu63onFPTTyU9OY3qOrA&cbp=11,306.1,,1,4.11&ll=45.529165,-122.660745&spn=0.00169,0.00191&output=svembed 100% 600px]
View Larger Map

Some of the other tasty but frugal Portland options include Meat Cheese Bread said to have great breakfasts under $6, Gravy with large portioned meals featuring gravy, and some of the best sandwhich’s in the city can be had at Bunk Sandwiches for about $8. Of course all of those establishments were chosen to highlight because of their names.

Quick Hits and Side Attractions

If you’ve come into town dragging the slightly disapproving significant other it’s possible that they aren’t as enthusiastic about the spectacle of card slinging that you are and you might need to suggest some other activities. As mentioned above there is The Oregon Zoo, you could take in some indie film screenings at the Northwest Film Center, a trip to the Portland Art Museum and more parks and landmarks then you can target a Doom Blade with.

Getting Your Final Preparations Ready

Between the information above and your other independent research you should have by now worked out your transportation, lodgings and meal plans. No need to bring cards with you on this trip since it’s a mostly sealed event (yep, the Friday grinders are also sealed.) There are side events though that are infinite Standard, infinite Extended, infinite Legacy, and infinite Vintage so it might not hurt to bring the cardboard (in addition to infinite booster drafts, infinite minimasters, the usual Sunday PTQ and 10 confirmed artists). Check out the Cascade Games site for all the details.

TRADITIONAL BONUS SECTION ON PARKING

If you’re not lodging close enough to walk to the event or in the MAX “free zone”, there is an onsite parking garage with a maximum daily rate of $9. When selecting an offsite parking lot, keep in mind that the GP is being held in the northeast corner of the building lined up between Pacific St and Oregon St on Martin Luther King Jr Blvd.

Event Venue

I hope to see you all out at GP Portland, please come by and say hello. I'll be there in the capacity of a judge on the 10th, playing in the main event on the 11th, and probably judging again on the 12th.

Chris McNutt

* Need not be intrepid.

The Nutt Draw: Set EV Matrix

Posted on September 1, 2010November 28, 2010 by Chris McNutt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Hello and welcome to another edition of The Nutt Draw. This week I’m going to expand on the chart and data that had previously been little more than tacked on to the end of my articles. I’ve always found the results interesting and useful and since I’ve received a few comments about what I thought of as a foot note, I decided it’s time to get a bit more serious about it.

There have been quite a few comments about my set and pack EV analysis and so I’ve reworked all the formulas from scratch (I even crashed my system and had to create them again) and intertwined the calculations more closely with all the other bits of data. I’ve also decided to make Set EV updates a part of my regular article rotation along with the Demand Matrix and Buy List Matrix.

In the old Pack EV spreadsheet I had totaled up the values of the singles in the given sets, added up the price of the packs it would take to complete one full set of each expansion, extracted the approximate value of the cards from all those packs, calculated the pack EV and compared that with retail pack pricing. This served my purposes well and it was created entirely because I was curious as to how the comparative values might shake out and change over time. Because I thought it was interesting, I reasoned that some of you might as well so I published it. In the past however, I didn’t make it a point to explain what I do with this chart outside of its creation, nor what could be done with it apart from pointing and thinking “hmmmm.” As my arch nemesis (and Washington State Champ) Joe Bono pointed out to me over this last weekend in between rounds where he co-won a GPT, I present a lot of data to dive into, but I’ve really not taken the time to lay out how it can be easily used. Going forward I’ll make an effort to explain what I use it for and also try to extrapolate how it might be put to use by others. I’d also like to ask you all to comment about how you use the information, and if there are any data points you think I’m not hitting. There may be reasons I don’t use them (including that I hadn’t thought to) but this information will help me sort the way the results are displayed in ways that are more applicable for everyone. Why am I telling you all this instead of just doing it? Well, I want to give you the reasons that a seven row, nine column spreadsheet is now a sheet with 44 active rows, nine columns and with another seven columns waiting for additional sets.

I present to you the new Set EV Matrix. (I’m not sure why I keep using the term “matrix” but it’s now thematic).

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=9&output=html&widget=true 100% 1100]

Much of the resulting data in this sheet was calculated and added just in case someone out there might want to see it (I apologize for the necessary right/left scrolling on this one). These forms aren’t interactive (yet) and so I needed to try and give any and all information that I thought someone would want to see. There are many aspects to this that I don’t personally use, but that others may prefer. For example, I like to use the Singles vs Pack percentage to tell me both which packs have the most comparative money in them as well as to suggest the course that a set might take throughout its honeymoon period while standard legal. Much of the end results of my number crunching are arrived at partially because I want to see if I could do it, and because I am looking for patterns to emerge in order to increase my understanding of the ever changing landscape. As you can see, with this new version I’ve expanded the calculations to include not only the old results, but with additional twists like auto-filtering out cards that are below $0.75. I’ve added in calculations to give us the average price of a set’s Mythics, Rares, and Uncommons. I’ve added indicators as to which Mythic, Rare, and Uncommon cards are the most expensive in each set along with their latest going eBay rate. Pack EV is now calculated in seven different and simultaneous ways including a 14 card total, sans Commons, Mythics and Rares only, independently with cards over $1.00, $0.75 and $0.50 and my favorite, with the highest priced card removed. This last one is my favorite because I like to see what kind of return I can get on random pack X if I don’t hit the number one money card. I’ve also added in the total Buy List value of the cards from each set as well as the card with the highest buy price and a re-leveled sum of the single’s Demand Index.

I’d like to draw your attention to the results of the calculations that ultimately were responsible for my system crashing. In my effort to be more complete and clear about the results I decided to try and look at this data from the perspective of someone what might want to be spoon fed some simple and easy to compare results. I tried to imagine the mind set of average Monty T. Gamer, standing in from of a staggering array of booster packs, only eying those that are standard legal (for some reason), and clutching the fiver he snuck out of him mom’s purse while she was nearly unconscious from sampling 13 consecutive “5ths of Jack.” Aside from the CPS hotline, what series of numbers could I hand Monty to make his day a bit easier? Toward the bottom of the chart you’ll see a series of figures about each set currently in Standard. I ran the numbers several different ways and struggled to display them in such a way as to make them accessible and useful to more people. It’s still a bit math heavy, but these figures show you what your chances are of getting the chase card, as well as the chances of pulling cards of incrementing values between $1 and $50. I’ve also tried to take a little of the guess work out of selecting which boosters to purchase with the chart below by ranking the packs according to several metrics.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=15&output=html&widget=true 100% 300]

The order of the sets in this chart tell us how ranked against each other on average in 14 of the calculated categories including the average prices in each rarity, Pack EV calculations, % chance of opening certain values of cards as well as the most sought after cards from the scraped buy lists.

All of this is to say that there are many ways of looking at and tweaking the data, and I expect that this list to be comprehensive enough to get us by until the next update. Of course, if I’ve missed anything, or you’d like to see it presented in another way, please let me know. Hopefully this massive amount of information will be useful on its own, as well as spark an idea of what you each might really like to see.

Though some of these points aren’t explicitly listed as figures, I can tell from the data provided that if I were to purchase 80 packs of Worldwake (the statistical average for a full set) and for some reason didn’t open a Jace, the Mind Sculptor, my total value of those packs would be about $190 vs $257 if I had opened the Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Missing that one card drops the value of my pulls by almost 26%, and since the chances of opening a Jace, the Mind Sculptor card is about 1 in 80 packs (2.2 consecutive boxes) grabbing an occasional random Worldwake pack is significantly more risky than the other sets in terms of likely value. The Worldwake EV isn’t that much different than the other sets, but 1/3 of the value on a complete set is tied up in a single card.

Whether you’d like to know which two or three packs you should throw in with your next singles purchase or you’re going to blow your inheritance on cases of Magic, this data is for you. Give it a look, and the next time your BFF is reaching for that pack of Alara Reborn you can feel a bit more justified for slapping it out of his/her sweaty gamer hands for not getting M11 instead.

Chris McNutt
@fatecreatr on twitter

Dream Cache – Anticipating SOM

Posted on August 29, 2010November 28, 2010 by Douglas Linn

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Scars of Mirrodin launches in a month (October 1st, to be specific) and it is supposed to be packed full of excellent artifacts. We know scant little about this set at this time, but we can gather a few clues, put them together and then get a good idea of what to speculate on.

First, let’s look at the SOM plant from M11, Steel Overseer. It’s the artifact “lord” that distributes +1/+1 counters to all of its friends. From this, I predict a lot of small artifact creatures that are worth pumping up, and possibly a legit strategy from it. I also anticipate that +1/+1 counters are going to be relevant. For example, we have cards like Triskelion in Standard; I predict more to come along. We could see cards in the vein of Etched Oracle, too. If these cards end up mattering, we should be thinking about what already exists that benefits from these counters. Trike comes to mind, of course, but it is already heavily printed and highly unlikely to be relevant in constructed formats (unless they reprint Mishra's Workshop…). Absent Sunburst coming back and bringing Etched Oracle with it, we probably cannot make much from the counters themselves. [Let's not forget the Proliferate ability on Contagion Clasp that spreads all kinds of counters! --kbr]

However, we have an incredible engine that creates these counters, a tournament superstar that can come back again to sling piles of +1/+1 counters onto any of its artifact buddies. I’m talking about Arcbound Ravager.

Ravager is only legal in Vintage and Legacy, but both formats have an abundance of cheap artifacts. If we see a playable artifact creature that utilizes these counters, Ravager is the best way to make it come alive. Think about a card that says something to the effect of “if this has 8 +1/+1 counters on it, [do something cool].” Take another turn? Double its counters? Putting together a pile of counters on your Ravager is relatively simple, and it can pass them along with its Modular ability.
There is a high chance we will see something, across three sets, that makes the counters good, so I suggest trading for them and even shelling out cash for them if you have some in your slush fund to spend. MOTL has the finished Ebay prices hovering near $8, which is a lot to spend on a card that isn’t seeing play… yet. That said, it’s at a neutral price right now – the value is not affected by any “noise trading” that would drive its price up due to speculation. If you can snag them this week or the next at $8, you’ll be setting up a solid investment that isn’t going to go down in price. If, on the unlikely chance that it doesn’t get bumped up from SOM, you can clear them out for what you paid on them.

Magus_of_the_Unseen — Fifty Cents to be exact.

Anticipating that we’ll see artifacts pop up more in Eternal formats thanks to SOM, I see another old hit popping up, too. It’s a rare from Ice Age that has seen some attention in Vintage, thanks to its power at fighting Time Vault. Magus of the Unseen can take your opponent’s best tools and ram them back at him. Again, if a predominantly artifact-based deck pops up in an Eternal format, Magus is a good way for decks like Noble Fish and others to battle. Magus of the Unseen costs approximately nothing, and I would be comfortable getting a dozen copies in the case that the Magus becomes relevant.

We have also seen the Sword of Body and Mind spoiler in From The Vault: Relics, which hints at the extension and conclusion of the enemy-color Sword cycle in SOM. We are guaranteed some good equipment, and though I know we won’t see another Jitte, we could easily see another Basilisk Collar. The best way to dig up Equipment in Standard at the moment is Stoneforge Mystic. We could even see big pieces of equipment that are worth cheating out with its second ability (which, to date, has been used a total of twice in the history of its printing).

The "Stone-Blade Mystic 'is currently at $3.50 on MOTL. That’s a fine price to pick up some anticipation copies, knowing that it could easily double in price if there is a piece of equipment worth grabbing. Ranger of Eos, for example, fluctuated by six dollars or more during its run in Standard and Extended, and Stoneforge seems to have the same erratic behavior. It is a splashable card and I see it being played in Standard and probably Double Standard, when that format becomes a Real Thing. You can also count on casual players to demand easy ways to get their goofy, huge equipment into play. My call is that you should pick up Mystics up to $4 and dump them if they go past $6. They are a medium-term hold. That is to say, I would hold them for about 4 months, so we can see at least two sets of SOM; if they have not taken off by then, dump them if you need the cash, or hold onto them if you can afford to so you can capitalize off of the third SOM set if there is something juicy in it. If SOM doesn’t make Stoneforges take off, they won’t drop in price by much, but there will not really be a good reason to hold onto them at that point.

All we have to go on regarding SOM is a few little teasers; as we know more, we will find more cards to mix them with. I’ve given you a few fish today, but I also want to leave you with some fishing techniques. First off, make sure to check magicthegathering.com at midnight, every night, if you can once spoilers are revealed. If you do not have diehard friends who are also checking and figuring out combos, check on the followup discussion threads (and watch @quietspec on Twitter!) to see if there are any worthwhile combo interactions. Periodically, check MTGSalvation for posted cards on the SOM spoiler. It’s worth dropping by the Rumor Mill on the forums; though the cards are unsubstantiated and you can be burned on rumors, you can sometimes find cards that end up working out with cheap, existing cards.

Finally, some quick hits that might turn out to be good with another artifact block: Thada Adel, Acquisitor can yank out opponents’ artifacts and equipment, exiling them even if you don’t want to use them yourself. Stonehewer Giant is legal in Extended and can fetch up a whole pile of goodies. Two more fish for you!
-Doug Linn

Whinston’s Whisdom – Reader Questions and Bonus Tips

Posted on August 28, 2010November 28, 2010 by Noah Whinston

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

What a whirlwind of a week. With school starting up again for me in just a few days, and quite a few AP Summer assignments not completed, it looks like I’ll be quite busy. But not too busy to bring you another installment of Whinston’s Whisdom, here on Quiet Speculation! While last week I talked about the basics of trading on MTGO, today I want to go into much more detail, talking about specific cards I’ve been speculating on online, as well as doing my best to answer some reader questions from last week. Let’s start off with those:

Corbin Hosler: “Having a Mac, I’ve never jumped into MTGO…”

While Corbin did not phrase this as a question, I still feel this is an important topic to address. Many people shy away from MTGO, because they have operating systems that are incompatible with the software. However, there are many programs available on the market which allow you to run a Windows program on your Mac.

The Good

Boot Camp: Though I do not have personal experience with this, many associates have assured me that it works. Essentially, it allows you to restart your computer, except rebooting it with a Windows operating system rather than a Mac. This then allows you to use Windows programs, including the most important of all, MTGO.

Parallels Desktop: This is what I personally use to run MTGO on my Mac. Parallels partitions your computer, allowing you to run Windows and Mac software side by side. While it does cause the computer to run a bit slower, I feel this is a worthwhile sacrifice in order to be able to access all of your documents already present on your computer, as well as not having to reboot your computer everytime you want to grind some games. While it can cost you up to $90, not including the cost of the Windows software itself, Parallels is still a great tool, and would be my pick for anyone who wants to run MTGO on their Mac

The Bad

Wine: Wine is supposed to be able to run windows software on a Mac without needing to purchase a Windows operating system. I downloaded a free trial to test it out before I purchased Parallels, and was unable to use it. The instructions were nearly non-existent, so either I did something wrong, or it just didn’t work. Crossover is another program that should let you run Windows based games from a Mac. Unfortunately, it does not support MTGO. Not a good use of $40, I can tell you that.

While it may be inconvenient to run MTGO on a Mac, there are several ways to do it without having to go out and buy a whole new computer.

MtgVeteran: “I’ve been wanting to set up my own bot for a while, but most sites that sell them look sketchy. I want to be able to take care of bug fixes and know how to properly operate the program before dumping a few hundred dollars blindly over the internet.”

I have to say, I agree with this sentiment completely. I would never endorse putting your entire MTGO account, and likely a significant amount of value, in the hands of an automated program unless you can be 100% sure that nothing will happen. Before picking a bot, I talked to several friends who have used, or still use bots. However, bot websites will almost never hand over the code that is used for their bot. if you want to have a more hands on approach to your bot, and you are skilled enough with technology (which I personally, am not), feel free to try and build your own. If you are successful, you may even be able to turn this into an entirely new way to create profit: by selling or renting your bots over the internet.

Andrea: “what is the cost of setting up a bot? how much will weight the cost of electric energy? how long it will take to determine price variation? is it possible to speculate over few low cost rares if bot’s buy prices are so low?”

To answer these questions one by one—

1) Personally, I rent a bot (I’m going to leave out the name of the website so as not to endorse a particular vendor over another) for the cost of $60/month + 4% of tickets made+a fraction of a ticket whenever I download a new price list. This bot is able to buy, sell and trade all cards, and has a downloadable price list, which I can then adjust to my preferences. From the same site, it is possible to rent a “bulk” bot, i.e. a bot that sells X rares for 1 ticket, Y uncommons for 1 ticket, etc. my decision to rent a bot vs. buying one is influenced by the fact that I am rather new to MTGO selling, and if I decide to become more heavily involved in MTGO dealing then I will look into purchasing a permanent bot

2) To be honest I don’t know the answer to this question. As I do not pay my house’s electricity bills, I have no idea what it would cost to run the computer for long periods at a time. I would direct this question to some of the other well informed writers on this site.

3) Price variation on the bot I use is fairly easy to manipulate. Every 12 hours, the bot website publishes a price list which is downloaded onto the bot. However, as the dealer, I can set a percentage by which to vary the price. For example, I can sell Primeval Titan for 10% above its official buy list price and buy it for 20% below that price. This percentage will remain constant through any price changes and updates. This can also be set card by card or applied to sets and rarities as a whole, which it makes it quite hands-on and efficient to use.

4) This is one of the major problems with speculating on MTGO if you don’t want to make the investment of a bot. Because it there is no Ebay like function in the client, you must be online if you want to trade with other users, and without a bot, this can involve long hours in front of the computer screen. However, bots’ buy prices are very low, partly because the number of online “Draft only” players is so high. These players are only looking for a way to convert their drafted cards to cash quickly before hopping back into another draft. They really don’t care about half of a ticket here or there. I’ll put this as straightforwardly as possible: in order to make a significant profit on MTGO, you have to be selling to players. While there are rare occasions where you can still make a profit selling to bots, this requires an unusually large jump in price (such as the price jump in Bitterblossom and other Lorwyn cards when the new rotation of the Extended format was announced), which doesn’t come around very often. even looking at current hot cards like Serra Ascendant (which I will bring up later) or Avenger of Zendikar, if you were to use bot buy functions to try and liquidate your stock, the profit would be less than a third of what you would make if you sold to players.

Well, those are all the questions I received from last week’s article, and it turns out that my answers took up much more of my article than I expected. So I’ll just round out this article with some MTGO tips of the week:

Tip #1: Titans

All members of M2011’s Titan cycle have been shooting up recently. Primeval Titan has gone up by 4-5 tix over a week and a half, Inferno Titan doubled in price after US Nationals, while Frost Titan increased by 50%. The 2 members of this family less affected have been the Grave and Sun varieties. Frankly, I would not be looking at investing in Grave Titan at the moment, as Black is quickly becoming the worst color in Standard. Especially after the rotation of Jund, I just can’t see Grave Titan fitting in anywhere unless some truly heroic Black cards are printed in Scars.

Sun Titan on the other hand, should be commanding more than its current 4 ticket price. While U/W Control may not be the top dog it once was, it’s a more than playable deck which will conveniently enough carry over through the rotation, so Sun Titan could be a worthwhile buy

Tip #2: Steel Overseer

Ah, the sweet smell of speculation. With Scars of Mirrodin almost certainly being another artifact centered block, Steel Overseer’s price has been getting a nice bump from people sure that it will be the next Vampire Nocturnus: utterly useless in the context in which it was printed, but becoming infinitely more powerful with a future set. While I am not a member of R&D, I would still call it a safe bet that Steel Overseer will be worth a significant more once Scars of Mirrodin is released.

This is where having separate MTGO and paper markets can be profitable. In paper, this speculation has made Steel Overseer’s price too high (around $5) to reliably make any profit unless it is the next Arcbound Ravager. On the other hand, on MTGO, Steel Overseer sits at a cheap .6-.8 tickets, the perfect level to make some cash once Scars is released. It’s extremely possible that the Overseer will get a boost with Scars even if it never sees competitive play, just because the hype just prior to the release will artificially inflate the price.

Tip #3: Serra Ascendant

On last week’s article, I was just a day or two off Serra Ascendant becoming the new “it” card. Because of Conley Woods’ success with his Mono White Weenie Lifegain deck, Soul Sisters, at U.S Nationals, many people in love with this archetype have been trying to get their hands on Serra Ascendant. While the archetype cannot reliably survive Shards rotation (the loss of Ranger of Eos removes the deck’s only source of card advantage), it is wildly popular at the moment, mainly because of the public’s infatuation with anything off the beaten path that can also win.

Aside: if you don’t understand my slight cynicism, it is only because I respect Conley too much to abide hearing his deck’s called “bad” when they fail to win after their original tournament. From reading Conley’s articles, it is evident that he builds decks to win specific tournaments, and does not expect them to become staples of the metagame afterwards. All the “rogue spikes” who copy his decks and fail to win with them blame the deck itself rather than their faulty interpretation of its purpose. End aside

As such, the Ascendant has gone up from 1 to 2 tix on MTGO, not a huge price increase, but in paper, the Ascendnt has shot up about %400-500, up to $5. Personally, I picked up about 60 copies for $2.50 each, and plan to double up on them as soon as possible. For anyone who has also speculated on them, I can only recommend turning them over for profit as soon as possible, because I don’t expect this bubble to last for long.

And we’ve come to the end of yet another article here at Whinston’s Whisdom. I hope this one was as informative and enjoyable as the previous ones, and I’ll be back with another next week.

At the moment, I’m looking into establishing a full MTG dealership for myself, but am just in the information gathering stage. If I’m able to talk to enough experienced dealers between now and next week, I may devote next article to putting some of their thoughts and advice down on paper (figuratively at least).

Also, a new feature for those of you interested, if you have any questions, longer perhaps than you would feel comfortable putting in the comments, feel free to email me at mtgplayer@sbcglobal.net, and I’ll be happy to answer them. While I can’t claim to be as experienced in the world of finance as some of the other august writers here, I think I can bring a new viewpoint to certain topics.

But until then, keep your head straight and avoid the hype,

--Noah Whinston

The Revenue Review – Makes and Misses

Posted on August 28, 2010November 28, 2010 by Corbin Hosler

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

I know the last few weeks I haven’t had many trades for you guys, so last week I set out to remedy that.

My plan was to hit up a Friday Night Magic with higher stakes than most. A store on the other side of town where I don’t go often was having a special tournament, and I thought it was a great opportunity to both play and trade. The entry fee was $10, and the winner received a complete set of Rise of the Eldrazi. Then on Saturday I would attend the M11 Game Day at another, small store that has the city’s only Vintage gaming.

The Friday tournament itself went terribly (I played Shaman Naya for the first time, went 1-3, and promptly dropped 35 rating points), but the trading more than made up for it.

The usual bustle before tournaments start is a playground for savvy traders. I took advantage of the fact that other players needed only a few cards to complete their 75, and I told them I needed a healthy margin on each trade to make it worth my time.

The first guy I traded with was desperately in need of just one more Arid Mesa and wanted to trade me his Scalding Tarn for it. I told him I needed something more because I was breaking my playset of Mesas, and he agreed to throw in a Steel Overseer to complete the trade.

His:
Scalding Tarn ($14)

Steel Overseer ($5)

Total: $19

Mine:

Arid Mesa ($14)
Net: $5

Remember a few weeks ago when I mentioned the gems you can pick up just by scouring draft tables after the night’s over? This next trade is the fruit of me doing just that for the last few weeks.

His:

Great Sable Stag ($2.50)

Mine:

3x Combust ($.50)

Total: $1.50

Net: $1

This was the first of three trades I made with this player (Adam). One of the common tenets among trading articles is that it pays to make connections with your trade partners. Adam was grateful that someone had the cards he needed for the tournament, and told me he wanted to trade with me again before we left for the night.

The most interesting part of the next trade was what didn’t happen. I’m always upfront when trading that I’m out to make a profit, and I let players make their own decisions about what they do and don’t want to trade. If my partner asks me how expensive a particular card is, I tell him what it’s at online and what I’m comfortable trading at.

In this case, my partner wanted a few copies of Linvala, Keeper of Silence, but was only willing to value them at $5 apiece, whereas I put them at about $10, as Fauna Shaman Naya was really taking off and Linvala completely shuts that deck down. We went back and forth for awhile before finally deciding to just put the cards back and accept that we couldn’t come together on prices. This isn’t a desirable outcome, but we were both clear there weren’t any hard feelings.

As we were putting the cards back into the binders, I pointed at the Luminarch Ascensions he valued at a dollar(They go for $3.50 on coolstuffinc.com) and asked if there was any way we could work something out. He threw back a pile of cards he said didn’t he care about and let me pick a few.

His:

Ranger of Eos ($4)

Consuming Vapors($4)

Brittle Effigy ($2.50)

Total: $10.50

Mine:

2x Luminarch Ascension ($3.50)

Total: $7

Net: $3.50

After my embarrassing tournament finish, I stuck around while the Top 8 started play and ran into a friend of mine looking to get into Extended and Legacy, and desperate to trade his Primeval Titan to do it.

His:

Primeval Titan ($50)

Mine:

Creeping Tar Pit ($3.50)

Sensei's Divining Top ($8)

Cabal Therapy ($5)

Coralhelm Commander ($4)

Daze ($2.50)

Mistbind Clique ($4)

Secluded Glen ($4)

Cryptic Command ($13)

Total: $44

Net: $6

I gave up some cards here I think are going to go up in value come Extended season (the Lorwyn cards), for the Titan, which has mostly peaked. I did so because I knew I could flip the Titan for a nice margin, and made it my new goal to do so before the end of the night.

In between rounds I ran into Adam, who told me he would trade for the Titan after the next round. I’m going to blame my terrible play (including forgetting to fetch a Sejiri Steppe) on my excitement about the impending trade.

His:

Tarmogoyf ($60) (Coolstuff has this at $80, SCG at $50, so I split on the low end).

Heavily played Survival of the Fittest ($23)

Total: $83

Mine:

Primeval Titan ($50)

3x Destructive Force ($5)

2x Archive Trap ($2)

Total: $67

Net: $16

I think I gave up some short-term profits here to pick up these Legacy staples. I could have easily made a much larger profit on the Titan if I wanted, but I got excited about owning my first-ever Tarmogoyf and might have missed a chance to soak even more value out of Standard’s hottest mythic. Overall, I’m very happy with the trade I made, but when you have a card as hot as the Titan, you need to ride it as far as you can.

Adam was so happy that I traded him such popular Standard cards that he was ready to ship me more Legacy cards that had been rotting in his binder.

His:

Umezawa's Jitte ($15)

Gaddock Teeg ($4)

2x Sensei's Divining Top ($8)

Grim Monolith ($30)

Misdirection ($10)

3x Cabal Therapy ($5)

Total: $90

Mine:

2x Linvala, Keeper of Silence ($8)

2x Awakening Zone ($5.50)

2x Ajani Goldmane ($7)

Total: $41

Net: $49

There are couple things I want to talk about in this trade. The first is the pricing we used, and the errors we made. I don’t play Legacy. Never have, though I would like to. What this means is that I’m very unfamiliar with the prices on Legacy cards. I know what is played, but haven’t paid much attention to the prices before.
This led to some huge errors in our pricing. For starters, we both valued the Grim Monolith at about $10, and the Misdirection and Cabal Therapys at $2.

After the trade, someone told me the Monolith was at $30, and I didn’t believe him until he showed me on his phone. I immediately went back to Adam and informed him of the news and offered to let him grab a few more cards from my binder. I’ve talked before about treating your trade partners right, and I feel it’s incredibly important to do so, even when it sucks for you. In this case, he declined, saying that the Monolith was doing nothing for him in his binder, and was happy with the trade we made.

Despite his attitude, I feel bad about this trade because I misrepresented card prices, something I don’t believe in. I have no problem making profits on trades, nor do I have a problem valuing a card higher or lower than its listed price. But I will always tell my partners what the card is retailing at online before telling them what I value it at, and in this case I was off by a wide margin on several cards.

My conscience kicks in anytime I’m approaching a 100 percent margin on a trade (that is, my net profit is higher than the cards I traded away), and at that point I try to go out of my way to even up the trade, even if my partner is happy with what we have.

Looking back, this trade reinforced a few lessons for me:

If in doubt, look it up. I usually adapt to my partner’s preferences regarding trades. If they want to look up every card online, that’s fine with me. If they want to trade by rarity symbol, no problem. Ebay prices? Sure. Which card has prettier art? Uh, I guess (as long as I get the Save Life. But when both parties are unsure of a price, it’s better for everyone in the long run to us an iPhone to look it up (A borrowed one, since my cell phone is about a million years old).
Know what you are trading away/for. Both of us admitted when we began trading that we didn’t know much about Legacy prices, and that hurt us both in the end. He lost value in his cards, and I violated a few of my personal trading principles. If too many of these trading “accidents” happen to you, your trade partners will begin to lose faith in you and you can develop a bad reputation. I’ve seen players slowly be pushed out of a store because the regulars there don’t trust them, and as a result, don’t like them. This is something you need to avoid at all costs.
Be aware of perception. Though my partner accepted the trade even after we found out about the Monolith, that doesn’t mean everyone at the store did. It’s possible some people think I intentionally ripped this guy off, even though that was far from my intent. Your reputation will precede you in Magic, and if you are labeled a dirty trader, you will pay a price.

I hope you guys can take something positive from my mistakes in that trade, as I know I will.

That’s all the space I have this week. Next week I’ll talk about the rest of the night and the epic Game Day I attended after that.

Thanks,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Flash of Hindsight – Reading the Runes

Posted on August 27, 2010November 28, 2010 by David Heilker

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Reading the Runes

An important skill in FoH-style acquisition, is the ability to see a decklist at a marquee event, and know the cards to pick up. At U.S. Nationals, we had a really cool field which broke into an unorthodox Top 8.

Dredgevine (2x), Mythic Conscription, Naya Force, Pyromancer Ascension, RDW, Mono-effing Green Eldrazi Ramp (with Strap!), U/W Control. When is the last time you saw a Top 8 in the U.S. that was this diverse?

Diversity: The easiest way to catch cooties in the workplace

Roughly 2-3 nevers ago, that’s when.

There has been a dynamic shift in the metagame here, and while it can only likely last until Shards rotates (and hokey smoke, Bullwinkle – NO BLOODBRAID ELF IN TOP 8!) it can certainly be an indication of strategies to watch out for in the Standard format which will develop with the introduction of Scars of Mirrodin (I’m looking at you Mono-Green). So the question becomes not what to pick up now (a good quick flip of Serra Ascendant notwithstanding), but what to pick up while you can for its “mobility” in the upcoming Standard. What card or cards am I talking about?

Serra Ascendant, ain’t that card.

Before I venture into additions to our portfolio, I’m going to posit a guess on cards you need to be picking up right now so you aren’t left broke and alone, crying over a tub of Chubby Hubby ice cream sobbing “Why?!” as you recall this very paragraph in a month.

Eldrazi Monument – are you effing kidding me? Get these while you can for less than $10. Trade for ‘em, whatever. It’s unreal powerful, and it’s going to only get more powerful.
Eldrazi Temple/ Eye of Ugin – Kolos’ deck is one of the only decks which (almost entirely, save Rampant Growth) survives rotation. The same conventional wisdom as before the release of Rise applies: one-to-two Eye’s, and a playset of Temples. Just remember the prices of Eye of Ugin before Rise came out, and we can anticipate the prices being fairly astronomical; the card is finally, you know, playable.
Legendary Eldazree – these bros are exceptionally cheap right now, due to everyone’s collective disappointment in the absurd costs of Kozilek Butcher of Truth, Ulamog the Infinite Gyre, and Emrakul the Aeons Torn. Though I don’t see an insanely high value on any of them, I wouldn’t want to pay $10 for something in a month that I can get for $4 today. Pick up the Eldrazi as throw-ins to even out trades while you still can.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor – I shouldn’t need to throw this in here, but all of you herp-derps out there who are complaining about J.B.’s stupid-high price should consider the following: his price won’t drop when he rotates from Standard (he’s played in every format), and he’s like 100 tix on MODO, and he’s the freaking best card printed since Standard was a format. He’ll be $100 IRL when there is literally only one removal spell which will kill him after rotation (Vampire Hexmage – okay, okay – Lightning Bolt and other burn spells sorta – but you lose Maelstrom Pulse, Oblivion Ring, et al). Planeswalkers will be harder to deal with in Scars Standard, presumably, and so the best (by a margin of not-even-kinda-freaking-close) should endure. I don’t want people to complain to me when they didn’t pick him up at $70 and he’s $106, and don’t trade or sell your Jaces. Seriously. That would be stupid. And you don’t want to be a dummy, do you son?
Lotus Cobra – I don’t think this will stay under $20 for long, and a playset is what you need. Just get these, who knows what kinda chicanery we’ll want to be ramping out after rotataion. Lotus Cobra is a rockstar, it’s a rugged mother-effer, and you’ll need ‘em like you need a valium when your girlfriend wants to see the new Nicholas Sparks flick.
Vengevine – Sewiouswy stwong bad. Green is the most powerful color right now, thanks largely to Lotus Cobra, and this guy is one of the better green cards. (For the record, thanks to Cobra, Jace is green).

That’s what you need now, for later to play. There’s obviously a lot of differentiation in what you need to pay. There are some big events coming up: The SCG opens as well as the Open Series Championship, The TCGPlayer opens, and any local stuff on the backside, it’s time to get the stuff you need to sling with the dealers, because if you follow my advice above, you won’t be short of cards to sling with fellow mages.

Some of the cards that people have been picking up are Serra Ascendant, which is cute, and probably worth owning, but absolutely unlikely to be a power-house following rotation – we lose Soul Warden and the deck was really a metagame choice – sort of a glass cannon, and not one we are likely (I feel) to see ad infinitum in the interim.

There is another though. While Dredgevine will be unlikely to survive rotation (at least in its current iteration – we lose Extractor Demon and Sedraxis Alchemist), the sneak-up on you all-star from the tournament is Renegade Doppelganger. This card is under $1 almost everywhere, and you can probably get ‘em as bulk. I’ll tell you what – Joey Pasco of YO! MTG Taps! called it. It’s a hasty version of any non-Legendary creature you put onto the battlefield – for 1U. Vengevine plus this seems fairly absurd, and we’re only scratching the surface. Add in 187 abilities, and a Jace the Mind Sculptor, or some other high-quality bounce and you have doubled your effect. I dunno if Pasco was the first person to say this (or it was someone who said it at Nationals) but I’ll give Joey the credit, because he’s one of the greatest and nicest human beings on the planet – It’s the best creature anywhere on any curve, because it’s already there, doubling the output of your more expensive cards, especially those with abilities. Pick these up. If you can get them for $0.25, get 10.

It’s the savvy trader who was able to make money this past weekend on Serra Ascendant, and that’s the kind of skill set we want to foster in my column. I think by now most of the people who read me repeatedly are starting to develop this skill set. If you have specific questions on how I manage (or attempt) to make these predictions, please post them in the comments. The best reward as a writer is getting feedback on what I say (no matter how harsh it gets), so I encourage you to get down there, and post.

Current Portfolio: Between 5-10 Renegade Doppelganger4x Stoneforge Mystics , 4x Goblin Guides, and 12x Armament Masters, 2x Lim Duls Vault, $50.00 (approx.).

Current Performance: Static, but Goblin Guide has allegedly gone up a little bit.

Thanks for reading, see you next week and in the comments. Until next time, may your favorite color be green

The Nutt Draw: Monthly Demand Matrix Update

Posted on August 25, 2010November 28, 2010 by Chris McNutt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

It’s time again for a look at the Demand Matrix. What is the Demand Matrix? Is it what you call the line of fanboys waiting for the IMAX showing of the movie The Matrix in 3D? No not really, I don’t have that kind of special effects budget (and would probably be right there in that same line waiting).

The Demand Matrix is a list of cards and a scattering of numbers arranged in an attempt to show us what the most popular cards are in a given Magic playing format. By taking the total quantity of the sales of each card, multiplying it by the average price of that card and then dividing that figure by the card with the largest total figure we get a new figure that gives us the relative demand of every card in a given subset. When these values are sorted we are left with a list of cards whose popularity has essentially been voted on by all our collective dollars spent. The value that is assigned to each of these cards is called the Demand Index.

My current source of data is eBay sales as collected from a 3rd party. I hope to learn enough Python to pull my own data because there are more tweaks I’d like to perform on it then I really can right now. The resulting values tell us how popular a given card is with only a nod given to its asking price. Part of the reason this was originally calculated was to see if the price of certain high priced cards was mathematically justified. There are several interesting by-product results this data shows us. Two weeks ago we applied each card’s Demand Index value to a collection of buy-lists to give us an indication of which cards are most sought by stores, but were also in least demand for purchase on the secondary market. Thus, we found certain cards that we might not have wanted, but hadn’t thought to sell.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=10&output=html 100% 635px]

As you can see there hasn’t been a lot of movement on the top end of the spectrum. Baneslayer Angel seems to be making a small come back and Jace, the Mind Sculptor is again ahead of Primeval Titan. Perhaps the titan’s uses are too limited for him to retain the top spot? Obstinate Baloth has jumped quite a few spots and though its greatness is fairly meta dependent, it remains a card to be watched. Garruk Wildspeakers stock is also on the rise, which makes sense with so many other great green cards coming up. Knight of the Reliquary is on its way down as we move toward rotation which seems fairly intuitive. Abyssal Persecutor has taken a really large dive in popularity. Maybe there was just a spike in its use recently? I’d also like to make a quick note that I’m now referencing relevant Buy List prices for the top 30 in the Demand Matrix.

This week we’re going to also look at which cards have had the largest changes in their demand (Demand Index) from the monthly totals to the weekly totals.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&hl=en&single=true&gid=7&output=html&widget=true 100% 635px]

Here we can see the cards that have shown the most movement in their relative demand over the last week as compared to their relative demand over the last month. This gives us an indication of how the popularity of the cards might be waxing and waning. A few of the higher profile cards from M11 seem to be on the decline. This makes a lot of logical sense since the M11 pack EV is still comparatively high and we should be starting to bury the cards which were overpriced and/or too specific in use and making a little more room for the stars of the show. Time Reversal, Nantuko Shade, and Steel Overseer are all taking a hit in the volume being acquired and their values should follow the same pattern soon. The largest gain in popularity seems to be Baneslayer Angel, and you might remember that I had previously speculated that it would come back up because the pricing is more affordable now than it has been for a year and people are going to want to complete their play sets. Respect also seems to be rising a bit for Frost Titan which I think is good. He’s a more subtle titan in some ways, but still very good in the right setting and deserves better than the $3 price I’ve seen him traded at.

Looking over some of the buy prices I’ve incorporated and comparing them with their demand movement and eBay sale prices it seems that now might be a good time to offload those Noble Hierarch cards you might have laying around. If your interest is primarily in Standard, keep in mind that they rotate soon, and you should be able to get a decent value.

Based on some feedback I received I have also added a small calculation to the Pack EV sheet. In the last line you will now see how much you’d have to pay for a box of each set in order to make a 50% profit from cracking packs and selling them. This of course doesn’t account for any possible overhead you might have in eBay fees and such, but it’s a guideline for those interested.

[iframe https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AukC5EWiTvOpdE1fQjE4bFdmMHJ5ZE84d2tNbjhsN2c&single=true&gid=9&output=html 600 300]

As always, please let me know what other kinds of comparisons you’d like to see and if I am able, I’ll crunch up the numbers.

Chris McNutt

Write to Reid 8/22/10

Posted on August 22, 2010November 28, 2010 by Kelly Reid

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Welcome to another edition of Write to Reid, Quiet Speculation's mailbag column where you get to pick my brain and get answers to all the burning questions about Magic, Trading, Buying and Selling you may have. If you'd like your question answered, shoot it to kelly@quietspeculation.com and I'll answer my favorite ones each time.

I am not the best person at ‘trading for profit’ mostly because most of the players in my community are stone cold sharks. However, I have enough money saved up to be starting my own retail store (Magic, Warhammer, DnD, board games, and a high-tech gaming zone (top end computers, monitors, big screen tv’s and comfy chairs)). Even though I didn’t make the money trading magic cards, do you think I can be successful as a Magic and gaming retailer? -- Dan

Dan, you're not ready to consider a retail store unless you have more money than sense. Show me how having big screen TVs and top-dollar PCs converts into profitability and I'll reconsider, but a gaming store needs only a few basic things to succeed - knowledgable, friendly employees, a wide selection of products including single cards, some tables and chairs, and a community. Throwing money at a store is about the worst mistake you can make, and I strongly urge you to reconsider. You'll sink 4 figures into each PC and TV, and that's money you will never see again. If you charge an obnoxious $5/hr to game on the "high end PCs", you'd need to amass 300 hours of play per machine to make $1500, which can buy you a very nice desktop these days. Avoid PC gaming like the mother-loving plague. If you are talking about stone cold sharks and not including yourself in the discussion, don't even consider going into business.

In a Mananation article you said to pick up FTV: Relics, without question. You can find them for $100 on ebay pretty easily, and I was wondering if that is a good price at which to pick them up, and if one should then break them up to trade/sell or keep the thing sealed and try to resell it later? --Sean from Minneapolis

I would not encourage you or anyone else to buy them at $100 each. Dealers are not buying them that highly, and while they may eventually sell for more, I'd not pay more than $50 or so for them. Obviously buy as many at MSRP as you can, but that seems pretty hard for most people. In general, sealed box sets with small print runs sell for more sealed than opened, but I usually break a copy for my own EDH decks. Otherwise, just keep it sealed!

With scars coming, what is your best advice on getting max value from the new cards? Preorder singles, crack cases, or buy the 4xcomplete set? -Scotty from Toronto

Scott, that's a tough question to answer without seeing the full set spoiled, but in general, I like to bust cases open as a player. The 4x complete set is a luxury, but retailers need to price in the labor to open, build and sort these sets so it will be more expensive than cracking a case. I find that 6 boxes of a large set or 4 boxes of a small set will do the job well. You will get a playset of rares and 1-3 of each mythic rare, and you'll have trade fodder and spare non-rares. It's a pain to sort it, but I feel like that's overridden by the fact that you can call all your friends over and draft/sealed deck the entire case out and play a ton of Magic while opening it. Considering that value, you can usually recruit friends to sort too! All that said, I'd go with a case or so.

Regarding From the Vault: Relics. Which cards do you THINK will drop the most in value after its foil reprint? Especially Aether Vial, and Mox Diamonds? --Eric

I don't think FTV will effect prices at all. There are so few released. The most a single store will get is 18. Thus, there just aren't enough new cards being put into circulation to screw with prices. People who want the FTV cards want them for the alternate art, the foils, or just for completion. I haven't noticed a big change in the existing cards, so I see no reason for that to change now.

A common theme for trading for “profit” is to not be attached to the cards you’re trading. But what’s a good strategy for trying to acquire those expensive staples that you want to keep for yourself? Think of it in terms of multiple mini Pack to Power quests? When should you “bank” a card to your collection? Etc… --WombyDance

This is something I struggle with. You have to think of your trade binder as a business, and taking an expensive staple in should be like cutting yourself a paycheck. You should have a running idea of what your profitability is, so you can usually figure out if you need to be building more equity or taking cards out for your own nefarious purposes. As a trader, as long as your binder is well-stocked at all times, it's not an issue. I prefer to keep those cards available anyway, just in case someone is willing to grossly overpay for a Force of Will. I have no problem asking an extra 20% because I feel like keeping it.

What do you think will happen to the the price of JItte, since it is being given away now at the GP’s (it has already decreased in the last few months)? --Eric

I see no reason for the card to stay too expensive. It's useful in Legacy, but its absolute mandatory inclusion in some extended decks kept it above $20. The GP foil puts a lot of new copies on the market, and combined with the rotation, I see it around $10-$15 long-term.

That's all for this week! Remember, shoot an email to kelly@quietspeculation.com if you have a mailbag question you'd like answered. Feel free to also shoot me some feedback about the site to that address as well. We're always growing and evolving, and serving the needs of our readers is of paramount importance to us. Thanks for your questions, and I'll talk to you all soon!