The set is not even out yet, and yet already people are going crazy.

Really? Sorin needs to be $25 and other stuff needs to climb as well? Are we that impatient?

The EV on a box of Khans of Tarkir isn’t available right now, but let’s compare to some recent sets. Return to Ravnica has a box EV of $95, while Theros has an EV of $113. RTR has rotated of course and isn’t a great comparison, but Theros is. Seven cards in the set fetch more than $10 today, and only one is above $20. Khans, on the other hand, has nine and three, respectively.

I know no one is really going to make the argument that Khans isn’t overpriced right now, in the long term at least. We all know better than that. The real question, though, is how do we handle the next few weeks?

Sorin

First, let’s talk Sorin. By almost every account, he’s not a great card. It’s worse than the first Sorin, which was a role-player. More relevantly, he’s worse than Xenagos at the same cost. But he costs $25 today, more than Xenagos and basically the same amount as Sarkhan, who most most people agree will see Standard play.

So what do we make of this?

I still believe this is just hype, and the newness of everything. Even if White-Black becomes a real deck, and that is an if, and it wants Sorin, then we’ll talk. But we see that even if that is the case, then historically Sorin belongs around $15, not $25. I also want to note that buylists right now aren’t above $10, so you actually could not have profited on the card at this point unless you’re looking at another outlet.

Again, none of that is groundbreaking information. But it is important to establish a baseline before we get into the details of the next few weeks, when a $20+ price could very well hold.

What’s Old Is New

We’ve seen this all play out before. Hype goes this way and that way in the first week or two, then the top players all get really quiet about their testing as the prepare for the Pro Tour. The Pro Tour hits and prices on a few breakout cards go crazy. Everything else is forgotten, and within another two weeks the long, downward slide has begun.

This means that being proactive in these first few weeks of a new Standard is more important than anything else. I wouldn’t advocate buying in cash, but if you think there are any breakout targets in the set, trading into them now could pay off in a big way at the Pro Tour. And if it misses, as long as you’re vigilant and proactive enough to offload it immediately, you can avoid a lot of risk.

Of course, all of this money is better put in rotating cards that are Eternal-playable, but while that’s my preferred course of action it’s not the only one. There’s nothing wrong with playing the Standard market so long as you are aware of the higher risk it carries.

All About the Pro Tour

But the argument goes the other way too; there’s more reward in playing the Standard market, and I want to touch on it this week for those of you looking to play the short-term game.

Remember, the biggest spikes always come from the Pro Tour, and we know that buying your copies on the Saturday of the event is a recipe for having orders canceled. So instead I suggest you spend the next week and a half getting into those cards with some solid upside and breakout potential.

That doesn’t mean Sarkhan and Sorin, though those could certainly push past $30 for a bit with heavy play. But paying $20+ to make $10 doesn’t seem like the best play. If you’re going to play the Standard lottery, at least play it right. We want to find the cards worth a few bucks that could spike to $10 at the event, allowing us to double up our money while putting in less risk. They’re also conveniently easier to trade for and build a position in without dropping cash.

How do we develop targets for this list? Basically, the best way to build a portfolio of possibilities is to look at the power level. Some of the cards in this set are powerful and yet don’t clearly fit into an archetype, leaving them flying under the radar. That is, unless someone at the Pro Tour puts it onto the radar, at which point it would go nuts. That’s what we’re looking for.

The Cards

Wingmate Roc

Unfortunately already climbing by the time this article publishes, but $20 is where this ends up with a good weekend at the Pro Tour. And since it’s arguably better than Prognostic Sphinx at the five-drop spot, it’s a possibility. I’m not going deep into this card, but it’s my job to lay out the possibilities, and as far as the mythics go I see this one as one of the most likely to spike.

Savage Knuckleblade

I wish the buy-in was a little lower than $5, but the power level on this card is certainly high enough that it could feature in a solid tempo-based deck. Would be an easy double-up to $10.

Butcher of the Horde

Fits the same role. Again, I’m not hugely confident in a Mardu aggro deck popping out despite some of the cool synergies with the Butcher, but I have to imagine if such a deck exists this guy would be a huge player and would move to $10.

See the Unwritten

Attractive as an option simply because it’s a mythic, and because it’s an absurdly powerful effect. I don’t know if the targets even exist to make something like this a good idea, but if such a deck pops up it’s definitely a four-of, and at $4 there’s huge upside.

Empty the Pits

Now here is a target I actually like. The more people see this in action, the more they realize that it’s an actual game-ending effect at instant speed. Are you tell me that in a land of fetchlands, Caryatids, Coursers, Sphinxes and taplands—which all make for a very slow format—people can’t get ten cards into their graveyards and tap eight mana for instant-speed 14 power?

That’s child’s play for a control deck, and this is a finisher not to be dismissed. Of course it won’t be more than a two-of, but imagine if this makes ten zombies on camera at the Pro Tour. It’s instantly $10, up from $3 now. Lot of upside here.

Sagu Mauler

Some people point to this as the answer to Elspeth, rather than Scuttling Doom Engine. I’m not convinced that either will actually make an impact, but at $1.50 there’s also a lot of upside here.

Pearl Lake Ancient

I looked at this card and was unimpressed initially. And I still think it’s worse than Empty the Pits as a Control finisher. But this article from the mothership more or less implied this was played in their competitive matches of future Standard. As a sub-$2 mythic, again, it’s hard to go wrong since the upside is so much more enticing than the downside.

Eyes to the Future

This is a first-look analysis of our new Standard environment, and the next week will give us more information to play with before we hit the Pro Tour, which will of course define the format for the months to come. I’ll be picking up some of these cards I listed when I can, but I don’t plan on going deep on any of them at this time.

That said, while I’ll be taking a more conservative route and looking at Theros cards or rotated cards, if you feel like gambling this month these may be some of your best options to do so.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter