Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Intro's are always the hardest to write, as I much rather to just get to the good stuff. I guess I will just tell you who I am and why I am writing this article.
If you have ever been on Magictraders.com or MTGSalvation, or even remotely sniffed the financial forums of those sites, you will have seen me post. I have been on MOTL since 1999 and have a top 20 ref count, which sort of shows how old I am and how long I have been working in MTG Finance.
I was also a Mod for MTGNews back when it was cool and MTGSalvation when it started. I am extremely opinionated and will ardently speak in defense of my opinions and suggestions. Needless to say, I am sure I have ticked off my fair share of people over the years, but I am alright with that when it comes to defending my ideas.
As for Stu, the person, I am a 28 year old Accountant based in Pittsburgh, PA. I went to school at West Virigina University for Business and got my MBA in Accounting at Indiana University of Pennsylvania. I have a hyper-aggressive personality, where I often find myself competing, rarely satisfied.
I have rededicated myself to getting better at Magic. I am also a bit of a health-nut, and I love working out and being active.
Cut to the Chase...
You are here to invest intelligently in Magic, and I am here to assist. I feel like financial articles fail when they are simply attempting to spoon-feed information, not truly teaching anything.
As is this is my first article back, I am going to do something rather simple: I am going to give you my top five speculation targets in Standard and Modern for this article and give my reasoning to show you some basics about looking for future spec targets.
"But Stuuuuuuu, you said no spoon feeding!"
"Grrrrr, I wasn't done yet!"
Now, with each of these picks, I am going to justify my position. And your job is to critically engage in the reasoning (perhaps in the comments) and see what you can apply to future speculations of your own.
These cards will be all ranges of prices, so no matter your bankroll, you should be able to find something you like. I personally am not on all of these cards, I think diversification is a double-edged sword. On one side, I think people that preach it are not firm on their convictions, but on the other you need to have multiple copies so when they do spike, you have the customer's needs covered. Bankroll is also another huge factor. One spec on this list is as cheap as $1 and another is $35. Anyways, enough preamble, let's get to the picks (in no particular order, other than by format).
Standard:
1. Abrupt Decay
This is the quintessential example of a card that needs to be aggressively bought. How these things are only $6 I have no clue. This is a multi-format staple ranging from Standard to Vintage. It is also just as rare as Deathrite Shaman, and wherever the Shaman is played, Abrupt Decay is not far behind. I fully expect this card to double in price before Modern season comes around. The last time this card was drafted in any kind of seriousness was nearly a year ago so the supply is slowly drying up.
So, Ignoble Hierarch is a $20+ card and this is only a $13? Tell me how that makes sense. Another card that spans from Standard to Vintage, this card will be $20+ and I will gladly take 50% profit any day of the week and twice on Saturday. The trick with this card is recognizing what really drives the price, which is Eternal formats. It sees only fringe play in Standard, so I don't see a big spike coming until a month or two before Modern, but its going to happen. If your budget allows it, Deathrite can be had in foil at $50 or so, and I can see it hitting the Snapcaster level of $80+ on foils.
*Note: These first 2 cards illustrate focusing on both format appeal and amount of time this card is drafted. I am willing to wager over the course of the lifespan of a card in Standard, 65% of the cards in the market are from random people opening packs and 35% of actual drafting of the product.*
A good rule of thumb is that every fall, Standard slows down. Four sets rotate out and all of the mana ramp and fast creatures that were legal are removed. This tends to make control decks a bit better early on. I particularly think that straight Blue-White or Blue-Black will be the way the format leans initially due to Burning Earth. Blue-White gets Sphinx's Revelation which is sitting at $16 at the moment. This looks more like a $25 card to me. Mythics from a set drafted a year ago just smell like $25.
Jace follows the same rule. It is around $8 right now and that just feels so low. It is a Mythic planeswalker that is good, just not in the context of current Standard. It's problem right now that is that it can't affect the board in a positive way against these R/G and Jund decks. Jund leaves in the fall and R/G loses a lot of its aggression in the form of Hellrider and Flinthoof Boar.
5. Ravnica-Gatecrash-Dragon's Maze Uncommons
Yep, cheating on this one. I think we are going to see an unprecedented level of $2+ uncommons, particularly from Dragon's Maze. The set was underdrafted with Modern Master's cutting the time it would have been drafted plus it being a 3rd set just sets up a spike in price for cards like Sin Collector, Unflinching Courage and Far // Away (which is on my short list of top 5 cards in the new Standard in the fall). Don't overlook uncommons and commons when it comes to make some easy money. Elvish Mystic is going to be a $1 card that can be had for $0.25. These add up and I have no problem dropping hundreds on Commons and Uncommons if it means 300% profit.
Modern:
Of all of the cards I am listing here, this one has the biggest potential. More than any card in Standard, more than any card on any Restricted/Banned list. It's also one I am not buying and that is WRONG. $35-$40 on ebay with the potential to be the next $100 planeswalker. It is this cheap while not even that good in Standard, but is outrageously bonkers in Modern and Legacy. As important as Deathrite Shaman is to the eternal formats, it's this card that defines Modern and is THIS close to defining Legacy with the new planeswalker rules in effect.
People are just now starting to catch on with this card. This one is a bit longer of a hold due to PTQ scheduling and the promos. However, it might not matter, this card is still rising while being in the set that is currently being drafted. This card is good in Standard but will be a top 3 card in Modern next summer. I think Ooze actually gets a big boost from Modern being next Summer, an additional 6 months away from being drafted and promos drying up means this card should go from $13 to $25 easily.
3. Batterskull
Just feels like a $25 card. Well, it sure isn't a $10 card. After doing this for so long you just get a feeling. You look at a card and it's price and go "that doesn't seem right." Ok, for some actual analysis on the card: It's a Legacy staple and starting to see more play in Modern for both maindecks and sideboards. Add on top of that it is a third set mythic from nearly 3 years ago and I would not be surprised to see it be at least $20 by next Modern season.
4. Spellskite
Why is this card only $6? Anyone else remember it being $10+ last season? This card tanked for almost no reason since last Modern season. A lot of people whose opinions I respect more than myself are playing this card in all sorts of decks, from decks trying to fight the enchantment decks to others protecting their player and creatures from spells that would look to do them harm. It goes in the same vain as Batterskull being a 3rd set rare from a set a long time ago and you have a double digit card for next season easily.
5. Path/Snare/Helix/Inquisition
These will all see spikes by next Summer. Similar to the comment about the standard commons and uncommons, these have plenty of time to rise up in price before spiking for Modern season. Path to Exile, Spell Snare, and Lightning Helix are all depressed due to Modern Masters printings but the surplus will dry up and these cards should get back to their pre-Masters levels. Inquisition of Kozilek will spike and hit double digits, and being a staple in both Legacy and Modern bodes well for its future.
People are already speculating on Modern Masters 2 for next Summer and I just don't see it. I think Wizards will make this a special thing and keep it every 2 years or so, I can see people getting mad at Wizards for doubling up on some of the rares and mythics and tanking the market on the cards. I really think they hit a nice balance with getting more cards in the market while letting said cards regain value and not tanking people's collections.
~~
That is it from me this week. Remember, this is more about teaching you a mind frame when looking for targets, and not as much as to just give you some things to buy. Let me know what you want to see from me or if you have any questions.
-Stu Somers
Twitter- https://twitter.com/ssomers55
Nice article, Stu. Welcome (back) to QS! Glad to have you on board. Look forward to reading these each week.
All of your calls make perfect sense. I am very enthusiastic about Scavenging Ooze for the reasons you cited. M14 won’t be opened a whole ton, and as Modern season approaches this guy will jump nicely. Do you think there’s a chance Ooze ends up in an Event Deck? If so, what would the impact be?
What are your thoughts on foil Liliana vs. regular? I know the funds needed to invest in foil copies is much greater, but is the % upside not also much greater? If one doesn’t need the Lilianas for play, would they be better off buying 1 foil vs. 4 nonfoil?
No mentions of Shock Lands? Is this just beaten to death at this point, or did you leave these out for other reasons?
The rumor is that the event deck is U/W, however, if they are in the event deck, the price jump would probably be cut in half. Ooze is still in high demand due to other formats, so it should still rise a little bit.
As for Liliana, lets say she is a $40 right now and I think she goes to $100. A playset nets you $240. A foil is roughly $150 and I think she has potential to go north of $400. That is $250 net there.I don’t think it is hard to see her going that high at all.
As for Shocklands, they have been beaten to death in probably about 1000 articles, no reason to bring them up again. I rather be in on cards less people know about because when they spike, fewer people will be trying to unload them.
The rumor is that the event deck is U/W, however, if they are in the event deck, the price jump would probably be cut in half. Ooze is still in high demand due to other formats, so it should still rise a little bit.
As for Liliana, lets say she is a $40 right now and I think she goes to $100. A playset nets you $240. A foil is roughly $150 and I think she has potential to go north of $400. That is $250 net there.I don’t think it is hard to see her going that high at all.
As for Shocklands, they have been beaten to death in probably about 1000 articles, no reason to bring them up again. I rather be in on cards less people know about because when they spike, fewer people will be trying to unload them.
Didn’t hear the U/W rumor, but I sure hope it’s true. An Ooze-less Event Deck should mean nice profits.
Sounds like foil and nonfoil Liliana could yield similar profits. It’s tough to say which is more likely – $400 Foils or $100 non-foils. The two will likely go hand in hand. Fair point here.
Yeah, Shocklands are mentioned to death. Just making sure you’re not anti-shocks for some reason.
Great article and I agree with all your calls on this…enough that other than the Revelation and Liliana I’ve already built up a stockpile of everything else..and the only reason I haven’t picked up extra’s of those is that I’ve been investing heavily into fetchlands (which you left off…not sure if you don’t believe in them or simply forgot about them). I am also firmly in the camp of always coupling your picks with your reasons why….I will never invest in something simply because someone says it’s a good idea, analysis and reasoning are necessary for any good speculator to succeed.
I have actually cooled on Fetchlands. I had a pretty large stack of foils (like 3+ playsets) that I am finishing up moving. I think they have plateau’d and I just rather re-invest now.
I think you forgot Kitchen Finks in Modern #5. Other than that, solid article.
I am actually kind of cool on Finks. I think Ooze takes away a lot of the appeal of the card, however it is probably a close #5 behind those other 4 cards
Great Article! I really like how much detail you give to your opinion on a card’s direction. “So, Noble Hierarch is a $20+ card and this is only a $13? Tell me how that makes sense.” Noble Hierarch was not opened nearly as much as Deathrite Shaman.
” Batterskull, Just feels like a $25 card. Well, it sure isn’t a $10 card.” Perhaps if it was a 4 of and not a 1/2 of.
“Spellskite, Why is this card only $6? Anyone else remember it being $10+ last season?” People also remember it being a 50 cent card. Might need a bit more time before it cracks $10.
Deathrite: It might have been open more, but it is more widely played. The population of the game has increased, so as the copies of Deathrite start to dry up, you will see the price increase. Next Summer for Modern season should see this card spike since it is the All-Star of the format plus it had been out of print for 1.5 years at that point
Batterskull: Look at Shadow of Doubt. Horizon Canopy is another good example. Its a 4 of in one deck. Batterskull is 1 or 2 of in multiple decks, plus has Legacy application too.
Spellskite: I think this card recovers, it was $10+ last Modern season, no reason for it not to be again.
You definitely have me reconsidering some of my strategies, even though we have pretty similar card-by-card opinions. I think I’ve been too hesitant to cash out/reinvest in surer (eternal) things, and I need to turn that around.
“I think diversification is a double-edged sword. On one side, I think people that preach it are not firm on their convictions”
I have a Bachelors in Accounting and a Bachelors in Finance and a Masters in Accounting. When I read this I cringed a little.
I have Bachelors in Business and Master in Accounting, and I died a little bit when I re-read that
Yikes! Me too! What I meant to say was Bachelors in Accounting and a Masters in Accounting…..
Depends on the extent of diversification really. It’s a bad idea to invest in just one thing which has any kind of risk involved. But it’s also lazy to invest tiny bits like 1% in one hundred different things. If you have any understanding of what you’re investing in at all (such as the Magic metagames and basic supply and demand principles), you should have an rough idea of things that will most likely see an increase in price. Lazy is, of course, acceptable if you can’t spend a lot of your time on speculating, but it is suboptimal.
Granted, I do like to play it a bit on the safe side. But I believe in all of my top bets, and I was willing to go as deep as 10-12% on some single cards.
I don’t see my specs as a percent of 100%. How I go about my buying is to volatile to do that. If I am into a card, I will buy hard and then as I come across more I just pick them up. I don’t have a set budget. I rather just keep buying my targets and not waste money on stuff I am less sure on.
Is Inquisition of Kozilek really that good of a target anymore? It seems like a Thoughtseize reprint is almost certain in the near future, and isn’t that just better in most cases? How much of the price increase for IoK is due to people not wanting to shell out for Thoughtseize?
I wonder if Restoration Angel will soon be a good target for Modern. Its price has tanked a lot and I’m not sure how much lower it can go, but there should be a window in the next few months to pick them up cheaply.
No love for Birthing Pod?
Inquisition does something completely different from Thoughtseize. Thoughtseize being reprinting will have no effect on Inquisitions price. I take it back, a Thoughtseize reprint would help Inquisition’s price. The decks that run Thoughtseize also run IoK, so it should go up. I think 1% of the price increase on IoK is on people not wanting to pay for Thoughtseize.
Also, look at Bob and Goyf if you want to see what cards do after reprints. I don’t see Thoughtseize staying low for long.
Restoration Angel is a fine target, but I wanted to limit myself to my top 5 picks. As for Pod, I think this has cooled a little bit with Ooze being in Modern.
\”Also, look at Bob and Goyf if you want to see what cards do after reprints. I don’t see Thoughtseize staying low for long.\”
Yep, those are two very typical examples of the effect of reprints on a card.
In this day and age, yeah, I think so. Look at how people were dumping Bob and Goyf before and during Modern Masters and now look where the price is. Thoughtseize should follow the same pattern since it is in the same category as those 2 cards.
Only if you control for every single other variable. Will 1/2 of the total packs of the set Thoughtseize is reprinted in be opened at a GP where SCG has a buy price that is damn near retail? Will it be in a limited set? Will it get moved from rare to mythic? I can\’t fathom that a card reprinted outside Modern Masters is going to behave like Bob and Goyf did.
I gotta agree with Jason on this one. Thoughtseize is being reprinted at rare in a large (will be heavily drafted set) for quite some time. A better comparison is Mutavault, which has a lot of similarities to Thoughtseize (though to be fair it does see less play and was worth less even at it’s climax). Which dropped by about 50% from it’s high point. I’m guessing Thoughtseize will stabalize in the $20-24 range unless it see’s little to no standard play…then it’ll more likely be $15-18.
So, my comment was made on the assumption that it was going to by Mythic in the middle set as had been rumored. The idea is, being in the middle set severely limits the amount drafted.
I think that had it been a mythic, you would have seen SCG with a buy price pretty high going into Modern season.
However, with it being confirmed a rare, that basically turns into Scavenging Ooze. With that said, I am going to be super salty opening that in draft…
Bob and Goyf were hardly typical examples. Modern masters, limited set, blah blah…
But also, from what I saw at GP Vegas and leading up to it, SCG was on a rampage buying up every Bob and Goyf they could get their hands on. Even going through every other table and buying up their stock.
I think they identified the price depression as temporary (as most did), and took that opportunity to corner the market. From what I can tell, they succeeded. Demand skyrocketed, and SCG was left holding all the cards.