Comments

  1. Great article, Jason, my favorite of yours in a while. You spent the right amount of time breaking down the factors that affect playability and where they fit in the hierarchy of price determination. Much appreciated!

    • “If the card is expected to see less play than a card like Deadeye Navigator, how can you reasonably expect it to be worth more than $0.80?”

  2. I loved the article, but the only issue I have with using Deadeye Navigator is that a decent percent of the EDH community WANTS it banned (we house banned it) and even the fear of banning can effect a cards price (just as the belief in an unbanning..as in Bitterblossom’s case can do the same). I only bring this up, because I’ve had people ask me what cards should go in their U/G/x edh decks and Deadeye is usually one of the first cards I mention only to have them reply back “but he’ll probably get banned”…apparently that fear holds back people from risking $0.8…

    • If the card isn’t good enough to be banned, the comparison has less weight. The rules committee has never indicated DEN is a problem and people have been bitching through 4 bannings so far.

  3. “If the card is expected to see less play than a card like Deadeye Navigator, how can you reasonably expect it to be worth more than $0.80?”

    The conclusion in my eyes, there are so many reasons why a card could be worth more or less that’s impossible to make a ‘rule’ out of it.

    The question is simple, is demand higher than availability? No, then it’s cheap.
    This can change over time.
    If DEN doesn’t see reprint within the next 5 years, expect it to get a decent price. Maybe it’s just to early for him to skyrocket like forked bolt.

  4. I think there’s a lot of truth to what you’re saying but its a little short sighted.

    The prices of cards like DEN, increasing ambition, and other EDH staples that are basically bulk status are being oppressed by the fact that there is a glut of supply – right now.

    You’re absolutely right that most people who have DENs don’t even want them. The guy who bought a booster case of Avacyn Restored is more than happy to throw in a DEN in a trade because he has 12 of them and the most he’s ever going to use is 1 in an EDH deck maybe. He doesn’t care about the card.

    The guy who grinded MTGO redeeming sets of Avacyn Restored. He accidentally flooded the market with 100s of copies of DEN because he was looking for Bonfires and Griselbrands. He was ecstatic to flip his DENs for .25 to the highest buylist at the time. It helped cover some of his shipping costs and that’s about all he could ask for.

    And that’s why Starcity restocks with 1000 copies for .50 every time they do their semi annual sale. But here’s the thing – every time they do these sales a couple hundred copies sell. One day they’re going to run out. We’re at the point now where more Deadeyes are selling out of vendor inventories faster then they’re stocking up. Redemption of Innistrad block just ended so zero copies are entering the market that way. Very few people are cracking boxes of Avacyn Restored. And every day a few dozen people buy copies of this card one at a time from TCGPlayer for their EDH decks. Slowly but surely the supply is dwindling and one day the price is going to catch up. Its a buyers market for cards like DEN, Increasing ambition, zealous conscripts, and harvester of souls right now.

    Compare it to a card like Exsanguinate from SOM. It was a bulk crap EDH card for the longest time until one day it wasn’t. Same with Mimic Vat. Venser’s Journal. Ezuri Renegade Leader. True Conviction.

    These aren’t cards that spike crazy over night (usually). They’re cards you pick up a few hundred copies of and put them in the box because you know you’re going to double your money on them in a year. Patience 🙂

    • If you’re using this rule to evaluate a card that’s OLDER than Deadeye Navigator, why are you doing that? Don’t do that.

      • That’s why you diversify. Get a basket off specs. They will reprint some things but they won’t reprint everything and the profits from the homeruns will cover the losses you cut on the flops

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