I have some bad news for you. Your Standard cards have Ebola.

That's right, more than half of them are going to die a horrible death, hemorrhaging value from every orifice as they moan in agony of the knowledge that there is no life for them beyond Standard. It's going to be ugly as those temples wither on the vine like unharvested grapes. Elspeth will live out her days lurking in the underworld, too expensive for Modern and not flashy enough to be included in the  world's more enjoyable cubes.

Sigmund hinted at this in his recent article around this topic, based on a Twitter conversation we had last weekend, but I wanted to round it out and really explain why this time it's different. There's actually a pretty simple explanation:

Theros Sucks

Now, I know it's hard to say with certainty that a block is good or bad, but Theros was easily the weakest block in the last ten years.

Let me cut you off right there. You were getting ready to say "but look at what an immediate impact it had on Standard when it was released!" You're right, there were a lot of decks that utilized the devotion mechanic.

The thing is--and I did some research to verify this--Nightveil Specter was actually a Gatecrash card. Shocking right? I have some more bad news for you: the linchpins in all of those now defunct strategies were from sets outside of Theros block.

But maybe you're remembering a different Standard format than I am.

But what about...

Let me cut you off right there. You were getting ready to tell me about Thoughtseize and Elspeth, Sun's Champion and Thassa, God of the Sea and Stormbreath Dragon and Temple of _____ and Courser of Kruphix and Master of Waves, right? Yeah I know, those cards were essential ingredients in some spicy decks, but you'll have to let me finish explaining why Theros sucks before we move on to that.

Theros block was designed heavily around the draft format, so most of it's mechanics don't translate to constructed very well and this eats up so much of the "viability" of the block.

• Heroic - 41 cards, 1 playable
• Constellation - 16 cards, 2 playable
• Bestow - 34 cards, 3 playable (barely)Monstrosity - 26 cards, 3 playable
• Tribute - 11 cards, 0 playable
• Devotion - 35 cards, 13 playable (though many are Gods often used ignoring devotion)
• Strive - 19 cards, 3 playable (barely)
• Inspired - 19 cards, 0 playable (believe me, I tried)

Keep in mind that these are cards with specific keywords on them, and it doesn't take into account the cards that were created to accentuate these mechanics in limited. So why does Theros being anemic mean that all of it's cards are going to go down in value? Because it was obvious. Painfully obvious.

What was obvious?

The powerful cards in Theros were so gleaming and stood so high above the mounded feces that they were impossible to miss. They were delicious Snickers bars in a bowl full of Mounds.

Theros:

Born of the Gods:

Journey into Nyx:

For those keeping track at home, that's a grand total of 16 non-land cards.

Noticeably absent - most of the Gods and Master of Waves because Devotion is conditional, and most of those Gods relied on Nightveil Specter or Boros Reckoner for their Devotion requirements.

So what does the obviousness of these "picks" mean? We all knew well in advance what cards had a "chance to go up" at rotation and acted accordingly. As it turns out, a number of these cards were duds. Xenagos, the Reveler is outclassed by the omnipresent Mantis Rider, Fleecemane Lion and Soldier of the Pantheon don't have reasonable homes, and Eidolon of the Great Revel is putting in most of his work in older formats. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver... who knows what's going on there?

The other thing to keep in mind is that so many of the mythic rare slots were used up on the Gods, so there wasn't much room leftover for relevant mythics likes Olivia Voldaren, Falkenrath Aristocrat or Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells... cards that went from $4 to $20 during their tenure in Standard.

The point is that we've all had these cards since their release. Profits come from movement, and since most people just sat on these cards, there hasn't been much movement.

Khans of Tarkir

So what about Khans? Why do all of those cards also have Ebola? That's an easy one:

The hype on these cards alone was enough to drive a stampede of buyers, hungry for eternal playable cards. This ravenous horde is consuming Khans of Tarkir like a pack of homeless let into a free all-you-can-eat buffet, discarding their Savage Knuckleblades and Rattleclaw Mystics by the score.

 

And as the prices soared for marquee cards like Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker and Sorin, Solemn Visitor, people bought more and more packs of Khans, hoping to strike it rich.

I've seen more people casually crack booster boxes of Khans than any set in recent memory. And while players are cracking boxes, so are retail stores... why spend $100 to buy singles that they can easily open in a box that only sets them back  < $80 wholesale? But for every Sarkhan and Sorin they open, there is likely two copies of Butcher of the Horde, Siege Rhino or Mantis Rider. An equilibrium must be reached.

One example of this stands towering over all sets in recent memory demonstrating this principle: Worldwake.

Worldwake featured the most expensive card to ever appear in Standard - Jace, the Mind Sculptor at $100. Remember all the other expensive cards that showed up in Worldwake? Like... uhh... Avenger of Zendikar was $8 for a while there... and... uhh... that was it.

The Remedy

There is a cure for MTG Ebola, and it's really simple: GET RID OF THE CARDS!

There's very little that has any residual value beyond Standard in Theros. Thoughtseize, Anger of the Gods, Mana Confluence, Keranos, God of Storms, Eidolon of the Great Revel, (to a lesser extent) Stormbreath Dragon, Brimaz, King of Oreskos,  Sylvan Caryatid, and Courser of Kruphix are the only cards that will survive rotation to battle on in Modern in any real capacity.

It's time to play triage with your collection. Figure out what you need to play the next six to ten months and deleverage the rest. Pain lands, Temples, Polukranos, Coursers, etc... there's no reason to take a bloodbath on these cards and I really don't see much room for growth for the rest of the season.