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Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 29th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 27th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, including the ‘Full Set’ price for DTK, which was available at the time prices were collected. All weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from last week, except for DTK which is relative to the sum of singles prices from last week. Monthly changes are still relative to Supernova’s prices from last month before their prices started diverging from market prices.

apr29

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Paper prices on these sets continue to fluctuate with no clear trend in recent weeks. The upcoming release of MM2 is the next potential catalyst for bumping up demand for these sets. It will be interesting to see how prices react to the start of official spoilers for MM2, but it’s easy to expect a modest price bump to show up.

Speculators holding junk mythic rares from these sets, such as Darksteel Forge, should be looking to the next round of price increases to exit their position. Some of these cards have appreciated nicely, while others continue to hang around at their price lows. Although it’s possible that new highs are reached later into the summer, the risk-versus-reward calculation on these cards is starting to tip away from the reward side of things. Holding a card has the hidden cost of tying up tix in a speculative position, where the tix might be put to better use elsewhere.

On the other hand, mythic rares that are both redeemable and Modern-playable, such as Sphinx's Revelation, can be held well into the summer as they could see higher prices due to metagame shifts or just straight up expanded interest in the format.

A card recommended in the past, Domri Rade, has shown to be a non-factor in Modern up to this point. Although not total junk, the trend is not favorable on this card, and so weighing this card to be sold sooner rather than later is prudent.

Theros Block & M15

THS is the only set of these four that has a paper price (TCG low) high enough to imagine there is some demand from redeemers. However, the trend on all of these sets is unmistakable. It won’t be long until each of these sets is setting new all-time lows in both paper and digital.

Though getting to that point will have its ups and downs. For example, Master of Waves is seeing a bump in price this week after it showed up as a four-of out of Mike Flores’ Dragon deck from this past weekend. With mono-red strategies being cheap and effective on MTGO, a prepared sideboard strategy deck is essential and the merfolk wizard fits the bill.

Similarly, something like Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver might see one last price jump if control mirrors start to be the only matchup that matters.

Tarkir Block

Dragonlord Dromoka showing up as a three-of in Flores’ aforementioned dragon deck has sent that card up over 100% in the past week. The next double up is difficult to see though. It’s more likely that this card and Silumgar see about the same price in the medium term based off of playability. So far, the only one of the cycle not to see much play is Dragonlord Kolaghan, and at around 1 tix, this seems like a good contrarian bet.

FRF looks to have found a floor at around 45 tix. For comparison, the last two small sets, BNG and JOU, bottomed while they were being drafted at around 42 tix and 64 tix respectively. From a pure power level standpoint, FRF has more in common with JOU than the underpowered BNG. At these prices, don’t be afraid to start socking away some of the mythic rares, though avoid the rares until we get closer to the release of Magic Origins.

No real change for KTK, though prices are a little firmer this week, at least on the digital side of things. In paper, the pace of declines appears to be slowing, but a bottom hasn’t been established yet.

Modern

New Modern Masters 2015 spoilers have appeared recently, most of them important reprints. As of now these are not officially confirmed but seem to come from a trusted source. These cards are still to be considered carefully.

The new mythics from that list include All Is Dust, Dark Confidant, Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, Iona, Shield of Emeria, Splinter Twin, Vendilion Clique, Tezzeret the Seeker, Mox Opal, Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre and Kozilek, Butcher of Truth. Two mythics are still missing to bring the count to 15.

Concerning the rares, Fulminator Mage, Goblin Guide and Noble Hierarch appear on that list as well as the five Lorwyn commands, meaning a return of Cryptic Command.

If this list holds, two more mythics are still unknown. Since Shards of Alara, planeswalkers have always taken a mythic slot in any set, and it is very unlikely that we’ll see rare planeswalkers in MM2. With Tezzeret the Seeker on that unofficial list, a few other planeswalker should be considered for speculative purposes.

Ajani Vengeant, Venser, the Sojourner and Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas are three planeswalkers that speculators should keep in mind. These planeswalkers are not particularly in favor in the current Modern environment, but would certainly retain a good speculative value in the mid- to long-term if not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015.

Vintage & Legacy

Tempest Remastered will be released next week and the details concerning prizes and events have been posted. The important message here is that TPR packs can be used to enter any TPR events. Being able to use boosters as part of the entry fee means that TPR queues will be a cheaper than if they were tix only.

This should ensure a greater opening of packs, which will apply more pressure on the price of Tempest block cards. Legacy and Vintage tournaments will also award TPR boosters during the three weeks of TPR release events.

Speculators should expect an important price drop of the currently most expensive Tempest block cards, namely Wasteland, City of Traitors, Intuition, Humility and Mox Diamond. The best period to pick up speculative positions is usually on the weekend of release periods, the first and/or second weekend after May 6th in this case. Depending on the success of this online-only set, keep in mind these data as reference points to accumulate discounted cards.

Vintage prices are still relatively flat or slightly declining overall. A bump in some staples' prices could occur once TPR hits and lowers the price of a playset of Wasteland into the 50 Tix range, for instance.

Pauper

While some Pauper positions have stayed stable, others have severely tanked recently, including Mental Note and Innocent Blood. It is too early yet to say if this is a sign that Pauper is not taking off as expected or simply a cyclical effect.

Sell targets may have to be reconsidered once prices move again. Holding on to current Pauper positions despite this recent price fall is nonetheless still recommended.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Temple of Enlightenment
Doomwake Giant
Pharika, God of Affliction

The temple has reached its previous high of around 10 Tix and seems to have stabilized around that mark for the last week. With a comfortable 50% gain in about three weeks and with not much to expect due to the approach of Standard rotation we recommend selling it now.

Pharika and the giant, on the other hand, have never recovered since the release of Fate Reforged and are out of favor in the current Standard environment. We recommend selling these disappointing positions now before they drift down further.

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