Insider: Some Review of Recent Picks

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Hello, guys. In past weeks, I listed some Modern cards as speculation targets. Today, I'm going to take a deeper look at how those picks performed.

The Successes

Chalice of the Void is one of the most profitable pick as of this week. Two weeks ago, Chalice was at 31 tickets:

After two weeks, its has increased by four tickets, and currently the price is near 35 tickets. This artifact is a powerful staple that is played in many Modern, Legacy and even Vintage decks, especially Eldrazi Tribal and Stompy decks that aims to crush the blue decks of their respective formats. Thus, whenever the price is low enough, we can start to monitor these formats and buy in on playsets of Chalice whenever it's gaining popularity.

As you guys can see in the graph, the price of Chalice of the Void is sliding up slowly but steadily. Based on data from the past seven months, this card typically stays above 35 tickets. If decks like Modern Eldrazi Tron and Legacy Eldrazi Stompy continue to do well, the price of Chalice will probably further increase. In my opinion, you guys can hold on to these artifacts until their price goes higher.

A few days back, I saw a new brew online:

This deck totals below 200 tickets right now with a few cards that I've mentioned before: Bloodghast, Thoughtseize and Leyline of the Void. Lets compare their current prices with the prices they were when I called them out. Let's start with Bloodghast:

Since my original callout, this Vampire has increased by about 1.2 tickets. However, I did not take into consideration that its getting a reprint in Iconic Masters. This time around, I was lucky that the above deck appeared in the format to push the price of this two-drop. Thanks to QS's Matthew Lewis for reminding me about the Iconic Masters reprint in his comments. In my opinion, the price of Bloodghast has already reached it's peak and is not suitable to buy until after the Iconic Masters release. If you have copies, now is the time to recoup your investment. Regarding singles pricings after reprints, I've talked about them before right here.

Next, let's look at Thoughtseize, which is also getting a reprint in Iconic Masters. Here's where I talked about it before. As of September 13, the price of Theros and Lorwyn Thoughtseizes were as follows:

I suggested back then that you may want to focus on the Theros version, as it had a higher potential for profit. And as of this week, Theros Thoughtseize is at 6 tickets. Iconic Masters is going live on the November 17, which is about two months after the full spoiler was released. Typically, when spoilers of a Masters set confirms that a card is going to be reprinted, players will stop buying those cards unless they are heavily played in multiple formats. Thoughtseize is a very good example of this category. If you purchased a couple playsets of this card earlier, now is the time to sell them off as the draft events of Iconic Masters approach.

My prediction on this card, when it's released on November 17, is that the price will drop to somewhere around 1 and 2 tickets. Keep the card on your watchlist, and when you identify that the price is at the absolute bottom, do remember to buy playsets for investment.

The last card I mentioned from the above deck is Leyline of the Void. I've talked about Leyline in a metagame analysis article before. This black enchantment is widely played in eternal formats, mostly as a three- or four-ofs in sideboards. Back then, Guildpact Leyline was 7.2 tickets while the M11 version was 5.8 tickets, as shown:

As of this week, both version of Leyline of the Void have increased in price – the Guildpact version has increased by 1.3 tickets, while the M11 printing has gained about 3.3 tickets. If you purchased any copies of these enchantments, do be ready to sell them off for profit soon.

The Failures

Now that we've looked at some successes, I'd also like to discuss some speculations that did not work out, which include Bitterblossom and Vendilion Clique. Previously, I was speculating that the Faeries deck might become popular with the rise of midrange decks in Modern, and I've also covered the possible inclusion of The Scarab God in Modern Blue-Black Faeries. As of now, the price of the main pieces mentioned have not gone well.

Back then, Bitterblossom was 12 tickets and Clique was 16 tickets. As of now, the tribal enchantment has dropped slightly, and unfortunately, the price of Vendilion Clique has gone way downhill.

What I learned from this failure is this: Modern is considered a very fast format. Faeries might have been very good back when the cards were legal in Standard, but once they entered Modern, there were many decks that can beat Faeries before the pilot of the slow blue-black control deck can stabilize. In the future, I will focus more attention on cards with the potential to do broken things.

New (Old) Picks

Flashback triple Innistrad Draft events have just ended. I hope you identified cards that you can buy at their low points right now, but if you haven't, may I suggest the following:

Champion of the Parish is played in Modern Human Tribal decks. The deck is not as popular as decks like Affinity and Eldrazi Tron, but once players online are not prepared for it, they can easily lose to these Human creatures. The one-drop might seem very weak on its own, but once its pilot summons a few more human creatures, and follows up with a Collected Company, you should start to feel the strength of this Champion. At its current price, I would suggest picking up playsets as speculation. While waiting for the right time to sell them, you should probably try out the Collected Company Humans deck over here. Trust me, the deck is competitive and fun!

Last but not least, one of the most powerful planeswalker ever printed, Liliana of the Veil, is currently at a low point after the flashback drafts. Liliana is very popular in Modern and Legacy black decks. I would not suggest buying too many copies of this card, but if you have some spare tickets, and especially if you want to play her in your decks, this is the right time to purchase them.

Alright, guys, that’s all for this week. I hope you guys enjoyed it. Thank you all for reading, and I’ll see you again next week!

–Adrian, signing out.

One thought on “Insider: Some Review of Recent Picks

  1. Hi Adrian,

    I like the concept of going back and checking out the performance of past picks. This is a great way to examine whats going right and whats going wrong, and if we need to make adjustments.

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