Insider: The Criminally Undervalued

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Welcome back, folks. As most of you know, I practice and preach a process approach to speculating on Magic Online. I trust "The Process" just as much as the Philadelphia 76ers (and fortunately for everyone involved, the results don't require multiple years of tanking).

Today's article will be a tad different, inspired by my recent speculation on Hazoret the Fervent. There are times when I notice that some cards are commanding prices well below or well above what they should, and I just happened to stumble upon Hazoret's price being so low that I was compelled to speculate on it, even though the ideal time for investing into Amonkhet cards has long passed. I did the same with Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet last summer, to a profit of about $75. Sometimes cards just get flatout undervalued by the market.

Sometimes you just have to travel to the Bazaar of Baghdad and find the best deals, and the lame duck season we're in now is a perfect time to do so. One thing I like about The Process is that it minimized the amount of time and effort you have to spend. It's efficient. Few people have the time or desire to scour the entire MTGO marketplace every day or every week.

This week, at least, I'm doing it for you, identifying cards that I think are well below where they should be, cards that I think have a good chance to net you a lot of money if you invest in them today. What are some Standard cards that are criminally undervalued? Let's take a look.

1. Vraska, Relic Seeker

Current Price: 5.43 tix
Future Price: 7.00-10.00 tix

I'm surprised Vraska has dipped this far. She's no Elspeth, Sun's Champion, but she is a playable top-end planeswalker. Expect her stock to rise once eyes turn toward Standard again.

2. Heart of Kiran

Current Price: 5.63 tix
Future Price: 8.50-12.00 tix

It's legendary. It's historic. It will benefit from the reprintings of Isolated Chapel and Clifftop Retreat. Dominaria should thus be a huge boon to a card that is at its current low. I might not have been as excited about this card if we were about ready to enter its final format, but we have not only Dominaria but also Core 2019 to go. That minimizes risk and helps make this a solid pickup.

3. The Deserts

Ipnu Rivulet Current Price: 0.16 tix
Ipnu Rivulet Future Price: 0.40-0.75 tix

Shefet Dunes Current Price: 0.61 tix
Shefet Dunes Future Price:
1.00-1.25 tix

Ifnir Deadlands Current Price: 0.31 tix
Ifnir Deadlands Future Price: 0.65-1.00 tix

(Hashep Oasis Current Price: 0.71 tix)
(Hashep Oasis Future Price: 0.75-1.15 tix)

I think all of these lands, except for Hashep Oasis, are criminally undervalued right now. It might be wise to try to snag Shefet Dunes below 0.50 tix, but I think you'll likely profit by buying anything below 0.70 tix. These are just some of the best utility lands in Standard, they tap for colored mana, enter untapped and come from a small set. Yes, please!

4. A Few Bulk Mythics

Glorious End Current Price: 0.06 tix
Glorious End Future Price: 0.03-0.65 tix

Uncage the Menagerie Current Price: 0.08 tix
Uncage the Menagerie Future Price: 0.05-1.00 tix

Dovin Baan Current Price: 0.26 tix
Dovin Baan Future Price: 0.15-1.50 tix

I'm not sure I want to speculate on these, but what unites them is that the market is undervaluing their potential. As we learned a few months ago, mythic rares with a CMC of 3 or less just don't have values this low. That's why I invested in Combat Celebrant and is why I might invest in Glorious End.  Considering that Tefari and Oath of Tefari are UW, I could easily see a mediocre planeswalker like Dovin Baan seeing some play, and any play will cause a large price increase for a mythic rare valued currently at a quarter.

5. Pull from Tomorrow

Current Price: 0.05 tix
Future Price: 0.10-0.65 tix

I will lose money on Pull from Tomorrow since I invested in them when they were 0.50 tix (LOL), but at this price, you're likely to make money here. Since we're getting toys like Mox Amber and Gilded Lotus that help you empty your hand and generate a lot of mana, I think that cards like Pull from Tomorrow, not to mention Walking Ballista and Torment of Hailfire, have much higher potential going forward. The market hasn't yet given Pull from Tomorrow's potential its due.

Signing Off

The value of my collection has gone up by  ten percent over the past two weeks, from $2700 to $2950. This is surprising given that we're in lame-duck season and suggests to me that folks are looking forward to Dominaria and Standard (which bodes well for all of our investments more broadly). It also shows the very real impact of redemption, which was recently reinstated for Ixalan block cards and has put upward pressure on them. That's making it harder for me to wait for more ideal prices on Rivals of Ixalan opportunities, but the week of the release of Dominaria should prove a good time to pounce.

A copy of my portfolio can be found here.

Additionally, I'm open to exploring topics of your choice over the next few weeks. Please leave some suggestions in the comments for the type of content you'd like to see, and I'll see if I can deliver. Thanks!

2 thoughts on “Insider: The Criminally Undervalued

  1. Great picks, I will need to get it on a few of these. Unfortunatly Im still sitting on a stock pile of Heart of Kiran that I bought above $10, so I’m pretty hesitant to go in on more copies of that one, the deserts look and pull from tomorrow great though.

    1. I hear you. Generally if you have 50+ copies of a card it’s less advantageous to “double down” because it’s harder to move higher numbers of cards efficaciously. At minimum I think you should hold your copies of Heart of Kiran, since it’s much more likely to rise in price than dip in price over the next few months.

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