Buylists are dropping across the board. ABUGames dropped their buy prices drastically across the board, allegedly to better control cash flow. Then they list over 1,000 Alpha and Beta cards on eBay in what appears to be a desperate move to raise cash. Card Kingdom’s buy prices have been steadily dropping across most Old School cards. Even Rudy of Alpha Investments is piling on, creating this video addressing the drop in Reserved List prices.
I’m envisioning a sinking ship with the classic alarm sound—you know the one.
But let’s take a step back for a second. Is this selloff really that concerning? Have we really peaked in Magic, only to see downward price trajectories going forward? Something tells me this isn’t the case. In fact, as Rudy alluded in his video, I think this is a positive for the health of Magic as an investment. Allow me to explain.
Corrections: A Necessary Evil
When the stock market cools off and sells down 10%, people often refer to the movement as a “correction.” These happen all the time in all sorts of markets. Prices can’t simply climb up and up forever indefinitely. Eventually people will sell to take profits and raise cash. Some people believe these corrections are the symptom of a healthy market. According to CNBC:
“Many investors and analysts look at corrections as a necessary ‘evil’ to cool off an overheated stock or bond market. This is to prevent a huge sell-off or ‘bubble burst’…it’s believed that corrections adjust stock prices to their actual value or ‘support levels,’ and so are not overpriced or inflated. Many short-term investors look at corrections as buying opportunity when the stock or the overall market has reached a bottom or the lowest price level. Their buying helps push the price back up and stops the correction.”
Do you think this mindset applies to the Magic market? I do. The Old School market in particular was way overheated. Cards had increased hundreds of percentage points over timespans of a couple years or even a few months. Even unplayable junk from the oldest Magic sets suddenly spiked in price.
If this chart doesn’t represent overheated, then I don’t know what does.
The next question to ask is whether or not we believe people will view this pullback in price as a buying opportunity. While this is based on my opinion, I would say the answer is “yes.” For starters, Rudy himself mentioned that he personally knows people who would aggressively scoop up Old School cards should their prices dip significantly. While I have no way to prove if he’s being honest or not, I can certainly say I also know people who would do the same. In fact if prices got low enough, even I would start aggressively buying. Imagine how sweet it would be to finish a set of Arabian Nights for half its current price! What a steal!
And therein lies the final leg that props up prices during a correction: support levels. These are price points where buyers would hypothetically come in to acquire the equity. For example, I own three Shahrazad. It’s my favorite card in all of Magic. But at $200 for heavily played copies, I am not compelled to finish my playset. It’s not like I’m playing the card, after all.
But what if the price dropped to $100? At that point I would eagerly scoop up that fourth copy! I suspect others would also buy Shahrazad at $100 or even $150 if they had the chance. This demand at lower prices is probably robust enough to provide price support on these cards even as they gradually decline.
Net, this price correction is healthy, presents a buying opportunity once things settle out, and should reflect the health of the Magic market. Don’t forget, this is the summer doldrums. It’s never a great time for Magic appreciation.
With the above mindset, I wish I could advocate logging into eBay and buying up ABU’s listings. Card Kingdom and Star City Games’ stock of older cards has also gradually refilled. Even TCGplayer has seen a rise in stock of late. But despite the return of supply, I can’t recommend shopping aggressively. The reason is simple: prices are too high.
Sure, you could buy ABU’s near mint Alpha Counterspell on eBay for $1624.99. It’s nice to even see that there is an Alpha Counterspell for sale on eBay in the first place! But that price is absolutely insane, especially considering ABU has a tendency to accept cards as near mint that I personally would grade slightly played.
You would probably be better off acquiring Card Kingdom’s two EX copies in stock at $1279.99. But even that price point is just crazy relative to where it was six months ago. I want to say these were in the $300 range at the beginning of the year. An eBay auction from Kid Icarus sold on May 14th of this year for $350.67! Talk about a superheated market.
Looking at more recent completed eBay listings, I can see a handful of these selling nowhere near $1279.99. A BGS 8.5 copy just sold on August 1st for $840. This is the new reality we live in: there’s finally enough supply on the market to meet demand for these Old School cards, but the prices are way higher than we’re used to even a couple months ago. Large vendors like Card Kingdom and ABUGames had aggressive buy prices for a while, and now their stock is refilled. But with the higher price points, it’ll take a while for them to move all this supply. Thus, we see a drop in buy prices and an apparent market correction.
My advice: start shopping around for Old School cards from smaller sellers. This includes eBay listings from lesser known sellers as well as TCGplayer sellers. For example, Hexproof Games on TCGplayer has an MP Alpha Counterspell listed for $700. There are also a couple sellers with $900 LP copies. Better yet, wait another month or two to see where prices settle out—perhaps more copies will hit the market and prices will drop a bit further. It will be impossible to time the exact market bottom, but some savvy shopping from private sellers may score you a deal or two.
The above may seem fairly obvious: “the market is correcting, so look for deals.” That may not seem as useful to some folks. So let me get more specific. Just keep in mind, if people act on this advice the opportunities may be gone by the time you look. So you’ll have to act fast if you like these suggestions.
First and foremost, we need to acknowledge that ABUGames still has fairly aggressive buy prices on cards if you’re willing to take store credit. There is still plenty of opportunity to grind value from any Old School cards you already have.
I could list an infinite number of examples, but one buylist I submitted recently included a played Unlimited Power Surge. I bought the card for $3 at Gencon and I’m getting $7.50 in store credit for the card. I also shipped a near mint Revised Force of Nature for $3.04 in store credit. This doesn’t seem like much, but when you’re submitting a bunch of cards like this, it adds up quickly. If you’ve got higher-end stuff to move, you can also do well getting trade credit from ABUGames. Getting $270.75 in credit for a heavily played Arabian Nights City of Brass, for example, is nothing to scoff at.
The list goes on and on.
What should you do with all that store credit? Well, you could scrounge their site looking for underpriced cards. But that may be difficult and time-consuming. You may be better off waiting for that next buyout to show up on MTG Stocks and scoop up any copies that ABUGames has listed. You may be overpaying a tad, but given the crazy store credit numbers you’re getting from your buylist, there’s certainly profit to be made from this strategy.
Card Kingdom has cooled off on their buylists, but they still pay relatively well for seemingly useless cards. Not long ago I shipped them two MP Angelic Voices and got $11.20 cash on each! They also paid me $13.60 for an EX Bronze Horse and $8 for a NM Psionic Entity. Net, if you have lower-end Old School cards you can still get pretty solid numbers for them from Card Kingdom—this is especially helpful in freeing up cash to take advantage of the declining prices.
If you don’t want to deal with buylisting, then keep an eye on TCGplayer. If I browse TCGPlayer’s Alpha listings right now, I see plenty of well-priced cards. On the low end, there are commons like Firebreathing and Circle of Protection: White for $8-$10 in MP condition. That doesn’t seem like a steal, but keep in mind ABUGames offers $13.05 in trade credit for a played Alpha Firebreathing.
I see an MP Pestilence for $23.50—that’s not a bad price. Going to the higher end, there’s an Alpha Gloom for $79.90 in MP condition that seems reasonable. The fact that you can still buy an MP Alpha Demonic Tutor for $600 baffles me. Card Kingdom’s VG price is $839.99, so $600 seems to me a great deal.
There are also still good deals on Cool Stuff Inc’s website, by the way. Their prices aren’t slam-dunks like they once were, but you can still find some stuff there at or near buylist pricing.
If Alpha’s not your thing, no problem. I am confident you can find deals on many other older cards on TCGplayer if you search. I bet you can also negotiate some good deals from private sellers on Facebook or Twitter as well. Just point out the declining buylists and lower prices on TCGplayer and you should be able to negotiate a deal. It’s a buyer’s market right now.
Wrapping It Up
Corrections happen all the time in the stock market. Many experts believe such trends are healthy for the market because it helps vent off the overheated conditions in the market leading up to the correction. While Magic cards are different from stocks, I absolutely believe the same general theories are applicable. This correction is healthy for Magic.
We certainly were overheated. When ABUGames jacked up their buy prices they really moved the market. But now they are overstocked with this stuff and their buying has cooled. The same can be said for other large vendors as well. This retraction in buy prices has caused some people to worry about the market’s health. Trust me when I say everything is fine and this is actually a good thing.
I can say this with confidence because the market was way too hot for a while. Selling Alpha Glasses of Urza to a store for $70 made little sense! In addition, there are many potential investors out there eager to buy more in the event there is a significant pullback in prices. That demand is out there, waiting to pounce. Because of this, prices simply can’t get too low. Without panic and capitulation, we’ll see a normal rebound when the dust settles.
When that will happen is tough for anyone to predict. But strategic buying from private sellers over the next few months should be a sound strategy to set you up for profits when the correction does inevitably end. Feel free to leverage the still-aggressive buy prices on certain older cards to generate cash/credit. With some patience, you should be able to take advantage of the buyer’s market.
- Card Kingdom dropped most of their Arabian Nights buy prices not long ago. Juzám Djinn dropped from $1260 to $1080, for example. Bazaar of Baghdad, Library of Alexandria, Drop of Honey, and Serendib Efreet went through similar drops. Know what actually went up at the same time? Shahrazad. I’m not sure why, but it’s worth keeping an eye on that one.
- Shifting towards Legends, Card Kingdom made similar drops to their buy prices on this set as well. Land Equilibrium’s buy price has remained robust at $140, however. They also increased their buy price on Legends Mana Drain from $90 to $100 not long ago. Demand for Karakas has also remained robust thanks to its popularity in Legacy.
- One very recent addition to Card Kingdom’s hotlist is Beta Lightning Bolt. They are offering $225 for near mint copies now. This is far superior to ABUGames’ $140.40 cash offer, though if you went the credit route you’d get more from ABU ($321). Playable Alpha and Beta cards should remain the most robust in a market correction, so you may want to prioritize these in your shopping.