Comments

  1. I hope MtG actually does incur a slowdown so I too can be proactive in buying cards. I quit MtG back in Invasion and got back in during Ixalan, and as soon as I did, almost everything was spiking. I was definitely late to the party in some respects. It’s quite comical looking at the pricing charts!

    Regarding the current Summer months, I’m personally not seeing signs of people restraining themselves. Look at the recent SDCC 2018 promos. People are throwing around $100 bills for glorified Standard foils; FOMO at its finest. Read Saffron Olive’s comments also on Modern deck prices — they’re up 26% since 2018, and yet Modern is arguably the most popular format. People have shown they’re willing to pony up the extra cash.

    The U.S. economy is just too good. I’m seeing it at my work place: We’ve got guys being poached from other companies because companies are forced to offer more competitive wages in today’s tighter job market. Places everywhere are hiring. Unemployment is at record lows. People everywhere are acquiring more income, so it only makes sense they’ll dump some of it into investments, like MtG.

    • David,

      I love your optimism! Indeed the economy does appear to be firing on all cylinders. But is this sustainable? I hear plenty of chatter on CNBC that the market is volatile and at-risk of a slowdown given the headwinds its facing: fed raising interest rates, turmoil over seas, and unpredictable president, trade wars, etc. Perhaps things won’t be so sustainable?

      I do believe there is some level of slow-down through summer months, but it seems to be isolated this year. Some markets remain hot, like EDH, but it’s about time Old School cards cool off a bit. They ran up far too much too fast.

      At the end of the day, however, many people are out there hoping prices DO drop so they can buy in. Which is essentially why a) the pullback in prices will remain small and b) we do not have a bubble. Too much demand for this stuff. Time will tell where things go from here, though.

      Thanks for the comment!

      Sig

  2. I honestly have felt old school has been way overheated/overhyped for quite some time. People felt like it was a slam dunk to invest into these cards because their value was insulated from reprint due to the formats requirements…but when too many people think something is a slam dunk you end up with super inflated prices. So this correction has been a long time coming and I’m far more bearish kn it than you.

    • I agree a pullback was overdue. No argument here. But there is still a ton of demand for Old School cards, so any significant pullback will just be viewed as an opportunity to buy. I feel this way. Rudy feels this way. Even LSV feels this way (he tweeted this sentiment to me not long ago). We’re all wishing we had bought more when prices were lower, and if we get a second chance we’re all jumping in….which is why prices can’t get too low.

  3. Hi Sig,

    As always you have hit upon a point that is directly relevant to me, so much so that it feels like you have read my mind.

    “Imagine how sweet it would be to finish a set of Arabian Nights for half its current price!”

    I am trying to complete a set of Arabian Nights. I have about 4 high value targets left including Bazaar, Drop of Honey and Serendib Eftreet and Shahrazad. In a way, I’m so close, but as you know those cards total close to $3k in value. Do you think we’ll actually see a price drop in old school staples, or merely a plateau before the next inevitable upswing?

    • Ben,

      I feel your pain! I used to own 1 of every Arabian Nights Reserved List card. It was so awesome! But then prices climbed higher and I sold a bunch, only to regret it later. Now I wish I could get my hands on some of these cards again but it’s too late.

      I hate to be super negative here, but I don’t think prices will drop all that much. Mostly, the demand is far too strong at lower price points. If Bazaar dropped to, say $600, people would be swarming all over them for their collections. Because of this, the price can’t get that low. The same goes for many of the other Old School cards out there.

      I hope I’m wrong. I hope prices DO drop enough to be worth getting again. But the fact that we feel that way tells me this probably won’t happen. Maybe you’ll get lucky scouting out Facebook sales and the like? This poll gives me no hope. https://twitter.com/sigfig8/status/10291549278667

      Thanks for commenting!

      Sig

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