With the release of Time Spiral Remastered almost upon us, possibly already out by the time you may read this, the looming question has yet to be definitively answered: will TSR hold its value, go up, or go down? If you read my original article on TSR, you may see that the expected value is incredibly high. Even with accounting for inflated prices ahead of release, the value is incredible. Someone made a Booster Box opening simulator, using officially stated pull rates, and the average EV was off the charts.
I spun the wheel a couple of hundred times, and it just seems too good to be true. The singles value at preorder is insane, with 11 non-foil cards worth more than $20 dollars, 6 of those being timeshifted, and 24 cards above $10, and 14 of those being timeshifted. Foil prices are even more insane, with prices ranging from $6 to over $300. With the normal value of the set being already a home run and the timeshifted foils, generally, at a rate of 1-2 per box being the hit or miss added value that they are, it's safe to assume that prices have to adjust.
Over the course of the past week or two, prices that were considered by some to already be too expensive at the early prices, have risen drastically. Boxes ranged from $150 (rarely) to $190 in the first day or two, they quickly jumped to $200 to $210 a box, and are currently sitting at $235 on TCGplayer, almost $250 on Amazon, $225 at Card Kingdom (limit of 5 per customer) and Star City Games at $225 (26 boxes left at the time of writing).
The main question regarding value consisted of a couple of possible outcomes. The price of the box would fall, and so would the singles, the price of the box would rise, and the singles would hold, or the boxes would stay the same, and the singles would go as the market willed them to. With more time bringing further clarity, the prices of the sealed product have risen, likely solidifying the prices of singles to a certain degree. There is a likelihood that singles will drop and bring the price of sealed down with it, but that is something we will have to take a look at.
The preorder prices for singles tend to be higher than the actual value, this is something that is not a new idea. What is a new revelation is that preorder prices may be closer to the actual value than preorders may historically suggest. The prices also usually start to shift significantly lower as stores start to open boxes and the real-world rarity of the cards in the set is discovered and prices are adjusted, but the prices don't seem to be shifting downwards too drastically.
This could suggest that as stores are opening boxes, the discovery is being made that these cards are valued at an appropriate price relative to rarity. My hypothesis is that the single values right now are not too far off from the actual value, and I do not see the sealed prices being too bad either. This could easily be the most valuable set for singles we have seen in a long while, or it could all crash and burn, to wait and see is the path to that answer.
I have heard conflicting information on the supply of Time Spiral Remastered. Some people saying the supply is record-setting with how little they are receiving, while others noting nothing out of the ordinary about supply. The one statement that is few and far between is an oversupply of sealed products. I have seen supply compared to that of Modern Horizons, with people expecting supply to be flooded, and when the extra supply never came, and the true scarcity of the remaining boxes revealed, the rapid devaluation never occurred. Of course, we have no unified data on the print run other than the limited print run of the set, so all we can do is speculate with both ears to the ground, and hope for the best. Personally, based on my own experiences and perception of the information that we do have, I believe that the supply will be clinched.
The possibility of the supply being held up by Amazon sellers is unlikely at this point, with the prices of Amazon boxes being some of, if not the highest price point for any sealed boxes of TSR. I believe while a crash is unlikely, a large-scale panic over the possibility of such would be the largest reason for such a possibility. A calm and responsible market is responsible for the growth we have seen over the past couple of weeks, and a calm and responsible market will likely be responsible for the continued stability of the product in the future. If people get scared and try to liquidate any remaining product, we could see a short-term devaluation of the sealed product of TSR likely following by a longer-term price correction leading to a return to at least 3/4 of the original price for the sealed product.
I predict a lot larger of an impact on singles in the event of a possible crash, with prices across the board dropping a lot more substantially, and recovering a lot slower. This should be no cause for concern, however, as the likely hood of a high supply preventing a long-term regrowth is unlikely, considering all signs seem to point to an overall lower or sub-par supply, if not a large shortage(unlikely in my personal opinion).
With the release of TSR almost upon us, this is a critical time for the value of this product. The make or break decisions made by the cogs of this machine, no matter how minute, are made in the critical first week or two. Being responsible with your own position, and encouraging others to do the same might just allow TSR to be a massive home-run for investors and players alike. Be vigilant of the market, and be patient. Making an impulsive choice right now could not just influence your immediate profits, but others as well, and not to mention your and other's profits in the future. In the end, make the decision that feels right, and be confident.
What doesn't grow, dies, and what dies grows the smart investors sell binder. Have a great day, relax, maybe draft TSR if that fits your fancy, and as always don't forget to invest in carboard.