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Winning the Zendikar Prerelease – Part 1 of the Incomplete Guide

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As of today, 122/249 cards have been spoiled, and we have a good idea what the world of Zendikar will look like. The hype surrounding this set has already surpassed any set in recent memory due to the inclusion of a new Wrath of God, Enemy Fetch Lands, and apparently there's some sort of Mana Snake involved that people seem to like. Whatever the hype may be, it is our job here at Quiet Speculation to ensure that no matter how awful your sealed pool, you walk away with more "prize support" than the people who win the day. Other sites can tell you how to build your deck, play your matches, and win your games, but on this site, it's all about the art of the deal.

Before we get to the specific cards, it is important to understand the absolute chaos that is a pre-release. Normally sane people will be driven into a wee jackanape frenzy, backstabbing eachother on trades and all. This can be used to your advantage, especially if you've got a good rapport with people at your event. If you have a reputation for being an easy, fair trader, people will go to you first.

The other thing to realize is that people trade very loosely at these events. "Book value" hasn't really been set, and many people don't even know what things are pre-selling for. Knowledge is power! Spend an hour on eBay looking up what pre-sales have closed in the last day or two, and jot down the average prices of the cards you care about. Pre-sales are nothing more than speculation, and should be treated as such, but more often than not they are a fantastic indicator of early demand. That is not to say that strong pre-sales guarantee a card's success, but if a card is pre-selling for 20 dollars, chances are it will be selling for 20 dollars for a few weeks at minimum.

There are 4 kinds of cards when a set comes out. Good Cards, Sleepers, Crap Rares, and Overhyped. Everyone knows what Good Cards look like - Day of Judgment, Fetch Lands, etc. Sleepers are cards like Emeria, the Sky Ruin and Lullmage Mentor, which are priced low but have tremendous upside. Crap Rares are cards that everyone kind of agrees aren't all that exciting. Overhyped cards are simply cards which the masses believe are Good Cards, but may not be as good as advertised. The best strategy revolves around trading away the Overhyped cards and acquiring Sleepers in great quantity. This is why the term "rocket fuel" is used so often around low-cost rares. A $1 card that suddenly finds itself the crux of a tier 1 deck will easily increase 5-fold in price. Should the card stay at $1, your losses and risk are minimal. If you identify a sleeper and are confident with your pick, commit fully to that choice and maximize your profits.

Identifying and categorizing these cards is always the most difficult part of preparing for a pre-release. There is always a margin of error, but this can be minimized by using a "brain trust" of sorts. Before discussing your picks with your friends, have them go through the spoiler and classify each card according to the four categories above. The cards you agree on should be ones about which you can feel confident, and ones about which you disagree should be discussed. One person simply cannot make a proper evaluation alone. Once this is done, you should have an idea of what your "buy list" for the event will look like. Trade accordingly, and it will be difficult not to leave the event with a truckload of value.

One last bit of advice for pre-releases: many people keep their trade binders disorganized, or full of commons, or otherwise poorly maintained. Fix that immediately. You will have limited time between rounds and after the event to make deals, so your binder should only contain rares and some choice uncommons and they should be sorted to some degree. Usually, separating cards from Standard will be sufficient. If you usually keep a section of your book for "stuff not for trade", throw that idea out the window. People make ludicrous deals at these events, so be willing to break your playsets for the right deal. That's the idea behind value trading - as long as your trades are always adding value, breaking a playset should never be an issue.

In just a little while, we'll begin our evaluation of the rares and Mythics we've seen so far. All evaluations are being made using the MTG Salvation spoiler, and we cannot be held responsible for fake, inaccurate or otherwise poor information derived from said spoiler. Always be careful pre-ordering cards until the set has been fully released on paper.

Lotus Cobra!

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There's not much more than can be said about a 2/1 for 2 with an ability this powerful. These are the sort of cards that make Landfall look really scary. The applications in Standard start with fetch lands, but its the interaction with cards like Harrow and Rampant Growth that make the cobra look scary.

The question will be, is this a combo card, an aggro card, or something else entirely? Pre-sales have already broke 20 dollars a card on eBay, so they really don't represent a bargain at this stage of the game. There are far too many ways to abuse a card like this, and the only question will be what format and what deck will do so. Combos with Scapeshift in Extended will be a part of the conversation, as well as chain-casting Rampant Growths. The real question is, what do you DO with the mana once you get it? When that question is answered, we'll know just how good Lotus Cobra is.

Kelly Reid

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Emeria, The Sky Ruin

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Debtor's Knell on a land seems good, right? Why these are low-end rares on our favorite auction site makes no sense. A playset is less than 10 dollars. Don't even think about playing Martyr-Proc in 1.x without this card. It's got enough power and synergy with the Ravnica duals to work in other decks, but the fact is that a land has never done anything like this before. The only drawback? It comes into play tapped. Yeah. That's it. It's not even Legendary. Status? BIG sleeper. There's a chance it never does anything, as seven plains is a LOT of land to have in play, but its payoff is huge. White has the best creature in Standard right now, so protecting Baneslayer might be a thing of the past. You might just be saving your counter magic for their land destruction spells. It also combos nicely with Knight of the Reliquary in a W/G deck to turn early forests into late Plains.

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Knight of the Reliquary

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This has been a hot-button topic on Twitter and via email, but it's finally time to make the call. Knight of the Reliquary has doubled in price on Ebay in the last couple of weeks and frankly, the call should have been made with the announcement of enemy fetch lands. Be that as it may, the card is still cheap. Some vendors still have them for 2.50 or 3 dollars, and Ebay isn't quite touching 15 a playset yet, so it would be a good idea to snag a few before they go bonkers. We've seen enough of Zendikar to know that even if the card doesn't ultimately become great in a Tier 1 deck, it was good in extended last season so it'll have SOME value. If it does become Tier 1, watch out. The window's just about closed on this one, so get them ASAP.

Kelly Reid

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The SCG Charlotte 10K – One Weekend – Two Events – $10,000 Up for Grabs!

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If you're within a day's drive of Charlotte, a 10K weekend is a ton of fun! Star City runs great events, so make the trip if you can.

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS

Saturday, September 12th (Doors open at 8:00 AM)

StarCityGames.com $5,000 Standard Open

Format: Standard
Entry Fee: $30
Start Time: 10:00 AM (Registration begins at 8:00 AM)
Structure: Modified Swiss with a cut to the T8.
Head Judge: John Carter (L4)
K-Value: 32
REL: Competitive
Prizes:
1st: $2,000 & the StarCityGames.com $5,000 Standard Open Trophy!
2nd: $600
3rd-4th: $400
5th-8th: $200
9th-16th: $100

2010 Game in the Gulf Cruise Qualifier!
Format: Standard
Time: Registration starts at 2 p.m., with the tournament starting at 3 p.m.
Structure: Swiss+1 rounds based on player attendance.
Entry Fee: $25.00
Prizes: The winner receives a berth on the 2010 Game in the Gulf Cruise, with Shards of Alara Block pack prizes for the top eight.

Sunday, September 13th (Doors open at 8:00 AM)

StarCityGames.com $5,000 Legacy Open
Format: Legacy
Entry Fee: $30
Start Time: 10:00 AM (Registration begins at 8:00 AM)
Structure: Modified Swiss with a cut to the T8.
Head Judge: Riki Hayashi (L3)
K-Value: 32
REL: Competitive
Prizes:
1st: $2,000 & the StarCityGames.com $5,000 Legacy Open Trophy!
2nd: $600
3rd-4th: $400
5th-8th: $200
9th-16th: $100

SIDE EVENTS

Competitive Magic: 2010 booster drafts
Entry: $15.00
Format: Eight-player single-elimination booster draft.
Prizes:
1st Place: 8 boosters of Magic: 2010, WPN Foil Path to Exile
2nd Place: 4 boosters of Magic: 2010, WPN Foil Hellspark Elemental
3rd & 4th Place: Miscellaneous WPN foils

Casual Magic: 2010 booster drafts
Entry: $10.00
Format: Eight-player single-elimination booster draft.
Prizes:
1st Place: Free entry into another casual draft, or three packs of Magic 2010.

Eight Player Single elimination constructed tournaments
Entry Fee: $15.00
Prizes:
1st Place: Booster Box (36 boosters) of Magic 2010, WPN Path to Exile
2nd Place: WPN Foil Hellspark Elemental
3rd & 4th Place: Miscellaneous WPN foils

Four Player EDH Chaos Games
Entry Fee: $5.00
Prizes:
1st Place: $20 Dealer Credit

REGISTRATION
Registration begins at 8:00 AM, and ends ten (10) minutes before the event is scheduled to start. Any player who wants to enroll after registration has ended will be able to do so, but will receive a round one match loss. Players arriving after round two has been paired will not be able to enroll in the tournament.

SPECIAL GUESTS
Artist Doug Chaffee will be joining us for this event. Doug has illustrated more than forty Magic cards, including Boros Swiftblade, Skirk Prospector, and Sphere of Resistance.

We'll also be joined by artist Mark Poole. Mark is responsible for numerous Magic card illustrations throughout the game's history, including such iconic pieces as Birds of Paradise and Ancestral Recall!

Star City Games is happy to welcome MTG Framing, providing on-the-spot framing of Magic cards and prints. For more information, visit www.MTGFraming.com.

Both artists and MTG Framing will be onsite on Saturday only.

MORE INFORMATION
Players who want specific information can contact us at events@starcitygames.com or by calling (540) 767-GAME (4263)

Charlotte Convention Center
501 South College Street
Charlotte, NC 28202
(704) 339-6000
http://www.charlotteconventionctr.com/

Week in Review (as seen on the Starkington Post.com!)

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Every Monday night/Tuesday morning, QS publishes the Week in Review over at the Starkington Post. To read this when it comes out, check the Post around midnight Pacific time every Tuesday morning.

Welcome to Quiet Speculation.com’s Week in Review on TheStarkingtonPost.com. This week we’ve got a whole boatload of Zendikar spoilers to discus. It's the policy of TheStarkingtonPost.com to only discuss confirmed spoilers but, luckily for us, PAX has given us plenty to talk about!

It’s a great time to be a Magic player. The 2010 Pro Tour stops in Southern California, Puerto Rico, the Netherlands, and Japan, Wizards just released the most influential Core Set since Alpha, and Zendikar is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic sets the game has seen in a long time. Magic sales are up all around the world, Magic Online just released Masters Edition III, and Duels of the Planeswalkers will be adding to its repertoire by offering Xbox Live DLC (DownLoadable Content) in the near future. All these things prove in a big way that it’s an excellent time to be a Magic player!

When Mark Rosewater announced that there would be a long-anticipated cycle of cards that players have been begging to see for years, the hopeful speculators wondered if enemy fetch lands would finally see print. Well, in a move that shows just how in-tune WotC is with their market, those speculators were completely and totally correct. Arid Mesa, the red-white fetch land, was previewed in grand fashion at PAX, and showed us that these new kids on the block will be able to hang with their older siblings from Onslaught. No one needs to be told that these lands are good, but they may not reach full value until Christmas time. Why? Simple – the PTQ format for San Diego is Zendikar Sealed and Standard won’t be a PTQ format until tax time comes around.

That means the major demand for these fetch lands will stem from the Extended qualifier season starting January 2nd, at which time you and your Mesas can compete for a slot at Pro Tour-San Juan! It is the Extended format that will truly leverage the power of the new fetch lands, as Ravnica duals will be legal there for two more years. As such, it might be prudent to wait on trading for your fetch lands until the initial hype dies down. If they’re going for under 10 dollars where you play, then by all means scoop up every copy you can, but if they’re $15+, hold off.

Speaking of Extended, get your cards for the upcoming season over the next few months. The Ravnica duals are much harder to get in the middle of a PTQ season and will remain a staple of the format for their entire tenure. Now is also a good time to get cards for decks like Mono Blue, since many of the cards in that deck are losing value with the Standard rotation. It’s difficult to predict where things like Thoughtseize, Mutavault and Cryptic Command will settle, but all three are high quality cards that have a chance to see a home. If you don’t have them already, let them rotate before you trade for them. If you’ve got them, just hold them. It’s not worth the effort to attempt a short-swing profit.

Moving on to post-Zendikar Standard, it seems like everyone’s losing their collective minds over the new Goblins. Warren Instigator’s potential is completely insane, and he’s backed up by TheStarkingtonPost.com’s own preview, Goblin Guide. These two pals form one of the most impressive 1-2 punches the format has seen in a long time, but the tribe as a whole suffers from a medical condition known as Diestofalloutitis. Most commonly seen in aggro decks, Diestofalloutitis is characterized by a severe vulnerability to instant speed board sweepers and is often fatal for the infected deck. It seems like there are a great deal of early drops in Zendikar so far, many of which have more severe drawbacks than we saw in Shards of Alara. Black has a Carnophage wanna-be and green got a 3/2 Rogue Elephant with shroud. Unfortunately, it seems like all of these cards are great at dying to Volcanic Fallout and the new Day of Judgment, so be careful when building new aggro decks or buying into the hype of something like Warren Instigator.

The prevalence of all these under-costed beaters would normally be terrible for control players, but today’s control decks have the tools to handle even the most aggressive starts. While mana bases will certainly be weaker with the loss of Vivid lands and Reflecting Pool, we have tri-lands, fetch lands, and M10 duals with which to create great mana bases. Fetch lands and M10 duals are not as synergistic as Ravnica duals are, but they still work very nicely together. The biggest challenge facing control players is the mana base; when 5 Color Control figures out its post-Zendikar mana base, watch out. A deck that can run Path to Exile, Volcanic Fallout, Day of Judgment, and Cruel Ultimatum is a force to be reckoned with. Quest for the Gravelord is a great enchantment to play when you’re developing your early mana, and it can turn a timely Volcanic Fallout into a blowout of epic proportions and end the game extremely quickly.

So far, it looks like the chase cards will be the Fetch Lands, Warren Instigator, Day of Judgment, and any planeswalkers – as always. Day of Judgment should be your priority come the Prerelease, as it looks like the format is about to get seriously aggressive. The fetch lands might be over-valued at first, but when they fall back to earth, load up on them. Warren Instigator is a risky play because the hype is as high as it can possibly be. They’re pre-selling around $15 a piece on eBay, which is probably lower than they’ll start out at places like StarCityGames, but the risk of a Goblin deck never taking off is very real. If you absolutely must have a set of them, be careful and keep a sharp eye on how viable the tribal deck truly is. Unlike Goblin Guide ($5 or less on eBay), which is insane in any aggressive deck and should be picked up while it’s cheap, Warren Instigator is only really good in a dedicated Goblin deck. The existence of Whiplash Trap alone should be enough to make a player want to shy away from aggro decks, but sometimes the allure of the Goblin is too strong. As long as the Goblin hype continues to
rage, demand for the peripheral cards like Goblin Chieftain and Siege-Gang Commander will remain high. Pick up some copies of each if they’re inexpensive in your part of the world.

Planeswalkers are difficult to assess early in a format. In a vacuum they always look fantastic, but a planeswalker’s value is heavily correlated with the other 56 cards that surround it. Sorin Markov and Chandra Ablaze both have valuable β€œsmall” abilities and spectacular game-ending ultimates, but it remains to be seen if a tournament deck will hold either. With the exception of Elspeth, no Planeswalker has passed the 20 dollar mark yet, and it looks like neither Sorin nor Chandra will break that trend. In most cases, Cruel Ultimatum is more deadly, more immediate, and significantly harder to stop.

It’s easy to get caught up in the hustle and glamour of new cards, but you can’t get everything right away. It’s very important to prioritize new acquisitions at a Prerelease, and adjust your strategy according to your local β€œtrading metagame”. Once the full set is revealed, we’ll do our customary review of studs, duds, and sleepers and get you prepared for one of the most exciting sets in years! Keep an eye on Quiet Speculation as the Prerelease draws closer, and we’ll see you next week!

Fetchlands: Redux

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In the comments on Arid Mesa, a very good point was made by a reader. If these get too high, too fast, we're likely to see a bubble scenario occur. If this is the case, and these lands go totally berserk, you want to be on the inside of the bubble, not the outside. There's going to be a lot of Zendikar product being opened over the next 3 months, especially with ZEN Sealed being a PTQ format for the fall/winter season. They shouldn't cost more than 10-12 dollars. They'll start at 15. They might hit 20, and when you see the scale tip well towards 20, that's when you pull the trigger and blow your fetch lands out.

There's a chance that they'll stay 20 for a while, but let's be real. You don't have an Extended PTQ for months, and that's when you'll REALLY need them. You'll survive FNM without buying into 2 or 3 playsets of overpriced lands as long as you heeded the advice of QS and stocked up on Tri-Lands. If you can ride the bubble to profit, do so. DO NOT get emotionally attached to the idea of "having fetch lands". You'll probably have an idiot friend who brags to the world how he finished his set already, but he won't tell you how he traded a Baneslayer for 2 Arid Mesas. Don't be that guy.

The concept of value investing and value trading cannot be stressed enough, and it will be covered a bit further in the Zendikar Pre-Release Guide, but the basic concept is as follows. Invest in multiple copies of low-cost, high potential cards. Think of them like Magic's penny stocks. A card like the recently spoiled Lullmage Mentor is a great example. They're a dollar on Ebay, so 3 playsets will cost you less than a single fetch. If a fetch land goes from 15 to 20, you've made 5 dollars. Woo. If Lullmage Mentor sees ANY play whatsoever, it will jump from a dollar rare to a 3-5 dollar rare. Even assuming you only triple up, you're generating almost FIFTY DOLLARS of value. That's why it's the rocket fuel of Magic trading.

Value trading doesn't have to involve cash in and cash out. When Sygg, River Cutthroat was a crap rare, a certain QS editor snagged about 12 for under a dollar a piece. Two days later, when it appeared that Sygg was vital to the Jund Cascade deck that swept GP Seattle, it was effortless to trade Sygg at 4 or 5 dollars. Imagine trading a playset of something that's pre-selling for a dollar like Lullmages for a single fetch land. It's like buying the card for 4 dollars. Hopefully this brief example demonstrates why it's ideal to use your resources very carefully at the pre-release. A lot of prices will change very quickly, so be mindful of when to buy, sell, trade and just sit still.

Kelly Reid

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Enemy Fetch Lands

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Fresh from MTG Salvation, it seems like we're getting the Enemy Fetch Lands we've been salivating over. It seems like Zendikar is going to be another high EV set for opening product. There are going to be a ton of chase rares when the set comes out and discerning which will have staying power is the key to profiting at the pre-release.

It goes without further mention that these fetch lands will be staples in both Standard and Extended. They are fantastic with the M10 duals and the Ravnica duals, and have serious synergy with Landfall. These will be popular to say the least. It seems like they are the surest place to put your stock on prerelease day.

If the hype pushes them past 10 dollars, be careful. Once a land like this hits 15, there's usually nowhere left to go but down. Reflecting Pool was an exception due to its ubiquity, but these are not Reflecting Pool. There will be some great decks that use the synergy of fetch lands and landfall, and it looks like aggro decks are getting some serious tools. So far there have been a plethora of absurdly fast 1-drops, including a 3/2 shroud for G which eats the land you play it with, basically. With so many insane early drops, this format is probably going to be FAST. Any control decks that plan to compete will need to have a good way to answer the Goblin God Draw or be dead to rights before Wrath of God's redheaded stepchild comes online.

At 10, these lands are probably decent pick ups but above that, you risk buying at a peak. There's no way they'll be cheap, but they should hold value for a while due to the relevance in older formats.

Kelly Reid

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The Magic Show 156 – The Lost QS Segment

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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve8zcJu0FME]

Here's the segment that was meant for The Magic Show this week. Hope you enjoy!

Warren Instigator

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WOW. The card looks fantastic until you consider that Double Strike triggers his ability TWICE. Then it looks like the insane card Evan warned us all about. The implications range across formats. Legacy decks now have 8 Goblin Lackeys and Standard Goblins got the most powerful effect the tribe has seen in years, all alongside the reprinting of Siege-Gang Commander and the printing of Goblin Chieftan. Sure, it'll get Bolted and sometimes it'll get hit with an Essence Scatter, there's no Daze, no Force of Will, no Broken Ambitions nor is there even a Cryptic Command available to slow the roll of the Goblin hordes.

It doesn't take a financial genius to tell you "get yours ASAP", nor is it exactly a secret that this is the kind of card that can drastically boost the price of the cards around it. Pick up your Chieftans and Siege-Gangs at FNM tonight and pray that not everyone's seen this spoiler yet.

Oh, and it's Mythic. Remember what we said about Time Warp? Yeah, get your playset at the pre-release people.

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Posted in Uncategorized4 Comments on Warren Instigator

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Eating Crow: The Hits and Misses of M10

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A personal note - I'll be at the Star City Games 5K in Ft. Worth, TX this weekend, working at the Star City booth. I encourage any and all readers to come by the booth and introduce themselves. You'll recognize my face from The Magic Show!
--Kelly

Eating Crow
- "...humiliation by admitting wrongness or having been proven wrong after taking a strong position."

This piece is a direct result of a Jeremy Fuentes article over at ChannelFireball.com. In it, Jeremy reviewed his older picks and suggestions with a critical eye. The concept of accountability is central to being the best Magic player you can be so in the spirit of being the best, we're going to take a look back at the M10 set review to see what we called correctly, and issue some apologies to well-deserving cards.

The Apologies

Baneslayer Angel - "Double digit prices...Use these as trade bait, but they may find their way into decks." Sorry for calling you Trade Bait, but you still kind of are. 20 dollars might have been more accurate than double digits. Easy call blown.

Captain of the Watch - "Many people will be trying to play White Weenie Soldiers for PTQs and such, not to mention at FNM. Thse will be at least $5...also great trade bait". Those people never seemed to show up. At least they are/were great trade bait.

Djinn of Wishes - "There is a world of potential in this card, and the pre-sales are only showing them as marginally better than a bulk rare. This is a pick for a sleeper card, especially if it's being sold as a dollar rare." It ended up being in a theme deck and it just isn't powerful enough for Standard. This sleeper never woke up.

Time Warp - "It will be challenging to slot this into a tournament deck in Standard". Damn you Jonathon Loucks! How are you create a deck to reinforce the Open the Vaults pick?

Magma Phoenix - "This is one of the cards that can be "rocket fuel" - a bulk rare that may be far better than people realize". Swing and a miss. Yes, it still has potential and it could still be good, but this was just an outright blank.

Elvish Archdruid - "If some sort of Elf deck really comes up to Tier 1 status, he'll likely be the lynchpin". So. Close. A logical premise backed up by a completely ridiculous conclusion, "It would be surprising to see him hit 10". At least the position was slightly changed shortly after the review.

Great Sable Stag - "His 6 dollar price tag seems a touch high for a metagame that's not going to feature the Little Blue Men too much. Over-hyped Trained Armodon that'll live in the sideboard of some Jund and R/G decks. If people are buying, feel free to be selling." This one hurts the most. That's awful.

Now for the predictions that were closer to reality:

Honor of the Pure -"Crusade and Glorious Anthem never really reached double digits. The White deck is probably going to be over-rated, so this is one to be trading away on pre-release day." You never got better value on these than in Week 1.

Open the Vaults - " Someone will eventually break it and you'll be glad you had your set." Enough said. Still hasn't had a price spike yet, but the deck could be a contender post-rotation.

Silence - "There may simply be better things to do with one's time and mana." Does anyone run this in anything?

Xathrid Demon - "Unlike another highly flavorful card that will probably have sick artwork". We knew the card was going to be crap, but predicting the artwork? Nailed it.

Ball Lightning - "This is a card to sell high while the hype is up." Once again, what deck plays this?

Overall, this set could have gone better. A lot of cards that were over-hyped have died down a great deal and if you got out of those cards early you made some money. Unfortunately, there were 3 crucial missed calls. Calling Baneslayer double digits when she was almost 100% a 20 dollar card is bad. Calling a 6 dollar Stag "overpriced" is downright idiotic. The idea with Archdruid was that it seemed improbable the Elf deck was going to be so good. It being 10-12 dollars is reasonable with a tier 1 popular Elf deck, but that doesn't change the fact that it was an important call that got missed. Many of these predictions were overturned or revised in the following weeks, but for cards like Baneslayer that started out at 7 dollars (for a DAY), it is important to get it right from day one.

There are more sets to review in the future, and hopefully we can look back on the Zendikar review in a few months and see a greater level of accuracy. The information here on this site is well thought-out and rarely outlandish, but it is not gospel. Form your own opinions on cards and back them up with solid, sound reasoning. Most importantly, listen to multiple sources. Neither QS nor Rishadan Pawnshop nor Ben Bleiweiss alone gets it right all the time, but 3 perspectives will let you make a more informed decision and give you a broader scope of data to work with. Both Jeremy and Ben do great work and if you enjoy Quiet Speculation, you'd do well to read their work. Jeremy's latest article can be found linked at the top of the page, and Ben's most recent article on Star City Premium is here.

[ZEN] Day of Judgment

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We all knew this was going to happen. On some level, Magic without Wrath just wasn't going to be Magic. Being able to sweep the board on turn 4 is vital to keeping Aggro decks in their place. The loss of Wrath and the rotation of Hallowed Burial stings a little less now that we've got a suitable replacement. The lack of a no regeneration clause shouldn't factor in the card's utility, but keep an eye out for an aggressively-costed regenerator.

Unfortunately, Day of Judgment's printing most likely spells the end of Wrath's days in Standard for a long time. The card's held its value to some degree, but frankly there's no reason for it. Nostalgia can only prop up a price for so long.

It should go without saying that Day of Judgment will be a chase rare, box promos be damned. Wrath of God was always a 10 dollar card, and there's no reason Day of Judgment won't be. It would be unwise to pre-sell them lower than 10 dollars, and they have the chance to hit 15. Most players will need a set of the new Wrath and the supply won't be padded by 10 Core Set printings, 2 Portal printings and a Player Reward promo. It won't be easy but treat this card like you hopefully treated Maelstrom Pulse at the Alara Reborn pre-release. Pay the going rate for your Days of Judgment and get every copy you can. Pre-releases are great for savvy traders since there is heavy demand for cards that will ultimately end up in the Bargain Bin. Once the spoiler is out, we'll cover the studs, duds and sleepers of the set so you can formulate a pre-release trading plan.

Kelly Reid

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Zendikar Spoilers and Risk Management

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The first Zendikar spoilers are starting to trickle in, and having been reminded by The Starkington Post's article about the same subject it's time to have a discussion about spoilers and finances. In the excitement of a new set, its easy to get caught up with wanting to nail down The Next Big Thing. Before you know it, you've pre-ordered four playsets of a card that doesn't even exist yet! Although bargains can be had in the days and weeks before the set is released, extra caution is required when looking for deals. A new dimension of complexity is introduced. When you are buying a card that's already released (or at least officially revealed), you run the risk of the card simply not existing. We're not talking about two toughness on a Giant Solifuge, we're talking about the cards you paid for simply not being real magic cards at all.

The name of the game when it comes to finance, be it Magical or otherwise, is managing risk. When you hear about a "sleeper" card on this site, that's just another way of saying "most people don't think the card's potential outweighs its risk". We try to focus on low-risk investments here because in this game, there are many. Poker players have the concept of Pot Odds, we have the concept of Crap Rares. It's easy to make a few bucks when Elspeth goes from 25 to 30, but the capital required to make 5 dollars is simply too high. There is tangible risk. Something like Caldera Hellion however, which packs a powerful effect for a competitive mana cost, requires almost no capital investment. For the price of a single Elspeth, you could own 6 playsets of Hellion. If that Hellion even sees a TINY amount of play, you'll be counting your earnings in the triple digit percentages. The risk may have been the same - our cost was only 25 dollars both ways - but the expected values were structured completely differently.

There are always going to be ways to augment your collection by value trading. It is not necessary to nail down every single sleeper or predict every trend. If you find yourself capable of doing so, there is a website that might need a new staff writer πŸ™‚ For the rest of us, it is only necessary to be slightly more right than you are wrong. Unlike equities, bonds, and currencies, Magic cards really don't have the risk of zeroing out. A bank can go bust, a company can bankrupt, and a country's treasury can become insolvent, but unless the game of Magic itself goes down in flames or a card is banned, there is a theoretical minimum value of a Magic the Gathering rare. It may only be 10 cents, but it's there. Also consider that unlike the equity markets, where the only relevant goal is profit, Magic cards have value to people outside their financial value. Some players collect sets, and if Pale Moon is the last card Little Timmy needs to finish his set of Nemesis, Pale Moon has value all of a sudden.

The point is, by speculating with your dollar on cards that may be the product of an overactive imagination adds a completely unpredictable dimension of risk to an otherwise predictable process. The fact of the matter is that people don't fake-spoil "sleeper" rares. They mock up the kind of cards that set the forums alight. Were that new Chandra card real, it would easily reach 20 dollars. Thankfully the creator of the mockup had originally posted it as a "what-if" scenario, but had this card taken root as a real card, what's to stop ebay sellers from preselling it?

Over the coming weeks, there will be discussion on this site and elsewhere about the value of these new cards. It would be wise to treat unconfirmed cards as fiction until they're revealed as fact. There will be plenty of time to speculate and profit once Zendikar is out. If people missed Tarmogoyf the first time around, they'll miss something in Zendikar too. If you're going to pre-order cards, be careful and know your risks!

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