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Welcome back, readers! Today's article is going to focus on the Expeditions from Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW). The aim is to review and analyze the prices compared to the originals.
| Card Name | Zendikar Expedition Price | Pack Price | Pack Foil Price | Reprint Foil Price | Notes |
| Ancient Tomb | $105.20 | $13.60 | $16.00 | FTV Foil only option | |
| Arid Mesa | $119.95 | $53.49 | $88.46 | ||
| Blood Crypt | $75.50 | $13.50 | $96.58 | $24.58 | |
| Bloodstained Mire | $125.96 | $29.59 | $134.99 | $44.99 | |
| Breeding Pool | $79.98 | $16.00 | $117.37 | $35.49 | |
| Canopy Vista | $47.99 | $3.59 | $9.20 | ||
| Cascade Bluffs | $91.15 | $23.46 | $65.00 | ||
| Cinder Glade | $48.58 | $3.60 | $9.05 | ||
| Dust Bowl | $67.73 | $8.12 | $72.99 | ||
| Eye of Ugin | $169.98 | $37.90 | $59.95 | $46.99 | MM2015 foil option as well |
| Fetid Heath | $73.77 | $28.80 | $63.49 | ||
| Fire-Lit Thicket | $63.74 | $12.75 | $30.87 | ||
| Flooded Grove | $83.97 | $21.15 | $63.30 | ||
| Flooded Strand | $211.84 | $34.43 | $261.25 | $72.04 | |
| Forbidden Orchard | $67.17 | $7.37 | $18.88 | $7.29 | FTV Foil option |
| Godless Shrine | $97.27 | $12.34 | $79.42 | $32.89 | |
| Graven Cairns | $55.99 | $7.49 | $24.95 | $16.60 | |
| Hallowed Fountain | $79.99 | $13.31 | $132.47 | $36.35 | |
| Horizon Canopy | $122.00 | $65.12 | $175.00 | ||
| Kor Haven | $59.13 | $7.13 | $45.00 | ||
| Mana Confluence | $69.95 | $4.43 | $18.41 | ||
| Marsh Flats | $119.97 | $44.88 | $79.76 | ||
| Misty Rainforest | $275.99 | $59.85 | $145.37 | ||
| Mystic Gate | $85.98 | $16.39 | $57.00 | ||
| Overgrown Tomb | $88.55 | $11.75 | $79.02 | $30.00 | |
| Polluted Delta | $259.99 | $39.74 | $331.10 | $80.75 | |
| Prairie Stream | $52.23 | $3.41 | $9.79 | ||
| Rugged Prairie | $61.37 | $13.68 | $30.39 | ||
| Sacred Foundry | $75.00 | $14.94 | $67.71 | $31.21 | |
| Scalding Tarn | $328.94 | $99.73 | $193.14 | ||
| Smoldering Marsh | $44.99 | $3.06 | $8.49 | ||
| Steam Vents | $116.29 | $16.91 | $109.99 | $44.02 | |
| Stomping Ground | $78.74 | $13.58 | $99.97 | $32.76 | |
| Strip Mine | $89.25 | $14.55 | $28.41 | FTV Foil only option | |
| Sunken Hollow | $53.40 | $3.90 | $10.71 | ||
| Sunken Ruins | $82.97 | $15.59 | $52.49 | ||
| Tectonic Edge | $49.99 | $2.15 | $7.64 | ||
| Temple Garden | $77.12 | $12.45 | $67.54 | $25.99 | |
| Twilight Mire | $83.30 | $37.13 | $87.99 | ||
| Verdant Catacombs | $202.99 | $61.82 | $125.87 | ||
| Wasteland | $275.00 | $67.14 | $236.54 | $195.95 | Player Rewards/Judge |
| Watery Grave | $79.41 | $12.98 | $78.61 | $38.92 | |
| Windswept Heath | $123.47 | $26.09 | $134.99 | $48.49 | |
| Wooded Bastion | $52.47 | $11.49 | $32.49 | ||
| Wooded Foothills | $139.95 | $33.37 | $124.99 | $47.74 |
The next chart focuses on the multiplier on the original foil (usually a pack foil, but sometimes from a supplemental product).
| Card Name | Zendikar Expedition Price | Pack Foil Price | Multiplier |
| Ancient Tomb | $105.20 | $16.00 | 6.6 |
| Arid Mesa | $119.95 | $88.46 | 1.4 |
| Blood Crypt | $75.50 | $96.58 | 0.8 |
| Bloodstained Mire | $125.96 | $134.99 | 0.9 |
| Breeding Pool | $79.98 | $117.37 | 0.7 |
| Canopy Vista | $47.99 | $9.20 | 5.2 |
| Cascade Bluffs | $91.15 | $65.00 | 1.4 |
| Cinder Glade | $48.58 | $9.05 | 5.4 |
| Dust Bowl | $67.73 | $72.99 | 0.9 |
| Eye of Ugin | $169.98 | $59.95 | 2.8 |
| Fetid Heath | $73.77 | $63.49 | 1.2 |
| Fire-Lit Thicket | $63.74 | $30.87 | 2.1 |
| Flooded Grove | $83.97 | $63.30 | 1.3 |
| Flooded Strand | $211.84 | $261.25 | 0.8 |
| Forbidden Orchard | $67.17 | $18.88 | 3.6 |
| Godless Shrine | $97.27 | $79.42 | 1.2 |
| Graven Cairns | $55.99 | $24.95 | 2.2 |
| Hallowed Fountain | $79.99 | $132.47 | 0.6 |
| Horizon Canopy | $122.00 | $175.00 | 0.7 |
| Kor Haven | $59.13 | $45.00 | 1.3 |
| Mana Confluence | $69.95 | $18.41 | 3.8 |
| Marsh Flats | $119.97 | $79.76 | 1.5 |
| Misty Rainforest | $275.99 | $145.37 | 1.9 |
| Mystic Gate | $85.98 | $57.00 | 1.5 |
| Overgrown Tomb | $88.55 | $79.02 | 1.1 |
| Polluted Delta | $259.99 | $331.10 | 0.8 |
| Prairie Stream | $52.23 | $9.79 | 5.3 |
| Rugged Prairie | $61.37 | $30.39 | 2.0 |
| Sacred Foundry | $75.00 | $67.71 | 1.1 |
| Scalding Tarn | $328.94 | $193.14 | 1.7 |
| Smoldering Marsh | $44.99 | $8.49 | 5.3 |
| Steam Vents | $116.29 | $109.99 | 1.1 |
| Stomping Ground | $78.74 | $99.97 | 0.8 |
| Strip Mine | $89.25 | $28.41 | 3.1 |
| Sunken Hollow | $53.40 | $10.71 | 5.0 |
| Sunken Ruins | $82.97 | $52.49 | 1.6 |
| Tectonic Edge | $49.99 | $7.64 | 6.5 |
| Temple Garden | $77.12 | $67.54 | 1.1 |
| Twilight Mire | $83.30 | $87.99 | 0.9 |
| Verdant Catacombs | $202.99 | $125.87 | 1.6 |
| Wasteland | $275.00 | $236.54 | 1.2 |
| Watery Grave | $79.41 | $78.61 | 1.0 |
| Windswept Heath | $123.47 | $134.99 | 0.9 |
| Wooded Bastion | $52.47 | $32.49 | 1.6 |
| Wooded Foothills | $139.95 | $124.99 | 1.1 |
Looking through this list we see a few that stand out. The highest multipliers likely imply an overconfidence in current price. The best examples of these are Ancient Tomb, Canopy Vista, Cinder Glade, Mana Confluence, Prairie Stream, Smoldering Marsh, Sunken Hollow and Tectonic Edge.
Of these options, Ancient Tomb's only foil is the From the Vault (FTV) version, so it makes sense that the Expedition would be much higher.
Tectonic Edge and Strip Mine are the only other cards originally printed at uncommon, with Tectonic Edge being much more recent (hence why its foil price is so low) whereas Strip Mine's only previous foil was the FTV version.
The most important thing to note here is that with the exception of Tectonic Edge, the BFZ "tango lands" have the highest multipliers across the board. As these lands haven't really found a home in any eternal formats, they are likely overpriced at their current value.
Looking in the other direction we see that the Expeditions that are worth less than their original pack foils are Blood Crypt, Bloodstained Mire, Breeding Pool, Dust Bowl, Flooded Strand, Hallowed Fountain, Horizon Canopy, Polluted Delta, Stomping Ground, Twilight Mire and Windswept Heath. The majority of cards in this list are either fetches or shocks---both of which have been reprinted recently in Standard-legal sets which provide alternate foil options at very large print runs.
The two cards that stand out are Twilight Mire and Dust Bowl, which have only one printing previously and one foil option from that printing. Without a reprint, I expect both of these Expeditions to rise in value to match and exceed their original pack foils.
If we compare the Expedition price with the reprint foil option we can see that the Expeditions are valued above the reprints by quite a bit. Note that the Wasteland "reprint foil" referenced below is the judge foil.
| Card Name | Zendikar Expedition Price | Reprint Foil Price | Multiplier |
| Blood Crypt | $75.50 | $24.58 | 3.1 |
| Bloodstained Mire | $125.96 | $44.99 | 2.8 |
| Breeding Pool | $79.98 | $35.49 | 2.3 |
| Eye of Ugin | $169.98 | $46.99 | 3.6 |
| Flooded Strand | $211.84 | $72.04 | 2.9 |
| Forbidden Orchard | $67.17 | $7.29 | 9.2 |
| Godless Shrine | $97.27 | $32.89 | 3.0 |
| Graven Cairns | $55.99 | $16.60 | 3.4 |
| Hallowed Fountain | $79.99 | $36.35 | 2.2 |
| Overgrown Tomb | $88.55 | $30.00 | 3.0 |
| Polluted Delta | $259.99 | $80.75 | 3.2 |
| Sacred Foundry | $75.00 | $31.21 | 2.4 |
| Steam Vents | $116.29 | $44.02 | 2.6 |
| Stomping Ground | $78.74 | $32.76 | 2.4 |
| Temple Garden | $77.12 | $25.99 | 3.0 |
| Wasteland | $275.00 | $195.95 | 1.4 |
| Watery Grave | $79.41 | $38.92 | 2.0 |
| Windswept Heath | $123.47 | $48.49 | 2.5 |
| Wooded Foothills | $139.95 | $47.74 | 2.9 |
Next we'll look at the prices for Expeditions, pack foils, and reprint foils alongside each other:
As expected, the original Onslaught foil fetchlands have maintained a premium even over the Expeditions (with the exception of Wooded Foothills). Also to be expected, all of the reprinted foil versions of the shocks are considerably lower than the Expedition prices.
The other bit of information to pull from this is the huge discrepancy between the reprint foil shocks (from RTR block) and the original foil shocks (from Ravnica block). Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash foil shocks are surprisingly cheap right now, with the most expensive, Steam Vents, sitting at only $44 each.
I don't expect we'll see shocks return to Standard for quite some time. As Modern grows we should see a slow but gradual increase in demand for Modern foils (assuming WoTC's ban policy doesn't scare players away from pimping out their decks). Shocks are among the most important staples of the format and are sure to participate in such a trend.
Do you think expedition shocks and fetches are worth speculating from now until this time next year?
To be 100% honest…my gut kinda says no (I may have to eat crow for this call), but if you look at the regular foil fetch price it’s remained relatively steady and saw minor changes despite the regular versions going haywire over the past few years (if you look at jumps as a percent increase) I know because I bought a playset of foil Tarns and foil Misty’s from a friend about 3 years ago and they haven’t really moved in that time…meanwhile the regular versions shot up to $100, back down to $55, and tarn is now around $100 again and misty is still around $55. I feel that there’s enough apprehension regarding WoTC’s treatment of modern (via the banlist) that many players who would pimp out their modern decks with foils are holding off doing so…I think with SCG’s reduction in legacy support the desire to foil out decks will likely remain reduced for awhile….now some of these expeditions are gorgeous and certain ones may go up due to cubers and commander players, but I wouldn’t want to park the kind of money needed to invest in any of them long term, when I feel that money would be far better used on other modern spec opportunities.