It’s that time again. M13 spoilers are already rolling in even though we’re still a ways off from the set’s release. That means we are in a position to look back at my predictions from Avacyn Restored and see how I did.
The first thing to come to mind is that I was dead wrong in my evaluation of the set as a whole for Limited. I thought what seemed like some strong defensive cards and expensive Angels meant it would be a slow format that allowed you to leverage skill. Of course, that turned out to be completely untrue, as the set is actually very fast and incredibly swingy. I’ve only drafted it a few times because I hated it from Day 1, when I won my local prerelease and still hated the format. That’s a bad sign.
But the set has been a hit for Constructed, and it’s time to see how I did in my price predictions.
Then: “There are a few things to know about this card. The first is that it is actually insane in any format where people play creatures. It’s that good, and is probably a 4-of in any deck that wants it (which is quite a few).
The second is that everyone inside Wizards of the Coast knows this. That means, while the $22.50 pre-sell price is probably going to actually be correct moving forward (think of a better Inkmoth Nexus), I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pop up in an Event Deck or a Planechase product or two, which will exert some downward pressure on the price.
By the way, this thing is going to be an absolute hit among casual players. Throw in the fact that this set will only be drafted for a few months, and it’s a perfect storm for an absurdly high price tag. Pick your playset up and hold on to them, and demand a premium for any you get past that.”
Now: $25 on SCG. Pretty much nailed this one, since other than a brief spike to $30 it’s stayed right around where it debuted. I am surprised it hasn’t come in an ancillary product yet, though.
Then: “LSV says this is huge in Esper, and I can’t imagine he’s wrong. Most importantly, it’s a Mythic so the upside is going to be there, especially in the first few weeks of the set being released. It’s $6 right now, and a spike to over $10 is not going to be at all surprising if it shows up at the first tournament post-release.”
Now: Sitting at $25 on SCG, I can’t say I called this one very well, even though I did predict upward price movement. This hasn’t seen much play since the Pro Tour, though, and is only popping up sporadically in Legacy, so it may slowly head down.
Then: “People have been talking about this, and I think it’s going to live up to the hype. It’s at $5 and it’s the release promo, so that will hold the price down. That said, I think this is a pretty safe target during the prerelease weekend, especially if you can get value on the regular one by the fact that there will be fancy prerelease copy easily available.”
Now: $10 on SCG, and out of stock. I really liked this card when the set was spoiled, and only the fact that it was a prerelease promo kept me from predicting a rise to $15. Still, glad I was on board with this.
Then: “I called this Time Reversal 2.0 on the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery. As we discussed on the cast, that’s not quite true, since EDH players will want this and it’s actually somewhat playable across formats. But with Mastery selling at $40 right now, it’s an apt comparison.
When all is said and done, this is probably $8-14. It may take a while to fall to that point, but if you don’t think it will get there, here’s a little story from testing. I’m playing RG Werewolves because it’s fun, and my opponent is playing stock Delver with a playset of Masteries. He proceeded to Miracle cast all four Masteries against me, taking four extra turns and doing his thing with Delvers.
I won that game.”
Now: $16 on SCG, having steadily come down. Looks like it’s gonna end up exactly where I put it. Glad I didn’t cost anyone money here.
Then: “Preselling at $40 on SCG, which feels high to me. I think this card is pretty solid, but its place in the upcoming metagame is still a little unclear. Does this play well with Gideon? Can your deck handle two five-mana Planeswalkers? These are questions I legitimately don’t know, but I think it’s safe to say Tamiyo will be $18-25 in a few months.”
Now: $30 on SCG, but likely headed for the $20-25 mark I set for it, and then post-rotation play will determine what it does from there. I do like Tamiyo, but the problem is that she isn’t a 4-of in most decks, so it would take a Delver-like dominance of the metagame for her to push up to $40.
Then: “$10 presale. This is high, but it will be a solid pickup once it drops. It’s a huge EDH and possibly Legacy card, and foils of this ($35) on SCG should be your target.”
Now: $18, and sold out foils at $50. This is my biggest miss of the set, even though I was right about it not seeing much Standard play. Here’s the thing, though. It says “Draw seven cards” in the text box, so… yeah. This thing is blowing up Legacy and probably going to get Show and Tell banned one of these days. A big miss here on my part.
As for moving forward, I don’t love picking them up at retail, at least not until the next B/R announcement. People are gunning for it in Legacy now, and EDH players will get theirs and move on.
Then: “$15 is way too high. Think Goblin Guide. Like the Guide, it will have a place in Standard and probably find a home in Legacy. Unlike the Guide, it has to compete against Timely Reinforcements. Guide was $6-8 for its life in Standard, and this won’t be higher.”
Now: $8. Nice recovery here, with the Devil coming in where we expected it to.
Then: “Probably the most underpriced card in the set at a dollar on SCG, and the only one I would even think about buying for cash. Get in on this thing this weekend; it’s going to be in Standard. This thing will easily fit into Red decks and, more likely, will be huge in RG Ramp mirrors. $4-6 is not at all out of the question.
Grab these all weekend, and you won’t regret it. It represents nine points of damage at least with a Primeval Titan or 12 with an Inferno Titan. Probably going to be the most important card in the mirror, and I’ll be stocking up.”
Now: $5 on SCG. I feel very good about this one. I identified it when it was $.50 and picked up as many at the prerelease I could for a dollar, which paid off nicely. True sleepers like this are rarer and rarer in sets today, and it’s nice to call one like this.
Now: $7 on SCG. I missed the boat on this entirely, mostly because I underestimated Soulbond as a mechanic. It’s the “pseudo-haste” the effect gives that makes it viable on the biggest, baddest Wolf, and there was solid money to be made here. That said, I did call this on a tip a few days before the Pro Tour, so there was money to be made.
Another card I didn’t touch on originally was Bonfired of the Damned. Much like Entreat, the Miracles were just hard to evaluate. Again, I was able to rectify this a little by telling you to pick them up at $15, and the card is now out of stock at $30 on SCG.
Overall, I’m very happy with my calls for the set. While I left a little bit of money on the table by missing some big movers, Griselbrand was the only card I outright called wrong. I can handle missing a sleeper like Silverheart, especially since I was correct in every card I called for doubling up (or more with Conscripts). All in all, a very profitable set of predictions for myself and anyone who played along at home.
On a personal note – I’m back from my honeymoon, and it was awesome! I’m happily married to a beautiful wife who’s gracious enough to let me go to the SCG Invitational in Indianapolis this weekend. I’ll be playing in the main event and trading, so I should have a full report next week.
Thanks for reading,
@Chosler88 on Twitter