Insider: Speculating on the Amonkhet Spoilers

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Amonkhet is poised to shakeup the Standard metagame with a ton of great new cards, and a long-lasting impact on Modern is assured with the printing of Cycling dual lands and other cards with potential in the format. Spoiled cards are already having a real impact on the market, so today I am going to run down what cards have been impacted, and what other cards I am keeping my eyes on as potential spec targets.

Recently the spoiler was flooded with playable Zombie cards, and at this point there’s the critical mass necessary to create a true Zombie tribal deck in Standard.

The biggest beneficiary of this has been Relentless Dead, which has spiked to a new high around $8. It’s clear that Zombie decks are going to be graveyard-oriented, and sacrificing creatures is a subtheme to black in Amonkhet, so it’s sure to generate value.

All of the Zombies in Standard have seen their competitive stock rise, and thus cards like the staple Cryptbreaker are starting to trend upwards in price.

Wayward Servant points to a white Zombie deck, but blue already has fantastic tools including Prized Amalgam and even Gisa and Geralf, so I’m paying close attention to them. These cards have already seem some small gains online.

One way to bet on Zombies going blue, and the rise of blue control because of new tools in Amonkhet, is Choked Estuary, which is trending upwards online.

Another way to ride the incoming wave of control is Port Town, which is especially attractive given that Blue-White is likely to be the competitive Drake Haven-cycling deck of choice with cards like Cast Out and Renewed Faith.

Liliana, Death's Majesty is technically on the Zombie theme, but beyond its ability to make Zombies and mill cards is its ability to reanimate a creature. The most powerful creature in Standard to reanimate may be Void Winnower, and its online price moving upwards for the past few days makes me think others have caught on. It’s paper price is barely above rock bottom at $2, and it has a lot of long-term potential as a big Eldrazi, so this could be a great long-term buy with the potential to spike if it breaks out in Standard.

The biggest story from Amonkhet is the cycling dual lands, and they are going to be widely played in Standard while enabling niche decks in Modern.

The cycling lands elevate Life from the Loam to a new level in Modern, and will enable more dedicated land decks with cards like Seismic Assault. The price has moved down to around $20 after reaching nearly $30, and I don’t suspect we will see it move back up until a deck using the cycling lands prove itself.

One of the most promising ways to use the cycling duals in Standard is to reanimate them with Splendid Reclamation, which has spike to over $2. This one is already falling and I don’t see it moving back up unless a deck using it becomes tier one, which is unlikely.

Another beneficiary of the Cycling lands is The Gitrog Monster, which can draw two cards for the price of cycling one. Up to over $2 and heading up, this one isn’t likely to fall back down anytime soon, and there’s certainly room to grow if it becomes a tier-one card. Black-Green in general will be on the rise with new tools like Manglehorn, so I wouldn’t count out The Gitrog Monster. It also has plenty of long-term casual appeal

Exert has gotten the attention of the community with very powerful spoilers like Glorybringer and Glory-Bound Initiate. Exert cards work very well with vigilance, thus the spike of Always Watching.

Over $3, this card could head up towards $4 before peaking, but the long-term has this card moving nowhere but down. It’s spike has been extreme and based on speculation, and while exert is likely to have some Constructed impact, it won’t dominate enough to see Always Watching move upwards. I’d sell these and move on.

Another way to speculate on the Always Watching and exert hype are Human cards like Thalia's Lieutenant, which has been steadily moving upwards online to its highest price since before the release of Kaladesh.

The most peculiar spike since the spoilers began has been Crumbling Ashes, which works very well with and against Amonkhet’s -1/-1 counter theme. There doesn’t seem to be any real competitive application here, so it looks like a purely casual and EDH spec. It’s a testament to the power of the non-competitive player on the market, and it’s indication that even the most forgotten casual card can enter the limelight when reinvigorated by new cards.

There have been some Modern cards on the move that don't seem related to Amonkhet, but also weren’t reprinted in Modern Masters 2017 and have gained in the metagame since.

A prime example is Ad Nauseam, which is a key part of its eponymous combo deck. It spiked from over $7 to $13 and is now stable at around $11. I don’t see this falling down below $10, but I also can’t see it really moving upwards. Assuming that more and more players are moving to the deck, one way to spec would be on cards in the deck that haven’t moved, like Phyrexian Unlife, which has been stable at $2 but is now six years old with limited supply.

A New Phyrexia card that is on the move is Melira, Sylvok Outcast, which spiked from $5 to over $8. It’s not going to see a reprint anytime soon, and it’s being used in Commander as a general, specifically in competitive games, in addition to all of its Modern potential in Abzan Company decks, so this one isn’t falling and will continue to appreciate over time.

Manamorphose escaped a reprint, and now it too is growing in price like other marquee commons and uncommons that appreciated after Modern Masters 2017, with both printings over $6 and approaching $7.

On the Legacy front, keep an eye on Predict, which has seen massive growth recently from under $1 to $4. It has been used in Miracles for years to generate card advantage, and niche use in the last use by players in-the-know has grown to becoming a staple in the archetype. Most of the growth is behind it, but there won’t be more of these printed and more and more players are adopting it, so I expect it will continue to appreciate in the long-term.

Both printings of Doomsday have seen a small spike, and increase in trading leads me to believe the price of this unique card will continue to move upwards.

3 thoughts on “Insider: Speculating on the Amonkhet Spoilers

    1. I think this spec is quite silly. It’s a common, it’s pretty unspectacular. I mean, obviously there will be demand as long as people keep thinking its a good spec, but once that ends i think it will plummet.

    2. Thanks. Well Devoted Druid is old and relatively low in supply, so if it actually proves competitive then the price will stay high but otherwise it’s going to keep slowly falling.

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