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Insider: Adjusting to the Metagame of Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar

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For the dedicated Magic enthusiast, the year is broken up by several significant, paramount moments. The new set release changes everything, the unveiling of a hot new breakout deck changes everything, and the Pro Tour changes everything.

Not every Pro Tour breaks the format with an insane new deck. In fact, most Pro Tours reinforce things people already knew coming into the weekend. What's significant is that after a Pro Tour the various claims being bandied about are firmly cemented as either fact or fiction.

Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar is one of those "cementing things we knew" PTs.

Several Hall of Fame players appeared in the Top 16, alongside others who will certainly be in the Hall of Fame before they are done. A high percentage of the players at the top of the heap were players I would expect to perform, and they were all playing decks I'd expect them to: Jeskai, Abzan, Red, and G/W.

I just got done watching the finals and honestly I don't think the narrative of the event would even change much depending on who won.

Familiar Faces

Various Abzan and Jeskai decks asserted themselves as the format-defining, tier one decks in Standard. Both decks pack a ton of high-powered spells and benefit greatly from an even more consistent manabase thanks to the "Battle" or "Tango" lands.

The strength of these two decks hinges in no small part on the following cards:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mantis Rider
There was an error retrieving a chart for Siege Rhino

Mantis Rider and Siege Rhino are respectively the most powerful three- and four-cost spells in the format. To begin with, their stats are insane for the mana cost. But secondly, even the mere casting of them can turn games around--both deal damage immediately and play defense and offense simultaneously.

I've been preaching these two cards as fantastic pickups since I started writing here on QS. Next month should yield a nice payoff as players scurry to build whichever deck caught their eye. Note that many players wait until after the Pro Tour to invest in a deck because they want their purchase to be rubber-stamped by the pros.

Also, it's worth noting that both of these cards help break through opposing Hangarback Walkers. Hangarback Walker, for its part, is still clinging to a $15 price tag immediately after its reprint. Hold on to those Walkers! They will be expensive at some point in their Modern career.

Gideon

The biggest card of the tournament, without a doubt, was Gideon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Gideon had crossover success, appearing in both the Jeskai and Abzan decks--and almost always as a four-of. A lot of people are going to need a lot of Gideons...

The card already has a hefty price tag but I expect it to continue to climb as it becomes more difficult to acquire copies. It isn't exactly a surprise that the card turns out to be fantastic. Everybody who has ever cast it in Standard pretty much sang its praises--but this event cements the fact that roughly half the decks will be playing four moving forward.

Gideon will be around for another two years, and it's likely to define the format that entire time. This leads me to believe it's a buy right now despite the high price.

Certainly, if you don't own your playset I would prioritize getting in ASAP, because it will continue to climb for the next three or four weeks (unless it spikes really big this week).

Jace

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

It would be completely irresponsible of me to talk about Standard finance without dedicating a few paragraphs to Jace, the Mind Sculptor version 2.0.

The card is extremely overpowered and provides a ton of value for little investment. In addition, there are very few cards that answer it efficiently. In short, it creates a massive advantage for a tiny cost.

The card is fantastic in basically every format, which makes it relatively safe to pick up since we can assume we'll be able to play it for years. Even if it drops on rotation, play in Modern, Legacy, and yes, even Vintage will help grow the long-term value.

The card has been treading water in the $70-$80 range. With the success of Jeskai at the Pro Tour, it feels like a foregone conclusion it will creep over $100.

It isn't getting any easier to acquire copies of this extremely high-demand staple. Chances are most people are interested in playing Jace in at least one format! And don't even get me started on how good this card is as a Tiny Leaders Commander... (Well, at least until they ban it).

The combination of Gideon, Mantis Rider, and Jace makes me feel like Jeskai is the new Caw Blade. Super efficient threats, an insane planeswalker and cheap instant-speed interaction. The fact that many of the premier players in the tournament opted for Jeskai leads me to believe it will be a popular choice moving forward.

Dragonmaster Outcast

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonmaster Outcast

Dragonmaster already gained some ground over the weekend but I think it will continue to trend up. It's a great card with crossover Modern and casual applications.

Don't underestimate the ability of ridiculously popular cards to rebound to their former value after a reprinting. I'm looking at you, Wurmcoil Engine, Oblivion Stone and Hangarback Walker. Dragonmaster will get back to $10 and stay there before you know it.

Fetchlands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flooded Strand

It is also quite clear that the format is defined by the fetchland manabases. Not only do they make it possible to play three or four colors with ease, but they also quickly fill up the graveyard for delve spells.

It is basically impossible to play any constructed format without owning fetchlands. Yes, some decks use other cycles of lands, but generally speaking 95% of constructed Magic decks are fetching in some way, shape or form.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that the Khans fetches will continue to gain value even past the point where they are Standard legal. I'd be looking to pick up as many as possible, and basically anytime I see a fetchland in a trade binder I try to acquire it.

Silkwrap

Another card that has made a huge impact and quickly become an elite-level card in Standard is:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silkwrap

The card is great against Hangarback, Mantis Rider and Jace, and conveniently can be played in both Abzan and Jeskai. If the Pro Tour metagame persists, as we have every indication it will, this card will be in high demand. Look for Silkwrap to reach $1.50 or $2.00 as every local game store struggles to keep it in stock for customers.

I cannot urge you enough to check bulk and draft leftovers for copies of this card, because people will be buying them!

Anafenza

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

I'm sure this card will have already spiked by the time this article goes live, but it is worth noting that Anafenza had a tremendous tournament at PT BFZ.

The card has insane stats and pumps your other creatures, but it also pwns opposing Hangarback Walkers hard. It is pretty awesome the way it beefs up your Walkers and essentially shuts your opponent's down.

~

My takeaway from this PT is that Abzan and Jeskai will be the format-defining decks of Standard until Khans rotates. I'd be watching Khans cards closely right now and looking to sell as soon as they jump in price. Now's the time to capitalize on these cards, as spikes over the next few months will likely be their last.

Fetchlands, on the other hand, I will hold to reap dividends as Modern continues to grow. The game is growing by leaps and bounds, which basically ensures a neverending stream of players looking to buy into Modern.

The other cool takeaway is that Standard looks pretty awesome and skill-intensive. It says a lot that the top tables were dominated by the best players in the game, playing relatively known commodities.

It isn't like some team concocted a super secret deck that ran wild. Rather the format consisted of established archetypes everyone was prepared for, which the elite players nonetheless managed to leverage using superior play.

Choose your weapon and prepare to continue to Battle for Zendikar as we move into the post-PT metagame.

Insider: Deconstructing Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar

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The Top 8 from this weekend was the stuff of legend. Great pros, from Owen to Jon. PV, a Top 8 staple. Martin Muller, one of those rising stars at only 18. And the highly technical Japanese contingent, representatives of a country that has a fearsome reputation in Magic.

Jeskai, Living Life On The Edge.

Have you had a chance to read over the semifinals match between Finkel and Tamada yet? Treat yourself if not.

Keep an eye on the life totals, too. Jeskai lives close to the brink of death all the time, like no deck in recent memory.

Even in a world full of Jeskai Charm closing the door, the UWR deck will plunge to single digits. Why? Check out the match I linked to and see how the deck can remove creatures and gain life. Thanks to Ojutai's Command and Seeker of the Way, the list can bounce right back from perilous places. Not to mention, Soulfire Grand Master can gain stacks of life.

Let's break down the finance implications here. Tamada's deck has four Hangarback Walker and four Gideon. These are obviously the premier cards of Standard (Jace says "hey," too).

Jon's deck passes over both of those haymakers for a trio of Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

Now, Jeskai is a phenomenally expensive deck to put together already, so I don't expect a whole lot of these staples to rise much in price. That's because they're already so expensive that MTGO set redemptions can keep the price in check.

Though Tamada won, I expect people will play Jon's list more. The reason is that it's got lots of cool one-ofs. The people who want to play one-ofs (there are a bunch and you're reading an article by one of 'em) like cards like Dig Through Time over Treasure Cruise. They look at the trio of Kolaghan's Command and think about all the value chains they can make with it.

I expect the price of Kolaghan's Command and Tasigur to stay steady, since they are finally finding Standard play again.

Tamada's deck is a phenomenal list as well. His stream of 2/2s from both Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and Mastery of the Unseen let him go far and wide against Jon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mastery of the Unseen

Those two cards are a key in stopping Jeskai because they have very few sweepers that can eliminate a horde of tokens. Likewise, the deck has a challenge in stopping both the token maker and the tokens themselves.

Mantis Rider is still a prime threat to hold them back, but it can be handled in a variety of ways. I like Mastery of the Unseen in the next few weeks. It's cheap now and it's a potent turn-2 card. Jeskai mirror players are going to have to play a game of wondering whether to bring in Felidar Cub.

Siege Rhino is Old, Bring in Wingmates and Anafenza, The Foremost

UB Aristocrats was the talk of the tournament until it ran into Anafenza, The Foremost and stopped cold. The clan leader ran her goat chariot right over Bloodsoaked Champion, right through Zulaport Cutthroat. No more "when this dies" triggers means that the deck lost a great deal of its reach.

Now, the Rhino is still a critical card, but we saw its two companions running the show.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wingmate Roc
There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, The Foremost

Wingmate Roc has been performing well against things like Crackling Doom and Wild Slash. Five mana is not unheard-of. It has jumped up about 100% in price recently, settling at around $7. The bird has little room to go up in price, since it is in the same ludicrous set as fetchlands and stuff like Anafenza.

Remember that MTGO redemptions are the safety valve that lets off a lot of pressure on set value.

This is Gideon's Show.

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar gained a few dollars over the weekend, settling around $38 right now. That's a whopper of a price but it's also pretty reasonable for the banner card of Standard.

GW Megamorph, Abzan and Jeskai are all packing the card in full sets. This little token engine and emblem manufacturer is an incredible threat. I get the sense that someone at Wizards sighed in relief that they finally made a playable Gideon (and a 4-of, at that!).

Gideon naturally demands answers that fly. Hangarback Walker will remain strong, as will Mantis Rider. I was shocked that only one Ruinous Path ended up in the T8.

Maybe we'll see more as people ask themselves "How do I answer this Planeswalker?" Even cards like Abzan Charm are half-hearted solutions. A wary player will just keep making Knights or cash him in for a Glorious Anthem.

Quick Hits

  • Den Protector jumped from $11 to $16 this past week. A dozen copies in the T8 will keep it at that price for awhile.
  • No Aristocrats of any kind in the T8 made me sad.
  • While Esper Control did very well starting off, it fell by the wayside in the later matches. Reid Duke had a particularly cool list.
  • Seeing how expensive the rest of Standard is, Atarka Red is a good budget deck. And I hate to say that a $375 deck is budget, but it's still half the price of the rest of Standard.
  • There's a new Foil Snapcaster Mage announced as a prize for the RPTQs. Much like Liliana of the Veil, this will be in limited supply. That means the price of ol' Snappy isn't going to see much of a drop. The consensus reaction is that the new art is worse than the old art (which always seems to be the case).
  • The other decks in the T8 are $750+ to build. This is what Mythic Rare Standard looks like, and it isn't pretty.

Let me know what you thought of the Pro Tour in the comments! Join me again next week as we look at how the metagame reacted to the Pro Tour.

-Doug

The PT: Battle for Zendikar Top 8 Infographic

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Following the Day 1 and Day 2 metagame breakdown infographic from this weekend, here's our new analysis for the Top 8 of the Pro Tour. Lots of helpful information that could further help you in better Magic investments!

Stampa

Stampa

Stampa

Going Fishing at States-11th

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Hello once again Nexites, it is I your resident editor stepping out from behind the curtain to enlighten you while Trevor recovers from a whirlwind road trip and finishes recording his video series (going up tomorrow). To that end, let's talk about SCG States. First of all, I was a little surprised SCG held two State championships in the same year, but when I found out that Colorado's would be at my Local Game Store again, I decided I didn't care and began preparing. Black Gold (said LGS and States location) holds Modern tournaments four nights a week so there was plenty of opportunity to practice.

Master of the Pearl Trident art

This ended up being a problem for me. You see, my default big tournament deck is UW Merfolk, the deck which won me the last Modern PTQ in Colorado, and it had failed to perform over the week prior to States. I just kept getting bad draws and awkward opening hands that failed to develop. I was nervous and losing faith, and this nudged me down the dangerous road of audibling decks. I was so angered by my poor performance in the last several tournaments prior to States that I seriously considered going back to the deck I first played when I got back into the game and then into Modern: UW Titan. This is not the value synergy deck that Trevor showed you, this was a Kitchen Finks deck that exhausted old school Jund via value based attrition and used Sunlance to keep up with Delver and Deathrite Shaman. It used to be pretty reasonable, was it still good? I had no idea, it had been ages since I played it since it could not beat the card Birthing Pod. The deck, sometimes, but the card, no. I was frustrated enough to consider it, however, and brought it along Sunday.

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By the time I arrived at Black Gold I had mellowed enough that (helped by a distinct lack of Affinity in the room) I followed my own advice to play what you've mastered and registered the following deck.

UW Merfolk, David Ernenwein (Colorado States 2015)

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
3 Master of Waves

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Unified Will
2 Echoing Truth

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Lands

7 Island
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Wanderwine Hub
3 Mutavault
2 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Dispel
1 Unified Will
1 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Stony Silence
2 Rest in Peace
2 Hibernation
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Meddling Mage

I've been playing this list for a year and a half at this point and the only changes that have stuck are going up to four Path's main and changing three Mana Leak into two Unified Wills. I'm not going to do a full deck tech here because A) It's really just a typical Merfolk deck with better removal and sideboard options and B) I'm saving it for the next time I need to cover for technical difficulties give a regular writer a break) but there are some choices that I do need to discuss.

Missed the Boat

Harbinger of the TidesI know I'll get questions about the "missing" Harbinger of the Tides and Tidebinder Mages so I'll just answer them up front, respectively: Not right now and when would I ever. Harbinger is one of the most tempo-y? tempo cards I have ever seen. He is at home turning around races and is not great anywhere else. He cannot remove blockers (except with help from Reejery, which rarely comes up) and any savvy Twin player will play around Harbinger by either tapping the Vial or your fourth land (which you may never hit) stranding Harbinger in your hand while you lose. Yes, bouncing delve creatures is good, but if a delve creature is attacking your board is almost certainly empty or weak and a 2/2 won't change that. Right now he's only good against Burn and Infect and even then it's marginal. If Delver of Secrets was a larger part of the metagame then I would cut the Will's for Harbinger in a heartbeat and play at least another one in the side, since Harbinger is ideal for tempo-on-tempo matchups where everyone is racing. For now though, I'll stick with Echoing Truth which I can use both offensively (removing blockers) and defensively.

Tidebinder MageI do not know why Merfolk players play Tidebinder Mage in Modern. I have tried it and am always disappointed. She is at her best locking down a mana Elf turn two, but against Elves or Collected Company she does little to save you from either Ezuri, Renegade Leader or the combo. Against Jund, she usually just taps Tarmogoyf for a turn before eating a Lightning Bolt, and if that is good you were probably winning anyway. Against Infect Glistener Elf and Noble Hierarch usually don't kill you. Blighted Agent does. It would take a massive shift to Gruul for me to consider her.

I'll be covering the sideboard as I go but since I faced no matchups where I needed the Affinity hate let me explain the 3-1 split between Stony Silence and Hurkyl's Recall. Basically, Silence is better against more decks (Tron and Lantern) while Recall is better when you need to not die. Affinity is a really bad matchup even with four Recall's , so I always opt for the more widely useful option. Anyway, on to the tournament!

The Tournament

I never heard the official count, but up to table 29 was occupied so we had at least 58 players for 6 rounds of Swiss. It would take four wins and probably a draw to make Top 8 . Looking around the room beforehand suggested that blue was really under represented, with lots of Junk, Naya, Elves and Collected Company and very few Twin players. Plenty of Burn too, but that isn't unusual. Colorado States have always had lots of Burn, even back when Wizards still ran them. There were also a number of other Merfolk players which I found odd, I've grown accustomed to being the only one in the room.

Round 1-Alex Khanin, UWb Titan (Win 2-1)

Well this is annoying, I don't like playing people I know at big events. Alex is a former regular at Black Gold, well-known for foiling out his decks. This naturally led me to give him much grief over the fact that he had not done so with this deck, which I knew that he had finished buying right before the tournament began. He was playing a Titan list that splashed black for Lingering Souls and removal, having cut the Mortarpods and some of the value creatures.

Game one
Aether VialI play first and lead with Aether Vial, which ends up getting Detention Sphered after giving me a Cursecatcher and Silvergill Adept. The two Merfolk are joined by a hardcasted lord to get around his Lingering Souls and Wall of Omens. Alex tries to draw himself out of the hole with Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and almost does but misplays his Ojutai's Command into my Cursecatcher and it's off to game two.

Sideboarding:
-2 Path to Exile
-1 Aether Vial
-1 Spreading Seas
+2 Rest in Peace
+2 Tectonic Edge

I usually shave a Vial on the draw since it is a terrible topdeck. As for Path, I only want to target his Titans, which I know are a three-of at most (Black Gold was running out of Titans on Friday and sold out Saturday). RiP should keep Jace's in check and protect against Snapcaster Mage and Sun Titan, while Edge will be better for disrupting mana and keeping Emeria from activating.

Game Two

This is one of the kinds of games that made me question Merfolk in the first place. I get Alex down to two life at one point but can never seal the deal because. I drew. 14. Land. And got a 15th from Path to Exile. Rest in Peace and all four Edges keep me in the game for a while, but with only four creatures until late in the game Alex finds a Jace which eventually loots him into a win.

Game Three

CursecatcherI lead with Cursecatcher and follow with Master of the Pearl Trident, piling on pressure while Alex has few answers and is never really in the game. He gains some life back with Lone Missionary but it's not enough. The last several turns Alex could have sequenced differently and played Wrath of God into Day of Judgment without worrying about Cursecatcher, but he doesn't and just dies. As consolation I point out that I had two Mutavaults and had two Lord of Atlantis on top anyway and he was at eight. Maybe if he had hit the maximum number of foil triggers he would have won. /troll

Round 2-Hans Feng, UR Twin (Win 2-0)

Hans is a well-known local player who normally plays a Twin variant. Last time I won he was playing Grixis Twin. Last time he won it was RUG Twin (I refuse to call it Temur and YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!) so I was hoping for a repeat of Grixis.

Game One

He's actually on UR which is a much better matchup for me. They cannot race as effectively as RUG and cannot play the value game as well as Grixis: it's really combo or bust against Merfolk. Game one is barely a game and I go Vial into Lord, Cursecatcher for Remand, Reejery and Master of the Pearl Trident for a turn four kill. Hans' mulligan may have helped but honestly only a string of Bolts could have saved him.

Sideboarding:
-4 Spreading Seas
-1 Aether Vial
+1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
+1 Dispel
+1 Unified Will
+1 Rest in Peace
+1 Tectonic Edge

As I said, I shave a Vial on the draw and Seas just isn't good against two color decks that run blue. The one-ofs are either adding numbers or keeping me from dying while I run him over.

Game Two

KiraWe both mulligan and Hans forgets to scry and I don't. According to him it makes no difference. It will be awhile before this stops being a problem for we long-time players.

This is a very silly game. I kept a Kira, two land, two Path and Will hand and scryed away another Kira. My first play is Rest in Peace, which resolves. Hans' is a Deceiver Exarch that taps one of my lands, which makes no difference since all my lands are Wanderwine Hubs and I still have no Merfolk. I don't die to Twin and play Kira and we trade beats for a while until Hans plays another Deceiver to break the glass and Bolt to kill Kira. I respond by Pathing both Exarchs and then Willing his Bolt. Eventually I get a Master of the Pearl Trident, which trades for a Snapcaster Mage and then a Mutavault and I just get there, Hans having nothing but counters and a useless Splinter Twin in hand.

Round 3-Doug Hendrickson, Naya Zoo (Lost 1-2)

Ick, this is bad news. You may have seen Doug's name before, he made ninth at GP Oklahoma. His deck is basically a Standard Naya Blitz deck with white for Path and sometimes Boros Charm, which makes it very strong against decks like mine. I have never beaten him before. I had no hope of doing so Sunday. I did not.

Game One

Goblin GuideDoug comes roaring out of the gate with Goblin Guide and Tarmogoyfs. I'm never really in though I fight with Path's and Master of Waves but it is in vain against his Wild Nacatls, Burning-Tree Emissary and Ghor-Clan Rampager follow-up. When I can't block profitably I struggle to remove creatures from the board and he had many.

Sideboarding:
-2 Unified Will
+2 Hibernation

I am never going to counter anything with Will and Hibernation is very effective against green creature decks. I wish I could take out some Seas since they're too slow here but I have nothing else that would be better. I keep my Vials in since I really need them to keep with his one drops.

Game Two

HibernationThis time I have enough creatures and can trade effectively enough to stabilize at four life thanks to a timely Hibernation. If I had more than two blue sources then I might have been higher but it worked out since a pile of Master of the Pearl Tridents manages to overrun Doug's board before he finds the burn or Ghor-Clan Rampager to kill me.

Game Three

I keep a reasonable hand with Cursecatcher into Master of the Pearl Trident, Reejerey, and Hibernation with lands. Doug mulligans and gets Grim Lavamancer, four fetchlands and two Bolts to completely shut me down while I draw all my Vials and no more creatures. Even if I had boarded out a Vial it would have made no difference (the card on the top of my deck when I died was the fourth Vial). Argh.  Doug is a bad matchup for me so it isn't surprising but it's still frustrating when your deck just doesn't perform.

Round 4-Andy O'Leary, Naya Burn (Won 2-1)

Andy is a shop regular and in fact crushed me at the FNM before States with Mardu Burn (because someone was borrowing his Atarka's Commands at the time). At States, I got my revenge.

Game One

I'm on the play but don't have anything turn one while Andy has Goblin Guide, which is the best way for Burn to beat Merfolk. It is pretty easy to race Swiftspear or a burn spell turn one but Guide is brutal. He also has the Searing Blaze for my second turn Silvergill Adept and I fall too far behind to catch up.

Sideboarding:
-3 Spreading Seas
-1 Aether Vial
+1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
+1 Tectonic Edge
+1 Dispel
+1 Unified Will

Spreading Seas is too tempo negative here, though sometimes you do need one to break through. We also take out a Vial since Burn often brings in Destructive Revelry. The one-ofs are mainly to protect against burn spells and because we need another thing to bring in and Meddling Mage rarely works against Burn (I've tried).

GEidolon of the Great Revelame Two

Andy has Guide again, but this time I have Vial and stabilize at ten. A string of burn might save him from my lords but all he has are Eidolon of the Great Revels, which aren't enough to save him.

Game Three

Andy has Guide again, and I think I'm dead. Fortunately he runs out of gas when I'm at one life and I have Aether Vial to get around his Eidolon. I get Lord and Reejerey out and start beating him, hoping to capitalize on the damage he's done to himself through shocklands and Eidolon triggers and pray to fade burn spells for a few turns. It works. I draw Mutavault and Master of Waves while he gets Sacred Foundry and Monastery Swiftspear. It was a huge relief to win this one and stay alive, but I'm not going to pretend that I was anything other than lucky to win.

Round 5-Tim Kempter, Infect (Lost 2-1)

Finally someone I don't know! Time for a win and in. Tim is pleasant and friendly enough, though I despise Infect and consider the mechanic a mistake.

Game One

Spreading SeasI'm on the play and lead with Vial then Seas on his Pendelhaven, which proves to be his only green source. He never gets an infector greater than 1/1 and my lords get there. At one point I think I hear him say that Kira affects every creature. It doesn't but I was not about to clarify what he said for fear of clearing up a misconception that could win me the game. It wasn't relevant if he actually did think that it, since he couldn't play anything. Seeing him play after the fact I decide that I just misheard: he seemed too experienced to misunderstand Kira.

 

Sideboarding:
-1 Aether Vial
-2 Unified Will
+1Dispel
+2 Hibernation

Will is too slow usually and again I shave Vial on the draw. Dispel is actually pretty good since it's very cheap and Hibernation is better than the alternatives and can just work if Infect is relying on Noble Hierarch instead of pump spells for Glistener Elf.

Game Two

I manage his infectors well before starting to build my board, knowing that I'm dead if he has Nature's Claim to free his Inkmoth Nexus. Guess what he has?

Blighted AgentGame Three

I take a long time to decide to keep. I can interact via blockers for Glistener Elf and Inkmoth Nexus, but cannot beat Blighted Agent. My clock is fast enough that I finally decide not to roll the dice on a new hand. Guess what he has?

I probably should have mulliganed, but Infect is not a great matchup anyway and I did consciously decide to lose to one card so I shouldn't complain. I will anyway, but I shouldn't.

Round 6-Kylen Fishler, Amulet Bloom (Won 2-1)

After looking at standings I have the second best breakers of the nine pointers. There are enough 12 pointers that some must play it out. Therefore it is still possible for me to make it in to Top 8 but at least four players, probably six, ahead of me must play and my breakers must remain at least second best. If that doesn't work out, I'm very much alive for Top 16 and prizes so time to win and hope.

Game One

Path to ExileI double mulligan, Kylen mulligans. Despite getting to Cursecatch a Summer Bloom the fact that I draw three Vials (again) means that Kylen gets Titan and 16's me. Had my last draw been a Path I might have lasted another turn but it's just my fourth land and I lose.

Sideboarding:

-2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
-4 Spreading Seas
+2 Meddling Mage
+2 Tectonic Edge
+1 Unified Will
+1 Hibernation

In my experience Seas is a pretty minor speed bump for Bloom and they bring in sweepers rather than targeted removal. Our goal is to keep them off Primeval Titan so Will and Mages come in and Tec Edge can be back-breaking if you don't just die before they come online. Ghost Quarter just buys time normally.

Game Two

Kylen mulligans, I play Lord of Atlantis, he plays Pyroclasm. I play Master of the Pearl Trident, he plays Amulet into Engineered Explosives. I play Merrow Reejerey and Cursecatcher and he does nothing for the rest of the game but scry away lands with Serum Visions. At the end he revealed that he had only land in hand. The price you pay for running 26 minimum.

Game Three

Slaughter PactI'm kind of a bystander this game. Kylen uses Ancient Stirrings to find Ugin, Seal of Primordium to kill my Vial and Slaughter Pact to kill himself. Yes, he plays Pact on a Silvergill Adept either thinking that his Tendo Ice Bridge still had a counter on it (he'd used it for Stirrings), that he had left Gemstone Mine in play instead when he played his bounce land or possibly that his Gruul Turf was actually Golgari Rot Farm, but I didn't want to ask and appear to rub salt in the wound. There's no way I'll let him take it back, he announced it and chose the target, so I win. It feels scummy but if you're going to play at Competitive REL this is what you need to be ready for and if you misplay a pact I will take my free win. Still sucks for him though.

Final record 4-2

So now I nervously wait for Top 8 announcement. I had the second best breakers of the 9-pointers so I'm hoping that holds through the final round. Announcement comes and...nope. It appears that too many 12 pointers drew for any new 12's to make it in. My breakers also fell precipitously, probably because the two players I lost to drew in. Ah well, 11th is still enough for some BfZ packs. I plan to go home immediately but it's raining so I end up staying long enough to see what made the Top 8 and was very surprised:

Burn vs. Living Twin

Infect vs. Junk

Jund vs. Elves

Naya Zoo vs. Abzan Collected Company

Both the players I lost to made it in, so that's some consolation. No blue decks and a very fringe, though fun, deck. Which probably means that our metagame summary is still accurate. I only stay for the quarterfinals (because it stopped raining and I was hungry) but Top 4 consisted of Living Twin, Junk, Jund and Naya Zoo, and apparently Doug won the thing with his Naya Zoo list, so at least I lost to the winner.

Get them Next Time

Overall I ended up being pleased that I didn't audible as the only deck where Titan had a better matchup than Merfolk was against Doug's Zoo deck. That said, while I do like Merfolk and will definitely play it again next time a big tournament rolls around I would not necessarily recommend my deck to anyone else. I picked up the basic shell back in Lorwyn and this history means that I play very differently from most Fisherman I've met. I tend to play around more cards and plan to play a longer game than almost everyone else. Still, Merfolk of any variety is a very powerful option and is worth trying if you want to avoid the value wars most decks play. I await your suggestions and feedback in the comments!

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David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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Posted in Modern, TournamentsTagged , , 9 Comments on Going Fishing at States-11th

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The PT: Battle for Zendikar Infographic

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ProtourBFZ_DAY1 (1) ProtourBFZ_DAY2 (1)We just received these gorgeous infographics from our own Diego Fumagalli. Check 'em out!

 

 

Insider: Pro Tour Interviews with Patrick Chapin, Owen Turtenwald and Shaun McLaren

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It's not every day you get to chat with some of the best Magic players around, but today's not just "every day", it's Pro Tour Friday! I've composed a suite of 5 short questions that Pros can quickly answer in between rounds, which I think will give us a great snapshot of what the best of the best are thinking coming into this weekend.  Here's a run-down of what they said*.

First, what's your favorite BFZ card and why?

Patrick Chapin: Ob Nixilis - I like drawing cards and it's fun.

Owen Turtenwald: Woodland Wanderer - just a cool card, fun, giant, not boring because you need to play it in a 4-color deck. Most fun

Shaun McLaren: Ob Nixilis - Cool art, powerful Planeswalker.

What card do you hope you don't have to play against this weekend?

Patrick: The Great Aurora - if someone casts it against me I missed something in testing, and if it's on the stack i'm probably already losing.

Owen: Temur Battle Rage - games don't last too long when people cast it.

Shaun: Planar Cleansing, Dampening Pulse in draft.

Are there any cards that surprised you or your team in testing, either by over- or under-performing?

Patrick: Silkwrap overperformed - it's the only card for 2 or less mana that can beat a Jace or Hangarback Walker on the draw. Despise too, for similar reasons. Duress, Negate, both are really good, too.

Owen: Anticipate overperformed.

Shaun: Clash of Wills, it's not on everyone's radar.

What's the best card no-one's playing?

Patrick: Ulamog, It's like Dragonlord Atarka for only 3 more mana!

Owen: Ultimate Price - every deck has Jace, so its a great cheap answer. Not as popular as expected.

Shaun: Clash of Wills.

In a few words, what is the key to BFZ Standard?

Patrick: Fetching up battle lands.

Owen: Play 4 or 5 colors. Either you play mono-red or a 4-color deck.

Shaun: Tempo.

You can expect many more of these throughout the weekend as we continue our live on-site coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar, only for QS Insiders!

 

* These are paraphrased answers, not exact quotes, but they accurately represent what was said!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in Battle for Zendikar - General Discussion and News, Free Insider, Pro Tour Battle for ZendikarLeave a Comment on Insider: Pro Tour Interviews with Patrick Chapin, Owen Turtenwald and Shaun McLaren

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Deck Tech: UB Aristocrats from Christian Calcano & Team TOGIT’s

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We've been waiting to see a deck featuring Liliana, Heretical Healer for a few months, and now that it's powered up with Zulaport Cutthroat, it's finally seeing the limelight.

Here's the deck list as told on the offical WOTC Twitch stream, by Brian David-Marshall:

UB Aristocrats

4 Nantuko Husk
4 Whirler Rogue
4 Zulaport Cutthroat
4 Liliana, Heretical Healer
4 Bloodsoaked Champion
4 Sidisi's Faithful
4 Hangarback Walker
4 Sultai Emissary
4 Murderous Cut
1 Vampiric Rites
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
1 Foundry of the Consuls
3 Sunken Hollow
8 Swamp
1 Island

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Heretical Healer

Insider: Interviews with LSV, Ari Lax and Alan Comer (LIVE From PTBFZ)

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It's not every day you get to chat with some of the best Magic players around, but today's not just "every day", it's Pro Tour Friday! I've composed a suite of 5 short questions that Pros can quickly answer in between rounds, which I think will give us a great snapshot of what the best of the best are thinking coming into this weekend.  Here's a run-down of what they said*.

First, what's your favorite BFZ card and why?

Luis Scott-Vargas: Bring to Light leads to a lot of interesting decisions and fun play experiences. You get to play lots of 1-ofs

Ari Lax: Woodland Wanderer - he's the biggest greenest guy.

Alan Comer: Roil Mage - He looks like fun!

What card do you hope you don't have to play against this weekend?

LSV: Deathmist Raptor - It's a good threat, good against my deck.

Ari: Ruination Guide - if Isee it, that means we didn't evaluate it right.

Alan: Atarka's Command - By the time they cast it, something bad is happening.

Are there any cards that surprised you or your team in testing, either by over- or under-performing?

LSV: Siege Rhino underperforming, much worse with the loss of Thoughtseize.

Ari: Ruinous Path is shockingly mediocre

Alan: we'll talk tomorrow 🙂 every card that costs more than 3 underperformed. The format is just TOO fast.

What's the best card no-one's playing?

LSV: Rally the Ancestors - The Rally deck is actually good, it feels like its underplayed compared to power level.

In a few words, what is the key to BFZ Standard?

LSV: Playing to a board. Building creatures, developing position. Combat & removal.

Ari: mana bases, how you utilize the tangos. These are the best mana bases since Vivid/Reflecting Pool, its about determining how you want to approach the interaction with battle lands. You can stretch your mana to play 4 colors in Jacekai, perfect 2 color in GW, 3 color shards can do all untapped. using off color fetches to get tangos . Remember that Flooded Strand can't fetch a red dual.

You can expect many more of these throughout the weekend as we continue our live on-site coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar, only for QS Insiders!

 

* These are paraphrased answers, not exact quotes, but they accurately represent what was said!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

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Insider: Our Ongoing BFZ Coverage

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Hey Insiders! Here's our repository for all of our Insider info from the Pro Tour. They're emailed out and also posted in the forums. The newest alerts will always be on top.

6pm Friday night

Kelly sent along the top 24 tables, minus the feature matches from Round 3. Due to requirements that come with our press badge, we cannot list who these players were. We also have to jumble which tables are which, so the top of this list is not the top table. Nonetheless, it's a near-complete list. Lots of Atarka Red. All of the Esper decks are packing Dragons, as far as Kelly can tell.

GW mirror match
Abzan vs. Esper
Jeskai vs. Atarka Red
Atarka Red mirror match
Jeskai vs. Esper
Jeskai vs. Atarka Red
Jeskai vs. Atarka Red
Atarka Red mirror match
Atarka vs. Esper Control
GW vs. Jeskai
Atarka Red vs. Jeskai
Jeskai vs. 5-color brew
Jeskai vs. ??
Esper Control vs. Jeskai
Atarka Red mirror match
Jeskai vs. Jeskai
Atarka Red vs. Jeskai
Esper Dragons vs. Abzan Control
Abzan-Mardu mashup vs. Jeskai
Esper vs. Jeskai
Jeskai vs. Abzan

Individual interesting cards:
Shambling Vent is everywhere. Much more prevalent than Lumbering Falls.

Two decks at the high tables had Butcher of the Horde.

Two of the Atarka Red decks are running Dragon Whisperer, including someone who recently placed highly in a Pro Tour.

One GW megamorph player was running Tragic Arrogance in his 75.

Mastery of the Unseen has been spotted in a Jeskai shell.

Multiple copies of Flamewake Phoenix are showing up in Atarka Red decks.

Multiple copies of Ob Nixilis in Abzan and Esper shells.

Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker is most common in Jeskai.

Evolutionary Leap is showing up in the G/W Decks.

Radiant Flames is ubiquitous.

There's a deck running Shaman of the Forgotten Ways at a VERY high table. Kelly says it's not a pure ramp deck.

5pm Friday night

Kelly got info in from Round 2 for me. He also made a metagame breakdown that came in just as WOTC posted theirs :\ He was accurate on the numbers, at the very least!

More info, in the form of a brain dump from Kelly. He's going to watch the top tables next round and get a read on what's doing really well.
Jace is everywhere.
Liliana is a staple in the Aristocrats deck.
Silumgar, the Drifting Death is much more popular than expected.
Flamewake Phoenix is in a few red decks.
Warden of the First Tree is everywhere.
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker is more popular than expected.
Stratus Dancer is in the Bant Megamorph lists.
Silumgar's Command made a short appearance.
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury is doing work in Token decks.
An Arashin Foremost was spotted, once.
One build of Aristocrats was running Grim Haruspex.
Thunderbreak Regent is popular.
Mastery of the Unseen is in a lot of the megamorph lists.

3pm Friday afternoon

As I'm watching right now, Nassif is facing down dragons from Atarka Red. His Smothering Abomination has been doing a great deal of work. So my first advice is to pick these up, since they're getting bought up right now.

Kelly emailed in notes from his interviews with PinkBunnyGames.com, one of the two dealers in the room. His notes follow:

  • Despoiler of Souls was sold to 4 guys on the same team, surprisingly.  Sold with Liliana, Bloodsoaked Champion.
  • Oblivion Sower was marked up because of the GP buyout.
  • Wingmate Roc was marked up because of low supply.
  • Knew Surge of Righteousness was going to sell, marked up, still sold out twice.
  • Dragonlord Ojutai - didn't sell a single copy.
  • The uncommons were hot.  Silkwrap was the most sold single card.
  • People needed checklist cards.
  • Hidden Dragonslayer - inexpensive rare. people often needed 1 more.  its a good "bad rare"., sells a ton online.
  • Several people bought singleton Woodland Wanderer
  • Rush of people bought 1 or 2 copies Exert Influence all at once.
  • most sales came from sideboard / metagame tweaks.
  • things they decided to buy online at retail, in reaction to what was happening: dragonmaster outcast, flamewake phoenix, soulfire grand master
  • sold a lot of gideons, more than expected
  • demonic pact double-retail price was not really intentional.
  • molten vortex was not purchased in any quantity

 

11am, Friday Morning

I just got off the phone with Kelly about what's been selling well.

First, a note on what we can and cannot find out. First, the dealers are absolutely barred from talking to us until the first round of Constructed starts. However, Kelly has lined up interviews so we should be able to get more complete information in a few hours. As part of Kelly's press credentials, he is unable to name anyone by name or team until the event starts.

However, out of simple protracted observation, Kelly found that:

  • Red cards, including Temur Battle Rage and Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh have been in high demand. There is slight movement on Molten Vortex (!) and Dragonmaster Outcast, due to the Jeskai decks.
  • Lantern Scout was purchased very discreetly.
  • Infinite Obliteration was selling briskly.
  • Complete Disregard and Transgress the Mind were also selling very well, especially the latter. Foils are the pickup targets here.
  • Woodland Wanderer was purchased, so someone still believes in that card!
  • Nobody was buying Jace; I presume that's because people already had him.
  • End Hostilities was purchased alongside Exert Influence.

Again, we can't ID people even if we knew them and the dealers can't talk about what's been selling well (yet). But you're not gonna find this info anywhere other than through QS Insider.

Remember to drop by the chat room (it gets busy during Standard rounds) and stop by the forum coverage thread to see more!

2am, Friday Morning


Good morning QS Insiders!  When you read this, it'll be just before the start of Day 1 here at Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  As I write this, the Thursday night players' meeting has just concluded, and understandablyeveryone is very tight-lipped about what they're playing. Regardless, we still have a ton of great information to share.  Grab a coffee, make yourself comfortable and get ready for an interesting weekend.

There are only two vendors on-site at the Pro Tour (Dan Bock's Power 9 and Damien Miller's Pink Bunny).  P9 didn't have their cards on display, but Pink Bunny did, and permitted me to snap pictures of their display case and prices.

A list of 22 noteworthy on-site prices and their comparison to the Trader Tools prices are displayed below.    (Click any card image to view the full Trader Tools report).  I want to draw attention to 9 specific cards before showing you the entire list:
Wingmate Roc ($10) is listed on-site for twice it's current retail price, perhaps an indication of  anticipated strong demand.

Liliana, Heretical Healer ($25) is selling at almost a $10 premium.  A Pro who wishes to remain nameless (but performed very well at the last PT) has some strong positive opinions on this card, and the huge mark-up tells me there's something afoot.

Silumgar, the Drifting Death ($2) is listed for over twice its price, and I saw at least one Pro purchase the card.  We've discussed it to death on the forums and on podcasts so this should not be a surprise.

Hidden Dragonslayer is also part of the glamorous "double club", selling at $4 while retailing normally for less than $2.

Silkwrap, a 25 cent DTK Uncommon, is selling for $2, as it seems to be an amazing answer to most of the best creatures in the format.

Ruinous Path, one of the best cards in BFZ, is selling for $3 over it's retail price.  Not surprising given its power level.

Demonic Pact ($6) is also a member of the Double Club.  I'm wary of this card in a set with so many other expensive Mythic Rares, but the on-site dealers aren't going to jack a card way up just for fun.  There's a reason this is so expensive, and I am eager to find out what that reason might be.  I have a hunch it's going to be in an Abzan list taking advantage of Dromoka's Command.

Dragonlord Ojutai is selling onsite for an insane $50, almost twice its current retail price.  I don't even know what to say here!  The card is great, but is it really that great?  Only time (and a few hundred matches of Magic this weekend) will tell.

Finally, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is selling at $45, a $10 premium on retail.  I mention Gideon because I have heard whispers of people who believe he has the potential to become even more expensive.  That's a tall order for a card that's already $35 and can't be cast with blue mana, but if he dominates the format, it's possible that he syphons all the value from an otherwise weak set.  You better believe I'll be keeping a close eye on this guy from the word "you have 50 minutes, you may begin".

Here are the aforementioned cards, along with a few others, and their corresponding current market prices.

On-Site Price: $10
On-Site Price: $2
On-Site Price: $5
On-Site Price: $4
On-Site Price: $2
On-Site Price: $8
On-Site Price: $4
On-Site Price: $25*
On-Site Price: $30
On-Site Price: $6
On-Site Price: $3
On-Site Price: $45
On-Site Price: $2*
On-Site Price: $3
On-Site Price: $5
On-Site Price: $11
On-Site Price: $12
On-Site Price: $80
On-Site Price: $2
On-Site Price: $20
On-Site Price: $50
On-Site Price: $9

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

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Insider: Interviews with Craig Wescoe & Jon Finkel (LIVE From PTBFZ)

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It's not every day you get to chat with two of the best Magic players around, but today's not just "every day", it's Pro Tour Friday! I've composed a suite of 5 short questions that Pros can quickly answer in between rounds, which I think will give us a great snapshot of what the best of the best are thinking coming into this weekend.  Here's a run-down of what they said*.

Jon Finkel
Jon Finkel
Craig Wes
Craig Wescoe

First, what's your favorite BFZ card and why?

JonThe new Dual Lands. BFZ is a weak set overall, and they enable so many decks because your mana base is very flexible.

Craig: Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, especially in white aggro decks.  All 3 modes are relevant and useful at different stages of the game. Glorious Anthem for your team is always great, attacking with a 5/5 after getting your board wiped is great, and making 2/2s on an empty board is also excellent.

What card do you hope you don't have to play against this weekend?

Jon: No specific card, but control decks in general.

Craig: Languish, its the kind of card that kills all my guys and forces a reset at a point in the game where the Languish deck is better suited to play against an empty board.

Are there any cards that surprised you or your team in testing, either by over- or under-performing?

Jon: No.  The decks are all very similar to pre-rotation decks.

Craig: Silkwrap outperformed expectations.  It deals with many of the best cards very efficiently.

What's the best card no-one's playing?

Jon: In Constructed, Smothering Abomination, but I'm not sure he has a home in a deck yet.  In Draft, Dampening Pulse.

Craig: Retreat to Emeria - It can take over a game and it's not on anyone's radar.

In a few words, what is the key to BFZ Standard?

Jon: It's pre-rotation, KTK block Standard with better mana bases.

Craig: Activating Planeswalkers.

Thanks to Jon and Craig for their time this Friday!  You can expect many more of these throughout the weekend as we continue our live on-site coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar, only for QS Insiders!

 

* These are paraphrased answers, not exact quotes, but they accurately represent what was said!

Many Moons, Part I: Growing the Best Tarmogoyf

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My love affair with Tarmogoyf began while I wasn't playing Magic at all. But "you never really quit," and as winter ebbed in 2009, I found myself pouring over Legacy decklists to see how the game had changed since I'd begun my hiatus triggered by Kamigawa block (specifically Umezawa's Jitte) leaving Standard.

Anyone who played a constructed format around this time can tell you in a heartbeat what I found. Legions of Merfolk, Zoo, and even CounterTop decklists with one thing in common: a playset of Tarmogoyf.

tarfire art

I was spellbound. What was this weird-looking creature doing in tribal aggro decks? In dedicated control decks?  In combo? Why were people playing it with Tarfire? What was Tarmogoyf, even? Never mind the hours I spent trying to decipher Justin Murray's famously despised, now-iconic Future Sight artwork. Tarmogoyf had me hooked. Today, he's still got homes in a few Legacy decks, but he's all but extinct in Vintage and almost certainly never returning to Standard. Thankfully for his fans, he'll always have a place in our hearts and decklists in Modern.

What Tarmogoyf Does

TarmogoyfTarmogoyf represents the peak of power/toughness efficiency. I love cards that excel at their jobs. Take the most powerful burn spell of all time, Lightning Bolt. Despite the card's simplicity, its flexibility is unrivaled. My favorite creatures follow Bolt's example, attacking and blocking very well and doing almost nothing else; I'll play Delver of Secrets, Wild Nacatl, and Hooting Mandrills over wordy staples like Snapcaster Mage and Tasigur, the Golden Fang any day.

Just as Lightning Bolt can kill a creature or help bring opponents to zero life, Tarmogoyf can swing like a ton of bricks or wall opposing aggression. This versatility makes him a mainstay in decks with multiple gameplans, like Delver and BGx, and a serious consideration for anyone who wants to win some games by attacking in Modern.

Lightning BoltIn Magic, an "ability" as simple as "this creature is way bigger than it should be" adds countless dimensions to games, and to deckbuilding in general. None of Modern's removal performs as well as Lightning Bolt given the format's speed, and Goyf is its only reasonable attacker who survives the instant for just two mana. That means he outclasses all other creatures at his mana cost, itself located halfway to four, the crucial turn in Modern; Goyf then has enough time to pressure opponents and leave his master with open mana to answer game-winning plays. All these elements combine to provide the perfect Stomping Ground for Tarmogoyf, while pulling the format's "goodstuff" archetypes like tempo and midrange into green.

One List to Change It All

When Modern was announced, I messed around with various Tarmogoyf decks. I even ran a RUG Faeries deck for a few months when my set came in the mail (it looked like the midrange RUG Delver lists of 2012, but with Spellstutter Sprite over the transforming Wizard). When Khans of Tarkir came out, I started playing Kitty Cruise, or Counter-Cat with a set of now-banned sorceries. But I never stopped searching for "Modern decks containing Tarfire," and in October 2014, I discovered this little number from Japan:

GR Aggro, by Igarashi Ryuuta

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Magus of the Moon
4 Ghor-Clan Rampager
1 Thundermaw Hellkite

Instants

2 Lightning Bolt
2 Tarfire
3 Pyretic Ritual
3 Desperate Ritual

Sorceries

2 Flame Slash

Other

3 Seal of Fire
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Blood Moon
2 Chandra, Pyromaster

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Stomping Ground
7 Mountain
2 Forest

Sideboard

2 Ratchet Bomb
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Spellskite
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Pithing Needle
1 Torpor Orb
1 Combust
1 Molten Rain
1 Sulfur Elemental
1 Shatterstorm

I couldn't believe my eyes. Tarmogoyf, Tarfire, and Blood Moon together. Here was the deck I'd always wanted! While my experiments mashing Aether Vial, Grisly Salvage, and Bitterblossom together yielded 8/9 Goyfs a good chunk of the time, nagging memories of Lightning Bolt's insane power always made me homesick enough to bench the project. But while I sacrificed the 8/9 dream for "Draw 3 Wild Nacatls," Igarashi Ryuuta had been living it on the other side of the world.

Far from crushing my spirit, Treasure Cruise's banning gave me an opportunity to again focus on the Tarmogoyf/Blood Moon deck. I had a real reason not to despair, unlike the dirgeful Pod players at Face to Face. To their chagrin, my last 4-0 with Treasure Cruise played out like a celebratory Día de los Muertos. Then I went home and started brewing, with Abzan looming menacingly over Modern.

Dorking Up

snow mountainHaving established my crush on Tarmogoyf, I'd be remiss not to mention my infatuation with Blood Moon. As I bit into Modern, I spent some time working on Skred Red, eventually splashing green for Lhurgoyfs. Even with Spirit Guides, I couldn't turn-two Blood Moon consistently enough for me, especially since opponents fetched basic lands at the mere sight of a Snow-Covered Mountain. Ryuuta's list ran the Goyfs now required to keep my attention, the Tarfires I so badly wanted to sleeve up in Modern, and enough acceleration to take full advantage of the gamebreaking Blood Moon.

Since no one played Chalice of the Void to prevent us from playing one-drops, and we're in green anyway,Birds of Paradise I don't understand Ryuuta's choice to play Rituals over mana birds. Rituals have some benefits, such as "surprising" opponents with a burst of mana and not getting chewed up by Lightning Bolt, but they only put us ahead a mana for one turn. Birds of Paradise, on the other hand, pushes us ahead for the whole game, allowing us to follow Blood Moon with higher-curve haymakers like Huntmaster of the Fells. Additionally, it seemed to me like attracting Bolts wasn't a horrible place for Birds to be, considering the low toughness of Goblin Rabblemaster and Magus of the Moon. In the following builds, I scraped the rituals (and eventually the Sprit Guides) for mana dorks.

Blood Moon and TURBOGOYF

Blood MoonAn early Blood Moon can prove impossible for game one opponents to overcome and the time it buys us is best utilized beating them up with efficient threats. Modern’s most efficient threat is Tarmogoyf, a card so far off the format’s relative power level it’s become infamous as a $200 staple that fits into just about everything. TURBOGOYF's strategy resembles that of Legacy Stompy lists, which use Sol lands, Spirit Guides, and Moxen to power out powerful lock pieces like Blood Moon, Trinisphere, and Chalice of the Void. Stompy decks follow these effects with resilient beaters to close out the game before opponents can respond meaningfully.

Moon in Modern

Players expect the three-mana enchantment in game two from decks with stable-looking manabases, but they still lose to it. In game one, and especially on the second turn, it’s nigh unbeatable for many decks, especially when supplemented with fast pressure. Modern manabases are incredibly greedy, and even two-color decks frequently play manabases comprised almost entirely of nonbasics (GW Hatebears, BW Tokens, UW Control) or that rely heavily on nonbasics to function optimally (UB Mill, UR Twin, Gx Company).

In January 2015, I wrote up this list of the known Modern archetypes, and Moon's relevance against each. I  sorted the decks into 4 categories: ones that auto-lost to Blood Moon, ones that lost to Blood Moon almost every time it resolved, ones that could still win through Blood Moon, and ones that ignored the Moon entirely. Asterisks denote "big" decks.

Lost to Moon (9)

  • Amulet Bloom*
  • Scapeshift*
  • Ad Nauseam*
  • Infect*
  • Bogles*
  • Abzan Midrange*
  • WUR Control
  • 4-Color Gifts
  • Fabiano BUG

Often lost to Moon (23)

  • Tribal Zoo*
  • Grixis Delver*
  • BW Tokens*
  • GR Tron*
  • RUG Twin
  • Grixis Twin
  • Grixis Control
  • Abzan Company
  • Podless Melira
  • Naya Zoo
  • WUR Delver
  • Dredgevine
  • GW Hatebears
  • Grixis Delve
  • Little Kid Junk
  • Assault Loam
  • Jund
  • UB Tezzeret
  • UB Faeries
  • UB Mill
  • Matryr-Proc
  • Kibler's Midrange Naya
  • Esper Midrange

Was annoyed by Moon (11)

  • UR Twin*
  • Living End*
  • Burn*
  • Affinity*
  • UR Storm
  • Merfolk
  • RUG Delver
  • RUG Moon
  • Norin the Wary
  • Collected Elves
  • Mono-Blue Tron

Didn't care about Moon (7)

  • UR Delver
  • Soul Sisters
  • Mono-Green Stompy
  • Skred Red
  • Blue Moon
  • 8 Rack
  • Nykthos Green

Modern has changed significantly since January 2015, but many of the big decks listed above still exist in some iteration. Because it hoses so many decks, I consider Blood Moon the format's strongest disruption spell, besting both targeted discard and countermagic. The former is cheap and does something against every deck, but loses relevance in the late-game and fails to answer topdecks. The latter spends an opponent’s mana as well as his card, but must be used in a very specific window: while that card is on the stack. Blood Moon comes down early enough in this deck to make a lasting impact on the game, and its disruption translates to every card in an opponent’s deck while hardly touching our own. Against decks with very few basic lands, even a turn 10 Blood Moon can steal the game. In games two and three, Stone Rain effects eliminate the basics opponents now know to fetch out early.

Dissecting the TURBOGOYF Core

Every deck changes during development, but each version of TURBOGOYF shares a highly synergistic core of components that enable its strategy.

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TURBOGOYF Core (26)

Acceleration

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Utopia Sprawl

Disruption

4 Blood Moon
2 Magus of the Moon

Threats

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Huntmaster of the Fells

Utility

4 Faithless Looting

Blood Moon is at its best when cast before opponents fetch their basics, so it needs to hit the battlefield either before they expect it, or before they have time to react. We need to build around these conditions to maximize their odds of occurring.

  • We should play lots of Moons. Magus of the Moon is worse than the enchantment, since opponents can Bolt him (and they’ll have no shortage of Red mana), but he does apply pressure on his own.
  • We should max out on dorks. Eight mana birds, a set of each of our finest options, help ensure the Moons we draw come down on turn two for maximum impact. Birds of Paradise helps cast off-color spells or color-hungry ones like Molten Rain and Thrun, the Last Troll. Utopia Sprawl makes the color we need it to depending on openers and can’t be Bolted, making for extra-reliable ramp.

Faithless LootingOf course, running eight Birds and 6-8 Moons means a lot of dead draws and redundant pieces. We need a way to turn these superfluous pieces into actual business. Faithless Looting does just that. It also has the benefit of cycling extra lands - since the deck curves out at four mana, cards that provide mana in excess of four filter into additional threats or disruption.

Once Blood Moon resolves, its controller must back it up with beats to seal the game before his opponent draws out of the lock. Tarmogoyf and Huntmaster of the Fells are our strongest aggressive options, proving both resilient and threatening beyond anything else at their respective mana costs.

Tarmogoyf survives Bolts and comes down blisteringly fast at just 2 mana. He quickly grows to 5/6 in this deck, allowing him to trump every relevant body in the format this side of Primeval Titan. If opponents do succeed in Bolting our Birds, Tarmogoyf makes for the best walking funeral procession we could ever ask for.

Huntmaster of the FellsBirds and Magus already take some heat off Huntmaster of the Fells by competing for Bolts, and the Human Werewolf provides an ungodly amount of board presence if untouched. He curves us out perfectly - 4 mana lets us cast Birds into Moon into Huntmaster. Flipping him over multiple times provides card advantage without costing cards, and doing so proves laughably easy with so many mana birds and Looting. Against a locked-down opponent, he deals 8 damage the turn after we cast him, 6 the turn after, and 10 the next, rivaling even Geist of Saint Traft in terms of pure damage-for-cost. And while Goyf survives Bolt and even Roast, Huntmaster gets around Edict effects, most importantly Liliana of the Veil's.

Huntmaster and Goyf also happen to destroy decks unfazed by Blood Moon (Mono Green Stompy, UR Delver). These are primarily one- or two-color aggro and midrange decks of the budget variety.

TURBOGOYF 1.0: The Best Goyf

This first draft of TURBOGOYF was built on the premise that an 8/9 Tarmogoyf ends games faster than anything else.

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TURBOGOYF 1.0, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Huntmaster of the Fells

Sorceries

2 Faithless Looting
2 Molten Rain

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Tarfire

Other

4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Blood Moon
3 Chandra, Pyromaster

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Stomping Ground
7 Forest
1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Rending Volley
2 Destructive Revelry 
2 Molten Rain
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Sword of Light and Shadow
2 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Engineered Explosives

I started with 3 Huntmaster of the Fells and diversified my threats with Chandra, Pyromaster, who took a lot of heat off the pilot by demanding answers against aggro decks while drawing cards against Control decks (pumping Tarmogoyf from the Graveyard to boot).Tarfire I liked that she provided a soft-lock against decks like Affinity and Infect, eating away at their creatures and giving me ample time to overwhelm the board with pressure.

Growing the perfect Goyf requires us to run a diversified answer suite, explaining Tarfire and Pyrite Spellbomb. Tarfire can "counter" Lightning Bolts aimed at an innocuous Goyf by surprise-growing him at instant speed, while Spellbomb deals with annoying permanents like Kor Firewalker, Master of Waves, and Etched Champion or cycles against decks immune to removal. Since no Modern decks play tribal cards (outside of the odd Bitterblossom), Tarfire always gives our Lhurgoyfs an extra boost. Unlike Ryuuta, I didn't want to give up the versatility of Lightning Bolt, so I maxed out there first and omitted Seal of Fire entirely.

Molten Rain Package

This build ran two Rains in the main, and two in the side. Now, all four land destruction spells reside in the sideboard. Blood Moon catches opponents off guard enough in game one that we don't need Molten Rain in the mainboard. They come in for game two almost universally, as opponents know by then to fetch their basic lands. Our Moons still come down on the second turn, meaning Rain can hit whatever basic land opponents have searched up to lock them out. Since it mostly hits basic lands, and because of its double red cost, Molten Rain eventually becomes Stone Rain in these decks. But color-light versions of TURBOGOYF like this one prefer Molten Rain for its ability to Shock a planeswalker.

Testing Takeaways

The fourth Huntmaster is better than the third Chandra. Sword of Light and Shadow is better in the main than in the side, where the entire set of Molten Rain belongs. Simian Spirit Guide is the worst card in the deck; I often boarded him out for "real things" in games two and three, and would frequently cast him to pressure a Control opponent or to bait a counterspell, in which case a "real thing" would have performed better anyway.

This was just my first stab at the deck, which changed greatly over the following few months. Next week, we'll take a look at the deck's continued evolution, including implementations of Stone Rain, Siege Rhino, and Chalice of the Void.

Read the second part of this series here.

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

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Posted in Brewing, ModernTagged , , , , 11 Comments on Many Moons, Part I: Growing the Best Tarmogoyf

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Insider: Last-Minute Specs for Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello Insiders, and welcome back.

I wrote last week about re-evaluating my October rotation specs. By now you should've been making executive decisions about your own stock as well. These final days before the Pro Tour are crucial. They are the best time to purchase, to avoid the hassle of ordering during the event and the risk of canceled orders.

Luckily Kelly Reid will be at the PT and if we miss something glaring we'll have his on-the-floor reporting. So thanks, Kelly!

During the latest QS Cast I suggested favoring Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins singles over Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged when given the choice. That still holds true, but I want to clarify there should be a clear focus on Khans block as a whole.

While a large supply of these cards (KTK in particular) is available, players still need them to compete. The consensus on Battle for Zendikar is that it's lower-powered than Khans block, and one set can't give us as many tools as an entire three-set block anyway. The cards from last year are deciding games right now.

This is not unexpected, and hopefully you kept it in mind while building your rotation portfolio.

Last week I pointed out cards like Warden of the First Tree seeing a lot of play, and while this particular card was reprinted via the Event Deck, others weren't. These sets aren’t being opened or redeemed as much as before, which is starting to reflect in percentage gains found on Trader Tools every day. The data is right there in front of us.

Now, to discuss some last-ditch spec targets before heading into this weekend. These cards have already started to gather steam, but some are still a good purchase now.

Anafenza, the Foremost

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

This card is moving. It’s becoming harder to find, and the prices are being updated quickly.

Abzan Aggro has shown up quite a bit over the past two weeks in the States, and digging up recent decklists from Hareruya reveals it's fairly popular in Japan as well. Up +18% this past week, Anafenza has a good chance of reaching its original pre-sale price (right around the $12 range).

Usually played as a four-of and with applications in Modern, Anafenza has long justified a higher price. The jump may be short-lived, but a healthy number of Abzan Aggro players are going to need these. In spite of the large supply, this has always been one of the premiere Constructed-viable cards in Khans of Tarkir. It’s finally starting to act like it.

If you can grab these at or near buylist, I think there will be an opportunity to turn them around for healthy gains. As of writing, buylist is $5.40 and retail is $7.50(ish), giving us a decent 31% spread.

Anafenza, the Foremost up +18% last week

DTK Commands

The ship may have sailed on these, but the commands from DTK (with the exception of Silumgar's Command) are taking center stage. They are all extremely potent, and will continue to see applications in both Standard (until they rotate) and Modern. Sooner or later their price will reflect their power level.

Dromoka's Command, for its part, is already rebounding from a Clash Pack reprint and is likely to surpass its previous high.

I would prioritize Ojutai's Command and Dromoka's Command for Standard, with Kolaghan's Command being next for its role in Modern. For now I'm leaving Atarka's Command alone since it’s a tad inflated, but it won’t be getting that much cheaper.

Dromoka's Command up +61% this past week
Ojutai's Command up +21% this past week

Former Penny Stocks

By now I’m sure you've noticed how many Jeskai Black decks are running around from last week's SCG Open. Four of the Top 8 decks were Jeskai Black, and 27 lists made Day 2. The deck appeals to an increasing number of players, and its finishes have finally sparked Mantis Rider again.

Butcher of the Horde is interesting, and as of writing this article has a 6% spread. It's been played a bit more over in Japan, and has seen recent success in the new Standard. With such a narrow spread, I think it’s fine to grab a few copies and ship them back out should they fail to show up at the Pro Tour.

The same can be said for Crackling Doom. Myriad decks are now splashing for this card, and I don’t think that will change any time soon.

Butcher of the Horde up +6% last week
Crackling Doom up +102% last week
Mantis Rider up +64% last week

Cards for the Bold

Dragonlord Dromoka

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Dromoka

This is certainly not a penny stock--in fact it's more expensive than all of the cards mentioned above. We discussed this card on QS Cast, and it’s extremely well positioned right now.

In a format dominated by air combat, Dromoka is an excellent defensive tool. It’s also extremely good at stabilizing against aggressive strategies. This card has been moving slowly, but moving nonetheless.

If any dragonlord ends up rivaling Dragonlord Ojutai I think it will be Dromoka. It probably won't quite reach Ojutai's price, but a bump may be coming soon, especially if it's seen on camera at the PT.

Again, I would temper expectations, and the upfront capital investment here is vastly higher than any other card I mentioned. But this one is on my radar now.

Dragonlord Dromoka up +13% last week

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

I know you’ll probably roll your eyes at this. I understand, but Aether Games's buylist has been bumped up to a commanding $30 heading into the weekend.

Since Battle for Zendikar’s debut, this has been the only card from the set worth discussing. Aside from the tango lands, Gideon is far and away the most impactful card in the set. With 65 copies in the Top 64 lists at SCG Atlanta, it has lived up to every bit of hype surrounding it during spoiler season.

If this trend continues, Gideon will easily suck up most of the value in the set and push a price somewhere close to double what it is now. With stores offering that much, I would have to think they are on a similar line of thinking. The EV of the set would certainly allow it, as every card continues to trend downward across the board.

Again, this spec is for the bold. Or should I say, the boldest.

~

Well, that about wraps it up for this week. There’s not much time to lock in purchases, as these cards continue to rise and buylists fluctuate as a result. So, whichever action you decide on (even if it’s inaction), I would act now rather than later.

If you’re not one to predict trends, that’s fine. Like I said, Kelly will be on the floor reporting to us, so there will still be opportunities.

Just remember the additional risk of last-minute purchases from vendors: stock can diminish quickly and orders can get canceled. You also have to factor in shipping time and turnaround. Historically we see prices rise and crash quickly, so plan accordingly.

Until next time, everyone! Make sure to tune into the QS Cast before the PT--we discussed a lot of the topics in this article and more.

As always, feel free to comment below or follow me on Twitter @ChazVMTG.

Insider: Prepping for Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar

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By the time you read this, Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar will have already started or be starting soon. As such, your speculative buys are probably locked in.

Most of us have our stacks of Mantis Riders and Crackling Dooms in addition to our own particular ponies. I personally see Crux of Fate and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon poised to make big moves in the Jeskai Black-G/W Megamorph metagame, and soon we'll see how these picks pan out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Hopefully you jumped on Dragonlord Ojutai the first time we mentioned the card, or came to invest in it for a different reason back when it was $10-12. That certainly didn't last, and we can expect early performers like Ojutai to have the most significant gains this time too.

This is the trend we've seen since SCG Opens started highlighting the new format right before the Pro Tour (PT). A lot of cards see significant spikes leading up to the PT. A few select cards see additional PT spikes, and the pros pick up on some cards the community at large missed.

Camera time at the PT can lead to knee-jerk price spikes, though the best returns come from Top 8 decks. Abbot of Keral Keep and Exquisite Firecraft were the big winners from Pro Tour Origins, and they're still higher than their pre-PT price today.

Battle for Zendikar vs. Khans

That said, PT Battle is going to more closely mirror PT Khans, as both are first sets in their block and both will be opened like crazy to farm rare lands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

After PT Khans, a couple cards on nobody's radar saw nice gains, such as Pearl Lake Ancient which went from about a buck to $3.50. On the other hand, several known quantities saw spikes as well, such as Siege Rhino and Dig Through Time.

The two cards I see as sure shots to top-eight the Pro Tour are Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Investing in Jace at $65-$70 sounds kind of crazy to me, but if Jace wins the Pro Tour he definitely isn't at his ceiling. Nobody is cracking Origins anymore, and Jace has already been bought off the internet twice.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

The price trajectory of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is a bit harder to predict. Gideon tends to show up as a four-of in lists playing him, which explains his $30 price tag. The closest comparison we have to Gideon is Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, who saw early play in Khans Standard and placed five copies in the Top 8 at PT Khans.

There are two big differences between the cards. First, as stated, Gideon is a four-of kind of card. Second, while Sarkhan dropped off in popularity after the PT, Gideon is likely to be a long-time format staple.

Sarkhan was around $35 after PT Khans. But if two Gideon decks top-eight PT Battle, it will likely mean three more copies in the Top 8 than Sarkhans in PT Khans (one deck ran 2, and another ran 3.)

I predict we see growth in Gideon after the PT, and $40 could be his short-term price tag. Or even higher, if more than two Gideon decks top-eight.

From Bulk to Hit

Obvious power and reasonable predictions aside, there will likely be some surprises in the PT Battle Top 8. It's a weird set, and most people on the Pro Tour are there for a reason. I could see a handful of cheaper cards making a breakout performance this weekend:

I'm not advocating you act on these cards right now. I would stay away until it becomes clear one is slated for a Top 8 berth, which is about the time availability and prices start shifting online. I'd rather pay a quarter more per copy for a card likely to hit, than speculate hard on something at fifty cents, only to see the value dwindle to a dime.

Using this strategy, you'll get more mileage with access to more local game stores. If you can make it out to stores on Saturday and Sunday as prices are changing, you'll probably lock in lower prices, specifically on the low-end cards.

As an aside, you might run into a store owner that accuses you of being scum for buying out a card at pre-spike prices. Here's why they're the asshole: It's their responsibility to price each item in their retail space such that they're happy moving it. To ask for more than the price sticker is gouging.

Even if they would have risen the price later, there was no guarantee of that happening--and in any case they're not losing money. If they're selling it for a dollar, they bought it for a dime. If you as a consumer find something below market price, you'd be something of a good Samaritan to raise the point to the business, but you are under no legal nor moral obligation to do so.

When a business buys something for a dime and it spikes to $10 retail, that's not money that they're entitled to in any way. It's just gravy--and I say this as a vendor and an aspiring store owner.

As far as acting on any of these cards, remember that the Pro Tour metagame doesn't always carry forward. Most PT spikes should be treated as quick flips. Know your exit strategy, and have access to a fast one.

~

The Pro Tour is an exciting time for Magic, both as a game and financially. I personally haven't played any new Standard, and all I've really figured out is the mana--so I'm intrigued to see what new strategies come out of the PT.

I'm taking a low-risk approach to this set, which may yield lower returns than risky plays, but it's the one I'm comfortable with at the moment. If you decided to take a riskier approach, I wish you the best of luck.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

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