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Top 250 Winners/Losers of 2014

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A few weeks ago, while browsing around on Twitter and later the interests page of MTGStocks.com (which shows the rising and falling cards financially), I thought about how cool it would be to get a summary of the same thing for the entire year.

I reached out to the site, and they responded better than I could have hoped.

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The second-highest riser of 2014. What could top a 1000% gain?

Their list included not just the hundred or so I expected, but a full 250 of the biggest winners and losers of the year. Check it out here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 12/28/14

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Welcome back, fellow speculators! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas holiday and (by the time you read this) a happy New Year!

Now that we're done with the pleasantries let's get right back down to business.

Penny Stocks

#1 Cyclonic Rift (Commander 2014) (+46.8%) - This one isn't really a huge surprise. While the normal rule of thumb is that original printings hold more value, the fact that this is such a recent printing means there wasn't really any justification for why the Commander version (which is likely more rare) was half the price of the original RTR version. This is likely a simple market adjustment as they are both now sitting on par with each other.

cyclonic rift 1

cyclonic rift 2

#2 Doomwake Giant (+25.4%) - This card has been tearing up MODO and sits at a whopping 8.47 tickets, whereas its paper counterpart was still under $2. I expect we'll see a continued rise of the paper version (though I don't think $8.5 is likely) as Journey into Nyx wasn't drafted a ton so the rares are far more rare than the first set rares in Theros.

Doomwake Giant

#3 Thran Dynamo (Commander 2014) (+25.5%) - This one isn't too surprising. The other three versions (Urza's Destiny, Archenemy, and FTV:20) are all above $5 on average and when it comes to casual cards that can go in almost any commander deck, players are happy to play with whatever copy they can find cheapest.

The fact that this one was sitting at under $3 before the jump is quite surprising, especially since it was only reprinted in the blue commander deck which from what I've seen on store shelves was the 4th most popular (only in front of black).

thran dynamo

#4 Grave Titan (Commander 2014) (+18.8%) - This one is similar to Cyclonic Rift. The Commander version was simply far below the other versions (both of which are sitting above $5). Grave Titan did make it on camera in the SCG Legacy Open in Atlanta in the maindeck of Jesse Inman's Reanimator deck as a solid threat the deck can actually cast. It also helps that the black Commander deck is clearly the least desirable (judging by multiple store shelves) so fewer are entering circulation than one might expect.

Grave Titan

#5 Ghoulcaller Gisa (Commander 2014) (+16.5%) - This one is a bit more surprising when you first look at it. She's a cool, flavorful commander but not so broken that she really stands out. This is her first and only printing so far so if you want a copy you either have to buy the black Commander deck (which as I've mentioned several times isn't that popular) or buy/trade for her. It seems that more people are taking the second route so demand for the single has gone up a bit this past week.

ghoulcaller gisa

Blue Chip Stocks

#1 Force of Will (+6.97%) - Wow, Force has shot up recently. It's had already jumped to $90 previously and now it's approaching $100 (currently sitting at $96.74 on the mid). With Treasure Cruise in the current Legacy format being so dominant it's not surprising to see that the glue that holds the format together and shares a color is in high demand. The fact that Cruise can mitigate the true cost of casting FoW (an additional card out of your hand) makes it more playable than ever and this demand reflects that.

force of will

#2 Taiga (-3.02%) - Poor, poor Taiga, it continues to fall. Zoo just can't find a home in Legacy at the moment and the other deck that used to run a copy or two (Goblins) seems to have also fallen by the wayside courtesy of Deathrite Shaman and then True-Name Nemesis. The only decks that still run Taiga are Jund, Charbelcher, and Lands...none of which have put up any major showings recently.

taiga

#3 Show and Tell (-2.89%) - This one isn't too surprising either. Show and Tell decks have just not been doing well in the current metagame. It's difficult to cast a three- or four-mana spell in a format riddled with Spell Pierces, Force of Wills, Dazes, and even the occasional Izzet Charm. I have seen some Show and Tell players adopting Boseiju as a way to help jam the Show and Tell, but the fact that Boseiju doesn't make Sneak Attack uncounterable means it's really only there for the Show and Tell.

show and tell

#4 Underground Sea (-2.44%) - With the massive popularity of U/R Delver decks and the fact that Treasure Cruise makes targeted discard spells pretty bad the need for playing black in Legacy is quickly diminishing. Unless we see Cruise banned, I think the Stoneblade decks are going to give up black in favor of red permanently as targeted discard is worse than countering an opposing counterspell or Treasure Cruise for 1 red. Lightning Bolt is also still one of the most efficient removal/burn spells we have.

underground sea

#5 Bayou (+1.60%) - I'm honestly a bit perplexed on this one. We've seen black overall greatly diminished in power level with the advent of the U/R Delver decks and UWR Stoneblade decks currently occupying a lot of the metagame. Bayou's original spike occurred when Deathrite was printed and the Elves decks decided that trying to find answers to their problems in mono-green wasn't worth the hassle anymore. But even the once-mighty Elves decks have been having a hard time defeating decks that maindeck Forked Bolt.

I also must admit that all the minor fluctuations (1-2% changes) could very well be attributed to the variance that occurs with prices when only a few sell.

Bayou

Value Stocks

I thought that the Khans fetchlands would be near their low points, up until WoTC announced they would be including them as options in the land slot in Fate Reforged packs. While similar to the shocks in Dragon's Maze, it's important to note that with DGM you would on average get 2-3 per box, but you had all 10 shocks as options. With Fate Reforged you'll likely see the same odds, but with only 5 fetches as options we'll see twice as many added to the supply as DGM. It may be even more, as Fate Reforged is the second set and will be drafted longer than DGM ever was (it also already seems to have more awesome cards than DGM and a good portion isn't even spoiled yet.)

That being said, I think your value stock picks are really limited. I've had some do well this year (bought Mana Confluences at $8 and saw them jump to $17 before backsliding to their current $12 price) and also had some unfortunate picks stagnate (almost all of my temples have flat-lined and shown little to no growth).

Growth Stocks

This week we see some decent size drops in both Avacyn Restored and in Zendikar product. With the announcement that MM2 will cover all sets up to Innistrad block there could be some concern for the Zendikar fetches being reprinted which would drive the demand for Zendikar product downward.

We also see minor dips in almost everything which could also be tied to the MM2 announcement. With only two positive trends (and both being so minor that it could easily be attributed to variance as a whole), I am feeling a bit less confident in sealed product as an investment. It's also interesting to note that zero new Worldwake boxes entered the eBay marketplace in the past two weeks. This could imply that supply is really drying up and that the price will trend upward for what little sealed product remains.

Week of 12/27/14

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $190.80 $208.00 $214.99 $199.00 $203.20 -0.93%
Dark Ascension $108.00 $108.00 $93.00 $117.00 $106.50 1.07%
Avacyn Restored $142.00 $121.50 $125.00 $134.95 $130.86 -3.13%
Scars of Mirrodin $174.95 $199.00 $168.00 $167.00 $177.24 0.92%
Mirrodin Besieged $134.18 $148.95 $188.00 $159.99 $157.78 -1.47%
New Phyrexia $359.89 $342.99 $340.55 $344.99 $347.11 -0.46%
Zendikar $499.95 $539.99 $455.00 $485.00 $494.99 -3.79%
Worldwake $698.99 $698.99 $715.00 $700.00 $703.25 0.00%
Rise of the Eldrazi $509.99 $518.02 $530.09 $584.99 $535.77 -1.12%

I've been keeping the data from each of these articles on a separate spreadsheet. Below I've plotted the prices over time (as well as dates of all the sealed product listed here).

sealed product graph

Crucible of the Spirit Dragon

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Crucible of the Spirit Dragon

This isn't as bad as you think it is. That said, it's still not good. Dragon EDH players may want foils of this, but this would be a pretty slow and durdly land even if you could use the mana for anything you wanted instead of just dragons. Dragon EDH players have already expressed interest because ticking this up a few times costs nothing but some spare mana and can set them up to have a lot of extra mana when they want to do something big, but I'm not a huge fan and most people aren't, either. Hollow Trees isn't exactly an EDH staple, after all. I'm with everyone who is disappointed by this card.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Torrent Elemental

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Torrent Elemental

4U
Creature - Elemental
Flying

Whenever Torrent Elemental attacks, tap all creatures defending player controls.

3[B/G][B/G]: Return Torrent Elemental from exile to the battlefield tapped. Activate this ability only any time you could cast a sorcery.

I don't know if I want this at mythic. This is just a narrower Misthollow Griffin and while this has two more toughness, I don't know if that matters. Can we do anything with this ability in Standard? Do we use Misthollow in EDH? Who wants this card?

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Daghatar the Adamant

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Daghatar the Adamant

Every cycle has to have a "worst card" in it, and I think we found the worst one in the non-mythic cycle.

If this is your commander, I guess you can deplete all of the counters and rebuy him out of the command zo... come on, that's terrible. This guy is terrible. It's cool that he has a Giant Fan ability, but he's not in the colors that want to do that. Simic likes creatures that do this, but EDH isn't set up to benefit from this ability, and a 4/4 for 4 that moves counters for 3 mana may not be good enough to get there. He doesn't create a counter, after all, he merely moves them, usually requiring that you shrink him to do it. I'm bearish as all hell. Abzan is one of the best decks in Standard, but that's because we have Theros block cards and Siege Rhino, not because we have time for slow, durdly counter shenanigans. Ain't nobody got time for Daghatar the Adamant.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Monastery Siege

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Monastery Siege

This seems so... fair. The green one gives Omnath, Locus of Mana players boners that last for longer than 48 hours. The red one makes Prossh, Skyraider of Kher players visions of murdering people with Goblin Bombardment. This seems... really fair.

Fair isn't bad, necessarily. I think this is good enough to likely be worth the same price as the other Sieges, +/- $1. Frost armor for every permanent can get there, or at least make their life inconvenient. Looting on your draw step is fine. All in all, I am pretty excited about this cycle, although this one seems like the one least likely to have either mode playable in Limited.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest

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Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest

People tend to overvalue the cards they spoil. Why do I bring this up?

I spoiled this card

I think this is likely to be a good EDH general, and the EDH subreddit backs me up. I have also brewed a bit in Modern, coming up with Magic Christmasland scenarios where you can kill them with Noble Hierarch and Mutagenic Growth. I don't think that's going to happen much.

I really like this card. I have thought of every best case scenario for this card. I have been brewing with it for 2 weeks because I got to see it early. No one is likely to be more hyped about this card than I am.

That said, this is a $12 playset on eBay and when I saw that, I said "I dunno....three dollars?" So there you have it. The guy who loves this card more than anyone on earth balked at $3.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Monastery Mentor

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Monastery Mentor

HYYYYYPE.

Look, we made a better Young Pyromancer. Think it will see play?

This is a $100 playset on eBay right now. That may hold. Could it go up from there? I hope not! I think there is enough in the set that makes packs worth buying that we're not seeing another Voice of Resurgence. I think this card is as good as it looks, and it may take so long for it to go below $25 that it may not even end up being worth it to wait. This card seems like the real deal and has people brewing like mad. Whether or not they end up being right about how good it is doesn't really matter - it's too expensive to preorder in all likelihood unless you want it to play with.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Shaman of the Great Hunt

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Shaman of the Great Hunt

Not bad, not bad at all. This confirms that we're getting two cycles of creatures with khan-colored activations, one at mythic and one at rare. Jamming this with a board full of goblin tokens that grow with each hit is solid. This trading with Courser of Kruphix isn't ideal and wasting a turn burning a 2-power blocker out of the way isn't that great. Still, this can go nuts and having a 4/2 Treasure Trove in Gruul colors could be useful. All in all, I think this is a bit of a win-more and its 2 toughness is likely too much of a liability to see play in Standard, at least until Courser rotates.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Fate Reforged Spoiler – 1/1/15

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Sorcerer of the Hunt

Creature - Orc Shaman
Haste

Whenever a creature you control deals combat damage to a player, put a +1/+1 counter on it.

Ferocious - 2[G/U][G/U]: Draw a card for each creature with power 4 or greater you control.

Not bad, not bad at all. This confirms that we're getting two cycles of creatures with khan-colored activations, one at mythic and one at rare. Jamming this with a board full of goblin tokens that grow with each hit is solid. This trading with Courser of Kruphix isn't ideal and wasting a turn burning a 2-power blocker out of the way isn't that great. Still, this can go nuts and having a 4/2 Treasure Trove in Gruul colors could be useful. All in all, I think this is a bit of a win-more and its 2 toughness is likely too much of a liability to see play in Standard, at least until Courser rotates.

Monastery Mentor

HYYYYYPE.

Look, we made a better Young Pyromancer. Think it will see play?

This is a $100 playset on eBay right now. That may hold. Could it go up from there? I hope not! I think there is enough in the set that makes packs worth buying that we're not seeing another Voice of Resurgence. I think this card is as good as it looks, and it may take so long for it to go below $25 that it may not even end up being worth it to wait. This card seems like the real deal and has people brewing like mad. Whether or not they end up being right about how good it is doesn't really matter - it's too expensive to preorder in all likelihood unless you want it to play with.

Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest

People tend to overvalue the cards they spoil. Why do I bring this up?

I spoiled this card

I think this is likely to be a good EDH general, and the EDH subreddit backs me up. I have also brewed a bit in Modern, coming up with Magic Christmasland scenarios where you can kill them with Noble Hierarch and Mutagenic Growth in Modern. I don't think that's going to happen much.

I really like this card. I have thought of every best case scenario for this card. I have been brewing with it for 2 weeks because I got to see it early. No one is likely to be more hyped about this card than I am.

That said, this is a $12 playset on eBay and when I saw that, I said "I dunno....three dollars?" So there you have it. The guy who loves this card more than anyone on earth balked at $3.

Monastery Siege

This seems so... fair. The green one gives Omnath, Locus of Mana players boners that last for longer than 48 hours. The red one makes Prossh, Skyraider of Kher players visions of murdering people with Goblin Bombardment. This seems... really fair.

Fair isn't bad, necessarily. I think this is good enough to likely be worth the same price as the other Sieges, +/- $1. Frost armor for every permanent can get there, or at least make their life inconvenient. Looting on your draw step is fine. All in all, I am pretty excited about this cycle, although this one seems like the one least likely to have either mode playable in Limited.

Daghatar the Adamant

Every cycle has to have a "worst card" in it, and I think we found the worst one in the non-mythic cycle.

If this is your commander, I guess you can deplete all of the counters and rebuy him out of the command zo... come on, that's terrible. This guy is terrible. It's cool that he has a Giant Fan ability, but he's not in the colors that want to do that. Simic likes creatures that do this, but EDH isn't set up to benefit from this ability, and a 4/4 for 4 that moves counters for 3 mana may not be good enough to get there. He doesn't create a counter, after all, he merely moves them, usually requiring that you shrink him to do it. I'm bearish as all hell. Abzan is one of the best decks in Standard, but that's because we have Theros block cards and Siege Rhino, not because we have time for slow, durdly counter shenanigans. Ain't nobody got time for Daghatar the Adamant.

Torrent Elemental

4U
Creature - Elemental
Flying

Whenever Torrent Elemental attacks, tap all creatures defending player controls.

3[B/G][B/G]: Return Torrent Elemental from exile to the battlefield tapped. Activate this ability only any time you could cast a sorcery.

Infinite mana with Food Chain, I guess. Maybe Food Chain will spike to $50.

Just kidding, you don't cast it from exile so you can't use Food Chain Mana, so the card is worse than I initially thought.

I don't know if I want this at mythic. This is just a narrower Misthollow Griffin and while this has two more toughness, I don't know if it's better. Can we do anything with this ability in Standard? Do we use Misthollow in EDH? Who wants this card?

Crucible of the Spirit Dragon

This isn't as bad as you think it is. That said, it's still not good. Dragon EDH players may want foils of this, but this would be a pretty slow and durdly land even if you could use the mana for anything you wanted instead of just dragons. Dragon EDH players have already expressed interest because ticking this up a few times costs nothing and can set them up to have a lot of extra mana when they want to do something big, but I'm not a huge fan and most people aren't, either. Hollow Trees isn't exactly an EDH staple, after all. I'm with everyone who is disappointed by this card.

Insider: Looking Back on 2014 and Ahead to 2015

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As always, it’s been an exciting year in Magic finance. Both the predictable and the unpredictable happened (fetchlands in Standard?!?).

In other words, it was a normal year, right? And as we’re entering 2015 (Happy New Year’s, by the way!), I thought I would look back at my predictions for 2014 and make a few for 2015.

What I’m Proud Of

This is a little personal, but I think it’s important to always recognize your goals. And it’s not always about looking forward. Sometimes it’s appropriate to look back at what you’ve done well and recognize what got you there.

-       The biggest development of 2014 for me is realizing what was truly a dream: officially becoming a part of the Wizards of the Coast coverage team. In 2014 I went from volunteering at a Grand Prix to covering a Pro Tour in Hawaii and Worlds Week in France. Truly a dream come true.

-       Spec calls. I think I did okay in 2013, but 2014 was much better to me. I’m not going to list everything I did well on and humble brag here, but I’m happy with how I performed as an analyst this year.

-       Expanding my store. What started in the summer of 2013 as me selling a few cards in a case at the LGS has turned into a substantial part of my life. I have a lot of cards come in and out of the store I work out of, and I’ve become very comfortable with the responsibilities of running the case. I’m also proud of the fact I’ve become a de facto employee of the store and run events there, making it the best place I can for our players.

-       Getting back to free writing. As much as I love this column (and I do, very much), I also missed writing to a free audience after my stint at LegitMTG ended. I’ve been fortunate enough to write this year for www.Empeopled.com, and I’ve enjoyed it. It’s not about the in-depth analysis I try to get into here, it’s about connecting with those readers who are just getting into Magic and have no idea that Quiet Speculation is a Magic card, much less a financial website.

-       Growing the podcast and BrainstormBrewery.com. 2014 was an exciting year for us on the podcast. Our listenership continues to grow, as does the site, and it feels great to be able to afford to commission custom art for tokens and then give out tokens to fans when we meet. That, and the “Finance 101” segment we implemented after pushing past Episode 100, has really helped us connect with those newbies to Magic, and that’s great.

-       Cashing in my Fantasy Football league for the first time 🙂

What I’m Not Proud Of

-       The predictions I made for 2014 (as you’ll soon see).

-       Ignoring Standard a little too much. Obviously Modern is more interesting and my favorite format, so I focus on that more. Modern hasn’t seen the growth I expected in 2014 (though some individual cards certainly have). I expect 2015 to be very good for the non-reprints in Modern, but honestly there was more money to be made in Standard than I gave it credit for. I did well with my rotation picks, but I need to pay more attention to the week-to-week metagame in 2015.

-       Impersonal writing. Sometimes I look at my backlog and I see articles I’m really proud of, usually because they combine Magic finance with lessons I learned in my life, or significant moments in it. To me, this is the epitome of Magic finance writing; when it’s about more than just the numbers. Maybe I’m out of inspiring stories or cool ideas, but I suspect it may be more a product of simply leading a very busy life. Between my “day job” as a sportswriter, writing weekly columns for two websites, doing a weekly podcast, traveling for WOTC events, running my own Magic store and trying to lead a real life beyond that, I never sit down with a full night ahead of me to write. Most articles (like this one) are done at 2 or 3 a.m. in the morning. And while I consider every article well-researched (after all, I’m plugged into the market 24/7), it certainly is harder to write something personally meaningful when you’re on a clock. I want to change this in 2015.

-       Being very slow at home improvement. Seriously, everything you think you will do in a few weeks takes a few months, and sometimes it becomes even longer. Case in point: an outside building at the house my wife and I moved into 22 months ago. We thought it would take a few months to convert it into a gameroom. We’re finally nearing that point, but it’s taken this long and some friends needing a place to stay for a few months for us to finally finish the work done. With any luck (or just work), I’ll finally have my dream game room by the end of the month. I’m aware this isn’t Magic-related, but it’s something worth knowing anyway.

So About Those Predictions…

I warned you they were bad, and I put them off long enough. I made five. The first three (It’s a Different Market, Fundamentals Still Matter and Everyone Thinks They’re a Financier) went well enough, but the second two did not.

Here goes:

Modern will Explode

[blockquote]“So since the last Modern season ended, we’ve had a pretty long layover. But in that time Modern Masters hit the scene and was hugely popular, and the game as a whole has grown.

These two factors, along with a vastly increased supply of shocklands, will all combine to make Modern a much more affordable format. It doesn’t hurt that it’s shaken out to be a little more than just Jund Jund Jund.

More players playing Modern means that some of those long-term specs we’ve had like Birthing Pod and Scars of Mirrodin fastlands will likely take off. It’s really a convergence of all the factors Wizards has put in place, and I think it will result in a relative explosion for Modern at more than just the GP level.

I also think Legacy will continue its malaise. Basically every big spec these days is related to Modern, and Legacy has taken a back seat to that. The format isn’t dying, as the continuing increase on Wasteland shows, but the growth it will experience will pale in comparison to Modern. Plan your activity accordingly.”[/blockquote]

 

Yeah, that didn’t quite work out.

 

And this one:

Fetchlands Won’t be Reprinted

[blockquote]“My reasoning is this. Wizards has put the following things on record:

  • They don’t love fetches in Standard because of the amount of shuffling they create.
  • They design sets one year in advance.
  • They wanted to determine how successful Modern Masters was before going forward with anything else similar.
  • They want to actively reprint Modern cards.

Which means that we’ll likely see Zendikar fetchlands in a non-Standard set. It also means that any sort of Modern Masters 2 wouldn’t have been decided on until after GP Vegas (which I Top 32’ed, yay!). That means they wouldn’t have even decided to put Modern Masters 2 on the calendar until last fall, at which point the Summer 2014 set would have already been decided on.

The earliest they could slate it for would be Summer 2015, so I suspect that’s when we’ll see fetchlands reprinted. In the meantime, expect them to continue to climb higher.”[blockquote]

 

Oh…

My logic may have been sound, but I got rekt anyway on that one. At least I did see the reprint writing on the wall last summer and put out a call to sell Onslaught fetches before the reprint news hit.

Predictions for Next Year

Anyway, on to 2015:

Modern Really Will Explode

I truly thought fetchlands would drive huge interest in the format, and with it prices. They’ve certainly played a part, but it’s been slower than I expected. Between the usual year-beginning growth we see and Modern Masters 2 next summer, I’m confident everything not reprinted will see positive gains.

Tarmogoyf will be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015

There’s just no way they let it stay at $200, right? The only question is if they decide it needs a larger print run than Moderns Masters 2015 can give it.

New Rotation will make Standard matter even more

Between the new PTQ system (PPTQs, that is) and the new 18-month rotation schedule, and the change of almost all Pro Tours to be Standard-focused, we’re going to see more and more movement in Standard. That means both price volatility and shorter financial life spans, but also more opportunity because of this.

Treasure Cruise will be banned in Modern

It’s just busted, guys. Only question is if Dig goes with it.

Magic’s overall business will grow, but more slowly

One of my favorite article series I started doing in 2014 was analyzing Hasbro’s earnings reports every quarter, as well as the Q&A that comes with the conference call. This continues to provide insight into how Magic is doing on the large scale.

There’s been so much growth in the past five years that sooner or later it has to stop growing so quickly. With a US economy that’s beginning to really chug along we can expect more disposable income and more Magic cards bought, but what I’ll be really interested to see is any numbers regarding player growth, rather than just revenue growth. Based on a few factors from 2014 and overall trends like Duels of the Planeswalkers reaching a saturation point, I expect it to slow down. I don’t expect this to significantly change our financial outlook in Magic, but it’s something to keep in mind.

 

There you go. That’s my 2014 and my predictions for 2015. I’m looking forward to another great year of writing ahead (hard to believe I’ve been doing this weekly for four and a half years now), and I look forward to navigating the Magic waters with all of you.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Prediction Tracker, PredictionsTagged , 2 Comments on Insider: Looking Back on 2014 and Ahead to 2015

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Insider: Top 8 Reasons You Should Be Cubing

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8. Fun

Magic is awesome and my friends and I have been playing the game for a long time. We’ve also played other games on and off but there has always been Magic. There are many reasons why Magic is so amazing, but the main one is that it is so much fun to play. As competitive players, we sometimes forget that this is a game and we are supposed to be having fun. It’s easy to get caught up in the seriousness it takes in order to do well at big events, but don’t forget to have some fun too.

This is the main reason I love cubing, it’s fun. Think back to when you first started playing and how much you enjoyed just playing the sweet cards against your friends. Cube draft allows you to make those memories again. The great thing is that the cards are so powerful in many cubes that the games are quite competitive, but to go along with that, the primary purpose is fun. There’s no big prize on the line, maybe a little store credit but nothing major, so there’s no stress or pressure to do well.

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7. Archetypes

Going right along with number eight, the next reason you should be cubing is that there is something for everyone. In most cubes there are draftable archetypes in multiple play styles. No matter what you like to play, there’s something you’ll enjoy.

If you haven't played an archetype much, this format will give you a chance to check out one type of deck in a fun way. No two cube drafts are alike either so when you first start cubing you will be exposed to different archetypes in each draft.

Many of these possible archetypes are from a variety of previous Magic formats, so if you didn’t get to play in those formats you can still try out some cool interactions from the history of the game. In my cube, Goblins, Mono-Black, U/W Control, and U/G Ramp are all easily draftable archetypes as well as dozens of other strategies. Every cube is different but every cube has lots of decks you can draft.

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6. Experience Different Limited Formats

Speaking of checking out some older cards, cube let’s you see the best of the best from the history of the game. Gaining experience in Limited is essential to being successful at this game. If you want to do well at Grand Prix, qualify and play on the Pro Tour, then improving your drafting skills is a must.

Each cube is constructed differently and so when drafting a different cube you may be in for a completely different experience. Even if a cube has fifty percent of the same cards as another cube, drafting the two would feel completely different. Because of this fact, you will be able to utilize different cards from different previous Limited formats. So, even if you never got to play with madness or threshold, you might run into those mechanics in someone’s cube. The more formats you are familiar with the larger a knowledge base you will have to pull from.

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5. Financial Implications

There are a couple of different financial reasons you should cube. The first one is that until you start cubing, you can’t fully understand why players value cube staples, and especially foils, that highly. By playing in this wonderful format, you are giving yourself some hands-on training for identifying these types of cards in your trade partner’s binder.

Identifying possible foils that might be in demand from Legacy players as well as Cube drafters is a great way to make some money. Cube drafting exposes you to these cards in a fun and natural way so that you get experience that shows you why cards are valued as they are.

Each person’s cube will show you cards you haven’t thought about in a long time. When I’m drafting and I see a card that I haven’t seen in a while, that leads me to think about its financial implications as well as if it would be good in my deck.

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4. Card Evaluation

Not only are we working on identifying important financial cards while we are drafting but we are also building essential card evaluation skills along the way. Any regular draft format will help you with your skills in this area, but cube drafting takes you to another level.

When you have a pack with cards like Sword of Fire and Ice, Garruk Relentless, Wrath of God and Opposition, as well as other all-star cards, you are forced to evaluate each card in context of the deck you are drafting.

Through having fun drafting sweet cards, you must not only have a plan for what your deck might look like, but also be able to adapt to the picks. You are not necessarily going to switch from Reanimator to Mono-Red Aggro, but you may need to switch from a Tooth and Nail ramp deck to a midrange B/G Rock deck like I did in the last cube draft I played in.

These skills are directly transferrable to other limited formats. Card evaluation is key in any draft format and being able to identify which cards are more powerful based on context will help you succeed dramatically.

A recent example is that of two-cost creatures in Khans of Tarkir draft. With the prevalence of morph creatures in the format, getting a jump in tempo by casting a two-mana creature is a sure way to win some games. This was not clearly obvious to many players at the beginning of the format and I’m still not sure that everyone caught on yet. If you had lots of cube drafting card evaluation to rely on, you may have identified this essential concept early on which would help you stay a step ahead of the competition.

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3. Deck Building

Another basic skill that Cube drafting helps you improve upon is deck building. I always tell players, you need a plan when drafting but especially in Cube. Every card in the Cube is playable and you will always be picking great cards, but if you are not thinking about building a deck, at the end of the draft, you will be left with a pile of cards to build from rather than finalizing the pieces of your draft into a coherent deck.

My advice when cubing is to take your first pick of the draft very seriously. Often I take more time on the initial pick than any other of the draft. The reason for this is that it’s not often that you get completely cut from the archetype you are drafting so you can basically draft whatever you want.

Additionally, as with any draft, pay close attention to the first couple of packs you are passed. If you are receiving cards that go along with your potential strategy then you should be golden. If not, you may want to think about a backup plan. No matter what happens in the draft, if you are thinking about building your deck as you are drafting, things will definitely go better for you.

This process will help you in deck building for other formats like Standard as well. By trying to build different types of decks in different situations, you are learning what a card's strengths and weakness are and how that changes what you are doing in any given strategy. If you want to branch out from playing a deck that someone did well with at a tournament to innovating decks that others pick up, Cube drafting can help you build those deck building skills.

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2. Unique Situations

The number two reason you should be cubing is that you will experience more unique situations that will expand your knowledge about what to do in diverse scenarios.

Sometimes you will need to figure out how to fight through a Tanglewire, or see if you can beat a turn three Hornet Queen. Frequently you need to try to fight against an opponent with an active Sword of this or that. Once in a while you will have to play against an opponent who is tapping all of your creatures with Opposition or Glare of Subdual.

So many different game states will come up to challenge you and your skills at the game. It’s great to be able to figure out these complex board states in a fun, casual atmosphere. Whether it’s playing against interesting aggressive strategies, or attacking through a variety of unique removal spells, cube offers you the opportunity to experience some of the greatest moments in Magic.

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1. Alt Art and Sick Foils

The main reason I love cubing is that I get to see players' most prized possessions all in one spot. For me, my cube is filled with beautiful alters and shiny foil versions of our favorite cards. I have all different types of promos and original set foils, but my favorite part of cubing is seeing all the fun alters I’ve accumulated throughout my travels and exploits in Magic.

This article has been filled with some of the coolest cards from my cube, so you’ve gotten to experience some of my favorite moments from playing this game. Thanks for taking this journey with me and I hope this article has reminded you that not only should this game be fun, but also, that fun can help you improve your skills in playing.

If you don’t know anyone with a cube, start building one yourself. You don’t have to have every card you want to start off with. Build the cube from the cards you already have and then start acquiring more cards for it as you go along. New cards are quite powerful also, so you’ll be able to add some sweet ones in with each new set release.

One of the best decisions I’ve ever made was building my cube. It has been the source of endless hours of fun. When our friends visit from out of town, one of the things they look forward to is cube drafting together. Create powerful memories filled with fun and friends, build your skills, and remember to always have fun.

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Thanks for another great year writing for Quiet Speculation. I be here writing every week for another year. Thanks for reading. I would love to hear stories of great cube moments or see pictures of your favorite cube cards in the comments or via twitter.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Cube Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Battle Brawler

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This seems like a pretty sweet cycle. I don’t think these will matter financially, unfortunately, but they are all pretty sweet. I think they are less playable than Flinthoof Boar cycle if we’re talking constructed, though.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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