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[MTGO] Holiday Cube: The Perfect Mono-Red Deck, Part Two: Spells and Lands

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Part 1: Creatures | Part 2: Spells and Lands


Okay, so yesterday we started covering what the "perfect" mono-red deck would look like in the Holiday Cube on MTGO. Go read that article if you want detailed discussion of the creatures in this thought exercise. If you just want the summary, here you go:

Perfect Mono-Red Creatures

Ones

Twos

Threes

Four

I'm proposing that 15 creatures is the right amount, which is pretty standard for Limited formats in general. As the curve for this deck is stopping at four, I'm planning on including only sixteen lands, so that leaves space for nine additional spells.

Three are obvious and immediate includes: Shrine of Burning Rage, Sulfuric Vortex, and Koth of the Hammer. I mentioned yesterday that these are three of the five cards that will often push one into mono-red, so let's just get them out of the way now, since we all know they're coming.

As for burn spells, Lightning Bolt is obviously the gold standard and Chain Lightning is not far behind. Searing Spear, Lightning Strike, and Incinerate are all fine cards, but do they deserve a spot in the perfect deck? Probably not. The same goes with the two-damage burn spells with upside, like Firebolt and Burst Lightning. A case might be made for Rift Bolt or Searing Blaze, but I'm going to say Fireblast gets our third and last burn slot, as being able to target an opponent's face for four while tapped out will often end the game a turn sooner than usual.

lightningbolt

Equipment is a must. Any of the Mirrodin or Mirrodin Besieged block swords are fine, with Sword of Fire and Ice and Sword of War and Peace the best for aggro decks. However, since we don't want to be hitting five lands, these are actually a little slow. I prefer Umezawa's Jitte or Skullclamp, but let's say only Jitte makes this list. I like that Burning-Tree Emissary casts or equips it, too.

I have a lot of nostalgia for Cursed Scroll, but if I'm being perfectly honest with myself, it's probably a little slow by modern standards. Repeatable damage is fantastic and I happily play this card in this style of deck, but I don't think it makes the ideal list. Tangle Wire, on the other hand, is remarkably good if you get off to a fast start, and the curve for this deck all but guarantees that. It might be a little worse in powered cube, where permanents come out much more quickly, so this is the slot I am most willing to be swayed from.

That's 23. We've got one more.With such a low-curve deck, Wheel of Fortune is at its best. It's also one of the most powerful red spells ever printed, so it's getting the nod.

wheeloffortune

We have our spells:

Perfect Mono-Red 24

Creatures

Spells

That. Is. Sweet-looking.

Now, we're living in Magical Christmas Land, so let's get ambitious with the mana base. First, we're giving ourselves Mox Ruby and Black Lotus to replace two lands, but we'll be realistic and stop there with power. Obviously other Moxen and Sol Ring and Mana Crypt would be incredible pickups, but let's at least be somewhat realistic here, okay? One is so unlikely to get three or more pieces of power in a single draft, and there's only so ideal one deck can get.

Speaking of ideal, we've got Grim Lavamancer, so let's include Arid Mesa, Scalding Tarn, Wooded Foothills, and Bloodstained Mire. You can play them early to thin your deck if you start with a land-heavy land, or play them last if you're hoping to draw additional lands. The fuel for Grim Lavamancer absolutely makes them good. As for thinning, usually you don't want to play fetches only for that reason, but with a deck that is so weak to flooding and that cares so little about its life total, this may be an exception. The fact that Lavamancer benefits too just makes them great.

I don't want lands that come into play tapped, so Ghitu Encampment and Teetering Peeks are not considerations. I do want a mana-denial package, though, so let's include Strip Mine, Wasteland, and Rishadan Port. This leaves us with the question of man lands. If we include both Mutavault and Mishra's Factory, that will leave us with slots for Ruby, Lotus, the four fetches, and five mountains. That's only 11 red sources, one of them a one-time use, which is a little lower than I feel comfortable with. Let's say only Mutavault gets a nod.

That leaves us with our final list:

Perfect Mono-Red

Creatures

Spells

Lands+

6 Mountain

What do you think? Does this look like the perfect build, or should we slot in some different cards and remove some others? Let me know what you think about this very powerful and very hated archetype.

Temur War Shaman

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Temur War Shaman

I feel weird being so bullish on Whisperwood Elemental yesterday and not so enthused about this card today, but… not enthused. If you play this, it’s a 2-of MAXIMUM. I jamGruul Ragebeast in every EDH deck with red and green in it, just about, but this is less good than that card, which was a bulk rare and still is.This is harder to trigger than Gruul Ragebeast, so it’s mostly a creature that probably costs 1 mana too many for its power and toughness rating and which Manifests every turn. While that’s good, I don’t know if this will make the cut, unless it’s a 1-of or it’s relegated to the board.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Archfiend of Depravity

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Archfiend of Depravity

This seems pretty good in Standard, although this may not be the best curve-topper in its colors. This seems really good in a small number of EDH decks. This is really hard to evaluate because there are two scenarios and one of them happens a lot more than the other.

  • This goes nuts in Standard, possibly after Theros block rotates, and goes to like $10
  • This goes to $1 then goes to about $3 over the next two years because of modest EDH and casual demand

I worry that this is better at killing Elvish Mystic than it is at killing Siege Rhino and that our opponents can do a lot of work with 2 creatures. Still, with the effect being asymmetrical this could put you way ahead. We’ve been burned by black fliers that are better on paper than in practice (Master of the Feast anyone?) so I’m cautious, but this seems powerful and this is going to annihilate a lot of creatures in EDH.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Dragonscale General

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Dragonscale General

Until I see all of the cards in the set, I can’t say definitively that this is garbage, so I’ll say that this is probably garbage.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Soulfire Grand Master

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Soulfire Grand Master

This card is nuts. Nuts, nuts, nuts. It’s nutty. Good gravy is this nutty.

Do you think this was originally templated as a Legend until they realized people would give Blasphemous Act lifelink and get beaten to death by their EDH playgroup? I can’t say. I do like that we’re seeing a lot of creatures with the activation of the Khans’ other colors.

There isn’t much to say about this card that hasn’t been said by the labored breathing of burn players all over. Gain 6 off of a Lightning Helix and put it back in your hand. Cute. Give Stoke the Flames lifelink. Dirty. This card is very good, but very fragile.

Want a card to compare this to? How about Pain Seer? I haven’t seen preorder pricing for this yet, but this is likely to presell for way too much money. I’m not a buyer over $10 on this, and I bet it goes above that. Bust these from packs and out them before people come to their senses. Cards like this are the reason it’s profitable to presell cards. Do I think this card is nuts? Yes. I love it. But let’s be real – this is probably overrated right now, no matter how many times you buy a Time Warp back.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Jeskai Infiltrator

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Jeskai Infiltrator

Meh. Bulk rare. Thada Adel, Acquisitor was better than this and was bulk, despite having a deck it could go in. This card is a nonbo with itself. It doesn’t even have prowess. Yuck. Bulk rare.

Is it possible this card is better than I think it is? Maybe, and if you think so, I bet this is a $5 playset preordered. Buy in if you want, but I’m not impressed.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Temporal Trespass

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Temporal Trespass

It’s nearly impossible to judge this card correctly. Judge it in a vacuum without considering how many cards Sultai decks are jamming into the graveyard right now and its delve cost seems insurmountable. Remember the lesson of how underrated Dig Through Time was and you’re likely to be way too bullish. Remember the lesson of how overrated Temporal Manipulation was, and you’re likely to be way too bearish.

We need to know more. Are there going to be more ways to put cards in the yard? Are decks that do that going to benefit all that much from an extra turn where they mostly draw more spells to put more cards in the yard?  Is UUU too tough for a 3-color deck? Does this have a deck? Too many questions. Anyone acting like they can properly evaluate this right now is fooling themselves. I do know a few things.

  • EDH plays Time Warp effects
  • This card will presell for a lot of money

I don’t know whether that “a lot of money” will be too much like it was for Temporal Manipulation or too little like Dig Through Time. If I had to guess, I would guess that this is a fairer card than people think and it’s unlikely it’s as good as people who flip out over Time Walk cards always do. I’m not a buyer at over $10 preorder. Maybe I’m too risk-averse, but I am not wowed here.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Sage-Eye Avengers

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Sage-eye Avengers

This is in a classification of cards that is very awkward. I classify this is “You’re going to lose a lot of games to this in Limited, hate it, and then literally no other format, not even EDH, will want it and you’ll forget its name in 4 months.” A lot of people lost a lot of games to Tromokratis in limited not too long ago. Do you know what that card does anymore without clicking to read it? Literally the only thing it does right now is sell for a dime.

Could casual and EDH decks run this? Eh. I can’t see anyone being overly excited about it. This is a bulk rare that will be very good in Limited, and as weird as that feels, that’s just what’s going to happen.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Flamerush Rider

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Flamerush Rider

flamerushrider

This has some potential. I don’t know how good it will be in Standard without seeing the rest of the cards with dash and thinking about what sort of existing decks or emerging archetypes it can modify. This is easier to evaluate in terms of existing EDH decks, where it may play a role, but it will hit bulk before it comes to prominence if it even does in that format. My time playing with Archwing Dragon taught me that you never wanted to see a second copy and you never felt good casting it more than twice. If you’re spending all of your mana dashing, you’re soon going to run out of things to copy when this attacks and I think that’s a real liability. Anything that puts you behind curve is a liability, and too many dash creatures is likely to do that.

Hardcasting this creature feels similarly bad. 4 mana for a 3/3 haste is pushing it, but the extra ability makes it worth it. Paying 5 mana for a 3/3 may not be good enough to hack it in Standard. This card has potential, but a lot of its potential is predicated on you having something else in play that’s good. I’m not bullish.


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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Shamanic Revelation

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 Shamanic Revelation

I saw someone make a post in my local Facebook Magic group that said “Better thanTreasure Cruise? I think so!” which made me facepalm so hard that it’s been almost 24 hours and I still can’t get over it. We shouldn’t be asking “Is this better than Treasure Cruise, a card that has fundamentally impacted Modern to such an extent that an emergency ban was requested by a significant portion of the Modern-playing population?” we should be asking “Is this card better than Harmonize?”, a question to which the answer is “No, Harmonize is a better card than this is.”

That isn’t to say this card is without merit entirely. I just don’t think anyone has done a good job of evaluating this card. This is a win-more most of the time, and win-more cards are generally bad. It costs too much mana to compete with Glimpse of Nature for example. Elves doesn’t need a non-creature Regal Force. This is going to take the spot of Collective Unconcious in a few EDH decks. This looks better than it is to Timmies  and worse than it is to Spikes. EDH players are the only pragmatists and they are sort of “meh” about it, which seems about right. Momentous Fall was highly touted when it was first spoiled, and that had the benefit of having good sac targets in the form ofVengevine and Abyssal Persecutor. I have spent too much time on a likely bulk rare already.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Fate Reforged Spoilers – 12/30/14

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Let's get into it.

Shamanic Revelation

I saw someone make a post in my local Facebook Magic group that said "Better than Treasure Cruise? I think so!" which made me facepalm so hard that it's been almost 24 hours and I still can't get over it. We shouldn't be asking "Is this better than Treasure Cruise, a card that has fundamentally impacted Modern to such an extent that an emergency ban was requested by a significant portion of the Modern-playing population?" we should be asking "Is this card better than Harmonize?", a question to which the answer is "No, Harmonize is a better card than this is."

That isn't to say this card is without merit entirely. I just don't think anyone has done a good job of evaluating this card. This is a win-more most of the time, and win-more cards are generally bad. It costs too much mana to compete with Glimpse of Nature for example. Elves doesn't need a non-creature Regal Force. This is going to take the spot of Collective Unconcious in a few EDH decks. This looks better than it is to Timmies  and worse than it is to Spikes. EDH players are the only pragmatists and they are sort of "meh" about it, which seems about right. Momentous Fall was highly touted when it was first spoiled, and that had the benefit of having good sac targets in the form of Vengevine and Abyssal Persecutor. I have spent too much time on a likely bulk rare already.

Flamerush Rider

flamerushrider

This has some potential. I don't know how good it will be in Standard without seeing the rest of the cards with dash and thinking about what sort of existing decks or emerging archetypes it can modify. This is easier to evaluate in terms of existing EDH decks, where it may play a role, but it will hit bulk before it comes to prominence if it even does in that format. My time playing with Archwing Dragon taught me that you never wanted to see a second copy and you never felt good casting it more than twice. If you're spending all of your mana dashing, you're soon going to run out of things to copy when this attacks and I think that's a real liability. Anything that puts you behind curve is a liability, and too many dash creatures is likely to do that.

Hardcasting this creature feels similarly bad. 4 mana for a 3/3 haste is pushing it, but the extra ability makes it worth it. Paying 5 mana for a 3/3 may not be good enough to hack it in Standard. This card has potential, but a lot of its potential is predicated on you having something else in play that's good. I'm not bullish.

Sage-eye Avengers

This is in a classification of cards that is very awkward. I classify this is "You're going to lose a lot of games to this in Limited, hate it, and then literally no other format, not even EDH, will want it and you'll forget its name in 4 months." A lot of people lost a lot of games to Tromokratis in limited not too long ago. Do you know what that card does anymore without clicking to read it? Literally the only thing it does right now is sell for a dime.

Could casual and EDH decks run this? Eh. I can't see anyone being overly excited about it. This is a bulk rare that will be very good in Limited, and as weird as that feels, that's just what's going to happen.

Temporal Trespass

It's nearly impossible to judge this card correctly. Judge it in a vacuum without considering how many cards Sultai decks are jamming into the graveyard right now and its delve cost seems insurmountable. Remember the lesson of how underrated Dig Through Time was and you're likely to be way too bullish. Remember the lesson of how overrated Temporal Manipulation was, and you're likely to be way too bearish.

We need to know more. Are there going to be more ways to put cards in the yard? Are decks that do that going to benefit all that much from an extra turn where they mostly draw more spells to put more cards in the yard?  Is UUU too tough for a 3-color deck? Does this have a deck? Too many questions. Anyone acting like they can properly evaluate this right now is fooling themselves. I do know a few things.

  • EDH plays Time Warp effects
  • This card will presell for a lot of money

I don't know whether that "a lot of money" will be too much like it was for Temporal Manipulation or too little like Dig Through Time. If I had to guess, I would guess that this is a fairer card than people think and it's unlikely it's as good as people who flip out over Time Walk cards always do. I'm not a buyer at over $10 preorder. Maybe I'm too risk-averse, but I am not wowed here.

Jeskai Infiltrator

Meh. Bulk rare. Thada Adel, Acquisitor was better than this and was bulk, despite having a deck it could go in. This card is a nonbo with itself. It doesn't even have prowess. Yuck. Bulk rare.

Is it possible this card is better than I think it is? Maybe, and if you think so, I bet this is a $5 playset preordered. Buy in if you want, but I'm not impressed.

Soulfire Grand Master

This card is nuts. Nuts, nuts, nuts. It's nutty. Good gravy is this nutty.

Do you think this was originally templated as a Legend until they realized people would give Blasphemous Act lifelink and get beaten to death by their EDH playgroup? I can't say. I do like that we're seeing a lot of creatures with the activation of the Khans' other colors.

There isn't much to say about this card that hasn't been said by the labored breathing of burn players all over. Gain 6 off of a Lightning Helix and put it back in your hand. Cute. Give Stoke the Flames lifelink. Dirty. This card is very good, but very fragile.

Want a card to compare this to? How about Pain Seer? I haven't seen preorder pricing for this yet, but this is likely to presell for way too much money. I'm not a buyer over $10 on this, and I bet it goes above that. Bust these from packs and out them before people come to their senses. Cards like this are the reason it's profitable to presell cards. Do I think this card is nuts? Yes. I love it. But let's be real - this is probably overrated right now, no matter how many times you buy a Time Warp back.

Dragonscale General

Until I see all of the cards in the set, I can't say definitively that this is garbage, so I'll say that this is probably garbage.

Archfiend of Depravity

This seems pretty good in Standard, although this may not be the best curve-topper in its colors. This seems really good in a small number of EDH decks. This is really hard to evaluate because there are two scenarios and one of them happens a lot more than the other.

  • This goes nuts in Standard, possibly after Theros block rotates, and goes to like $10
  • This goes to $1 then goes to about $3 over the next two years because of modest EDH and casual demand

I worry that this is better at killing Elvish Mystic than it is at killing Siege Rhino and that our opponents can do a lot of work with 2 creatures. Still, with the effect being asymmetrical this could put you way ahead. We've been burned by black fliers that are better on paper than in practice (Master of the Feast anyone?) so I'm cautious, but this seems powerful and this is going to annihilate a lot of creatures in EDH.

Temur War Shaman

I feel weird being so bullish on Whisperwood Elemental yesterday and not so enthused about this card today, but... not enthused. If you play this, it's a 2-of MAXIMUM. I jam Gruul Ragebeast in every EDH deck with red and green in it, just about, but this is less good than that card, which was a bulk rare and still is.This is harder to trigger than Gruul Ragebeast, so it's mostly a creature that probably costs 1 mana too many for its power and toughness rating and which Manifests every turn. While that's good, I don't know if this will make the cut, unless it's a 1-of or it's relegated to the board.

 

Insider: How Little Is Too Little? – Determining What Price Threshold Is Worth Your Time When Picking Collections

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Greetings, Emancipators!

I'm writing this from Ryan Bushard's couch. That in and of itself isn't remarkable, but even though the visits are typically social, business will be discussed. That's just sort of how it goes.

I take a look at the stack of empty 5k boxes that I recognize from my own "tower of success" situation in my basement. Ryan has a lot of bulk in other 5k boxes that he's got to find a way to deal with, and that's the struggle, isn't it? I've talked a lot about creative ways to deal with bulk in past installments of this series, from instant collections to amassing so much that a company like Troll and Toad would consider coming all the way to you just to take it off of your hands. As long as there is a way to make money from Magic cards, we'll keep finding it.

Ryan and I got to talking about how deep he picks and how that philosophy has changed over the years. We don't need to write another article about how to deal with bulk, but there are cards that are very close to bulk, and knowing how to maximize value from cards like that is worth exploring, I think.

How Little Is Too Little?

Last May, Sigmund wrote an article about wasting your time and why not to do that. I thought it was a good article, especially coming from the point of view of someone who has a real job and therefore limited time to monkey with a childrens' card game. If you're trying to maximize your time-to-profit ratio, I agree that a lot of the time, grinding nickels into powder isn't the most effective approach.

If you're trying to maximize your time, I can't even recommend picking nickels out. A lot of people who are interested in MTG Finance are interested in maximizing their profit-to-time ratio only. We're all trying to make effective use of our time, but when people skew so far toward that one goal on the spectrum, there is some pretty valuable baby thrown out with the bathwater. Someone who is buying bathwater in this metaphor is going to be happy getting bonus baby thrown in with the deal, and those who value something else are making out.

If we're not maximizing our time-to-profit ratio, what are we instead maximizing? I'd argue that some of us see each collection as finite and feel it's worth investing some extra time in maximizing the collection. That is to say, wringing the most possible profit out of the collection even if it takes longer. Our dollar-per-hour rate is going to suffer, but once those cards are gone, you may wish you'd spent a little more time grinding profit out.

If you're taking in collections regularly like a lot of us are, you likely don't treat every collection like it's your last, but then the answer doesn't have to be one of these two extremes--either "Everything under a dollar is BULK," or "I pick anything worth more than half a penny". The answer is somewhere in between, and it never hurts to figure out to what extent you'd like to optimize the ratio between your money per card and money per minute. I wrote on the topic in response to Sigmund's piece.

Ryan and I were talking about how his "cutoff" has changed slightly. What you pick and what you sell can vary and it all depends on your outs. Let's explore this topic a bit more because it's relevant to an announcement I want to make at the end of the article.

Know Your Outs

We harp a lot on "knowing your outs" or "playing to your outs," and we do so because that end goal fixed in your mind is going to inform every one of your decisions.

If you're outing to buylists, you can't afford to pay buylist prices unless you're speculating that every card you buy is going to go up. If you are outing to eBay or TCG Player, you don't want to be picking out their nickel buylist cards even if you're only paying a nickel because those cards are rarely worth listing. They're a nickel because supply is high and demand is low. If you're looking to trade cards out, you don't want to buy competitive stuff if you trade with casuals or casual stuff if you trade with competitive players. This is all pretty basic.

But once the cards are bought, knowing your out can inform the next step in the process: picking. How "deep" should you pick? Ryan and I discussed this, and like me, his answer to this question has shifted over the years.

The difference? You guessed it. His outs. When he was paying someone per hour to list cards for him, all of a sudden it didn't make sense to pick cards that were not super likely to sell. Even if a card buylists for $0.02 it may be worth it to buylist it rather than list it for $0.35 on TCG Player. It's unlikely to sell and you paid someone to pick a card then list a card and you're paying him with money that you made selling better cards.

An even more effective use of your time? Don't pick a two cent card. I talk to a lot of financiers who don't even like to pick nickels. If your out is retailesque like TCG Player, I agree that it doesn't make a ton of sense.

Ryan's opinion started to change when he started primarily buylisting as an out. I still recommend having a TCG Player (or some other retailesque outlet) so you can still buy singles. This forces you to approach different cards a different way. You pay buylist prices on $5+ cards and list them on TCG Player confident in the fact that your profit is already built into the spread. For cheaper stuff, you don't really trifle with it, preferring to buy cards in the easiest way you can--in collections.

The way you pick a collection can be different because your out is likely to be buylisting the cards that are too cheap to bother listing on TCG Player. If you get a collection, I recommend doing what Ryan does--pick down to $0.03.

WHAT?

Stay with me. If you're trying to maximize your return from the collection, I'd pick down to $0.03 and there is one reason that it's cost effective to do this--your shipping costs are flat. The USPS has a flat rate box that fits four 1K card boxes, so if you have any room  to jam more cards, jam more cards.

If you sort properly, you sometimes have a stack of 40 copies of a nickel card. With shipping $12, it only takes 240 nickels to pay for shipping. If you have room for 240 more cards in the order, all of a sudden it wasn't so silly to pick those nickels, was it? If you're adding 20 copies of a card at a time, it adds very little time to the order processing.

However, I think while you need to pick those cards, you don't need to plan on including them as part of the order right away. Rather I add them last to shim up the boxes until I can't fit any more value in them. We're paying a flat rate, so let's make the box as heavy as possible. However, picking three-cent cards, or nickels, or anything under a dime isn't for everyone, and that's what I want to talk to you about.

Has This Ever Happened to You?

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You spend a few days putting together a big buylist order and when you come in the next day and refresh, some of your dimes are suddenly worth nothing? It's worth it to pick a nickel, but is it still worth it to ship it if they want to pay two cents on it later in the week? Usually it's better to take that stuff out of the list.

When I add everything to the list, I have it set sorted and alphabetized and the sets are in alphabetical order as well. This way, I can scroll through one box in order and take out everything going to a specific dealer quickly and easily. When it's time to build the box for the next dealer, everything left over is still in order, ready for me to quickly cull through and put together that order. The stuff left in the box at the end is stuff no one is buying anymore, and you can easily set it aside, knowing that it's worth adding to a future order.

The best part? It's in alphabetical order and easy to add to set sorted and alphabetized cards for a future order should the price go back up. It's so quick and easy to add cards that it's worth jamming them in the future.

We are exploring an option to completely remove the need to go through and remove those cheap cards manually. This was recently implemented and I am still toying with it, but if all goes well, there will be a very simple step for all of us that will automate the culling process that will pop up when you click the "sell for cash" button on Trader Tools.

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You decide your minimum price to bother with. This won't help you pick, but it will help you decide what to sell now and what to sell later. If you're not looking to ship anything for under a dime, and suddenly prices go down drastically on a lot of dime cards, it may be beneficial to you to keep them. If you set your threshold to 0.10 it won't send anything in your list below that price to trade routes. It won't be sent to the buylist carts and when you package the orders, those cards will be left behind and you can easily stash them back in your collection to sell them for a dime later.

How deep do you want to pick? I would recommend picking deep because while cards can go up in value from $0.03 it is rare for them to go down more than that. You're not going to want to repick your bulk when a $0.03 card goes over a dime, especially if it's for a limited time. Instead, having those cards as part of the inventory you have organized will help you quickly locate the whole stack and jam them in an order. It's all up to you how you choose to maximize.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: [MTGO] Estimating the Performances of Specs – An Initial Attempt at a Universal Formula

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Last week I discussed the importance of taking the time component into account when evaluating the performance of investments. Percentages and absolute Tix amounts only represent one side of the story. With so many variables between the value, number of cards involved, duration of the investment and the size of the bankroll, comparing two specs between each other could be difficult.

Of course, when comparing similar positions based on number of copies, Tix invested and duration of investment, the return on investment (ROI) is probably good enough to evaluate which of the two specs performed the best.

However, if you consider the two following positions, which one performed the best?

  1. For a 1,000 Tix bankroll, 30 copies of a 0.5 Tix card that yielded 250% profit in 100 days.
  2. For a 10,000 Tix bankroll, 15 copies of a 4 Tix card that yielded 100 % profit in 70 days.

I tried to come up with a formula that could be used to compare any two positions to each other, which took all the parameters cited above into account.

Disclaimers

I don't have any specific or advanced mathematical knowledge. Here I tried to take as many relevant parameters as possible to evaluate the performances of two positions. I'm not pretending the calculus below are the simplest or the most accurate. I simply tried to put together a formula that could be used for any positions that yielded a positive return. I also chose several values arbitrarily.

Feel free to edit and correct the following if you think I omitted something.

Defining the Parameters

The first thing to define when attempting to evaluate the performance of an investment are the relevant parameters. These parameters must be applicable to any spec.

ROI

With no surprise, the return on investment is one parameter to take into account. I use it as a positive percentage of the initial value of the position.

For instance, +100% means that the position has doubled. The higher the ROI, the better the investment is.

If X is the total initial value of your position and Y the total final value of the same position, the ROI = (Y * 100 / X) - 100.

Duration of Investment (DI)

This number represents the duration of your investment. The shorter the duration of investment the better it is.

Arbitrarily I chose to express it in days.

Number of Copies, Buying Price Per Unit and Bankroll Size

These three parameters are used to reflect a single notion--the relevance of any given position compared to the bankroll size at time of purchase. As I described last week, fewer copies save more time; the fewer copies involved, the better the investment.

The bankroll size (BS) and the buying price per unit (BU) are expressed in Tix. The number of copies is called N.

Derivative Parameters

Annualized ROI

As explained last week, the annualized ROI (ROIa) allows us to compare different specs based on their ROI normalized by a period of 365 days.

Here, ROIa = ROI * (365 / DI)

Theoretical Card Index

The Theoretical Card Index (Ct) is a value I'm introducing to reflect the relevance of the investment to Bs.

Based on Bu and Bs, I first estimate the number of playsets (Pt) needed to represent 1 % of Bs. I chose 1 % arbitrarily as most of my spec are close to representing 1 % of the size of my bankroll (this percentage could be anything of your choice).

The number of playsets is simply the number of copies divided by 4 (rounded up). For instance, 3 copies make 1 playset, 44 copies make 11 playsets, 203 copies make 51 playsets. I'm using the number playsets because in most instances it takes the same amount of time to deal with 1 card or 1 playset.

So Pt = ROUNDUP ((Bs * 0.01) / Bu)

When trying to come up with this Card Index I wanted a value that reflects the fact that the more copies you use for a spec the less efficient it is.

Since dealing with one or five playsets is about the same--it takes a little bit more time with five but won't impact much, if at all, your sell or buy price and won't require significantly more time. For instance, you can easily buy/sell 4 to 6 playsets in a row from/to Mtgotraders' buying bots without changing the price. On the other hand dealing with 50 playsets is not only time consuming but it is likely to affect your buy/sell price.

Instead of directly using Pt I decided to use 1.005^P. This new value increases exponentially (although very slowly) as Pt increases. For low Pt values the value of 1.005^Pt are "relatively" close, for higher Pt values the difference gets bigger and bigger. 1.1 is chosen arbitrarily here again.

I defined Ct as Ct = 1 / (1.005^Pt)

Adjusted Card Index

Now that we have a Ct for each spec, I'll calculate the Adjusted Card Index (Ca), which is Ct adjusted to the number of playsets actually used (P) for any given investment. Similarly to Pt, P = ROUNDUP (N / 4).

With this, Ca = Ct * (P / Pt)

I formulate Ca to be dependent on the size of the bankroll, the number of copies purchased and the price of each copy. This way, the same spec with the same number of copies purchased and for the same buying price will have a different relevance--a different Ca--for a different bankroll.

Higher bankrolls would need to buy more copies to make it more significant, but as you need more copies it is also counterproductive as it decreases the value of Ca. This means that whatever you do, some specs are simply not adapted for the size of the bankroll--you are not optimizing your time, and you should aim for specs that require fewer copies and/or have a higher price per unit.

Speculating with 50 copies of a 0.05 Tix card is not a good investment of your time and your Tix it you have a 10,000 Tix bankroll. At the opposite, the same spec could be totally suitable for a 100 Tix bankroll.

The Performance Score

With all the above parameters defined, here is the formula I came up with for the performance score (Ps) of any investment:  ROIa * Ca.

Being fully developed and using the five basic variables ROI, duration of investment (DI), the number of copies purchased (N), the buying price per unit (Bu) and the bankroll size (Bs), here is what it looks like:

Ps = (ROI * (365/DI)) * ((1 / (1.005^(ROUNDUP ((Bs * 0.01) / Bu)))) * ((ROUNDUP (N / 4)) / (ROUNDUP ((Bs * 0.01) / Bu))))

As is the formula can be used in Excel.

Everything being equal, Ps gets higher (better) if:

  1. The ROI increases.
  2. The duration of the investment decreases.
  3. The number of copies decreases.
  4. The buying price per unit increases, which is likely to also have the number of copies decrease as well.
  5. The size of the bankroll gets smaller.

As the variations of Ps are not linear (see below for examples), two investments with a Ps of 200 and a Ps of 100 doesn't mean that the first one performed twice as well as the second one. I'm sure with better understanding and usage of mathematics one could come up with a formula that reflects this. Here, the formula I'm proposing only compares different investment performances between each other and tells you which one is "better".

Examples

I'll use the three examples I used last week--Spoils of the Vault, Angel of Serenity and Voice of Resurgence.

  • 47 copies of Spoils of the Vault, purchased at 0.12 Tix each, for an ROI of +480% in 244 days.
  • 22 copies of Angel of Serenity, purchased at 1.16 Tix each, for an ROI of +170% in 91 days
  • 6 copies of Voice of Resurgence, purchased at 15.66 Tix each, for an ROI of +43% in 38 days.

In both cases the bankroll size is set at 10,000 Tix.

  • Ps of Spoils of the Vault = 14.53
  • Ps of Angel of Serenity = 116.63
  • Ps of Voice of Resurgence = 408.92

According to this formula, Spoils of the Vault is clearly the worst performer of the three positions. However, the same Spoils of the Vault investment made with a 900 Tix bankroll this time around would give a Ps of 412.49. This investment is much more relevant for a smaller bankroll.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Perilous Vault

For another example, applying this formula to Perilous Vault, probably my best investment so far, gives me a Ps of 2136.71.

Comments And Critics

What do you think of it? This formula is supposed to be applicable for every spec (with a positive return) and for every bankroll. I'm far away from claiming it's perfect but it's a first step toward a tool to evaluate and compare specs between each other, and across different bankroll sizes.

Some of you are certainly more mathematicians than I am and you may have seen flaws in my reasoning and my formula. How would you update and modify this? Please share your thoughts and check the Ps of your investments.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

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