After taking a few days to digest the major announcement from Wizards, it's time to start figuring out what cards are going to see major changes. We'll start with the change that everyone's making a fuss over: Combat Damage not using the stack. Many cads with Sacrifice abilities got SERIOUSLY nerfed, while some combat tricks got changed. The ordering of blockers (and similarity to Trample) also changes some cards dramatically. Let's go over some of the uncommons and rare creatures in Standard with sacrifice effects:

Dauntless Escort: Big loser here. No more X-for-1s with him. He is clearly not the powerhouse he used to be, so there will be a drop in value here.

Fulminator Mage: His utility as a land destruction spell remains, but it's very hard to get your value now. He's already only 4 bucks and unless the LD deck Kyle Sanchez suggested on Star City takes off, he's kind of not that good.

Glen Elendra Archmage: Although most people use this for the Seal of Negate ability, the fact you can't counter a trick while damage is on the stack is a negative. Frankly, the card is still plenty good without stacked damage tricks, so there shouldn't be any movement one way or the other.

Siege-Gang Commander: Despite its high power level, the Siege-Gang sees little Standard play right now. The ability to stack damage AND fling Goblins was part of the card's appeal and while the card is still fantastic, there's no doubt it loses a lot of its power with this change. Since it's not played much in Standard anyway, there won't be a huge demand change. The implications for Legacy Goblins, however, are absolutely HUGE.

Burrenton Forge-Tender: Darn. Losing one damage off the Forge-Tender is really not going to matter. You can still block and prevent a second attacker, you just can't damage the blocked creature. Still a great SB card.

Mogg Fanatic: The big one. Mogg Fantastic is still great - a 1 drop with utility, but it's frankly just not what it has been for the last 10 years. Red Deck Wins still has to play them since it's about the best thing to do with the 1-drop spot next to Figure, but with Ball Lightning coming back, Flamekin Bladewhirl might be making a serious case for play in RDW.

Nantuko Husk: Not many decks (if any) are running him in Standard, but those that do are losing a tremendous weapon. Despite being strictly better than Scathe Zombies, he loses a lot of his punch. Not really a big deal but worth noting.

Thopter Foundry: Not Standard, but the Block Esper deck just hates this. No more trading with another creature AND getting a free creature out of it. Beyond it's applications in the PT block deck, there don't seem to be many uses for it. Still a shame.

There are surely other cards that are effected, but things with sacrifice effects are the hardest-hit. You can see that the vast majority of cards remain the same, but a few real powerhouses have been hit hard. Thankfully no really valuable cards have taken a hit in Standard as far as we can tell.

...to bring you even more stuff to do while you're here! The first of many things to come of this partnership is the MarketWatch search bar you see to your right. Type in a card's name and it'll take you right on over to the Black Lotus Project, where you can see historical data for cards in chart form. Those of you familiar with Google Finance will recognize the interface used for the charts - that's because they use the same technology! How freakin' cool is THAT?

Anyway, Black Lotus Project uses data from the Magic Online Trading League, which aggregates eBay data daily. If you, the reader, have any features you'd like to see based on that data, suggest it in the comments and I will do my best to get it added. For now, enjoy the new search feature!

So, mana burn's officially gone. Braid of Fire, Eladamri's Vineyard, and things of that sort just becamse TOTALLY new cards. I'd suggest snapping up a set or two of Braid of Fire, just in case someone figures out a way to abuse tons of free mana in a red deck. Bear in mind that mana now empties from the pool after each step AND phase, so no upkeep floating into draw shenanigans. The symmetrical effect of Vineyard makes it more dangerous, but its still a totally new space to work with. I'd see if those are cheap too.

Look at THAT! As much as I loved the iconic old Ball Lightning art, this new hotness just makes me want to play Burn again. With Hellspark Elemental to pal around with, he might bring Mono Red back to viability. Ball Lightning is not cheap right now, and the announcement of its reprinting and its triumphant return to Standard will drive the price even higher. If you can get them cheap at a local shop, snap them up because I see these getting priced around 10 bucks to start.

Glacial Fortress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control an Island or a Plains.

T: Add or to your mana pool.

Well, those seem good! Strictly better than Coastal Tower and its cousins, can be better than Tri-Lands. They DO NOT have basic land types, do not penalize you after the turn they come into play, and they reward you for playing Basics.

I'm frankly not sure what to make of them, but them seem good.

In a move that could cost Star City Games thousands of dollars in sales, they have revamped their entire price structure on Magic singles. Almost every card in their inventory has been reduced in price! Chameleon Colossus is down from 7.50 to 7.49! Maelstrom Pulse, the hottest single in Standard today, is down to 24.99! Sorrow's Path has even been reduced to..well actually it's still at 75 cents.

In all seriousness, it seems like Star City reduced the stuff that was priced on the dollar to xx.99. This is pretty common in sales, so I'm not at all surprised. I felt compelled to report this since it is, technically, financial news, but I'll spare you any more tongue-in-cheek analysis.

By now, everyone's heard that M10 will contain about 50% new cards. The internet is abuzz with rumors and speculation as to what will be reprinted, and what will not. One thing that hasn't gotten any press whatsoever is how the existence of new cards will effect the value of the reprints. The cards that got reprinted in M10, such as Pithing Needle, held their value extremely well. In some cases, they even gained some value. This is because core sets simply don't see as many packs opened as the expansions do. This is all going to change with M10 - people will be tearing into packs like rabid wombats to get their hands on new cards. The addition of the Lorwyn Planeswalkers will also drive sales, as will the usage of M10 as a Limited format at multiple Grand Prix after its release.

Having not seen a core set containing new cards in the modern era of Magic, it's hard to figure out how this will effect the price of cards. My belief is that M10 will feel more like an expansion than a "core set", mainly due to the new Duals and the old Planeswalkers. If the new duals are anything close to the power of the Ravnica duals, M10 will fly off the shelves. What do you think the impact of having new cards in a core set will be? Will reprint prices fall? Will the new Duals be ridiculously overpriced at first, or will they be priced similar to the pain lands?

In the comments of the previous post about Louisville's PTQ, here's what reader Corey saw in Massachusetts:

Previous to the PTQ in MA yesterday almost everyone at my local store was looking for Twilight Mires and no one had any. At the PTQ one dealer was sold out of them early while the other dealer had them for $8. The dealer who was sold out eventually was "buying" them for $9 in trade and a little after that the dealer who had them moved their price up to $10.

This is likely a result of the popularity of Jund Blood and 5C Blood decks, since no one had been using Twilight Mire at all beforehand. I saw a lot of Jund Blood in Louisville too. Maelstrom Pulse and Twilight Mire go hand-in-hand so keep your eyes on the Mire to rise steadily in value.

I had the good fortune to attend a 170+ attendance PTQ in lovely Louisville, KY today and speak with Josh from the local card dealership, The Mana Screw. Thanks to Josh's patience and keen eye, here are a few notes from a dealer on a PTQ floor. While their website, www.manascrew.com, is currently under development, they can be reached at manascrew@gmail.com. I encourage you to get in touch with them if you need cards in the Louisville area. They were a pleasure to deal with, very friendly and outgoing.

-The most sought-after card was Runed Halo. They only had four playsets and moved them immediately. They were charging only 4 dollars a card for them.

-Thought Hemmorhage at $8 saw an unusual amount of volume, most likely due to the anticipated prevalence of Swans Combo* and a good number of players in the room playing Red-Black Aggro.

-Sygg, River Cutthroat didn't move well at all, and while they were selling for $4, no one bought one all day. He did note that their volume spiked tremendously after GP Seattle, so it seems like the people who needed them got them before the event.

-Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker was selling for $13, and more of them were sold than normal. This is likely as a result of the Barcelona 2nd place list running one main deck.

-After the halfway point of the 8 round tournament, Mana Screw saw a marked increase in people selling away their Jace Belerens. Faeries and 5 Color were not well represented so perhaps the people playing the decks that run Jace just scrubbed out and gave up on their deck?

-Maelstrom Pulse is everywhere. It would have to win the award for most common non-land card played all day. It is the real deal.

-Meddling Mage seems to be dropping in demand. The one I got as part of the Pack Challenge I have not been able to trade and thus accepted an 8 dollar cash offer. When MM looks to have bottomed out, that's the time to swoop in and grab 2 or 3 playsets on the cheap.

-Bant Aggro was very popular but frankly does not seem to fare well against Swans Combo. The deck has explosive draws but...doesn't do anything besides turn dudes sideways.

For those trying to keep up with the market, going to premiere events is essential. You can see a broad range of decks and players. A savvy trader can usually take advantage of different markets and different sets of values and demands. Don't be shy about talking to dealers either, and if you go to a PTQ or other event this summer, ask your friendly neighborhood cardboard vendor what trends he's been seeing. Leave a comment if you do and I'll repost it on the front page.

Oh, and for those of you who want to know how I fared in the tournament, foll0w me on Twitter!

A comment on Top8 Magic has specified that the game will cost 800 points, or 10 dollars. While there has been nothing that proves or disproves this, I can imagine that I'll be buying a copy just to get a 10 dollar Garruk foil, and resell the game to someone who doesn't care about the promo. Speculate on this at your own risk because this is currently nothing more than a rumor. What do you think will happen to Garruk's price if this is true? Leave a comment and let your opinion be known!

Looks like the only ARB Mythic of any value is tanking! Lord of Extinction is down to 10 bucks. Considering that he looks so good, but is in reality not so great, I'm not shocked. Sen Triplets is also down a dollar or so, while Thought Hemorrhage is down to a very reasonable 6 dollars. That seems low, especially considering the havoc it wreaks on Cascade Swans. I'd pick up a set cheap because they'll see more play once Lorwyn-Shadowmoor rotate out of Standard.

Note: This article is a rare distraction from the usual finance-focused content on Quiet Speculation. We'll return to making money with little pieces of cardboard shortly!

Magic, like so many competitive endeavors, is a game of inches. Every mistake you make in a given game has amazing potential to impact your entire Magic career. Imagine this hypothetical situation in which any talented player could find himself: You're a 1900+ rated Constructed player, playing in a PTQ for the Top 8. You're playing 5 Color Control, and you just played the wrong Vivid Land on turn 1. Because of this, you need to remove an extra counter to cast a Broken Ambitions next turn, and 15 untap, upkeep, and draws later, you suddenly can't buy a red source to play a game-winning Volcanic Fallout. All because you played the wrong land that turn. As a result, you take an extra turn of combat damage, which means you don't get one more turn to find that Cruel Ultimatum on top of your deck, which means you lose the game, the match and your spot in top 8. Killer, for sure, but then you check the ratings when they're posted the following Wednesday. It seems that your rating at 6-1 in the tournament was good enough to snag you a 3rd bye at the upcoming Grand Prix, but losing the 8th round knocked you below the threshold again and that was your last shot at ratings-based bye. In Round 3, you play Lucky Little Timmy McDragonface who is miraculously 2-0 with his Quillspike Combo deck (of course lacking the really good cards like Glen Elendra Archmage). You lose horribly because you never tested the Timmy Quillspike matchup, and go on to miss day 2 by a single match. Then your dog gets hit by a car. All because you played the wrong land that turn.

With the exception of the unfortunate traffic accident involving your pooch, all of this sturm und drang could have been prevented. That's clearly a very exaggerated example but if you look at your play history, I'm sure you can find ample situations where this butterfly effect has a much bigger reach than you initially realized. I lost a vital game at Regionals by not bottom-decking a card when I clashed. I'd have drawn an Esper Charm the turn before I died, instead of a land. The charm would have let me play Cruel Ultimatum, which would have bought me a turn and drawn me into all the right cards to win the game and the match. I was literally one draw away from winning that game, and my 2nd turn clash decision lost it for me.

Again, Magic is a game of inches. What does that even mean? It means that even though 99.9% of the things you do are correct, the 0.1% of your choices that are just blatantly wrong are enough to quite reliably ruin your day. No matter who you are, you WILL make a mistake at some point. Realizing the mistake in a timely manner is all that's important. The best time to realize one is when you're about to make one. If you know your deck uses EVERY vivid counter eventually, and you rely on those vivid lands to make the Red mana for Fallout, maybe you should let that turn 2 spell resolve after all. Or maybe you should adjust your mana base, you greedy pig. But alas, mistakes happen. We all make them. Oddly enough, we mostly make the same mistakes. All but the most disciplined players are bothered by the mistakes FAR more than they should be. The rest of us begin spouting off a ridiculous inner monologue that's so destructive to our play skill and our ego that it should be punishable by a savage beating.

If this sounds like you, don't be surprised. I wonder if I should even be playing this game. So many people are probably better than me. [Pro Player] would never make that mistake. Maybe I'm just not cut out for high level play. I'll never "Q" if I keep making dumb mistakes. I guess I just don't "have what it takes". I should give up. To hell with drafting, I'm opening these packs - I need some new card smell to make me feel better.

It's all a bunch of egoic, self indulgant, garbage. Magic's a tough game. The interactions between the cards and the imperfect information and the different play styles make it approximately impossible to be right 100% of the time. There's no "secret" or "magic pill" to getting better. Well actually, there is: it's a little drug I like to call Practice, and it should be taken twice daily with food. I'm sure you've done tons of difficult stuff in your lifetime. Things you take for granted now, like speaking your native language, learning to walk, learning to drive a car - these are all things that were obscenely hard when you first started. Heck, they had to hire a speech therapist to ensure that I didn't sound like there were rocks in my mouth. The point is, the only way you learned to do that stuff was by doing it. Practice. In Magic, practice will never make perfect, but it'll give you those vital 0.1 percentage points you need to separate yourself from the pack. There's no alchemy, no special sauce, and nothing sexy about it, but that's what separates the field in this game. There's a certain confidence that can only be attained by truly having "been there" and having "done that". So get there, do that, and I promise you'l be a better player for it. Even the best players to ever have played the game make the same dumb mistakes you do. You just make them more often and don't recover as well.

To the perfectionists out there, those intolerable handful for whom 99.99 does not equal 100, I leave you with this thought. In baseball, the difference between a multi-millionaire All-Star hitter and a player who's barely justifying a major-league salary is about 38 hits in a season. Over 162 games, the difference between a stellar .333 average and a mediocre .270 average translates to an extra hit every 4 or 5 games. Did you know that it takes a 95 MPH fastball well under half a second to reach the strike zone, and 2/3rds of that time is occupied by your brain processing the ball and sending signals to the muscles to swing (or not)? Now consider that an 8th of an inch on the bat in almost any direction is all that separates a home run, a foul tip, a grounder to first, a long fly ball, and a pop-up, not to mention where in the strike zone the bat hits the ball. Still want to complain that Magic is hard?

You're going to make a mistake in the next game of Magic you play. I guarantee it. It might be a small one, so small that you don't even notice. You might make a major misplay and still blow your enemy out of the water. But you're going to make one, so keep your eyes open and as soon as you see yourself making a mistake, remember the PTQ horror story. Your story can end two ways - "...all because I played the wrong land that turn!" or "...so now I need to figure out what to play on my first Pro Tour."

Just checking in to say that Ebay is spotting Sygg at 10 dollars a playset, and at fairly high volume. This is a marked change from yesterday and the day before....