If you build it, they will come. Sometimes, a format is popular enough that it takes flight without any DCI intervention, but this is not always the case. The issue facing the Vintage community today is such a case. The scarcity of cards and price of entry to Sanctioned Vintage events is prohibitive to new players, and the 10-proxy system is doing more damage than good.

If you've not read Patrick Chapin's article on the Premium side of Star City Games today, you really must. With the eloquence that only the Innovator brings, he lays out the dilemma facing the Vintage community. Proxies are killing the format. While the article won't be rehashed here, since we like and respect our friends at Star City, the crux of the matter is that all humans have a sense of investment. Investment. That's a word we discuss a lot here. What is Investment, and what does it mean to the more financially-minded players of our beloved game? Among the many dictionary definitions of the word, investment means two things:

"A devoting, using, or giving of time, talent, emotional energy, etc., as for a purpose or to achieve something"
"The use of money or capital in order to gain profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value."

While the latter definition is more common, and the focus of Quiet Speculation, the former definition may be a little less straightforward. Chapin's article accurately suggests that Vintage players who use proxies are less emotionally invested in the format as a result. Standard is a popular format because it allows players a number of liberties that older formats do not. The relevance of new cards is of paramount importance - Wizards wants the new cards to be applicable and useful. New Eternal staples are few and far between, and that's because Eternal formats don't drive sales like Standard staples do. Wizards understands this, players understand this, and that's why M10 sold so amazingly well. Every serious player needed to own playsets of at least 7 cards in M10, one of which was Mythic.

The truth of the matter is that product support drives players to a format. As human beings we will naturally remain financially and emotionally invested as long as Magic remains a collectible card game. It's a form of inertia; unless an outside force acts upon a player, that player will continue to play His Format. Everyone has their format. Some people have multiple formats, but almost everyone has a format they prefer for some reason. If you own a playset of every rare in Standard, you'll play Standard. If you own Power, you'll probably play Vintage. It's a chicken and egg scenario - which comes to a player first, the inkling to play a format or the resources to do so? If you want to play Vintage, you'll get the power. If you get the Power, you'll want to play Vintage. It seems, then, that the answer is to get Power into the hands of players while giving them an incentive not to trade or sell said Power for newer cards.

While Chapin's article mentions weaning players from proxies, this will be difficult to do for financial reasons. Step into the shoes of your average TO. Most of the TOs you'll meet are good businessmen (or women!). They run a business like any other entrepreneur, and their goal is to generate profit which can be reinvested towards growth. If 10-proxy is profitable and enjoyable, why on earth would they stop doing it? It doesn't make sense. The only weapon that the DCI can employ is the lack of sanctioning, and it's clear that players don't care. The general sense is that Vintage players will play the format whenever they can, especially in areas that haven't got a thriving Vintage community.

The DCI simply cannot regulate unsanctioned games of Magic. Just like they can't bust onto Timmy's kitchen table at 3am, hold a gun to his head and force him to Rochester Draft, they can't do anything but suggest that TOs sanction their events. So what's the solution? Well, let's look at what the Federal Government (of the United States, for all the overseas readers) has just done. The "Cash for Clunkers" program offers a significant incentive to buyers of fuel-efficient vehicles. It was not simply enough to take a moral high ground and spout out "Green" rhetoric, wasting precious television advertising space and accomplishing little. The CARS program elegantly solves two issues - one, that Americans cannot afford to buy brand new cards in the midst of a horrible recession, and two, Americans love their gas guzzlers. By making brand-new fuel efficient automobiles less expensive, Washington's not-so-invisible hand is guiding automotive spending.

How does this apply to Magic? Well, let's look at the biggest complaint that most would-be Vintage players raise - the cost of entry. It's no secret that Vintage is an expensive format for a neophyte. Even a very heavily played set of traditional Power will cost a few thousand dollars, and that doesn't include mini-Power like Bazaar of Baghdad, Mana Drain, and Dual Lands. Although Magic occupies a large demographic, many players are under the age of 30 and do not have access to that level of disposable income. Compounding this issue is the sheer scarcity of Power and the fact that people rarely "trade down" with Power. In short, it's a lot easier to get a playset of Baneslayer Angels and Great Sable Stags than it is to get a single Mana Drain.

Wizards needs to get players invested the format. There are many ways to do this, but all of them will eventually encounter the same problem - there are only so many Lotuses out there. Without worrying about the other few thousand dollars of cards a Vintage player needs, you MUST own a Lotus if you're playing Vintage. End of discussion. How does Wizards get Lotuses into the hands of players? Here are a few ideas.

Print an extremely limited run of foil Lotuses on the old border with the old art. This version should look as similar to the original as possible. Think Timeshifted. Black Lotus is an icon of the game, and to alter its appearance in any way would be a total catastrophe. Remember what happened with Meddling Mage? Most players these days tragically don't know who Chris Pikula is, but they sure know what a Lotus is. How limited will the print run be? Less than 100, for certain. Let's shelf this idea for just a second, and move on to the next one.

Begin a sanctioned tournament series that gives away Power. It's rather dumb that most Vintage tournaments have Power as the prize. If you play no-proxy Vintage, you probably have Power. How are new players supposed to enter the format when they need the prize to play? That's asinine! How about Standard and Extended tournaments for Power? There's no rule that says Vintage cards have to be given away only at Vintage events. Combine this with a microscopic print run of premium Power cards as prizes, and publicize it nationally. There could even be lower-level qualifier events that give out the 'lesser' Vintage staples as prizes, like Duals and Drains. As long as the scarcity is kept high, they will not effect the value of the originals. A tournament series like this would get players talking about Vintage as well as playing it, and it would also get some Power into the hands of players who don't want to spend thousands of dollars buying them outright.

Diversity will be the key to this program's success, but it should culminate in a big Vintage tournament with
lavish prizes and all the appeal of a Grand Prix or a Pro Tour. Run a few months of Standard Trials (or Qualifiers), a few months of Extended Trials, and then finish the series with a 2-day Grand Prix style event that's split format between Vintage and Legacy. Award lesser foil staples to those who place highly in the qualifiers. The basic idea is to make the format relevant while awarding cards that facilitate the playing of the format. While the structure would take a good deal of work, something like an annual Eternal Championship Series would help support an old and struggling format. Get the cards in the hands of players and give them an incentive not to sell those cards. If you need a Lotus to play a tournament where the first prize is thousands of dollars, you're going to keep that Lotus. Give the players a reason to play Vintage every month out of the year, reward them handsomely for doing so, and the format will see a resurgance.

It should be noted that Vintage and Legacy will never see the popularity that Standard does. It's impossible. The format could not support such a number of people without a massive reprinting effort. Such an effort would demolish the price of Power if done incorrectly and would not be worth the risk. In all probability, 50 new copies of Black Lotus in foil won't mess with the price of the old ones too badly, nor will a couple hundred foil black-bordered Duals. This would seem to fall within the constraints of the archaic Reserved List which states, "All policies described in this document apply only to non-premium, tournament-legal Magic cards." Discussions regarding the Reserved List's place and contents are best left for another day, but suffice it to say that a document needs revision when it states that the value of Oath of Ghouls needs to be protected. Mind you the List makes no mention of Oath of Druids.

The issue at hand is an extremely complex one, but Pat Chapin hit the nail on the head when he explained that Vintage is all about investment. Wizards needs to find a way to get players invested in Vintage, and that's best done by providing them something that can't be had any other way. Give us a chance to earn the cards for the format, give us a reason to talk about it on the forums, give us something to become slightly outraged about, and give us a big prize pool to win. If you build it, Wizards, they will come, so let's build the damn thing already.

Hey everyone, Kelly Reid here. I'm the guy who does the majority of work on this here site, and I'd like to take a minute to address a few points about Quiet Speculation.

First of all, I want to thank and welcome all my new readers over the last few weeks! Many of you have found the site via Evan Erwin's Magic Show, and to those guests I'd like to say "thanks for watching!" A few people have commented that updates have been a little less frequent lately, and I'd like to address that.
The long and short of it is that between my day job, working GenCon, working out the hardware and software kinks for my segment of the Magic Show, and other such mundane tasks, I've been slightly pressed for time. As such, longer articles have fallen by the wayside for the moment. With GenCon winding to a close, regular updates should begin again shortly.

Don't think I've forgotten about the weekly schedule either - the time between sets is usually light on news - the recent set's stopped spiking and dipping in price and the new spoilers aren't out yet. With Zendikar spoilers just starting to break, we'll be ramping up the updates again. I just want to assure my readers that Quiet Speculation hasn't fallen off the face of the earth!

The same goes for what is meant to be a weekly segment on The Magic Show. Evan and I have been working together to figure things out from a technical aspect - A/V was never my strong suit, but with Evan's guidance we're getting the lead out. My initial hope was to follow up the first show immediately with a second, but due to technical issues we've had to push my second appearance back a few times. I've since acquired some new hardware which should make things go smoothly from here on out.

In other news one of my earliest readers, Amistod, was kind enough to help me acquire an iPhone over the weekend. Aside from giving him a big shout-out, I'd like to ask the readers to leave some feedback about a possible QS iPhone app. What features would you like to see? What price point would you expect? I'm all about making this site the best it can be, and part of that ethic is reader feedback. I can't implement the features you want if I don't know what those features are, so be free and generous with your feedback - I literally read every email, comment and tweet directed my way and try to respond to as many as I can.

That's it for now! Stay tuned for some info about From the Vault - Exiled as it starts shipping out and selling out. For those curious where the price will end up, just keep in mind that you could have sold yours to Star City Games at GenCon for 75 dollars in cash. The hype is unreal, and it's probably justified. If you can get these things at MSRP or thereabouts, it would be wise to acquire a copy or five. If the print run is as limited as they say it is, this set will be worth big bucks eventually.

Best regards and thanks for reading!

--Kelly B Reid

A must for any EDH player or Cube builder, the full details can be found here. The real story here is Berserk - You might be able to find a beat up copy for the 35 bucks that FTV:E costs! Not to mention premium versions of Goblin Lackey, Lotus Petal, Mystical Tutor and Sensei's Divining Top. The prices of the reprinted cards will depend how availible this box set is. If it's widely availible then the cards will probably drop in price slightly, but as long as the box set remains somewhat uncommon then the premium versions will have significant value.

Picking up right where we left off, we're going to talk about the rares in Conflux and Alara Reborn that you should keep on your radar. Frankly, there aren't a whole lot. A lot of the cards that will see play are already at the correct prices. Cards like Master of Etherium, Wall of Reverence, Thought Hemorrhage, Maelstrom Pulse and Dauntless Escort are all fine cards, but they are already where they should be. Not that there won't be fluctuations, but they'll be minor.

A lot of these predictions are predicated on the existing Block archetypes; new archetypes that emerge with Zendikar cannot be speculated upon until the set's spoiled. Another factor is the availability of mana fixing in the next large set; some archetypes just haven't got the mana fixing to be viable but will have potential if a new set of duals or tri-lands are printed in Zendikar. The following 6 cards from Conflux and Alara Reborn represent possible opportunities. There are a few instances of a card with an acceptable book price that are simply trading down for some reason. Uril the Miststalker, for example, books at 5 but most people are willing to call him 2 in trade.

As usual, when acquiring "crap rares" on speculation, it's wise to keep in mind that you are not buying a "sure thing". The point of speculating on low-priced rares is that when you are (inevitably) wrong, the cost is very low in comparison to the potential rewards of being correct. It's just "Good EV" for those mathematically inclined. If you bought Sygg, River Cutthroat the Sunday of Grand Prix Seattle, when it was clear he was the breakout card of the event, you might have paid 75 cents each. 3 playsets would have cost 9 dollars, and the prediction was for them to go to about 4 dollars each. They did so, and your 9 dollars would have turned into almost 50. Get that prediction right more than 1 time out of 5 and you're making money. Not every card is going to be a hit, and in much the same way that Minor League baseball players can go from hot prospect to 30-year old bust, so too will some cards spend their entire tenure in the Standard format trying to "break through".

That said, let's get to the good stuff!

Exotic Orchard – Unless Zendikar brings us some new lands on par with the Vivids, people will be playing Tri-lands and M10 duals to fix their mana. If this is the case, Orchard will be a popular land simply because it's usually a tri-land that comes in untapped. It's no Reflecting Pool, but it should see use as a 2-of in some decks. It’s probably priced correctly right now, but it shouldn’t be hard to find someone with some extras they’ll part with on the cheap.

Finest Hour – The Bant decks will have their work cut out for them unless Zendikar’s generous with its mana fixing. Losing filter lands really hurts. If Bant gets the mana fixing it desperately needs, it could be viable and let’s be honest – who doesn’t want to land a Finest Hour off an Enlisted Wurm?

Noble Hierarch – Hierarch spiked hard around Regionals, and has come down to earth since. The card is still the best in Conflux and is far too versatile and powerful to go unused. They’re trading around 10 right now and they’re not in demand. If you see them, it’s probably not an awful idea to pick them up since they really shouldn’t ever dip below 10 dollars.

Scepter of Fugue – It may not even reach 5 dollars, but it’s been good vs. Control decks out of the sideboard so far. A cheap source of card advantage, Scepter of Fugue should see play as long as there’s a control deck in the format.

Time Sieve – The deck seems to be catching on in local shops, which means the flagship card could see a price spike. There’s already been a small one but the deck isn’t currently regarded as Tier 1. Jonathon Loucks can see the deck being good post-rotation as it loses so little compared to other decks. Along with Open the Vaults and the other cards from that deck, picking them up cheap probably won’t cause you any trouble.

Uril the Miststalker – The question you ask when you look at Uril in Zendikar Standard is, “How do you beat him?” Aside from Planar Cleansing, the best answer is Wall of Denial and hope they don’t have a pump spell. He hit 25 dollars at Pro Tour Honolulu, and while expecting that to repeat is unreasonable, it’s possible that he could hit double digits if there’s a good deck using him. Remember, un-loved Mythics with this kind of potential can go from “crap rare” prices to 5-10 dollars very quickly when they find a home.

The bottom line is that we'll need to wait until Zendikar gets spoiled to refine these predictions. As more information becomes availible, we'll revisit this list along with re-evaluating M10 in light of the new cards.

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A lot of people have been writing in to ask if they can get involved with the site in some way. It's great to know that so many people are enjoying what we do and want to be a part of it. There are a lot of different ways you can get involved with Quiet Speculation! The easiest way is to stay involved in the post-article discussions. It's also great to have many pairs of eyes and ears out in the field, at events, at game stores, and throughout the country and world. Information is the most vital commodity when it comes to speculating on Magic prices, so any info reported by readers is valuable. Contact information is at the top of every page, so don't be shy!

Two reader feedback questions:

a) Would you prefer a discussion forum to replace the comments section? How would this effect your use of "talkback" features?

b) Regarding a Twitter account dedicated to price updates and reader observations: Readers could Tweet @quietspeculation and/or use a hash tag to stay up to date with price trends. Real-time information is the best kind. Would you read this Twitter feed? Contribute? Why or why not?

I'm doing everything I can to make this site what my readers want it to be. If you have any comments, suggestions or feedback, make use of the contact information at the top of each page. I try to reply to every email I get about this site.

Welcome back! Lorwyn’s days of dominating Standard are coming to a close. The trade winds are abuzz with players selling off their filter lands and reflecting pools. Everyone’s asking “what’s going to drop in value?” Nobody’s asking the more important question.

Don't worry too much about what's going to drop in price. Drops are usually slow and drawn-out, whereas spikes are quite the opposite. It usually takes the banning of a card entirely to kill its value overnight.

With a whole lot of format-defining stuff rotating out, we owe it to ourselves to take a second look at Alara Block on the whole. Starting with Shards, there are a few cards that have untapped potential. A few are in use in Standard right now, some shone in Block, and some haven't seen much competitive play at all.

Broodmate Dragon – Pound-for-pound the most efficient finisher for both aggro and control decks. Lorywn block has us spoiled, but once Cryptic Command and Spectral Procession are gone, Broodmate’s going to be very good.

Caldera Hellion – Those in need of a board sweeper still have Pyroclasm and Volcanic Fallout, but Hellion is a total blowout against other aggro decks. You usually kill one or two of your own guys with Fallout anyway, right? Hellion has the potential to wipe the board and leave behind a large beater. Does that sound like the kind of card you’d toss in the Bargain Bin?

Ethersworn Canonist – Another card that just doesn’t stack up against Spectral Procession, Canonist is a Bear with serious upside. The Metagame will ultimately decide if it needs Canonist or not, but if they’re needed, they’ll jump in price.

Goblin Assault – This card wants to be Bitterblossom. It saw play at Nationals in the top 8, and has a powerful effect at what would normally be a reasonable cost. Again, without Bitterblossom in the format, this effect may become viable.

Knight of the White Orchid – People thought the card would be valuable when it came out, but it really only saw play in Reveillark decks. The interaction between Knight and Borderposts is very nice, and the ability to shuffle away an awkward Ponder is useful too.

Master of Etherium – He’s in a theme deck, so unless Esper Aggro becomes the top dog in post-Lorwyn Standard, he’ll stay around 5 dollars. If Esper Aggro turns out to be top-tier, he could see as much as 10. Just keep an eye out for the Metagame shift.

Ranger of Eos – Zendikar spoilers will determine the value of the good Ranger. Losing all the great one=drops from Lorwyn means we’re stuck getting Akrasan Squire and Wild Nacatls. If Zendikar brings some powerful one-drops, Ranger of Eos will rise past the 3-4 dollar mark it’s at right now.

Scourglass –It’s a one-sided Planar Cleansing in most non-mirror games, recurrable, and 2 bucks for a playset.

Tezzeret the Seeker – He’s hovering around 10 dollars, but he has the potential to be the most broken Planeswalker. Artifacts aren’t that good right now, but it only takes one or two minor slip-ups to create something ridiculous like the Vintage Tezzeret decks.

In all, Shards of Alara has a great number of solid cards, but contains nothing heinously under-priced. Caldera Hellion is probably the most under-valued but only because it is so cheap right now. Quite a few playsets can be had for a dollar on Ebay.

The final major event using Lorwyn-Shadowmoor block Standard came to a close in Kansas City this past weekend, and with only a month remaining in this summer’s Standard PTQ season, it’s time to turn our attention to Post-Lorwyn standard. Frankly, the values of Shards block cards are not where they ought to be. Since current deck archetypes are based on cards like Cryptic Command and Spectral Procession, these archetypes are all going to disappear come Zendikar’s October release.

A fresh, clean view is the most important aspect of re-evaluating a set that’s been out for some time. Magic players are notoriously biased when it comes to “good cards” and “bad cards”. How many times has a player won a major event using “bad cards”? Maybe if someone’s winning with them, they’re actually "good" cards. While some cards may be more powerful than others, the line between good and bad is a lot less black and white than most people imagine it to be. We can all agree that Accursed Centaur is far from an All-Star, but there might be a deck out there that can abuse his…ability. It’s not likely, but the fact of the matter is that cards never operate in a vacuum. This means that when re-evaluating Shards of Alara, Conflux and Alara Reborn, we need to look at them as we would a brand new set. Otherwise, our perceptions of card power and synergy will be irreparably tainted by Lorwyn-Shadowmoor.

The first place to look when trying to gauge what cards are potential sleepers is the most recent Block Constructed season. In this case, we only have the samples from PT Honolulu to go with, so let’s start there. Adrian Sullivan can usually be counted on to number crunch every major event, and Honolulu was no exception. The corresponding article can be found here, on Star City Premium. Without reproducing his work verbatim, we’ll just take a look at a few of the numbers he came up with. Looking at the decks that made top 64 more frequently than expected, we see that the following archetypes are all well above average in some capacity.

Naya-Jund Control
G-W Aggro
Sedraxis Aggro
Naya Aggro
Esper Aggro

Something’s very clear here – aggro decks are everywhere! This has a two implications. First, that means that the aggro cards are going to be in high demand at the beginning of the season, when metagames are less developed and usually favor aggro decks. Second, that means that there is room for both Combo and Control in the metagame, and until successful decks in those archetypes are created, the cards for them will be undervalued.

Over the course of the coming week, there will be a series of articles focusing on these archetypes and the cards from Alara Block that deserve a higher price tag. Remember, this is being done without a single piece of information about Zendikar! Any suggestions rendered idiotic or outright wrong by Zendikar’s spoiling should be ignored and forgotten. Tune in and read about how Uril the Miststalker was a $25 card for a period of time, why Open the Vaults is going to be awesome in an aggro deck, and plenty of other speculation about the value of new standard.

Yes, its true! I had the pleasure of spending some time with Evan Erwin this weekend, and on Saturday evening we filmed a bit of Quiet Speculation for this week's Magic Show. Check it out!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpRb9f1ATCE]

Thanks a ton to Evan for taking the time to film this, and we look forward to integrating QS and The Magic Show further in the coming episodes. Sound off in the Comments section about what you might like to see in future episodes.

Wizards is kicking off its new Premium Deck Series today by announcing Premium Deck Series - Slivers. A full 60-card deck showcasing common, uncommon, rare and mythic Slivers from all eras of the game, the Sliver deck will theoretically be playable right out of the box. It goes without saying that this will have wide appeal to Magic players. The almighty Slivers even won a Pro Tour by taking over the brains of Chris Lachmann and Jacob van Lunen! The deck has been confirmed to contain at least 5 Rares and a Mythic.

The set will be released on Nov. 30th with an MSRP of $34.99, and the value is directly related to the question that everyone's been asking. Will this deck contain a Sliver Queen?

No.

Sliver Queen is on the reserved list, and unless this deck is actually a more clever way of saying "we changed the policy", the deck isn't going to have one in it. Had the deck a foil Sliver Queen, it would be a tremendous value at 35 bucks. Sadly, we can pretty much be sure that she's out. It seems like it will still be a fine buy, just not ridiculously under-priced.

The bottom line is that few people buy these sets to keep on their shelves, and they will eventually integrate the cards into the rest of their collection. Since people eventually lose their "keep the set together" mindset, they will be happy to trade their Premium Deck cards to you sooner or later. One thing is for sure: the older Slivers used in EDH will be quite popular...

On the final day of Nationals, Jonathon Loucks of ChannelFireball.com joined me at the Hyatt Regency Crown Center in Kansas City, Missouri. The pieces of his Time Sieve deck were selling well with all of the vendors on-site, so I asked him if he wouldn't mind sharing his thoughts on the rogue deck that took Finland by storm and earned at least one mage a spot in the US Nationals. A pack of Skittles and a Thank You later, we sat down and he laid it all out.



KR: So, what gave you the initial idea for the Time Sieve deck?

JL: I was writing a set review, and while I was writing I was thinking, “What should my next article be about?” I thought Time Sieve might be the most breakable card in Alara Reborn and I decided to write an article about it. I like making lists in my articles, so I searched Gatherer fir all the artifacts in Standard. Kaleidostone and Elsewhere Flask showed up – those are artifacts you really like to sacrifice to Time Sieve, and Chromatic Star was a huge one.

JL: Somehow it evolved into a Howling Mine deck – Etherium Sculptor was a main part of the deck because if you had two of them you could play Kaleidostone and Elsewhere flask for free and just cycle through your deck. The problem was it was, kind of fizzling. You were sacking artifacts and taking more turns and sacking more artifacts, and you were usually going down an artifact every turn, instead of up. You weren’t ever really getting anywhere, so the games where you’d win were usually the games you would go. “Tezzeret, untap, take an extra turn, kill you.” You weren’t really taking a lot of turns. I kind of put the deck on the back shelf, and wrote an article about it.

JL: Then M10 comes out and I need another article, so I ask myself, “what are breakable cards in M10?" I find Open the Vaults and I’m like “That’s definitely the most breakable card in M10!” I made a list and realized, this is the Time Sieve deck! I built the deck, tried it out, and Open the Vaults was just ridiculous. The deck was actually working! You would take extra turns, Open the Vaults to get them all back, draw a bunch of extra cards. Font of Mythos was another piece that was good. The big addition was Time Warp. I was running all these Howling Mines, so taking an extra turn really helped. That’s where the deck started – trying to break Open the Vaults and Time Sieve and it just really took off.

KR: How do you feel about Open the Vaults being played in Esper Aggro once Zendkar Standard is the Metagame? Using Open the Vaults to emulate Patriarch’s Bidding in Goblin-Bidding decks.

JL: Its so funny that you should mention that because in testing for Nationals, I made their deck from block – I made the Kibler Thopter Foundry deck because it could beat Elves with Ethersworn Canonist. I tried it out and I was like, I can’t imagine this deck beating Spectral Procession, so I set it aside.

JL: I was thinking about Open the Vaults like Goblin Bidding and bringing them all back, like Glassdust Hulk? The Glassdust Hulk is in play, Glaze Fiend’s in play? Wow. It’s worth a shot. It’s really funny, I was like, “How do I give Glassdust Hulk haste?” I was searching for Artifacts and Enchantments and I came along Ashling’s Prerogative. You set it to “Odd” so creatures with an odd converted mana cost come into play tapped. All of their elves come into play tapped and all your Glaze Fiends have haste. I don’t think it’s good enough though - it comes back with Open the Vaults but when’s that ever going to be in your graveyard? [That card’s also rotating with Lorwyn-Shadowmoor. –KR]

KR: What was an idea or two that didn’t pan out in testing? Once you had Open the Vaults and Time Warp in the deck, what were some cards where you said, “ This is going to be great!” and then it sucked?

JL: Etherium sculptor was the card in the original deck before Open the Vaults was. It was the engine, it was the best card. As I started playing with the new version, it didn’t seem as useful and Elsewhere Flasks and Kaleidostones were getting cut. Sculptor had a lot of promise in the beginning. Eventually the deck moved more towards Turbo Fog running Pollen Lullaby and Angelsong and the fogs really helped. The version of the deck that had Open the Vaults and Chromatic Star in it were really good, but apparently Chromatic Star’s not in M10. I was really excited about it because it got all these new cards, but Chromatic Star was not one of them. That’s the card I miss most by far.

KR: There are a lot of people playing for an invite over the next month. Would you or would you not recommend this deck for a PTQ as it is right now and/or with minor modifications.

JL: Two weeks ago I probably wouldn’t have recommended it, but then it won Finnish Nationals, and somebody ground in with it here.. There was a lot of it at the grinders! I think the deck’s really hard to play – it felt so when I played it. I stopped developing it when it was pretty rough but I think the deck has promise. I was scared of Maelstrom Pulse from Jund Cascade and I’m scared of Faeries and Five Color. As a Howling Mine deck, I don’t know how you do when giving them extra cards. I don’t know if you can get a Time Sieve through. Mistbind Clique scares me…

KR: Does it seem like it’s in a good position in the Metagame?

JL: If you can figure out how to beat Five Color Control and Faeries. At least you can’t lose to Kithkin. I think you can beat Elves with Ethersworn Canonist out of the sideboard. It’s probably not the best choice but it’s fun!

KR: With the departure of Lorwyn-Shadowmoor, what is the deck going to lose and what is the impact of the losses?

JL: Losing Cryptic Command really hurts! That card's so good for the deck – it bounces things you care about, it counters stuff, and it fogs and draws a card! It’s so good! Losing Cryptic Command is important, but losing the chance of getting matched up with Fae or 5cc is way better. After the rotation I would definitely look at this thing. You lose Pollen Lullaby but there’s always going to be a Fog. You can find a way. You lose Elsewhere Flask but you can work with the Kaleidostones. The engine stays intact. You can always find artifacts to sack but it’s a question of how efficient they are.

KR: You have snuck into WotC R&D; and you are tinkering with Zendikar so it will be favorable to your deck. What’s a card you’d put into in that set, and what’s a card or mechanic you’d pull out?

JL: I’d like a one mana cantripping artifact. It’d just say “draw a card” and that’s it. Losing Chromatic Star really hurt, so they could just reprint it. Cantripping Fog would be awesome, but really efficient artifacts to sacrifice are all you need . A flexible counterspell like Cryptic was, or maybe a Remand or a Memory Lapse would be kind of nice. Sleep is another way you can go with the deck. Boring cards are what I want, but the deck just needs efficient fogs and artifacts. Holy Day was actually a really big loss.

JL: I would remove something like Crptic Command, a really efficient counterspell that can stop my Open the Vaults. It’s funny – I want my Open the Vaults to resolve but I want to counter things too! I’d also say no to more burn spells! I’d love a spell that stops me from losing to Flame Javelin, like a Mark of Asylum for players. We lose Flame Javelin in the rotation, but Bolt coming back is even worse. Cheap burn scares me.

KR: How do you feel about the deck in the future, after Lorwyn and Shadowmoor’s tribal decks are gone?

JL: I would take a hard look at this deck after rotation. Its enemises lose more than it does. There’s going to be a lot of cascade and there will be Lightning Bolts and Ball Lightnings, and of course the white Soldier deck. So, at least you’ll beat the white Soldier decks! If Jund can Bloodbraid Elf into Maelstrom Pulse and hit your Borderposts it’s bad news. It’s probably a tier 2 deck – but it’s something I’d play, because I’d feel comfortable with it. We’ll see what happens with Zendikar but looking at M10, I think it would work.

KR: Where can Quiet Speculation readers read more stuff by Jonathon Loucks?

JL: I write for ChannelFireball.com, over there with LSV, Riki Hayashi, and a bunch of cool people. My column is Rogue Report – Riki Hayashi came up with that one. I usually write about rogue decks. They go up on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Jonathon’s article from this week can be found on ChannelFireball.com Now that Nationals is over, we’ll be trying some new things in the process of changing over to a schedule of publishing. Be sure to leave your feedback, positive or negative, in a comment on each article! I’d like to thank Jonathon Loucks for his time, enthusiasm and his patience with my recording equipment. If anyone has a suggestion for an inexpensive microphone and some good software for a MacBook, it will be welcomed. Keep checking in for more fun stuff from Nationals!

Bonus Section!

I had the utmost pleasure of drafting Evan Erwin's cube in Kansas City this weekend, and Jonathon joined us. He drafted nothing but 2-for-1s and mana fixing and utterly obliterated people with his deck. The play of the night was probably the one that follows.

On the play, to my board of Mountain x2, Kird Ape:

Turn 1: Forest, Mox Emerald, Izzet Signet.

Turn 2: Coalition Relic, Charge Relic, Golgari Rot-Farm.

Turn 3: Nicol Bloas, Freaking Planeswalker right off the top. We realized that it was only 7 mana and he had to wait until next turn to play the 'walker, but at that point there was no way I was coming back from a turn 4 Nicol Bolas either.

Needless to say, I scooped after he started "altering" my mana base.

Hey loyal readers! Heading to Kansas City for Nationals this weekend? Then stop by the Star City Games dealer booth during business hours on Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday and introduce yourself. I (Kelly, the guy who runs this site) will be working the booth for the whole weekend, so don't be a stranger. Updates will be sparse early this week due to having to prepare for the trip, but there will be a steady flow of information from Nationals on Twitter and on the main page. Look for updates each evening, and I'll see you there!

As of today, we'll no longer be posting sporadic updates on the website with price changes (like the 2nd post below this for example). We'll still be doing spotlight articles on cards, doing break-downs of events like pre-releases, PTQs, and Nationals, and Pro events, and all the other content that has made this site popular over the last few months. We're simply moving the factual, in-the-moment card price chatter over to Twitter. You can follow me at http://www.twitter.com/kellyreid. We'll be using the #QSPricewatch hashtag. Here are some samples so you know what to expect.

#QSPricewatch Baneslayer Angel [+] 19.99 (first pre-sales at 7.47, last at 17.49) | Yep. Another one that should come as no shock.

#QSPricewatchGreat Sable Stag [+] 7.49 (5.99) | Sideboard Card Frenzy pre-Nats. Does this tie into the Twilight Mires for Jund theory?

#QSPricewatch Elvish Archdruid [+] 9.99 (5.99, then 7.99) | Raise your hand if you read Quiet Speculation and didn't see this coming.

#QSPricewatch Twilight Mire [+] 7.99 (6.99) | Is BG Elves back? Or is this people playing Jund?

This is being changed to prepare for structured, scheduled updates and articles, similar to what sites like Star City and Channel Fireball are doing. The schedule and the actual nature of the content is still in progress, but reader suggestions for weekly columns are welcome and encouraged. If you want to stay up-to-date on what's going down, follow me on Twitter and you'll know things as soon as I do!

Magic players love saving money. Magic players also love amassing a collection and filling their collection with beautiful foils and unique textless art cards. It seems an act of an injust and cruel god to marry two such desires, as they could be said to be mutually exclusive. Cruel though the fates may be, there exists a way to reconcile this dichotomy. It's name? Magic Player Rewards!

Now, melodrama aside, this is probably old news to most Magic players. For the uninitiated, Magic Player Rewards is a program run by WotC that...get this: rewards its players for playing Magic! They do this in the form of mailings a few times a year which are stuffed with delicious and expensive promotional cards. It's completely free to sign up, and anyone in good standing with the DCI is welcome.

Here's how it works: Every time you play in a sanctioned DCI event, you accrue a point. When they send out the mailings, you'll get a textless promo common or uncommon for every 5 points you have. You'll also get a FOIL textless rare for every 20 points you have. Any un-used points carry over to the next mailing. If you have 27 points when they send the mailings out, you'll get 5 Textless Promos and 1 Textless Foil Rare, leaving you with 2 points towards your next non-foil and 7 points towards your next foil. Note that points aren't "spent" or "used", they're more like mile markers.

Let's say you play in a weekly FNM, and your store hosts a Wednesday night free Standard tournament for store credit. Both are sanctioned DCI events. You'll be earning 8 points a month just doing this. Factor in any larger events like Grand Prix, PTQ's, 5K Opens, and Pre-Releases, and you can see how quickly these points accumulate. Just with regular play, you'll earn a foil rare each time the mailings get sent out. It's not impossible to sometimes get TWO if you play an awful lot.

Considering this is truly free, and is WotC's way of saying "Thanks for playing!", why on earth aren't you a member? Everyone can use 30 bucks worth of free cards a few times a year, so unless you're an MPR member you're not getting full value out of your gaming time! Information on the program can be found here.

Just a few quick Tuesday night notes:

Hallowed Burial is up to 5 dollars on Star City, from 1.50.

Elvish Archdruid is up to 8 dollars, from 6.

Gargoyle Castle is up to 4 dollars, from 2.

Baneslayer Angel is up to 17.50, from 15. (Started at 7 or 8...ridiculous!)

Jace Beleren is down to 10, from 12. (This should be temporary, the market is flooded right now and eventually the demand and the new Mythic rarity should push him to 15 or so)

Those first three should come as no surprise to any readers of this site!