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Insider: QS Cast #76: Yo-Jimbi

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The QS Cast returns! Chaz Volpe, Morgan Wentworth, and Tarkan Dospil come together as the new panel - and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Tarkan is back!
  • Interests
  • 1v1 Commander update/Ixalan discussion/Future Standard

Cards we discussed: (foil versions of Queen Marchesa)



Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG @the_tark

Insider: Diving Into the First Ixalan Spoilers

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Picture yourself sailing the open seas, on constant watch out for pirates. You see an incoming ship and, hoping it won't notice you, turn hard and head straight for that island to your port side. Breathing a sigh of relief, you pull into a hidden cove with a treetop canopy and bring the ship to a stop. Just as your heart rate slows down a bit and you start to relax, giant red-hued dinosaurs jump from the treeline onto the ship and start ripping apart your crew.

The giant beasts chase you and your crew around the ship. Some former friends of yours try to flee into the forest island but you hear their screams in the distance. You manage to avoid being eaten for a while, but just when you think it’s safe to come out, the biggest dinosaur of them all clasps your leg with his enormous sharp teeth. Between screams before you pass out you notice a dark ship pulling into the bay behind behind you. It was a trap all along, and the pirates will most likely loot your ship full of corpses once dinner is finished.

I don't know about you, but that sounds like an amazing setting to me. I know a lot of players aren’t too excited about pirates and dinosaurs, but I’m super pumped! I think both of those things sound amazing and neither has been explored much at all in the Magic universe. Unexplored concepts are mysterious and appealing to me.

Let’s figure out what pirates and dinosaurs will look like together with some Ixalan spoilers!

Jace, Cunning Castaway

I don’t know if the story is posted yet about why Jace has found his way to Ixalan, but the actual card itself has been spoiled. This is a completely new design for Jace and it’s fresh and cool.

Let’s start with the fact that we get another three-mana version of Jace. That’s always a great starting point—the majority of top-tier planeswalkers have cost three or four mana, so checking off this box is a big step in the right direction. It’s not like we need another broken Jace in any format, but let’s see exactly what this iteration has in store for us.

His +1 seems to indicate that blue might be aggressive again in Standard and that’s exciting to me. Generally I’m not a blue mage, unless there's a sweet blue aggro deck in the format like Mono-Blue Devotion. Being able to draw an extra card per turn is obviously powerful, but draw-one-discard-one is almost as good. We could use this to fill our graveyard for some purpose or just to find more gas to press an advantage.

Next up we have a -2 the likes of which has never seen print on a Jace card. This blue planeswalker has always been the mess-with-your-head walker. We’ve had lots of card-draw abilities too, but never a -2 like this that actually makes a guy! I know I’m amped up about a blue planeswalker that makes creatures, but everyone out there might not be reading this with the same excitement.

Consider a sequence like this though. Play Jace and make your 2/2. The drawback of the Illusion getting targeted is basically negligible because nearly any spell that targets will kill a 2/2. So you have your 2/2 and follow up the next two turns with your Merfolk Looter effect as well as whatever else your plan is for your deck. Then the following turn you can make another 2/2. So, every third turn, we get to make a 2/2. Not the best rate by far, but remember this is a blue card. Not every planeswalker can be as amazing as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar at making tokens.

If making guys and drawing cards wasn’t enough for you, you can also make duplicate copies of Jace. If you plus Jace twice, your third activation can be to ultimate and copy him. Again, not the best ultimate by a long shot, but that seems like a great line of play and one I’m excited to build around.

Financially, I think even though he has the name Jace, which makes him automatically appealing, players will underestimate him and what he can do. I think he looks well suited if there are some blue creatures aggressively costed to come down before him. He’s double blue so we’d rather have blue creatures than try to splash him in another main-colored deck.

If Jace, Cunning Castaway ends up being cheaply priced, I think he could bump up after he finds a new strategy to support in Standard. Maybe we could have aggro blue Pirates, or Merfolk again. If so, Jace would pair well with those creatures. Basically, if he’s undervalued, he is a good buy. If his preorder price is $20+ like planeswalkers normally are, wait until he bottoms out to pick him up.

Ripjaw Raptor

I hope we get some more lower cost dinosaurs like Ripjaw Raptor. Although it was way too strong for Standard, something along the lines of Thragtusk to make a solid midrange deck would also be awesome for dinosaurs. Most likely, though, we will have some epic, gigantic monsters with crazy abilities coming for this tribe.

As far as Ripjaw Raptor himself, we have a decently costed four-mana 4/5 that no one wants to block or kill with direct-damage spells. He seems alright, but like a card that would get cut for something else with a bit more bang-for-your-buck. I suspect this guy won't make the cut over other four-drops, but we'll have to see. I like what Wizards is going for with this guy though, and I hope there are more like him that are even better.

Treasure Map

This card is sweet. It seems obvious that Pirates would be searching for their buried treasure, but wow, this is a cool way to do it. Treasures are reminiscent of Clues, but will have a very different play pattern.

Treasure Map, besides being filled with flavor, also lets you scry every turn. Then once you’ve done a few times, you get three Lotus Petals for free! In addition, Treasure Map flips and gives you two great abilities. You can either just use your map for additional mana or start sacrificing your Treasures to draw an extra card per turn. Both of those routes seem great.

Will the three turns of scrying be worth the investment though? That’s the uncertain part. The flavor is there, the payoff is there, will the payment be too much though?

Sleek Schooner

Okay, I know it seems obvious in retrospect, but did you actually expect ships to be Vehicles? I know I did not. I assumed all the jokes about dinosaurs piloting vehicles were directed at Heart of Kiran. Did everyone know about pirate ships being Vehicles beside me?

Anyway, I think making ships vehicles is a cool way to do it. This particular one, Sleek Schooner, won't be breaking Standard anytime soon, but it seems great in Limited. You get a 4/3 for three mana that basically any creature can pilot.

I’m excited to see what other ships will be in this set. I expect some legendary ships to be coming our way and those could be pretty cool. Skysovereign, Consul Flagship was the flavorful mythic Vehicle from Kaladesh, and that one saw significant Standard play. I'll be on the lookout for any similarly pushed legendary ships in Ixalan.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skysovereign, Consul Flagship

Dire Fleet Captain

Dire Fleet Captain is evidence to me that we will have rival pirate gangs. How cool is that?! I know not everyone is into this set, but man, Pirates from multiple color combinations fighting against each other sounds like a blast to me.

Red-black seems to be the Orc clan of Pirates. Rakdos has sported some of the most aggressive decks we’ve seen and Dire Fleet Captain seems to continue that tradition. The most common line of play would be to cast a one-mana Pirate turn one and then follow up with this captain. Then on turn three you are attacking with presumably five power of guys. That’s a pretty good start to an archetype.

Deadeye Plunderers

With Deadeye Plunderers we also have a blue-black clan of Pirates that seems more dedicated to finding and utilizing Treasure. These plunderers seem more like Limited gold than Constructed staples, but still cool nonetheless.

You know who else is a Pirate? Kari Zev, Skyship Raider. That could be financially huge in the coming weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kari Zev, Skyship Raider

We know there are going to be red pirates based on Dire Fleet Captain, and Kari has seen play in Ramunap Red decks. I think that's a recipe for this bulk rare to turn into something real. Pick up a play set or two because they are ridiculously cheap right now and could definitely spike soon.

There is so much awesome stuff going on in this new tribal world of Ixalan, and I'll have much more to discuss next week. If you’re interested, TCGplayer has a pretty extensive list of cards up for presale, so check those out over there. Thanks for reading and click on back over next week for some more previews!

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
MtgJedi on YouTube

Perspective: A Letter and Pro Tour Story

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Last week, I wrote a very personal opinion piece titled “Getting Disillusioned – What Magic Is Missing”. In the article, I put forward my perspective on Modern Magic, how I feel playing the game, and what sort of experience I find myself craving that Magic hasn’t been able to provide for me recently. I received a ton of feedback, and I appreciate all the responses, positive and negative. This week, in response to a comment left on my last article, I am going to tell a story, from the heart, about my Pro Tour experience two summers ago. With the Pro Tour returning to Modern in a few months, a room full of new players will be experiencing the show under the lights for the first time (maybe even you, or someone you know). This is the unfiltered thoughts from someone who’s been there.

Part 1: A Letter to You

Before I jump in, I wanted to set aside a little space for some real talk. These past few weeks have been interesting for me, and I am thankful for the opportunity to present whatever interests me and have readers consider it worthy enough to read. On one hand, I’ve been going through a bit of writer’s block (and player’s block), in the sense that I haven’t felt the fire to write or play Magic like I used to. This happens to all of us (even content creators) and different people deal with it in different ways. Some writers phone it in, or move away from the game entirely, but Magic is too much an integral part of who I am that I find that notion reprehensible.

Instead, I’ve begun to branch out into different styles of writing, as I’m sure you’ve noticed. My bread and butter will always be trend-spotting and sideboard tuning, as my roots are heavily ingrained in the Gerry Thompson school of thought. I’ve seen the comments from some readers remarking on the lack of statistical data analysis, and I understand that desire, but that has never been my area of expertise. Two years ago I was brought on to Nexus by Sheridan as an author that could provide a fresh perspective. I was streaming Magic almost daily back then, and I believe my contributions were valuable because they had personality. In my attempts to provide valuable strategic content and insights, I lost a little of that personality along the way.

Through this last month I’ve rekindled that fire that diminished with time regarding my writing. Everything changes, and I’m not buried in the trends and day-to-day shifts of the Modern metagame as I used to be. I still play, but I play less, and it seems unhelpful to continue to write about event results and metagame analysis week to week if my backend work in that area has diminished. I still plan on providing insights like I used to, but they will be more infrequent, when I have something really valuable to offer.

As readers of our content, every one of you brings your own wishes and desires for the content you want to consume from us here at Nexus, and the same goes for us as writers. Personally, and I’ve never admitted this before, I write (and used to stream) purely for the interaction that comes with it. I crave it. In my mind, my most successful article simultaneously pissed a ton of people off, and singlehandedly forced us to move away from anonymous comments to our current system. There’s nothing more demoralizing for me than writing (or streaming) to an empty room. I can’t help but notice that in these past few weeks, I’ve received more comments in my last three opinion pieces than I have in all my articles combined going back to March. I’m excited about writing again, and based on the number of comments, most of you are excited to read it. I’m curious to hear what you think, but for now, a story.

Part 2: A Blessing and a Curse

I remember my RPTQ win like it was yesterday. Here’s the first article I ever wrote about Magic, over 100 articles later and it’s still my best. Corbin Hosler taught me the value of finding a narrative in your writing—here’s the spotlight he did on me at Pro Tour Magic Origins. My Pro Tour experience will easily go down as Top 5 life experiences when the credits roll, and just talking about it again puts that itch back in my head, to call off work on the weekend and drive through the night to the next big event.

Competitive Magic for me is all about the moments. My first big Magic road trip came in 2012, when I drove through the night to play in Grand Prix Orlando with a family friend. I had just played in my first Grand Prix a couple months before, in Pittsburgh. I equipped a Sword to a Phantasmal Image. Things did not go well.

Thursday I get a text from Stephen, who I grew up watching play cards with my dad at our kitchen table, asking if I’m interested in going to Orlando for the Grand Prix. He lives in Atlanta. I live in North Carolina. #doingit. I have to work, so I get out at 10pm from my serving job, and drive four hours to meet him outside Atlanta, rolling in around 2am Friday morning. Keep in mind he’s been working all day. We drive through the night, pulling into Orlando sometime around lunch Friday, on barely any sleep. Stephen goes right from the drive to a business meeting with a client, and we finally get to the hotel room early afternoon. Stephen collapses on the bed (having been up since Thursday morning), and after about five minutes pops up and says, “ready to play?!” We proceed to grind side events all day in preparation for the main event.

I do surprisingly well in the main event. Delver is my deck (like everyone else), but I’m on maindeck Mental Misstep to punish the mirror and Tempered Steel. I’ve got Craig Wescoe on the ropes in our win-and-in match to make Day Two when he topdecks back to back Hero of Bladehold to steal the win. I’m not crushed. I’m hooked. Three and a half years later and I’m standing in the hall at Pro Tour Magic Origins. Across a throng of competitors I make eye contact with Craig Wescoe, and wonder briefly how many Hero of Bladehold’s he’ll draw today.

At the end of the weekend I finish 8-8. I beat Paul Cheon, I beat Martin Juza. I lost to Stanislav Cifka. I’m not crushed. I’m hooked.

For a competitor, the Pro Tour is the ultimate prize. To play in a tournament you had to qualify for, alongside the best competitors in the world—there’s no way to describe it. The fact that beneath the mystique of coverage, right outside the frame, its just another tournament in another conference hall just makes it even more surreal. Within two rounds, the years-long goal of “get on the Pro Tour” evaporates, to be replaced by “get on the stage.”

Once the novelty wears off, reality starts to set in. After I’m done geeking out over all the pros I recognize, I stop looking at their faces and start looking at what they are doing. In groups of four and five, everyone is huddled around computers, busy updating their scouting lists with information on competitors' decklists. I catch snippets of conversation, tips for matchups and draft strategies that are three levels deeper than what I even thought was possible. I shuffle through my Abzan list, realizing that five drafts with helpful locals and a couple weeks of testing with proxies against a couple friends still leaves me hopelessly outmatched.

I’m not the most skilled player in Magic. I’m not even close. I’m good, and probably only playing at half my potential, but nevertheless, my biggest takeaway from my Pro Tour experience was that I had peaked. I grinded day after day for hours to perfect my RPTQ list and lines, and that work paid off. It got me on the Pro Tour. I kept at it, played tight, and finished 8-8. I went 50% against the best players in the world, working alone for the most part. I showed myself, and others, that I was capable of holding my own against the best of the best. I also showed myself that I couldn’t do any better without serious life changes.

No team, limited time to play and depleted funds for travel. Summer was over, there was no way I could maintain the level of grind it took to make it past the RPTQ level and reach the Pro Tour again. Even if I got there, I had college, a job, and student loan debt to contend with. Two local Grand Prix a year wasn’t going to cut it. I had found my ceiling, and was surprised at my reaction to it. It wasn’t discouragement—more like realization. I did it once, but to do it again, I had to go all-in. If you told me before the Pro Tour that I would go 8-8, be ecstatic with the result, but nevertheless cut back on playing and streaming, I would have told you to get lost. I worked all summer to get partnered, I was streaming to 150+ viewers daily, and I let it go.

It doesn’t add up, I know. It wasn’t laziness, it wasn’t despair. I set a goal, worked hard for it, and accomplished it, but in doing so I realized how unsustainable it really was. I knew that you have to have a team to compete on the Pro Tour level, that you have to dedicate everything you have to get results, but it wasn’t until I was standing in the center of the event hall, watching the teams around me work like gears on a machine, that it finally hit me. I had achieved my dream, but in the process I lost the mystique. The truth was cold, and while I gained an experience I will never forget, I can’t help but notice that I lost a little something too.

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes

Insider: Speculating on Hours of Devastation Online, Part Two

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In part one of this article, I discussed the financial futures for Hour of Devastation's  more expensive rares and mythics. In today's part two, we dig for diamonds in the rough, cards that are below 1.00 tix that I think are worthy of our consideration as speculation targets.

Tiny Stock Uncommons

(1) Supreme Will

As my mother once told me, always eat breakfast, and always set your price alerts early. From August 4 to August 6, Supreme Will was selling between 0.02 and 0.05 tix. That would have been a wonderful time to invest. Supreme Will is a versatile and powerful card that should see significant play in any blue-based control deck. I don't like buying at the current price of 0.26 tix, but if it gets into the low teens, I'll likely take the plunge. Remember that uncommons from small sets tend to have larger sell windows than those from large sets, so Supreme Will is definitely a tiny-stock spec target for those of you who don't micromanage your portfolio.

Recommended buy price: 0.10 tix

(2) Doomfall

Unlike the above cards, Doomfall has a more hazy future. A printing of a two-mana spell like Transgress the Mind would significantly weaken its prospects. But the fact that it exiles means that it can proactively answer the Hour of Devastation Gods that other answers struggle to remove permanently, and the added utility of an edict effect helps justify a CMC of three. I'm willing to bet that this will have a role as an effective sideboard card, in which case Doomfall should see price spikes to 0.30 to 0.50 tix during its Standard lifetime. A worthy speculation I'm hoping to add to my portfolio in the coming days and weeks. (EDIT: I've now bought 62 of them for 0.007 tix a pop)

Recommended buy price: 0.01 tix

(3) Deserts

As this past Standard season proved, each of these lands can find a home in the right deck. Perhaps that is Shefet Dunes in an Oketra's Monument shell. Perhaps that is Hashep Oasis in an R/G Pummeler shell. Perhaps it is Ramunap Ruins in Red Deck Wins. While the market is saturated now, I do think that each of these lands has the potential to settle closer to 0.10 to 0.20 tix, with spikes north of 0.50 tix, once the set's redemption period ends. I'm highest on the Rivulet, Deadlands, and Ruins, and will likely buy any of those I see if they dip down to a penny.

Recommended buy price: 0.01 tix

Rares & Mythics

Hour of Devastation is an interesting set for cheap rares. Usually when cheap rares aren't seeing play, they cost between 0.01 and 0.15 tix. Many of the rares from this set in this category, however, are costing as much as 0.50 tix! This may be because many – like Solemnity, Nimble Obstructionist, Adorned Pouncer, and Pride Sovereign – lurk just beneath the surface of Standard playability. They are like the D-Leaguers who are all itching to get a shot to play in the NBA, and I think the market feels that and feels that some of these cards will get a chance to shine once four sets leave Standard in a month.

I think the financial truth of the matter is that few of these cards will "break out" in such a way that enables you, the speculator, to actualize a high return. For example, Adorned Pouncer costs 0.21 tix now. Do I think that card is undervalued? Absolutely. The card feels like a 0.50 tix card. Do I want to tie up capital in the hopes that it one day spikes to...1.00 tix? Not really. Interestingly, three of these rares – Solemnity, Ramunap Excavator, and Nimble Obstructionist – all could become competitive staples depending upon what cards Wizards pumps into Standard in the coming two years. That makes these three more appealing than the others that are fluctuating between 0.20 and 0.75 tix. I'm most intrigued by Solemnity as a spec target at 0.25 to 0.35 tix, and I'm somewhat intrigued by Ramunap Excavator if it dips below 0.15 tix.

One card I like is Grind // Dust. I believe it is very powerful and a card I believe could see play in future Standard seasons because it is a removal spell that is fairly costed, flexible in its payment schedule, and scales well into the late game. Two things hold this card back. First is that it is multicolor. Second is that, as with all removal, being sorcery speed is a significant drawback. Given that this is a rare in a small set, and given that I think this card has a good chance of seeing more play than many other cards presently holding higher values than it, I like it as a speculation target. I've managed to buy a few copies for 0.01 tix, but I may have to buy some at 0.02 tix if I'm to acquire a sizable number of them. Don't invest above 0.03 tix – you'll be able to get them lower.

In the first draft of this article I discussed Hour of Glory as a speculation target. But now that Vraska's Contempt has been revealed, its price should be as volatile as the heart rate of a cadaver.

Two green tiny stock rares that have piqued my curiosity are Rhonas's Last Stand and Resilient Khenra. Resilient Khenra and Adorned Pouncer are so similar, except one is nearing the MTGO bulk bins while the other is maintaining a value between 0.20 and 0.30 tix. Resilient Khenra seems like a good fit in R/G Pummeler, and has built-in card advantage that often proves so valuable in Constructed. Rhonas's Last Stand is a riskier spec, very heavily dependent on whether a Green Stompy archetype emerges over the next few years. I like speculating on both at 0.01 tix, and the Khenra I might even be willing to pay 0.02 tix.

Saffron Olive Favorites

For the blissfully unaware, Saffron Olive is one of Magic's biggest personalities who often makes fun, semi-competitive brews that become popular on MTGO. Many content writers have created a term for the phenomenon of cards spiking in value when Saffron Olive builds them as the "Saffron Olive effect." Case in point is Part the Waterveil, which saw multiple price spikes due to Saffron Olive videos.

Fraying Sanity, Overwhelming Splendor and Torment of Hailfire are all cards I could see Saffron Olive use multiple times during the next few years as cornerstone cards in his brews. The Saffron Olive favorites to spec on, in my opinion, are the ones that are natively quite powerful and could potentially belong to a successful rogue brew. Cards spike when he goes 4-1 or 5-0, less so if he goes 1-4 or 2-3.

Part the Waterveil was not just a part of many of his brews, but many of his successful brews.  The one that intrigues me the most is Fraying Sanity. We already have Fraying Sanity and Ipnu Rivulet for Standard, and the card has a lot of intrinsic power. I'm not entirely sure at what price point to buy, and this one is unique in that I don't think there's a real impetus to invest in it now because the dynamic at play isn't based upon the investment strategy that informs this article. I think I'd enthusiastically buy copies at 0.05 tix, and tepidly buy copies between 0.06 and 0.10 tix. Overwhelming Splendor has more in common with Part the Waterveil in that it can fit into many different styles of deck. I'd like to see it drop to 0.25 tix before buying about ten to twenty copies, but I definitely recommend putting it on your radar screens. It might be more likely to fall in price after redemption ends in November.

Signing Off

Next week, I'll conclude my series on the speculation opportunities that the impending rotation presents us. Starting with this signoff, I'll be posting a link to an Excel copy of my MTGO Investment Portfolio. In September, I'll write an article explaining why I keep the portfolio the way I do and how it helps me invest, and I'll take that article as an opportunity to also answer one of the questions posed to me in the QS Forums: "How do you know when to sell? How do you know at what price a card is going to peak? Etc. etc..."

Below is the fourth charm of my cycle, inspired by one of my favorite literary figures, Prometheus. Enjoy, and I'll be back next week!

Insider: Selling Cards – Best Practices and Pitfalls

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If you don't choose to buylist cards you have a number of different options to get the "most for your cards." Sometimes it's efficient to sell on aggregate sites like TCGplayer, MKM, and eBay. Sometimes you have something odd or highly desirable and would rather sell on social media.

Whatever the case is, there are a lot of things I see people do that actively thwart their own ability to sell their cards. This week I want to talk about the biggest problems I see regularly.

Sorting and Grading

The first and biggest issue I see is grading. The first step in any attempt to sell cards is to make sure you know exactly what you have. Make sure you cards are sorted accurately and you know what their grade is. The best advice I can offer you is to grade once and then write it on a sleeve and put the card inside. I've had issues personally where I've graded a large group of cards and then forgot which ones were the played ones.

Make sure you also know what set they're from. Players covet some sets over others and they can look very similar despite not being the same. The biggest problem I see is when sellers try to figure out what set an older card is from.

These two cards have the same set symbol but they are not from the same set. Knowing the difference between a Legends card and a Chronicles card is imperative. You will have a lot of mad customers if you try to sell them a Chronicles card when they order a Legends card.

 

All of these are also from different sets. Do you know which ones are which? Make sure you do before you start listing anything. These cards are (from left to right) Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Revised duals.

You may be wondering why I didn't use an Alpha Volcanic Island. That was to demonstrate a point about making sure you know what you're selling. There are no Alpha Volcanic Islands. That card was accidentally left off the Alpha sheet (along with Circle of Protection: Black) so there is no possibility you could own one. If you have one that looks like it's from Alpha (due to rounded corners) then you need to check if it's fake or purposely cut that way (and thus damaged).

Another thing to pay attention to: when selling foreign cards, make sure you know what language they're in. It's not terribly difficult to get Spanish and Portuguese cards mixed up if you don't speak either language. Similarly, Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese look very similar but are not the same to the players that value that language.

Competitive Pricing

The most common factor that prevents people from successfully selling cards is pricing. In my experience, a lot of players don't need to buy your cards. A lot of them are just impulse-buying when they perceive to have found something at a good price. If you're selling on TCGplayer, eBay, or MKM, you can easily figure out what the cheapest copy of a card is and list yours for a lower price.

I would strongly recommend this, but make sure it's only by a tiny amount. The reality of online buying is that if your card is cheaper it will show up closest to the top of the list. If it's $0.01 less or $1.00 less it doesn't matter. If someone wants the cheapest copy they will buy yours. What that ends up meaning is that if you undercut the next seller by more than $0.01 you're almost certainly costing yourself money. Due to fees and shipping you want to try to avoid that to maximize your profit.

Sometimes it's also important to realize that after fees you may actually be losing money compared to buylisting. Make sure you do the math on your pricing and use Trader Tools to quickly figure out if it's better to just buylist. Ultimately your time is worth something, and listing something for maybe $0.10 more is probably not worth it.

If you choose to sell on social media (usually through a Facebook group), make sure your price is competitive to other items available, and also make sure it's less than what you can buy it from on aggregate sites. If a card is $20 on TCGplayer you can afford to entice someone by selling it for $18 because after fees you're probably going to lose $2-3 to TCGplayer in fees anyway.

The last piece of this puzzle is selling things that you can't find a price for. What is a foil Russian Polluted Delta worth? Yeah, you can probably find a listing of it somewhere but what is it worth? What will someone pay for it?

Rarities and oddities are the hardest types of things to sell and require the most bartering to get a good deal. At the end of the day you will need to figure out what it's worth to you and settle on a price with a buyer. Ultimately, nobody can tell you what something is worth as it's only worth as much as someone is willing to pay.

Take a Good Picture

While this doesn't apply to every scenario, if you're selling in a place where you can post a picture, it is worth so much. The phrase "a picture is worth a thousand words" is very cliché but also very true. The thing that will get people to stop on your post most often is a good picture of a card. To use a bad fishing analogy, the picture is the bait and the price is the hook. Once you've got them to look at both, all you have to do is reel them in.

There are a ton of things I see people doing frequently that detract from their photos. You don't have to be an awesome photographer, but you can put a little bit of effort in to get a good result. I try to follow these guidelines:

Take a photo of only the cards you're selling. This seems like a pretty clear thing to do but there can be a lot of randomly distracting things in your picture that take away from the product you're trying to sell. My suggestion would to be to line up the cards you wish to sell on a clean surface like a table. Remove anything that isn't part of the sale from the picture. This includes, but is not limited, to dice, tokens, decks, binders, etc.

Take a picture as close to the cards as possible. If people can't identify what you're selling then they're not going to be interested in the product you have available. If you're trying to sell a judge foil Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, take a close up so people know it's not in English. If it's foil, make sure to remove sleeves and let it shine. You want to make sure someone quickly scrolling past your post has a reason to stop. Tiny pictures of white cards that you're not sure are even Elesh Norn is not a good way to get noticed.

Make sure you can read the cards. The biggest offender here is glare. If you're taking a picture, make sure the light source is behind you. You don't need an expensive Canon SLR camera to take a picture that lets people read what's on the card. Make sure to focus and reposition yourself or the cards to avoid glare. Most people have a camera on their phone and this should be sufficient for a readable picture. If you find yourself unable to get a good one, borrow a friend's.

If the condition is questionable, scan it. This applies mostly to older cards but the best way to avoid any conflict in grading is to provide a scan of the card. While it's not always easy to procure one, it is invaluable for some people. The peace of mind knowing exactly how damaged or mint the card is important for getting it sold. I would recommend two pictures for each card you decide to scan (one of the front and one of the back).

Wrapping It Up

Hopefully this advice can be of good use to you. I think I have identified most of the most common pitfalls when selling cards. I have been using these ideas personally to increase my sales success and have made many great customer relationships. If you're a veteran to the sales game and know all this already, is there anything I missed? Please leave your thoughts in the comments below!

Control Decks in Modern: Exploring the Variations in Viable Archetypes

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For a long time, control decks in Modern have struggled to gain some inkling of viability. Considering the huge breadth and diversity of Modern, a deck composed of all answers has be tuned just right for the current metagame. While this is already quite the lofty task, the next step is near impossible—getting pairings to match that expected metagame. Modern does have a relatively established list of Tier 1 decks that are consistently performing better than the other options. However, time and time again, people will play what they want to play in Modern, which has implications for the control deck.

Whether it be because they love their deck, don't have the ability to switch, or don't follow the metagame closely enough, some people will always play their Modern deck, no matter the circumstances. While the degree to which this is the case varies, you will encounter it whether you are attending a local event, an SCG Open, or a GP. Having some number of byes at a large event can somewhat change the equation. When metagaming, earlier rounds in any given tournament are more likely to contain matchups you aren't prepared for. However, having byes doesn't give you a ticket to avoiding the outliers; even in round 3, 4, or beyond, you can easily be playing against something far outside the expected metagame. This makes it quite difficult to construct a good control deck in Modern — you never really know what you are going to be seated across from in any given tournament.

Even through all of this, control archetypes have persisted through the last few years, largely due to the same tenet I just described—people will play what they want. In recent months however, the place of control in the meta has solidified somewhat, with decks like UW Control and Jeskai rising closer to the top (if not the top itself). Given these circumstances I wanted to take the opportunity to explore the different control options in the format and why I may prefer one over the others (spoiler alert: it's still UW).

The Outliers

Esper Control is certainly a fan favorite. When people think of "true" control, this is likely where their mind might wander. Tons of instant-speed options, often threat-light and answer-heavy. Frankly, who doesn't love casting an Esper Charm? Often these lists will sit back, eventually cast a Sphinx's Revelation at the end of their opponent's turn, and finally finish them off with something like a Secure the Wastes. All in all, a true "draw-go" game plan.

Esper Control, by lejonss0n (5-0, MTGO Competitive League)

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
4 Esper Charm
3 Fatal Push
3 Logic Knot
2 Path to Exile
1 Negate
1 Secure the Wastes
2 Sphinx's Revelation
4 Think Twice

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Supreme Verdict

Lands

3 Celestial Colonnade
3 Drowned Catacomb
4 Flooded Strand
3 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Plains
4 Polluted Delta
1 Swamp
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

3 Engineered Explosives
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Gideon Jura
2 Negate
1 Path to Exile
1 Runed Halo
3 Timely Reinforcements
3 Thoughtseize

This type of list struggles the most with the issues that I have laid out already. Being that it is almost entirely composed of answers, you can easily find yourself in a matchup that you aren't really prepared for. Traditionally, decklists like these can have a difficult time against some combo decks and especially the big-mana decks. As always, you can tune your list to help in any given matchup, but those styles will be the ones Esper will flail against, even with some specific tuning.

Out of all of the available control decks in Modern, Esper is my least favorite. While I enjoy playing draw-go, Modern is not the right format to be metagaming to answer every threat that every opponent will present for 15+ rounds. Certainly it is still viable, but I believe it will struggle more than the other available archetypes.

The "Strictly" Worse

Grixis Control has largely faded into the background of late due to the popularity and similarity of Grixis Death Shadow. It has the same package of Tasigur, the Golden Fang/Gurmag Angler (the split varies) and a removal suite including Fatal Push and Terminate. Obviously the biggest difference (and the easiest place to draw the line between the two archetypes) is the inclusion of Cryptic Command, and the exclusion of Death's Shadow.

Grixis Control, by Billy McCurdy (1st, SCG Modern IQ Glassboro)

Creatures

3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
1 Go For the Throat
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Negate
2 Spell Snare
3 Terminate
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

4 Ancestral Vision
4 Serum Visions

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
3 Creeping Tar Pit
3 Island
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Collective Brutality
2 Damnation
1 Dispel
2 Dragon's Claw
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Sun Droplet
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Terminate

I'll be blunt—I don't think there is much reason to play Grixis Control over the Death Shadow variant at the moment. Removing some proactive elements from the well-oiled machine that is GDS to add reactive cards like Cryptic Command or Spell Snare weakens the strategy overall in most situations. It is possible that this change may benefit the archetype in particular matchups. That said, I can honestly not think of a matchup where that would be the case. Fortunately, Modern is a pretty wide format, so there has to be at least one... right?

When comparing Grixis Control to Epser, I do like the presence of delve threats that Grixis lists often employ, especially alongside Snapcaster Mage and Lightning Bolt. It can close games out more quickly and has an easier time being proactive when necessary. I think it may be slightly better than Esper, but not by a significant margin. If I ever feel tempted to sleeve up some Kolaghan's Commands, I'm sticking with Death's Shadow.

The Frontrunners

Jeskai Control is perhaps the least "controlling" deck on the list. These decks often employ more tempo elements than control elements, although it can vary. The addition of red to a UW shell gives access to many burn-based removal spells in Lightning Bolt, Lighting Helix, and Electrolyze. Add Snapcaster, Spell Quller, and even potentially Geist of Saint Traft to the mix, and suddenly it is very easy to turn the corner in any given game. Control elements are still present but they are almost entirely instant-speed. These lists will typically have fewer Supreme Verdicts and instead lean on additional counterspells, as well as their ability to quickly close out games.

Jeskai Control, by Jonathan Rosum (5th, SCG Modern Open Richmond)

Creatures

4 Spell Queller
3 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
3 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
3 Logic Knot
4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Anger of the Gods
1 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dispel
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Wear // Tear

I really like the construction of this list. Similar to Esper lists, Jeskai's ability to play almost entirely at instant speed is a huge advantage. It makes your counterspells that much better when you rarely are doing much of anything on your own mainphase. Tapping out for things like Supreme Verdict or a planeswalker can easily get you in trouble when your opponent untaps with your shields down. Jeskai makes up for its lack of additional Verdicts with its ability to close games with Queller, Snapcaster, and a flurry of burn. Since being printed, Queller has been a wonderful addition to the archetype, giving access to another pseudo-counterspell that also functions as a tempo threat. In that regard, it fills a similar role to Snapcaster Mage.

I think Jeskai is a very reasonable choice in Modern. Having a proactive plan that you can rely on against nearly every deck in the format is a huge advantage. What better plan than throwing a bunch of burn in your opponent's direction? In my opinion, that is what makes it more viable than both Grixis and Esper: it's buttery-smooth instant-speed game plan coupled with the ability to turn on a dime against any strategy. The versatility of this game plan and the fluid nature of Jeskai's role assessment are phenomenal assets when played well.

The Favorite

Ah, I've saved the best for last (at least for me): UW Control. UW is closer to Esper than the others in the regard that it is a "true" control deck. It is playing for the late, late, LATE game and rarely looking to pressure the opponent early. However, while similar in that regard, the two decks are quite different overall. UW trades an instant-speed game plan for what is largely a tap-out control plan. You'll see UW lists playing fewer Cryptics and Snapcasters than other control archetypes. They will instead be replaced with things like more planeswalkers and sorcery-speed cantrips.

UW Control, by Ryland Taliaferro (34th, SCG Modern Open)

Creatures

2 Wall of Omens
2 Snapcaster Mage

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere
4 Spreading Seas

Instants

3 Cryptic Command
2 Mana Leak
1 Negate
4 Path to Exile
1 Sphinx's Revelation
1 Supreme Will
1 Think Twice

Planeswalkers

1 Gideon Jura
2 Gideon of the Trials
1 Jace, Architect of Thought

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Supreme Verdict

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
2 Ghost Quarter
3 Glacial Fortress
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Irrigated Farmland
5 Island
3 Plains
2 Tectonic Edge
1 Temple of Enlightenment

Sideboard

1 Blessed Alliance
2 Dispel
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Negate
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Timely Reinforcements
1 Vendilion Clique

Now I'm a little biased towards this particular list but this deck is an absolute delight to play. It is far more proactive than traditional control strategies. As such, it has better game against big-mana decks than any other control deck I have ever played in Modern. The coupling of Spreading Seas with Ghost Quarter and Tectonic Edge can help an outstanding amount against any Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle strategy or Tron deck.

Why UW?

Truly I do not want to undersell this point: the land destruction package showcased here is the true power of this archetype. Ghost Quarter is often a Strip Mine without much effort, and don't get me started on Spreading Seas. Not only does it cantrip, but it has good targets in nearly every matchup. Take the most extreme example: the mono-colored decks. Mono-White Death and Taxes is playing Horizon Canopy, Tectonic Edge, Ghost Quarter, and Cavern of Souls; all of which are situationally good targets. Even Merfolk has troublesome Mutavaults! I'm forced to admit that there are places Spreading Seas isn't great, UR Storm being the best example. However, that is rare and even in those cases all you are stuck with is a mildly awkward cantrip.

Speaking of cantrips—this deck has a lot of them. Most of the cards are either lands (love those) or cards that have some (ir)relevant text that ends or begins in draw a card (love that part). I often joke with my viewers that all I ever want to do when playing this deck is hit land drops and draw cards; there is some real truth to that. This deck has some incredible consistency and the obscene number of cantrips is a big part of pulling it all together. The sheer number of cards you go through allows you to mulligan very infrequently, which is a huge boon to consistency in and of itself. Most hands that have between 2-5 lands are keepable partially because of those cantrips.

On a related note, the manabase contributes to that consistency as well. Being a two-color deck opens up a world of advantages. You take far less damage from your manabase than any of the three-color counterparts, which can lend you percentage points against Burn. In addition, the basic lands help insulate you somewhat from Blood Moon. I've already mentioned the ability of the utility lands to disrupt the opponent's gameplan, but have yet to explore how it smooths out our own. Twenty-six-land decks may be prone to flooding, but this deck plays well with flood. Ghost Quarter and Tec Edge are often better than a spell and will function as such. On top of that you have Temple of Enlightenment and Irrigated Farmland to help mitigate flooding. Even if you do find yourself flooding, you have Celestial Colonnade to give you something to do with all that mana! At first glance, a five-land opener may look unkeepable, but on second inspection you may realize you have a GQ, a Colonnade, and a Farmland. Suddenly, that hand doesn't sound so bad! Whether or not such a hand would actually be a keep is dependent on a lot of factors, but the point remains that the utility lands provide access to a wider range of keepable hands.

Moving Forward

In case it somehow wasn't abundantly clear, UW is the pick for me. I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for choosing Jeskai over it—I think both are reasonable decks. They both have access to a somewhat proactive game plan when required, land destruction for UW and the burn plan for Jeskai. These plans have game against nearly every deck in the format because they attack one of two primary game concepts: mana or life total. In most cases, you won't win the game if you can't cast your spells, and uh, well, you aren't going to win the game if you're at 0! (But Phyrexian Unlife and Gideon of the Trials! Yeah, sure... you got me.)

The place where I fall in love with UW over Jeskai is in the consistency department. In my experience UW mulligans less often, especially below six, and struggles less after mulliganing. Draws are often less clunky than Jeskai and your cards generate more value on average. I think some amount of my bias can be chalked up to personal preference, but frankly I don't dislike how Jeskai plays.

It is definitely important to mention, however, that the meta has shifted in a way that is not ideal for UW. Some of the worst matchups are getting more popular, namely Storm, and some of the best matchups are fading a bit, particularly Death's Shadow. Even with that said, if I'm sleeving up a control strategy any time soon, I'm likely to stick with UW.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for August 30th, 2017

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of August 28, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although both Aether Revolt (AER) and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

Standard

Another week and another sea of red for Standard sets on MTGO. Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) led the pack with a 26-percent decline, with Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) close behind at 23 percent down. With prices in free fall, it's easy to get an itchy trigger finger and start buying, but from a full-set perspective, this is a mistake.

This week, I was reviewing what I was doing at this time last year, and you'll see that I purchased a lone set of Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) for 56 tix at the end of August. This is a good example of being tempted by falling prices. With all the Modern staples in DTK such as Collected Company and Kolaghan's Command, I though that DTK was getting close to a price bottom. As you can see from the chart below, DTK still had weeks of declining prices ahead of it before it bottomed at about 35 tix.

The punchline, though, is that I still ended up selling that set for a profit a few months later. My timing was awful, but the trade was a profitable one, so this year I am being more patient as prices on rotating sets decline heading into September. With that in mind, the downtrends for SOI and BFZ look to be firmly in place, and there's at least two weeks to go before we can expect a price a bottom to emerge. The majority of the decline is already priced in, but waiting for the release of Ixalan (XLN) and fall rotation is still prudent on these two large sets. There will still be opportunity at different times on singles, but keep your powder dry on full-set purchases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tithe

Historically, small sets have not been a great strategy due to the redemption fee of $25. Having fewer cards means that the redemption fee is spread out over fewer rares and mythic rares, which makes it less worthwhile to redeem cards. Essentially, the redemption fee acts as a prohibitive tax on small sets. Have a look at the chart below and how the price of recent small sets has acted in and around rotation.

The poster children for avoiding small sets are Fate Reforged (FRF) and Born of the Gods (BNG). Both saw declining prices in advance of rotation, but did not experience a large rebound in price afterward. On the other hand, Journey into Nyx (JOU) saw a steep decline from over 100 tix all the way down to below 50 tix, before rallying again in the weeks after rotation. The question at hand, then, is whether or not OGW and Eldritch Moon (EMN) are similar to JOU, or are they more like BNG and FRF?

Looking at the chart, the two small sets rotating out of Standard are on a similar price path when compared to JOU. Both were in and around 100 tix and both are in the process of a steep decline as week zero of rotation nears.

Next, OGW and EMN are not like previous small sets. BNG, JOU and FRF all have 35 rares and 10 mythic rares. EMN has 47 rares and 14 mythic rares and OGW has 42 rares and 12 mythic rares (the flip cards in EMN make these numbers different). This means that the redemption fee is being spread out over a higher number of cards than small sets of the past; OGW and EMN are more like a large set than a small set in this way.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giant Growth

Thus, the opportunity is clear. There are four sets rotating out of Standard, and each of them will be attractive to redeemers. The time to start buying is getting close, but we are still a few weeks away from where set prices historically bottom out. This is the time to be selling down positions and building up tix. The only positions I really want to be in are Standard-related specs and tix. Having a large amount of my portfolio in tix means that I'll be able to take advantage on the pending sales as Standard rotates.

Modern

In the age of treasure chests on MTGO, it is no longer safe to be holding positions in Modern staples for the long term. The steady supply of singles spilling out of treasure chests means that a long term position suffers from a steady drip of supply. Only cards that are in decks that are growing in terms of metagame share will get long term price support as players adopt the new deck and buy the cards they need.

With that in mind, it's absolutely correct to be a seller of any and all Modern positions in the next two weeks. Once XLN hits, all eyes will be on Standard and Modern prices will be declining as a result. At that time, it will be too late to try and salvage tix from your Modern positions. I've been a heavy seller of all things Modern-related in the portfolio over the past couple of weeks. As detailed in the Standard section, the opportunity on the rotating sets is coming and the opportunity cost of holding Modern positions is getting larger by the day.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Daybreak Coronet

Outside of cards you need to play with, holding Modern cards heading into September is a mistake in terms of portfolio allocation. You'll be much better off getting into tix and then deploying into the rotating sets or into other Modern staples that end up on sale in October. Consider the next two weeks to be the best short-term selling opportunity for Modern cards.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I took the plunge on a large position in The Scarab God from Hour of Devastation (HOU). This appears to be the most powerful Standard card in the set, and the market is still coming to grips with this reality. On top of that, we are near the end of the Amonkhet (AKH) block draft window, so the supply of any and all HOU and AKH cards is going to be slowing down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Scarab God

Obviously it's impossible to predict the future of Standard, but the most powerful cards in a set typically go on to reach much higher prices after they are no longer being opened in Draft. This card has also been slotting into Temur Energy builds as a way to fight the mirror, and with Temur Energy looking to be an intact archetype heading into rotation, the chances on this God continuing to see play are high.

If this turns out to be a failed speculative pick, then I will be looking to exit this position before the end of HOU redemption in November. Up to that time, redemption will support the price of this card even if the Standard metagame does not.

Insider: QS Cast #75: Jack-es Le Vert

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[note]: Sorry for this cast being delayed, I was not feeling well for a few days. Thanks for the support and patience. Enjoy!

The QS Cast returns! Chaz Volpe, Morgan Wentworth, and Tarkan Dospil come together as the new panel - and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Sigmund Ausfresser and Stu Somers (@ssomers55)  joins the cast!
  • Interests
  • RL Discussion/Alpha + Beta/New trends

Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter: @ssomers55 @sigfig8 @ChazVMTG @the_tark

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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“No Changes” – Reactions to the Banlist Announcement

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It is inevitable. Every time a new Banned and Restricted Announcement comes out, speculation runs rampant. Everyone has their pet cards to advocate for or against, everyone is utterly convinced they're right, and they take offense to disagreement. Every single time. It's really tiring. I've written about this problem before. I have no problem discussing possible B&R changes as long as it's informative and civil. This is usually not the case. As previously mentioned, many players refuse to abandon their pet cards regardless of arguments presented or contrary evidence. This is why Sheridan started actually testing banned cards and I've kept it going. Evidence-based discussion is good. Speculation is unhelpful.

This is especially frustrating for me because Wizards surprised everyone again by making no changes to everything but Vintage. The last time I was this blindsided by a B&R update was when Splinter Twin was banned. Not that this is a bad thing. I had resigned myself that the anti-Death's Shadow crowd were going to get their way. It appeared overwhelming—LSV and other pros were calling for it, Shadow had been on top for months, and it had good (though not spectacular) showings during the Modern GP weekend.

The available evidence was going the banning crowd's way. I figured it was inevitable but that wasn't the case, and I'm pleased it wasn't. Hopefully now we can move on and discuss the far more interesting changes that followed the B&R on Monday.

Don't Fix What Isn't Broken

It is very frustrating when Wizards only comments on the changes they make. I know why they don't explain the non-changes (time constraints and process integrity are very real things), I just wish it wasn't the case. We've gotten their thoughts on "No Changes" a few times but I'd like it to be a regular feature. It would be nice to know their reasoning for no changes, since "We think everything is fine" is very, very different from "We need more data." As such, I'm left to speculate, analyze, and extrapolate about their decision-making. Keep that in mind for the rest of this section.

The key to this decision is Wizards' information monopoly. Now, Wizards has always had an information advantage over players. They make the game and run MTGO and the DCI. They can see any and all data they want about any metagame at any time, and have said several times that's exactly what they do. And this is fine—they need that data to make the game better. It is also fine that they don't make all that data public. Trade secrets are a real thing, as is fear of data mining killing formats. Arguably, the ultimate problem with the last few Standards was they got solved too quickly. What makes it annoying is that they know better than we do if the format is actually healthy.

The controversial announcement that MTGO would only report five 5-0 decklists per day halved our data. MTGO data has always been somewhat suspect and our metagame calculations reflected this fact. However, it was still our most consistent source of raw data on the metagame. Lacking this source makes actual data analysis problematic, especially during droughts of paper events. Wizards doesn't have this problem. Therefore, they will know with certainty if there's a diversity-harming warp while we can at best make educated guesses. In other words, we only think we know. Wizards actually knows. And they made a decision in line with this knowledge.

What We Do Know

The thing is, everyone should have been able to come to the same conclusion. I know I've said that the pro-Death's Shadow-ban crowd was getting the evidence on their side to make their case, but I never thought it was that strong. The evidence of oppression just wasn't there. The metagame has been trending away from Death's Shadow and Eldrazi Tron for at least the past two months. They're still very good decks, but their metagame share have been trending downwards.

Now, some of that is definitely artificial, with Wizards preferring not to release multiple copies of the same deck in their 5-0 League postings, but you could also see this in paper events.  Eldrazi Tron closed out the finals at SCG Syracuse before failing to make Top 8 in both São Paulo or Birmingham. Grixis Death's Shadow's best high-profile result was second at SCG Richmond. Those are good results, but they're not exceptional. Yes, both show up in the Top 8s and Top 16s, but that's what you would expect from any Tier 1 deck, like Affinity. Had Shadow or Tron decks been winning events consistently, this would be a very different conversation.

What this strongly suggests is not only that Modern can handle Shadow, but that it has already done so. Back in May and June Shadow was everywhere and appeared to be unstoppable. Then along came Death and Taxes to spoil the party. Then the Shadow decks adjusted and DnT disappeared again, but in that hiccup everyone saw that the deck was very vulnerable. Strategies evolved, players learned how to adapt to the deck and its metagame share began to fall. Where once it appeared that Shadow was redefining Modern, it appears that all it's done is redefine midrange in a way that lets control back into the format. Once Bloodbraid Elf and Deathrite Shaman were gone, Jund hung around for years without causing problems. It appears that Shadow has taken over that job and created a new metagame. Therefore, nothing needed to go.

The Unbans Issue

The "Ban It!" crowd really should have seen Monday coming, and it appears based on a glance around the internet that most players did. However, the "Unban It!" crowd is once again disappointed. They shouldn't be, but they are. Again. And I'm not surprised. Unbans are not something to take lightly. I don't care how much you want to play with your pet card or how unjust its banning is(n't), there is a sizable risk to removing anything from the banned list. Wizards is not going to do anything on a whim, and if the metagame is good now, why should they shake things up? If everything is fine, don't risk breaking it.

I know that players will point to the successful unbannings of Bitterblossom and Sword of the Meek as reasons to unban more cards. I will counter that unbanning Golgari Grave-Troll was a mistake, and should have been a predictable one for Wizards. They knew what was coming in Shadows over Innistrad and Kaladesh and should have seen what they would do to Dredge (I have no proof, but I strongly believe that the unbanning was a marketing move to show off the new cards in Modern). However, that's rather dismissive. My real question is "Are you sure?"

See, at this point there are very few cards from the original, speculative banned list left. Most of the current list has had its time in Modern, and proved problematic. Of that original crew, we have obviously busted stuff like Hypergenesis and Dread Return, Legacy staples in Jace and Stoneforge Mystic, and the artifact lands. Bitterblossom was king in Standard and a prince of Extended, but Magic was a very different game in 2014 (when it was unbanned) than 2008. The same is true of Sword of the Meek. Great for its time, but now answers exist. The cards still on the list are just as potent now as they were then. Does Wizards want to take that risk? Whether or not they should is the whole purpose of my Banlist Testing series.

Regardless of personal opinion, there was no evidence that anything needed to happen in Monday's announcement. The format has adapted to the changes and appears to be thriving, meaning no bans are required. Diversity is high, Modern is more popular than ever, and there have been plenty of new decks and innovations, so there's no reason to run any risks and shake things up with an unban. Is everybody clear on that? Great! Let's move onto something much more interesting that also came out Monday.

Legendary Planeswalkers!

That was already true of Jace, the Mind Sculptor but now it applies to everyone. Ixalan will do away with the planeswalker uniqueness rule. "What is that?" most of you are asking. Something that only recently started to affect Modern, I answer. And then proceed to give a non-snarky, actually helpful answer.

Right now you can only have one planeswalker of any type under your control. Planeswalker type is the walker's first name. Most of the time this is irrelevant, especially in the older formats. Planeswalkers consistently define Standard, but most make no impression on Modern, and only JtMS and Liliana of the Veil see wide play in Legacy and beyond. As a result, you really didn't have any reason to play more than one version of a planeswalker, so this special version of the legendary rule never came up.

However, that changed recently. Liliana the Last Hope is a very powerful card and directly competes with Liliana of the Veil. They're very different cards but both at home in midrange black decks. You would expect there would be a split between them in midrange maindecks. You would (mostly) be wrong. There were a number of reasons, but a really subtle one was that you could never have both in play a the same time. This was a huge liability when you drew them both and actually wanted both. There were many feel-bads associated with using the first one for a while and then replacing it with the other. As a result, of the Veil sees the majority of mainboard play with a few the Last Hope is a sideboard card.

It has happened even more recently to Gideon. This was not a problem before because Gideon Jura and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar don't go in the same decks. Jura is very much an anti-aggro card while Ally is anti-control. It just never came up. Gideon of the Trials changed that. I will attest that it is a good control card. It is awkward to play both Jura and of the Trials in the same deck. It's not the worst to play out of the Trials and eventually replace him with Jura, but it's not optimal either. Starting with both in hand is also less than fun.

What Does It Mean?

What the upcoming change means is that planeswalkers work the same as any other legendary permanent. Ergo, same card name rather than same planeswalker type. Just like with Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Thalia, Heretic Cathar, you can have both Gideon of the Trials and Gideon Jura on the battlefield together. This will be huge for control decks. When of the Trials was spoiled many players joked about Gideon tribal decks. While possible to build them, it was never going to work because you could only have one in play at a time. Now, you actually can curve Trials into Ally into Jura. Then presumably win by attacking for 15 after clearing out blockers with Jura's +2 ability. Will this actually be good? I don't know, but I do know that at the PPTQ where I played UW Control there were games I could have won if I could have had Jura and Trials on board together. This will be significant.

As for Liliana, it doesn't remove all the barriers to an eight-Lili deck, but it does remove that feel-bad part. Now you can have of the Veil on board to pressure control and combo while the Last Hope ticks up to victory. Grixis Shadow has been running one or the other, usually the Last Hope, and I don't think they want to overload on three-drops. However, it is certainly possible for more grindy matchups. It also raises the possibility of other midrange decks rising to take advantage of her power. I would not be surprised if this incentivized a return to traditional Jund and Abzan.

Back to the Grind

After a two-week break I'm going back on the PPTQ grind next week. Hopefully this will be the last article in the series, but you never know. Best of luck to the rest of you, and may you make it!

Insider: Post-Rotation Standard Specs

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Well, it feels like we are at the crossroads. Last weekend was the final Amonkhet block Limited event for me, and it is getting to that time when things are about to change. The new block and Standard rotation are rapidly approaching, which means big changes for Magic: The Gathering.

First of all, we are about to bring a new set into the fold. However, more important are the cards that will be rotating out. While a new set will always bring some change, the loss of four sets will really mix up the landscape moving forward. It makes a lot of sense—four is greater than one.

While we may not have the full scoop about what Ixalan will bring, we do know what will be waving "bye-bye" and what cards will be sticking around. Today I'd like to take a quick stroll across a few cards that are likely to remain in high demand, and/or become more important, once Shadows over Innistrad and Battle for Zendikar bid us their final Standard farewell.

Energy, Energy, Energy

Kaladesh brought us the energy mechanic and it has left a mark on the format. The cards are powerful, synergistic, and slot well into a Temur shell. I have every reason to believe that this strategy will continue to be great moving forward. I can't imagine it gets weaker when four sets' worth of cards rotate out and are replaced with one set!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Hub

Aether Hub is a great Magic card. It's basically a better Tendo Ice Bridge because it can be reused. It fixes every color and is a mainstay in the energy decks. Its one of those chase uncommons that many people need. These seem like a great card to have post-rotation.

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Hydra is another powerful energy card that has a cheap price tag but could become a really big player moving forward. It's hard to kill and presents a giant threat. What a combo! It also slots into the other various energy strategies nicely—particularly, Pummeler. Cheap opportunity cost, potential, and low risk make this card a nice pick-up-and-tuck-away right now.

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Glorybringer is less of an energy card and more of a good card. Every deck playing red will utilize this awesome Dragon or at least consider it for a spot in the 75. In a smaller format this is one of the objectively "good cards" and I expect its level of play to rise moving forward, making it a nice pick-up now.

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I think it is safe to say that Aether Revolt is really big when it comes to defining the new Standard format. The bulk of the Energy and BG decks come from the set. Rogue Refiner becomes even more important at smoothing draws for Temur with the loss of Tireless Tracker.

It will likely be an automatic include in any deck running the energy mechanic, which is saying something because Energy looks like the front-runner best deck based on what I've seen so far.

BG Constrictor

Black-green loses some cards in the rotation but the Constrictor is still around which means that the deck will move forward. In fact, most of the key +1/+1 counters cards remain for the ride.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winding Constrictor

With the loss of delirium it feels like all black-green decks will be quarterbacked by the snake. I've even played this card a fair amount in Modern. It hits the "good card" mark and is a great card to own moving forward. People will be slotting this card into decks for years.

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Where there are snakes there are Ballistas. Also, Ballista is just a great card that sees play all the way back into Vintage and Modern. These will continue to be popular but could be a real contender post-rotation.

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Aether Revolt kind of dropped the BG Constrictor deck into our lap, but as I said before, the heart of the deck remains intact. Few things are scarier than facing down a Constrictor into a Rishkar. The bodies are huge and the clock is real. All of these cards have dropped off in value but there is a good chance for some bounce-back with the new format on the horizon.

Gearhulks

In particular, two of the Gearhulks interest me right now:

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdurous Gearhulk

These have fallen off in price lately but could well become big shark cards in the smaller Standard format. These cards are insanely powerful and can really do damage in a format with fewer top-notch options. I would be shocked if Standard didn't have two Gearhulk decks built around these powerful mythics.

Blue Gearhulk is pricey but will continue to be a chased card. The green Gearhulk, in my opinion, is kind of low in price right now and has some room to bounce back. Both seem like great holds at the moment.

Combo Cards

The combo cards might also have a room to grow moving forward. It stands to reason that these decks may get better in a smaller metagame.

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Reanimator is already a competitive archetype and doesn't lose a ton in the rotation. The most important card, the Gift itself, remains and could even get better support cards in the coming set. Combo-control is always a scary archetype and I see this as something that could really hit moving forward. It also helps that the card is pretty cheap at the moment.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Shadow of the Grave

Lets not count out the cycling combo deck either. It has been borderline-competitive from the get go and has a lot of good matchups outside of counterspell decks. You never know how a format will shake out but when you are betting on bulk rares, it's impossible to fail. I like these as a very safe pick-up that has potential high upside.

Miscellaneous

There are a few other generic "good cards" that I like holding onto right now.

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Censor is a good card that will be played in the various blue control and midrange decks. It has a lot of upside and fills a weak void in the curve for a lot of decks. The fact that it can just be cycled away when it isn't useful gives the card a ton of play. I think this card will continue to be highly played and in high demand.

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Dusk // Dawn is a really powerful Magic card and may have some room to shine in the new metagame. The card is an absolute house against Temur (which stands to be the top dog going into the new format) since it is a one-sided Wrath against the majority of threats that deck plays. It also slots nicely into the Monument-style decks which could be a player post-rotation. Either way, I think this is a card that will get better.

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The Hour of Devastation Gods also seem like fine pick-ups right now. It'll be hard to speculate, but I think at least one of these Gods will be impactful in new Standard. These cards are absurdly powerful in the abstract, albeit expensive to cast.

The Scarab God is my pick because I think there will likely be some kind of good reanimator deck based around the God, Liliana, Death's Majesty, and God-Pharaoh's Gift in Standard. Although I think one could do much worse than to bet on any of these powerful, flavorful mythics right now.

Advent of Spoiler Season

As we move closer to the release of Ixalan, now is the time to start thinking about tossing away some of the rotating cards and speculating on what comes next. I think it makes a lot of sense to bet on the cards that are already good and likely to form the starting point of the next Standard format.

Enjoy the spoiler season! I know I'm ready to get my brew on. Yet I'm a realist too—and I know the decks mentioned above will become the cornerstone of my new gauntlet.

Insider: Standard Rotation Means Opportunity

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Hello, everyone!

We are about one month away from the next Standard rotation. A rotation means everybody will be selling their Standard cards to prepare for the next set. This is the time where the MTGO market will be flooded with rotating Standard cards, which means in the coming weeks, many of these cards will be at their lowest prices ever.

This week, I'm going to share some of my findings on:

  • Rotating cards that have the potential to grow in price due to Modern demand.
  • Standard cards that are not rotating and are currently under-rated.

Rotating Cards

Card Tutors

Eldritch Evolution did not see play in any top-tier Standard decks, but it is quite popular in Modern, mainly in creature based combo or value decks. If you still remember Birthing Pod decks from about two years ago, Eldritch Evolution is actually a nerfed version of Pod. Here's some Modern decks that play the sorcery spell:

Currently these decks play two to three copies of Evolution in their 75 to tutor for their combo pieces. Although these decks aren't the best decks in Modern right now, I think Eldritch Evolution is worth investing in at its current price of 0.4 ticket. Modern is such a huge format, and powerful creatures are being printed every set, so there's a chance that even more busted creature combos will appear in the future.

  • Eldritch Evolution: Current Buy Price: 0.4; Target Sell Price: 5; Profit Per Copy: 4.6

Traverse the Ulvenwald is no doubt one of the best card in Standard and Modern. Ever since its release, many decks playing it emerged at the top of the Standard and Modern metagames. It's relatively easy to hit delirium in Modern, so I wouldn't be surprised to see more Traverse the Ulvenwald in the future.

  • Traverse the Ulvenwald: Current Buy Price: 0.45; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 2.55

Creatures

Most of the powerful creatures that are rotating are currently dropping in price steadily. Now is the time to set some targets for these creatures – if they somehow hit certain low points, it's probably worth buying in for some for mid- to long-term tern specs. Here are some creature cards that you might want to add to your watchlists:

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is a very unique creature card, as it's a maindeckable hate card against Burn and Dredge. Kalitas sometimes acts as "mirror-breaker" card between midrange attrition mirror matchups where the player who has Kalitas in play will be able to take over the game quickly. In the past week, the Traitor of Ghet has been falling in value as you can see in the graph shown above. The current price at 8 tickets might not be the exact bottom yet, so we can probably wait for another week or two to observe how the price trends.

  • Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet: Target Buy Price: 4; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 6

This three-mana flashy spirit has been played in many decks in Standard for as long as it's been legal, and it's even being played in Modern nowadays. Spell Queller is very good in tempo decks. Sometimes blue-white control decks have these in the sideboard as a way to transition their game plan in games two and three. Spell Queller has a special keyword in its oracle text – "exile," instead of "counter," target spell, so it's relevant in some scenarios in Modern where the opponent has cards that "can't be countered" like Abrupt Decay and creatures cast using Cavern of Souls. And remember, Queller's text is written in two separate clauses, similar to Tidehollow Sculler and Fiend Hunter, and if used correctly, the targeted spell can be exiled permanently. For all these reasons, I think Queller will remain active in the Modern format for a very long time.

  • Spell Queller: Target Buy Price: 2; Target Sell Price: 8; Profit Per Copy: 6

Everyone who plays Magic surely knows this card, as it's played in every Constructed format where it's legal, so I guess I don't need to explain its ability. I'm not sure what is going to happen with the price in the coming weeks, but it's worth to keep track. If Thought-Knot Seer hits 4 tickets or below at some point, I think it's safe to stock up on some copies.

  • Thought-Knot Seer:  Target Buy Price: below 4; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 6

Here's a couple other Eldrazi creatures that I think are worth another look. Both Eldrazi Displacer and Matter Reshaper are played in Modern. Displacer is slightly less popular, while Reshaper is seen in almost all versions of Eldrazi decks. If you decide to get some copies of either of these, I suggest waiting until they drop below the 0.5-ticket mark.

  • Eldrazi Displacer and Matter Reshaper: Target Buy Price: below 0.5; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 2.5

Underrated Standard Cards

As I'm writing this, not much information has been revealed for Ixalan yet except for an uncut foiled sheet leaked two months ago. First of all, I'm not sure whether these cards are even confirmed as real, but I'm going to do some speculations on Standard post-rotation based on the following information:

  • Allied-colored check lands reprint
  • High casting cost Dinosaurs in Naya colors (green, red, white)
  • Pirates in Grixis colors (black, red, blue)
  • Some good black creature and planeswalker removal spells

Once again, let's talk about the cycling duals. Two weeks back, I wrote a land-themed article which includes some of these lands. Since then, Fetid Pools has increased by about 0.6 tix while the rest did not change much. These lands are under 2 tickets (besides Sheltered Thicket), and I think they will become more popular when the other dual lands rotate out of Standard. Not only can they make the check lands enter the battlefield untapped, they can also be cycled for a card to prevent flooding.

Liliana, Death's Majesty is actually a powerful card but she's overshadowed by Ob Nixilis Reignited in the current Standard. With some good black removal in Ixalan and Ob Nixilis's departure from the format, I think Liliana will become one of the best planeswalkers in Standard. If there's still any reanimator-type deck post-rotation, I think Liliana will become even more popular. As of now, Liliana is dropping in price, probably because MTGO players are selling off Liliana together with their delirium cards. If she drops to somewhere 3 tickets or below, its probably a good time to pick up some copies.

  • Liliana, Death's Majesty: Target Buy Price: 3 or below; Target Sell Price: 6; Profit Per Copy: 3

With the printing of Naya-color Dinosaurs, I imagine players will start by experimenting with some kind of Naya or green-red ramp/monster decks. Neheb, the Eternal is a card that supports that kind of strategy. There's a chance this card will go up a bit during the "testing period".

  • Neheb, the Eternal: Target Buy Price: 1 or below; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 2

This card went up to 3 tickets twice before this because of a Black-Green Aristocrats deck, but currently its back at about 1 ticket. If Naya Monsters is a thing in Ixalan Standard, there's a chance that this card will be good. It's true that Bristling Hydra can easily be a better card for a deck full of big creatures, but Vizier of the Menagerie is a way to gain card advantage.

  • Vizier of the Menagerie: Target Buy Price: 1.2 or below; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 1.8

Alright, that's all for this week, thanks for reading and I'll see you all next week.

Adrian, signing out.

Insider: Hour of Devastation MTGO Speculation, Part One

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Welcome back, folks!

I had intended to conclude the Ixalan rotation series this week, but Hour of Devastation reached its financial low during the first week of August, and so I want to write about speculating on Hour of Devastation singles before the set price climbs too high. Recall that one of the primary speculation methods I employ is to speculate on cards in sets that are at their lowest value since that minimizes risk (and theoretically maximizes profit potential, although for me personally that's less of a concern than risk minimization).

I was really surprised by how well Hour of Devastation maintained its value. I had predicted that the Hour of Devastation would reach a 37.00- to 40.00-tix set value, but in truth it never did. It reached 45.00 tix during the first week of August, and ever since then has been fluctuating between 47.00 and 57.00 tix. I suspect that many of you have felt the same way I have about the prices of Hour of Devastation cards – like the rent in New York, they're too damn high! After doing a little bit of research I figured out the most probable cause - the disparity between the set's digital value and paper value is so great that a substantially larger amount of Hour of Devastation sets are getting redeemed than normal. This, combined with the lower supply of small sets in general, demands that we look at Hour of Devastation card prices in a different light.


Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation both have very high paper multipliers, meaning that the value of the paper cards is higher than usual when compared to the digital cards. Usually the value of a paper set is 2 to 2.5 times the value of a digital set, but occasionally it is closer to triple the value. In Amonkhet block's case, it is halfway between triple and quadruple! This means we can expect Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation to be redeemed more than usual, leading to a more limited supply online. This means that the online value of Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation mythics will be significantly higher than normal, and that of the rares will be higher as well. Because I did not fully appreciate this fact until I began to do research for this article, I did significantly less investing in Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation cards than in Kaladesh block cards. The prices just seemed so high, and I kept expecting them to go lower.

As I did with Amonkhet, I want to share my thoughts on my favorite speculation targets. Remember that, in general, there will never be a better, more forgiving time to buy in on Hour of Devastation cards. In this article, I will focus on the more expensive cards, and in part two, I will focus on cheaper cards.

Hour of Devastation is an excellent sweeper, one too slow for Hour of Devastation Standard to reach all-star status, but  one that is well-suited to thrive in a midrange-dominated Standard. Unlike other sweepers surviving rotation, Hour of Devastation deals with Hazoret, the Fervent, Rhonas, the Indomitable and Crested Sunmare, should that card find a competitive home. What Hour of Devastation doesn't permanently deal with are Vehicles like Heart of Kiran and the Hour of Devastation Gods. At any rate, I think that this card will have some Standard formats where it doesn't shine and others where it does, and when it does it should be a 3.00- to 5.00-tix card.

Recommended buy price: 1.75 to 2.00 tix

Earthshaker Khenra will be a core piece of any Red Deck Wins strategy and most likely a core piece of any Red deck that slants heavily aggressive until it rotates. Sitting at 1.40 tix, Earthshaker Khenra is one of the only cards in Hour of Devastation I feel has been undervalued for a long time. I got several copies at 1.20 tix, but I'm willing to buy in a bit higher. I do think there is a non-zero chance the card will dip closer to 1.00 tix, specifically if the loss of the red one-drops and direct burn spells Incendiary Flow and Collective Defiance to rotation force Ramunap Red out of tier-one status.

I will not be waiting for that hypothetical to happen, though – I feel very confident that Earthshaker Khenra will reach 3.00 tix again at some point before it rotates, and so I'm happy to pick up more copies at its current price point. If replacements for key core pieces of the Ramunap Red deck do not come in Ixalan, undoubtedly they will in subsequent sets.

Recommended buy price: 1.25 tix

Champion of Wits has proven itself as a powerful enabler for graveyard-based strategies as well as a valuable midrange value creature. Abrade is currently keeping Champion of Wits's price in check by keeping God-Pharaoh's Gift strategies in check. Champion of Wits's potential is also high, standing to gain much from future Standard sets.

The graveyard is a popular focal point for Wizards R&D, one that is utilized every few blocks. While Ixalan does not seem to care about the graveyard, more likely than not, one of the next two sets/blocks will. If Champion of Wits becomes a core piece of a tier-one strategy enabled by cards from those sets, expect its price to reach 5.00 to 7.50 tix. I'm not enthusiastic about buying in at the current 3.50 tix price tag, but if it dips any lower, I'll be investing. An investment at 2.50 tix would likely be a smart, conservative buy.

Recommended buy price: 2.00 to 2.50 tix

This is the one I'm sticking my neck out on, and hopefully the guillotine isn't what awaits it. The Locust God sees virtually no play, but it does meet certain important criteria. First is that it generates a lasting on-board advantage merely for existing (unlike the other two HOU gods, it needs only time, not mana). Second is that it is a sticky threat, and one that will become more sticky once Grasp of Darkness is replaced by Walk the Plank.

Winged divinities can walk planks all day. As such, I'm willing to risk financial capital on this speculation, even though it is possible that its converted mana cost of six and its needing time to generate lasting on-board advantage might prove too much to overcome. For those (understandably) hesitant, write this one down, and if no control finisher as good as this is revealed during spoiler season, consider investing in it at that time. Sphinx of the Final Word is rotating, after all!

Recommended buy price: 1.75 to 2.15 tix

Some Words of Caution

(1) The Scarab God

The Scarab God is a very interesting case study that I will use in a future article to highlight a truth: playing a format, and in this case, playing a particular deck (Temur Energy) in the format, can give you a huge leg up on the speculation competition.

When I first laid eyes on The Scarab God, I did not think I was looking at a card that was going to see a lot of competitive play, and I did not think I was looking at a card that would command a high price tag on MTGO. Powerful permanents like The Scarab God that don't generate a lasting advantage without additional effort generally don't rise to the level of Constructed viability – Drana, Liberator of Malakir, I'm looking at you – but it turns out that The Scarab God is just sticky enough and its activated ability creates just enough of an on-board advantage that it merits Constructed play.

Going forward, The Scarab God will likely see play in the maindeck and sideboards of various midrange and control strategies. Given its rarity and set as well as its set's paper multiplier discussed above, I think we have a card that could follow the price trajectory of Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, even if shifted down several dollars.  Kalitas, if you recall, flucturated between the high teens and mid thirties for much of its adult life in Standard.

The Scarab God is sitting at 12.99 tix right now, and I think that may prove to be a solid buy-in point. I admit that I'm still a little squeamish investing in it at that price point (man is a risk-averse creature. Take a look at this Royal Institute lecture on the historical relationship between gambling and mathematics for a few examples), but it looks more appealing when we consider that it is the most playable mythic rare in Hour of Devastation. A set's value has to park itself somewhere, at least until the redemption window closes in November. If this is a card you want to speculate on, it might be worth seeing if you can snag it around 10.00 tix. I might contemplate speculating on it closer to 8.00 or 9.00 tix.

(2) The Scorpion God

The Scorpion God is my favorite card from Hour of Devastation from a game design perspective. It trailblazes new design space for red in a way that expands the playability range of Magic's most narrow color. However, from the standpoint of Standard viability, it does not meet the playability bar that The Scarab God hurdles over. Three mana to give a creature -1/-1 pales in comparison to putting a 4/4 body into play for four mana. Additionally, it is a safe bet that no more cards synergistic with -1/-1 counters will be printed during its Standard life cycle (prior to Amonkhet, -1/-1 counter cards were last printed in Standard in 2011). Currently, The Scorpion God sits at 3.00 tix, and I don't see much growth potential.

(3) Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh

Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh currently sits at 6.90 tix, and I just don't think the card sees enough Constructed play or will see enough Constructed play in the future to hold that price tag. Cards with a converted mana cost of seven really need to win games of Magic or catch you up from behind when they land, and Nicol Bolas doesn't do either. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Dragonlord Atarka or Elspeth, Sun's Champion this is not. I expect Nicol Bolas to settle closer to 5.00 tix. There are always better speculation opportunities than seven-mana tri-colored cards.

Pixie-Dusting Away

As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below. Remember to buy your shocklands and other Ravnica staples now due to the Flashback Drafts. I bought a playset of Chord of Calling and will be looking to fill out missing pieces in my shocklands as well. In my next article, I'll be finishing this series up with cheaper cards from Hour of Devastation, and then in the following article I will finish the series on what cards to speculate on in anticipation of rotation. I hope you enjoy the card below, the third in my cycle of mono-colored charms. Faerie players will love this one.

Insider: Staying Ahead of the Buyout Curve

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I would be lying if I said I wasn’t the littlest bit surprised these Reserved List buyouts are still occurring. When this happened last year, the hype had a few differentiating characteristics not present this time around:

  • The Reserved List buyouts were triggered by Craig Berry individually as he made moves on Moat and Lion's Eye Diamond.
  • After these two cards were targeted, the MTG finance community proceeded to tackle many other playable Reserved List cards.
  • The Reserved List mania lasted no more than a week and a half.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

Things are very different this time around—the targeted cards cover the full spectrum of playability and there’s no one individual responsible for all this hype (that we know of). But most importantly, the Reserved List mania is still alive and strong more than two weeks after it debuted. That’s a lot of hype-based spending.

All this said, I do believe we are in the seventh inning when it comes to these buyouts. There will be a handful more to come. This week I want to share the two sides of how I have approached this coin: the buy side and the sell side. I’ll also provide some important perspective to remind everyone what the real goal is from MTG speculation and finance.

How I Stay Ahead of the Reserved List Buyouts

I developed a simple three-step process that helped me acquire many of the spiking Reserved List cards at or near their “old price.” Last week on the QS Cast I attempted to describe part of this process, but my poor internet connectivity inhibited me from explaining it clearly and extensively. Thus I resort to this writing venue to go into further detail.

Step 1: TCGplayer browsing - I visit TCGplayer.com and move to the Advanced Search page. From there I select a set I wish to browse; for these buyouts that was Arabian Nights, Antiquities, Legends, and The Dark. Using that as my only filter, I run the search. TCGplayer’s default setting is to sort all cards by “Best Selling.” The top cards in the list that have low supply are likely being targeted for buyout.

Step 2: Supply research - I sell exclusively on eBay. So once I take note of cards low in stock on the cusp of selling out, I check eBay to see what copies are selling for there. I also check major vendors such as Star City Games, Card Kingdom, and ABU Games to make sure none of them have a significant amount in stock. These would be warning signs that a buyout was done sloppily.

Step 3: Place the Order - Just because TCGplayer has low stock doesn’t mean I scramble to buy my copies there. In fact, this is a warning sign that I need to look elsewhere to find copies at the best price. For these Reserved List buyouts, my go-to sites have been Card Shark, Hareruya, and Tokyo MTG. Why? It seems fewer people know about these sites so prices spike a little bit slower. Since I’m buying cards that are about to spike and haven’t already shown up on MTG Stocks yet, I can sometimes find copies at these sites before the true mania ensues.

This simple strategy has worked time and again. I have managed to acquire 1-4 copies (rarely more) of a card days or even hours before it spikes. A great example was Cleansing, which I predicted would sell out a solid couple of days before it actually happened. I managed to buy three copies from TCGplayer, all Lightly Played and all for around a buck.

In fact I had to buy extra junk from those sellers just to meet the $2 minimum, but I didn’t care what I purchased to make that minimum because I predicted I’d be selling these for much higher. One copy has sold at $10 and the next is listed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cleansing

This transitions me to the next part of this week’s article: the mindset I use when selling these Reserved List cards.

How I’m Selling

I want to start with a hypothetical situation to make a point. Imagine you bought 50 shares of stock for Company A at $5 a share. Then, overnight, the shares spike to $25. You wake up in the morning to find your $250 investment is suddenly worth much more. However due to the three-day settlement rule you hold your shares an extra couple of days to avoid violations.

Two days later reality sets in. Your stock sells off as speculators decide $25 is far too expensive for stock in Company A, and shares tank. They end up dropping down to around $10 as you reach your three-day requirement. I have two questions for you: how do you feel about this movement and do you want to sell your shares at $10?

I’ll share my thoughts as you ponder this scenario. I would personally feel like I lost $15 a share—$750 in total—on this investment because I did not lock in potential gains. I may even be hesitant to sell at $10 when the three days clear, though ultimately I’d decide to get out before any more profits erode. Net, I would be feeling pretty bad about this sequence of events.

I believe some of us are experiencing this exact phenomenon with our Reserved List investments. We are purchasing virtually unplayable cards at $2-$5, only to watch them explode shortly afterwards on MTG Stocks. The Interests page is revealing major triple-digit gains: 500%, 800%, 1000%! Suddenly Lifeblood is worth $80 and we paid just $4 for them, hooray!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifeblood

But by the time the cards arrive, these values pulled back quite dramatically from their highs. We list copies at competitive pricing, just a hair under our competitors, in the hopes that we can salvage strong profits. But as hours and days pass without a sale, we are forced to drop our prices lower and lower. This leads to anxiety and a disappointing feeling.

I would encourage you to flip this around 180 degrees and think about it more pragmatically. To buy a card at $5 and sell at $15 is an amazing feat, especially when the turnaround time can be measured in hours. In a vacuum if I told you I had an idea of a $5 card that will be $15 next week, I’m sure everyone would jump on such an opportunity. It doesn’t matter that the path taken for said card is $5 to $100 to $15. The path is irrelevant—only the profits in your bank account remain when all is said and done.

With this in mind, I have been doing my very best to use MTG Stocks’ Interests page as an indicator of what is spiking and not how much something spiked. The numbers being displayed are unfeasibly high, and if we let ourselves fall into the trap of believing our cards are truly worth what is displayed on screen during a buyout, we will leave ourselves with a sour taste when we ultimately sell our copies.

It’s extremely important to remember your buy-in price and be content with any profits you make on these cards. We all dream of the huge payday, but in reality if you’re selling Merchant Ships for $18 you are most certainly winning even if MTG Stocks says the card is worth $50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Merchant Ship

Want to learn more about what I’m selling? I have an idea, which may come across as a shameless plug but rest assured it is not. You can view and follow all my listings on eBay to see what I’m moving and for how much. With this information you can see the Reserved List cards I acquired and have decided to sell, along with the price.

During this volatile time filled with Reserved List buyouts, I am adjusting my pricing regularly. Often times I start high and gradually ratchet prices downwards until I either hit the minimum price I’m willing to sell at or I get the sale. This strategy has worked well for me and I plan on implementing it in the future, no matter what crazy pricing shows up on the Interests page.

Wrapping It Up

In order to navigate this volatile Reserved List market, you need to have a well-developed buying and selling plan.

Throughout the past three weeks of hype, I’ve developed a strategy for buying Reserved List cards before they jump through the roof and hop onto everyone’s radar. With how fast this market moves, you only need to buy one day before everyone else to realize significant gains. Relying on less-trafficked sites like Card Shark, Hareruya, and Tokyo MTG has been an effective way of finding well-priced copies of low-stock cards. Even buying on TCGplayer has been a successful strategy when a card hasn’t quite popped yet.

Then when the cards arrive, a disciplined sell strategy is required in order to block the human inclination to view some of these sales as “losses” even when substantial profits are made. Our bias to view missed gains will taint our willingness to cash out for a lower price, even if that price still means profit. We must eschew this tendency because it is unrealistic to expect to sell at crazy-high prices.

Does it ever happen? Probably. But it should not be the exit strategy you develop when acquiring these Reserved List cards. They may be extremely rare, but many are also virtually unplayable. We should be thrilled that we’re making money on stuff like Rapid Fire rather than upset we’re not selling at higher prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rapid Fire

Lastly, remember that this is a phase in MTG finance that will soon be passing. Every day over the past couple weeks has brought us new Reserved List buyouts. But this can not and will not continue indefinitely. Eventually hype will shift gears and the MTG finance community will lose interest in these Reserved List buyouts.

When that happens, it will be even tougher to sell out of the most unplayable cards. Therefore, in the meantime I encourage you to price aggressively. Don’t focus on the exorbitant pricing of MTG Stocks—instead, determine what is an acceptable profit (hint: it shouldn’t be too much) and price accordingly.

You’re welcome to start higher and drop pricing from there as I do, but this will only work to a point. Eventually you’ll be left holding these for much longer than you originally anticipated if you’re unable to sell quickly. For me, that’s fine because I genuinely enjoy owning these cards. But if you have no interest in a small collection of Cleansings and Bartel Runeaxes, then you’d better start pricing aggressively now.

Don’t forget buylists can also be a worthwhile pursuit for cashing out at modest profits. Many buylists have already climbed significantly, and there’s nothing wrong with taking the small, easy gains rather than hoping for the large, difficult gains. Just remember that “profit is profit” and you’ll be happy to make any money on these unplayable cards. That should be enough!

…

Sigbits

  • Do I see anything on the horizon that could still pop? Yup. I noticed stock on some The Dark Reserved List cards has really dwindled lately. Scarwood Bandits and Lurker are at the top of the list. The former is actually an interesting card for Old School, but the latter seems pretty useless. I’d buy cautiously.
  • From Antiquities, Martyrs of Korlis and Power Artifact look primed to pop. If you like penny stocks then the Martyrs could be the right target for you. You should be able to get some copies for under a buck. However if you want something with a proven track record, Power Artifact is a useful card across multiple formats. It even shows up in over 1,300 decklists on EDH REC. This is a solid long-term hold.
  • Lastly, from Legends, a trio of red cards catch my eye. Storm World, Caverns of Despair, and Spinal Villain are all selling lately and they could all be primed for buyout. If the Reserved List dominoes continue to fall, these will eventually get in the way. Just be cautious with the first two since they both popped once before, so their entry price is higher than I’d like. Spinal Villain may be the most interesting—remember once upon a time when people thought it could be a useful sideboard card against Legacy Merfolk?

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