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(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)
Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language
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A little over a year ago I rebooted my trade collection due to an unfortunate turn of events and set a plan in motion to rebuild. In my article āWhatās your Plan?ā I talked about how itemizing your priorities is important to anyoneās goal, and itās something Iāve revisited a number of times since then. For me, this is not just the most important and fundamental aspect of speculating and trading, but also important to accomplishing goals in my life. Since then, Iāve managed to trade my way through a full cycle of PTQ seasons, starting with Limited, then Modern and finally Standard. Now that weāre back full circle to Limited, I want to update my plan, as my situation has changed, and this raises an opportunity to really detail how to make and follow a plan.
Since last year Iāve become a DCI Level 2 Judge, and as such Iāll be working at a handful of PTQs and not able to play in as many as Iām used to. This is a change Iāve chosen, in part because Iām making a commitment to make up for it with additional play on MTGO. In the past, MTGO has been a casual hobby for me, firing up a draft once or twice a month, when Iām too busy to play otherwise; while drafting with the ringers at the LGS has been my mainstay. While I donāt expect this to change too much, I donāt expect to be traveling to as many events, unless Iām judging. My higher level play will have to be done on MTGO. Making this switch has a lot of complexities, and formulating a solid plan for this is extremely important to my success.
What are my goals? This is the first step in formulating a plan. If you donāt know what you want to achieve, it is impossible to optimize the steps to get there. Donāt just think about it. Youāre reading this right now thinking, āI know what my plan is...ā Prove it. Write your goal down. In your own handwriting. Read it back to yourself out loud. Put it away somewhere, or digitize it.
For me? My goal is to be able to play 4-6 drafts per week, and within a year have a complete Standard collection. If I had infinite funds, this goal would be simple. But, nothing is ever simple. I still have a paper collection to maintain and, luckily for me, i do have some amount of MTGO product to begin with.
So, youāve got a goal. Now you need to come up with strategies to attain it. What are the obstacles that prevent this from being a reality right now? For me, Iām unwilling to simply shell out the cash to buy a complete Standard collection while at the same time bankrolling multiple drafts per week. First, I need to decide what drafting will cost me, if Iām not planning to sell the cards. Drafting is the best way to obtain Standard cards as you get value from opening your product by getting the opportunity for prize packs. Plus it actively unites my two goals. T
o make things easy, weāll assume Iām a perfectly average 8-4 drafter (although Iād like to think Iām better than that). Given that, I should be able to split the finals of a draft 2 out of 8 times (25%). Meaning my expected earnings from each draft are 6 packs times 25%, or 1.5 packs. It costs 3 packs and 2 tickets to draft, and I expect 1.5 packs in return, so if I want to draft 4 times per week that will cost me 8 tickets plus 6 packs. At full retail thatās 8x$1 + 6x$4= $32/week or $128/month. This would also mean I cycle through 12 packs per week in singles, or a āboxā every 3 weeks.
Will drafting at this rate get me all the Standard cards I need? Well after opening 125 packs I would expect (on average) to have 1 of each Mythic and 2 of each Rare. At my projected rate, this would take about 10 weeks, so in the ~14 weeks until Gatecrash is released on MTGO I should get a decently close, combined with the 1 pack of RTR Iāll be drafting when the Block completes in Spring. Iām satisfied that Iāll get close enough to a playset that Iāll be able to trade cards I donāt need for ones I do.
So essentially at $128 per month, with no additional work, this could be attainable. But not only do I not want to spend that kind of money, Iād like to try and make some money. This means Iāll need to be doing some careful speculation, and it will be important to keep this separate from the Standard collection Iām building. For this purpose, I plan to speculate mostly on Modern cards, and Innistrad Block cards, as by the time I finish my Standard collection, these will have rotated. I think itās realistic that if I invest $200 into tickets, that I could garner enough profits to contribute the 8 tickets per week towards the draft and at least a couple of the boosters, reducing my actual cost to ~$15 per week.
I plan to use mtggoldfish.com as a huge resource for following trends of Modern cards, especially with the reprinting of shocklands and peopleās buzz about the upcoming Modern Masters sets. I expect to see decent fluctuations over the next 6 months, at least enough to ride a couple waves up and down. Long term, i plan to pick up on Zendikar fetches, but in order to see some smaller gains in the short term to immediately aid the drafting cause Iām going to be watching waves of Innistrad lands, as well as underplayed Mythics which tend to have the biggest swings. This happens because people end up needing them for redemption, so even the bad Mythics are easy to move and because when they suddenly appear in a top deck, the demand skyrockets.
Each week Iāll be updating my portfolio here in my article, and talking about how this plan changes and what strategies Iāve found to be successful. My first task will be to identify the best bots to buy and sell boosters to, and the best method for selling cards once theyāve reached a point I want to get out of a speculation. Having these mechanisms set up before I enter the market is extremely important so you donāt end up stuck with a speculation you canāt dump at the prime moment.
Iād love to hear feedback and advice about my new project. Another set of opinions from a new set of eyes is something entrepreneurs are often too prideful to allow. Take other peopleās wisdom and consider them, but donāt follow them blindly.
See you on MTGO!
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I hope you enjoyed the Pro Tour last weekend. I enjoyed it with friends while playing on Magic Online, doing Sealed Release Events to practice for the upcoming PTQ and Grand Prix. I am still improving on that front, but it allows me to explore the Magic bots, MODO trading and the interface of MODO.
I have also encountered a lot of humans while trading and the communication with them has ā surprisingly ā been a very good experience. Also, while playing against my opponents, sometimes we talk more than just "GL" and "HF", and sometimes even talk about strategy afterwards, regardless of what ELO they have.
Mostly when trading where people have a Buy advertisement on the new RtR cards, they put decimals behind their cards. Generally it is [Floor price] + [decimal]. Typically when I PM them, I want to unload my bulk since bots are giving ridiculously low prices and it is not worth the time to search for the best bulk bot. When talking with them and negotiating most people are just standing by their advertisement. Often, one can recognize this from the style of writing they use in their ad.
Now, people like me just put in there 'Buying X for y tickets', and with those people I interacted with, they were very willing to round it up. What is even more remarkable is that they mentioned they do not need extra cards to fill the gap since I typically offer them something extra for their effort. Yet what surprised me the most is that people mention in the chat that I am a nice guy (or girl even!), and add me on their buddies list to keep in touch and make future trades. This little extra value you get from other players is a huge edge to be gained by just simply utilizing written communication.
This lesson can also be brought to MOTL, online trading for paper magic, or even face-to-face trading in a Grand Prix, Local Game Store, etc. I wanted to write about this when I was brainstorming article topics I could write about for QS during my Management class. But the main impetus for me to write this article came when I was studying Gary Vaynerchukās video about the āThank Youā Economy. His target audience is entrepreneurs but I feel this can also apply to us as speculators, traders, or even store owners.
The video below starts with Gary explaining his way of thanking his customers. I really got inspired by watching his speech and I hope you also get something out of it. A disclaimer, he does use profanities, but I think it emphasizes his passion about what he is talking about.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcqCAqZtedI&t=23m45s
I think that for any web-based service, one should use this simple yet so powerful āThank youā. One can take it one step further, like Gary did, and buy a jersey of a clientās favorite football team. When I sell or trade cards online, I mention at least three times that I am thankful for their purchase or trade. I do that when I exchange addresses, I write it on the paper that goes in the envelop, and when they give me a notification that they have received my shipment. If anything goes wrong with the order I also mention it and try to resolve it as best as I can.
I am not the only one using this method as I have noticed one of the Irish Magic players posted a picture on Facebook of his StarCity Order. It was neither about the cards he ordered, nor about some mistake StarCity made with his order. The photo he posted had a big written "Thank You!", and he was willing to share it with other Irish players. Now I am terribly sorry that I did not take a screenshot of this, but think of how easy it is to create positive energy simply by writing āThank Youā on the back of the paper. Now, for an individual this might be less impactful than for a business that has a brand and logo, but I still think you can increase profitability immensely.
According to a study called Effect of Server's āThank Youā done by Bruce Rind and Prashant Bordia in 1995, they concluded that waitresses who write a simple "Thank You" on the back of the checks increased tip percentages from 16% to 18%, compared to if she just wrote nothing. I feel that we can apply this in Magic as well. With selling, I want to keep contact before I send the orders, slightly after I have sent the orders to the post office, and even after the conclusion of the sale. I think that a lot of merchants are just selling/trading cards, and are always moving on to the next one without any further communication. Establishing good relationships with online traders is just as important as it is when trading at your LGS. The growing reach one has nowadays when utilizing trading via mail is vast.
Now, the type of communication we use is entirely different when trading in person compared to trading online on MODO or trading by post on a platform like MOTL. I feel that improving in both non- and verbal communication is essential for creating a solid foundation of trade relationships with people. That way I strongly feel that we as avid traders and speculators can be one step ahead of our competition is by showing our gratefulness to our clients.
Meanwhile, in the new trading season after the release of Return to Ravnica, I am in the process of moving out my Bonfire of the Damneds, Vraska the Unseen, and Foil Jace, Architect of Thoughts to traders who still need them for any deck or collection. This is not a sell call because I feel that these cards will drop in demand and value in the coming weeks until Gatecrash's release. I am mostly looking for stable EDH cards or Modern staples for the PTQ season after the current PTQ Gatecrash season.
Talking about Pro Tours, the breakout card at the Pro Tour was definitely Deathrite Shaman. At first I had Epic Experiment in mind since my friend who joined the Dutch testing team (did you see Frank Karsten's crazy 60 highlander deck go 4-1!?) mentioned Epic Experiment in their testing gauntlet. I am not actively going to buy Deathrite Shamans as of now because the supply of Return to Ravnica cards is still relatively low. It will be drafted and sealed will be played a lot, especially since this PTQ season is sealed.
I sincerely hope you liked the article. As always if you have any comments or want to give me feedback, please do! I appreciate your input! I booked my flight to my first Grand Prix which is going to be Lisbon (RtR Sealed), so if there are any QS members attending that one too, I would love to meet up!
Gervaise
References
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Itās strange to me that people throw around the word āluckyā like itās an insult. Telling your opponent what a sack they are when they miracle a Bonfire of the Damned doesnāt do anything to lessen their victory. Nobody is going to be offended by the fact that they have above-average fortune, and frankly itās a bit short-sighted to resent somebody for this fact.
Before I say too much here, itās important to discuss what exactly is meant by luck. For many, all instances of luck fall under the category of ādumb luckā. To be lucky is simply the act of being in the right place at the right time and those who get lucky do nothing to deserve it. I was raised to believe differently than this. Thereās an old saying that my father taught me that paints luck in a very different light:
Basically, one who is more prepared for more situations will get lucky more often, as the opportunities that they face will more often match the situations for which they are prepared.
So what the hell does this have to do with getting Bonfireād for lethal? Does this make miracling a Bonfire any more than pure happenstance? Iād argue yes. Obviously you canāt cast any Bonfires that arenāt in your deck, so the mere inclusion of the card can be qualified as preparing to blow people out with it. But it goes much deeper than that.
Letās talk about Bonfire in the context of Jund. Cards like Huntmaster of the Fells and Rakdos Keyrune play fantastically well with Bonfire of the Damned. Against aggressive decks they force the aggressor into committing more creatures to attack profitably (and later die to any miracle Bonfires), and against slower decks they apply pressure leaving the opponent at a more Bonfireable life total.
It might feel bad the moment that they turn their miracle over and wreck you with it, but the next time you get Bonfired consider how your opponent played the game leading up to this event and whether or not you couldāve played in a way to prevent getting wrecked. Also, consider whether your deck is even well-equipped to battle a Bonfire.
Did your opponent make plays that prepared themselves to win with Bonfire? Did you make plays that gave them the opportunity to do so? Thinking this way will remove those dangerous thoughts of ādumb luckā from your Magic experience.
Another area where I hear players complain about luck is in regard to the matchups that they played against in a given tournament.
Letās say that youāre gearing up to play some Standard and you decided to play a deck with a phenomenal Zombies matchup, but with poor game against slower decks. Are you in the right to complain when you donāt play against Zombies all day?
Not really.
Sure, Zombies is going to be a substantial portion of the metagame, but it wonāt likely boast more than 20-30% of a room. When you build to beat up on one deck you often leave yourself underprepared to win against the rest of the field. It is a form of under-preparation that will leave you likely to get unlucky.
Most of the time you can't build to beat everything, but that doesn't make building to beat just one thing right.
One of my favorite pastimes is watching Phil Hellmuth videos on Youtube. Hellmuth will frequently find himself losing large pots and accusing his opponent of playing worse than he did. Sometimes heās right, but mostly he fails to think on the same level of his opponent. That is not to say that he plays worse necessarily, but that he fails to read what his opponent is thinking and plays as if he was playing against himself.
What Iām getting at is that Hellmuth will put his opponent on what he would have in a given situation and applies that to his opponent rather than considering what outs his opponent has. As a result he ends up playing right into his opponentās hand a lot of the time. If you can think of outs that your opponent has for your play then youāre not fooling anybody by pretending that your play is āgeniusā or unbeatable.
When you overcommit into a Bonfire that you donāt have to or play a deck that isnāt good against a reasonable percentage of the metagame, saying that there is something wrong with the game rather than your preparation is foolish behavior and it makes you look like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf0IcYY_O28
Another favorite pastime of mine is chuckling at people that rage about drawing too many/few lands. This weekend at the TCG Player 5K I kept this hand on the play against Mono-Red:
I had a deck full of Centaur Healer, Thragtusk and Sphinx's Revelation, and I kept this garbage. With this hand, I basically need a two drop and/or a Centaur Healer in my first three draws to not just die, especially considering that my Knight is AWFUL against Stromkirk Noble and Ash Zealot. My opponent even had the Noble! How Lucky!
Alternatively, if I mulligan I get to see six fresh cards which gives me considerably higher odds of having a turn three Centaur Healer. I didn't commit the actions available to me to help generate the opportunities that I wanted.
Another interesting thing about this game was that when I played my Restoration Angel my opponent Thunderbolted it. I wasnāt familiar with monored sideboards and I was not at all prepared for that to happen. Meanwhile my opponent was clearly prepared for me to be casting an Angel.
Was he lucky to have the Thunderbolt for the exact card that itās good against in my deck? Sure, but it certainly wasnāt dumb luck. I kept a hand that was ice cold to Thunderbolt because I was underprepared and he found himself getting the opportunity for which he was prepared.
~
Thereās quite a bit more to say on this topic and it is one that will likely be worth revisiting in the future, particularly with regard to constructing decks that are best suited to combat the greatest number of possible situations.
I realize that the brief mention of my Bant deck without a list is a bit of a tease, but I havenāt been able to compile all of my thoughts on the deck just yet. Expect a write-up about it for next week.
If you canāt wait that long I was streaming an 8-man with the deck last night and talked a bit about the list. The video for this can be found here:
http://www.twitch.tv/goodluckhighfive
Until next time, be prepared; high five!
-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter
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Greetings, Speculators!
Another week has come and gone and the results from Michigan State Champs are still not up anywhere. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the professionals at "Professional Events Services". They still haven't forwarded the Top 8 deck lists from Michigan State Champs to TCGplayer.com nor have they posted decklists on their own website since December 2011. Don't worry, though. I'm sure they'll do a fine job running GP Philadelphia.
We've heard a lot about how Jund is smashing the meta. We knew about Zombies for weeks and the U/W/R Miracles deck, designed by Team SCG to beat the zombie decks they all insisted were a good choice for the Open, saw a lot of play the following weekend at Champs. U/W Control ditching the red made an even bigger impact on the meta because it didn't rely on fickle miracles but instead compounded the oppressiveness of turn four [card Jace, Architect of Thought]Jace[/card], turn five [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] with breakout cards like [card Sphinxs Revelation]Sphinx's (Sphinx!) Revelation[/card].
Thragtusk is a force to be reckoned with in the coming year. Jund decks are including it to combat both quicker decks and the mirror. Even a control decks can struggle to stabilize post-Wrath if they have to contend with a bunch of beast tokens.
As much as everyone is super hot on Jund right now, drooling over being able to jam Thragtusk, [card Olivia Voldaren]Olivia[/card], Falkenrath Aristocrat, Huntmaster of the Fells and $900 worth of mana base into sixty sleeves and call this a fun format, it may not be the best Thragtusk deck out there.
As hot as I am on Seance, which I would likely jam were I to play any Standard in the next month, going to 80 life with [card Trostani, Selesnyas Voice]Trostani[/card] and Rhox Faithmender doesn't appeal to everyone. Ryan's Seance build is a fine way to abuse Thragtusk -- he gains three life both coming and going with Trostani; he still provides his usual benefits (minus the 5/3 body) in the form of a fake Seance copy; and a three-color deck can easily come up with single green on turn 4 or 5 (Farseek likes to help with early Thragtusks).
However, there is another Thragtusk deck out there that lets you make both of the plays I want to do in Standard right now.
There is a deck that allowed people to do those things. That deck is Bant Control.
Putting a copy or four into nearly every Champs Top 8, including a win at Rhode Island and Montana Champs, Bant Control gives you access to nearly every card I want to play in Standard. It won't let you play [card Olivia Voldaren]Olivia[/card], [card Falkenrath Aristocrat]Aristocrat[/card], [card Lotleth Troll]Troll[/card], [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card] or Rakdos's Return (eww, anyway). It does, however, let you play Thragtusk, [card Sphinxs Revelation]Sphinx's (Sphinx!) Revelation[/card], Detention Sphere, Supreme Verdict, [card Jace, Architect of Thought]Jace[/card], [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card], Angel of Serenity and/or Restoration Angel.
In my analysis of the decklists from the states that bothered to submit their Top 8 lists, I have concluded that Bant Control has the worst power-to-buzz ratio, which could work in your favor. Luckily someone from New Mexico managed to get 2nd (the deck also got 8th there) and write a tournament report as well as the first place winner from Montana who also wrote a good primer.
Surprisingly, outside of the reports of players faring incredibly well at their state's Champs with various builds, the deck is being largely overlooked and I'm not sure why. Certainly this is not the only way to build, but I feel like the combination of the Jace-Tamiyo play that control decks love so much and Centaur Healer makes this the best Thragtusk deck right now and I expect it to be the premier control deck going forward. The meta is far from developed right now, and another control deck could come along and crush this one into powder, but omit this deck from your testing gauntlet at your peril.
The comment section of this article is reserved for anecdotes like "My brew beats this 90% of the time, lol." But understand that if you can beat this deck I'm happy for you, because I wouldn't sleeve up a 75 that can't. If you have to choose between beating Jund and beating this, go with beating Jund because I fully expect it to be a larger percentage of the meta. However, at least test this enough to know how it wins so you're not caught with your pants down in the Top 8.
I'm just one opinionated analyst and we have some data from over the weekend that seems to take some of the helium out of my Bant zeppelin.
There were six Jund decks in the Top 16 in Indy and only two Bant decks. Furthermore, the Top 8 had three Jund decks to zero Bant decks. What does this mean?
It could mean that Jund is a strictly better choice. However, I feel Bant has more tools to deal with what may boast the most raw power of any deck in Standard -- Reanimator variants. In the finals in Indianapolis, Harrison Deemer fought valiantly with Jund, but he was ultimately taken down by Rob Vaca's Reanimator build. Post-board, the matchup favors Reanimator and Vaca won game three easily on a mulligan to five.
Regardless, Jund is another deck you should be able to beat if you're going to bother showing up. Surprisingly, U/W/R Midrange is back, this time with Thundermaw Hellkite, another card Jund can access that Bant, er, can't. Hellkite is a real card to watch and if you can still get them around $10 (unlikely), snag them. These babies might not be done going up.
Fine, I will. Bant won the TCG Open in Minneapolis this weekend and put an aggro Bant deck (not even loosely related) in the Top 8. In fact, there was only one Jund-colored deck in the entire Top 8 in Minneapolis. The meta is anyone's guess right now, but with solid archetypes putting up good numbers, I expect it to be one of the more healthy fields we've seen.
Steve Medanic ultimately beat a 4C Reanimator deck in the finals. I realize the sample size is really small, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bant beats Reanimator more than than it loses to it and Jund loses more than it wins. That could change as people test more and sideboard better, but I feel like if Reanimator becomes a huge thing, having access to a card like Rest in Peace is going to tip the scales in Bant's favor. Don't expect Bant to stay under the radar after winning in Minneapolis.
They played Legacy in Indianapolis too, and wouldn't you know it, Michael Bernat won with High Tide. The legacy Boogeyman, RUG Delver, managed to come in 4th but was only represented by two copies in the entire Top 16. Another Top 8 with eight unique decks puts a smile on my face, and while we didn't see any wacky breakouts like Angel Stompy or 12 Post this week, Legacy is anyone's format.
Goblins is consistently out-performing Merfolk (suck it, Hosler) despite Merfolk getting a new Lord for absolutely no reason. Omnishow continues to consistently top eight as well, but the Academy Rector everyone forecast is still nowhere to be found.
Despite being garbage against the Omniscience variants of Sneak and Show, which have eschewed Sneak Attack entirely in a lot of cases, Karakas may stay a $100 card, which really bums me out considering I bought them for $45 and was stoked to out them for $75 a mere month before they hit $100. With price memory being a stronger force than logic, I don't expect Karakas to come down that much, even with the new Judge Foil set to supplement the finite supply. Karakas on an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] from Show and Tell or Sneak Attack was a solid play. Karakas on one played with Omniscience is a really bad idea.Ā With Omnitell being the most consistent variant, expect your Karakas to be a little lackluster in the future as all it's going to do now is turn their Griselbrand into a Necropotence, which I hear is still fine.
Mana Bloom and Urban Burgeoning were two cards I thought might see play in Enchantress (or at least get tested) but Drew Idoux managed a top eight without their help. Supreme Verdict, however, showed up alongside Terminus in Justin Adams' U/W Miracles build. No wonder Merfolk is having a tough time. With Cursecatcher, Force of Will and Daze impotent to stop a wrath, Merfolk is just a Goblin deck with no [card Goblin Lackey]Lackey[/card] or [card Goblin Warchief]Warchief[/card].Ā Stoneblade continues to be a deck, proving anything good enough to be banned in Standard has to be good enough for Legacy. Lauren Nolan got 2nd place with an Esper variant.
Great job, everyone!
But I didn't build the eggs deck that took down the Pro Tour so I don't get to name it.
If you wait for my Monday recap of a Pro Tour, you're doing it wrong because I could write 10,000 words about all the noteworthy things I saw on the coverage and I'm not paid nearly enough for that.
Half of the Top 8 was Jund, and there was only one Bant deck so I guess the same struggle we currently have in Standard has migrated to Modern. Modern Jund, however, has Bloodbraid Elf and that card was accidentally made a little too good and has been ruining lives since.
However, be Jund all you like, you can't win the Pro Tour if you're not prepared to beat a silly, hard-to-play combo deck that is so fragile and cold to myriad hate spells that most pros decided not to even test it. Sure the deck is cold to hate, but if no one sees you coming, that hate will be in their hotel rooms and not in their sideboards.
Stanislav Cifka took down Pro Tour Return to Ravnica with a little luck and an Eggs/Second Sunrise combo deck called Second Breakfast. Eggs has always been a deck a lot of people are fond of, but this is by far the most challenging build. Don't expect a repeat as this deck is easily hated out. This would be the Modern equivalent of Dredge, if only Dredge were hard as balls to play. The more popular it gets, the worse it does because it can only thrive where it's not expected. Regardless, Cifka had to play tight all weekend and earned every bit of the win.
I urge you to watch PT coverage, even if you only watch on Sunday, because it's wall to wall entertainment and watching the plays isn't done justice by any post-game wrap-up. I'll leave the DQ controversy for Jackie Lee's own article later this week, so with that in mind, I bid you a fond farewell.
Remember, try to find the best Thragtusk deck, be able to beat Jund in every format and remember that Eggs are like the Spanish Inquisition.
Spanish Omelet! That's a better name than Second Breakfast, too!
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Magic the Gathering is a great game, and with practice one that pays for itself. Before turning Magic the game into Magic the income stream, keep a couple of things in mind:
Lets examine these principles more closely. I owned a Beta Clockwork Beast. I always put it in trade binders, and, while it never generated any interest, it always had a spot because I fell in love with the art and the card's place in Magic history. This week I finally sold off my Beast to a dealer for six bucks. It was a long time coming.
Treat your binder like a rental property. Every slot is paying you rent. If you have cards in your binder that don't generate interest and can't keep people working through your stuff, they don't belong.
Have you ever noticed how much better Target Stores look compared to Wal-Mart Stores? Better yet, have you ever noticed how the rest of Target looks compared to the messy area dedicated to collectible trading cards at the front of the store? We all do. Wouldn't you rather shop in a better looking store?
Apply that to your binder. Here are some color coded layout examples using 9 pocket sleeves:
Ā Return to Ravnica allows you to mix and match colors and then tie them together with gold/multicolored cards. Horizontal and vertical striping is another effective way to beautify your binder.
Don't let your binder look like it's been raided or picked over. Always keep your slots full and make note of what is moving and what is not.
The better your binder looks, the easier trading becomes. And trading is what the binder is all about. If something isn't trading, it's time to move that item out and do aĀ price check. Sell anything that prices out to your satisfaction while keeping these prices in mind.
You will grind out a lot of profit by simply familiarizing yourself with binder duds that sell for "good" cash. Refreshing your binder this way also gives you great trading habits. Suddenly you want cards no one else is looking for - those cards that also happen to trade at a discount to retail. Compare this to a typical Snapcaster MageĀ trade and you'll see you've increased your return on investment AND simplified the trading process.
You want a binder that inspires awe but not shock. Sticker shock is real. Always keep a place in your binder for popular uncommons and commons. They round out trades and keep people from being intimidated while trading.
Spread card value out in a binder. You won't always know what kind of card the person on the other side of a trade is looking for, so spread out trade targets to keep them in your binder.
Split up trades into smaller parts. While looking through a binder, always keep an eye on what the other side of the trade wants. The minute you can put a deal together, stop looking and make an offer. The first trade is the hardest. If you can trade three times with the same person in the same time you could trade once, break up the trade. You build a relationship this way and can take advantage of reciprocity.
While you should never be afraid to take a big position in a single card, especially when you acquire that large position through trading, you must diligently sell down those positions OR trade into older cards with price inelasticity and high liquidity.Never let your binder reflect the size of your single card positions. No more than a play set of any card needs to be represented.
The only other hedge you have in the world of Magic finance is cash. When you are trading, always keep buylist pricing in mind. Presently Birthing PodĀ is being purchased for 2$ by a retailer that is paying 14$ for a Snapcaster Mage. That means Snapcaster's cash value it 31% discount to retail versus 25% for the Pod. There is plenty of opportunity for profit trading out of Snapcaster today and into Pod with an eye on selling out of Birthing Pod.
Birthing Pod will likely pop up in Modern, Legacy and Commander formats again and again. Selling three copies for every four acquired would allow a trader to generate income while reinvesting in their Magic inventory.
Be conservative when reinvesting cash into your Magic inventory. Unless you own a retail space you will be overpaying for sealed product. Save your cash for distressed sellers, save it to help close a favorable trade and save it to buy collections on the cheap. Using cash to speculate on Magic cards should be done as cheaply as possible and only for cards that have a long price history.
Understanding what cards can appreciate in value thanks to an unexpected events can present you with great opportunities and often cash is the fastest way to take advantage. Unbanning and similar events can effect multiple cards on the periphery. Work with retailer distrust and allow their unwillingness to fill large single card orders to force you to pick up three or four cards that will benefit from the same unbanning/event.
If you like to gamble, go out there and ask as many players as possible for their most underplayed/under-rated cards. You might get lucky and find the next Gate to Phyrexia. But even here, exercise caution. Look only to BUY the cheapest of these cards and even then limit the quantity. There are plenty of good ideas out there.
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Probably the biggest news this weekend wasn't the fact that Jund is really good in Modern - we all knew that. It was Aaron Forsythe's announcement of the Modern Masters set, which I emailed everyone about. The first spoiled card was Tarmogoyf. That gets everyone talking and we're going to talk this week about what we've deduced about the Modern Masters set - even though we only know one card for sure! There's a lot of shadow room that we can look into; find out what is and isn't there, due to the set size.
First, this set doesn't come out for another nine months. In that time, there's an entire PTQ season. They announced this set well in advance of needing to cash out and they even stacked it in the favor of the person heavily invested in Modern staples. They created a demand for the cards and gave it to you! That was certainly nice of Wizards.
Reprints are probably good for you because the Modern market is small right now and could use a bit of growth. Yes, this will probably reduce the price of cards printed in the set, but it also increases the value of all the other Modern cards in your binder. This is a good thing, as many of them are unlikely to see reprints (more on this later!). The only card we KNOW will be in the set is Tarmogoyf, at Mythic rarity. That means that there will be a Goyf every five boxes of 24 packs, which means that it will be much more rare than Goyf was during the Time Spiral prizes on MTGO. Now I know that they're two different markets, but Goyf dropped from around 65 tix to about 43 tix, a drop of about 33%. That's all! They were being given out as prizes for Cube drafts for two weeks and the price, with Goyf in the rare slot, only dropped by a third. Sure, a third is a lot, but we've got to look at this as our only historical evidence and say that if you're holding Tarmogoyfs, you will probably not see a big drop in the price of your Goyfs.
There will be 24 packs in a box at a price of $6.99. There are 36 packs of RTR in a box at $3.99 apiece. The boxes, then, are $168 instead of $143. That's not a big increase over the normal price, considering that you're going to get some really, really good cards instead of normal-powered stuff.
The average cost of a Return to Ravnica card is 26.6 cents.
The average cost of a Modern Masters card is 46.6 cents. One of those cards will be foil.
I am hopeful about the set because the cards are worth only a little under twice as much and I have a feeling that they are going to be worth, on average, a whole lot more. Let's put it this way - do you want to have the chance of opening the $50 card with mostly terrible and cheap cards in the booster? If so, you should get RTR packs. If you want to get a booster where you're much more likely to make up your cash with power uncommons, then Modern Masters is the better choice.Ā I have a strong sense that even at nearly double the price, it's going to make much more sense to crack packs of Modern Masters than it would be to crack Return to Ravnica.
The biggest problem with the Modern Masters set is that there are so few rare slots. Only 53Ā and 15 Mythics. A grand total of 68 baller, awesome reprints with no filler. There are a lot more than 68 rares played in Modern, even if you limit yourself to anything before Zendikar. How about Elspeth, Knight-Errant? She'd be a Mythic, so there's two of fifteen slots next to the green monster. Dark Confidant? Sure, and rare at best. No reason that The Greatest couldn't be a Mythic, either. There are plenty of Legends that could absorb a Mythic slot; what about Vendilion Clique? Arcbound Ravager? And then we get to the rares, which are the bread that will sop up the expense of Modern. There's been talk about the Lorwyn filter lands in it, but that would make up nearly a fifth of the rares with just lands! I think it's safe to rule them out. Do as Sig says and get your Twilight Mires.
My most likely candidates for reprint as rares are Noble Hierarch, Cryptic Command, Vendilion Clique, Maelstrom Pulse, Knight of the Reliquary and Dark Confidant. Aaron hinted at Faeries battles in limited, which makes me think that Scion of Oona will show up, too. Those rare slots are going to fill up quickly. The spoiled art is obviously City of Brass, so there's another slot that gets filled. As an aside, don't we already have enough Cities in print? Are six editions not enough?
If you've been flipping collections lately, I'm sure you know the joy of seeing Spell Snares in a box of junk. Those are ten dollar bills! There's a large pile of uncommons in Modern that are worth several dollars and I target them as most likely to drop in value. These include Kitchen Finks, Remand, Spell Pierce, Bloodbraid Elf and Desperate Ritual. Finks seem most likely, where a card like Desperate Ritual, with an obscure keyword, might not get consideration. We will also probably see Aether Vial reprinted again, though it just came out recently in the From The Vaults set.
While you are only opening a single rare, you're going to see three uncommons out of a pool of sixty in each pack. Math time, that means that you'll see a full set of sixty uncommons in each box (since each will have 72 uncommons, total). The price of the entire product must remain below $7 for people to avoid cracking and reselling, so the uncommons are going to suck up a lot of that price and drop down correspondingly. This is where you must be conscious of what is going to be reprinted and sell out accordingly.
Really, what commons see play in Modern? What's worth reprinting? I'm grasping for what any of those 106 commons could be. Lava Spike comes to mind. Little else does. If you've got an idea on this, I'd love to hear it.
Chronicles is a bad set because most of the cards that got reprinted are awful.
Let's put aside the few, like City of Brass, Blood Moon and Tormod's Crypt, that would have been reprinted later anyway.
Do you know what prices were like for Legends cards? Even the worst Legends monsters were worth a lot of money and that's because Magic cards were bad and Magic players were bad. Let me give you a perfect example: Gabriel Angelfire. That is a bad card. That Angel was worth $40+ in Legends before his reprint because it was cool. Chronicles dropped its price to a few bucks and that's good in the long run because it just sped up what was going to happen to him anyway! There is no critical, competitive demand for cards like Gabriel and a $40 price tag would be unsustainable. The Elder Dragon Legends took a big hit in price and those are the most likely candidates for "would have retained set value," but come on - is someone gonna shell out $50 for Vaevictus Asmadi? As Magic players got smarter, a lot of hyped Legends cards plunged in value - even the ones that didn't see a reprint. Nobody is beating a path to Sunastian Falconer's door.
Modern Masters isn't going to be like Chronicles because the cards aren't going to suck. Pulling the all-stars from Modern history and reprinting them is going to be awesome. It's not going to have a lot of filler - we're looking at designers with four Master's Editions under their belts, so they know how to make good limited environments and how to rein in the Wall of Kelp reprints. Chronicles was almost all unsustainable filler and the money cards aren't the cards that were expensive in the first place - they're tournament-staple cards that people want older versions of. Modern Masters is going to be full of cards that you will actually want to open.
Hoard it. Buy it. Get as much preordered as you can. You are betting that each pack will contain $7+ worth of goodies, and I am confident that will be the case. This will be a popular product. This won't move the markets too much. That means that Kitchen Finks at $5 now may still be $2 later - how many power uncommons do you need to pull to see free packs? This is an exciting product and it's going to do a lot for Modern. Everyone is going to be surprised at how quickly this sells. Draft sets are $21 pre-tax at MSRP and with usual drafts going for $15 at many FNMs, this isn't much of a luxury good to stretch for. This is really big deal.
Until next week,
Doug Linn
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I have every intent of writing an article to discuss one of the safest MTG investments in the game: basic lands.
Always in demand and always legal in every format, basic lands provide a steadfast foundation to a long-term portfolio. Even within such a narrow area, there is an array of possible investments ranging from the obvious (such as Unhinged foil basics) to the more obscure (such as Wald).
Itās difficult to draft up this article with all the action that has taken place this past weekend. We had a Modern Pro Tour with some interesting breakouts, another SCG Open with some surprisingly absent cards from the Top 8, and we had one of the most significant new set announcements made in Magic ever.
And then this was spoiled:
And thatās when I knew I simply could not ignore all the latest financially relevant news to satisfy my own flair for creativity. My article will have to wait yet again ā at least itās one of those articles that will remain relevant for a long time.
Pro Tour events have the tendency to move the market more than weekly Star City Games Opens. The masses recognize that if the Pros are willing to play given cards, then those cards are certainly worthy for their own decks. Thus when hundreds of Pro Players congregate in one place to play a major event, people take notice. And thanks to live broadcasting, everyone can be up to date on the latest deck tech from the comfort of their living room.
To begin, letās take a look at the Top 8 breakdown. Itās interesting to notice that only one deck appears in multiples:
Jund ā 3
Robots - 1
Second Breakfast / Eggs ā 1
RUG Valakut ā 1
Infect ā 1
UW Aggro Control ā 1
While the variety is surprising, the absence of some archetypes is equally noteworthy. I donāt see any Pyromancer Ascension decks. Strategies involving Birthing Pod or Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker are also missing. And what happened to that ābreakoutā deck that could win on Turn 3?
Well, the Twitter buzz on this deck, which relied upon Nivmagus Elemental, rapidly went from this:
To this:
Unlike the Blazing Shoal deck from a couple Modern tournaments ago, the Nivmagus Elemental deck could not handle the most ubiquitous deck of the format: Jund. Hence we see three Jund decks in the Top 8 and zero Nivmagus decks.
Needless to say, the Modern format is still maturing much like the new Standard. Going deep into strategies that rely on such a glass cannon is quite risky and most combo decks are likely to be hit or miss as the format evolves.
Looking at the other Pro Tour top performers, it seems clear that we should be focusing on steadfast strategies such as Jund, Robots, and UW builds for pickups. Or should we?
The other major news of the weekend came from Aaron Forsythe himself, live from the Pro Tour in Seattle. There he revealed to the world the first all-reprint set in quite some time: Modern Masters.
This limited print run set will contain all reprints from 8th Edition to Alara block and will focus on increasing availability of Modern cards. MSRP is $6.99 and with the given print run Iām willing to wager that packs will actually sell at an even higher price. All of this is being done to carefully control the amount of reprints made and protect the financial integrity of the secondary market.
Without such caution, weād have another Chronicles on our hand. For those who may not remember, Chronicles was Wizards of the Coastās attempt to increase the availability of many desirable cards from early Magic expansions. This included Arabian Nights, Legends, Antiquities and The Dark. The financial impact of this set was devastating since it was printed by the boatload. Even now, 17 years later, there is very little in Chronicles of financial relevance. Star City Games currently buys eight cards of the 125-card set above bulk pricing, making it one of the least valuable sets ever printed.
I do not expect Wizards to make this same mistake again. They learned a great deal from the Chronicles backlash, and the limited print run and higher MSRP is implemented to address the risk of an all-reprint set.
With this announcement, all the Jund speculation targets have suddenly become speculative at best. Tarmogoyf is already confirmed and I wouldnāt be surprised to see Dark Confidant make an appearance as well.
Nothing from 8th edition to Alara Reborn is immune to reprints. Therefore even though the release of Modern Masters isnāt until summer 2013, speculating on these cards for profit may not be the best strategy moving forward. Youāve got a full PTQ season to sell your extras for profit and make some quick flips. After that, expect values to drop simply due to panic selling.
There are some cards that may still be worth looking at from more recent sets. Fetch Lands will not be in Modern Masters since they were printed in Zendikar. And with Jund being a mainstay, Verdant Catacombs seems like a solid investment. Inkmoth Nexus and Mox Opal are two cards significantly off their financial peak that wonāt see a reprint in Modern Masters. These should also be safe.
I also want to touch on the Top 8 results at the SCG Open. It seems Jund has a significant place in Standard as well, with three Jund decks making Top 8 and two making Top 4. The other two decks in the Top 4: Frites. Rounding out the Top 8 we have two U/W/R Midrange decks and one G/W Aggro deck.
Notice whatās suspiciously absent? Miracles! What happened to this beloved strategy? Has the metagame evolved? I am glad to have unloaded my 20+ copies of Terminus. And while its price has been on the rise, I think Entreat the Angels has just about hit its peak ā I would recommend selling your extras. Hopefully I donāt even have to waste more than once sentence telling you to sell Bonfire of the Damned (chart from blacklotusproject.com).
On the other hand, it looks like Huntmaster of the Fells is here to stay. Iām surprised this guy hasnāt gone up in price yet. All three Jund decks that made Top 8 ran the full set maindeck. How Thragtusk, a core set rare reprinted in an Event Deck, is $20 while Huntmaster, a Mythic Rare from an under-drafted set, is $18 is beyond me.
If Jund remains dominant in Standard, I think Huntmaster of the Fells has to go up in price at least a few bucks. I wouldnāt buy 100 copies but I would trade for these and pick up a few extras at auction.
There are actually a few other noteworthy cards from this Jund deck. Dreadbore is sold out on Star City Games at $7.99. Sever the Bloodline has finally seen some price movement and is sold out at $1.99. There are still ample copies below $1 on Card Shark and eBay auctions are ending in the $1 range, despite the cheapest Buy It Now listing has them at $2 each (chart from blacklotusproject.com).
Finally, Angel of Serenity has once again proven its strength. The card is a major component of the new Frites desk, and Star City Games has been selling through copies handily at $24.99. Sheāll hit $29.99 before she hits $19.99.
What may also be relevant is a card that can combat Angel of Serenity: Evil Twin. This dark Clone made itself known in one of the Star City Games feature matches. He may not spike a ton, but if people wonāt give you Sever the Bloodline as a throw-in anymore, I would target Evil Twin instead.
Magic is more popular now than ever before, and itās great to see Wizards of the Coast keep up with the hype. By generating this buzz with great Pro Tour coverage, exciting new product announcements, and terrific new Standard sets, they are āstriking while the iron is hotā. The result: this game will continue to grow in popularity.
Financially, this will ultimately be a good thing. Some cards may drop in price with reprints and metagame changes, but the overall trend will increase as demand increases. If you have a diverse portfolio, your collection will inevitably rise in value as demand for cards increases. Should new players get into older formats, older cards will especially go up in price. Modern is just a stepping stone to Legacy, after all.
Net, this is a great time to hold Magic Cards and speculate on them. Iām excited for the ride and I hope you are as well!
-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8
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(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)
Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language
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At the time of this writing, itās PT Sunday and some of the gameās best are hours away from battling for the $40,000 first prize.
Between the unbanning of Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle, the release of Return to Ravnica, and the announcement of Modern Masters, this has been quite the weekend for the Modern format as a whole. The nature of the Modern Masters set and the distinct lack of information available makes me hesitant to recommend aggressively buying cards over a certain price threshold that could be reprinted.
This make the best investment, with Modern in mind, the Zendikar fetchlands due to their necessity and Zendikarās exclusion from the Modern Masters set itself. However, there is still a lot of information to be had from this Pro Tour, particularly the top 8 lists, which give us a reasonable representation of the field as a whole: lots of Jund, and a menagerie of everything else.
Being part of the most popular archetype at the PT, one of the real winners of the tournament would have been Blackcleave Cliffs, as a 4 of across the board in all 3 top 8 lists.Even without the announcement of Modern Masters, however, the number of Jund players in PTQ level events is lower than in professional ones with card availability and overall cost being the culprits.
As such, overall demand for Jund staples will be lower than one would expect, given its results this weekend, come the Modern PTQ season this winter. Thus, the potential profits will be much lower. I would put my money elsewhere.
Jund is generally considered a known quantity, as everyone remembers various horror stories attached to Bloodbraid Elf. However, one Return to Ravnica card may have changed the archetype going forward.
Deathrite Shamanās viability in the format given its predication on fetch land mana bases should come as no surprise, and its ability to interact with an opponentās graveyard is particularly relevant against the U/R Storm decks. It was in two of the Jund lists that made top 8, including David Ochaoās list that ran Geralfās Messenger over the more common Kitchen Finks, a move that takes the deck in a decidedly more aggressive direction.
I think now is a great time to āsell high,ā given the hype the card received during coverage. It is still a fringe card in Standard and is not worth the $10 some retailers are selling it for, especially considering the set is still actively being used for Limited events.
This deck went 9-1 in the Swiss on its way to the 1st overall seed in the top 8. There will be demand for this deck going forward, not only based on the hype it received during coverage, but also its relatively inexpensive cost (beyond the mana base, the most expensive card is Lotus Bloom, which is the best speculation target within the deck given its pseudo casual appeal).
I expected budget Modern decks to be very popular this PTQ season, given the financial uncertainty surrounding so much of the format, making Eggs and Storm staples very strong short term investments (3-4 month holds until Modern season begins).
Valakut was unbanned and the world did not end. This is a good thing, unless of course you own a lot of Prismatic Omens, which Shi Tian Leeās deck didnāt play.
Given the presence of the Shocklands in Standard, this deck is actually much less expensive than it appears and will be a prime candidate for Standard players looking to pick up Modern without spending much extra money.
Scapeshift looks like a good short term pick up. And depending on its results during the PTQ season, it could spike much higher than it already did after Valakutās unbanning.
I wonder if Wizardās R&D will come to regret the Infect mechanic.
It never feels fair when it's good and no one cares when itās awful. Kelvin Chewās deck is mostly inexpensive commons and uncommons, alongside fetch lands.
The only card that stands out financially to me is Inkmoth Nexus. Weāve already seen this card hit $10+ during Standard, and it could absolutely do that again come the PTQ season as one of the only expensive cards in an otherwise very cheap deck.
This deck is unfortunately uninteresting to me outside of Celestial Colonnade and Seachrome Coast, both of which have a lot of room to grow if this becomes the pseudo control deck of choice in Modern.
The Playerās Championship showed us the problem it has with the Jund matchup, but that will be less relevant in the coming months for the reasonās I already brought up. I expect Seachrome Coast to retail at $7-8 during PTQ Season, while Celestial Colonnade should hit $5.
Serum Visions and Inquisition of Kozilek are two non deck specific staples that demand will only increase for as Standard players make their way to Modern over the next few years. Whether youāre looking to flip them during the PTQ season or hold them longer, these two cards are great inexpensive investments.
~
This weekend was a new beginning for Modern as Wizards does its best to make the format a year round fixture rather than a burden tournament players must overcome, like Extended was towards the end of its existence. I assume that more things will be done beyond Modern Masters to achieve this goal, and in the long term I feel good about the future of the format, which makes me feel safe in investing in it.
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We have a ton of information coming in now, with Return to Ravnica out in the world for two weeks. Ravnica has been as awesome as advertised, and itās worth noting that the set is ājust going crazy,ā as per newly-hired full time WOTC Gavin Verhey, who we had on the podcast (Brainstorm Brewery) last week.
This is good news for us. At the basic level, more people playing Magic means more demand for cards, and that means continued rising prices.
But thatās not why weāre here this week. This week, we have States lists to break down! Oklahoma States was a little disappointing, with only 70 or so people playing and a very, very poor prize payout. My friend ended up in 9th place on breakers and got exactly 0 packs for his troubles, despite the $25 entry fee. I may be wrong, but the word was that it was just one prize pack per person in the tournament, which would just be greedy by the store, so letās hope that wasnāt the case.
According to TCGPlayer, the current five top Standard decks (in order of Top 8s in States and Opens) are the following:
-Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Bant Control (27)
-Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Jund (24)
-Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā American Control (Miracles) (20)
-Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Selesnya (18)
-Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Rakdos Zombies (14)
Notably absent of that is Reanimator, a deck Iām going to talk quite a bit about today. But more on that later. Letās look at these decks and see what we can deduce.
For starters, the most common among all of these decks is Thragtusk. And here, I must eat a little crow. I pegged this as an $10 dollar card in my M13 set review, and Iāve already discussed why that was wrong. In brief, itās because Core Set Rares have demonstrated an ability to stay higher than a Rare outside of an expansion set. Think Phantasmal Image last year. The reason for this is because the set isnāt opened as long and doesnāt sell nearly as much as an expansion.
At this moment, Thragtusk is basically $25. Iām safely calling this its ceiling. As far as I can recall, exactly two rares in the post-Mythic era have held above $20, Snapcaster Mage and Cavern of Souls. Thragtusk is great, but doesnāt see much play in any other format, and the metagame can possibly adapt around it.
But itās not going anywhere, thatās for sure. The card does so much that you want it to, and itās good in any matchup. I think $15+ is probably a safe bet for the next nine months or so, but if youāre in it just for cash, youāre best off getting out now or in another week or so when everyone finally realized how far the card has jumped.
As for the second-place deck in the tournament, I predicted a few weeks back that Jund would become the best deck in the format, and that certainly appears to be close to being true so far. That means things like Olivia and Mizzium Mortars are probably still safe pickups, as is Huntmaster of the Fells. Why itās an $18 card from Dark Ascension and Geist is $30 from Innistrad, I do not know. But I think Huntmaster has some upside to it still, even if itās not as much as the first time I called it (back before PT: Dark Ascension, when it was about $8).
A lot of the Miracles decks from States have started to adopt the finisher I called the sleeper of the set in Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenious. As Slaughter Games (another card worth grabbing cheap) increases in sideboard play to name Entreat the Angels, Niv-Mizzet is going to see more and more play. And, in some ways, heās better than Entreat. You wonāt get as many free wins as you do from Angels, but you are immune to Mortars and he will take over the board.
Niv is at $8 on TCGPlayer, and he may have a little bit farther to fall before the spike comes (which it will). Iām liking these around $7-8 in trade right now.
Next up is Reanimator, and more importantly a card Iāve been really high on for the last 10 days or so.
Angel of Serenity
Remember when SCG was preselling these at $6? Crazy. Itās up to $22 on TCGPlayer, and I donāt think itās done. Itās a 4-of in the graveyard decks, and itās been creeping into just about every other deck that can support it as well. $30 or even more on a spike is not at all out of the question. From my experience at States, people havenāt quite caught onto this one yet, so Iām looking to grab every single one I can around $20 or so in trade.
For the same reasons, Griselbrand is also a solid pickup. Itās got the Eternal-playable thing going for it as well, and thereās not any Avacyn Restored thatās going to be opened anytime soon, so this seems like another safe move.
As for the GW decks, Sigarda, Host of Herons is up to $10 on TCGPlayer as I predicted a few months back. This Angel is the real deal against the Jund decks, which have basically no answers to it if theyāre not running Nighthawks. Right now Sigarda is only being played in small numbers, but I expect that to continue to grow going forward, and thereās no reason Sigarda should drop below $8-10 anytime soon.
While weāre on the subject, if you want a āpenny stockā pick of the week, so to speak, there was a Selesnya deck that top 8āed with multiple copies of Deadbridge Goliath. Itās not a card we usually talk about, but playing a 5/5 on Turn 3 after a 4/4 on Turn 2 is kind of a beating, not to mention the scavenge. This type of build is pretty weak to Wraths, so Iām not convinced itāll be a big player going forward, but Goliath is under a dollar on TCGPlayer, so itās a good target for throw-ins in case it happens.
Sublime Archangel could really see some big spikes, considering what Thragtusk has done so far. These GW decks are actually the face of aggro moving forward I think, and Angel on Turn 4 is an absurd beating. $20 right now, but if it gets any more high-profile exposure it could move much more than that.
Thundermaw Hellkite is also starting to see more and more play. If Thragtusk is more than $20, then this could realistically jump that high or higher very soon if play starts to pick up. Keep an eye on it.
There are a few cards I donāt like right now. Chief among them is Zombies, a deck that is having plenty of trouble as we move into the format, as predicted. Between Trostani, Thragtusk, Nighthawk, Reanimator decks and a host of other effective cards against the archetype, the GB version is effectively dead. It simply canāt consistently beat the field. I feel like the Red versions are doing better because they are a little more aggressive and have the reach in the form of Burn that the GB builds do not.
That said, I donāt really like anything out of the Zombie decks right now, especially the lands. Iām more than happy to trade Woodland Cemetery for the lands that donāt have guilds yet, specifically Clifftop Retreat and Hinterland Harbor, the cheapest of the Innistrad duals left.
Jace is also likely topped out. I called the card in my set review as being better than people think, and that turned out to be true. That said, I still donāt think itās $50, as much as this set will be opened. I see it settling to $30-40 over the next couple of months.
Another card to get rid of if you haven't already is Bonfire. I suggested a while back that it was topped out, and that certainly appears to be the case since it's barely seeing any play right now.
Standard is certainly starting to sort itself out, and if I had to make a prediction I would say that Jund will continue to put up numbers. The deck is very adaptable and probably has the highest average power level between its cards, giving it the range to fight against both the Aggro and Control decks of the format.
Whew, there you go. Iāve certainly revised a few predictions since my set review, since prices on Rares seem to be going higher than they historically have since the introduction of Mythics. I can only attribute this to the increased player base, and it will be interesting to see six months from now if these prices can hold. If so, I may be forced to revise some of my longstanding heuristics for determining card prices, because just a couple of years ago seeing multiple rares top $10 for months at a time was unheard of.
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88
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Before the Return to Ravnica (RtR) prerelease weekend, it was anticipated that there would be a small window in which the newest printing of the shocklands was in tight supply. However, during this time all previous versions would be legal for Standard play. As it turned out, Standard rotated after the downtime of October 10th, despite no availability of RtR cards whatsoever! Prereleases only began at midnight of October the 12th.
This meant there was a period of a few days when online Standard was an obscure format featuring Innistrad, Dark Ascension, Avacyn Restored, M13 and half of the shocklands (plus a few other minor reprints if you want to be picky).
Once prereleases started firing the online format began to align properly with the paper format, but until then the first printings of RtR shocklands were the only available copies. Blood Crypt, Hallowed Fountain, Overgrown Tomb, Steam Vents and Temple Garden all saw a period of high demand which was mostly met by supply from the original Ravnica block.
After the latest round of Ravnica-Guildpact-Dissension (RGD) booster draft queues came down in the first week of September, the shocklands had all taken a hit in price. In light of this strange window when RtR would be Standard legal but not widely available, there appeared to be an opportunity to buy up original copies of the RtR shocklands. The plan would be to sell them to players eager to start playing Fall Standard immediately after rotation. This strategy was formulated within a QS forum discussion found here.
The shocklands from Guildpact and Dissension are more expensive due to being from 2nd and 3rd sets in a large-small-small block structure. Hallowed Fountain, for example, was routinely over 20 tix during Modern season. So it seemed like the cheaper shocklands from the eponymous Ravnica set were the only ones that promised a good chance of profit.
Trying to sell old versions of rares for more than 10 tix seemed very foolish considering 10 tix is the approximate ceiling of a rare under the current rarity structure. For the most expensive shocklands I discarded the strategy as too risky and narrowed the list of targets down to the Golgari and Selesnya shocklands.
Presented below are the trade book entries for my recent buying and selling of Overgrown Tomb.Ā I made a profit of 59.01 tix, a return on investment (ROI) of 35%. I bought all of these copies within 36 hours after the RGD draft queues ended on September 5th.
Notice that the price on this card increased by about 25% in the two days following the end of the queues. This was due to the spoiling of cards like Vraska the Unseen, Lotleth Troll and Abrupt Decay, which were all known by September 6th. The spoilers added considerable hype to the B/G colour combination which already looked strong with the zombie shell carrying over to Fall Standard. This hype fueled a rapid price increase and by the 6th of September there were precious few copies of Overgrown Tomb left for purchase at attractive prices.
| Card | Buy Price | Quantity | Total | Date | Sell Price | Quantity | Total | Date |
| Overgrown Tomb | 5.3 | 4 | 21.2 | 9/5/2012 | 8.8 | 3 | 26.4 | 10/8/2012 |
| Overgrown Tomb | 5.85 | 4 | 23.4 | 9/5/2012 | 8.09 | 5 | 40.45 | 10/11/2012 |
| Overgrown Tomb | 6.10 | 4 | 24.4 | 9/5/2012 | 8.62 | 8 | 68.96 | 10/11/2012 |
| Overgrown Tomb | 6.39 | 2 | 12.78 | 9/5/2012 | 8.89 | 1 | 8.89 | 10/11/2012 |
| Overgrown Tomb | 5.5 | 2 | 11 | 9/5/2012 | 9.2 | 9 | 82.8 | 10/11/2012 |
| Overgrown Tomb | 5.75 | 2 | 11.5 | 9/5/2012 | ||||
| Overgrown Tomb | 8.05 | 4 | 32.2 | 9/6/2012 | ||||
| Overgrown Tomb | 8 | 4 | 32 | 9/6/2012 | ||||
| Total/Average | 6.48 | 26 | 168.49 | 8.75 | 26 | 227.5 |
Presented below are the entries for Temple Garden. I made a profit of 70.95 tix, with a 33% ROI. In contrast to Overgrown Tomb, there was little hype for the Selesnya guild early on. But in the end it was nearly just as profitable from an ROI perspective, and gross profits were higher because more copies were available for purchase at attractive prices. Instead of a little over six playsets, I was able to buy ten.
| Card | Buy Price | Quantity | Total | Date | Sell Price | Quantity | Total | Date |
| Temple Garden | 5.1 | 4 | 20.4 | 9/5/2012 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 10/1/2012 |
| Temple Garden | 5.04 | 4 | 20.16 | 9/5/2012 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 10/2/2012 |
| Temple Garden | 4.96 | 4 | 19.84 | 9/5/2012 | 7.17 | 8 | 57.36 | 10/4/2012 |
| Temple Garden | 5.06 | 4 | 20.24 | 9/5/2012 | 6.5 | 7 | 45.5 | 10/8/2012 |
| Temple Garden | 5.29 | 4 | 21.17 | 9/5/2012 | 7.64 | 19 | 145.16 | 10/11/2012 |
| Temple Garden | 5.6 | 7 | 39.2 | 9/6/2012 | ||||
| Temple Garden | Ā 5.5 | 5 | 27.5 | 9/6/2012 | ||||
| Temple Garden | 5.54 | 4 | 22.16 | 9/6/2012 | ||||
| Temple Garden | 5.6 | 4 | 22.4 | 9/7/2012 | ||||
| Total/Average | 5.33 | 40 | 213.07 | 7.10 | 40 | 284.02 |
Note that selling for this card began well in advance of online prereleases. This was partly due to the relative number of playsets acquired, but mostly because my IRL schedule had become quite busy. Selling more copies of a card in a given time frame means more work, and with a time crunch looming, it became a priority to get out of the position before the weekend. It's important to note that this was a short term trade. Holding onto depreciating assets was not in the plan, so the trade had to be exited before the start of release events opened a flood of supply.
This trade is currently repeatable with Watery Grave and Sacred Foundry. The exact same market dynamics will occur again when Gatecrash is released in early February, with spoiler season beginning in January.Ā It's reasonable to expect a similar build up in hype once spoilers begin and thus the opportunity to sell older versions of the shocklands at a profit will repeat itself.
Again, the relative prices of the cards in question favor the cheaper shocklands from the original Ravnica set. Purchase both the Dimir and Boros shocklands and hold until the online Gatecrash prerelease. In the lead up to the prerelease, sell into the wave of interest that comes from the new set.
Do not make the mistake of thinking that February is a long way off and that there will be a better time to buy these two cards. Interest in Modern will soon ramp up and once PTQ season is underway there will be an in-season premium on shocklands.
Sacred Foundry is used in Zoo and Boros, which means it will rise from the 5-6 tix range where it is currently to the 6-7 tix range. In the past Watery Grave has seen much higher in-season prices than Sacred Foundry, though right now it's not as widely played in Modern. It typically appears as a one-of in U/W decks to enable Lingering Souls or Unburial Rites. (You can check out the latest Modern deck lists from MTGO on the mothership.)
As shown in the chart above, the price for both shocklands increased just prior to the start of the PTQ season. This year, expect price increases to be sustained as the early part of the season will overlap with the release of Gatecrash. The in-season premium on these cards will reduce the potential profit on this trade enough to drive it from good to marginal.
A good practice in any potential trade is to identify the risk involved. Two sources of risk to identify here are reprint risk and a reduction in demand. The reprint risk on these cards is low because a reprint would mean the return of RGD queues smack dab in the middle of RtR as the newest release. I put the chance of this occurring as small. Demand should be stable-to-increasing due to the upcoming Modern season. Overall, the downside risk on this trade is minimal.
Speculating on MTGO real estate is consistently profitable if you can identify prices that are cheap relative to expected future prices. Current prices on Cardbot for Sacred Foundry and Watery Grave as of October 13th are 5.38 and 6.43 respectively. Buy Sacred Foundry and Watery Grave over the coming weeks while players are preoccupied with RtR release events. In the week leading up to the MTGO Gatecrash prerelease events, sell your copies into the hype.
Paying up to 8 tix on either should still lead to a small profit, but lower prices are obviously preferable. Getting in now ensures the establishment of a profitable position and avoids getting stung by higher in-season prices down the road.
