menu

Insider: Where to Begin — Part I

Posted on by Sebastien Morin

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Since we have received comments asking us to write an article on how to begin trading on MTGO, we decided to make this topic our first priority. It ended up somewhat large, so we split it into two parts, which will run this week and next.

For this week, we take a look at a few important decisions one has to make prior to investing. Next week's article will cover in depth the most common mistakes one is likely to commit while still getting used to MTGO. For people already trading online, we hope that getting back to basics might help you re-evaluate your trading habits. We will get into a more theoretical approach after these two articles.

Why Do I Want to Trade on MTGO?

When we first started trading, we had different reasons to do so. Jeff wanted to play Legacy and his goal was to trade in order to stockpile a certain amount of tix, to finally get to build his dream deck. Sebastien was in fact trying to pay for his addiction to drafting. His aim was to make enough profits to avoid injecting additional personal money into his account. In the end, we both aimed to profit from MTGO's secondary market in order to afford playing Magic at no additional cost.

What we want to point out here is that at first, we loved playing the game and then we figured it would be best if we could play it for free. If you intend to trade on MTGO only to make money, you might find it too time consuming and somewhat boring, and feel like quitting.

One of the best ways to make your collection grow is to play with the cards you are speculating on. This will have two advantages. First, if you're losing a few tickets on one of your calls, it will be easier for you not to panic since you actually play with them in a deck. Second, you will be better able to evaluate the metagame in which your cards are evolving. This is crucial since it’s really the metagame that determines for the most part the fluctuations on cards prices.

A side note here for the paper traders: the metagame can be really different between MTGO and paper, so be really careful when you make the switch. Also, the metagame switches a lot faster online than in paper, forcing you to adjust more frequently and to watch price indices regularly.

If you can't spend much time watching the classifieds, or if you can't play much while you wait for your posted ads to hit, maybe MTGO isn't much better than paper. On the other hand, if you can spend a few hours a week applying the routine we have, you might make some significant profits.

How Much Do I Want to Invest?

This is one of the most important questions we would have to ask ourselves, were we to start all over again. In hindsight, we can see starting with a much bigger investment would have been preferable. We started our account with roughly 500$ each, which in the end restricted us in many ways. The amount you invest will change drastically the ways you can trade. The bigger the bankroll you have, the more flexibility you end up with.

From our point of view, the first goal is to reach 1000 tix. For those who can already afford it, this amount should provide a good start while letting you get a feel for all the strategies we will talk about in our future articles. Also you won’t have to spend countless hours grinding. For those who can’t, let's see how you can make your bankroll grow.

Step I: Aim for Short-Term

First you have to aim for a short-term, grind-like approach. To us, short-term specs are cards you buy at the start of a spike, for a quick flip, or cards you buy during spoiler season because a spoiled card combos well with your target.

Another avenue is to use bots' price discrepancies to your advantage. For example, sometimes you will find bots selling cards for 12 tix when another chain is buying at 12.5. During prerelease events or even during frenzies, there is often room for you to buy a card at 10 tix and flip them 11 tix the same night. We spent countless hours doing that at first, grinding 10-20$ a night, slowly growing our bankroll, one ticket at a time.

We remember a night where we bought 70 Geist of Saint Traft (at 6.5 each!) from people and from other bots to resell them back to other bots for 0.4-0.5 profit per copy. It was instant quick flips all night long and we ended with a big 30 ticket profit. This is really time consuming and the reward is not so high. But if you want to build from nothing, it’s a good way to grow your bankroll. As of today, with the bankroll we have, we would have been able to keep all 70 Geist of Saint Traft and made something like 1400 tixs instead of 30!

Nevertheless, grinding has its uses. You practice reading the market and also get used to the many bot chains out there. Such experience might in fact explain in part why we are good traders now.

Step 2: Build and Play the Top Decks

Second, if you can afford some spare time to play in addition to trading (which is what we recommend you to do), you should always scan the Daily Events results to find out about the most popular decks. If you stay ahead of the curve, when players catch up with the most successful decks, you will meet increased demand for the cards you already own. A great deal of players simply copycat Daily Events results. As a matter of fact, it's precisely how Jeff built his entire collection and his bankroll (prior to the decision to begin trading), as he just kept playing the new popular decks.

The Sites You Have to Know

Note we are not affiliated with any of these sites and will not benefit from mentioning them here.

If you plan on a move towards MTGO, you have to use the following sources of information:

MTGGolfish.com

The owner of this site has made excellent additions to his price tracking device over the last year. From this site, you can track the price variations of most cards, going back up to two years. You can also check what the metagame looks like for any given format, which is definitely useful for predicting the next big thing to happen. The Movers and Shakers tab will let you know which cards are on the rise. The My Collection tab lets you select up to 50 specific cards to track. This way, we can follow and integrate our targets into our spreadsheets, instead of searching for them one by one.

Mtgotraders.com and their Hotlist

Mtgotraders (along with cardbot and marlonbot) is one of the bigger players out there. Their influence on the market is so heavy they can fix prices. Since so many players turn to them to either buy or sell their cards, their bots seem to work with wider margins. Checking their Hotlist regularly will often let you know what's getting hot on the market, and might help you grind a few extra tickets. When buying your cards, you should always be looking to buy under their selling price.

Supernovabots.com

What's interesting about this site is the fact that they publish an updated pricelist every fifteen minutes. You can always search for a card (Ctrl+F) and check what their buy/sell prices are, either for regular or foil copies. Sometimes they offer significant discounts compared to mtgotraders and we can then benefit from such price discrepancies.

Mtgolibrary.com

Many smaller bots post their prices on wikiprice, which is a good way to verify if a bot is lagging behind and still selling at a discount while most of the other bots have increased their prices. It is also a good way to buy extra copies on a particular call because it is often the last place people look. For example, Matt Lewis once suggested grabbing Creeping Tar Pit prior to Modern season. While prices had increased all over the market, we found an extra 40 copies there.

Wizard's What's Happening, and Calendar pages

Here you can get the Daily Events results. More important though is the Calendar page, where you will get updates on the upcoming MOCS seasons, which will determine the next format to see increased play online. Finally, from Wizard's page you can find links that refer you to the live coverage of major paper events, which is another huge resource for speculating. We plan to cover this area in a later article.

The Bot Chains You Have to Know

This old post on the forums is worth a quick read. To sum it up, here are a few bot chains that are linked together or which use the same engine. To find them in the classifieds, use the following key-words in the search field:

  • Cardbot, mtgotraders, marlon, creature, hotlistbot -- Some other bots copy their pricelist, such as valuebot. This is important, because they can copy, but they don't adjust their price. So, knowing which bots react first lets you know where to buy from at first, if you plan on grabbing many copies (valuebot in this example).
  • Supernovabot
  • Clanteam
  • BCCard
  • Aboshan (in the search field: We Pay)
  • Mtgo_Bazaar
  • Cardmech (they are pricey)
  • Academy
  • Cardnexus, Cardhoarder.
  • LOL
  • Stdbot
  • Cardfiend
  • Xtremebot, Foreverbuyer, Gamingbot, cardcastle, mtgocardpalace, readybot
  • Here is an interesting one: You can type "Regular" in the search field. This engine is awesome to buy tons of bulk rares for cheap, and they also sell good cards at a small discount too.
  • Goatbots (quite new, and running smoothly so far)

When you're looking to buy many copies of a card, it's important to know which bots are linked together. You want to buy from certain places first, then lastly hit up the bigger bots such as cardbot and mtgotraders. If you do it the other way around, mtgotraders and cardbot will adjust their sell prices, causing other bots to copy their pricelist, therefore restricting your buying options. We will write an article specifically about how to take a position on a card while successfully avoiding a reaction from the bots.

Our Calls for the Week

We couldn't let you go without a few good old Insider calls. Don't just go buy an account and load up on these yet. That's a mistake we'll talk about next week. For now, just note the following:

Thespian Stage: A rare land at bulk price that might see some applications someday. Or not. But at 0.05 tix, there is little to no risk.

Leyline of Sanctity: On a steady decline right now. This card is a staple during Legacy and Modern seasons. If you can grab yours at 1-1.25, you are almost guaranteed a 2-3 tix profits in a few months.

Underground Sea: There is an alternate art being prepared for this card. It occurred twice before, with Force of Will and Savannah. The alternate arts were released before Wizards actually announced them as MOCS rewards. If this is a trend, we can reasonably expect an alternate art Underground Sea being rewarded soon. Given the fact this card has never been this expensive before, if you are holding a few copies, it could be a good time to sell. Maybe we can also expect more alternate art duals in the future.

Prime Speaker Zegana: With the new Mana Drain, Plasm Capture, coming soon, there is some talk on the forums that this card could see increased play. For now, we are slowly buying below 5 tix.

Wilt-Leaf Liege: Take note of its actual price! This card came out of the blue last Modern season and proved to be quite strong. It reached 13.6 tix. At 2.5 tix, we feel it is a strong buy.

Glen-Elendra Archmage: With the recent cube events, this card's price has dropped quite a lot. It is probably a good time to consider buying it back.

Coming up next week:

Where to Begin, Part 2: The Worst Mistakes for Beginners

Jason’s Archives: Magic: the Flattening

Posted on by Jason Alt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Greetings Spatulas!

Prerelease weekend isn't what it used to be. Normally, on Friday night of the prerelease the Godslayer and I would head over to his Dad's house on the east side of the state to crash there overnight. This would reduce our drive in the morning to about 45 minutes, first to Garden City then in later years to Taylor, Michigan. Roughly 400 players congregated to play in the prerelease main event -- a grueling eight round gauntlet that provided a box to everyone in the Top 8 and two boxes to first.

I always did OK at these events, but I really hit my stride during Lorwyn-Morningtide and Shadowmoor-Eventide, getting 7th, 2nd, 3rd and 5th at those events, respectively. Not bad for a guy who last week was reasonably certain Boros Reckoner cost four mana. If you scrubbed out of the main event, it was OK because there were smaller 32-mans and side drafts to keep everyone occupied while their friends were still battling for supremacy in the main event.

Besides, there was no reason to go home because Pandemonium games in Garden City usually had 2-Headed Giant Sealed on Sunday. During Time Spiral and Lorwyn blocks the Godslayer and I were on a bit of a 2HG tear as well.

A whole weekend of playing, boxes for the Top 8, tons of side events and trade binders are far as the eye could see. The good times seemed like they might last forever, but it was not to be. Wizards would soon announce that prerelease events were to take place in smaller, local gaming stores as opposed to as one monolithic event that only favored a major TO. Gone were the days of boxes for all of the Top 8.

Here's Where It Gets Surprising

I actually don't mind the switch toward favoring the LGS.

Until this set came out, I was still driving 90 minutes to Lansing because they have five stores, and therefore it was possible to play in up to seven events, if sleep and finishing every event weren't factors (they weren't, always). Even so, I still liked the LGS concept.

With attendance usually capped, you weren't playing eight or nine rounds but rather a more realistic five or six, maximum. Your LGS got to run a few tournaments, make some money in the actual local community and introduce newer players to the people they'd interact with if they came to more events (hint hint). And Wizards got to run cool promotions that only work in a smaller setting, like the Helvault and the Maze Run.

I currently play at a store five minutes from my house which offers generous prizes, but the payout is also incredibly "flat". No box for first place at the prerelease because payout went down past the halfway point for attendance. Even though I got second at the midnight event, you might be surprised to find I share another controversial opinion.

It's better for the store to flatten the prize payout.

I used to agree with Jay -- you want more prizes? Play better next time! That was a great scheme when there was one big event and the people who managed to top-eight after eight or nine grueling rounds (on top of getting up early for a twelve hour day where prizes weren't exactly GP-caliber) deserved a box at the least.

However, things are different now. Perhaps it's my identifying primarily as a financier and only secondarily as a player, but even when I'm winning or getting Top 4 at events at my LGS, I think a flatter prize payout is good. Whether you give me a box for second or 12 packs, I'll be back next event. It's my LGS, it's close, they're finally sanctioned to run bigger events (remember, Odyssey games just opened fewer than five months ago) and if the community thrives, I thrive.

If you think of new players as new binders and new customers for my eBay store, you can probably see the value in a flat prize payout right away. Some kid who went 2-3 and is proud as hell at his achievement getting a pack or three for his mediocre finish might come back next time. But if we take both strategies to their extreme conclusion, let's see which is worse and that will help us decide which way to lean.

Extrapolation Time

Two scenarios -- the store is in an area easily accessed by college students, easy for parents to drop off their younger kids, and can hold up to 50 players. The store makes one of the following announcements on its website regarding the prize structure of the prerelease.

  1. Prizes will be paid 100% to the player in first place -- if attendance hits 50, 100 packs to the winner, determined by tiebreakers.
  2. Two packs will go to each entrant, regardless of record as long as the entrant doesn't drop. Top 4 all get t-shirts and free entry to next prerelease.

Those are the two competing philosophies taken to their extremes -- completely top-heavy and completely flat. Which do you think would be more likely to generate 50 entrants? Granted, option one might bring out the more competitive players from a few towns over, but even the spikiest among us can probably agree that the second option will bring more players to your LGS.

Look, if people are sufficiently spikey, they'll play an event as long as there is upside. A totally flat prize payout may turn some away, but if you strike a decent balance, you can favor the flat side of the equation and it will serve your community well.

Besides, there is another factor to consider. Prize payout is a function of attendance. The minimum payout required per the DCI is two packs per entrant (my LGS went well above this, as always). If you pay 100% for the Top 4 players and there are 25 in attendance, those players may get the exact same prize payout as a flatter payout with upwards of 50 players.

Why not do what favors the LGS? Remember guys, it's a prerelease, not a GP. The point is to introduce the set to everyone. More players in the store means more people trading and selling what they opened, it means more packs in the prize pool and it means more potential regular customers, because a store cannot survive without those.

Decklist Time!

There aren't any; this weekend was the prerelease, dummy! I think I'll use this space to talk about a few cards about which my opinion has changed based on playing Limited, and which may warrant testing, picking up or discarding.

My initial opinion was that this guy was pretty terrible in Standard. After a few situations where both players were in top-deck mode and I had an active Scrivener, I like him in Limited (although I almost always drew Merciless Eviction right after, which was unfortunate). He makes you play like a terrible player in Standard, however. You'll either dump your hand and overextend trying to get advantage or you'll have a guy who can't attack or block because everything kills him and why play a very conditional Dark Confidant to use as a chump blocker? Still, the games where both players were topdecking he was a help. I don't know whether this matters in Standard, but he exceeded my expectations so it's possible his power level is higher than we initially thought.


 

If you're not listening to Brainstorm Brewery and following Corbin, Ryan, Marcel and me on twitter, you don't know our very public opinion about this card. You're a reader of my articles and I thank you for that, but I really think you're doing it wrong if you don't try to catch BSB every week. Four heads are better than one, and we all talked it out and came to the conclusion that this card could be a powerhouse in Standard.

It's a Phyrexian Arena that occasionally serves as a Debtor's Knell. Getting the same removal spell back two turns in a row may seem like a best-case scenario, but it was something I hadn't considered when I first saw the card. I was fixated on how it either drew you a card or reanimated a dude. I hadn't considered how you could control what was in your yard with Deathrite Shaman and keep using the same spells over and over. Seeing this in action made me like it even more, and if you didn't go deep at $2.50 when I said to, you may end up regretting it in the next few weeks.


 

You don't ever want this attacking you.


 

You don't ever want this attacking you.


 

I used to think five mana was too much to pay for Zealous Persecution. Seeing how good it is in this limited format makes me wonder whether Aristocrats decks, at the very least, want it. They're running Electrickery for the love of Garfield. You may actually want to test this -- five mana may not be too much to pay after all, and 2B for Loss may not be a turn too late like I always thought. At the very least, my opinion of this card for Limited makes me think it may be first-pickable, and anything that surprises you in Limited warrants testing in Constructed. A principle illustrated nicely by Izzet Staticaster.


 

Why did he have to cost four? How many good cards are we not considering because everything costs four mana and there's no room? This guy actually just exceeded the crap out of expectations and ruined lives at the prerelease. If no one is going to play Mutilate like I'd like them to, he may get there. His lack of evasion and terrible mana cost-to-power/toughness ratio will make him fly under the radar, but be ready to pick him up in case someone does something.

Make no mistake, I don't think he's good in any current constructed deck, but I am listing cards that overperformed this weekend and he qualifies. I expected little and saw him give people fits. I had three maindeck Ubul Sar Gatekeepers so I didn't sweat him, but other people got their domes caved in.


 

I don't hate building around [card Trostani, Selesnya's Voice]Trostani[/card] right now given how much I like Advent of the Wurm and how much life I saw her gain us in Seance, especially when we boarded in [card Rhox Faithmender]Faithmender[/card]. The speed of the format puts a lot of pressure on early guys like Loxodon Smiter and you may have to throw some elves under the bus, so the format may be too fast right now for a 7-drop even if it practically wins the game with Trostani herself out. Getting a Summoner with Seance, though, and therefore being able to populate the Summoner herself is absurd and could be worth testing. This card seemed like a great limited card to me and I was surprised when it exceeded lofty expectations and bordered on absurd. Cluestones make this a turn five or six play and you have to be really far behind for it not to be enough. Combine with Deputy of Acquitals for maximum value.


 

No one, not even the people like me who defended his combo potential, has talked much about scavenging regular dudes with decent mana cost-to-power/toughness ratios. It comes down early enough to matter, it's a nice followup to something like Grisly Salvage (Drown in Filth is another card I'm testing) and it got out of hand fast in Limited. He's not terrible with Deadbridge Chant -- taking smaller dudes out of your yard to guarantee any creatures you reanimate are big ones.

He also makes your dudes outclass opponents' later drops and keep the pressure on early. Is Naya dumping too many threats for you to get there with one bigger dude when what you need are smaller ones? Yes, but when creatures trade in combat and they're topdecking, you'll build your own Frankenstein's monster of a fatty and have inevitability. This guy warrants testing in a scenario I'd not really considered -- a non-combo deck that just makes the most of scavenging. I barely beat the guy who cast this against me and my deck had all of the removal.

Since I had very low expectations for most of this set, nothing really underperformed in my opinion. Standard is about to get a shot in the arm, and I'm all in favor of a change.

Meet me back here next week where we can talk about how the release weekend went.

Insider: How We Evaluate Trades

Posted on by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

While we often consider a card's value to be the top priority when trading, there are many other factors that should be considered. These factors include immediate need/want, speculative potential, format playability, collectability (perhaps you collect a certain card or artist), difficulty of acquiring or replacing a different copy, buy-list value and ease of unloading.

Many of these factors are almost subconsciously answered before the trade even starts. For some examples let's say the following offers are made (assume NM condition for all cards involved).

Pile 1 ($25.32 TCG Mid)

Pile 2 ($24.98 TCG Mid)

From a pure numbers standpoint pile 1 is more valuable. Both cards see play in Modern and Legacy and could easily be considered staples.

Now, decide which pile you'd prefer to have.

I can see the trade from both sides. If I have pile 1 I'm trading three lower-value cards for a higher-value card which has seen only one printing. The amount of money I'm losing is minimal compared to the fact that I'm consolidating into a more valuable asset.

If I have pile 2, on the other hand, I'm splitting up an expensive asset into three cheaper assets that are worth slightly more money. Any gains by the Blood Moon I'll see three-fold compared to any gains in the Catacombs. I'm expecting the Modern metagame to use even more non-basics than currently and this card just showed up as a 4-of in a Legacy deck that did well at GP Strasbourg.

How about another one:

Pile 1 ($125.22 TCG Mid)

Pile 2 ($124.9 TCG Mid)

Again from a pure numbers standpoint pile 1 is more valuable, but not by much. But this time we have a high-dollar legacy staple crucial to a top tier deck compared to a Legacy/Modern-legal fetchland. Both have only one printing (though the Catacombs was included in an event deck). Now, which pile would you prefer to have? Again, I can see the trade from both sides.

Pile 1 is unloading some high dollar Legacy cards seen in only 1-2 decks. There's a possibility of the card getting banned which would tank it's value. I can trade into an asset that has a strong demand due to its playability across multiple formats.

Pile 2 is consolidating into more valuable assets that are the backbone of a tier 1 Legacy deck.

Breaking Down the Factors

Now that we have the exercise out of the way let's look into some of the factors we used to judge those trades.

Immediate Need

When you need a card (for a tournament or a deck you've always wanted to build) you'll often value it higher than normally. Even knowing the current value, you'll still be willing to part with a little bit more than you would for a card of equal value that you don't "need." This is knowledge you would prefer your trading partner not know as this gives them the edge. If you needed one of those piles in order to play in a tournament that started in 10 minutes you'd process the trade differently and most likely be willing to give up the most in trade.

Less-Immediate Need/Want

This category is a bit more difficult to conceptualize, but it's easier when you tie it with "collectability". Let's say you collect Serra Angels and you run into someone with a 7th Edition foil in Japanese. This isn't a card you'll see often and while it's by no means one of a kind, you could easily go for years without seeing another in a trade binder. You want this card, you feel as though you need it, but it's not for a deck.

You can keep your desire for the card a bit more under wraps because you don't have an immediate time factor. You might try to show some interest and if the owner seems unwilling to budge wander off and catch up with them later in the hopes that they are more willing to negotiate as the day has worn on and few people have shown any interest in it. You still don't want to leave the tournament site without owning this card, but you can hold back a bit to get a better deal.

Speculative Potential

This is a factor we are all familiar with. When you believe the future value of a card will rise from its current value you subconsciously assign that card more value in your head. Not that you'll tell your trade partner, but if you can come to a close deal you don't mind gaining less value or losing a small bit because you've already decided the card is more valuable than it's current price indicates.

This is a strong factor for many of us because the upside can be tremendous. As we have seen, Magic cards can double or triple in a matter of days and the elation of catching the cards before the spike is tremendous.

Format Playability

This concept describes how good a card is in relation to how often it can be in demand, due to the range of formats in which it is played. A perfect example is Liliana of the Veil. Currently she's played in Legacy, Modern and Standard, the trifecta for traders. Demand for her is high and is expected to remain so due to her playability across all formats. The more formats a card is playable in the higher the expected demand and the more stable the price (though in this context stable often means less likely to drop as it could still spike upwards).

Collectibility

This is a look at how desirable the card is from a collector's standpoint. The best examples are often Angels or Dragons, which tend to maintain a higher price point than another card that is exactly the same, but of a different creature type (this price isn't always all that significant, but it's still something to consider).

Ease of Replacement

When I trade off Legacy cards I often consider how difficult it would be for me to get the card back, not out of fear of "trader's remorse", but simply because some cards you rarely see in trade binders. Ironically, this doesn't always directly correlate to the card's value. Some of my favorite examples are Yawgmoth's Will and Vampiric Tutor, cards I rarely see in any trade binders but which are both are less than $30.

Buylist Value

This is a great way to trade when your plan is to sell cards to buylists. You can trade cards that are of equal value but buylist at different values. This works well when the cards you have buylist for less but are highly in demand. On a side note it's also critical to compare buylist values as stores will change their buylist based on the demand they are seeing (and demand can vary based on location).

Ease of Unloading

I factor this in when picking up higher dollar cards that are difficult to trade. Sometimes it's difficult to trade off some high dollar Legacy staples that see limited play. For example, The Tabernacle at Pendrall Vale and Moat are both $300+ dollar cards but finding a buyer/trader is difficult because they are typically only played in one or two decks.

The good news is that if you're looking for one of these you can often get them undervalued if you have high-velocity cards to trade for them. A great example: I traded for an english NM Moat (that was hand-painted) for 1x Volcanic Island-NM (Revised), 1x Badlands-HP (Unlimited), 4x Steam Vents (RTR), 2x Grove of the Burnwillows. The guy mentioned that people commented on the Moat all day but nobody wanted it. He was happy to get rid of it and I got it for about $75 off because it was altered (despite the fact that it looks gorgeous).

Card Value

Last but not least, the most obvious factor is the card's actual value. While this can often differ by what source you use, when trading most people default to this factor and while they may consider some of these other factors this is the one they latch onto. One important strategy I use is when people ask you what you put the card at, I give a range. This is critical to keep from getting pigeon-holed by sharks. If a card is $8 on TCG-Mid and $10 on SCG saying $7-10 works well because it gives you leverage when your trade partner starts pricing their cards.

Insider: Judge Foil Rumors and Dragon’s Maze Movers

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Yesterday morning I participated in a local Prerelease event for Dragon’s Maze. Because this was the only Prerelease I could attend from this entire block, I was excited to finally get my chance to play with Guild Packs and the whole nine yards. After reading about how powerful Orzhov was, I chose Orzhov/Azorius and got to work.

Turns out picking Orzhov/Azorius and then opening two Turn // Burn and three Punish the Enemy forces you to make some awkward decisions. I ended up Blue/White/Red splashing Black and, while color fixing was usually not too bad, the deck just did not synergize well. Disappointingly, I proceeded to 0-2 drop – about average for me at Prereleases.

I should stick with Modern.

Onto the Finance

When I got home, my day started picking up. In the mail came a couple big cards I ordered. And then I found some consolation in seeing this picture (source):

Talk about spoilers! While Vengevine is less than exciting, the other reprints deserve some attention. After all, we have another rumored P3K reprint now in Overwhelming Forces!

Should these rumors be true, we should consider past examples in order to predict possible implications of these reprints on prices. Overwhelming Forces is a stead $130 card, but this reprint can have some serious impact. Don’t believe me? Have a look at what happened the last time a rumored P3K reprint surfaced:

Imperial Recruiter was happily rising in price over time and ultimately peaked near $350 thanks to its popularity in Legacy. Reprint rumors began and the price shed over $75 in a few short months. While the original P3K version isn’t in danger of truly collapsing, the reprint should increase supply of the Advisor enough to have a permanent impact on price. By investigating the past, I would predict Overwhelming Forces to drop by a similar percentage in the next couple months – if you aren’t attached to the original version artwork, you may be best off selling now.

If you’re like me, the above analysis isn’t so useful since I don’t own any Overwhelming Forces. So let’s look at the two cards nearer and dearer to our hearts: Vindicate and Show and Tell.

Our best approach here is to investigate what has happened historically when solid Legacy staples were reprinted as Judge Foils. How about using Karakas and Noble Hierarch as arbitrary basis cards, since both were done recently and mtgstocks.com should have sufficient data to highlight impact?

Karakas - Judge Foil release June 2012

It would appear based on the chart for Karakas that the increase in Magic’s popularity has more than compensated for the Judge printing of Karakas. The card is a few bucks off its peak, but the impact has been negligible. I would have expected that the limited supply of this Legendary Land would surely have meant that any reprint would hurt prices. Perhaps not?

At least the Judge Foil version retails for $20 less than the original version. It seems in this case the original printing was hardly impacted at all, and that the new version enters the market a little below the original.

Noble Hierarch - Judge Foil release March 2012

The trend for Noble Hierarch doesn’t seem too different:

Like many price charts, the value of Noble Hierarch has been steadily on the rise since Return to Ravnica was released. As far as the original copy’s price is concerned, the Judge Foil had no impact. In this case the Judge Foil version retails for $10 more than the original printing of the Human Druid. This might be because the original frame and artwork is so classy.

Summing Up Judge Foils

In rapid fire form, here are my predictions for the spoiled Judge Foil cards:

  • Vengevine: Who cares? The card sees little play and the $15 retail price is a ceiling for the card until it breaks into Modern or returns to Legacy.
  • Overwhelming Forces: I see a solid 25% price drop potential here, bringing the original printing to below $100 again. Now that Wizards has reprinted multiple P3K cards, it’s safe to say no rare (except Imperial Seal?) is sacred from that set. Keep this in mind while investing.
  • Vindicate and Show and Tell: I see little impact here. Unfortunately both of these have new (uglier) artworks, so I don’t see them carrying much premium versus original printings either. While my gut initially told me to unload my Vindicates immediately, this analysis suggests there may not be such need.

Back To My Prerelease Day

By the time last night rolled around I was mostly over my painful defeat at the local Prerelease. I tried to return to an area of strength: finding deals on MOTL and eBay. That’s when I noticed that people have already begun listing their Dragon’s Maze cards. Overall, this is a smart move.

Personally, the only valuable card I opened at the Prerelease was a Godless Shrine, and I have no intent on selling it yet. The card had been on a steady decline since release, but I’m beginning to think all Shock Lands have finally bottomed. They all have a similar chart shape, dropping from release to the present but slowly flattening out in the past couple weeks.

This would be a good time to remind everyone how previous rare lands of Standard have also followed this trend. Scars of Mirrodin Dual Lands took off once they became scarce in trade binders, and Innistrad Duals tripled in price once Scars block rotated out of Standard. Shock Lands should be no exception, and with their Modern/EDH playability, these cards should be solid investments in time. I'm looking to acquire readily in trades, and I am even trying to buy here and there if the price is right.

As for Dragon’s Maze cards, are there any worth keeping at the moment? Well, despite hearing how infrequently people opened Ral Zarek, I still think you should sell him the moment you touch him. Looking at his price chart, he’s already been on a decline and I see that continuing in the short term.

In order to maintain that price tag, he’s going to need to see solid play in Standard. Even Liliana of the Veil had a tough time remaining above $30 when she was initially printed, and she even saw multi-format play!

In fact, almost every Dragon’s Maze card will have a price chart like the one above. One exception I’d like to point out here (and it’s the only card I’m considering) is Sire of Insanity:

This card has been on a rampage after sitting at two bucks for days. It’s like all of a sudden people realized how good this card is, especially against control decks running Sphinxs Revelation and sitting on various counterspells. I don’t know if going deep at the new $5 price tag is right, but buying copies at the older price tag sure seems solid. Wish I had pre-ordered these when I had the chance, but now there is increased risk. Should this card become a dud, he will drop to $2 as quickly as he rose to $5. If I opened any at the Prerelease, I wouldn’t be selling them just yet.

In Summary

Well, first of all I learned how rusty I am at playing Magic. It seems that focusing my MTG time on the finance side (and, you know, having a baby) really inhibits my abilities in playing the game. I still enjoy it though and I’ll still play whenever I get a chance.

Second of all, I saw the Judge Promo picture and I’m not too concerned about the implication. Unless you have copies of Overwhelming Forces lying around, I wouldn’t worry about these reprints. Personally, I don’t think Show and Tell will budge in price unless it’s banned in Legacy. The Judge Promo should have no impact on Vindicate as well.

Finally, as you return home from your Prerelease weekend, please keep in mind the likelihood of Dragon’s Maze's prices dropping. So many cards are inflated in price at this time, and it is often the wrong move to sit on them. The only exceptions for me are the Shock Lands and Sire of Insanity. The rest I’m more than happy to trade away or sell if it’s worthwhile. You’ll have plenty of time to acquire these more cheaply in a few weeks.

…

Sigbits

  • I remember when Blood Moon was worth just a couple bucks, and then one day Star City Games increased their buy price to $4 on white-bordered versions. I should have heeded this observation of mine, because these cards are now retailing for $10 and are sold out in many cases. I should have trusted SCG’s move on those.
  • Speaking of SCG moves, the price of Angel of Serenity has pulled back once again. I sold a few copies but kept two in case prices continued to rise. Now I’ll have to wait for Standard rotation to have another good selling chance.
  • I have been tracking foil Abrupt Decay for a while now and I’ve observed a steady rise. The first couple copies I purchased were just under $20 and they now retail for $40 and eBay for almost $30. There’s really little reason for these to drop, and their play in Legacy and Modern should keep them afloat ongoing. I’m a snap-buyer at $25 and I’ll trade for these wherever possible (which is quite rare).

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Your Free Dragon’s Maze Price Sheet for the Prereleases This Weekend (and the Trader Tools beta)

Posted on by Douglas Linn

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Hello and welcome! We've got another round of those handy cheat-sheets to print out for the prerelease this weekend. I've had people request both alphabetized ones and price-ranked ones, so I went ahead and made two versions. Pick the one you like more or print both of them out. It looks like there aren't many expensive cards in this set, but bear in mind that it's a smaller one - only 166 cards.

The set's price has to be at least a certain minimum (and we internally put that at about $140). MTGO Redeemers make the markets for paper cards in some ways. The previous two sets had the shocklands to keep prices down across the board (and while DGM has them in the land slot, we can't quite count on that for pricing the set). I see Voice of Resurgence staying at $20 or jumping up to $40 if it's played. The set needs a few banner cards to keep prices up for redeemers. In other words, if you don't have a lot of $10 cards around, you'll have some $40 cards instead.

Have a great time at your prerelease this weekend, and happy trading! There are a lot of newer and inexperienced players at prereleases, so be a Good Guy and help them get good trades. What's good for your store is good for you, too.

DGM Cheat Sheet: Price-Ordered / Alphabetized

NEW:  Trader Tools 2 [beta]

By now you've probably used our Trader Tools, located at MTG.GG.  It's a great piece of software that's saved many hours and earned our members tends of thousands of extra value.  We're always trying to add more value to the Insider package, making sure our subscribers are always getting the most for their money.

Though it's not quite ready for the prime-time yet, we just had to  release it in time for the pre-release.   There are probably bugs, and there are still a load of features and tweaks that we will continue to make, but we thought it would be better to give our members access as soon as we felt the site could support it.  Just like the original TT, you can still use this software without being an Insider member, but you'll miss out on the real powerhouse features.

TT2 will be the most advanced Magic card price tool you've ever used.  And it's only getting better.    Check it out now.

Insider members get access to:

  • Full set buylists, so you can see what every card in a Magic set buylists for
  • Your own custom lists so you can track inventory, decks, want-lists and more.
  • A one-page portal to our Insider chatroom, articles,  and forums and messaging.
  • A blazingly fast search that will show you prices before you've finished even typing. It's seriously cool.

If you're not an Insider, you can still look up any card in Magic and see its median selling price in stores, what the highest buy price is, and what the difference between the two numbers is ("the spread").

It's still in Beta testing. We've added a "bug report" feature, so blow that thing up with your comments. We couldn't hold off on getting this out any later because we wanted everyone to have it for DGM Prerelease weekend. It's not a finished product but it's still got insane functionality to it. I love being able to save a list of all my bulk rares and watch the list change in value over time. Pretty cool stuff!

The mtg.gg shortlink still goes to the stable Trader Tools you're used to. We'll move it to the new version when we've squashed some more bugs.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in Dragon's Maze, FreeTagged , , 13 Comments on Your Free Dragon’s Maze Price Sheet for the Prereleases This Weekend (and the Trader Tools beta)

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Join the QS Discord
Open Discord

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Apply Today!

Insider: Initial Look at Dragon’s Maze

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Dragon's Maze (DGM) is fully spoiled at this point, but there is no event data to analyze and no MTGO pricing data to look at either. All we can do is analyze what's available and do some thinking of our own. At this point, it's hard to see which rares in particular will be the breakout cards from this set. Most of the initial observations I've read indicate no obvious powerhouses and that the power level of many cards will only be revealed in context. Below is a rundown of the cards I am interested in at the moment and ones I consider worth keeping tabs on.

Keep in mind that for any DGM card the third set effect will be present. Prices on cards from the third set of a block have tended to reach the highest prices in the following year. Recent examples from MTGO include Bonfire of the Damned and Sword of War and Peace, both of which surpassed 40 tix. In terms of in-print rares, the all time high for a non-foil was reached by Restoration Angel, also from a third set.

Mythics

Council of the Absolute

With the potential to be a 4-of from a 3rd set, we might be looking at a future high priced staple. If this card starts out at a reasonable price, say 4-7 tix, I won't hesitate to start building a position. Early tournament results which favor this card would be a strong signal to stake out a larger position.

Ral Zarek

No surprise that the planeswalker of the set is on the list, however expectations are probably too high at the moment. The untapping half of the +1 ability seems to have few powerful options within the block, so it's more likely this will see stronger interactions in Standard with something like Gilded Lotus. Keep your eyes out on this one for a price bottom; I'll be more interested if it falls into the 10-14 tix range.

Voice of Resurgence

This card was identified early as potentially powerful and carries a paper price tag to match. Its strengths include a resiliency to mass removal and an effective deterrent to anyone trying to play instants on your turn. I expect that this card will be priced too high at the outset and that a period of experimentation will be followed by disappointing results, leading to price declines. Although not a huge body for Standard, I strongly suspect this card will have applications in Legacy and Modern. If that turns out to be the case, it could be a strong buy in advance of Modern season next year.

Rares

Advent of the Wurm

The rate on this card is good, but the prevalence of Thragtusk in Standard might keep it from being fully appreciated. If Thragtusk does not get reprinted in M14, this would probably be good a bet to gain in value after Fall rotation. Once it finds its price level, this is a buy.

Beck//Call

Lots of writers identified this early on as having potential in Modern. Both Intruder Alarm and Cloudstone Curio have seen price increases in the last couple of weeks. The easy money has been made on these two cards, but as rares from older sets both are in short supply on MTGO. Further price increases are possible so pay attention to what the Modern brewers are doing. Either card could go to 5+ tix if Beck meets the early expectations of powering up a new combo deck in Modern.

Catch//Release

With any of the new split cards, the ability to cast them both using fuse should be seen as a bonus. For this particular card, Catch is a fairly unique effect that has not been seen at 3cc before, and Release has no precedent although I am reminded a little of Jokulhaups. I anticipate this card going to bulk or near-bulk, but Release has build-around potential so I will be stock piling these when prices settle down.

Lavinia of the Tenth

This card should make an impact on Block Constructed, so it might hold a higher price online than other DGM rares. If it does, but doesn't see equivalent play in Standard, put this down as another card to pick up this Summer prior to rotation.

Obzedat's Aid

Brewers such as Travis Woo are already hard at work on this card, seeking to maximize its potential to put an Omniscience into play. This will probably start out as an expensive rare, but Omniscience still has some room to move up. Players and brewers on MTGO tend to be short-sighted and won't look to buy the cards they need to experiment with Obzedat's Aid until prereleases have started. I'd expect further price increases on Omniscience and possibly on Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker.

Ruric Thar, The Unbowed

Sometimes you really want a monster that smashes things. This guy tangles with most large creatures in Standard and comes out on top, and he's also costly to remove with spells. I think he will be played, but might be inexpensive early on since people will dismiss him as a big dumb monster.

Looking Forward

Cards like Sphinx's Revelation and Obzedat, Ghost Council were both available at relatively low prices prior to their respective release events ending. There's always a few gems in the rough, but it's hard to tell at this point which ones they could be. After release events have started I will start monitoring the prices of mythic rares and attempt to identify any value that might be present, as well as any cards that are overpriced and due for a fall.

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and watching in the market.

Selling:

  • Jace, The Mind Sculptor has seen a recent price bump to over 60 tix so I took the opportunity to sell a play set. It looks like this card is taking a breather and MTGOtraders has 13 copies in stock currently, a relatively high amount for them. With DGM the focus in the short term, expect further price weakness. I'll consider rebuying at 55 tix as the long-term outlook on this card is still positive.
  • I've almost completely sold down my stock of Jace, Architect of Thought and Rakdos's Return. I've got a hunch these will both be pushing down to sub-10 tix during the coming weeks and if that's the case I'll look into rebuying then.

Buying:

  • A few Gatecrash cards have seen some price strength this week, probably due to the next MOCS event being Block Constructed and the DGM spoilers dampening enthusiasm for GTC draft. Obzedat, Ghost Council, Domri Rade and Boros Reckoner are cards I continue to buy when I can find a good price, though Domri Rade has bumped up in price in the last few days.
  • Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker and Omniscience are two cards which could see play with Obzedat's Aid. I have bought both this week. I'd expect Omniscience to get to 8-9 tix after the DGM prereleases start due to players experimenting, and if the deck is viable it will hit 10+ tix. Nicol Bolas is a bit more speculative, but on the plus side it is closer to a price bottom.

Watching:

  • I'll be paying attention to paper tournament results once DGM hits to get a sense for how the Standard metagame might shift.
  • GTC boosters have fallen to 3 tix or below and it's reasonable to expect further price weakness. The upcoming week of Cube drafting and then the DGM prereleases will shift attention away from GTC booster drafts. Demand for tix will increase as both Cube and prerelease prizes cannot be used directly to reenter events. At the same time, GTC boosters will continue to be awarded from Standard and Block Constructed. All told, I have stopped buying GTC boosters for the moment and will start buying again during DGM prereleases.
  • Putrefy is a card I would expect to see prices higher than 1 tix during prereleases and can currently be bought for 0.24 tix from Cardbot. In his most recent article, Reid Duke considered this to be a necessary card for Jund in Standard. Be sure to sock away a few copies of the original version in order to sell during the initial period of high demand and short supply.

Insider: Dragon’s Maze Prerelease Primer

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

It’s that time of the year again. The loved (or hated) set financial review!

For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers or casual hits and so forth.

If you want to hear some financial thoughts besides mine on the new set, make sure to check out the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery when it comes out on Friday at GatheringMagic.com.

You can also look for my retrospective on Gatecrash picks in a few weeks, but in the meantime we have a lot of stuff to get through in Dragon’s Maze, so let’s get on it!

Blood Baron of Vizkopa

At a $12 preorder on Star City Games, there’s not much to like here. I think the card is powerful, of course, and it will likely compete with [card Obzedat, Ghost Council]Obzedat[/card] for that 5-drop spot once Thragtusk rotates. I have no idea right now which of those will win out, so there may be an opportunity down the line, but it’s certainly coming down from $12.

If this does reach near-bulk status I like picking it up because it’s a legendary vampire at the mythic rarity. That’s good for its long-term prices.

Deadbridge Chant

This is, by far, the card I most like at its $4 preorder price, for a few reasons.

Firstly, Standard. This card provides so much value I can see it immediately becoming a two-of in Jund decks. That may not do much to its price, but it doesn’t exactly have far to drop either. Secondly, Block and/or Standard decks that start with four Abrupt Decay, four Putrefy and some number of Vraska the Unseen/Chant are probably a thing.

And on top of that, it’s a very solid Commander card for any reanimator deck or simply a one that likes value. With all of that in mind, I highly suggest picking this up at your prerelease this weekend.

Legion's Initiative

No way this stays $12. Even if its played I don’t think it will be played a ton, so something like $3-4 seems more right in a few months.

Ral Zarek

I’m sure this surprises no one, but this card is insanely overpriced at $35. It’s hard to imagine common scenarios where the first ability is something you actively look for, and while the second ability is really good and people obviously want to take extra turns, I’m just not sure that translates into a lot of Standard play.

The guy obviously does have a following though, so I expect Ral to end up at something like $8-12 four to six months down the line. And I expect Jace, Architect of Thought to be the 4-drop Planeswalker of choice and rise in price accordingly from the $10 it’s at right now.

Savageborn Hydra

When I first saw this card, I got excited about it's casual potential down the line, a lá Primordial Hydra. Then I saw it’s $8, which I think is absurd because the card is unlikely to see any real competitive play, at least before next year.

Let this drop down to near-bulk and scoop them up then.

Voice of Resurgence

This is one of the cards people are really divided over. Some think it’s the best thing ever while others are pretty “meh” about it and its $20 preorder price.

I’m somewhere in between. I think the card is solid but don’t see it going nuts any time soon, and leaving behind a 1/1 isn’t exactly the best Wrath defense we’ve ever seen.

In summation, then, $6-9 card.

Aetherling

I’m addressing this one (preselling at $6) because I’ve heard a few people say it’s going to be the next big control finisher. Personally, I don’t see that at all. In order to protect it you have to play it at seven mana, and then attack with it at least five turns in a row to win.

That’s too much for my tastes when the alternatives have a larger impact on the board. As such, I don’t really see much hope for this card, and I think it’s $2-4 down the line.

Beck

Rumor has it there’s another half to this card, but it’s pretty much irrelevant. I also think $4 on the preorder for this Modern combo-enabler is probably not terribly incorrect. It’ll likely settle to $2-3 and then go back to $4 if it’s played next Modern season.

Breaking

Another split card with a meaningless second half. This isn’t Glimpse the Unthinkable, but it’s not that far off either. I’m not sure many casual players like split cards, but I have to imagine this won’t go too much lower than $2, so I really like trading for them at that price and hoarding.

Notion Thief

This is the Dragon's Maze card most akin to Boros Reckoner in my opinion.

What I mean by that is it could see a large spike the first week or two it’s out because I’m pretty sure this will be big against the Sphinx's Revelation decks. Obviously we all know this, but people jamming this in the first week could easily spike it to $10+ from its current $6. I wouldn’t expect it to stay there though; chances are it comes back down to $5 or so.

Sire of Insanity

This is already up to $3 from a buck, but I don’t even hate trading for it at that $2-3 price point this weekend. A solid showing next weekend spikes this to $5+, and you’ll have no problem outing them at that time for a nice double-up.

I don’t see it ever being a 4-of, though, so it will likely settle to $3-5 even if it does see play, and more like $1-2 if it doesn’t.

Zhur-Taa Ancient

It’s impossible not to like this thing because it’s 50 cents, or actual bulk, on SCG right now. It’s a freaking Mana Flare!

I get that it’ll never see Standard play, but EDH players are likely to want these, and people don’t mind global effects like this as much in that format because of politics. That means this will easily trade at more than 50 cents, and since it can’t really get any cheaper it's a good pickup this weekend.

Wrapping Up

That’s pretty much it. This set has a lot of “meh” cards in it, which honestly is fine with me. Not every set needs to push the power level so much that it obsoletes something else. It does make for a smaller-than-usual set review though. Anyway, the lower prices across the board mean that the good targets will stay good as less overall product may be opened, and it helps the prices on shocklands hold.

And by the way, I’ll still be trading for every Return to Ravnica shockland I can this weekend, and will do the same when the Gatecrash ones get to that price point as well.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Dragon’s Maze: First Look

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Dragon’s Maze of midrange. That is the honorary title I bestow upon the new set. Have you noticed that all of the cards worth caring about cannot be discarded by Inquisition of Kozilek? That is a bit of an exaggeration, but not far from the truth. The average converted mana cost aside, my initial impression of the set is lukewarm. Like Gatecrash though, there are many hidden gems in this set that will make an impact on Standard. Today, I would like to talk about some cards at I have been thinking about from the spoiler. Hopefully, I can provide you with a different perspective than other writers.

Advent of the Wurm

My first thought about Advent of the Wurm is that it is crazy powerful. When I started playing, you had to accept a number of drawback to get more power than mana you put into your four-drop. Now 5/5s for four mana come with multiple abilities.

The first ability is trample. In a world filled with mana producing elves and Lingering Souls tokens, trample is more of a boon than normal. Most creatures in Standard right now are not sized to compete with this card. Of course we have Thragtusk still running rampant, but hopefully that ship will sail this summer and we won’t have to deal with it after M14.

Making a token is a bonus as well because it enables populate.

What else is important about this card? Oh right, you can play it whenever you feel like it because of flash. This innocent word is the most important aspect of the card. Restoration Angel is not just good because of her blink ability, she is so potent because she ambushes attackers. Right now in Standard, if your opponent passes the turn with four mana available and one of them is white, you should be giving serious thought to whether or not you should attack with your 3/3. Often you should hold back.

You may think that after all of that, I would advocate building a deck to abuse Advent of the Wurm's. That is unfortunately not the case. I think this card will be mostly neglected because of the existence of Azorius Charm. As the blue-white charm will be legal during the same time, Advent of the Wurm will probably never live up to its potential. Why bother spending your fourth turn to make a 5/5 when your opponent can spend fewer resources to remove it? Maybe I am wrong and we will be populating 5/5’s in Standard in the Fall, but I don’t think so. We can hope though.

Voice of Resurgence

This bear-sized plant deer thing has been the topic of discussion as of late. Players are rarely neutral with their opinion about this deertaur (like a centaur but a deer instead, obviously). Breaking down the text box can be confusing, so let’s figure out exactly what’s happening in there.

The first thing we know is that at some point we will get a creature token. This is another Selesnya card so that should not surprise anyone. The token you get is as big as the number of creatures you control. I’ve heard a number of players claim this card is bad because you will only get a 1/1 when it dies. This is not going to be the case the majority of the time. If you are playing a deck that wants a 2/2 for two mana, I’m sure you will have other creatures. Most likely, you even have one-mana creatures like Avacyn's Pilgrim or Dryad Militant. Even if you only have your one-mana creature and the Voice of Resurgence, you will get a 2/2 when it dies. What if you follow up your one-mana and two-mana plays with Lingering Souls? This is starting to sound more reasonable now.

Against an aggressive deck, it functions similar to a creature with undying. I think comparing it to Strangleroot Geist would be appropriate based on what we have discussed so far. But that’s not all the Voice does.

While he gives you another creature to fight against aggressive decks, he is even better against controlling decks. His ability to give you a token also triggers whenever your opponent interacts with you on your turn. That means if they try to counter your spell, play Restoration Angel, or cast a card drawing spell, you get your token. Forcing Esper Control or UWR Flash to only play spells on their own turn is a powerful way to change how they play their decks. Can either of those decks actually beat you if they are forced to cast their spells on their turn?

To sum up Voice of Resurgence, yes it is only a 2/2 but it comes equipped with some very good hate bear abilities. Not only is it good against aggro decks, but it is even better against control. I expect this creature to make an impact on Standard and maybe even the older formats as well.

Gaze of Granite

Many comparisons have been made between this card and Pernicious Deed. The similarities do exist, but Deed was so good because you could sacrifice it the turn you played it or wait until later so you had more mana available.

I think Gaze will prove too expensive for Standard, but it is a very powerful effect. Against aggro, you'll most likely have to wait until you have five mana before it's effective. It’s possible that its flexibility makes it better than Merciless Eviction, but those two cards seem very similar to me. Against control, where you would think it is better because you have more mana available, I don’t think it supersedes Rakdos's Return or the new Sire of Insanity.

I don’t think Gaze of Granite will even have as much impact as Putrefy. I’m glad it exists but it seems too mana intensive for Standard. If someone casts this against me I won't be too surprised, but they might be dead before they can cast it for enough.

Gruul War Chant

This might seem like a strange card to talk about today, but it has been on my mind a lot since I saw it on the spoiler. This Madcap Skills variant is going to be great in Limited. Considering how slow Dragon’s Maze seems and the slowness RTR gave us, DGR Limited looks to be a midrange format. If those things are true about Limited, I was thinking they might apply to Standard as well.

The worst case scenario for this enchantment is that is becomes just a bonus to your creature’s power. Four mana is double what we normally pay for this effect but the second part makes it worth the investment. Having to block two creatures on each attacker against a deck like Naya Blitz can be game ending. Stabilizing off of Lingering Souls or Thragtusk is commonplace right now. With Gruul War Chant, neither of those would be enough. This four-mana enchantment is not the best card ever, but it may turn out to impact Standard which is more than anyone is giving it credit for right now.

Obzedat's Aid

Return target permanent card from your graveyard to the battlefield. Target permanent. This wording has never existed on a card before. When situations like this come up, it’s best to pay attention.

This unique effect is powerful too. Junk Reanimator is already a deck, and the best one in the format at that. What happens when it gets more consistency? If that were all the aid we got from this card, I would be surprised it was a rare. But Obzedat's Aid can do crazy things like reanimate Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker or Omniscience. Think about having one of those permanents in play on turn three or four instead of a mere Angel of Serenity. It may turn out that this new card is just a more expensive Zombify, but it has a lot of potential.

That’s all for me today. Over the next couple weeks I will be sharing some sweet Standard decks, stories from PTQs, and my top ten for the set. My top ten article always causes some controversy, so don’t miss it!

Until next week,

Unleash the Maze!

Navigating the Labyrinth

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

With Dragon's Maze fully spoiled, I have some very mixed feelings. In terms of constructed there are several cards in the set that make me outright furious. While I am happy that they seem to be trying to push the power level back, there are several cards that I find more or less insulting.

Missed the Boat

I want to start by talking about Skylasher. What is even going on here? I understand that Delver of Secrets and Geist of Saint Traft still exist in Standard, but their time in the sun has passed. Sure, UG Delver and Bantchantments are decks, but how good are they really? Do either make up a significant portion of the metagame for you to dedicate sideboard slots to a Grizzly Bears? What's more, Geist is paired almost exclusively with cards that make it attack favorably into Skylasher. Gift of Orzhova and Ethereal Armor turn your sick blocker into a 2.5" x 3.5" embodiment of embarrassment.

But what about Modern and Legacy?

GET IT?! It's funny because a Grizzly Bear that only attacks and blocks is even more laughable in those formats than it is in Standard. I mean, what deck is going to commit to that? This is a worse version of Great Sable Stag that showed up far too late.

This is No Hammer

Now let's talk about a card that actively upset me, because it's soooooo close to being awesome. What on God's green earth is going on with Pyrewild Shaman? It's like a weird-homage to Hammer of Bogardan that seems intent on delivering the message that Hammer of Bogardan would be unplayable today, therefor similar cards should likewise be unplayable. In what universe is a Red deck going to win games where it has mana to mess around rebuying Giant Growths? All of the successful red-based decks of late have been tap-out style decks, and slamming a Hellrider or Thundermaw Hellkite is basically always going to be a dramatically better play. And as far as the card also being a three drop? I've heard it told that Boros Reckoner is still legal. I'm not even convinced that this guy is comparable to Pyreheart Wolf.

Then we have Aetherling... I imagine that the design file on this card reads something like "... Upped the manacost and made exiling part of the resolution of the first ability rather than activation. Otherwise we might have made a card that was flashy AND playable." Again, we get it. Morphling wouldn't be good anymore, we don't need to see similar cards not be good to understand this.

Alright, I'm done whining now. You probably already know what bad cards look like, so let's talk about exciting things! I like being excited. And this limited format looks pretty promising. "What's to like about it?" one might ask. Well, you see..

I Get to Force Five Color

If you've ever Cubed with me you've probably heard me say the phrase, "looks like we're five color" at least three times. There's just no better way to generate absurd limited scenarios than to draft a deck with a manabase that makes every spell in the format a possibility. Full block Return to Ravnica limited offers us unique incentives to accomplish this feat. The guarantee of a dual land in every pack in pack one in addition to scattered duals and manarocks in the other packs gives us pretty good control over what colors we play.

I'm getting the impression that this limited format won't lend itself to consistently drafting two-color decks, though I imagine when they're open they'll be quite potent. Being open to drafting them when they're made available will be important, but for the most part I believe that having a general strategy for drafting powerful 3+ color decks is going to prove invaluable. Let's take a second to take an inventory of our priorities.

The Obvious

What we need more than anything are bombs and manafixing. Bombs pretty clearly come first. If our spells aren't going to consistently be more powerful than our opponent's then there's no reason to stretch our mana further than their's. Fixing also clearly matters because if we can't cast our powerful spells then we're not playing Magic. This you knew. This is obvious. This isn't Standard though, so just slamming our best spell on every turn isn't going to get us there. There are some nuances that need working out.

Find a Primary Color/Guild

A major lesson in deck-building is to find your theme, but not to be a slave to it, and that applies to limited as well as constructed. Sure, we're trying to be splashy and powerful, but if we're going to win we need to be consistent. Years ago Adrian Sullivan wrote a solid article about an archetype (or rather, set of archetypes) for Alara Block called two-color five-color.

Since our late-game will be, hopefully, considerably stronger than our opponents we'll need to spend some time surviving. Having a good amount of two and three drops in one color or one guild will allow us to masquerade as one of the other, weaker decks while we build up to our big finish. I imagine green is where we'll want to try to be based so that we can scoop up things like Greenside Watcher, Axebane Guardian and Gatecreeper Vine in packs two and three. Things like Cluestones and Keyrunes will be good for our mana if green isn't open, but the bodies on green fixing are important for our next point of focus.

Blocking

With Gatecrash in the format it's pretty clear that aggressive decks will still be possible in full block, and for that reason our early drops are going to need to be able to destroy creatures and/or block them. If you've had the misfortune of ending up in Dimir in Gatecrash, you probably understand that Gutter Skulk was one of your most important cards because you needed to survive long enough to get to the point on the curve where your good spells were hiding.

In Alara block limited my favorite card may have very well been Spore Burst. If you can block long enough, you buy the time to make your hay-makers. Alternatively, you can overrun them with your bodies meant for blocking if your removal is good enough.

On the topic of blocking, the cycle that I expect to be pretty undervalued early in the limited format is the Gatekeepers. The 2/4 bodies all provide solid roadblocks and all but the red one provide utility that advances the game-plan of winning long games. I'm going to be quite excited to wheel these guys for a couple weeks, but it shouldn't take too long for their power-level to be made apparent.

~

So, I don't see a ton for constructed coming out of Dragon's Maze, but I anticipate doing a ton of drafts- sort of a trend in modern Magic that I've been noticing. I'll attempt to get some draft videos up when the set becomes available on MTGO and I fully intend to do some streaming at that point. To everybody attending a prerelease this weekend, I wish you the very best of luck, and I encourage you to play with all of the colors and experience the joy of grinding people out in limited.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: MTGO, The Mathematician and The Psycho

Posted on by Sebastien Morin

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

The Mathematician and The Psycho

Hi everybody, there are new kids on the block! We will be writing articles on the Insider column. Since we work as a team, we first decided to introduce ourselves and talk a bit about how we each contribute to the team and how we both plan on contributing to the QS community by sharing our complementary view to what has already been said about the world of MTGO speculation.

Who are we?

Jean-François Goupil :

I’m a 30 year old father of two beautiful children. I first studied economics but eventually became a math teacher. I love sports (especially hockey and tennis) and all kinds of mind games. For everything I do, I must first read or learn about it before really investing into it. I have hundreds of books at home talking about chess, poker, backgammon and, of course, Magic: The Gathering! Whenever I get involved in a game, I go all the way and it tends to get close to becoming an addiction.

I started playing Magic at the age of 10, playing for almost four years. I then sold my entire collection and stopped playing for nearly 14 years. At the age of 16, I was already investing in the stock market. I made a few bucks there and at the age of 18 invested everything in a poker bankroll.

I played poker for a really long time, and it paid for my tuition, my wedding and my first car. Then Black Friday came and, like many others, I was done playing poker. I had to find another addiction... Two years ago, something I would have not expected happened: Magic: The Gathering came back into my life, online!

What do I bring to the team? I’m the rational guy. My economic background, along with my experience in poker and knowledge of math, helps me see the market in a way that helps me make good decisions. I’ll try to show you what I've learned in other disciplines and how it should help you trade successfully on MTGO.

SĂ©bastien Morin:

I'm 29 and the father of two young boys. I'm about to graduate as a Ph.D and I could therefore be referred to as 'the Psycho', since I studied to become a Psychologist. In the clinical field we are taught to be neutral, cool tempered, analytical, etc. This is quite ironic, because I have always been the hot-tempered and rather impulsive guy.

The other piece of irony is that my clinical specialization is towards treating addiction (drug, alcohol, gambling, compulsive gaming, etc.). Rest assured, Jeff doesn't need any treatment... or does he?

I'm sometimes risk-prone or risk-seeking, whereas my partner is more risk averse. I started playing MTG at the age of 9, and stopped playing after Ice Age's release. I got back into the game after a phone call from Jeff, telling me MTGO existed.

What do I bring to the team? I'm analysing the market trends on a daily basis. As you might have read on the forums, I'm routinely screening for market changes. I know a great deal about the bots' rules and mechanics. I know where to go first, how to avoid getting banned, how to buy or unload rapidly. I manage our MTGO account, I update the spreadsheets we use.

In the end, I play very little Magic nowadays, as Jeff is taking care of that part of the game. I'm also the one posting on the QS forums when we've identified a good spec. The goal is to share our ideas with others, because we've profited from others' ideas in the past.

~

In summary, our tempers and our backgrounds are quite different, so different in fact you might think we have very little in common. Generally, when Seb calls Jeff in excitement to talk about a new spec, Jeff's typical answer is "Wait, let's calculate the risk".

When it's the other way around and Jeff has found a blog or a forum mentioning a new answer to the dominant deck, he calls Seb and the answer typically looks something like "How many do we buy?" When we come to an agreement, it's like a Shower of Sparks!

We've realised over time that our differences were, in fact, a huge advantage. Jeff plays so much he knows everything about the metagame and the weekly shifts. Seb spends all his time trading, grinding, acquiring cards and managing the account. We share our thoughts regularly and we are both trusting each other's decisions, and advocate that you find trade partners to discuss your specs thoroughly. It will help you feel more confidant in what you are doing.

From Playing to Speculating: How it all started...

Two years ago we were playing (way too much!) Magic. Over time, we realised there were some predictable patterns with cards' prices. About a year ago, we finally decided to study the MTGO market and invest into it.

We put an even amount of money into a third account. The idea was to re-invest the profits into the account until we would decide to sell the extra tickets. We've never looked back since. Although we learned the hard way, we'd like to share with you what took us hundreds of hours to learn.

Our mission:

There are good specs out there, which are routinely discussed on the forums.

However, we want you to learn about the underlying theories that we've developed to support our decisions, and we hope to successfully put down, in words, our reasoning and the risk-related basic principles we follow. This way you can develop similar reflexes and follow your own path.

We're proposing a series of articles on how to trade on MTGO, with plans to refer to them when we will make our calls. There must be a rationale behind each and every decision!

We are perfectly aware that Matt Lewis is already doing a brilliant job with his coverage of MTGO, and we have learned a great deal from his work. We look forward to bringing you something either complementary or slightly different from what he is already doing. In the end, we want our readers to be better traders and we want our readers to make money! If there is something we both know, it's that when you surround yourself with the best, you just get better.

As a preview, we're looking forward to covering the following topics:

  • The Expected Value: How it Should Affect Your Trading Habits
  • Is MTGO More Liquid than Paper? Why Should You Give it A Try?
  • How to Carefully 'Attack' Bots
  • Where do I Begin? Or How Bankroll Management Theories from Poker Apply to MTGO?
  • Playing the Good Decks = Money. How to Build Up a Decent Collection)
  • Ski during Summer (Always Invest During the Off-Season, or Buy when Everyone is Selling)
  • Calculating Risk Ratio: How to Define Potential Downside and Upside)
  • The Economy-Derived Concept of Niche Market
  • The Potential of Investing in Legacy Staples on MTGO
  • MTGO is All About the Quick Flips: The Most Important Rule of All: Have Tickets Floating Around.
  • What Should You Do with Foils on MTGO?
  • When Should You Consider Running a Bot?

Sharing THE Spreadsheet: A Teaser

I mentioned in the forums that we were managing our account using spreadsheets. One of our spreadsheets is used to watch about 120 cards, all of them being potential targets, depending on seasonality and their historical value.

We would like to have a quick glance with you at a section of the spreadsheet, starting with the lands we're currently watching. We'll go ahead with a few tips based on the information we have collected so far. We also suggest you build your own spreadsheet to make sure you keep track of the many potential targets available out there.

[gview file="https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/SebM42413.xls"]

Breaking it Down

As you can see, we've selected lands that have seen play across Modern and Legacy and have shown significant price changes over the past year. We have provided the floor and ceiling prices for each of these cards, going back a year or so. We also included a very brief comment below each date to help us remember which events/seasons were influencing prices when we did the screening.

Red shows down trends. Some cards are actually reaching all-time highs, such as Wasteland,Underground Sea and Polluted Delta. Overall, Dual lands' prices are through the roof. It's time to stay away from these.

Other cards are leaning towards their all-time low: Savannah and Inkmoth Nexus. So, we should buy these, right? Well, be aware that Savannah is 1) not the most played land in Legacy, and 2) an alternate art reprint has been given out to those who got 15 QPs. As of April 23rd, we feel a new floor has been reached and the card has stabilised at around 11 tix for the Promo Version and 12 tix for the regular one. It is probably a great time to grab some of those. Inkmoth Nexus is an ok pick at 2 tix.

Last but not least, we've included Mox Opal in the spreadsheet, although it's not really a land. We wanted to show you the impacts of redemption on rares and mythics from the SOM block. Mox Opal has reached an all-time high and it really portrays well how much pressure redeemers apply on the market right now. We should see a price drop around or after the cut-off date of November 4th.

~

We hope we caught your interest with this introduction. We would appreciate that you guys throw in a bunch of suggestions and topics you would like to see covered within the upcoming articles. We will gladly accommodation!

- Jeff and Seb

Insider: Looking for Legacy in Dragon’s Maze Part 2

Posted on by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

We've had quite a few more Dragon's Maze cards spoiled since my last article. Let's delve into the Legacy potential for some of these spoiled cards. As usual I will use the following criteria to evaluate a cards Legacy potential:

  1. Power -- In order for any card to see Legacy play it either needs to match or surpass the power of an existing card, or provide a completely unique effect.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- The lower the better. While this is important in all formats, it is especially so in one as efficient as Legacy.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- While this obviously isn't a deal breaker, blue cards should be scrutinized more simply because blue is the most powerful color.
  4. Similarity to Staples -- Does it do something similar to a card that already sees play

Notion Thief

This little guy is my hidden gem of the set. His ability is incredibly powerful and he is a major blowout to the most commonly played card in Legacy, Brainstorm. The wording on him is a bit confusing, but after discussing with a few local judges and players and reading up on him I'll try to explain. While the card specifically says it doesn't effect the first card drawn every turn, it also specifies that this is specifically in regards to the draw step. This means that if an opponent brainstorms during their opponents turn, all three of those cards would be drawn by the owner of Notion Thief despite the fact that the opponent has not drawn a card for that specific turn.

  1. Power -- This guy has flash, 3 power, and a built in plagiarize that constantly sticks around.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- His CMC of 4 is a bit high for a Legacy-playable, but he is pretty much an "anti-JTMS" play as he brutalizes the Jace player. This card now means that playing Jace into an empty field can be a blowout -- for the other player, which has never before been the case.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- He's blue so he pitches to Force of Will.
  4. Similarity to Staples -- Notion Thief isn't really similar to any staples, but his ability is so good against commonly played cards that there is almost no way he won't see some Legacy play.

Verdict: He has a very high chance of seeing Legacy play. His color combination includes the two most powerful colors in Magic. His ability is very good against the most commonly played cards, he has flash, and he provides a decent clock (with 3 power). I'm currently brewing up a U/B control deck to put him in which I'll test heavily in the upcoming few months.

Gaze of Granite

This pseudo-Pernicious Deed has some NicFit players, but many others seem cold to it. The beauty of Deed was that you were investing your mana in two installments; 3 mana 1 turn, and x mana the next. Gaze of Granite requires you to invest it all in one shot. The upside/downside is that Gaze of Granite hits planeswalkers. This does provide a wishable (via Glittering Wish) sideboard kill card for some tough situations, however, it also means that the Nic Fit player can't play their planeswalkers and just keep wiping the field. The biggest concern is usually JTMS and for the 7 mana required to Gaze away a JTMS you could simply cast Karn, Liberated and exile the Jace permanently.

  1. Power -- The card's effect is very powerful and in colors that have the ability to mana ramp faster than any other.
  2. Converted Mana Cost --The CMC is 3 + X which is a bit high in legacy, though the style of deck to play it often hits 6 mana by turn 3.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- Nope.
  4. Similarity to Staples -- This card's similarity to Pernicious Deed has been stressed by quite a few, however, the extra ability to kill Planeswalkers doesn't make it superior to splitting up the mana requirement over 2 turns.

Verdict: A powerful ability that already sees Legacy play, though it seems worse than Pernicious Deed, so whatever deck plays it will be more likely to run it as a 1- or 2-of.

Hidden Strings

This is an interesting twist on Twiddle. You get two twiddles in one card, with the one issue that you can't untap the same permanent twice. While it is a common, this along with Ral Zarek could be used in a Stasis shell (because griefers do love to play Stasis). This is a common, so its ceiling is pretty low, but I would pick up foils if they are super cheap.

  1. Power -- The power level isn't off the charts, but it is something that has seen play before. As usual it works really well with permanents that tap for more than one mana.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- The CMC is 2, which is exactly the same as 2x Twiddle, it may be too low impact for 2 mana, but at the very least it can be used to ramp or fog.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- Yes
  4. Similarity to Staples -- This card is very similar to Twiddle (though you get two tap/untaps), which used to see a lot of play in Tolarian Academy decks. Despite Academy being banned, this card still plays well with artifact mana like Grim Monolith.

Verdict: A useful spell that can allow for ramping and other shenanigans, I see it as playable if a blue mana ramp archetype crops up. It has a much higher chance of seeing in play in a deck like Modern Mono-Blue Tron, though it could show up in a Stasis or High Tide deck.

Spike Jester

A 3/1 with haste for BR is a pretty good deal. It's similar to Hellspark Elemental, though you trade trample and unearth for not dying at end of turn. This will see play in the modern 7 spell decks that typically run 3 damage burn spells to kill the opponent quickly, giving the deck a bit more reach. Being an uncommon, the ceiling is pretty low though I would target foils at pre-release events as they will most likely be valued with all other foil uncommons.

  1. Power -- The power level is on par with the abilities. It's not a bad deal for RB, though giving it trample would have made it much better than Hellspark Elemental.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- The CMC is 2, which is exactly the same as Hellspark Elemental, so requiring 2 different colors is a fair trade for a creature that doesn't have trample and sticks around.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- No
  4. Similarity to Staples -- This card is very similar to Hellspark Elemental which really only sees play in super fast aggro/burn decks, though they typically remain mono-red. However, with all the red fetches the decks already play to fuel Grim Lavamancer splashing some Badlands wouldn't be difficult.

Verdict: More likely to see Modern play, but does fit well into an already existing archetype in Legacy (though that archetype is tier 2 at best).

Skylasher

A 2/2 uncounterable with flash, reach and pro-blue. This guy can hold off Delver of Secrets and Vendilion Clique, so he has potential.

  1. Power -- A 2/2 uncounterable creature with flash isn't exactly broken, but it's not terrible either.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- The CMC is 2 which is the same as Scryb Ranger, which this card is very similar to.
  3. Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- No (EDITED)
  4. Similarity to Staples -- This card is similar to Scryb Ranger in that it can completely halt Delver of Secrets. You trade flying and the ability to untap a creature by bouncing a forest for an extra power/toughness, reach, and an uncounterability clause.

Verdict: This is similar enough to Scryb Ranger that it will most likely be tested, however the only deck that runs Scryb Ranger is Maverick, which would prefer to untap creatures than just block Delvers/Cliques. I don't see it becoming a mainstay in any decks.

Jason’s Archives: Just Because You Can

Posted on by Jason Alt

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Greetings, speculators.

Last night wasn't supposed to be the night of the Banned and Restricted list update, but they moved it to a week earlier. Some crap about interfering with the MODO cycle less. Anyway, not everyone knew about it, so luckily, those of you who are QS Insiders got fair warning so you could be ready with your shopping carts full of cards that are about to go up.

What's the Opposite of "Climax?"

One acceptable answer is, "something trivial or commonplace that concludes a series of significant events." Another answer would be "Last night's Banned and Restricted list update."

For those of you who have managed to avoid social media completely and also live under a rock... actually, if you didn't care enough about it last night, I'm not sure why you'd want to read this part of the article. So, that's awkward. I guess skip ahead to the decklists or something? Have fun not caring about speculating, I guess. The rest of you still with me? Capital! Let's sally forth.

They banned Eggs Second Sunrise in Modern, which will make a lot of people happy, because while that deck was beatable and tough to pilot, playing against it was roughly as annoying as Gilbert Gottfried doing an over-the-top impression of Mario Cantone. It was roughly as painful as sitting on your balls accidentally, then leaping up in surprise and bashing your head on a chandelier. It was roughly as much fun as thermodynamics homework over Spring Break (I had thermo 9 years ago and it still haunts my dreams.) Do I think banning Second Sunrise was graceful and well thought out on Wizards' part? No, but that deck lowered the overall quality of tournament experience for a lot of people so I won't be pouring out any of my 40 for one of the worst decks ever.

Is there any financial opportunity here? I guess; invent a time machine so you can sell your copies a week ago if you still have any. The card was absurdly overpriced and burst bubbles suck. Although if you had a time machine, selling copies of Second Sunrise isn't necessarily your greatest money-making opportunity. You'd probably end up coming back to the present and remembering you forgot to sell them but not caring because now you're a billionaire because you went back in time carrying a sports almanac. Real original idea, jackass.

They also unrestricted Regrowth in Vintage, the titular point of the article. Just because you can buy a bunch of cheap copies of Regrowth at midnight doesn't mean you should.

Doing It Wrong

I had four cripsy-mint copies -- a good adjective to describe a card but not for mint, as it sounds like some sort of wafer covered in mint chocolate, like a thin mint but with a crispy wafer center and oh sweet jesus brb, off to patent a million-dollar cookie idea -- of Revised Regrowth. 1 am came and went and I forgot all about them. A good hour after the B&R, some dude snapped all four copies and slam dunked them in the end zone (I think it's fun to pretend I mix sports metaphors because I'm a nerd). I wasn't inclined to buy into Beta around $50 (I bet those go up) and there is virtually no money to be made buying into Revised at $2 (what if it goes up to $3?! Hooray, you paid for shipping!).

I messaged the buyer and his response laid out what was solid logic and probably seemed like a good argument to him.

  • People will need a playset now (maybe).
  • $2 is low risk (true).

Here's one thing the guy buying my eBay store out of Regrowths forgot.

Nobody plays Vintage.

The few people who do have $10,000 decks. Vintage decks are fun to pimp to the max -- Russian foil [card Jace, the Mind Sculptor]Jace[/card], black-bordered power, Brainstorms that RK Post drew a penis on -- the works. No one is going to pimp their Vintage deck with four white-bordered Regrowth. Even if they want to play four copies, they're going to spend a few bucks and get real cards. Even if people do want a whole playset, they're likely to get a whole playset of something good.

Now while it's true $2 is low risk, it's also extremely low reward. How much can the cheapest version of a card that's been printed five times, including as a foil, go up? Can it quadruple? Maybe, but who will buy them? No one plays Vintage!

Doing It Less Wrong

Since that B&R announcement was a big bag of "who gives a &%*" my twitter feed was abuzz with people talking about how Trade Routes was now banned in EDH (....k) and Staff of Domination was unbanned (say what?). I wonder whether the guy who bought all of my Regrowths but not my Staffs (which I took down) knows that EDH has roughly infinity times more players than Vintage. I wonder whether he saw the EDH B&R announcement. I wonder whether he saw the financial opportunity in buying Staff -- a card that was available under $8 all last night because of how long it had been banned in EDH.

As Aregand pointed out in the comments, it was totally Trade SECRETS and not Trade Routes that was banned. If you come to my article for hot off the press information about EDH that's guaranteed to be accurate 100% you're doing it wrong. Did I make a mistake? Absolutely, but it's not because I and the editorial staff are sloppy or lazy. It's probably because there's no financial opportunity in it and we didn't care. Is that super professional? No, not really, but the crux of the announcement was you could make money buying Staff of Domination and there was no money to be made with Trade X where X= Secrets or Routes. Continue to call me on my factual inaccuracies, because I'd totally do it to you were the roles reversed. The fact that it doesn't matter financially would be irrelevant to me.

Which is a safer bet -- the unrestriction of an unbanned card that's been printed five times in a format no one plays or buying up a totally broken card in a format everyone loves that went from banned to unbanned (technically every card in EDH is "restricted")? Sure, buying in at $2 is lower risk than buying in at $8, and sure EDH is a fan format that's only recently gained legitimacy, but I'll take 1 staff to your 4 Regrowths any day of the week. The buyer's logic was sound -- players can now play with 4 Regrowth and $2 is a low-risk entry point. But just because you can buy Regrowth at $2 doesn't by any stretch of my imagination mean you should.

I took the $8 the guy paid me for my Regrowths and bought a playset of Intruder Alarm. Let's revisit this transaction in a month.

Because I Have To

Decklist time.

SCG Open Seattle Standard Decks

Ugh. I am just so sick of the current Standard it's literally a chore to write this up. I don't care. A new set is about to come out and change everything and this weekend is prereleases anyway so you don't care. No one cares. And when no one cares, a bunch of people build stupid Jund.

Five stupid Jund decks in the top 16. Compare that to 1 each of fun decks like The Aristocrats (which finally did what I've been saying for 4 months and added Blood Artist) and Prime Speaker Bant. Since it was in Seattle, Cedric Phillips played in the event (he's vowed to balance coverage with his new responsibilities as online content coordinator) and played stupid, stupid Jund.

Not Jund

This deck actually looks like fun. You know what helps your dudes evolve? a 4/4 angel coming into play on your side every turn courtesy of Geist of Saint Traft. I love this concept. Instead of the traditional build for Geist in Bant, which is all-in on auras and crappy creatures like Fencing Ace (not that my buddy Carl didn't ruin everyone's life first-picking Ace in Limited), this is a tempo-oriented deck that figures you can keep mana open for unsummon and counterspells if you don't have to play a creature every turn. Classic "aggro-control" (a term replaced by the confusing umbrella term "midrange" which no one has to my satisfaction been able to define), this deck plays creatures, protects them, and watches them grow into formidable threats that outclass their opponent's guys in the mid-game. Too bad it's too late for new exciting decks. Still, Cy Cook deserves a pat on the back.

Jeff Hoogland breaks his "top-eight both portions of every SCG event" streak by getting married. I hate to keep harping on about this guy, but I think he's criminally underrated by you people. He plays the same deck every week, it's a deck no one else is playing except for his friends, he top-eights Standard with his RUG Flash deck and Legacy with his 4-color Loam aggro deck consistently and I feel like everyone is ignoring it. In a sea of net deck zombies, jamming Brad Nelson's latest list and high fiving each other for being such 'spikes', Hoogland is brewing successful decks and inserting them into his opponents' orifices forcefully on the regular.

Ignore his contribution to the metagame at your peril. Or, at least, don't complain about the meta being stale if his builds aren't in your testing gauntlet. I'm allowed to complain about the metagame being stale because I don't play and also because oh my god how &^$#ing stale is the metagame right now!? Seriously!

Those not playing stupid Jund are playing stupid Junk, specifically the Rites Reanimator deck. I should really come out of retirement and jam Seance while I still can because that really hoses the mirror. If you like how the deck runs but want to beat the mirror and you're not at least testing with Seance, I want to remind you that the guy who won the 25k in Chicago by going something absurd like X-0-1 with Seance Rites has been playing Magic for like 4 months.

Seance is at the very least a good sideboard card to bring in against the mirror. It's a free Unburial Rites every turn and I hear that gets there, especially in a match where both players are using their Deathrite Shamans to keep the opponent off of any Rites they manage to dredge. But you've all made up your minds about Seance already so let's move on.

SCG Open Seattle Legacy Decks

Hive Mind wins "Pet Deck of the Week" and the trophy for Bryan Eleyet whose last name reminds me of how the Irish people in the movie "Billy Elliot" pronounced the character's last name. I feel like mentioning that was about as relevant as talking about pre-Dragon's Maze Standard decks, anyway. Nice work, Bryan. Losing to a Pact of the Titan you didn't even want to cast is a miserable experience.

Dark Maverick is an awesome deck. I like Maverick. I like Deathrite Shaman. While Deathrite Shaman and [card Liliana of the Veil]Liliana[/card] being such big deals makes me want to be on a Punishing Grove deck right now, I can't fault this dude for running a more Maverick build with Deathrite for reach. Between Shaman and Scavenging Ooze you have their yard on lockdown, and [card Knight of the Reliquary]Knights[/card] embarrass Goyfs when that happens.

Or you could add blue and run a blue Maverick build which gives you Vendilion Clique, which I hear is unfair when combined with Karakas. Sylvan Safekeeper has a ton of utility in this deck, not the least of which is its ability to get rid of your islands if you have to play against Merfolk.

You might, because Merfolk got 4th place. Shut up, Corbin. No one wants to hear about it.

Wait, were there 15 decks in the Top 16 of this event? Rug Delver overlapped and that was it? How can anyone say this isn't the best format? And how can anyone say SCG is trying to kill it when they just jacked the price of duals again? $200 for an Underground Sea? Or, just buy them for $120 on TCG Player. Whichever fits your budget. Having just dumped my 40 set, I'm surprised they went up so soon after I dumped them (Murphy's Law in action) since I figured it would take bumps in how much the land was played (a la Bayou after RTR came out and gave Legacy both Deathrite Shaman and Abrupt Decay) to make the price go up.

Don't fret, folks. If you're a player, yea, things got worse. But if you're in the finance game, nothing changes. You still buy at buylist and sell at retail, or pay cash and trade them into Standard stuff at buylist prices. Your percentage is the same so a bigger buy-in means a bigger payout at the end. Still, Legacy could become another Vintage, and I said earlier, nobody plays Vintage.

I kind of want to yadda yadda yadda the rest of the deck, but worth mentioning is Cy Cook (remember him from the evolve deck?) who played Dark Depths + Life from the Loam in Legacy. Here's another guy who's brewing his own decks. Maybe try it yourself. You're more creative than you think once you shed the netdeck zombie mindset and the meta won't be prepared for what you come up with.

Finally, someone played Aluren. The deck was never Tier 1, but its adoption could be a good thing if you bought into Aluren when the price went up due to inside information about the judge foil Imperial Recruiter. Most people who bought Aluren can't sell them and they are currently sitting on cardboard they can't move. Just because you can buy in on a speculation doesn't mean you should.

Insider: Recent Movements In Legacy

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

A few weeks ago I reviewed the latest movers on mtgstocks.com and concluded that Casual staples were on the rise. As part of the article, I also discussed how I use Force of Will as my primary metric for Legacy’s health, and that the chart on most Legacy cards had been stagnant for many months.

Well, so much for that…

Star City Games is largely behind this spike because they’ve upped the ante significantly on the blue Legacy staple. Their current buy price on NM copies is $60 and their sell price is $99.99!

Now what does this mean for Legacy? What other Legacy cards have been impacted? What’s going to happen next? Unfortunately I don’t have all the answers to these critical questions. But with the high prices of Legacy, this sort of movement can have profound impact on our portfolios and I intend to at least provide some ideas for this time of change.

Other Legacy Moves

At first glance it seems this all started with Lions Eye Diamond last month. Star City Games made another bold move by bumping their buy list price on the pseudo-Black Lotus to $60, much like they did on Force of Will afterwards. The result was a significant jump in price:

Lions Eye Diamond is on the reserved list and it is a strong Legacy staple. Many have accused the artifact of being degenerate since it is abused to act like Black Lotus in the right decks. Despite this, I still question whether or not the price jump was truly merited. Of course, if Star City Games deems this as a $100 card, it shall ultimately become so. But is this price fixing or is the price of LED destined to reach such a level regardless, and Star City Games is merely helping it along? More on this later.

Even before the jump of Lions Eye Diamond, there was the massive jump in Onslaught Fetch Lands. Take a look at the chart for Polluted Delta as an example:

This card had been comfortable with a $50 price tag for quite a while, but the recent influx of players has driven this card’s price up towards $80! While Polluted Delta and other Onslaught Fetches are all Legacy staples, they also have a prominent position in EDH as well. Perhaps this jump wasn't so much Legacy driven as it was driven by the increase in player base. I mean, if it was at all Legacy driven, then the price of Underground Sea should have also jumped, right? Wait a second…

Take a look at the number four interest from mtgstocks.com from this past Sunday:

This may have been a fluke. That was my gut reaction, until I noticed that Star City Games is paying $125 for NM Revised copies of the popular Dual Land! Card Kingdom pays the second most on the card, a full $15 less than Star City Games. And don’t look now, but NM copies of Underground Sea are sold out at Star City Games at $199.99. Conclusion: yes, these price jumps are driven at least somewhat by Legacy.

The Why and The How

I recently saw Tweets describing how Legacy Staples such as Dual Lands have a $150 cap on pricing, and that the format has stagnated. I myself have been skeptical as to the health of Legacy and, in turn, the sustainability of these elevated card prices.

Here’s some food for thought: everyone agrees Vintage is a stagnant format. The prohibitive cost of Power has severely restricted the number of players who can enjoy the format without proxies. Despite this, Vintage staples are consistently on the rise. I’ve seen retail prices on Black Lotus steadily increase over the past two years. And mtgstocks.com clearly indicates an upward trend on Vintage Staple Bazaar of Baghdad.

Sometimes I wonder if Vintage players consider the possibility of price stagnation, only to witness upward trends like these. It seems even a format with virtually no room for growth can still experience some price growth. Therefore I conclude that there really is virtually no “price ceiling” on Legacy. As long as the format is supported card prices are destined to rise over time.

What Next?

The question of format support weighs heavily on everyone’s minds. What if Wizards ceases to conduct Legacy Grand Prix? What if Star City Games ends Sunday Legacy tournaments altogether? What if…

Recent data suggests this is not likely. Grand Prix Strasbourg was a solid success, and I expect the American Legacy GP to have equally encouraging turnout. Thus, Wizards would be wise to continue their twice-a-year Legacy GP’s for the time being. As for Star City Games, it would seem rather counterproductive for them to increase their buy and sell prices on Legacy Staples if they were considering an end to Sunday Legacy tournaments. On the contrary, it seems like they are ramping up for sustained growth.

As speculators, we cannot know definitively what may be coming next. All we can do is hypothesize based on the information presented to us.

My personal take: everyone knows how I’ve been debating a massive Legacy sell-out these past few months. I was moments away from jamming my Legacy binder into my backpack for my trip to Strasbourg last week. I figured a Legacy GP would have been the best time to move my expensive Legacy collection. As it turns out, my last minute decision to hold onto the cards was the right one. Legacy collections around the world are growing significantly thanks to these recent price hikes, and I’m pleased I can participate in the rally.

Because of these recent pushes by Star City Games, combined with my rekindled joy from playing Legacy, I have decided to stay put for the time being. Don’t get me wrong, I still trimmed a significant portion of my Legacy staples, for better or worse. I had some cards which I never used, and their respective deck archetypes had fallen out of favor. Counterbalance is a good example. The printing of Abrupt Decay has really handcuffed this deck’s viability, although it still sees play.

I also recently bailed on the Natural Order type decks. The card itself has dropped significantly in price because of the lack of success Natural Order decks have had lately:

While a turnaround is possible, I’m beginning to question whether or not Natural Order can be a sustainable Tier 1 deck in the long term. With so many counterspells in the format, the risk of getting 2-for-1’d is great and may not be worth taking. Selling staples like these can free up some cash to help me focus on speculative plays with more upside potential… like Modern Masters reprints!

Net, my attitude towards Legacy has shifted in the past couple weeks. This was driven by firsthand experiences as well as upward pricing trends from major retailers. Perhaps this is a short term move in anticipation of the Legacy GP in America. Perhaps this is a long-overdue increase driven by a growing player base. Either way, it’s evident that the time to bail on this lucrative format has not arrived… yet.

I only hope I will be able to pinpoint a good time to sell before it’s too late… if it ever becomes too late.

…

Sigbits – Legacy Movers

I’ve already touched upon a few Legacy movers of late, but here are a few others.

  • How much play does Nether Void see? Almost none, right? Yet Star City Games has moved their buy price on NM English copies to $125! Good thing I have no need for this card, or I’d be pretty frustrated by this seemingly baseless increase. Sometimes demand can be artificially triggered by simply highlighting to people how small the supply base truly is.
  • Chains of Mephistopheles has also jumped, although I’m surprised to report that ABU Games is paying the most on this one - $90.20 for NM copies. This is still a very impressive price jump for a card that usually occurs as a 1-of in few Legacy decks. Take note of this move as well.
  • While Polluted Delta has always been the King of Fetchlands, second-in-command Flooded Strand has been on the move as well. The card shows up on the interests page of mtgstocks.com for the past week, and the card has been steadily approaching $60. My problem with these is their vulnerability to reprinting. Tread carefully if you’re speculating here.
  • The price chart for Batterskull is rather amusing. The card tanked after rotation, got no love in Modern because of the banning of Stoneforge Mystic, but then rebounded as scarcity kicked in. As a mainstay in the Esper Stoneblade deck, I can see Batterskull approach similar pricing to Umezawas Jitte in due time.

  • One more card, and it’s one that is finally starting to reflect inevitability. Check out Tarmogoyf’s recent price trend. Since a reprint is guaranteed, the downward pricing trend has begun at last. For a while it seemed like rising in price was all this card could do. Glad to see reality kick in, and I am still hopeful I can acquire Modern Masters copies of this guy for half it’s current price level in due time. We’ll see!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Start Using Trader Tools

Latest Magic Sets

Marvel Super Heroes
Marvel Super Heroes Tokens
Through the Omenpaths 2
Marvel Super Heroes Commander
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal Tokens
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Tokens
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Source Material
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Lorwyn Eclipsed Art Series
Browse All Sets
Yawgmoth Thran Physician Wrath of the Skies Vivi Ornitier Urza's Saga Underworld Breach Ugin Eye of the Storms Ugin's Labyrinth Tezzeret Cruel Captain Tamiyo Inquisitive Student tameshi reality architect Spider-Punk Sowing Mycospawn Solitude Shifting Woodland Sephiroth Fabled SOLDIER Ruby Medallion Recruiter of the Guard Ragavan Nimble Pilferer Quantum Riddler Psychic Frog

ION Suite

Discover ION Scanner and ION Retail.
Quiet Speculation