Have you noticed something lately regarding the really popular cards in each format?

I’m seeing card prices finally turn around! Perhaps we’ve passed the seasonal bottoms at last and we’re due for some price bounces in the coming months.

Consider the chart on Volcanic Island, the hottest Dual Land in Legacy right now.

If you look closely at the data over the past couple weeks, you see a very small uptick in price. The card appears to have bottomed at $250 and is now trending in the $266 range.

This is already a 6.4% bounce – perhaps not sufficient to profit from, but at least the price movement is positive.

Force of Will has bounced even further than Dual Lands.

The blue instant bottomed near $86 and has since bounced about 10%. And take a look at the slope of that curve – that’s a pretty drastic snap upward!

Even Standard cards are joining the party. I’ve noticed the likes of Whip of Erebos and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant bounce quite nicely since they started performing very well in large Standard events.

So, if we want to make the argument that a bottom is in on many popular cards (perhaps outside of Khans Fetch Lands), then what’s the play here? Is it too late to get into these cards? What type of upside can we expect?

This week I’ll take a quick look at Standard, Modern and Legacy and share my perspectives on each.

Legacy

I’ve been spending a lot of time discussing this format lately.

It’s no coincidence – not only is it my favorite format, but it also has some significant price swings which also tend to have lasting effects.

With Standard cards, something may spike due to a solid performance in a single weekend, only to drop back down again once the ample supply meets the sudden spike in demand.

With older cards, a sudden spike in demand isn’t as easy to satiate. The result> A longer lasting, more significant move in prices. Another implication of this is that a sudden surge in interest in Magic as a whole will lead to quicker swings in price because supply on the open market is limited.

Perhaps this is why we’re seeing the sudden, significant jump in Force of Will. If we have truly bottomed and we’re about to enter the next seasonal move upwards, I fully expect Force of Will to hit a new high.

Additionally, we can try to apply a technical analysis to the price chart much like we would for a stock. As it turns out, the price on Force of Will has been hitting higher highs and higher lows.

If you look at the chart below, you can see what I mean: I indicated lows with black lines and highs with green lines, and I’ve added the linear projection for Force’s new potential high.

Now, if this technical trend continues, I fully expect Force to hit $120 at TCG Mid barring any change in supply or major shift in the metagame.

And while the trends on other Legacy cards may not be as drastic, I fully believe we’re turning a corner here. This is exactly why I’ve spent the last two months or so acquiring Dual Lands. I’ve got a decent percentage of my MTG portfolio in Duals now, and I am banking on this turnaround trend to move as I am anticipating.

In three months, we should have enough data to say if I’m correct or not in calling this bottom.

In summary, strong Legacy cards – especially older cards that are largely safe from reprinting – are good acquisition targets right now.

Modern

The Modern format is always a bit trickier due to the inconsistencies we’re seeing in organized play support. That being said, there’s one very positive catalyst coming up on the horizon: Modern Masters 2015.

When the initial Modern Masters was released, almost every card not reprinted in the set jumped up appreciably. Stuff like Birthing Pod and Restoration Angel really took off.

Since hitting crazy highs in the spring of 2014, many such Modern staples have dropped significantly.

The chart on Birthing Pod – a true format all-star – is very telling. The format went from being the best way to make money to one ridden with monetary losses. This pricing behavior is consistent across many such staples.

Here’s the important observation now: I think we’re finally bottoming on Modern cards as well.

As the format ages, players learn what is to be expected, and so the Invisible Hand eventually finds the right price on Modern staples. If you look at the price charts above, you can see that the movement, while still negative, has really stabilized a great deal. You no longer see Modern staples showing up on mtgstocks.com’s Interests page because these prices have moved very gradually.

I personally believe this negative slope in Modern prices is about to change. Modern Masters 2015 can be the catalyst for that change. Therefore picking up some strategic Modern cards can be appropriate here.

BUT!

There is one major caveat – with the new Modern Masters set, we can fully expect a large array of new reprints. The result will be a lot of downward pricing pressure on anything reprinted.

And, if my theory is correct, then I believe this new version of Modern Masters will have a larger print run. Uncommons and rares that get reprinted could therefore really take a major beating.

Your best bet will be to tread carefully and diversify. We already know Innistrad block is safe from reprint, so things like Snapcaster Mage and Restoration Angel are fine pickups.

But if a card could potentially be reprinted, I say don’t go deep. It’s fine if you want to spread your risk and pick up a few things here and there, but my advice is to steer mostly clear of any cards that can be reprinted, except in minimal quantities.

There’s plenty out there that won’t get the reprint treatment this time around, so why bother wasting resources on cards with so much uncertainty surrounding their future prices?

Standard

At last we’re seeing life in Standard cards!

It’s very encouraging to see that the cards getting increased play in Standard are also finally moving upward in price. This tells me it’s finally safe to dabble in Standard again.

But, once again, I must recommend extreme caution. Only cards seeing a lot of play right now are safe to pick up – and, of those, I’d prefer focusing on the new cards from Khans of Tarkir.

It may be a little too soon to think about rotation, but the recent downward movement on staples like Sylvan Caryatid makes me worry about their future price movement. If significant play in Standard post-rotation wasn’t enough to catalyze prices higher, then the ensuing downward pressure from their own rotation can only bode poorly.

I will say that other cards also exhibit the same bottoming behavior. Check out the price chart on Temple of Triumph.

After bottoming right around Khans’s release, Temple bounced through November and then pulled back.

But much like some of the other charts above, I’m noticing a slight uptick in price over the last week or so. The time horizon on these Standard cards is extremely limited as compared with Legacy and Modern, but I still think we may see one last push towards $5 here.

Unfortunately, that’s not enough movement to justify a buy, and, in fact, over the next couple months, I plan on unloading all my temples into any sort of bounce. I’d much rather have this money in Sidisi, Brood Tyrant and Siege Rhino if I want exposure to Standard at all.

Needless to say, Standard is the format that interests me the least from a financial standpoint.

Wrapping it Up

I’m calling it – I think we’ve bottomed here! I’m looking at price curves on a lot of cards and I’m seeing the same small upward shift over the past couple weeks. As we move into the spring, we should see the traditional bounce in prices. As long as Wizards doesn’t do anything too crazy.

With this outlook in mind, I have to say that older Legacy cards and Modern cards less prone to reprinting are my favorite targets here. Dual Lands have been great to acquire during this winter lull.

But if the price to entry is too daunting on these, picking up other Legacy gems could also pay out well. Stoneforge Mystic can’t be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015 because it’s banned from the format, and so this card could see a new push to highs as well. Even Jace, the Mind Sculptor could be worth a closer look.

My suggestion is to consider your favorite targets, prioritizing those which fit my criteria above, and begin a gradual acquisition. If you can move cards at risk of reprint in MMA 2015, all the better. Rotating into these recently bottomed  cards and are now turning around should set you up for a profitable open to 2015.

…

Sigbits

• Here’s some more evidence that Stoneforge Mystic is bottoming: it may be on sale at Star City Games this month for $19.88, but it is completely sold out. I firmly believe this card can return to its previous high of $30 in the coming months.
• Star City Games already has their price on Force of Will right where my projection is: $119.99. AND they’re sold out. I am confident this can become the TCG Mid price by spring.
• I mentioned how hot Whip of Erebos is in Standard. We’re talking serious demand here: Star City Games is sold out of both the normal and foil version at $4.50 and $7.19 respectively. Once their sale is over, I expect these to be restocked at a significantly higher price.