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Faces of Aggro: Boros Pia Aggro in Pioneer

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Pia's Revolution

In this week's video, I play a brand new Aggro deck that's sweeping the Pioneer format: Boros Pia Aggro! This is a brand new deck that utilizes a new card from March of the Machine: the Aftermath Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival. This card has proved to be a surprisingly powerful lynchpin card that has spawned a brand new archetype in Pioneer. It, combined with Reckless Impulse and another newcomer Wrenn's Resolve, generates a ton of card advantage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival

The Rule of Eight

If you've been playing Magic for a long time you have probably heard of "The Rule of Eight" when it comes to having eight copies of the same card to make a specific strategy. But for those who haven't been playing long or maybe you just haven't come across the phrase before, "The Rule of Eight" is a term that refers to the idea that if you are going to build a deck around a card you need to have "eight" copies of it.

For example, Modern Living End is a combo deck that relies on Living End to bring back a ton of creatures that you cycle to the graveyard, but instead of Suspending it and casting it fairly you can cast a card with Cascade like Violent Outburst or Shardless Agent to ensure you always hit and cast your Living End as early as turn three. You get to play four copies of both Violent Outburst and Shardless Agent making your deck extremely consistent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End

The way this relates to our deck is that we finally have access to eight copies of Reckless Impulse by way of Wrenn's Resolve. This helps fuel our Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival making hasty flying thopters every time we play a card that was exiled by them. Not only do these fuel our Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revivals they also make things like flooding and running out of steam difficult to do because they both essentially draw us cards even if Pia isn't on the battlefield. They can both stand on their own as cards that are not only playable but quite good in an aggressive strategy like ours.

Of course, when Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival is on the battlefield we just get to go wild with all the thopters each time we cast our Reckless Impulse and Wrenn's Resolves.

Prowess is Powerful

The other creatures in this deck all have prowess. They work in beautiful harmony with Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival, Reckless Impulse, and Wrenn's Resolve.

Abbot of Keral Keep, Soul-Scar Mage, and Monastery Swiftspear are all excellent at getting aggressive and Abbot of Keral Keep even has great synergy with Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival. By exiling the top card of our library we can trigger Pia's ability while also triggering all of the prowess creatures we may have on the battlefield.

Soul-Scar Mage can be combined with our burn spells to take down big creatures that get in our way, or at the very least make it so that we can swing past opposing Bonecrusher Giant // Stomps and Graveyard Trespasser // Graveyard Gluttons. This makes Soul-Scar Mage an auto-include in this deck.

Lastly, Monastery Swiftspear is the best red aggro creature in Pioneer, and where you start building red aggro decks in this format. The fact that she works so well with our game plan due to having prowess is the cherry on the beatdown cake here.

Dies to Removal

Play with Fire, Skewer the Critics, and Chained to the Rocks are our three premier ways to deal with pesky creatures that get in the way of us attacking. Both Play with Fire and Skewer the Critics can be combined with Soul-Scar Mage to deal with higher toughness creatures so we can just swing past them and force our opponents to chump block. Chained to the Rocks on the other hand outright deals with pretty much everything on its own, assuming you have a white mana source and a Mountain in play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chained to the Rocks

The Decklist

Boros Pia Aggro, Pioneer

Creatures

2 Abbot of Keral Keep
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival
4 Soul-Scar Mage

Sorceries

4 Light Up the Stage
4 Reckless Impulse
4 Skewer the Critics
4 Wrenn's Resolve

Instants

4 Play with Fire

Enchantments

3 Chained to the Rocks
4 Kumano Faces Kakkazan // Etching of Kumano

Lands

4 Battlefield Forge
1 Den of the Bugbear
2 Inspiring Vantage
6 Mountain
2 Needleverge Pathway // Pillarverge Pathway
4 Sacred Foundry

Sideboard

3 Alpine Moon
1 Chained to the Rocks
2 End the Festivities
1 Jegantha, the Wellspring
2 Reidane, God of the Worthy // Valkmira, Protector's Shield
4 Rending Volley
2 Showdown of the Skalds

Wrapping it Up

Is this the next top-tier deck in the Pioneer meta? Maybe. Is it an insanely fun deck that can kill out of nowhere? Absolutely. I really enjoy high synergy decks like this. If you also dig decks whose cards are greater than the sum of their parts, definitely give Boros Pia Aggro a spin because it could just be the next big thing in Pioneer!

Now that you've read the article go watch the companion video over on YouTube. Make sure to Like, Comment, and Subscribe so you don't miss a single video!

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LessAlex

LessAlex, AKA Alex Blackard, is a Magic: The Gathering content creator who is passionate about playing Control decks in Constructed, particularly in the Pioneer, Modern, Explorer, and Historic formats. He also enjoys experimenting with combo decks and brewing up new and exciting strategies to stay ahead of the competition. With a focus on in-depth strategy breakdowns and gameplay, LessAlex offers a unique perspective on the game that is both entertaining and informative. His competitive resume includes a Top 4 at an SCG Open in 2014, splitting an NRG Trial in 2017, as well as countless SCG IQ Top 8s and Game Day wins. He hosts The Control Freak Podcast where he discusses playing Control decks in Constructed, and brings on guests including prominent players and creators to share their expertise. You can catch him streaming on Twitch weekdays at 9 am, and on his YouTube Channel for even more content.

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Prospects for Tales of Middle Earth Collector Boosters

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The quest is over. After about two weeks, the The One Ring has been found and graded. The news hit my Twitter feed last Friday, capped off with a tweet from PSA themselves.

Personally, I would hold out for a PSA 10 copy, but that’s neither here nor there.

With the exciting (admittedly successful) promotion ending, it begs a few questions regarding the financial implications for Tales of Middle Earth product. I just wrote a piece about draft booster boxes last week, but I feel like this set needs to be revisited given this development.

First and Foremost: Collector Boosters

Many factors influence the price of sealed product. In the case of Tales of Middle Earth collector boosters, the most significant factor was arguably the mystique of The One Ring, valued at upwards of $2,000,000. Never mind the odds of opening this card were one in three million. Never mind these odds meant this card contributed less than $0.50 to a collector booster’s expected value (EV). Never mind that there was a greater chance of becoming a movie star than opening this card.

People chased the gamble and it led to a significant premium on these packs.

Now that the chase has concluded, what is next for this premium sealed product? Many members of the Magic finance community predicted a sharp decline. Chris aka Chi Style is financially savvy and a trusted friend, and his tweet summed up a popular opinion:

I believe “balloon pop” paints a nice picture, don’t you?

Sure enough, just hours after PSA’s announcement, collector booster boxes dropped from about $480 to $380—Chris’s 20% prediction was spot on.

Fellow Quiet Speculation writer David Schumann captured the action in a precise way, grabbing a screen capture of recent sales on TCGplayer as the news unfolded.

Balloon popping indeed!

More to the Story

It’s true that the average sale price of a Tales of Middle Earth collector booster box dropped significantly since The One Ring was found. However, the price action since June 30th hasn’t been as dire. After bottoming under $350, prices rebounded unexpectedly the following two days. Check out the market price chart for the past month:

While it’s no surprise the price is still well off its high, those $350 boxes didn’t stick around for very long, and now boxes are selling for north of $400 once again.

Part of this rebound could be driven by TCGplayer’s recent kickback deal on sealed product. Even I took the bait and picked up a cheap draft booster box of Crimson Vow to save for a rainy day. Perhaps the incentive was enough to catalyze buying, despite the fact that The One Ring was already opened.

Additionally, there are still a bunch of valuable and coveted serialized and non-serialized rings to be found in collector booster packs.  In total, the Sol Rings to be found include:

  • Human: 9,000 copies
  • Dwarven: 7.000 copies
  • Elven: 3,000 copies
  • Foil, Serialized Human: 900 copies
  • Foil, Serialized Dwarven: 700 copies
  • Foil, Serialized Elven: 300 copies

These are all expensive and will handsomely reward those individuals lucky enough to open one. Currently, the market price of the human, dwarven, and elven non-foil Sol Rings are about $182, $215, and $690, respectively. Serialized copies sell for well over $1,000.

Just because the “one ring to rule them all” was found doesn’t mean there are no more incentives to open collector boosters. Let’s not forget the surge foils that can also be found in collector boosters—some of these can be quite valuable!

As much as I would have liked to have opened a $2,000,000 card from a booster pack, I don’t think a single player (no matter how entitled) would complain about opening a beautifully illustrated, $200 surge foil Deserted Temple from their $40 collector booster pack.

Nope. I’d say that mathematically speaking the locating of The One Ring should have virtually no impact on collector booster prices. A $0.33 reduction in EV is not enough to move the needle. While psychologically this will definitely reduce demand, the numbers suggest that these are still nice lottery tickets, albeit without a grand prize.

Meanwhile, the Rest of the Set…

Last week I talked about the underwhelming power level of The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth singles. The set is legal in Modern, but not Standard, and as such a little underpowered for this context. I used this as a rationale to predict a softening in prices on singles from this set.

It’s only been a week since I wrote that, but thus far the trend feels contrary to my prediction. Each day I check MTG Stocks’ Interests page, and each day I see more price increases from this set. I wasn’t surprised to see The One Ring climb as it broke into eternal formats. Some other cards, such as There and Back Again and Delighted Halfling, I did not expect to show up.

Sometimes TCGplayer market pricing isn’t reliable as they can be manipulated by sellers with artificially high price points. However, I’m also noticing that some of Card Kingdom’s buy prices are also climbing relative to where they were just a week ago.

Nazgul’s buy price has rebounded over the past week. Delighted Halfing has followed suit, bouncing from an $8 buy price to $9.75.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Delighted Halfling

In fact, not counting foils and alternate printings, I count over 20 cards (including each different instance of Nazgul) that buylist for more than TCGplayer’s market price on a Tales of Middle Earth draft booster. If I stretch down to cards that buylist over $2, that count reaches about 30. While the set still has its share of bulk rares, I’m surprised to see demand remain resilient thus far.

Give It Time

This is not a declaration that all Tales of Middle Earth cards are a screaming buy. Far from it. I still anticipate that prices on singles will see downward pressure in the coming weeks, as more product is opened. I do feel a little more optimistic, however, compared to last week.

Perhaps there is enough demand from the Lord of the Rings crowd to keep prices elevated relative to a Standard Premier set. Draft booster boxes are still hovering in the $170 range. I’m starting to develop optimism that these boxes will hold that price point, buoyed by a surprising array of valuable singles in the set.

If sealed product is opened a bit less now that The One Ring has been found, perhaps that provides another reason for singles prices to hold up better than expected. Before, people were cracking collector boosters left and right in the chase for the coveted card. If the pace of pack opening diminishes going forward, we could see single prices hold up better than I anticipated.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Orcish Bowmasters

Either way, I maintain that predicting price action on this set remains challenging given its novelty. I thought an underpowered Modern set would hold up poorly. Commander demand, alongside nostalgia for the franchise, could be enough to overcome the lack of power level in sixty-card eternal formats. If that’s the case, then there’s no telling what the ceiling on these cards could be years from now, especially if reprints are absent.

Wrapping It Up

There’s no arguing the demand for collector boosters will decline dramatically now that the The One Ring has been found. These lottery tickets lost their luster now that the grand prize has been claimed.

Despite this, I’m seeing some promising price action in collector boosters over the past couple of days. Could it be that these won’t tank as badly as the most pessimistic predictions suggested? Are there enough other incentives—consolation prizes, if you will—to help sustain demand for these valuable booster packs?

I think this is possible. I don’t expect collector booster prices to reach a new high soon. I would predict these will hit a new low well before they reach a new high. These may not be the “popping balloon” the finance community quickly predicted once the coveted ring was found. Prices may hold up a bit better than that given the other worthwhile pulls from these packs.

Add in the fact that other singles from the set are performing better than I anticipated, and it could bode well for this product over the coming months. Demand will ebb as the summer wraps up and new Standard sets are hyped, but there may be an underlying appreciation for Tales of Middle Earth that lasts over time. If this happens, prices may hold up better than even Wizards of the Coast could have hoped.

Where Have All the Good Buys Gone?

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I'm sure some of you read the title and got this song stuck in your head. You're welcome. Every morning I check the Interests page on MTGStocks to see what cards are moving. For as long as I can remember, before any big set release, there are usually a number of cards trending upward in price and often a couple of major spikes for cards that play particularly well with something from that set.

The fact that Wizards of the Coast seemed to go big with its The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth promotions and considered it a premium set, I expected some powerful "Build Around Me" type cards. I am honestly pretty disappointed by the lack of such cards. The absence of significant price movement seems to indicate I am not alone.

All hope is not lost though. We have seen a few cards move with this set and I think there are some that have potential, though we need to be methodical in our thinking before buying in.

What Makes a Good Buy?

There are a few things I tend to look for in speculation targets. The first is to get an idea of potential demand:

  • What formats will want this card?
  • Will it be a sideboard staple or a maindeck card?
  • Does it create a new deck or archetype?
  • How many copies will a deck want to run?

Second I look to see how "reprintable" it is.

  • Does the card have a specific mechanic that might prevent it from being easily reprinted?
  • Does the card include any specific names of either characters or places that would make it awkward to include in other products?
  • Does the card's casting cost make it difficult to reprint, for example, hybrid mana or Phyrexian mana?

Lastly, I look at the actual buy-in price. The lower it is, the less potential loss there is should it fail, and the more copies I can get without breaking the bank. On the opposite hand, the higher the buy-in, the more actual current demand there likely is for a card which means its price floor is higher. Admittedly, I care far more about the former than the latter.

With all these considerations in mind, here are two new commanders from The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth, and some buys for each deck potentially worth speculating on.

Shelob, Child of Ungoliant

It looks like Shelob, Child of Ungoliant has caused a few spider-themed cards to jump up in price. The most noticeable being Arachnogenesis which is up around 30%. This isn't that surprising given that it's a Commander all-star to begin with.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shelob, Child of Ungoliant

It's important to understand what kind of Commander player will want to build a Shelob, Child of Ungoliant deck. While Shelob, Child of Ungoliant looks to be a unique creature with a "build around me" ability, it doesn't seem like the ability itself is powerful enough to become a top-tier deck. This means that the player who wants to build this deck is more likely to go in the direction of thematic, i.e. spider-centric, than raw power. This mindset leads us to our first potential speculation target.

A card that hasn't seemed to move yet is Lolth, Spider Queen.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lolth, Spider Queen

This potential speculation target has a few things going for it and a few going against it. Thanks to her static ability it isn't that hard to play her and get an emblem in the same turn. She also provides card advantage and can protect herself. The biggest strike against playing her is that her emblem while flavorful, is underwhelming. Still, someone focused on flavor over power will want to include Lolth, Spider Queen in their deck list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blex, Vexing Pest // Search for Blex

Next up on my list is Blex, Vexing Pest // Search for Blex. While Blex isn't a spider itself, it does serve as a spider lord of which it stands alone on that front. It also happens to be a mythic from a set that was released during the Pandemic, so far less was drafted. While it isn't quite a bulk mythic by most standards, given copies are under $2 it is, at the very least, likely near its floor. It even serves as a way to get actual card advantage in colors that often lack a lot of card draw. As this is the only actual spider lord in Magic, it again will likely make these decks thanks to fitting the theme.

Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant

Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant definitely feels like a casual build-around-me card. However, activating his ability should win you the game on the spot. To do so though, our whole deck has to be designed to get to the 111-life threshold. Once there, we throw in a Crashing Drawbridge and Craterhoof Behemoth and call it a day, though we must keep in mind thatCrashing Drawbridge does not have haste itself.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant

Unlike Shelob, Child of Ungoliant, Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant's ability is powerful enough to be a Commander deck with some teeth. This means that demand for the "auto-include" cards for this deck have a higher likelihood of popping in price and a higher price ceiling. The question then becomes will any price spikes actually stick or will more competitive players build the deck and realize that the 111-life threshold is a lot harder to reach than they anticipated and sell off the cards? Unfortunately, only time will tell on that one. Given Wizards of the Coast's penchant for reprinting cards, I tend to air on the side of selling out once I have reached my target profit and I keep the sell price ceiling lower than I did before Secret Lairs. This doesn't maximize profit, but it does minimize risk.

A while back I wrote an article about an Abzan life gain deck I built that renewed some of my passion for speculation. My first choice of spec target in that article was Blossoming Bogbeast, a card which was under $1 at the time and is now selling for $10+ in large part due to Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Veinwitch Coven

Veinwitch Coven, another card, I called out in that article has since doubled up in value and also seems like a no-brainer for a Bilbo deck. I actually think the card still has some room to grow and I have a personal sell price for my copies at $5.99.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Well of Lost Dreams

Decks that don't play blue often struggle to find extra card draw, in the olden days one might even resort to cards like Howling Mine in Commander. Thankfully, we have much better options now. The fact that Well of Lost Dreams triggers any time we gain life means that cards can be drawn on multiple opponents' turns. Now we did just get a reprint of this card in Commander: The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth, so copies are still entering the supply and we already have 7 printings. I would specifically target the Schematic version though. It's likely rarer than any of the others, and copies are still sitting well under $1. The card has had enough reprints that the price ceiling is likely $3 at most.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lathiel, the Bounteous Dawn

This card seems bonkers in this style of deck. One is likely to be running multiple Soul Wardens and the fact that this card triggers on each end step allows one's team to grow big in a hurry. It also has "splash" demand as it's a good card for any deck that focuses on counters and can serve as a commander for a Unicorn creature type deck. Original Commanders Legends copies are bulk rares. The most expensive version is the Halo Foil version from March of the Machine: Multiverse Legends sitting right under $6 and featuring different artwork. One must ask oneself if people prefer this new artwork enough to pay significantly more for it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Witch of the Moors

I honestly didn't even know this card existed before working on this article. It's exactly the type of card I like to find when digging for speculation targets. It has only 2 actual printings and both are much rarer than a typical rare. It was in the original Jumpstart set which quickly fell out of favor for many players as a lot of the rares were bulk rare reprints and, in my opinion, the games just didn't come off as all that fun. Its only other printing is on The List, which is Wizards of the Coast's current way to introduce even more reprints into the overall supply. Neither of these versions is all that common. Its current $4 price tag could very easily double with a small uptick in demand thanks to this scarcity.

Good Buy

Good Buys seem to be getting harder and harder to come by these days, but they aren't all gone. Normally, we see a lot more cards spike when a heavily anticipated new set releases. This is especially true of a set with a lot of legends in it. Perhaps the lack of these spikes indicates that the player base's wallets have finally been stretched to the breaking point. If that's the case, then we need to be a lot more meticulous when analyzing spec potential as there are going to be fewer big hits. We also need to keep in mind that the risk of a reprint is higher now than it has ever been.

The Ring’s True Power: Sequence Better in LTR Draft

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In a grindy BETW mirror-match, I had fallen to a precipitous life total. Fortunately, I had the tools to stabilize. Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff would trade on the ground with my opponent's Orc Army, and my freshly played Voracious Fell Beast would defend my life against the three Spirit tokens. I would untap, crack the Food, and the board would be in my favor with a grip of cards. Unfortunately, that's not what happened.

Because of poor sequencing, Lotho triggered, drawing me a card, creating me a Treasure and, most importantly, inflicting the loss of a single life. Next turn, I died to two of the three attacking spirits for exactly lethal.

Lord of the Rings: Tales in Middle Earth (LTR) is a format of small edges and costly mistakes. After the hyper-aggressive ONE and the princely MOM, LTR feels like a return to the basic fundamentals of Magic. Of all those fundamentals, sequencing is particularly important in the format. Today, we'll look at LTR's sequencing challenges and how they prove especially pertinent with two new mechanics, The Ring and amass.

What Is Sequencing?

Sequencing refers to the order in which we perform our game actions. In life, this could be as simple as putting the butter on the pancake before you pour the syrup on it. The syrup traps the butter to the warm, fluffy pancakes, thus making it easier to spread. If we put the syrup on the pancake first, the butter slips around, and we've got a whole situation on our hands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Second Breakfast

In Magic, sequencing helps us optimize our gameplay. Some of it is simple: we want to put our equipment on a creature before it attacks, we want to cast our combat tricks after blocks are declared, etc. However, different circumstances call for different sequences.

In LTR the most common sequencing decisions involve the two keywords, amass and tempt. For both abilities, we need to consider whether to invest more into our current attack, or to prepare to rebuild should things go wrong.

A World of Sorceries

Instants let us sequence with flexibility. We can wait for an opponent to take a game action or to be at their most vulnerable before utilizing an instant-speed effect. LTR downgrades some familiar effects from instant to sorcery, typically offering tempt or amass as a payoff.

Slow it down

Because of this limitation, we want to be very careful as to how we plan our turns. Thoughtful sequencing is necessary for maximizing Orc Armies and Ring-bearers, as these game pieces are amongst the most important in the limited landscape.

Ring-bearer 101: Eggs vs. Basket

The default decision for both amass and tempt is to do it before combat. We want our attackers to be large, so we want to amass. The Ring's second level triggers when declaring attacks, while the first and third happen before blockers are declared. That value is all sequence-dependent, and we miss opportunities when we do this post combat.

We always have to ask how The Ring is contributing to our gameplan. The Ring makes small creatures evasive and eventually punishing to block. This should push decks in a more aggressive direction; however, the most significant ability is granted at level two. Looting every turn helps smooth out hands regardless of position.

If we can reliably attack with a level two Ring-bearer, we have an enormous advantage over opponents who can't. Level three can punish blockers, especially the 1/3s and 1/4s in the format, but what do we lose if we can't re-equip The Ring? Often times it is better to lose a looter in combat, and then tempt again to set up more looting for the future. This is especially true if we can generate value from the bearer on the way out.

For value's sake

Losing the Ring-bearer can mean our engine no longer functions. When deciding between the first three levels on the ring, we need to consider what we stand to lose if we can't tempt a new creature. The longer we anticipate the game going, the more valuable an active Ring-bearer will be.

BYOB: Build Your Own Bolt

Looting accrues advantage. We want to tap that advantage every turn if we can. An active Ring-bearer develops our hand and battlefield. But when we get to step four, the Ring's evasion becomes even more punishing, and the mechanic shifts to be even more aggressive.

Because it triggers after the other three, level four makes the best use of the instant-speed effects. The fourth level triggers when our creature does damage. So, in an ideal scenario, we can get the sacrifice trigger off a level three Ring when opponents declare blocks, and then move The Ring at instant speed to also get the level four trigger on an unblocked creature.

When we're playing a tempt-heavy deck, cards like Slip On the Ring and Dreadful as the Storm can overperform. They facilitate difficult attacks while passing the ring to an unblocked attacker. Sneaking in a Ring-bearer this way can earn us three damage. Whether we use The Ring's evasion or instant-speed tricks to supplement our pressure, free Lava Spikes should end the game quickly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lava Spike

Sequencing with Ring-bearers often asks us to evaluate the current attack versus the possibility of future attacks. My heuristic is that I want to set up as many turns where I'm attacking with a Ring-bearer as possible.

Ring-bearers, landcycling, and scry

It's a basic virtue of sequencing that we want to do things as late as possible, as long we still reap the desired effect. Basically, the idea is that we get maximum information before committing to an action. So why would we ever landcycle before our looting trigger?

If we're digging for outs, it might make sense to thin our deck first. The landcycler can only fetch its corresponding basic. Getting that land out of the deck before looting raises our chances of drawing the card we need. Affecting the deck size after drawing may not do anything at all. And the land may be a good card to discard regardless.

Similarly, we usually want to sequence scry triggers before looting trigger. This will allow us to put the desired card in hand rather than draw randomly and set up the following turn. If we're hellbent and know this card will be tossed away, it makes more sense to scry after looting, so that we control a future card in hand rather than one milled to the graveyard.

When to Pass on Amass

An oversized Army token has ended many a game in LTR limited. It's very easy to get them to four power, and after that, they become a huge issue. Because bigger attackers hit harder, it often makes sense to play out amass pre-combat. However, caution has some value here.

Isolation at Orthanc matches up really well against Orc Armies. While I will routinely Torment of Gollum into an open four mana, I don't want to load up on amass if I'm staring down a potential Isolation. Again, we have to ask ourselves: how many eggs are we willing to put in one basket? Unlike The Ring's levels, when we lose our Orc Army, we have to start from scratch.

My goal with tempt is usually to attack with a level two or higher Ring-bearer as many times as possible. My goal with amass is to have the most +1/+1 counters left for the following turn. Both of these approaches need to take the game's pace into account, but provide a good place to start.

Both amass and tempt look to build out a single threat, but once that threat is neutralized, we are forced to regroup. When it comes to both effects, we want to think about what the value and goal of this combat compared to how we envision the rest of the game developing. With amass, my heuristic is more about removal. I want my creature to be big enough to demand removal, without being so big that I'm overcommitted. Once my opponent shows they can't interact with it, I'm more confident going all-in.

Thinking of Amasster Plan

When are small Armies better than large ones? If our plan is to convert tokens for value, it might make more sense to squeeze value from a token before amassing again. While red and blue often want to build a massive Orc Army and use it to pressure opponent life totals, BW cares more about the cardboard than the dice placed on it.

Make objects, make profit

To be fair, black has plenty of ways to use smaller amass tokens without white's support. Gollum, Patient Plotter, Gothmog, Morgul Lieutenant, and Cirith Ungol Patrol all like smaller tokens. Black's flexibility makes it the best color in the format.

There's some tension between these cards, though, and sorcery-speed effects like The Torment of Gollum or Dunland Crebain. Once we grow an amass token to 3/3 or 4/4, we're probably looking to do more with it than sacrifice it for value. Maximizing these resources over a series of turns can be complicated, and our decision is game-state dependent. Usually I'm asking myself, "am I ready to pressure their life total, or am I trying to grind value?"

All-In on LTR

I'm not one for Core Sets. I've heard them described as a pallet cleanser for the super complicated formats that cycle through the rest of the year. They've been explained to me as a soft reset to slow power creep. Sure. If you say so.

Furthermore, I'm not a huge fan of the Universe Beyond content. Worst of all, I have concerns about the pricing of this set and what it means for general product distribution.

Still, I have to admit, I'm completely smitten by this limited format. The power level rewards tight gameplay. Uncommon build-arounds really shine, and with a second "signpost uncommon," archetypes have more variation. Something about it reminds me of an older brand of Magic.

While that may just be the nostalgia of a 25-year veteran of the game, I've really enjoyed it so far. It rewards doing the small things right, and sequencing is a big part of that. So let me know what sequencing situations you've come across in your journeys of LTR.

A Different World: Vintage, Explained

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The only known cure of burn-out is a change of pace. That's solid advice for life in general, but it was also my approach to testing frustrations. As I discussed last week, I spent the latest Magic Online (MTGO) All-Access Pass period extensively testing Pioneer. It wasn't a fun experience, so to break it up, I also played more Vintage in two weeks than I had in the past two years. It's something I'd recommend to every player, but there are some eccentricities that they need to be ready for before trying Vintage.

Today, we'll explore what makes Vintage special, dispel some myths, and review the format's rules of engagement as I've come to understand them.

The Moneyed Format

Most players are at least aware of Vintage, and for those that aren't, Vintage is where (nearly) every card in every expansion in Magic's history is legal. Rather than banning cards, Vintage restricts them to a single copy. For many hideously broken cards, it's the only format where they're legal for play, Commander included. Therefore, it is the most powerful format in all of Magic.

That power is not without cost. Literally: Vintage is the most expensive format in Magic, no ifs ands or buts. For a player looking to buy into Vintage, it's going to cost a minimum of $10,000 to get a competitive deck. That's because the cheapest deck by far is Vintage Dredge which requires a playset of Bazaar of Baghdad, the best price for which is (at time of writing) $2.422.48 a pop.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar of Baghdad

Thus, the format remains firmly outside 99.99% of the general public's price range. And even for those wealthy few who could buy into Vintage, there's not much reason to do so. Vintage events are few and far between these days. There was a time when they were kept afloat by allowing proxies and Wizards officially unofficially allowed it. There's been a crackdown, and now there's no market for paper Vintage events.

Online Opportunity

For this reason, it is only really possible for most players to experience Vintage on MTGO. Which is unfortunate, as MTGO isn't popular, at least relative to Magic at large. Players generally don't like paying real money for intangible cards, and most that do want to play the formats they play in paper. The MTGO-only formats being niche at best demonstrate this aptly.

However, I'd argue that playing online Vintage is the best value for money in all of Magic. In terms of relative price, online Vintage is as cheap as it gets. The Dredge deck I linked above is currently $11,753.86 in paper and $349.94 (tix and dollars are roughly equivalent), or 33.59 times cheaper. It only gets more extreme from there.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Online Vintage decks cost about the same as online Modern or Legacy decks. However, that's deceptive, as all the expensive cards in Vintage decks are expensive because they're also Legacy and/or Modern staples. Vintage-only cards cost pennies on the dollar. You can get the whole Power 9 for about $35. Since Vintage-caliber cards extremely rare, decks rarely need updates or rotate. Buy once, play forever.

Money Where My Mouth Is

I am speaking from experience here. I bought my paper Death and Taxes deck on MTGO in 2020 at the start of the pandemic, on the belief that I wouldn't have to put much money into Legacy and could just play forever. That was true for about six months, until I caved to collective wisdom and joined the Yorion, Sky Nomad crowd. Since then, I've paid for Solitude both in paper and online and all the initiative cards online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

During that time, whenever there was an All-Access event, I'd have a Vintage Taxes deck made up to dabble with on the side. I updated it for the first time ever this time with the white initiative creatures and was having a blast when I had an epiphany. The only cards for the Vintage deck I didn't already own from Legacy were the Vintage-only cards. And I could have them all for about $40. So, now I'm playing Vintage Initiative.

I literally hadn't updated the White Taxes deck I'd proxied up online for All-Access events from 2020 until 2023. That had been my entire plan in buying Legacy Taxes online. Frankly, from a bang-for-buck stance, buying Vintage from the get-go would have been a better plan. Having to update a Vintage deck at all is quite rare, and most decks have barely changed in the past ten years. It's incredibly stable.

Enter the Unknown

So now that I've intrigued at least some new Vintage players, it's time to throw out a big BUT FIRST! Vintage doesn't work like other formats, be they competitive or casual. All players will recognize elements they're familiar with, but things are happening in ways which would be considered impossible and/or terrible in their home formats.

Trying to play Vintage like normal Magic is a recipe for frustration and failure. The rules of engagement are different. What matters is different. There are cards that are define Vintage are are garbage elsewhere, Paradoxical Outcome foremost among them, Slash Panther an example from the not-too-distant past. Vintage must be played like Vintage.

The Cause

The issue is the restricted cards. Generally banned in every other format, these are the most powerful cards ever printed in Magic's history, and they're game-defining. Commander players are used to playing with singletons and some playgroups may even allow Vintage restricted cards up to and including Black Lotus. However, thinking that Commander in any way emulates Vintage is wrong.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sol Ring

This isn't gameplay like (most) players are used to. There are an entirely different set of rules for deck construction, hands to keep, sequencing, and even win conditions. New players have to get used to the fact that Vintage requires them to do things that are not only wrong in normal Magic, but sometimes actively bad. However, they work in Vintage.

I'm no Vintage expert with special insight. Every one of these rules is something I've worked out over the years sticking my toes into Vintage, and they have become clearer since I actually bought in and started playing more often. As I understand them, here are the rules of Vintage in roughly the order I discovered them.

Rule #1: Bazaar of Baghdad Breaks Every Rule

I think my first exposure to Vintage was watching Luis Scott-Vargas videos. His reaction to seeing Bazaar played against him was always, "Whelp, time to lose game 1." That would proceed to happen, and Luis would have to mulligan for graveyard hate in games 2-3. Didn't seem to matter what deck he was playing, that was how it always went.

There is no deck that works quite like a Bazaar deck, for no other deck has a card more central to its gameplan. Bazaar decks don't work at all without the namesake. Their gameplan: mulligan and use Serum Powder until Bazaar is found in their opening hand. Then, activate Bazaar and continue to do so until the opponent is dead. There really aren't alternative lines, as the deck doesn't pay mana for spells.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ichorid

There are many types of Bazaar decks. Some are souped-up Dredge decks, some feature Hollow One engines, and then there are the weird decks. Some have tons of interaction, while others have combo kills. Don't sweat the specifics. These decks are operating on an axis unlike any other in all of Magic, and make their own rules.

Rule #2: The Mana Curve Doesn't Exist

There is no mana curve in Vintage. Decks still play cards of many different mana costs, and the balance is tilted to the low end as in other constructed formats. However, they're not looking to play the cards on curve, and the expectation of doing so is detrimental to success. It's easier to show the reason visually than write it out:

These zero-mana artifacts are collectively known as Jewelry and their job is to jump decks up the curve. They're very good at it, especially when coupled with all the other restricted artifact mana available. It is possible and desirable to try and play as many spells as possible in one turn, or simply dump all the mana into an end-game bomb on turn one. Trying to play a normal game means immediately falling behind.

Every Vintage deck can play any number of these cards and needs very strong reasons not to do so. So strong that the only decks that don't play at least a few Moxen are instead playing Bazaar. (That card makes its own rules.) Everyone else is obligated to sport some Jewelry.

Consequence #1: Aggro Doesn't Exist

In normal Magic, aggro decks work by being faster than anything else. They're utilizing the mana curve to tempo out the slower, more powerful opponents before the high-cost spells overwhelm them and the slower decks win. Against combo, aggro is utilizing its more reliable win speed. That isn't going to happen in a format where Jewels allow slow decks to jump the curve and combo to win on turn 1.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seasoned Dungeoneer

That's not to say that it's impossible to win with creatures. Initiative and Bazaar decks deny that idea. However, these decks are either using creatures as part of a combo kill or heavily incorporating disruptive elements. There are no pure drag-race creature decks. They're all creatures plus something else.

Consequence #2: Life Total Is Just a Number

It's an old principle in Magic that the only life point that really matters is the last one. While I've pushed back on that idea before, the principle is still sound. No format demonstrates it more than Vintage. Thanks to the lack of pure aggro and the overwhelming bombs that get dropped fast, life doesn't really matter, and decks are quite loose in dealing themselves damage. Sometimes a deck will kill itself when things go poorly, but usually they're not bothered. Games are over too quickly. This causes Rule 3.

Rule #3: There Are Three Win Conditions

There are many different ways to win a game in Vintage. However, they will all be via one of three roads:

  1. Combo kill
  2. Lock pieces
  3. Card advantage

The first is the most obvious. When most players think about Vintage, they think the absurd combo decks. They're not wrong; combo is the easiest way to win in Vintage. These are the drag racers of the whole format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bolas's Citadel

That lock pieces are a win condition far less obvious. While I play many creatures and attack with them, White Initiative actually wins by locking out the opponent long enough to win. Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Archon of Emeria, and Phyrexian Censor keep the opponent from doing anything so I can claim victory. Out of the sideboard, there's Null Rod.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Null Rod

The fair decks win the third way, by overwhelming the opponent with card advantage. Ancestral Recall is the poster child of this strategy, which wins by being able to do more than the opponent. This is usually achieved by having more answers in hand than the opponent has spells to deploy, but can take many forms. The game will be over well before any real damage has been dealt.

Rule #4: Artifacts are King

One of the longtime pillars of Vintage is Mishra's Workshop. Almost every deck has lots of artifact mana. Artifacts are everywhere, define every deck by their presence or absence, and are some of the most powerful threats in Vintage. That means:

Consequence #4: All Cheap Artifact Removal Is Playable

Steel Sabotage is main-deckable because it answers anything out of Workshop decks for one mana. It also bounces a Blightsteel Colossus tutored into play by a card advantage deck's Tinker. Every deck needs ways to escape from prison pieces and/or disrupt the opponent's artifacts. Null Rod is a game-winning card for a reason.

Rule #5: Mulligan Aggressively

Bazaar players are an extreme example, but all Vintage players need to be willing to mulligan aggressively. Every deck has something busted it does, so every decks needs to either have the means to do the busted thing in their opening or some way to answer the opponent's busted thing. For example, consider the following hand from my Initiative deck:

This is an almost perfect hand for Legacy Death and Taxes, as it can Thalia turn two and answer any creature turn one. However, this is Vintage, and this hand is a mulligan unless I know I'm against Bazaar. It's unlikely that I'll need to kill a creature at all, much less on turn one, and playing Thalia turn two is too late. By then, the opponent will have dumped their Jewels if I'm on the play or killed me if I'm on the draw. Meanwhile, this hand:

Is a snap-keep in Vintage and quite questionable keep in Legacy. There, the turn 1 Censor is likely to get Lightning Bolted, at which point I'm out almost all my cards and am hoping for a land to cast Dungeoneer and that it isn't just Daze. It's perfect for Vintage since creature removal is very sparse and a turn 1 Censor will stop cold the typical opening for most opponents. It's imperative that Vintage players keep hands that are not necessarily good by normal standards, but that do something broken.

Fairly Busted

Vintage takes some getting used to, and I can't say that it's for everyone. However, those players that are already online and are paying into the card market really have no excuse not to maintain a Vintage deck on the side. It's much cheaper than whatever you've already bought, and unlocks plenty of events, not to mention fun and additional opportunities for success. The key is to that fun and success is to never forget what makes the format Vintage.

Zoom Zoom: Izzet Drakes in Pioneer

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It's All About the Game and How You Play It

In this week's video, I'm playing a brand new take on a longstanding Magic archetype, Izzet Tempo. More specifically Izzet Zoomer Drakes in Pioneer. Why is it called Zoomer Drakes you ask? Well, the Magic "Zoomers" are responsible for this list. As for the Drakes? The main way we win is by attacking with Crackling Drake. Now I'm going to take you though the cards and philosophy behind the deck!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crackling Drake

The Creatures

Crackling Drake is extremely vital to the success of this deck. The fact that it counts the instants and sorceries that are in the graveyard and in exile is important. It ensures that even if we exile most of our graveyard with Treasure Cruise our Crackling Drake will still have a ton of power to attack. More often than not we can get an eight or nine-powered Crackling Drake to be able to close the game in a turn or two. Even if it's a much more modest three or four power it draws a card when it enters the battlefield so it can keep the cards flowing to ensure we don't run out of gas in the middle of the game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crackling Drake

Ledger Shredder has proven itself to be a multi-format powerhouse. It's a main cog in Modern's Izzet Murktide deck. Here it serves a similar purpose. Getting to connive every time we or our opponent play two spells in a turn is powerful. Much like Crackling Drake it ensures we keep the cards flowing and is a great attacker that avoids a ton of removal in the format. It works well in a "Spell Slinger" style deck like this because we can cast our cheap spells all the while the Ledger Shredder draws us more cards and gets bigger each time we do so. Basically, it's the perfect Izzet Tempo Creature in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ledger Shredder

The Spells

The spells are the meat and potatoes of this deck. There's a reason why there are only eight creatures and twenty-seven non-creature spells in the deck. Simply put we rely heavily on the spells to clear the way and protect our creatures.

The Draw Spells

Consider, Opt, and Treasure Cruise are our main ways to dig through our deck. Consider and Opt are excellent ways to trigger Ledger Shredder's connive on the cheap.

Blitz

Blitz of the Thunder-Raptor is a card I had literally never heard of until I saw this deck, but oh boy does it fill an amazing hole in this deck. Think of it as a Pioneer version of Unholy Heat. It clears away any and almost all creatures and can deal with problematic planeswalkers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blitz of the Thunder-Raptor

The Rest of Our Removal

In addition to Blitz, Fiery Impulse, Fires of Victory, and Spikefield Hazard // Spikefield Cave are the rest of our removal. Keep in mind Fires of Victory can be kicked to draw a card if we start to flood. Additionally, it is our second-best way to deal with large creatures and planeswalkers.

Fading Hope is here to deal with problematic cards such as blockers with flying and reach as well as Sheoldrerd, the Apocolypse.

About Fable

Lastly, we have the best red card in the whole format Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki. This card is paramount in this deck. It does almost everything we want to do. It makes a creature, it draws cards while also filling our graveyard, and it flips into a creature that if left unchecked lets us copy our threats. Let me tell you if we get to copy a Crackling Drake we are living the dream, and it comes up more than you'd imagine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

The Decklist

Izzet Zoomer Drakes, Pioneer

Creatures

4 Ledger Shredder
4 Crackling Drake

Sorceries

2 Strangle
4 Treasure Cruise

Instants

3 Blitz of the Thunder-Raptor
4 Consider
1 Fading Hope
4 Fiery Impulse
1 Fires of Victory
4 Opt
4 Spell Pierce
2 Spikefield Hazard // Spikefield Cave

Enchantments

4 Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

Lands

2 Hall of Storm Giants
2 Island
1 Otawara, Soaring City
4 Riverglide Pathway // Lavaglide Pathway
4 Spirebluff Canal
4 Steam Vents
2 Stormcarved Coast

Sideboard

2 Abrade
2 Aether Gust
2 Alpine Moon
2 Brotherhood's End
2 Disdainful Stroke
3 Mazemind Tome
2 Mystical Dispute

Wrapping It Up

If you're looking to play a spell-slinger-style deck that can be blistering fast and also play the long game you will definitely want to try Izzet Zoomer Drakes. It has play against any top-tier deck in Pioneer. Now that you've read the article go watch the companion video on YouTube and don't forget to Like, Comment, and Subscribe!

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LessAlex

LessAlex, AKA Alex Blackard, is a Magic: The Gathering content creator who is passionate about playing Control decks in Constructed, particularly in the Pioneer, Modern, Explorer, and Historic formats. He also enjoys experimenting with combo decks and brewing up new and exciting strategies to stay ahead of the competition. With a focus on in-depth strategy breakdowns and gameplay, LessAlex offers a unique perspective on the game that is both entertaining and informative. His competitive resume includes a Top 4 at an SCG Open in 2014, splitting an NRG Trial in 2017, as well as countless SCG IQ Top 8s and Game Day wins. He hosts The Control Freak Podcast where he discusses playing Control decks in Constructed, and brings on guests including prominent players and creators to share their expertise. You can catch him streaming on Twitch weekdays at 9 am, and on his YouTube Channel for even more content.

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Tales of Middle Earth Draft Booster Box Prices

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After much-anticipated hype, The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth has officially launched across the globe. At last, players can sleeve up their favorite characters from the trilogy and do battle. Despite not being Standard legal, the launch feels like a “normal” release because the set is available in draft boosters, set boosters, collector boosters, bundles, etc. The set is also available to draft on Arena.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Frodo Baggins

With all this hype, I decided to swing by my local game store (LGS) to pick up a booster box of draft boosters to sit on for a bit. I figured it was a novel set with a strong tie to a world-renowned property, so it was bound to be a success.

Limited streamers with early access have already been sharing their enjoyment of the format, leaving me optimistic for another great draft set. A few commented that the set is a little powered down, much like your typical summer Core Set, but that doesn’t mean the set won’t be fun to draft. I was in.

Not Your Average Box

I arrived at the shop and asked how much the draft booster box of the new Lord of the Rings set cost. I was expecting the box to be marked up a little bit because I was purchasing from a small business, a brick-and-mortar store with overhead costs and all that. I was happy to support the shop, so I braced myself for something in the $120 range.

The answer made me do a double-take: $159.99. What?! For a core set?!

I kept my cool in the shop and pulled out my phone, checking TCGplayer to see just how much of a market my buddy at the LGS was charging me. Boy was I surprised!

He wasn’t up charging me a cent! In fact, his price was lower than what I could find on TCGplayer (box prices may have drifted a little lower since). The shop owner wasn’t padding his margins—instead, he was giving me a discount!

Why are boxes of this set—a set that my favorite Limited podcasts describe as akin to a “core set”—cost more than your typical Standard booster box?

A Straight-to-Modern Set

The piece I missed when I first read about this set was how Wizards of the Coast was treating its format legality. I knew the set wasn’t Standard legal, but beyond that, I wasn’t fully aware of how the set was being managed. According to my research, “While the set isn’t focused on Modern as a Modern Horizons set might be, R&D wanted to allow as many players to play with these cards and enjoy them.”

OK… Wizards of the Coast wants more players to enjoy these cards, so how does leaving them out of Standard enable that? This is perplexing to say the least, especially given the fact that these cards seem underpowered relative to other straight-to-Modern sets, such as Modern Horizons.

As such, it is my understanding that distributor pricing is in-line with sets like Modern Horizons and not like Core Set 2021, for example. A higher price at the distributor means game shops have to pay more for the product; a premium that they pass, in turn, to customers.

I did a Google search but couldn’t find any definitive source for the distributor prices of Tales of Middle Earth draft booster box prices. The only data point I found was mentioned by somebody on Reddit claiming the distributor box pricing is $200 CAD or about $150 in U.S. Dollars. A second commenter chimed in by stating that a $150 price point likely implies $110-$120 for “real” prices.

I don’t understand this rhetoric around “real” prices, but this Reddit contributor's number is plausible. If local game stores are paying upwards of $110-$120 for booster boxes, it seems reasonable they would charge between $150 and $160, at least at release.

Concerning Prospects

Draft booster boxes of previous straight-to-Modern sets have held up considerably well price-wise. Booster boxes of the first Modern Horizons sell for around $220 on TCGplayer, and the newer Modern Horizons 2 boxes sell in the $180 range. Granted, a year ago these were selling for around $210, but in the grand scheme these haven’t completely collapsed and I suspect the price is going to stabilize in this range rather than dip even lower.

The issue with comparing Modern Horizons boxes to Tales of Middle Earth boxes is, of course, the delta in power level. Modern Horizons cards were designed to influence and shape Modern. I don’t think Tales of Middle Earth cards are destined to shake up Modern too much—the cards themselves are simply not powerful enough.

Orcish Bowmasters is rumored to be the exception, which is why it remains one of the most valuable cards in the set. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll maintain its current $20 price tag. Modern is a supercharged format, So a card must be quite potent to have any influence on the metagame. I'm not convinced Orcish Bowmasters can get there.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Orcish Bowmasters

One may point out that the set will be more desirable to the Commander audience, especially those casual players who enjoy the overlap of Magic and Lord of the Rings lore. I concede this point. However, Commander is a format of 1-ofs… it will take much longer for Commander demand to absorb supply and increase prices.

The Battle of Commander Sets

In terms of Commander-oriented sets, we already had a set release once before that was Commander themed: Battle for Baldur’s Gate. Sealed booster boxes of that set have held up poorly, to put it mildly.

This operating zone—a set of cards not legal in Standard but not powerful enough for eternal formats—is quite the awkward one. I guess the business plan is to lean heavily on the intellectual property associated with the set to sell product.

In the case of the Dungeons and Dragons crossover, the plan didn’t meet expectations as evidenced by the dirt-cheap booster box prices. Is the Lord of the Rings franchise enough to overcome a weaker set with fewer playing outlets?

The Fanbase: A Magnitude of Difference

There are some noteworthy differences between Lord of the Rings and Dungeons and Dragons. While I have no hard data here, a quick Google search can provide some order of magnitude differences in the fanbase.

According to a 2020 Forbes piece, Wizards of the Coast claims that over 50 million people have played Dungeons and Dragons. Meanwhile, one article suggests that 500-750 million people have watched the Lord of the Rings movie, with around 150 million people having read the books. I can’t confirm or deny these numbers, but in my opinion, these numbers when compared to each other make some sense. I fully expected Lord of the Rings to be more mainstream than Dungeons and Dragons and the data supports this hypothesis.

Does that mean we’ll see greater sales numbers for the Tales of Middle Earth set than we saw for the Battle for Baldur’s Gate set? To an extent, I’d say this is likely, though I can’t quantify the degree to which we’ll see the difference.

License To Reprint

The other factor that could buoy Tales of Middle Earth box prices is the licensing situation. While Wizards of the Coast owns both Magic and Dungeons and Dragons, they don’t own the intellectual property associated with The Lord of the Rings. Those rights belong to Middle Earth Enterprises, a subsidiary of Embracer Group.

Why does this matter? Well, when Wizards of the Coast wants to print more Dungeons and Dragons-themed Magic cards, they can design the cards, fire up the printing presses, and go to town as much as they’d like. If they want to print (or reprint) any Tales of Middle Earth cards, however, they’ll need licenses and permission from the owners of the intellectual property. There is no guarantee that will be desirable (or profitable), so reprints of this set may or may not ever occur.

Some of my friends theorize that this is why cards from Tales of Middle Earth were underpowered—there was a concern that they’d print a card that heavily impacted Modern, would soar in price, and then become prohibitive as Wizards of the Coast struggled to obtain a license to reprint the card. It was safest to keep cards slightly underpowered to avoid this situation.

Longterm Prospects of LOTR

No reprints could bode well for long-term booster box prices if enough fans of the franchise buy product. It seems this is the business strategy that Wizards of the Coast is banking on—if association with Lord of the Rings is enough to drive purchase, then this set can be a screaming success. If it is successful, then box prices can remain elevated. Years from now, without a reprint, Lord of the Rings fans may wish to come back to Middle Earth to enjoy reliving the experience of drafting this set.

On the other hand, if the cards are too underpowered and there’s no demand for these singles in constructed play, what will the expected value be for a draft booster box of this set? In a word, abysmal. Will people still open product if they can’t crack more than $50 worth of singles? Some might, but many won’t.

Thus, we have an interesting tug-of-war between two market factors that will be fascinating to watch as it plays out. I honestly don’t know which direction things will go. My gut says that in the short term, prices will fall rapidly. I am confident booster boxes will be less expensive sometime between now and the end of the year. What I’m less confident in, however, is what the price of these boxes will be three years from now.

Wrapping It Up

I’m hopeful that my box can climb in price, but also nervous after seeing the failure of Battle for Baldur’s Gate. At least Tales of Middle Earth is Modern-legal, unlike Battle for Baldur's Gate, though I'm not sure if the set is powerful enough for that to matter. Perhaps the Lord of the Rings fanbase is larger and will be more passionate about this set, driving sales of the product higher than anticipated. Only time will tell.

The Secret to Drafting Jeskai Tempo in Tales of Middle Earth

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It's hard not to compare Lord of the Rings: Tales in Middle Earth (LTR) to the format that preceded it, March of the Machine (MOM). From a complexity level, LTR resembles a core set. Synergies are important, and clearly guided by signpost uncommons. The power level is a nowhere near as high. While some commons do stand out, specifically Errand-Runner of Gondor, we want to make sure we're supporting them by adhering closely to the format's archetypes.

In my preview guide, I discussed my thoughts on the Jeskai tempo decks in the format. With the help of my old friend, confirmation bias, I leaned towards those archetypes to navigate this brand-new playing field. During the early-access event I was able to have a lot of success by playing the wedge's aggressive decks, especially in red.

But before plunging into that topic, I want to discuss one of the major differences between LTR and MOM.

Synergy Is Everything

The best decks in MOM got a big boost from rares. It was often worth splashing powerful bombs, even if they didn't perfectly meld with a deck's theme.

Additionally, redundant keywords work together well. For example, in War of the Spark (WAR), amass was often used to create tokens to sacrifice. Here, amass plays well with... more amass. We want our army tokens to be huge, not just measly bodies. Tempt plays well with more tempt, which is a little more intuitive.

Because of this, there is more incentive to get into the open colors, rather than to hold onto a first-pick bomb.

Hoards of lords

Early on, this format feels like it's about the uncommons. These cards enhance the effectiveness of many of our commons... though some commons can have a similar effect.

High-synergy commons

Much like in the novelized battles of Middle-Earth, the legends have a profound impact on those surrounding them. Because these cards can boost multiple archetypes, Great Hall of the Citadel becomes an interesting option to enable splashes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Great Hall of the Citadel

Overlapping archetypes might make Old Man Willow a potent splash in a BW or GW deck. This nonbasic land splashes legends better than off-color basics. It can meet all of our off-color mana requirements while still creating a better mana base to cast on-color legends. In the early weeks, it will go much later than it should.

UR Spells

Similar to the UR Spells deck in Dominaria United (DMU), this Izzet deck focuses on tempo and aggression. The most synergistic versions of the deck play like a burn deck, but it can skew towards a more traditional aggressive deck.

UR Spells (7-0)

Creatures

2 Rohirrim Lancer
3 Erebor Flamesmith
1 Bilbo, Retired Burglar
1 Ithilien Kingfisher
1 Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold
1 Gimli, Counter of Kills
1 Meneldor, Swift Savior
1 Relentless Rohirrim
1 Oliphaunt

Instants

2 Improvised Club
1 Smite the Deathless
2 Soothing of Sméagol
1 Dreadful as the Storm

Sorceries

1 Birthday Escape
2 Rally at the Hornburg
1 Quarrel's End
1 Fire of Orthanc

Enchantments

1 Fiery Inscription

Lands

8 Island
8 Mountain

The four-mana legends were underperformers in the deck. Though each is powerful, they lack synergy with the rest of the deck. They generally weren't fast enough to help with our central gameplan. Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold was an exception. This card is bonkers with Rally at the Hornburg, and it swung games completely.

Rally thrives in this deck. It's an aggressive two mana spell, playing well with Erebor Flamesmith and Improvised Club, both of which out-performed expectations. This trio of red cards make for the cornerstone of a very aggressive color.

The powerful build-arounds incentivize a more spell-based approach. If we see those cards, they're worth taking a flyer on. Seven or so triggers are enough for Erebor Flamesmith, but Fiery Inscription is a furnace that must be fed.

UR Synergy (7-0)

Creatures

3 Erebor Flamesmith
1 Grey Havens Navigator
1 Gandalf the Grey

Instants

1 Hithlain Knots
1 Soothing of Sméagol
1 Isolation of Orthanc
1 Press the Enemy

Sorceries

1 Fear, Fire, Foes!
1 Rally at the Hornburg
2 Gandalf's Sanctions
2 Quarrel's End
3 Swarming of Moria
2 Treason of Isengard
1 Surrounded by Orcs
1 LĂłrien Revealed

Enchantments

2 Fiery Inscription

Lands

8 Island
8 Mountain

To be frank, I feel like I peaked before the format's release.

Double Fiery Inscription, triple Erebor Flamesmith, double Gandalf's Sanction, and Gandalf the Grey himself headline this five-creature opus.

This deck was all synergy. Middling cards like Swarming of Moria, Quarrel's End, and Treason of Isengard were often burn spells in addition to their stated value. Building around build-arounds means always building towards something. The UR build-arounds are definitely worth the commitment.

RW Humans

This is the other Rally of the Hornburg deck, a card that might be both the set's Gust Walker and most valuable glue card. The two haste bodies are generally good, but the fact that they can each carry DĂşnedain Blade makes RW a threat at common.

RW Humans 6-3

Creatures

1 Esquire of the King
2 Rohirrim Lancer
2 East-Mark Cavalier
1 Shire Shirriff
1 Errand-Rider of Gondor
1 Grishnákh, Brash Instigator
1 Éowyn, Lady of Rohan
3 Protector of Gondor
1 Relentless Rohirrim
1 Éomer, Marshal of Rohan
1 Eagles of the North

Instants

1 Improvised Club
2 Smite the Deathless

Sorceries

1 Rally at the Hornburg
1 Swarming of Moria
1 Now for Wrath, Now for Ruin!

Artifacts

3 DĂşnedain Blade

Lands

8 Plains
8 Mountain

Rohirrim Lancer made for a decent stand-in, but what this deck wanted was more Rally of the Hornburg. Efficient creatures get a ton of value out of the cheap equip cost on DĂşnedain Blade, and this trio pressures well early and into the mid-game. Protectors of Gondor provides redundancy once we're going in this direction.

Improvised Club may be the Price of Loyalty of this set. It's the secret sauce to the format's aggressive decks, and this is probably its best home. This deck makes a lot of bodies and some of them end up chump attacking. Club is a versatile tool that provides needed reach to the RW decks.

Through the power of Microsoft Paint, I've outlined a synergy triangle between the red commons of RU and RW. Rally the Hornburg is a cornerstone of both decks.

UW Draw Two Aggro

This was the deck I was most excited about. However, it doesn't have access to the aggressive starts of the red decks. I anticipated The Ring to be active enough in this archetype to fuel the "draw two" payoffs while applying aggressive pressure.

White and blue are a little more midrange than I predicted. Turning on The Ring is not trivial, and the format has a lot of one-power blockers. In my first draft of the format, I first-picked an Prince Imrahil the Fair and aimed at the UW aggro deck I expected to dominate the format.

Blue Streak

In my draft, I prioritized power level where I was supposed to prioritize cheap tempt triggers. Slip on the Ring and Birthday Escape may have played better than Saruman the White and Boromir, Warden of the Tower. Those cards would have empowered my swarm of middling cheap creatures and enabled more aggressive gameplay.

UW Tempo (3-3)

Creatures

2 Bill Ferny, Bree Swindler
1 Nimble Hobbit
1 Nimrodel Watcher
1 Prince Imrahil the Fair
1 Took Reaper
1 Boromir, Warden of the Tower
1 Elrond, Lord of Rivendell
3 Errand-Rider of Gondor
1 Protector of Gondor
1 Stalwarts of Osgiliath
1 Willow-Wind
1 Eagles of the North

Instants

2 Stern Scolding
1 Hithlain Knots
1 Soothing of Sméagol
1 Isolation at Orthanc

Sorceries

1 Birthday Escape
1 Now for Wrath, Now for Ruin!
1 Banish from Edoras

Artifacts

1 Lembas

Lands

8 Plains
8 Island

This deck was great when it drew Prince Imrahil the Fair and Errand-Rider of Gondor, but pretty bad when it didn't draw either. The two-drops aren't given enough support and the five-drops aren't positioned to synergize with them. Errand-Rider of Gondor cures a lot of ills though. I think this deck is supposed to be built to set up an active Ring-bearer and generate value with it through the mid-game.

Building a Better UW

The better UW decks are going to play a slower game. Blue has tons of card draw, and reasonable support for it in Pelargir Survivor.

Bigger UW (7-2)

Creatures

1 Goldberry, River-Daughter
1 Pelargir Survivor
1 Pippin, Guard of the Citadel
1 Took Reaper
1 Captain of Umbar
3 Errand-Rider of Gondor
1 Ioreth of the Healing House
1 Rosie Cotton of South Lane
1 Gandalf, Friend of the Shire
1 Knights of Dol Amroth
1 Meneldor, Swift Savior
1 Stalwarts of Osgiliath

Instants

1 Deceive the Messenger
1 Glorious Gale
1 Lost to Legend
1 Slip on the Ring
1 Soothing of Sméagol
1 Isolation at Orthanc

Sorceries

1 Birthday Escape
1 Arwen's Gift
1 Banish from Edoras

Lands

8 Plains
8 Island

This deck more closely aligns with what the blue commons are trying to achieve. It tempts better. It plays more individually powerful cards and leans into the ample card advantage blue offers. Because the format feels very sorcery-heavy, cards like Slip on the Ring, Deceive the Messenger, and Gandalf, Friend of the Shire are all easier to use. The Melendor, Swift Savior and Errand Rider of Gondor combo is very real as well.

For the Shire!

So far, the format has been a blast. Despite boasting a lower power level, it has felt very skill-intensive, and sequencing is extremely important. My prediction was that Jeskai would be the tempo wedge, but ultimately I think the red decks are where aggression lives. BR has felt really powerful and might be the best deck in the format. Still, it's very early. So let me know what you think of the format in the comments! Until next week... I'll be drafting.

Did Middle-Earth Break Legacy in Baltimore?

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This weekend, I was fortunate enough to attend SCGCon Baltimore and play 21 rounds of Legacy. I’ve been very focused on Pioneer lately for Organized Play and this weekend was a wonderful break. A lot of my opponents expressed being in similar boats.

The new Lord of the Rings cards had a significant impact on the format, including prime suspect Orcish Bowmasters. Today, we'll take a look at some of the more interesting developments from this weekend and assess how the format could shift to accommodate them going forward.

Mini-Report

Round after round, all but one of my opponents were all smiles and fun. I went a total of 14-5-2 over the weekend. While my results were nothing special, I did manage to at least win my money back, and had a great time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Depths

As expected, I ended up playing the Naya Depths list I shared in my previous article. The list treated me well as usual. I took an unexpected loss to Grixis Delver and a less surprising loss to Mono-Black Storm. My other three losses on the weekend were to various combo decks featuring blue, which tend to be my worst matchups. If the metagame continues to develop how I'm expecting, I think Depths will continue to be a strong choice. This works out great for me, so hopefully I'm right.

Baltimore Meta

Baltimore was a notable event because it was our first look at how the new Tales of Middle-Earth cards might perform in Legacy.

RW Initiative

I want to start by highlighting Forth Eorlingas!. Quinn Tonole slotted this card in to Boros Initiative and cruised his way to a Top 8 finish.

Boros Initiative, Quinn Tonole

Creatures (23)

4 Anointed Peacekeeper
4 Archon of Emeria
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Caves of Chaos Adventurer
4 Seasoned Dungeoneer
3 Solitude

Artifacts (12)

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal

Enchantments (5)

3 Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki
2 Touch the Spirit Realm

Sorceries (3)

3 Forth Eorlingas!

Lands (17)

4 Ancient Tomb
4 Cavern of Souls
4 City of Traitors
1 Mountain
2 Plains
1 Plateau
1 Karakas

Sideboard (15)

4 Swords to Plowshares
3 Faerie Macabre
3 Containment Priest
2 Loran of the Third Path
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Solitude

Forth seems really strong here. The Initiative deck is full of fast mana sources, but if the game goes long, the deck can't make good use of all of its sol lands and mana rocks. Forth gives the deck the late-game mana sink it so desperately wanted. It can also be a very punishing early play. If people aren't prepared to block early, adding the Monarch to the game can be a very potent strategy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anointed Peacekeeper

I'm not actually sure how much to expect to see of this deck moving forward. This was one of the best-performing popular decks on Saturday, but a lot of that had to do with Quinn. On Sunday, the deck performed abysmally. I do know a couple of the pilots were not super familiar with the format which probably depressed the win rate some. Regardless of how the deck does in the future, if you play against it, make sure to be mindful of surprise hasty attackers.

RB Painter

Last week I said people should respect this deck going into the weekend, but I didn't realize just how right I was going to be. RB Painter had an absurd win rate on Saturday, putting only a single copy into Top 8 but two more in Top 16. If you include Mono-Red and RW builds, the numbers get worse but remain strong.

RB Painter, Kenton Najdzein

Creatures (20)

4 Goblin Welder
4 Goblin Engineer
3 Orcish Bowmasters
4 Painter's Servant
1 Phyrexian Dragon Engine
1 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Fury
1 Chaos Defiler

Artifact (7)

3 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Opal
2 Grindstone
1 Nihil Spellbomb

Enchantments (4)

4 Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

Instants (8)

2 Lightning Bolt
4 Pyroblast
2 Red Elemental Blast

Lands (21)

4 Ancient Tomb
1 Arid Mesa
2 Badlands
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 City of Traitors
3 Great Furnace
4 Mountain
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Urza's Saga

Sideboard (15)

1 Chaos Defiler
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
2 Mindbreak Trap
3 Surgical Extraction
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Fury
1 Pithing Needle
1 Canoptek Scarab Swarm
1 Opposition Agent
2 Sheoldred's Edict

The black splash is small, but potent. Despite being a one-of, I think Chaos Defiler is actually the bigger of the two pickups. Defiler isn't new but unfortunately hasn't made its way on to Magic: Online yet. The most notable thing about this card is that it doesn't target. When combined with Goblin Welder, this card will quickly mow down any and all opposing nonland permanents. It was very impressive every time I saw it. Orcish Bowmasters easily slotting in also added some power to this deck.

Cephalid Breakfast

Four years ago, if you told somebody that Cephalid Breakfast won a major tournament, they probably would have laughed at you. This deck is no joke though. Brian Coval used it to take down the 10K main event.

Cephalid Breakfast, Brian Coval

Creatures (12)

3 Nomads en-Kor
1 Brazen Borrower // Petty Theft
4 Cephalid Illusionist
3 Narcomoeba
1 Thassa's Oracle

Artifacts (7)

1 Retrofitter Foundry
2 Shuko
4 Staff of the Storyteller

Sorceries (8)

1 Cabal Therapy
4 Ponder
1 Dread Return
2 Step Through

Instants (10)

4 Brainstorm
2 Orim's Chant
4 Force of WIll

Lands (21)

4 Flooded Strand
2 Island
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Mystic Sanctuary
1 Plains
1 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Tundra
1 Underground Sea
3 Urza's Saga

In addition to winning the event on Saturday, the deck put up another Top 8 on Sunday in the hands of Paul Lynch. This was the most popular deck between days and still managed an impressive win rate. Often, as decks get more popular, their performance starts to move closer to average. This was clearly a good choice for the weekend. Being able to back up such a compact combo package with Force of Will means the deck will likely always be reasonable at worst.

Delver aka The Fun Police

For as long as I can remember, Delver has always been one of if not the best deck in the format. For years now, Izzet has been the most prominent flavor. Ever since the Expressive Iteration ban, people have been unsure of what to do with the deck though. This was very evident this weekend. UR remained the most popular choice but had a pretty poor showing.

Three-color Delver seems to be the way of the future. Temur and Grixis both performed better than Izzet builds. The green splash was most notably for copies of Tarmogoyf, a card I think is underwhelming in the format. Black allowed the deck to add removal in Snuff Out and to also try running its own copies of Orcish Bowmasters. This was the best-preforming Delver variant.

It's an Orc's World Now

There was an error retrieving a chart for Orcish Bowmasters

Often when we talk about cards we expect to show up in main decks, we ask what it's doing for a deck. With this particular card, I think it's better to talk about how it attacks other decks. This approach is really unusual for a main deck card, but this is a weird one. It really does hit a lot of the metagame. I'm still not convinced it's going to warp the format as much as some say, but let's explore anyways.

Effect on Breakfast

Bowmasters will see a lot of play over the next few weeks while we figure out its true power. So regardless of how good the card ultimately ends up being, it is liable to have a pretty big impact on the immediate future. Let's look at how this card lines up against our favorite Cephalids. Every creature in the Breakfast deck has one toughness. The fact that Bowmasters doubles as removal against every creature in the deck is likely to be a problem. It might encourage some players to return to Stoneforge Mystic, but it might also just chase people away from the deck. Worth noting: Bowmasters itself is also a potential option for some of the flex slots.

Effect on Delver

Delver is another deck that seems weak on the surface to the Orc. Delver is known for casting small creatures and lots of cantrips. This is far from ideal against the Orc. All weekend I heard victory/horror stories of people casting a Brainstorm that ended up killing their own Dragon's Rage Channeler. Delver players should be able to adjust their play patterns to not get blown out by the Orc, but it will likely take some practice. As mentioned above, the card can also slot into this deck and might be the future of the archetype.

Effect on 8 Cast

8 Cast is another deck I expected to show up in force at Baltimore. It was very popular but didn't have a great showing. A lot of things go into a deck having a good or bad weekend but I bet some of it had to do with our new Orc.

8 Cast draws a lot of cards. That's sort of the deck's whole shtick. It also doesn't play any main deck removal. It's pretty easy for a Bowmasters to pick off an Emry or Thought Monitor to help contain the board, and then just sit there making life difficult. It's also hard for 8 Cast to develop without letting their opponent generate a huge army token. It may be enough to make 8 Cast consider main decking copies of Dismember or Brazen Borrower // Petty Theft.

Effect on Elves

Against the Glimpse of Nature builds of Elves, it basically shuts down the deck's engine. The deck is almost exclusively X/1s. While Glimpse would still allow for additional draws, it wouldn't be able to build its board. Elvish Visionary and Wirewood goes from strong engine to non-existent real fast.

Effect on Miscellaneous Other Decks

Against any blue-based cantrip deck, the card can only be so bad. The card doesn't actually apply that much pressure, but becomes oppressive when it can gun something down. Even killing off a Staff of the Storyteller Spirit token or Snapcaster Mage can be enough. Most non-blue decks have some amount of targets: Goblin Welder, Dryad Arbor, Baleful Strix, and Ice-Fang Coatl are all creatures I expect to see falling to Bowmasters a lot over the next few weeks.

Delighted Halfling

This card was one of the first we saw from the set and it's pretty strong. The 5C Zenith decks in Legacy they seem like a natural home for this card. The deck already incidentally plays a lot of legendary permanents. Getting to ramp into these haymakers AND make them uncounterable is really strong. It means knowing your turn two Grist, the Hunger Tide or Leovold, Emmisary of Trest will resolve on turn two.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Delighted Halfling

If we really want to up the ante though, on turn three you can fore through an Omnath, Locus of Creation or Minsc & Boo, Timeless Heros. Outside of Zenith, I could also see Halfling contributing to the foundation of a Legacy version of the Modern Yawgmoth, Thran Physician deck. And perhaps most promising is slotting it into the very fringe Planeswalker Stompy deck we see from time to time. It is worth noting, though: that deck normally plays Chalice of the Void, and I'm not sure which is better for the archetype or whether both cards can coexist in one shell.

Taking a Bow

Are there other cards you're excited for in Legacy? I'd love to hear about your ideas, so feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the Quiet Speculation discord. Next week, we'll cover Modern's adoption of Lord of the Rings. I have a lot of ideas I want to work on and I'm sure we'll see a bunch of neat stuff in the MTGO Challenges. Until then!

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Michael Mapson

Mapson is a constructed specialist and Level 2 judge. While he has a strong preference for Modern and Legacy, he is happy to play any form of Magic. He enjoys most decks, but can most often be found playing various land-based strategies such as Amulet Titan, Scapeshift or Naya Depths. His most notable finishes include a Modern Grand Prix Finals appearance, a team SCG Open top 4, and some 5k wins. You can also catch his thoughts each week on the Dark Depths Podcast where he and his cohost, Billy Mitchell, talk about Modern and Legacy.

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Pioneer Summer: Lessons Learned in RCQ Testing

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Testing is necessary for success in competitive Magic. It is also very hard and frequently boring. As a result, most players go to events underprepared. This has definitely been the case for me attending Pioneer RCQ's this past year. I don't like Pioneer to begin with, so testing has felt like a chore. The Magic Online All-Access pass a few weeks ago gave me the opportunity to do a lot of testing relatively quickly and painlessly, so I took advantage. Here's what I learned.

Rakdos Rocks By Default

Remember about a month ago, where I claimed that Rakdos Rock was the top deck in Pioneer thanks to being the least bad deck? I played it myself and against it frequently over the All-Access event and had everything I said about that deck reinforced. The deck is so... aggressively medium in a field of feast or famine decks that it works. I still wouldn't call it good, but at least it doesn't have as many feels-bad moments as other decks.

Rakdos never felt completely overmatched against any deck, even when very behind or badly positioned. Thoughtseize answers everything after all, so there was always the chance to steal games by destroying opponent's hand. Fable of the Mirror-Breaker //Reflection of Kiki-Jiki is a very strong way to come from behind. Sheoldred the Apocalypse is often backbreaking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

The flip side to that is that Rakdos also never got me any free wins. With a lot of decks I played, there were matchups that felt unlosable (assuming your deck didn't crap itself) to compensate for near-unwinnable bad matchups. Rakdos had to work for every win, and I'd guess my opponents did too. It was possible to snowball games, but I had to carefully set up to make it happen.

Midrange Alternatives

While my serious testing was focused on two decks, I tried out a vast swath of decks. Part of that was simple curiosity, maybe a deck outside my usual preference would interest me. A lot of it was to better understand how the metagame works and how to fight against it. It's also good to try alternatives to established doctrine.

Annoyingly, there doesn't seem to be a viable alternative midrange deck to Rakdos. Every other deck I tried just felt anemic or inconsistent compared to BR. Trying to go a different direction but maintain the pace of midrange only led to more frustration and a lingering question of why I was bothering to even try. This was especially true of Abzan Greasefang, but I'll discuss that deck separately.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

All the best midrange answers and threats are black or red. Trying to move away from either of those colors means involving worse midrange cards. This in turn translates to approaching either control or aggro. The deck stops being particularly midrange-y and instead becomes a bad control deck or bad aggro deck. I know that accusation gets thrown at midrange a lot, but it's true. Pioneer's midrange deck is Rakdos. End of story.

Annoying Abzan

I have open contempt for Abzan Greasefang. I've been open about this since I started writing about Pioneer. I understand the appeal it used to have, but the deck doesn't even try for that anymore. The ideal plan used to be cast Stitcher's Supplier turn 1, flip Greasefang, Okiba Boss and Parhelion II, and then cast Can't Stay Away on Greasefang to reanimate Parhelion and functionally end the game turn 2. However, Greasefang has cut Supplier to go more midrange.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greasefang, Okiba Boss

Greasefang players have cut the Suppliers and some other milling creatures for Vessel of Nascency and interaction. The plan has morphed from turbo-ing Parhelion to casting Esika's Chariot. They've made this change because Abzan decks of old would durdle around milling themselves without actually finding the combo. Now the milling is more for value.

The Problem

This isn't a bad plan. Chariot is a rather absurd card and is the tentpole card of Gruul Vehicles. The issue is that Greasefang has been and still is a very inconsistent deck. Even with the move towards midrange, it's still filled with air, because it hasn't given up entirely on early Greasefang and Parhelion. Since I first encountered it, I found the deck infuriating for its inconsistency, and nothing has been done to fix that flaw.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Esika's Chariot

As things stand, Greasefang is a deck of compromises. When things go its way it appears very strong. All the discard it plays does wonders for opening the way for vehicle attacks. However, if it stumbles, it still just durdles around and dies. Gruul Vehicles is a worse deck by the numbers, but at least it always does something. Abzan needs to fix its identity crisis. I never won playing the deck and never lost to it during testing.

Missing Devotion

On that note, I didn't encounter Green Devotion at all during the two weeks of All-Access. Given the stats from MTGGoldfish, it should have been relatively common. I was a little disappointed as I was playing decks with allegedly good Devotion matchups primarily, but it is a little perplexing. Were it not for the stats, I'd assume online players abandoned the deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

It wouldn't have surprised me if players had abandoned Devotion online. After all the hype last year, it never had a very disappointing season. It's also a very complex deck to combo with online thanks to all the clicking, and decks like that tend to be unpopular in that setting. The fact that the deck can just play the beatdown game gave it legs, but that usually isn't enough. I'm genuinely curious about what's up with the deck.

Oh, the Humanity

I went into this testing session thinking that I'd be perfecting my Mono-White Humans list. At most of the RCQs I've been to it's felt like the best performing aggro deck, and again that's backed up by the overall stats. I was committed to the deck, only to have it completely fall apart on me during testing. Some of that was purely thanks to good old Matchup Roulette, but there were problems with the list I was using.

Ongoing Development

I don't keep close tabs on deck development for Pioneer. I don't play Pioneer that often (see my earlier frustration) and even when I do, it's not against the top tier decks. Most of the Pioneer players in my area have pet decks and don't change often. So, I don't need to innovate my decks and fall behind the curve. When All-Access came about and I decided to extensively test Humans, I just netdecked.

Humans, Test Deck

Creatures

3 Dauntless Bodyguard
4 Hopeful Initiate
1 Kytheon, Hero of Akros // Gideon, Battle-Forged
4 Recruitment Officer
4 Coppercoat Vanguard
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Luminarch Aspirant
4 Adeline, Resplendent Cathar
4 Brutal Cathar // Moonrage Brute

Enchantments

4 Ossification

Lands

2 Castle Ardenvale
2 Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire
4 Mutavault
14 Plains

Sideboard

4 Portable Hole
3 Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array
2 Rest in Peace
2 March of Otherworldly Light
4 Wedding Announcement // Wedding Festivity

As I suspected they would, Humans had dropped Brave the Elements for Ossification. Coppercoat Vanguard was immediately and fully adopted, pushing out Luminarch Aspirant. I was also pleased to see Shefet Dunes leave. That card never did what I wanted it to do. I spent about a week on this deck before giving up.

I would advise against running Invasion of Gobakhan in Humans. As a go-wide aggro deck, it's not advantageous to take a turn off of damage to flip the battle. The information gained is of limited value most of the time. This is a deck for putting one's head down and just going for it. Invasion is also awkward with Thalia, Guardian of Thraben.

Test and Evaluate

It wasn't that I wasn't winning enough, it's that the wins all felt really close, while my losses were blowouts. I consistently felt like I was taking advantage of my opponents' stumbles, but they were winning on their decks' merits. That seemed like too poor of a place to be so I moved on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coppercoat Vanguard

The problem wasn't the deck's construction. There were times I wanted Brave, but those were balanced by times Ossification was the only way to win. One card wasn't better than the other in the matchups I faced, it was just a metagame call trade-off. Vanguard isn't a better card than Aspirant as it isn't a threat on its own, but it is more aggressive, which plays better in the deck. The deck felt fine and no change to the sideboard or maindeck made any difference.

The deck seems to be in a transition period. Since All-Access ended, I've seen a lot of decks running both Brave and Ossification, while some have dropped them entirely for grindy creatures. There's been some shifting in the maindeck removal packages of many decks, and Humans is trying to adapt. The evidence suggests that it hasn't been optimized yet.

The Spirits of Pioneer

This led me back to my old standby, Spirits. I'd given up on Mono-Blue Spirits for Humans after Angels started dominating the skies. Though Angels has fallen off, what with removal changes rendering Ascendant Spirit a liability and the UW Control match remained pretty poor in general. Switching back to UW Spirits was the answer.

UW Spirits, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Spectral Sailor
4 Rattlechains
4 Shacklegeist
4 Supreme Phantom
4 Spell Queller

Instants

3 Lofty Denial
4 Geistlight Snare

Battles

3 Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array

Enchantments

4 Curious Obsession

Lands

4 Adarkar Wastes
4 Hallowed Fountain
3 Field of Ruin
4 Island
2 Plains
1 Hall of Storm Giants
4 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

4 Portable Hole
2 Destroy Evil
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Rest in Peace
2 Damping Sphere
3 Skyclave Apparition

This is the deck I was playing when All-Access came to an end. It performed a lot better for me overall than Humans, though the matchups are much more extreme. Spirits still has a poor matchup against other creature decks, which is why the sideboard is full of removal.

Deck Repositioning

At its most basic, all that's changed is replacing Ascendant Spirit with Spell Queller and altering the manabase. However, that has drastically changed how the deck plays. Spirit pushed the deck towards aggressive tempo while Queller moves towards reactive tempo. UW Spirits plays more at instant speed than mono-blue, and as a result is harder to play, but also harder to play against.

Invasion of Gobakhan is a big part of that, and really shines in Spirits. Unlike Humans, Spirits can use the information gained to play around opponent's hands, and it fits into the disruption package seamlessly. Spirits isn't a go-wide deck, so taking a turn to flip the battle is feasible and worthwhile.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array

This also means that the deck's matchups have changed a lot. UW Control is a much easier matchup for UW than mono-blue, and the creature matchups are slightly easier, though still unfavorable. Midrange is a wash, as mono-blue got to steal wins getting under it while UW wins by answering their threats and answers. Overall, an improvement, though not a complete blowout.

Unusual Choices

I'm playing a number of unusual cards in my deck. Field of Ruin, Rest in Peace, and Damping Sphere aren't commonly played in Spirits. I found them very important in the Lotus Field matchup, but they have considerable utility elsewhere. The usual disruption plans weren't quite good enough anymore, but these really worked for me.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Field

Field's primary role is killing Thespian's Stage. In other matchups, it's great for killing creature-lands, but there are also decks that don't play any basics and losing a land drop is crushing. Sphere is the best anti-Lotus card around and also hurts Devotion more than they'd like to admit. Rest shuts off Lotus's easy win, and is also great against Greasefang and graveyard decks generally.

I was playing Lofty Denial, but it's far from required. Other Spirits decks are running a mix of Denial, Spell Pierce, Slip Out the Back, and even more creatures. I haven't found it to make much difference which utility spell is run in this slot. Each has enough pros and cons in each common matchup that I'm convinced it's a matter of preference.

Season Rolls On

The Pioneer RCQ season will continue into August, but I don't expect any real shakeup outside of bannings on August 7th. As such, this is the time to lock in decks and really get the nose to the grindstone to have a chance of winning. Just make sure to make appropriate devotion to the Matchup Roulette Wheel, lest it render all preparations moot.

Strictly Speaking: Azorius Lotus Control in Pioneer

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Something Old, Something New

In today's video, I'm playing another Azorius Control deck in Pioneer. This time it's Lotus Control a flavor of Azorius Control that Patrick Wu took to a second-place finish at the Toronto Regional Championship. This version uses Lotus Field in combination with either Strict Proctor or Discontinuity. This effectively ramps two mana and gives Azorius Control a much-needed power spike that it has been lacking in recent months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Field

The deck still plays Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and powerful wrath effects like Doomskar and Farewell. Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is actually immensely important in the deck, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's first delve into how to set up the "combo" and we'll go from there.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doomskar

Leveling the Playing Field

One of Azorius Control's biggest downsides historically in Pioneer has always been that it is trying to be too fair in a format full of unfair decks. Lotus Control looks to shift that paradigm. Having access to Lotus Field gives the deck a way to keep up with all the shenanigans that most of the other decks in the format are trying to do.

The way we set up our Lotus Field turns is as follows: on turn three we play Strict Proctor then play our Lotus Field. The Lotus Field trigger goes on the stack and then Strict Proctor's ability goes on the stack we can simply decline to pay the two mana for Strict Proctor's ability. From there, we ramp two mana going into our fourth turn. This means that assuming we hit our fourth land drop we'll have access to six mana on turn four. That unlocks basically every haymaker in our deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Strict Proctor

Aside from Playing Strict Proctor on turn three we can also just cast Discontinuity in response to Lotus Field's trigger which ends our turn on the spot. This means the stack is cleared, effectively "countering" the "sacrifice two lands" trigger from Lotus Field. Let me stress that we would much rather have a Strict Proctor on turn three rather than a Discontinuity for several reasons but one of the biggest is that Strict Proctor is actually quite good in the early game versus many decks. On the flip side of that coin Discontinuity is absolutely cracked late game. We'd love to have them at the ready to cast late game on an opponent's critical turn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Discontinuity

On Strict Proctor

Aside from just the "combo" with Lotus Field, Strict Proctor completely shuts down a ton of cards in the early game. Vs Greasegang Combo it stops Raffine's Informant, Saytr Wayfinder (if they're playing it), and even Esika's Chariot. Vs. Rakdos Midrange Strict Proctor disrupts Graveyard Trespasser // Graveyard Glutton and Bloodtithe Harvester. However, we need to be wary if we suspect them having a Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger because they will just get a two-mana 6/6.

There are plenty of other cards in many of the top-tier decks that Strict Proctor disrupts. Just know it has a ton of flexibility outside of its interaction with Lotus Field.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodtithe Harvester

On Discontinuity

Discontinuity is an insanely important and versatile card in this deck. Not only does it enable turn three Lotus Fields. It also is the best Counterspell/Time Stop ever because if you have two Lotus Fields on the battlefield with a Teferi, Hero of Dominaria you can just cast it off of two lands which is extremely powerful.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

One discussion I've seen online has been whether we should cast Discontinuity in our opponent's upkeep or wait until they make a game action, such as moving to combat and attacking or casting a spell. In my opinion, it's extremely contextual much like almost everything in Magic. Generally, though I like to wait. We should let our opponent go to cast a spell or attack and then we can shut their entire turn down with Discontinuity.

On the Lack of Early Game Interaction

This deck has a laughably limited amount of early-game interaction. Aside from Strict Proctor, Jwari Disruption // Jwari Ruins, and a Foretold Doomskar or Behold the Multiverse there aren't any spells that cost less than four mana. Which seems like a huge liability, which it certainly can be but think of the opposite side of the spectrum. The fact that every card in this deck is a haymaker and an excellent top deck gives this deck an extra layer of power that a more traditional version of Azorius Control just simply doesn't have access to in its current configuration.

Rather than relying on Absorb's, Temporary Lockdown's, and a much more fair approach to the game Lotus Control leverages its powerful spells to make the opponent actually kill us fast because we have an overwhelming late game.

The Decklist

Lotus Control, Explorer/Pioneer

Creatures

1 Dream Trawler
4 Strict Proctor

Planeswalkers

4 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
3 The Wandering Emperor

Instants

2 Jwari Disruption // Jwari Ruins
4 Memory Deluge
2 Behold the Multiverse
4 Discontinuity

Enchantments

2 Shark Typhoon

Sorceries

3 Farewell
1 Finale of Revelation
4 Doomskar

Lands

1 Castle Ardenvale
1 Castle Vantress
1 Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire
1 Hall of Storm Giants
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Hengegate Pathway // Mistgate Pathway
4 Irrigated Farmland
1 Island
4 Lotus Field
1 Otawara, Soaring City
1 Plains
3 Thespian's Stage

Sideboard

3 Aether Gust
4 Dovin's Veto
1 Dream Trawler
2 Lantern of the Lost
2 Narset's Reversal
1 Rest in Peace
2 Thought Distortion

Now Go Watch the YouTube Video!

If you're wanting to play an extremely powerful and fresh version of Azorius Control look no further than this deck. It has game against every deck in the format and definitely has a gear that a traditional Azorius Control deck wouldn't have. Also if you want to listen to Patrick Wu talk all about his magnificent creation I implore you to go listen to The Control Freak Episode titled "Lotus Control a Deep Dive with Patrick Wu."

Now go watch the gameplay video and don't forget to Like and Subscribe to the Quiet Speculation YouTube Channel!

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LessAlex

LessAlex, AKA Alex Blackard, is a Magic: The Gathering content creator who is passionate about playing Control decks in Constructed, particularly in the Pioneer, Modern, Explorer, and Historic formats. He also enjoys experimenting with combo decks and brewing up new and exciting strategies to stay ahead of the competition. With a focus on in-depth strategy breakdowns and gameplay, LessAlex offers a unique perspective on the game that is both entertaining and informative. His competitive resume includes a Top 4 at an SCG Open in 2014, splitting an NRG Trial in 2017, as well as countless SCG IQ Top 8s and Game Day wins. He hosts The Control Freak Podcast where he discusses playing Control decks in Constructed, and brings on guests including prominent players and creators to share their expertise. You can catch him streaming on Twitch weekdays at 9 am, and on his YouTube Channel for even more content.

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The Ring Tempts Me

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I’m not much of a gambler.

Ok, that’s not entirely true. Technically, when sports betting became legal in Ohio, I promptly signed up for a half-dozen apps to redeem promotional freebies and bonus bets. I only did this because it yielded (and still occasionally yields) free money! Perhaps the more accurate statement would be, “I love gambling, so long as I’m using other people’s money to do it.”

The opportunity to win something of value while putting little-to-no resources of my own at risk sounds like the optimal risk-reward proposition.

Magic: the Gambling?

Magic has always had an unofficial gambling component to it. I vividly remember cracking open a booster pack of Stronghold back when I was around 14 years old and finding a beautiful Mox Diamond inside.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

I had paid $3 for that booster pack, and immediately upon opening the card another kid in the hobby shop proffered $20 for the rare artifact. I accepted, thereby increasing my net worth by fivefold in all of thirty seconds. Do you know where else you can do that kind of thing? A casino.

There’s a very important distinction when it comes to Magic, however, that I need to emphasize. Rather than re-hash it, I’m going to quote an important synopsis I found on cardboardkeeper.com:

“Magic The Gathering [SIC] is not gambling. Wizards of the Coast doesn’t assign a monetary value to individual cards and sells what is advertised on card packs. Magic doesn’t advertise potential monetary gain decided mainly by chance, but some governments still choose to apply gambling laws to MTG.”

The rest of the article is a fascinating read, and I recommend folks check it out. I intend not to rehash all points made in that article—I’m not a lawyer and am far from qualified to make commentary in this space. I merely present the information as background.

I can buy a booster pack for an amount of money, open the booster pack, and sell the contents for a different amount of money. Sometimes it’s more, but most of the time it’s less, as dictated by the secondary market.

Increasing Values and Rarities

For many years, the range of card values one could open from a booster pack of a new set was fairly fixed. I remember when I first started playing Magic in 1997, cards that were still in print would almost never exceed about $25 in value. In addition, finding card values was nontrivial—I remember using the same InQuest Magazine for months because it was the only resource I had. My stepbrother and I used to call the local hobby shop and inquire about card values just to facilitate a trade.

If you didn’t know what your cards were worth, you simply guessed based on how attached you were to them. Most of the time that meant commons were $0.25, uncommons $0.50 to $1, and rares $1 to $3. Basically, the math worked out to be worth about the price of a booster pack—you got what you paid for.

That changed with the advent of the mythic rare. Suddenly, these ultra-rare cards could be worth $30-$50 if they were powerful enough in Standard. Jace, the Mind Sculptor broke that mold even further, notching around $100 of value for a single, in-print card! I’ll always remember the time Ben Bleiweiss, general manager of sales at Star City Games, advertised that a set of Jaces could be traded to Star City Games for a heavily played Unlimited Time Walk ($349.99 at the time).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Time Walk

The Masterpiece series, first introduced in Battle for Zendikar block, made things even more interesting. Suddenly, a $4 booster pack could yield a $150 card, albeit at a much lower frequency. Rewards for cracking sealed product became juicier and juicier.

Enter The One Ring

The ante was upped even further when Wizards of the Coast introduced Set Boosters and Collector Boosters. These packs contained a more concentrated amount of desirable, rarer cards, and thus commanded a premium price. You have to pay up to crack open a collector booster pack, but the rewards are there to be reaped.

To make things even more interesting, Wizards of the Coast has started introducing special cards that can only be found in collector booster packs. For example, collector boosters of Dominaria United could contain a random card from the original Legends set. Deemed “Lost Legends,” their inclusion meant a player could open a near mint The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale from a booster pack, valued somewhere in the $3000 range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Newer collector booster packs began introducing the occasional serialized card, introducing a new rarity and new monetary incentive to crack open the premium packs. Nothing, however, compares to the hype and value driven by the serialized 001/001 The One Ring.

A couple of people have already boasted about opening this one-of-a-kind card, creating skepticism in the community around authenticity. All that aside, this card is so rare that a €2 million bounty has been publicly placed on the card for anyone who opens it.

Two. Million. Euros. From a single booster pack of new Magic: the Gathering cards. A booster pack that sells for around $45. That’s a return of over 4,000,000%. Suddenly, opening a booster pack of Magic cards can be just as lucrative as winning the lottery.

Let’s Talk About the Odds

Let’s compare the odds to the lottery for just a moment here. The odds of opening a two million euro card from a Tales of Middle Earth collector booster is <.00003%--this comes from the product description. That means the odds are worse than 1 in 3,333,333.

Here are some other odds I found on Google that can offer up an interesting comparison:

Odds of getting in a car accident per 1,000 miles driven: 1 in 366
Odds of navigating an asteroid field: 1 in 3,720
Odds of getting struck by lightning: 1 in 15,300
Odds of flopping a royal flush in poker: 1 in 19,600
Odds of becoming a movie star: 1 in 1,190,000
Odds of dying in a shark attack: 1 in 3,700,000
Odds of winning the Mega Millions lottery: 1 in 302,000,000
Odds of a perfect NCAA basketball bracket: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

This really helps put the odds of opening the The One Ring in perspective. According to Google, you’re more likely to become a movie star and about as likely to die from a shark attack.

Therefore, when we talk about opening a million-dollar card from a pack of Magic, we really need to consider the most likely outcomes.

The One Ring Tempts Me

Han Solo famously responded, “Never tell me the odds” when C-3PO advises that the odds of successfully navigating through an asteroid field were 3,720 to 1. There’s something to be said about the thrill of the hunt and that sliver of hope.

In the same vein, despite what math tells me, I sit at my computer and look at the image of The One Ring and think to myself, “Why not me?” I have the same odds as everybody else, and surely someone has to open the card and make bank. It’s the same reason I play the lottery once in a blue moon when the jackpot exceeds some crazy-high threshold: it gives you a license to fantasize about winning.

At the end of the day, isn’t that what gambling on long shots is about?

The sage words of Wayne Gretzky come to mind here. “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” If I don’t purchase any boosters, I am guaranteed not to win. The only way to open a seven-figure Magic card is to crack open some packs, and I plan on doing just that, despite what logic and mathematics dictate.

Wrapping It Up

Wizards of the Coast has finally done it. They’ve elevated Magic to a new threshold of gambling without actually calling it such. The concept of inserting a card that will sell for seven figures on the secondary market into a booster pack is a brilliant way to sell record levels of product. Players are sure to purchase more collector boosters for the same reason I will: for that chance at the million.

Of course, more than 99.999%  of us will fail to open the card. Luckily, there are enough “consolation prizes” in these packs to make the endeavor fun and exciting. It’s akin to matching five numbers on your pick-six lottery; not enough to win the jackpot, but enough to fund a fun night out on the town.

If these parallels to the lottery aren’t designed, they should be. I don’t care about the legalese and the tightrope walk that Wizards walks. If this isn’t akin to playing the lottery, I don’t know what is. One thing is certain: the psychological aspect of gambling is there, and that’s what counts when it comes to selling product. Just be sure you know the numbers before giving in to emotions.

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Posted in Finance, Finance History, Lord of the Rings, MasterpiecesTagged Leave a Comment on The Ring Tempts Me

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How Wizards of the Coast Can Save Standard

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Wizards of the Coast recently made radical changes to Standard, extending the lifetime of all sets from a two-year rotation cycle to a three-year rotation cycle. This allows for a larger card pool in the format and could make room for a more diverse Standard. With no Standard rotation happening in 2023, Wizards took the additional step of banning several cards from the format and announcing changes to their banning policy. These changes all came about as a way to "Save Standard."

This raises the immediate question of "Does Standard even need saving?" Let's assume, as Wizards does, that yes the format needs saving. If that's the case, what are the underlying problems with Standard?

What's the Problem With Standard?

Are Bannings The Issue?

I found it humorous when Wizards stated that part of the reason behind making changes to their banning policy was specifically to help Standard. Their argument was that players were never sure if the cards they were playing were going to get banned as they could make an announcement basically any week. Their chosen solution is a single yearly announcement for all formats with a three-week emergency ban announcement window after every set release.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

While I have certainly stepped back from the competitive Standard scene, I have rarely heard anyone mention that the uncertainty behind continued legality was one's biggest concern behind the format. In fact, for those unaware, the old B&R announcements were scheduled 4 times a year, and emergency bans were implemented when necessary. It was only a few years ago that Wizards changed the cadence of announcements to be more flexible due to numerous Standard bannings. The most recent change walks back that flexible policy, to something akin to their older system.

The Decline of In-Person Standard

This problem feels like a red herring, but it is undeniable that there has been a significant decline in in-person Standard play. There is not a lot of solid data for us to look at to compare Standard event turnouts over a period of time to prove this, but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence. Just try to find an upcoming Standard event within 10-25 miles of where you live using Wizards' own Event Locator. How many stores are running Standard events? One? Two? None?

While I don't like relying on anecdotal evidence, I ran a loose poll in the Quiet Speculation Discord asking whose local game stores (LGSs) were still running Standard Friday Night Magic (FNM) events. Few people knew of any. I currently have five LGSs within a 25-mile radius of where I live. None of them currently run Standard events for FNM, whereas, pre-Covid all of them did. Standard was arguably in decline even before the pandemic, but the months-long pause in in-person play of any kind only exacerbated the decline.

What is really Killing Standard Demand?

So what actually is the reason for the decline of in-person Standard? I'd say the short answer is Magic: Arena. The long answer is also Arena. I remember back when Magic: the Gathering Online (MTGO) was first announced, people feared it would kill off paper Magic. Obviously, that didn't happen. The reason why it didn't is actually pretty logical. Players still had to pay to play on MTGO. If you enjoyed playing in paper and online you might have to acquire two playsets of your cards, paper versions, and digital versions. This cost was, and still is, very real for MTGO players. While diehard players had the chance to play whenever they wanted more casual players were less likely to jump in. The same cannot be said for Arena.

Why Pay to Play?

Magic: Arena is a great way to play a lot of Magic for free, and therin lies the current problem with Standard. When Standard is free to play on Arena, why would someone want to pay for physical cards and then pay a store to play in an event? This is the critical question Wizards of the Coast needs to resolve in order to get Standard back to its glory days.

Potential Solutions

Incentives

One Potential Solution is to provide players with an incentive to play in a store.

Years ago, There was just such a system, called the Players Rewards Program, wherein players built up points by playing in different events. After accruing a set amount of points, Wizards of the Coast mailed players special promos. One of the most desirable was the foil textless Cryptic Command.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

While that was arguably one of the poorest choices to make textless, it is a beautiful card and I remember many people wanting copies back in the day. Sadly, Wizards of the Coast ended the Player Rewards program, in part thanks to a few unscrupulous stores finding ways to abuse the system. I don't doubt that the cost of mailing promos to so many players' homes was also a factor in the decision.

Even if Wizards didn't want to go back down the rabbit hole of managing a program like Player Rewards, at the very least they could return to making highly desirable Friday Night Magic (FNM) promos again.

Back when Path to Exile and Fatal Push were FNM promos, they were easily worth more than the typical $5 FNM entry fee, and the chance to win one was a strong incentive to encourage players to turn out. Obviously, the challenge here is identifying good candidates to make promo cards out of. More often than not, the more valuable promo cards are tied to eternal formats rather than to Standard. Winning non-Standard legal cards at a Standard event can sometimes be at odds with the goal of growing Standard attendance, but hey, they can always be good trade fodder.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Path to Exile

Tournament Byes

Another option Wizards has used in the past was allowing players to earn byes for larger regional tournaments by accruing points won at smaller local events. This mainly affects those who enjoy competing in large events, but these competitors are often the customers who also buy more cards from their LGSs and thus keep the gaming economy going. This particular solution has very little cost to Wizards themselves and marginal cost to tournament organizers, though I suspect it would have the least overall benefit to increasing Standard play mentioned so far.

Random Giveaways

While I often consider random giveaways to be a bit gimmicky, Wizards has already started moving in this direction. They've given out serialized Shivan Dragons and Giant Growths at a few large events. While these types of giveaways may cause some people who were on the fence about attending the next big event to go, they don't do anything to encourage small local event growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giant Growth

One way to do this could be to randomly reward participants via the event registration system. For example, if they mailed special promos to one out of every 5,000 FNM participants, I could see more people wanting to play just for a shot at the Golden ticket. Ideally, winners would be notified immediately so that the store itself could celebrate and everyone could get to feed off that excitement.

Make Standard Fun Again!

I understand that "fun" is a subjective term so this solution is a bit more nuanced, but I think today's "perfect mana" Standards are a problem. When players have access to lots of mana-fixing lands, the focus of decks shifts towards "good stuff piles" rather than focused decks built on a specific theme or synergy. These "good stuff piles" tend to meld together into only a few archetypes, resulting in a stale format as players tire of mirror matches or repeat matches. It is also a lot harder to metagame around these types of decks as they inherently have few if any real weaknesses.

I remember Standards of yesteryear where metagames were far more diverse than they are now. In older Standard formats the big weakness of multi-color decks was their mana fixing. The lack of reliability for a multi-color deck to cast all its spells on time allowed more streamlined decks to go under them. I would argue that any format where you can reliably cast three-or-more colored spells on time after the third turn, is a format that will inevitably get stale.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spara's Headquarters

The problem with this strategy is that people have come to expect nearly perfect mana in Standard. I don't doubt that many would bemoan their inability to play four and five-color good stuff piles, but for the overall health of the format mana restrictions are a necessity.

Final Thoughts

This article began as a conversation over on the QS Discord server. If you're not yet a member, I suggest checking it out. I feel that if Wizards really wants to bring people back to what once was their flagship format changing B&R announcements and increasing the time between rotations is not enough. While I don't doubt that there are some ideas I have missed, the above ideas are all ones I have discussed with fellow QS members, and friends who are all heavily invested in the game. What do you think is needed to save Standard? What do you think of my proposed solutions? Let me know in the comments below.

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