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MOM Draft Deck Primer: Hopper Aggro

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March of the Machine (MOM) will be remembered for its bombs. We've talked about it as a Prince Format for the last few weeks, and while that definition shouldn't evoke the abominations of decades past, the high quantity of rares make it hard to label it anything but.

That said, this is a format where synergies still thrive. Early on, we labeled UW Knights as the most supported archetype. It probably still is. However, UW Convoke, hereafter lovingly referred to as Hopper Aggro, is another great way to approach the format when we're not seeing a stream of broken rares.

I first discovered the deck watching Twitch Streamer and Pro Tour Competitor The Ham pilot it to success. Having long considered the namesake card Halo Hopper unplayable, I needed to know more. To say this card goes late is an understatement. With an ALSA of 8.78, 17Lands has it a mere eight spots from the last picked card in the entire format. If we want the frog, it's ours. But making the frog hop is another thing all together.

What is Hopper Aggro?

Hopper Aggro is a UW Convoke deck that utilizes an aggressive start to manufacture a big board presence. With combat tricks and tempo plays, it's easy to finish off unexpected opponents. The removal in the format is not well set up to defend against this. The removal spells in the most commonly played colors are great for eliminating the huge bombs that have defined the meta. Good for them. We got Frogs.

Taking turn four off to kill a 3/2 that cost us zero mana after we first resolved a Preening Champion in the same turn is not a winning play. It is, however, one opponents may need to make if they're on the backfoot against this deck.

While this deck doesn't have the highest power level in the format, it provides pressure that many decks are too slow to combat.

One-Drops Wanted

One-drops are essential to this strategy. If we want to play Halo Hopper before turn three, we need a one-drop, and any one drop will get that done. There is, however, a hierarchy to which ones we want.

Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper and Captive Weird // Compleated Conjurer are by far our best options. When I'm in this deck, there is usually an early Weird that got me on the path. The synergy with Weird is nice because we don't lose damage when we tap it for mana, and when it flips, it offers us a reasonable creature and a card to boot.

The more of these flipping one-drops we have, the better Omen Hawker gets. We don't really want to play any Incubate tokens because they're just too slow. If we get dragged into a midrange configuration, we're likely to get wiped out. We're not against playing a copy or two of Order of the Mirror // Order of the Alabaster Host, and this helps there as well, but ultimately there's a cap on its usefulness.

In my less-successful ventures with this deck, I've been forced to settle on Enduring Bondwarden. It's a necessary evil and a really bad top-deck, but it is a one-drop.

These are the kind of starts that make the deck feel great. We can't do any of this without one-drops.

Of Jetpacks and Flying Rhinos

Aerial Boost is not a card I ranked highly when the set released. It's currently white's top-performing common, and this deck loves a jetpack. Because we're playing such a high creature count in these decks, this card provides reliable burst damage. Occasionally it's the reach we're looking for to close out a game, but sometimes we just draw three and we can jump creatures over for consecutive turns and that's game.

Originally when building this deck, I was leaning on Thunderhead Squadron as a finisher. It's important to remember that this is an aggressive deck, and while we're good at ramping, we don't want a clunky card to eventually close out the game. We want to push damage without losing tempo.

Astral Wingspan is powerful, but probably worse than Aerial Boost. It replaces itself, which is nice, but the five mana is restrictive. I'm probably taking Boost number four or five over the first Wings. This can change if our deck leans slower, but that's probably not a great sign for us.

Four-Warned

The four-drops pack a punch, but we don't want too many. Bola Slinger is a very nice option. Growing a frog into a 4/3 or a Preening Champion into a Phantom Monster while tapping down a creature for an attack, and still knowing we get to disrupt blocks again, next turn, is a good way to finish off opponents if we don't have the top finishers we want.

Putting blockers on skates

Protocol Knight can be even better but needs support. If it's just a 3/4 Frost Lynx it's excellent, but because none of the knights cost one mana, we need to have a good number of two-drops or Preening Champion to help this card perform at its best. Fortunately, a lot of our filler two-drops are likely to be knights just by the nature of the color-pair.

Knight of the New Coalition hasn't lived up to my expectations. A couple of 2/2s just don't matter as we move into the mid-game. However, the vigilance can be nice for convoke, especially if we're heavy on Aerial Boosts. Because the jetpack ignores blockers, it invalidates the ability of the other two options.

Discounted evasion, though, will always have a place in this deck. This card plays in a nice package with Raff, Weatherlight Stalwart and Temporal Cleansing. If we see the deck heading in that direction, we might want to prioritize the Knight, although it's much worse in the more aggressive builds.

My personal favorite four-drop for this deck, however, is not a creature at all.

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This card often feels like a nail in the coffin against slower decks. Casting this end step to neutralize blockers usually just means you win. Still, there does need to be a balance between creature count and these types of spells. The heavier we are on Aerial Boost, the less we want Wicked Slumber.

Prioritize Good Cards

Preening Champion is one of the best cards for this deck. It lets us double spell on turn three with the Frog very easily. A couple weeks ago I said I would take Deadly Derision over the Bird. This deck reminded me how powerful convoke can be, and I've audibled back to Preening Champion over every common. Hopper Aggro is one of its best homes.

There are some rares that are excellent in this deck. Archangel Elspeth and Zephyr Singer are two stand outs. We shouldn't eschew great rares because we want to catch frogs. However, once we're in the deck, those are two nice grabs.

Captive Weird // Compleated Conjurer, Artistic Refusal, and Xerex Strobe-Knight are three great uncommons. This is probably the best home for Strobe-Knight, and that's including UW Knights. Skyclave Aerialist // Skyclave Invader is another great option. These are the cards that everyone wants, so we need to fight for them.

After that, we need to make sure we have sufficient one-drops. If we don't have the one-drops, we want to pivot into UW Knights. Again: this deck does not work without one-drops.

We want to wheel Halo Hopper, but the card is valuable. While it often wheels, if it's clearly the best card for you in the pack, then you should take it. The extra pressure it provides is one of the incentives to being aggressive in this format.

Hopper Aggro

Here's the version of the deck I'm currently playing.

Hopper Aggro (2-1)

Creatures

1 Captive Weird // Compleated Conjurer
1 Omen Hawker
2 Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper
1 Alabaster Host Sanctifier
1 Order of the Mirror // Order of the Alabaster Host
1 Skyclave Aerialist // Skyclave Invader
1 Raff, Weatherlight Stalwart
2 Halo Hopper
1 Kithkin Billyrider
1 Bola Slinger
2 Knight of the New Coalition
1 Golden-Scale Aeronaut

Battles

1 Invasion of Xerex // Vertex Paladin

Planeswalker

1 Archangel Elspeth

Sorcery

1 Sunder the Gateway
1 Temporal Cleansing

Instant

2 Aerial Boost
1 Angelic Intervention
1 Zhalfirin Shapecraft
1 Transcendent Message

Land

1 Tranquil Cove

This deck has good one-drops, but it's definitely playing a few cards I wish had been left out. The Golden-Scale Aeronaut is pretty mediocre, as is the Kithkin Billyrider. I really wanted another Halo Hopper. I'm going to cut Sunder the Gateway for another land. While this deck can probably afford to cut a 17th land, a below-average spell is just not worth the spot. This is, however, a good representation of what this deck usually looks like for me.

The above build definitely wants a little more interaction, and could stand for a slight uptick in card quality, but it's been blessed with a couple of bombs and should do just fine.

Hopper Aggro vs. Convoke Midrange

My best version of this deck went a little bigger. This version played like more of a midrange deck, and we can definitely leverage our card selection to build the deck this way as well.

Convoke Midrange (7-0)

Creatures

2 Captive Weird // Compleated Conjurer
1 Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper
2 Marshal of Zhalfir
1 Raff, Weatherlight Stalwart
1 Swordsworn Cavalier
2 Skyclave Aerialist // Skyclave Invader
1 Halo Hopper
1 Preening Champion
1 Xerex-Strobe Knight
1 Protocol Knight
1 Zephyr Singer
1 Boon-Bringer Valkyrie

Battles

1 Invasion of Xerex // Vertex Paladin

Sorceries

1 Eyes of Gitaxias

Instants

1 Zhalfirin Shapecraft
1 Wicked Slumber
2 Artistic Refusal

Enchantments

1 Realmbreaker's Grasp
1 Phyrexian Awakening
1 Astral Wingspan
1 Tranquil Cove

This is not really Hopper Aggro, but it operates with a lot of the same principles. It's just not as aggressive. Still, the early game allows us to get a decent Halo Hopper, though we only play one. Our high card quality was accelerated by the same principles that make Hopper Aggro work; we were just settling in for a longer game. Besides, how can you say no to hands like these?

When life give you lemons, make lemonade. And when life gives you a pallet like this, make some weird art. Typically, Hopper Aggro has served as a great place to go when I'm no opening bomb rares. Some of those archetypes are hard to come by.

Credit Where Credit's Due

This deck is a lot of fun and uses some of the format's most overlooked cards. It's very easy to get access to and in my previous articles, I've had a lot of follow up, specifically about this deck. If you want to know more about it, visit TheHamTV on Twitch. Or follow his podcast, The Art of Draft.

The Commander Clash Decks to Choose If You Want to Win

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Wizards has announced a good idea: pitting players against each other using recent sealed Commander pre-cons. There are 11 decks in total to choose from, and they all have a chance. But which decks, if any, have a way better chance? Since the announcement, I've been playing sealed pods on SpellTable, and I believe there are two or three top contenders. Let's find out why they are the strongest options if you are seeking the win.

But First: A Comment and Some Ground Rules

Why are the starter decks not allowed for this event? In another baffling move, Wizards just keeps doing patently unreasonable things. How is it not a slam-dunk to allow your new players to participate in an event centered around sealed decks?

Yes, I understand that this is an in-world, story driven event. Alright, well, here's what Wizards says about that story: "The Phyrexians left devastation in their wake and permanently altered the Multiverse. The planes are riddled with strange, new Omenpaths—unpredictable gateways that provoke chaos and clashes between legendary characters."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atarka, World Render

Furthermore, they also say: "This event is the perfect fit for your Commander community and for players new to the format. Commander Decks are designed to play right out of the box, giving you the unique opportunity to introduce new players to Commander."

So at this event which spans the multiverse, where legendary characters from all over are clashing, which is supposedly for new players, the new-player-friendly starter decks are not allowed? These decks came out after the Dominaria United decks and at the same time as the Brothers' War decks. If I were an event organizer, I would allow players to use the starter decks if they wanted.

Additionally, five of the decks have cards that say "When you do Planechase stuff…." There is no indication that Planechase is part of this event. While rules are meant to be house-ruled, I think it's a safe assumption that there will be no Planechase element. I think it would be more fun to mix in Planechase but that would reward the newest decks with one better card. Overpowered? Probably not. Fun? Likely. But on a pure power level basis, the decks must be rated as standing on their own without outside help.

The Single Most Important Feature

It's board wipes! Virtually every one of these decks have decent engines that will create a massive amount of value. However, there are multiple wipes in every single deck. Building a large board state is not enough to seal the deal. It is extremely likely you must prevent, survive, or recover from one or more wipes to win a pod.

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Most of the decks have lackluster protection and poor post wipe recovery. Here is a short count of wipes or anti-wipe tech in each deck. For any boarderline cards, for example, destroy all creatures that cost two mana or less, I would consider that more of a "plus," or card that generates some advantage. I only count cards that will kill 99% of creatures in play as a wipe.

Protection means giving your creatures indestructible or phasing or countering the wipe in question, and recovery means that after a complete wipe, you can rapidly achieve a new board state with just one card. There are precious few counters in the available decks, so virtually every spell is guaranteed to resolve. It's no wonder, then, that the decks with the highest-impact spells rate admirably.

Rebellion Rising: Four wipes, three protection, four plus recovery = 11+

Painbow: Five plus wipes, two recovery = 7+

Tinker Time: Two plus wipes, one protection, two plus recovery = 5+

Urza's Iron Alliance: Three plus wipes, one protection = 4+

Growing Threat: Three plus wipes, one protection = 4+

Cavalry Charge: Two plus wipes, one protection, one recovery = 4+

Divine Convocation: Two plus wipes, one recovery, one plus protection = 4+

Corrupting Influence: Three plus wipes = 3+

Legends Legacy: Two wipes, one protection = 3

Mishra's Burnished Banner: Two wipes = 2

Call For Backup: Zero plus wipe, one plus protection = 1+

There you have it: a breakdown and scoring of what I believe to be the single largest factor in determining these game outcomes. This shows that most of the decks are on the same, rough playing field, but there are also two very clear standouts.

Of course, board wipes are not the only thing that matters; we must also talk about diplomacy and game theory.

Avoiding a Three Versus One

Drawing table aggression is a huge mistake, especially when we're talking about pre-constructed decks. These decks have minimal tutors but all have some removal. You do not want that removal pointed at your stuff because getting set back even a little will severely impact your chances to win.

Strategically, this means that a couple of the decks like Corrupting Influence and Call For Backup are at risk of being on the receiving end of the entire table. Why? Because of how they work.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas

Corrupting Influence is a special case. Spreading poison around the table is what your deck wants to do, and proliferating everyone is massive value. But when you poison three players, making three enemies becomes not worth it. The smarter play is to make friends with one player and proliferate their +1/+1 counters.

Or maybe there is another Corrupting Influence deck at the table? This instantly makes the game an unofficial 2v2, which is a strategy. Of course, once we start talking about teaming up in FFA, it's a different conversation entirely. All decks must be judged on their own, and for that reason Corrupting Influence is at a relative disadvantage.

Call For Backup is similarly not a bad deck. You can quite easily build up a huge damage, double striker that cannot be blocked. This is scary and should trigger threat recognition pretty easily. Plus, you have many attack triggers, so you must attack each turn to maximize value.

The problem here is obvious: you are going to make enemies quickly. At the same time you have little power in terms of wipes, recovery or protection. The deck is relatively all-in. Your best strategy is to single one player out, and kill them while convincing the other two players they should let it happen. It makes sense because they will have one less opponent to worry about.

Best case for them, though, is that both of you expend all your resources weakening each other while not stopping either of the other two players. In this case, you have two other players who were developing their game plan that you now have to kill. How do you do it? Unless they are vastly unlucky, this is an uphill battle I don't think the deck can win most of the time.

What Does Optimal Play Look Like?

It's likely to look a lot like sitting there building a board and appearing non-threatening until you assemble a game-ending advantage. In such an environment, decks with lots of board wipes and recovery mechanics tend to beat decks without. That is what puts both Painbow and Rebellion Rising ahead of the pack.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcades, The Strategist

Painbow has plenty of turns where you cast a mana rock or a ramp spell like Cultivate. Non-threatening, yet advancing the board. Similarly, Rebellion can drop any of their enchants like Assemble the Legion and just sit there, casting their commander and potentially reanimating Otharri, Suns' Glory for only four mana no matter how many times it has died.

Once the table has too much pressure, and a board wipe resolves, Painbow has several value mechanics from Maelstrom Nexus to Jared Carthalion which likely survive wipes and quickly reestablishes a considerable board presence. Furthermore, the deck uses wipes like Iridian Maelstrom, Duneblast, and Time Wipe, which are inherently one-sided.

Rebellion on the other hand has two free anti-wipe spells in Clever Concealment and Flawless Maneuver. On top of that, Roar of Resistance grants haste to tokens, and Rebellion can make a large amount of them at instant speed, which can be more than enough to kill the shields are down.

So Which Deck Is Better?

It's a cliché answer, but it is going to come down to player preference. Let me explain that a little more, though: whichever deck you are more comfortable piloting will trump a deck that might be a little bit stronger.

Rebellion has a lot of extended lines where you can end of turn make a pile of tokens and threaten killing someone while keeping up two free protection spells. The deck definitely has the capability to go from zero to instantly eliminating two players with the right cards like Hexplate Wallbreaker to generate an extra attack step or Adriana, Captain of the Guard giving all your creatures +3/+3. However, this requires planning and excellent play sequencing.

Painbow, on the other hand, generates pure value, huge monsters with great abilities, tons of wipes, and enough modal spells to have the right removal for any situation.

There are two reasons I think Rebellion looks significantly stronger, though. Painbow does not run Sol Ring, and Rebellion does. Because of the heavy commitment to mana symbols, it's not a mistake in deck construction; the colorless mana is a lot less valuable for a five-color deck. Rather, since Painbow has a lot of enters-the-battlefield-tapped lands and Rebellion runs so many two- and three- drops I think it's more consistent and potentially explosive deck.

Of course, that all begs the question of what looks more threatening: playing a tapped land or adding another 2/2 to the table. In either case, skillful play, good timing, diplomacy, and pure luck will all have at least as much of an impact as what deck you run. Most of the decks have a decent shot; I just believe these two are significantly ahead of the curve and a couple of decks are way behind.

Even at this moment, I'm still not sure which deck I'm going to run, but it is definitely an A or B situation, so I will see you there!

Venerated Rotpriest: Failure, or Misunderstood?

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Despite being at this for decades, Magic creators still cannot guess with 100% certainty which new cards will actually impact formats. It's easy to see how a card could be used, but whether it will be used is another matter entirely. There is so much that goes into card viability in a given format, especially Modern, that we can only guess at what will happen. The end result might be obvious in retrospect, but it often isn't, and there's a particular miss that I feel the need to reexamine.

The Nightmare That Wasn't

A few months ago, I made the bold claim that Venerated Rotpriest was the scariest card in Phyrexia: All Will Be One for Modern. The potential for a turn two kill was high enough that I bought (and subsequently sold for profit) sets of Melira, Sylvok Outcast, the only way to protect against getting comboed out by Rotpriest. As everyone should be aware, the threat never materialized.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Venerated Rotpriest

There was certainly no lack for players trying to make Rotpriest work in Modern, and many even said they were impressed by the card and the results. However, all of that came to naught, while leaving the question of why unanswered.


There is almost certainly an element of metagame inertia at play here. Convincing players to give up established good decks in favor of an untested semi-combo deck is a huge ask. Especially since Rotpriest's gameplay isn't what most players enjoy. However, if Rotpriest was good enough, it would be adopted anyway. Thus, why was I wrong about the danger.

Historical Hangover

I have been playing Modern long enough to remember when Simic Infect was such a format boogeyman that there were articles about how to correctly use removal against Infect (in short, it was anytime after combat unless absolutely necessary). The Infect of that era was looking to kill in one big hit after playing a lot of pump spells. That deck was the perfect environment for Rotpriest.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Crusader

However, I didn’t appreciate how much things have changed. These days, Simic isn't the only way to play Infect. Over the past month, I've seen quite a few Golgari Infect decks at local events and Modern 1Ks, but only one Simic, and Golgari did better in all cases. In my original article I noted how important Phyrexian Crusader’s protection from red and white are in the current Modern, but I didn't appreciate how differently Golgari actually plays.

Modern Reality

In the old days, the ideal Infect curve yielded a turn-two kill. Cast Glistener Elf turn one and then immediately pile Might of Old Krosa and Mutagenic Growth onto it for lethal. These days, the ideal turn one is casting Hierarch to play an infect creature and a protection spell the following turn. From there, the goal is to hit with chip damage once or twice before playing a single pump spell for the win.


In neither case does Rotpriest fit in elegantly. However, it at least makes sense in the old style. That deck played a much higher quantity of pump spells than current builds, and thus would have the means to kill via Rotpriest triggers. The current versions of Infect play fewer pump spells than the old versions so they can also run Spell Pierce or Thoughtseize and Crusader. As such, Rotpriest's ceiling lowers considerably.

Operational Changes

Replace Elf with Rotpriest turn one in the first scenario, and there’s the guarantee of at least two poison counters making it through (from the kill spell used against it and Growth). If the kill spell was Lightning Bolt, then it wouldn’t even work, and Rotpriest would get to attack next turn. It wouldn’t be an outright lethal attack, but it would be well on the road to victory.


Replace a Hierarch with Rotpriest in the second scenario, and things are much clunkier. First, while Bolt and Unholy Heat are the most-played removal in Modern, Fury and City of Solitude are still around, and neither triggers Rotpriest. So no guaranteed poison, and Infect will immediately start to flounder. Worse, playing Rotpriest means no Crusader, and makes the deck more vulnerable to Counterspell.

It Gets Worse

A bigger problem is that Rotpriest doesn't ultimately solve any of Infect's problems. The biggest problem the deck has these days is sticking a threat. Infect has been in decline ever since Fatal Push was printed. All the protection spells and Crusader help, but it's not enough to overcome Modern's waves of removal.

The sideboard is even worse for Rotpriest. According to the Infect players I've spoken to, Infect is now a win Game 1, try to steal a sideboard game kind of deck. There’s nothing wrong with this plan; Affinity made it work for almost 9 years. However, it is much harder for Infect to do so now than when Affinity was at its peak because the Infect hate is maindeck.

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Another issue is that Dress Down exists. UR Murktide always plays at least two copies either maindeck or sideboard. Dress completely defeats the point of infect creatures and makes Crusader vulnerable to red removal. That isn’t even getting into Engineered Explosives. Rotpriest plays into Explosives and does nothing against Dress, and therefore it just isn’t working for Infect.

The Combo Problem

Storm was another potential home for Rotpriest, and there were efforts to make it work in there. However, they haven’t gone any better than just playing traditional Infect, despite many Storm streamers praising the card. While I ultimately don’t think this is Rotpriest's fault, it does highlight the overall difficulty the card has gaining traction in Modern.

Operational Success

The weird thing is that Rotpriest did exactly what it was supposed to do in Storm. Go watch the above linked videos. Any time that Rotpriest was relevant it was because it allowed Storm to shortcut its way to victory by targeting it instead of the opponent. 20 life is harder to chop down than 10 poison counters. Having multiple Rotpriests out was practically cheating a way to victory.


I did say "any time that Rotpriest was relevant." Rotpriest was, in fact, frequently irrelevant, even in the versions that ran Ground Rift specifically to kill via Rotpriest. The issue is that outside of the Storm kill, Rotpriest didn't actually contribute to the deck. Rotpriest adds storm count and a way to cheat the kill, but nothing more.

When the Rotpriest Storm decks lost, it was because the combo didn't come together. Sometimes they were raced; often they were disrupted. Storm needs a very specific combination of spells to come together and that's hard in the current metagame. Again, I said this above, but Rotpriest added another angle of attack without fixing a deck's fundamental problem.

What's Wrong?

Rotpriest works in Storm but didn't suddenly make the deck a metagame force. The logical question is whether that means that Rotpriest just can't hack it in Modern. Given my conversations with actual Infect players and trying Storm myself, I think the answer is "We're not trying hard enough." I'm as guilty as anyone, but I think we all thought that fitting Rotpriest into Modern would be easier than it's turning out.

What really stands out to me is one of the Golgari Infect players' assessment of Rotpriest. I asked him about his deck during a deck check at a 1K, and he said that he didn't play Rotpriest and "loved slash hated" the card. His reasoning was that the potential of Rotpriest was significantly higher than the actual results. He acknowledged that it had won some otherwise unwinnable games, but mostly it was useless.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ignoble Hierarch

I naturally followed up asking what it would take for Rotpriest to reach its potential. This got him really animated, and the crux of the rant was that Infect would need to be more like Pioneer Heroic, which doesn't work in Modern. Asking if he'd tried that resulted in scoffing and an even more animated rant that was fortunately interrupted by the return of the judges.

Fixing the Problem

I agree with the central crux of the rant. Rotpriest has a great deal of potential, not just in Modern but in Pioneer and maybe even Legacy. Unlocking that potential is proving very difficult. The bottom line is that the decks Rotpriest fits into aren't good in their respective metagames. However, to the best of my Googling ability, efforts to really brew decks around Rotpriest and innovate have been lacking.

Crafting a Better Storm

In the case of Storm, everyone (me included) took existing Gruul Storm lists and just shoved Rotpriest into them. We didn't think beyond that action, and I suspect that it was the wrong call. I don't know if anyone tried it, but in retrospect I wonder if adding blue for cantrips to improve consistency might help. That would solve the central issue of Gruul Storm. Abundant Harvest alone just isn't cutting it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abundant Harvest

I'd also ask if the current Gruul Storm builds are correct. They mostly seem to be built on the assumption of a win via Underworld Breach. Breach had a great month right around when Rotpriest came out, but has been declining since then. Maybe it's time to stop dreaming the Yawgmoth's Will dream and focus on winning from the hand instead.

Deadly Infection

Making Rotpriest work in Infect may be a pipe dream. Decks like Heroic do not and have never worked in Modern. There's too much removal. Bogles isn't even regularly played anymore. The format has evolved, while Infect has not received (and likely never will) any upgraded creatures. Thus, it's probable that the fundamental problem of Infect will keep the deck down.

A more radical redesign might fix Infect, though I don't think the cards exist for that yet. Infect is tied to creatures and has always been dealt through combat. Has anyone ever tried bite effects? Flesh // Blood and Soul's Fire exist and allow Infect to strike directly at players. It would also trigger Rotpriest. The existing options are a little weak, but Wizards is always pushing the envelope.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flesh // Blood

Also, what about Pioneer? Has anyone tried to fit Rotpriest into a Heroic shell? I know that Heroic isn't in a great place, but Rotpriest would at least fix the deck's lack of reach. There are plenty of green pump spells if white or red must be cut, and Pioneer is more open to splashing than many give it credit for.

Don't Leave It to Rot

Just because Rotpriest hasn't done much outside of Standard doesn't mean that it won't ever have its day. The ceiling on the card is extremely high, but players haven't been able to reach it. While it might always be the case that the cards to make it happen don't exist yet, I suspect in this case that players need to put more work into Rotpriest to make it work. I know I'll be revisiting the card soon.

Top 5 March of the Machine: the Aftermath Cards For Pioneer/Explorer

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Aftermath is a set like nothing I've seen since I started playing Magic. With only 50 cards in the set, you might assume that none have playability outside of Standard or Commander. However, after reviewing the entire set it's clear that there are some hidden gems for Pioneer and Explorer, the two formats I play the most. Today I'll share with you my Top 5 picks for best cards from March of the Machine: the Aftermath. Make sure to check the video portion out as well because I go into deeper detail and may or may not have a few honorable mentions.

5. Metropolis Reformer

In my initial look at Metropolis Reformer, I didn't think too much of it. The fact that it can be found off of Collected Company isn't nothing. I think that this has a chance of slotting into Selesnia Angels. The fact that it protects you from Thoughtsieze effects and in Pioneer, and specifically it helps protects against Peer into the Abyss which is Lotus Combo's win condition of choice these days. Additionally, the incremental life gain that this card has built into fits with Angel's game plan. I know that Selesnia Angels has taken a back seat recently but maybe Metropolis Reformer is a tool that that deck can use to regain some metagame share in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Metropolis Reformer

4. Narset, Enlightened Exile

Now this is a card that excites me from this set.

Narset, Enlightened Exile doesn't come with a home that she can slot right into in Pioneer/Explorer. This, to me, is a huge flavor win. However, I do think this card could be useful in a Pyromancer-style deck alongside Young Pyromancer and Third Path Iconoclast which is an established archetype. You would have to stretch the mana base into white to do so but it could prove to be powerful. The fact that Narset, Enlightened Exile grants all your creatures prowess is massive. Imagine having her, one Pyromancer, and a couple of tokens in play. The damage potential is huge. I haven't even mentioned her other ability because when she attacks things get nasty. Even if all you have in your graveyard is an Canoptek Scarab Swarm you can cast it off of her ability, trigger Prowess on everything and it only gets better from there. If you have a Fiery Impulse you can likely kill one of their blockers while growing your attackers. It's pretty clear to me that the potential is there. The only question is will players want to stretch their manabase to include Narset, Enlightened Exile?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Enlightened Exile

3. Jirina, Dauntless General

Much like Narset, Enlightened Exile, Jirina, Dauntless General doesn't exactly have a deck to fit into. However, Orzohv Humans is something you will run into here and there on the Ladder on Arena and in Leagues on MTGO. When she enters the battlefield she nukes your opponent's graveyard which is great against Greasefang, Okiba Boss decks and Lotus Combo. It also has that secondary ability where she can sacrifice herself to protect your whole team. Whether it means saving them from a Supreme Verdict/card] or just a pesky [card]Fatal Push, Jirina, Dauntless General is certainly something I'll be on the lookout for in the coming weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jirina, Dauntless General

2. Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin

If Ob Nixilis had a quarter for every time he lost his spark he'd have two, which isn't a lot but it's just weird that it happened twice, you know? With that being said his latest iteration is looking like he could resurrect an old archetype in Pioneer and Explorer. I'm talking of course about what is in my opinion the most obnoxious deck to ever see the light of day in Pioneer, Rakdos Cat Oven.

When paired with A-Cauldron Familiar and Witch's Oven he can get massive with a quickness. Then you can start bashing your opponent with the Flying, Trampling Demon. It can definitely be the top-end that this deck has been lacking.

But wait there's more to the story. It goes infinite with the card All Will be One. Not that I think this will be a legit contender in Pioneer or Explorer but I'd be wary of it while grinding the Ladder or at weeklies at your local game store (LGS).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin

1. Coppercoat Vanguard

Yes, it's the uncommon Human lord that's taking the top spot on my list. Why? Because Coppercoat Vanguard slots perfectly into a preexisting deck in Pioneer and Explorer. Mono White Humans is among the best decks in the format and any given week is arguably the very best deck in both formats.

If this was just a Human lord it wouldn't even crack the top five for me. What makes this card special is the Ward 1 it grants to all other Humans. Mono White Humans is a deck that already kills quickly. Tacking Ward 1 text to all of your creatures is going to make them extremely hard to deal with. Vanguard plus Thalia, Guardian of Thraben makes opposing Fatal Push's cost three mana, which is so bad for opponents. It gets almost unbeatable in multiples because the Ward 1 stacks. This card is going to tear up both formats and I can't wait. Mono White Aggro has always been one of my favorite strategies in Magic so this will be a fun one to revisit!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coppercoat Vanguard

See More In Today's Video!

Now that you've read the article check out today's video. There's a more in-depth discussion of each of these cards, and I also share some honorable mentions that I think could also show up in Pioneer and Explorer!

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LessAlex

LessAlex, AKA Alex Blackard, is a Magic: The Gathering content creator who is passionate about playing Control decks in Constructed, particularly in the Pioneer, Modern, Explorer, and Historic formats. He also enjoys experimenting with combo decks and brewing up new and exciting strategies to stay ahead of the competition. With a focus on in-depth strategy breakdowns and gameplay, LessAlex offers a unique perspective on the game that is both entertaining and informative. His competitive resume includes a Top 4 at an SCG Open in 2014, splitting an NRG Trial in 2017, as well as countless SCG IQ Top 8s and Game Day wins. He hosts The Control Freak Podcast where he discusses playing Control decks in Constructed, and brings on guests including prominent players and creators to share their expertise. You can catch him streaming on Twitch weekdays at 9 am, and on his YouTube Channel for even more content.

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Sealed Product and New Standard Rotation

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In 11 years of writing weekly articles, I have yet to experience any dramatic writer's block. This is partly a testament to Wizards of the Coast’s constant evolution of the game of Magic. If Magic remained stagnant, even for a few months, I would run out of topics.

Fortunately, the only constant in Magic is change.

This week, the change I'm covering is the major transformation of Standard. In the past, Standard sets rotated out of the format after two years. With this announcement, sets will now remain in the format for three years! What's more, as a part of this change, there will be no Standard rotation this fall at all. Another full year of Standard life is a fifty percent increase. It also means another full year of Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, Invoke Despair, and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Is This What the Player Base Wanted?

I’m not sure this is going to deliver against Wizards’ objectives. While it bodes well for anyone who has invested in or speculated on Standard cards, the health of the format may not see the measured improvement predicted.

Alas, I am no expert in Standard so I won’t speculate too much on this aspect. Instead, I’ll refer you to David Schumann’s article from last week. David does a fantastic job diving into this topic, as well as covering some of the financial implications and his predictions for what it means for the format in general. I’m not going to re-hash his article.

I will repeat for emphasis my agreement that singles offer more potential as a result of this change. Cards that were on the verge of rotating will now have another year in Standard, and an expanding card base could open doors for new archetypes. This means either popular cards will get more popular and harder to find, or new cards will suddenly rise in popularity. Either way, it should lead to some interesting price increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shipwreck Marsh

Rippling Effects in the Sealed Market

One thing David did not cover in his article, which I'll discuss today, is the potential impact on newer sealed product. In fact, I had already noticed some upward momentum on certain draft booster boxes from Magic’s more recent sets even before the announcement.

Check out the TCGplayer market price one-year graph for Innistrad: Midnight Hunt draft booster boxes.

These booster boxes were left for dead late last year—I purchased a booster box of the set back in November for $72.99 shipped (plus tax). Now at $86, this set has already seen a 17% increase in value. Granted, I can’t realize any profit yet because of shipping and fees, but it’s promising to see the momentum in the positive direction.

I suspect that, with an extended shelf life in Standard, these boxes will offer more potential upside over the next year. If individual singles from the set increase in price, it could drive increased box openings of the set, reducing the supply of said boxes.

Midnight Hunt isn’t the only set that has seen a rebound. Check out the graph on Dominaria United, or should I say, “the Sheoldred lottery.”

It’s true that this set’s draft booster boxes haven’t rebounded as much as Midnight Hunt. On the other hand, Dominaria United boxes never dropped down as low as $72. These bottomed in the $86 range, and have since rebounded $10. Checking my order history, I see I purchased a draft booster box of this set in November 2022 for $90.94 plus tax.

Honestly, if Sheoldred, the Apocalypse remains legal in Standard, I could see it hitting price points not seen in Standard since the days of Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Should this happen, DMU booster boxes could easily surpass $100 while still legal in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Lastly, the price of Streets of New Capenna booster boxes remains the cheapest of the bunch, but these are also well off their lows.

I’m expecting these boxes to cross $80 soon, with the potential to approach $100 while still in Standard if the set can offer a bit more to the format. Currently, SNC’s biggest contribution is the tri-lands. Hopefully, the set can offer more at some point during its Standard shelf life. If not, then we’ll have to wait for Commander cards like Halo Fountain and Bootleggers' Stash to gradually climb in price.

Bucking the Trend: Neon Dynasty

One set is bucking the overall trend discussed above: Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. NEO booster boxes haven’t bounced at all.

My hypothesis here is that the set’s draft booster boxes never got as low as some of the others—currently, it is bottoming out in the $91 range, $20 higher than the bottoms of Midnight Hunt and Streets of New Capenna. It's Perhaps because Neon Dynasty never showed any booster box pricing weakness that we’re not seeing a notable bounce.

I’m keeping an eye on these all the same though. NEO offered a fantastic draft experience, and cards like Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki, Farewell, and the channel lands offer enough upside to potentially lift box prices while still legal in Standard.


Forward-Looking Statements and Accountability

Even though I’m not writing on behalf of a publicly traded company, I still feel obligated to make some sort of forward-looking statement disclaimer. Those who follow the stock market and company earnings reports are probably familiar with this lingo. It’s basically a disclaimer used whenever a company is making written or oral statements about projected financial performance, execution of vision and growth plans, etc.

In my case, I’m using this as my unnecessary caveat around predictions for sealed product. I think the extension of Standard rotation from two years to three years will lead to higher booster box prices, particularly on sets released in that twoish-years-ago range, whose shelf life in Standard just got extended another year.

Namely, this includes AFR, MID, VOW, and NEO booster boxes. I don't expect these to double in price or anything like that. I just have an inkling that extended life in Standard will lead to some higher singles prices and a lengthier time period of demand for these sets in general.

For accountability, I’m going to list the current TCG low pricing for each of these draft booster boxes to track trends over the next 6-12 months. We’ll see if this pans out at all.

AFR: $91.85
MID: $86.19
VOW: $77.52
NEO: $91.75

I don’t think these are going to jump 50%, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them rise by another $10-$20 throughout their lives in Standard.

Wrapping It Up

I should also disclaim that, while I don’t have much interest in flipping Magic singles these days, I still have a small pile of booster boxes for investment. Naturally, this biases my point of view.

That being said, I do think this change to Standard rotation timelines bodes well for booster box demand. I don’t know if it’ll lead to dramatic profits, but I do think there is some potential here, even after accounting for shipping costs.

Consider, booster boxes from just a few years ago, such as War of the Spark, and Dominaria, already sell for a significant premium over their price points while in Standard. Dominaria in particular has flirted with a $200 price tag. That could provide a reasonable profit for those who bought in when the set was relatively new.

The trend of increasing box prices is likely to magnify a bit under the new Standard rotation rules. For this reason, I remain optimistic about holding a smattering of boxes for the long haul. I can’t pretend to know which sets will be the Innistrad and which will be the Dragon’s Maze, so instead of concentrating on one set I choose to diversify—one box each of many sets should be a way of spreading risk around.

This, along with my recent focus on Magic original art, is what keeps my interest in Magic, fueling more article ideas for the foreseeable future. Here’s to another 11 years without writer’s block!

What Does Wizards’ Change to Standard Rotation Mean Financially?

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First, for those who don't read our Discord chat or keep up with Wizards of the Coasts' website announcements, we got a doozy on an otherwise calm Sunday afternoon.

There will be NO Standard rotation this year! That means when the fall set, Wilds of Eldraine, releases, no sets will leave Standard. That means another 16 months with Innistrad: Crimson Vow, Innistrad; Midnight Hunt, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, and Streets of New Capenna. This will lead to some financial ramifications for cards in these sets.

The Old Normal: Price Pullbacks

In most years, late spring is when we typically expect to see the Standard staples that will be rotating out in the fall begin to drop in price. They typically reach their floor around late summer. We can see this trend in cards like Adeline, Resplendent Cathar


However, with this announcement, I would expect any cards that had begun to dip pending rotation may rebound in price. This means there are some possible financial gains in finding these types of cards. However, it is important to remember that the Standard metagame is volatile. There is no guarantee that a card that was a Standard powerhouse returns to its former glory given this extra lease on life.

Former Duds May Find a New Home

We all make bad speculation picks from time to time. It's easy to over-value a "what-if" scenario to the point that you convince yourself that everyone else is wrong on a card and you've found the next Arclight Pheonix. Now it seems all of us who missed thus far are given a "next shot" opportunity. I'm not suggesting you double down necessarily, but perhaps it's a good idea to dig through those misses and at least keep them on your radar rather than confining them to the "ole box of shame."

On a similar note, there are some cards that barely found a home in the current Standard environment but are now more likely to find one. Often these are mana-fixing lands. The two I am keeping my eye on are Shipwreck Marsh and Rockfall Vale.

The other lands in this cycle all have a TCGPlayer Market price above $5. Shipwreck Marsh though is at $2.92, and Rockfall Vale is under $1! I think this cycle of lands was well-designed and I've seen most of them in Commander decks I've played against. Barring a reprint, these two especially seem like they have good potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shipwreck Marsh
There was an error retrieving a chart for Rockfall Vale

The Biggest Potential Winners

I normally focus on rares and mythics for speculation. The cards that typically drop in price the fastest and the farthest though are the strong uncommons. At a glance, the most played uncommons have so far shown little to no drop in value. A deep dive into all the strong uncommons might be worth your efforts if you want to buy up some "penny picks" thanks to this change.

One of these uncommons I will be keeping my eye on is Thirst for Discovery. it is a very strong card that provides card advantage and allows you to easily dump cards from your hand into your graveyard. We are already seeing archetypes built around dumping Atraxa, Grand Unifier into the graveyard and reanimating it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thirst for Discovery

Wilds of Eldraine Previews

It is unlikely that the design team behind Wilds of Eldraine or the sets occurring immediately after it was aware of this possible change. It also means that the play design team responsible for playtesting the set for Standard may also not have seen this change coming. If that is the case, it is possible some powerful and or broken interactions may occur with cards that weren't designed to be in the same Standard format. This means we will need to pay extra attention during Wilds of Eldraine spoiler season for speculation targets that fit this bill.

Why Did Wizards Make This Change?

While the focus of today's article has been on the financial ramifications of this change to the Standard Format, I think it worthwhile to briefly examine the reasons Wizards of the Coast stated were behind making the change.

  • Card Longevity - Like many others, I used to play Standard pretty competitively and rotation was always a time I dreaded as I watched the value of my collection plummet. While I can appreciate the logic behind this the flip side issue is that Standard often gets stale as a format. Like most other formats, the top cards tend to dominate, and having them remain for an additional year could easily dissuade people from playing the format rather than enjoying it. The Standard card pool will likely not be large enough to allow for a "rock/paper/scissors" type of format where different decks keep each other in check.
  • Mechanics and Archetypes Built Up - This one I will give them, I am sure lots of players noticed some potential cool interactions between cards that were released in the fall and those that had just rotated out of Standard. Oftentimes, these types of interactions aren't strong enough to survive in much larger card pools like Modern and Pioneer but may have worked in something like the old Extended format.
  • Want to push a more thematic environment instead of all midrange - I would argue that this one is more likely wishful thinking. The reason that midrange decks tend to become dominant is that they tend to play the best cards in the format at the cost of speed.

Lipservice to Local Game Stores

The announcement also mentions a push to strengthen local game stores. This is the part I find the most insincere, given that the push towards the digital realm has kicked most local game stores to the curb by cutting them out of the supply line to the players. It often seems like Wizards of the Coast knows that local game stores are the lifeblood of their game but can't get over the fact that by bypassing them they make a lot more money.

My Personal Take

I'm honestly not a big fan of this change. While I don't play a lot of Standard anymore, when I did, I loved rotation. It gave us a chance to brew and try out cards that couldn't cut it in the previous Standard format. Now, we will have less rotation and a much larger card pool in Standard. This means the cream of the crop cards like Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, The Wandering Emperor, and Farewell will just continue to dominate the format and cards that might have finally had a chance to find a home will be kept out. I'd argue that a better solution would be to rotate one set out each time a new set rotates in. This would mean more opportunities to brew and would likely mean more cards ended up being played in the format.

Here’s Hopping: Rhythm and Variation in March of the Machine

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Commons will always be the most consistent element of a Limited format. They create predictable openings and familiar exchanges. They communicate the terms of engagement that define the give and take of a format. They create the rhythm of the format.

As we discussed last week, March of the Machine (MOM) is a "prince" format. It has more rares and uncommons than most sets due to the Multiverse Legend and Battle slots and, as a result, the format has a heightened power level, annunciated loudest at higher rarities. These powerful cards exist, however, in a landscape crafted by commons.

To maximize the power of our rares and uncommons, we need to understand what the commons are doing at a fundamental level. Many of the rares are strong, but deck configuration helps us optimize these cards. There is a clear difference between hoping to draw good cards and building a deck that uses those game pieces in a powerful way.

Today, we'll closely examine the dynamic between commons and higher-rarity cards in MOM Draft.

UW: Utility Creatures

The small creatures in this format offer a lot of utility. This is especially true in UW. They ramp out convoke cards and utilize Knight synergies. Many of these small, flexible game pieces are at common to provide pressure and synergy, occasionally flipping into threats.

If our plan is to convoke, then we need to prioritize one-drops. In the right deck, Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper plays like Llanowar Elves in the early game, and a 4/3 trampler in the late game. That's a powerful card, but it only does those things in the right deck.

UW rhythm

Raff, Weatherlight Stalwart and Baral, Chief of Compliance can both turbo-charge the convoke decks. Marshal of Zhalfir wants to use our creatures to attack. However, without the enablers, all these powerful pieces will fail to generate their game-warping power.

UW variation

Halo Hopper has been a surprising overperformer. This little frog can come down on turn two with as few as one or as many as three one-mana creatures, as well as be a free spell on turn three after a timely Preening Champion or Sigiled Sentinel.

Convoke in Practice

UW Convoke (5-3)

Creatures

1 Omen Hawker
1 Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper
3 Enduring Bondwarden
1 Faerie Mastermind
1 Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive
2 Marshal of Zhalfir
1 Errant and Giada
1 Preening Champion
3 Halo Hopper
1 Zephyr Singer
2 Thunderhead Squadron

Instants

2 Ephara's Dispersal
1 Meeting of Minds
1 Artistic Refusal

Sorceries

3 Temporal Cleansing

Here's a different take on UW aggro. Halo Hopper helps build a wide aggressive board, and the discounted convoke cards finish off opponents.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Halo Hopper

Thunderhead Squadron was a little too clunky. Going forward I'd like to try Astral Wings or Tidal Terror in its place. Omen Hawker probably didn't need to be in this deck. The Marshals were underutilized. I tinkered with the build a few times yet struggled with a final list.

The frog, however, is real:

This UW strategy, turbo-charged by Halo Hopper, is quite powerful. If we can find tools to capitalize, this deck becomes a sneaky way to approach the format. Frog aside, the little creatures are important to the format, especially in UW.

BR: Sacrifice and Rectangle Theory

The UW creatures offer versatility. The BR creatures generate value. Cheap creatures in these colors thrive at trading off with a card and potentially leaving behind value. If we can capitalize on that extra bit of value, we can leverage it into big gains.

BR rhythm

Ethan Saks describes this as rectangle theory. The approach values the number of "rectangles" a card generates. This can mean tokens or other fungible game pieces. It's the reason why Lingering Souls saw play in Modern. The more game pieces we generate, the more options we have.

Wizards has labeled this strategy as Sacrifice Control, which is a novel approach to BR's perennial sacrifice theme. While the commons encourage this type of deck, the uncommons dictate what it might look like.

BR variation

The "steal and sac" principles traditionally make for aggressive gameplay, but a lot of the payoffs in this color ask us to move at a slower pace. While the commons provide excellent fodder, the uncommons will cause us to either lean more aggressive or defensive. If we're sacrificing Nezumi Informant after blocks to make an Incubate token or to draw a card, we're playing on a more value-driven spectrum. If the card we're sacrificing is dealing damage with Judith, the Scourge Diva or Juri, Master of the Revue, our deck will be more controlling.

Sacrifice in Practice

BR Sacrifice (7-1)

Creatures

1 Akki Scrapchomper
1 Ichor Drinker
2 Scorn-Blade Berserker
1 Aetherblade Agent
1 Dreg Recycler
2 Pyretic Prankster // Glistening Goremonger
1 Flitting Guerrilla
1 Hangar Scrounger
1 Voldaren Thrillseeker
1 Nezumi Freewheeler // Hideous Fleshwheeler
1 Scrappy Bruiser

Instants

1 Volcanic Spite
1 Deadly Derision

Sorceries

1 Ral's Reinforcements
3 Furnace Reins

Artifact

Battles

1 Invasion of Eldraine // Prickle Faeries
1 Invasion of Ulgrotha // Grandmother Ravi Sengir

This deck casts many of the BR commons to generate small advantages and then utilizes them with sacrifice synergies. While Dreg Recycler and Scorn-Blade Berserker aren't game-enders, they generate a good amount of advantage that aggressive decks can leverage towards victory. The commons pressure opponents well, but also generate value. These effects allow us to keep pressuring until we can cobble together lethal.

While that general strategy is familiar to the Rakdos deck in this format, this deck gets a unique edge from three copies of Furnace Reins. This powerful effect often represented damage and a removal spell. Cards like Juri, Master of the Revue and Judith, the Scourge Diva similarly boost this style of aggression.

However, if we end up with cards like Sheoldred or Phyrexian Garagantua, our gameplan changes. In those cases, we want to prioritize cards like Nezumi Informant or Unseal the Necropolis to grind longer without reach. While the BR small-ball two-for-one engine is consistent, we want to be selective as to how we support our payoffs.

UB: Value and Power

UB is the best color combination in the format. It has been the best combination since the opening weeks. UB generates value more slowly than the other colors, but the format allows this slower approach. The payoff is power.

UB rhythm

These cards all want to play a longer game. They want us to generate cards and use more mana over more turns to overpower our opponents. The format has a lot of interaction at common, and the marriage of card draw and removal spells is timeless. Of all the archetypes in the format, this one is hungriest for payoffs.

Slower decks actively seek top-end power. The longer a game goes, the more of our deck we're going to see. If we plan on seeing a lot of our deck, we want to be confident that it will yield more powerful draws than our opponent can take on.

UB variation

The commons are more interchangeable in this archetype. They draw cards, interact, and prolong the game. However, we still want to optimize our decks around our key cards. Corruption of Towashi wants Incubate tokens and Battles. Grimgrin, Corpse-Born does not.

Nearly all of our big, bomb-y creatures appreciate a Saiba Cryptomancer for protection. Additionally, any of these potent creatures make Unseal the Necropolis skyrocket in value.

Conversely, Halo Forager and Chrome Host Seedshark both want spells, while Breach the Multiverse wants Halo-Charged Skaab to loop its effect. These cards play well together, but to support them could mean cutting something like Nezumi Freewheeler. Don't be afraid to!

UB Value in Practice

UB Busted (7-2)

Creatures

1 Order of the Mirror // Order of the Alabaster Host
1 Tymaret, Chosen from Death
2 Nezumi Informant
1 Chrome Host Seedshark
1 Flitting Guerrilla
1 Preening Champion
1 Rona, Sheoldred's Faithful
1 Halo-Charged Skaab
1 Sheoldred, Whispering One
1 Hoarding Broodlord

Instants

1 Mirrodin Avenged
1 Zhalfirin Shapecraft
1 Ephara's Dispersal
1 Unseal the Necropolis
2 Deadly Derision
1 See Double
1 Transcendent Message

Sorceries

1 Eyes of Gitaxias

Battles

2 Invasion of Eldraine // Prickle Faeries
1 Invasion of Ulgrotha // Grandmother Ravi Sengir

UB wants commons that say "draw a card," removal, and a strong end game. In general, these decks are looking to play as many powerful things as they can.

In the above case, if my opponent and I were to flip our decks over, we were likely to agree that mine was more powerful. That's how I won, and this is a totally valid strategy in the format. There was some tension between the convoke cards and Chrome Host Seedshark. Cheap creatures help with convoke, but the Shark wants spells. Fortunately, Eyes of Gitaxias, See Double, and Unseal the Necropolis did a nice job tying the room together.

However, it's worth mentioning what I was doing early. Mirrodin Avenged and Zhalfirin Shapecraft helped to make better trades while digging deeper into the deck. The Informants traded off. It proved less important what they traded for. I just wanted the resource.

These cards prevent us from falling behind. From the very beginning of the game, we're looking to grind down our opponents. When we land something like Invasion of Eldraine // Prickle Faeries, the path opens for one of our bombs.

Maximizing Mana

Because the commons in this format don't incentivize aggression, splashing is better than usual. However, not all fixers are created equal. The power in the format can be tempting, so we should be willing to speculate on the gain lands at common.

While we have options for splashing, we want to remain cognizant of our build. Some of the fixers go from unplayable to reasonable options depending on how we're building our decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skittering Surveyor

It's hard not to smile when we see this card late in the pack. Colorless fixing is a gift in this format, and the many small-creature strategies want extra bodies. We can speculate on this early. It will usually make the cut.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blighted Burgeoning

This is a powerful option that can fix for double-pipped cards like Ghalta and Mavren or Kolga and Yidaro. It's a powerful combo with Portent Tracker, and the duo can do some silly things if our draw lines up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flywheel Racer

This little moped is more playable than it looks. Because so many of the cards offer little bodies plus value, an extra way to utilize those bodies can be worth its weight in gold. Especially if we're managing an ambitious mana base. This card does a not-terrible Citanul Stalwart impression, and sometimes we're okay with that. This is a card we should anticipate picking up on the wheel.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urn of Godfire

This is the weakest piece of fixing in the set in draft. However, in Sealed, it can be quite solid. Having access to a late-game piece of removal is nice when our opponents are less synergistic. Still, in Draft, we can get a little more out of it with Omen Hawker or Lurrus of the Dream-Den. We should still generally look for superior options.

Balancing Rhythm and Variation

This limited format has more payoffs than most. Whether we're thinking about maximizing a bomb rare, optimizing our mana, or getting the most out of our convoke creatures, card values fluctuate throughout the draft.

At common, the format offers predictable options. They may seem unexciting when compared to the Multiverse Legend we first-picked, the rare we got second, and the battle we were passed third. However, making the right choices at common to optimize those selections is the difference between having a good deck and hoping to draw a bomb.

Don't get it twisted: this is indeed a prince format. But that doesn't mean we're completely at the mercy of the draft. This game offers a great deal of autonomy. To take ownership of our draft, we need to know what the commons offer on a fundamental level. By capitalizing on these strategic edges, we can make our uncommons play like rares and our rares feel unbeatable.

As the format changes, and we transition to March of the Machine: The Aftermath (MAT), we will be tempted by new rares and uncommons. Still, all of the commons remain unchanged. This means the fundamentals of this format will be the same. Same rhythm, different variations. While evaluating the new cards, reflect on what this format offers at common. There's plenty of interaction and a lot of little value creatures. They're not going anywhere, so consider them carefully and use them well.

From Late to Lame: Assessing the Latest Secret Lair Commander Deck

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Secret Lair is no stranger to controversy, but that has not stopped Wizards from continuing to offer piles of product... and sometimes, product that are piles. The latest Commander-specific offering, From Cute to Brute, is an entire deck full of double-faced reprints. Does this deck make sense to buy? Is it strong? Is it worth it from a financial perspective? Let's take a look.

The Inevitable Comparison

The first full Commander deck offered via Secret Lair was Heads I Win, Tails You Lose. Debuting at a cool $99.99, I've now played against it numerous times... once it had finally got into the hands of players, that is. Absurd delays aside, the deck was reasonable in terms of value, playability, and theme. Also, by value, I don't mean solely the price of the singles in the deck; I mean the entire package, which came with a bunch of swag. Besides the deck, you also got the following:

  • 1x Super Special Coin 
  • 2x Display Commanders 
  • 10x Double-Faced Tokens 
  • 1x Deck box 
  • 1x Life Wheel 
  • 1x Strategy Insert 
  • 1x Reference Card 
  • MTG Arena Sleeves

From Cute to Brute, on the other hand, gives you almost none of these add-ons, but you do get five more double-faced tokens and three more Display Cards. What are "Display Cards?" They are the very thick shiny cardboard cards you get in every Commander pre-con.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom

For an additional $50, this change certainly seems like a bad deal for you and a great deal for Wizards. One thing they did improve upon was getting the product completed, printed, and ready to ship on time. That being said, it seems like there are some issues that maybe could have been avoided with a little more time and care.

Financial Value

As always, there is a bit of stickiness to predictive analysis. Furthermore, I have covered Secret Lair product before and the same broad generalities apply, so I will truncate my points. The question at hand: is Brute worth your hard-earned cash?

If you took the entire deck right now and purchased it as singles, it would cost about $300. For $149.99 plus tax, that seems like a good deal. Problem is, that's the price of the cards now. There are always plenty of vendors who break their boxes for singles, so the supply of reprints goes straight into the secondary market, depressing prices quickly. In the meantime, the price of every card in this deck will tank upon release. If you like some of the artwork, but not all, then buying the one or two singles you may want a month or two later is a move with solid historical pedigree.

However, there may be a perverse incentive to buy and hold sealed product in this exact case. Overall, there is a fairly weak initial reception to From Cute to Brute, and decks have not immediately sold out like many other SL products have in the past. If nobody buys it, sealed product may end up being a bit rare... in several years. Unopened, unique, shiny, artwork that is somewhat limited tends to appreciate in value.

But realistically, who wants to tie up money for that long in this kind of product? I think there are plenty of other financial plays that would generate more value now, whether in Magic or the world at large. Still, it's something to consider for the gamblers and sealed aficionados out there, and if it's unexciting, it is safe. There are sure to be a select few stowing away one or more copies of this deck, and those copies are all but guaranteed to be worth more in a decade than they are today.

Deckbuilding Disaster

"I want to make a five-color double-faced deck!" Sure, that's a deck building prompt. At least the deck clearly has inspiration behind it. But does it work or make sense?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge

Unfortunately, I feel like this deck fails on several levels. The first of which is the inconvenience of having to constantly re-sleeve cards. Since they do not give you cool, customized checklist cards, you basically need to double sleeve. Plus, playing against this deck presents a nightmare for players that do not know every card. Have fun de-sleeving multiple times per card as your novice table gets a good look at both sides before choosing targets for their removal spells.

Next, the deck is five colors, but how many lands are? A generous interpretation is five. Consider thatVivid Grove fix colors twice, and Terramorphic Expanse and Evolving Wilds fix once, and there is only one Farseek. If Wizards had at least included Sylvan Scrying and Expedition Map, then maybe you could convince me that you could regularly tutor up The World Tree, but the deck has neither.

The fact that the double-faced lands only tap for one color of mana seems like a big mistake. Over half the deck is made up of double-mana symbols and multi-colored cards, so the land base makes casting difficult, and many hands awkward.

No-brainer auto-includes like Growing Rites of Itlimoc // Itlimoc, Cradle of the Sun, Golden Guardian // Gold-Forged Garrison, and The Restoration of Eiganjo // Architect of Restoration are somehow absent. There's little sense of a "game plan" except for dumping stuff into play, and very limited removal as well.

Well, Pongify is here! Why? Because their deck-building algorithm showed they needed to reprint a blue instant? Recent Commander pre-cons include EDREC Top 100 cards. Having Cultivate, Kodama's Reach, or any signet over Altar of the Pantheon would just be better in every way.

Buy In-Print DFCs to Fix This Mess!

The real reason this deck has no synergy, no battles, is missing obvious includes and is five colors? To get you to buy more MOM, of course! In the least "Secret" move ever, Wizards had an obvious game plan going in:

1) Make a DFC Commander deck right in time for MOM
2) Re-print some older, value DFCs with no real synergy
3) Jam them into a pile and call it a deck
4) ???

Step four is profit, of course. This is where Wizards messed up, in my opinion. If you start looking at building a DFC-based Commander deck as your main focus, it's very likely you don't want most of the cards in From Cute to Brute. Unless you're absolutely married to the art style of the new deck, you'll build something entirely different, less expensive, or simply way better in terms of flavor and power.

So there you have it: Wizards made a product for a very limited audience and is charging them through the nose for it. This is the goal of Secret Lair, right? I'm all for releasing cards as cool art pieces. However, throwing a pile together and calling it a deck while simultaneously reducing value to the consumer and raising prices is, frankly, outrageous.

What They Should Have Done

Including any of the DFC Transformers with deck-defining abilities, mythic DFC lands, a slew of great options from among the Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Sagas, and more five-color lands with better mana fixing would go a long way to turning From Cute to Brute into a deck.

The fact that Heads I Win, Tails You Lose is a completely functional Commander deck that does not require alteration, offers value in every way to the consumer, and showcases new art proves that Wizards can make good Secret Lair Commander decks. Besides being late to shelves, Heads was a great and beloved product. This time, though, Wizards has instead completely over-compensated and sacrificed everything from value to playability to make sure the deck released and shipped punctually.

Oh, and they also charged 50% more.

I Wouldn't Buy This With Your Money... Let Alone Mine

This is a hard pass for me on multiple levels. While it doesn't feel like a great investment, it could be an okay one. The deck looks difficult to play and not powerful at all, while also not looking very fun. There are definitely vastly more powerful Bridge-based decks that effectively cascade anything you want into play, and that is not this deck. But if you're in love with the art style then, by all means, buy!

One thing I do like about From Cute to Brute, though, is that it makes me want to build a DFC Commander deck. So thanks go to Wizards for all of the inspiration with none of the $150 charge. It seems like a two- or three-color deck will work harmoniously while containing sub-themes besides merely being double-faced. I'll get to brewing, see if I can match up with someone that has the deck on SpellTable, and report back.

Niche Filling: Aftermath’s Place in Constructed

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Having seen the full spoiler for March of the Machine: Aftermath, I'm thoroughly underwhelmed. As I mentioned last week, this set feels more like a carved-out piece of the main set than anything unique. Specifically, a piece that was carved out as Commander fodder, as most of the cards seem specifically designed to be used as commanders.

That said, there are a few cards that could make normal constructed formats. Assuming there's a need to fill their very specific niches. Today, we'll explore the most exciting standouts for Constructed play.

Metropolis Reformer

There is no shortage of three mana white hatebears with niche effects. The one that's seen the most play is Archon of Emeria, as Rule of Law stapled to Kismet is quite potent. The new addition, Metropolis Reformer is unique but isn't going to beat Archon for any slot.

Adding vigilance and a relevant creature type is a solid start but aren't relevant to playability. What matters is the actual hate effect, and Reformer's is too niche for widespread play. While giving players hexproof is sometimes relevant, the previous white creatures that did so (True Believer, Aegis of the Gods, and Keen-Eared Sentry) have never seen much play.

The problem is that all of these creatures are extremely fragile. Leyline of Sanctity still sees play because enchantments are hard to kill. If an opponent really needs to target you, they'll have a way to kill the creature. Also, most of the time the only effects targeting players are discard spells, and other than Leyline, none of these cards are fast enough to protect against them.

The Natural Home

Pioneer Angels could fit Reformer in with no issue whatsoever. I just have no idea why it would bother. Mono-Red is not a difficult matchup, and that deck doesn't go face with its burn much anyway. The lifegain is nice there, but not crippling. It might see play to slam the door shut, but there's no pressing need there, and Angels has other problems to sideboard against.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Resplendent Angel

The other combo decks have ways to remove Reformer and/or win conditions that don't target. Mono-Green Devotion can simply wish for Skysovereign, Consul Flagship or Cityscape Leveler. Lotus Field has Otawara, Soaring City and Approach of the Second Sun. Against everything else, Reformer is an okay threat, but just doesn't stand out.

The Special Niche

I don't think Reformer will see Pioneer play. If it does see play outside of Standard, I suspect it will be in Modern. There, Reformer is easily the best anti-Burn card printed in years. The only card that's more devastating is Collective Brutality, at least among maindeckable cards.


Reformer is immune to Searing Blaze, which is a great start. The hexproof means there's no getting around it: Burn players will have to remove it to make their deck work again. Removing it with damage gains life, meaning that Reformer represents a net of -2 cards to the opponent. The first card is lost killing Reformer, and the second comes from the three life gained, which is an entire spell's worth of life. All without having to discard your own cards.

There's really no need to be this worried about Burn for most decks. Burn isn't that big a piece of the metagame, and there are lots of ways to answer it already. However, if that ever changes, here's a very strong answer.

Jirina, Dauntless General

Every time a new, even marginally useful human is printed, players always act like it's the thing that will return Humans to the top of the metagame. Never mind how many times it's been said already that this is the one! Please also ignore that Humans returned to the metagame recently by rediscovering the 18-year-old Shining Shoal. No, it's new cards that will revive the deck. Is my eye rolling coming through?

Aftermath is no exception, and there are a number of potential Humans cards within. The most commonly cited card is Coppercoast Vanguard. 2/2 for two is a standard rate, and increasing Humans' power and giving them ward isn't bad. However, the fact that none of that applies to itself is fatal, literally. Opponents will just kill it first or sweep the board rather than worry about the ward triggers.

Jirina, Dauntless General is a slightly different matter. Her sacrifice ability has been touted as a way for Humans to finally beat Fury. Again, please forget about Shoal. True, Jirina does also protect against Supreme Verdict, but UW Control doesn't always run that card anymore. These types of effects work great when they're surprises, but are mediocre otherwise.

The Natural Home

Obviously, Humans could play Jirina. However, that would require Humans to regress to an earlier era of the deck. The current version sacrifices Aether Vial in order to gain Shoal, and to an extent Emeria's Call // Emeria, Shattered Skyclave. This has weakened Humans against some decks but has proven worthwhile enough against the top decks put to get Humans back in the game.


Selfless Spirit saw a lot of play, but had the benefit of being played alongside not just Vial but Rattlechains and Collected Company. Thus it got to surprise counter Verdict very easily, while Jirina will have Vial at most. This severely limits the critical surprise factor with this effect. Otherwise, opponents will just kill Jirina end step, untap, and then sweep the board.

The Niche Application

That said, Jirina is phenomenal against Living End. The first ability is obviously good as graveyard hate, but the second ability is still relevant. While it doesn't protect against having your board wiped, it can still be sacrificed before Living End resolves, ensuring that you have a creature afterwards. While facing a board of huge monsters is bad, having to rebuild your own from nothing is worse, and Jirina fixes that problem.


If Living End becomes enough of a problem for Humans to want Jirina, she'll need to justify two significant changes to Humans. First, the mana base will need a rework. Shoal has moved Humans to mono-white, and Jirina requires black mana. That might be easy, but it might also require giving up something to maintain balance. The other issue is that Humans would need to readopt Vial.

In a hypothetical metagame where Living End needs such a specialized answer, that all might be worthwhile. The metagame would likely shift away from red removal toward counters, making Vial more useful. Blood Moon might be less of a concern as Living End always plays Foundation Breaker, sometimes even maindeck. Outside of that kind of shift, I'm skeptical of Jirina.

Reckless Handling

Wizards rarely makes tutors anymore, so anytime a cheap one is made it is immediately scrutinized. Which is unfortunate for Reckless Handling, as it is rather narrow. Finding only artifacts isn't bad, but remember that Whir of Invention isn't played anymore. Making matters worse, Handling is a riff on Gamble.

Gamble used to be a staple in Legacy Lands because Lands always needed Life from the Loam and didn't care if it was discarded. That time has passed, and now Gamble is only found in red combo decks that similarly don't care which zone the tutored card is in, but just that it's out of their library. It's reasonable to assume that Handling will only see play in a similar deck.

The Natural Home

The only deck (I can think of) that sees any play and fits all the criteria for playing Handling is Jeskai Urza. It already runs Goblin Engineer to find Sword of the Meek, so Handling provides some redundancy and a marginal upside. Emry, Lurker of the Loch also means tutoring for any other artifact isn't actually gambling, but rather a guarantee that the artifact will end up on the stack.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emry, Lurker of the Loch

The Big Problem

That's all well and good, but why would Urza bother with Handling? Engineer already does everything they need, and if another tutoring effect was needed, Whir exists. The fact that I haven't seen Whir in any Urza deck is a pretty strong indication that it just isn't good enough anymore. If a tutor that puts the card directly into play isn't good enough (and often costs no mana), how can Handling be?

The Brewer Traps

Every new set release leads to a surge in brewing, which is no bad thing. However, there are always a few cards that are effectively traps. They look like strong cards to either build around or provide so much theoretical value that they can't resist putting it into every deck, regardless of their deck's actual need for the card or overall strategy. Aftermath has several cards that will certainly prove potent traps.

Filter Out

Paradoxical Outcome is a Vintage-defining card, and Filter Out has shades of its utility. While there's a case for using Filter as a way to clear boards of prison pieces, Modern and later formats have Hurkyl's Recall for that job, and that's one sided. Filter not targeting will be mostly, though not entirely, irrelevant, while costing one less mana is always relevant.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that Filter would be used for any reason except to fill Outcome's role. In Vintage, I could see it making the cut as additional Outcomes, though significantly worse. Given that Outcome doesn't see play in Modern or Legacy as is, there would need to be a new combo deck to make it work.

I've heard chatter that players are working on it with Urza, Lord High Artificer and zero-cost artifacts, but at that point, why not just play Outcome? Once Urza is out, mana is largely irrelevant, so the difference between three and four mana becomes trivial. What isn't is Outcome drawing cards, which Filter can't do. As Outcome also doesn't automatically destroy tokens, I think working on Filter is wasted effort.

Cosmic Rebirth

This card is dripping with value potential. Instant-speed reanimation is extremely rare, and a spell that reanimates with upside is even rarer. Cosmic Rebirth may be limited to reanimating only three cost or less, but it can get any permanent. It can target higher costs too, though that's just being a bad Eternal Witness at that point. The life gain is gravy.

I've seen a lot of chatter about reanimating A-Teferi, Time Raveler in Modern in response to cascade triggers. Which I won't deny is really appealing. The issue is that such a situation isn't exactly optimal. Ignoring the possibility of Force of Negation, having Rebirth available to get around a failstate isn't the best use of a card. Furthermore, outside of that scenario, what exactly is Rebirth doing for any deck?

This is a card that almost any deck could play, but that won't do much for most of them. Yes, getting a land back to ramp is a thing, but three mana conditional ramp isn't really constructed-worthy. Pioneer, where I've seen this kind of talk the most, doesn't even have fetchlands to abuse. This is a card with too much value to ignore entirely, but unfortunately, it's useless value.

Design Consequences

Aftermath doesn't have much for non-Commander players. What is available is quite conditional and/or deceptive. They have their uses and can be great, but only in exactly the right situation. While I expect to see some of these cards played against me, I doubt that they'll be setting any format on fire.

Unleashing the Power of Invasion of New Phyrexia in Explorer Azorius Control

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Allow Me to Re-Introduce Myself.

My name is Alex Blackard, but you can call me LessAlex, the Control Freak.

I am an avid Control player that specializes in Pioneer, Explorer, Historic, and Modern. I am a content creator and I couldn't be more stoked to get the opportunity to make videos and articles for Quiet Speculation. I’ve been playing competitive Magic since New Phyrexia came out in 2011. I stream on Twitch weekdays, have a YouTube Channel, and host a podcast called “The Control Freak” where I have guests on to chat about competitive Magic through the lens of a Control player. 

Some of my Magic accomplishments include a Standard SCG Top 4 in 2014 with Jeskai Geist, a Modern NRG Series Trial 2nd place finish in 2017 with ol’ reliable Azorius Control, several SCG IQ Top 8’s, and a litany of Gameday wins.

Welcome to New Phyrexia.

In today’s video, I’m testing out the power of Invasion of New Phyrexia // Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir in Explorer Azorius Control. 

Why, though? Invasion of New Phyrexia // Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir does an excellent Elspeth, Sun's Champion impersonation and is extremely good at gumming up the board. This is exactly what we want to be doing against some of the best decks in Explorer—Specifically Rakdos Midrange, Mono-Green Devotion, and Mono-White Humans. It's also good in the Azorius Control mirror. I have to say you don’t typically transform it and flip into Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir because more times than not when you resolve a large Invasion of New Phyrexia you win the game soon after. However, if you ever do get to cast Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir every ability is absolute gas. Looting two cards every turn is so powerful. The Emblem makes it so your tokens are often bigger and better than your opponents' creatures. The Ultimate does a good impression of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria’s “tuck” ability.

The Decklist

Azorius Invasion Control, Explorer

Instants

2 March of Otherworldly Light
2 Memory Deluge
2 Make Disappear
1 Censor
2 Change the Equation

Sorceries

4 Lay Down Arms

Enchantments

Land

1 Hall of Storm Giants
1 Castle Ardenvale
1 Otawara, Soaring City
2 Castle Vantress

Sideboard

2 Change the Equation
1 Temporary Lockdown
1 Kaheera, the Orphanguard
1 Sunfall
1 Temporary Lockdown
3 Regal Caracal

If you're looking for a fun new look at Azorius Control in Explorer I definitely recommend trying this one out!  Thanks for reading and enjoy the Gameplay video! I’m looking forward to the future of Control in this format with the newest addition to the deck! 

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LessAlex

LessAlex, AKA Alex Blackard, is a Magic: The Gathering content creator who is passionate about playing Control decks in Constructed, particularly in the Pioneer, Modern, Explorer, and Historic formats. He also enjoys experimenting with combo decks and brewing up new and exciting strategies to stay ahead of the competition. With a focus on in-depth strategy breakdowns and gameplay, LessAlex offers a unique perspective on the game that is both entertaining and informative. His competitive resume includes a Top 4 at an SCG Open in 2014, splitting an NRG Trial in 2017, as well as countless SCG IQ Top 8s and Game Day wins. He hosts The Control Freak Podcast where he discusses playing Control decks in Constructed, and brings on guests including prominent players and creators to share their expertise. You can catch him streaming on Twitch weekdays at 9 am, and on his YouTube Channel for even more content.

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Serial Printings of Serialized Cards

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“’Cause we are living in a [serial] world and I am a [serial] girl.”

This is a bit of a stretch, but did you know that Sesame Street did a parody of Madonna’s “Material Girl” about eating cereal? The song was titled “Cereal Girl” and it was absolutely adorable. By laddering back to this version, my pun isn’t so far-fetched.

Bad dad jokes aside, we have truly entered a new age of Magic collecting with the advent of the game’s newest “rarity” level, serialized cards!

A Brief History of Serialized Magic Cards

Magic introduced serialized cards with the printing of special mirrored Viscera Seers. These were initially discovered in November 2021 as the bonus card found in foil Phyrexian Praetors: Compleat Edition boxes. News of the uniquely numbered card took the community by storm. Copies of these otherwise-common cards sold for well into the thousands.

About a year later, in November 2022, Wizards of the Coast introduced new serialized cards that could be opened from Brothers’ War products. These were special versions of the Retro Frame Artifact series that were randomly added to booster packs. Everyone dreamed of opening a Retro Frame Wurmcoil Engine in their booster pack, but opening a serialized copy of the card yields a hefty payday.

Instead of being only limited to 100 copies like Viscera Seer, each of the 63 Retro Frame Artifacts had 500 serialized copies printed, meaning there were theoretically 31,500 new serialized Magic cards introduced to the market (not all of them will be opened).

Since then, we’ve seen multiple series of serialized cards either introduced or spoiled for release in the near future. Secret Lair 295 Shivan Dragons, Multiverse Legends, The Lord of the Rings, Secret Lair Giant Growths, and possibly others all contain cards that may have a unique serial number.

I’m beginning to wonder, however, just how “unique” these unique cards truly are.

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

We’ve seen Wizards of the Coast follow this pattern time and again. Remember when each new set launched with a simple 36-pack booster box, and each booster pack contained one rare, three uncommons, and eleven commons? Whatever happened to those days?

First, it was foils, introduced back in Urza's Legacy. I despised the idea at the time but foils back then were very sparse and difficult to open, so their impact felt easy to overlook. Over the years though, the distribution of foils became higher and higher until, eventually, some booster packs included a guaranteed foil.

Then Wizards of the Coast introduced the Mythic Rare with Shards of Alara, and a new level of rarity was born. Imagine opening a foil mythic rare! The odds were so low, it was like winning the lottery.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Having rarities that stopped at mythic still wasn’t enough. As mythic rares became normalized and the player base became desensitized to their special nature, Wizards of the Coast scrambled to introduce another level of rarity. In 2015, Wizards of the Coast did just that—they introduced the Zendikar Expeditions, these special-framed super duper rares were even more difficult to pull from a booster pack. I remember opening an Expedition Wooded Foothills during a game of pack wars with a friend of mine, and was thrilled! I had basically opened a $100+ card in my $3 booster pack.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wooded Foothills

After numerous sets with Masterpiece Series cards—as they later became known—even these special cards lost their luster.

Too Much of a Good Thing?

The flavor of this generation, it seems, is the serialized card. When foils, mythic rares, and Masterpieces aren’t special enough, let’s slap some numbers on a card instead to make them really collectible.

At first, the idea sounded exciting. While not novel to card collecting (serial numbering first appeared on a football card in 1990), the introduction of numbered cards brought the same excitement as the previous rarity introductions in years past. Just like those former rarity introductions, however, this one seems to be losing its luster.

Sure, the original Viscera Seer cards still carry significant value and are extremely rare (only 100 made). The more desirable Masterpiece cards such as Sol Ring and Mana Crypt will always hold a significant premium over the less desirable ones. I’m confident that all serialized copies of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer will cost an arm and a leg due to its playability. Certain numbers will also always be more valuable than others.


Despite all this, I can’t help but wonder if we’ve passed a point of no return now, and the concept of serialized cards has become a mainstay in Magic. The most playable and desirable such cards will of course maintain a significant premium. The concept of owning a serialized card, however, will gradually become less special over time.

We’ve already seen some serialized cards selling for under $100 on eBay, and this trend is likely to accelerate as more such cards are printed.

In my humble opinion, Wizards of the Coast is taking the concept too far. Making serialized cards the norm and not the exception will gradually detract from the excitement they bring to the game.

At this rate, five to ten years from now, they’ll need to create some new level of rarity.

How Low Can They Go?

When the Zendikar Expeditions first came out, they were all worth at least $50, more or less. Nowadays there are a number of them retailing in the $20’s, and Tectonic Edge can be purchased for even less. While this is arguably the least exciting Masterpiece to be printed, the idea that a Masterpiece can be had for less than the price of a collector booster pack speaks volumes to their availability and desirability.

I predict a similar trajectory for serialized cards. I don’t care that only 500 serialized Tymaret, Chosen from Death cards exist. The card isn’t all that exciting, and will likely decline in price over time. The same goes for some of the other less-than-exciting Multiverse Legends cards that were recently printed.

To be fair, serialized cards will always carry some value much like the Masterpieces do. Don’t expect the less playable cards to maintain such a high price point, however. While supply and rarity definitely carry significant weight when determining a card’s price, demand needs to also be there. The serialized Tymaret, Chosen from Death is twice as rare as the cheapest Alpha rare, yet it already sells for 1/4 the price.

A Note on the One Ring

Before concluding, I wanted to spend a moment discussing the one-of-a-kind, 001/001 The One Ring, to be sold in a collector booster of The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth.

In a world where serialized cards are becoming more and more common, how much do you think this card should be worth? I’ve already seen public offers north of $100,000 for the card, and this completely baffles me.

While there is a novelty to being “the one” who owns the ring, fueling emotions that Frodo Baggins and Gollum must have felt throughout the novels, I still can’t imagine dropping a mortgage on a single card. I understand that this is a one-of-a-kind card, and that surely makes it special.

Do you know what else is one-of-a-kind? Original Magic artwork. In fact, since last week I successfully found and purchased my first piece of original Magic art! My gratitude goes out to Phil Li (@ThePheylop) who helped me find a piece I loved and negotiate a price I could afford.

I’ll share more once it arrives, but the reason I bring this up is that the art I purchased comes with a serial numbered COA. Do you know what the serial number is for this beautiful piece of artwork, which I plan to frame and hang on my wall for friends and family to see?

You guessed it. 1/1.

Does this mean my artwork is going to be worth more than a house? Of course not! I’m guessing there are thousands of 1/1 paintings that go along with some of Magic’s most beautiful pieces of art. Each one is one-of-a-kind, and each one carries significant value. Only a handful will be worth the same order of magnitude as the special 001/001 The One Ring, however.

If Wizards prints more 001/001 cards in the future, the ultimate rare will eventually become more affordable as well. Until then, this first and only 001/001 card could be the most valuable ever.

Wrapping It Up

When the serialized mirrored Viscera Seers first hit the wires, Twitter was much abuzz with the news of their existence. Now, just a few short years later, I see serialized cards show up in my Twitter and Discord feeds on a monthly (if not weekly) basis. No longer do I double-take, wondering how to obtain such a special card.

Instead, I marvel at their novelty less and less with each new printing. Based on recent spoilers for upcoming sets, I suspect there will be many more coming out soon. So many, in fact, that even if their rarity remains just as high, the demand and price point for the less desirable ones will continue to falter.

If you want a popular serialized card for play, it may not behoove you to wait—the best Masterpieces have become very expensive over the years. If you just want a serialized card to say you own one, however, and you aren’t particular about which one you own… I say wait. Wait another six months or year to see just how many more times Wizards of the Coast prints them.

At this trajectory, you may be able to find one for under $50. While they’ll still be just as rare, with only 500 of a given card to exist, the fact that 100’s of these only-500 printings will be created means that finding one for cheap will become relatively easy. These may be rarer than Alpha rares, but for many of them, they remain less valuable indefinitely.

MOM Is Still Limited: Common Logic in a Rare Format

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When opening a pack, we always hope for the busted rare. This format provides that surge of joy more often than most. March of the Machine (MOM) approaches the "Prince Format" problem, wherein lucky openers of great rares are significantly favored even against skilled drafters, by offering more opportunities for these exclusive pulls. Sheoldred, Whispering One and Invasion of Innistrad // Deluge of the Dead can join a third potent rare in the same pack!

So yes, rares have an outsized impact on the format. That being said, this is still Limited, and as always, Limited gameplay is defined by commons. There are many good commons in the format, but two stand above the rest. Today, we'll consider the commons of MOM and how to leverage that knowledge into more trophies.

1A and 1B: Preening Champion vs. Deadly Derision

Preening Champion has the highest GIH WR% of all commons, while Deadly Derision boasts the top IWD. These are the format's best two commons.

In one corner, we have an above-rate creature. Preening Champion is a Wind Drake with meaningful types that brings along a token to further enable convoke. This card plays well in any blue deck, and has archetypal synergies with blue's two strongest identities. Additionally, it puts us in the best color. While MOM's top color might be contested, blue's deep assortment of commons lets it support multiple drafters.

In the other corner we have... a removal spell. And while I'm embarrassed to admit it, I'm picking the removal spell.

In most formats, I would consider such a decision disgraceful. However, removal spells are just too important in MOM. While blue has a lot of tools for dealing with creatures, most lack the permanence and versatility of this point-and-click answer. Temporal Cleansing and Ephara's Dispersal don't always get the job done. But instant-speed kill anything plus a treasure is one of the safest effects we can include. In a world where every deck has a Chrome Host Seedshark, Boon-Bringer Valkyrie, or Vorinclex, we simply cannot be caught without an answer.

Other Commons to Consider for Pick 1

To be fair, it is disappointing to start a draft with one of these cards. Commons are never the flashiest first picks. Still, these cards are solid, and can help us build a strong deck. They boast flexibility within their colors and power within the format.

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Ephara's Dispersal is still underrated. It has the second-best GIH WR% and is a big contributor to blue's stranglehold on the format. We've talked about the importance of tempo-positive interaction in this article basically every week, so I'll spare you the lecture.

While we should want to be blue, we shouldn't sacrifice power level to do so. Open colors will offer us more than the best color in a vacuum. Blue provides strong commons, but if the color isn't open, we won't see the many potent difference-makers. It's similar to red in All Will Be One (ONE) in being so deep at common that we can pair it with anything and get a good deck. The difference is that in ONE, aggro chased away the bombs. In MOM, we want to position ourselves to draft bombs.

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Red gives us the option to zig while the meta zags, and Volcanic Spite is a common we should consider as an "on ramp" to the color. Cheap interaction and filtering with the potential to flip a battle is an incredible amount of versatility for a two-mana instant. Once we're in red, this card moves up our pick order rapidly, but in a soft pack one, I'm not heartbroken to walk away with the better Fire Prophecy.

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Pest is a jack of all trades, but a master of none. Early on it smooths out land drops, while in the midgame, the ability to dig for a battles provides potent versatility. This card facilitates a green-based multi-color deck, and is often searching up Sultai-flavored battles to pull ahead of our opponents. We should move flip cards up our pick order once we secure a couple of pests.

A Common Cause

Synergy matters a great deal in this format, and while we'd like to start that synergy with a card of higher rarity, doing so is not always an option. Once we commit to a path, an on-plan common will outperform an off-plan rare. Occasionally, we're so enchanted by speculation, we cast discipline to the wind.

In modern limited designs, we see a lot of reskinned effects in new environments. This can cause us to ignore them. We should instead reconsider how they perform in this meta and in our deck. The following cards play well in their archetypes and are easily overlooked. Don't be sure that they'll table. If we need them, we should take them.

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It's always a blessing to be in an open color. This is especially true when we can position ourselves to snipe a higher concentration of rares than the average set might hold. Playing multi-colored bomb-soup is a reasonable way to ensure we have access to that plan, which is especially well-supported in green. If we sense ourselves being pulled in this direction, we still want to make sure we're disciplined... even while embarking on the greediest path archetype. That means prioritizing Blighted Burgeoning.

While it's not as powerful as Invasion of Zendikar // Awakened Skyclave, it's a fixer that ramps at common. The card boasts a 2.5 point improvement when drawn, and is typically picked around pick five or six. It's very good in the decks that want it.

Portent Tracker pairs nicely with this aura. Generating seven mana on turn four can create a game-warping advantage if we're able to capitalize. Additionally, Phyrexian synergies are in four of the five colors. These two cards let us cast our spells while leaving mana to flip over our Incubators.

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UW Knights is the premier aggro deck in the format, and its best play on turn two is Swordsworn Cavalier. It might be the most important common in UW Knights. With first strike activated, it's basically unblockable until the mid-game. Additionally, it has very powerful interactions with some of the Multiverse Legends.

Knights decks seeking early plays shouldn't wait to grab Swordsworn Cavalier. In UW Knights, this card has the second-highest Opening Hand Win Rate amongst commons (a scintillating 61.7%), second only to Preening Champion.

When we're in UW Knights, we might be tempted by Realmbreaker's Grasp, Phyrexian Censor, or even a rare like Gyruda, Doom of Depths, but be cautious. Swordsworn Cavalier is important for the archetype and should be selected as such.

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While UW Knights wants to take an aggressive role, wars of attrition are more often the deciding factor in this format. As a result, Unseal the Necropolis is a powerful tool. It's going slightly before pick seven, so don't expect to see these on the wheel. If we know we need one, and we see it early, it might be time to bite the bullet. These double-Raise Dead effects can serve as strategy lynchpins. It would be a real shame if we missed out because we got greedy.

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This card gains value for each bomb we can recover with it. It can create powerful loops with Halo-Charged Skaab. Most importantly, it helps us power through the mid-game while accelerating us toward an ending. The symmetrical mill and instant speed are huge additions to a generally powerful effect. Even getting back a pedestrian pair like Converter Beast and Nezumi Informant to nab a mysterious card from an opponent's hand can feel strong. We don't have to work hard to make this card a two-for-one, and with rares, it can feel much better than that.

Conversely, if we've already secured a couple of these effects, cards like Eyes of Gitaxias and Gift of Compleation should move down in our pick order accordingly. This card plays well with cards that are actually creatures, not just effects that create them. If we're building our decks poorly, we might find ourselves waiting for a second creature to die or hoping to spike one on the mill. That's the fail state for this card, but it's easily avoidable if we draft with it in mind.

March Onward!

This is a format of haymakers. Powerful rares and mythics sometimes dominate games, but timely removal spells and well-built decks can also balance the playing field. Synergies exist at the archetype level, but also within smaller deck-building decisions. By building our decks in a cohesive manner, and knowing the commons that facilitate our plan, we put ourselves in a position to win consistently. Even when we don't draw our game-breaking rares.

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Every time I venture back into this format, I feel like I'm discovering new synergies. Sometimes I'm eking out value with Nezumi Informant, and other times Halo Hopper snowballs into powerful convoke spells. Many of the overlooked cards can thrive in the right deck, which creates depth in an already beloved format. So don't be afraid to pick a card if you think it will work in your deck. You might just be a trailblazer, and there's no edge sharper than a fresh one.

April ’23 Metagame Analysis: Not Neck and Neck

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Modern has clearly moved towards stability since Modern Horizons 2 came out. The fact that the data for March and April look pretty similar confirms that conclusion. However, the data doesn't tell the full story. There's a lot more going on than the data conveys. Wednesday was about presenting the data; today's article is about explaining how the data happened and if it means anything.

The Song of Monkey and Archon

The headline data point in April was that 4-Color Creativity was #1 in paper and very nearly caught UR Murktide on Magic Online (MTGO). While Murktide has fallen in paper before, it was never by the extent it did in April and Creativity has never approached this mark online before.

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Some might take that to mean that there's change in the air and that Creativity is the new top deck in Modern. The data backs this up, but only if you just look at the numbers. The story of how that happened paints a very different picture. Murktide, and to a lesser extent Rhinos, had a more impressive month than Creativity, which ended up underperforming.

A Marathon, Not a Sprint

At the start of April, I'd have agreed with the above assessment. After the first week of April, Creativity was out ahead of all the other decks by a significant margin. If I recall correctly, it was up in the 20s in both paper and online while its closest competition was Temur Rhinos with around 10 results. Murktide was barely on the board with around five results apiece.


However, over the following weeks, a trend emerged. After a phenomenal opening weekend, Creativity fell away. It had shown up in force for several Challenges, but on MTGO Creativity just wasn't showing up in the Preliminaries. Murktide did, and just kept putting up results during the week and then placing a few into the Challenges. Rhinos was doing the same thing, but not to quite the same degree.


I record data every Friday, and after April 7, Creativity had a big lead on everything else. By April 14, that lead had halved. Rhinos was closing the gap and Murktide had caught Creativity. On April 21, Murktide caught Creativity online, with Rhinos not far behind. By April 28, Murktide was out in front by a good margin, leaving Rhinos behind. The last-minute surge over the weekend wasn't enough for Creativity to come back, even if Murktide hadn't had a compensating good Challenge as well.

Feast And Famine

I've never mentioned this before, but in my experience tracing the data, most results come in feast and famine cycles. A deck will have a really good weekend, disappear for some time, and then return. The length of the disappearance is often determinative for tier status. The power Tier 3 decks that don't show up on the population tier yet are at or near the top of average power ranking are the kings of this. They almost always have one phenomenal weekend and then completely disappear.

The decks that rise to the top of the metagame limit their famines. They often maximize the feast, but that's actually not required. Consistent results over the course of a month do far more to move a deck up the rankings than single events. This is where Murktide and to a lesser extent Rhinos and Hammer Time excel. They can have exceptional weeks, but even if they don't, they'll still put up decent numbers in smaller events over the week. Rhinos and Hammer still have true famine weeks, but Murktide's never been missing a whole week.

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Rakdos Scam and Creativity are big feasters but are also prone to famine. Especially online, they show up in large events in force but are often missing entirely during the week. When they feast, they gorge but the relative lack of consistency holds them back. Murktide is so consistent in putting up results that even when it starts behind (which is very rare) it's able to catch up thanks to its rivals having an off week. It just keeps on keeping on.

What About Paper?

This has been a consistent observation for me about MTGO's data. Paper is a different animal. The above-described effects were definitely happening in paper as well this month. However, Murktide and Rhinos didn't actually catch Creativity. In fact, Creativity maintained a fairly commanding lead all month.

This isn't something to read into. The MTGO data comes out in predictable intervals and produces a predictable number of events. Since Daybreak took over running the program, a minimum of three Challenges and seven Preliminaries will be posted every week. Frequently, there are more, but for the past few months never less.

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There's no predictability for paper results. Tournament Organizers don't have to schedule any Modern events in a month, nor report them in a timely fashion. I checked today, and there were a number of events from mid-to-late April that are just now being posted. The effect I saw on MTGO was happening in paper, however, the gaps in the data and lower total results yielded a different result. The metagame isn't at fault for the difference, unreliable reporting is, so don't read into the results.

The Implication

It makes sense that Murktide would pull ahead thanks to its consistency more than anything else. The deck is following the Turbo Xerox formula with many cantrips and a low land count. It has more velocity than any other deck which leads to consistent games. This consistency has translated into a very long run as Modern's most-played deck. Even if it's not the best-positioned deck, players know what to expect.

The cascade decks are similar thanks to effect redundancy, and Hammer Time has tutors. They don't have the smoothing depth that Murktide does, but they do have enough to keep up. Creativity and Scam are lacking in this area. They have some redundancy and smoothing, but it's to a lesser extent and at a higher cost than the other decks. Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki and Seasoned Pyromancer are powerful but aren't really smoothing cards like Consider, Mishra's Bauble, and Expressive Iteration. That's probably why Scam has been so volatile.

End Life Care

On the subject of challenging the top decks, what's going on with Living End? That's a genuine question, not remotely rhetorical. It was hot on the heels of the Big Five online, but just barely limped onto Tier 3 in paper. This followed a month where the deck was at the bottom of Tier 1 in both play mediums. Historically, the deck has been quite volatile, but it has never deviated from itself this much.


It's possible that paper's poor reporting is a factor. However, given how far from Tier 1 it is, that seems unlikely. It'd be one thing if there was a positive trend that got interrupted, but it was completely absent from the results. This points to an actual change in pilots and/or metagame positioning for the paper fall-off. However, I don't see enough deviation between paper and online play for positioning to be the reason.

The only distinct difference I can see is that graveyard hate was down slightly online. The various Urza's Saga decks stopped playing Soul Guide Lantern, either maindeck or sideboard, and alternative graveyard hate was also minimal. The paper decks didn't follow this strategy. Abnormal Endurance was as prevalent as it ever was, so this explanation seems weak but it's all I have.

Doctor's In

On a similar note, Yawgmoth made it back to Tier 1 online after missing in March. However, I wouldn't exactly call it good news for the deck. Its average points were so bad that it fell to Tier 2 on power and was tied for second worst performance for online decks. Not exactly a rousing success, especially when it was lower-mid Tier 3 in paper and underperformed against the baseline there, too.


While I don't know the ins and outs of its matchups, I do know that Yawgmoth has a reputation for beating Murktide. I'd guess that the high amount of play Yawgmoth saw was predicated on there being lots of Murktide to feed on. While there was a lot of Murktide out there, it wasn't to the extent of previous months, and therefore, the strategy didn't work out. There were too many other matchups out there.

Unfit Prime Time?

Something that the data article didn't show is that for the first time, Amulet of Vigor players are branching out. Rather than being all together on Amulet Titan, a few players got experimental. There were a few trying Aspiringspike's Door to Nothingness brew, and others trying other combos with Amulet. There was even one deck that was otherwise an unremarkable Amulet deck, except that it didn't play any Primeval Titans. That'd have positively been blasphemous before now.


You have to be an Amulet player to understand developments in Amulet Titan. However, the fact that the players are willing to experiment with what had been quite an orthodox deck is significant. It might mean that players are getting bored with the typical game plan, or it might also indicate that there are metagame concerns. Maybe Titan is finally getting pushed out? In any case, Amulet willingly changing itself without new cards is always something to watch.

Finance Corner

As always, I end in the Finance Corner. Here is where I gaze into the financial crystal ball to try and foresee the coming month of market trends. This month will leave many disappointed because I don't see much opportunity on the horizon.

There's no reason to think that the Big Five decks are going anywhere. Scam was quite weak in paper in April, but that's probably down to a lack of events. The deck has never shown up that much in local events but shines at the big events. I suspect there are social considerations/pressures at play. With fewer large events, Scam was down. It's still strong online, so it's not in danger of falling out of the metagame.


Consequently, there won't be a wild swing to drive upward price pressures for any deck. In fact, with all the reprints there continues to be gentle downward pressure on staple prices, with particular pressure on Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. Thus, this is a (weak) buyers' market rather than a seller's market. Plan accordingly.

Aftermarket Aftermath

While there is another set coming out in May, I don't think it will mean anything for the Modern market. March of the Machine: The Aftermath looks extremely underwhelming, particularly for older formats but I have to imagine it's not great for Standard, either. It's less a new set and more like EA-style downloadable content (DLC). It's content that was meant for the main game but got carved out for a microtransaction. I'm not impressed.

There are a few cards I have my eye on that might see niche play in Modern. However, emphasis on the niche, there. They might adjust a few matchups slightly, but there's nothing to completely revamp any deck. Thus, the financial and metagame impact should be muted.

A Modern Stabilized

There's nothing foreseeable that will cause any dramatic change in Modern anytime soon. With prices falling Wizards might choose to make bans in the near future, or they might continue to wait and watch, I can't know. What I do know is that Modern is fine for the moment and will continue to be fine in May. Not great, not bad, just fine.

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