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Reprints Made Legal by Magic 2015

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This is a pretty cool subgame we get to play every time a new set comes out: what cards are now legal in Modern?

Modern is, after all, my favorite format, and I like to keep an eye on its developments. So with that in mind, check out this chart.

All the cards now made legal in Modern.
All the cards now made legal in Modern.

There's probably nothing there that will make a splash, but I do think this is something worth calling attention to. After all, now your Defender deck has a new toy to play with! Anyway, if you don't at least keep an eye on it, you'll never know. Let's hope Khans has some better goodies.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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What Could Be a Hotter Topic Than Chandra, Pyromaster?

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Collectible is collectible.

When you summon the Exclusive San Diego Comic Con Chandra, nothing special happens. It costs the same amount of mana, it has the same loyalty and the same abilities. In fact, the only difference is that instead of looking like this,

 

It looks like this,

That's it. So why is the Comic Con Chandra worth so much more?

OK, that was more "Socratic method" than "I don't understand finance" because I'm trying to make a point. Rare and exclusive is valuable and worth having if you can get it. This was firmly in mind when I saw that Pop had released a line of Magic collectibles.

Probably not a much more prudent investment than those Beanie Babies your mother was going to retire off of. Still, they look cool, and they are Magic-themed. So what was that about exclusivity? Only this.

Hot Topic has an exclusive Chandra doll that they sell on their website and possibly in their stores that GLOWS IN THE DAMN DARK.

Are you impressed by stuff that glows in the dark? I'm not, but I don't buy action figures, either. Still, while I don't think the "buy sealed product" wisdom applies to these pop toys, if you are going to buy one, buy an exclusive Chandra that glows in the dark. That's a no-brainer.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: [MTGO] Online Perspectives on Core Set Mythics Like We’ve Never Seen Before

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The M15 spoilers list is out. There's no surprise the core set contains fifteen mythics, as usual.

Compared to all the other core set mythics, M15 mythics are unique. M15 mythics have the lowest number of reprints in any core sets, and I have hard time identifying the obvious junk mythic(s). On the top of that, add the fact that this year we'll have a Pro Tour M15  in Standard (the 2nd Standard Pro Tour this year) and you have a very unique situation for investors and speculators.

By comparing M15 mythics to previous core set mythics, particularly M12, M13 and M14 (the ones which we have an entire price history of on MtgGoldfish), I'll discuss today what could be the financial expectations from the M15 mythics.

13 New Prints, Only 2 Reprints

In M12 and M13, eight of the fifteen mythics were reprints, and in M14 four of fifteen mythics were reprints--Jace, Memory Adept having been printed twice before. In M15, only two mythics are reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana Vess

This is the fourth print of Liliana Vess and, considering the limited playability of this Planeswalker, it might considerably limit her value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Pyromaster

The other reprint is Chandra, Pyromaster, and she is arguably the best red Planeswalker to date. This version of Chandra has proven to be playable in Standard, Modern and Legacy. Sure, Thundermaw Hellkite could have been reprinted, but I'm pretty happy about Chandra, especially from a speculation point of view.

So, the mythic reprint side of M15 is pretty unique when compared the its predecessors. None of the reprints are an unplayable Serra Avatar, Time Reversal or Darksteel Forge.

See how lucky we are? These two Planeswalker have moderate (for Liliana) and high (for Chandra) chances to be played in competitive decks. I'm not the king of deck building, but it doesn't seem absurd to me to pack one or two Liliana Vess into Mono Black devotion and tutor for Gray Merchant of Asphodel or Pack Rat.

Where Are The Junk Mythics?

Since Magic is Magic, all sets of all time have had their share of good rares and junk rares, good mythics and junk mythics. Core sets are no exceptions. Since M10, all the core sets have had between two and five junk mythics among the fifteen.

What do I consider junk mythic? To me, a junk mythic is a mythic that is worth less than 1 tix within the first few weeks of release. The price of a junk mythic can go as low as 0.25 tix and will barely make it over 1 tix, only for redemption purposes. A junk mythic doesn't have any serious constructed applications--at best a feature in Travis Woo's brews. Often, a junk mythic doesn't even have any limited application either, and is barely playable in casual decks. Finally, a common trait of junk mythics is an overly expensive casting cost.

Based on these criteria, M14 was the worse core set ever with four true junk mythics: Devout Invocation, Windreader Sphinx, Ring of Three Wishes and Darksteel Forge. Rise of the Dark Realms and Scrouge of Valkas were also on the fence of being true junk mythics, with prices always around 1 tix and no constructed applications.

This being said, where are the junk mythics in M15?

To start with, there's no junk mythic reprint. No Time Reversal, no Darksteel Forge and not a Serra Avatar in sight. No obvious junk, such as Worldfire or Windreader Sphinx either. And no nine-mana sorcery that does crazy stuff.

Band of Losers?

What do we have in M15?

Six Planeswalkers. Four new and two reprints. Whether you like Jace, the Living Guildpact or not, no Planeswalker has ever been valued under 1.9 tix within the first weeks of release (among M12, M13 and M14 Planeswalkers, the only available on MtgGoldfish), new or reprints.

And for a new Planeswalker, the record low is held by Chandra, Pyromaster, which was at 5 tix two week after the release of M14. 5 tix that became 25 two months later...

The same reasoning is true for the other Planeswalkers of M15. Even if it is the fourth print of Liliana Vess, the margin between her and a junk mythic is still too large. I just don't see any of the M15 Planeswalkers being a junk, and I actually see a lot of speculative value in them. All of them.

Six Souls. These guys are not the new Titans, and they don't need to be. According to your preferences, you may or may not like them, or may only enjoy some of them. You may think that their abilities are uneven or not. Here again, I would be very cautious to form any judgment.

All of them seem very playable to me. Without any further deck building debates, I will only remind us that the PT Journey Into Nyx left us with a very 3-color midrange taste, where all colors had their share of the pie. Now we have 6/6 for 6 mana creatures that brew the coffee for you whether they are dead or alive. How sweet!

I have trouble seeing any one of these cards being priced at 0.5 tix. I'm not saying that they are all going to be a 10-tix mythics, but it's hard to imagine that any of these Souls is going to be a junk mythic.

A new Sliver lord. I don't see a lot of competitive applications for this, especially competing with Chromanticor in the five-color monster category. But for anything else, including speculations, this guy is all we need and will never be a junk mythic for sure.

Perilous Vault. Depending on your perspective, this is a better or a worse Oblivion Stone. Having a fair cost for a destructive effect, I think we are going to see this in Standard decks, and maybe in Modern. This is not a junk mythic for me.

So we are left with The Chain Veil. A very unique effect for a legendary artifact that should be casual hero and a potential competitive contender in the right deck. With actual potential, how could this be valued 0.5 tix in the first weeks?

… And that's it! To me, all fifteen mythics of M15 have competitive casting costs and effects that could see play in constructed decks or should be casual super stars. Without a doubt, the most potent set of core set mythics we have ever seen.

We all know that as good as these mythics are, however, not all of them are going to be played. It's also impossible for financial balance between individual cards and booster packs where all mythics are valued at 20 tix.

From a speculative stand point, though, it doesn't really matter after all. Here is what I think.

Financial Perspectives

Reprints in core sets generally offer great speculation opportunities. Based on the observations I made while doing my experiment with the M14 mythics, reprints are almost always under estimated and under priced. This effect may even be accentuated when a mythic appears in two (or three) consecutive core sets and/or didn't perform well during its first season in Standard.

For instance, Ajani, Caller of the Pride and Liliana of the Dark Realms ] didn't leave a great impression after their M13 era. Their starting prices in M13 were 10  tix and 7 tix respectively. In M14, they started much lower at around 2.5 tix for both, allowing for much more amplitude between that starting price and potential highest. While Liliana doubled at its best, Ajani quadrupled!

 

Garruk, Primal Hunter is also another great example. First printed in M12, this version of Garruk more than doubled (+116%) right after Innistrad's release, from 11.2 tix to 25.5 tix. Reprinted in M13, Garruk, Primal hunter started this time around 4 tix to reach about 20 tix the next spring. A 400% increase this time around!

 

I believe that Chandra, Pyromaster and Liliana Vess will start rather low, and should therefore hold good value as we are heading to a new Standard season. Chandra is still a great Planeswalker and I don't see why she could not reach 20 tix again, especially being potentially playable in Modern and Legacy.

I think she may be valued as low as 3 tix in the beginning, especially if nothing puts her under the spotlight at the Pro Tour.

As for Liliana, with a fourth print, she might be the first Planeswalker to touch 1 tix during the first week.

Being new, the other Planeswalkers should be priced between 6 and 10 tix. M13 Ajani, Caller of the Pride was the only Planeswalker that clearly decreased in value during its Standard era. I expect the four first print Planeswalkers to increase in value at some point this year.

The six souls look promising and playable to me. However, I can imagine that for metagame reasons, one or more of them won't be played a lot. I would make sure that they hit a solid bottom before buying some. A bottom usually occurs within the two first weeks after release. If a Soul sees no play at all, it could reach a price close to a junk mythic by being priced under 1 tix.

With no real junk mythics at first sight, I think prices will be less spread out than any other core set. And if more mythics than usual have their shot in a constructed competitive format, I suspect metagame changes will create more rises and falls in price with those mythics.

This scenario sounds rather good to me, as any of my speculations may have a shot someday in our next Standard format. The goal being to make sure you sell these mythics after their spike and not expecting them to hit 30 tix.

Regarding the benefits of selling early whenever you see some profit, see my last article.

Evolving the Strategy

Pro Tour M15 being in Standard right after the online release will make things slightly different from M14. Using the buy all the mythics strategy will be more challenging, as the few mythics that are going to be played at the Pro Tour are going to be artificially high online. The strategy was initially to buy everything two weeks after the release of the set, but it's no longer applicable as is.

I will keep using this strategy for every mythic that doesn't see play at the Pro Tour, hopefully Chandra, Pyromaster and Liliana Vess will be among them. As reprints, I have great speculative expectations for them.

I will keep an eye on cards that may behave like junks, with low prices from the beginning, no play at the Pro Tour and a constant decrease approaching 1 tix or less. For these mythics, I'll wait longer and make sure they hit their bottom before buying.

For mythics that are going to be played at the Pro Tour, they are likely to behave like Master of Waves, Thassa, God of the Sea or Polukranos, World Eater--a big spike and one more month to stabilize. I will not touch these cards at all and I'll probably wait to Khans of Tarkir release events to buy some.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master of Waves

All of this may also depend on a how the MTGO community reacts. I'm particularly curious to see how speculations will work out, knowing that our current Standard format is on the loose and waiting for rotation. How many people are going to go bananas on M15 mythics that are playable in Standard decks for only two more months?

Finally, in October, the Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir will be played in Standard (again!).  This will be a first big occasion to sell your M15 mythics specs. As we have seen last year with the Pro Tour Theros, many M14 mythics hit their first and/or only peak at that point.

Make sure to take the opportunity to sell, especially the cards that see an increase in value but are not showing any play at the Pro Tour.

Overall, I'm pretty excited about this mythic crop. Diversified and playable mythics offer many opportunities to yield positive returns over many investments.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Lame Ducks

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It's been a crazy day on Twitter. As I'm writing this, it's Monday.

You're probably all like "What? Today wasn't a crazy day on Twitter," because for you reading this, its' Tuesday and also because it's probably never that crazy a day for you on Twitter because you've managed to avoid giving yourself a reputation as someone who answers random finance questions. Good on you; that's a smart decision. Just fly under that radar. Just keep on a flyin' under that radar.

The hell was I talking about?

Oh! Right! Twitter. Yeah, Twitter was bananas today. First of all, I got Corbin blowing up my feed with his shenanigans. Apparently he decided to clean out a closet and found a ton of value he didn't even remember he had. This guy even makes money by accident.

Say what you want about the slightly racist, natural disaster-prone, country music-loving, state of Oklahoma that fun passes by on a regular basis, there's money to be made down there Magic card-wise. Corbin's arrangement with his LGS selling and buying singles for the store has surpassed my own arrangement given his total lack of credible competition.

Any time he cleans out a closet he finds money he was too busy to even claim, and he just decides to sandwich it in boxes of bulk like he's trying to smuggle it through customs. If you're not inclined to slog through a bunch of Twitter posts where people congratulate him for being disorganized, you can read about his exploits on the free side.

Additionally, we got an announcement today that seemed to pants a lot of people's specs. The new "Clash Pack" which is basically one Event deck's worth of value spread over two decks. These will alternate each set, with an Event deck slated for Khans of Tarkir, another Clash Pack (maybe) for the set after that and so on until we figure out the pattern and they decide to feed us more curveballs.

I wrote about implications a bit on the free side and since I literally just got done writing it, I'm not inclined to retread it. I think it's info everyone needs to know for the upcoming, post-rotation world. But the last set that won't force a rotation is coming out soon and it is going to create a weird sort of twilight few months where Standard is going to be pretty bonkers.

Lame Ducks Abound

10 weeks is an odd amount of time. We have M14 and M15 both legal until Khans of Tarkir comes out in September. This is a very exciting time to build decks but people aren't super enthusiastic about buying single for speculation purposes and people who are starting to get a bit savvier about when to dump stuff before rotation may have already dumped cards that will be exciting in the interim.

We end up with a sort of lame duck format where we'll see SCG open Top 8s with a new, off-the-wall deck that uses M14 and M15 cards to make a brand new strategy and seven copies of Mono-Black or Mono-Blue control.

Still, if that wacky deck captures players' imaginations, is there money to be made on "lame duck" cards that are about to rotate? Is there money to be made short-term on cards in M15 that contribute to those strategies that will fall in price when the M14 cards rotate and the deck goes away? I have seen a few rumblings online and I have a few decks that we should look at to see what we should do.

Hurting What's In Use Now

Burning Earth

Go ahead. Play painlands.

Some of the only decks ready to slot in painlands are the G/b variants. They have taken to running a Golgari Guildgate or two, even in a post-Temple of Malady world. They are likely going to be receptive to Llanowar Wastes and I am receptive to punishing them.

This could make things rough on the Thoughtseize and Underworld Connections deck. I don't expect Burning Earth to go up much in price, but it may, a bit, and at the least it should stabilize so you can out them for retail rather than a panicked, last-minute Hail Mary pass to a buylist.

Helping What Could See More Play

Untitled

Naya Hexproof is a good deck, but not a great one. However, it's a fun deck to play, and with M14 and M15 combined giving it goodies, it may just have enough reach to be truly great.

Spectra Ward will likely replace the Holy Mantle in the board, and may even be good enough to maindeck. Spectra Ward promises to be a bit undervalued at first and I like these long-term for EDH. Look at a card like Spirit Mantle with multiple printings and you can start to glimpse some of the potential of Spectra Ward in a deck like Bruna, Light of Alabaster or Uril, the Miststalker.

Ward is a great tool for the Naya Hexproof deck and could really help it grow legs. However, it's expensive and I don't expect it to have quite as much of an impact as something else.

While this isn't better than Madcap Skills and won't make you reduce the number of those that you run, this card gives you something you need, which is reach. You'll likely pop it to hit the number 20 you're fighting against, but you may remove one of their creatures a non-zero number of times. This is bound to get tested, and that should rekindle enthusiasm for the Hexproof deck.

Mana wasn't an issue before, but let's not pretend this won't get jammed in the deck. Its existence isn't going to be the reason Hexproof is played against, but it is a tool, and the deck with the most new tools has an advantage.

However, Naya Hexproof has an Achilles' Heel, and a reprint in M15 may smother this deck in the cradle.

This is rough for Naya Hexproof to deal with, to be sure.

Meathooks

Slivers have always been a favorite, and we will have a brief window to make them work.

Galerider Sliver

Galerider Sliver likely gets a bump from the mere mention of a working Slivers list. It's already seeing play as a one-of in certain Mono-Blue lists because flying Mutavault wins the damage race. Speaking of which...

Mutavault

We're already predicting a price Holocaust for the 'vault. Luckily it's going to get played until the second it rotates, and its mere existence makes the Slivers deck look more likely.

This is a $4 pre-order. I hope that means we can get foils under $10. I really like foils of this for under $10, but they are such a likely candidate for a reprint it isn't funny.

Bonescythe Sliver

I like these long-term and a sliver deck becoming a thing can help concentrate these. These are in binders and bulk boxes and very spread out. A deck that needs them, even for a month or two, can help get them out of the woodwork and into trade binders where you can scoop them more easily.

These are so cheap right now, and rotation will make them even cheaper. If you don't want to sit on these, a sliver deck could renew interest and help you get out.

This is going to drive a lot of interest in Slivers in general. Every time they print something like this, there is a sliver renaissance. Do you trade with casual players? If you do, this will help you get out of sliver cards you don't want. I think this has long-term viability since it's a good general, albeit a budget one. This could help a Sliver deck in Standard grow the beard for sure.

I haven't seen this get discussed much, but I think this should be in any Standard Slivers deck. Tools like this make people brew and when people brew, you can make some money.

A successful slivers deck will buoy a few key cards.

This is obviously quite good in a Slivers deck. If we do start to see some serious builds online, this card is an automatic four-of. I am sure other Standard decks will emerge that use this, but this is so obvious in Slivers that we could see a reversal in the downward price trend. I'd get these now if you want to play with them.

Mana Confluence

The ultimate painland. Slivers jams this if it comes about, and if multi-colored decks are the new normal, this could have some real upside. The price it's at currently is in a world where the best decks are mono-colored. With shocklands gone and temples and painlands fixing mana, Confluence could go up as precipitously as I expect Nykthos is going to tank.

Can anyone else just not wait for a cheap Nykthos?

Losing All of Its Tools

Mono-Black Control is a deck with a ton to lose. When Khans comes along, it's getting wiped out. Grey Merchant is a fine card, but without Pack Rat, Underworld Connections and Nightveil Specter the deck is poised to lose a lot of the impetus to play Mono-Black. So what cards that aren't rotating are people going to back away from?

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is going to be a big loser. The monochromatic decks are going to lose a ton of tools and aren't poised to be real contenders after rotation unless we get a lot of solid mono-colored stuff from Khans, which seems unlikely.

EDH and casual as well as fringe decks in Modern will keep this card from going to crap completely, and Mono-Black and Mono-Blue aren't jamming this as a four-of under the best conditions, but this has a lot to lose. Remember, this is also printed in the Clash Pack. All of this is going to make it a very, very cheap card. I like these very long-term, but short-term I'm distancing myself from this card as much as possible.

This card is good a lot of places, but I don't know that Standard is one of them. Mind Rot plus Thoughtseize could make this a decent build-around, but price data for Waste Not is not encouraging and it hasn't even been opened in any packs, yet.

Untitled
More like "Want Not."

This is nuts in EDH decks like Nath of the Gilt-Leaf but I don't know that it will impact Standard as much as people would like. People have had longer to brew with this card than with any other M15 card by virute of it having been spoiled months ago to announce the new anti-counterfeiting bling and new border. I haven't seen anything that is particularly compelling.

I think Waste Not's price initially was heavily predicated on Jund and mono-black type decks being the new norm. Two things, though. First, I don't think there is room for this card that does nothing on its own in those decks. Secondly, I don't think they'll survive rotation. Thoughtseize will survive rotation, but will we want to be all-in on it to the extent that we play Waste Not?

I think this card is on its way down, and if you pack these, I would ship them immediately. I don't think it's a bulk rare, but we'll need a deck built around it to even justify including it and I haven't seen anything online.

The good thing is that it will take so long to dial in a deck built around it that we will likely have time to dump these and potentially pick them back up. I am staying away from them, personally.

The Less Obvious

What new decks will Khans of Tarkir make possible? It's not all that clear to me, but what is clear is that cards that are very powerful in a vacuum are the first to build around.

Prophet of Kruphix

This card is so good that people want it banned in EDH. Is the Clash Pack a harbinger of good blue-green things coming in Khans? Yavimaya Coast and Temple of Mystery sure don't hurt. I don't know that this is going to see Standard play, but I think it's powerful as hell and powerful cards need a second look.

Sylvan Caryatid

I think we'll be leaning on this guy more than ever coming up. He's expensive, but Courser of Kruphix seems to dictate the ceiling for in-print non-mythics and this isn't there yet. I don't think it can ever get as high as Courser did at its peak, but I think there is upside. We're about to be playing multicolored decks, I think, and this card's success was never tied to a particular deck or strategy the way a card like Nykthos was. I am bullish on mana fixing that doesn't deal you damage going forward.

It's important to keep rotation in mind, but I think it's also worth taking a look at the odd period right before the next rotation, where we get a brief, magical Christmasland format with more slivers than any core set can handle on its own. Let's make this "lame duck" period anything but lame.

Advice for starting up a new MTG group?

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So one of the things that's always pretty close to my heart is people teaching new players to Magic with the rest of us. After all, we were all new once, and if not for some generous people when I started there's no way I'd be where I am today.

With that said, I want to highlight one of these causes that was recently shared to Reddit by user /s4svendetta. They've been working to teach students how to play, and I think it's a cause worth sharing.

Hello, I am a teacher, and am starting a MTG club at my school. I'm new to the game myself, only been playing casually for a year. I really like the idea of using MTG to help give authenticity to basic facts knowledge and even reading comprehension.

If you haven't seen the full post, you can find it here. I'm sure they'd appreciate all the advice you can share.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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This Week on Insider: June 30th – July 5th

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Last week was big for subscribers to our Insider service. We've got all of these articles posted in full for our Insiders. We've got a great recap below for any articles you might have missed (or ones that may sound interesting enough to consider Insider).

Sylvain Lehoux - Nine Months of Portfolio Management-Opportunity Cost & Opportunity Benefit

You can't buy every spec - sooner or later, you run out of tix or time. Sylvain tackles this problem by asking you questions about what you need to get from your speculation. How long can you hold it? What I liked about this was Sylvain's honesty with his own experiences. People often talk about their big scores, but it takes a lot of humility to post about the two times he should have sold Obezdat (and then back it up with graphs.)

In the end, Sylvain shows you how he made an 89% profit from knowing when to sell at the right time - and reinforces a powerful lesson about selling when you've made what you need to.


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David Schumann - Rotation Picks (Gatecrash & Dragon's Maze)

David brings us a host of pick-ups for Ravnica rotation. In addition to the standard discussion of what to value Shocklands at, he dips into the Commander highlights and obscure cards with potential. He's taking a particular view with what these cards sell to stores for at buylist prices. For example, here's one Commander standout:

Merciless Eviction - This card is criminally underplayed in EDH (primarily, I believe, because many casual players don’t like exiling their own stuff), but flexible sweepers are powerful and exiling in EDH is huge. Its biggest problem may be that its color combination is so good at recursion and exiling its own targets is a non-bo.

These currently buylist for around $0.25 and given that almost all the demand is casual, I expect this one to stay like that. Barring any reprint this could probably be a $2 card in a year or two.

Though some Ravnica-block all star cards won't see much of a dip after rotation, most will take a significant price hit - especially the casual cards. David's got a guide for you to pick these up cheaply for long-term specs.


>Read More...


Alexander Carl - Unlocked Interview with Paul Nemeth, MTGO Constructed Player of the Year

Paul Nemeth is Quiet Speculation's wunderkind, a brilliant chess player and Magic Online superstar. I loved this interview because Paul's honest, no-ego personality shines through. He's inspirational in the fact that he only started Magic three years ago and has seen considerable success since then.

Paul is also confessional about how to make money (and save it) playing MTGO. He offers this advice on playing:

For almost every player in almost every format, when you join a draft you are paying money to have fun. Don’t join a draft because you might open a chase mythic and make a profit. Don’t join a draft because you lost the last one and want to win your money back.

 

>Read More...


Ryan Overturf - Early Thoughts on Magic 2015

Ryan digs deep into M15 for a Standard-focused set review. Hushwing Gryff is sure to do serious work in Modern, but Ryan shows us several reaasons why it can carry water in Standard. Inferno Fists can make the smallest dorks in Boss Sligh into serious attackers and Stoke the Flames might be the Fireblast we're looking for.

Ryan also evaluates the uncommon cycle of creatures that look for a different land type in play. With the shocklands rotating out soon, these lose a lot of their value.

One added benefit of Ryan's article is a robust discussion in the comments thread about his choices. Sometimes, a QS article will generate another article-length reply thread and this is one of those times.


>Read More...


Sigmund Ausfresser - How To Take Difficult Losses

Sigmund reflects further on what the Modern season has done for card prices - or rather, what it has not done for them. The prices have not seen much appreciation, causing Sig to conclude that the cards may have been overbought in the first place. That is, there's not enough demand to push them up any higher than they were at. Sig also has dire warnings for holding onto Modern staples in light of the reprint-happy M15:

As a player, I’m thankful for these reprints, but, as an MTG Speculator, this means danger. Holding Modern staples through to 2015 in the hopes of moving them at a higher price carries tremendous reprint risk and opportunity cost.

There's a great synergy here with Sylvain's article above - Sig discusses when to cut your losses and sell. Both players lost out on some speculations (it happens sometimes) and reading both of these articles will help you use your logical brain, not your emotional brain, to buy and sell effectively. If you're not an Insider, you're missing the valuable "Sig Bits" at the end of each column - a place where Sig puts quick and loaded thoughts on Magic Finance. Here's one from this week:

  • I buy listed my Birthing Pods at GP Cincinnati this year for around $12 each. Now Star City Games has 64 total copies in stock with a NM price of $11.99. Quite the drop.


>Read More...



Jason Alt - The Curious Case of Impending Reprints - Edited

Jason looks at that perennial question - should you hold or sell in the face of impending reprints? He tackles Thoughtseize, Chord of Calling and Shivan Reef. What caused the first two to plummet in price, while the last one shot up to double the value.

Jason also confronts how individual sellers on TCGPlayer have made card prices stickier - they don't drop so reliably after spikes. This poses big problems for Magic players who rely on market corrections to buy cards at sane prices. It means that we're left with Ebay Auctions as the only reliable downward-pressing force, and that's a dwindling market on its own.


>Read More...


Mike Lanigan - Green with Envy in M15

Mike is in full brew mode here, looking at Nissa from every angle to see the best deck for her. She creates a lot of mana, but what do you spend it on? Mike goes through the panoply of X spells and fatties to shovel all of that mana into.

M15 is going to start people on another round of brewing. Often, the most exciting time in a format is the first few weeks, when people are testing fun things and nobody has really figured out the best decks just yet. With Boss Sligh in the metagame right now, though, creativity might end up getting punished by a load of tiny red dudes. Time will tell!


>Read More...


Adam Yurchick - The Best Modern Deck You Aren't Playing

Adam dives right into Golgari Rock, highlighting why the deck is so well positioned versus the format dominating Birthing Pod decks. These decks jam Treetop Village and Fulminator Mage to attack lands and attack with lands. They present a machine-like inevitability. They rip apart your hand, then land an efficient creature or Planeswalker to close out the game.

Adam's article inspired Paul Nemeth to take a swing at BG Rock and record a video series for QS, which should be up this week!

>Read More...


Corbin Hosler - Tales from the Floor - GP Washington DC

Who would have known that Polluted Delta was binder trash for dealers? Corbin explains what surprised him about trading on the floor of GP:DC and the lack of interest in Onslaught lands was one of them. Corbin explains why dealers are so loath to pick them up - everyone is fearing a reprint in the fall set.

Also, is the era of buylisting at Grands Prix over? Corbin makes the case that sitting comfortably at home will get you the same prices you'd get at a Grand Prix.


>Read More...


Dylan Beckham - Circling the Wagons

Wizards used to be a company that could control nearly all of the consumption of its product. It made Magic cards and held the only relevant Magic events. It dictated the winning stories and built careers. Now, Wizards is losing tremendous amounts of power. The company has no power over SCG events, which gave life (and value) to Legacy cards. It sat by and watched an explosion in Commander, only stepping into it after the format had been riotously popular for four years. Magic has been propelled stratospherically, but the control that Wizards has over how you play the game is at an all-time low.

I liked Dylan's article - he highlighted some truths that I had never considered before. However, it felt like I got half an article - I wanted to read so much more about how this information should be applied! Let's hope we get a follow-on article soon.

>Read More...

Insider "Pick of the Week"

Each week, Kelly and I pick an article from the Insider half that we liked the most. This week, it was Sylvain's article regarding opportunity cost. This is one of the hardest things for speculators to internalize - when to cash out your profits and go, and when to sell a bad spec. Sylvain shows us that even in spite of eating it on a few cards, you can make tremendous gains with your portfolio.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Posted in Free, Free Insider1 Comment on This Week on Insider: June 30th – July 5th

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A Pile of Broken Dreams and Busted Specs

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If you read my EDH column on Gathering Magic, you'll know I have a tendency toward Blue Green in EDH. It's my personal favorite color combination and I feel like it gives me the mix of card draw and ramp that can make games truly unfair very quickly. Maelstrom Wanderer and Riku of two Reflections are great generals and Prime Speaker Zegana and Deadeye Navigator are creatures I want to play in every single one of my decks.

You know what else I like to play? It's a card I have about 100 copies of and 20 more in foil.

Crap. Son of a crap.

This is an image from the new M15 clash pack.

Clash packs are a product I wasn't sure people would buy, but I'm no longer unsure. I'm sure I'm boned.

How could this get worse?

OK, now I'm 100% sure I'm boned. These will get bought up for sure.

So let's look at the clash pack from the perspective of someone who isn't me with my Prophets or Chris Lansdell with his pile of Fated Intervention.

Untitled

 

These are pretty good, actually. Very good. In addition to my specs on Temple and Prophet getting their pants pulled down, the clash packs contain a Courser of Kruphix, a Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and M15 rares Aetherspouts and Genesis Hydra, smothering potential specs in the cradle.

Will these sell well? I think they might. I'm certainly going to be forced to buy some to upgrade a few of my Prophets of Kruphix, and since there is likely nearly enough value in there to make up the difference, once I sell, I should pay very little for the cards I want. Courser is due for a big plunge, something I'm sure they wanted. If you have Coursers, buylist them today. Nykthos will take a hit, but since that was a long-term spec most likely, a hit is a good thing. You don't have to buy in now, because they'll take a bigger hit at rotation.

The full decklists and accompanying article are on the Mothership.

Here's hoping the clash packs every other set don't bust too many specs and the Khans of Tarkir event deck is another one worth buying like they haven't been lately.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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This is Why You Double-Check Your Boxes

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So struck by some inspiration to clean and needing to add a few products to my closet of Sealed Magic goodies, I began to dig through my stuff last night.

It's always an interesting experience cleaning out your closet, and this was no exception. I found some cool stuff, some old spec piles like Master of the Pearl Trident, some other small picks and even a Sealed box of Dragon's Maze. Pretty cool stuff, so I figured while I'm on a roll (and listening to George Strait at 3 a.m.), why not just get rid of all this bulk I have? After all, I've long since passed the point where I'm going to dig through my collection to try and find a specific card or some new inspiration, so what were these cards doing besides taking up space?

Now, I remember picking through these boxes several years and pulling out any "money" cards I could find, even if that was just a buck or so. But I thought I would flip through them quickly anyway just to see if there's anything new that's cropped up since then. I started off small, finding a Relentless Rats and a small pile of Expedition Maps, but nothing major.

Until I saw this.

It's not every day you find this laying around.
It's not every day you find this laying around.

What. The. Heck.

I have no idea how this pile of cards made it to where it was, sitting in the middle of a 1k-row box with bulk commons on either side of it. There's easily a few hundred dollars there, and I have absolutely no idea how it ended up where it was, but dang am I glad I took a few hours to look through everything rather than just assume it was bulk and move it to the outgoing pile.

I think the lesson here is pretty clear. Even if you don't care about pulling out all the Spell Pierces and whatnot from your boxes, you never know what you might find. I'm pretty meticulous about my collection and the cards I buy for my store, and still somehow I had an error as big as this. Stuff happens, I guess.

I hope this PSA reaches everyone out there, and you don't make the same mistake I nearly did!

And if you have a few hours to kill, I highly suggest looking through your old cards. Nostalgia will ensure when you find an old draft deck.

Insider Video: Zwischenzug Cube Draft #3

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Last weeks winner for the VMA booster is M Leshrac. Please get in touch with me so I can give you your prize. Paul Nemeth on the QS Forums, paulanemeth@gmail.com, or Zwischenzug on Magic Online.

Congratulations M Leshrac!

Drafting & Deck Building

There was an error retrieving a chart for Garruk Relentless

Round 1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Round 2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Round 3

There was an error retrieving a chart for Supreme Verdict

Please leave a comment! I'm happy to discuss other lines of play, methods of managing the draft, or whatever else is on your mind.

Insider: Bear Market Territory

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I frequently write about how we can compare the stock market of Wall Street to the MTG Finance market. The same principals of supply and demand, cyclical behavior, emotional influences, overbought/oversold behavior, etc. can often be learned from Wall Street and reapplied to MTG Finance.

I’d like to introduce a new concept this week: A Bear Market.

According to Wikipedia, a “Bear Market” can be defined as

a general decline in the stock market over a period of time. It is a transition from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. According to The Vanguard Group, ‘While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period.’

MTG Finance’s Bear Market

The Modern card market officially fits the definition above, even though the definition itself isn’t official. Not only has euphoria over easy money in Modern turned into fear of reprints and price declines, many Modern staples have dropped more than that 20% threshold. Consider the powerhouse Snapcaster Mage, which is even played heavily in Legacy, as a grand example:

Snapcaster

Notice how the card peaked in value a couple months ago at $38 and is now trading at $30, a solid 21% decline? As I’ve written over the past couple weeks, this Modern trend is common across a wide variety of staples.

Colonnade

Birthing Pod

Many of these Modern staples, which once made speculators easy profit through 2012 and 2013, are now in a decline of 20% or more.

Sigmund’s Bear Market Corollary

As an active trader on Wall Street, I have developed my own definition of a “Bear Market”, although mine is more qualitative than quantitative. I consider a market to be a “Bear Market” when positive catalysts, which are supposed to drive prices higher, have no effect or a negative effect on prices.

The reason I adopt this definition is because it helps me identify the overall sentiment of the market without having to track specific numbers. Generally, when people are pessimistic about the market, this is reflected when even positive market data can’t drive the market upwards.

It just so happens that in the MTG Finance world there are now two catalysts which should be driving the Modern market higher: Modern PTQ season and SCG’s recent announcement of Modern support. Despite these occurrences, the Modern market continues its decline. This is a pure indicator to me that we’re truly in a Bear Market.

Okay, You’ve Scared Me Enough. What Should I Do?

I, unfortunately, don’t have a definitive answer for you, but I’ll gladly share my thought process and my own decision.

I’d encourage you to consider your goals and strategies in order to determine whether following my lead is appropriate or if you want to adopt a different approach.

As I see it, there are two options.

On the one hand, perhaps this Bear Market has reached a 20% correction point and will finally settle down. Once value seekers – those looking to acquire cards recently discounted by market trends but with positive long-term fundamentals – start buying up copies of Snapcaster Mages and Birthing Pods, then the Bear Market could end. This is a possibility any time there is a rapid rise in prices followed by that 20% decline. People who missed the first price spike get their second chance to buy into their favorite targets, and this speculation buoys the market.

On the other hand, prices can always drop further. One phrase that always makes me chuckle sounds something like “it’s already dropped so much, it can’t drop much further”. A card’s price can always drop further. Take it from this guy, who bought a couple dozen copies of Scavenging Ooze when they were initially reprinted in Magic 2014. I saw a decline of over 50% and I started acquiring. Now I’m left with 20 Oozes and a terrible loss.

Ooze

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

As always, I remind readers I am generally risk-averse when it comes to MTG Finance. I don’t like the concept of losing hard-earned money, especially when this money is pegged for my son’s college education. Therefore I am taking the conservative approach and cutting positions back significantly. This could be the 100% wrong decision, mind you. Plenty of people will be acquiring aggressively, thinking this market weakness reflects opportunity to buy and not panic. They will be greedy when others are fearful.

You know what? I don’t care about those people. I know prices can decline further – in fact, I strongly believe they will. PTQ season will end and demand may even drop further. Fear of a Modern Masters II set can further reduce prices. Other than the 75 cards I use to play Modern with week to week, I have very little need for other Modern staples.

What was once a slam-dunk investment for easy growth has become a toxic position carrying significant risk. I’m selling accordingly.

What I’m Moving

In list form, here are some of the cards I’ve decided to move out of fear of further price declines and increased risk of reprint:

  1. My Scars of Mirrodin Fast Lands – I felt these would get a nice bump this year and my thesis did not pan out. I could not develop another thesis that encouraged holding onto this position, so these are gone for a small gain thanks solely to Razorverge Thicket.
  2. My non-blue Man Lands – Stirring Wildwood, Raging Ravine and Inkmoth Nexus are all gone. They aren’t getting any price support this Modern season and the risk of reprint outweighs any slow, long-term gains.
  3. Restoration Angels – This card was supposed to be played more than Tarmogoyf in Modern, yet it has been largely unimpressive price-wise. Quick profit was achievable buying when this card left Standard, but the peak wasn’t nearly as impressive as I would have hoped and the trend is downward now.
  4. Other smaller sales I’ve made include Phyrexian Revoker and Chord of Calling, for obvious reasons.

Much of my Modern position was fortunately already liquidated during GP Cincinnati so I don’t have much left to move. I’m still sitting on a playset of Snapcaster Mages, which I hope will get some price support thanks to its ubiquity in Legacy. I also have a few Glimmervoids, Cavern of Souls, and Gemstone Mines, which I hope will dodge reprint and get some price support very soon.

I maintain my hold rating on these cards, along with Foil Shock Lands.

Speaking of Shock Lands, what is to be done about these mana-fixing Modern staples?! It’s pretty obvious what finance mind Nick Becvar thinks:

Tweet
Tweet2

Nick’s right: Shock Lands have been dipping. Pressure from Standard rotation is imminent and this will knock prices down by a couple bucks.
Godless Shrine

There was an error retrieving a chart for Godless Shrine

Is the answer here a flat out liquidation? I have no clue. I am sitting on nearly 100 non-foil Shock Lands and I can’t help but wonder if a rapid liquidation here is merited. These do have room to drop 15-20% before hitting their bottoms, and it may be nice to avoid riding this downward trend. Once again, this money could be better served in a Bull Market where things are on the rise and not the Bear Market we are currently operating within.

Moving Forward

I’ll have a decision on Shock Lands by the end of this month. While I still believe in their long-term performance, I’ll admit that my original thesis on them has not pan out exactly as hoped. These were supposed to get support from the Modern explosion, the PTQ season and the departure of Innistrad block from Standard. These forces did have a small positive effect, but the downside of Standard departure is much too great.

Other sectors within MTG Finance have not been suffering as greatly. Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant prices remain near all time highs. Dual Lands have pulled back from their recent all-time highs, but they are not close to that 20% decline. As always, Vintage staples continue their rapid rise. Perhaps money is better spent in these formats.

It is also worth mentioning that, as Modern goes through a killer Bear Market, Wall Street has been experiencing an incredible Bull Market. Stocks were up about 25% last year and are up again around 8% this year.

S&P

That’s quite the inspiring chart, and I find myself retrospectively regretting not placing a bit more of my cash in stocks rather than Modern speculation. Making money on Wall Street has certainly been easier than in Modern cards over the last year, and it raises the question “am I doing it wrong?”

It’s certainly possible. Modern has been exploited heavily for its easy profitability and now reality is setting in. Reserved List, Eternal staples once again become the blue chips of MTG investing.

Thus I present my new strategy going forward: significantly reduced Modern exposure, increased Wall Street investing, and a few pieces of Power. Even my Innistrad Booster Boxes represented undesired risk. Not because I fear significant downside, but because the opportunity cost of such a slow-growing investment is too large. I would much rather park the cash in a dividend stock paying 5% for easy compound growth. Shipping, handling and eBay fees are just too great to enable the easy profits I had expected out of the investment.

Lesson learned, and moving on.

But things are not all doom and gloom!

Sigbits

Outside of Modern, there are plenty of cards exhibiting growth.

  • Elspeth, Sun's Champion has bounced off her bottom and should have upside potential come Standard rotation. SCG has just a few copies in stock at $27.49.
  • Vintage Staple Mana Drain remains near its all-time high and SCG is still sold out with a price tag of $199.99.
  • Pact of Negation and Slaughter Pact have dodged this Modern Bear Market so far. Star City Games has just a couple non-foil copies of the zero mana counterspell in stock at $9.99, despite the Modern Masters reprint. Slaughter Pact is virtually sold out with a $4.99 price tag on Modern Masters copies. Both should be expected to move higher despite Modern’s lull.

Quick-hits Prerelease Primer

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I know there are all kinds of Prerelease Primers out there. We do financial ones on this site, the mothership does a larger one, there are competitive set reviews all over.

Nissa, Worldwaker
Coming this weekend to a LGS near you

But I wanted to highlight a particular one posted to Reddit by user Torakaa today. The reason I want to share it is because it's a fairly short, simplistic but still very helpful guide. If you're a new player heading to a prerelease this weekend, this is definitely something worth checking out first.

So, the Prerelease for the Magic 2015 Core Set is next weekend. Are you interested in picking up Magic, your friends are nagging you to go, want to return to Magic after a hiatus, or any other reason? Well you are in luck, for that is the event for you!

If you have any other questions not answered in this FAQ, feel free to ask.

What is the Prerelease?

It is a casual event made to cater to newer players. It is open to all players even if you have barely played Magic before. The atmosphere is made to be relaxed and players are encouraged (and often willing) to help out newer players. You can use the Wizards Store Locator to find a store near you. You will want to look for "Magic Prerelease - M15" in the store's event list. Make sure to get an idea of where and when the event will be; It never hurts to be a bit early. Obviously, if any of your friends play Magic, ask them where to go.

You can find the full post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Fourth of July, WoTC-style

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I know this isn't relevant to many of our foreign readers, but it is something I think those on this side of the ocean will appreciate.

As I'm sure you (may or may not) know, yesterday was the Fourth of July, aka Independence Day, aka "the day to explode things and watch Will Smith punch evil alien invaders in the face" day. Seeing as how this is "Murica," as Jason put it yesterday, it's a day all about national pride (while punching aliens).

Anyway, Wizards of the Coast decided to get in the game, and as a result we get this:

Magic meets 'Murica
Magic meets 'Murica

I think this mostly underlines just how awesome the community team at WOTC is. They're great at doing creative things like this to build goodwill among the player base.

Unless you live outside of the United States anyway. Then I guess you hope they remember come your national holiday.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Free1 Comment on Fourth of July, WoTC-style

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Insider: MTGO Celebrates 12 Years Without a Good Client

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It’s July, and we’re in a brave new world. In less than two weeks (July 16) the MTGO client we have all come to know and, well, tolerate, will be replaced with the Wide Beta. Brace yourself.

The future is here (ready or not...)

At the same time we have an awesome lineup of MTGO products coming our way. Vintage Masters drafts and sealed Check. Vintage and Legacy events that are firing with VMA payouts? Check. M15 Pre-release and Release events. Check. Magic Online 12th Anniversary Events? Whoa, didn’t see those coming—pretty sweet.

In other words, a great variety of exciting offerings adrift on a flawed platform. It reminds me a bit of that Carnival cruise ship that got stranded last year in the Caribbean. Tropical climate, all you can eat buffet, three decks with swimming pools and organized recreation…but no air conditioning, elevators, and toilets.

Yeah, that’s kinda what I’m expecting. (As an aside, if you haven’t read the brilliant David Foster Wallace essay, “A Supposedly Fun Thing I’ll Never Do Again,” I recommend checking it out.)

Great entertainment options, lousy platform.

We’ve discussed in the past what effect the v3 shutoff will have, but it’s worth mentioning again. The cards at the greatest risk are older cards with no link to the paper market. Anything still redeemable has a floor under it (and THS/BNG/JOU and RTR/GTC/DGM cards are pretty much near that floor anyway.) The riskier commodities are Modern and Legacy cards, which have recently seen a resurgence but could be on the wrong end of the stick if v4 is poorly received.

I wouldn’t rush to sell off your small items, but you may want to pare back some of your big ticket rares. I am keeping playsets of cards I am gaming with but have liquidated a lot of my excess Legacy and Vintage cards. Liquidity will be important since I expect some nice bargains during M15 release events.

Update on VMA Prices

Vintage Masters will be on sale in the store until September but until recently we did not know what types of Limited events would be offered. Wizards has been--and remains--noncommittal.

Initially, the only details on the release page noted that, "After the downtime on July 2, a selection of Limited Events will continue for a period of time. You'll be able to purchase Vintage Masters boosters until the release of Khans of Tarkir. There will also be Constructed Vintage events!” They said further details would be announced on Monday, June 9, but that announcement was clear as mud.

In my article last week I predicted the phase out of some of the on-demand events after July 2. Based on this possibility I argued that last weekend could be a good time to buy because the upside outweighed the downside. After all, VMA mythics and rares were at a new floor, and a reduction in on-demand drafts and sealed could create an upsurge in prices.

Well, it was been confirmed that VMA events will continue as usual, at least until the next downtime. That means VMA drafts will still fire and the Swiss Sealed queues will also be available. As a result, the floor has continued to drop--especially on the Power 9.

P9 prices have continued to fall this week.

Rares have dropped as well, and are now sitting at the lowest so far. Meanwhile, VMA will continue to be heavily opened for at least another week (and possibly indefinitely.)

What Does the Future Hold?

I still think they may consider shutting off on-demand VMA events during the M15 Pre-release and Release window, starting with the Modern Masters/Holiday Cube next week. It would be unprecedented to have MMA, Cube, VMA, and regular limited events plus the 12th Anniversary events, all firing at once.

A thread in the Classic Quarter noted a comment from an (unnamed) Wizards employee: "VMA events will continue through the holiday weekend. We haven't announced yet the end dates for all VMA events yet, but the Vintage events will be running through the weekend. : D"

If they temporarily shut off VMA on-demand events at the next downtime we should see a short-term bump in VMA prices. But in the meantime there will be continued downward pressure on all VMA cards, especially rares, as more and more packs get opened. We are not yet at the floor, and that "floor" may not occur until the v3 switchover--which could create a new floor for a wide variety of cards.

What to Do?

Last week I recommended buying some rares that had dropped to attractive prices on the possibility that the rate of VMA opens would slow. In the long run I think these will be fine specs, but in the short run prices will continue to drop. My apologies if you took a hit. It’s not clear whether we’ll get any benefit from selling now and rebuying since we need to cover the spread for it to be worthwhile.

I would be very careful about holding VMA cards at the moment. They will be under pressure both from continued opening and from the v3 switchover. Despite the attractive prices, I am not going to buy any new VMA cards until after the switchover.

Modern Masters Returns

We also have a week of Modern Masters coming. Every time MMA queues have been firing, it’s been a great opportunity to pick up Modern staples at a discount. These MMA drafts coincide with the v3 shutdown (and with a variety of other MTGO offerings) so it will be interesting to see how the market responds. Will people draft MMA? Will people sell off Modern if prices start to slide?

If prices drop, this will be a great chance to target some of the evergreen specs that make up the bread and butter of our speculation portfolio. Here are some cards I’ll be keeping a close eye on:

Modern Masters cards to watch

The best time to buy will probably be July 20th, after a heavy weekend of drafting.

12th Anniversary Events

[pullquote]Don’t rush out and sell your cards from these sets and then hope to rebuy[/pullquote]Did you notice something strange about the 12th Anniversary events announcement (other than references to egg nog in July)? Turns out the Sealed events are paying out in packs from the same sets, but no drafts are available to use that prize product.

I don’t know if this has ever been done before. Yes, you can use packs as entry for those sealed events, but there are only four of them per day.

What are people supposed to do with their excess prize packs? As we know, the value of these virtual packs is not based on the cards inside them but on their usability as entry in events. Everyone is going to be trying to unload these, so prices will plummet.

And most of these boosters weren’t worth much to begin with. (Note that booster prices for those sets may rise in the morning, but once prizes get issued they will fall steeply. Once those events are done, the boosters are basically worthless until the next flashback for that set rolls around.)

If for some reason you are holding boosters in these sets, ditch them now. And if you’d like to play, be sure to buy in via boosters rather than through tix.

Here is the event schedule. These are poor value because the prize packs will be stranded in your collection, but can still be a lot of fun:

7/2         3 Innistrad and 3 Dark Ascension booster packs.
7/3         2 Scars of Mirrodin, 2 Mirrodin Besieged, and 2 New Phyrexia booster packs.
7/4         6 Rize of the Eldrazi booster packs.
7/5         3 Zendikar and 3 Worldwake booster packs.
7/6         2 Shards of Alara, 2 Conflux, and 2 Alara Reborn booster packs.
7/7         3 Shadowmoor and 3 Eventide booster packs.
7/8         3 Lorwyn and 3 Morningtide booster packs.
7/9         2 Time Spiral, 2 Planar Chaos, and 2 Future Sight booster packs.
7/10       2 Ravnica, 2 Guildpact, and 2 Dissension booster packs.
7/11       2 Champions of Kamigawa, 2 Betrayers of Kamigawa, and 2 Saviors
7/12       2 Mirrodin, 2 Darksteel, and 2 Fifth Dawn booster packs.
7/13       2 Onslaught, 2 Legions, and 2 Scourge booster packs.
7/14       2 Odyssey, 2 Torment, and 2 Judgment booster packs.
7/15       2 Invasion, 2 Planeshift, and 2 Apocalypse booster packs.

Will these events drop the price of cards in these sets? These are “flashbacks” in name only, since they will provide an extremely limited quantity of new supply. This is not like when we have a week of drafting of these formats, so don’t rush out and sell your cards from these sets and then hope to rebuy. To give one example: Innistrad-Dark Ascension fired Wednesday and only led to a 2% drop in the ISD index and no decline in DKA index. These are not significant changes compared to regular market noise.

The Holiday Cube

The Holiday Cube returns on Wednesday, July 16 and runs until Friday, July 25. This is the powered Cube that allows you to do degenerate things. But the EV on Cube events is so bad that I’ll probably stay away—especially when there are so many other exciting opportunities. That said, even with the poor payouts the EV is probably less negative than drafting Vintage Masters...

A Winner for Our Contest

You'll recall that my June 15 article featured a contest to guess the price of a Black Lotus on July 1. It noted that, "For the purpose of this contest, the official price is the price listed on MTGGoldfish for July 1. Whoever is closest to that price will win. The winner will receive a pack of Vintage Masters from me and acclaim from your fellow speculators."

To the victor go the spoils...

According to MTGGoldfish, the price of a Black Lotus on July 1 was 224 tix. Which means our winner is none other than our very own Sylvain Lehoux. (Sylvain, contact me via chat or in the client to pick up your VMA pack. There's a nonzero chance it contains a Lotus.)

While the MTGGoldfish price put Lotus at 224, copies could be acquired that night for 20 tix lower over at Goatboats. So Chris gets an honorable mention on this one.

Since then prices have continued to drop, and seem to be headed toward the 140-150 tix that was picked out as our "wisdom of the crowd" number. Interesting... If it hits that price I will definitely be a buyer.

Until next week, enjoy the celebration and double check with your cruise director that the lavatories will be functional.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

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