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Real-world Flavor. Confucius and the Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Posted on December 29, 2021December 29, 2021 by Francesco Spagnol

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There is no calamity greater than lavish desires.
There is no greater guilt than discontentment.
And there is no greater disaster than greed.
Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching 46

Did you really think we were done dealing with short didactic sentences? The last one we saw was an excerpt from Seneca, at the end of the article on Latin quotations. Analyzing a collection of Middle-Eastern folk tales last week temporarily relieved us of that kind of witty sentence. One Thousand and One Nights has no room for hasty generalizations. As you can see, however, we're back to dealing with phrases that sound like proverbs.

What I like about this quotation from Lao Tzu is the fact that it's built as a climax. It's not necessarily what the author intended when he wrote it down, but it's for sure what happens when we read it on a Magic card. The card in question is called Greed, a black enchantment from Legends. It is one of only two cases of Magic cards with Chinese flavor text outside of Portal Three Kingdoms.

The text itself is a very typical case of tricolons, where three sentences with increasing relevance follow each other. We start with the greatest calamity, then pass to the greatest guilt, and finally arrive at the greatest disaster, which is exactly what gives name to the card: greed.

Portal Three Kingdoms

So, Greed is the first card in Magic to receive flavor text consisting of a quotation from a Chinese author. It was printed in Legends, and it surely must have been quite a novelty at that time. No other cards with this kind of reference were printed for five years. Then, in 1999 came the third starter-level set, Portal Three Kingdoms.

We mostly know Portal Three Kingdoms because it contains precious cards such as Imperial Seal and Ravages of War, but it was also a big thing if you consider flavor. In fact, it was the first set since Legends to reference specific people, places, and events from the real world. So, what about the other cards?

An Overview on Authors and Genres

There are five Chinese authors quoted in Magic: The Gathering. Let's take a look, in order of importance:

Luo Guanzhong (40)
Sun Tzu (5)
Lao Tzu (3)
Confucius (3)
Mencius (1)

When it comes to literary genres, the variety is not the same as we saw with classical authors. Neither is it as low as the one from Arabian Nights. It's somewhere in the middle. Luo Guanzhong’s quotes all come from his prose historical ﬁction, Romance of the Three Kingdoms, and thus mostly deal with warfare. Sun Tzu wrote a famous military treatise called The Art of War. The other three are closer to philosophical texts. Lao Tzu wrote a text called Tao Te Ching, and Confucius wrote the Analects. We also have a lone card referencing Mencius, from his homonymous work Mencius, another philosophical text.

Portal Three Kingdoms alone has 50 different cards with a real-world quotation, which is a record. And it gets even more impressive when you consider the fact that it’s quite a small set, with only 180 total cards. More than one in four cards contains a real-world quotation from an ancient Chinese author, either dealing with war or with philosophy. Now, let’s try and go into more detail, as far as the vastness of the corpus allows us.

The Chinese Zodiac

Let’s start with the most famous cycle, the one known as the “Chinese Zodiac”. There are twelve creatures, each representing one of the twelve animals from the Chinese Zodiac: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat, Monkey, Rooster, Dog, and Pig. They are all infamously mediocre creatures, typically with a land walk ability but unimpressive stats.

The most famous and expensive is Zodiac Dragon. It's also the only one without landwalk, and probably the most unplayable nowadays. It costs nine mana and is a quasi-vanilla 8/8. Its only ability is its chance to come back to your hand every time it dies.

What I find truly spot-on about this non-flying dragon, though, is the flavor text. "The kingdoms three are now the stuff of dream, / for men to ponder past all praise or blame". It's a couple of hendecasyllabic verses, a line of 11 syllables. It's also the ending of the whole poem. Endings are always meaningful, and coupling this creature with this quotation is a strong move.

I know this dragon is actually a bad card when it comes to its power level. However, Dragons are a huge thing in Magic (and fantasy in general), which is why I consider this choice favorably. Again, it's not about power level, but rather about lore and feeling.

Breaking Down the Corpus

Back to the full corpus, the first distinction I’d like to make is between quotations from a military context and those from a philosophical context. Romance of the Three Kingdoms is culturally significant the same way the Homeric poems are for western culture. As for the philosophical treatises, they are similar to western authors such as Plato or Seneca.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu is somewhere between a military book and a philosophical treatise. It certainly deals with matters of war, but at the same time, often sounds like a didactic book, a work of philosophy again. I consider it similar to The Prince by Machiavelli. Now, let's examine a triplet from Confucius’ Analects.

Confucius' Analects

Ambition's Cost

The first card is Ambition's Cost, a black sorcery that makes you draw cards in exchange for life. The text goes: “When you give offense to heaven, to whom can you pray?” Not that impressive. It’s just the usual stuff about black being the color of ambition (remember: “Greatness at any cost”), willing to pay anything for more knowledge and power. As for the quotation, it’s a plain rhetorical question, but still not bad in my opinion.

Barbarian General

The second is Barbarian General, a red creature whose text says: “Barbarian tribes with their rulers are inferior to Chinese states without them”. A 3/2 warrior for five mana, with the only plus being the ability Horsemanship. Not exactly a bargain, but still coherent with the average power level of this set, which was designed specifically for new players.

In this case, however, the card being so weak is actually a plus, since it's exactly what the text is saying. The card depicts a barbarian general, and the flavor text says he’s not impressive, which is true when you look at its stats and abilities. Good design.

Young Wei Recruits

The last one is Young Wei Recruits, a 2/2 black Soldier for two mana which is unable to block. The text explains how throwing young people into war without training is no different than sending them to slaughter: “To send the common people to war untrained is to throw them away”. A message that is quite easy to agree with, and it also goes well with a clearly untrained young soldier. He is unable to block and thus is probably going to die soon. Sad, but again a nice choice.

Conclusions

There are 52 cards with Chinese quotations as the flavor text. This article was mostly an overview of them. It might be too early to draw conclusions, but based on our overview of the cards, and the specific ones we analyzed in this installment, I'd say that most of the flavor quotes are close to the genre of maxim and proverb. The only exception we've looked at so far was the flavor text from Zodiac Dragon. We'll see in the course of the next installments whether this is because of its origin (a historical novel) or for other reasons.

In my opinion, this shows how the division of genres in any culture is largely geographical. There might be differences from one to the other, and there might be a particular tendency towards a genre or another. Nevertheless, in the end, we can expect to find pretty much the same stuff, no matter the culture we are looking at. We'll see in the next articles if this holds true.

Modern Banlist Watch List: 2022 Edition

Posted on December 29, 2021January 11, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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And so, another mediocre-at-best year comes to a close. Here's hoping that we finally see an upswing in 2022. Or at very least more large Modern paper events, seeing how Not-GP Las Vegas was successful. Aside from lack of coverage. Wizards has repeatedly claimed that there will be paper events and something approximating the Pro Tour again, so there's hope. But in the meantime, it's time to wrap the year in customary fashion by updating the Definitive Banning Watch list. Why is it definitive? Well, this is the fourth iteration of this list, which is more consistency than any other content creator. I haven't even seen another list put out this year. A default win!

Standard Disclaimer: I am not claiming that anything actually will be banned next year. Modern is quite healthy at the moment. There's really no emergency or urgency for any action. Of course, that doesn't mean anything can't happen, either. Wizards has a habit of surprising us with both the timing and scope of their bans. And there are reasons to be concerned for the direction the metagame is heading. Who really knows what's going to happen in 2022? However, based on what is actually happening right now, there are a few cards that could be axed in the forseeable future. And a couple others that might need to go in the more distant future.

2021 Recap

2021 was an unusual year ban-wise. It contained the highest number of bans in a very long time, but in a singular event. The same number of cards were banned in 2020, but it happened over the course of a year. The Uro ban was additionally unique in that a number of cards were banned that nobody really saw coming. The only card that was banned that made the 2021 watch list was Uro. I considered both Mythic Sanctuary and Field of the Dead, but given Wizards' usual strategy of banning the known problem then waiting and watching, I thought they were safe as long as Uro remained. Clearly, I was wrong.

I wasn't actually expecting Urza, Lord High Artificer to get banned. As noted then, it would take new printings to make Urza ban-worthy, and there were none. I am genuinely surprised that Lurrus of the Dream-Den survived. The gameplay and metagame considerations from last year have been joined by a prevalence problem.

The Criteria

There's no way to know exactly what, if anything, will get banned in 2022. Where once it was a simple case of violating the Turn 4 rule or general brokenness, Wizards has vastly expanded its scope and now bans more actively and for more reasons. I can't know what new cards will be printed, or if a new deck will finally be discovered. Furthermore, Wizards' exact criteria for banning a card is not known. They've never specifically said anything about how they consider banning a card, and with every ban, the exact reason changes. Over the past two years, the only consistent criteria has been a 55% non-mirror win rate. Which may or may not be an actual red line for banning, but even if it is, only Wizards has the data to make such a determination. Thus, players can't know if a ban is coming, making it the perfect metric to cite.

As a result, any speculation about what could get banned will necessarily be guesswork. The key: to turn the guesswork into an educated guesstimate. To that end, I have gone back through the Wizards announcements to see how they've justified their bans. There's always a primary reason, but it's often (not always) couched by ancillary reasons. The most common ones with examples are:

Generally broken. (Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis)
Enables brokenness. (Mox Opal, Bridge from Below)
Harms deck diversity. (Splinter Twin)
Homogenizes deck construction. (Oko, Thief of Crowns, Deathrite Shaman)
Creates problematic play patterns. Subcategorized between:
1. Encourages repetitive gameplay/gamestates. (Once Upon a Time)
2. Encourages unfun gameplay. (Mycosynth Lattice)
3. Metagame-warping. (Treasure Cruise, Arcum's Astrolabe
Complicates tournament logistics. (Sensei's Divining Top)
Constrains/threatens future design. (Birthing Pod)
Achieves a 55% non-mirror win rate. (Arcum's Astrolabe)

As the last one is impossible for me to know, I won't consider it. These are the most often cited reasons and should not be viewed as a comprehensive list.

My Approach

I'll be using the Wizards-stated reasons to inform my watch list. However, there will necessarily be a lot of intuition and speculation. I can't know how the future will play out, nor if Wizards will actually take action. Wizards certainly could have gone after Izzet Phoenix in 2019 for several of the listed reasons, but they never specifically targeted it. The best I or anyone can do is to see what the metagame data says about the format then look for key pressure points and gameplay trends and try to intuit how things could break.

Some key things to remember:

Wizards prefers to ban enablers or engines over payoffs
Bans should target the actual problem, not the symptoms of the problem
There is no hard threshold for what constitutes a problem
There is no way of knowing how decisively Wizards wants to intervene

The last point is new for this year and it's all thanks to the February ban. Wizards has historically preferred highly targeted bans for minimal format disruption. They dropped a bomb back in February, and that may or may not signal a policy change. There's no way to know, but it must be considered.

With the disclaimers out of the way, I see three potential fracturing points in the current meta which could be banned on their own merits. There are also two cards that might break if the right card(s) are printed in 2022.

Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Offenses: homogenizes deck construction; creates problematic play patterns (repetitive gameplay); constrains/threatens future design

I covered the broad issues with all the bannable cards last week. Lurrus is the most widely played creature in Modern despite seeing almost no maindeck play. In fact, the limited evidence available indicates that if Lurrus could only be played maindeck it would be a solid but not widely played card. It's the companion mechanic that's an actual problem. I think that if Wizards simply declared "No companions in Constructed" there'd be no need for bannings, but that's not how Wizards operates. And errata that extreme might create more problems than it solves.

Why Lurrus Won't Be Banned

Wizards was happy with Lurrus' gameplay in 2020 and 2021. They must be, or it would have been banned already. The only thing that's changing is how frequently it comes up. And there is a lot to like about Lurrus enabling grindy gameplay for low-curve decks, especially when Wizards does want players to play longer games.

How Lurrus Could Be Banned

There is also a lot to dislike about Lurrus forcing decks to keep their curve low and how constantly recurring threats leads to boring gameplay. The percentage of decks playing Lurrus may be down from its peak, but it remains higher than any other flagship card. Players grumble about Lurrus at roughly the same rate they praise it. Eventually, a tipping point may be reached where Wizards decides that based on player satisfaction, format prevalence, and/or win percentage, enough is enough and it's time for Lurrus to go.

Likelihood: Medium

I'd be surprised if Lurrus lasts another year in Modern. It's steadily overtaking alternative decks and is the key to Hammer Time (2021's best performing deck) remaining a metagame force. At some point, either the format must move away from this same gameplay being viable or Wizards will need to intervene. There's no immediate need, but I can easily see it happening. Especially given the next card.

Omnath, Locus of Creation

Offenses: General brokenness; harms deck diversity

I think that saying "A 4-Color Pile" card is more accurate, but I require myself to take a stand. It isn't that Omnath itself is the problem. The problem is that 4-Color Blink is absorbing all the space for midrange decks and even, increasingly, control. That's not exactly the fault of Omnath, but if anything should be targeted, it's the card that's been banned in other formats. Banning Wrenn and Six or Teferi, Time Raveler won't hurt enough to prevent a theoretical 4-Color takeover. Omnath is at once the glue holding Blink together, the grease that makes it work, and the primary incentive for being four whole colors in the first place. Solitude and Fury are much worse without Omnath around. And Omnath's abilities are just absurd on their own.

Why Omnath Won't Be Banned

It is way too early to definitively say that a problem exists. I'm nervous based on how the Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath played out. Uro homogonized all the midrange decks to be Uro decks, and towards the end they were all built around Uro, Field of the Dead, and Mystic Sanctuary. There are echoes of that in the 4-Color shell of Wrenn, Teferi, Omnath, and Prismatic Ending serving as a strong template for many decks.

However, December is the first month where any sign of convergence happened. December is always a weird month data-wise, and this could easily be an illusion or an MTGO quirk. Even if it is real, decks will naturally push towards certain directions and there's insufficient evidence that 4-Color is uniquely pushing anything out of viability. We need to wait and see. There's also the issue that Omnath has a lot of fans and playing all the good cards together is quite fun for many players.

How Omnath Could Be Banned

I could be right that Omnath decks are homogenizing Modern midrange. However, even if I am wrong, Omnath might get banned for an entirely separate reason: Wizards is just done with him. Much like with Faithless Looting, the subtext in the Uro ban was that Wizards was simply over that type of gameplay. That was why Field and Sanctuary had to go. Wizards could easily decide that Omnath is just too good everywhere and it needs to go, and/or the type of games it enables is not desirable.

Likelihood: Low to High

On its own merits, I think that 4-Color is fine and could stick around provided that it doesn't take too much metagame space, thus the low rating. However, if Wizards is looking for a major shakeup or an Uro-style intervention, Omnath wears a huge target. Big enough that there's little chance Omnath escapes, hence the high rating. It's easier to ban an already frequently-banned card than anything else. Such a ban would likely include Lurrus too for metagame balance. I could see Teferi, Time Raveler and possibly Wrenn and Six too, but neither has a chance on their own. Wizards would have to be looking for a hard reset of Modern. Certainly, a lot of players would be overjoyed to see the Time Raveler go.

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

Offenses: homogenizes deck construction; problematic play patterns (unfun gameplay)

As I mentioned last week, Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer gets a lot of praise and also blame for the direction Modern is heading. It isn't clear if said direction is good or bad nor is it clear if Ragavan is uniquely behind the changes. There's so much going on at the same time that separating the causal and corollary impacts of given cards is impossible. If the direction Modern's heading is good, nothing needs to happen. If it's bad and Ragavan actually is at fault, it needs to go.

Why Ragavan Won't Be Banned

Is the problem Ragavan, or Lurrus recurring Ragavan? The only deck that consistently plays Ragavan and not Lurrus is UR Murktide, a deck I've never heard complaints about. I do hear complaints about the Lurrus decks that are also playing Ragavan simply because they're never out of the woods. Beyond that, Ragavan is so easily answered that it seems laughable to ban the card.

How Ragavan Could Be Banned

While weaker in basically every way than Deathrite Shaman, Ragavan does put pressure on decks and the format in a similar way. Specifically, it demands: answer me quickly or the game slips away. Then there's the issue that losing to your own cards isn't fun and the fact that Ragavan shows up in weird places.

Likelihood: Low

I would not support Ragavan being banned alongside anything else. Again, it isn't clear that it's at fault for anything that's going on. I'd rather ban Lurrus and then see. If UR is the only viable home for Rags, then there's no problem. However, if he continues to spread throughout the metagame, then action will need to be taken.

Urza, Lord High Artificer/Urza's Saga

Offenses: generally broken; enables brokenness

These two are purely speculative, and as I'll be detailing below, require the right new cards to spell trouble. But the possibility is foreseeable, so I'm including them. I've gone into detail on Urza twice now, and he remains a threat for all the same reasons. He was the third power card in 2019's Snowoko decks and survived where Uro and Oko, Thief of Crowns fell thanks to support cards being banned instead.

Meanwhile, Saga provides an insane amount of value from a land. While it can be answered a number of ways, lands are generally harder to answer than any other permanent type. And an unmolested Saga will produce two 3/3 constructs and a 0 or 1 cost artifact. It is a very strong card for grinding and has shown up in a large number of decks this year.

Why Both Won't Be Banned

Neither card is actually dangerous in Modern right now. Urza barely sees play and Saga's metagame presence has been declining. There's a huge deckbuilding cost to playing colorless lands in the first place, and Saga has a time limit. Plus, in order to get the most out of Saga decks have to clear space for 0 or 1 cost artifacts they wouldn't play at all or at least maindeck under normal circumstances. As such, non-Hammer Time Saga decks have been declining for several months now. And the trend will continue to next week's metagame update. Neither card will be banned as things stand.

How Both Could Be Banned

However, there is an entire year of cards ahead which would contain the missing piece for Urza to reclaim his glory and/or break Saga. Or something could be broken by Saga. I'm specifically looking to next fall and The Brother's War. For those unfamiliar with Magic's deep lore, that was the event that launched the entire Magic story universe and the first plotline. It's a war between artificers and the marketing blurb specifically mentions giant mechs. This almost certainly means that it's an artifact set and Wizards has a history with those. All it takes is the right replacement for Mox Opal and/or Arcum's Astrolabe for Urza to dominate again. And that same card might bust Saga.

Likelihood: Very Low

Wizards will need to make a mistake for either card to become remotely banworthy. Design has taken a pounding over the past several years and appears to have learned, judging by the past year's Standard. However, anything is possible when designing around artifacts.

Wait and See

And now we wait. Modern is in a good place, so I don't expect anything to happen in the near future. However, the mind of Wizards of the Coast is a strange and mercurial thing. Who knows what it intends or what is coming which will require action? We just have to play the waiting game.

The Top 5 Most Valuable Holiday Promos

Posted on December 27, 2021December 27, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Last Thursday I received a festive email from TCGplayer describing the author’s opinion on “The 5 Strongest Holiday WOTC Cards.” The email explains a brief background:

“Since 2006, Wizards of the Coast has celebrated every holiday season by printing a special promotional card for internal team members and business partners. These silver-bordered holiday cards aren’t really meant to see play, they’re just a fun excuse to indulge in puns and references to old cards.”

Peter proceeds to rank his top five choices:

#5 Mishra's Toy Workshop
#4 Decorated Knight // Present Arms
#3 Stocking Tiger
#2 Topdeck the Halls
#1 Evil Presents

The email describes the rationale for this choice of ranking. It was a cute and entertaining read for the holiday weekend.

In the meantime, I’ve been seeing my Twitter feed rife with jealousy-inducing pictures of content creators and Wizards partners receiving the 2021 holiday promo:

While I regrettably don’t receive these gifted holiday promos, I still like to track them for their rarity and value! This is a Magic finance column, after all, so let’s dive into the top 5 most valuable holiday promo cards!

#5 Evil Presents ~ $160

It’s fitting that arguably the most powerful holiday promo card is also one of the most valuable. I assume the most popular application for this card (should it see play) is in combination with Phage the Untouchable for an instant win. While not instantaneous, Blightsteel Colossus is another fun one to combine with Evil Presents. That self-attacking clause is really what makes this card so versatile.

Perhaps playability is the factor that drives this card’s value. Currently, the card sells for around $160 on TCGplayer for a lightly played copy. I think its age also plays a role since this was the holiday card from 2008—that’s 13 years ago!

#4 Season’s Beatings ~ $190

The fourth most valuable holiday promo is also one of the older ones, from 2009. The artwork is pretty entertaining on this one, along with the gothic, holiday-themed flavor text. The random nature of the card’s effect would make this one pretty annoying to resolve in a game of Magic, but you can’t argue with its power. I’m not sure if it’s the artwork, the age, the power level, or a combination of the three that makes this card worth nearly $200.

#3 Snow Mercy ~ $250

This is the newest holiday promo in the top five, printed in 2010. Still, the card is eleven years old and I’m definitely seeing a theme here. The older holiday promos are also the most valuable! So while power level and flavor may play a small role in driving value, the most significant factor is surely age.

Here’s a fun fact about Snow Mercy: this is one of the few holiday promos I’ve ever owned. I forget the context, but I think I picked up a copy through some store credit arbitrage or something along those lines—this is my guess because I don’t remember owning the card for very long. Now that I see the card is no longer worth $70 and is now worth about $250, I of course regret flipping the card so quickly. I also love the ability because it effectively has you shake the card back and forth, reminiscent of shaking a snow globe!

The flavor text is a bit over-the-top in my opinion. I guess the intent is to indicate that shaking the snow globe is effectively shaking an actual world. In any event, the snow enchantment (why isn’t it a snow artifact?) comes in as the third most valuable Wizards holiday promo.

#2 Fruitcake Elemental ~ $300

The second most valuable holiday promo card happens to be the very first one Wizards of the Coast created, back in 2006. Can you believe they’ve been printing these holiday promos for 15 years now?

I vaguely remember reading about this card when it first came out, thinking it was pretty strange that Wizards made a promotional, holiday-themed, silver-bordered card to give away. I found the artwork disturbing, and I largely ignored the concept at the time. Now in hindsight, I wish I had scooped up a bunch of these given how valuable they’ve become, nearing $300!

The flavor of the card is pretty spot-on. The running holiday joke that fruitcakes never expire and are frequently re-gifted syncs up perfectly with this card’s abilities: indestructible, harmful to the controller, and easily “giftable” to a different player! The flavor text does a great job describing what a fruitcake elemental would be like in real life. The longer Wizards does these holiday promos, the more valuable this one will become, being the original.

#1 Gifts Given ~ $400

If you want to purchase a copy of Gifts Given, the most valuable holiday promo card, you’re looking at over $370 for a moderately played copy. A nicer condition copy will cost you north of $400…currently, the cheapest LP copy available on TCGplayer is $499 (though no copies have sold for that much yet).

What makes this card so valuable? First off, we need to acknowledge that it’s the second oldest holiday promo in existence, printed back in 2007. We’ve already established that the older holiday promos (certainly the first five printed from 2006-2010) are the most expensive. But I believe this card’s value is derived from a couple of additional factors.

First, the artwork is a fun spoof of the Champions of Kamigawa card, Gifts Ungiven.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

Not many tournament legal Magic cards directly mention gifts in them, so this was a natural card to model off of when creating a holiday promo. The artwork is really cute, depicting the same character as the one on Gifts Ungiven wrapping presents that look very similar to those being wrapped in Gifts Ungiven. The parallels are numerous and very well done.

While this card didn’t show up in Peter’s top five most powerful holiday promos, I have heard stories about Gifts Given seeing some fun play in casual Commander games. As long as you’re playing amongst friends, this is a fun card that isn’t necessarily overpowered. Perhaps this playability is another driving force for this card’s value?

Lastly, I just want to mention that this is the only holiday promo that I currently own. I loved the parallel to Gifts Ungiven so much, that I picked this card up many years ago. It remains in my binder as a card I’ll possibly never sell—how could I sell it? After all, it was a gift (how fitting!).

Wrapping It Up

The holiday promos have been a Wizards tradition for 15 years now! While it started as a fun, festive way to thank staff and content creators, I have to admit that these have become pretty valuable cards in their own right. Some may even be worth investing in—there has been no precedent for reprints of these cards, so perhaps they are effectively on a “Reserved List” of sorts.

In that context, I don’t hate picking up any copies of these for a personal collection. I wouldn’t necessarily go out and purchase a dozen copies of Last-Minute Chopping—I can’t imagine these cards sell all that rapidly, and your opportunity cost would be steep. But if you like any of the previous holiday promos, I wouldn’t suggest waiting. It would be best to prioritize these since they seem to appreciate over time.

The cheapest promo currently is 2017’s Some Disassembly Required, which you can currently pick up for $35 or so. If you’re looking for a low-cost way of getting exposure to this space, this seems like a budget-friendly pickup. Though I’ll admit that this one’s ability is underwhelming. I’d rather go for the second cheapest, Goblin Sleigh Ride, which has a Chaos Orb type effect with physical dexterity being required.

Whichever way you decide to go, these fun and festive cards are sure to get your play group’s attention. If played right, they’ll also give you some laughs and help you get into the holiday spirit. Even if making money isn’t your primary angle, I’d definitely recommend adding a couple of these promos to your collection.

Teaching Magic: The Gathering With The Feynman Technique

Posted on December 24, 2021December 24, 2021 by Paul Comeau

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Friends, Family, and Feynman

Richard Feynman was a Nobel-prize-winning physicist. He was recruited to work on the Manhattan Project (the team of scientists developing the first atomic bombs) while still in his early 20s. His groundbreaking work in theoretical physics included advances in quantum mechanics, particle physics, and quantum electrodynamics. It was in the field of quantum electrodynamics for which he was jointly awarded his Nobel prize. While best known for his scientific work, Feynman also pioneered an approach to learning and teaching: The Feynman Technique. What does all this have to do with Magic: The Gathering?

With the holidays upon us, many will be spending time with family and friends. Perhaps you have a child, a niece, or a sibling who will ask, "What's the deal with this Magic game you're always playing?" or "How do you play?" More likely, you'll have arm-twisted a friend or relative into learning Magic. However it happens, at some point, you will sit down and teach someone to play Magic: The Gathering. The Feynman Technique is here to make that process as straightforward as possible.

What is The Feynman Technique?

The Feynman Technique is a style of learning that can be applied to any concept. Its goal is more than just learning surface knowledge of a subject, but of helping the student achieve a deep understanding. While primarily used for learning, it can also be used for teaching. The Feynman Technique can be broken down into a series of steps:

Choose a subject or concept you wish to learn
Write down as simply as possible everything you know on the subject
Read it out loud as though teaching it to a child, like a fifth or sixth-grader
Identify gaps in your explanation
Refine and simplify your explanation
Repeat steps 2-5 as needed until you achieve mastery of the subject

What's great about the Feynman Technique is it can be used as a course of self-study to understand any topic. This can be anything from particle physics, to English literature, to Trading Card Games (TCGs). The Feynman Technique can also be used as a teaching tool. So how do we use it to teach a game as complex as Magic?

Teaching Magic With the Feynman Technique

To start teaching anyone Magic, it is helpful to have done some advanced preparation. Before we even discuss the decks we will use, it is important for us to establish a basic understanding of the game, and how it is played. To use the Feynman Technique, start by writing down everything you know about Magic needed to explain a simple game to someone. This can include everything from the steps and phases of a turn, to what it means to "tap" something, to the costs to play spells. Whatever you think is important to play the game, write it down.

Once it's written down, you'll want to organize the material. The sheet you've written will serve as a reference guide while you are teaching. Keep it simple, keep it neat. Try to limit it to one 8.5"x11" piece of paper. Once it's written down, read it to a friend who already knows Magic. Is there anything missing? Did you adequately lay out the steps of a turn? What about priority? The stack? Fill in as many of the gaps as you can, and repeat this process until you have a one-page written guide to playing Magic that anyone could pick up, read, and muddle through a game with a minimal amount of guidance by you.

The Teaching Process

With your teaching guide in hand, you are ready to start teaching using the Feynman Technique. I recommend explaining as little as possible at the start. Cover costs of spells, tapping, and outline the steps of a turn. However much you need to get the new player into running a sample game with exposed hands. Follow steps three through five of the learning principles we've discussed, taking the new player through each step of a turn, and through several turns of a game with hands exposed until they feel comfortable navigating the turn sequence.

As you go, your friend or family member may have questions about how things work. Utilizing either your own knowledge, your cheat sheet, or another source, answer each of these questions as they come up. Answering these questions will fill in gaps in the knowledge of the learner (step four), and may reveal additional content to add to your cheat sheet. Continue this process through a few sample games (with hands revealed or hidden) until the new player feels comfortable playing with a minimal amount of questions. At that point, you'll have successfully taught them Magic! So what decks should you use to aid in the learning process?

What Decks Should You Use?

While it's possible to teach someone with full Commander decks or tournament-caliber Modern decks, custom teaching decks or a purpose-built product like Magic sample decks or JumpStart packs is recommended. The advantage of preexisting sample decks or JumpStart packs, if you have either, is that they are ready-to-go products that require no prior planning other than your teaching materials. Simply shuffle them up and start teaching. If you do not have access to those products or prefer to build custom teaching decks, there are a number of factors to consider when deckbuilding.

Building Custom Teaching Decks

If building custom teaching decks, I recommend building a set of five complementary decks, one for each color of magic. Each deck should contain the same number of cards, so they may easily be shuffled together to make a larger two-color constructed deck. I recommend either 20-card or 30-card teaching decks. In addition to each of the five decks containing the same number of cards, I recommend each teaching deck contain the following:

10-13 creatures, depending on color
At least one enchantment (aura or non-aura)
At least one artifact
1-5 instant or sorcery spells depending on color
9-13 basic lands depending on deck size
At least one non-basic land that does more than just produce mana

Additionally, each deck should not contain more than one rare/mythic, or more than four or five uncommons. This limitation is intentional. By building decks mostly around common cards, the cards will be less technically complex, and more likely to include reminder text on keywords. This will aid in the teaching process before introducing players to more complex cards, and make the rares that appear in these decks that much more exciting.

Lessons Learned

The Feynman Technique is only one of the many possible methods to aid your teaching of Magic. What teaching strategies have worked for you in the past? How did you learn to play the game? Let me know in the comments, or on Twitter. For more on the life and work of Richard Feynman, check out his autobiography "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!": Adventures of a Curious Character.

My Latest Fun Deck and How I Made It

Posted on December 23, 2021December 23, 2021 by Joe Mauri

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Inspiration has a funny way of happening. The story of how Minsc, Beloved Ranger came to be my next commander project begins with Magic the Gathering: Online.

My good friend and I have played draft on Magic: Online for several years and we are very different players. We have diverse opinions on overall strategy, card power, and play sequencing. Deep into pack two, there is Minsc. We had token synergy, few three drops, and, there was nothing else in the pack. Welcome to the draft deck Minsc!

Through two rounds we never saw this card. In the third round, however, we were 1-1 going into game three. In the final game of the final match we finally had Minsc out and our opponent was one card away from stabilizing. Our draw for the turn was Zealous Conscripts and we got to steal their only blocker and smash for big but non-lethal damage. Then I noticed after combat that if we had activated Minsc for zero, our opponent's stolen creature would just be dead. We promptly made their Young Pyromancer a 0/0 and they conceded on the spot.

A Pleasant Surprise

Even though we made other plays throughout the draft that were much more complicated, we were both laughing hard at the Minsc finish. Capturing that moment in a game of Commander then became my goal.

I took a quick look at what other players were doing with Minsc and it was mostly token-based strategies. If you've read my article on The Heart of Commander you know that one of my goals for casual Commander is to play lots of different cards and really make a color identity and Commander stand out. Playing a token deck with Minsc might make strategic sense but it lacks significantly in the flavor department.

A GIANT Solution for a Giant Problem

Coincidentally, I've been looking at updating my GIANTS deck lead by Ruhan of the Fomori with a bunch of cards from Kaldheim. One of my older Commander decks, Brion Stoutarm, had some cards I would like to move into Ruhan and Disharmony effects would be key in Minsc so the decision was made. I added Brion's GIANTS to Ruhan and color identity distinctiveness to Minsc's; in essence, Brion Stoutarm was assimilated.

Fighting and Stealing and More Fighting

I also decided that the main appeal of Green in this deck would be to facilitate the Fight mechanic. So Red is stealing, Green is fighting, but what about White? Well, White is actually Fighting and Stealing.

This is chef's kiss good — we have absolutely nailed the color identity for the theme. Additionally, I made some build choices based on my Points article as well. This deck does not seek to absolutely maximize points in its current form, but it does score fairly well at a virtual Plus Six Points to start.

Give us a Decklist Already!

Russell Crowe Presents Minsc, Fighting Round the World

Commander

1 Minsc, Beloved Ranger

Stealing

1 Word of Seizing

1 Preacher

1 Evangelize

1 Jeering Instigator

1 Wrangle

1 Harness by Force

1 Hijack

1 Kari Zev's Expertise

1 Traitorous Blood

1 Act of Treason

1 Bloody Betrayal

1 Disharmony

1 Shackles of Treachery

1 Act of Aggression

1 Captivating Crew

1 Portent of Betrayal

1 Traitorous Greed

1 Goatnap

1 Sarkhan Vol

1 Mass Mutiny

1 Coercive Recruiter

1 Zealous Conscripts

1 Conquering Manticore

1 Molten Primordial

1 Mob Rule

1 Insurrection

1 Twist Allegiance

Fighting

1 Inscription of Abundance

1 Mage Duel

1 Blizzard Brawl

1 Dromoka's Command

1 Pit Fight

1 Go for Blood

1 Domri Rade

1 Domri, Anarch of Bolas

1 Ravager Wurm

1 Primal Might

1 Neyith of the Dire Hunt

1 Kogla, the Titan Ape

1 Ulvenwald Tracker

1 Prey Upon

1 Titanic Brawl

1 Pounce

1 Duel for Dominance

1 Voracious Hydra

Mana Rocks

1 Gruul Signet

1 Selesnya Signet

1 Boros Signet

1 Gruul Cluestone

1 Selesnya Cluestone

1 Boros Cluestone

1 Strixhaven Stadium

Draw Cards, Removal

1 Phyrexian Vault

1 Relic Vial

1 Greater Good

ETC

1 Tahngarth, First Mate

1 Restoration Angel

1 Flailing Soldier

1 Humble Defector

1 Bazaar Trader

1 Beast Within

1 Generous Gift

Basic Lands

13 Snow-Covered Forest

14 Snow-Covered Mountain

10 Snow-Covered Plains

Why I'm NOT Playing Certain Cards

Most of the choices made here are based around a very specific theme that has been in Magic since day one; stealing a creature. After I steal it, it's unlikely my opponent is getting it back because I am going to sacrifice it for profit, make it Fight another creature to clear the board, or just turn it into a 0/0 with Minsc; and I get a free attack out of the deal! Furthermore, we're getting Points just for playing a fair, casual, and interactive deck. Perusing EDREC we can check the Top 100 list for the colors we are playing.

In Red, we have to go down to the 70th most played card, Zealous Conscripts. This card is obviously good but it is tremendously on theme and an easy include. In this deck, it is a Talruum Minotaur with Act of Treason tacked on.

In White, well, we're playing very few cards for the same reasons — there are not many on theme. Some additional White cards considered were: Prepare // Fight, Debt of Loyalty, or, Animal Boneyard.

Green is a lot easier as we only have Greater Good which is 75th. We've avoided the "trap" of Green by simply not choosing to ramp, and, we score two Points for not shuffling our deck.

Autoincludes Make Games More Boring

The 500 pound gorilla in the room is NOT Kogla, the Titan Ape, it's Beast Within and Generous Gift. These are both solid cards and in the top 100 for obvious reasons - they deal with *ANYTHING*! However, if our opponents don't have creatures, we can't steal them. The only fair thing to do would be to give them a creature to steal back anyways. I think both cards fit the theme of the deck enough to be included and are extra interactive in this case. Consider it's significantly more interactive than playing Krosan's Grip or Nature's Claim.

Additionally, while Lightning Greeves and Swiftfoot Boots look great to protect Minsc, they are both in the top 30, too common, and seek to remove interaction, which is against the Heart of Commander. Minsc costs three mana — if it gets removed play more Magic and recast it at five mana a turn or two later.

Even Fun Decks Have Power

Sneaking in at 99 out of Top 100 for Red, Insurrection is a potential game-winner by itself. However, you have both Strixhaven Stadium to make your job easier and Minsc to make it a one-sided board wipe after combat. Want to draw cards? Humble Defector not only gives you cards but, also, allows you to give it to another player at the table who should pass it right back to you. If that player no longer respects team Minsc? Steal the Defector back and give it to someone else!

That's a Good Trade

Bazaar Trader is criminally good in these types of decks. Permanently gaining control of anything you steal is great, but, there is a second mode to the Trader that is perfect for diplomacy. Maybe someone needs a land or a mana rock to be able to stop a threat on the table that you cannot stop — Bazaar Trader to the rescue! If the writing is on the wall and someone is going to kill you, try this: give them a land. Act of Treason your own Trader to untap it, then give them another land. Maybe keeping you around another turn is worth it for two lands. Or two creatures. You know it does not matter who controls a creature; if it's on the board it belongs to you!

An Easy Deck to Power Up

Keep in mind much of what has shaped my version of Minsc is for casual play with a Point structure that I am working around. There are auto-include cards like Khalni Ambush // Khalni Territory and Song-Mad Treachery // Song-Mad Ruins, which would cost a Point but take up no room in the deck so those are simple upgrades if Points are not in play. With big mana, Minsc makes any attacker a lethal one and can easily chase a Point for Largest Creature.

The next time I go to my LGS I'm bringing Minsc along — I think I'm going to have some stories when I return!

But What About the Hamster?

Yes there is a Hamster. The Hamster's name is Boo. I think killing a player with a Hamster is pretty humorous but that is not what inspired this deck. If I won an event and got to make a new rule it would be +1 Point for finishing off a player with Boo. The entire deck would be different, but that is another story, one I hope to tell!

Did this decklist inspire you? Have you played Minsc as your Commander? Reply in the comments!

Rekindling the Fire

Posted on December 22, 2021December 22, 2021 by David Schumann

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It has been a while since my last article. I would like to say that this delay is due to starting a new job or even the rush of the holiday season. While these have definitely been factors, it is also due to a lackluster passion towards Magic in general and a re-found love affair with Diablo 2 (Resurrected).

I do not know how many others just feel generally overwhelmed by the sheer number of new products Wizards is pumping out, but my entire playgroup has taken a step back as nobody has the time to stay up to date with all the new cards pouring out of Seattle.

There was a time in my life where I was playing Magic every night of the week, except on Mondays. I looked forward to Thursday nights more than any other night as it was designated as EDH night. I definitely went into work a few Fridays with far less sleep than I should have thanks to some epic games.

But that was back when we didn't live in constant spoiler season and one got a breather between sets to delve into fun interactions with the latest cards, rather than having to constantly check what is coming next and ignoring what has already been released.

I no longer get excited about the next fun "build around me" commander because I haven't even started building the deck around the last one.

I don't want this article to maintain the depressing tone it started with, so there is some positivity on the horizon. I have returned to my roots. My favorite color combination has always been Junk, or what is now called Abzhan. You get mana acceleration, removal, and life gain.

I bring all this up because after deciding to build a deck around those concepts, I came across some newer cards with low buy-ins that I believe have a lot of potential. It also looks like the Commander-based cards with extended art found in Collector Boosters can not be foil, which makes these the "rarest version" of these cards. I only bring this up because the buy-in for the extended art versions of these cards is still very low, thus the extended art versions are the variants I like most for speculation.

This search has also helped rekindle my passion for speculation, and the low buy-in means a random reprint in some new product will not lose me a lot of money.

My Most Recent Specs

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blossoming Bogbeast

With no other synergies, this 5 drop gives all your creatures +2/+2 and trample when it attacks. However, given the plethora of cards in Magic's history that provide life this can easily be a much bigger buff. I picked up 10 copies and three extended art copies myself after finding this card. Unfortunately, it has to attack to trigger and doesn't have haste, so it isn't quite the second coming of Craterhoof Behemoth; but given copies are under $1 and it is only in one of the C2021 decks, I feel the risk is minimal and the buy-in is low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ezzaroot Channeler

I think this card has a lot more potential than people might initially think and it feels like a sleeper to me. I believe in it enough to have bought up 20 copies myself. The key to this card is that its mana reduction ability is static and unlimited (i.e. there is no "can't reduce the cost to less than 1" clause as we have seen on other cards). This feels like a card that can easily allow you to cast Eldrazi on the cheap, which is especially good since the big ones have on-cast triggers. While I haven't actually drawn it in the few games I have played with this deck, I imagine it will have quite a showing when I do.

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While I have been unimpressed with the Coven mechanic in draft, and it hasn't done anything in standard yet, Commander is a format that is still heavily dominated by creatures, so triggering Coven shouldn't be that difficult. Being able to make all your creatures indestructible every combat is exactly what any aggro deck wants to do. It is also critical to note that Stalwart Pathlighter does not have to attack for it to trigger, so you can abuse it the turn you play it. A 3/1 for three isn't spectacular, but it also isn't overcosted to the point of being unplayable, like some cards aimed solely at Commander players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Veinwitch Coven

My last target is the one I like the most. As a 3/3 with menace for three mana it is at least somewhat aggressively costed. The ability to cast Raise Dead every time you gain life seems like something that can easily be broken and is at the very least a good value engine. Requiring any life gain to trigger allows it to pair well with numerous cards throughout Magic's history. I found that the extended art versions were available for about 30-50% more than the regular versions, yet I have to believe they are far less common and thus I really like this spec and have picked up around eight extended arts. Having a creature type of vampire also adds some potential.

Spec Hits

A few years ago I called out Infernal Genesis as a potential spec thanks to the rare ability for black to make tokens. To any of my readers who took me up on it — it has finally hit. This isn't meant to imply that all my calls end up being big winners, but I like my logic at the time, and it combo's nicely with Toxrill, the Corrosive

Real-world Flavor. Magic Quotations From a Collection of Middle Eastern Folk Tales

Posted on December 22, 2021December 22, 2021 by Francesco Spagnol

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When he reached the entrance of the cavern, he pronounced the words, ‘Open, Sesame!’
Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves

This is one of the most famous quotations from One Thousand and One Nights, a collection of folk tales from the Middle East also known as the Arabian Nights. It is easily among the most renowned magical phrases of all time, nearly at the level of "Abracadabra", and anybody would link it to the poor woodcutter Ali Baba. For Magic players, it is also the flavor text of Ali Baba, from Arabian Nights.

As such, it gives a perfect example of real-world flavor text, and it sounds like the best card to introduce a new setting, that of Middle Eastern folklore. After dealing with Greek and Latin literature the past two articles, in this new installment, we will analyze flavor texts made of excerpts from One Thousand and One Nights.

One Thousand and One Nights

There are six unique cards with flavor text taken from the collection of folk tales One Thousand and One Nights. Interestingly only four of them are from the Arabian Nights expansion. Of the other two, one is very special and exists in just one language. The other is a Junior Super Series promo from 2001.

If we look for real-world quotes in Arabian Nights in general, not just the folk tales, we find that there are seven cards from the set showcasing a real-world quotation. Among those seven, four quotations come from the collection One Thousand and One Nights. Two are excerpts from the Quran, and one is a poem by Andalusian poet Wallada.

Let's keep focused just on the six cards that contain quotations from One Thousand and One Nights. Since they are a sufficiently small number, we will be able to analyze them card by card.

Aladdin's Ring

After these words the magician drew a ring off his finger, and put it on one of Aladdin’s, saying: ‘It is a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me.’

We mentioned Ali Baba in the introduction, and Aladdin no doubt is the only protagonist able to dethrone him when it comes to popularity. Both characters deserve a dedicated card from Arabian Nights. Aladdin though, has no flavor text at all. Instead, it is Aladdin's Ring which contains this quote. The very expensive artifact is one of the slowest cards ever. It costs eight mana to cast and requires an additional eight mana (and tapping) for every activation. It's not even the most expensive card in Arabian Nights. That honor goes to another of Aladdin's artifacts, Aladdin's Lamp.

Though illustrated by Dan Frazer, the illustrator of the five Moxen, the illustration of Aladdin's Ring is not that impressive. It does show some similarities with the Moxen when you examine the background though, which is nice. The flavor quotation is taken from the Junior Classics translation, as stated on the card. It depicts the crucial scene when the evil magician gives Aladdin his magical ring, whose power consists in evoking a genie. Of course, his true target is the lamp, capable of evoking a much more powerful genie.

The combination of the card and the quotation comes off as a cheap choice. The sentence is famous, and the link between the card and the quotation is obvious. Overall, it's similar to the case of Alluring Siren, a card we discussed in one of the previous installments.

Ali Baba

When he reached the entrance of the cavern, he pronounced the words, ‘Open, Sesame!’

Here comes the text we used as an introduction. This time, it is the very card based on Ali Baba's character the one with a real-world flavor text. We mentioned the fact that Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves is perhaps the most famous tale in the collection, but what many people ignore is that it actually was a later addition. In fact, it was only included in the collection at the beginning of the 18th century, when French orientalist Antoine Galland published its first European translation, with the title of Les mille et une nuits.

As for the effect-flavor combination, there is not much to be said here. Ali Baba is a cheap 1/1 creature for one red mana. It allows you to tap a Wall by paying another red mana. It's not that useful, nor is it particularly striking when it comes to its inventiveness. The entrance to the treasure cavern is considered as a wall, and therefore Ali Baba is able to put Walls out of use. It's acceptable but no less didactic than the previous one.

Bird Maiden

Four things that never meet do here unite
To shed my blood and to ravage my heart,
A radiant brow and tresses that beguile
And rosy cheeks and a glittering smile.

This is by far my favorite card among the six we are analyzing today, both for its general flavor and for the delicate link between illustration and flavor text. Perhaps it's just me, but the very fact that this one is in verses (as compared to the prose of the previous two texts) is a strong plus. Also, the translation is much more recent here, from the 1990's edition translated by Husain Haddawy, which is among the best to date.

Bird Maiden is another perfect example of what usually gets a great flavor text: a common creature, with few or no abilities. It's similar to Scathe Zombies in this regard. Bird Maiden is a 1/2 red flyer for three mana. Its appeal comes mostly from Kaja Foglio's heartwarming illustration, but the old-fashioned type line of "Summon Bird Maiden" also helps out. The quotation describes a girl "who looked as radiant as a brilliant pearl of the shining sun [...], about five feet tall, with a beautiful figure, firm breasts, soft cheeks, and a fair complexion". Not an easy challenge, but Ms. Foglio surely nailed it, creating one of the most joyous Magic arts ever.

Repentant Blacksmith

For my confession they burned me with fire
And found that I was for endurance made.

Another cheap creature, although a rare one, is my second favorite on this list. Once more, what I find most striking about it is the connection between illustration and text. Again, the fact that it comes in verses is a nice addition. Repentant Blacksmith is a 1/2 white Smith Creature with Protection from red, and its illustration shows in beautiful watercolors a smith working in his forge. As simple (and as effective) as that! The illustrator is Drew Tucker, one of the original 25 Magic artists.

If you are curious, the poem would continue with two more lines: "Hence I was borne high on the hands of men / And given to kiss the lips of pretty maids". The edition is the same one we saw earlier, translated by Haddawy. Choosing this particular passage does not really make sense, and yet the quotation is very powerful for the simple reason that it describes a blacksmith capable of resisting fire (i.e., with Protection from red).

Serendib Efreet

(I learned this way that the island of Serendib is eighty parasangs in length, and as many in breadth; that it had a mountain, which was the highest in the world.)

Serendib Efreet is the most celebrated among these six cards. It's an old school staple like Shivan Dragon and Serra Angel. It first appeared in Arabian Nights but didn't have any flavor text, in that printing. It wasn't until the Foreign Black Bordered printing of Revised (and later in Foreign White Bordered), that it received flavor text. The quote only appears on the French-language version of the card. We don't know the reason behind this choice. The text I have quoted here is the English translation. The original text of the card is from the French translation by Mardrus.

The excerpt comes from the Sixth Voyage of Sindbad, and interestingly, doesn't mention an Efreet at all. Rather, it focuses on the island of Serendib itself. That might be the reason why no other edition (or language) makes use of this quotation. It's a nice one, though, with a strong reminiscence of ancient and fabulous journeys. As such, it makes great flavor text, despite not referencing any actual Efreet.

City of Brass

Enter this palace-gate and ask the news
Of greatness fallen into dust and clay.

Here is another old school staple, and the only card among the six able to rival Serendib Efreet. They have something else in common: both were first printed in Arabian Nights but didn't receive flavor text until their reprinting. In the case of City of Brass, it was as a Junior Super Series Promo that it got flavor text. Of the six cards we're discussing, it's by far the most expensive card, as can be seen in this graph:

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Brass

As for the flavor text, here we have our final example of flavor text in verse. This time from the Arabian Nights' edition translated by the British explorer Richard Francis Burton and published in 1885. The quoted text is just a couplet of hendecasyllables, but the original poem was a bit longer. It was quoted by the Shaykh to the Emir, leaving him in tears for the emotion. It refers to a "fallen greatness", whereas the image of City of Brass shows a perfectly fine and alive city. We can excuse this inconsistency, as both the text and the illustration are really powerful.

What's Different?

When you compare these six texts with those we analyzed in the past two articles, you'll see some crucial differences. First, all these quotations come from folk tales, not from a pool of various literary genres. As a consequence, the sound is much more consistent. There is no real variation to observe here. Second, these sentences are more about description than reference. They slavishly adhere to the content of the cards on which they appear. We saw some similar cases with Greek and Latin quotations, but this time it's an all-encompassing tendency. Last, there is no chance to extract short, witty sentences like the ones we saw especially on Latin-derived quotes (which is not necessarily a bad thing).

Conclusions

We have seen another group of cards that share the same source of flavor text. As it happened with the classical world, hints, and references to Middle Eastern culture are not limited to these six cards. It would take too long to mention every single card that is indebted in one way or another to that civilization. In the next installment, we shall explore another great culture whose literature has been extensively used in flavor text.

State of Modern: 2021 Edition

Posted on December 22, 2021January 11, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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As the year wraps up, the time of self-reflection and empty resolutions begins. My idle mind now wonders if Wizards makes resolutions about card design. I then realize that they design two years ahead, and so if they do make resolutions for the new year, isn't that technically cheating? Or maybe they're focused on using last year's mistakes to improve the design two years from now. And now I'm thinking that I've been hitting the eggnog way harder and earlier than anticipated. So let's wrangle this back on track and reflect on Modern in 2021. In doing so, we'll also turn my eye to what may happen in 2022. Because speculation is always more fun than reflection.

Modern changed significantly in 2021. It began with a disaster that led to the largest ban since Modern's inception. Then Modern Horizons 2 was released, which wasn't busted like MH1, but rather had a very high (though fair) power level. The format is gradually stabilizing but remains in a state of relative flux. And if the trends in December's data continue, the churn won't subside anytime soon. Consequently, 2021 was a mercurial year metagame-wise. There is a lot to like about the current state of Modern. There is also much to dislike. Frequently, they're the same things. It depends on who's being asked. Naturally, since I'm the one writing this article, my own tastes will factor heavily in the "goods" and "bads" discussed here.

The Good

First off, let me be unequivocal: The State of Modern is good. I addressed this back in October, but a format isn't unhealthy just because something's happening that a given player dislikes. There will always be complaints about every metagame in every format. That's just how Magic players do; fish gotta swim, grass gotta grow, Magic players gotta complain about something. Sometimes it's justified criticism of bad design/metagames, sometimes it's just salty whining, and often it's something in between. Players find certain metagames healthy because they're having fun, but a different group that isn't having fun will see it as unhealthy. But it doesn't matter. The existence of objections does not disqualify a metagame from being good. The measure must come from less subjective metrics.

Health by Metrics

The most objective means of evaluating format health are diversity, dynamism, and competitiveness. These are consensus criteria, developed over years of numerous writers working on the question of what makes a format healthy. And while there is certainly room for improvement, the current Modern metagame does quite well by these standards.

Diversity: If number of distinct decks is the only measurement, then I don't think it's possible for Modern to be more diverse. The average number of decks I record per month is ~70, with an average of ~17 making the tier lists. While that's great, diversity isn't just the number of decks, but also the variety of strategies. And Modern has also done quite well there. Over the course of the year there have many different midrange, control, aggro, and tempo decks. Modern has consistently lacked combo decks, particularly unfair combo. Fair combos like Heliod Company, 4-Color Indomitable Creativity, and Living End have had their moments, but all fell off. Modern could use more consistency from the fair combo and unfair combos like Ad Nauseam to truly round out the metagame.
Dynamism: Modern is doing well in terms of dynamism, but again there's room for improvement. The exact composition of each tier has changed extensively month to month and the decks doing well now are nothing like the decks from March. That's a lot of churn and dynamism, which is good. It means the diversity is meaningful and anything can win. However, Hammer Time has been the #1 deck on my list since July. Sometimes Hammer has just pipped its rivals; sometimes it dominated. Having one deck sitting on top for long stretches isn't great, and it would be better if other decks beat Hammer for the top slot, but everything else looks good.
Competitiveness: Every week since March, my data has reflected a wide spread of decks winning both the Preliminaries and the Challenges. Frequently, a deck will have a great weekend and win big in both Challenges only to disappear the next week as rivals show up with the tools to dethrone them. Therefore 2021 Modern was very competitive. This is excellent for maintaining interest in Modern and bolsters the conclusions from dynamism and diversity.

Everything's looking good. It's not perfect, but nothing ever truly is. Modern's healthy: rejoice!

It Finally Happened

There's also a lot to like qualitatively. Remember how players complained for years that Modern was just ships passing in the night, was far too linear and/or combo driven, or just lacked interaction? That is decidedly not the case anymore. Lightning Bolt and Prismatic Ending, interactive cards, are two of the most played cards in the whole format. In fact, most of the top played spells for the whole year have been interactive. This interactivity has led to an era of fair decks dominating the format. It's harder now than at any point in Modern history to get away with linearity thanks to all the options for interaction, and it shows. This is perfectly fair Modern, at long last!

Now, this reality is not without detractors. The loudest grumbling is that it required a glut of free spells to happen. Players wanted interaction and fairness to happen, but not like this, or in this way. What I get from that is that they wanted 2018 Jund-style fair. Not much card advantage; just card quality and tempo to gradually build advantage until victory. While I can sympathize with the nostalgia, that was never in the cards. One, despite Wizards designing with that in mind for years, it just wasn't happening. Two, Wizards has by now moved away from that entire philosophy. They want players to use more of their deck in a game, and when slowing things down didn't work, they moved to expanding velocity. And that's proving to not be intrinsically bad.

All Are Welcome

As a result, Modern feels quite inclusive. Except for the price tag, but Magic is an intrinsically expensive hobby. Complaining about the price of entry may be valid, but that's how it is for every format these day. The price of success is high demand for product and that will drive up prices. This is the reality for Magic players now.

Looking past that issue, it seems Modern has something for everyone. There's a lot of choice and opportunity for every kind of player to find their deck and succeed. Combo is underrepresented in the data, but there are viable combo decks out there. Every FNM, I see different builds of control, midrange, ramp, and aggro, and players are changing their decks week to week and being rewarded. All over the Magic media, players are saying that this is the most fun they've ever had in Modern. They appear to vastly outweigh the doomsayers. And I can think of no better endorsement.

Storm Clouds Brewing

That said, I do see storm clouds on the horizon. The storm isn't guaranteed to make landfall, and it could even dissipate entirely. But I can definitely envision this metagame swerving south into unhealthy territory. And worse, it could do so without help from new cards. There's always a risk that a new card will break everything, and I can't predict that happening. What I can do is look at the current trends and see if there's anything heading in dangerous directions or that may cause problems. And I'm seeing three pressure points in the data which make me very worried.

I should note that this concern does apply more to MTGO than paper. MTGO's player base being much smaller, it lends itself to feedback loops and groupthink which in turn lead to warps in the metagame. With paper coming back I expect the metagame to get far more stable and prone to self-correction rather than over-correction. But we'll all have to wait and see.

The Lurrus Problem

The first problem is that Lurrus of the Dream Den is everywhere. Lurrus is the most played creature in Modern by a decent margin. This is in spite of it seeing vanishingly small amount of maindeck play. Rather, it sees an absurd amount of play as a singleton in sideboards thanks to companion. Last year, Lurrus took Hammer Time, a deck that was fringe playable at best, and gave it the power to hang in with 4-Color Uro Omnath decks. Access to Lurrus every game is a major reason why Hammer Time has managed to hang onto its top slot in Modern alongside Urza's Saga. Lurrus seeing a lot of play isn't a bad thing (opinions on the companion mechanic itself notwithstanding) because it boosts a lot of different decks and creates a lot of space for small creature decks to compete.

The problem is that Lurrus is crowding out a lot of cards. Permanents costing three-plus mana aren't seeing play in decks where they used to, and that's entirely down to Lurrus. Look at Grixis Death's Shadow and Jund trading in the once non-negotiable maindeck Liliana of the Veil for Lurrus as a companion. Liliana is still a very strong card and useful in many matchups, but the appeal of Lurrus always being available in addition to its interaction with Mishra's Bauble is not something she can match. Consider also that Lurrus is keeping certain answers out of Modern. Fatal Push has been largely abandoned, in no small part thanks to competition from Prismatic Ending and Unholy Heat. However, it had been on the decline even before MH2 thanks to lining up poorly against Lurrus' ability.

And this is all down to Lurrus uniquely. In late October, there was a shift in Hammer Time away from Lurrus and towards a higher curve with Nettlecyst. The idea was to have more threats and dodge some answers. It didn't work. The Lurrus version soundly outperformed the Nettlecyst version in November. I recorded 17 Nettlecyst decks with an average of 1.41 points to 45 Lurrus versions with an average of 1.87 points. This trend has continued this month and is replicated with the Jund and GDS decks.

That Annoying Monkey

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is the second most played creature in Modern (#1 in maindecks) and is quite controversial. There are decent arguments that Ragavan is good for Modern. The primary reason is that it requires decks to have turn 1 interaction or block. It also only benefits fair decks, dies to anything, and has to connect so to do anything. Even if it does connect once or twice, it's not the end of the world.

The problem I have is that many of those arguments were made in favor of Splinter Twin and Deathrite Shaman, both banned cards. The problem is that just like Shaman, unanswered Ragavan generates in insurmountable mana advantage. Just like Twin, there's no evidence other than anecdotes that Ragavan actually does force more interaction to happen. Ragavan was printed at the same time that a lot of answers were printed. Modern would be more interactive anyway and the effect Ragavan is having can't be separated from the altered carpool. And that's a problem because Ragavan is starting to appear everywhere, and that's a worry. So far this month I've seen Ragavan in the usual UR Murktide, Jund Saga, and GDS but also in Ponza, Humans, Jeskai Underworld Breach Combo, otherwise tribal Elementals, and 4-Color Omnath Pile to name the memorable few. This is getting to saturation levels.

And that's an additional problem because as much fun as Ragavan is to play, it isn't fun to play against. It is fun beating opponents with their cards; it sucks just as much to lose to your own cards. This is a really big problem in light of the earlier point. Players generally don't like getting hit with Ragavan and if they're not having fun against a card that is now everywhere, are they going to keep playing?

Just More Piling On

However, my biggest worry is the aforementioned 4-Color Omnath Piles. Specifically, they're coalescing. In November, there were several distinct versions of 4-Color Omnath and many different 4-Color decks. There was nothing wrong with this as they represented very different playstyles and strategies. There's also nothing wrong with multicolor piles in general because in a strong way, that is Magic-as-Richard-Garfield-Intended. He never saw the game getting this big and thought that players just playing all the cool cards together in the same deck would be how the game would go. Which is the entire pile strategy.

The problem is that piles tend to push out anything else at the same speed. Why bother trying to do anything else when you can just play the best card at every mana cost? That was a contributing factor in the demise of Frontier. The mana was so good and there was no land hate so there was no reason not to just run all the best cards in the same deck, at which point there was no incentive to run a slow deck that wasn't a 4-Color pile. Some decks would go 5-Color to get an edge, but that was it. The same thing happened with the Uro decks last year. The piles took over all the slow deck space and forced everyone to either go over or under them. It's happening again because UW Control can't compete with 4-Color's raw power and 2-for-1's and is floundering in December.

Specifically, all the 4-Color Omnath decks have become 4-Color Blink. Some lean into Ephemerate more than others, but they all intended to gain absurd value from blinking Omnath. They've all got the same core of planeswalkers, Omnath, Solitude, and Prismatic Ending, and all win via attrition. 4-Color Control is just gone, and both 4-Color Creativity and Bring to Light are below the tier cutoff. There's little Tribal Elementals either. And that's a huge threat to diversity.

Three Possible Outcomes

As I said, this storm isn't actually here yet. It's just building. It might not even hit Modern. But we do need to be aware and try to prepare. I foresee three possibilities:

The Near Miss - This is where Modern self-corrects and no intervention is necessary. I would prefer this outcome and believe it possible, but players will need to do the work to make it reality. First, we need more unfair combo decks in Modern. Belcher is a good option, but anything will do. We just need decks that actually don't care about Ragavan hits and go way over the top of anything fair. This will force both the 4-Color decks and the Lurrus decks to diversify their answers and stop focusing on grinding each other out. There will also need to be a better Blood Moon deck to contain and punish 4-Color's manabase. Ponza is too slow and Murktide isn't consistently running Moon.
The Storm Dissipates - There was never a real problem, it was just MTGO being MTGO. Online players just got it in their heads that this is how Modern is to be and ran with it. Paper results start to come in a refute the conclusions of the streamers and grinders and the format opens back up. Players adjust to the new cardpool and discover new strategies that obviate the current trends.
Direct Hit - This plays out just like it did with Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath. There's just too much power in the 4-Color decks and their mana is too good to overcome in a fair way. This forces other decks to lean more heavily into Ragavan and Lurrus to compete and the format becomes polarized. Many bans ensue.

Outlook: Uncertain

I don't know how this will actually play out. But I'm hoping that we can all learn to deal with Modern as it is and that everything will work itself out. But we have to see. However, next week will consider the third scenario.

Card Kingdom’s Condition Conundrum

Posted on December 20, 2021December 19, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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When I first started writing about Magic finance over a decade ago, I frequently referenced Star City Games as the gold standard for pricing—both on the buy-side and the sell-side. In fact, the first buylist that I used on a consistent basis was Star City Games’. I remember typing up my buylist orders in an email, following a very particular format required by the site, waiting for the approval email, and then printing out the approval email to ship along with the cards.

Thank goodness times have changed since then.

They changed so much, in fact, that I consider Card Kingdom’s buylist as best in class now rather than Star City’s. During the last cycle of peak Old School card prices, I shipped numerous trade-in and cash buylist orders to Card Kingdom, taking advantage of their aggressive prices and generous payouts. I haven’t sold a card to Star City Games through their website since March 2016.

Card Kingdom does have one minor shortcoming with their buylist that I wish they’d correct, however. ABUGames and Star City Games already changed their system, irradicating this issue, but Card Kingdom has not addressed it yet. It only impacts three sets, and only cards printed in 1993. I’m talking about their downgrade percentages for Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards.

Constant Percentage for Condition Downgrades

When it comes to downgrade percentages, Card Kingdom still uses constant numbers based on the card’s value—the higher the value, the higher percentage of the near mint price you receive for played copies. Foils get their own downgrade scale as do Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards. Here’s the simple summary:

When it comes to selling Card Kingdom played cards worth over $100, you’ll often not get a better deal than from Card Kingdom. For example, you can sell a heavily played Library of Alexandria to Card Kingdom for 70% of $1,690, equaling $1,183. Star City Games offers $1,000 and ABUGames $918 (though $1,900 in store credit). In terms of cash value, you’ll get a good bit more from Card Kingdom.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

But when you want to sell a played Alpha, Beta, or Unlimited card (abbreviated ABU for short), you’re looking at a different story. Let’s say you have a heavily played Beta Counterspell for sale. How do the three different vendors differ in their buy prices? Well, Card Kingdom pays 40% of $960, which is $384. Meanwhile Star City Games offers $450! ABUGames hasn’t updated their Beta buy prices in a while, so their offer is irrelevant ($240.98).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Armageddon

The bottom line is Card Kingdom loses some of its competitiveness because of their standard downgrade percentage policy. Card Kingdom only pays 40% of their near mint buy price on “Good” (HP) Beta cards. Star City Games has individual pricing for every card—while this may involve more effort, it allows them much more flexibility when dealing with these highly collectible cards. In the case of Armageddon, SCG offers 60% of their near mint price for an HP copy. So even though Card Kingdom pays better on NM copies, SCG pays best on the played stuff.

One last example I wanted to highlight was the bucket of Unlimited Power Nine. First, let’s compare Card Kingdom’s and Star City’s near mint buy prices:

For all nine cards, Card Kingdom pays better than Star City Games. If you have a nice copy of any of these cards and are itching to sell to a store, Card Kingdom would be the way to go. However, what if your copy is heavily played and would be graded as “Good” condition by Card Kingdom? Suddenly, the comparison isn’t so favorable for Card Kingdom:

When dealing with played condition, Star City Games pays a good bit better than Card Kingdom on every single piece of Power Nine—a complete reversal from near mint. Why does this happen? It’s because Card Kingdom applies a flat 40% multiplier for Unlimited cards they downgrade to “Good”. SCG’s percentage is variable, customized based on the card. Here’s a quick comparison of the downgrade percentages from near mint to heavily played, for comparison:

The difference is clear: applying a customized downgrade percent for a card (presumably based on market data) means Star City Games can be more competitive with their buy prices than Card Kingdom, who applies a constant percentages.

The Implications

Maybe this doesn’t seem like a big deal—you sell your heavily played ABU cards to Star City Games and the nice condition copies to Card Kingdom. Easy enough, right?

While I agree with this strategy in general, I would argue it creates an imbalance in supply when looking to purchase an ABU card. Namely, Card Kingdom ends up with a bunch of EX and VG copies of ABU cards in stock, but rarely has NM and G copies. While they may not get many NM copies simply because the quantity of NM copies of an ABU card is severely limited, I would argue their constant shortage of G copies stems directly from their buylist practices.

Here’s an example: I filtered to Card Kingdom’s Beta cards for sale and then sorted by price, high to low. They have a smattering of high-end Beta cards in stock, including Black Lotus, Timetwister, Ancestral Recall, a couple Dual Lands, etc. But nearly every card they have in stock is graded either EX or VG.

In fact, as I look at their stock of the 100 most valuable cards in Beta (roughly the top third), they have four cards in stock at G condition and five at NM condition, 4% and 5% respectively. The vast majority of their inventory is either EX or VG condition. Again, the low stock of NM inventory could simply reflect their strict grading practices. It could also indicate that collectors are scooping up NM copies with plans to submit for grading.

But on the low condition side, Card Kingdom doesn’t have many “Good” copies of ABU cards for sale because they don’t pay competitively on them. The corollary to this is that Card Kingdom’s sell prices for HP ABU cards are too low relative to the rest of the market. For example, one of the few G cards Card Kingdom has in stock from Beta is Rock Hydra—their asking price is $220.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rock Hydra

Compare that to the cheapest copy for sale on TCGplayer, which is $355. EBay’s cheapest listing is $300, also higher than Card Kingdom’s G copy. While CK’s copy is likely in worse condition than these two other listings, the bottom line is Card Kingdom’s HP copy is the cheapest you can find. It wouldn’t surprise me if that copy was scooped up soon, especially since you can regularly obtain Card Kingdom store credit at a rate of 85%, meaning you can bring your cash price on this card down to $187!

My Call for Action to Card Kingdom

Years and years ago, before Old School was a format and before Alpha and Beta cards were so highly regarded for their rarity and collectability, players were disinterested in played stuff from Magic’s earliest sets. Collectors still existed, but they focused on the nicer copies since they were relatively affordable (compared to today’s prices).

Because of this historical trend, it made sense for vendors to pay aggressively for near mint copies—it’s what collectors were after. Meanwhile, a heavily played Beta rare that saw no tournament play would rot in inventory for ages. I believe this is what led to the significant downgrade percentage practice adopted by Card Kingdom.

But times have changed, and I’d make the argument to Card Kingdom (and every other vendor still using a constant percentage downgrade model on ABU cards) that it’s time to customize these percentages to reflect modern day market dynamics. The reality is, there are a bevy of Old School collectors out there who aren’t so picky on condition anymore. Prices have gotten so high that we have begun embracing played and heavily played copies in order to afford cards for our collection. As long as the card isn’t completely damaged and inked, I don’t care if there’s some edge and surface wear on my Alpha and Beta cards—I can still appreciate their nostalgia regardless.

In addition, Old School players want these once-forgotten cards for actual play!

When was the last time you saw a Hypnotic Specter at a tournament table? Due to power creep, the uncommon has become completely outclassed. But the card is a powerhouse and a staple in Old School. The result: HP copies sell for $300 and MP copies for close to $400!

Because these cards are going to be shuffled by players, you may have an easier time selling HP and MP copies of Beta Hypnotic Specter vs. NM copies. Therefore, it makes little sense to offer such a competitive number on near mint copies, but such an abysmal number on the HP copies. The Old School ABU cards that see play demand higher price points for played copies—these are the copies we want to shuffle up in decks!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hypnotic Specter

Therefore, my call to Card Kingdom is to abolish the standard downgrade percentage practice on ABU cards. I know this will take greater effort, but I know the site already has some sort of proprietary algorithm they use to calculate their buy prices. Perhaps a small upgrade to their algorithm is all they need to implement a more dynamic model for ABU cards.

The hardest part of implementation may not be identifying the algorithm to use (they likely have the data they need already), but updating the website’s code to enable a different interface that showcases the variable downgrade percentages. I’m not a coder, so I don’t know what this may entail. But if Card Kingdom wishes to increase their transactions and improve their inventory on ABU cards, they should consider making this change.

Wrapping It Up

Every time I obtain store credit to Card Kingdom, I try to spend it on a “Good” condition copy of an ABU card. The reason is simple: their prices on these cards are often too low, even discounted relative to the open market. This opportunity stems from their [arguably] antiquated approach to buying ABU cards: a constant downgrade percentage calculation.

Times have changed, Old School players and collectors are content to purchase HP and MP cards to build their decks and fill out their collections. Therefore, I’d argue more favorable downgrade percentages are merited on many ABU cards. This is especially true for Alpha and Beta rares, where supply is so low that I’m willing to grab any affordable copy for my collection. I’ve even been able to quickly sell Alpha and Beta Purelaces with little effort. There is a market for the unplayable rares, simply due to their rarity and collectability.

Star City Games has caught onto this new market dynamic. I hope Card Kingdom will follow suit soon. Otherwise, they can expect to carry an inventory riddled with overpriced EX and VG copies and virtually zero NM and G copies. This trend alone should be a strong indicator to Card Kingdom that their practice could use a little updating.

In the meantime, my recommendation is simple: buy G cards from Card Kingdom if you can catch a restock, sell your NM and EX ABU cards to Card Kingdom to take advantage of their attractive buy prices, and sell your HP cards to Star City Games to get the most for your cards. Actually, if you really want to maximize your ABU collection’s value, you should sell directly to Old School players and collectors—we will gladly purchase your HP Webs and Purelaces, and will likely pay more than any vendor will offer.

It doesn’t matter how unplayable the rares are. When only about 1,100 Alpha and 3,200 Beta copies of a rare exist, grabbing any of them at a good price is an attractive way to own a piece of Magic’s history.

Ten Wild Predictions For Magic in 2022

Posted on December 17, 2021December 17, 2021 by Paul Comeau

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All Aboard The Hype Train

By the time you're reading this, we will already have our first look at spoilers from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. There's still a few weeks left of 2021, but the hype train for the plethora of new Magic coming in 2022 is already leaving the station. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a moment to look ahead to what's in store. With next year's release schedule as a guide, I'll make one wild prediction for each of the major Magic sets coming out. But why stop there? In addition to one wild claim per set, I've included a few bonus predictions for everyone who's ready to go full tinfoil hat into the new year.

Prediction 1: At Least One Bladerunner Reference

The cyberpunk world of Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty is territory I never thought Wizards of the Coast would venture into. Now that they've established that we are indeed going there, I can't help but think of all the classic works of cyberpunk movies and literature I've consumed over the years. From the novels of William Gibson and Neal Stephenson to movies like Bladerunner, I'm a huge fan of all things cyberpunk. I imagine the folks at Wizards are as well, or else we wouldn't find ourselves going to Neo Kamigawa. With that in mind, it's my theory that we will see at least one subtle nod to Ridley Scott's movie masterpiece.

Prediction 2: Unfinity Will Have Perpetual-Type Mechanics Using Peels or Stickers

Legacy games, games where you permanently alter or manipulate the board or pieces as part of the gameplay, have been a growing subgenre in games for nearly a decade or more. Magic has played in this design space over the years as well. Back in 1998 Chaos Confetti and Blacker Lotus were both parts of Magic's first silver-bordered set Unglued. The cards required tearing them into pieces as part of their activation costs, making them the first Magic cards utilizing these kinds of mechanics.

For Unfinity, Wizards will go even deeper into this area of design. We've already seen them explore it in digital form with the perpetual mechanic in Jumpstart: Historic Horizons and Alchemy. Unfinity will allow them to explore similar mechanics in paper form. I think they will do this via peels or stickers, similar to what they did with the MSCHF Secret Lair Plains in November. Cards that transform permanently into other cards, or that permanently upgrade after activation are just some of the possibilities. While we might be peeling the foil off our cards come April, we've yet to get truly outlandish in our predictions, as you'll see.

Prediction 3: We Finally Get Fortifications

The very first Fortification was Future Sight's Darksteel Garrison. Since then, there's been no love for this artifact subtype. A Commander-oriented set feels like the perfect place to finally delve into this unexplored design space. Fortifications have the potential to be powerful tools in the right Commander deck, allowing you to power up your lands in interesting ways. Can you imagine a fortification allowing Commanders with static abilities to function in the Command Zone as if they were on the battlefield? Fortifications have as much, if not more design potential than Vehicles or Equipment. I'm surprised we've yet to see them appear in a set, but a Commander product feels like the best place for them.

Prediction 4: Completion of the Triome Cycle

It's already been revealed that Streets of New Capenna will revolve around three-color demon crime families. With that in mind, it's pretty safe to assume Wizards will complete the cycle of Triomes in this set. Based on the rest of the 2022 roster, it's the most natural setting in which to include them. This feels like such a foregone conclusion I'll be surprised if they don't print them.

I've already tweeted about some other things I'd like to see in Streets of New Capenna:

Call it a bonus prediction, but I think the only thing from my wishlist we are likely to see is the creature type Gangster.

Prediction 5: The Return of Infect/Poison

Infect/poison has been a divisive mechanic over the years. We've not seen any new cards utilizing the mechanic since New Phyrexia. With the return to Dominaria, and in my mind the almost inevitable return of the Phyrexians, the time is right for Infect/poison to return to Magic. This time around, I anticipate poison having benefits as much as drawbacks. Perhaps it will function similarly to the energy mechanic? Giving rewards and powerups for spending poison counters, or for being poisoned sounds like an interesting twist on the mechanic.

Prediction 6: Serialized Original Dual Lands as Chase Cards

This is where we get to full tin-foil hat crazy mode. Like it or not, serialized limited print run cards are the future of Magic collectibility. The mirror-image Viscera Seers we saw in November are only the beginning. If Wizards really wants to get collectors wild for serialized cards though, they need to do something they've never done before. Another art treatment variant isn't going to send folks scrambling to buy sealed product, even if it's serialized.

Reprinting something they've not reprinted in more than two decades, that's how you make collectors go crazy for a product, especially if it's playable in multiple formats. I think a limited reprint of the original dual lands as serialized chase cards would drive collectors into a buying frenzy. Even if they are only available in the most premium version of the product, the excitement around such an action would be unprecedented.

I know you're already typing a multi-part tweet to me about the Reserved List. I don't think Wizards will ever do away with the Reserved List entirely. That said, I have a theory that within the next ten years we will see dual lands come off the list and get reprinted in some capacity. Will it be with Double Masters 2022? I don't know. I promise you though if something like that does happen, serialized numbering will be part of it. I'll share more on the history of the Reserved List, and my perspective on it at some point in the future.

Prediction 7: JumpStart Replaces Core Sets as the New Gateway to Magic

The original JumpStart was a great success. It offered a fun gameplay experience for existing players by mixing the best elements of limited and constructed. More importantly, it was an excellent teaching tool for bringing new players into the game and a great gateway product. I envision JumpStart 2022 continuing that trend, filling the role Core Sets used to play in the product line going forward.

Prediction 8: Vehicle/Equipment Artifacts

Mystery Booster Convention Edition already gave us this playtest card:

For The Brothers War, based on setting alone, I fully expect to see a variety of hybrid vehicle/equipment artifacts. It's a perfect mechanical execution to represent massive mechs fighting each other.

Prediction 9: A Legendary Creature of Urza That Transforms Into a Planeswalker

We've already seen Urza, Lord High Artificer as a creature from Modern Horizons, and had a comedic Urza reference in Unstable, Urza, Academy Headmaster. The Brother's War is the ideal setting to finally give us an Urza that shows his ascent into a planeswalker.

We've been told that the story of The Brothers War will be related to us through "the lens of Dominaria's locations, characters, and victims of the conflict." This puts a lot of doubt on us seeing either of the brothers or any of the other major characters we already know as cards in the set. While that makes any chance of seeing an Urza planeswalker card slim, I can't think of a more appropriate place to print him.

For our last wild theory, we'll step away from specific Magic sets, and look at the Magic product line more generally.

Prediction 10: Wizards Will Phase Out Draft Boosters Next Year

Wizards is already phasing out Draft Boosters in foreign languages starting with Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. The logical next step from this is phasing out the sale of draft boosters entirely. As an avid lover of Limited, it's troubling this is even a possibility we're discussing. How will we draft? What will happen with prereleases? I don't have answers to these questions, but the writing is very much on the wall. I've discussed my issues with Set Boosters and Collector Boosters at length here. Of the two products, I don't feel Set Boosters adequately live up to their role. Unless they morph into a draftable product though, I envision a possible future where no draftable product is sold to consumers.

Closing Thoughts

I don't think most of the ideas I've presented today will actually happen. I do think it's an interesting thought exercise though to imagine extreme possibilities for what could happen within the context of the game. It's these kinds of thought exercises that the folks at Wizards do every day as they build exciting new cards and worlds for us to explore. Do you think any of these predictions have a chance at happening? What are some of your wild predictions about Magic in 2022? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

Real-world Flavor. Latin Authors in Magic Cards

Posted on December 15, 2021December 15, 2021 by Francesco Spagnol

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But who is to guard the guards themselves?
Juvenal

Even when taken out of context, this sentence sounds like a rhetorical question. We will see just how much so. For the moment, let's just say the quotation is from Juvenal's Satires, a group of sixteen poems dealing with social matters in a tone that ranges from ironic to furious. Ivory Guardians, the card it appears on, is an uncommon from Fifth Edition. It's one of just six cards featuring a quotation from an ancient, Latin-speaking author.

An Overview on Latin Authors

In our last installment, we discussed the nine examples of Greek authors quoted in Magic flavor text and mentioned there were only six examples from Latin authors. This number looks even smaller when we consider the fact that half of these quotations come from the same author: Seneca. Two are quotes from his Moral Epistles, and one is from his philosophical dialogue known as "On Providence". The remaining three include quotations from Virgil's epic poem Aeneid, Plautus' comedic play Trinummus, and the aforementioned Juvenal's Satires. Here is the full list in order of printing:

Hurricane (Fifth Edition) Virgil, The Aeneid I vv. 82-85
Ivory Guardians (Fifth Edition) Juvenal, Satires VI 347-348
Soltari Priest (FNM) Seneca, On Providence 5, 10
Maggot Carrier (Eighth Edition) Seneca, Epistles
Mind Stone (Tenth Edition) Plautus, Trinummus II, 2, 88
Dark Tutelage (Magic 2011) Seneca, Epistles

That three quotations out of six are from Seneca is symptomatic of a tendency on the part of the creative team towards choosing a specific kind of works to quote as Magic flavor text. Namely, maxims, proverbs, rhetorical questions, and the like. In this regard, Seneca is an excellent author to quote. He is almost synonymous with the concept of sententia, i.e. a sentence which is concise and memorable at the same time. Just what you need for a quote on a card. We will explore this more later in the article. First, let's analyze the six texts card by card.

Hurricane

The card Hurricane has great flavor. First printed in Alpha, and reprinted many times over, it perfectly conveys the idea of a violent storm mechanically, dealing damage to all players and all flying creatures. Part of its charm no doubt comes from its mirroring of Earthquake, a similar card of great flavor which deals damage to all players and non-flying creatures.

Fifth Edition's printing features this quotation from Virgil: "The raging winds …, settling on the sea, the surges sweep, / Raise liquid mountains, and disclose the deep." Virgil is best known for his epic poem The Aeneid, telling the legendary travels and fights of Aeneas after the fall of Troy. It's a majestic work, packed with action, and also capable of displaying human feelings to the highest level. What we find on this printing of Hurricane though, is something different.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hurricane

The flavor text is informational, almost to the point of pedantry. The card shows a Hurricane in action, and the flavor text describes that action. It's a weak choice for Magic flavor text, and well below our expectations. It's not that different from the case of Alluring Siren and its Homeric quotation which we looked at in our previous piece on Greek authors. At least in that case the card and flavor were closer to fantasy. With Hurricane, Virgil's words describe a storming sea, and the illustration shows a ship in a storm, making the flavor merely descriptive. Let's see if we can find some more interesting flavor.

Ivory Guardians

"But who is to guard the guards themselves?" is quite a famous question, even though not everyone normally knows where it comes from. In this case, it's also on a card few remember. First printed in Legends, Ivory Guardians received this quotation from Juvenal as its flavor text in Fifth Edition. The card is pretty bad. A 3/3 for six mana, Protection from red, and a potential pump is not very exciting. The flavor text, while famous, is equally unexciting in the context of this card. In our culture generally, the quote is much more interesting and frequently misunderstood.

Essentially, the quotation asks: "Who assures us that those who have positions of responsibility in our society deserve our trust? Who tells us that they don't need someone to control them in turn?" Pop culture made it so famous that many people even know the Latin version: "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" It appears in Alan Moore's Watchmen, and the very title of the series comes from that phrase.

The problem in attributing this quotation to Juvenal, is we ignore that he in turn was indirectly quoting Plato's Republic, twisting Plato's original concept with the aim of targeting women (which is the goal of his Sixth Satire). If we read a few lines before and after the quote, we see Juvenal's subject is marital infidelity, a subject less high-minded than Plato's. Also not the most appropriate flavor for a Magic card.

Soltari Priest

Things get better with Soltari Priest. We get our first quote from Seneca: “Fire is the test of gold; adversity of strong men."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soltari Priest

You see immediately the short, striking sentences we described earlier. This one sounds much like a proverb. The card and the quote are both well known. In this case, the card is also playable as well. Originally printed in Tempest, it's a cheap Cleric with good stats and interesting abilities. The card/text couple is a decent choice since the concept of adversity testing strong men is very White-flavored. It's taken from the work On Providence, a short essay written in the Platonic style of dialogue, and deals with the "problem of evil."

Maggot Carrier

“We do not suddenly fall on death, but advance towards it by slight degrees; we die every day” is another quotation from Seneca, this time from his Moral Epistles. It's another strong sentence that seems almost tailored for being quoted. It appears on the Eighth Edition reprint of Maggot Carrier, a common Zombie with a great illustration by Ron Spencer. While not a particularly powerful card, a cheap creature that makes each player lose one life when entering the battlefield is at least something. As for the quotation, the shift from dialogue to letter does not change the substance. It's another of Seneca's philosophical maxims.

Mind Stone

"Not by age but by capacity is wisdom gained," is a quote from Plautus's Trinummus. It appears on the Tenth Edition printing of Mind Stone, probably the most played card among the six we are analyzing today. Mind Stone sees a lot of action in Commander and has multiple reprints. Originally printed in Weatherlight, without flavor, the Plautus quote appears only on the Tenth Edition printing. The quote and the card are both good. Whether they go well together is another matter. A quote about wisdom is a strange fit for a magical artifact, other than that it has "Mind" in its name.

Dark Tutelage

"It is a rough road that leads to the heights of greatness." Three quotations from Seneca, three wise proverbs. This is the best combination of card and flavor we've seen. It has echoes of Dark Confidant, in both flavor and function. It's ironic when you consider how old this quotation is. The flavor of Dark Confidant, "Greatness, at any cost" feels like a variation of the same concept. Both cards have similar functionality, allowing you to draw cards in exchange for life.

Greek and Latin Quotations in Summary

By considering both Greek and Latin quotations together we see the Classical World appears in flavor from a variety of literary genres. What qualities do all these texts share? They are all obviously short quotations, but more importantly, they are all self-sufficient even when taken out of their context. This doesn't mean their meaning stays the same. On the contrary, the vast majority of these quotations display one meaning when considered on their own, and another meaning when considered in the context of the whole work from which they come. Juvenal's sentence about guards is the clearest evidence of this tendency, as we discussed, but this is true for most of the examples we've looked at.

Missed Opportunities?

I love the fact that 15 unique cards exist with flavor text from Greek and Latin literature. I can't deny though, that several choices are a bit unimpressive, or plainly lame. The grandiosity of excerpts such as Achilles' dream of Patroclus, or the poignancy of reflections about dying a little every day, almost gets lost on Magic cards, which, after all, tend towards levity. This tendency, in my opinion, has grown throughout the course of Magic's history. As a consequence, after a few years, there was no point mixing this kind of literary thought with this kind of entertainment product.

I feel like a different kind of approach was possible, and perhaps might still be possible in the future. The way to go, if you want to sporadically include some real-world quotations in Magic flavor text, is keeping in mind what audience is going to consume them. Greek and Latin literature is not limited to a few witty sentences and some pathetic passages. There is more useful material in that body of literature to take advantage of and give the audience something closer to entertainment and less to an academic lesson.

Cheap Choices

As an example, I believe quoting Seneca is a cheap choice and doesn't pay. Sure, he seems like an almost perfect source of quotes, but that is an illusion. Many passages that would make thrilling quotations don't come as "perfect quotes". You have to search for them, you need to know your Greek and Latin, and not limit the search to what people think that world is. Otherwise, you're going to replicate the same tedious series of quotes that make people run away.

Even when you choose an author who should technically be funny, such as Plautus, there is a high risk of repeating the pattern. Ironically, the very quotation from a comedic genius like Plautus sounds very much like a random maxim by Seneca. That happens for two reasons: first, Trinummus is one of the latest works from Plautus and possibly the most serious and monotonous (not to say dull) among his plays. Second, the sentence has been chosen without considering the context of the card on which it appeared, or the audience. The moralistic tone simply doesn't work.

Some Proposals

If I was on the creative team, I'd make the case for using real-world quotations for flavor once more. As part of my argument, I'd say that some of the best authors to quote for use in Magic flavor have been totally neglected. I'd cite the Greek author Lucian of Samosata as one such example. Lucian was the author of True History, the earliest known work deserving of the definition "science fiction." In True History, we find alien forms of life, interplanetary wars, and travels beyond our world, in addition to beautiful passages concerning dreams and nightmares.

Another example I'd cite is the Latin author Apuleius. Apuleius wrote the first example we have of a novel with his Metamorphoses (also known as Asinus Aureus, or The Golden Ass). In Metamorphoses, we find a protagonist whose curiosity is so stinging that he is willing to do anything to practice magic and unravel the mysteries surrounding him.

One last example I'd cite is the Greek author and historian Herodotus. Often credited as "The Father of History", Herodotus was the first historiographer, that is, the first author to systematically investigate the facts of events of which he wrote. That didn't stop him from including tall tales and legends in his histories though, leading critics to call him "The Father of Lies." Some of his tales might be far-fetched, but they're certainly interesting.

The Future of Magic Flavor

Maybe there will come a time in the future when we will again see texts from Latin and Greek authors in Magic flavor. If that happens, we hope the creative team will take an approach such as what we described above. As we demonstrated in these last two pieces, some of the flavor they've used in the past was not always effective. As for us, we are finished with the classical world. In the next installment, we move on to explore some very different cultures and their appearances in Magic flavor.

All That Remains: An Unban Examination

Posted on December 15, 2021January 11, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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As the year comes to an end it's time to reflect on that which has happened and that which may yet be. The former is easy enough. Thanks to the pandemic, nothing happened, and nothing continues to happen. Frustration. The latter is quite fun. And rather cathartic. So I'm going to ignore the nothing that was 2021 and focus on what might happen in 2022. I'd settle for something happening, preferably good. And in terms of Magic, that usually means what will happen in terms of banned cards. Or, in rare circumstances, an unbanning.

The last card to be unbanned in Modern was Stoneforge Mystic in August 2019. Wizards didn't explicitly say so, but everyone saw it as compensation for Hogaak Summer and all the cards that had to be banned then. However, the two subsequent years have seen the most annual bans in Magic's history, and yet nothing has come off. There are good reasons for no unbans. However, that doesn't dissuade players from speculating nor does it mean that unbans are off the table. It does mean that players need to have realistic expectations. A recent MTGO event has reignited discussion and set some unrealistic goals, and I'll be addressing that today.

The Modern Banned Gauntlet

From December 1-8, Wizards ran a special event on MTGO, the Modern Banned Gauntlet. The premise was that every player would select a preconstructed deck and then battle. Said decks were the decks that got the card banned (theoretically) and it was a battle royale of the most broken decks in Modern. The implication in the wording of the announcement was that this was Wizards looking for data on banned cards in advance of an unbanning. However, I stress that it was the implication and was not stated anywhere. Nor is there anything to corroborate it being Wizards' actual intention. However, I saw plenty of commentary online saying that, so clearly players thought of it as such.

Reality Check

Which is unfortunate because if data creation/collection was the intention, this was a terrible method. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate Wizards running this event. In fact, I think that Wizards should do another Gauntlet and more similar events because it's perfect for online play. Something like this would be prohibitive logistically (and possibly financially) in paper, but it's simple on MTGO. I do encourage any Wizards employees reading this to advocate for another Gauntlet and to push for similar events.

That said, anyone trying to use the results of the gauntlet to prove anything is wrong. Just click the link to the event and look at the decks there, really look at them. Did anyone actually think that a Bant Charm-splashing Zoo deck from 2011 would do well? Never mind hanging with 2019 Hogaak, how does a deck like that answer 2016 Eldrazi or 2015 Splinter Twin? It's just absurd to think that these decks are at all equivalent or that this was a good test of relative strength. As I led with, every deck was chosen from the time when the card was banned. They're tuned for widely disparate metagames and very different cardpools. Had Wizards allowed players to brew with the banned cards there would have been something to the event and the results it generated. But as-is, it was just a gimmick. There are no conclusions to be drawn from the Gauntlet. It was very fun, though.

Players Are Still Talking

Not that it won't stop players from talking. Fortunately, I've mostly seen players being level-headed about the Gauntlet and echoing my sentiments. It was quite a relief watching twitter reactions and seeing players discuss the decks being suboptimal and how they'd rebuild given the option. I was also surprised that the Treasure Cruise deck appeared to do so well. Wizards has not and probably never will release any data about the event, which sucks. I strongly suspect that Hogaak, Risen Necropolis was the clear winner, but without hard evidence I cannot say for certain. Nor can we use the data to extrapolate about the relative strength of any of the cards.

However, the anecdotal evidence suggests I was right. Comments and tweets indicate Hogaak performed best with Treasure Cruise aggro second and UW Eldrazi third. Twin, Pod, and Bloom Titan were pretty good but were most discussed in terms of needing a rebuild. Players were generally perplexed by Oko, Thief of Crowns being highlighted by a Ponza deck. Sunny Side Up was okay at best, if really annoying to play against. Considering that was the experience at the time, I'd say the gauntlet was a success in terms of explaining why Second Sunrise is banned.

However, I reiterate that just because players had certain experiences with the gauntlet, there's no reason to think they apply to current Modern. A lot of new and very powerful cards have entered Modern since Hogaak was banned. It's unlikely that the experience would be the same. Hogaak is still way too good, but we'd have a different experience and hate the gameplay for different reasons today than in 2019. And that's the reality that must be considered when discussing unbans.

What is Unbannable?

There was a time that discussing unbans was simple. When Wizards created Modern a lot of cards were preemptively banned. Wizards wanted a clean break from several less-than-optimal Standard and Extended metagames and so ensured that the best decks from them wouldn't define the new format. Over the years those cards have been gradually unbanned at a rate of roughly one every year, until all that's left from the original list are the absurdly unacceptable cards and all the cards that have earned a ban over Modern's lifetime. Which may explain why there's been no unbans since 2019, the longest streak in Modern's history. Which in turn suggests that Wizards doesn't think anything is unbannable anymore.

Wizards' Standards

Which is pure speculation because I don't know precisely how Wizards decides on unbans. Over the years, the general thread has simply been "We think this card is fine now." Often (but not always) it's been accompanied by a hope that the unbanned card will enable or enhance an archetype or strategy that is currently or historically struggling in Modern. As mentioned earlier, the unbans have also frequently accompanied major bannings. Golgari Grave-Troll's unban is the only one I recall Wizards explicitly saying that they were doing it then as compensation for the banning cards, but plenty of others have felt that way. All of which is quite ambiguous and leaves a lot of room for speculation on our part and discretion on Wizards' part.

The Problem

None of these observations bode well for the future of unbanning cards. We had the largest single ban since Modern's inception in February, and there were no compensatory unbans. Modern is now quite diverse, with many different strategies doing well. The only lacking strategy is combo and there's reason to think Wizards is fine with that. And given that the pace of unbans has slowed down since Grave-Troll was rebanned, there's reason to think that Wizards simply doesn't think that any cards are sufficiently fine now to take the risk. Once bitten, twice shy, as the saying goes; Wizards really doesn't want a repeat. When Stoneforge Mystic was unbanned they were emphatic about how risky they thought it was precisely to temper expectations in Grave-Troll's wake.

However, even if that wasn't the case, I'd still expect there to be very few unbans at all going forward. Unbanning cards is a great way to shake up a stale or suffering format, and Modern definitely isn't either of those things. I've heard that Modern is replacing Standard as the most played paper format, and just look at the churn evident in my metagame updates. Unbannings are a finite resource, and Wizards isn't going to just unban something to unban something. They need to be strategic and save it for when Modern really needs it, and so long as their current design continues to push lots of cards into Modern every year, they'll never needs to unban something just to shake things up. Thus, the likelihood of unbannings has dropped.

Is Anything Unbannable?

And now to address the big question hanging over everything. Given Wizards' inclinations, Modern's reality, and the cards actually on the Banned and Restricted List, are any unbannable at all? And that is a really good question. I'm on the record thinking that the Mirrodin artifact lands (weird that I need to specify the expansion now) and Second Sunrise could be unbanned, and I still do. However, I've also added caveats that there are risks involved in doing so. They're not clean unbans, and I don't think there are any of those anymore. There may never have been any at all... wait, there was Wild Nacatl. But other than Nacatl there were good reasons to worry about every unbanned card causing problems either in early Modern or down the line. And while time and power creep have made Ancestral Visions and Bitterblossom obsolete, Valakut the Molten Pinnacle continues to be a strong card.

As such, it's important to remember that every unban is a risk vs. reward question. If the risk of overpowering a current deck is higher than the rewards of adding the card, the unban shouldn't occur. However, as Grave-Troll showed, sometimes it's not the current Modern that's the risk but the future. Sword of the Meek did nothing in Modern until Urza, Lord High Artificer was printed. Wizards knows what's actually coming down the pipe and there may well be cards in the near future which might bust a card that seems innocuous. Therefore, we need to be careful about what cards we consider.

Unban Candidates

So, given all the hedging and qualifying I've done this article, what do I think could be unbanned? Frankly, the cards I've already mentioned, Sunrise and Ancient Den's cohort. And for the same reasons I did back in 2019. I'm tempted to just relink that article again and call it a day. However, my word count is not yet acceptable so I will continue. The problem is that there really aren't cards that strike me as low-risk and reasonable reward besides the aforementioned. There are lots of low-reward cards and some that are high-risk, high-reward as far as Modern as a whole is concerned. However, I do have an argument about one, fairly unexpected banned card that could be unbanned if Wizards is feeling adventurous.

Blazing Shoal

Blazing Shoal was banned because it's a turn 2 kill with Glistener Elf and a turn 3 kill with any other infect creature. Back in 2011, the only answers were Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile. Thus, in 2011, Infect killed too early too often and had to be nerfed.

Modern has changed a lot since then, especially in the past year with the evoke elementals and Prismatic Ending. There's enough removal now that the early Infect kill would be harder to accomplish, and the format has moved in a direction that precludes filling a deck with clunky uncastable spells to pitch to Shoal. It might not be good enough anymore.

Or it may still be an unacceptably fast kill made worse because the protection for it has also gotten better. It's not just that there's more removal; Blossoming Defense, Force of Negation, and Veil of Summer exist now to stop said removal. By unbanning Shoal, Wizards would be making a bet that their removal push is sufficient to answer one of Modern's fastest kills and/or their push towards Legacy-style card efficiency ensures that players can't take the risk on the deck.

Which is part of my ulterior motive with this unban suggestion. I want to know how confident Wizards actually is about the format they've designed, and Shoal presents a distinct challenge to that status quo. With a secondary secret motive that if Shoal's gameplay isn't answerable or acceptable, why do we tolerate Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer?

Splinter Twin?

Given my history, some readers may have expected my new unban suggestion to be Splinter Twin. And it isn't. I'm open to Twin being merely okay in Modern as opposed to dominating it as happened in 2015. However, the past two years have seen Izzet decks of varying archetype sit firmly in Tier 1. It seems unwise to give them yet another option. Maybe down the line when UR needs a boost, but certainly not now.

Temper Expectations

That being said, don't expect any unbans in Modern anytime soon. It seems to me that Wizards has better reason to keep cards banned than to unban anything. However, there's no way to know and it's equally possible that the Gauntlet heralds a major change. Just don't let hope overrule reason.

A Twitter Question Worthy of an Article

Posted on December 13, 2021December 12, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Inspiration for my weekly articles can come from the most unexpected places. Sometimes it’s a conversation I have with a co-worker, sometimes it’s a transaction, or sometimes it’s a market trend that’s too strong to ignore.

And sometimes, it’s a simple tweet.

That’s the case for this week—Ryan V (@MtgandFitness) copied me on a tweet recently with a simple-sounding, yet challenging question.

This kind of question is right up my alley as it deals with older cards, a sector of the market I pay close attention to. But it goes beyond just old cards—there are actually a number of cards that are expensive and aren’t on the Reserved List. As such, they should be on everyone’s radar as a potential reprint risk. Let’s take a look at some of the candidates I considered in answering this question.

My First Reaction: The Most Valuable non-RL Card Is…

I overlooked the “oldest” qualifier in the question when I first read it. Therefore, I went to Card Kingdom’s website, sorted by value, and went through the list of cards until I found something that is not on the Reserved List and hasn’t been reprinted.

While it is a reprint itself, I made the [admittedly very loose] argument that the Japanese alt-art, Promotional Liliana, Dreadhorde General from War of the Spark was the most valuable non-Reserved List card. Technically, this version with this artwork hasn’t been reprinted since, so that was my qualifier when I shared this result. While you can argue it’s not old and it’s been reprinted, there can be little argument that this is the most valuable non-Reserved List card out there. At least, it’s the most valuable one that was printed in a normal, formally released set, non-misprint set (see how this can grow complex really quickly?).

From a finance standpoint, the price tag on this card makes it extremely vulnerable to reprint. I suppose the promotional printing of this card can never be reprinted—not with the same date stamp, at least. But if (when?) Wizards decides this card needs a reprint with this artwork in some custom product, expect this price to drop. Until then, however, I suppose the sky is the limit. I certainly have no plans to park any of my money in this card.

My Serious Answer: Portal 3 Kingdoms Cards

OK, so my first response was kind of cheating. It’s a reprint, it’s a promotional printing of a card, and it most definitely isn’t “old”. After being rightfully called out on my “cheese” answer, I took another shot at providing a more interesting answer.

That’s when it hit me – Portal: 3 Kingdoms cards would be great candidates for this question! The set came out in 1999, so the set is over 21 years old at this point; it is old enough to drink in the United States! In fact, it is so old that it could arguably have been included as part of WOTC’s reprint policy. The last set to be included in their policy was Urza’s Destiny, which came out a month after Portal: 3 Kingdoms.

Fortunately, Portal cards weren’t included in the Reserved List, so reprints of this set are fair game. To find the most valuable card in the set that hasn’t been reprinted, I simply sorted the set by price (high to low) and voila!

Hold on a second! Imperial Seal has been reprinted. It was a judge foil from 2016. That disqualifies it for the question as it was posed to me. Therefore, the winner must be…Zodiac Dragon!

The overcosted dragon creature card from Portal: 3 Kingdoms is old, has never been reprinted and isn’t on the Reserved List. It certainly is valuable, retailing north of $700. This is my official answer to the Twitter question.

From a finance standpoint, I’m neutral on holding some of these Portal: 3 Kingdoms cards for the long term. They aren’t on the Reserved List, and Wizards of the Coast has reprinted a number of these already. While Imperial Seal’s price didn’t seem to drop very much with a judge promo reprint, a more serious reprint could have more damaging effects.

And it’s hard to quantify the negative effects even a judge promo printing can have on a card. When Capture of Jingzhou was reprinted as a judge promo in 2017, the P3K printing definitely saw some pricing pressure. It took a couple years to recover, and eventually the card got back to its previous highs…but who knows how much higher it could have been, had it not been reprinted.

On the positive side, these cards are very difficult to reprint outside of a one-off thing, like judge promos. Wizards stopped printing cards that are designed off of real-life stories a long time ago, making it highly unlikely we see a new set like this one. I suppose some of these cards can show up in some sort of masters set, but this will happen gradually and likely one or two at a time.

With such a limited print run in English, I give folks the green light to invest here if they wish. I’d personally prefer something that is legitimately on the Reserved List, so I have WOTC’s assurance it won’t be reprinted. But these cards are rare, old, and difficult enough to reprint that they seem like a safe bet. Even when they have been reprinted in the past, they’ve recovered their price sufficiently to limit downside risk. The only challenge may be finding the market for this card—while it’s valuable, I can’t imagine you’d find collectors willing to pay $700 for a Zodiac Dragon every day of the week. An Underground Sea would be far more liquid and offers plenty of upside as well.

Honorable Mentions

While Zodiac Dragon was my official answer to the Twitter question, I continued brainstorming ideas that could have also been reasonable responses.

Before I could respond again, Michael Caffrey of Tales of Adventure offered his best answer:

This is a solid one given its $80 retail price tag. I personally think Zodiac Dragon was a better answer, but the enchantment from Shadowmoor is over 13 years old already and is surprisingly expensive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greater Auramancy

Another viable answer to the question was given to me by a Twitter/Discord friend of mine: Ydwen Efreet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ydwen Efreet

The red creature with an anagrammed name (“Wendy”) is a rare (U1?) from Arabian Nights, so it has every right to be on the Reserved List. But it isn’t. It also has never seen a reprint. I don’t know why, honestly, but the result is a $100 card. This definitely deserves an honorable mention.

Shevek_mtg (@ShevekMtg) chimed in with another interesting contender: Ice Storm.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ice Storm

This isn’t the most valuable card on the list, but it is probably the oldest, valuable card that hasn’t been reprinted since Unlimited that isn’t on the Reserved List. It’s rather surprising, in a way, that this card has not been reprinted since 1993. It’s not overpowered, it isn’t hard to understand, and it doesn’t depict some real-life story. I suspect the only reason it hasn’t been reprinted is because it breaks the color pie. Green doesn’t normally destroy lands (though Tsunami and Creeping Mold have seen reprints aplenty).

From a finance standpoint, I’d be nervous about holding these cards. I suppose if they dodged reprint for a decade or two already, there is precedent that suggests WOTC doesn’t plan on reprinting them. But if you’re going to park some money in Magic cards, I see little reason to buy an Ice Storm or a Ydwen Efreet over something comparably priced, comparably aged, and isn’t on the Reserved List. Put that money in a Singing Tree or a Two-Headed Giant of Foriys instead, and you’ll have the same upside without the reprint risk.

Wrapping It Up

This question seemed really simple on its face, but it became a deep investigation into the history of Magic. It inspired me to research cards from a wide array of sets, ranging from Unlimited through War of the Spark! I looked at promotional cards, Portal cards, and everything in between. And my search wasn’t even close to exhaustive.

For example, I could have tried to find a card from Summer Edgar to provide as an answer. I’m not sure if there are any cards in that set that hasn’t been reprinted since, but there are certainly many valuable cards in the set that aren’t on the Reserved List. I could have also called out a specific misprint or unique card as a “cheese” answer.

I’m sure Shichiukujin Dragon would be more expensive than Zodiac Dragon. It’s also older, has never been reprinted, and isn’t on the Reserved List.

But this is probably cheating, right? I just mention this (along with the Richard Garfield proposal card, kid announcement card, etc.) so that people know I did at least consider them.

I’m sure there are other cards I overlooked, however. Do you have a legitimate submission to consider for Ryan V’s question? Feel free to submit them to me on Twitter (@sigfig8). I’m really happy he posed the question to me, and I encourage readers and followers to send me similar questions whenever they’d like. It just may be the inspiration for my next Quiet Speculation article!