menu

The Foreign Black Border Upswing

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Remember the days when Old School cards were inexpensive and undesirable by most players? At GP Vegas in 2015, I remember walking around from vendor to vendor asking for cards like Juzam Djinn, Chaos Orb, and Beta Mind Twist. Nearly every vendor at the show didn’t bother to bring such illiquid, hard-to-sell cards.

Nowadays, between the explosion of Old School’s popularity and the advent of the “Reserved List buyouts of 2020”, these cards are readily available. The only catch is they’re more than ten times their 2015 pricing!

The result: many popular Old School cards, especially those that also see Commander play, have gotten away from many in the community. Prices have become so prohibitively expensive that the community has begun reaching for budget alternatives. Unfortunately, this has driven up the price of the budget black-bordered options as well!

Everyone knows about cheaper alternatives like Italian Legends, so I won’t dwell on those kinds of options. Instead, this week I’ll examine other black-bordered budget printings for Old School / Commander, discuss pricing, and talk about where one can buy or sell some of the more obscure options.

Copy Artifact: A Case Study

While browsing MTG Stocks Sunday morning, I noticed Copy Artifact was on the climb—it’s a likely buyout candidate but also sees significant play in Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Copy Artifact

In 2015 during Grand Prix Las Vegas, as I was hunting for Old School cards, Revised Copy Artifact was $5. Today it shows as $66 on MTG Stocks and its market price is $50. That’s 1000% in price appreciation in just five years!

Obviously more prestigious printings from Beta and Alpha are even more expensive. Beta Copy Artifact’s market price is nearly $600 and Card Kingdom is completely out of stock, with $650 as their near mint price. Black bordered copies are simply out of reach, right?

Not necessarily! There are Foreign Black Border (FBB) options as well as Collectors’ Edition, for those not worried about tournament legality. Surely, those are going to be significantly cheaper, right?

That depends on how you define “significantly”. There was a time not too long ago (maybe ~2017-2018) when these would have been dirt cheap. In fact, Collectors’ Edition Copy Artifacts were under $10 in through 2017—a great budget option for players! Today’s price: nearly $50! In fact, it’s cheaper to purchase a heavily played Revised copy than it is a Collectors’ Edition copy!

FBB options have also jumped in kind. Market pricing on TCGplayer is $60—I am not sure what the price was in 2017, but I’m pretty confident it was a lot less! Perhaps the most budget option is the Foreign White Border “FWB” printing—good luck finding cheap copies outside of Europe, though. A quick search on TCGplayer and eBay suggests HP Revised is still cheapest. ABUGames prices FWB at about the same value as Revised, so all copies have climbed up in price in step.

Suddenly, budget options—especially with black borders—aren’t so “budget” anymore.

The Rise of Foreign Black Border

Copy Artifact may be special because it’s on the Reserved List, but it’s certainly no exception. Even non-RL cards popular in Old School and Commander have gotten pricey lately, lifting FBB and CE/IE versions. The result: some surprisingly expensive cards!

Looking up pricing on these cards can be tricky. Often times, popular FBB cards are too few in stock on TCGplayer and eBay in order to determine an accurate value. Card Kingdom doesn’t buy or sell FBB cards. Star City Games does, but their buy prices are significantly below market value.

Your best bet for pricing out FBB cards is ABUGames. If you don’t want to see inflated sell prices, you can examine what they’re willing to pay in cash. Here’s an example: Mana Vault.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Vault

Star City Games pays $20 in cash for FBB 1994 German Mana Vault—that’s less than they pay for white-bordered Revised copies, by the way ($30). ABUGames also pays around $30 cash for Revised Mana Vault. But their buy price for FBB 1994 German copies is $88.74 cash! That’s more than four times SCG’s offer! Honestly, this is a much closer approximation to this card’s value, driven by Commander demand no doubt.

These once eschewed printings have truly surged in price, often eclipsing their Revised counterparts. The demand for black-bordered printings of these cards is real.

Here’s another example: FBB German 1994 Mind Twist can be sold to ABUGames for $33.66! Compare that to their buy price on Revised copies, $2.64. Clearly the black-bordered printing is driving up price—it’s good to know there is an attractive buylist outlet in case you have some copies you want to sell and are having difficulty moving them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mind Twist

While not tournament legal, Collectors’ Edition copies of these popular black-bordered cards have also climbed drastically in the past couple years. If you’re looking to price these out, there are more references. TCGplayer usually has at least a few copies of each CE/IE card in stock, so that could be a good first choice. But unlike FBB, many vendors will pay up for CE/IE printings nowadays. Card Kingdom has a fairly robust buylist for CE/IE. Even Star City Games is in the ballpark of the other two (though still not the best option).

If you really want to a challenge, you could deal in FBB printings from Japanese Chronicles and Renaissance sets. It turns out Star City Games has buy prices for these as well, though again I wouldn’t use their buylist to unload these obscure cards unless you’re absolutely desperate to liquidate.

While receiving $5 for a Japanese Chronicles copy of any card other than Blood Moon may seem attractive, I assure you the card is worth significantly more. Unfortunately, we can’t use any other vendor to estimate pricing—even ABUGames doesn’t have these printings listed on their buy list. So in this case, we have no choice but to rely on TCGPlayer and eBay.

See what I mean when I say Star City Games’ buy prices are only last resort? Why sell for $5 when you could sell for $35 on TCGplayer? The cheapest Renaissance copy for sale right now is MP, $38.75.

Japanese Chronicles are cheaper—the lowest price on TCGplayer is $11.99 for a moderately played copy (eBay is consistent in price). Still, that’s more than double SCG’s offer of $5, and a far better option to try and sell these cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Erhnam Djinn

In my opinion, if you’re looking to maximize value from your cards and move them with fairly reliable liquidity, you should check out the Old School Discord. I’m seeing frequent sales posts there recently, containing FBB and CE/IE cards, and they always seem to sell for more than I anticipated they would.

A Nod To Collectors’ Edition

I’ve written about Collectors’ Edition and International Collectors’ Edition in the past, so I won’t dwell long on this bucket of cards. But to complete this week’s article, I need to at least mention how these budget black-bordered alternatives have also climbed steadily in price over the past couple years.

The most desirable cards from these sets—Power, duals, etc.—have really become expensive of late. Nice CE moxes, for example, readily sell for $450 nowadays and someone is always looking to buy in the Old School Discord. But even the less-than-playable CE cards, such as Dingus Egg, can be buylisted for a couple bucks nowadays. In fact, Card Kingdom has 270 Collectors’ Edition cards listed on their buylist—almost any CE card is worth at least something nowadays! Even lowly War Mammoth can be buylisted for $0.23!

Clearly, these rectangular, black-bordered cards are worth digging out if you’re sitting on any. While they’re not tournament legal, they still hold some allure for players seeking budget black-bordered options for their Old School / Commander decks. These cards have done nothing but appreciate in value over the past couple years. Consider how CE moxes were just $100 three years ago and now they have gone up fivefold!

Wrapping It Up

When the Old School format took off, many once-forgotten cards suddenly surged in price. There was a window of a couple years when budget black-bordered cards were available at a significant discount to their English counterparts.

Now, with Commander and Old School prices soaring again thanks to the daily Reserved List buyouts, players are reaching for these once-inexpensive alternatives for their decks. But unlike a few years ago, this time FBB and CE/IE options are not nearly so cheap. Many have taken off in price, and are often more costly than Revised or Chronicles alternatives.

I believe this trend will continue. Other budget options are also likely to see gains, such as Gold-Bordered cards and Foreign White Bordered (FWB) printings. But just because this trend exists doesn’t mean it’s easy to profit on it. These cards are a little tougher to sell, and buylists are sparse (ABUGames is probably your best bet). Luckily as this market heats up, these cards are suddenly more liquid than ever before.

One look at the Old School Discord, and I’m confident these cards are suddenly desirable. Thus, I wanted to highlight this trend—this way, players now aware of the trend can dig out their FBB cards and help bring them to the market, making a few bucks along the way and helping out some players who are trying to navigate a volatile market filled with buyouts. After all, this new trend seems like it’ll be around for at least a bit longer.

August ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 2: Bant from TV

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Earlier in the month, we saw Stoneforge Mystic come to form the backbone not just of popular UW and Stoneblade decks, but of Colossus Hammer combo decks and bulkier flash strategies. Blue aggro-control decks also had an interesting month, with Arclight Phoenix making a comeback and Devotion to Blue rearing its head. The latter trend continues into the end of August, with blue decks dipping into white and green for support. The kicker? Not all of these decks even play Uro!

...But a Lot of Them Play Do Uro

I mean, it'd be almost wrong not to, right? We'll start by looking at the more traditional Uro-style shells that experimented with new tech this month.

Uro Hour, TOASTXP (19th, Challenge #12195644)

Creatures

4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

3 Cryptic Command
3 Force of Negation
4 Growth Spiral
4 Path to Exile
4 Remand

Sorceries

4 Hour of Promise
1 Supreme Verdict

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
2 Field of Ruin
2 Field of the Dead
4 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Irrigated Farmland
2 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Mystic Sanctuary
2 Polluted Delta
1 Prismatic Vista
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Forest
2 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard

1 Supreme Verdict
4 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Dovin's Veto
1 Elder Gargaroth
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
1 Timely Reinforcements
2 Veil of Summer

We've seen midrange decks lean on other plans but still rely on 4 Hour of Promise before, most notably the Jund Field deck we covered in May. That was during the companions' reign over Modern, although the same concept still applies.

Uro Hour plays a controlling game with blue-chip countermagic and Uro itself, but should opponents find a way to deal with the Titan—via grave hate, perhaps—Hour provides an independent alternative, generating hordes of Zombies with Field of the Dead. It's especially nice that Growth Spiral, a staple in Uro shells, also contributes significantly to the Field plan, even though the two strategies require totally different answers: Uro demands grave hate and heavy-duty removal while drawing cards and going tall, while Field requires nonbasic land hate and damage-based sweepers while going wide.

Bant Moss, DARZYN (5-0)

Creatures

3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Noble Hierarch
3 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Karn, the Great Creator

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Artifacts

1 Batterskull
1 Sword of Fire and Ice

Sorceries

4 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
1 Flooded Strand
4 Forest
3 Ghost Quarter
1 Hallowed Fountain
2 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Plains
2 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

4 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Damping Sphere
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Knowledge Pool
1 Liquimetal Coating
1 Pithing Needle
2 Shadow of Doubt
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship

I first picked up on Bant Moss early this month (see list above). While the deck looked interesting, I found myself scratching my head at the prospect of running 4 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss in a Modern midrange deck. I mean, it's a land destruction spell that costs four mana! Was that not too much for a type of card typically used to deny opponents mana early on?

It turns out that in Uro mirrors, ramping yourself while de-ramping opponents is the sauce, even if that's not to happen until the mid-game. Indeed, Bant Moss nabbed 4-1 in a preliminary at the end of the month, a testament to its potential viability. And the deck has more going on than first met my eye.

For one, there's the creature suite: Uro is backed up by Scavenging Ooze, something of an Uro-slayer in the mirror; it can out-grow 6/6 and handily removes Titans from an opponent's graveyard. Similarly, bouncing Uro with Teferi, Time Raveler provides a massive tempo swing, and cutting Uro decks off their permission is also the sauce. Then there's Stoneforge Mystic to cheese wins against aggro and have a grave-independent angle of attack. Sword of Fire and Ice gets the nod for insulating creatures against Uro, sure, but also Aether Gust, fast becoming one of Modern's premier hate cards.

tl;dr: meet the Uro deck that wins the mirror.

Going Dude

Uro decks tend to be creature-light, since the recurring behemoth is at its best when it makes up the bulk of a red-zone attack. So more creature-centric Bant decks trim its numbers. Still, I think it's great news that such decks exist; this scenario illustrates that Uro is not dominating the UGx color quotient as it once may have.

Bant Rashmi, BBOTONLINE (5-0)

Creatures

3 Rashmi, Eternities Crafter
1 Birds of Paradise
3 Brazen Borrower
3 Elder Gargaroth
4 Frilled Mystic
4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Prophet of Kruphix
2 Restoration Angel
4 Spell Queller
2 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

3 Force of Negation

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
3 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Horizon Canopy
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Snow-Covered Forest
2 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Temple Garden
1 Waterlogged Grove
3 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Mystical Dispute
1 Stony Silence
2 Veil of Summer
2 Weather the Storm

Rashmi, Eternities Crafter was hardly singled out as a Modern-playable upon its release, costing enough to emerge on the turn many decks end the game by and refusing to trigger until the next turn. But Bant Rashimi wouldn't take no for an answer, employing the Druid alongside a suite of useful flash creatures to get the most out of it.

Hitting all those cascade triggers is sure to get out of hand quickly, and Force of Negation holds things together by protecting Rashmi while players are tapped out after deploying him. For future turns, Spell Queller does that job, also combo-ing with Teferi to lock opponents' spells away for good. And both Force and Queller trigger Rashmi for even more pseudo-cascades!

Reclaimer Toolbox, HOUSEOFMANAMTG (23rd, Challenge #12195644)

Creatures

4 Elvish Reclaimer
4 Dryad of the Ilysian Grove
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Courser of Kruphix
2 Sakura-Tribe Elder
2 Tireless Tracker
2 Primeval Titan
1 Arasta of the Endless Web
1 Elder Gargaroth
1 Eternal Witness
2 Golos, Tireless Pilgrim
1 Knight of the Reliquary
1 Nylea, Keen-Eyed
1 Ramunap Excavator

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

2 Eladamri's Call

Lands

1 Blast Zone
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Castle Garenbrig
2 Field of the Dead
4 Flagstones of Trokair
3 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Plains
1 Radiant Fountain
1 Selesnya Sanctuary
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Plains
2 Temple Garden
2 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
1 Vesuva
3 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Arasta of the Endless Web
2 Aven Mindcensor
2 Celestial Purge
3 Damping Sphere
2 Eidolon of Rhetoric
2 Knight of Autumn
3 Path to Exile

Didn't I tell ya? No Uro! Instead, Reclaimer Toolbox maxes out on Elvish Reclaimer to enable both a beatdown plan and a packed land toolbox suite; it's got Blast Zone for removal, Flagstones for ramping, Bog for graveyard interaction, Quarter for land hate, Field for midrange games, and Valakut for... a combo kill?! The deck's other 4-of creature is Dryad of the Ilysian Grove, giving it a dedicated combo plan ready to fire at any moment should the window present itself.

The creatures, too, form a toolbox, with Eladamri's Call fishing up goodies like the spell-hosing Arasta of the Endless Web and Ponza's favorite new stabilizer, Elder Gargaroth. Primeval Titan supports the Valakut plan, while Eternal Witness buys back lost pieces. And Aether Vial cheats everything into play!

After its Challenge placing, Reclaimer Toolbox went on to 5-0, boding well for the deck's longevity; it certainly seems to come with a steep learning curve, featuring packages upon packages for the uninitiated to wrap their skulls around. It also looks like there's something in here for everyone, so I wonder if enough players will give it a whirl that it catches on.

I Can't Get in the Club

We haven't seen Bant at these levels since the lockdown began, and I'm sure UGW mages worldwide are rejoicing. Hopefully other shards and wedges get some love in the coming months and their respective fanbases can also celebrate. For now, though, I guess we can enjoy this Titan's party!

Budget-Focused: Aggro Picks

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back for some more Pioneer speculation this week! The last article was rather aggro heavy, and this one is going in a similar direction. We have three creatures and two non-creature spells to keep an eye on going forward. Be sure to let me know your thoughts in the comment section below!

Getting things done with token and creatures

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emmara, Soul of the Accord

To start with, we have a complementary piece to any Selesnya styled brew. Emmara, Soul of the Accord is a bargain at its current price, with non-foil copies coming in at $0.50(TCG Player), $1.08 for the foils, and $1.33 for the promo. There is a Gameday promo, but I could not acquire a price for it. Keep that in mind if you have any on hand to just hold onto them!

With white overall being used rather heavily in the format, this has a spot if Selesnya starts to garner attention. For starters, it is an elf, belonging to a sneaky tribe that always seems to find a build somewhere. Some may argue that Golgari would be a stronger color splash with cards like Shaman of the Pack, but in time, Selesnya tokens/elves might become a thing. Being able to tap this using other cards makes this quite intriguing. A little jank synergy combo using white would be using Pressure Point on it during your opponent’s end step. This not only gives us a token, but card advantage. Overall, this should be one to grow in value over time and could easily see a $2.00 - $3.00 non-foil price tag.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hanweir Militia Captain

Next on our list is a white weenie that should be considered for white weenie decks. Hanweir Militia Captain should be in contention for a mainboard slot given the upside at any point in the game. The current price is $0.84 for non-foils(TCG Player), $1.68 for the foils, and $1.90 for the prerelease copies.

The biggest upside here is mid to late game using this with white weenies. Once it transforms, it not only gets buffed due to creatures but produces creatures as well! We can use this in any token or creature heavy deck. However, referencing the current meta weenies would be where this would fit optimally. As a solid two-drop, this could easily rise to the $3.00 range regarding the non-foil copies.

Turning up the heat with creature ramp

There was an error retrieving a chart for Garruk's Harbinger

Garruk's Harbinger is the next card we are going to discuss. The copy to target with this one will be the showcase foil copy. In previous articles, the subject of showcase cards affecting prices has been brought up. This one however is at a steal for the price. At just $0.90 avg(TCG player) for the foil this is a bargain.

This is a card that would benefit any deck that utilizes green. Ramping into creatures is what we want to use this thing for. The other upside is that it has hexproof from black. Seeing as Mono Black Aggro is a thing, this is something to slam onto the board without having to worry about pesky black removal spells. Playing devil’s advocate, there are two major downsides to this card: you must deal damage to trigger the ability, and its toughness is at the three-level. However, those cons do not outweigh the pros for me.

Having a power of four is fantastic for a three-drop creature. Synergy is something everyone needs to look at with this for another pro. In a past article, we discussed how Gruul can utilize a new red spell in Unleash Fury. In an optimal situation, using both Unleash Fury and Temur Battle Rage together would be an insane turn-four play. Not to mention if our opponent was not dealt lethal from that, we would then potentially get a creature put into our hand. Overall, if this card gets utilized as it should in green, the foil could easily hover around the $4.00 range long term.

Getting huge gains in the card draw department

There was an error retrieving a chart for Village Rites

Village Rites is our next card that needs to garner attention. The current price is at $0.25 average for the non-foils and $1.99 for the foil copies (TCG Player). Both versions have to room to grow, as this will most certainly be utilized outside of Pioneer format, mostly likely in Pauper. We've been eyeing Pioneer cards that have potential in this article, but we must not ignore where else this can be utilized. A Pauper sacrifice strategy will almost auto-include this in any black build, and we have seen how this format has a tendency to affect foil common prices.

Going into Pioneer, this will again be almost an auto-include to any black build going forward. Any one-drop that has this kind of card advantage is powerful! We must sac a creature as an additional cost, but that is not going to deter anyone from using this spell that is looking to put creatures in the graveyard or produces incidental tokens. At only one black mana and instant speed, it has the potential for greatness. Seeing as this is the sole printing, this can surely creep up to the $1.00 range for non-foils and maybe upwards of $5.00 for the foil copies.

Wrapup

Wrapping things up, I'll say that we need to keep an eye on a slew of Core Set 2021 cards in general, but Pioneer is the format that benefits the most at this point. The cards in this set seem to be raising the bar on how powerful cards will be with a lower mana cost. The power creep that has been going on with cards in newer sets is undeniable.

It seems like the Standard card design is gearing towards speed instead of a solid split of strategy and speed. One could argue that it has been this way for a while, but I personally feel that the past couple years of Magic have highlighted this. I hope that you all enjoyed this article and be sure to come back this way for the next one!

Spell Spotlight: Monastery Swiftspear

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

With all the talk of generalities, such as metagame numbers and new decks, it's easy to overlook the specifics. So let's talk about Monastery Swiftspear. Indeed one of the most pushed combat creatures ever, Swiftspear reigns supreme among Stage 1 beaters and has come to define the majority of Modern aggro decks. If you want to get 'em dead fast in the red zone, there are currently few reasons to forego the Monk.

In Spell Spotlight, we'll go deep on a specific card in the Modern pool. How much play does it see?  Who plays it? Why do they play it? What are the alternatives? Read on to find out!

Card Breakdown

Here's a blurb I've written defining Stage 1 creatures:

Stage 1 creatures always come down on turn one. Their role is to put opponents on the back foot, either slowing down their development as they deal with the threat or contributing to a blossoming board advantage that will end the game quickly. They tend to care little about removal because they all trade at mana parity or better with available options. Lightning BoltFatal PushGut Shot, and Collective Brutality are commonly run to answer Stage 1 creatures; the first two kill every Stage 1 creature, while the last two narrow their sights to provide other benefits.

Indeed one of the most pushed combat creatures ever, Monastery Swiftspear reigns supreme among Stage 1 beaters and has come to define the majority of Modern aggro decks. If you want to get 'em dead fast in the red zone, there are currently few reasons to forego the Monk.

At one mana, Swiftspear is as cheap as players can expect to pay for a combat creature. It also has 2 toughness, letting it evade common removal options like Lava Dart and Wrenn and Six. That extra point also makes a world of difference when prowess is being employed to out-grow damage-based disruption. Thanks to the scalability of prowess, Swiftspear has applications in both aggro and aggro-combo strategies, the latter of which would have little use for static-power beaters like Goblin Guide.

The real clincher, though, is haste. The best of Magic's evergreen mechanics, haste is Time Walk on a creature, and compensates for Swift's low starting power. Even without any prowess boosts, Swiftspear has dealt 2 damage by the end of its second turn on the battlefield--the same amount as something like Savannah Lions. (Of course, it often deals much more.)

Haste also gives additional insurance against removal: opponents can shoot down Swiftspear on their own turn, but they've already taken a point of damage. In this instance, Swiftspear essentially went up on the exchange, as it was able to cash in value despite trading at mana parity. Finally, haste greatly mitigates a traditional failing of Stage 1 combat creatures: their decreased relevance in the late-game. Slamming Liliana of the Veil into an aggro opponent's one-creature board is a great move from midrange players; now they've got a planeswalker ticking back up into another removal spell. But Swiftspear flips the script, as it can just come down and revenge-kill the walker immediately.

Wassup Homes

As mentioned, Swiftspear can be found in just about every aggro deck (click on for decklists):

Here's UR Prowess, the latest shell to prominently feature the creature.

UR Prowess, TUBBYBATMAN (3-2, Modern Preliminary #12176966)

Creatures

4 Stormwing Entity
2 Sprite Dragon
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Soul-Scar Mage

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

4 Gut Shot
4 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Peek

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Fiery Islet
2 Mountain
4 Spirebluff Canal
4 Steam Vents

Sideboard

3 Abrade
2 Dragon's Claw
4 Spell Pierce
3 Surgical Extraction
3 Vapor Snag

Omitting Swift are the "bigger" builds of each deck, which trend more reactive along the archetype spectrum. While Prowess and Burn don't really have midrange-slanted versions, Rakdos Unearth is happy to rely on Seasoned Pyromancer and Rotting Regisaur to dominate the mid-game, and Death's Shadow is best known for its two midrange shells, Grixis and Delirium. While all of those aggro-control decks win primarily through combat, none of them are pure aggro decks, which is why they have little use for the 1/2 haste; they are attack-and-disrupt decks. It seems that the less interactive an aggro deck becomes, the likelier it is to run 4 Monastery Swiftspear.

Drawing Cat-Parisons

If I were to ask a given group of Modern players which cards should be banned from the format, I'd be extremely surprised to hear Swiftspear among them. But I think there's a compelling parallel to be drawn between Swiftspear now and Wild Nacatl back when the 3/3 was banned. Here's what Wizards had to say on the Cat:

We looked at our Modern tournaments and previous Extended tournaments to find when the attacking decks were fairly diverse, and when they were dominated by Zoo.

[…]

The problem is that other decks try to use synergy to get rewards, but those rewards aren’t any better than the Wild Nacatl. For example, the Doran decks use Treefolk Harbinger to find Doran. When it all works, the Harbinger is effectively a 3/3 for Green Mana. With shock lands, Wild Nacatl is a 3/3, and doesn’t let you down when your opponent kills your Doran. With some effort, Student of Warfare becomes a 3/3 first strike creature, but that isn’t a sufficient reward for the effort compared with Wild Nacatl. This creature is so efficient it is keeping too many other creature decks from being competitive. So, in the interest of diversity, the DCI is banning Wild Nacatl.

Natch, Treefolk Harbinger wasn't much of a staple at the time this announcement was made. And similarly, I can't think of many lesser one-drops trying and failing to break into Modern, as since they're failing, they aren't necessarily on my radar. The reason in 2011? People just played Nacatl instead. And now? They play Swiftspear.

Splashing Swift

While I think Swiftspear is just as pervasive in attacking decks as Nacatl used to be, the comparison isn't perfect. One might argue that Nacatl could be easily enabled by splashing colors with fetchlands, just as Swiftspear can be easily enabled with free cantrips like Manamorphose and Mishra's Bauble. But I think these cantrips pose much less of a barrier, allowing more decks to run Swiftspear than they could Nacatl.

That's playing out in the numbers, too; most Nacatl decks were simply Zoo decks, with very little difference in composition. By contrast, Swiftspear is splashable enough to find its way to multiple aggro strategies, often with diverse means of achieving their shared goal of reducing opponents to 0 life.

See the list of decks above: Burn seeks to assemble a critical mass of damage-dealing spells; Prowess soups up its creatures with cantrips and flashback cards before giving them trample with Crash Through; Rakdos Unearth employs graveyard synergies and a disruptive plan with Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger; Death's Shadow Zoo abuses its own life total and diversifies its card types to make a big attack using Temur Battle Rage. Four distinct archetypes that wouldn't leave home without the best one-mana beater in Modern. A world of difference from the samey universe of Nacatl into Pridemage into Knight of the Reliquary!

External Variables

Then there's the issue of Punishing Fire. I've long held that Wild Nacatl was an unneeded Modern ban, caught in the crossfires of a larger issue: the Punishing Fire-Grove of the Burnwillows combination. These cards together, coupled with the slower speed of the format a decade back, made it difficult for any aggro deck relying on x/1s or x/2s to break into the tournament scene. Nacatl was so important for aggro decks not only because it was very efficient, the reason given for its banning, but because it was the only Stage 1 creature immune to Punishing Fire. It's my belief that only banning Fire would have greatly decreased Nacatl's share among aggro decks by virtue of the move letting other x/1s and x/2s into the fold.

So what's Modern's current "Punishing Fire?" By which I mean, are there any external factors contributing to Swiftspear's status as top pick for aggro decks? Honestly, I'd say no. Swiftspear sees the play that it does not because it fulfills some special role in the Modern ecosystem, but because it really is the most efficient attacker at its price point, bar none.

Another Glass of Red

To summarize this celebration of Monastery Swiftspear:

  • Swiftspear is Modern's best Stage 1 attacker
  • Its popularity is based not on external variables, but its own efficiency
  • The creature is good enough in its role to be run in every pure aggro deck
  • Since it's so easy to splash, Swiftspear ends up in many different aggro decks, lending to diversity

Fill 'er up; it's swingin' time!

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

View More By Jordan Boisvert

Posted in Modern, TechTagged , , 2 Comments on Spell Spotlight: Monastery Swiftspear

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Choosing The Right Bullet: A Beginner’s Guide

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's time, once again, for a return to The Beginner's Guide to Modern. This my long-running but periodic series where I cover the fundamentals of Modern for those new to the format. Though, as happens with a series that's four years old at this point, I've already covered all the fundamentals and obvious misconceptions long ago. Which is why I don't write these too often anymore. However, when I do see players making what I consider significant mistakes, or simply misunderstanding decks, you can be sure that I'll have an article ready.

This one is particularly timely given what I said about Merfolk last week. I praised MissTrigger's deck for correctly understanding what mattered against Prowess and playing the right cards both maindeck and sideboard to win a Challenge. I've been stewing on this topic for a while, but what MissTrigger did is quite rare. It is far more common for players to attack decks incorrectly and/or sideboard the wrong hate cards. Why this happens depends case by case, but generally it comes down to failing to understand what's important, either to the targeted deck or to the overall matchup.

The former problem is almost always a case of mistaken causality. Humans are generally very bad at distinguishing correlation from causation because we're predisposed to fixating on the obvious thing as a survival mechanism. Some impressive thing happens in a match, and the loser's mind naturally assumes that thing determined the outcome of the match. But you should only ever focus on what matters. The failing is not knowing what matters, and when. I can't completely solve this problem, but I can outline common mistakes and provide advice to get around them.

The Sideboard Problem

While either mistake can happen at any time during a match, I find the more avoidable ones occur during sideboarding. It's not that game 1 is immune from players misunderstanding matchups. Rather, game 1, everyone has limited information and is thus prone to mistakes in identifying what's important. The only solution is extensive format knowledge, but even then you'll get surprised by rogue decks, weird card choices, and familiar decks played unexpected ways. It happens even to the best.

After game 1, players should have enough information to make informed decisions. However, there is a tendency for misidentification problems to manifest more in sideboarding than game 1. This usually comes down to fixating on certain "good" cards or interactions in a matchup while missing the actual context of that matchup. Consequently, I frequently see players misboard or worse, play the wrong type of hate in the first place. And it always costs them. The classic mistake is just playing the wrong card. I've shared this exchange before:

Me: Just in case what?

Them: If I hit Storm I need graveyard removal, so I have Surgical Extraction.

Me: I just saw you Extract Storm three times and you still lost handily.

Them: Yeah, Storm is a terrible matchup.

Me: Functionally unwinnable or unfavorable?

Them: Haven't won a match in weeks.

Me: Why are you using sideboard slots to try if it's unwinnable in the best case scenario?

Them: I need something against Storm.

This was a conversation I had with a Grixis Control player right before he left for an SCG tournament (2018 Regionals, I think). His deck was soul crushing against anything fair, but just couldn't beat combo. His problem was that, for all his answers, he could not win the game quickly. If memory serves, he won via Snapcaster Mage, Jace the Mind Sculptor, and Creeping Tar Pit. Nothing else. Storm was unbeatable for him not because he couldn't stop the combo, but because he couldn't win before Storm could rebuild from all his disruption. His solution was to play more answers for a specific aspect of Storm's attack, completely missing his actual problem in the matchup. A pair of Gurmag Anglers would have been better for the job.

I've recommended shifts like this for control players before. I always have Geist of Saint Traft and Vendilion Clique when I play control for this very reason. Time matters in combo matchups, not card advantage. I recall winning on my Grixis player giving up Extraction, but I couldn't convince him to replace them with Anglers or indeed any other creatures for fear of diluting his control game. He didn't do well at his tournament after facing more combo than expected. You have to target the right interactions to win.

I realize that this sounds familiar to regular Beginner's Guide readers. However, what I'm specifically looking at is when you are targeting the right interaction, but still miss the mark. If you've fallen for correlation over causation or failed to understand a matchup, you may be playing relevant hate cards in the right matchup and still losing. This isn't because they're actually bad, but because you've missed something.

Target Misidentified

I'll explain this using something I did. Going to an early Modern PTQ in 2013-2014, I was locked into playing UW Sun Titan control. I knew that Twin was a hard matchup and needed to sideboard hate to win. I could deal with the overall deck on its own merits, but doing so left me vulnerable to being combo'd out, so I wanted something to stop that which didn't require a mana investment. My options were Suppression Field or Torpor Orb.  Orb affected my value-creature plan, but completely shut down Twin. Meanwhile, the only cards that Field hit in my deck were Flooded Strand and Celestial Colonnade while hitting Twin's combo, fetchlands, and planeswalkers. It seemed like a much better plan to go with Field.

I was wrong. A more experienced player warned me before the tournament that I was, and should play Orb instead. I'd already lent out my Orbs, so I forged ahead and suffered. See, I'd fallen into the causality trap where I correlated the combo with losing. I was fixated on losing after fighting Twin to a stalemate and then getting combo'd out of nowhere. I was looking only to attack that angle. It didn't work because that's not the real reason I was losing. Twin was a tempo creature deck. It was heavily if not entirely dependent on its creatures actually gaining value when they hit. It's not like a 1/4, 2/1, or 2/1 flier is very impressive on its own. Especially against my 3/2's, 3/4 flier, or 6/6.

I successfully hated out the combo, but not the deck. Twin was able to just keep doing its thing, which was get under my slower control deck and then tempo me out. I did win a single game where a turn 2 Field locked out my opponent (only one non-fetchland), but I would have won many more if I'd played Orb and broken Twin's value engine. I had a much better medium-beatdown game than Twin. Because I missed what was really going on in the matchup, I played a hate card that let Twin escape. This is the lesson of this article: If you're going to play a hate card, make sure it actually hates out the target. Don't just kinda hate or be annoying. HATE THEM TO DEATH!

The Great Tron Problem

Over the years, this has been the great paradox of Modern Tron. Players have always complained about Tron, and have constantly proposed ways to fight against it. It never worked, until very recently. And it comes down to the incorrect target problem.

Tron wins by getting seven mana on turn three, then dropping big colorless bombs. Always has. This has led many to conclude that the key to beating the deck was to target the lands. The problem is that land destruction costs three or more. Which means that Tron can only be kept from hitting its mana when that Fulminator Mage comes down on curve on the play. Otherwise, there will be a Karn to deal with in addition to the lands. Players searched for years for a solution, but ultimately just always had to deal with the fact that Tron would hit its lands and drop bombs.

When Assassin's Trophy and Damping Sphere were printed, it was hailed as the end of Tron. Finally, there were effective answers that would definitely preempt Tron being assembled. However, that was far from the case. Tron kept powering on. It had to adapt by being mono-green and playing more basics, but it still just kept being Tron. The fact that this happened made many very unhappy.

Mooned Out

However, it shouldn't have been surprising given a well-known piece of advice: Blood Moon isn't good against Tron. It will just win through the Moon. Which is a very odd thought, seeing that Moon is the best land hate card available. It's devastating against Primeval Titan decks and unprepared three color decks. How could it be poor against Tron?

The answer was that Tron lands aren't the problem with Tron. Yes, they're the whole namesake of the deck, but the problem isn't that Tron ramps. The problem is that Tron drops big colorless monsters early. I realize that the former problem enables the other, but dealing with the former won't solve the latter. Too many players thought Moon was a solution to Tron, not realizing that Tron doesn't actually need colorless mana. Just generic mana, meaning red is just as good. Yes, Moon means that Tron can't hit those monsters early anymore, but there's nothing stopping Tron from hitting them later. And Karn Liberated is still a huge threat on turn seven. The problem isn't the Tron lands, the problem is Tron's threats.

Players have finally started to catch on, and are adopting better strategies against Tron. Traditionally, blue control struggled against Tron, just like Jund. However, these days, control is playing more counters to actually answer Tron's answers on-curve. More importantly, Field of Ruin gives them a way to slow Tron down while fixing their own mana. This strategy has proven at least as effective as more dedicated strategies, and doesn't yield the heartbreak of land destruction not working. Except when Veil of Summer is involved.

Avoid the Monsters

On that note, stop boarding Damping Sphere against Eldrazi Tron! This is the most egregious example of players not understanding a matchup I know. E-Tron rarely hits Tron early. Frequently, it never has any acceleration at all. Playing Sphere protects against corner-case blowout games and nothing else. The reason that E-Tron works is that Chalice is a powerful card and the Eldrazi are big creatures. Far more than against Tron, attacking the lands is missing the point of the deck. Blood Moon is more effective here because E-Tron does need colorless mana, but that still won't help against a Waste. Only bring in hate cards that matter.

How Prowess Dodges Taxes

The second problem is missing the matchup context. Last week I mentioned that Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is poor against Prowess. This is not because her effect is bad against the deck; it can be utterly crippling when Prowess is mana-light. However, she's not effective because Lava Dart perfectly answers her. And can be flashed back later. Siding in Thalia is missing the important context of that matchup.

Worse is when players bring in Damping Sphere. The first spell isn't taxed, meaning that Prowess still gets to play its game. Not as much of it, and Sphere is still effective at preventing the explosive turns. As I learned against Izzet Phoenix, a smart player will be judicious with their spells so as to maximize their value and play around and through the Sphere. Unless you can really take advantage of it, the time that Sphere will buy is meaningless.

That same sideboard slot could go to Dragon's Claw and be more effective. Prowess plays a lot of red cards that don't directly deal damage. Getting an extra cushion of life buys more time than the ineffective taxing. It's not perfect, and Prowess absolutely will win through a Claw, but not quite as easily as a Sphere. Plus, Claw will never make it hard for its controller to cast multiple spells. While not the most effective Prowess hate (that would be Trinisphere), Claw's going after a more intrinsic part of the deck and is more effective than Sphere or any other taxing effect.

Storm's Dilemma

This brings up the question of taxing against any combo deck. And it is a complicated one. Taxing does generally work against these decks, but you can't rely on it. Storm plays cost reducer creatures, each of which undoes a Thalia or Thorn of Amethyst. This doesn't mean that Storm is suddenly free, since Modern Storm needs the cost reduction. However, it does mean that relying on taxing against Storm is risky. It's good as part of a wider attack (as Humans proved), but this isn't Legacy. If you want to really hate Storm, Deafening Silence or Trinisphere over Thorn.

Don't Overthink it

All that being said, don't overthink sideboard hate. It's possible to get too cute and level yourself. Basically, if a lengthy explanation/justification is necessary to explain why a card is effective, then it's better to opt for a simpler solution.

For a long time, I ran Plague Engineer in Humans. It made sense as a very powerful effect, and I'd been high on the card when it was spoiled. The problem was that Engineer is awkward to cast. The mana base is geared to only cast Humans, and I either had to save an Unclaimed Territory or draw Ancient Ziggurat/Aether Vial to actually play the thing. I've recently switched to Izzet Staticaster, and while it's not as powerful, it has been more effective because I cast it more often and easily. Theoretical power is meaningless if it's too hard to cast.

Similarly, the classics are classics for a reason. Sometimes it's best to just stick to normal cards rather than a powerful bullet or hate piece. Disenchant is the quintessential sideboard card. There are numerous more powerful, though narrow, options for the same effect. However, sometimes Disenchant is the best option. I've learned this the hard way in Legacy. Leonin Relic-Warden is a very strong card, especially when it answers Chalice of the Void, then gets flickered to take something else. However, it's linearly playing into Death and Taxes' ETB creature plan. This means that I've lost to Torpor Orb playing the Leonin when a simple Disenchant would win the game. Context is everything.

The Key

Sideboard space is a precious resource. Maximizing individual card impact is critical. However, so is ensuring that every card actually does the job it needs to do. Don't play a card because it seems good on paper. It must actually do the thing you're expecting to be worthwhile.

My Relationship with the Reserved List

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I have a confession to make. This isn’t easy to say because I know it’s going to trigger numerous readers. Some may even go as far as to unfollow me on Twitter for sharing this unpopular opinion.

My name is Sig, and I like the Reserved List.

Clearly I’m in the significant minority on this matter; at least, I am in the minority amongst the MTG community most vocal on Twitter. But even Saffron Olive’s recent Twitter poll, which earned over 13,000 votes (surely this is statistically significant), indicates that my opinion is matched only by about 10% of the player base.

See that check next to “No”. Yup, that’s what I voted for.

I’m not going to sit here and delude myself, thinking a single article on the Reserved List is going to convert readers. I recognize everyone is passionate about this topic and a simple write-up isn’t going to change minds. But I feel I owe it to the community to explain my position. My goal with this article isn’t to convince you to support the Reserved List. The goal is only to convince you that one can support the Reserved List without malicious intent and with a genuine interest in Magic’s long-term health.

If I can’t accomplish that, then my minimum threshold for success is extremely low: I wish for readers not to think less of me for this opinion.

Sig, How Did This Happen?

I wasn’t always supportive of the Reserved List. In fact, the tweet I have pinned on my Twitter profile is a screenshot of a Facebook post I wrote back on March 20th, 2010:

What happened in March 2010 that catalyzed this post? Just two days prior, on March 18th, Wizards of the Coast posted a significant update to the Reserved List. The post was short and unassuming; in fact, it’s so short, I can paste the entire announcement from their website right here.

This brief 132-word post sealed the only available loophole in the Reserved List. Prior to this date, Wizards of the Coast had used premium printings of Reserved List cards in order to circumvent the list and distribute reprints. The “community” caused a stir, and WOTC felt compelled to close the loophole—it has remained closed ever since.

I’m not sure who this “community” was that WOTC referred to. Certainly this isn’t the same community that participated in Saffron’s Twitter poll. That community would have clearly supported premium foil reprints of Reserved List cards. Some influential group of people must have had WOTC’s ear in order to motivate this update. At the time, that influential pro-Reserved List group didn’t include me, hence my frustrated Facebook post.

In 2020, the fact that I predicted $100 Dual Lands doesn’t seem all that impressive. But it was a bold prediction back then, especially if you consider non-blue, heavily played Dual Lands. In fact, when WOTC posted this announcement, I first made a modest purchase on Card Shark before posting my Dual Land prediction:

I picked up heavily played Badlands, Scrubland, and Taiga and the three cards didn’t even cost me $100 (check out that sweet Ancient Tomb price, too). When I predicted Dual Lands would hit $100, I wasn’t referring to near mint Underground Seas. I was talking about these heavily played, non-blue duals.

Ten Years Later: Why I’ve Warmed Up to the Reserved List

Ten years ago, I was worried about the Reserved List. Since then, I have evolved my thinking for a variety of reasons. Here comes to controversial part of the article—I’m going to explain why I changed my stance from worrying about the Reserved List to being completely supportive of its existence.

I’m going to start with a picture from @MTGHistory’s Twitter account, of the first World Championship Finals that took place 26 years ago.

What’s the first thing that catches your eye in this picture? For me, it’s not the players, the board state of the game in action, or the awkward clothing styles from the early 1990’s. Instead, it’s that binder casually placed on the end of the table. No one even appears to be looking at it.

If that binder was placed on the end of a table in 2020, any nearby gameplay would instantly cease as players would surely gawk over the cards within. The reason is obvious: in 2020, that one binder page would be worth over $100,000. Nowadays a binder filled with Masterpieces and popular Modern staples are a dime a dozen. A binder filled with black-bordered Power…much much rarer.

The Reserved List itself isn’t the sole reason that binder page is so impressive. But the concept of unobtainable cards—cards that are out of reach and something to aspire to owning—is supported by the Reserved List.

This concept of “unobtainium” in a collectible market is often what drives interest in the hobby. This isn’t just a Magic thing; it exists in most relevant collectible market. In fact, the baseball card market collapsed in the 90’s because the card manufacturers printed cards so much that there was no longer an allure to collecting. According to an article on slate.com, “One trade magazine estimated the tally at 81 billion trading cards per year in the late ‘80’s and early ‘90’s.”

The article goes on to state, “In 1989, the Upper Deck Co. would transform the industry with flashy, high-priced cards aimed at investment-minded collectors. As the sales of new sports cards swelled to more than $1 billion a year, children began to flee the hobby, turned off by the pricey packs and confounding number of sets.” Pricey packs and confounding number of sets, you say? Hmmmm I must say that sounds familiar…

Luckily for Magic, there’s a game played with these cards (vs. baseball cards) so players will still purchase the new product. But the comparison is intriguing.

How about with coin collecting? Part of the allure to collecting a complete set of coins, such as Lincoln Pennies, is the journey and challenge of obtaining the “key dates” of the series. The term “key date” refers to the dates in the series that are harder to obtain than the others. They are rare, making it difficult to complete a series. The excitement of obtaining the “key date” and completing a series would not exist if there was no “unobtanium” in the numismatic world.

The parallel is admittedly a stretch, but imagine if the U.S. mint went out of their way to create a new series of “key dates” as a way to drive sales. Let’s say they mint 1,000,000 more 1909S-VDB Lincoln Cents. Collectors would surely buy it, but the value would surely drop. Suddenly, a difficult-to-find piece of the series would be obtainable. Confidence in other “key date” coins would be shaken and the coin collecting hobby as a whole would fade in popularity.

A Brief Look at Psychology

Obtaining the unobtainable is a lifelong quest—something worth pursuing and then celebrating once accomplished. The Reserved List facilitates this experience by creating a subset of cards that will invariably be difficult to obtain, continuously climbing in price. Remove the Reserved List and some of that allure is lost.

Not all of it, mind you. I completely get that a Beta Shivan Dragon maintains a significant premium versus its Revised counterpart despite not being on the Reserved List. To this, I would argue that collectible, nostalgic cards like Beta Shivan Dragon would be worth less because its peers—Power, Duals, etc.—would be worth less.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shivan Dragon

Part of why old, non-Reserved List cards are so expensive is because collectors can trade their expensive Reserved List cards for them. The rising tide lifted all ships, as it were.

Looking to psychology, there’s extensive evidence that suggests people who purchase more expensive things tend to like those more expensive things more. The BBC has an article that states, “In one study by the California Institute of Technology and Stanford University scholars, people not only rate the same wine more highly when they’re told it is more expensive, functional magnetic resonance imaging or functional MRI scans taken of their brains while they were drinking the wine suggest participants enjoyed the experience of drinking it more.”

Translating to Magic, I believe players enjoy the game and their card collections more when they have more expensive cards. Having something that’s more expensive and difficult for others to obtain would be even better! This is evidenced by the fact that Commander players often like to “pimp out” their deck and use the flashiest printings of each cards, possible. But while a Masterpiece Sol Ring is cool, nothing compares to having a Reserved List foil Gaea's Cradle in one’s Commander deck.

“But Sig, Gaea's Cradle would still be expensive even if it was off the Reserved List and reprinted because it is so popular.”

This is true, to an extent. And maybe a full-frame, alternate art, foil Gaea's Cradle would carry some premium. But if there are five choices for “best” Gaea's Cradle, would demand for them be diluted somewhat? Each player would have a different opinion of which copy is the best, distributing demand across all of them, resulting in a lower price across the board.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

A lower price may be desirable to many players, I completely get that. My point here is that players will appreciate/enjoy their cards less if they cost less (the converse to the evidence from the California study cited above). Players think they want cheaper cards—it’s true that having a cheap Gaea's Cradle is better than having no Gaea's Cradle. It’s tough to visualize, but I’d argue that a cheaper Gaea's Cradle would be less appreciated and less enjoyed than an expensive one.

Magic needs to have expensive cards to drive this elevated level of enjoyment.

Wrapping It Up

This is becoming a lengthy article, and I feel I’ve only scratched the surface of my Reserved List perspective. My feelings on this list go much deeper than “More expensive, unobtainable cards are good for the hobby.” But to cover the depth of my appreciation for the Reserved List would likely require two more articles of equal length.

For now, I’ll leave with a brief summary of what I’ve written above. Magic is a game, but it’s also a Collectible Card Game. This is what sets it apart from games like Apples to Apples or Exploding Kittens. Those are card games, but they aren’t collectible card games. Part of what makes Magic so special is that it is collectible (i.e. an item worth collecting/of interest to a collector). Magic has been around for 27 years as a result...I don't think Exploding Kittens will be nearly as profitable as Magic after it has been around for 27 years.

Removing the Reserved List would not convert Magic into Exploding Kittens, obviously. But reprinting older cards would negatively impact some components of the market. Psychology studies suggest that paying more for something makes us appreciate it more. Reducing prices of cards across the board may sound attractive, but it would negatively impact our appreciation for the hobby.

Lastly, every collectible market has an “unobtainium” worth aspiring to. Whether it be coins, video games, stamps, or comic books. One key difference with Magic is that some of its demand is driven by desire for play and not just collectability. That complicates the equation significantly—reprinting cards shifts the supply/demand equation between collectors and players in a way that’s difficult to predict.

I know removing the Reserved List wouldn't mean removing an "unobtainium" component to the hobby. I get that. Players will still demand the most powerful cards and premium, rarer printings of those cards would carry additional value. But I suspect there will be a general "lessening" of value across the board. I can't predict what that would look like, but I'd rather not risk it.

I’d prefer things stay as they are rather than open Pandora’s Box and remove the Reserved List. Even if it means I can't afford all the cards I desire. It motivates me to keep striving for the unobtainable, keeping me engaged with the hobby.

Pandora’s Box

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

 

In June 2013, WoTC released the first of the paper "Masters" sets, simply called Modern Masters. It was the first all reprint set since Chronicles in 1995, which as many of you know was the catalyst for the Reserved List. For those who don't know the history of Chronicles, prior to the printing of the set, there were a lot of $10+ dollar rares from Legends and Arabian Nights and the ones included in Chronicles tanked in value due to the massive print run. You can find some fantastic information regarding print runs here.

The gist of it is that there were 20,500 of each Arabian Nights rare, 19,500 of each Legends rare, but 516,500 of each Chronicles rare which added 2580% to the supply of the rares included in the set. Obviously, there wasn't nearly that much demand at the time, so cards that were $10+ dropped to under $1 and a lot of people got upset.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas
There was an error retrieving a chart for Nebuchadnezzar

Flash forward to 2013, and it appeared that WotC had learned their lesson with the printing of Modern Masters; with a more conservative print run, WoTC ensured that instead of tanking all the chase card prices in the set, we only saw some dips and the eventual recovery. It was a set that included numerous cards that had skyrocketed in value with the creation of the Modern format and was a way for WoTC to add additional copies of powerful cards into the supply without having to run them through the Standard format. What's more, it garnered interest in the Modern format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

At the time, Standard was WoTC's bread and butter: it generated almost all of their revenue, while singles sales of older cards were often a major source of income for many local game stores. While some players feared what the advent of new "all reprint" sets would kill the singles market, this fear ended up ebbing as the cards rebounded. I myself actually bought a lot of singles shortly after the release of the set, and enjoyed speculating on numerous cards from it, given that my LGS had just enough boxes to sell me one and still run a wildly successful draft.

The next of the Masters sets didn't come about until two years later with Modern Masters 2015. This time the print run seemed to be noticeably bigger, as stores had boxes in stock for weeks as opposed to days. Again, I speculated on numerous Modern staples that had plummeted in value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

As was the case before, many of the staples from this set recovered from their price drops, and WoTC had other successful Masters set under their belts. Those who cried out that the sky was falling were proven wrong.

 

Here is where we start to see the gradual slide downward. While previously WoTC had kept these sets to every other year, which gave time for the singles in the sets to financially recover. They began now to start releasing more and more of them.

  • 2013- Modern Masters
  • 2014- No Masters set
  • 2015- Modern Masters 2015
  • 2016- Eternal Masters
  • 2017- Modern Masters 2017 + Iconic Masters
  • 2018- Masters 25 + Ultimate Masters

It seemed WoTC had fallen in love with these Masters sets. After all, they don't have to devote a lot of development resources to a set in which all cards and mechanics are already defined. They also know they can sell them at a significant premium over their standard set boosters, now called draft boosters, because the cards in the set held more value on the secondary market and thus players could justify the higher price because they got more valuable cards.

They also released a majority of these sets in late spring to early summer, when sales for Magic packs tend to dip; many student players were out of school and either working or doing other summer activities. I have no doubt that the higher-ups at WoTC loved having a nice financial shot in the arm for their quarterly earnings reports.

Not surprisingly, many of the singles in the sets from 2017 onward were not recovering in value, players and stores were seeing the value of their collections reduced with each new spoiler season. That isn't to say one couldn't speculate on cards in these sets, but with each new printing, the successful targets became fewer and fewer.

It's also important to note that there is one customer base who had no qualms with these constant reprints: the casual and newer players looking to get into older formats. For this group, WoTC couldn't make enough reprint sets. Finally, even WoTC could tell that the playerbase was feeling fatigued by these sets. With the release of Ultimate Masters, WotC vowed to put the Masters release schedule on a brief hiatus.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

That hiatus ended May 21, 2020 with the announcement of Double Masters and given that Ultimate Masters released December 2018 it lasted about a year and a half. Though, I think there is a fair argument to call the Mystery Booster set a Masters set in disguise, which if you do means the hiatus only lasted 11 months.

I'll be the first to admit that when Ultimate Masters released, I got caught up in the hype along with so many others. There were just so many awesome cards in the set. Previously, we'd have a fair number of duds in the other Masters sets to keep the overall EV of the set to a reasonable level, but Ultimate Masters seemed to be chock full of fantastic Modern and Commander cards. I looked through my records and realized I had spent $1340 on singles and $1032 on four boxes.

I loved buying cards like Engineered Explosives, Noble Hierarch, and Celestial Colonnade for 25-50% of their old prices. I took the promise from WoTC to hold off on more Masters sets as a security blanket, to invest heavily so I could reap massive future rewards. Those profits never came.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Celestial Colonnade

I can't blame it all on WoTC. I did see significant gains on Commander specs from the set; Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre, Demonic Tutor, and Phyrexian Altar. Unfortunately, before any of my Modern specs could recover, WoTC announced the Pioneer format, which quickly overtook Modern as the new People's Format. I don't think many people could have foreseen a new format coming out in 2019. I have to look at those losses as more from a "black swan" event than poor speculation targets.

I don't want this to come off as any sort of "woe is me" monologue, but I would like to warn those entering the speculation waters that the more something seems like a "sure thing," the warier you should be. In fact, my Ultimate Masters losses have caused me to re-evaluate my entire speculation strategy.

I know many of my fellow QS Insiders feel like Double Masters is one such "sure thing." I want to make sure people take a step back before going deep on any Double Masters reprints and hopefully learn from my failures. I also think it's very important to point out that while we are seeing a lot of the Double Masters cards already start trending upward, the initial non-VIP boxes had print run issues that reduced a lot of allocation for stores. We should expect more boxes to hit the market when WoTC's printers catch back up. I'd expect it to be a rather substantial print run, meaning the gains we see right now will quickly drop once additional supply hits the marketplace.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Firestorm Phoenix

My new speculation strategy is to avoid all metagame driven formats: Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, etc. Now, I almost exclusively speculate on Commander. Even then, I have to limit myself on how deep I'm willing to go on any given target. I choose to restrict most specs at 12 copies or $100, whichever comes first. I'm more than willing to allow those who love the high risk/high reward style of speculation to fill in where I have left off.

I'm sure that my preference for reducing risk comes from growing older and having a growing family, but many of the players I hang out with seem to feel the same concerns with WotC's current strategy of pumping out more and more supplemental products each year. I hear the term "wallet fatigue" thrown around a fair amount, and while I can't speak for everyone, my friends and I are definitely feeling it with all these supplemental products.

 

A Positioning Gift: Metagamed Merfolk

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Decks come, and decks go. The metagame has no sacred cows. A deck must find its niche and then hold it to maintain relevance. Strength in a vacuum doesn't matter, nor does the dedication of the player base. Three years ago, Grixis Death's Shadow was an absolute monster of a deck, to the point that some called for its banning. Today, the metagame has moved on, and GDS is Tier 3 at best. One might be dismissive and say that it's all survival of the fittest, but that's not necessarily true. Just ask Mono-Green Tron, a deck that has fluctuated between Tier 1 and unplayable over the years. Relevance is relative, and so long as they inhabit a valid niche, a Modern deck is never truly gone.

Which is an elaborate way of introducing the fact that for the first time in years, I'm going to discuss Merfolk today. While I've always thought the deck was underrated, I had to admit that Spirits and Humans were doing Merfolk's thing a lot better, and set my baby aside. However, everything changes, and due to a quirk of the current metagame, Merfolk is better positioned than it has been in years. Whether this translates into a more permanent role in Modern remains to be seen, but the current version is a textbook example of correct metagaming and positioning. And much better than other so-called metagame solutions.

Merfolk's Return

Whenever I hear chatter about a deck's return, I'm always skeptical. Modern is very much an enthusiast format, and players like to play their deck. This is a good thing, as Modern also rewards mastery of your deck. However, I'm not so blind as to think that means that any deck is actually good. Because I used to fall for that very trap. I've played Merfolk in the face of some very broken decks out of a combination of stubbornness and genuine belief in its potential. And I was mostly let down. I thought I was out for good. And then I saw something that drew me back in.

UW Merfolk, MissTrigger (1st Place, MTGO Challenge 8/10)

Creatures

3 Benthic Biomancer
4 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Unsettled Mariner

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

3 Spreading Seas

Instants

3 Force of Negation
3 Dismember

Lands

4 Wanderwine Hub
3 Seachrome Coast
3 Mutavault
2 Cavern of Souls
8 Island

Sideboard

3 Chalice of the Void
2 Relic of Progenitus
3 Tidebinder Mage
1 Spreading Seas
2 Echoing Truth
2 Mana Leak
1 Force of Negation
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Merfolk hasn't been completely absent from Modern since I stopped playing it. However, it's never put up decent results or had much of a metagame impact. This is despite some aggressive printings in Ixalan. Yes, it does often appear in League data, but that means nothing; anything can go 5-0 in a League. The bottom line was always that the deck has a very strong linear attack, but without the disruption of Humans, Merfolk struggled to hang with the combo and control decks. What piques my interest now is that MissTrigger won a Challenge---the whole thing. That's a strong signal of quality, and worth looking into.

I've Got History; Also, Bias

I will admit that at least part of this is simply that I'm me. I've been playing Merfolk a long time. It very convincingly won me the PTQ that took me to my only Pro Tour. I had lots of solid results with the deck over the years. And I was always playing UW and extolling the virtues of the deck in the face of everyone else jamming mono-blue. To see my pet deck getting results is certainly going to draw my eye more than most.

That Said...

It also means that I understand what the deck is going for and why it worked. And the fact that MissTrigger won that Challenge is no accident. Merfolk, particularly that version of Merfolk, was expertly positioned for a field well represented by the Top 32. Whenever the format moves towards slow blue decks, I expect Merfolk to see more play thanks to islandwalk. However, MissTrigger's version was prepared for a field of not only UWx decks but Prowess, Eldrazi, and Ponza. The only question is how they got past all the Toolbox decks.

The metagame is dominated by (in order) Prowess, Eldrazi Tron, and GRx midrange decks. Stoneblade is up there, too. Given that Humans has always been strong against Eldrazi and taxing effects are strong against velocity decks, I thought I'd be shouting about the virtues of Humans in this meta. That isn't happening, and the problem is Prowess.

Simply put, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben isn't good in that matchup. The problem is not that taxing effects aren't good against Prowess. They are. The problem is that Thalia is too fragile. Prowess universally runs Lava Dart maindeck, and most have a few Gut Shots between maindeck and sideboard. A turn two Thalia is barely a speed bump, and without that delay, Humans struggles to keep up. In fact, most Humans die to a single Dart hit, and there's not much Humans can do about that.

Doing the Right Thing...

And this is the first place that Merfolk shines. Unlike Humans, the vast majority of Merfolk's creatures have 2 toughness. Thus, Dart's effectiveness is muted from the get go. Then, MissTrigger replaces Thalia with Unsettled Mariner. Mariner is generally much weaker than Thalia since it only taxes spells that target. However, that is almost everything in typical Prowess decks. Coupled with the above mentioned resistance to Dart, Mariner is far more effective and breaking up the big Prowess turns than Thalia.

...With the Right Tools

The next critical adaptation is relevant interaction. Humans has getting enormous and Reflector Mage as maindeck answers for creatures. Merfolk can also get big, though lords are more fragile than counters. There is the advantage that Prowess has islands and does a lot of damage to itself, but that's minor compared to Merfolk's other advantages. See, Mage is very good, but it costs three. And Noble Hierarch only lives past the first turn in games Humans is never going to lose against Prowess. Thus, Mage is too slow most of the time.

Merfolk has more interaction, but it's also all the right interaction for the matchup. Merfolk vs Prowess is very much about tempo, and the interactive Merfolk creatures offer far stronger tempo plays. Back when I played Merfolk, I was always skeptical of Harbinger of the Tides. It was a good card, but the old metagame was more about attrition or combo than racing, meaning Harbinger was mediocre. Prowess is another story. Tapping Stormwing Entity with Merfolk Trickster or bouncing it during combat with Harbinger is a huge swing. There's the tempo of getting a your creature down and bouncing theirs, but there's also card advantage, since Prowess pumps so many spells into its creatures. They're actual spells, not cantrips, so Prowess does run out of gas. Plus, the Merfolk also only cost two, so they'll see play early enough to make a difference.

Bring a Spare

Finally, there's the sideboard. Chalice of the Void is obviously huge game against a deck that's mostly one-mana spells. It's the main reason that Eldrazi Tron's been relevant so long. Add to this Merfolk not playing many one-mana spells, and it's a huge beating. And Chalice is also good elsewhere.

However, the real genius is running Tidebinder Mage. I also never ran Mage back in the day because Jund doesn't care if it can't block for a turn and Elves just hemorrhaged too much stuff for icing one creature to matter. But against Prowess, Mage becomes a Time Walk. Prowess must kill Mage the turn it's played, or they lose an entire turn killing the Mage, and not attacking. And doing anything on the opponent's turn is bad because it gives up prowess triggers. Trickster can fog a single attack, but Mage represents multiple combats lost and can attack itself. Merfolk thus has the right tools to really kick Prowess around.

Splash Damage

However, if the only criteria to being a good deck was a strong matchup against the top deck, then Soul Sisters would see more play. Modern is too broad and diverse to target the top deck and achieve success. Fortunately, Merfolk has a number of strong matchups, many of which are top decks right now. Merfolk has always been decent to very good against Eldrazi decks: you just swamp the board and swim past because Chalice is too slow and Merfolk plays Cavern of Souls. Blue decks, particularly ones without sweepers are similarly good. That Merfolk is good against Ponza was a real surprise to me.

Ponza is an accelerated beatdown deck. Its creatures are enormous, and it has plenty of removal between Bolt, Bonecrusher Giant, Glorybringer, and Chandra, Torch of Defiance. The mana from Utopia Sprawl and Arbor Elf let this ostensibly midrange deck play more like an aggro deck and just outmuscle Merfolk... in theory. But there's a reason we play the game, and it turns out that the matchup is a lot better than I thought.

See, without that acceleration, Ponza just starts clunking. And Merfolk uniquely attacks Ponza's mana. Dismember on Elf is obvious, but the real killer is Spreading Seas. Sprawl is an "enchant forest" card, and should Seas flood that forest, Sprawl falls off. Thus, Merfolk can attack both parts of Ponza's main advantage while largely ignoring Blood Moon. This makes Ponza play more like its older, and far worse, incarnations, which were good matchups back in the day. It's hardly a cake walk especially after board, but much better than expected.

That Pernicious Metagame Deck

Ultimately, that's the key to a good metagame deck. You have to hit the deck you're targeting without losing sight of the rest of the metagame. Not only that, a metagame deck needs to be reasonable on its own within the Modern ecosystem. Again, Modern is too diverse to really target a single deck, and if a deck's gameplan is only good against a single type of deck (or just one specific deck), it is doomed to fail.

I've warned against trying to metagame a lot. The problem is that players tend to tunnel vision on one aspect of the format and forget about the rest. On top of that, they often fixate on specific interactions that they think are good and miss the wider context. Or worse, they miss the actual reason that a deck or interaction is good, and miss their target. MissTrigger's deck is a case study in how to do it right: have a generally good gameplan; hit the right things about the deck(s) you're targeting; hit other good decks too; and most critically, don't play into the gameplan of the deck you're targeting. They wanted to live in that world for a reason; do you really think you can come into their house and do it better?

Theoretically Correct...

The worst offender for this is BW Tokens. Practically since the dawn of Modern, players have tried to make the deck work, and it hasn't ever been a metagame force. Or even worth considering. Every few years, I see it getting attention as a metagame deck and it's frequently called a Jund killer. The argument is that Jund can't win an attrition fight against a token deck. Jund has to trade a full card of removal for a token, which is only part of a card. The sheer volume of tokens then overwhelms Jund while discard rips up Jund's hand. After all, Lingering Souls is a major reason that Junk is favored over Jund, so more of that is better. Right?

The answer is a flat no. The reason that Souls is good against Jund is that it mutes Liliana of the Veil. Discarding Souls to Liliana is still positive value, and the tokens provide ablative armor against her downtick. Thus, Junk dodged Jund's best card while getting full value from its Liliana. It wasn't the tokens but their context that mattered. Yes, trading a Bolt for a Spirit token is poor value. However, that doesn't make it no value. It also ignores that the tokens are 1/1s facing huge Tarmogoyfs and Scavenging Oozes.

When Jund was big at my LGS back in 2015-2016, I made BW tokens and was continually disappointed by how mediocre my Jund matchup was. Unless I hit my planeswalkers, my tokens could not race any reasonable board state. My creatures were too small, and if I had to start blocking, I probably couldn't stop. And that's not mentioning the impact of sideboard sweepers. Worse, discard was very good against tokens. The underpowered discard deck fighting a powerful discard deck is disadvantaged.

...But Flawed in Reality

Which is a lengthy set-up to me warning against playing the Mono-White Tokens deck that appeared at the end of July.

Mono-W Tokens, Marxelo (7-2, Modern Champs)

Creatures

4 Venerated Loxodon

Enchantments

4 Legion's Landing
4 Intangible Virtue
4 Force of Virtue

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Raise the Alarm
1 Unbreakable Formation

Sorceries

4 Gather the Townsfolk
2 Servo Exhibition
4 Spectral Procession
3 Battle Screech

Lands

3 Shefet Dunes
2 Horizon Canopy
2 Silent Clearing
2 Sunbaked Canyon
2 Windbrisk Heights
11 Plains

Sideboard

4 Auriok Champion
3 Damping Sphere
3 Rest in Peace
1 Unbreakable Formation
2 Conclave Tribunal
2 Worship

This deck is touted as a new and potent metagame deck. The idea is to race Prowess by chumping while beating in the air, especially now that Crash Through sees little play, while going wide and tall with all the anthem effects against everything else. After testing it myself (and watching a lot of Youtube while researching this article), I've come to realize that it's fallen into the same pitfalls as the old BW deck.

The token makers all cost a lot of mana. There's no acceleration, just various ways to pump the tokens. Thus, its speed is more like that of a beatdown deck. When it all comes together and the tokens get a few pumps, the deck looks good. But Force of Virtue is hard to use, Venerated Loxodon is not good tempo, and when tokens starts to fall behind, it stays behind. There's no reset buttons or other ways to catch up; you just make more tokens and hope. Thus, as the linked Jim Davis video shows, Tokens is great at snowballing, but if a single thread comes loose, the whole sweater shreds. He didn't even beat Prowess because, again, Dart is great against x/1s.

The Lesson of Good Metagaming

Metagaming is hard. It's really easy to fall into a trap and miss the subtleties of a deck or a particular matchup and focus on the wrong thing. The new tokens deck is making the same mistakes as the old tokens deck in thinking that going wide with 1/1s is enough to beat attrition decks. It isn't, and never has been. Token decks snowball well, but the ball  breaks apart easily, and catching up is very hard. The mono-white version has an advantage in that it can get explosive with anthem effects, but that doesn't excuse the underlying weakness of needing to draw the right cards in the right order.

Be more like MissTrigger and have a good gameplan that targets the right parts of the matchup. I don't know if Merfolk is going to remain a force in Modern, but as long as the metagame remains as it is, there is a chance.

August ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 1: Batter Skull Emoji

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

August seems like the Month of Stoneforge, with recent format adjustments suddenly favoring the once-banned underdog. At the same time, blue mages lacking a taste for steel are finding their way in this shuffled metagame. Read on to explore the more exciting developments in Modern this month!

Blade Runner 2020

As David noted last week, Stoneblade is performing very strongly online, with the forerunner being UW. Up next is Bant, a deck he posits may have some distinct advantages over the two-color build. But something I've been observing is that if players are winning more with UW, that's not necessarily because they're afraid to try anything else; indeed, a plethora of Stoneforge Mystic options seem viable. Here, we'll consider some of the most promising.

Flashblade, OCELOT823 (5-0)

Creatures

2 Restoration Angel
3 Brazen Borrower
4 Brineborn Cutthroat
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Spell Queller
4 Stoneforge Mystic
2 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

1 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Artifacts

1 Batterskull
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sword of Fire and Ice

Instants

1 Cryptic Command
3 Force of Negation
4 Opt
3 Path to Exile
3 Spell Pierce

Lands

1 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
1 Glacial Fortress
3 Hallowed Fountain
5 Island
2 Plains
2 Polluted Delta

Sideboard

4 Aether Gust
1 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Disenchant
1 Dismember
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Kitchen Finks
3 Rest in Peace

Flashblade revives an age-old Modern archetype in UWx Flash, slotting in Stoneforge to supplement its primary plan of deploying creatures at instant speed should opponnents offer little in the way of juicy counterspell targets on their own turn. While Mystic itself lacks flash, the equipments it can dig up tend to be stellar in this kind of shell, which often leans on mid-game evasive clocks to apply pressure.

Stoneforge also gives a juicy turn two option, and a proactive one at that, for a deck that's historically lacked such options; in the past, UW Flash has slammed creatures as unappealing as Wall of Omens (provides card draw down the road with Restoration Angel, maybe) or otherwise hoped opponents give them something to Mana Leak or Remand. Since neither of those counterspells are particularly alluring in a deck that likes going long, Stoneforge lets Flash decks totally omit them in favor of a question rather than an answer---many decks, still, will lose to Batterskull if they can't immediately take out the Kor. Wielding that threat allows the deck to attack from a novel angle.

Not all Flash decks are on board, and yes, I said Flash decks! UW Flash has shown up multiple times in the dumps this month, and the deck often chooses not to run Stoneforge. In the creature's place is... well, Wall of Omens! Given the aggression we've seen in Modern over the past few months, wanting to hedge more reliably against Monastery Swiftspear & co. doesn't seem like the worst possible idea. As these builds trend more controlling, they also omit Brineborn Cutthroat.

Puresteel Hammer, CRUSHERBOTBG (5-0)

Creatures

4 Puresteel Paladin
4 Memnite
4 Ornithopter
4 Stoneforge Mystic

Artifacts

1 Batterskull
3 Colossus Hammer
2 Cranial Plating
3 Mishra's Bauble
2 Paradise Mantle
1 Shadowspear
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
2 Welding Jar

Enchantments

1 On Thin Ice
4 Sigarda's Aid

Sorceries

4 Steelshaper's Gift

Lands

1 Castle Ardenvale
4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Silent Clearing
10 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

2 On Thin Ice
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Damping Sphere
3 Disenchant
3 Pithing Needle
2 Relic of Progenitus

Puresteel Hammer is an update to the Cheeri0s deck that generated a wave of interest back in 2017. With Mox Opal gone, its turn-two combo potential has shrunken significantly, but the strategy is still capable of explosive plays.

Slamming Puresteel Palladin and then a series of 0-cost equipment not only refills a pilot's hand, but allows them to suit up Palladin to survive Lightning Bolt and the like. Alternatively, equipment can go to the evasive Ornithopter, itself especially fond of Cranial Plating. Still, the star of the artifact show is Colossus Hammer, a cheap weapon that benefits greatly from Palladin's cost reduction; while the trinket generally costs a whopping 8 mana to attach, in this deck doing so often costs 0, letting players toss it around freely between their 0-drop creatures until opponents run out of Fatal Pushes. Even though it energized Cheeri0s the first time around, Sram, Senior Edificer dodges inclusion here, as it doesn't synergize well with Hammer; instead, Sigarda's Edge is employed to add consistency to the Hammer plan via more cost reduction.

In this deck, Stoneforge Mystic serves as a piece of glue, digging up Hammer or Cranial Plating to facilitate big attacks. Naturally, it can also get Batterskull, giving the deck an elegant plan in the face of faster aggro decks.

Boros Hammer, THE_GINGERBRUTE (5-0)

Creatures

1 Swiftblade Vindicator
4 Giver of Runes
4 Kor Duelist
4 Kor Outfitter
4 Spellskite
4 Stoneforge Mystic

Artifacts

4 Colossus Hammer
2 Shadowspear

Enchantments

4 Sigarda's Aid

Instants

4 Magnetic Theft

Sorceries

4 Steelshaper's Gift

Sideboards

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Grand Abolisher
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Path to Exile
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Wear // Tear

Lands

4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Inspiring Vantage
5 Plains
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Sunbaked Canyon

Boros Hammer x is much more tunnel-visioned around the Hammer plan, aiming to give the equipment to double-strike creatures and close out games very quickly. Giver of Runes and Spellskite are both maxed to make going all-in more palatable, and the deck lacks quite options to tutor with Stoneforge or Gift, going so far as to exclude Batterskull.

Space is so tight because of the combo components in play; Aid makes a return, but Palladin is replaced by Magnetic Theft. As an instant, Theft can save creatures from toughness-based removal, but its juiciest application is to end the game as early as turn two: Kor Duelist into Hammer and Theft yields a cool 20 damage. Inkmoth Nexus also threatens instant death when it hits with a Hammer, if not before turn three.

Of course, these plans won't come together every game, explaining Kor Outfitter; this creature usually serves as the deck's Tarmogoyf, or mess-cleaner, coming down and immediately picking up the Hammer to threaten massive damage (specially with the protection granted by Giver and Skite). Alternatively, Outfitter can equip a creature that isn't still sick from summoning.

A couple more techs here merit discussion, chief among them Shadowspear. Without Batterskull in the picture, lifelink on an equipment is at a premium, and fortunately for Boros Hammer, this unassuming legend slots in nicley with its game plans. Lifelink on a 12/12 is eyebrow-raising enough, but it's the trample that makes it actually good; with Spear, pilots need not worry about chump blockers sticking sticks in their spokes. Still, given the deck's eight search effects, I would much prefer to see the reliable Batterskull replace the second Spear and increase Mystic's stock in the list.

Then there's Lurrus, which continues to see play in Modern despite the companion nerf. Some of its proponents run it in the mainboard, but Boros actually uses Lurrus as a companion; while three is a steep price to pay in some games, in grindier ones the lands can add up, and reviving a stripped Hammer or gunned-down Giver each turn can put massive pressure on opponents.

Blue-Pers

Most Stoneforge decks are blue, but as we've seen, not all! By that same token, not all blue decks are Stoneforge decks. While they don't especially fit the narrative of this article, I'd like to briefly discuss a couple interesting blue decks emerging in the leagues.

Stormwing Phoenix, MONKEYANG (5-0)

Creatures

4 Stormwing Entity
4 Arclight Phoenix
3 Bedlam Reveler
2 Merchant of the Vale
2 Ox of Agonas

Instants

4 Dream Twist
2 Izzet Charm
2 Lava Dart
3 Lightning Axe
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
1 Shenanigans

Lands

3 Island
2 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Shivan Reef
4 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Shenanigans
2 Blood Moon
4 Crackling Drake
3 Dragon's Claw
1 Firespout
1 Startling Development
3 Surgical Extraction

What's better than four great three-power fliers? Why, eight, of course! And this time, I'm not talking about Delver of Secrets. Stormwing Phoenix combines the best blue and red have to offer the skies, and given both the proven strength of Stormwing and the card's palpable synergy with the once-feared Arclight plan, there may be something to the fusion.

Both creatures roughly ask the same thing of pilots: that they cast instants and sorceries during their turns. And while Phoenix is robust in that it comes back from the graveyard each turn, Stormwing is by virtue of resisting Lightning Bolt (with an instant), Fatal Push, and Inquisition of Kozilek. It helps, too, that the graveyard hate frequently employed to deal with Arclight, such as Grafdiggers' Cage and Surgical Extraction, does absolutely nothing to Entity, a feature the Elemental shares with Thing in the Ice---that said, conditionally disrupting opponents with Thing and still dying to Push seems a lot worse than just getting them dead with Stormwing while staying strong against more disruption.

Without Looting, Merchant of the Vale, Izzet Charm, and Dream Twist are selected to enable Phoenix, but only the latter demands a full four copies. Milling Phoenix is draw-a-card plus, and it helps that Twist can be recast from the grave as the second spell for the red bird. Ox of Agonas and Bedlam Reveler are also tapped to make full use of the milling and let the underwhelming-on-paper Twist be worth its cost.

Devotion to Blue, BISHARK (5-0)

Creatures

3 Thassa, God of the Sea
1 Thassa, Deep-Dwelling
4 Thassa's Oracle
3 Gadwick, the Wizened
4 Harbinger of the Tides
3 Master of Waves

Enchantments

4 Leyline of Anticipation
4 Omen of the Sea
2 Sea's Claim
4 Spreading Seas

Instants

2 Dismember

Artifacts

2 Mistvein Borderpost
4 Witching Well

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
14 Island
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Sideboard

2 Dismember
2 Chalice of the Void
4 Force of Negation
2 Relic of Progenitus
3 Tidebinder Mage
2 Wrath of Marit Lage

Devotion to Blue, AKA Thassa Tribal, wears its names well, smacking like something out of a lost Standard. Thassa's Oracle specifically has made quite a a splash in Modern, where it enables decks like Ad Nauseam and Dimir Inverter. The card's playability is the main reason for this deck to take form, as previously, anyone looking to play Devotion to Blue in Modern lacked a compelling enabler.

Other surprising hold-togethers include Omen of the Sea, a devotion-pumping Preordain; Spreading Seas, some incidental land hate; and Witching Well, which quickly pays for itself thanks to Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and lets players gas back up in the mid-game.

Body and Mind

That's what we're seeing in Modern---as COVID-19 rages on (admittedly, more in certain parts of the world than others), Modern playes are staying strong and putting their brains to the brew. What's next to come from the quarantined hive mind in August?

Dissecting the Reserved List Buyout

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It’s becoming a daily tradition. Much like 2017, 2020 has become the year of the Reserved List buyouts. Each and every morning I check MTG Stocks’ Interests page to learn which cards were cleared out of TCGplayer. Reviewing the weekly gainers shows the breadth and depth of these buyouts.

Each time a card spikes, a series of emotions and thoughts run through my mind. But acting on instinct would only lead to poor choices—as a collector of Old School cards, the FOMO can be difficult to resist. Luckily, I’ve been through these buyouts before and know what to look for.

This week, I’m going to peel the layers of the onion back, highlighting the research I do when understanding these buyouts. This process helps me keep my emotions in check and prevents me from making rash purchasing decisions that would likely lead to losses.

The Numbers

One Legends card I’ve always appreciated for its beautiful artwork is Pixie Queen. Because of this, I made sure to purchase one copy a few years back—it probably cost me around $10. When the card spiked on MTG Stocks, my interest was immediately piqued. Not because I wanted to sell (though everybody has a price), but because I wasn’t sure why the crazy high price tag came out of nowhere.

The card had been largely bought out, that was for sure. But the nature of TCGplayer’s (and therefore, MTG Stocks’) pricing algorithm was creating the artificially inflated price. TCGplayer calculates its pricing using an average of lightly played and near mint listings. Let’s take a quick look at Pixie Queen’s English TCGplayer listings as of Sunday, August 16th:

While an argument can be made that near mint copies of an Old School card merits some premium, I adamantly disagree with those who value near mint copies three times its moderately played price and nearly ten times the price from a week ago. There’s no sudden demand for this card other than interest driven by speculation. The Reserved List card may not be a $20 card anymore, but even $40 or $50 feels like too much for the unplayable green rare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pixie Queen

The issue is that someone listed ten near mint copies for $200. Then others came in with their copies, slowly undercutting each other to compete. Until additional listings are posted at lower prices (and I guarantee they will be), the TCGplayer pricing reflected will remain inflated. Considering the market price (reflecting actual sales) is $22, it’s readily apparent that these prices are way too high, perhaps designed to highlight the buyout and draw attention.

Here’s another example: consider Elephant Graveyard, a barely-playable land from Arabian Nights. This is another card I have a single copy of for my collection—I acquired it from Card Kingdom for something like $50 just a few months ago. Now it’s $949? I don’t think so….

Check out the listings on TCGplayer:

Prior to the spike, this was a $116 card (for LP/NM copies). The damaged listing isn’t completely unreasonable, at $86.96. And the cheapest LP copy isn’t completely offensive, representing a 3x premium versus the old price. If enough people experience FOMO, that copy could sell. But look at the bottom three listings: $1499, $1995, $2999.95?!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elephant Graveyard

I guess the one copy is graded BGS 9, so maybe that carries some premium (though not that much premium). These listings are not going to actually sell. I can’t pretend to know the sellers’ motivations for sure, but my suspicion is that these listings are set exorbitantly high for the purpose of creating a perceivable “spike” in price.

While not Reserved List, foil Grand Melee is another example of this price manipulation.

This is an ancient foil so it’s no surprise the card has low inventory. But the “market price” for foils is $5.87. There’s no reason this should be showing up on MTGStocks as being worth $2500. But the seller Action Adventure controls half the current inventory, and they are using silly high pricing—this is warping the price and making the card look far more valuable than it actually is. We need to beware this predatory pricing behavior, and truly dig into the data to see if a card truly merits the high price tag or if sellers are purposefully manipulating the price.

People check MTG Stocks, see the card is now “worth $1000”, and scramble to buy up cheaper copies throughout the internet, further cementing the buyout that already started. It’s all a numbers game.

Lost Opportunity? Not Likely.

“But Sig, I’ve been wanting an Elephant Graveyard for my collection and my tribal Elephants Commander deck! Now I can’t afford one!”

Believe me, I completely understand this frustration. The alleged price manipulation displayed above is borderline predatory, seeking to capitalize on FOMO and emotional sentiment just like the quote above. The most important thing to do here is to take a step back and consider a couple points.

First, I need to share some tough love. I understand there may be some younger players new to the game who are interested in buying a few cards from Magic’s history. This population probably exists. But for most others, you’ve had over two decades to acquire these cards at lower prices. These Reserved list buyouts occur every couple years; they should not surprise anyone anymore. If you haven’t prioritized these cards previously, they must not be that critical to your collection. I’m mad I don’t have a Gaea's Cradle and now they’re $700+. But I accept that I didn’t prioritize that card and I have to be OK with not owning one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

Second, consider what happened back in 2017 when we last had rampant Reserved List buyouts. Nearly three years ago to the day, Elephant Graveyard spiked from $50 to $300 according to TCGplayer’s pricing. Four months later it retraced all the way back down to $130. The card ultimately settled in the $100-$120 range. If history is any indication, Elephant Graveyard will likely settle at around 2x-2.5x the previous price—I predict between $200-$250, with MP/HP copies in the $100-$150 range.

Yes, it’s unfortunate that the card is suddenly going to be pricier, and it’s annoying that this increase is driven by speculators and collectors alike. But the price won’t stay 10x its old price for very long. As long as you’re patient, the price will come back down again. You’ve waited decades to acquire the card, a few more months won’t hurt.

Lastly, it may be helpful to remind yourself that at least some of these new, inflated listings are predatory in nature. These sellers are hoping to prey on others FOMO and sell their copies at crazy-high prices to cash in on the trend. They buy a card out, then re-list copies on TCGplayer at 10-20 times the previous price. The card shows up on MTGStocks, people panic-buy, and the speculators profit. The only way to “beat them” is to ignore the card for a few months. Eventually, sellers will race to undercut each other and the price will normalize.

Wrapping It Up

Reserved List buyouts are in vogue again—we’ll probably see cards disappear from the market throughout the next month or so. Eventually, this activity will taper off and things will return to normal. Once that happens, the market will begin its multi-month healing process as supply gradually returns and the price slowly normalizes.

The key here is to eschew emotion in favor of understanding the numbers. During this period of regular buyouts, it’s fun to watch the value of your collection balloon; it’s equally frustrating to see desirable cards disappear from the market. You need to keep a level head and remember that some of the new, inflated listings are predatory in nature.

A good rule of thumb is this: during buyout season, try to be a net seller. In other words, one should be selling cards into these spikes while avoiding FOMO and purchasing the bought-out cards. If in response to a buyout, you can find copies of a card at its “old price”, then it’s probably fine to sink the funds in if it’s a card you’re OK with keeping for a while.

But remember that by doing this, you’re contributing to the buyout even if unintentionally. These market manipulators buy out lightly played and near mint copies on TCGplayer, leaving behind the silly copies listed at $2000 or what have you. The price “spikes” according to MTGStocks, and others buy up the HP/MP copies, as well as any copies at the old price across the internet, and the buyout is thus completed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Golgothian Sylex

The only way to combat this strategy is to not buy. Or, if you want to make a few bucks, you could buy copies you scrounge up at the old price and then list them for a modest profit, undercutting all the other sellers on the market. You are still contributing to a buyout doing this, but at least you are helping the card retrace down to a more normal price.

No matter what you decide to do, the key is to keep emotions in check, examine the data, and only then decide if action is merited. Taking this step back will help you avoid making reckless purchases during a buyout and, hopefully, reduce your anxiety as you see desirable cards temporarily escape your financial reach. A little patience, and a spiked card will inevitably retrace back to normal—it just takes a few months!

Switchblade Combat: UW vs Bant Stoneblade

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

In case you haven't noticed, Magic can be weird. I'm not just talking about cards or mechanics, though mutate, Goblin Game, and Raging River are certainly out there. I'm talking about how counter-intuitive the game can be. Again, not in the Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth still works under Blood Sun sense (though that absolutely qualifies). I mean how things can seem good on paper, and yet prove to be poor in practice. In theory, Neoform combo is utterly busted and should be banned. In reality, it's garbage and taking it to tournaments is a declaration that yes, you do feel lucky today.

Which is really a long-winded way of me saying that I'm still a bit mystified about my own tier list. It's not that I have doubts about the conclusions nor that I think I got it wrong. Rather, I'm really confused about which decks made it and where they stand. That Ponza, a deck that's been niche at best for years, is now Tier 1 is shocking, as is the fall of Amulet Titan. In a vacuum, Amulet is more explosively busted, which would seem to translate into a better metagame position. This is of course the very thing that makes studying the metagame worthwhile in the first place. If apparent power determined actual power, everything could be determined just by reading decklists. As we know, that's not how Magic (let alone Modern) works.

The Problem with Stoneforge

I also found it shocking that UW Stoneblade was tied for second place in Tier 2. It's not that it looks particularly out of place, but because of personal history. I have a history with Stoneforge Mystic dating back to Standard's Cawblade era. And have been frustrated to no end with UW Stonebade since Stoneforge was unbanned. The deck has never performed well for me. Which is not to say that it's ever been a bad deck, but I could never get any consistency. The deck swings wildly between snowballing domination and flailing, floundering, and ultimately drowning under its own strategic plan. My experience, backed up by watching better players try the deck, was that UW Stoneblade is a tempo deck that can't reclaim any tempo that it's lost.

A Proven Deck

I started working on Stoneforge decks right after it was unbanned, and I never really went anywhere with the deck. I built a deck, and even played it to good results in local tournaments. It did well at FNM, and I even took it to a few small cash tournaments and made money. I just never liked the deck. I went through a few iterations during the window between unbanning and Oko, Thief of Crowns making relying on big artifacts unplayable, and this was my final version:

UW Stoneblade, 2019 Test Deck

Creatures

4 Spell Queller
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Artifacts

1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Batterskull

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
3 Pact of Negation
2 Cryptic Command

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
2 Celestial Colonnade
2 Mystic Sanctuary
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Polluted Delta
1 Prismatic Vista
6 Snow-Covered Island
2 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

2 Stony Silence
1 Disenchant
2 Rest in Peace
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Winds of Abandon
1 Damping Sphere
1 Aether Gust

I should note that the split of Polluted Delta and Prismatic Vista was due to a local upsurge in Blood Moon making me prioritize basics.

The deck was fine, and even now you can find very similar decks going 5-0 in Leagues or finishing well in Prelims. Shark Typhoon has been replacing Queller recently, but it's not clear if that's a good metagame decision, flavor of the week, or trading up. Of course, I am a sucker for Spell Queller, so that my just be bias. Still, the fact that players have stuck to the formula for so long indicates that it must be a strong deck. Right?

My Experience

Well, kinda. The power is and has always been there. However, it never felt good. I know how that sounds, but that was ultimately the problem that made me shy away from Stoneblade before Throne of Eldraine made me drop the deck entirely. There were games where I simply dominated. Sitting behind a Batterskull or equipped Sword and T3feri with fist-full of countermagic is a wonderful thing. But more often it felt like I was always playing from behind (regardless of how the game was actually progressing). It was always a very precarious feeling, knowing that you're only ahead because you've snagged something with Queller, and that if they kill Queller before I have T3feri for protection, I'm suddenly losing. Constant stress is not a great selling point.

And then there were the games where I actually was behind. I've experience hopeless matchups before because I've lived through Eldrazi Winter and Hogaak Summer. However, it's rare to realize that there's no way for you to catch back up in a matchup that on paper you're favored in. The only way to interact with the board in a typical Stoneblade deck is Path to Exile, blocking, and planeswalkers. And that's great against small numbers of creatures. However, in any aggro matchup, if I didn't curve out with Batterskull I just got swamped. The only way of catching back up, especially game 1, is to stall with looping Cryptic Command and Mystic Sanctuary until you can find a threat to close the game. Which is slow and fragile, and those loses were just the worst.

A Lesson from History

This is made worse for me by my own history. I played Jeskai Tempo back in late 2017-mid 2018 and I loved that deck. It was the same strategy in principle: play counters and board control, then get a threat down and ride it to victory. Geist of Saint Traft is a great threat when you have burn to clear the road, which was the key to that deck. It was so mana-efficient that it just pushed through every other deck. If it fell behind, the burn would hold the line and Snapcaster Mage cleaned up. Jace was legal by that point, but I wasn't playing it because it cut into the highly proactive gameplan. The opponent was never safe from being burned out and struggled to gain traction. Thus Jeskai still ended up playing from behind, but it could do that and still win.

In contrast, Stoneblade is only proactive if it sticks a turn-two Stoneforge Mystic. At all other times, it's reactive. Stoneblade is primarily counters, and if those don't line up correctly, it's just finished. Path-Snap-Path then start blocking is the only way to fight out from a creature swarm, a line that fares poorly against swaths of tougher beaters. Stoneblade leans heavily on Batterskull holding the ground. And it's very good at that, but that won't always work. Or opponent's will kill the 'Skull, and there goes the whole plan. The deck just struggles when its cards don't line up, which is far more likely thanks to being more reactive. Thus, I can't stand playing the deck and am surprised when it does well.

The Alternative

This is especially confusing when I think there's a better version out there. It's certainly seen more play since Stoneforge was unbanned. And I enjoy playing it more than UW. I am, of course, talking about Bant Snowblade.

Bant Snowblade, GabbaGandalf (MTGO League 5-0)

Creatures

3 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Stoneforge Mystic
1 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

2 Teferi, Time Raveler
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Artifacts

1 Batterskull
1 Sword of Feast and Famine

Sorceries

2 Supreme Verdict

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Mana Leak
2 Force of Negation
1 Archmage's Charm
2 Cryptic Command

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Flooded Strand
2 Windswept Heath
2 Breeding Pool
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Field of Ruin
1 Temple Garden
1 Mystic Sanctuary
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Plains
4 Snow-Covered Island

Sideboard

2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Veil of Summer
4 Aether Gust
2 Celestial Purge
1 Dovin's Veto
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Timely Reinforcements

In my estimation, this deck plays far better than UW Stoneblade. All of the threats can be played proactively for value, which means Bant actually advances its gameplan more often and more consistently than UW does. Ice-Fang Coatl continues to be a very solid card, and in non-aggro games can end up putting in a surprising amount of pressure. Uro being recurrable means that Bant can play more fearlessly into open blue mana than UW will, and what this means is that Bant plays more like Jeskai did. And when I'm testing with the deck, I have a lot more fun than sweating through UW.

The real bonus as far as I'm concerned is the aggro matchup. While the main interaction is still Path, Bant runs Supreme Verdict which is a literal lifesaver. Bant can get overwhelmed just like UW, though activated Ice-Fang helps considerably. The difference is that Bant has Verdict as an actual out and a means to regain a lost board. Add in Uro's lifegain and games against Prowess, Dredge, and Ponza feel infinitely better.

The final plus for Bant is in sideboarding. All the best hate is in white and shared between decks, but green gives Bant access to Veil of Summer. It's still the best anti-Jund card out there, though mass adoption of Aether Gust makes it less effective in UWx mirrors.

The Problem

Given that Prowess is storming to the top of the metagame, and in my experience Bant feels better in that matchup, it would make sense for Bant to still be tiering highly. Definitely not as high as it was with Arcum's Astrolabe, but I expected it to still be a metagame presence. However, that clearly isn't the case, as no Bant deck made the Tier list at all. Meanwhile, UW just kept racking up results. And I'm left wondering how it all happened.

The blow from losing Astrolabe was heavy, I'll admit. Ice-Fang is a removal spell far less often, and the deck can't just spend all its time cantripping anymore. Thus, there's been a small consistency hit. However, that loss can't explain the dramatic decline because the core of the deck's power (Uro and counters) is still intact. It's possible, though completely undeterminable, that players are simply walking away because the nostalgia is too great. Much like my lament for Jeskai Tempo, pre-ban Bant players see just how much better the deck used to be and the disparity between the heyday and now is too much to bear. Perhaps the popularity has fallen off despite the power hit being non-fatal. That sounds likely to me, but I'll never be able to measure it, much less prove it.

Another explanation may be deck-of-the-week syndrome. Again, Shark Typhoon is seeing a surge of play in UW, and players are always more excited to try the new thing rather than stick to old standbys. This may account for some of UW's increase, but there's nothing stopping Bant from doing it too. I don't see how or why Bant wouldn't adopt Typhoon if it's really that good when UW can. In point of fact, I don't see Bant adopting Typhoon as frequently as UW, but I don't know why that's happening and don't think it's intrinsic to either deck.

The Usual Suspect

One thing I can measure is the manabase. Bant's is far more painful than UW, and in a world full of Prowess, that may be the killer. This is not unique to this era of Bant; it was just as painful pre-Astrolabe. The thing is that Bant has to actually feel the pain more often. Astrolabe fixed mana both directly (changing one color to another) and indirectly (being a cantrip). This meant that Bant didn't have to fetch and shock as often, giving it a manabase on net as painless and stable as UW. Now that it has to be reasonable again, players must be deciding that the extra power isn't worth the life, even though I hold that Uro makes up for the life loss. Given my testing showing that Bant is as well positioned or better than UW, that pain is the only explanation I can come up with.

That's How It Is

Sometimes it's the little things that matter most. Power isn't everything in Magic, and even a tiny edge can mean everything. Despite feeling a lot worse to me both in goldfish terms and in many matchups, the greater Modern community has determined that UW Stoneblade is superior to Bant Snowblade. At least for now, well see what August's data says.

Insider: An In Depth Look at All the New “Rarities” Part 2

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Today we continue with our look at the new rarities discussed last time. If you haven't read that article yet, it can be found here.

Set Breakdown, Continued

Theros Beyond Death

We'll start with the extended art options, as these were again only available in the Collector Boosters. According to our breakdown, we have 54 extended art rares and mythics that could be pulled in the nonfoil slot. Unfortunately, I don't have any pull data from Theros Beyond Death, but if we assume the standard 1/8 probability of the extended art card being a mythic instead of a rare then with the 12 packs in a Collector Booster box, you could expect 1.5 extended art mythics, which equates to around a 30% probability of getting any specific one.

The Collector Booster packs had a second slot that could house a foil extended art rare or mythic, but that slot also could contain a standard foil rare or mythic, so the odds of getting any specific extended art card drop accordingly.

The second slot is the only slot possible for foil extended art cards. While I couldn't find any large scale pull data, from watching a few Collector Booster box openings it seems like somewhere around 1/4 of the time the foil slot was an extended art.

If the foil extended art cards are about 1 in 4 packs of Collector Boosters only and there are a total of 54 options, then you would expect to have to open 18 boxes of Collector Boosters to get 1 of each. Given the MSRP of those boxes, that is a lot of money, which again makes me think that the extended art foils may be undervalued currently.

If we look at just the mythic options for Theros Beyond Death, we get an average foil multiplier of 2.3 between regular version and extended art and 2.69 between extended art and extended art foil. What is most interesting is that Nyxbloom Ancient has the lowest overall multiplier between regular versions and extended art foils of just 3.93x, which given its high demand in Commander seems criminally low.

If we look at the borderless cards from Theros Beyond Death, it seems to be typical with the first few sets these are limited to the planeswalkers of the set. Unfortunately, the planeswalkers of Theros Beyond Death are, put frankly, underwhelming. The market price for the three planeswalkers is abysmal; including the borderless variants. As of 8/5/20 they are;

  • Ashiok, Nightmare Muse- $4.29
  • Calix, Destiny's Hand- $2.11
  • Elspeth, Sun's Nemesis- $2.06

These are basically bulk mythic status, so the fact that all 3 of the sets planeswalkers have hit these lows says a lot about the value of the set overall. If your box doesn't include Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath then you're likely in the red. Now luckily, this set hasn't quite gotten as bad as Dragon's Maze, as there are still a few $10+ mythics in it, but most of the value is tied up in Uro.

However, this lack of value could actually be good for speculators. If you choose a card out of this set, especially one of the special rare variants that ends up blowing up in the future, it's likely to have a higher price ceiling because of how low so many of the other cards are. This is not a set where cracking collector's packs comes out super profitable.

Core 2021

Again the extended art cards are limited to Collector Boosters only. Yet again, we have a guaranteed extended art rare or mythic and 2 potential foil extended arts. Though, when we look back at the pull rate data from last week we see that the Ikoria Collector Boosters tended to have a foil extended art rare around 27% of the time.

The good news is the Ikoria Collector Booster only had 1 slot for these to show up in, while the Core 2021 has 2 slots, so we could expect to see significantly more foil extended art rare/mythics from Core 2021 Boosters. What makes this more interesting is when we do another price comparison and multiplier table for the Core 2021 options.

Looking at this table we get similar results to Theros Beyond Death with an average of a 1.8x multiplier for extended art vs regular art and an average of 2.25x of extended art foil vs extended art.

The other interesting change found in Core 2021 was the increase in the borderless options, instead of only featuring planeswalkers; Core 2021 included three other Commander cards. In fact, these cards were what actually inspired me to dig into this topic. The prices for these seemed criminally low compared to "rarer" rares.

Looking back at the tables showing the pull rates for these cards, we see that a draft booster box tended to have around a 6% pull rate for a foil mythic borderless card and an 11% pull rate for a foil rare borderless card. For nonfoils, we saw around a 38% chance for a mythic borderless and a 91.5% for a rare borderless. What this says to me is that there will likely be A LOT of the rare borderless cards in supply as one typically gets 1 per box. This seems to be reflected in their very low prices. What gets a bit more interesting is the foil borderless as the multiplier is noticeably lower than the probability comparison would suggest.

After all, if we divide the probabilities we would expect about 6 nonfoil mythic borderless cards to be opened for every foil one, of course, that is strictly from draft boosters. The data from the Collector Boosters has a lot more foil borderless cards with one expecting between 2 and 3 foil mythic borderless and 6 and 7 foil rare borderless per Collector Booster box. I believe that the reason the multiplier is currently so low is because we've had a massive glut of supply enter the market. People cracked Collector Boosters and started putting more cards into circulation, but once the Collector Boosters dry up, I expect the prices to rise.

Conclusion

I currently believe that some of the cheaper borderless foils from Core 2021 may be decent pickups. I myself have picked up about 6 foil Cultivate as it looks gorgeous in foil and prior to the Core 2021 reprint I have successfully sold 20-30x other versions of the card for $1-$2 each over the past 2 years. I bring that up because it is a ubiquitous card in Commander decks that play green and core sets tend not to sell as well and thus supply tends to be lower in the longer term.

To make matters even more interesting we had both Jumpstart and Double Masters release shortly after Core 2021 so many players are forced to ration their Magic expenses across multiple product lines, thus I expect even less Core 2021 supply than usual.

Five Under-The-Radar Reserved List Cards

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It’s Sunday morning, and I am doing my daily check of MTG Stocks’ Interests page. I wish I could say that I’m surprised by the latest seemingly random Reserved List buyout, but these have become so commonplace these days that all I can do is chuckle and shrug.

Like many others, I assume, I rushed off to an array of domestic sites to search for any stock of Ancestral Knowledge at the old price, but to no avail. The buyout was fast and thorough this time. A shame too, because I actually like the art on this one and wouldn’t have minded owning one for my small “for keeps” collection.

Oh well, I had years to acquire a copy and I simply never prioritized it. There’s no need to sit here pining for a copy now as that isn’t productive.

What is productive, though, is what the rest of this article will be about. There are probably other Reserved List cards I would like to own a copy of but haven’t prioritized. Maybe I should look at grabbing my copies now before the next sudden buyout occurs and I’m left with the FOMO that ensues. Some playable Reserved List cards just may be the next buyout target.

Five Smart Reserved List Pickups

1. Carrion

There was an error retrieving a chart for Carrion

Obviously, I’m not considering this card for its artwork. Yuck! Rather, there are a couple of things I like about this Reserved List card from Mirage. First, it has the ability to generate a ton of creatures at instant speed. While 0/1’s don’t do a whole lot by themselves, there are many things one can do with so many creatures. Granted, this card sees almost no play in Commander according to EDH REC, but the card’s ability isn’t useless like some other Reserved List cards.

The second factor that convinces me this is a solid pick is the stock on TCGplayer. There are currently 59 listings—a surprisingly low number considering the minimal play this card sees. Maybe the card is more popular than I initially thought. Card Kingdom’s buylist is $2.05, so there must be some demand for this card.

Here’s my last piece of rationale for this card…get your tin foil hat ready. Check out this snapshot of some list Reserved List cards on the mothership’s website. Notice anything weird?

Most other cards on the site can be viewed by mousing over the card to view the pop-up image. But Carrion (along with a couple others) is excluded. Surely, this site has been around for years now so any bugs would have already been caught and corrected, right? Even Invoke Prejudice has a mouse-over image stating the card is racist and its image has been pulled. What is so special about Carrion, I wonder?

2. Chaosphere

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chaosphere

Other than dragons and phoenixes, Red isn’t known for flying creatures. That strength typically belongs to White and Blue. No worries, because Chaosphere and turn the world on its head! It essentially gives flying creatures non-flying and non-flying creatures flying, at least in how they can/can’t block each other.

I remember playing this card after opening it up in a booster pack a long time ago, when I first started playing Magic. While it doesn’t see much play in Commander today, I think it could find a home somewhere. If nothing else, it could slot into a chaos-type deck with random effects. The card is a couple bucks on TCGplayer and buylists for $1.75 on Card Kingdom’s site. While there are about twice as many copies for sale vs. Carrion, the stock isn’t infinitely deep. If this is a card you’ve been wanting for a long time but haven’t prioritized, there’s no harm in picking up your playset sooner rather than later.

3. Phyrexian Purge

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Purge

How much are you willing to pay in a game of Magic for a one-sided wrath effect? You can do it for nine mana using Plague Wind, for that’s a lot of mana. The cost is less prohibitive in Commander, I suppose, but still requires dedication of a turn’s worth of resources. It also takes a while to set up.

Enter Phyrexian Purge, a more versatile removal spell that can function as a one-sided wrath for just four mana! Granted, you have to pay three life per creature, but life is plentiful in Commander! The card is also flexible, in that you don’t have to kill every creature on the board—you could choose to kill only the three or four giving you the most difficulty at that point in time.

This one I really like because its stock on TCGplayer is relatively low: only 35 listings. Card Kingdom is paying $2.50 on their buylist, and I can see that climbing in the near future. The artwork doesn’t resonate with me all that much, but it has that classic Mirage feel to it. This one has potential to pop.

4. Flooded Shoreline

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flooded Shoreline

This Visions Reserved List rare isn’t likely to spike tomorrow. But I mentioned it here because it could see increased Commander play if more people knew about it. Erratic Portal (an $8 card) has some advantages to Flooded Shoreline, I’ll admit: it’s colorless and only requires one mana to activate. But in blue decks, I wonder if Flooded Shoreline is equally good.

Returning Islands to one’s hand can be annoying, but is only really problematic in early turns. Later on in the game, excess lands in hand can be pitched to card sifting effects like Compulsive Research. The advantage of this card over Erratic Portal is the lack of conditionality—that creature is bounced to its owner’s hand and there’s no mana that can be paid to prevent it. This means there are a good number of circumstances where this card is better than the Portal, the most important of which is that you can use Flooded Shoreline even if your opponent has mana open!

You can also use Flooded Shoreline multiple times in a turn and the enchantment only costs two to cast (vs. 4 for Erratic Portal). I’m envisioning playing this enchantment, bouncing my own Vendilion Clique at the end of opponent’s turn, flashing it back in, and then bottoming an Island to draw a card. Oh the value…

5. Bone Dancer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bone Dancer

Let’s face it, this card is no Thada Adel, Acquisitor, but that doesn’t mean it’s unplayable. The obvious application of this creature is to give it some sort of evasion with another card, and then go to town resurrecting your opponent’s creatures one at a time. But there’s more to this card than meets the eye.

Imagine a multiplayer game of Commander, where alliances are being forged through diplomacy. A player can attack an ally with this card and, under agreement, forego damage to resurrect their creatures. There’s more to this creature than meets the eye, which is probably why this is a $3 card and buylists to Card Kingdom for $1.60.

Wrapping It Up and Honorable Mentions

In hindsight, I could have approached this article in a different way. Rather than going semi-deep into five cards, I could have kept my analyses brief and talked about ten cards. Or twenty cards. In reality, the Reserved List is filled with artwork gems, corner cases, unique effects, and Commander playable cards.

With minimal explanation, I have a few honorable mentions worth touching upon. First, there’s Bazaar of Wonders, which isn’t a great card but has sweet artwork reminiscent of Bazaar of Baghdad. Corrosion is still near-bulk, but could see play in BR Commander decks as a way of gradually removing all of the opponents’ mana rocks. Forbidden Ritual is also near bulk, but is kind of a precursor to Bolas's Citadel. Remember all those 0/1’s generated by Carrion? I just found a good use for them!

Then there’s Goblin Bomb, Lotus Vale, Heat Stroke, Psychic Vortex, Dominating Licid, and (albeit more costly already) Lifeline. The list goes on and on—there are so many strange and interesting cards with powerful, unique effects on the Reserved List.

It’s impractical to rush out and buy a playset of every card on the list. But as the Reserved List garners interest from the speculator community again, now may be a good time to acquire those cards which you’ve been wanting but haven’t yet prioritized. It’s too late for me and Ancestral Knowledge, but don’t make the same mistake I did. I listed a handful of Reserved List cards that caught my eye, but there are many out there worth considering. Pick up what looks interesting to you, and ignore the rest, knowing you don’t have to worry about the sudden buyouts any longer!

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation