With Modern Horizons 3 near, the Modern metagame is holding its breath. Players are choosing to play established decks and coast to the metagame's finish.

The post May ’24 Metagame Update: Waiting for Horizons first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

I haven't had to do that many metagame updates for February, it being the month where bans tend to happen. That wasn't the case this month, though I suspect that the data will add fuel to the banning call fires. I understand, but I'd caution everyone to consider the context before jumping to conclusions. February's data is defined by the Regional Championships and that created a localized warp.

The post February ’24 Metagame Update: Championship Changes first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

There is a clear metagame warp in January's data. However, it appears to be driven less by actual metagame forces than Magic Online being Magic Online.

The post January ’24 Metagame Update: Convergent Consensus first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Time to close the books on 2023. It's been quite a year. We saw two of the biggest sustained warps in Modern's history, banned and restricted policy reverted to an earlier form, and we had the first unban since 2019.

The post December ’23 Metagame Update: Holiday Hangover first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

With Fury and Up the Beanstalk banned, Modern is set to dramatically change. The data clearly shows how necessary the bans were, though the impact is uncertain.

The post November ’23 Metagame Update: A New World first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Modern continues to be dominated to an extreme degree by Scam. There has been innovation in the lower tiers, but it appears that the status quo will persist.

The post October ’23 Metagame Update: It Got Worse first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

In September, Modern's metagame developed along the same lines as it did in August. This is not a good thing, and it is getting much worse. David has the data.

The post September ’23 Modern Metagame Update: Getting Cheated first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

August was... unexpected. Wizards threw everyone off with their Ban Day decisions. Bans were expected in Standard (based on Wizards' own statements) and hoped for in multiple other formats. Instead, Modern and Legacy saw unbans. The impact this has had will be on display in this metagame update.

The post August ’23 Modern Metagame Update: The Unban’s Effect first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

The Pro Tour strongly reflects the impact of Tales of Middle Earth. Modern's metagame is warping around the set to an alarming degree. The data is quite clear.

The post July ’23 Metagame Update: The Pro Tour Effect first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

The June Modern Metagame Update is here. New additions have stirred Modern's mostly stagnant metagame, but that might not be permanent. David has the details.

The post June ’23 Metagame Update: Churn Returns first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Despite data indicating the recession of certain negative trends, Modern's metagame is moving in concerning directions... and towards becoming solved.

The post May ’23 Metagame Analysis: Trending Concerning first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

The Modern Metagame Update is out. Modern continues to be stable, despite efforts of rogue decks to make a mark. Some unexpected decks did well in May.

The post May ’23 Metagame Update: Continued Continuity first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

April's Modern metagame data is deceptive. The tale that the numbers suggest isn't the story that actually happened. David E has the explanation inside.

The post April ’23 Metagame Analysis: Not Neck and Neck first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

April's Modern Metagame Update shows the top decks settling in while innovation and change rock the lower tiers. And Murktide has a surprise for us, too!

The post April ’23 Metagame Update: Looking Familiar first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

What is the best deck in Modern? There are many possible answers, but David E. has the data-driven case for Murktide being the best deck in Modern today.

The post Caught Blue-Handed: Is Murktide Modern’s Best Deck? first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

While the data is clear, the reasons behind Modern's metagame trends remains elusive. David E. has a finger on the deck driving the changes, and how to respond.

The post March ’23 Metagame Analysis: A Fable of Outliers first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

The March Modern Metagame Update is ready. Modern is incredibly stable, and that is translating into highly polarized, and not ideal, data. David E. explains.

The post March ’23 Metagame Update: Overwhelming Outliers first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

How much of Modern's "diversity" is really just the same strategies masquerading as different decks? David E. asks whether the numbers really do lie.

The post Data Danger: Modern Is Not as Diverse as You Think first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

The February Modern Metagame Update is here, and its data seems deeply at odds with the claims Wizards made about format win rates. What's the real story?

The post February ’23 Metagame Update: Closed Circle first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Modern's metagame has been shaken up repeatedly, but that's not obvious looking at winning decks. Modern is thus in a complicated place, as David E. explains.

The post State of Modern: 2022 Edition first appeared on Quiet Speculation.