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Daily Stock Watch: Logic Knot

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Hello, readers and welcome to the Friday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! This weekend, there will be at least three good-sized Modern tournaments that could give us another glimpse of what new archetype might emerge in the format, or if an old reliable would continue its strong run and prove to be the best deck in the field. There has been strong clamor from pros such as Patrick Chapin and Todd Stevens that control is going to be a thing in Modern again. In the wake of their claims, some Jeskai, Esper, and UW decks have slowly made their ways to top eight finishes in both online, and paper tournaments. They might be right in their assessment that now might be the best time to play control again.

I got carried away with that long introduction. Here's our card for today:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Logic Knot

This card from Future Sight was sitting in your trash bin for years, unwanted and unloved, and remained in that state when it was reprinted in Modern Masters. It hasn't been popular because players think that it is not a solid counter like Remand, and is not as strong as Mana Leak, for that two mana permission slot. It also depends on the delve mechanic, which means that this is a pretty useless card on turn two if you're staring at an empty graveyard.

But time has passed and such is not the case anymore. Delve is quite a popular mechanic nowadays, and a lot of decks are running fetchlands, turn one cantrips (Thought Scour/ Serum Visions) or discard spells (Thoughtseize/Inquisition of Kozilek), which assures the blue mage that it wouldn't be firing blanks on a turn two Logic Knot. A case can be made that this is a double blue mana spell, which makes it hard to splash in a non-blue heavy control shell.

But fret not, cause Patrick Chapin will always have cool Grixis ideas, to save the day.

Grixis Azcanta Control

Creatures

1 Torrential Gearhulk
1 Gurmag Angler
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Instants and Sorceries

1 Countersquall
4 Cryptic Command
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Logic Knot
2 Mana Leak
4 Opt
2 Spell Snare
2 Terminate
2 Search for Azcanta
1 Dreadbore
2 Serum Visions

Lands

3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Blood Crypt
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Creeping Tar Pit
3 Darkslick Shores
4 Polluted Delta
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Spirebluff Canal
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Countersquall
4 Dispel
1 Fatal Push
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Damnation

Three color deck? No problem. Logic Knot basically serves it purpose here by being the mid to late game solid counter spell of the deck, once it has established its board position. It also benefits from how the deck is constructed, as it is filled by the same cards that I mentioned above which makes delve possible.

Popular Delve Cards

Among the cards above, only Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise are seeing limited action across all formats (because they are banned in some of them). Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Gurmag Angler, Become Immense, and Logic Knot are still seeing play in competitive decks in Modern and Legacy. Tombstalker is still a vital cog of Legacy decks, and along with Logic Knot and Death Rattle, are the only delve cards that were printed in Future Sight. Among all these cards, only Logic Knot was printed in any Masters set even though it wasn't really a popular card that needed reprinting. With these things in mind, it's safe to assume that there will be more delve cards in the future, and that Logic Knot will probably see another reprint within the next five years.

With that being said, I think it's safe to say that you could let go of your copies as soon as it hits $5. I'm not a fan of penny stocks, so I'm not counting on it to spike higher ala Countersquall. If you could get your hands on foil copies of it for less than $10 (of any version since the FS version is priced relatively high), go ahead and do so. That should be worth a lot someday.

You could get copies of Logic Knot from TCGPlayer for $3.99 while supplies last. Star City Games and Channel Fireball are out of stock, and I'm not sure how much they'll sell it for, once supplies are back. If you're fast enough, you should be able to get them for a dollar each via Card Kingdom. You're welcome.

And that’s it for this week's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again on Monday, as we take a look at a new card. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: Jake and Joel and Friday Night with Quiet Speculation

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Insider: Grinding Value Out of My Magic Collection

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This week has been a relatively quiet one for Magic finance, and the focus on Unstable spoilers isn’t exactly having a big market impact. Nothing inspired me to write until I realized that I could share what finance work I have been doing this week. Last week, I shared my story of processing an old box of bulk cards that yielded fruit, and I have continued the process of cleaning out my collection with the goal of selling cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cleansing

I had built up a box with a few hundred cards I wanted to sell, so I set out pricing it and finding the best route to sell each card. Not all cards are created equal, and the best way to sell one card may not be the same as another. In order to eke out the full value for each card, I checked multiple things.

First, I used TCGplayer as a quick and dirty price guide to see its general value. I wanted to stick to the advice David Schumann laid out in his article, where he got into the details of pricing and explained why selling anything less than $5 was a losing proposition. The numbers themselves – plus the tedium of selling a large number of orders for small amounts ofĀ  value – meant I would keep cards I posted to TCGplayer above $5, which is at odds with how I have used it in the past. Rather than use it as an outlet for anything and everything, it’s a way to extract maximum value from a card by selling it as close to retail as possible.

It may be even more valuable to post cards, especially higher-end cards, on Facebook groups as a way to reduce transaction costs. I’ve had a difficult time gaining any interest posting cards there, except when I advertised dual lands, which saw a ton interest, and I ultimately did not sell, so it leads me to believe it could be a great way to sell the highest-end cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Island

Before I posted any near-mint and very lightly played cards to TCGplayer, I checked its buylist price on Trader Tools. The spread on some cards is small enough that the buylist price will equal or even exceed the price you can get on TCGplayer when fees are considered, and it’s an immediate option that helps insulate against price changes, so it’s a preferable outlet. The ability to sell played cards on TCGplayer is one of it’s best strengths, so it should be seen as a complement to buylists.

Trade Routes

I began to list some Return to Ravnica block shocklands that I have been hoarding for years, but I realized that they might have more value in my trade binder. I haven’t done any trading over the past few years after binging on it locally a handful of years ago, but I’ve been thinking about taking advantage of large tournaments I travel to play in by doing some trading.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sacred Foundry

Staples like shocklands are like currency in a trade binder, and might be some great ammunition to kickstart my trading. Shocklands should also hold up better to trading-up , and I can argue for not marking down their value like other cards often are when trading into high-end staples.

I realized that trading could also be a great outlet for played cards, like my set of lightly played Through the Breach. Like some other relatively expensive cards, these have significant discounts on price compared to near-mint versions, but will likely hold higher value in a trade to someone who needs a playset for gameplay.

The trade binder is also an outlet for cards that dealers and buylists aren't typically interested in, specifically foreign cards, and cards that can't really be sold in good faith on TCGplayer, specifically signed and event-stamped cards, which might actually gain some value in a trade to the right person.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathrite Shaman

So now I’m set on a project of making a simple but effective trade binder to take to events and try to trade-up into some higher-end cards. I’ll definitely report back about my trading experience once I get some time on the floor.

Seller of Cardboard

The majority of my sell box didn’t meet the $5 threshold for TCGplayer, or anywhere near it, and many cards were too played to want to buylist, so I have to explore other options.

It’s possible that buylisting played cards could still be the best option in some cases, so I’ll have to further investigate individual stores for their policies and prices. A simple way to sell these cards, and the method I used last time I sold many similar cards, was to assess their buylist value if near-mint and organize them by price in a box, with the intent to shop it around to dealers at events and offer the cards for sale. David Schumann laid out how he did this process at GP Atlanta, and by employing it I’ll ideally get more value and sell more cards more quickly than any other method.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gray Ogre

Where I am struggling to find an outlet is for cards that are above the price of bulk, but a bit clunky to be carrying around to shop around to dealers, many who probably aren’t looking to transport or deal with such low-value cards. Last time I shopped around a box of sorted cards, the price went down to 10 cents, but there are a ton of cards worth around five cents I pulled when I ran bulk through the Ion Scanner, which when taken all together are worth more than a nominal amount.

It may be that shopping these around is the best plan, but rather than offering them to be picked, offer them as a package deal, like a thousand-count box for $50. The buyers could look through them and make an offer on the box, which would allow me to move the cards immediately for a significant amount, and might be a good deal for a store that can move the cards at retail.

There’s also the matter of true bulk, and one way to eke a little extra value is to sell them on Craigslist. I’ve done it before and earned more for my cards than I would have selling to a dealer, and they could also be a boon to a new player looking for a cheap buy-in.

What's your strategy for getting the most value from your cards weighed against efficiency and minimizing time spent?

–Adam

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Adam Yurchick

Adam started playing Magic in 1999 at age 12, and soon afterwards he was working his trade binder at school, the mall food court, FNM, and the Junior Super Series circuit. He's a long-time Pro Tour gravy-trainer who has competed in 26 Pro Tours, a former US National Team member, Grand Prix champion, and magic.tcgplayer.com columnist. Follow him at: http://twitter.com/adamyurchick

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Posted in Buylist, Finance, Free Insider, Selling, TCGPlayer, TradingTagged 2 Comments on Insider: Grinding Value Out of My Magic Collection

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Triple Threat: My Aggro-Control Weapons of Choice

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I've been singing Modern's praises for, well, ever. At one time, I thought I was either the format's single biggest proponent or just some kind of insane zealot. But as time goes on and Modern steadily grows in popularity, articles like PVDDR's "The Problem with Modern" start looking hopelessly dated, and are met with a rising tide of affirming format-explainers like Jadine Klomparen's "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Modern."

While singing those praises of mine, I've written from a theoretical standpoint about many format features I enjoy. Not in a while, though, have I engaged with my love of Modern on a more personal level. In Magic, I like combat, and I like interacting. So naturally, aggressive decks with disruptive elements tend to end up my favorites. Today's article covers the three decks I'm currently on that allow me to get all I need out of the format, each boasting its own unique style (and set of spells, besides lone repeat Tarmogoyf) without escaping the aggro-control macro-archetype.

Thresh: A Quick Clock and some "No"

Thresh is a spell-based tempo archetype that rides a few fast, efficient threats to victory by supplementing them with ample reactive disruption. The strategy never gained much traction in Modern, a format historically dominated by the rock decks that tend to hassle thresh; it's far more celebrated in Legacy. Still, as BGx Rock loses shares to focused aggro decks like Shadow and Humans, thresh becomes more appealing here.

I used to get my thresh kicks on Temur Delver, a deck I came to be known for. But I've held since the Gitaxian Probe banning that Counter-Cat is where thresh players want to be in Modern.

Counter-Cat, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
2 Thought Scour
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Sleight of Hand
3 Chart a Course

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
2 Arid Mesa
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Flooded Strand
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Temple Garden
1 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

1 Snapcaster Mage
2 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Spreading Seas
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Negate
2 Engineered Explosives
1 Pithing Needle
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Pyroclasm

Counter-Cat seeks to set up a board advantage (a feat often as simple as playing a turn one Wild Nacatl) and then maintain it until the opponent loses through combat. So if opponents start ahead, Counter-Cat plays the midrange game to claw back ahead on the board; otherwise, it sits on permission spells to get in free attacks, and dumps its hand of stockpiled threats when it runs out. The deck's robust sideboard allows it to seamlessly transition into a removal-heavy midrange deck, a creature-heavy aggro deck, or a permission-heavy tempo deck as needed.

Further reading:

Strengths & Weaknesses

The deck's transformative sideboard abilities give it game against a large portion of the field, but a couple strategies or key cards line up so well against us that we're dogs to them no matter what. Those cards are Knight of the Reliquary, Drowner of Hope, and Runed Halo. Counter-Cat's toughest matchups are UW Control, Bant Eldrazi, Mardu Reveler.

On the bright side, threat-light aggro decksĀ (Burn; Affinity; Infect),Ā synergy-dependant aggro decks (Merfolk; Slivers; Spirits), and uninteractive combo decksĀ (Counters Company; Storm; Valakut) are all a breeze to beat. Three-color midrange decks and Eldrazi decks besides Bant find themselves in the middle.

What's New

Not much has changed since the last version of Counter-Cat I posted here, but I have switched out the second Ancient Grudge for another Engineered Explosives in the side. Explosives is in a great spot for a deck like this one, since it deals with the pesky three-drops we hate---and that are now on the rise. I made the swap a couple weeks ago as a concession to Humans.

Stompy: Lock You Out, Beat You Down

Stompy decks are relative newcomers to Modern, first bursting onto the scene at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy and sticking around to some degree in Skred and Eldrazi Tron. The archetype wants to slam lock pieces and follow up with big threats, killing opponents before they can draw out of the lock.

Both as a Blood Moon aficionado generally and as a person who's always wanted Chalice of the Void to succeed in Modern, I'm a big fan of the strategy. As soon as the "little" Eldrazi creatures were spoiled, I got to work on various stompy shells, and still play the one that dominated the Pro Tour.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
2 Matter Reshaper
2 Endless One
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
3 Gemstone Caverns
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
2 Sea Gate Wreckage
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
3 Ratchet Bomb
1 Pithing Needle
1 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Spatial Contortion
1 Gut Shot
1 All is Dust

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy leverages Serum Powder and Gemstone Caverns, each propped up by Eternal Scourge, to aggressively mulligan into hands that operate at a speed opponents can't compete with. Any five-to-seven-card hand without a "free win" dimension is usually sent back. Those dimensions include turn one Chalice of the Void (against Serum Visions decks and aggro-combo), Eternal Scourge (against removal-heavy midrange decks), and, of course, Eldrazi Temple.

Further reading:

Strengths & Weaknesses

It makes the most sense to discuss this deck's strengths and weaknesses relative to those of its natural foil, Eldrazi Tron. Stompy is definitely unfavored in that pseudo-mirror, as well as weaker to value-based Company decks. But it gains points elsewhere: our Affinity, Storm, and Ad Nauseam matchups are quite good, for instance, as are our creature combo matchups. Gx Tron is also a cinch for Stompy thanks to Eldrazi Mimic and our faster Chalices. I also prefer our odds against Shadow, since in addition to Chalice of the Void, we pack a full set of Relic and the frustrating Scourge package.

Differences aside, Stompy obviously has many similarities with Eldrazi Tron. Like that deck, we're practically invulnerable to Blood Moon, and can steal plenty of games with Chalice or Thought-Knot. We're also helpless in the face of Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle without a quick start.

What's New

For starters, the flex spot split in the main now consists of 2 Matter Reshaper, 2 Endless One, and 1 Smuggler's Copter. Reshaper's stock falls as the format becomes unintractive, and without so much Fatal Push anymore, I like cutting two for Endless Ones. Copter is a fantastic smoother in this deck that lets us attack from a different dimension with flying, but was also unplayable with Push running rampant.

Gone too are Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and the third Sea Gate Wreckage, those lands replaced by Scavenger Grounds. Grounds does give us incidental graveyard hate for Storm and friends in game 1, but more importantly lets us slam Eternal Scourges guilt-free into counterspells and other 3/3s alike, knowing we can rebuy them all later. The addition greatly improves our midrange matchups pre-board, a crucial adjustment now that they've adapted to fight our cousin, Eldrazi Tron. Sea Gate is a great mana sink in the late-game, but if we're adding Grounds, I'm comfortable cutting one. Between the six manlands, 2 Grounds, and 2 Wreckage, I think we've got plenty to do with our mana---especially since Grounds also lets us re-cast deceased Scourges. As for Urborg, I liked the land most of the time, but it proved a bit unreliable at one copy. We're back to running Copter now, giving us another use for those uncastable Dismembers in the late-game and making Urborg more superfluous.

The sideboard also gets an update. Excited as I was for Sorcerous Spyglass in this deck, things just didn't work out; most Pithing Needle matchups didn't require a Chalice on 1 anyway, and would often have me board out the Guides. Needle truly shines as a reactive answer to manlands and planeswalkers, and as a proactive answer to combo pieces and Cranial Plating. Its cheaper cost is vastly preferable to Spyglass's information in these cases. Grafdigger's Cage and All is Dust are concessions to value Company decks, the latter also helping against anyone going wide who can beat a few Spatial Contortions (i.e. Humans). Gut Shot still an auto-include because sometimes your opponent's at 1 life and you draw it.

Rock: Strip, Strip, Strip; Now, Kill This!

Rock is a spell-based midrange archetype that uses cheap, proactive disruption to pave the way for its powerful threats. Thresh is synonymous with Legacy as rock is with Modern: no matter how the format shifts, many players will always associate the format with discard spell into Tarmogoyf. Historically, gatekeepers Jund and Abzan have held the keys to Club Rock; Death's Shadow, though, with its decent big mana matchups, changed that by diversifying the archetype.

The low curve inherent to Shadow decks is what drew me to rock for the first time, and lately I've been learning to love targeted discard with the little guy's help in Tarmogoyf colors.

Delirium Shadow, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Street Wraith

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

3 Fatal Push
1 Tarfire
2 Abrupt Decay
1 Terminate
1 Dismember
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Temur Battle Rage

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Ranger of Eos
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Kozilek's Return
2 Collective Brutality
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Lingering Souls
1 Godless Shrine

The natural evolution of Death's Shadow Jund, Delirium Shadow preserves that deck's Traverse the Ulvenwald-centered core while splashing blue or white for Stubborn Denial or Lingering Souls, respectively---and often both.

Strengths & Weaknesses

After a period of metagame consolidation around Eldrazi Tron, Grixis Shadow, and Storm, Modern is fanning out again, and at a massive scale. Narrow hosers like Rest in Peace lose value in these scenarios, as evidenced by the success of graveyard-independant decks such as Humans. Modern today is a far cry from the Modern of two months ago, when everyone and their moms brought a box full of Nihil Spellbomb to each event. Thus, the stage is set for Delirium to again usurp Grixis and other delve-based versions as top Shadow deck.

By many measures, Delirium is a better deck; it's certainly more proactive and consistent, which helps immensely in an open metagame.Ā Another thing Delirium has going for it: its flexibility. The deck can be built any which way; foregoing a splash or Temur Battle Rage, dipping into more exotic card types, and splitting up the planeswalker suite are all options for potential pilots. As with Counter-Cat, plenty of colors yield plenty of options.

As mentioned, Delirium is softer to graveyard hate and to Fatal Push than Delve Shadow, although both of those things are on the downswing. It also struggles with Shadow's traditional weaknesses: go-wide aggro decks, like Humans and Affinity, and prison strategies featuring pertinent hosers like Blood Moon or Chalice of the Void. Jeskai's recent success is no accident, either; that deck has more removal spells than Shadow has threats, not to mention enough burn to close out the game outside of combat. (For what it's worth, Goyf is as good as ever against Jeskai.)

What's New

I've only messed around with this deck for a month or so, and still have a ton to learn. But a few of my choices might seem a bit wacky. First, I like a Tarfire for the upside with Goyf. Damage-based removal is great in a format that's mostly shifted towards Fatal Push, as it's got more targets; Tireless Tracker, Devoted Druid, and Goblin Rabblemaster all die to the instant. I added Tarfire over the third Denial to hedge against go-wide aggro.

Terminate also shares its spots with Dismember. The Phyrexian instant generates blowouts in this deck since it can act as a double-Mutagenic Growth at any time for our Shadows. It also gives us a big edge against other Shadow decks, especially those with delve threats, and Eldrazi.

Lastly, I'm firmly in the Temur Battle Rage camp with this deck. Adding a combo dimension for such a minimal investment allows us to make really stupid attacks even when we don't have the Rage and still force odd blocks. I'm guessing that's the reason some omit it, too; opponents might put us on Rage regardless. But I've been in plenty of situations where the one card I can draw to bail me out of a given situation is Temur Battle Rage, and for that reason, I love packing it. Rage also has the additional benefit of lightening the load on our sideboard and flex spots, since it gives us a compact way to beat cards we otherwise shouldn't, like Lingering Souls or Mirran Crusader. Tarfire and Dismember both improve the card, too, by growing our threats extra stages for double strike.

Thanks Ungiven

So those are the three decks I'm most thankful for this season. Hopefully everyone has a good holiday. And as we inch closer to the new year, remember this lesson from ol' me: always play what you love!

Insider: How Masters Sets Changed My Speculation Strategy

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Welcome back, readers!

Today's article was inspired by the crashing prices of most of the Iconic Masters chase cards. Wizards has definitely increased not only the print run but also the frequency of theseĀ Masters sets. If we look at the 12-month period from March, 2017 to March, 2018, there are three different Masters sets being released (Modern Masters 2017, Iconic Masters, and Masters 25).

To be fair to Wizards, these sets tend to be a home run. They don't require a lot of design effort (as they are all reprinted cards); they won't impact the Standard format; and WotC always makes sure there are a few chase cards in the set that encourage people to crack packs in hopes of winning the lottery.

Why is this important? When a company introduces a new product that excites consumers, they are more likely to purchase it. However, that excitement comes with diminishing returns. You can only repackage something so many times before consumers become bored with it. Without creating new, original products you will often see companies just keep trying to repackage the old and get a quick revenue boost before they have to move onto the next thing. That's how you end up with this:

It's literally just cans of existing flavors of Mountain Dew (Code Red, White Out, and Voltage) that are repackaged together. I use this example because I fear PepsiCo is the poster boy for this mentality (but don't get me wrong, I love my Mountain Dew White Out). Every year we get some new "game fuel" Mountain Dew flavors that cause a buzz for a couple months (typically tied with the latest Call of Duty game) and then these flavors die off.

The Masters Cash Cow

I bring this up because it honestly sounds a lot like what Wizards is doing with these Masters sets now.

Back when WoTC first introduced Modern Masters (the first of the series), the print run was extremely small. I remember most of the LGSs around me only got eight boxes or less, which was two cases. There was concern back then (I know I brought it up) of a Chronicles 2.0Ā fiasco; luckily, the print run was small enough that most of the staples bounced back in value. Even the cheaper Commander stuff that didn't fully bounce back made enough newer Commander players happy that it wasn't a big deal.

Fast-forward to today. I know just one LGS in town got 64 boxes of Iconic Masters, which implies the print run was likely 5-10 times larger than the original Modern Masters set. If all 64 boxes were opened (they haven't been, but bear with me), that equals 1536 packs. Assuming about three mythics per box, and discounting foils, that means around 1344 rares and 192 mythics added to the local supply. The set itself has 53 rares and 15 mythics. So if we assume an equal number of each is pulled, that's roughly 25 of every rare in the set and almost 13 of every mythic.

That is a whole lot of new cards added to fill local demand—in fact, it likely exceeds the actual local demand by a significant amount. After all, do you think every store has eight players trying to get a full playset of Horizon Canopy's? What about Glimpse the Unthinkable, a card that used to be $30-$35 and now can be purchased for $8? That's a drop of almost 80%.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Glimpse the Unthinkable

Now, I accept that Glimpse is easily one of the worst offenders. It was an older card whose last printing was 12 years ago, and it's typically found only in the realm of kitchen-table decks—but it's not alone. Looking at the prices of Iconic Masters cards we are seeing a huge drop in price. Looking over the list of the rares and mythics, only 15 of 68 have a median value that exceeds the pack MSRP.

If we look at the actual market value (what they are actually selling for), that number drops to 12. This is fantastic news for casuals and players who want cards cheap so they can play whatever deck they want, but for anyone on the finance/speculation/business side it's concerning.

I know there's always talk that what the stores lose in value they regain by buying up cheap copies of cards that will eventually rebound. But the question has to be asked: why are people so sure they will rebound? If WotC continues to spit out Masters sets at a rate of three-plus in a 12-month timespan, it's only a matter of time before we start seeing previous Masters cards get reprinted yet again (looking at you Cryptic Command. Repeated reprints will suppress any hope of a price rebound.

I don't want to be all doom-and-gloom on you because there is still definitely hope. However, the point of writing all this so far is to highlight that the assumption that "prices will rebound" may need to be re-evaluated. WotC has shown that they are loving this Masters cash cow they've got, and they are going to keep whacking at that piƱata until no more candy comes out.

Adapting to the New Environment

So how do we as speculators/stores/investors protect ourselves? WotC is a single business entity and they are going to do what is best for them, even if it harms those of us in the above groups. They are beholden to their investors who want profit and growth, not us. However, knowing that, we can change our strategy and how we "weight" the risk of buying/speculating on cards.

Pre-Masters sets, it actually wasn't terribly hard to speculate on Magic cards. It was pretty logical that cards with a certain block- or set-specific mechanic (e.g. infect), or which referenced specific characters from a block (e.g. Inquisition of Kozilek), were unlikely to be reprinted unless we returned to the block or set they originally referenced.

Returning planes were typically spoiled far enough in advance that one could out copies of any cards that might get reprinted before taking a huge financial hit. For example, when they announced the set name, "Battle for Zendikar," I unloaded all my extra Inquisitions. As Kozilek was a character from that plane, I knew there was an increased risk in it getting reprinted. (This didn't actually happen, but I still felt it was unwise to risk it.)

And that is the gist of my article in a nutshell. The risk of reprint went up because some of the factors that would deter a reprint went away. I have since changed my investment strategy from hold to sell.

Reassessing Risk Factors

The challenge with these Masters sets is that they buck those two specific "reprint factors." WotC has shown that they'll put a few cards with a specific mechanic in a Masters set without worrying about it being a main mechanic of the set. For example, the first Modern Masters set had only four cards with persist (two at rare and two at uncommon).

On the other hand, with Conspiracy 2: Take the Crown, WotC was willing to put in Inquisition of Kozilek despite the fact that Kozilek had no part in the narrative of the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inquisition of Kozilek

So, I personally have had to reduce the weight I assign to both of these reprint factors when considering whether to speculate on a card. We can no longer use printability in Standard or a character's relevance to the story as arguments to justify speculation—the weight assigned to those factors has shifted.

"Going Deep" and Long-Term Specs

There was a time when it wasn't unreasonable to "go deep" on a speculation target because, if it hit, you could make very solid profits. I remember reading on the forums about people who had 100, 200, or even 300+ copies of a single card they were speculating on, and that wasn't an unreasonable strategy. Basically, if you dodged a reprint long enough (and you made at least a semi-decent pick) you would likely make some profit.

With the increased print run and frequency of Masters sets, I would argue this is no longer a safe or effective strategy. As one of my favorite quotes from the movie Fight Club says,

ā€œOn a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.ā€

In my opinion, the single-card speculative strategy is too risky now. It's far safer to diversify your speculation targets and avoid "going deep" on any one, lest you lose the reprint lottery and end up with massive losses.

For similar reasons, it's also no longer wise to speculate on cards you would need to hold for two-plus years to see any true gains. After all, WotC could have six-plus Masters sets out in that time frame, and the likelihood of a reprint increases with each set your card isn't included in.

Reserved List/Old School Buyouts

Finally, I want to discuss the Old School and Reserved List buyouts that have increased in frequency these past last few months. I don't doubt that this is partially fueled by people taking solace in the Reserved List and assuming that the 93-94 format will stick.

Regarding the former, I don't doubt WotC will keep their promise (at least for the foreseeable future). However, I will point out that with some of the flip cards in Ixalan they are showing willingness to creep closer to the line by making similar cards. It's not unfathomable that they might eventually make one that's better than a Reserved List option and end up tanking its value.

As for the 93-94 format, I didn't forget the Tiny Leaders or Frontier crazes that led to some massive gains in cards before petering out. I will admit I haven't played the format—but I question how long it will remain true before pricing itself out, and people realize that the $0.22 Chronicles Erhnam Djinn looks close enough to the $150 Arabian Nights version that the "bling" difference isn't worth it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Erhnam Djinn

If people start to unload copies, we may find the price has been inflated,Ā especially for a format that isn't even Wizards-sanctioned. I accept that there is definitely some collectiblility behind having the originals, but is that worth 68,181%?

Conclusion

So again, I don't want to discourage people from speculating on the game, and I'm 100% confident there's still plenty of opportunity to make money doing so. However, I would be remiss in my duties for a site dedicated to MTG finance not to raise concerns when I see warning signs. I want to encourage people to accept that some of the old speculation methodologies should be reviewed, and likely discarded, in order to reduce one's risk. So take a smart and flexible approach to your investment strategy, and you should be fine.

Daily Stock Watch: Necropolis Regent

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Today, I'll be featuring a card that I think will benefit from the arrival of more copies of Bloodline Keeper in From the Vault: Transform. From the makers of "Twilight", I present to you..

There was an error retrieving a chart for Necropolis Regent

This mythic from Return to Ravnica never found its bearings while it was in Standard, and spent most of her time sitting in bulk rare bins. Cards with its ability should somehow be popular to casual players in Commander, but it never went above the $2 threshold until recently when From the Vault: Transform was spoiled, and its name popped up in the Explorers of Ixalan special set. It went to as high as $5.20 back in September, and it's still floating around the $4-$5 range as of writing.

So why is it suddenly gaining some steam? Check out this Edgar Markov Commander deck that won a "Clash of Commanders" event in Libourne, France:

Edgar Markov

Commander

Creatures

1 Blood Artist
1 Blood Seeker
1 Bloodcrazed Neonate
1 Bloodghast
1 Bloodthrone Vampire
1 Bold Impaler
1 Brutal Hordechief
1 Carrier Thrall
1 Child of Night
1 Drana, Liberator of Malakir
1 Falkenrath Aristocrat
1 Falkenrath Gorger
1 Gifted Aetherborn
1 Guul Draz Vampire
1 Heir of Falkenrath
1 Hellrider
1 Indulgent Aristocrat
1 Insolent Neonate
1 Kalastria Highborn
1 Malakir Bloodwitch
1 Mirror Entity
1 Olivia's Bloodsworn
1 Olivia, Mobilized for War
1 Pulse Tracker
1 Quag Vampires
1 Ruthless Cullblade
1 Shadow Alley Denizen
1 Stromkirk Captain
1 Stromkirk Condemned
1 Stromkirk Noble
1 Vampire Aristocrat
1 Vampire Cutthroat
1 Vampire Hexmage
1 Vampire Interloper
1 Vampire Lacerator
1 Vampire Nighthawk
1 Viscera Seer

Instants and Sorceries

1 Anguished Unmaking
1 Balance
1 Dark Ritual
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Fatal Push
1 Fiery Confluence
1 Incinerate
1 Lightning Bolt
1 Lightning Helix
1 Lightning Strike
1 Nameless Inversion
1 Path to Exile
1 Price of Progress
1 Searing Spear
1 Swords to Plowshares
1 Terminate
1 Vampiric Fury
1 Vindicate
1 Zealous Persecution

Other Spells

1 Goblin Bombardment
1 Shared Animosity
1 Skullclamp
1 Smuggler's Copter

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Command Tower
1 Dragonskull Summit
1 Flooded Strand
1 Godless Shrine
1 Marsh Flats
9 Mountain
1 Path of Ancestry
1 Plains
1 Plateau
1 Polluted Delta
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Scrubland
10 Swamp
1 Verdant Catacombs
1 Windswept Heath
1 Wooded Foothills

Wait.. Where's the Necropolis Regent?

That's exactly what I'm trying to say in this post. This card isn't part of the only logical deck in Commander where it could fit, and from a personal perspective, I don't see a need to squeeze it in there. Besides the fact that it's slow, you could get better impact from lower casting cards such as Drana, Liberator of Malakir and Bloodline Keeper without having to go through the tedious process of waiting for a sixth land to cast it. In case you noticed, the end of the curve for this deck is five mana, which is occupied by Malakir Bloodwitch. It's basically a good game by the time it hits the battlefield in a match where you only need to deal twenty damage to win. Necropolis Regent simply doesn't belong with its kind in this case.

With all this in mind, we could consider a possible buyout for the price spike. However, I checked online stores and there's no sign that something like this happened. People had funky ideas, like pairing this with Walking Ballista to deal triple damage on a turn, but this could easily be trumped by better two-card combos. Perhaps, the casual demand from those who wanted to have it in their Commander decks was enough to keep its price above the $2-line where it was floating around for years.

Edgar Markov decks in Commander have been winning tournaments left and right. It's so strong that you'd almost always see at least two of it in the top eight of Commander leagues. History dictates that troublesome commanders should be banned to create a healthy field for players again; otherwise, people will just build the same deck and hope they get better draws than their opponents. The two cards above are the primary heirs to the vampiric throne. In the case that Edgar Markov gets the axe, people who've already built a vampire tribal EDH will try the same concept with a different commander, and I'm expecting that Drana or Olivia will get some consideration in case that happens. The deck should be slower by then, and that's the time that Necropolis Regent would fit in just fine.

At the moment, you could find copies of Necropolis Regent (both the Return to Ravnica and Explorers of Ixalan versions) from anywhere between $3-$6 in online stores such as TCGPlayer, Starcity Games, Channel Fireball, and Card Kingdom. I'd like to pick up copies of the card at $2 each, but I'm a seller/trader if people are willing to pick it up right now for $6. This is one of those cards that are a bit tricky to grade but since it's a mythic, there might be some upside in keeping a few copies for now. Just stay away from the foils if that's possible.

And that’s it for the Thursday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we talk about a new card that should be on the go, or worth speculating on. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Set Review – From the Vault: Transform

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From the Vault products haven't been particularly popular to finance junkies, because the foiling process for FTV releases is not popular among foil collectors. However, people are excited about From the Vaults: Transform because there are actually some very good cards in it, including new art for two fairly popular flip cards.

Let's go over the contents of From the Vault: Transform and analyze what makes it so appealing.

THE PLANESWALKERS FROM MAGIC ORIGINS

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy / Jace, Telepath Unbound

I talked about Jace, Vryn's Prodigy in this edition of the Daily Stock Watch, and this should be the banner card of the set. I wish that there was new art for this card, though.

Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh / Chandra, Roaring Flame

Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh isn't actually that popular prior to this reprint, so I don't think we'll see any positive movement here.

Liliana, Heretical Healer / Liliana, Defiant Necromancer

Liliana, Heretical Healer had her time in the spotlight when it was in Standard. The card is still popular in Commander, so she should be a fine pick up from this set.

Kytheon, Hero of Akros / Gideon, Battle-Forged

Kytheon, Hero of Akros used to be one of the beloved generals in Duel Commander. Grabbing a few copies of it isn't really a bad idea, all the more now that it's cheaper after the FTV release.

Nissa, Vastwood Seer / Nissa, Sage Animist

Nissa, Vastwood Seer was also a Standard staple back in the day, but that hasn't carried over into any older formats. Creatures that help you get lands are quite useful in Commander, so I think that there might be some upside in getting copies now.

THE CASUAL FAVORITES

Bloodline Keeper / Lord of Lineage

This creature is no lord, but it has maintained a high price tag because Vampires are popular in Commander – and it does have lord-like abilities. I'm not a fan of this card or its financial prospects, so I'd only recommend that you get copies now if you need them.

Archangel Avacyn / Avacyn, the Purifier

This card was also a Standard superstar last season. It wasn't able to maintain its price tag once it rotated out, but it's still one of the more popular Angels because of its art and Commander appeal. I don't mind picking up copies of this at its current price point.

Garruk Relentless / Garruk, the Veil-Cursed and Arlinn Kord / Arlinn, Embraced by the Moon

Planeswalkers will always have a special appeal to collectors, cube owners, and Commander players. These walkers are relatively cheap prior to this printing, so expect their prices to get even lower. Grab copies only if you need them.

THE FRINGE PLAYERS

Gisela, the Broken Blade + Bruna, the Fading Light = Brisela, Voice of Nightmares

Gisela, the Broken Blade isn't really that good in older formats, but Bruna, the Fading Light actually is. If shiny, melding Angels are your thing, grab a copy of each. Otherwise, stay away from them.

Elbrus, the Binding Blade / Withengar Unbound

I don't recall seeing this card in action, either in Standard or after its rotation. The flip side of the equipment is one nasty Demon for sure – but I wouldn't pay seven mana for an equipment that doesn't do anything special to your creature.

Arguel's Blood Fast / Temple of Aclazotz

Arguel's Blood Fast is still in Standard, and I'm sure that a lot of players are wishing that this slot was given to Search for Azcanta instead. I'm not really sold on this card, but the price is quite low for a foil. Grab a few copies if you can find a good price.

OLD RELIABLES WITH NEW ART

Delver of Secrets / Insectile Aberration

People fell out of love with Delver of Secrets because of Death's Shadow in Modern, but it is still well-loved in Legacy. Delver foils have sold for quite a fortune, and this new art is pretty badass. Grab your copies now while they're most easily available!

Huntmaster of the Fells / Ravager of the Fells

Huntmaster of the Fells still has some cameos in Modern Jund decks from time to time, so this reprint would do it more good than bad, in my opinion. I really love the new art of its human form, so I don't mind buying a playset of this card. I'm not counting out the possibility of seeing this card in Standard again someday.

THE VERDICT

From the Vault: Transform is definitely one of the better FTVs that Wizards has released, but I think that this is a fine pickup only if you can get it anywhere the original MSRP of $34.99. Sellers online are taking advantage of the hype, but remember that there are only a few key cards – JVP, Delver and Huntmaster – that most buyers are after. These three should be worth around $30, and I don't think that the other dozen cards could justify the $75 to $95 price tag that the whole set is currently being sold for. Let go of them now if you got it for its original price, or just buy the singles that you actually need.

Daily Stock Watch: Glorybringer

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! In the wake of the recently concluded GP Portland, where 1,699 players slugged it out for the top prize, Magic's 2013 and 2014 World Champion Shahar Shenhar won his fourth Grand Prix title using a Temur Energy deck. I'll be featuring one of the key cards from that deck on today's segment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Glorybringer

Temur Energy by Shahar Shenhar

Creatures

4 Bristling Hydra
3 Glorybringer
4 Longtusk Cub
4 Rogue Refiner
4 Servant of the Conduit
3 Whirler Virtuoso

Instants and Sorceries

2 Abrade
4 Attune with Aether
1 Commit / Memory
2 Confiscation Coup
4 Harnessed Lightning
1 Magma Spray

Other Spells

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Lands

4 Aether Hub
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Forest
1 Island
2 Mountain
3 Rootbound Crag
1 Sheltered Thicket
3 Spirebluff Canal

Sideboard

2 Abrade
1 Aethersphere Harvester
1 Chandra's Defeat
1 Confiscation Coup
1 Lifecrafter's Bestiary
1 Magma Spray
2 Negate
1 Nissa, Steward of Elements
1 Slice in Twain
1 Supreme Will
1 Torrential Gearhulk
2 Vizier of Many Faces

In every Standard set, it seems that dragons always find a way to make it to top tier decks. They are big, nasty, firebreathing creatures that hover up in the skies over elves, kithkins, merfolks, and humans. They have always been the weapon of choice by aggro, midrange and control mages alike. It is arguable that angels are their main antagonists in the battlefield (uhhh, Baneslayer Angel), but this Standard season has been all about Glorybringer and its energy friends, despite of that temporary resurgence from Angel of Invention and her graveyard-loving peers.

Dragon Lords of past Standard seasons

Based on my Utility Checker, Glorybringer has been the most popular, usage-wise, among all these dragon superstars over the last fifteen years (Thunderbreak Regent is a distant second, in case you're wondering). Players have used an average of 2.8 copies in 7.6% of winning decks, and you could expect this number to rise after seventeen copies made it to the top 8 of GP Portland.

We could compare Glorybringer's case with Aether Hub, in a sense that they are both very popular, but their prices haven't gone up the entire time. Aether Hub is an uncommon, and Kaladesh was a very popular set because of the Inventions, so it makes sense that there is no shortage of supply for the card. However, Glorybringer is a rare card from a fairly good set in Amonkhet, so it would make sense if it gets occasional spikes after doing well in tournaments. It has been in the $5-$6 range since June and big online stores such as Star City Games, Channel Fireball, and Card Kingdom, are always filled to the brim with stocks of it.

I'm not sure if I'm overrating the card, or there are just too many copies of it out there. Personally, I think that there's still lots of potential for this card to at least go up in value, albeit $10 is the highest that I think it could go. My logic behind this is that something from Rivals of Ixalan could make it more powerful, or some component of energy decks could get banned if it continues to dominate in the next two months. In the case that a banning in Standard occurs, this card could become a real powerhouse when decks that are under the radar would start showing up, or Patrick Chapin comes up with some new brew that has Glorybinger as its centerpiece.

Right now, you could find normal copies of Glorybringer from anywhere between $5.34 and $6.49 from the same stores I mentioned earlier, while foil AMK copies are in the $7-$10 range. The Magic Gameday foil version is sold for $12, and it's worth noting that SCG is out of stock, while the other stores have minimal copies left. I recommend that you get normal copies for $4 if that's possible, and get the Gameday copies for $8. I think that this is a fine gamble with very little room for losses. People usually start disposing cards during the holidays, and card prices should start moving again once the new year enters. That should be the room to move your spare copies as soon as it's profitable to do so.

And that’s it for the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we feature a new card that might be on the rise, or should be moved. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Deck of the Week: Mardu Reveler

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Good day, Nexites, and welcome to a new edition of Deck of the Week. In my relentless pursuit for the "next big thing" in Modern, I found another gem that we could try, and maybe polish, for the coming days. Without further ado, let's take a look at this undefeated deck from one of MTGO's Competitive Modern Leagues.

Mardu Reveler, by Selfeisek (5-0, Competitive Modern League)

Creatures

4 Bedlam Reveler
2 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Young Pyromancer

Enchantments

1 Blood Moon

Instants

1 Burst Lightning
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
2 Terminate

Sorceries

1 Dreadbore
4 Faithless Looting
2 Forked Bolt
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Lingering Souls
3 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Marsh Flats
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Swamp
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
1 Dragon's Claw
2 Fatal Push
1 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Pithing Needle
1 Shattering Spree
2 Wear // Tear

Modern is arguably in its finest state since the format started. There is no superior deck, and there are multiple ones that you could sleeve up to a tournament and help you go all the way. For the third week in a row, I was able to find an innovative take on an existing archetype that might be able to "crack" the stalemate in the format.

This Mardu deck looks more like a Burn deck that's supported by some of the best black and white cards in Modern right now. Discard spells such as Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek are key components of any deck that's running black, because it keeps you out of trouble against combo decks such as Counters Company and Gifts Storm. Lightning Helix nullifies the life loss from the shocklands, fetches, and Thoughtseize, while helping you get ahead against aggro decks. Lingering Souls is very good in this deck because it gives you chump-blockers when you're on the defense and a resilient threat with evasion in control or midrange matchups.

The red cards in the deck are all gasoline. Young Pyromancer is at the center of attack, with 30 instant and sorcery spells in the deck that all act as enablers for its ability. Bedlam Reveler is the mid-game changer, as it allows you to draw three cards as soon as it hits the battlefield (assuming you've spent most of your spells in the earlier turns). Faithless Looting gives you the option to filter your hand if it gets filled with lands, or if you need to fill the graveyard with more cards to help Bedlam Reveler come to play earlier. There's also a singleton Blood Moon that could shut down a lot of decks when it hits play. The rest of the red spells all deal direct damage to the opponent.

In a format where getting ahead is crucial, but coming back from the depths of death is more important, this deck is in a good position to contend with higher-tier decks such as Grixis Death's Shadow and Humans. There are some pieces that I'd love to alter in the deck, but for now I'll leave it as it is and give it a test drive. If you have some ideas of what we could do to improve it, just let us know in the comments section below.

So that’s it for this edition of Deck of the Week. Stay posted for our next feature next week. Until then, happy shuffling and thanks for reading!

Insider: MTGO Market Report for November 22nd, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questionsĀ via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of November 20, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although bothĀ Aether RevoltĀ (AER) andĀ KaladeshĀ (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard. This will be the last week that I'll track prices for Magic Origins (ORI) and Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) as both of these sets will no longer be available for redemption after November 22.

With Iconic Masters (IMA) hitting MTGO, prices have taken a dive almost across the board. A premium priced draft set has got the MTGO player base selling its cards in order to fund the next draft league entry fee.

I've taken a few spins through the IMA leagues myself, and I have to say I am impressed with the draft format. It feels like it has much better balance than Modern Masters 2017 (MM3). That set had a stronger multi-colour themed, which pushed drafting mana fixing and the most powerful gold cards. The bounce lands that show up in IMA are historically powerful in limited formats, but with multi-coloured cards being few and far between, the utility of the bounce lands is diminished. They are still good but not format defining; they are much closer in power level to the other commons in IMA, which leads to a much more interesting set to draft. It looks like IMA draft will not be converging on the best draft archetype as quickly as MM3 did.

Standard

The format looks like it has reached an equilibrium where Energy variants and Ramanup Red form the top tier and various other archetypes are looking to the scraps. Tinkering is happening around the edges, but the format looks like it has been well explored at this point. This is not a great macro perspective to be a Standard speculator, since a fluctuating metagame translates into volatility in card prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chart a Course

If you are really keen to speculate on Standard, then I would recommend long-term specs on cards that are priced close to junk. One could also make a long-term bet on uncommons from Kitesail Freebooter and Chart a Course, both of which have already seen application in Modern and both of which can be bought for 0.01 tix or less.

Modern

At this point, we are closer to being in a selling window than we are in a buying window for Modern cards. Prices on many Modern staples have ticked higher in recent weeks, and it wouldn't take much for cards like Mox Opal and Karn Liberated to hit a one-year high. Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan will be held in Spain the first week of February 2018, so January will be a prime time to be selling to players as they build and test decks on MTGO.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Opal

Of course looking at buying cards from IMA is correct, and I'll go into detail on one card I have already been buying in the Trade of the Week right now:

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check outĀ the portfolio.

Iconic Masters (IMA) has reprinted a number of Modern staples and supply will continue to enter the market as IMA draft leagues continue. Nevertheless, the market often presents opportunity in the early going of a set release as it grapples with how to price the reprints.

Here's a price graph from Goatbots covering the price of the Coldsnap (CSP) version of Mishra's Bauble. As you can see, the low was a little over 3 tix, but the price peak of over 30 tix suggests that this uncommon must be in low supply on MTGO. The price peak coincided with the breakout of the Death's Shadow deck in Modern earlier this year. It also shows up in Lantern Control decks as a way to get the hand size down to turn on Ensnaring Bridge.

When I checked in on how IMA reprints were being priced over the weekend, Mishra's Bauble was available at around 3 tix, with Goatbots selling some copies below 3 tix and most other bots selling in the 3.0- to 3.2-tix range. Buying this card at or below the price low from the last two years seemed like a low-risk proposition, and I jumped on the opportunity.

When it comes to timing speculative purchases, it's correct to be a buyer when cards are being opened in draft. Drafters are keen to sell their cards in order to fund their next draft entry fee, and this means it pays to be a buyer. For regular sets, the best buying window is usually in the last few weeks of the draft format. But for sets like IMA, the drafting window is only three weeks long. To compound the issue of timing your buys, Masters sets are priced at a premium, so repeat drafting slows down rapidly as players run out of tix. This means that the best buying window can coincide with the first weekend of release.

Staple uncommons seem to follow this idea quite well. Check out the charts from Goatbots for Inquisition of Kozilek from Modern Masters 2017 (MM3), Dismember from Modern Masters 2015 (MM2). Inquisition of Kozilek was about 1 tix while it was being opened, but subsequently has been in the 1.5 to 2.5 tix range.

Dismember was available for less than 1 tix while it was being drafted in MM2, but it's price range a year later was 2 to 4 tix, while more recently it's been in the 3- to 5-tix range.

Mishra's Bauble compares well to both of these cards in that it is an uncommon from a third set and thus more lightly printed than a fall set uncommon. Like Dismember in MM2 and Inquisition of Kozilek in MM3, Mishra's Bauble is being reprinted on MTGO for the first time here. Thus, I think a return to the 4- to 8-tix range is very possible in the next six months, with a 5- to 10-tix range in the longer term also very likely.

Targeting staple uncommons early in the draft window for Masters sets looks like a great strategy going forward. Keep this in mind for the release of Masters 25 in March 2018.

And for anyone who likes to argue that MTGO players are rational and always trying to maximize their value, I offer proof by contradiction in the recent price of the CSP version of Mishra's Bauble. The week prior to the release of IMA, the price of this card was still rising, peaking at just under 19 tix. This is clear evidence of the short-term thinking prevalent in MTGO users. Players want to play their deck, and you can't play your deck without the cards you need, and this is just fine. What they are giving up in monetary value, they are getting back in their own utility. Everyone has to decide on what is worthwhile for themselves, but as long as MTGO players are not ruthless EV calculators, there will be room forĀ  savvy players to stretch their playing budget and for speculators to make a few tix.

 

Daily Stock Watch: Mishra’s Bauble

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Aloha, readers and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I know that we've already covered cards from Iconic Masters last week, but I just need to talk about a few more cards from that set in the coming days if you don't mind. Today, I'll be featuring a card that I have high hopes for, especially with the influx of supply that will enter the market.

Without further ado, I bring you!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

Yes, let's talk about this uncommon from Coldsnap that was sitting at $57 per piece last April. It will still be an uncommon in IMA, but the price has gone down drastically, despite of its high usage rate in Modern nowadays. I believe that some people are thinking that the supply will be enough to bring the price down, but I honestly think that its current price tag is way too low.

Before I provide you with more statistics, take a look at this 5C Death's Shadow Deck:

5C Deaths Shadow

Creatures

1 Architects of Will
4 Death's Shadow
1 Ranger of Eos
4 Street Wraith
4 Tarmogoyf

Instants and Sorceries

2 Abrupt Decay
4 Fatal Push
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Kolaghan's Command
3 Temur Battle Rage
4 Thoughtseize
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Other Spells

2 Liliana of the Veil
4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Godless Shrine
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Polluted Delta
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Ancient Grudge
2 Collective Brutality
1 Hazoret the Fervent
2 Kozilek's Return
3 Lingering Souls
2 Nihil Spellbomb
3 Stubborn Denial
1 Temur Battle Rage

There are four copies of Mishra's Bauble in that deck for two reasons -- one, it allows the players to look at the opponent's hand and see if there is anything that needs to be discarded immediately via Thoughtseize/Inquisition of Kozilek; and two, getting the Bauble to the graveyard helps in setting up the delirium mechanic which fuels Traverse the Ulvenwald. In case you're not aware, Grixis Death's Shadow has been the most popular archetype of them all, but people are suddenly realizing that it could go five colors for a more straightforward approach. This means that there's a high probability that Mishra's Bauble's price should be able to rebound as soon as supplies of IMA dry up.

Free Spells in Modern

Not all of these spells are really "free" to cast. The real costs of the pact have to be paid on the next turn, and it takes two life to cast the Phyrexian spells if you don't have the mana to pay for it's actual cost. The Bauble belongs in the company of the other artifacts that you'd usually find in an Affinity deck, and it's really not hard to find a home for these cards given their utility. Mishra's Bauble is a very strong card that's well positioned to put some mediocre decks into rarefied air once pros figure it out. Including it in the Death's Shadow deck is just the beginning; bear in mind that Lantern Control also uses it, and that some crazy development (think Second Sunrise) might happen if anything gets unbanned in Modern next February.

Using the Utility Checker, I found out that 6.4% of top performing decks this year have used an average of 3.6 copies of Mishra's Bauble in their lists. It hasn't made its way to Legacy yet, and I'm inclined to think that it's not a case of having not enough copies to play with that's causing it, but more of there are better cards that's suited to make the lists of Stacks or Affinity decks there. However, I still think that $6.99 is too low for this card. If you could get more copies for a lower price, that would be great. I'm expecting some positive movement within days of a complete buyout from online stores of the IMA copies.

At the moment, you can find Coldsnap copies of Mishra's Bauble from online stores such as Card Kingdom, Star City Games, Channel Fireball, and TCGPlayer for anywhere between $8.55-$11.99 for the normal ones, while the foil copies go for $33.99 up to $69.99 each. You could get the IMA version for as low as $4.50 from TCGPlayer, while Star City Games is out of stock and is expected to put them back up at $6.99 each. The foil version is in the $15-$26 price range. I'll be buying normal copies of this card for $5 and foil ones for $15 while supplies last.

And that’s it for the Tuesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we take a look at a new card. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Repositioning and Counterboarding: A Beginner’s Guide

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Nothing is harder to see than the obvious. This is the problem of teaching Magic to new players. Whether you humiliatingly miss an on-board win, or your "missing" keys are on the table right in front of you, it happens to everyone. It can even apply to knowledge. It is easy to forget how daunting your field is to newcomers. To you, a given step is so obvious that it doesn't bear mentioning, and you forget that isn't true for everyone. It may even be something that is unnecessary for you, but only because you know how to safely cut that corner. There are very important lessons about how to play the game that are so intuitive to experienced players we forget that it actually isn't obvious. It gets worse once you start delving deeply into theory.

I'm bringing this up because I realized I skipped something important. Last year, I covered the basics of sideboarding, and some advanced techniques. I thought I'd covered everything. I was wrong. There was another technique that is a strategy unto itself. It was just so obvious to me that I had no reason to think about it, much less write it out. Then, I was asked about my strategy for the Jeskai control mirror, where I just slam Geist of Saint Traft and ride him to victory. Some were confused; doesn't card advantage decide control mirrors? The exception was so intuitive to me I assumed everybody knew. I deliberately go all-in on being the aggressor.

I do this so that I don't have to fight over being the control deck. That is a fight I cannot reliably win because I rarely pack mirror-breakers. Crucible of Worlds in conjunction with Ghost Quarter, extra card draw, or unanswerable threats provide some advantage that wins the game unassisted in the control mirror---and are, quite frequently, poor everywhere else, so I don't play them. Instead, I become the beatdown, which my opponent is unprepared for, and just overwhelm them. Today's article is about effectively utilizing this repositioning and counterboarding strategy.

Non-Conventional Wisdom

The basics of sideboarding are well-established: take out bad cards, put in good cards. Nice, simple, and teachable. Exactly what makes a card "good" or "bad" can be easily explained in the matchup's context, yielding an easy system for new players to learn with. Then, experience teaches the nuances and alternatives derived from that basic structure.

Historically, sideboard strategy has simply extended this logic. Control versus control was about who was the better control deck. The first time I heard about this was during PT Philidelphia 2005 in relation to the Gifts Ungiven mirror. It was said that whoever played draw-go longest while still making land drops had the advantage and "should" win. I heard this reiterated for years regarding control mirrors (I recall some event where commentators discuss the merits of choosing to draw in the mirror, but I can't find the clip). On the opposite end, aggro mirrors were thought to depend on playing first.Ā This makes quite a bit of sense. If your and your opponent are situated to take a certain role, whoever executes it worse should lose.

The better control deck and/or control player was always assumed to be advantaged. But I'd heard a different message, and it worked for me.

Wisdom of the Ancients

If nothing else, this article series has served to dredge up important old articles. OneĀ article that spoke to me and developed my sideboarding was already old when I got serious about competitiveĀ Magic: Mike Flores's "Why Dave Price Goes Second." Take a minute to read this article before we continue. Flores was arguing that when decks are similar card advantage matters most. It doesn'tĀ have to be about two-for-ones, though that helps. The way that the true mirror matches play out, everything trades equally because all the cards are the same. Therefore, the player who drew second will win. Expanding the idea, any two similar decks will have some advantage in something, and you should focus on that thing primarily. You can gain the advantage just by playing fewer lands (drawing more action), having superior tempo, or having better mana sinks and the ability to wield them. The key is identifying which advantage lies with which player and plan accordingly.

When I read "Why Dave Price Goes Second," the fact that the deck on the draw was advantaged in the mono-red beatdown mirror floored me. The concept disagreed with everything I'd heard. To be fair, I wasn't sophisticated enough as a player to really get any of that, but one idea stuck: for the most part, when decks do similar things, card advantage winsĀ unless there's something inherently non-interactive about the matchup, as Flores explains at the end of the article. If that's the case, you should focus on that to the exclusion of all else. Over time, this principle has developed into my repositioning strategy.

The Reposition Sideboard

When I approach a mirror match, or a match against another deck operating on a like axis to mine, I start by determining which role my opponent is likely to take. This is pure "Who's the Beatdown?". If my opponent is a control deck and wants to sideboard to be more of a control deck,Ā and I don't/can't play cards to really break open that matchup, I will take the opposite role. In past UW control mirrors, I've cut a lot of slower permission and card advantage spells to play more Vendilion Clique and Geist of Saint Traft. What I'm doing is shifting position so I can dodge opponent's more powerful cards and play a game they weren't expecting. This is also useful if you believe your opponent is more skilled than you and will therefore win a long game.

A reposition is similar to transformative sideboards, but not as extreme. Rather than make a dramatic shift, you've altered your strategy based on your opponent's intended attack. Here's the principle illustrated:

I am simplifying this, but when two decks oppose each other, they tend to attack each other on one axis. Control vs. aggro being consistently about threats is one example. When you transform, you have pivoted to an entirely new axis; one utterly different from your initial gameplan. When you reposition, you're shifting out of the way of the incoming attack. It's not about dramatically changing your gameplan, but invalidating your opponent's strategy. It's picking the ground where you are ready and advantaged to fight on.

You neverĀ want to fight on your opponent's terms. They picked that ground for a reason; do you really want to be Lee at Gettysburg? It's much better to be the one deciding how the battle will unfold. In the earlier UW example, I wasn't going to win the prison/control game that my opponent anticipated, so I became more of a tempo deck. Long-game cards are meaningless against Geist. If you can't win the fight, win a different one first.

I should note that this isĀ not appropriate for all decks or matchups. You do need to plan ahead to make it possible, and even then, your main strategy may not allow it. Humans is going to be basically the same deck pre- and post-board no matter what you do, so why try there? Even if you dedicated considerable sideboard space to the idea, the manabase would still limit your options.

Repositioning in Action

Let's apply this theory to the original Jeskai example. Most guides will advise you to play more attrition cards and Negate. Taking that into account, remove slower permission spells, since you're not aiming for a long game, in favor of the full set of Geists and extra Dispels. That gives you the advantage in resolving and protecting Geist and winning the game before attrition starts to matter.

This is also where my UW Merfolk deck shone. It's game one plan was not dramatically different from mono-blue, we play fish and attack. Having the white allowed me to take a different tack post-board against creature decks. Merfolk is neither explosive nor very fast, but it is overwhelming. Eventually, you go bigger butĀ  you survive that long. This makes it vulnerable to fast aggro, especially Affinity, Elves, and Humans. Accepting this fact gave me the option to take a more controlling role. By running white I had hard removal that didn't cost life and the option for more, namely Sunlance and Condemn. This gave me the option to play a longer game, trade creatures, and gradually come out ahead. Had I stuck to the accepted plan of being the better aggro deck, I would have performed worse because I started out as the worse aggro deck.

For an older but much clearer example, think back to Ravnica/Time Spiral Standard. The default aggro deck of the day was Gruul Aggro. It had all the best (read: biggest) creatures at the low slots, including Tarmogoyf. It was hard for other decks to compete in the same space. I was running Boros Aggro and absolutely crushed crushed the Gruul decks that Regionals. My deck ran 20 creatures, 20 burn spells, and 20 lands, and I was using Boros Garrison to cheat on land. The typical Gruul deck was mostly creatures and ~22 lands. I had Inherent Card Advantage (go back to Dave Price), so I just embraced it. I traded every creature I played, burned all of their creatures, used Jotun Grunt to contain Tarmogoyf, and I won the attrition fight every time.

When it came time to sideboard, I fully embraced this control reposition strategy. My weak creatures came out for more burn and protection from red creatures and I had a pretty easy matchup. My opponents never saw it coming and weren't ready.

Exercise Discretion

Be careful with this strategy. You don't want to get too clever or dodge into a tree. It's very easy to try this and make either the wrong adjustment or have your opponent anticipate you and lay an ambush. It may not even go that far; they could just chose a different strategy than expected. ThenĀ you'reĀ the one out of position. Be careful and use it wisely.

Counterboarding

No, I don't mean adding more counterspells to your sideboard (necessarily). The other very common strategy that never gets spelled out is counterboarding. This is where you sideboard to directly answer your opponent's sideboard/overall strategy and advance your own. It's not just about having answers; it's about invalidating the intended strategy organically.

You see this often in control verses aggro matchups, though it's everywhere. Sweepers are very powerful against creature aggro, so you expect control decks to have a lot of them after-board. Sideboarding into Selfless Spirit or Heroic Intervention completely negates this plan. You anticipated your opponent's sideboarding strategy and shut it down. This is normal boarding. TheĀ counter designation applies to the Spirit, which actively advances your gameplan while also answering their strategy. Intervention, like Brave the Elements, is just an answer; Spirit actively wins the game. That's a true counterboard.Ā Counterboarding requires answers that proactively advance your core gameplan.

One of the best recent examples is the adoption of Ghirapur Aether Grid by Affinity. The card isn't very effective by itself, but as an answer to Stony Silence, it's phenomenal. In slower matchups, Affinity has the time to build up non-creature artifacts that are otherwise useless and just ping an opponent to death. Stony hurt, but you got around it with a card that is reasonable on its own.

For another example, look to Xathrid Necromancer out of theĀ Humans sideboard. It synergizes with the rest of the deck, and neutralizes otherwise deadly sweepers from control. Well, except for Anger of the Gods. Which is what Meddling Mage is for.

Ideally, every sideboard slot would work this way, but that isn't always possible. Sometimes you just need hosers or reactive answers instead of threats. Still, counterboarding is a powerful way to switch up your gameplan and gain a considerable edge. Just don't shoot yourself in the foot trying.

Keep Learning

So, that was my epiphany for the week. But I'm sure there are more "obvious" lessons out there that I haven't thought to discuss. Can you think of any? Let me know in the comments.

Insider: Examining Non-Meta Decks for Picks

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Hello, guys.

Two Standard weekends, both a PT and a GP, have concluded. As usual, some summary from my observations:

  • Every red deck has Chandra, Torch of Defiance.
  • Vraska, Relic Seeker and Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh are getting popular in Temur/Sultai variations as light splashes.
  • God-Pharaoh's Gift decks are not performing very well after the PT.
  • Plenty of new brews are emerging into the Standard format.

Overall the metagame has turned more toward midrange strategies, with more planeswalkers in 75s. Combo and control decks aren't doing very well, probably because they are not consistent enough and planeswalkers from a majority of decks are hard for white-blue decks to deal with.

I have found some interesting new decks from the last week. Let's go through them one by one.

Desert Red - Ben Stark Top 2 GP Atlanta 2017

My impression of Hall of Famer Ben Stark is that he always has some innovative ideas on improving existing decks and taking them to another level. Take this "Desert Red" for example: it's a mix of Ramunap Red and some big threats like Chandra and Glorybringer. From this list, we can see some interesting card selections – like Treasure Map and Scavenger Grounds. Scavenger Grounds is a card that can be included in any deck as a hate card against graveyard strategies:

This land is very strong against decks like God-Pharaoh's Gift, as it stops every graveyard effects at instant speed. The card is especially good when played in a deck full of Deserts, like Ramunap Red. However, this card reached its peak last weekend, and probably won't go up again anytime soon. You guys should have sold them by now, and be sure to avoid buying any copies of these for investment purposes moving forward. If they ever drop below 1 ticket, that is when you guys should pick them up again.

Another card that caught my eye from Ben's list is Glorybringer. Currently, this dragon is only played in Temur Energy, so if this version of red aggro deck gets more popular, Glorybringer might increase to 4 tickets or more. There's another deck that plays this hasty dragon that I'll talk about later in this article, so the chances that this card will go up in price is pretty high in my opinion.

Green-White Aggro

This is an aggro deck with a bunch of cheap cards that nobody was really paying attention to before this deck broke onto the scene. In some ways, the hype regarding this deck has already come and gone. MTGO singles fluctuate so fast that sometimes we literally need to be in front of our PC to gain profit from the spikes. If you see similar cases in the future and when a deck comes and goes extremely quickly, make sure you guys don't miss out the chance to earn a few easy tickets. When a budget and competitive deck comes out, for example from Saffron Olive's Budget Magic or from any top performing lists, do make sure you aim for the correct cards:

  • Rares or especially mythics.
  • Uncommons that are very important to the deck's functionality and are played as four-ofs.

If you look at the following cards, you can notice the obvious spikes, and where they usually drop after a while once players stop buying them. The prices can fluctuate a lot in as little time as one hour, so it basically depends whether you are lucky enough to catch these. If you really want to be able to get these things, be sure to follow Saffron Olive's contents, especially Budget Magic, as well as some Japanese local event results, as Japanese players are very good at innovating new decks.

Grixis Midrange

Here it is, another deck that plays a full playset of Glorybringer, as I said just a few paragraphs ago. I personally tried this deck and found it to be very resilient. It plays similarly to Temur Energy and slightly more powerfully than Sultai Energy in terms of the card advantage from Chandra and Glorybringer in this list. Basically, this deck has almost everything that a Sultai Energy deck has, namely Glint-Sleeve Siphoner, Hostage Taker, The Scarab God and plenty of removal, but the Glorybringers do make a big difference in games. I think this is a good deck to invest in overall.

Another card that I want to talk about is Harnessed Lightning. I've talked about this card here, stating then that you guys could pick them up at 0.1-ish tickets with your leftover credits and sell them off above 0.5 tickets. With this Grixis deck and Ben Stark's Desert Red appearing in the meta, this card has the potential to earn us profit in the near future.

Blue-Black Midrange - Jaberwocki

Next up, we look toĀ Jaberwocki's deck. Jaberwocki is a well known Standard and Modern midrange/control player on MTGO. Instead of going the control path with these colors or going with Sultai/Temur Energy, he made a creature-based deck in blue and black, and it has performed surprisingly well. From this list, there are some cards that I want to suggest:

Vraska's Contempt is mainly used to deal with planeswalkers. Although this card has not seen play in decks other than green-black variants, the decks in the metagame have gone more midrange-style, with more planeswalkers like Chandra, Vraska and Nicol-Bolas. There are not many spells in the format that can destroy or exile walkers after they've resolved. This card is obviously not as powerful as Hero's Downfall from past Standards, but in my opinion, it will become a staple when the format is full of cards that can't be killed with Fatal Push, Harnessed Lightning and Doomfall. I think this card has not reached its absolute bottom yet, so you guys should put it on your watchlist for when it does.

Glint-Sleeve Siphoner is the Dark Confidant of Standard. Since the release of Ixalan, its price has been higher than usual as black-green variants play four copies of Siphoner mainboard. Now, with blue-black creature midrange from Jaberwocki, this card has the potential to go up in price again, like we saw with the spike in early November. Overall, efficient creatures in all formats are great to invest in when they are at their respective low points. Generally what defines "efficient"? In my opinion:

  • Modern Creatures that are two converted mana cost or less.
  • Standard Creatures that are four converted mana cost or less.
  • Must be either bigger than most creature of the same cost or provide good card advantage or some other benefit.

Alright, guys, that’s all for this week. I hope you guys found some useful information here. Thank you all for reading, and I’ll see you again next week.

–Adrian, signing out.

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