menu

Insider: Parsing the Ixalan Leak (Commander)

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back, readers! As I alluded to last week, this week's article will touch on the Ixalan spoilers we got a couple weeks ago. While I certainly don't condone people leaking WoTC trade secrets, it's public now and we will likely see some speculation based off of it. That being said, we want to be ahead of the game.

While everyone else is focused on Hour of Devastation, I'm going to jump ahead to Ixalan; mostly because we have a lot of the rares spoiled and they (along with mythics) tend to be the cards that cause spikes the most.

I also feel that there is a plethora of information for this article so I will be splitting it into different segments, with today's focus on the Commander format. I choose Commander first because 1) It's my current favorite format to play; and 2) A lot of our more recent spikes are due to Commander, meaning there is a healthy and strong demand from a large playerbase.

The biggest factor on Commander card spikes is usually related to new commanders (we saw this with Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons, The Gitrog Monster, and Omnath, Locus of Rage). Not every new legendary creature sparks a sudden demand for a new deck. There are plenty of sub-par ones that end up ignored (poor Munda, Ambush Leader), but we seem to get a really fun build-around-me general almost every set now.

A lot of the set is still missing from the leaked sheet, but we do have a good number of the rares. Let's look at the legendary creature options and what decks might be built around them. For each one I'll provide Mythic Spoiler's estimated guess of the actual text.

Mynea Frian, Dark Apostle

myneafriandarkapostle

2W
Legendary Creature - Vampire Cleric
Whenever one or more nontoken Vampires you control attack, create a 1/1 white Vampire creaure token with lifelink.
2/2

First we have a legendary Vampire Cleric. This is interesting because Vampires have been predominantly black and/or red throughout Magic's history. The ability is cool, but being mono-white, your only Vampires from previous Magic sets will be Changelings with no further tribal synergy.

This one would have been pretty cool if it was Mardu or black-red (where it would have had to compete with Olivia Voldaren), but as it currently sits I don't see a lot of people flocking to this one. This card could have been a really cool commander, except its color limitations honestly make it pretty bad.

Kopala, Warden of Waves

kopalawardenofwaves

1UU
Legendary Creature - Merfolk Wizard
Spells your opponents cast that target a Merfolk you control cost 1 more to cast.

Abilities your opponents activate that target a Merfolk you control cost 1 more to activate.
2/2

Next we have a legendary Merfolk Wizard, this time in the color associated with those creature types. The abilities definitely push for a more aggro-style deck, and they only affect Merfolk so this might push for a mono-blue Merfolk tribal deck (though we have other options already).

This one I actually see having more potential in Modern/Legacy Merfolk decks than in Commander. While the abilities are geared towards targeted spells and abilities, in Commander the preferred method of creature destruction is en masse—so neither ability may prove all that beneficial in Commander.

It is important to keep in mind that because the image is blurry, the numbers (specifically the exact cost it taxes spells and abilities) are still somewhat uncertain.

Admiral Beckett Brass

admiralbeckettbrass

1UBR
Legendary Creature - Human Pirate
Other Pirates you control get +1/+1.

At the beginning of your end step, gain control of target nonland permanent controlled by a player who was dealt combat damage by three or more Pirates this turn.
3/3

Here we have our legendary Human Pirate commander. We have had the Pirate subtype in the past (most notably in Portal, Portal: Second Age, and Mercadian Masques), however, none of those options are particularly impressive. This one is in the Grixis color scheme, so it allows more options, and that second ability is pretty cool assuming you can trigger it.

I feel like if this type of deck does emerge, then cards that give some form of mass evasion (ideally unblockability or landwalk) may see increased demand. Take Bedlam, for example, which only has two printings (7th Edition and Urza's Saga). If it became a "must-include" for this type of deck it could easily jump above its current bulk price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bedlam

Foils of Bedlam are already much more expensive, currently sitting in the $15ish range. As of writing, there are only two on TCGplayer, which either means a buyout or extremely small supply (or both).

Gishark, Sun's Avatar

gisharksunsavatar

5RGW
Legendary Creature - Dinosaur Avatar
Trample, vigilance, haste

When Gishark, Sun's Avatar deals combat damage to a player, reveal that many cards from the top of your library. Put any number of Dinosaur creature cards from among them onto the battlefield and the rest on the bottom of your library in a random order.
7/6

A legendary Dinosaur Avatar. With trample, vigilance, haste, and you can cheat additional Dinosaurs onto the battlefield. The biggest thing holding this guy back? There currently aren't any creatures with the subtype Dinosaur.

We've seen creatures like Imperiosaur and Allosaurus Rider, but until now Dinosaur was never a supported creature type. The question is whether Wizards is intending to errata past cards, or leave them as is.

Either way, the majority of the playable Dinosaurs are likely to appear in Ixalan block (again, discounting changelings). To make us even sadder, both cards that could change all your creatures to Dinosaurs are not in Gishark's colors: Conspiracy and Xenograft. However, it is important to keep in mind that with Dinosaurs being a key component of the Ixalan block, it wouldn't be surprising to see some of them pushed.

Captain Lannery Storm

captainlannerystorm

2R
Legendary Creature - Human Pirate
Haste

Whenever Captain Lannery Storm attacks, create a colorless Treasure artifact token with "T, Sacrifice this artifact: Add one mana of any color to your mana pool."

Whenever you sacrifice a treasure, Captain Lannery Storm gets +1/+0 until end of turn.
2/2

Another legendary Pirate, though in this case its mono-red (which currently only has one other Pirate, Kari Zev, Skyship Raider). He is a 2/2 with haste for three that creates Lotus Petals. I actually think he's a reasonable support card, as red's ramp is almost exclusively tied to artifacts, and making repeated one-shot mana rocks isn't terrible.

The thing to remember is that you can store these up and use several at once. So if you can drop him on turn three you can have access to six mana (post-combat) on turn four, which isn't bad.

His second ability (getting +1/+0 when you sacrifice a Treasure) honestly feels a bit tacked on. If there are a lot of red Treasure producers in the block you could potentially turn him into a one-vs-one general whose goal is to ramp into Treasures and one-shot your opponent as fast as possible.

All that being said, that's a pretty big "if." I don't think many will build decks around him, but he might find a home as one of 99 (instead of as the commander).

Tiehana, Voice of Thunder

tiehanavoiceofthunder

Legendary Creature - Merfolk
Tiehana, Voice of Thunder's power and toughness are equal to the number of cards in your hand.

You have no maximum hand size.

When Tiehana enters the battlefield, draw a card for each creature you control.
*/*

Our final legendary creature spoiled so far. We still don't know the CMC on this one, but the ability is quite powerful.

We basically have a cross between Regal Force and Maro. Based on the abilities and the coloring on the bars, this is most likely blue-green—which is fantastic, as those are the two most powerful colors in Commander.

It is truly unfortunate that the card with the most promise is the one we have the least information on. That said, a few cards seem like obvious inclusions in a deck built around this commander:

  • Regal Force
  • Shamanic Revelation
  • Collective Unconscious
  • Edric, Spymaster of Trest (if you go the weenie creature route to maximize the ETB ability)
  • Prime Speaker Zegana

If you can't tell, this is the one I'm most excited about and the one I see having the most promise. The biggest challenge on speculating off of this one is that many of the "obvious inclusions" for a deck based on this commander have several printings.

My pick for best speculation target for this general is Eternal Masters foil Regal Force, which is currently sitting in the sub-$6 range. Prior to its EMA printing, this was a $15 card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Regal Force

Despite my general preference for buying the cheapest copy possible when speculating, there is a growing demand to foil out Commander decks. We've seen a lot of recent growth with Commander foils that hasn't taken place in their regular counterparts. On the same note, Prime Speaker Zegana foils aren't a bad pickup either (as the only option is Gatecrash and the foil is sitting around $10).

Insiders: Update and First Steps for Improving Trader Tools

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

6/30/17, 3:55PM CST:

The prices have been restored and all vendors are showing up as they should, both in Trader Tools and ION Scanner's local database. The long and short of it is that, after four years of hourly auto-increments, the datatype in our DB ran out of numbers. It was one of those things that will only happen once.

Just for fun: we were using int, which goes up to 2,147,483,647. So we used all those. We changed it to another type that should give us room for a bit more than 17,000,000 years at our current rate.

Thanks again for your patience this afternoon.

 

6/30/17, 1:21 PM CST:

Hi Insiders,

As part of our initiative to optimize our tools – and quickly – we took down the price database this morning to do some short-term work. We discussed leaving portions of it running, but by simply taking it offline for a short while, we are able to work faster and more effectively.

For those interested, here are some technical details:

An issue is stemming from the population of the price databases for a few of our vendors. Their prices aren't updating the way they should, so we're digging into why this is and what has changed in the pipeline. With many moving pieces, sometimes things stop working as they have for inextricable surface-level reasons. Usually, we can tackle issues like this before resorting to an interruption in service, but this is one of the occasions where it's taking longer that we would hope to get ironed out.

This is part of the process of launching the new and improved Trader Tools, so thank you for your patience as we work on scaling up our technical team to match our increased growth! We'll have more info throughout the day.

Thanks,
Kelly, Tyler, and the QS Tech Team

Insider: QS Cast #68: Oldschool Update with Sigmund

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Sigmund Ausfresser fills in for Tarkan! You can find Sigmund and Sigmund's work here @sigfig8!
  • Interests.
  • Oldschool Update and buylist strength.
  • Chaz talks HOU Preorders!

 

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark @sigfig8

Avatar photo

Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

View More By Chaz V

Posted in Free Insider, QS CastLeave a Comment on Insider: QS Cast #68: Oldschool Update with Sigmund

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Relics and Revelations: SCG Roanoke Invitational Prep

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Preparation means something unique to everyone, and each player has their own pre-tournament ritual. Mine tends to vary depending on how invested I am in the format, and what other stuff I have going on. The SCG Roanoke Invitational will be underway by the time this piece goes public. In this article, I’ll describe how I prepared for that dual-format event, and reveal what I learned along the way about setting goals and relaxing expectations.

Motivation and Level Calibration

I’ve worked hard on preparing for the Invitational ever since Star City Games let me know I was qualified a month ago. “Hard,” of course, is relative, and what’s hard for me might not be what’s hard for you. In truth, preparing for this tournament has shown me that I’m not as serious a player I once thought I was. Part of my preparation has in fact consisted of coming to terms with that realization.

A couple years ago, when prompted about my Magic aspirations, I would reply that I wanted to make the Pro Tour. Not to win it, necessarily, but to compete at the game’s highest level. At the time, I would occasionally go to Competitive REL events, and greatly enjoyed the competition I found there. In the meantime, I brought silly brews to FNMs and tolerated the low quality of my opponents.

When I talked to Josh Utter-Leyton, a player I respect immensely, about this aspiration at GP Charlotte in 2015, he told me I could make the Pro Tour if I wanted to—whether I did or not depended on how much grinding I was prepared to do. His comments went over my head. Here I was doing well at what I considered a high-level tournament with Temur Delver, a deck I’d created myself and recently won a Classic with (my most significant Magic achievement to this day). If anyone can make it, I thought to myself, I should have no problem.

It turns out Josh’s advice was spot-on, and I paid for not taking it to heart. In failing to prepare for GP Detroit (where I hadn't even made Day 2) and the RPTQ (where I'd made the ultimate rookie mistake of playing something I hadn’t tested in that metagame), I demonstrated to myself that I may not care enough about breaking into higher levels of competition to put in the hours Josh wisely identified as necessary. I meditated on these events over the last couple of weeks, which saw me grind out more games of Modern instead of committing to testing with Standard, or bring jokey decks to my local tournaments (including, of all things, an updated version of Banana Phone). Kelsey asked, if I wasn’t going to put in the work I’d need to win the tournament, why travel to the tournament at all?

Some marinating led me to this answer. I think this level of tournament is the one I really like playing in. GPs, Opens, Classics, and other medium-level Competitive REL Modern events have given me the most fun games of my career, as well as the most instructive. When I arrived to the RPTQ and proceeded to get stomped by players who had done their research, I understood at last that I wasn’t the best Magic player, even if I was the best at my humble LGS. There will always be someone smarter, or willing to do more work than me, a step above. Based on where I’m currently at with Magic, I think I want to be pushing at that level and aspiring to challenge those players with greater frequency. If doing so helps me improve (which it may), and I outgrow those players too, then I’ll have to reconsider my stance and think about committing more time to the game so I can continue competing at a level that stimulates me. I’m pretty sure the level I’ve decided to focus on is about as far up as I can go without having to dip into Standard and Limited, and I’d prefer to stick to Modern if possible; I just have way more fun here.

Despite my revelation that I actually don’t want to make the Pro Tour, I’m still stoked for the Invitational weekend, and excited to play the best Magic I can. Here’s what I’ll bring to battle in each format.

Standard: Mono-Black Zombies

I messed around with a few different Standard decks before settling on Zombies. I don’t want to dwell too much on the Standard metagame in this article (both because we’re Modern Nexus and because it just isn’t that interesting to me), but I think my experience of choosing a deck for a format I don’t play, specifically as someone who exclusively plays Modern, may interest some readers.

Mono-Black Zombies, by Gerry Thompson

Creatures

4 Metallic Mimic
4 Cryptbreaker
4 Diregraf Colossus
4 Dread Wanderer
4 Lord of the Accursed
4 Relentless Dead

Enchantments

3 Liliana's Mastery

Instants

3 Fatal Push
2 Grasp of Darkness

Sorceries

4 Dark Salvation

Lands

22 Swamp
2 Westvale Abbey

Sideboard

2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
1 Fatal Push
2 Grasp of Darkness
3 Liliana, the Last Hope
2 Never // Return

I started testing for the Invitational just after the Aetherworks Marvel ban. Prior to that, I had no idea about the format, but was sure I would borrow Marvel from someone for the tournament. All I knew was that it was a swingy, fast, linear, infuriating deck that would likely give me some free wins. With Marvel out of the picture, I turned to the other Standard deck I’d at least heard about: Mardu Vehicles.

The Rejects

Vehicles is a highly interactive midrange deck with aggressive one-drops, recursive and evasive threats, and a respectable mid-game plan in Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. It also has the option of sideboarding into a planeswalker-centric control deck. In other words, Vehicles is a jack-of-all-trades full of stand-alone good cards, which is kind of what I enjoy playing in competitive events. I like to think that my skills in combat, sequencing, and pacing removal will translate smoothly between formats.

The pros seemed pretty down on the deck, with many citing Zombies and the various flavors of BG as superior choices. The consensus among them seemed to be that with Marvel gone, the decks that Marvel suppressed, and that are otherwise better than Vehicles, can rise up. I started to feel that Vehicles might be a strong choice since everything I read brushed it aside, as it might surprise players expecting the ostensibly stronger Zombies & co. Besides, it’s not like Vehicles is bad, by any means—it’s one of the few decks in Standard with passable one-drops and one of the few that properly wields the strongest card in Standard, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

Soon into my testing, though, I started having doubts. For one, the internet had no consistent opinion on the planeswalker plan for post-board games. I knew I would lose some matches to my own bad sideboarding, which I would prefer to avoid. Second, Mardu Vehicles is a deck that’s been around in Standard for what seems like forever at this point—after all, even I’d heard of the deck! Perhaps if the pros weren’t covering it as much, it wasn’t because the deck was necessarily a bad choice, but because everyone already knew plenty about it. Including how to beat it. My opponents were all guaranteed to have thought-out plans against me, whereas I was hoping to walk in and blindly turn guys sideways into the hate. Not to mention the possibility of a mirror-match: pairing with another Vehicles player almost guarantees that I lose, since they’ll have more experience in navigating the matchup and with sideboarding.

Next up was Temur Emerge. A friend whose Modern prowess I admire showed up to FNM trying to piece together a Standard deck he’d seen a tweet about for a PPTQ the next day, even though he also hadn’t played the format in years. I brought him some Kozilek's Returns the next morning and watched him play a little. He managed to Top 8 with a rogue Elder Deep-Fiend deck (for those of you who play Standard, think Temur Energy minus Glorybringer, but plus Deep-Fiend and delirium enablers) and zero format experience.

The deck seemed fun, and I rationalized to myself that having Kozilek's Return to survive the early-game, Tireless Tracker to pull ahead in the mid-game, and an incredible top-end threat in Fiend put me in a solid position to go over the fair decks (of which Standard is almost entirely comprised) without first losing to the aggro decks.

I gave up on that deck for a couple of reasons. First, it was a little too synergy-oriented for my taste; without the admittedly weak Vessel of Nascency, Temur Emerge often had trouble turning on delirium. A friend I asked for advice told me the deck “needed x and y to come together” before succeeding, and he was right. Second, I realized it was suicide to bring a brew (and an untuned one, at that) to a competitive tournament in a relatively solved format that I’d never played. The best decks are established in Standard, and plenty has been written about them. I decided it was wiser to do my homework and then pick the deck I thought had the best shot of putting me into Day 2.

Back to Black

That deck was Mono-Black Zombies. Most of the top players agree Zombies is the deck to beat this weekend, meaning I’ll have a target over my head. That doesn’t bother me so much as long as I’m playing something competent that I feel okay about. The deck’s apparent grinding and aggressive capabilities appeal to the Spike in me, and you only have to tap a few zombies to Cryptbreaker once to be hooked. Gerry Thompson’s excellent article on the deck gave me an idea of how to sideboard, and a couple of test matches later, I was off to the races.

Modern: Colorless Eldrazi Stompy

This choice should come as a surprise to exactly no-one. After all, I said just last week I’d be playing it! I still made one small change to my configuration:

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
4 Matter Reshaper
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Ratchet Bomb

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
3 Gemstone Caverns
4 Ghost Quarter
3 Sea Gate Wreckage
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Ratchet Bomb
2 Pithing Needle
4 Spatial Contortion
1 Gut Shot
1 Surgical Extraction

That change was to swap out the singleton mainboard Relic of Progenitus for a Ratchet Bomb. I liked Relic as a hedge against Death’s Shadow, but that matchup is already quite good pre-board thanks to Chalice of the Void. The rest of the time, Relic can sometimes brick later in the game with a Chalice on one, since opponents are unlikely to remove the lock effect before sideboarding. Relic is also dead versus Eldrazi Tron, another matchup I wanted to hedge against—Bomb shines there while also boasting utility against Shadow and many other decks, including Affinity.

Speaking of Affinity, I expect it to perform very well this weekend despite its success at GP Las Vegas two weeks ago. The Invitational crowd is likely to be aware of that deck’s cyclical metagame positioning, and I bet many will try to next-level the competition by sleeving up such an obviously “unsafe” choice.

Stompy in the Metagame

Let’s tackle the deck’s positioning more explicitly. Honestly, I love my chances with Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. I have the intimate knowledge of the deck necessary for success in Modern, it’s a rogue strategy I don’t think opponents will be prepared to beat, and my win rates are superb across the board. Death’s Shadow has all but taken care of GR Valakut, and I believe Death & Taxes/Hatebears/Counters Company will edge out Bant Spirits.

Those are the deck’s two worst matchups. Beyond that, Tarmogoyf, Ancient Grudge, and Maelstrom Pulse made Jund Shadow a harder matchup than Grixis, and the Traverse build has mostly died out by now.

While Eldrazi Tron can be swingy depending on who draws more Temples, I’m also comfortable with my matchup there and wouldn’t mind facing the deck a couple times this weekend. Ideally, though, I’d pair with the rest of the field, which I think will have a very hard time winning through our many angles of attack: Relic shuts down graveyard strategies, Chalice halts opponents too focused on casting one-drops, Thought-Knot Seer and Eldrazi Mimic hassle combo, Scourge lets us “go Dredge” against attrition strategies, and our 13-card post-board removal suite keeps creature decks off their win conditions long enough for Reality Smasher to stick and close out the game.

But What About Eldrazi Tron?

I actually think Colorless Eldrazi Stompy is just a better version of Eldrazi Tron, which is itself one of the strongest decks in Modern. It’s not like I’m bringing a totally rogue deck like Temur Delver to the Invitational; we share plenty of cards with the reigning colorless king. The reason people aren’t playing this deck? They haven’t caught on.

Comparing the two decks, we see that Colorless Eldrazi Stompy has a lower curve, meaning it misses out on cards like Karn Liberated and All is Dust. But since it kills opponents much faster, it doesn’t need those late-game cards. Simian Spirit Guide makes Chalice of the Void all the more potent in our deck than in Eldrazi Tron, in addition to helping buff our openers.

These openers form the other major draw to Stompy. Thanks to Serum Powder and Gemstone Caverns, we don’t have to durdle around with Expedition Map before casting huge guys. Rather, we have more reliable access to fast mana early on, like Bant Eldrazi. Unlike Bant, though, we’re not praying that our mana dork sticks or hoping to open certain colors to get there.

So what does Tron have over Stompy? The big one here is Walking Ballista. Even when cast “fairly” for x = 3 or similar, Ballista is a tremendously versatile card, and one of the major draws to Eldrazi Tron. Of course, the aggro decks it typically dismantles already fold to our removal suite, so Ballista’s true potential lies in its occasional paring with Basilisk Collar. Since Collar is never run as more than a two-of in Eldrazi Tron (and frequently only earns itself a single slot, in the sideboard), I don’t think that’s a particularly alluring reason to run Tron lands over creature lands.

Going back to Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, we also pack a backbreaking combination in our 75: Scourge plus Relic. This pairing makes it impossible for grindy decks to actually grind us out, forcing them into an aggressive role immediately if they want to beat us at all. Even then, they’ll have to defeat us through an unending stream of Wild Nacatls. And I’ve found it more common that opponents fail to realize the role they must take to win, and instead start Bolting and Pushing Scourge to protect their life points. Not once has this strategy worked against Scourge plus Relic, and although I expect my Invitational opponents to be significantly better than those players I duel with on a daily basis, I’d be surprised if nobody made that mistake this weekend.

Shooting for a Pass

For me, Magic is a game about learning. Learning which cards to add or cut; how to sequence plays better in a given scenario; what to play around or towards depending on the format. There’s even learning to be done out-of-game, as I was fortunate to discover this month. Wish me luck this weekend (or tune in on stream now) and I’ll touch base with you again next Friday!

Insider: The Impact of the Ixalan Planeswalker Legend Rule Change Leak

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

An entire rare sheet of the upcoming set Ixalan was recently leaked. While the image was blurry and only portions of cards were legible, this leak has major implications for the future, and the market has reacted to this early information in anticipation of what is to come in September.

The leaked sheet showed a brand new type of card – legendary planeswalker – which can be found on all of the leaked planeswalkers. The simplest explanation to this is that Wizards is changing the planeswalker uniqueness rule to a normal legend rule. This sort of massive change would mean an errata to all existing planeswalkers to behave the same way, which is a massive shift in how these cards functions and greatly increases their desirability.

Under this presumed rule change, planeswalkers would behave very differently with any cards that can interact with legends, and that significantly increases the playability of many cards. The rules change and the wealth of new interaction will be felt the most in Commander, and the popularity of that format has already increased the demand for many cards and caused some significant spikes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reki, the History of Kamigawa

Reki, the History of Kamigawa now triggers to draw a card when planeswalkers are cast, so it’s suddenly a much more attractive commander to build a deck around. The price has reacted accordingly, spiking from $1.50 to nearly $10, but now settled around $5. The foil was sitting at $15 and has now doubled to around $30. As more players become aware of the changes and Ixalan’s release, I expect these prices to head upwards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Captain Sisay

Captain Sisay is another commander that has seen its playability skyrocket with the planeswalker rule change. She can now tap to search for the wealth of quality planeswalkers available to these colors. The original non-foil price had been very slowly trending upwards since 2016, where it entered the year at $3, and the pace accelerated in 2017, where it started at $3.50 and had grown to $5 by the time of the leak, when it spiked to the $20 where it now sits. The foil Invasion price has approximately doubled, from under $30 to nearly $60, while the From the Vault: Legends reprint has tripled from $10 to $30. I imagine the card was already underpriced, and with the new rule change the card will only continue to grow from here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mirror Gallery

A very interesting spike from the rules changes is Mirror Gallery. Previously, this wouldn’t have any impact on planeswalkers, because their uniqueness rule was technically different from the legendary rule. Now they function just like other legends, so if a player has two copies of a planeswalker in play, they must sacrifice one. Mirror Gallery turns this rule off, so it opens up the possibility of having two copies of, let’s say, Jace, the Mind Sculptor in play. There’s plenty of casual and Commander appeal here, which explains the nearly doubling of the price to $12. The foil has followed suit, jumping from $13 to $25.

There are some other cards that got a lot more interesting with the rules changes, and their prices may still allow for major gains.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Empress Galina

Empress Galina can now be used to steal planeswalkers, which is a big boost to its power and desirability. It’s even a potential Commander, so odds are this is going to see its price grow going forward. Empress Galina has already seen a 10-percent gain since the leak, breaking $5, so there is clearly some interest here. Foil copies can be had for under $20.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yomiji, Who Bars the Way

Yomiji, Who Bars the Way has become an incredible way to protect planeswalkers, and as a legendary creature it could even be used as a commander in a deck with all of white planeswalkers. At under $1 and $3 for the foils, I like the potential upside here, and I can’t see the price ever really falling from here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Honor-Worn Shaku

Honor-Worn Shaku becomes supercharged as a mana rock with the rule change. Previously, legendary creatures could be used to untap it, which prevented them from attacking or using other abilities, but there’s virtually no cost to tapping a planeswalker. It has a lot of competition, but it seems like an easy inclusion into a planeswalker-heavy deck, so I see plenty of upside for this card that’s under a quarter with foils under a buck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thalia's Lancers

Thalia's Lancers got much better being able to search for planeswalkers. It will be out of Standard when the rules change, but it has a bright future in Commander. Now seems like a good time to acquire foil foreign copies at a discount before their prices inevitably spike.

We could go really deep with this. For example, Minamo, School at Water's Edge will untap planeswalkers, but that’s essentially meaningless.

Are there any other cards positively impacted from the rules change?

-Adam
Follow me on Twitter!

The Summer of Fringe: Reactions to Shadow

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Modern is going through something of a shake-up right now. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the status quo turned on its head with the rise, and subsequent fall, of Grixis Death’s Shadow. For months before Grixis’ ascension, weekly results were the same bland mini-variation of Affinity, Dredge, and Eldrazi Tron. Death’s Shadow Jund would rise up here and there, Storm would rear its head, and Burn would make everyone question their life choices.

Now, anything is possible. Just ask Mirran Crusader. No, this isn’t tech against Infect in New Phyrexia Standard. This is Lightning Bolt Modern, except everyone left their Lightning Bolts at home. Hold on to your seat kids, because we’re currently in that crazy period where anybody can play anything, because much of the meta is playing bad lists. Scared? You should be. Today, I’m going to try and talk you through it. Welcome to Fringe Modern.

What the Hell Happened?

See, it starts simple enough. Some well-meaning mages get together, discover a strategy that employs all the best cards, and do well on one weekend. That pushes the envelope just a little bit, and before you know it everyone loses their minds. People don’t like losing matchups where they draw their sideboard cards, and the people have spoken. Forget John Tucker, Grixis Death’s Shadow must die. See, Grixis Death’s Shadow is powerful, and hits hard, and has disruption and card advantage and checks all the boxes. We could be here all day talking about what it does right, but what really matters is what it doesn’t do, which is not fold to a couple sideboard spells. Eldrazi Tron can play some Relic of Progenitus and Chalice of the Void, but that doesn’t matter when Grixis’ creatures are bigger, their removal is better, and they play a card that counters Eldrazi’s whole deck. Neat Relic of Progenitus, buddy. Take 10?

The tools to beat Grixis have been right in front of us, so the story here isn’t as simple as, “oh, it just took a while to find the right tech.” Thanks to Eldrazi Tron, most of the decks that could beat Grixis couldn’t make it through the format gatekeeper, so they rarely got to face their mark after the fifth round. Then, Mono-White Hatebears happened.

The New Baseline?

You heard that right. Mono. White. Hatebears. Craig Wescoe even made an appearance, but he was packing green cards too. Grixis Death’s Shadow cut their Lightning Bolts, and Eldrazi Tron pushed out Jund Midrange. And here we are.

Mono-White Hatebears, by Theau Mery (2nd, GP Vegas)

Creatures

4 Restoration Angel
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Thraben Inspector
1 Weathered Wayfarer
2 Serra Avenger
1 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Flickerwisp
4 Leonin Arbiter
1 Mirran Crusader
4 Blade Splicer

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
1 Eiganjo Castle
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Horizon Canopy
9 Plains
4 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Dusk // Dawn
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Mirran Crusader
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Silence
2 Stony Silence

I spotlighted this deck last week, but if I’m a betting man (and I am) I’d say you skimmed over it—because I did too, and I wrote about it! It’s 2017 and Thraben Inspector is still being played in a format with Tarmogoyf, Goblin Guide, and 4/5s for one. Silence is in the sideboard. I remember casting Silence against my dad at the kitchen table in 2011. What have we become?

If you’re scoffing along with me, you’ve already lost. Jund Midrange could come back and beat this deck to a pulp (and I imagine it will soon), but until then you have to deal with it. If you’re not playing Lightning Bolts, you’re part of the problem. This deck exists, in July of 2017, because everyone is looking at everyone else, expecting each other to the dirty work. It’s the bystander effect, and Hatebears is the enabled bully.

Welcome to Your Tape

It’s on you now. If you’re not playing Hatebears, Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, Dredge, Burn, or Death’s Shadow, you’re on the outside looking in. Choose your weapon wisely, because you are the one responsible for fixing this mess—or busting it wide open, depending on where you let your allegiances lie. Here come the players.

Solar Flare, by Finalnub (5-0, Modern League)

Creatures

1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Obzedat, Ghost Council
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
1 Griselbrand

Instants

1 Go for the Throat
2 Path to Exile
3 Gifts Ungiven
2 Fatal Push

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

1 Thoughtseize
3 Goryo's Vengeance
4 Serum Visions
1 Unburial Rites
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Lingering Souls
3 Collective Brutality

Lands

1 Concealed Courtyard
2 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Darkslick Shores
1 Fetid Heath
4 Flooded Strand
2 Godless Shrine
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
4 Marsh Flats
1 Plains
1 Seachrome Coast
2 Swamp
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Celestial Purge
1 Countersquall
2 Detention Sphere
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Disenchant
1 Murderous Cut
1 Negate
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Ojutai's Command
2 Stony Silence
2 Supreme Verdict

Obzedat, Ghost Council? Why not? Having Thragtusk flashbacks yet? Jace, Vryn's Prodigy to dump all our sweet flashback spells and enable Goryo's Vengeance and Unburial Rites only works when our opponent is playing a 1/2 that cantrips, and their endgame is, “how many Golems can I make this game?”

You might wonder about a graveyard combo deck in a field where everyone is packing Relic of Progenitus like it’s the Wild Wild West, but that’s not what we’re looking at here. Solar Flare is a midrange deck, (made possible by Fatal Push, by the way) that happens to use its graveyard for value. Trust me, finalnub is happy everytime you drop Relic of Progenitus against him. What are you going to do, use it in response to Unburial Rites? No problem! Relic activation resolves, activate Jace, discard another fatty to bring back, resolve Unburial Rites. They play five. Five gigantic creatures in a turn-four format.

Except this isn’t a turn-four format anymore, is it? Sure, Dredge still wins games quickly, as does Affinity, but everyone is prepared for those matchups. The rest of the field is wide open, because everyone is finally back to dedicating five-plus slots to interacting with their opponent. We haven’t been able to say that since Splinter Twin, now have we?

Mono-Blue Tron, by shoktroppa (5-0, Modern League)

Creatures

1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Sundering Titan
1 Treasure Mage
1 Trinket Mage
1 Walking Ballista
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Platinum Angel

Artifacts

1 Chalice of the Void
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Oblivion Stone
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Talisman of Progress
2 Mindslaver
3 Expedition Map

Instants

4 Remand
3 Repeal
1 Fabricate
4 Condescend
4 Thirst for Knowledge
1 Cyclonic Rift

Planeswalkers

1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Lands

1 Academy Ruins
1 Gemstone Caverns
6 Island
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 River of Tears
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Tolaria West
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower

Sideboard

3 Dismember
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Ghost Quarter
2 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Spatial Contortion
3 Spreading Seas
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Wurmcoil Engine

Here, a wild Mono-Blue Tron appears, like it's 2015. I wonder what Amulet Bloom is doing these days? While a ton of counterspells don’t look that great against an Aether Vial, Mono-Blue Tron has ways of making Hatebears talk. Against everyone else, all those interactive spells don’t do much against an Expedition Map, because the Tron everyone has been taught to fear comes in Eldrazi colors (get it?!). If anything can whip this format into a shape, it’s a nice healthy dose of Condescend, but Mono-Blue Tron’s sideboard options have always left something to be desired. You know, like options.

Mardu Aggro, by Selfeisek (5-0, Modern League)

Creatures

4 Young Pyromancer
4 Bedlam Reveler
2 Monastery Swiftspear

Enchantments

1 Blood Moon

Instants

3 Kolaghan's Command
2 Terminate
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
1 Burst Lightning

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Lingering Souls
2 Forked Bolt
3 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Dreadbore

Lands

1 Marsh Flats
3 Mountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Swamp
3 Wooded Foothills
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Fatal Push
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Pithing Needle
1 Shattering Spree
2 Wear // Tear

This week was almost a Mardu article, but the deck never made it out of my sketchbook and into Magic Online. I was playing Nahiri, the Harbinger, but I can understand the hesitation to play a four-drop in an open field where some of our opponents are going wide. Regardless, removal, Young Pyromancer, and Blood Moon were all in the mix, and I’m glad to see them here.

Sometimes we can get in our own way as deckbuilders/players, and ignore the facts in front of us in the search for some hidden answer. Sometimes, the solution is as simple as, “Not playing Lightning Bolt got us into this mess? Guess I’ll play Lightning Bolt…” Remember that hero we were searching for earlier? Selfeisek’s got the team on his back.

Grixis Death’s Shadow showed us the power of just emptying your hand as fast as possible. Burn, removal, discard—we’ll take it all if it costs one mana, and then we’ll play Bedlam Reveler, and another one, and another one. He’s got Hatebears covered for sure, and Eldrazi Tron should have a hard time fighting through removal, Blood Moon, discard, Lingering Souls, and Young Pyromancer. Against the field? I’ll take one mana spells.dek for 1000, Alex.

Conclusion

If you’re a meticulous tuner who likes solving puzzles with neat, orderly rules and everything in its place, this format is probably driving you nuts right now. If you like to live dangerously, flirt with disaster, or put extra bacon on that cheeseburger, live it up buddy. Regardless of which side you’re on, this format is wide open right now; that much is for certain. Whether you’re looking to close the door, or bust it off the hinges, this is what your peers have been up to.

What about you? Let me know in the comments below what you think about the format right now and what steps you’ve taken to adjust to it. Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week.

Trevor Holmes

Insider: PGET15OFF

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hi there!

This article's title will make sense to some of you, but not everyone. That's fine. If you didn't get it, you probably avoided the blurb on the QS front page in a fevered frenzy to discover first hand what I had to say this week. That's fine too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Finest Hour

The plan today is to take a brief vacation from our Breaking Bulk column and instead talk about the joys of flash sales, particularly those that have been firing off on eBay recently. For those unaware, I'll explain.

What is a Flash Sale?

Over the past several months, eBay has been dishing out flash-sale coupons for those who are quick enough to act upon them. They usually only last for five to six hours (until 11 p.m. EST) on the day they're announced, but they're definitely worth it for those who keep tabs on the Twitter-verse and r/mtgfinance on Reddit. Either myself or one of my colleagues on Quiet Speculation is usually quick to announce that you've got a few hours left to get in on these sales. When you see these, you should absolutely take advantage of them for some quick flips, cheap cards for your decks, or even long-term specs if you're into that sort of thing.

Ebay

Every coupon has been the same so far to the best of my knowledge: if you spend $75 or more at a single time, you get $15 off the purchase. If you manage to go exactly lethal and end up spending $75, this is a 20-percent-off sale. Not a Black Friday-level deal by any means, but certainly reasonable if you know what you're looking for already.

Let's note that these coupons only apply to those who use PayPal as a checkout method. If you're someone who doesn't trust PayPal for one reason or another, these coupons unfortunately won't apply to you.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Cheese Stands Alone

One of the goals of this article is to give you an idea of what the best buys are should you not already have a wish list full of cards you'd love to pick up. However, if you're someone who actually plays the game and is trying to buy cards for a decklist, that should probably be your number-one priority instead of spending $75-plus on quick flips that will only make you $10 over a week or two. eBay usually has prices comparable to TCGplayer low, and combining this coupon with eBay Bucks can land you some serious deals on singles that are scarily close to buylist.

The reason I'm choosing until now to write this article is because eBay has increased the frequency of how often these sales happen. Over the past several months, it was common for there to be one flash sale per month, if that. Missing out on it would mean waiting multiple weeks before you could take advantage of the deal, and I don't personally know of a way to set a trigger for you to be notified through email when the sale goes live. So if you checked Reddit past 11:00 p.m. EST, tough cookies.

However, there have been two flash sales within the past week. If they continue to bump up the deals to twice a month, there's definitely going to be more opportunities to scale up  your eBay bucks and continue to buy some excellent sealed product.

Tell Me What to Buy Already

"But DJ! You've written at least two articles talking about how sealed product is gross in the modern era, and how you don't like speculating on it anymore!"

That's partially true. I still believe that the time of "buy a  booster box on release and wait five years" is dead and gone. The last box where that was an option was original Innistrad, with Return to Ravnica ending up as a miserable investment for everyone involved. However, I'd argue that there's still hope for sealed product if you know how to sell within your local area on Facebook, have friends to draft with, or simply want to collect product without paying full retail.

CN2

I've personally bought a couple of Conspiracy: Take the Crown boxes over the course of the past few flash sales. This store in particular has always had them in stock at $90 shipped, and they ship quickly and safely. With the help of the flash sale code (and now you know what the article title was for), you're paying $75 on a booster box with 36 packs, so even less than wholesale. While cracking single boxes of Amonkhet or Kaladesh is almost a financial death sentence (unless you rip a Masterpiece), Conspiracy is loaded with enough crazy foils and higher-end mythics to at least consistently break even.

Check out DawnGlare  if you're curious about the EV of various sets. While obviously not every box has a Leovold, Emissary of Trest, you can still easily recoup value on foils and mythics by cracking it. Hell, most of the mythics in the box are $10 solid, and have no signs of decreasing anytime soon.

Now that you've got a $75 Conspiracy box, you've got options. You could just do a $12 draft with seven other friends and end up getting $84 with a free draft. Not bad at all. If you're lonely and have no friends, you could simply try to flip it to someone who does. Local Facebook groups are great for moving sealed product because you get to avoid the obvious hassle of shipping. I moved more than one Conspiracy box at $85 to locals in my area for a simple $10 profit. It doesn't feel like owning a billion Decree of Silences pre-spike, but it's simple and efficient. Overall, I'd say Conspiracy (preferably Take the Crown) is the safest pickup for someone looking to throw their $75 at eBay during the sale.

CanthEbay

If you listened to Brainstorm Brewery, you'd know that both I and Ryan Bushard really like the Commander Anthology product as a pickup going forward. I'm not planning on hoarding or keeping them either – I want to crack and sell all of it.

There's a ton of hidden value in these boxes, especially when a lot of people are only thinking about the foil commanders. Did you know that the life counter dice sell for $8 to $10 easily? I'm shocked at how quickly I've sold all of my Commander Anthology life counters, considering phone apps with life tracking exist. Still, if you sell the four life counters that come with the product at $9 each, that's almost 30 percent of the value in the product upfront – before we even crack the decks.

That's also assuming we use a flash sale coupon on the above listing, getting the product for $108 shipped. After that, we only need to get $72 out of the four decks, and that will be easy. There's four Sol Rings, three Command Towers, a foil Kaalia of the Vast... yeah. The Commander Anthology provides some of the easiest money to make off of sealed product I've ever seen, and that's even before you sell all of the bulk.

Wait, did I say all of the bulk? I sure did, friend. Did you know that Card Kingdom is offering five cents on every single common or uncommon in the product?

Yep. They'll pay you the standard ten cents on most of the bulk rares, but they 'll literally give you at least a nickel on their buylist for every single garbage guildgate and Altar's Reap in the decks, provided you alphabetize the product first. If you were planning on shipping an order to Card Kingdom in the near future, there's pretty much no downside to loading up all your Commander Anthology bulk into the existing order, then throwing the higher-end stuff on Facebook, Twitter or TCGplayer to sell separately.

Not a bad investment, eh?

CanthCK2Canth CK

Finally, I want to talk about Masterpieces. They're not an area where I have a whole lot of expertise, but I wanted to at least make a brief note of them as a purchasing option before shipping this article into the aether.

The cohosts of Cartel Aristocrats (specifically Edward Nguyen and Travis Allen) have been keeping a closer eye on these than I have, but the Kaladesh and Aether Revolt Masterpieces are still looking to be strong buys, if the competitively played ones follow the suit of Chalice of the Void, Sol Ring and Mox Opal. I'm not as confident on these as I am about the two above sealed products that I mentioned, but the graph on Masterpiece Arcbound Ravager looks like it could start following Mox Opal if the supply gets low enough.

The same holds true for Ensnaring Bridge. If you're even remotely considering picking up either of these two Masterpieces, I'd do so sooner rather than later. The potential payoff is much higher than a box of Conspiracy, even if it might take you longer to flip for a profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcbound Ravager

ravager

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ensnaring Bridge

bridge

 

End Step

While the #mtgfinance hashtag and subreddits have primarily devolved into a cesspool, they're still going to be the best place to be notified of an eBay flash sale. They're only live for approximately five to six hours, so it's best to know what you want and have a plan to pick it up immediately as soon as you notice that the sale goes live.

Deals like the Ensnaring Bridge picture above will dissipate quickly, so have your PayPal at the ready and willing to snap up those 20-percent discounts. Alternatively, you could play it safe and put in the effort to grab one of those sealed products I mentioned earlier in the article. Either way, I hope this article was able to save you some money in the future.

See you next week!

Insider: So You Want to Sell Your Deck?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last week I covered the major cards from Hour of Devastation and discussed their financial as well as competitive applications. Since I wrote that article, not much has been added to the spoiler. I'll most likely jump back into the spoiler breakdown next week, but for now, I have an interesting finance concept to present to you guys.

As buyers or competitors, one financial concept that will always be relevant is the cost of a deck. Frequently, we as writers break down the cards you should be buying and selling all the time. But for players switching decks or buyers acquiring these decks, what's the most profitable way to move the whole pile of cards?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arms Dealer

This is a concept I've put a lot of thought and analysis toward lately. I've been streamlining my collection, and as part of that process, I intend to liquidate most of my Modern decks. With less time to play, some of these decks have been sitting around unused for a while. So I'm going to sell them.

But Why?!

Why would I sell these decks? Isn't investing in Modern a great place to put your money?

Actually, no. With Wizards's insane printing schedule this past year and the docket we have in store for us in the future, I don't think the prices of Modern staples are going to rise the way we thought they would. A great example are the Khans fetchlands, and they haven't been printed again since that time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

With all that in mind, there are many reasons to sell a deck. What we want to look at today is what options you have for making the most out of your investment.

The Buylist Option

The first, most obvious choice is to buylist your entire deck at an event. I've seen it time and time again: players get furious about their losing streak and rage quit their decks. Most of the time, this ends with a hasty walk straight to a dealer to unload their misery and replace it with a little cash in their pockets.

I’ve never rage quit a deck, but I have sold decks like this before. The reason to choose this option is when you have only a few cards worth money in the deck. Anyone is going to pick out these select few cards as the highlights from the deck and make an offer on them. This happens a lot with Standard decks filled with good commons and uncommons. Unless people are running low on playable, low-rarity cards, they will ignore most of the deck.

This can also happen in Modern with budget decks like Mono Red Burn. Most Burn decks are expensive because of the mana base, but if you take that away, what’s left is Goblin Guide and not a lot else.

You might choose this option as well if you really need the money. I’ve seen players who keep up with finance choose this option because they had a bad streak of luck and just needed some cash to catch up.

Whatever your reason, this is the quickest and easiest route to cashing out your deck. It’s not the most profitable for you, though, so if you can avoid it, choose another option. To illustrate this point, let’s take a look at two of the decks I am liquidating: Tron and Affinity. (Keep in mind the Tron deck is missing the Grove of the Burnwillows because I chose not to sell them.)

Tron Liquidation

Creatures

2 Spellskite
2 Wurmcoil Engine
2 World Breaker
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Spells

4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Expedition Map
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Sylvan Scrying
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Karn Liberated
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
2 Oblivion Stone

Lands

4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
2 Sanctum of Ugin
2 Forest

Sideboard

3 Warping Wail
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Crumble to Dust
2 Nature's Claim
3 Thragtusk
2 Firespout
2 Ancient Grudge

(The Forests are from Unglued.)

Trader Tools Buy List Price: $468.05
Trader Tools Retail Price: $604.52

That’s actually decent. Let’s see how Affinity breaks down.

Affinity Liquidation

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Steel Overseer
1 Master of Etherium
2 Etched Champion
1 Spellskite
2 Memnite
4 Ornithopter
4 Signal Pest
4 Vault Skirge

Spells

4 Springleaf Drum
4 Cranial Plating
2 Thoughtcast
4 Galvanic Blast
4 Mox Opal

Lands

3 Glimmervoid
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Island

Sideboard

1 Welding Jar
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Spellskite
2 Wear // Tear
1 Dispatch
3 Spell Pierce
2 Whipflare
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Ghirapur Aether Grid
1 Illness in the Ranks
1 Dismember

(The Island is from Unglued.)

Trader Tools Buy List Price: $489.47
Trader Tools Retail Price: $665.66

Honestly, I was expecting these numbers to be a little higher for a staple Modern deck like Affinity. The buylist numbers from Trader Tools seem great, though. We have Tron at 77 percent of the retail price and Affinity close behind at 74 percent.

I haven't buylisted either of these decks and I don’t expect to, so what other routes can I take?

Local Stores

One avenue you should always explore is your local game shop. Some of these stores operate like the big businesses and will offer to buy your deck similar to above. They might be more interested in keeping the deck together to sell, though. The fact that you have a complete deck is an asset that can get you more money. If you don’t sell your Vault Skirges, Galvanic Blasts or Sylvan Scryings, what would you do with them? So being able to get some value out of your entire deck allows you to maximize your potential profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Galvanic Blast

Unfortunately for me, I am my local game store. There are a couple smaller stores near me, but the store I co-own is the biggest store within a 45-minute radius. I don’t want the deck to go into the store’s inventory, so this method won’t work for me, but keep it in mind for yourself.

Selling Groups

Next up is checking with any groups you are a part of on Facebook. This can be competitive players or maybe you are a part of a group that regularly sells cards, which would be even better. You can also check with the Twitter #mtgbuysell hash tag. I have not had much luck with #mtgbuysell, but I think it will pick up in popularity, so keep it in mind as an option.

I love selling options like these because this is where you are most likely to make the most money. There are no fees for you to keep in mind for your profit calculations and no shipping to worry about.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Opal

For Affinity, I was able to move it within one of the Facebook groups I am a part of, and because of that, I was able to price it at $640. This price point is the TCGplayer low value for the deck. (For reference, the TCGplayer low value for Tron is $618). Those numbers are pretty close to the $665.66 for Affinity and $604.52 for Tron that Trader Tools pulled for the retail value.

TCGplayer or eBay

After you’ve explored these options, you have a couple of choices. You can list the entire deck on eBay and deal with the fees and shipping. You can also list the cards individually on TCGplayer, but then you have to make multiple shipments once the cards sell – and deal with the fees as well.

Of those two, I prefer eBay over TCGplayer for decks, but TCGplayer for most other things. You can always just jump back to step one as well and buylist the expensive cards from your deck.

As for me, I’m going to try to move Tron as a deck and not split up the components just yet.

Let me know in the comments if you liked this article. Have you gone through this process as well? Which did you choose and why? Did I miss another method to moving your unused deck?

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

All the Announcements Fit to Print

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello,

Welcome to both new and old subscribers! We're just returning from Grand Prix Vegas – and wow, what an event it was! The response to the QS booth was both overwhelmingly positive and humbling.

We were stoked to learn that the ION Scanner was used to register the Sealed Decks for the main event! We all noticed that the main Sealed event finished up uncommonly early, but it wasn’t until we spoke to the ChannelFireball team that we realized that our technology was responsible.

This was also our first event with the new executive team. We were anticipating a great show, but we didn't imagine how well it would actually go. It was great to meet so many Insider and ION subscribers in person, and equally awesome to welcome some new ones to the QS family.  

We had been planning to do a really amazing future-tech demo at the Grand Prix, but some issues with the on-site internet forced us to reconsider.  After evaluating the situation, we decided to do the demo somewhere with a reliable connection rather than risk a mediocre demo.

Now that the dust has settled, we do have announcements that we can make – including an update on the tech demo. Here are some of the exciting new things we're rolling out:

Welcome to QS 2.0

Content

Part of the next stage in the evolution of QS is our content. As the premier data-driven and finance-focused site in the Magic space, we recognize that our content model has become somewhat myopic. While you're keeping up to date on the latest price spikes, charts and trends, it's easy to miss the big picture that, at the end of it all, this is still about the game we all love. We've come to realize that in the rapidly changing world of Magic: The Gathering, we're missing opportunities to help people play more Magic.

To that end, we're implementing an expanded content plan to help inform and educate more players on how to best navigate the MTG economy. From the kid who simply wants to be able to afford a Commander deck, to the Magic Online grinder, to the trader who wants to best manage his collection, to, yes, even the most savvy of MTG investors, we want our content to help the most players possible.

You'll still be receiving all the great weekly articles you receive from our current team, but I'm excited to announce that we are proactively adding new voices. Please welcome to the team...

  • Morgan Wentworth: Morgan is an incredibly talented, multifaceted content creator, and we've been following her work for a while. She's created content for us before, and we’re thrilled to have her as a regular contributor now. She'll be writing weekly articles, recording videos and doing some streaming. She will also be joining Chaz and me as a new host with the QS Cast. This will bring a fresh voice to the program, and I can't wait to hear her perspective week to week. Morgan also writes for Gathering Magic.
  • Jake and Joel: Some of you are already familiar with their growing YouTube channel, Jake and Joel are Magic. If not, you should definitely check it out. They've done a variety of finance-focused videos, so we're recruiting them to do more for QS. We're really excited to pair their "entertainment industry" style with our data-driven focus.
  • Kyle Rusciano: You may not have heard of Kyle and, in fact, neither had we...until he cold-submitted an incredibly detailed data piece about Magic Online. We were so impressed with his work that we decided to bring Kyle on staff. He will be producing articles specifically about Magic Online, something our Insiders have been increasingly requesting. We look forward to cultivating Kyle's talent and watching him grow. We've already launched a couple of his pieces, which can be found here and here.

We can't wait to see what these new producers bring to the site! As we continue to evolve the content strategy and explore new areas to help players, you'll be seeing more new faces join the content team.

Logo

As we're continuing to move into the evolution of QS, we decided the company needed a new look. As we begin to work with more clients at a larger scale, it's important that QS represent its professionalism accordingly. Part of that representation is our logo. You may have seen it in on our t-shirts and booth banner in Vegas, but if not, here is the new logo for Quiet Speculation:

QSlogo

The logo will be rolled out and integrated with the new homepage, which brings me to....

The Website

The current website is beginning to show its age, both in form and function. While we pride ourselves on our data and tools more than flash and aesthetics, we recognize that the QS interface is due for an upgrade. So we're doing just that. Soon you will see an entirely new, polished experience, and I'm excited to give you a little tease of some of the current prototypes:

sampleQShomepage

sampleQShomepage2

Pretty cool, right? The final design is still in development, but we wanted to provide a peek into what you can expect. We're targeting Q3 for final rollout of the new website. Now, let's take a step deeper into the site and talk about...

Trader Tools

Our financial tools are some of the best features about QS. Trader Tools offers collection import, spread comparisons and pricing data as some of our best service offerings. I can personally say I've pushed it to the limits during some big purchases and sales, and other power-users have reported doing the same.

As Kelly mentioned in his first AMA, the codebase he wrote for TT years ago is in serious need of an overhaul.

So that's exactly what is happening. With Tyler taking the reins as CTO, we have already begun digging deep into our infrastructure and upgrading key pieces.  The upgrades will occur in pieces and modules throughout the second half of 2017, and we will release usable pieces as they are ready to be beta-tested. The final vision is an even more customizable and robust Trader Tools. It should serve as a one-stop shop to handle all your pricing and financial needs.

While this is happening, we're still adding vendors to make sure you have the most accurate pricing data possible. For example, did you notice this?

cfbisinTT

That's right, ChannelFireball is now part of the Trader Tools pricing database! This adds an incredibly valuable data set to our platform, and we're super excited to have their pricing available for you. Big thanks to Jon and Alexander and the team for partnering up with us!  

ION Scanner Rebrand

When we debuted the ION Scanner, we offered up a basic version to Insider subscribers and a more advanced version to our business customers.  Previously these had been named Core and Pro, respectively. After seeing some confusion among customers, we’re clarifying the names.

We're rebranding our ION Core and ION Pro plans as ION Scanner Basic and ION Scanner Advanced. QS Insiders will continue to have ION Scanner Basic plans included with your subscriptions, allowing you to scan your cards into Trader Tools or simply check their prices across our database, all without ever typing a thing.

For more heavily invested parties – vendors, stores, large-scale speculators, and dedicated hobbyists – we have ION Scanner Advanced. Subscribers at the Advanced level should stay tuned, because we've got big plans for expanding the ION brand for this audience. For example...

Welcome Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon to the ION Family!

At GenCon last August, we had many customer ask us when we’d add these two games to the ION Scanner.  Our commitment was “by GenCon 2017,” and we’re thrilled to say that we were able to get it done far sooner! The most recent release of ION Scanner Advanced will include these two games, with price data from Troll And Toad to start.  We’ll discuss more about this in an upcoming ION Scanner release announcement.

The Big Tech Reveal

Everyone has been asking Kelly: "What about the tech you got us excited about for Vegas?" Well, frustratingly, the demo for it was the primary victim of the convention center WiFi. However, Kelly will be recording a follow-up video to reveal it soon, piece by piece.


There you go, friends. Those are some of the cool things we have in store for QS! New content, a new website and a host of updated features. As someone helping guide this next chapter in QS, its story never ceases to amaze me. From its grassroots beginning as Kelly's basement blog to the slick updates I've discussed here today, QS continues to evolve as a unique and premium content hub for MTG. Thank you so much for joining us in this journey, and I look forward to seeing what the future holds!

GG,
Tarkan Dospil

Insider: Welcoming the New QS/ION Technology Team!

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Dear Insiders,

Over the years, we have grown from my one-man blog to a multi-faceted software company. When we began, I was just a hacker learning how to write PHP code for a cool Magic project, and somewhere along the lines, that series of hacks turned into code that over a thousand people rely on every day.

While I'm competent at building software, I am not the correct person to build it to scale to the level we're at (nor the level to which we aspire). For over five years, I have been wearing the dual hat of CEO and CTO. And unfortunately, when priorities have been forced, CEO duties have taken precedence.

Today, I am glad to finally reveal that we have resolved this by adding a proper CTO to the team. Before I expand on that, I want to explain where we've come from and why we've ended up where we are right now.

When I started building Trader Tools, my vision was for a beautiful abstraction layer above the "rest" of the Magic finance internet. It was the tool to bring together all tools – no dogma (e.g., Mac vs. PC) or exclusion/inclusion (e.g., only stores in {x} region). A purely platform-agnostic tool that interfaced with whatever you needed it to.

Along the way, we exploded into a real company and my output as a developer couldn't keep up without neglecting my duties as the leader of the company. Somewhere along the line, the vision faded, replaced by endless nights of dissecting code to figure out why something wasn't working the way it should.

This duality has manifested itself in what can only be described as gentle, long-term decay of our core technology stack. At the very core of this is a double-edged sword: we grew too large, too fast. What we have needed for years has been a proper Chief Technology Officer, one that is not a self-taught coder trying to bring a glorified hobby project up to par.

I am proud to announce today that we have finally done so, and in the best way possible: from within. Effective immediately, Tyler Tyssedal will be the CTO of QuietSpeculation.com. Tyler first joined our team years ago as a copy editor, where his job was to find stray punctuation marks and make sure submissions were logical and flowed nicely.

From there, he morphed into a content manager, then to our managing editor. Somewhere along the line, he also became a front-end developer to complement my back-end skills. Somewhat poetically, he has returned to his roots: ferreting out stray punctuation marks in code and ensuring that our software is logical and flows nicely. The more things change, the more they stay the same.... Beyond that, however, Tyler has full-stack enterprise experience, developing in a variety of languages and on many different platforms.

A proper CTO is the first and most crucial step in the process of bringing our software stack up to par again. The second step is empowering our new executive with a team that can... execute!

Over the past months, the critiques of Trader Tools have grown more vocal, and rightfully so. The software is simply in a condition that neither we nor you find acceptable, and we have brought on a proper tech team to make that right.

Along with Tyler's promotion to CTO, we have bolstered the team of developers that report to him. This includes back-end (making things work right), front-end (making things look right) and operations (making people work right).

There is a saying in engineering: "Good, Fast, Cheap – Pick Two."

We are now, for the first time, in a position as a company to opt for good and fast over cheap.

In practical terms, this means stuff is going to get fixed – and fast. Believe me when I say that no one gets more frustrated than I do when our software doesn't work. When I think of the beautiful vision of what Trader Tools can and should be, it frustrates me that we haven't yet built that out. You, the Insider that is reading this right now, deserve the vision that I've been dreaming of.

This is very different than previous promises of "we're working on it." "Working on it" once meant working slowly and steadily, with a management structure that wasn't truly empowered to turn up the gas and get things done. The difference now is that we have a full technology team stacked up against this issue and the resources to power it. The vision remains the same at its core, but it is being implemented in a more experienced, evolved and modernized way.

You can expect regular updates on the state of these projects as well as a more transparent feedback loop. Right now, bugs and suggestions come in from all corners of the internet. Going forward, we're going to keep things simple: just send an email to bugs@quietspeculation.com and it will get parsed into our project management system!

I want to close this letter by once again thanking you, the Insider, for being a part of what we've built. I speak for the entire team when I say we're excited for you to be a part of what is to come.

Always at your service,

–Kelly B. Reid
CEO, Quiet Speculation & ION

Insider: MTGO Market Report for June 28th, 2017

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 27, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although both Aether Revolt (AER) and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

june27

Standard

The best indicator for paper prices is the TCGplayer mid price, since it doesn't include the low prices that make up for it with expensive shipping. Looking at each set currently in Standard, they are down in price in the past week and over the past month. Clearly the summer lull is in, though the pending release of Hour of Devastation (HOU) will inject a little excitement into the format.

On the digital side of things, Amonkhet (AKH) reached a price bottom a couple of weeks ago at 45 tix. The recorded price this week is 50 tix, while at the time this article will be published the price will be closer to 55 tix. There's no doubt in my mind that buyers have been snapping up AKH singles and sets near the end of triple AKH drafting. This also coincides with the popular Vintage Cube draft, which is reducing the amount of AKH drafts that would be firing otherwise. Once HOU hits MTGO, there will be a renewed supply of AKH into the market, and this might be the next best buying opportunity.

Looking at the chart below will crystallize what has happened. An AKH set started at a lower price than any of the last four large sets, and it has also dropped to a lower price in its first nine weeks of being available. The timing of the price bottom on AKH almost matches Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Kaladesh (KLD), while Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) continues to look like an anomaly.

AKH

Another interesting aspect of this chart is the path of KLD. The last point on the chart corresponds to this week's prices for KLD only. As KLD reaches a new all-time high, it's impossible to tell how the end of redemption for this set has affected its price. Although not on the chart, Aether Revolt (AER) has not suffered a steep drop and is basically flat since the end of redemption.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Kiran

This is good news for those who are interested in speculating on AKH sets since it suggests the holding window could be extended past October and into the winter. With redemption on AKH ending in November, it would be great to see where AKH prices get to over the winter, since that is the regular period where prices peak in Standard.

Standard Boosters

AKH booster prices have dipped in the past week for two reasons. Vintage Cube Draft is a popular alternative Draft format, so players have been willing to sell any excess boosters they own in order to enter this queue. With AKH being the current Draft format, the price of AKH boosters has taken the biggest hit and they now sit at 2.4 tix, dropping from 3.0 tix last week. On top of this shift, there is also the extra prizes being awarded for the fifteenth anniversary of MTGO, which has added extra supply of AKH boosters into the market, even further depressing prices.

Once HOU hits and Vintage Cube Draft is retired, demand for AKH boosters will pick up, but the shift from triple AKH Draft to HOU-HOU-AKH Draft will have the opposite effect. The overall impact is hard to predict. If you are a player that is out of AKH boosters, picking up a few at current prices is prudent, but speculators should be more wary. Prices may remain flat over the next few weeks. Without a clear signal and with no historical precedent to fall back on, speculating on AKH boosters should be avoided at this time.

Checking in on the other Standard draft format, a draft set of KLD block continues selling for 8.3 tix despite the availability of Vintage Cube Draft. On top of the low spreads for these two boosters, this is an excellent signal that the market is supply constrained. If there was excess supply, we would have seen a price dip as players sold their boosters in order to enter the Vintage Cube Draft queues. Thus, any incremental demand will drive prices higher and I would not expect a price dip when HOU hits the market. The price target on a draft set of from KLD block remains 9 tix and is within striking distance.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I took the plunge and started buying sets of AKH. Although I didn't time the bottom perfectly, it's just fine to be approximately right when speculating on MTGO, especially for low-risk bets such as full sets, where prices are more stable in the long term. Buying AKH sets relies on the fact that fresh supply of cards from this set will be reduced by two-thirds once HOU is added into the Draft mix. With redemption still available for the set, we are at peak suppl, so prices can be expected to be flat to rising as the summer stretches out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rhonas the Indomitable

The payoff for this strategy will be seen in October, when Standard rotates and the metagame undergoes a huge shift. This inevitably leads to price spikes as the market adjusts to the new metagame. Although the safest selling window will be the end of October, while AKH is still available for redemption, the best selling window might be after that. It will be interesting to observe how the prices of KLD, AER, AKH, and HOU evolve in the winter. I expect that the best selling window for all of these sets will end up being the typical Standard price peak observed in the December 2017 to March 2018 period.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

View More By Matthew Lewis

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, MTGO, MTGO Market ReportLeave a Comment on Insider: MTGO Market Report for June 28th, 2017

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: Looking for Spikey Specs in New Standard

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

We are on the brink of full-fledged Hour of Devastation spoiler season madness. Seriously, it's coming and it's going to be great. I've enjoyed Amonkhet more than most of the recent releases and I have high hopes that HOD will continue the parade of good feelings and fun. I mean, mummies and gods, and cats, oh my!

Today I'd like to take a look at a few of the Standard cards that could easily be poised to be big winners in the new Standard metagame with Hour of Devastation looming large on the horizon. The recent banning of Aetherworks Marvel has drastically shaken up the landscape of the metagame and this transition will be speedily thrown into hyperdrive with the release of the new set.

A few things to keep in mind: for the first time in a long time Standard will not be dominated by the prevalence of an absurd combo deck (at least in theory). Aetherworks Marvel and Felidar Guardian have gone bye-bye and I expect we will transition back into a world where various flavors of midrange and aggressive decks reclaim the throne. Which is a big part of my strategy for investing in the format.

Now that I've said Standard will likely be all about creatures let's get to my first speculation target, and all-out combo card!

There was an error retrieving a chart for New Perspectives
There was an error retrieving a chart for Shadow of the Grave

If there is going to be a combo deck in Standard my thought is that it will be this deck. As far as combo decks go, it's obviously worse than Marvel or Guardian. However, there is a lot of room for a deck to be good even if it is worse than what came before. Keep in mind the other two decks needed to be banned for power level—being worse than those two combos still leaves a lot of room for competitive viability.

It is very possible that in a predominantly midrangey format a combo deck like New Perspectives could actually be well positioned. There is also a chance that it gains some nice new pieces in Hour of Devastation.

The thing that I like about these cards as speculation targets is that they are literally dirt-cheap. Not only that, but the rest of the deck is also dirt-cheap which makes it a nice deck for players looking to buy into Standard (assuming it is good).

One reason I think it might be good is that the deck performed reasonably well at Pro Tour Amonkhet. Obviously, the format warped around beating combo decks like Marvel after the PT. However, with Marvel out of the picture it could be a great time to play a combo deck like New Perspectives. In theory, people will be less inclined to play counterspells, which are the natural predator of a deck like Perspectives.

The high ceiling and low buy-in price make these combo cogs a very spicy place to get some dollars in.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fatal Push

In a world potentially dominated by creature matches and board position, Fatal Push will continue to be a hot commodity. The card has single-handedly reshaped Modern according to its will, and is positioned to become an even bigger player in Standard with the release of Hour of Devastation.

I don't think we've seen the ceiling for Fatal Push yet. The card is expensive for an uncommon, but it's one of the great uncommons. It's good enough to see play in every format where it is currently legal, and will do so until they print a better version (which seems highly unlikely).

I can't even imagine a deck that plays Swamp in Standard that won't be packing four copies of this card in the 75. It is especially useful to note that two-drop creatures are likely to define Standard. Zombies, BG, Temur Energy, RG Beats—most of these decks live and die by their two-drops and blasting one away for one mana on the draw is backbreaking.

I've been stocking up on these and expect to get a profitable return in the coming weeks.

Speaking of two drops...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Longtusk Cub

Another spicy uncommon, the Longtusk Cub, is another place where I expect to gain some value. The card is pure gasoline in Standard. An unanswered Cub quickly takes over a game and brings the beatdown like few others can.

The Temur Energy shell has long been one of the most powerful options available in Standard. One of the weird things about Energy was that there were always better or alternative ways to build the deck in the past. Copy Cat, Marvel, etc.

Now, I have a strong inclination to believe that the deck will be an aggressive/midrange deck that brings early pressure. Regardless of whether you are playing RUG Energy or Golgari Energy, four copies of Longtusk Cub are bound to be a staple. It also helps that since the Marvel decks didn't play Cub that there will be a lot of people looking to pick up Cubs who don't own them already. Cub is cheap now, but will likely become more expensive as the format takes shape during spoiler season.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Flayer

Another wicked two-drop, the Grim Flayer. One of the biggest obstacles that held BG in check was the dominance of combo decks. Those obstacles have largely been removed. I think there is a pretty good chance that BG Delirium makes a surge back in the coming weeks.

The deck is powerful and quite effective at countering opposing aggressive decks such as Zombies or Mardu Vehicles. It could be a powerful player in the new metagame. I like Flayer as an investment because it has already proven itself as a Modern-worthy playable staple.

I know that Jund and Abzan Midrange have fallen out of favor with the rise of Death's Shadow. But I'd also like to keep in mind that decks like Grixis Shadow are beginning to push the limit of what constitutes an acceptable win percentage in Modern. We are clearly not there yet, but there is the possibility that new printings or bannings could push the reset button on Modern at some point in the not-so-distant future, and return BGx decks to the top of the heap.

Ultimately, my pick is rooted in the fact that Grim Flayer appears positioned to become better in Standard, but the Modern angle plays as well. Lastly, Grim Flayer is cheaper than it has ever been. Obviously, this is part of the natural life cycle of a Standard card, but they are cheap and could spike at the Pro Tour. Something to think about.

Speaking of delirium...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ishkanah, Grafwidow
There was an error retrieving a chart for Traverse the Ulvenwald

The delirium shell could be well primed for a comeback and the other pieces could stand to gain as well. Ishkanah is very cheap right now and could be a serious player in Standard moving forward. Copy Cat and Marvel were always the obstacle standing in its way and those barriers are down now. You can't tap out for a spider guy against a deck with a win-the-game combo!

Now, grinding people out with an endless swarm of spiders could be a serious thing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winding Constrictor
There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdurous Gearhulk

The +1/+1 counters theme is also an interesting place to be in Standard. Verdurous Gearhulk and Winding Constrictor have very little value but could be extremely ubiquitous cards in the format. Both are extremely powerful and the BG Counters deck has undeniable synergy power to run people over. It could get more pieces as well. As far as Standard cards go, these are easily in the top crust of cards that I'd like to own right now because they have room to grow.

Last but not least, here's my slam-dunk pick:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Toolcraft Exemplar

Mardu Vehicles is going to be great. I mean, seriously, how could it not be? It's been one of the best decks all along on power level alone. I see no reason why it wouldn't continue to be insane.

Toolcraft is one of the best cards in Standard. It hits hard. It crews like a boss. It avalanches games out of control in the decks where it fits. It's also extremely cheap right now. If Mardu Vehicles is a good deck in Standard (duh, obv) the card should continue to creep up in price and make us money. I've been pulling these out of $0.50 and "three for a dollar" boxes at Grand Prix like crazy. What kind of a fool would give this up for 33 cents when they are so obviously going to be great for the next year!?

~

I'm seriously getting excited about new Standard. The Aetherworks Marvel experience is over. No more spinning the wheel to determine the outcome of matches. I love the Egyptian theme and can't wait for the prerelease and the Pro Tour. Also, I can't wait to hopefully cash in on some of these Standard picks!

Enjoy the spoilers, folks!

The Shadow Over Modern

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I was planning to write a general guide to beating the top decks in Modern, as alluded to last week. However, my discussion kept circling back to Death's Shadow. Every time I talked about how various decks were constructed, it inevitably involved Shadow. The strategy discussion? Even as I described picking apart Counters Company with Lightning Bolt, my thinking returned to Death's Shadow.

Once I noticed this, I couldn't stop noticing it, couldn't stop puzzling about it, and now I'm perturbed by it. The metagame and Death's Shadow have become inextricable in my mind. I've been trying to unravel how this happened, but it just seems to be me chasing my own tail. Care to join me as I work my way through?

Luis Scott-Vargas recently set off a firestorm with his call to ban Death's Shadow. Agree with him or no, a Hall of Famer making such an unequivocal statement is significant. His argument is that Grixis Shadow is too efficient and resilient for Modern, and it is gradually going to take over. It plays a lot of one-mana disruption and wins with one-mana beefsticks. You have to set them up, but that really isn't a problem for Grixis. The anti-ban crowd is up in arms over this video, despite LSV making it clear that Shadow doesn't actually require a ban.

I am conflicted. On the one hand, I agree with LSV's points about Grixis Shadow. On the other, there doesn't appear to be a problem. I see some troubling signs, but it is far too early to be definitive.

The Looming Shadow

I've been over this a number of times, but I'll say it again just to be clear. Grixis Shadow is the best deck in Modern. The evidence is pretty overwhelming. The fact that it didn't put a copy into the Vegas Top 8 is beside the point. The deck is powerful, reasonably resilient, and relatively consistent. I've compared it to Legacy Grixis Delver, which is also on top of the Legacy metagame. By itself, this is not a problem. It is natural for there to be a best deck in any format, and for that to prove especially true while the deck is relatively new. We've seen it before with Tron, Bant Eldrazi, and Infect. Eventually, the metagame will respond, answers will be found (assuming you're not in Standard and they just don't exist), and other decks will regain ground.

However, one cannot count on that happening every time. The Counterbalance/Sensei's Diving Top lock had existed in Legacy for years but never really took off until Terminus was printed. It quickly established itself as a powerhouse, particularly in the hands of Joe Lossett. In 2014, it was recognized as the format's boogeyman. By 2015, Miracles was the unchallenged best deck in Legacy. And there it sat until Top was banned earlier this year for being the best deck, year in and year out. Was there movement, diversity, and innovation during its reign? Certainly, but always in the context of improving your Miracles matchup. While Legacy was mostly healthy, the format was clearly warped, and all decks orbited Miracles. Ultimately, this is the concern with Shadow. Not that it's too powerful, but that it is warping Modern.

Why Shadow?

As I've said, Grixis Shadow most resembles a Legacy deck. It is based on being as efficient as possible and plays as many one-mana spells as possible. Much of the deck is interactive, with full sets of Thoughtseize and Fatal Push in every deck alongside some number of Stubborn Denial, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Terminate, with Snapcaster Mage to double up on interactivity. This isn't a problem by itself—players like interactive decks. It's one of the great appeals of Magic. Shadow intends to shred its opponent's hand with discard, then drop a 5/5 or thereabout for one black mana and ride it to victory. A generally fair strategy.

The problem with all of this is speed. The interaction is very one-sided in most matchups. Shadow is proactively disrupting your gameplan, either by breaking up your win condition or invalidating your answers. As a result, Shadow almost always decides how the game will be played. If they can clear the way for an early win, they will do so. If they cannot win quickly, they'll simply grind you out. This flexibility and information advantage was seen before, when Gitaxian Probe was in Infect. Combine the cheap interaction with the information, and the fact that all of this is filling the graveyard for Gurmag Angler to come down as early as turn two, and it becomes very hard for decks to actually play against Shadow.

Is This a Problem?

I don't know. On the one hand, I like the fact that the best deck in Modern is an interactive one. This isn't like Infect or Amulet Bloom, ships sailing past their opponent in the night. Interactivity and actual gameplay is a good thing. The question is whether or not it's too good a thing. It is hard to match the proactivity of Grixis Shadow, and as a result, even answer-heavy control decks can find themselves scrambling for answers on a very fast clock. Shadow simply picks their hands clean of answers, then asks if they can find more before dying. It is possible, but it feels like they're warping themselves to fit into Grixis Shadow's orbit. That's worrying.

Does Difficulty Matter?

One of the arguments that keeps coming up against a ban is that Grixis Shadow is a hard deck to play correctly that rewards skill. This means that only those players who are actually good are winning with the deck, and that the format should reward skill. This strikes me as extremely elitist and fairly facetious, but I will concede that the deck is hard to play well and that small sequencing errors often decide games. However, everyone said the same thing about Amulet Bloom and it was still banned. Miracles was also very hard to pilot correctly and dominated for years. It didn't matter that Joe Lossett could resolve his Top activations in less than a second or that it had taken him years to get to that point. What mattered was the impact of the deck itself on the format.

As a result, I don't believe that the difficulty of a deck should factor into ban considerations. Very hard decks may never put up the numbers to warrant a banning, but they can still be unacceptable. Amulet Bloom certainly was a very powerful deck that really didn't play Magic, but it was so easy to misplay with it and lose that fewer players sleeved it up than "should have." The real question is not how well the cream does, but the normal milk. If average players can pilot a deck well enough to consistently win, and the best make it look easy, we have a problem. Don't fixate on the perceived difficulty; ask yourself if the deck is powerful enough that even when you don't play optimally you will still consistently pull through. I don't think Shadow is there, but I feel like I should be adding yet onto that statement.

Is the Format Just a Satellite?

The real concern for me is the format becoming defined by Shadow the way Legacy was by Miracles. Is the deck beatable? Absolutely. Do you have to adapt your gameplan because of Shadow's existence? Maybe. The impact is hard to see in the wider metagame, but I do see it in the other decks I intended to discuss today. The fact that I am seeing it at all does set off the warning bells. Remember, Splinter Twin similarly demanded that you adapt to its presence or die, and that was banned. I didn't agree with the decision, but that was Wizards' justification.

Counters Company

The new Counters Company deck has eclipsed Abzan Company. Utilizing the Vizier of Remedies/Devoted Druid infinite mana combo in tandem with the Kitchen Finks/Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit/Viscera Seer infinite life combo appears to have greatly improved the deck by turning it into a dedicated creature-combo deck. It was formerly a Gavony Township beatdown deck that sometimes won via combo. The deck has finally started putting up results after months of sliding down the metagame charts, but I don't actually believe that's the new combo's doing. At least against the decks I play, Counters Company is much worse than Abzan Company.

Abzan and Counters Company inhabited different worlds, and as a result, the Counters deck is far more fragile than Abzan could be, even though it wins (outright wins, not the functional infinite-life win) on turn three far more often than Abzan ever did. Notably, Lightning Bolt is at an all-time low because it's ineffective against Grixis Shadow. Abzan Company was full of Tarmogoyfs and Wall of Roots to dodge Bolt, which forced it to play a slower, value-based game.

Counters is filled with excellent Bolt targets, but it doesn't matter because nobody plays Bolt. Death's Shadow has forced players to play hard removal instead, which limits the options to Path to Exile, Fatal Push, and Terminate. This shift makes the formerly unimpressive creature combo a far more attractive plan than ever before. All thanks to Grixis Shadow.

Eldrazi Tron

Similarly to Company decks, Eldrazi Tron has replaced traditional Gx Tron as Modern's big-mana deck. Dropping hordes of undercosted spaghetti monsters early is a really good strategy. Couple this with the power of Chalice of the Void and supersized Walking Ballistas and you've got a powerhouse... that is in many ways worse than Gx Tron.

Tron was terrifying because you could always lose to the top of their deck. Even if you survived the initial bomb, Tron had so much land search and cantrips that they would find more and more until you could take no more. The deck could shrink itself so rapidly that you'd be facing just bomb after bomb very quickly. Eldrazi Tron can't do that; it only has a few Mind Stones and Expedition Maps. As a result, if you survive the initial onslaught, Eldrazi Tron struggles to recover.

The key to Eldrazi Tron's success is Chalice being good. Modern has traditionally had too high a curve for Chalice to really be effective. The key cards always cost two or more and Chalice is only outstanding when you're shutting down one-mana spells. While every deck had some, they weren't particularly important. The fact that you can't readily Chalice on turn one is another factor.

Grixis Shadow is built around one-mana spells, and its efficiency is encouraging other decks to follow suit. This means that Chalice has plenty to prey on, and if you have impressive enough follow-ups you can lock your opponent. The fact that Eldrazi Tron is based on creatures rather than planeswalkers is another consideration, since Gx Tron is really hurt by Stubborn Denial. I don't think Eldrazi Tron is actually better than traditional Tron, but it possesses the right tools for a Shadow metagame.

Affinity

Every Shadow deck plays a full set of Fatal Push, and some number of Kolaghan's Command and Terminate. Two years ago, everyone assumed that this combination in the new Grixis Control lists spelled the end of Affinity. They were wrong. This belief led to players cutting their Affinity hate, and the result was one of the best seasons the robots ever experienced. The thinking came full circle in Las Vegas. Between the rise of Grixis and the belief that the format had just passed it by, everyone had simply written Affinity off. This came back to bite everyone and three Affinity decks made Top 8. Whether this will be sustained is an open debate, but what isn't is that Affinity benefited from the focus on Grixis Shadow. It was one of my sideboarding rules for a reason: don't assume others will take care of Affinity for you.

Burn

Burn has been a Tier 1 deck for a long time. This isn't surprising in a world of fetch/shockland manabases. However, a lot of previously good matchups have disappeared, and you'd think that Burn would drop off. Jund was good for Burn, as was Gx Tron, and both are now gone. In their place, Chalice decks and combo decks have risen, and neither are good news for Burn. Yet the deck remains top-tier and arguably the third or fourth best deck, thanks to Grixis Shadow. Burn is not vulnerable to discard and preys on decks that self-harm. Now that Burn players are adjusting their sideboards with Shadow in mind, they're able to take advantage of the meta and are arguably keeping Shadow in check.

What Does It Mean?

Everything I've said suggests that Shadow is beginning to warp Modern around itself. Card choices are being made specifically because the deck exists, and deck shares are rising and falling based largely on their Shadow matchup. This is indicative of a Miracles-like metagame forming. On the other hand, it is far too early to tell. The deck has only existed a few months; it took years for the impact of Miracles to crystalize in Legacy. For all I or anyone knows, it might be temporary. In a few months, Shadow may be dethroned as players develop the strategies necessary to cope. The PPTQ season begins soon, and I suspect those results will really determine whether Shadow has what it takes, or if this was all hype and confusion.

LSV mentioned that new cards may well tip the scales on Grixis Shadow. This is always possible, and we haven't seen all of Hour of Devastation or Ixalan yet. I don't think that Claim // Fame is that card, as it's very similar to Orzhov Charm and that really didn't catch on for Shadow players. Still, we need to wait and see.

On an unrelated note, I have a question for any Gifts Storm players out there: is the transformative sideboard with Madcap Experiment and Platinum Emperion any good? The split between that and traditional sideboards seems even. I'm comfortable enough with the Storm maindeck to start my experimentation with Preordain but I need to work out the sideboard. Any insight on this front is appreciated.

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation