Battle Better: Blocking Tricks and Defeating Sieges in MOM

Posted on April 28, 2023April 28, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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Sometimes the secret of a Draft format glimmers in the smallest details.

Consider the combat trick Arachnoid Adaptation. Combat tricks are typically optimized during attacks. We want to use them when our opponent's mana is down to avoid being blown out by instant-speed interaction.

The granted keyword reach, however, does nothing for attacks. Had it been trample or menace, it would clearly lean towards being an aggressive card. First strike and deathtouch are abilities that are good on either side of combat. Yet March of the Machine's (MOM) best-performing combat trick is designed as a defensive card.

In our preview article, we discussed the expected impact of battles. It was hard to overlook a new card type being introduced to the game. These cards suggest a snowballing format, where aggression leverages into board advantage. However, the format's emergency brake for this specific issue has defined game play. This best interaction in this format are defensive cards, or "blocking" spells.

Block party

These cards are designed to play defense. They are designed to protect battles. They've stymied aggression early in the format. The convoke instants accentuate this aspect of gameplay, as creatures hanging back to block can tap to cast them. Stoke the Flames, for example, plays well on offense or defense. While this card has a pedigree of being extremely aggressive, especially in constructed, it might be better on defense in MOM Limited. When our creatures attack, they can't convoke. When they're back on defense, they pull double-duty, as mana sources and as red zone participants.

All of these effects advantage the defender. The result is clear. Flipping battles is more difficult than we may have expected.

Are Battles a Bust?

Battles still have a place, but the aggressive decks struggle to optimize them. RG, the archetype designed to utilize battles, has struggled mightily. It's tied for the second-worst-performing deck, and its struggles are at the heart of what it's fundamentally trying to do.

Because of the potency of the defensive cards, it's hard for two-drops to earn their place. While Thrashing Frontliner, War-Trained Slasher, and War Historian look like potent attackers relative to the offerings of earlier expansions, they don't match up well with the format's interaction. And when they get hit, they don't leave behind any value.

RG wants to apply pressure, specifically to battles. However, the battles don't support that pressure, at least not on the front side. The differing goals of aggro creatures and value battles greatly dilute the deck's plans and cripple the archetype.

No pressure

So many of the RG battles don't help the central gameplan. By flipping these cards, pilots get an additional attacker, oftentimes one with impressive stats. However, if we're going to play this slower, grindier strategy, we need to win on the first surge, and then win again when it comes to actually finishing off our opponents. It's simply more work than ignoring battles and winning once, when it counts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Invasion of Muraganda // Primordial Plasm

Invasion of Muraganda // Primordial Plasm actually does support the RG game plan. It's a combat trick that leaves behind a counter, and we can leverage those abilities to flip a battle the turn we play it. Of all the tools RG has, this is the one of the most important non-rares to the archetype's stated goals.

Battles Are Game Pieces, Not Side Quests

RG wants to pressure battles, but unfortunately, the battles don't really help the deck do so. Conversely, UB wants to grind out games with card advantage, something the Siege battles happen to be great for.

UB Battles 7-2

Creatures

1 Aetherblade Agent

1 Baral, Chief of Compliance

1 Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive

1 Ichor Shade

1 Nezumi Freewheeler // Hideous Fleshwheeler

1 Halo-Charged Skaab

1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

2 Phyrexian Gargantua

Sorceries

1 Traumatic Revelation

2 Eyes of Gitaxias

Instants

1 Assimilate Essence

1 Final Flourish

2 Collective Nightmare

2 Deadly Derision

1 Meeting of Minds

1 Merciless Repurposing

Battles

1 Invasion of Amonkhet // Lazotep Convert

1 Invasion of Vryn // Overloaded Mage-Ring

1 Invasion of Fiora // Marchesa, Resolute Monarch

Land

1 Dismal Backwater

1 Scoured Barrens

8 Island

7 Swamp

The battles here have a specific purpose. Our deck wants to grind out our opponents, and these effects all contribute to that gameplan. In the above deck, Yorion, Sky Nomad flickering my battles coerced more concessions than I ever could predict. Invasion of Vryn // Overloaded Mage-Ring is good because, in this archetype, Sift would be good.

While this deck got absurd advantage from the legendary rare, UB has a number of reasonable attackers that can pressure battles. Preening Champion, Aetherblade Agent, and Order of the Alabaster Host all do a good job pressuring battles. Furthermore, this deck doesn't need these battles defeated immediately. When RG leaves a battle on the field, it becomes harder for them to flip it later on. As RG falls behind in the resource war, their attacks get weaker. As UB begins to snowball value, our attacks grow stronger.

Being Aggressive With Battles

When it comes to successfully flipping battles, RG decks should consider some unconventional options like Kitesail to pair with the better commons like Chomping Kavu and Volcanic Spite. We also want to make sure that we're playing an appropriate number of battles. In personal experience, an excess of four battles has caused decks to feel bloated and clunky. More importantly, however, are the battles we choose to play. Because so few of RG's battles impact the board in a synergistic way, we should prioritize the cheap ones. While Invasion of Mercadia // Kyren Flamewright doesn't exactly pressure an opponent, playing it with a second spell to set up an attack that turn can lead to an easy flip.

These numbers are impressive for an archetype that wins below 55% of the time. Invasion of Zendikar // Awakened Skyclave is just a very strong card in the format, allowing us to actually get ahead of our opponents, which this strategy struggles to do. With more mana, we access our splash cards and can cast more powerful creatures, allowing us to defeat more battles and eventually create an insurmountable advantage.

Unfortunately, we can't really build around a highly-sought-after uncommon. There is a scarcity of on-plan battles, and all of them are at uncommon or rare. It's difficult to capitalize on an archetype when it faces that type of obstacle, a fact that contributes to RG's lacking numbers.

Choosing Wisely

Aggressive decks can still capitalize on battles, but because of their scarcity, we need to get a little more creative. This RB Battle deck performed well for a couple of reasons. What do you notice about its battles?

RB Battles 5-3

Creatures

2 Scorn-Blade Berserker

1 Dreg Recycler

1 Pyretic Prankster // Glistening Goremonger

2 Thrashing Frontliner

1 Compleated Huntmaster

1 Harried Artisan // Phyrexian Skyflayer

1 Etched Familiar

1 Redcap Heelslasher

1 Furnace Host Charger

Sorceries

2 Wrenn's Resolve

1 Render Inert

2 Eyes of Gitaxias

Instants

1 Vanquish the Weak

2 Deadly Derision

Artifact

1 Bladed Battle-Fan

Battles

1 Invasion of Azgol // Ashen Reaper

1 Invasion of Mercadia // Kyren Flamewright

1 Invasion of Tarkir // Defiant Thundermaw

Land

8 Mountain

8 Swamp

This deck's battles are all cheap and on-plan. They help us play a low-to-the-ground, aggressive strategy. Two of them are removal spells that flip; the other one is a Tormenting Voice. All three are great at ending the game once flipped.

The two-drops are supported to help pressure battles and we had solid removal. And Render Inert was surprisingly strong. Killing a big incubate token gives it utility when we have no battle in play. Unfortunately, it is devastatingly easy to accidentally select zero counters. Still bitter about that one.

However, this build also had some weaknesses. Dreg Recycler and Compleated Huntmaster are filler without more support. Wrenn's Resolve sometimes felt a little too small-ball, but was generally fine. In short, it could have used some power. A Stoke the Flames, Volcanic Spite or Fearless Skald might have pushed me into 7 wins.

Key Questions

Battles are exciting. They promise a tantalizing upside. Value and a creature? Sign me up! But Magic is not played in a vacuum. Value is only valuable when it can be leveraged to win the game. A creature is only an asset if we can get it onto the field. Otherwise, these cards are just that: cardboard.

When we draft battles, we need to ask ourselves:

Is the frontside on-plan?
Do we have a reliable means of flipping this battle at a point in the game when it is still relevant?
How powerful is flipping this card?

Ultimately, these all culminate into one single decision point: will this card be a meaningful game piece for us to win this game? Or is it a clunky side quest, in which the juice will rarely earn the squeeze? If we're going to commit to a battle, we need to make sure that we have a battle worth fighting for.

A Battle Worth Fighting

Battles can certainly offer a lot of power and some very interesting gameplay, but we need to make sure we're able to get the most out of them. Often, maximizing their worth will mean overcoming the setbacks the format's defensive spells can create.

So Wrong It’s Right: Are Misprints Undervalued… or Overpriced?

Posted on April 27, 2023April 27, 2023 by Joe Mauri

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Magic is no stranger to factory errors. Missing cards, wrong power toughness, wrong color, wrong mana cost, and wrong artist attribution have occurred since Alpha. However, misprinted cards have also existed just as long, and are some of the rarest and most sought-after cards for a small but growing group of dedicated players and collectors.

In 1994, I was one of the only people that was always fascinated by "error" cards. From misprints to miscuts to crimps, I have collected them all. For most of Magic's life, the group of players looking for these types of cards remained relatively small. Then again, so did the Magic population. With Magic growing larger every year, primarily fueled by Commander players, a new breed of collector has emerged. There is now a significant number of players building Commander decks composed entirely of error cards, which brings demand to a new level. Well, that is, unless Wizards has something to say about it.

Common Errors: A Primer

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For an excellent beginner's guide, I can do no better than recommend MisprintedMTG. They have not only the most common of errors all laid out in an easy-to-digest guide, but also plenty of pictures of examples. I'm going to briefly go over just a few of the most common misprints and then point out where and how you can benefit from this knowledge.

Miscuts, Off-Centered, and Corner Cuts

The defining characteristic of a miscut card is that you can see another card somewhere. Even just another card border can be enough for most people to agree it's a miscut. Of course, with this market, there are degrees to everything. Horizontal miscuts tend to be far rarer than vertical ones, and seeing a name of one card on the artwork of another tends to be a sweet spot that is ideal for most collectors. Since the name of the game is showing off the card, few people tend to care how the miscut looks on the back.

This is a very clear example of an off-centered card. Some collectors prefer all the cards to have the same alignment, and others don't have a preference of orientation but are looking at how extreme the error is. Like miscuts, few people seem to care if the back of a card is off-centered.

There are also NFCs, or non-factory cut cards. Wizards has given people uncut sheets of cards as prizes, and enterprising people decided to have the sheets deliberately miscut to increase their total value. Most error collectors are aware of NFCs and are not interested if more than two cards are showing.

Crimps

Crimps are another highly visible error. Sometimes your cards get into a fight with the crimping machine, and, well, the crimping machine wins. There are top crimps, bottom crimps, and even some across the center of card. Occasionally, a card gets crimped so hard it's cut in half, and each piece goes into a different pack. The physical look of a crimp is based on what set a card is from, and they can be extremely wide or just barely glancing an edge of a card.

However, note that it's entirely possible that a card was crimped outside of the factory. Because of this, it's a "buyer beware" error type. Still, crimps are very popular, even though they are technically damaged and could be inauthentic.

Corners

There are two main examples of corner cut errors. First, one or more perfectly square corners. Secondly, and this mostly applies to older cards, mainly 4th Edition, there are extremely rounded corners similar to the Alpha set. Square corners in particular seem to be a fairly prolific error in newer sets. Of course, much like a few of the error types above, "Alpha corners" technically could have been shaved down by unscrupulous actors, and may not be true factory errors.

Ink Dots and Color Errors

"Dark Visions" is one of many examples of potential color errors

These are just a couple of examples of common printing errors where ink gets on a card, and too much or not enough color makes it to the final product. While it is easy to identify printer hickeys and ink splotches, or areas where a card is completely over- or under-saturated in ink, new cards are simply not as consistent as older cards in this way.

Because new cards are printed at multiple different facilities, they have higher, completely normal, color variance. The same goes for foils. There is a massive amount of variance in foils made today, and just because a foil is a little lighter or darker than normal it might not pass as a misprint.

Stamp Collectors, Rejoice!

A Missing Stamp or Added Collector Value?

It did not take long for collectors to notice that once Wizards started adding holographic stamps to cards, there were notable errors. Stamps could be completely missing, significantly off-centered, partially missing, or indented into the card, and some cards received two stamps. Some collectors look for stamps that can be aligned perfectly, but are actually upside down.

Yes, looking at every single stamped bulk rare can yield a somewhat rare error that has a premium attached. Furthermore, pre-release and promotional cards which have date or logo stamps are an even rarer base card which can also have these types of errors, and are highly desirable.

Class Is Over; What Have We Learned?

Wow, there are a lot of different errors, and we only covered some of the most common ones. There are more color and foil variations than could ever be described. But what good is this information?

Well, there are collectors out there looking for even the smallest of variations in color, alignment, or foiling. While this has always been so, the total number of people looking for obscure rarities was relatively low... until Commander.

The Commander Effect

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas

Commander has made the market for misprints crazy. Sure, there were a handful of players looking to build 60-card misprint decks and increase the size of their collection of oddities, but that was a minuscule pool. Now, there are a considerable number of players looking for a full 100 misprints for Commander, and oddity collectors on top of that. This creates a massive amount of demand that simply did not exist several years ago. When you look at price spikes for cards like Dan Dan based on a game variant and then consider the much more massive player base of Commander, it does not take a genius to see value appreciating. However, there are caveats.

Wizards is doing an incredibly bad job with quality control. It is empirically easy to see that virtually every single new card, no matter what edition, variant, or special treatment, has a few misprints available. In particular, the centering on modern cards is atrocious. Entire packs and boxes are off-centered or close enough to count. Furthermore, entire pre-constructed Commander decks are somewhat regularly miscut or off-centered directly from the factory.

Still, while the supply of misprints is growing alongside regular cards, the demand for these misprints is vastly outstripping it. Furthermore, as the population of rarity collectors increases, "what counts" for a misprint is becoming far more relaxed. Years ago, a modestly off-centered card would get a nod or a normal full-priced offer; no premium. Nowadays, many cards that are only slightly off-centered can easily net a bonus of twenty to fifty percent. For in-demand meta cards, two, five, or ten times normal retail value is relatively common, and more extreme misprints can yield exponentially more extreme values.

Are All Misprints Instant Money?

The short answer is "no," and the long answer is "it depends." Right now, there is an auction for a Nemesis foreign language double-printed card listed at $2,000.

This is an ultra-unique card, and it's very likely a one-of-one in existence. However, a regular copy of the card is one dollar.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volrath the Fallen

The card in question, Volrath the Fallen, is not a super popular card in Commander or Magic history at large. There might be one super Volrath fan that needs this exact card or perhaps a general oddities collector interested in it.

Greener Pastures

However, the opportunity cost of acquiring this one card is extreme. You can get several other, better, misprints for that amount of money, and those cards have a much greater chance of appreciating in the future.

Volrath? Not so much. Tying up money in expensive assets that have a low chance of appreciating is not a good idea, and it can be easy to do so if you're chasing the misprint market. It's far better to find deals that have an exceptional upside with virtually no downside.

The misprints market was once a bit insular and obscure. Now it's significantly larger and known. There are several Facebook groups dedicated solely to misprints, and they have card auctions daily. Large online retailers have misprint sections on their websites, and of course eBay auctions include oddities all the time.

Profiting From Misprints

If you have a large collection but have not scrutinized your cards very closely, now may be the time! Unlike something intentionally printed by Wizards to have artificial scarcity, misprints are the real deal and truly "one of one" in some cases. To the right buyer, it's a name-your-price kind of transaction. Here are four tips to profit from misprints.

1. Check Your Existing Inventory

You've already paid for what you own, so the cost here is simply in additional time. However, it's a massive time commitment to thoroughly check every single piece of cardboard. Your best bet is to focus on meta cards like the EDREC top 100, and anything commanding a high price is worth a closer look. If you have many thousands of cards from across the years, it's likely you may find a couple of hits.

2. Bulk Buys

When going through bulk, keep an eye out for misprints! These can be the best pulls that you may not even notice you're passing up. I've been to several stores with large inventory that charge full retail for bulk commons and uncommons, so if you did find a three-dollar common, they will charge you three dollars. However, paying full retail for misprint cards is one way you can win in this situation.

3. Binder Buys

Sometimes a binder contains a high-priced meta card that is a misprint, but it's priced normally. This scenario is surprisingly common and an easy way to plus on a transaction. The best part is that the high-demand meta cards are already picked out for you. This is an extremely easy way to turn $20 into $50.

4. Know Your Clientele

Finally, join a few dedicated misprint groups on Facebook or elsewhere and learn who collects what. Soon, you will readily sell crimps to Bill and right aligned off-centered cards to Sarah. This is the easiest way to turn cards you purchased for 50 cents into five dollars. Most collectors are always buying, and have a price range they tend to stick to. Learn what they are willing to pay and you can easily win on multiple cards.

Perfectly Imperfect

Hopefully you've learned a little bit about the misprint market and some of the strategies that can earn you a tidy profit. Do you collect error cards? What's the best misprint you have seen in the wild? Let me know in the comments. And happy digging!

Caught Blue-Handed: Is Murktide Modern’s Best Deck?

Posted on April 26, 2023April 26, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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Modern is in a very strange place. UR Murktide has been sitting atop the statistics for 13 months, and by a wide margin. However, despite what the statistics say, Murktide doesn't feel like a Tier 0 deck. I've refused to call it one despite being technically justified by the statistics, and most players agree.

Many would argue that Murktide isn't actually the best deck in Modern, and that Modern isn't remotely unhealthy. Obviously, this is met with pushback.

My take is complicated. The short answer is that Murktide isn't the best deck and Modern is fine. The long answer is that Murktide is unequivocally the best deck, and Modern's health is complicated.

The Short Answer

It is no secret that UR Murktide has been sitting, nearly uncontested, at the top of Modern's metagame statistics since March 2022. It has done so by statistically significant margins on Magic Online (MTGO) every month, and in paper most months. However, it doesn't actually win events. There have been 14 Challenges reported from MTGO and Murktide has won just three of them. That's about 21%, or not great. It hasn't won any of the big Modern events (that I've seen reported, anyway). When Twin was banned for being everywhere, it was also winning everything.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Even beyond the event wins, Murktide doesn't have that great of a winrate. The Grand Open Qualifier Prague reported that Murktide's match win percentage was 50.70%. That's solid, but not exceptional, especially when 4-Color Creativity managed 57.36%. This has been a consistent tale since Murktide's inception, and this evidence and player stories indicate that Murktide isn't too powerful, but just incredibly popular.

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As for Modern's health, there's no pressing problem, though things could be better. The card diversity isn't great, and some decks are definitely overrepresented. However, there's nothing overtly oppressive, and whenever Wizards discusses Modern, they mention that win rates aren't concerning and the top decks seem quite even. Thus, Modern is in a good (if not great) spot, so there's no need for concern.

Pedantry Corner

That's all well and good, if we're looking for a simple answer. However, if what we're after is a complete answer, we can do a lot better. The short answer was all hearsay and intuition with some cursory, unquestioned data. But for a deeper and more involved look, more work is needed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eye of Ugin

Which means that some definitions are required. I know it sounds unbearably pedantic, but it is actually completely essential to define exactly what is meant by "best deck." Every player can recognize a true Tier 0 deck by its overwhelming impact on a format, but below that level, things become exponentially muddier. What makes a deck "the best?" If it were clear, it'd never be argued over.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Birthing Pod

The previous section mentioned overall win rate, event wins, and metagame percentage as ways to judge the best deck. Those are good criteria, but they're just criteria. Also, they're not the only criteria for this job. Criteria are used to make the definition; they're not the definition themself.

The Bigger Problem

Event wins, overall win rate, and metagame percentage are all good criteria for judging the best deck in Modern. However, where do you draw the line? Which percentage, what win rate, or how many event wins does it take to become the best deck in Modern? What other criteria should be included, and how should any of it be weighted?

I'm not just being pedantic and rhetorical here. There are indeed an infinite number of ways and means to define something, and choosing one way will necessarily preclude other ways. There is no truly concrete answer that would satisfy everyone. So, disclaimer: I'm going to work with the criteria I can find data for and that make sense to me.

Defining the Best

As they're the ones that most players cite, I will obviously investigate event wins, overall winrate, and metagame percentage as metrics for Modern's best deck. There's no red line for any of this, as everything is contextual. Instead, I'm going to see which deck is leading in each category. The best deck doesn't have to win every one, but it will probably lead most of them. If there was one deck winning every possible category, we'd have an obvious Tier 0 situation on our hands, as with Hogaak Summer. Again, that is not the case, even if we can identify a definite best deck according to our chosen metrics.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis

Based on how previous best decks were judged, I'm adding two other criteria: longevity and metagame warp. The former is straightforward, measuring how long has a deck been able to hold its position. Any deck can have a good tournament, or a good month. But the best deck should be able to hold that position consistently for a decent run of months, even with the metagame increasingly adapting to reclaim its shares.

Best decks also exert pressure on the metagame, either gradually or immediately forcing everything else to adapt with it in mind. This can be overt, as with decks maindecking graveyard hate against Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis, or subtle, as when players leaned into card advantage to hedge against Grixis Shadow in 2017. Sideboard cards count less than maindeck changes, since that's what a sideboard is for. A true best deck should have some visible effect on the other decks.

Long Answer

As I stated in the introductory paragraph, Murktide is in fact Modern's best deck according to my criteria, and by quite a bit. I was actually surprised when I went through the data investigating the question, but Murktide is going to win a lot more of these categories than I was expecting. When I decided to write this article, I thought I was going to give a hedgier or even ambiguous answer. That is far from the case. Let's explore the criteria point by point.

Longevity

Murktide wins this category. It has been not only Tier 1, but at the top of Tier 1 since March 2022. The worst it's ever done is fall to #2 in both paper and MTGO. There's no deck that has come close to this run in the current metagame, so Murktide obviously wins if we're talking the best deck of the past year.

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However, if we expand further, then things change. Murktide and Temur Rhinos showed up immediately after Modern Horizons 2 released, though Murktide was doing far better than Rhinos for a while, then fell off. Hammer Time found that cute, as it was the #1 deck during the last half of 2021. It had already been in my updates since November 2020, and had first made Tier 1 in January 2021.

When Murktide hasn't been the #1 deck, Hammer Time replaced it all but one time. The other time, Rhinos made it. Hammer Time, too, has never been less than Tier 1 in paper or MTGO since before MH2, while Rhinos has been all over the place.

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Thus, there are two answers for the best longevity deck. Murktide wins for any length up to a year ago. Beyond that, Hammer Time has the advantage. Since I'm more interested in the current Modern, I'd pick Murktide for the deck with the most longevity, though Hammer Time is a very close second.

Winner: Murktide

Metagame Percentage

As with longevity, the winner of this category depends on the desired timeframe. As my metagame updates have shown, Murktide is the #1 deck in terms of metagame percentage and has been since March 2022. It really isn't close.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lurrus of the Dream-Den

However, if we go back to MH2's release, it again gets much closer. While it's had its ups and downs, Hammer Time has been #2 on the Tier list more often than other decks during Murktide's run. Before that, it was the #1 deck from June 2022 until Lurrus of the Dream-Den was banned in March.

Hammer never achieved the level of dominance that Murktide has enjoyed, but it was solidly on top. Murktide was initially #2, but fell off into Tier 2 prior to the Lurrus ban. Thus, Hammer does gain some ground on Murktide and prevents it being a total runaway win. Murktide still clearly wins, though.

Winner: Murktide

Overall Winrate

I dislike using winrate to judge decks for two reasons. The first is that, regardless of the deck's power, a more popular deck will have a lower winrate than other decks simply because inexperienced players will gravitate towards just playing the best deck. That inexperience translates into fewer wins. It was said that the only thing keeping Krark-Clan Ironworks from being a metagame monster was that it was too difficult for mass adoption. That's not a problem for Murktide, which is a good deal more forgiving than that now-banned combo deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Krark-Clan Ironworks

The second is that a deck's true winrate is rarely the one that can be found and reported. Daybreak and Wizards know (or at least could know) the exact win/loss record of every match played on MTGO, but they don't report that data. The best we get are the reported records from the Premier events, and those records are rarely worse than 50%. To get the true win/loss requires all the decks that didn't Top 32, which aren't reported. It's worse in paper, where records often don't get reported at all. Thus, the winrate is reflective of only some decks and incomplete data.

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That said, the primary source I use for the metagame update does publish winrates. According to them, Murktide's overall winrate is just under 50%. Their listed matchup percentages average to 49.75%, and they report and overall rate of 49%.

The best winrate among decks with at least 1,000 recorded matches is 4-Color Creativity at 55%. Jeskai Breach comes in at 54% to take the #2 slot. Thus, Creativity would be the winner of this criterion. However, I personally wouldn't weight this category too heavily given my above concerns.

Winner: 4-Color Creativity

Event Wins

A rant: What happened to the "sort by result" feature? I distinctly remember a time when sites that recorded results let me sort through the results easily to see which decks placed where. The only one that has any kind of list anymore is Star City Games, but that's only for their events, and it's not even complete! This made evaluating wins much harder and take far more time than expected. End rant.

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While it's true that Murktide doesn't win many events, the real question is which deck does win. Not just random events, but the big ones. As big paper events are rare and inconsistent in scale, I'm not going to evaluate them. The data wouldn't look like anything because there are too few data points, and the ones that exist aren't really fair comparisons. However, there are plenty of MTGO Challenges every month, and they do resemble each other enough to be compared for our purposes.

As the number of events increased in 2023, I'll focus on this year for consistency. Going through the complete data for January, February, and March, plus the 14 posted Challenges as of me writing this article, records the following decks as placing first:

Deck Name	January Wins	February Wins	March Wins	April Wins	Total
UR Murktide	1	2	3	3	9
4-Color Creativity	0	1	4	1	6
Rakdos Scam	1	3	1	1	6
Temur Rhinos	1	1	1	2	5
Yawgmoth	0	1	3	0	4
Hammer Time	2	2	0	0	4
Mill	1	0	0	2	3
Living End	1	0	0	2	3
Jeskai Value Breach	1	1	1	0	3
Mono-Green Tron	1	0	0	1	2
Goryo's Kitchen	0	1	0	1	2
Izzet Value Breach	0	0	2	0	2
Jund Saga	0	1	1	0	2
4-Color Rhinos	1	1	0	0	2
Amulet Titan	0	0	0	1	1
Glimpse Combo	0	0	0	1	1
Rakdos Rock	0	0	1	0	1
Goryo Blink	0	0	1	0	1
Humans	0	1	0	0	1
Mono-Red Moon	0	1	0	0	1
Boros Moon	0	1	0	0	1
Temur Creativity	1	0	0	0	1
Merfolk	1	0	0	0	1
Mono-Red Artifacts	1	0	0	0	1
Counter Cat	1	0	0	0	1

I wasn't expecting anything about that table. I didn't expect the diversity present, I didn't expect to see many of the decks in the list period, and I definitely didn't expect Murktide to actually win this criterion. I'd bought into the narrative that Murktide doesn't win events and until now, had never bothered to check. But win it does, and by an impressive margin, too: 50% better than the runners-up.

As it turns out, Murktide hasn't won many Challenges/Challenge level events in 2023; just 9/64, or 14%. Which is still better than any other deck. Murktide wins.

Winner: Murktide

Metagame Warp

I started thinking about this article back in March. At the time, I'd have said that the evidence for Murktide actively warping the metagame is thin at best. There's plenty of evidence that decks are prepared against Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and graveyards, but that can't be traced to Murktide specifically. In fact, the last time there was an obvious warp was during the Lurrus era, when Chalice of the Void saw far more play in far more decks than any time before or since. That hit Hammer Time more than other decks, but I can't say it targeted at the deck as much as the card, so partial credit at best.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mystical Dispute

However, April has produced something interesting. Temur Rhinos has started maindecking Mystical Dispute. I thought it was a blip the first time it happened, but over the month it has become increasingly, though not universally, standard on MTGO, and it's working its way into the paper results, too. Dispute is not a dead card outside of blue matchups, but it does specifically shine in those. As the only dedicatedly blue deck at the top of the metagame is Murktide, I'd argue it's a targeted choice against the top deck. It's not the strongest evidence, but it is evidence.

Murktide Is the Best Deck

With clear and expected wins in two categories, a clear and unexpected win in a third, and at minimum partial credit in a fourth, Murktide emerges as the clear best deck in Modern. Its nearest challenger is Hammer Time, with two second place finishes and (maybe) a partial credit. I knew Murktide would get two wins when I started planning this article, but I didn't expect it to get more. Seems like I'm among the many who have been underestimating the deck.

On Metagame Health

As for the overall health of the Modern metagame, I write a yearly article on that subject already, so a more in-depth review isn't necessary. I stand by my evaluation from that article: Modern is okay. It's not great; it's not terrible; it's just okay. However, there is something I want to add to the analysis in that article. I had and still have a problem with Modern's trajectory, but only just realized how to express that problem.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

In economics, we teach that a concentrated market is a bad market. Monopolies and oligopolies are bad. An unconcentrated monopolistically competitive market is the best attainable outcome. However, the line between an oligopoly and monopolistic competition is often blurry. Both can have a large number of firms in them, but in the former only a small number of big ones matter. To determine if there's a problem, concentration ratios are used to measure market concentration. There's no red line on concentration, but if an unconcentrated market is moving toward concentration, then there's a problem.

Modern's Concentration

The way that concentration is taught normally focuses on the 5-Firm Concentration Ratio. The more firms are included, the more concentrated the market will necessarily be, so five is a good indicator. The only source I know of that has data going back to Modern's creation is MTGTop8.com, so I'm using their data. Here are the combined metagame percentages of the top five decks in Modern for each year according to MTGTop8.

Year	5 Deck Concentration Ratio
2023	46%
2022	35%
2021	28%
2020	29%
2019	32%
2018	31%
2017	36%
2016	35%
2015	42%
2014	41%
2013	49%
2012	48%
2011	50%

As you can see, Modern started off quite concentrated, with the top decks taking up a huge metagame share, and gradually moved towards a non-concentrated state. In 2022, that trend sharply reversed, and if the data for the start of 2023 is any indication, it's getting worse. This is the most concentrated Modern's been since Splinter Twin was legal. Whether the concentration itself is bad is, of course, up for debate. But to me, the fact that concentration is increasing is deeply concerning.

The Numbers Are Unequivocal

There's no doubt that Murktide is Modern's most popular deck. It also appears to win more events than other decks, even if that number is a far cry from winning the vast majority of events (as is more likely in a Tier 0 event). And we've also explored why the deck is so good on a strategic axis.

A deck can be popular for no reason, but it can't sustain that popularity without good reason, or without rewarding its pilots. There's no doubt in my mind that Murktide is Modern's most successful deck over the past year. Whether that's a good or bad thing is something to discuss in the comments. I'll see you there!

Beginner’s Mindset: A Fresh Look at Magic

Posted on April 24, 2023April 23, 2023 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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One of my favorite characteristics of Magic is its ability to refresh itself time and again. This happens every couple of years, in my experience, and occurs because of both external and internal factors.

Externally, Wizards of the Coast continues to evolve this game with the advent of new sets, new formats, new keywords and abilities, new playing media (Arena has been a major boon), and more. Internally, Magic has managed to meet my evolving social and entertainment needs as I navigated through numerous life stages—from my pre-teen years up through parenthood.

With each new evolution, I experience a period of “beginner’s mindset,” a concept from Zen Buddhism that instructs the concept of openness, eagerness, and a lack of preconceptions. Every time I try something new in the world of Magic, I enter with an open heart and mind as I eagerly learn about that new area.

This past week I experienced three such “beginner’s mindset” moments in Magic, all with varying degrees of success.

My Foray into the Art World

Last week I declared my newfound interest in acquiring a piece of original Magic art. I had my eyes set on Zara Alfonso’s sketch of Kithkin Billyrider, but I lost out in a bidding war on Facebook. This was disappointing and humbling. With my beginner’s mindset approach, I took it as a valuable learning experience and an invitation to try again.

When I tweeted about my defeat, multiple members of the Magic art collector community reached out and offered to help me acquire my first piece. The response was so welcoming and supportive. I was blown away by everyone’s kindness and generosity with their time. I want to say that my foray into Magic finance was the same way, but let’s face it: the #MTGfinance community can be a toxic community at times.

A special shoutout goes to Phil Li (@ThePheylop) who has gone out of his way to educate me in the original Magic art space. He sent me links to different pieces of art that are for sale, discussed pricing with me, and even offered to help negotiate on my behalf to leverage a cash + trade offer on a piece I like. If the rest of the Magic Twitter community functioned this way, it would be a much brighter place to hang out.

For all I know, there may be politicking and drama in the art community too, but as a pure beginner in this space, I have nothing but warm and fuzzy feelings toward everyone. Through these interactions, I’ve learned so much more about Magic art and artists, and I am absorbing this new knowledge like a sponge! With their help, I am confident that I will find that first beloved piece that I can hang on my wall.

Additionally, I’ve acquired a much greater appreciation for modern Magic art. A few years ago, in the heart of my “Old School MTG” phase, I once made the naïve comment that I appreciated classic Magic art over modern-day pieces. I would like to retract that statement. While I’ll always have a nostalgic soft spot for classic pieces such as Shahrazad and Eureka, the detail and depth of contemporary pieces like Kithkin Billyrider or Alessandra Maria’s Nesting Dovehawk blows me away.

Art will always be subjective, but my opinions have evolved. I apologize for any hurt feelings I might have made with ignorant, misplaced comments.

My Foray into March of the Machine Limited

I didn’t draft Phyrexia: All Will Be One when it first launched on Arena because I was pursuing other interests at the time (mostly chess). A couple of weeks into the format, it became clear from listening to my favorite Limited podcasts, Lords of Limited and Limited Resources, that this was not a community-favorite draft format. I was fairly convinced it wouldn’t be worth my gold and gems, but I did try one draft during the course of the format. When it was done, I didn’t feel inspired to run a second. One draft of ONE was enough.

I have a little more free time to try drafting now that March of the Machine is out on Arena. Once again, I employed the beginner’s mindset to remain humble, eagerly learning all I could about this new format. Boy oh boy was there much to learn!

The First Draft

My first draft left me somewhat short on playables. I hesitated too long before picking a third color. I knew I would run black because I picked up some solid removal spells, but the bomb rares weren’t flowing my way and I was receiving mixed signals from both red and blue. Ultimately, I ended up on a black-red sacrifice deck that didn’t see any Furnace Reins. The deck played clunky, but I still managed a 5-3 result simply because I was playing in the bronze portion of the ladder.

The Second Draft

I had a little more luck in the second draft. I picked up a Polukranos Reborn // Polukranos, Engine of Ruin after first picking an Invasion of Karsus // Refraction Elemental.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polukranos Reborn // Polukranos, Engine of Ruin

While I was light on removal, I picked up a Lutri, the Spellchaser and I was excited to draft a Red Green beatdown deck!

I promptly went 1-3, losing to bombs like Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon, Tribute to the World Tree, and (in my opinion) the most offensive bomb of all, Invasion of New Phyrexia // Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Invasion of New Phyrexia // Teferi Akosa of Zhalfir

Suddenly my brew with a giant hydra and the ability to fork Cosmic Hunger with Lutri felt insufficient. I quickly realized that a tightly built deck can easily be outclassed by the format’s numerous bombs and heavy hitters. While I felt like I had a couple of powerhouse cards myself, they simply could not hold a candle to what my opponents were throwing against me. I understand now why my favorite Limited podcasters are describing this format as very Cube-like in power level.

I haven’t given up, though, and I’ll maintain my beginner’s mindset for at least a couple more drafts before I make a broader decision about where March of the Machine falls in my personal preference ranking. I struggle with Cube drafts, so I suspect I won’t have tremendous success with this set.

My Foray (Back) Into Standard

It feels like ages ago since I hit Constructed Mythic on Arena and felt confident enough in Standard to enter small (free) events through Star City Games. It’s frustrating how less than a year away from Arena can send you so far behind, in both card pool (wildcards don’t create themselves) and in metagame knowledge.

Despite this, I’m adopting the beginner’s mindset once again and dipping my toes back into Standard. I’m beginning this foray by copying one of Ashlizzle’s decks. It's a Red-Black deck centered around sacrifice synergies. I’ve been a huge fan of sacrifice strategies ever since Throne of Eldraine blessed us with Cauldron Familiar and Witch's Oven.

Here’s the list I’m following as closely as I can, given my limited supply of rare wildcards (I still need Blackcleave Cliff)s.

RB Sacrifice, Standard Deck

Creatures

4 Scorn-Blade Berserker

4 Unlucky Witness

3 Vraan, Executioner Thane

4 Bloodtithe Harvester

3 Braids, Arisen Nightmare

Battles

2 Invasion of Azgol // Ashen Reaper

Sorceries

2 Annihilating Glare

4 Furnace Reins

Instants

4 Corrupted Conviction

Artifacts

4 Oni-Cult Anvil

Enchantments

4 Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

Lands

1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

1 Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

4 Haunted Ridge

4 Sulfurous Springs

2 Mirrex

3 Swamp

3 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Duress

1 Eaten Alive

2 Go for the Throat

2 Ob Nixilis, the Adversary

2 Cut Down

2 Vampires' Vengeance

2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

I’ve only played a couple of best-of-one matches so far with this deck—I’ve won and lost with it, so it’s too soon to pass judgment. One thing I will say is I have much to learn regarding how the cards work together and how the metagame has evolved since I last played Standard. I can readily see how mistakes I’ve made have cost me chances to win the games I lost. With the beginner’s mindset, I’ll continue to study the strategy and hopefully grind my way out of bronze and back up to a respectable tier on the ladder. It will take time, practice, and a great deal of learning.

Wrapping It Up

Regarding gameplay, I’ve rediscovered Magic for the umpteenth time via March of the Machine Limited and Standard, courtesy of Arena’s ultimate flexibility. As a parent of two kids, this is the best way for me to enjoy playing this inventive game with minimal disruption to my home life.

On the collecting side, I’ve moved off Old School cards and random Beta rares and towards art collecting. I had no idea what I was missing until I joined the Facebook art group. I've discovered the beauty and talent this community boasts. Rather than try to fight the impossible battle of obtaining the “One Ring” card, why not consider obtaining a 1/1 art piece instead? That’s the strategy I’m going to use, and it should be about 1/100 the price!

As long as I maintain the beginner’s mindset, I should enjoy these newfound spaces in the universe of Magic. I’ve been playing the game for 26 years and I’m still blown away by how diverse and expansive the hobby can truly be. Whether it’s Limited, Constructed, new formats, old formats, collecting cards, collecting art, or any combination therein, it truly feels like Magic is a hobby that has something for everybody to enjoy.

March of the Machine Limited: First Takes and Archetype Breakdown

Posted on April 21, 2023April 28, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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And they're off!

So far March of the Machine (MOM) appears to be a wildly popular format. The culmination of the Phyrexian Saga ends with a final battle between the forces of good and evil, but regardless of this climactic clash, we have a brand-new Limited format, and it is an absolute blast. MOM will no doubt become a fan favorite.

To the delight of many players, this format is a huge change from WOTC's most recent offerings. While BRO and ONE were considered very aggressive, this format is decidedly more midrange. This week, we'll greet the format with a couple of fresh takes and a breakdown of the archetypes.

Flip-Flip-Flipadelphia

In last week's article we discussed the lack of potent early creatures. The flip commons would like a word.

Lower your curve, not your threat density

These four cards have felt excellent. Tarkir Duneshaper // Burnished Dunestomper, Order of the Mirror // Order of the Alabaster Host, Aetherblade Agent, and Pyretic Prankster // Glistening Goremonger eloquently answer the call for a presence in the early-game, as well as being real cards in the mid- and late-game. The early data has admittedly been underwhelming, but these are still the commons we want at the start of our curve.

Bonded Herdbeast // Plated Kilnbeast, the fifth member of the cycle, looks to be solid but replaceable. The other four are premium options for any deck. The bar for a good five-drop is simply higher, and there is no shortage of options there.

Early Thoughts on Battles

Battles complicate Michael Flores's age-old question. Instead of simply asking "who's the beatdown," we now need to know where it's heading as well. That target changes at different states of the game. Our opponent's life total becomes more valuable with scarcity. For example, we might send six damage at a battle when our opponent has twenty life, but we should never do it when they have six.

As a result, if we play battles early, there's a good chance we'll defeat them. If we play them late, they are more often reduced to just the front side's value. In other words, if that one side is not a card we're willing to include, we need to consider other options.

Tempo-Positive Interaction Swings Games

The swings in this format are real. Flipping battles, casting end-step convokes, or just playing a game-warping bomb can rescue games from the brink of finality.

Ephara's Dispersal, Cut Short, and Vanquish the Weak play on this axis. They manage the tempo of the game but typically trade down on resources. Because card advantage is so plentiful in the format, most decks can afford to absorb the loss. But snowballed advantages are harder to overcome with raw value alone. These cards help with that.

The card that has most outperformed expectations has been Wicked Slumber. Casting this with zero mana up is a beating. Slumber is potently templated, providing an option to put both stun counters on a single creature. Whether it helps us defeat a battle, push damage, or buy time, this card can wreck tight games.

Blue Is the Best Color

Four of the top five two-color decks, according to 17lands.com, feature blue. The color plays host to the format's most powerful keyword, convoke, and most supported archetype, UW Knights. Furthermore, blue has access to strong tempo plays at all rarities, while still boasting cards that can generate advantage over a long game.

Moreover, blue does all the things that are important in this format. It has strong synergies, can play a long game while still adding to the board, and interacts in a way that helps control the tempo of the game. Check out the current top commons in the format, according to GIH WR%. There are four blue spells, three removal spells, and one outlier.

Seed of Hope has the smallest sample size, by far. It's a cantrip that feeds the graveyard, gains life, and carries a minor risk of disaster. The most likely conclusion? It's seeing disproportionate play in the hands of stronger players. But if that's the case, why does it have such an outlandish IWD?

Knights Is the Most Supported Archetype

Knights looks to be the most supported archetype in the format. It's deep at common. The synergies in this deck matter. Swordsworn Cavalier is a buzzsaw in the early game. Until we get to four mana, very few creatures in the format can block a 3/1 first strike profitably.

Chivalry alive and well

This deck also has the ability to maximize convoke cards, because it already creates a vigilant board presence. This is an aggressive deck that can go late. However, with all the bombs in the format, an Artistic Refusal, while off-plan, can go a long way. If our Knights deck looks like it might need to pivot into a longer game, this is a worthy consideration.

Convokin's Broken

The returning convoke mechanic is a lot better in this set than it was in Guilds of Ravnica. Convoking spells feels like a completely different mechanic than convoking creatures. The mechanic thrives in MOM because we already want to build out our board and need to make tempo positive plays. The following cards have all exceeded expectations.

No joke convoke

If we're still seeing these cards go late, we should take advantage of it. However, if we are in this archetype, or if we're simply playing convoke cards, we need to build out an early board. Ral's Reinforcements is a fine enabler, but the nature of the format leads to wide, complicated boards. Turns out that's pretty good for convoke. Who knew? Even cards like Shatter the Source and Astral Wingspan have been strong.

UR Convoke is not as thematic as Wizards would have us believe. Convoke for the sake of convoke. We don't need to overcommit to keyword-driven synergies.

UB: Not Just Run of the Mill

UB is supposedly a Mill deck. Tenured Oilcaster and Halo-Charged Skaab aren't very convincing though. This is a slower, value-based deck that wants to get ahead on resources. Fortunately, that's what this format is all about. UB currently has the highest win rate of all color combinations.

This color combination has some of the most powerful battles in the form of Invasion of Ulgrotha // Grandmother Ravi Sengir, Invasion of Amonkhet // Lazotep Convert, and Invasion of Eldraine // Prickle Faeries. We want to win a war of attrition, so of course UB is a solid place to be. Breach the Multiverse might look too expensive, but it's a battlecruiser trump card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Breach the Multiverse

This deck is powerful, but really gets its juice from cards at higher rarities. Blue and black both have great commons, but there's an old adage: the longer the game goes, the more powerful you need your deck to be. UB has the tools to win any slugfest.

RG: Battles

Pressure the battles early, dominate the battlefield. It's strange to see an aggressive deck ready to play a long game. This deck has a hellbent problem. It's asking us to do something we don't typically benefit from doing. RW Samurais in Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty had the same issue. Aggressive decks don't want to attack with only one creature. They also don't want to take detours before shortening the game. This deck faces an interesting crossroads on every attack.

However, to get to those battles, we have some tools. War Historian, War-Trained Slasher, and Thrashing Frontliner do a nice job applying pressure to battles. The jury is still out on Onakke Javelineer and Portent Tracker. While ramp and reach are valuable, they pressure battles slowly. It might be a liability while other decks are doing more by building out a battlefield and convoking.

The biggest concern for this deck is that it doesn't necessarily have the tools to play from behind. This deck wants to snowball its advantage by having a big board presence and adding to it with each battle it defeats. However, if it stumbles early, or hits a road block in the form of one of MOM's extremely powerful rares or mythics, it might have trouble. While we shouldn't avoid playing RG, we should have a good reason to navigate ourselves towards these colors.

GW: Counters

GW Counters looks very solid. There's nice overlap between green's ability to go after battles and the backup mechanic, which helps accelerate the process. This deck also wants to bully the board and defeat battles. Plus, the uncommon payoffs are all very strong.

Outpacing opponents

The backup mechanic makes it much easier to find counters, which can sometimes be a bottleneck for this archetype. To further assist this issue, the incubate mechanic also uses counters, so there's definitely synergies to be had there.

Just about every white deck is going to want Angelic Intervention, but this one makes the best use of it. It's a powerful effect whenever it's printed. Getting a bonus off of the counter is just gravy. If our GW deck is creature-heavy, we could realistically be happy playing three of these. The commons for GW are shallow, but if we have the strong payoffs, we can get more out of them.

Abzan: Phyrexian/Incubate

GB and WB are technically different archetypes, but they look and play very similarly. These decks want to bog down the board with incubate tokens, soften the board with black's great depth of removal spells, and grind out games. The format has a couple of enchantments with incubate that are all excellent in these decks, even if splashed.

The eggs got legs

Green and white both shore up black's early game with two-drop creatures. Black provides interaction to help keep the game from getting out of hand. The incubate cards are how we get ahead. It's a simple recipe, but there are some strong build-arounds at uncommon that can help us in that third stage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elvish Vatkeeper

The Phyrexian tokens are surprisingly big, and once they start stacking keywords from the enchantments, they take control of a game.

UG: Transform/Splash

This archetype does not seem particularly well-supported. The signpost uncommon is clearly built with the archetype in mind, but even the UG Battle looks like they just stapled the "double-face" language onto it.

This is the type of archetype we might find ourselves in if both colors are open, but the synergies are underwhelming. There is enough power in the format for any deck to seem viable, as long as the colors are open. We already want to be blue; however, from a theory-crafting perspective, green's fight-style removal isn't particularly well-supported by blue's cards.

Splashing wisely, though, can turn an open UG pile into a deadly deck. UG and UB are currently the best two decks that splash a third color, and amongst three-color decks, the best two both include blue and green. UG typically slides into a multi-colored deck, and this format supports this strategy. Of note, there is a big difference between the good mana-fixers and the bad ones. The best one is Invasion of Zendikar // Awakened Skyclave.

RW: Backup

Backup is spread equally across the Naya shard. However, GW seems to profit the most, as multiple cards care about +1/+1 counters in those colors. RW obviously has access to the white cards that care about counters, but red is a strange bedfellow for this gameplan. Scrappy Bruiser lets us reset our backup cards. Temporarily gifting Karthus Depthguard double-strike or flying is a nightmare for opponents. However, most of the cards in this format don't need additional support to be good.

This deck has to decide if it's a Kor Halberd deck or an Inspired Charge deck. The equipment has an excellent rate, but it's unclear if this will be a good format for equipment. It moves around for one mana, and vigilance matters when we're fighting for battles. If we have multiple Ral's Reinforcements and Knight of the New Coalition, we will want to optimize the instant for an alpha strike, and the RW battle Invasion of Kylem // Valor's Reach Tag Team plays to that strategy.

RB: Sacrifice

RB sacrifice usually needs to hit three checkpoints to work. The steal effect, the sacrifice effects, and the ability to generate fodder.

The Threaten effect is at uncommon, which is a knock against the deck. That being said, Furnace Reins has incredible stats in the archetype, where it boasts a 61.1% GIH WR and an outstanding 7.7% IWD.

There are a number of sacrifice outlets in the format at both common and uncommon. Akki Scrapchomper lets us play a longer, value-oriented game by sacrificing lands, but it cannot sacrifice non-artifact creatures. Be careful if this is how you plan on finishing off a Threaten-ed creature. There are plenty of other options though.

Sac outlets

Scorn-Blade Berserker has also impressed, though frequently, it's best to play it on one and get the free damage before cycling it. This format isn't as fast as others, and getting the Berserker down early can represent some valuable damage. The quantity of outlets is a relative strength when comparing this archetype to other formats.

There are some solid options for sacrifice fodder as well. Ral's Reinforcements, Ichor Drinker and even Nezumi's Informant are reasonable options here.

Like all red decks, this will be a great home for Pyretic Prankster. Nezumi Freewheeler has been an all-star in small sample size. It helps this deck grind. Together, these two let this deck play a slower game. It does this surprisingly well, though we definitely need to put our opponents on a clock.

Add some removal and a bomb, and you have a pretty strong iteration of a timeless classic.

Some Perspective

MOM appears to be a pretty complex format. There's a lot going on, and the cards are extremely powerful (though it does feel like I've been saying that a lot in recent months). The early data will definitely shift, but the current information represents a reasonable sample size. Don't be quick to dismiss it.

Are you enjoying March of the Machine as much as I am? What archetypes are working best for you? And what commons have I understold? Let me know in the comments. Until then, I'll be drafting!

Relentless Appetites: Why You Should Build a Rule 0 Commander Deck

Posted on April 20, 2023April 19, 2023 by Joe Mauri

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What are Rule 0 decks? Essentially, they are decks that break the normal rules of the game and require permission from the table to allow them.

Some examples of Rule 0 possibilities include using banned cards and silver-bordered or acorn stamped cards, or adding a mechanic that does not appear on the card (but probably should). One might think that this only applies to casual games, but they would be wrong. There are "no banned list" events for various competitive formats, and they are increasing in frequency. Another thing to consider is that EDREC shows a small number of submitted decks with cards that cannot be played without Rule 0 help. Yes, this does happen "in the wild."

So, should you build a Rule 0 Commander deck? It's a deckbuilding question that is somewhat uncommon, but getting more frequent as new cards often beg the question.

Cards That Already "Break" the Rules

Do you recall a time when Relentless Rats was limited to a one-of in Commander? The original idea of EDH was that it was, in fact, Highlander. However, once Commander's very fundamental limitation of one copy per card was removed, the floodgates continued to open ever wider. Furthermore, the format has reached a point where there are a massive number of functionally equivalent cards, so it's a bit disingenuous to say it's truly a Highlander format anymore. This is where a Rule 0 deck can give you a little bit more flavor to work with if you're interested in expanding your deckbuilding horizons.

Contrary to what Mark Rosewater says, people are regularly making Rule 0 decks. This has been true of my experiences every week at casual Commander, both on SpellTable and since 1994. The one unifying principle I can ascribe to Magic players is, paradoxically, diversity. We all collect, trade, and play this game for many different reasons. Deckbuilding is equally diverse.

Some Cards That Need a Small Push

Hedron Alignment is a perfect alternate win condition card, except it is functionally impossible in Commander. Rule 0 is the fix! Allow four copies, and instead of stifling player creativity, watch as one or two players try and incorporate the card into an existing archetype. This is not going to make your games worse, less fun, or less interactive. If anything it's going to add another element to fight over, or allow the game to develop a little bit more before concluding.

Remember Caw-Blade? Letting the spirit of this deck relive its glory days in the Commander format is completely within bounds. Is any table, from casual to competitive, really threatened by three additional 1/1 Birds? Let loose the hawks of war and see that it adds to the history and flavor of a deck without offensively upping its power.

Undead Servant is another story entirely, as it works in a completely different way and is four mana. If you allow an unlimited amount of copies in a deck, it's still easily countered via graveyard hate, and only accelerates well with many, many copies. I think that some, but not all, Zombie decks would love to have maybe ten or so copies, but none would go all in. The only way to find out would be to show up with a Rule 0 deck and see!

There are plenty of cards with the same template of getting multiple copies, and under normal rules, they are functionally useless. However, with a little bit of creativity and the permission of the table, you can be free to experiment with these cards. It's called "the Gathering," right? Keep in mind that future themes will develop, so it helps to have an open mind when new deckbuilding opportunities arise.

Just Some Broken Things

In terms of competitive viability, there are powerful mechanics to build around. Players already use Thrummingstone with Rats and Petitioners. There are plenty of cards that combo here, like Cathar's Crusade or Impact Tremors.

For a much more abusive combo, Cadaverous Bloom allows you to turn your creature search spell into extremely large quantities of mana. Broken? Well, that ends up being a five-cost enchantment with another three-cost creature spell to get massive, but not unlimited, mana. Eight mana to not necessarily end the game on the spot is far from out of the question in casual games. Plus, think about the openers in a deck that has 30 copies of Battalion Foot Soldier. Can you keep two in your opening seven? That doesn't sound very unfair.

Alternatively, using Lost Legacy on your own creature can result in a thinned deck and a pile of card draw, a potential wincon alongside another card like Thassa's Oracle or Laboratory Maniac. Clearly these are additional ways to win, but nowhere near the absolute most efficient or competitive, especially using the cards mentioned. Furthermore, that card and others like it are counters to your own strategy. Imagine someone playing Meddling Mage, Nevermore or Declaration of Naught against you.

Finally there's Zombie Infestation, which I think is one of the most broken interactions if you powered up Gathering Throng or Battalion Foot Solidier with a no limit Rule 0. This means that you could T2 Infestation, T3 search 50 cards and put 25 2/2 Zombies without haste into play. Maybe you kill one player, maybe. However, this relies on everything going your way, and there are so many commonly-played cards like Propaganda and any four-mana board wipe that stop you from winning the game. To me, it feels like a classic degenerate deck, which I think are fun to see once but not regularly. The fact is, you do not need Rule 0 help to build degenerate decks, so there is little point.

In or Out? Mostly Out

Wish-type cards have always been a little bit controversial in Commander, and for good reason. The idea is that within your 100 card deck, you really ought to have plenty of room for a variety of cards. However, we've blown away that limitation, and demonstrated you have access to far more than 100 cards in modern Commander. That means that cards that reference even more cards from outside the game don't make a whole lot of sense in the format. Beyond being format flavor fails, functional Wish effects are simply too powerful.

That's why I bring up both Booster Tutor and Ring of Ma'Ruf as counter-examples. You need a vastly high degree of randomness and/or a massive cost, in Ring's case ten mana and a skipped draw, to make these cards merely interesting and not game-ending. Most of the Wish effects at two or three mana, however, are simply too good to allow. To Rule 0 them in a high powered, no-banned-list-level environment makes sense, but not for lower-powered games where more fun cards like Booster Tutor can spice up a game without ruining it.

Flavor With Some Power

This is an example of a Rule 0 "partner with" combination that is played at one of my local stores. There's nothing extra powerful about this pairing, in fact, Edgar Markov is more powerful. However, because of the thematic nature of a set featuring Vampires getting married, you know, literal partners, maybe they could have had the partner with mechanic? They made Wedding Ring and Rhoda, Geist Avenger and Timin, Youthful Geist, but somehow missed an obvious flavor slam-dunk. Well, one local Commander player stepped up to the plate and succeeded where Wizards failed. This pairing has never been vetoed because it's not overpowered and makes too much sense. I also suggested to them that they include three copies of Wedding Invitation, one for each other player.

Furthermore, many Planeswalkers are suitable as commanders even if they lack rules text saying so. We know this because Oathbreaker is now a recognized format! So yeah, the community is better at this than Wizards, and Wizards knows it. Obviously Oathbreaker is not a one-for-one analogue for Commander, but it is pretty darn close. If parts of the Magic community can come to this conclusion without express company endorsement, can't we all?

Not a Waste of Time; a Time Investment

So should you build a Commander deck that utilizes Rule 0? Absolutely. Unquestionably. Maybe? I'm joking; of course you should! Deckbuilding is a skill like any other, and building under even loose limitations increases your experience. Sometimes, breaking a limitation shows you why it is in place and even how you can work around it. There is always value to perspective, even a completely different one from the norm. So do yourself a favor, not only for fun and flavor's sake, but also to increase your flexibility, awareness, and adaptability to future printings and developments

Have you ever built a deck using Rule 0 in Commander? Would you allow one at your table? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Testing with MOM: Unexpected Success

Posted on April 19, 2023April 19, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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Every spoiler season is another opportunity to relearn what is actually good in Modern. There are so many new cards entering that, even when the broader metagame doesn't measurably change, specific matchups can be reshuffled thanks to new sideboard cards, role-players, and even lands. Also, despite years of trying, nobody has ever accurately predicted what cards will actually have an impact on every format. Testing often reveals unexpected additions, which is what happened to me this week as I tried a couple of March of the Machine cards in Modern, including a battle!

Testing in Gobakhan

As I mentioned last week, the battles were quite underwhelming. The only one I thought might actually see play as intended was Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array, mainly thanks to its cheap cost and low defense. The fact that the back synergizes with attacking battles was a nice bonus, but I wasn't expecting too much from the card. That said, it's a natural fit into Modern decks I like, so of course I tested it.

Mono-White Humans, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Esper Sentinel

4 Dauntless Bodyguard

4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

4 Luminarch Aspirant

4 Thalia's Lieutenant

3 Adeline, Resplendent Cathar

4 Solitude

Battles

4 Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array

Sorceries

4 Emeria's Call // Emeria, Shattered Skyclave

Instants

4 Shining Shoal

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls

2 Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire

4 Mutavault

7 Plains

To begin, I grabbed a Mono-White Humans list I saw while gathering data for the metagame update and moved some numbers around to fit in Invasion. I'd also like to take this opportunity to thank the players working on this deck for cutting Chancellor of the Annex. A card that you'll never cast, can use only if it's in your opening hand, and whose primary purpose was to be pitched was never going to work out. Shining Shoal, on the other hand, was a great card to rediscover.

Confusing Discoveries

While I always try to keep an open mind, I was very skeptical of Invasion going in. Just because I said it was the most plausible didn't mean I thought it would actually be successful. However, a very strange thing happened. Invasion was good; playably good. Maybe even meta-shakingly good. That wasn't even factoring in Lightshield Array; the front side by itself was shockingly playable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array

Cheap disruption is always playable, especially when it's a disruption effect that a color doesn't often get. White doesn't get direct hand disruption often, and Elite Spellbinder is just a little too slow for Modern. Wrenn and Six existing doesn't help, but regardless, Spellbinder always feels a half-turn too slow in the current metagame. Invasion being cheaper for the same ability means that the disruption is a bit more timely, and thus more powerful.

Lost the Beat

One aspect of Invasion's power has been players forgetting they can cast the exiled spell. Unlike Spell Queller- or Banisher Priest-type effects, opponents don't get the card back if Spellbinder or Invasion die. Thus, the spell is simply exiled, rather than put under them, and it's easy to forget that it's special as the game goes on. This doesn't really impact playability in a vacuum, but it is worth mentioning, especially since the card is new.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elite Spellbinder

Instead, what I didn't appreciate (because it had never come up before) was how disruptive it was to remove a spell from a hand. That Thoughtseize is disruptive is well-known, but Invasion lets them cast the spell down the line. If it was straight-up Castigate there'd have been nothing to discover. However, even if the spell is cast down the line, often times it's lost a lot of its bite by then.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Castigate

Sometimes, it's simply a case of an opening hand needing to play certain spells in a certain order to win. Take a link from the chain and the whole thing falls. Others, it's simply that a spell isn't good at the new mana cost. Expressive Iteration is quite mediocre, almost aggressively so, at four mana instead of two. It's like throwing a dance off by a few beats.

Compare with Thalia

The other unexpected result of my testing was how Invasion works alongside Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Based on Pioneer experience with Spellbinder, I expected Thalia to be the main disrupter, with Invasion to simply be clean-up. As it turned out, the impact of Spellbinding something at two mana is very different than at three.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Thalia introduces inefficiency into a noncreature-based deck's gameplan. To use engines as an analogy, Thalia removes the grease from the gears. It's damaging, but might not be a killer. Thoughtseize is like throwing a wrench in the gears. It might shut everything down, or it might just get spit out of the machine. Spellbinder was like sticking a screwdriver in a critical gear after Thalia removed the grease.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

Invasion is more like throwing a log of wood into the gears. It will rattle the engine and gum it up, but a robust one will eventually work it out. That's worse than Seize, but better than Spellbinder. There was a time that Kitesail Freebooter was a staple in Humans (Unholy Heat proved its final straw), and it filled a similar role. In the current metagame, Invasion being a noncreature spell and thus immune to Heat and Push was almost an advantage, making this effect much more lasting.

About the Array

It occurs to me that I've spent all this article on the surprisingly good frontside, and have been ignoring the back. In my initial evaluation, I thought that Lightshield Array was the big upside that would actually make the card playable. After testing, I'm cooler on Array.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

Don't get me wrong, a few extra Thalia's Lieutenant triggers go a long way to winning a game, and may well put the game away against any fair deck. However, it wasn't especially common to have many creatures left to receive counters, and rarer to have the Array around. The sacrifice ability was frequently invaluable, and as testing progressed, opponents frequently tried to get me to pop it as quickly as possible. Trading Array for Fury is a pretty good deal.

Bottom Line

I am very surprised at how much better Invasion of Gobakhan is and how medium Lightshield Array has turned out. That said, I'm not sure that Humans was the best test platform. The lack of synergy with the rest of the deck and being impacted by Thalia were major sticking points. I'm currently testing it in a Death and Taxes-style deck, where netting multiple triggers thanks to Flickerwisp is quite appealing. But the bottom line is that Invasion is much more playable in Modern than anticipated.

Diet Hogaak

Remember the early days of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis? How the deck was a mill-combo deck first, and a graveyard beatdown deck second? I've been testing Kroxa and Kunoros with Altar of Dementia, and while it is nowhere near as good as Hogaak, it certainly has shades of that deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kroxa and Kunoros

For some context, I see a lot of different decks gathering metagame data. A lot of decks are trying to cheat Atraxa, Grand Unifier into play, and the more glass cannon-y versions are gaining ground. While other sites list them as Reanimator decks, they're much closer to Legacy Tin Fins than Reanimator. It's about getting a big legendary threat out cheaply, gaining value, and then letting it die rather than keeping it around. This seemed like a natural fit for Altar as a value play, so I'd just need to add Kroxa and Thassa's Oracle

Combo Kroxa

This was actually a harder fit than I thought. There are two versions of turbo Atraxa, one featuring Ephemerate and the other, The Underworld Cookbook. The former is more robust, but the latter makes more sense for my purpose, so I modified it and started testing.

Kroxa's Kitchen, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar

3 Ovalchase Daredevil

4 Atraxa, Grand Unifier

4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

1 Kroxa and Kunoros

1 Thassa's Oracle

Sorceries

4 Profane Tutor

1 Bone Shards

4 Thoughtseize

Instants

4 Goryo's Vengeance

Artifacts

2 Blood Fountain

4 The Underworld Cookbook

1 Altar of Dementia

Lands

1 Blood Crypt

2 Bloodstained Mire

4 Blooming Marsh

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

2 Overgrown Tomb

4 Swamp

4 Urza's Saga

4 Verdant Catacombs

Between Profane Tutor and Atraxa, I didn't feel like I needed more than one of each combo piece. I can't cast Oracle or Kroxa, but the deck was intended as a proof of concept. I wasn't planning on playing drawn-out matches where I needed to. I just wanted to see whether the combo fit in.

I Forgot Something

The short answer was kinda. Altar fit in quite well, anyway. Not casting legends is what the Atraxa decks are about, so the mana wasn't an issue. Even without going for the combo, getting an Atraxa trigger, attacking, and then sacrificing Atraxa to Altar usually set up the next Goryo's Vengeance perfectly, making that Altar worth the card. Thanks to Profane's searches and Atraxa's draws, finding Altar was less of a problem than anticipated despite being a one-of, and this quickly set up a self-sustaining cycle of deadly value. Not having to exile Atraxa was nice value, too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Altar of Dementia

That said, adding the combo made the deck significantly worse. The combo wasn't bad, but it was only sometimes necessary. Vengeance for Atraxa and repeat was usually good enough. However, the biggest problem was Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. I forgot that when Emrakul is milled it shuffles the graveyard back into the deck. This made it impossible to actually combo off. Whoops, time to try again.

Kroxa 2.0

For the second try, I removed Emrakul, and added some more Altars and a Kroxa and another discard outlet. I wasn't interested in straying too far from accepted norms on the deck.

Kroxa's New Kitchen, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar

3 Ovalchase Daredevil

4 Atraxa, Grand Unifier

2 Kroxa and Kunoros

1 Thassa's Oracle

Sorceries

4 Profane Tutor

1 Bone Shards

4 Thoughtseize

Instants

4 Goryo's Vengeance

Artifacts

3 Blood Fountain

4 The Underworld Cookbook

3 Altar of Dementia

Lands

1 Blood Crypt

2 Bloodstained Mire

4 Blooming Marsh

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

2 Overgrown Tomb

4 Swamp

4 Urza's Saga

4 Verdant Catacombs

While this deck wasn't capable of the free-ish wins that Emrakul can deliver, it did work closer to my intentions. Alter filling the graveyard off Atraxa ensured that the combo could happen, and the deck got thin enough often enough that it was rare to not find a Kroxa if I wanted to try and combo. Each cycle of Vengeance and sacrifice saw 17 cards, after all.

The lingering question was whether this was better than the standard plan of just bashing with Atraxas or Emrakul. I'm not sure I have an answer. This deck is more vulnerable to graveyard hate like Endurance but less vulnerable to Solitude or Ensnaring Bridge. The nuance leads me to believe that there is real potential here. It is more waiting for the right metagame than not being viable.

Bottom Line

Assuming they aren't already, Vengeance players should seriously consider retooling their deck around Altar. There's a lot of value to be had there, and even without the combo, the option to just mill out the opponent rather than exile the legends is attractive. The combo fits in without problem, but it felt like a Plan C and might not be necessary.

Expect the Unexpected

Testing only rarely confirms suspicions. Magic is so complex that there's always something new to discover, and some things are more powerful than they appear. My results from March of the Machine testing aren't what I expected. How are you all doing? If you've found something surprising, drop it in the comments!

Stumbling Through the Magic Art Market

Posted on April 17, 2023April 17, 2023 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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One activity that really surprised me during my vacation to Texas a couple of weeks ago was the Museum of Fine Arts. It’s not that I don’t appreciate world-class artwork, but I was concerned that my kids would lose interest quickly and that the activity would be a way to kill a couple of hours at best.

The outcome exceeded my expectations, and we all found different pieces that we enjoyed for various reasons. My wife was eager to see a few of the big names the museum had to offer (Monet, Van Gogh, Picasso, etc.), my kids enjoyed the interactive, modern art exhibits, and I enjoyed the historical pieces, going back before 1000 B.C.

The experience piqued my interest in artwork in general, so I decided to join the MTG Art Market Facebook group. Boy was I unprepared for what lay within!

Some Background

First, I need to provide a little context. Despite being an avid fan of many of the game’s classic art pieces, I never seriously explored original Magic art ownership. I think there was a part of me that always valued having a card over a piece of art because I was a player of the game for so many years.

In fact, the only time I ever inquired about purchasing a piece of Magic art was in 2013, when I stumbled upon Douglas Shuler’s email address and contacted him directly about pieces he had for sale. We talked specifics for a couple of pieces, including Soldier of Fortune, Homarid Spawning Bed, and an un-set card that never saw print, Que Serra Serra.

Passing on Douglas’s offer to purchase these pieces was one of the worst Magic finance decisions I made in my career. While the pieces we discussed were small, the pricing was also very reasonable—I’m 100% confident if I had purchased any of the original artworks we discussed via emails, they would have looked amazing on my wall while also appreciating in value significantly.

Alas, I made the wrong decision and passed on the offers. Fast forwarding to 2023, I still own zero original artwork pieces from Magic.

Newfound Interest?

Now that I sold the majority of my collection (value-wise), I’ve shifted focus away from speculating/investing in Magic cards and towards other interests. Don’t get me wrong, I still buy and sell a card now and then, and I’ll continue to write about any interesting financial opportunities I am pursuing. The days of daily #MTGMail deliveries, however, are a thing of the past.

With a decreased interest in acquiring cards for my collection, where should I channel my focus? Original Magic art came to mind as a possibility once again, a decade after the last time I investigated it. Only this time I have a house with space designated for displaying my nerdy hobbies and I don’t play paper Magic much anymore. This could be the perfect opportunity to take a small portion of my Magic card proceeds to find a neat art piece to hang on my wall!

Unfortunately, I know virtually nothing about this market. As someone without original art knowledge, I had no clue how to proceed. I learned a bit by reading through Paul Comeau's high-level review on collecting Magic art, but I still had many unanswered questions.

Where to Start?

Serendipitously, I received an email from a modern-day Magic artist about a couple of auctions she was posting for some Magic-related sketches she had drawn. Her name is Zara Alfonso, and she’s created artwork for numerous recognizable cards, including Slip Out The Back, Shalai's Acolyte, and Tenacious Underdog.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tenacious Underdog

She happened to create sketches for a couple of cards in March of the Machine, including Nahiri's Warcrafting and Kithkin Billyrider. “Perfect,” I thought to myself. “I can check out her auctions and maybe acquire an affordable, recent piece to hang on my wall.”

Well, it wasn’t quite so simple. It turns out Magic artwork buying is a highly contested market! Unlike in 2013, when I explored the possibility of acquiring artwork by emailing Douglas Shuler directly, one does not simply email an artist to inquire about available pieces for sale anymore. With the soaring popularity of owning original Magic art, the market has streamlined itself into a well-oiled machine.

Stumbling Block #1

For example, after I clicked on the email from Zara Alfonso, I was directed to her website. There on the site was a link to the auctions, which brought me to Facebook of all places! I was not expecting this redirect.

It turns out many artists auction their original work using this Facebook group. This makes sense when I think about it. The popularity of both Magic and Magic art has soared in recent years—I’m sure artists don’t want to deal with endless emails inquiring about their work. Auctioning art in a central location means a streamlined process and, hopefully, maximum value for the artists themselves.

Stumbling Block #2

I had to request permission to join this Facebook group, and my access was granted shortly after. Then a post was created welcoming all new members over the past few days—it was heartwarming to be welcomed by the group, as my Imposter Syndrome flared up. Everyone starts somewhere, though, so I hope I earn my stripes soon enough.

The next thing I had to learn about was the format of these artwork auctions. It’s not just willy-nilly bidding with the high bidder taking the prize like an eBay auction. Instead, there are a number of rules I had to familiarize myself with.

For example, here are the terms for Zara Alfonso’s sketch auctions:

Starting the auction now and it ends at 10:00 pm Eastern New York time on Sunday April 16th. We are looking for a $400.00 opening bid. Please bid in $25 minimum increases. Any bid made within the last 10 minutes of the end will cause the auction to extend 10 minutes from that bid time until there are no bids for a full 10 minutes. If I do not know you and you have no reference in the art market, you will be required to make a fully refundable 10% deposit (if you lose) on Pay Pal. This is for the safety of all bidders. Payment will be made directly to Zara by bank transfer, or Pay Pal friends or family, or Pay Pal purchase adding 4.1% for Canadian(5% for non Canadian). Shipping will depend on final price and where you are located on this planet compared to her in Western Canada. Pm me, Mark Aronowitz. Thanks, Mark and Zara Alfonso.

Choosing an end time, starting bid, and bid increments I completely understand. The bid sniping proofing with the 10-minute clause is something I can adjust to easily enough. Since I’ll have no references in the art market specifically (I’m not sure if I’m known enough outside of my little Old School / Magic finance sphere), I’m going to be expected to make a 10% deposit via PayPal. Then there are the fees, additional currency considerations, and shipping from Canada.

OK then, this is starting to get complicated. I’m certain there are ways to acquire original art without going through the Facebook route, but to a newcomer, it does feel like this is the marketplace for Magic art.

Stumbling Block #3

I’ve already overcome stumbling block 1 by finding the Facebook marketplace and gaining access to the group. Stumbling block 2 isn’t going to be hard to overcome and I don’t mind making a deposit and covering shipping. The third, and most challenging (for me) stumbling block, is the price tag.

Original artwork is expensive! These artists deserve every penny, so I don’t mean to shortchange them. I was just blown away by the demand in this market. My naivete inquires, with 1000s of new cards with unique art being released every year, wouldn’t there be ample supply for purchasing? Would not that ample supply lead to some affordable pieces for purchase?

Perhaps not. Looking at some of the recent auctions on the Facebook page, I’m seeing sketches bid up to nearly $1000. Colored paintings, such as this beautiful art for the Cloud of Fairies reprint by Iris Compiet, is bid up to $4000 so far!

Clearly, I have much yet to learn.

Wrapping It Up

The jury is still out on whether or not I’ll be purchasing any original Magic art pieces. I suspect there may be some smaller, less complete pieces that would sell for a price that falls more within my budget. At that point, however, is it worth my purchasing? I mean, hanging a tiny pencil sketch on my wall won’t exactly have the presence I’m interested in.

I have learned so much over my thus far brief foray into the world of original Magic art. The market is organized, streamlined, and highly competitive. This doesn’t mean I’m barred from participating, of course, but it does mean I need to decide if I’m serious about the pursuit. It would appear one does not luck into an inexpensive piece of artwork these days.

Perhaps with enough patience, I’ll stumble upon a piece that resonates with me, yet is affordable. Until that day occurs, however, I’ll continue to marvel at the beauty (and expense) of these beautiful pieces of art… just like I did at the art museum a couple of weeks ago.

March of the Machine: Format Dynamics and 10 Best Commons

Posted on April 14, 2023April 14, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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The sun sets and rises again. So it is for Limited formats. March of the Machine (MOM) arrives this weekend, and with it new cards, keywords, and most intriguing of all, a new card type. Battles are the ninth card type in Magic, and the first addition to the roster since planeswalkers were introduced in Lorwyn. That was in 2007. For those keeping score at home, it's been sixteen years since a new card type debuted, so let's get right to it.

Battles and the Other Keywords

Battles are a new double-faced permanent. They can be attacked, similar to planeswalkers. Unlike planeswalkers, however, the player casting the battle chooses an opponent to defend them. They provide the caster a bonus when they enter the battlefield, and if we're able to deal them enough damage to "defeat" the battle (note: not destroy), then it flips and we get a second effect from them, usually a creature.

For example, Invasion of Ulgrotha offers a five-mana Lightning Helix at sorcery speed. Each damage we deal it removes a defense counter. If we remove all five, the card flips, unlocking Grandmother Ravi Sengir. Opponents can try to protect it via blocks or otherwise. They also can destroy it with cards like Atraxa's Fall.

Though none are as novel as battles, other keywords will lay their fingerprints on the format as well. Backup gives creatures some modality as they enter the battlefield. They can enter with a +1/+1 counter, or they can give that counter to another creature. If they do, that creature inherits all subsequent abilities until end of turn.

Golden-Scale Aeronaut can be a 3/4 flyer, or a 2/3 flyer that gives another creature a +1/+1 counter and flying until end of turn.

Additionally, convoke returns, allowing creatures to tap and pay for spells bearing that keyword. Incubate is an ability that creates a token in waiting. A creature with Incubate X creates an Incubator Token, a dormant artifact, with X +1/+1 counters on it. For two mana, the token awakens into a 0/0 Phyrexian who still bears those counters. Remember: the Phyrexian token will not have summoning sickness if the Incubator was in play at the beginning of the turn.

How Keywords Shape This Format

MOM's keywords imply that this will be an aggressive format.

Backup is an ability that favors attacking. Battles generate value through the midgame. If we're ahead on board, we're able to pressure battles and unlock that battle. Pressure in MOM is different, though, then it was in ONE. Battles create detours from the opponent's life total, which will lead to longer games. Defeating a battle can help fortify those we need to defend. While early starts won't end with the swift lethality of the last format, they will create devastating advantage, which may end the game some time after. Whereas ONE was clearly an aggressive format, this one will be defined by aggression's crafty brother: tempo. Get ahead, and try to stay ahead.

Furthermore, convoke only works when we have creatures on board. Otherwise we're just overpaying for these spells. If we get on board early, we position ourselves to generate board advantage and mana efficiency. This might not be a lightning-fast format, but we still want to curve out.

Incubate tokens counter this strategy. These tokens take two mana to activate, but they're bigger than other tokens in this design space. As aggressive decks storm the midgame, trying to flip battles, these tokens will stand as massive barriers in their way.

Extra Jumbo Eggs

Incubate can provide the defensive bulk needed to play a slower game. By defending our opponent's battles, we can strand card advantage and pull ahead in the late game. If we can't, we're likely to fall behind and stay there.

Can We Trust These Two-Drops?

When previewing a format, we should examine the two-drops. There are no Barbed Batterfists or Duelist of Deep Faiths to get excited over. This might be a hedge against the power of backup-driven starts. If we can get uncommon and rare two-drops, then we can play a better aggressive game. The last time I felt this way was in DMU, where the best aggressive decks wanted multiple uncommon two-drops.

The tension between challenging battles and backing up attackers against the slower midrange pace of the Phyrexian-themed spells will define this format. If we're not pressuring our opponents early, we want to stabilize as soon as possible. Using an instant-speed burn spell to flip a battle, or using the discounts on convoke cards or Ephara's Dispersal, all help with recovery. Tempo plays like these, and even timely combat tricks, will represent massive moments in individual games.

Furthermore, removal is at a premium in this format. There are plenty of bombs that will threaten to take over games, and being able to remove a key blocker to defeat a battle will help to snowball advantage. The best removal spells will help us flip our board position, and those are represented highly on our top common list.

Ranking the Top Commons

There was an error retrieving a chart for Overgrown Pest

10) Overgrown Pest: This card is getting compared to Carnivorous Vorroc for all the obvious reasons, but the downgraded stats are very meaningful. ONE's best common was often the biggest creature on the board when it resolved. This card won't be. While picking up a battle will feel powerful, I'm not sure a 2/2 on three will put us in a prime spot to capitalize on it. The card should be good, but not spectacular.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Converter Beast

9) Converter Beast: This card has a lot of stats... for admittedly a lot of work. For four mana, we get to incubate five, and the 0/1 theoretically defends our life total while we wait for the egg to hatch. The format has support for tokens and Phyrexians and even +1/+1 counters, but the card that makes me excited about this Beast is Scrollshift. It's possible that the instant is the card we need to prioritize if this hidden archetype materializes, but at least in the early weeks, we should be able to get it late.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ichor Drinker

8) Ichor Drinker: A one-drop with lifelink that dies into a 2/2? Sign me up. This card will be a nuisance in aggressive decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cosmic Hunger

7) Cosmic Hunger: Instant-speed bite that can hit battles and planeswalkers is great. Especially because it can defeat battles at instant speed, unlocking a hidden blocker or end-step attacker. We need to make sure we have the right creature suite to support this, but it should be strong in most green decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alabaster Host Intercessor

6) Alabaster Host Intercessor: Six-mana commons are not frequently admitted to this list. This one has Plainscycling, so there's some inherent flexibility there. The most interesting aspect, however, is using these to facilitate a splash, where the first one not only helps cast a splash-worthy rare, but also all subsequent versions of this Samurai. It's a powerful effect, and I love the way it increases threat density as we move into the late game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ephara's Dispersal

5) Ephara's Dispersal: Cheap interaction with surveil tacked on. This is a blowout against big incubate tokens, and much better on defense, where we can stabilize off of the mana-advantage this generates. In the aggressive decks, it will push damage and still be fine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for War Historian

4) War Historian: The other green three-drop gets the attention. However, War Historian will challenge opponents on creature sizing, while generating value on battles and being an excellent landing place for backup counters. Pest is a good card, but this three-drop could end up the scourge of the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deadly Derision

3) Deadly Derision: Killing things is good. Treasure is good. Instant-speed Grim Bounty is good.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Spite

2) Volcanic Spite: The debate between the second- and third-best commons comes down to the nature of the format. Both will thrive here. In addition to being excellent removal spells, each can help flip tempo. However, the ability to finish off a battle at instant speed to provide a flash blocker while allowing us to rummage puts the Fire Prophecy ahead by a hair.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Preening Champion

1) Preening Champion: This card does it all. It provides evasive pressure for battles. It's a Knight for archetype synergies. It creates two bodies for convoke synergies. The token is even "blue and red" so we can pay for Stoke the Flames. The best common in the set appears to be preen-ordained.

Prerelease Weekend

This weekend marks the first chance many of us will have with the new cards. With all of the high-powered rares, battles, and even a multiverse legend in each pack, this format will be a unique experience, and one that should mature nicely. There are creative build-arounds, new mechanics, and plenty of powerful effects that should make this weekend an interesting one.

What commons did I miss? What archetypes look the strongest? How many times did you accidentally call it "March of the Machines" before being corrected? Let me know in the comments, and good luck this weekend!

I Built a Deck with All Number 13s That Doesn’t Need Luck to Win

Posted on April 13, 2023April 13, 2023 by Joe Mauri

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The universe aligned to bring you this article on the 13th of April, a special day for more than one reason. I have always been fascinated by 13 as a number and how it is associated with crummy luck, something that as a Magic player I am all too familiar with. So I set out to build a Commander deck with all number 13s and leave the rest to chance.

The result? A challenging deck to build, acquire, and play that offered a unique experience not only come game time, but also during construction. Top-down deckbuilding in this way can be fun, rewarding, and illuminating. Let's dive into my process and the payoffs I discovered!

How Does This Work?

The wonderful people over at Scryfall have got an amazing tool to help us with this bad luck build. Imagine having to comb through set after set looking for that 13th card; it would take forever! Luckily, with just a couple of pieces of syntax in "number:13 t:legend," we can quickly find all the legendary permanents that are card number 13 in their respective expansions. Here are my top choices for a commander.

Could we even do a mono-colored commander for this deck? Searching with only "number:13" yields a scant 285 total choices, and that's in all five colors. By adding "id:w,u,r," we learn that there are 239 white, blue or red color identity cards to choose from, or just over 80% of all the results. Sorry, green and black! Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader is our lucky winner (and unlucky commander).

Next, there is a handy sorting button for people pressed for time or those lacking inspiration. Why sort by name, or price, when you can sort by EDHREC Rank. Taking a quick look shows me that I won't want for power. Yes, my choices for infinite combos are pretty limited, but there is decent removal in Farewell, Disenchant, Crush Contraband and Condemn, along with a bunch of other perfectly usable cards. But what about spicy cards? What about thematic cards? There's more here than I could ever hope for!

The Spice

On a purely thematic level, I'd be a fool not to include Death or Glory and Misfortune's Gain. A lot of the removal and interaction of the deck is combat-based, and I have a great selection of cards from many different sets, including Grey Knight Paragon straight from the 40k universe. I'm excited to give Mirror Match a try, as it seems like a crazy powerful card even if it's so much mana.

Also, I included Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth just because I can. As it is a colorless land with no color identity, I can safely add it to the deck even though there is no current usage for it. It just seemed like the right thing to do! It is a 13, after all, and giving players black mana can create diplomacy opportunities in rare cases.

I leave Gathering Throng for last because it's a potentially deck-defining card with a Rule 0 adjustment. In the future, I might consider playing exactly 13 copies of the Throng if the deck does not have enough of a distinct identity; however, that would be a large change, and necessitate a lot of rebuilding. Still, it's an idea for the future.

Pricy Printings... How Unlucky

Not just any Divert can go into the deck. Nope, to get that "13," I have to buy the special Amonkhet Invocation printing. Luckily, it's one of the lowest-priced cards of that type, but still not a common card to come by at all.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Divert

Elspeth, Knight-Errant can go in, but only the 2014 Modern Event Deck printing. It's budget-breaking but the Kaladesh Invocation of Hangarback Walker is also a choice down the road. I own plenty of copies of Land Tax, including an original Legends print, but not the Renaissance version I will need to acquire.

Making choices and searching out very specific cards is a mini-game all its own, and offers something to look forward to when buying collections and looking for deals.

Breaking the Rules

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mountain

This is a basic Mountain that happens to be number 13 in the set. Do I mind paying upwards of $20 for a single basic land? I've done sillier things. However, my strict options are limited. What are we to do? Cheat, but only a little. Commander 2011 has a basic Mountain numbered 313 if I want to save a little money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Island

Unstable basic Islands will set me back a few dollars, but at least it's a really cool land, I already own several, and it is #213, hardly breaking theme!

Two down, but what about our most important basic? Plains is another story entirely, but we can use the same workaround.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plains

While it's not perfect, 130 is still 13 with a zero after it, which is how many games I expect to win with this deck. I found a set of Plains, Mountain, and Island all with set number 132 - then went back and checked other numbers. So I can either use the same number for each land or make a pattern like 131, 132, 133. Options!

Being forced to build under constraints has sparked even more possibilities not only for this deck, but future ones as well, and just as an exercise this has already been vastly worth it. Not only do I have more options for my budget, but also more avenues to build in sub-themes and unique deck building constraints as well.

Turning It Up to 13

Here is where we come full circle. I strongly predict that serialized cards will, eventually, start to creep back up in price for exactly this reason. There is no end to the potential of some crazy numeric themes, and serialized cards open up worlds of possibilities. Given a few super-powerful serialized cards, I can make the deck as strong as I want... for a steep price.

Come On, Wizards...

Full stop: somehow this card is not set number 13.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Triskaidekaphile

Wizards of the Coast has continued to manufacture poor quality product, pre-damaged cards, pringled foils, poor writing, and, wrong art attribution. Every month, there's one mistake after another. On top of these repeated failures, they still make absolutely amateur level mistakes when designing cards! To not make this card set number 13? Come on. You can do better, Wizards.

Can I include this card in my deck? I could, but I think it makes more sense to deliberately leave it out as proof the game is going in too many directions, and continues to experience wild quality control issues on multiple levels both big and small. Remember the double downgrade to Hasbro stock? Well, now they are feeling their own lack of quality control and acquiring a new CFO. What did this CFO do for Harley-Davidson? Simplify the product by making fewer product offerings, exactly what Magic needs to do to avoid these continued mistakes.

The Deck List as it Stands

An Ode to 13

Commander

1 Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader

Creatures

1 False Prophet

1 High Sentinels of Arashin

1 Mahamoti Djinn

1 Dromoka Dunecaster

1 Boss's Chauffeur

1 Fairgrounds Warden

1 Flourishing Fox

1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

1 Rune-Tail, Kitsune Ascendant // Rune-Tail's Essence

1 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir

1 Shivan Dragon

1 Vedalken Humiliator

1 Reya Dawnbringer

1 Helionaut

1 Portal Mage

1 Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier

1 Karmic Guide

1 Kor Cartographer

1 Giver of Runes

1 Archaeomancer

1 Flickerwisp

1 Eldrazi Displacer

1 Containment Priest

1 Crystal Dragon // Rob the Hoard

1 Mageta The Lion

1 Gathering Throng

Non-Creatures

1 Haunting Imitation

1 Condemn

1 Death or Glory

1 Fierce Retribution

1 Farewell

1 Disenchant

1 Crush Contraband

1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

1 Gideon, Champion of Justice

1 Benevolent Blessing

1 Blessed Alliance

1 Dawn Charm

1 Descend upon the Sinful

1 Devouring Light

1 Divert

1 Elspeth Conquers Death

1 Forsake the Worldly

1 Gideon Blackblade

1 Brainstorm

1 Land Tax

1 Marshaling Cry

1 Mirror Match

1 Misfortune's Gain

1 Negate

1 Prison Term

1 Unsummon

1 Hyena Umbra

1 Justiciar's Portal

Lands

1 Strip Mine

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

1 Tolaria West

11 Island

21 Plains

10 Mountain

What does the deck do? Well, it establishes board presence with a bevy of expensive permanents and also has a lot of endurance. So many cards grab permanents from the graveyard or flicker things back into play for enters-the-battlefield triggers. That's about half of the deck.

The other half? Lots and lots of removal. So we are either winning on board or it's time to reset the game with a wipe and then start getting permanents back with Death or Glory, Reya Dawnbringer, or Karmic Guide and Eldrazi Displacer.

I think it will hold its own in lower-powered games at the five or six mark. Admittedly, it will indeed rely on good luck to win games a lot of the time. However, I'll continue to be on the lookout for upgrades, and if serialized cards get cheap they'll go directly into the deck. Maybe, one day, even Sol Ring will have a 13 on it.

Looking Ahead

Maintaining decks like this one gives players like me a reason to look forward to new set releases and to scrutinize every possible angle to optimize a theme. Also, I am going to eventually build a deck where every card is in numerical sequence, and potentially a pi deck... that one is going to get complicated! In any case, I have a ton of new material to work with and will continue building, tinkering, and applying creative thinking to get the most out of build restrictions on every angle.

Do you have a number-based deck? Are you too enthusiastic about math? Which crazy deckbuilding challenges have you tried out? Let me know in the comments!

Prepare For War: March of the Machine Spoilers

Posted on April 12, 2023April 11, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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I was quiet this spoiler season. I primarily had other writing priorities, but also, there wasn't anything that I felt needed immediate attention. For better or worse, March of the Machine (MOM) is not an overly powerful set. There are numerous interesting cards and it's sure to shake up Standard, but as far as my preferred formats are concerned, nothing is an obvious fit. That said, there's an entirely new card type coming, and it needs close scrutiny.

Marching Into Battles

For the first time since Lorwyn introduced planeswalkers, Magic has a new card type. Called battles, there will be many types eventually, but for now there are only Seiges. The idea itself is interesting, though I'm quite skeptical of their actual impact outside of Standard.

When a Siege battle resolves, it gets a number of defense counters (that work exactly like planeswalker loyalty) and is then assigned a defender. The defender must be an opponent of the player casting the battle. Any other player can attack the battle. Once the last defense counter is removed, the battle is exiled, transformed, and cast. The owner of the battle then gets whatever is on the backside.

I'll go ahead and get this out of the way: because the battles are exiled, then cast as a triggered ability, Teferi, Time Raveler answers them. As the battles are cast from exile, Drannith Magistrate also answers the transformed side. That they're cast means that transformed battles can be countered. I don't think any of this affects their playability, but they are useful interactions to remember.

General Complaint

The idea is interesting, and I get the intent. However, I feel that the execution is lacking. The rules make it clear that there were multiplayer implications and intentions in making these cards, but there's no reason for any player other than the Siege's controller to attack them. Each Siege has a fairly minor, and often slightly overcosted, triggered ability on entering the battlefield, and then does nothing. There's no harm in letting a Siege sit there, nor any direct benefit for any player to attack one they don't control. The only reason to do so is to trigger the transformation and give the controller a bonus spell.

I appreciate that this will certainly change in the future, but for now, this feels really anemic and forced. If there was incentive for players to want to remove the battle, then it would make sense. If the one who defeats the battle got the transformed spell, that'd be one thing. If the battle had a continuous effect or repetitive trigger incentivizing other players to remove it, that'd be another. As-is, there's no reason for anyone beside the battle's controller and the designated defender to care. It's like Diet Archenemy.

Draft Dodging

So why does the defending player care about the battle? It's not actively hurting nor benefitting them. The backside of all the battles are decent, but not overpowering. In fact, the fact that their opponent is attacking the battle is arguably a good thing. As far as the defender is concerned, each Siege reads "Opponent gets an overcosted effect. You gain life equal to the number of defense counters on the battle plus any excess damage." The opponent gets another spell after giving you that life, but none of those spells are crippling. There are few if any that would be good enough on their own by my reckoning.

Missing in Action

Actually, having typed all that out, I'm now questioning why the controller would want to attack the battle at all. It's directly giving the opponent some amount of life and indirectly Time Walking yourself, as it will take most if not all available attacking creatures to take down the battle. That's an attack step when the opponent's life total isn't under pressure, and therefore another draw step for them. Again, the rewards for defeating a battle are good but not great, so I'm not sure it's actually worthwhile.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vampire Hexmage

Altogether, I'm now thinking that trying to use the battles as intended is not a great plan. The transformed spells are barely (at best) worth the time and effort required to gain them. However, Hex Parasite and Vampire Hexmage effects do work on battles, so perhaps cheesing them is a better option.

Invasion of Ikoria

There's a perfect, built-in test for this idea: Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria. While narrower, and generally worse, than Finale of Devastation, I could see Ikoria make it in Pioneer simply because it has two green pips. Mono-Green Devotion already doesn't play humans and might want a tutor. The fact that Invasion of Ikoria is a battle with a creature on the back wouldn't really be relevant.

However, this Invasion could also find a home in Modern for a different reason. For four mana, you can tutor for Hexmage and be ready to flip over Zilortha anytime. This is as close to Dark Depths as Modern is ever likely to get. It's leagues and leagues worse than Depths, admittedly, but an 8/8 for four isn't terrible, and the second ability might win a game. The problem is that Zilortha dies to Fatal Push. I'm certain that players are going to try it, but I'm skeptical that it'll work out.

Invasion of Gobakhan

If any of the sieges are going to work out as intended, my bet would be on Invasion of Gobakhan // Lightshield Array. The front being a cheap disruption effect is worth looking at in both Pioneer and Modern. Elite Spellbinder has seen Pioneer play and is borderline for Modern, so shaving a mana and not being a creature almost balances out. The pluses are that this siege only has three defense, and the backside rewards attacking.

The ideal situation for Gobakhan is for Modern Counter Cat to play Wild Nacatl turn one, then Invasion on turn two, attack and immediately flip it, and then Lightshield Array will trigger, turning the Nacatl into a 4/4. That is obviously an absolutely perfect scenario, but Array is strong enough that disruptive white aggro may want this in multiple formats. Losing three damage might be worth making every attacking creature more powerful.

Graveyard Smash

Looking outside of the battles, there are a number of cards that offer interesting, if slightly convoluted, combo potential for Modern. The headliner is Kroxa and Kunoros. While a solid card if cast full price, this is not the type of effect any Modern deck (and probably no Pioneer deck, either) would pay six mana to have. There are cheaper and less conditional ways to reanimate creatures. However, the templating of the reanimation ability creates a combo with Altar of Dementia.

The second ability triggers without a target because it is a reflexive trigger. The conditions must be met first for the trigger to do anything. This means there is a window to sacrifice Kroxa to Alter, mill six cards, and use five of them to pay for the trigger and reanimate Kroxa. Rinse and repeat until your library is empty and use the final trigger to reanimate Thassa's Oracle. It's a self-sustaining combo.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Altar of Dementia

The catch is that making this happen requires a lot of moving pieces. The earliest it could come together is turn three, by using The Underworld Cookbook to discard Kroxa, then playing Alter turn two, and finally reanimating Kroxa with either Persist or Goryo's Vengeance. That's not bad, but it's also all-in on a combo that can be responded to and broken up by Endurance. There's also competition in the niche from Jeskai Combo Breach and Goryo's Kitchen decks. It will be interesting to see if Kroxa can outcompete the existing decks.

Rhino Bait

Next is Halo Forager. Faerie's holdouts always get excited whenever a possibly playable faerie comes out. Bad news, those guys, it's still no longer 2008, and Bitterblossom is obsolete. However, Forager here is still playable without any Faerie-type support. Paying more for Snapcaster Mage with flying instead of flash isn't a good deal, but a Snapcaster that can target the opposing graveyard opens possibilities.

Forager can also be used to flashback opponent's cascade spell. A three-mana Snapcaster isn't great, but three mana for a 3/1 flier and a Crashing Footfalls you don't own is pretty amazing. Of course, Rhinos has Subtlety and Force of Negation as answers, but the best-case scenario on Forager remains pretty awesome.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End

That said, I actually think that the best use is as an anti-Living End card. Discarding Forager before End resolves ensures that you can immediately undo the sorcery. Of course, getting that scenario to play out in reality may be tricky enough not to be worthwhile. That said, being able to play Forager the same turn via Aether Vial) or cast it normally the following turn ensures that the opponent won't just win on the spot.

Niche Seekers

Honestly, that's all I'm seeing in terms of impact players for the older formats. The competition for space is high enough, and MOM's power level isn't especially pushed, by the standards of recent sets anyway. However, there are a number of interesting cards that could make an impact if the right circumstances rise. They don't currently have a niche but would fill one well if it existed.

Faerie Mastermind

Again, Modern Faerie hopefuls, this will not reinvigorate your pet deck. Modern decks don't draw two cards a turn. They're running Mishra's Bauble and Expressive Iteration, or have Teferi, Time Raveler, so there's no surprise value. Paying four so the opponent draws one card and you draw two isn't a great rate. Legacy would rather play Hullbreacher. For Faerie Mastermind to see play, there needs to exist a Pioneer blue tempo deck that isn't Spirits.

Omen Hawker

Wizards really doesn't make mana dorks in Standard anymore. Blue never gets mana dorks, so Omen Hawker's stock is incredibly high. The fact that Hawker generates more than one mana means that it plus Freed from the Real make infinite mana. Mana that can only be used activating abilities. There are easier ways to make an infinite Walking Ballista, but players will always experiment with unique effects.

Deeproot Wayfinder

A 2/3 merfolk for two is solid but not very exciting, and Simic Merfolk never took off in Modern, which limits Deeproot Wayfinder's playability. The second ability is intriguing, but so long as Wrenn and Six is legal, it is completely outclassed. If a Merfolk deck ever gets fins in Pioneer I could see this working there, but as is there are easier ways in all formats to get lands from graveyards.

Ozolith, the Shattered Spire

An additional Hardened Scales for one more mana probably isn't good enough. Ozolith, the Shattered Spire also gives counters (expensively), so it might be good. The real question is what can Hardened Scales afford to cut to fit in the Shattered Spire.

Just Another Set

March of the Machine has some interesting cards, though the headline new mechanic raises enough questions that I don't foresee widespread adoption in older formats. Those cards that do make it could inspire some strategic repositioning and a new twist on existing decks. However, there's nothing here that will definitely disrupt Modern's status quo. I expect that to persist for some time yet.

Content Creators Wanted

Posted on April 11, 2023April 10, 2023 by Paul Comeau

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You Can Be a Content Creator with Quiet Speculation

Do you love Magic: the Gathering? Are you exploding with stories to tell and knowledge to share about your favorite game? Are you able to write and speak coherently? If this sounds like you, Quiet Speculation is actively looking for new content creators to join our team. Share your knowledge of Magic and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Open Roles

Quiet Speculation is actively recruiting content creators to cover these specific areas of focus:

Constructed Specialist - Competitive (Standard, Modern, Pioneer, etc.)

The Competitive Constructed Specialist loves 60-card formats, whether played on the Arena ladder or at their nearest RCQ. More than just a grinder, they should be looking to improve their knowledge and understanding of the game of Magic and be able to eloquently share that knowledge with an audience. The Constructed Specialist doesn't just tell the audience something is good, they tell them why it is good, and teach the audience the tools to develop that understanding for themselves.

Constructed Specialist - Eternal Formats

While just as competitive-minded as our other Constructed Specialist, The Eternal Formats specialist focuses on Vintage, Legacy, and/or Pauper in addition to covering other 60-card formats. They have a deep knowledge not just of current eternal metagames, but also of the histories and evolutions of the respective formats.

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Quiet Speculation was founded as a Magic Finance website. While in recent years we've broadened our offerings, Magic Finance is still a core part of our content offerings and will remain so as long as there is a secondary market. A finance writer for QS teaches readers how to leverage the secondary market to achieve their individual goals. This can range from turning a profit, to growing a collection, to having a competitive deck for the next big Modern tournament. Sharing individual specs, and investment opportunities with readers is good. Teaching readers the skills to identify specs on their own is better.

Teaching readers the skills they need to be savvier in interacting with the secondary market encourages investment in the game in more than just a financial sense. It gives readers analytical tools they can apply to all aspects of their Magic game, and beyond. QS Finance writers share tools that let players get the most out of their collections and enjoy their Magic passion to the fullest.

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An Alpha Opportunity

Posted on April 10, 2023April 10, 2023 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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I went to Magic 30 in Las Vegas last year with the goal of significantly reducing my investment in Magic. While I was successful in this mission, I had a difficult time moving the few remaining Alpha rares I had left. It perplexed me. Each Alpha rare is a precious piece of history. Wizards printed only 1,100 of each. It's impossible to say how many have been damaged, destroyed, or otherwise lost over the years. Their scarcity and value are almost unrivaled.

Despite this, all the vendors I approached declined to make an offer on these collectibles. It became clear to me that just because a card is scarce, doesn't make vendors interested in purchasing them. There still must be demand from their customers. I was a bit bewildered by this at first because I was not seeing a lack of demand from my vantage point. I'd seen many Alpha rares sell in the Old School Discord. There’s even a format dedicated to Alpha cards, for crying out loud!

Alas, after failed attempts to move these cards in person, I shifted my focus to online buylists. Ultimately, I traded in my Alpha rares to ABUGames for store credit, and moved that credit into high-end Old School singles that would be easier and faster to sell.

Alpha Stagnation

That was almost half a year ago now. Since then, I’ve continued monitoring the Alpha rare market despite owning zero copies myself. I wanted to see if prices were truly softening or if finding a particular Alpha rare remained as difficult as always.

So far, it seems like (with some exceptions) the answer is the former. Bear in mind I didn’t own any true chase Alpha cards—my collection consisted of cards like Farmstead, Northern Paladin, and Fungusaur. These were less-desirable cards for play purposes, and most of their demand would come from the collector market. I don’t think prices on Alpha rares like these have been very strong lately.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fungusaur

What’s more, I’ve seen the same inventory sitting in vendor inventory for a while now. This subset of cards isn’t exactly flying off store shelves. I admit I haven’t been tracking the high-end stuff as closely—it’s fully possible that Alpha dual lands, power, and playables like Birds of Paradise are on the rise. I don’t think that’s the case, though, judging by the sparsely populated data we have on such cards.

For example, consider Alpha Mox Jet, the first power nine card that came to mind. Retail pricing and best buylist pricing for this card is well off its high, set back in 2021.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Jet

The charts for Alpha Chaos Orb and Timetwister look similar in shape, though I will confess Timetwister’s pullback has been much shallower in nature. Alpha Black Lotus, arguably the most collectible non-misprint non-custom card in Magic, hasn’t pulled back one bit, and Card Kingdom still boasts a nearly-six figure buy price.

Top end aside, however, I’d posit that Alpha rares have cooled off in general, and the less playable the card is, the more its price has dipped.

Pricing Mismatch and the Bid-Ask Spread

Readers may start to poke holes in my claim above, citing the still-strong pricing on obscure Alpha rares listed across multiple online platforms. For example, consider Alpha Gaea's Liege, one of my favorites.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Liege

Online Store Pricings...

Card Kingdom has just two copies of Gaea's Liege in stock: a near mint one for $1999.99 and an excellent one for $1599.99. If they had a good copy in stock, it would be listed at $800. That seems like a strong price for this card, doesn’t it? The best buy price is currently over $900, which seems robust at first glance. Before jumping to that conclusion, however, keep in mind that’s a near mint buy price; a heavily played offer will be less than half that number.

Next, you may challenge me by highlighting TCGplayer pricing—currently, there’s only one lonely copy of Alpha Gaea's Liege in stock. It’s listed as heavily played for $799.99 plus shipping. That’s a steep price for an HP copy, and it corroborates Card Kingdom’s $800 “good” condition price tag. Doesn't all this data support the notion that obscure Alpha rares are stronger than ever?

...Versus eBay Pricing

I would be inclined to agree, but for one final data point. Check out this eBay listing that ABUGames has posted currently, an auction for a heavily played Alpha Gaea's Liege:

This is a major disconnect! This copy is currently listed at $337.54, less than half of Card Kingdom’s “good” price and TCGplayer pricing, and there are still zero bids!

I could be challenged by someone claiming that this card’s listing is still active and that it could receive multiple bids before the auction’s end. Crazier things have happened. I'd rebuff that by highlighting this card’s auction history on eBay. You see, this isn’t the first time this card has been listed by ABUGames. Nor is it the second. Nor is it the third.

Nope, this is the fifth time this card has been listed; the previous four listings for this card concluded without a single bid. In fact, a very heavily played Alpha Gaea's Liege did sell recently, and the auction ended at $305.21.

Thus, I’d put forth the argument that, while Card Kingdom and TCGplayer sellers can try to sell their copies at whatever pricing they’d like, this card is worth far less than these sites indicate. The amount someone is willing to sell at (aka the “ask”) is significantly higher than the price at which someone is willing to buy (aka the “bid”). In this environment, the spread between the bid and ask has ballooned, leading to stagnant inventories—the very thing that Magic 30 vendors in Las Vegas wanted to avoid.

The Exception or the Rule?

One card is not sufficient to establish a trend. Perhaps this one instance is a fluke? I can tell you one thing for certain: that Gaea's Liege auction isn’t going to end without a bid again because I absolutely plan on bidding on it myself before the auction ends.

At least, I would… if there weren’t other equally tempting auctions out there. You see, Gaea's Liege is not the exception in this bid/ask pricing mismatch. In fact, ABUGames currently has a dozen Alpha rares at auction currently, with prices of varying attractiveness. Here are the few that tempt me most, along with TCGplayer low and Card Kingdom “good” pricing:

Played Chaoslace: TCG low $450, Card Kingdom good $260 (completely sold out)

Heavily Played Clockwork Beast: TCG low $700, Card Kingdom good $600

Played Zombie Master: TCG low $650, Card Kingdom good $520

Heavily Played Demonic Hordes (gotta love the “BBB” in the text box!): TCG low $960, Card Kingdom good $1480!!

Heavily Played Meekstone: TCG low $880 (a damaged copy sold at this price), Card Kingdom good $760.

Including the Gaea's Liege, that’s six raw Alpha rares that ABUGames currently has listed on eBay at arguably attractive prices. In most cases, the prices are well below alternate listings across the internet. While I compared the cards above to Card Kingdom’s “good” pricing, keep in mind that Card Kingdom doesn’t actually have any good copies in stock; in most cases, they are either sold out or have only the pricier NM or EX copies in stock.

If ABUGames had more Alpha rares to sell, I suspect many would fall in a similar camp to the listings above. Week after week ABUGames has listed these for sale at auction, and each time they’ve ended without bids. Now, after watching these cards for as much as a month, I’m starting to feel tempted—these price points are awfully attractive for such iconic, collectible cards.

A Nod to Other Old Sets

Now that I’m bringing these listings into the spotlight, I wonder if they’ll all sell this time around. As I mentioned before, I plan on bidding on one of these cards myself—I don’t have the bankroll for all of them, and I’m not sure what my priority is just yet. It feels like a game of chicken: do I bid on something now to lock in a purchase, or do I wait and see if the auctions end another time without any bidders, thereby giving me the chance at a lower price? The joys of the Dutch auction style at work.

Beta Price Trends

I want to take one moment to step aside and acknowledge that I’ve also been monitoring Beta rare prices; indeed, I have even purchased a couple of cheaper Beta rares from ABUGames over the past couple months. Currently, ABUGames has 62 Beta rare auctions listed on eBay, but I don’t think the prices are nearly as attractive as the Alpha cards I mentioned above. It seems we’ll have to wait a few more weeks for auctions to end without bids before prices become interesting—I’ll continue monitoring and will report back what I find!

Other Old School Sets

For those interested, ABUGames also uses this Dutch-style eBay auction listing strategy for other Old School cards from Arabian Nights, Legends, Antiquities, and The Dark. I would guess they do the same for Unlimited cards too, though I’ve never searched myself. The only other ABUGames eBay auctions I watch closely are for Revised Dual Lands, which seem to frequently receive bids before they can end and drop in price.

Wrapping It Up

For now, my focus remains on Alpha cards. There simply aren’t many for sale out there and after these auctions end, it’s hard to predict when ABUGames will have new copies available to sell. It could be that they won’t have another Alpha Demonic Hordes to auction for months. By then it could be the case that $1000+ copies are the only ones available on the open market. Once again, widening the bid/ask spread.

If you have any interest in the Alpha cards above, don’t dilly-dally. Place your bid! Be thankful that you are purchasing a piece of Magic history at an attractive price, up to 60% off “retail” prices offered by other websites. I will be following my own advice, and I’m already excited to own one out of 1,100 copies of a card once again. I know I had a few before that I sold, but as prices have softened over the past few months, I can’t help myself.

Sometimes a deal is just too juicy to pass up!