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Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #12

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The 2018 World Championship happened this past weekend, along with Star City Games's Baltimore Legacy Open. Overall nothing was too exciting, except for Gerry Thompson’s choice not to play in Worlds as a way to protest the poor pro support over the years.

We won’t see changes happen overnight regarding that. But we’ll start to see changes to the metagames shortly after Guilds of Ravnica is released next month. Assassin's Trophy has been talked about to death so hold on to your seats.

The release of a new set is always an exciting time. It provides new things to talk about as formats change, which is a big part of what this article series is about.

  1. Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  2. Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

There was an error retrieving a chart for Choke

Target Buy Price
Under $40

Matthew Vook’s 4-Color Loam list that won the SCG Baltimore Open didn’t contain any copies of Choke. But you still see it pop up in the sideboard of other lists, like Brandon Chang’s.

Legacy: 4-Color Loam by Matthew Vook

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Knight of the Reliquary
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Dryad Arbor

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Mox Diamond
1 Sylvan Library
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Punishing Fire
2 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Life from the Loam
1 Vindicate
3 Liliana of the Veil

Lands

1 Forest
1 Badlands
1 Barren Moor
2 Bayou
1 Cabal Pit
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Grove of the Burnwillows
1 Maze of Ith
1 Savannah
1 Scrubland
1 Taiga
1 Tranquil Thicket
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Wasteland
2 Windswept Heath
1 Karakas

Sideboard

1 Reclamation Sage
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Golgari Charm
2 Swords to Plowshares
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Ajani Vengeant
1 Garruk Relentless
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Legacy: 4-Color Loam by Brandon Chang

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
1 Gaddock Teeg
4 Knight of the Reliquary
1 Scavenging Ooze

Non-Creature Spells

3 Abrupt Decay
2 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Life from the Loam
3 Punishing Fire
1 Toxic Deluge
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Liliana of the Veil
4 Mox Diamond
1 Sylvan Library

Lands

1 Badlands
1 Barren Moor
2 Bayou
1 Cabal Pit
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Grove of the Burnwillows
1 Karakas
1 Maze of Ith
1 Savannah
1 Scrubland
1 Taiga
1 Tranquil Thicket
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Wasteland
2 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Ajani Vengeant
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Choke
2 Golgari Charm
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Swords to Plowshares
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Vindicate

Okay, so one copy in two decks. That’s not really a good showing of the card. But if you take a look at this list, you’ll see that Choke is actually played in quite a few popular decks.

Take a look at Nicolas Bergerot’s Jund list from Grand Prix Stockholm.

Legacy: Jund by Nicolas Bergerot

Creatures

4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Dark Confidant
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tarmogoyf

Non-Creature Spells

1 Abrupt Decay
1 Dreadbore
2 Fatal Push
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Kolaghan's Command
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Thoughtseize
3 Liliana of the Veil
2 Liliana, the Last Hope

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Forest
2 Overgrown Tomb
3 Raging Ravine
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
2 Treetop Village
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Abrupt Decay
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Choke
1 Damping Sphere
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Kitchen Finks
3 Surgical Extraction

And you know what slots well into that deck? Assassin's Trophy. Now let’s take a look at Daniel Barkon’s Lands list from SCG Baltimore.

Legacy: Lands by Daniel Barkon

Non-Creature Spells

4 Mox Diamond
4 Exploration
1 Manabond
1 Molten Vortex
4 Crop Rotation
3 Punishing Fire
4 Gamble
4 Life from the Loam

Lands

1 Forest
1 Barbarian Ring
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Glacial Chasm
4 Grove of the Burnwillows
2 Maze of Ith
1 Misty Rainforest
3 Rishadan Port
1 Sheltered Thicket
2 Taiga
4 Thespian's Stage
1 Tranquil Thicket
1 Verdant Catacombs
4 Wasteland
1 Windswept Heath
1 Karakas
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
4 Dark Depths

Sideboard

2 Chalice of the Void
3 Sphere of Resistance
2 Tireless Tracker
1 Choke
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Kozilek's Return
3 Krosan Grip
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Ancient Tomb

And how about some more Assassin's Trophy action if you aren’t sick of it already? Check out Charles Azuelos’s Elves deck from SCG’s Syrcause Legacy Classic.

Legacy: Elves by Charles Azuelos

Creatures

2 Birchlore Rangers
2 Craterhoof Behemoth
1 Elvish Mystic
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Heritage Druid
2 Llanowar Elves
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Quirion Ranger
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Scavenging Ooze
4 Wirewood Symbiote
2 Dryad Arbor

Non-Creature Spells

4 Glimpse of Nature
4 Green Sun's Zenith
3 Natural Order

Lands

3 Forest
2 Bayou
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Gaea's Cradle
1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

1 Pithing Needle
2 Choke
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Surgical Extraction
2 Nissa, Vital Force
4 Thoughtseize

Not only are there two Chokes in the sideboard, but those three Abrupt Decays can be easily swapped out for Assassin's Trophys. And don’t forget about that Pendelhaven, which I mentioned in the previous article. There’s also Pelt Collector, but I doubt that’ll make its way into Elves in Eternal formats. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s highly unlikely.

Shefet Dunes - Hour of Devastation (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shefet Dunes

Target Buy Price
Under $2

This is a nice little pick-up during rotation. It’s an affordable and useful utility land that sees play mainly in Modern Death & Taxes variants like Nick D’Ambrose’s Eldrazi Taxes from Grand Prix Detroit, or Dorian Rohner’s RW Death & Taxes from Grand Prix Prague.

Modern: Eldrazi Taxes by Nick D’Ambrose

Creatures

2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
4 Eldrazi Displacer
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Reality Smasher
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Thought-Knot Seer

Non-Creature Spells

4 Dismember
2 Smuggler's Copter
4 Chalice of the Void

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
2 Shefet Dunes
3 Gemstone Caverns
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Eldrazi Temple
4 Ghost Quarter
5 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Wastes

Sideboard

3 Worship
2 Warping Wail
3 Tocatli Honor Guard
3 Stony Silence
3 Rest in Peace
1 Karn, Scion of Urza

Modern: RW Death and Taxes by Dorian Rohner

Creatures

3 Blade Splicer
4 Flickerwisp
1 Hazoret the Fervent
4 Leonin Arbiter
1 Pia Nalaar
1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
4 Restoration Angel
2 Selfless Spirit
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Thraben Inspector

Non-Creature Spells

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Path to Exile
4 Aether Vial
2 Smuggler's Copter

Lands

1 Battlefield Forge
1 Field of Ruin
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Inspiring Vantage
1 Mountain
1 Needle Spires
4 Plains
3 Sacred Foundry
1 Shefet Dunes
1 Slayers' Stronghold
1 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

2 Blessed Alliance
2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Dire Fleet Daredevil
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Rest in Peace
2 Wear / Tear
1 Worship

Runaway Steam-Kin - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil & Foil)

Target Buy Price
Non-Foil: $3
Foil: $6-8

I’ve already posted on social media that I think this will be the one of the chase cards from Guilds of Ravnica. Frank Karsten already did some of the math on this card on Channel Fireball. While he concludes the math doesn't indicate many turn-one wins in Modern, it’s just the tip of the iceberg as to what this card will enable.

Modern: Turn-One Boom by Marijn Lybaert

Creatures

4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Flamekin Harbinger
4 Runaway Steam-Kin
2 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Bushwhacker

Non-Creature Spells

4 Pact of the Titan
4 Faithless Looting
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Devastating Summons
4 Manamorphose

Lands

16 Mountain

Star City Games and Card Kingdom are both sold out of foil copies at $3.99. I’ve submitted restock alerts on both sites hoping to get at least at playest from $6-8 each. However, I have a feeling they’ll be restocked with a price of $9.99 or more.

Recent Buys

Worship - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

There was an error retrieving a chart for Worship

Purchased Price
$39.99

In article #10, I talked about Faithless Looting. A few weeks ago I sold eight foil Eternal Masters copies to Star City Games for $6 store credit each, which I had bought from them at $2.99 in 2016. I used most of the $48 I got in store credit to buy one of these Worships that I talked about in the same article.

I just checked Star City Games and they’re sold out at $49.99! I didn’t think they’d sell out of these that fast, let alone raise the price by $10.

And now that I look again at those lists above regarding Shefet Dunes, both of those decks have Worship in the sideboards. Crazy!

Goblin Cratermaker - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

Purchased Price
$2.99

I put the rest of the store credit towards buying a playset of these. Originally, I was going to buy twenty of these but didn’t pull the trigger. Then I started to quickly see the stock deplete, and placed a separate order from the Worship.

I could’ve saved on shipping by ordering them together, but I still wasn’t sure about Goblin Cratermaker at the time. As it turns out, I was fumbling around with their site and the store credit, and accidentally ordered the Worship by itself because the site automatically placed the order as I was testing the use of the store credit.

Anyways, this card has a lot of utility attached to a 2/2 body for only 1R, making it very flexible.

Snow-Covered Island - Coldsnap (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snow-Covered Island

Purchased Price
$12.99

I bought a Lightly Played copy from TCG Player. I talked about Snow-Covered lands in article #9, so I’m putting some more money where my mouth is. You’ll see there aren’t very many left. And they’re sold on out on Star City Games and Card Kingdom, so the supply is definitely drying up.

Watch List

Pact of the Titan - Future Sight (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of the Titan

Observed Price
$7.99

This is one of the key pieces to the Modern Turn-One Boom deck, featuring Runaway Steam-Kin listed above. There’s only one printing and there aren’t many foil copies out there. If you want to try this with Runaway Steam-Kin, I would get these under $8 if you can now.

Flamekin Harbinger - Lorwyn (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flamekin Harbinger

Observed Price
$4

Although the Turn-One Boom deck only runs two copies of this card, I could see it easily moving up to four copies to make sure you consistently draw Runaway Steam-Kin.

Also, this is the only foil version. While there are a few more copies on the market compared to Pact of the Titan, because it’s an uncommon versus a rare, the supply of this card could dry up just as easily.

Updates

Manamorphose - Modern Masters (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Manamorphose

I marked this card as a Fold in article #11. However, I think this is actually a Hold now owing to the printing of Runaway Steam-Kin. One- and two-mana spells that draw cards, especially ones like Manamorphose that also produce mana, have become very powerful as a way to chain things together and win the game. Another one of these cards to watch out for is Burning-Tree Emissary, which I highlighted in article #9.

Office Hours

Don’t forget to sign up to the Discord channel for Office Hours with me and Sigmund. This is happening tonight!

We can chat about things like…

When: Thursday, September 27 at 9p Eastern
Where: Quiet Speculation Discord Channel

Summary

Hold ‘Em

  • Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations
  • Shefet Dunes - Hour of Devastation (Foil)
  • Runaway Steam-Kin - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil & Foil)

Recent Buys

  • Worship - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations
  • Goblin Cratermaker - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Snow-Covered Island - Coldsnap (Foil)

Watchlist

  • Pact of the Titan - Future Sight (Foil)
  • Flamekin Harbinger - Lorwyn (Foil)

Updates

  • Manamorphose - Modern Masters (Non-Foil & Foil) [Hold]

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

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