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A Foray into No Banned List Modern

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Few would disagree that the banned list in Modern is a net benefit to the format, facilitating its legendary diversity and ensuring games remain more or less interactive. There is, however, a certain curiosity that's hard to shake off---just what would our beloved format look like completely freed from all its shackles? No-banned-list Modern tournaments have grown in popularity, and if they're unlikely to usher in a new format or become the newest casual craze, they can be fun for a weekend's lark. Last weekend I had the joy of playing in a local no-banned-list tournament. Feeling uninterested in the PPTQ grind that was starting a new season, and jonesing for some good old-fashioned broken Magic, I decided to join in on the fun and see what it was all about.

deathrite-shaman-cropped

I started with a quick google search for no-banned-list decks, intending to play some variant of UR Delver. First at the top of the list of considerations was cost, and Delver decks are often little more than a pile of commons with a few fetchlands thrown in for good measure. Sure enough, I was able to cobble together most of the list I wanted from my collection, and headed off to the store to see if I could wrangle the rest in loans from other players.

As it turned out, the tournament allowed for eight proxied cards, which made things pretty easy. I spent the remainder of my prep time chatting with another UR Delver player about his choices, and sharpieing up the final cards for my ad hoc sideboard. Here's what I registered:

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UR Delver (No Banned List), by Jason Schousboe

Creatures

4 Young Pyromancer
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Mental Misstep
3 Spell Pierce
2 Remand
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Mutagenic Growth

Sorceries

4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Ponder
4 Treasure Cruise
2 Forked Bolt

Lands

4 Steam Vents
1 Mountain
1 Island
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
2 Electrickery
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Vandalblast
1 Thing in the Ice
1 Dispel
1 Annul
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Izzet Charm
1 Jori En, Ruin Diver
1 Spellskite
1 Skullclamp
1 Tormod's Crypt

I built my sideboard largely with the intention of trying out a million different things (and casting spells I thought were fun in what can only be described as a silly tournament). In any case, it was pretty loose, and ended up punishing me a few times.

As for the maindeck, I was largely happy but found myself wanting an additional basic Island on several occasions. For one, it would have helped in games involving Blood Moon; for another it would have provided me more painless fetch targets against aggressive decks. Moving forward I would cut the fourth Steam Vents to make room.

Round 1 - Bye

I was disappointed this round to learn that my opponent had left his deck at home inadvertently. He tried to run home and get back in time for the match, but it wasn't to be. I'll take a win as it comes, but my goal was really just to spend the day putting Treasure Cruises and Mental Missteps on the stack---sad times.

Round 2 - BW Eldrazi (Win)

Eye of UginMy opponent's deck is a typical take on the old Eye of Ugin Eldrazi deck with a Stoneforge Mystic package thrown in for extra spice. He tells me he's new to Modern, which is borne out by him having to read several cards and making some pretty clear-cut misplays. On a couple occasions he lets me Smash to Smithereens a Relic of Progenitus without sacrificing it first. He also forgets that Eye can tap for mana under Urborg, and one turn tutors for Batterskull off of Stoneforge and elects to pass with 5 mana up instead of hard-casting it.

I take this match pretty easily, but leave with the impression that the matchup is unfavorable against a more seasoned opponent.

Sideboarding

-2 Spell Pierce
-2 Mental Misstep
-2 Forked Bolt

+2 Blood Moon
+1 Thing in the Ice
+1 Jori En, Ruin Diver
+1 Skullclamp
+1 Smash to Smithereens

Jori En, Ruin DiverI may have some of the details of my exact sideboarding wrong, but this was close. I wanted to trim on Missteps since his plan was to jam giant monsters, but he did have Relic, Thoughtseize, and Path to Exile so they were still live. Blood Moon was obviously an MVP, and it did win me a game singlehandedly. Smash was for Batterskull and Relic of Progenitus, the latter which made Cruising tougher.

Skullclamp, Thing in the Ice, and Jori En were part of my "value package" to bring in against grindy decks. I never drew Thing in the Ice, but the theory was to bounce a pile of four- and five-drops. My guess is this is just too cute and better served as something else. Jori En, on the other hand, impressed on a few occasions, the sweetest being this round when I tapped out on turn three and Misstepped an EOT Path to Exile for the trigger---value!

Round 3 - Affinity (Loss)

The opponent is on about what you'd expect, with multiple artifact lands, Skullclamp, and the Atog/Disciple of the Vault combo that defines the Pauper version of the archetype. Arcbound RavagerI was debating with some friends earlier about artifact lands in Affinity, trying to contend that they're just worse than the standard Nexuses. In any case, he seemed to make it work, and while I never saw him go off with Atog or Disciple, I will say his Ravagers were particularly troublesome and effectively never ran out of fuel.

This round I am roundly punished for my loose sideboard. My mediocre artifact hate is not enough to overcome his Ravagers and Platings, and I succumb to the robot menace. Game three I drew Annul, Smash to Smithereens, and Vandalblast, and still lose. At some point during this game I look at those cards in my hand/graveyard and realize that if they were Ancient Grudges I could not possibly lose.

Sideboarding

-3 Mental Misstep
-2 Remand
-2 Gitaxian Probe
-1 Spell Pierce

+2 Electrickery
+1 Vandalblast
+1 Annul
+1 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Izzet Charm
+1 Spellskite
+1 Thing in the Ice

Here again there's some tension with Mental Misstep, as countering Skullclamp or an early Springleaf Drum is great but the card risks being dead. I reasoned that the remaining Spell Pierces and Izzet Charm could help defray the danger of Clamp while still giving me game against Cranial Plating.

Normally I would take out all the Probes, but with Cruise and Pyromancer in my deck they have additional value. The rest of the sideboarding is pretty standard against Affinity. As I explained above, moving forward I would just replace all the anti-artifact stuff with Grudges, and add one Breeding Pool to flash them back.

Round 4 - Jund (Win)

Ah, good old Jund. Nothing beats Jund. Before the tournament I was debating with my friend who's more or less lifetime-committed to the archetype, and he maintains it's still a contender even in the busted universe of no-banned-list Modern. Punishing FireHe played it at this event (we would eventually meet in the finals), but this round I faced off against someone else.

He starts by quipping that his matches were all over quickly, which leads me to keep a bad hand of multiple Spell Pierces and no threats, thinking he's on combo. This game goes on to illustrate one of my main issues with Jund in a world of Treasure Cruise (it was similarly poorly positioned during Cruise's original reign in 2014). In spite of my bad hand, and facing down a reasonably early Goyf and Liliana, eventually I just rip Cruise off the top and pull way ahead. If we're being honest, "rip" isn't even the right word---Ponder is a messed up Magic card when it comes to generating consistency. I make a copious number of Elemental tokens to embarrass Liliana of the Veil and Tarmogoyf alike and take him down.

Game two he mulls all the way to four and keeps a hand of double Grove of the Burnwillows and Punishing Fire. Turns out that's a tad strong against my creature base. I'm cognizant of the fact that this game is Blood Moon or bust, but I have ample time to eventually cantrip into it. With him all but locked out I finish him off easily.

Liliana of the VeilSideboarding

-2 Mental Misstep
-2 Gitaxian Probe
-1 Spell Pierce
-1 Forked Bolt

+2 Blood Moon
+1 Izzet Charm
+1 Jori En, Ruin Diver
+1 Skullclamp
+1 Spellskite

Since my buddy on Jund is one of the stronger players in the room, I've come prepared for this matchup. I know Cruise is the best card by a long shot, so the value package comes in, sans Thing in the Ice which is too easy for them to kill. Missteps are something of a double-edged sword, since countering Bolt and Deathrite is pretty nutty, but they have a solid chance of rotting away in your hand. Similar issue with Spell Pierce vis-à-vis Liliana. It might be better to have more Missteps on the draw and more Pierces on the play, but I'm not sure.

Forked Bolt is better than normal against Jund because of Deathrite, so I left one in. Blood Moon is clearly crazy good, especially when they're trying to Punishing-Grove you out, and the Cruises, Ponders, and post-board draw spells make it that much more likely I'll find a copy.

Semifinals - Affinity (Win)

This opponent is the same one from round 3. His draws are much less robust this match, and between mulligans, my timely hate pieces, and his lackluster draws I take my revenge for the earlier loss.

Finals - Jund (Loss)

My friend and I are in the Top 2! Pretty sweet. Winner gets a Scalding Tarn and loser gets a Misty Rainforest, which for a $10 entry fee sounds like a pretty sick deal. Battling for the glory is the no-brainer option.

Game one he's on the play due to seeding and casts a turn one Deathrite. The universe demonstrates its sense of humor and I draw Misstep for turn. Cool story. Turn two Liliana comes down and I'm never in it. Game two I mulligan and get run over. Either way, it's always fun to close out a tournament with a friend, and I won't be complaining about my $10 Misty anytime soon.

Examining the Banned List

I had an absolute blast playing this tournament, and I would encourage anyone who hasn't tried out no-banned-list Modern to give it a go. I was pleasantly surprised to play against an interactive deck every round, and the games were interesting and challenging. I suspect that given enough time and financial incentive, the community and MTGO hive mind would solve the format handily and plunge it into degeneracy, but in a more casual environment things were pretty balanced.

On a more serious note, testing in these hypothetical environments can give us relevant information about which cards may be safe to unban. Here are my thoughts about the banned list after playing six rounds.

  • Stoneforge MysticStoneforge Mystic & Bloodbraid Elf: Neither of these cards felt unfair when they were cast against me. Granted my deck was hardly a reasonable yardstick for "fair," but I feel that these cards are mostly safe to unban.

Bloodbraid Elf has been discussed elsewhere, and I think the community largely agrees its banning was a mistake that could easily be rectified. As for Stoneforge it's a slightly dicier proposition, but I feel that between artifact hate, combo kills, and Lightning Bolt she would potentially be a fine addition to the format.

  • Deathrite Shaman & Eye of Ugin: I've come to see these cards, along with Mox Opal, in a similar light. Fundamentally, they act as "fast mana" for their respective archetypes. What makes them distinct from things like Birds of Paradise, Simian Spirit Guide, or Search for Tomorrow is opportunity cost---each of these cards essentially take up no space in decklists.

Mox Opal and Eye of Ugin are accelerants that occupy land slots, of which a certain number are required for any deck. It's not hard to see why this leads to degeneracy---they're lands that Time Walk opponents. Deathrite Shaman is a stranger case. Deathrite ShamanObviously it takes up a spell slot, but it doesn't reduce the amount of action in your deck. So where Opal and Eye upgrade a slot you're already using for mana, Deathrite upgrades a slot dedicated to a win condition. In both cases you end up with acceleration in your deck at effectively no cost.

Eye of Ugin is easily the worst offender of these, providing a full-on Mishra's Workshop for the appropriate deck. I don't think this card can ever come off the banned list as long as Thought-Knot Seer &co. are a part of the format. Deathrite's offense is less about raw power and more about ubiquity. Jeskai colors are the only ones that can't run it, and such a flexible card becomes a must-include everywhere and pushes out strategies that don't convert. It makes sense that Opal is the one of the three that has survived this long---like Deathrite it can only add +1 mana, and like Eye it must be included in a very specific deck. I could certainly see Opal getting banned eventually, but for now it seems okay---hopefully this little theoretical discussion helps explain why.

  • Ancient DenArtifact Lands: I'm not even convinced that Affinity wants these. I recognize that Arcbound Ravager, Atog and Disciple of the Vault are best buds with Ancient Den, et.al., but I'm not sure it's worth cutting Blinkmoth and Inkmoth. The games I lost against Affinity looked pretty much the same as what we're all used to in normal Modern---they put a zillion permanents on the table early on, smacked me around with the "big spells" like Ravager and Plating, and post-board slammed the terrifying Etched Champion to play around my hate. It's been a long time since Affinity was interested in any of its namesake cards, and without Myr Enforcer and Thoughtcast I don't see a strong reason to run more than a few artifact lands.

Where artifact lands may be problematic is in creating other combo decks, most notably Krark-Clan Ironworks. I'll leave it to other people to speculate on the fairness of that deck, but my current thinking is that the artifact land cycle is a candidate for unbanning.

  • SkullclampSkullclamp: I had this as a one-of in my sideboard, largely for the grindy matchups like Jund and Eldrazi. I did get to "go off" with it once, but by the time I started clamping Elemental tokens I had something like 7 and the game was basically already over. Similarly, when I saw it cast in Affinity it didn't seem unreasonable, as sacrificing tempo and board presence to draw more cards wasn't always advantageous. That said, this is another card that could easily enable new broken combo decks, and even in Affinity it seemed highly dangerous. I suspect that Elves would break it completely in half.
  • Ponder: Unbanning Ponder (and its cousin Preordain) would be dangerous to say the least. In my Delver deck the card was profoundly overpowered, granting me a consistency that none of the non-blue decks could match. The existence of this kind of hyper-efficient selection in Legacy is one of the things that pushes down other colors.

Of course, I was playing Ponder fair. Another guy showed up to the tournament with Blazing Shoal Infect, and I shudder to think what a finely-tuned version of that would do to the top tables. To say nothing of the myriad other combos in Modern that may have been lacking an extra piece of filtering to be truly broken. Can you imagine a Goryo's Vengeance deck fueled by Ponder and Preordain? No thank you.

  • Mental MisstepMental Misstep, Treasure Cruise: No, no, no, no, no. Don't even think about putting your hand in that cookie jar, kids. These ones are truly the busted of the busted, and this tournament reminded me why.

I have a strong suspicion that Delver is the best archetype in no-banned-list Modern. The two other formats where Treasure Cruise has been allowed to run rampant saw UR Delver soar to the top of the standings and stay there. When you can run 4 Ancestral Recalls nobody can out-grind you. When you have 4 Mental Missteps nobody can (reliably) out-aggro you. Just how are you supposed to beat these two cards in tandem?

Jund and the other (comparatively) fair decks like Eldrazi certainly stand a chance. But resolving a draw-three against these decks is no joke, and they can't really interact with the top of your library or the stack. And then there was the game my opponent's turn one Deathrite Shaman on the play never hit the battlefield... If you unbanned Deathrite, Punishing Fire, Eye of Ugin, and Treasure Cruise all at once, maybe you'd have a viable metagame---but don't expect the hallmark diversity we've enjoyed in Modern over the last however many years to persist. There are very few strategies that can contend with Misstep and Cruise, and they have to do so at the same time as combating non-interactive combo. Not likely.

Testing the Limits

Next week Sheridan is back for the Wednesday slot, and I'm excited to see what he cooks up for us. In the meantime, what are your experiences testing with banned cards? Any poignant insight into the banned list or cards you think can come off safely? Let me know in the comments and we'll see you next week.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for August 3rd, 2016

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of August 1st, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that sets of Theros (THS) are out of stock in the store, so this set is no longer redeemable.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Aug1

Flashback Draft of the Week

Flashback drafts are on hiatus for the next two weeks as the focus shifts to the new limited environment with the introduction of Eldritch Moon (EMN) to Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) draft and sealed deck. Flashback drafts will return with triple Zendikar (ZEN) draft on August 17th.

Standard

All eyes will be on Pro Tour Eldritch Moon this weekend in Sydney as the pros battle it out in the new Standard format. Since EMN was only released on MTGO this week, there is the potential for large price swings on any new cards that make an impact.

For Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad, Jon Finkel was piloting a deck based around Seasons Past that saw that card briefly jump in price to over 10 tix as a result. Speculators who can spend some time this weekend would be well served by paying attention to the early results and coverage, and acting accordingly.

Nissa, Voice of Zendikar was another card that made an appearance in the early coverage at the last Pro Tour stop. It went on to anchor the G/W Tokens strategy, peaking at over 15 tix. It recently came down in price all the way to 7 tix but has now rebounded to a little over 9 tix.

Although MTGO doesn't get the duel decks anymore, this card's presence in the Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis iteration of that product will lower its price ceiling in paper, and thus the digital version through redemption. If G/W Tokens is a strategy that gets left behind this weekend, look for further price declines on this card.

Modern

There are plenty of deals popping up in the Modern format at the moment. One doesn't have to look too far beyond Theros (THS) to see Master of Waves and Thoughtseize are at attractive prices. Since the merfolk is a single printing and a mythic rare, it's a better long-term bet for speculators, but both are a good price for players to get their play set.

Elsewhere in THS, Elspeth, Sun's Champion is down below 2 tix after briefly getting as high as 6 tix during the Eldrazi Winter. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver has a similar price trajectory. Both of these cards have proven to be fringe Modern-playable and current prices are a good level for speculators and players alike.

These are the kind of cards you want to salt away in order to be ready for a hype-based price spike from a big event in the winter, such as a Grand Prix. Buying these now while they are out of favor and no one is paying attention to Modern is a good long-term value play on a format where every strategy comes in and out of fashion over time.

Standard Boosters

Like many singles, booster packs have also taken a hit this week with the tix-only EMN prerelease events. Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) boosters are testing their lows again at 1.6 tix, while Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) boosters have held up relatively well and are only down 0.2 tix to 3.1 tix. SOI boosters took a big hit, dropping all the way to 2.5 tix this week, but have since recovered to 3 tix with the opening of the draft queues and sealed leagues to product entry on Monday.

With the price movement of BFZ boosters as a guide, there is no long-term hope that SOI boosters will recover further in price from the current level. The reason for this is tied to the introduction of the popular sealed leagues. These events have greatly expanded the supply of boosters into the market.

With this week's release of EMN, there has been a step down in the demand for SOI boosters since you went from needing six SOI boosters to play a sealed league (or three to draft), all the way to two SOI boosters (or one to draft). However, the excess supply of boosters has had three months to accumulate in the market and in players' collections; this supply will not be changing like the demand is---so in the face of this demand shock I expect the medium- to long-term trend to mirror that of BFZ boosters.

BFZ boosters might never go above 2 tix again. While this set had all the above factors working against it, it also had the presence of the Expeditions weighing down the value of BFZ cards in both paper and on MTGO (the latter via the set redemption link). SOI does not have Expeditions, which means we can expect a higher price floor on boosters and sets, relative to BFZ.

The demand shock will only be further amplified when Kaladesh is released in the fall. This will further reduce demand for SOI boosters as sealed leagues for SOI block end and SOI block draft queues switch to the 6-2-2-2 prize format. This skews booster prize support relative to the cost of entry to favor EMN boosters over SOI boosters.

Add it all up, and SOI boosters are a long-term dog from a speculative standpoint. Speculators should avoid buying these at current prices, and players should try to sell any excess boosters sooner rather than later.

As Sylvain observed in his article this week, the drop to 2.5 tix on SOI boosters over the weekend was a profitable short-term flip. Keep this in mind for Kaladesh boosters with the release of Aether Revolt in the winter. The conditions for this trade will be identical, so as long as the trade is not too crowded, the potential profit of 0.5 tix per booster will be available.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. In the past I have identified foil mythic rares as being good long-term value. This has been borne out by the steady rise in the price of foil mythic rares from both BFZ and OGW. Although the change to online prerelease events has affected foil pricing (in particular driving up the value of foil uncommons), I believe the foil mythic strategy will still work for both SOI and EMN. We'll know whether I am right or not when we observe how prices change in the fall after the release of Kaladesh.

BFZ and OGW foil mythic rares only started rising substantially after the release of SOI, meaning they were no longer being actively opened in draft. If SOI and EMN follow this same pattern, then this will confirm the original hypothesis, that foil mythic rares represent a good long-term store of value and are bound to rise over time.

With all this in mind, I took the opportunity this week to put two different foil mythic rares in the portfolio. The one I want to focus on is Decimator of the Provinces from EMN.

I managed to find two copies of this card for under 5 tix. Long-term, the buy price on this card will be at least 5 tix if the foil prices from SOI are any guide. As a long-term speculator, this means my risk of buying this card is zero. However, the short-term upside is substantial as I believe there is a small chance that this card sees play at the upcoming Pro Tour.

When Seasons Past decks were featured at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad, that card quickly rose in price and I was able to sell my foil copies for over 10 tix. This is the potential path for Decimator of the Provinces heading into Pro Tour Eldritch Moon. That being, a card that has seen very little competitive play up to this point getting a considerable amount of exposure and still being in short supply.

With zero long term-risk and a small chance at a short-term upside surprise, buying foil versions of Decimator of the Provinces for 5 tix or less is a no-brainer speculative strategy.

Deck Overview- Kiki-Chord Evolution

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Barring making Day 2 of the Open, there was no way that Jeff Hoogland wasn't going to Top 8 the Modern Classic last weekend with Eldritch Evolution. I didn't know exactly what shell he'd put the card in, but this card is the Hooglandiest. The results are in, and here is his list third place list from the Classic in Baltimore:

Kiki Evolution

Creatures

1 Spellskite
4 Birds of Paradise
2 Eternal Witness
1 Noble Hierarch
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Restoration Angel
1 Reveillark
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Selfless Spirit
1 Thragtusk
4 Voice of Resurgence
3 Wall of Omens
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

Spells

3 Chord of Calling
3 Path to Exile
4 Eldritch Evolution

Lands

3 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Arid Mesa
1 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Horizon Canopy
2 Razorverge Thicket
1 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

3 Engineered Explosives
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Celestial Purge
2 Lightning Helix
1 Path to Exile
1 Kataki, War's Wage
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Previously we have seen builds of this archetype splashing blue or black, but for the newest incarnation Hoogland had deemed three colors sufficient. There's significant demand for all three colors, so it makes sense. I like the 4-3 split in favor of Evolution over Chord of Calling, as this deck wins on the spot when it gets set up, and mana efficiency is the most important thing in Modern.

The major card slot updates are that the deck now features a maindeck Thragtusk, which is largely a stepping stone to the new Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite technology. The other updates seem less based on Eldritch Evolution, such as a maindeck Eidolon of Rhetoric which I believe is typically relegated to the sideboard. Perhaps the ability to tutor for it earlier was a tipping point, or maybe the matchups it is wanted in are just more popular. The maindeck Selfless Spirit also doesn't have anything to do with Evolution, but it's another cool Eldritch Moon update.

One criticism I have for the deck, is that I feel like there could be a six drop to Evolve a four into in a pinch. Something like a Wurmcoil Engine or a Sun Titan could be gas. This deck has never really had problems generating value, so maybe they're just not needed, but Sun Titan sounds so sweet!

Eldritch Evolution has already cooled off substantially from pre-order prices, and a big part of this is a lack of Standard demand. I don't think that anybody was doubting that the card could be a force in Modern though. The current price of $5-6 seems totally reasonable for Modern play, though you're not really getting a deal and the card will likely sit at that price or decline slowly for a while. The only exception to this would be the card making its way into Standard, though to my knowledge this is extremely unlikely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldritch Evolution

Got There! PPTQ Report (1st Place)

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Ah, the first PPTQ of the season. When hope springs anew, the Colorado metagame is still in its default, Burn-heavy state, and everyone thinks that their preparation was absolutely flawless and that this one is theirs for the taking. Then I usually bomb out of the Top 8, everything goes into wildly overblown flux when some brew runs the tables, and a lot of players saltily grumble their way out the doors. But for that opening bell of the first round it's a really good and positive experience!

aether-vial-cropped

Ever since the PPTQ system was introduced I have been grinding away to get to an RPTQ. And just missing. Last Modern season I top-eighted all but four PPTQ's in the Denver area and lost in the finals four times. I've haven't even come close in Standard and Sealed tournaments. Realistically I wasn't expecting a different result this time, but at minimum PPTQ reports are content that I don't have to put any real thought into, so I always make a point of attending as many as I can. Silver linings and all that.

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The Deck

This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone, but I took my usual Merfolk deck to the PPTQ. I've been looking very hard at both Eldrazi Taxes and UW Spirits but Taxes hasn't performed very well for me, and the meta didn't appear to favor Spirits before the tournament. I was expecting a lot of Burn and GRx aggro and I haven't come across a Spirits list that can realistically beat Tron or aggro. If the meta was going to be heavily Jeskai and Jund, I would definitely have taken Spirits, optimally tuned or not.

UW Merfolk, by David Ernenwein (PPTQ Dublin, 1st Place)

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
2 Spell Queller
3 Master of Waves

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Echoing Truth

Lands

7 Island
4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Seachrome Coast
3 Mutavault
2 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

3 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Hibernation
2 Meddling Mage
2 Deprive
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

I'd played Spell Queller twice in paper prior to the PPTQ, and I was generally impressed. It was better than Vendilion Clique every time I played it, though I did miss the option to just drop Clique in for free information and three damage. Against any contextual spell like Searing Blaze it is an all-star and as a tempo card it is astoundingly good. Quelling Supreme Verdict is just as awesome as you think it is. Combined with Kira it creates no-win card disadvantage scenarios for control and midrange decks. As the report will show, Queller is definitely a Modern-playable card and if your meta looks like the one I hit I would definitely recommend giving the spirit a try.

Harbinger of the TidesIt is, however, extremely weak against Infect, Tron, Zoo, and Primeval Titan. It's rare that you Quell anything relevant against Tron or Titan, and Infect and Zoo are too fast. Given what I knew about the June meta and the usual Colorado metagame, I came prepared to audible Queller into Harbinger of the Tides if my pre-tournament scouting showed a large number of known Infect and Zoo pilots. Clique is pretty average against all those decks, but Harbinger is very good against Zoo and Infect---since my matchups against Tron and Titan decks are pretty good anyway, I wanted the more powerful card for those specific matchups.

I played three Rest in Peace in my board and I'm starting to think that the full four might be necessary. Dredge is a bad matchup and it's growing in popularity, but it is very beatable if you're prepared. Rest is also very good elsewhere, which might justify the additional space.

The Tournament

Glistener ElfI arrived at the tournament site about a half hour early to scout the field and finalize my deck. There really weren't any test games going on for me to observe, but the advantage of being a dedicated grinder is that you recognize other grinders and learn the kinds of decks they play. As such I didn't see any known Tron or Infect players in the field, which was a relief. Who I did see were a lot of Jeskai and Burn players, so Spell Queller got the start.

32 players showed up for the tournament, which meant five rounds and that the magic record was 3-1-1. Unfortunately, the venue was a relatively narrow west-facing building (in the middle of summer) that was also filled with a PC gaming bank and a Yu-Gi-Oh! tournament (which I did not know still existed) and the AC was broken. Yeah, it got really hot and muggy really quickly. It was far more comfortable to stand outside in the actual sun. I'm certain that the heat was responsible for a lot of poor play over the course of the day.

Round 1 - Everett, Nahiri Jeskai (Win 2-1)

I start off at table one. Grr, bad sign. As I mentioned in my States report I don't normally win when I start at a high table. This was going to be especially difficult as the store had set up table one to be a streaming feature match in the back of the place. Where there was no airflow. It quickly got stifling back there. And ultimately for naught as technical problems kept the streaming from ever actually going off. Oh well.

I know Everett as another grinder who usually plays slower decks, frequently oddball Gifts Ungiven decks. This could be a good sign since Merfolk is pretty strong against random combo-y decks and I have graveyard hate, but it could also be quite bad if he has something really weird and powerful.

Game One

I win the play and lead with Wanderwine Hub and Cursecatcher. Everett plays a Scalding Tarn and says go, which tells me nothing. I attack, then play Master of the Pearl Trident to play Snapcaster Magearound removal. Everett just cracks his Tarn for a tapped Hallowed Fountain, then plays Sulfur Falls and says go. Jeskai, probably control. Hmm, oddly mainstream choice for what I've seen him play in the past.

I attack and Everett flashes in Snapcaster Mage to try and trade with my Master, but I Echoing Truth his Mage. My thinking is that he must be removal-light and I'd rather not trade off creatures if that's the case. My read is correct, as he just plays a Path and then a pair of Nahiri to slow me down before Kira shuts off his removal. Everett concedes, I think prematurely, to me playing a pair of Silvergill Adepts while at eight life.

Sideboarding:

-4 Path to Exile

+3 Rest in Peace
+1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

At most Jeskai plays Snapcaster and Vendilion Clique as creatures and graveyard hate is very good against them, so we take out Path and add in Rests.

Game Two

My opening hand is fine with Aether Vial into Spreading Seas, but I draw lands instead of creatures and just never put any kind of offense together. Everett does end up discarding Emrakul, the Aeons Torn to Nahiri when I have Rest in Peace in play, but he was in complete control and never really needed the "combo" to win.

Game Three

1_nahiriI mulligan into a hand with Vial and creatures so I keep. It takes a while for me to get onto the board, but Everett never sees sweepers and floods as badly as I did in the previous game. I put the game out of reach by Echoing Truthing an Adept in response to Lightning Bolt and eventually play two Master of Waves when Everett goes hellbent to win the game.

We quickly pack up and get out of the shop. We were both sweating so badly it was getting hard to hold our cards. I take some comfort in a round one win, but my history of starting at high tables and then bombing tempers any joy I might be feeling.

Round 2 - David Z., Dredge (Win 2-1)

And my pessimism is justified when I see the pairings. David is the Dredge player from my IQ report a few weeks ago and I'm expecting to get crushed. Losing the play doesn't help matters.

Game One

He plays Insolent Neonate turn one and dredges Golgari Grave-Troll. Just about as good as it gets. He gets favorable dredges and goes a bit wild with Life from the Loam. I may have still won had I gotten another turn with multiple Vials and a Master of Waves, but he has Rally the Peasants and three Narcomoebas when I'm at nine. Dredge is a fair and balanced mechanic.

Sideboarding:

-3 Spreading Seas

+3 Rest in Peace

Well, this is why I tell everyone to play hate, so I guess I'll bring mine in. I don't expect to be able to harm his mana very much with Seas and his creatures either block poorly or don't block at all.

Game Two

rest in peaceI have an Aether Vial and two Rests in my opener and the Wanderwine Hub to play them. David has two Abrupt Decay to try and get free, but I draw my last Rest and he only had the two Decays. I win since his deck doesn't do anything anymore.

As we shuffle up for game three there's some banter about Dredge's degeneracy and David mentions that it would be wild for him to keep a hand with three Simian Spirit Guides and three Faithless Lootings but no land. Guess what happens?

Game Three

David draws his hand, stares for a minute, and says he has to keep. I mulligan once to try and find RiP but keep a six because it has Cursecatcher. I think that taking one mulligan to try and find hate cards is fine, but after that the odds drop enough that I don't think that strategy is viable. It also puts you dead if your opponent can answer the hate. I don't think it's worth the risk.

Given his reaction, I ask if he has it, to which he responds "Kinda," and exiles Spirit Guide to play Looting, discarding nonsense, Grave-Troll. He does it again, dredging six for Troll and then two for Dakmor Salvage. He gets a Narcomoeba, plays Salvage to trigger twoBloodghasts, and gets a Prized Amalgam at end of turn.

I play Cursecatcher and say go.

He dredges Life, pauses, then attacks with everything. I know he has no land at this point so I trade with a Bloodghast. David says go.

I play Adept, then trade with the other Ghast after David tries drawing a card like the rest of us. Still no land.

I play Kira and eat his 'moeba. Still no land.

Burning InquiryFinally in the clear at five life I play out lords, trade for the Amalgam and beat him down. He finally gets a Ghost Quarter which turns Salvage into Mountain so he can use Burning Inquiry, but he admits that he doesn't have an actual out since all the good creatures he could potentially muster won't be able to block.

Variance won me that game. Had he drawn a red source David would have Inquiried himself through most of his deck and just crushed me. Those are just the breaks with a degenerate deck; you will always be as much a risk to yourself as your opponent.

I get done pretty fast and flee outside once again. While chatting with colleagues, one of the Yu-Gi-Oh! players comes up and asks if the Modern metagame is aggro- or control-focused. When he hears that Colorado's metagame is Burn heavy, he nods and says that it's the same way for them (...they have burn cards?), and apparently out of state players will pre-board against Burn when they come here (there's a Yu-Gi-Oh! circuit?). I guess there's just something about this state that makes us want to watch the world burn.

Round 3 - Paul, Gruul Aggro (Win 2-0)

Speaking of, I know that Paul is an aggro player and often packs Zoo. I'm not looking forward to this match, especially when he wins the play. Still, if I win this I should be lock for Top 8 as long as I get a draw. This is the most pleasant match of the day for me since I'm at table four which is right in front of the door and the fans.

Game One

Reckless BushwackerWe both mulligan and Paul leads with Goblin Guide, who gives me lands every time he attacks this game. I have Vial to start and Paul misses a land drop, just playing Experiment One.

I think I'm pulling ahead with Adept when Paul plays finds a land and plays Burning-Tree Emissary and Reckless Bushwacker and attacks. I trade my Adept for the Experiment and drop to eight. Fortunately Paul continues to stall on mana and I am able to recover, trading creatures off until I get Kira into Master of Waves and win at three life.

Sideboarding:

-2 Spreading Seas

+2 Hibernation

Seas is just too slow in this matchup since by the time I could deploy it Paul should have built a pretty good board, which should make Hibernation amazing. I still want a few in to islandwalk through a stalled board.

Game Two

Master of WavesI mulligan into a six that has a Path and white source. Paul doesn't have a one-drop, and this lack of speed costs him the match. I win at thirteen life, having used several Paths to break up attacks and trading my creatures for his. Eventually the board stalls between a Ghor-Clan Rampager and a Tarmogoyf on his side, and Kira plus Master of Waves and Adept on mine. My tokens keep him from attacking and a Seas shuts off one of his two white sources so he cannot Path Master through Kira. Kira beats him from 17 to 8 life before I find a lord to finally swing for the win.

Paul got my opening Aether Vial with Destructive Revelry but admitted to only bringing in the one and wished he had saved it for my Seas. This ends up being important later.

Standings are posted before round four. There are only four undefeated players at this point. We do the math and we can all comfortably draw the next two rounds and make it in, and do so. I have some incentive to play round five for the seeding, but my opponent is vulnerable if he loses so I agree to draw and we all flee the premises to find air conditioning.

I have to give the judge at the tournament props at this point. He showed up an hour and a half before the rest of us in all black. Not sure how he survived in his official judge attire when the rest of us were broiling in the afternoon heat.

I end up in third place when all is said and done. It's a clean break of two 12-pointers, four 11's, and two 10's. I forgot to write down everyone's deck, but I know that besides me there was a Burn deck, Affinity, Paul the Gruul player, and my Quarterfinal opponent. It turns out that sometime during round four the AC was fixed and between that and players dropping, the temperature is getting more tolerable at this point.

Quarterfinals - Steve, Ascendant Thing (Win 2-1)

Game One

Steve and I were paired round four and drew, which has apparently come back to haunt me. I know Steve to be a control player, so I'm very confused when he plays life and Gitaxian Probes me. In turns out he's on the Pyromancer Ascension/Thing in the Ice deck, which is unfortunate for me because by playing the first few turns like he was a control deck I give him far too much time to sculpt his hand and eventually activate his Ascension.

Pyromancer AscensionAt this point I've got him to five, and he's used up all his Lighning Helix's, one Bolt, and two Things, and I have a solid board with Queller in hand. He flashes back Faithless Looting, putting the final counter on his Ascension and setting himself up to go off. My understanding, which Steve shares, is that if a flashbacked spell would leave the stack from anywhere there is a replacement effect that exiles it instead, meaning that Queller is just like Remand in this situation. I play Queller.

We are both very surprised when the judge informs us that is not how it works and that the exile clause on Queller fulfills the requirement of flashback and the Looting does go under Queller and if Queller dies it acts just like it was never flashed back. He confirms the ruling and I simply state, "Well, now I get wrecked." Steve agrees, Bolts the Queller and takes about fifteen minutes to draw all but seven cards in his deck, flip a Thing, and then stop going off because he's afraid of decking.

I point out that if this were normal Storm it would be over already because he would have actually won or I would have scooped since he wouldn't fizzle with several active Ascensions. As is it takes him a few turns to actually kill me since he didn't have Bolt in hand at the end.

Sideboarding:

-3 Spreading Seas
-2 Path to Exile

+3 Rest in Peace
+2 Deprive

I think a lot about bringing in Meddling Mage, but he has enough removal that I don't think it will work and I can't take out any more Paths due to Thing. Much like Storm, RiP should wreck him.

Game Two

I keep a hand with a lot of three-drops, Cursecatcher, Vial, and Deprive. Steve Probes me and sees Deprive. Immediately thereafter I draw RiP, and while part of me wants to just slam it down, I figure that he's planning to bait my Deprive next turn so I just play my land and pass. Steve obliges me with Thing in the Ice, intended as bait to protect the Ascensions he reveals after the fact that he's holding. I dutifully counter and then slam down RiP and Steve looks very sad. It takes me a while to kill him since I don't have many creatures and he has many Helix's but without a graveyard he runs out of gas and dies.

Game Three

Blood MoonI mulligan and keep a hand with Vial and Rest in Peace, which I resolve. Steve plays a surprise Blood Moon afterward and I'm down to one Island. Fortunately he has no followup and I stick a Kira and eventually a Master of Waves. A flipped Thing buys him some breathing room, but I just rebuild and he's struggling to find playable spells, using Manamorphose to get the white mana he needs for Helix at one point. However I just keep chipping away and he dies with one counter left on a second thing and a white spell in hand.

Blood Moon hurt me and slowed me down considerably but I think Steve was hurt far more in the end. I'm the last result, and take a break before the next round to calm down and get my head back together.

Semifinals - Greg, Affinity (Win 2-0)

I figure that this is the end for me. Greg is on Affinity and he is good with it. I don't like my prospects. Being on the play is my only saving grace.

Game One

Etched ChampionI open with Vial, then a Cursecatcher and Seas for Blinkmoth Nexus. Steve has a hemorrhage of artifacts with the relevant ones being Arcbound Ravager and Etched Champion. I play Lord of Atlantis and Master of the Pearl Trident with another Cursecatcher and hit for six. He plays out his hand, ending in Master of Etherium, but only attacks for three with Champion. I attack for eight and then drop Master of Waves for seven tokens. Greg needs to hit Cranial Plating to get close to lethal and he doesn't hit.

I don't think I won that game; I think Greg lost by not being aggressive enough with Ravager pumping his Champion. I had a Mutavault to block once but by taking a more conservative line he ensured that I didn't have to be careful with my mana and I won the race when I don't think I'm supposed to in that situation.

Sideboarding:

-4 Aether Vial
-1 Cursecatcher

+3 Stony Silence
+2 Hurkyl's Recall

Standard Affinity strategy. Very glad that I overprepare for this matchup.

Game Two

Stony SilenceI mulligan a very slow hand and keep one with Recall. He has no haymaker cards, just Etched Champions, and comes out slowly with Vault Skirge as his only turn one play. When he taps out for his second Champion I pull the trigger on Recall end of turn, which also kills his Glimmervoid. I then draw and play Stony Silence and the game is over. In Greg's words, sometimes it's just your day.

Huh. I wasn't expecting that. Maybe it really is my day. We're done well before the other match which turns out to be Burn vs. my Gruul opponent from earlier. Gruul wins thanks to bigger creatures, so the finals will be a rematch, only now I'm on the play.

Finals - Paul, Gruul Aggro (Win 2-0)

Game One

Spreading SeasMy opening hand has a Vial and two Spreading Seas. If I was on the draw or without the Vial this would be a mulligan since playing Seas keeps me from developing the relevant part of my board in the face of his aggression. As is it works out perfectly and he has only one usable land this game and Vial lets me stabilize while shutting down his lands. It was lucky for me it worked this way, as afterward Paul showed me an absolutely stacked hand that needed two colored sources to be good. I use Queller to further slow him down by taking creatures and then eating removal that would have been better used elsewhere. Sometimes it's just your day.

Sideboarding:

-2 Spreading Seas
-1 Aether Vial

+2 Hibernation
+1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

The same strategy as before, just with one less Revelry target and an extra bit of protection for my Master of Waves.

Game Two

Paul mulligans and thinks for a while before keeping, but keeps his scry very quickly. This Path to Exiletells me he has a speculative hand that is about to pan out. He goes Mountain, go. I just play a Seachrome Coast and say go. Paul bolts in a Temple Garden and plays Wild Nacatl. Huh. No really broken turn two. I (correctly, as Paul admits afterward) guess that he has a hand stacked with removal but no other creatures. I have a Master of Waves that I know will win me the game, I just have to draw out his Path to Exiles.

I proceed to slowly trade creatures for removal and three-damage chunks until I play a Master of the Pearl Trident with two Mutavaults in play. He Paths my Master when I block his Nacatl with Vault, I Path his Nacatl in response and he plays Ghor-Clan Rampagerwhich I Spell Queller. He Paths the Queller when I attack and then I play Cursecatcher and Master with another Queller in hand. Paul fails to draw anything relevant and concedes. Victory!

Looking Ahead

Finally winning after so many fruitless grinding seasons is incredibly cathartic and joyous. It's also a bit frustrating because I qualified for the first RPTQ in over a year that isn't being held down the street from where I live. You ever get the feeling that the universe is trolling you? I realize that most of you probably have to travel for yours all the time, but I didn't until just now. And I hate poor timing.

It's also slightly annoying from a writing standpoint because I was planning on doing a whole series of articles on the adjustments and metagaming that go into a qualifier season held up against my tournament results. Having won the very first tournament, that really isn't possible anymore. So join me next week when I have to change gears and actually come up with an idea for my article. See you in the comments!

Insider: Undervalued Standard Picks Before Pro Tour EMN

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I love Pro Tours. The only thing I'm not loving right now is that I wish I was there getting ready to battle. I deferred my invite to Dublin because of the visa situation and I'm having Pro Tour withdrawals right about now.

Pro Tours are an exciting time in Magic. For competitors it's the culmination of tons of hard work, blood, sweat and tears. For fans it's the biggest stage and the highest drama. For collectors and financiers it's the time when stuff gets crazy.

The Pro Tour basically tells the rest of the world, "Welcome to the Standard format you will be playing for the next few months." The pros figure it out so that everybody else doesn't necessarily have to. Sure, there are slight tweaks, tune-ups, and sometimes an off-the-wall brew yet to come---but for the most part the PT defines the subsequent Standard metagame. The best minds, building the best decks, for the highest stakes.

Looking at PT Eldritch Moon, what can we expect? Where will the gains come?

Well, first things first. We are at the tail end of a format that is about to rotate. For the most part we know most of the main pieces of this format.

  • Bant Collected Company
  • GBx (Golgari, Sultai, Season's Past, Abzan) Control
  • G/W Tokens
  • W(r) Humans

Let's use these established players in Standard, together with what we know from EMN so far, to predict what might be undervalued moving into the Pro Tour.

Sylvan Advocate

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Advocate

The first thing I notice is how Sylvan Advocate is in almost every deck in Standard. Interesting, right?

Sylvan Advocate might quietly (or loudly, depending on who you ask) be the best card in Standard. The price seems a little bit low to me considering the card's proven track record and ubiquity. It isn't often that a card can be in so many great decks and still linger below $5.

It's very probable that Advocate will continue to be great even after Dragons of Tarkir and Origins leave the format in October. Every green deck in Standard will seriously consider running this card.

Expect Advocate to hold its price and make creeping gains in the near future. There will be a time for getting out (the card will eventually lose value because it sees no Modern play) but I think there is upside in the meantime.

Prized Amalgam

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prized Amalgam

Another "cog" type card that I find very interesting is Prized Amalgam. The card is already a staple in the new Modern Dredge decks and is pretty decent in general. One simply cannot overstate the significance of a creature that returns to play from the graveyard without having to pay mana.

With that being said, I think there is a pretty realistic chance of Amalgam having a breakout Pro Tour showing. It has powerful synergy with Haunted Dead and the other zombie cards that can be recurred from the graveyard.

I think on Standard potential alone Prized Amalgam would be an investment opportunity. When we add in the fact that the card is already a Modern winner, the deal feels pretty safe to me. I've been working on trading for copies all week long, so hopefully it has a nice showing in Australia.

Oath of Nissa

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

Oath of Nissa has settled back down into a modest price but perhaps it is about time for the card to start creeping upward.

The card is good. Real good. Good in a way that Wizards doesn't typically allow to see print anymore. It has been quite some time since we've seen a cantrip that looks at the top three and puts one in the grip. Failing to find instants and sorceries reduces the potential for brokenness, but the consistency and selection granted is real. The ability to fix mana for planeswalkers is also significant.

For a single green mana you can't really ask for much more (well, besides Birds of Paradise, which WoTC is definitely not giving us back any time soon). I have already played with this card multiple times in Modern, which means there is a sustainable future price tag. I think we'll continue to see new applications for Oath of Nissa in both Standard and Modern.

Summary Dismissal

There was an error retrieving a chart for Summary Dismissal

I think Summary Dismissal will end up being an important sideboard player. There are plenty of powerful spells in Standard with bananas "upon cast" triggers. Summary Dismissal stops both of these things with one fell dismissive swoop.

Emrakul, the Promised End and Elder Deep-Fiend both threaten to be giant players in the coming metagame. In either case, Summary Dismissal is great as one of the only effective hard counters.

This type of card often gets overlooked, and people waiting until after the Pro Tour to buy decks will be looking to acquire copies. So even if gains are marginal the demand should still be quite real. Dismissal seems like a great card to pull of the unwanted or junk heap.

Traverse the Ulvenwald

There was an error retrieving a chart for Traverse the Ulvenwald

Traverse the Ulvenwald is my pick for the card with the biggest potential this weekend. It's one of the most powerful payoffs in delirium strategies. Demonic Tutor is no joke. There's a reason it's banned in Legacy and restricted in Vintage.

Magic is a game about maximizing options, and a deck full of tutors and great targets pushes the envelope in a very real way. When you can always have the right threat or answer for every situation it becomes difficult to lose!

Of course, it remains to be seen whether or not these decks can consistently and efficiently establish delirium in time. My bet is that they can, which is why I think Traverse is about to take a big step into the center stage and see a nice gain in price.

I could imagine Traverse seeing a lot of play in other formats too, including Modern and Legacy. Minimally, the card is for sure good in Commander which means there will always be some market.

Thalia's Lancers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thalia's Lancers

Thalia's Lancers is a good Magic card. As I already established in the previous section, being able to tutor for a suite of answers is a very effective way to play Magic. Lancers combines this ability with a respectable 4/4 first-striking body.

White has plenty of good tutor targets to make this card effective. Thalia, Bruna, Gisela and Avacyn all come to mind. B/W Control decks playing Thalia's Lancers also make use of her tutoring ability to find the very spicy target, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet. And an Abzan version could theoretically find a singleton Ishkanah, Grafwidow.

Kozilek's Return

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kozilek's Return

I've noticed this card has been creeping up in price on Star City Games but not as much on TCG Player. That is typically a sign of things to come.

Kozilek's Return has undeniable synergy with Distended Mindbender and Elder Deep-Fiend. Whether or not these cards will find homes after the Pro Tour is to be determined. Personally, I think these emerge creatures will make an impact at some point during their stay in Constructed. Whether or not that's now or post-rotation, we will have to wait and see.

BFZ Creature Lands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lumbering Falls

Last but not least, all of the creature lands are poised to make solid gains in the future. First of all, they are all combos with the best and most played card in Standard, Sylvan Advocate.

Second of all, I think all of these lands (and Advocate) are likely to improve in status in October with the Origins and Dragons rotations. We lose all of the Origins/Apocalypse pain lands which means whatever mana fixing is left will become more important. As far as fixing goes, lands that can become creatures and participate in combat are about as good as it gets!

~

Well, those are my picks for the week before PT Eldritch Moon. I'm looking forward to seeing how the metagame will change following the event. Personally, I think we'll see some fun new tech and interesting decks. Here's to hoping for something more than just Bant Company and G/W Tokens---let's see some spicy brews, Pro Tour competitors!

What do you guys think? Did I miss anything that's likely to spike? Feel free to drop your tips, insights and questions into the comments section. I always read them and always respond. In the meantime, enjoy the PT coverage!

Stock Watch- Liliana, the Last Hope

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The new Liliana was met with some skepticism, though now it is generally recognized as a powerful card. It doesn't have the most impressive numbers yet, though it is clear that she can compete. That said, with Liliana's current price you'd think she was a four of in Bant Company or something.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

Liliana did crack the Top 8 in Baltimore, and she was also featured in three more decks in the Top 32. I expect Liliana to continue to put up similar results, though there is clearly a big difference between these results and format dominance. As such, I would expect Liliana to decrease in price unless she starts putting up significantly better results.

$35-40 is either the pre-order price of an over-hyped mythic or a format defining one. Liliana is neither of these things. I would buylist any copies that I had at this time, and expect Liliana's retail price to drop closer to $20 unless she somehow has a dominant Pro Tour performance. If she doesn't crack the Pro Tour Top 8, you'll definitely be sorry to still be holding onto copies of this card.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Deck of the Week: Rainbow Aggro

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Today's deck can perhaps most accurately be described as a motley pile of stuff. If you were paying attention last week, you may have seen this bizarre little deck pop up in the Top 8 of the Star City Games Columbus Classic in the hands of Jack Rumpf. Michael Kinney certainly took notice---he decided to run a list just one card off from Rumpf's in this weekend's Classic in Baltimore, where he finished 13th.

Ancient-Ziggurat-cropped

Somewhat blandly, SCG dubbed the deck "5-color Aggro," but I've decided to christen it with the more evocative name of "Rainbow Aggro." Either way, the deck's strangeness sort of speaks for itself. Take a look:

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Rainbow Aggro, by Michael Kinney (13th, SCG Classic Baltimore)

Creatures

1 Tidehollow Sculler
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Falkenrath Aristocrat
2 Kitchen Finks
3 Mantis Rider
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Qasali Pridemage
4 Siege Rhino
3 Spell Queller
4 Voice of Resurgence
2 Anafenza, the Foremost

Instants

2 Abrupt Decay
4 Path to Exile

Lands

1 Forest
4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Mana Confluence
2 Pillar of the Paruns
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Reflecting Pool

Sideboard

3 Tidehollow Sculler
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Izzet Staticaster
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Sin Collector
1 Spell Queller
2 Stony Silence
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons

Rainbow Aggro's centerpiece feature is undoubtedly the mana base, headlined by kitchen-table and budget Magic all-star, Ancient Ziggurat. We're used to seeing five-color mana bases in combo decks that aim to end the game before the damage from Mana Confluence and the transient nature of Ancient ZigguratGemstone Mine catch up to them. In a similar vein, this deck packs tons of efficient beaters that can deal twenty damage in short order. The nearly all-creature, all-gold spell suite opens up the possibility to run Ziggurat and Pillar of the Paruns. Rounding it all out are three Reflecting Pools, which basically always tap for every color, and the full 8 mana dorks.

So what does this ambitious mana base do for us? Rainbow Aggro gets to run a veritable laundry list of the most efficiently-costed beaters and flexible utility creatures in the format. Gold cards are naturally pushed to begin with, and their natural drawback (difficulty to cast) is all but eliminated by this deck's innovative construction.

Most of these creatures are no stranger to Modern play, and the ones that are (Mantis Rider, Falkenrath Aristocrat) most likely just lack a viable shell. What's truly unique about this deck is its ability to jam all of these in lieu of the less-powerful options other aggro decks use to round out their creature suite. Every point on the curve is the absolute pinnacle of mana-to-value conversion, from Voice of Resurgence, to Spell Queller, to Siege Rhino. You can imagine a draw beginning on Noble Hierarch, followed by Mantis Rider into Siege Rhino will be pretty hard for the interactive decks to beat, and capable of racing many combo draws.

Falkenrath AristocratThe rainbow mana base doesn't just enable the biggest, meanest creatures---it also opens the door to some excellent disruption pieces. Tidehollow Sculler, Spell Queller, Qasali Pridemage, and Voice of Resurgence throw off an opponent's game plan and give Rainbow Aggro game against combo. The sideboard offers even more options for interaction and disruption with Fulminator Mage, Izzet Staticaster, and Gaddock Teeg. Post-board there are a myriad of configurations to position against aggro, combo, or control---and many tools to combat specific archetypes.

Of course, this greedy mana base doesn't come for free. First of all, the cards Rainbow Aggro can run are severely restricted, which we see reflected in the sideboard of nearly all creatures. This phenomenon is also present in decks like Kiki Chord and Abzan Company whose signature tutor and selection effects demand a high creature count. But those decks generally have more sideboard flexibility than this one---Rainbow Aggro legitimately runs the risk of getting non-creatures stuck in hand. We see just the best in non-creature interaction as a result: Abrupt Decay and Path to Exile in the main, Stony Silence in the board.

The problem of uncastable spells can be exacerbated by opponents who attack the mana production directly. A well-timed Bolt on a Birds or Hierarch could spell disaster. To say nothing of the nightmare scenario of a resolved Blood Moon.

Spell QuellerMulliganing with this deck might also be occasionally rough, if you fan out an opener of just Reflecting Pools and Pillar of the Paruns. Neither of those cards will cast a turn one Birds or Hierarch. I suspect this was what informed the sole change Kinney made to Rumpf's build from the week before, cutting a Pillar for the fourth Mana Confluence.

I'm skeptical that this deck really boasts enough extra raw power and efficiency compared to traditional Zoo and Company builds to justify the sketchy mana. That said, as more creatures get printed in Modern the stock of Ancient Ziggurat et.al. goes up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this archetype gather some steam in the future. After all, if you're the only deck that gets to run all the best creatures, you might just be able to pound-for-pound out-muscle the competition.

Announcing Modern Nexus Primers

Finally, I'm excited to announce a new project here at Modern Nexus: archetype primers! We've previously run primers on specific decks in the past, but never compiled all the major archetypes together in one place before. The goal is to provide a one-stop resource for anyone looking to get into Modern for the first time or explore a new archetype. These primers will offer in-depth strategic advice on metagame positioning, key plays, sideboarding, and the strengths and weaknesses of different variants.

This is something of a long-term goal, and I'm not sure what the time frame will be. In any case, we're looking for help from archetype specialists in the Modern community to write these primers. If you're highly experienced with a certain deck or style of deck and interested in sharing your wisdom, we'd love to hear from you! Contact me at jason@quietspeculation.com for more information.

Deck Overview- Simic Crush

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For an old-ish timer like me it was great watching Osyp win the Open this weekend in Baltimore, though his deck choice was rather boring. The deck that I and many others were rooting for was the Crush of Tentacles value deck that Cory Dissinger cracked the Top 8 with as the first seed. Unfortunately, Cory didn't make it past the quarterfinals, but his performance in the swiss was nonetheless very impressive. His deck looks quite odd, but there's a lot to like about it:

Simic Crush

Creatures

1 Hangarback Walker
1 Bounding Krasis
4 Den Protector
1 Elvish Visionary
4 Noose Constrictor
1 Void Grafter
1 Emrakul, the Promised End
1 Ishkanah, Grafwidow
2 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer

Spells

2 Kiora, Master of the Depths
1 Clash of Wills
2 Pulse of Murasa
3 Oath of Nissa
4 Crush of Tentacles
2 Nissa's Pilgrimage
3 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

9 Forest
4 Island
2 Blighted Woodland
2 Evolving Wilds
4 Lumbering Falls
1 Rogue's Passage
3 Yavimaya Coast

Sideboard

4 Deathmist Raptor
2 Gnarlwood Dryad
1 World Breaker
2 Aerial Volley
1 Clash of Wills
2 Negate
1 Summary Dismissal
1 Void Shatter
1 Ishkanah, Grafwidow

If you get to enough mana, you can play a face down Den Protector, flip it up, and recast Crush of Tentacles every turn! Of course, that's just one of many things that this deck does. More commonly your value chain will be focused around Pulse of Murasa and Den Protector. The minor delirium theme also adds a lot to the deck, as Ishkanah, Grafwidow is one of the best value cards in Standard, and Emrakul, the Promised End is arguably the best creature that you could be casting.

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Some of the numbers look very odd. I'd be inclined to find space for the fourth Oath of Nissa, I don't really understand a 2-1 Jace-Elvish Visionary split, and I really don't get why this deck wants a Bounding Krasis hanging out, but these criticisms are very minor.

Noose Constrictor is an odd choice considering that the deck doesn't have any madness spells, though there's a lot to like about this include as well. Constrictor blocks all the Spell Quellers that are rampant in the format, and can even trade with an Archangel Avacyn if you don't mind pitching a couple cards. This deck is pretty good at making up card advantage, and can afford to pitch a card here and there. It's also nice to be able to enable delirium with this discard outlet, and the card definitely surprised me this weekend.

Crush of Tentacles has surged all the way up to about $6, which is probably about right for a fringe playable Standard deck. If a more refined version shows up and holds a significant share of the metagame there could be more growth from here, though I'd be more inclined to sell or trade off copies that I had at this point in time.

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Insider: High Stakes MTGO – July 24th to July 30th

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Hi and welcome back to another High Stakes MTGO article!

Eldritch Moon finally hit MTGO this past weekend. As expected, the big global price depreciation that comes along with these release events has put a lot specs on hold but also created several buying opportunities. Eldritch Moon boosters (for a quickflip) and Shadows over Innistrad boosters (for a short- to mid-term run) were among the potential specs of this past weekend---as were a few singles from all of the three most recent Standard sets.

Unexpectedly, the price of a Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) full set hit a record low this past weekend. This trend is very unusual, if not totally unseen, for a Standard set that is not the newest draft format and still in its first year. A BFZ full set is currently 20 tix cheaper that it was about two months ago. Consequently several mythics and rares are also at or close to their lowest price point now.

In this regard I wonder if a card like Quarantine Field, which hit a record low at 0.6 tix a few days ago, doesn't represent a great Standard spec. Similarly, a few BFZ rares including Radiant Flames, Drowner of Hope, Painful Truths and Endless One are getting very close to bulk prices at the moment. These cards have seen competitive play in the past---why not get into a spec with almost zero risk?

I also sold about half a dozen cards this past week to generate more tix on the account, to mixed results. I notably closed my Zendikar fetchland positions---not at all with what I had in mind originally, but so be it.

Here is the link to the live portfolio.

Buys This Week

CT

After a little spike at the end of Eternal Masters (EMA) release events, the price of EMA Cabal Therapy dropped again and even reached a lower price than what I paid for my first 28 copies. Since I didn't have a large stock of this card yet I simply reloaded on a few more copies. I really think this is a solid mid- to long-term spec, especially at current buy prices.

Gc

Earlier in July, I was a little bit too ambitious when I bought some Gravecrawlers at 3.6 tix each. Nonetheless, with or without Cryptbreaker the recurring zombie from Dark Ascension sees periodic play in Modern, so with a price back in the 2.5-2.8 tix range I decided to pick up a few more playsets.

SOI

With the prices seen as of Saturday night, executing quickflips with Eldritch Moon (EMN) boosters looked to be tedious and like too much of a grind. If I have some spare time on Sunday and EMN packs stay around 3.7 tix, I might take a chance on them.

On the other hand, Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) boosters took a big dive, falling from a solid 3 tix to 2.4 tix this past weekend. That booster spec opportunity seemed much more profitable to me. I'm expecting the price of these packs to rebound to 3 tix by the end of the month, or maybe even sooner.

Sales This Week

The second half of my Goyfs is sold. Another losing spec I had to let go rather than let these tix be sequestrated forever waiting for an improbable increase in Tarmogoyf's price.

Although this spec wasn't exactly sold at the top of the curve, I'm happy with it nonetheless. A 50% profit is what I was looking for and that's exactly what I got. It wouldn't have been a great move to hold onto the Gorges now hoping for more, with Scars of Mirrodin flashback drafts scheduled in September.

What could have been a nice series of moderate profits turned out to be the exact opposite---a streak of losing positions. With Zendikar flashback drafts coming up I decided to fully bite the bullet here and liquidate my remaining copies. We'll see very soon if it was the right decision.

9 to 10 tix was my initial target price and now that the value of this mass removal spell has risen again I don't want to skip a selling opportunity one more time. There might be more to come with Kozilek's Return. However, the first two Star City Games Standard Opens with EMN didn't particularly make this card a must, so I don't feel like I'm going to miss much at this point.

BotG

One more Born of the Gods full set sold this week. At this pace it might take a while to sell my other 16 sets, but I'm in no particular rush here.

On My Radar

Nothing very original this week again. I'll be monitoring my SOI booster spec closely, although I don't expect the price to significantly rise before the end of SOI release events. I'm looking to sell them around 3 tix, and I'll be interested in buying more if the price sticks around 2.4-2.6 tix longer.

Pro Tour Eldritch Moon is obviously going to be the big thing to keep an eye on this coming weekend. I sure do hope a lot of BFZ cards show up in new decks, considering how deeply committed I am with BFZ (full sets, singles and boosters).

Besides hoping for something I have no control over, I'll also be trying to do some last-minute shopping with Oath of the Gatewatch, SOI and some EMN mythics to try and capitalize on the PT hype.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Revel Yell: Introducing Traverse Delver

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I remember scrolling through Eldritch Moon spoilers and passing over Bedlam Reveler, the last card I hadn't read that day. The image was in Portuguese, and my hopes were low. "A 3/4 for 8," I actually thought to myself. "There's no way I could ever have a use for this card." But I read it anyway, and immediately knew I could not have been more wrong.

insectile aberration-cropped

The first Bedlam Reveler decks I built explored the card's force in midrange archetypes, but it's no secret my favorite kind of Magic involves attacking with a certain 3/2 flyer. I set the bar pretty high with Delver decks, and have taken so long to publish an article on Reveler in Delver because I wanted to make sure I had something worthwhile. It might have taken a couple weeks, but I feel that way now.

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Aggressive Beginnings

My first go at marrying Bedlam Reveler and Delver of Secrets involved maxing out the Devil's numbers in an Izzet shell. This deck sought to play as low-to-the-ground as possible and use reach to put games away quickly.

UR Bedlam, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Goblin Guide
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Bedlam Reveler

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Vapor Snag
2 Mutagenic Growth

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Lava Spike

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Mountain
1 Island

Sideboard

2 Negate
2 Dispel
2 Forked Bolt
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Blood Moon
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Invasive Surgery
1 Natural State

Early bouts of testing with the deck showed promise. Drawing Reveler against midrange decks made games very easy. UR Bedlam still struggled against faster linear decks, which it lacked adequate interaction for. It also had a hard time beating midrange decks that could deal preemptively with Reveler (often with Thoughtseize, but sometimes with Kolaghan's Command plus Liliana of the Veil or something similar) when it didn't naturally draw more copies.

Splashing Green

I inevitably dipped into green to compensate for this weakness with Tarmogoyf and stronger sideboard options. Here are the changes I made to the mainboard, not counting manabase specifics:

-4 Goblin Guide
-1 Bedlam Reveler
-4 Thought Scour
-1 Vapor Snag
-2 Mutagenic Growth
-1 Land

+4 Tarmogoyf
+1 Snapcaster Mage
+4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
+4 Tarfire

Green also let us run Traverse the Ulvenwald, a card that perfectly complements Bedlam Reveler. Early, Traverse grabs a land to help us cast the cards in our hand. Since we run so few lands to begin with, Traverse functionally costs 0 mana in this stage---we tap one land for it, search up another, play it, and finish the turn cycle with the same amount of mana we'd have had if we hadn't cast Traverse. In this sense, Traverse is another zero-mana cantrip like Gitaxian Probe.

traverse the ulvenwaldProbe and Traverse not costing us mana makes them the best way to fill the graveyard for Bedlam Reveler. Thought Scour underwhelmed me in testing, as any copies accumulated post-"threshold" essentially taxed us mana to draw for turn. As with the Treasure Cruise decks of bygone days, Bedlam Reveler-based aggro decks tend to want all of their mana every turn, even with five or more lands in play. In Cruise decks, spare Scours would at least fuel future delve spells; here, they only slow us down.

Obviously, Traverse is bonkers in the late-game. Temur decks with multiple copies of Bedlam Reveler can easily chain Devils by Traversing for one, resolving it, drawing into either Traverse, Snapcaster Mage, or another Reveler, and repeating the card-grab the following turn.

Traverse the Ulvenwald makes it much easier to access Bedlam Reveler when we need him, turning our midrange matchups into massacres. But it didn't do much to address the UR deck's other weakness: its difficulty interacting with certain linear strategies. Failing to draw boarded-in permission against decks like Grishoalbrand meant certain doom unless we managed to race to 20, a feat complicated by turn-eaters like Phyrexian Unlife or fast mana from Simian Spirit Guide. Our wealth of cantrips also made us worse than dedicated aggro decks such as Burn in these matchups.

To be totally clear, I would not return to this deck, which I now consider unfocused. Testing has shown me that a more interactive strategy compliments Reveler better than one watered down with Lava Spikes. Adding green slows the deck down but improves its interactive capabilities, making the Spikes even more out of place. I do think Reveler has potential in a straight UR shell more slanted toward aggression, but I lack the desire to explore that shell for myself.

Becoming a Delver Deck

After a week of testing, I cut the red sorcery for actual interaction. Mainboard permission would turn this deck into a true grow strategy and potentially supplant my darling Monkey Grow. This prospect scared me at first, but now I'm learning to stop worrying and love the Bedlam Reveler.

Traverse Delver, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Bedlam Reveler
2 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Tarfire
2 Vapor Snag
1 Simic Charm
4 Disrupting Shoal
4 Remand

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
1 Cinder Glade
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Forest

Sideboard

3 Blood Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Natural State
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Roast
2 Dispel
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Feed the Clan

There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll break down the list in terms of its primary components: threats, permission, and removal. Then, we'll look at the sideboard and compare Traverse Delver to Monkey Grow.

The cantrips and manabase are relatively straightforward, so we'll leave those for another day. Much of what I have to say about Delver of Secrets, Tarmogoyf, Lightning Bolt, and other Temur Delver staples remains constant for this deck, so we'll also be skipping over those.

Threats

Bedlam Reveler: The reason to play Traverse the Ulvenwald in Temur Delver, and perhaps the reason to play Delver in Modern. Reveler is a nightmare for interactive decks and creature decks alike, refilling us on damage outputs and cheap removal at the same time. I don't like more than three since we can find him with Traverse, and a resolved Devil wastes others in hand by discarding them.

Snapcaster MageSnapcaster Mage: I started with one Snap in the deck, and moved to two when I realized I wanted to draw one naturally and have the other in the deck as a Traverse target. The second Snap may still get cut in the future, but I'm a fan right now. Having two allows us to pitch one to Disrupting Shoal without losing Snap's immense versatility later in the game. Snapcaster's main purpose in this deck is to drastically improve Traverse the Ulvenwald, turning the sorcery into either a permission spell for next turn, a bounce spell for an enemy wall, or a burn spell for lethal. Snap is also great in attrition matchups and against blue decks, but we can't run more than a couple, since he cannibalizes Bedlam Reveler. We also don't need much help against those decks.

Delver of Secrets: I'm only including a section on this little guy to mention that we frequently board him out. We can blank an interactive opponent's Lightning Bolts by removing Delvers, further putting them at a disadvantage.

Ryan Overturf pioneered the now-standard sideboard playset of Ancestral Visions in Grixis Delver, and often cut Delver for them in Game 2. We already have the Vision mained, and on a 3/4 body to boot. Swapping the easily-killable Delver of Secrets for efficient disruption like Dispel and Blood Moon makes our already-positive midrange matchups even better without costing us any sideboard slots.

Permission

Disrupting Shoal: I messed around with Spell Pierce, Mana Leak, Spell Snare, and Stubborn Denial before even trying Shoal, but the free counterspell seems like the best one for us. Even Lightning Bolt decks can struggle against the format's linear behemoths; just look to Infect and Affinity's recent success despite inhabiting a field heavy on Jund and Jeskai. Shoal allows us to get very aggressive early on against midrange while giving us extra points against these linear decks.

Disrupting ShoalSince Reveler's draw power lets us make so many land drops, Shoal's hard-cast mode always comes up by the mid-game, and gives us the same invincible feeling we get while beating down with a threat and holding Stubborn Denial or Simic Charm in Monkey Grow. Few decks can claim a hard counterspell in the late-game, and those that can don't count on that counterspell (usually Cryptic Command) doing anything in the first four turns. Conversely, Shoal interacts as of turn zero.

The main issue with other counterspells is that they're sometimes dead---some in the late-game (Leak, Pierce), some on an empty board (Denial), and others at random times (Snare). Dead cards usually end up being lost to Reveler triggers in this deck. Monkey Grow can "go Infect" on interactive decks, stockpiling Denials and Charms until it finds a Hooting Mandrills, at which point those protection spells turn on and ensure victory against opponents loading up on Path to Exiles. Bedlam Reveler doesn't allow this plan, since he throws all those cards away when he hits the field. Shoal is never dead---since mid-game Shoals counter one-, two-, three-, and sometimes four-drops, we're happy to simply pass the turn to opponents behind or even on the board until we can trade it for one of their cards, and then play Bedlam Reveler.

Remand: Like Disrupting Shoal, Remand is always live in some capacity. That doesn't mean it's always good. Against decks like Affinity and Burn, it's actively abysmal. Luckily, we already have enough game against linear aggro decks thanks to our burn suite, sideboard hosers, and Disrupting Shoal to cede a few "Leak points" with this old Twin staple.

Those linear decks we already beat can almost never play around Mana Leak, but Leaks die in a multitude of other matchups as games progress. As explained above, it's too volatile to run alongside RemandBedlam Reveler. Remand at least cycles into something else during topdeck wars, unlike more situational counterspells.

The card is also just better than Leak against a host of Modern strategies. It steals huge amounts of tempo from Tron, Valakut, and Chord, and even blows out spell synergy decks abusing Eldritch Evolution (the creature is still sacrificed) or Ad Nauseam (the Angel's Grace is still wasted). In blue mirrors, Remand is our best card, bouncing cards opponents try to counter and ruining Snapcaster Mage abilities. Remand also shines against Lingering Souls, a card that has always posed some issues for Delver players.

Monkey Grow prefers Mana Leak because it needs hard answers to cards that interrupt its gameplan. Siege Rhino, Tasigur, Tarmogoyf, and Liliana of the Veil can all stop Monkey Grow cold if they resolve, either on this turn or the next. Traverse Delver cares less about those cards, since it out-resources interactive opponents with Bedlam Reveler.

Removal

Tarfire: I've found loading up on relevant instants and sorceries far more efficient than running pure air like Thought Scour. In many matchups, playing a functional seven Bolts makes things a breeze (Infect, CoCo/Chord, Affinity, etc.). That Tarfire turns on Traverse the Ulvenwald so much faster brings the card over the edge.

Vapor Snag: One of Modern's strongest tempo cards, Snag mainly helps us push through damage. It also disrupts creature combos and saves our threats from removal (if inefficiently). It combines with Remand to severely disadvantage players with pricey threats, and nerfs cards that might otherwise hassle us like Scavenging Ooze and Threads of Disloyalty.

Vapor SnagSnag also interacts well with Bedlam Reveler, allowing us to continue drawing by bouncing our own Reveler and casting him again. Bouncing Reveler in response to a removal spell generally makes it impossible for interactive opponents to come back from the card deficit.

Simic Charm: I started with three Snags in this deck before cutting one for Simic Charm. Charm is another two-drop to pitch to Disrupting Shoal, and its other modes are relevant enough that I'm happy to have a copy in the deck. With so much draw power, having a protection effect handy isn't as crucial as it is to Monkey Grow, and Charm is a two-mana Vapor Snag in some cases. Given these faults, I wouldn't play more than one right now, especially since Snapcaster can provide us with extra Charm effects if we need them.

Sideboard

Traverse Delver's sideboard takes after Monkey Grow's in many ways, but defects in others. We'll consider the discrepancies.

No Huntmasters: The main difference is the absence of Huntmaster of the Fells. Huntmaster fulfills two roles in the Monkey Grow sideboard: he stabilizes against aggro when we take on a midrange role, and he combines with Blood Moon to give us a viable plan against dedicated midrange decks. Reveler already does both of these things in this deck, handing us more interaction against aggro and more threats against midrange.

Some colleagues have asked me if we could play one Huntmaster, which we can find with Traverse. My response is in that stage in the game, we'd almost always find a Bedlam Reveler. Additionally, drawing tap-out bombs like Huntmaster doesn't mesh with our primary gameplan of tearing through the deck with Reveler.

Anger of the GodsAnger over Pyroclasm: The sweeper package also gets an update, transitioning from Pyroclasm to Anger of the Gods. Anger is a major upgrade in decks that reliably hit RR, which is trivial in a deck accommodating Reveler. To its credit, Pyroclasm is significantly better against Affinity, where it comes down a crucial turn early to take out Springleaf Drum's operators and slow the robots down. But Anger outshines it versus Abzan Company, Zoo, and Dredge.

State over Revelry: The Revelry package plays Natural State instead of Destructive Revelry, which isn't efficient enough for what we want to be doing: killing Rest in Peace. Since State costs one less mana, it's naturally better in a deck that wants to rapidly load up the graveyard with cheap interaction and maximize mana efficiency even in grindier games. Monkey Grow didn't mind spending a little extra post-board, since it had less to do with its mana anyway, and preferred gleaning value from flashier cards.

New flex spots: Removing Huntmasters suddenly gives the Temur Delver sideboard a bunch of flex spots. I'm currently trying 2 Dispel, 2 Roast, a Feed the Clan, and a Vendilion Clique in these spots. I like them all, but time will tell which cards (if any) could better address the deck's issues as they begin to manifest themselves. Other possible options include Disdainful Stroke, Send to Sleep, and Negate.

Comparing Traverse Delver to Monkey Grow

I've cast enough Gitaxian Probes in my lifetime to guess what readers are thinking as they skim my article for decklists. Your current burning question: what does Traverse Delver have over Monkey Grow? I've kept this question in the forefront of my own mind during every game I played with the new deck, and here's what I've found.

Pros: Instead of almost always losing to BGx, we crush BGx. We also crush other midrange decks, which went either way for Monkey Grow.

rest in peaceCons: We lose Stubborn Denial (somewhat impacting our Tron and combo matchups) and are weaker to grave hate. Huntmaster of the Fells gave us a plan that totally ignored grave hate, which Traverse Delver notably lacks. Luckily, most grave hate currently played in Modern is of the Grafdigger's Cage variety. Ancient Grudge and Natural State come in from the board to address this issue by cleaning up copies of Relic of Progenitus and Rest in Peace. (Nobody plays Leyline of the Void.)

Neutral: Traverse Delver plays more reactively, as Reveler rewards us for playing this way. Unlike Monkey Grow, we can't rush out Hooting Mandrills on turn two with Denial backup, and therefore can't be as proactive. Remand also gives us a compelling reason to play more slowly against blue decks. This point is possibly a con, since Modern favors proactive decks, but we interact so well I'm not sure it's something to be concerned about.

The Start of Something New

As soon as Bedlam Reveler was spoiled, I knew Traverse Delver was the Reveler deck I was bound to play. I'm happy I finally got around to putting it together and feel I've engineered something very powerful. Barring some unforeseen revelation, I'll be playing this deck deep into the summer, and taking it to high-profile events in August. Modern Nexus will be the first to hear about Bedlam Reveler's successes and failures in my supple hands. Wish me and our hot-headed newcomer luck!

Insider: MTGO Cards to Buy, Sell or Hold – Episode 3

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Hello, investors! This week I am going to analyze a few cards requested by the readers and other relevant Standard cards to prepare for the new set release. Feedback is highly appreciated; if you want me to write about a certain card just mention it in the comments below.

Thought-Knot Seer

Thought-Knot Seer

This Eldrazi creature is a great enabler for the emerge mechanic, and I expect to see a spike during PT coverage if the deck has a good performance. I personally invested in this card and sold them last weekend even though I believe it will go up. Why did I do such nonsense? Because the card is bouncing between 7 and 8.5 tix and I expect it to return to 7 before the Pro Tour, at which point I'll rebuy it.

Thought-Knot's lack of presence at the first Star City Games Standard Open, and the wave of players selling their cards to play Eldritch Moon events on MTGO, make me believe strongly that I can pick it up again at a better price. If you can't close profitably at the current price, I recommend just holding it.

Verdict: Sell (if you're quick)

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

This planeswalker has been a staple in the most-played decks of the pre-Eldritch Moon metagame. The only way this card will rise again is if it sees as much play as before, or ends up in a fresh new deck at the Pro Tour. I'm not holding my breath on those things occurring, as we can expect the new cards to add more, not less, diversity.

I wouldn't invest in Gideon, but if I had a few copies in my collection I would only close the position if it was profitable. If not, I would keep them and try to sell at the first spike during PT coverage.

Verdict: Hold

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

Kalitas reached his highest price at the end of April when he was so crucial for countering the Nantuko Husk decks. After that he has managed to maintain a price somewhere in the middle as control decks have started to play him maindeck, and Modern decks have adopted him too.

I think the price now is just right. It would be difficult to make a profit so I don't recommend investing in Kalitas, but if you already bought in, you can hold him until the PT coverage and sell as soon as he sees a spike.

Verdict: Hold

Matter Reshaper

Matter Reshaper

This guy is pretty similar to Thought-Knot Seer; both are great with emerge and could see a huge spike during the Pro Tour. The difference between this and his Eldrazi brother is that Matter Reshaper's price isn't bouncing up and down.

The card has already risen a little because of Pro Tour speculation. In the last days it dropped a bit, and today is a great opportunity to buy at 2-ish tix.

Verdict: Buy

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

The last card for today is another planeswalker, and a great example of why reading charts is so important to MTGO finance. Sorin has a support level at 4 tix and a resistance at 5 tix. The decks that play him usually have only one or two copies, so it would be hard to break the 5 tix barrier---but during Pro Tour hype anything can happen.

The worst-case scenario I can imagine for Sorin is him just being stuck at 5 tix, which is great for a card with low spread.

Verdict: Buy

See you next week!

Insider: Standard Pickups Before Pro Tour EMN

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Pro Tour Eldritch Moon will begin in a week, and pros converging to solve the metagame means big things for the financial markets. Their decks will be widely imitated, the winners bought and the losers sold. There’s always a ton of activity surrounding Pro Tours, and there’s little time left to prepare.

It would be great to know what the pros will play in advance, but we can make some reasonable assumptions. Here are the cards I feel are undervalued as we head into the Pro Tour.

World Breaker

There was an error retrieving a chart for World Breaker

The metagame before the last Pro Tour was also dominated by Bant Company, but the metagame adapted with ways to defeat it. G/W Tokens won the event on the back of a strong Bant Company matchup, but Spell Queller is troubling. It seems as if the best way to beat Bant Company and its Reflector Mages, and now Spell Quellers, is to go over the top, way over the top.

Brad Nelson did it with his Goggles Ramp deck. Pyromancer's Goggles is hard for Bant Company to deal with, and World Breaker gives them fits, especially with reach being better than ever now that they play Selfless Spirit and Spell Queller.

It’s no surprise the deck made Top 8 of the SCG Columbus Open, and I expect it to do very well at the Pro Tour. I like picking up its pieces, especially cards that won’t rotate this fall, like World Breaker. It has potential in other decks too, like as a Traverse the Ulvenwald bullet in a Sultai deck like Ali Aintrazi’s.

Chandra, Flamecaller

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Flamecaller

Planeswalkers have always given Bant Company issues, and now planeswalkers that cost five or more will be especially valuable. Using Chandra, Flamecaller to -3 to sweep their board of everything, including Spell Queller, while leaving a planeswalker behind is an extremely potent play.

Chandra, Flamecaller has applications in a lot of different decks, and I expect it to have a big showing at the Pro Tour.

Traverse the Ulvenwald

There was an error retrieving a chart for Traverse the Ulvenwald

Traverse the Ulvenwald didn’t see much play when initially printed, but it was slowly figured out and began to appear in more and more decklists. Now Eldritch Moon puts it in the spotlight by providing more great delirium cards and the tools to support them.

Creatures define Standard, and Traverse the Ulvenwald provides access to them, including powerful situational cards that decks wouldn’t want to play many of (of which the new set has many). It finds both halves of the combo of Bruna, the Fading Light and Gisela, the Broken Blade for example, or Distended Mindbender or Ishkanah, Grafwidow, or old favorites like Dragonlord Silumgar or Dragonlord Atarka.

Traverse is already making a big mark in the new format, including two copies in Ali Aintrazi’s deck he took to second place in the Open. It’s also included in Goggles Ramp, so if that deck is played at the Pro Tour it will also drive demand upwards.

Thalia's Lancers

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Thalia's Lancers is deceptively one of the most powerful cards in the new set. Searching the library is powerful, and the fact that it finds any legendary card, not just creatures, opens up more possibilities. An automatic inclusion in any deck with Thalia’s Lancers, for example, is Geier Reach Sanitarium, which allows it to find a land à la Trinket Mage for Darksteel Citadel.

A natural combination with Thalia's Lancers is the combo of Bruna, the Fading Light and Gisela, the Broken Blade---Ronald Ritner used this concept in his W/B Control deck to top-eight the SCG Open last weekend.

Diregraf Colossus

There was an error retrieving a chart for Diregraf Colossus

It’s reasonable to assume Diregraf Colossus's $2 price tag is entirely because of its casual appeal, a necessity in any zombie-themed deck. It’s a four-of in any Standard Zombie deck, so any serious competitive play would send this price upward.

I’ve scoured for decklists using the new set, and hidden among some results from Japan was a Zombies decklist by Yuuta Takahashi, a successful Japanese deckbuilder and well-connected pro. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him or his friends playing Diregraf Colossus at the Pro Tour.

Prized Amalgam

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prized Amalgam

Eldritch Moon has provided even more tools for graveyard decks in Standard, so if there is any time for Prized Amalgam to make a mark in the format it’s now. It’s certainly a staple in Zombies, so if that deck has a breakout at the Pro Tour the price is sure to rise.

I’ve also seen the card used in various non-zombie graveyard decks, even those without the mana to cast it---so I have high hopes for the card's competitive prospects once players figure out how to use the new tools available.

This card also has a ton of playability in eternal formats like Modern, Legacy, and even Vintage. It’s awesome in any format where Narcomoeba and dredge cards are legal, and will only get better with age. I like the fact that the floor on this card is high and will keep rising.

Bygone Bishop

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The value of creatures with converted mana cost three or less is obvious when the best card in Standard is Collected Company. The consensus best deck is Bant Company, and Bygone Bishop is a possible addition that is sure to see some play this summer as players test different iterations of the deck.

It’s also a potential staple for the Spirits deck, which will persist beyond rotation and breathe new life into the card, especially as the mana of the format shifts and three-color decks become more difficult to play.

Port Town

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I’m a big fan of investing in Magic real estate, especially Standard lands as seasonal holds. Once lands in a format rotate out, in this case the Battle for Zendikar lands next year, the remaining lands immediately become sought after as replacements.

All of these Shadows over Innistrad lands will become more played and more demanded, and the prices will rise. Now they are incredibly cheap and have room to double or triple, so they are great to get in any trade or with store credit, and safe buys even above buylist price. I’m especially fond of Port Town which is used in Bant Company and Spirits, and will always have casual promise as a blue nonbasic.

Insider: Deckbuilding Theory and Identifying Pre-order Picks

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About two weeks ago I got an e-mail from QS founder Kelly Reid. Kelly had noticed that buylist prices on Sanctum of Ugin had increased, though the market price hadn't moved much. He wanted to know my thoughts on the card, and also had some thoughts on an Emerge deck that he wanted to bounce off of me.

The deck was built around consistently casting a giant emerge monster on turn four, and Kelly had taken a largely stat-driven approach to his build.

The notion was interesting, though ultimately I didn't have a lot to offer when it came to statistics, as my thoughts on deck-building are more theory-driven. The numbers all looked very good, the deck was like, 90% to deck x, y, and z by turn q, but I just didn't know what that meant beyond an abstract consistency.

My critiques of the deck just didn't have much to do with these percentages. My comments looked like this:

  • "This deck is heavy on threes, can we beat Humans?"
  • "How bad is it if they kill our two/three drop?"
  • "What do the games look like when we're not emerging?"
  • "There's a lot of overlap with Cryptolith Rites decks here, are our things better than theirs?"
There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptolith Rite

Basically, that math was neat, but my brain functions on theory. There are a lot of great mathematicians playing Magic, but I've spent my time studying philosophy. I told Kelly that I didn't have much to offer outside of theory, and he asked how I defined "theory" exactly. I hadn't previously taken the time to hammer down a definition, but I had this response for him:

"I suppose I don't have a rigid definition of theory. I generally use it when I refer to thoughts about how the game works. For example, instead of mathematically getting into setting up emerge, I start with the idea that a three-drop lets me emerge on turn four and that value three-drops make the most sense as I have to sacrifice the creature. I think about what my mana curve needs to look like to function relative to what I expect to play against and flesh things out in a way that makes sense contextually in the format and coherently within the deck.

For building the G/B Delirium deck that I posted, it seemed very important to me to have a lot of enablers among a lot of different card types. I knew that the deck couldn't win quickly, so efficiency and scalability were both very important---the deck needs to play to the table fast to not get run over but also can't win fast so it can't just have a horrible late game.

I'm more often limited by the availability of cards that are actually playable for a particular role than I am by trying to cut it down to 8-12 of a particular type of card (one-drop, removal spell, etc...).

A card that I'm considering bad until proven good on the basis of theory is Hanweir Garrison. It looks great for a red three-drop and it combos with Thalia's Lieutenant. That said, the mana for Boros aggro, especially considering that the deck wants a bunch of one-drops, is problematic.

Even the act of putting more three-drops of any kind into Humans slows the deck down and makes Reflector Mage much more of a problem. Alternatively, the new Thalia allows the deck to stay mono or mostly white, and while it can get Maged, it has significant upside against blockers in general and even will tap said Mage so that your other critters can attack on your next turn."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thalia, Heretic Cathar

From here we agreed that this would be a great topic for an article, and as such I would like to delve deeper into my card evaluation process, providing context from Eldritch Moon. The first step is to establish in very broad strokes whether or not a card is playable.

In first-blush evaluations it's better to rule too many things as good than too few, as once you think something is bad you'll find yourself ignoring it as more information pours in. You'll notice that in a lot of my spoiler articles I try to think of ways that a card could become good. A primary example of this is looking for delirium enablers in Eldritch Moon, as there's not much in the way of delirium cards that are good if delirium is difficult to enable.

Clearly most cards aren't going to see competitive play, though I try to give anything that fits into the following categories a second look:

Fits into an Existing Archetype

The one is fairly obvious, and it is way more likely when it comes to the second set in a block. There's an existing deck that is putting up numbers and it gets a new tool. Cards like this will generally be easy to identify, and will demand high pre-order prices, which makes them poor targets for pre-order speculation.

Sometimes the evolution is less obvious, and you can find something that others failed to see. Everybody knew that Spell Queller was going to slot into Bant Company, though Jack Fogle's inclusion of Elder Deep-Fiend in his build was rather innovative.

At any rate, cards that fall firmly in this camp will generally both be obvious and decline in price after pre-order season. Take Thalia, for example. Thalia pre-ordered for about $9 and is currently selling for $5-6. Hype for these cards is easy to digest, which makes it difficult to speculate on such cards.

Something that you'll see happen a lot is that a card with a glutted CMC will get spoiled and there will be hype that only ends up leading to the card's price crashing and disappointment. Hanweir Garrison, for example, looks great with Thalia's Lieutenant, but Humans isn't looking for three-drops.

Honestly, it seems to happen to three-drops more than any other mana cost. Don't get fooled by new toys that fit in on the wrong spot on the curve. The last thing that we need is a four-mana delirium enabler.

Spawns a New Archetype

These cards also have a way of generating inflated pre-order prices, but where you can profit is by identifying them earlier than others. The best way to identify these cards is by asking yourself what criteria will make the card good.

A good example from EMN is Ishkanah, Grafwidow. Ishkanah sucks when you don't have delirium on, and is a great rate when you do. Ishkanah had a significant window where it pre-ordered for $3, and if you were willing to bet that they had to make delirium easy-access by turn five then that was a very easy buy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ishkanah, Grafwidow

Ishkanah has cooled off, but it saw a window of a $10+ market price once people started believing in delirium, or rather that having delirium by turn five was reasonable.

The more obvious role players tend to be more difficult to get in on the ground floor with, and as such Grim Flayer and Liliana, the Last Hope saw a lot more hype when initially spoiled.

Grim Flayer has the feel of a pushed card, which once again makes its hype more digestible. What you want to look for is more subtle elements of new archetypes. It seemed clear that Liliana and Grim Flayer would have some kind of home, though initial prices for them were too high without the rest of the deck being convincingly fleshed out---again going back to the question, "what will make this card good?

Of course, you have to be a lot more careful when it comes to new archetypes. You have to both determine that the archetype can stand up to existing archetypes in addition to being competitive against whatever else the new set brings. First you have to pass the existing format's "tests," which for Standard means not getting run over by Humans and not being horrible against Reflector Mage. Then you have to determine whether the new set adds any tests to the format.

An interesting card from EMN is Splendid Reclamation. A Splendid Reclamation deck would presumably be great against Reflector Mage and could certainly support the requisite removal to beat Humans. It seems like the sort of card that could be built around, though ultimately the card really suffers from the existence of the obviously great Spell Queller. Sam Black had a really cool list using Reclamation that he posted, though this weakness is extremely significant. The card fails the Spell Queller test.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spell Queller

The other thing to be mindful of on this front are shells looking for a couple cards to become viable. The problem with delirium going into EMN was that the deck was missing enablers. As such, there was reason to be skeptical of cards that were only great when delirium was enabled, and alternatively there was reason to be excited about enablers.

Along these same lines, Rattlechains was a card that was just waiting for support, and as soon as great spirits started being spoiled it unsurprisingly saw a good amount of growth.

Both Fits an Existing Archetype and Spawns a New Archetype

This is the sweet spot, because even though such cards end up being hyped, demand ends up being very high. People trying to play the old deck need to update it, and people trying to build the new deck need the new cards. Simple enough. Often enough though, the community at large takes some time to recognize cards that fall into this camp.

Let's talk about Spell Queller some more. When it was first spoiled, some players were thinking "Spirits!" while others were thinking this card was going to ruin Collected Company mirrors. If memory served, the card opened at around $6, and if you were operating under the belief that you need this card to play Standard rather than "deck x" then you would be very happy to see that your copies have appreciated to $14.

I still see Elder Deep-Fiend as this kind of card, though it hasn't come to fruition just yet. As such, it should perhaps go in the following category:

Cards Somebody Smarter Than Me Will Break

The best example in recent memory of such a card is Cryptolith Rite. I wasn't about to build a great Cryptolith Rite deck, but somebody was. These are often the most difficult cards to identify, at least for me, but often enough if a card has a reasonable mana cost and an effect that looks like it could theoretically break a game open, it's worth a look.

Splendid Reclamation looked like that card from this set, though ultimately being mindful of the Spell Queller test turns me off from it at this point. A deck could still exist, in particular if it's great at killing three-toughness creatures, though I'm not going to be the one to build it.

$2 is a little steep for such speculation on a regular rare, but you get the idea. You're not going to know how everything plays out, but you can at least identify that a card like Splendid Reclamation has the potential to make an obscene amount of mana for the small investment of 3G.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splendid Reclamation

~

That's a lot to take in, but this should be good text to reference when next spoiler season rolls around.

It's tough to balance looking for cards you can see working in a specific way with cards whose role you're unsure of, but the broader your scope the better your odds of success. Speculation is all about finding things that are undervalued, and finding what is undervalued is a matter of knowing how to evaluate them properly.

As we approach Pro Tour Eldritch Moon, I'm quite confident that the set isn't figured out just yet, and while Spell Queller is the truth, I expect more cards from the set to have breakout performances. Specifically, I'm looking at Grim Flayer, Elder Deep-Fiend, and Splendid Reclamation.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive

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