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Where We’ve Been: A Study of Pro Tour Modern Decks

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Last week, I wrote an article detailing the history behind Modern’s extensive banlist, complete with Wizards' official announcements and an analysis of each. This was, by far, my most popular article to date in the almost six months that I’ve been writing for Modern Nexus. This week, I plan on approaching another Modern topic in similar style: the history of Modern’s best decks! Maybe I’m just a sucker for nostalgia and the romance of the stage, but there is something about the finals of a high-level Magic event that excites me. Maybe it’s the significant cash winnings on the line. Maybe it’s the trial by fire narrative of perseverance that comes from two players fighting through a gigantic field to square off gladiator-style. Maybe it’s the impeccable, brilliant commentary that accompanies Pro Tours.

Dig Through Time art

Whatever it is, I have an infatuation with the big lights that’s only grown since reaching it myself. With Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch coming in February, let’s take a look at where we’ve been.

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Pro Tour Philadelphia – September 2-4, 2011

Top 8 Decklists

2 Pyromancer Ascension
2 Splinter Twin
1 Mono-Red Affinity
1 Mono-Blue Infect
1 Counter Cat Zoo
1 R/G 12Post Breach

Finals – Samuele Estratti vs. Josh Utter-Leyton

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2zsHRjahl0&w=560&h=315]

*(match starts at 11:10)*

Pro Tour Philadelphia will forever be remembered as the first Modern Pro Tour showcasing all of the broken strategies Wizards “missed” in their initial banning. Focusing primarily on the Affinity enablers, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Stoneforge Mystic, and some broken combo pieces, Wizards ultimately missed Blazing Shoal and Cloudpost. Blazing Shoal combo'd with either Progenitus or Dragonstorm to one-shot opponent’s with infect damage in Sam Black’s Mono-Blue Infect, and Jesse Hampton showed the world what Cloudpost could do alongside Vesuva in a supercharged BreachPost Ramp deck that makes RG Tron look like child’s play.

On the fairer side of the table, Ponder and Preordain both had 20 copies in the Top 8 among five decks. For those counting at home, that’s 62.5% of the Top 8 playing Ponder/Preordain, (three separate archetypes) and all decks played the full four of both. Of the three decks that chose not to play the blue cantrips, two played a playset of Green Sun's Zenith, which would also see a banning after the tournament.

But enough of that. The champion and runner-up!

Splinter Twin, Samuele Estratti (1st, Pro Tour Philadelphia 2011)

Creatures

4 Deceiver Exarch
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
2 Spellskite
3 Pestermite

Sorceries

4 Ponder
4 Preordain
3 Firespout
1 Sleight of Hand

Instants

2 Pact of Negation
1 Disrupting Shoal
2 Dispel
4 Remand
1 Lightning Bolt

Enchantments

4 Splinter Twin

Land

3 Mountain
4 Cascade Bluffs
5 Island
3 Steam Vents
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Breeding Pool

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Dismember
2 Spellskite
3 Blood Moon
2 Engineered Explosives
1 Deprive
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Lightning Bolt

Oh, come on! The very first Modern Pro Tour is won by Splinter Twin, even in a field as broken as that old Wild West was?! Turns out Ponder and Preordain were just as broken as everything else, and Estratti dispatched Utter-Leyton 3-1 in an awesome finals match that saw Estratti winning twice with the combo and once with a “devastating” Blood Moon against Utter-Leyton’s board full of dual lands. I love this list, as it contains a lot of cool gems that really date it as a 2011 deck (maindeck Pact of Negation, ONE Lightning Bolt!?!) and yet we still see how much Twin has remained the same in over four years. Keep in mind that Snapcaster Mage was not yet legal (as Innistrad would release later that month). When we factor in the changes that Snapcaster Mage and the Ponder/Preordain banning had on this deck, we see that not much else has changed since. Go ahead and throw some Pact of Negation in your maindeck likes its 1999! (fine, 2011).

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Gaddock Teeg
4 Knight of the Reliquary

Sorceries

4 Green Sun's Zenith

Planeswalkers

2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
3 Lightning Helix
3 Bant Charm

Lands

2 Marsh Flats
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Arid Mesa
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Temple Garden
1 Steam Vents
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Plains

Sideboard

2 Gideon Jura
1 Qasali Pridemage
3 Aven Mindcensor
3 Flashfreeze
3 Unified Will
1 Rule of Law
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Tectonic Edge

This deck just looks so gross. A big Naya Zoo deck that splashes blue for Bant Charm and six more counterspells in the board?! Clearly this deck existed before Affinity and Burn showed up to crash the party, as that manabase looks so painful. Counter-Cat was designed as a hard-hitting aggro deck that could present a fast clock and then sit back with counterspells against a field full of combo. The added benefit of playing 11 removal spells helped it rise above all the other aggro decks in the field (and above Infect). This deck couldn’t really compete after the banning of Green Sun's Zenith, but I think its spirit lives on in the form of both Knightfall and Naya Company.

Pro Tour Return to Ravnica (Seattle, USA) – October 19-21, 2012

Top 8 Decklists

3 Jund
1 Affinity
1 Eggs
1 Scapeshift
1 Infect
1 Jeskai Geist

Finals – Stanislav Cifka vs. Yuuya Watanabe

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZDaM4VpSBk&w=560&h=315]

With Wild Nacatl banned after Worlds 2011, 2012 saw the rise of Jund as Deathrite Shaman and Bloodbraid Elf overpowered everything else in the format. The Top 8 of Pro Tour RTR saw three Jund decks demolishing the field, denying Splinter Twin even a single slot in the Top 8. Jund was truly the “best deck” of 2012, but for the Pro Tour, Stanislav Cifka had other ideas…

"Eggs, Stanislav Cifka (1st, Pro Tour Return to Ravnica 2012)"

Sorceries

4 Second Sunrise
4 Faith's Reward
4 Serum Visions
3 Sleight of Hand
1 Gitaxian Probe

Artifacts

4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Conjurer's Bauble
4 Elsewhere Flask
4 Lotus Bloom
4 Reshape
1 Pyrite Spellbomb

Instants

2 Silence

Lands

4 Ghost Quarter
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Plains
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
7 Island

Sideboard

2 Silence
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Pithing Needle
4 Echoing Truth
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Grapeshot

Either you love this deck or hate it: it’s not close. Yuuya Watanabe definitely did not enjoy it, as he famously fiddled with dice for most of the match as Cifka combo’ed off, sighing all the way. Eggs abused the power of Second Sunrise and Faith's Reward alongside Reshape for Lotus Bloom to burn through its deck in a flurry of non-interaction, eventually killing with a recycled Pyrite Spellbomb or Grapeshot out of the sideboard. While Second Sunrise would eventually be banned, Cifka showed the world the unrealized power of Eggs as he went 15-1 through the Swiss, and 3-0 in the Top 8, with one of the most intricate, perfectly built puzzles I have ever seen. To this day, I can’t get over the playset of Silence (one of my favorite “gotcha” cards ever) and Leyline of Sanctity between the maindeck and board. I can appreciate a deck that embraces what it is, and Eggs pushed the limit of solitaire in Magic and made for an oft-maligned but nevertheless memorable experience.

"Jund, Yuuya Watanabe (2nd, Pro Tour Return to Ravnica 2011)"

Creatures

4 Deathrite Shaman
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant
3 Kitchen Finks
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Victim of Night
1 Abrupt Decay

Sorceries

3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Lands

4 Treetop Village
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Marsh Flats
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Twilight Mire
1 Stomping Ground
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
2 Swamp
1 Forest

Sideboard

2 Batterskull
3 Slaughter Games
2 Pyroclasm
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Olivia Voldaren
1 Jund Charm
1 Abrupt Decay

The pinnacle of Jund in its Bloodbraid Elf days, Yuuya Watanabe brought to battle a primarily B/G deck that only lightly splashed red for Bloodbraid and Lightning Bolt. Instead, Yuuya found a way to play a full playset of Treetop Village (over the now universally adopted Raging Ravine). Deathrite Shaman is partially to blame for this, as it demanded B/G mana to activate abilities, yet could also be used to provide red mana itself or that crucial second black.

Pro Tour Born of the Gods (Valencia, Spain) – February 21-23, 2014

Top 8 Decklists

1 Melira Pod
1 Affinity
1 Storm
1 Tarmo-Twin
1 Jeskai Control
1 U/R Twin
1 Blue Moon
1 Jeskai Twin

Finals – Shaun McLaren vs. Jacob Wilson

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsoXl1_SC5Y&w=560&h=315]

This tournament featured so many amazing storylines. Whether Patrick Dickmann’s innovative Tarmo-Twin deck, the Chinese-born Blue Moon, or the eight different archetypes in the Top 8, I highly suggest going back and watching coverage of this tournament for anyone that missed it or has a Saturday to spare.

"Jeskai Control, Shaun McLaren (1st, Pro Tour Born of the Gods 2014)"

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique

Instants

2 Sphinx's Revelation
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare
2 Remand
4 Mana Leak
4 Lightning Helix
3 Electrolyze
3 Cryptic Command

Sorceries

1 Anger of the Gods

Planeswalkers

2 Ajani Vengeant

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Tectonic Edge
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Arid Mesa
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Steam Vents
1 Sacred Foundry
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains

Sideboard

1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Stony Silence
1 Counterflux
1 Timely Reinforcements
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Threads of Disloyalty
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Celestial Purge
1 Logic Knot
1 Wear // Tear
2 Porphyry Nodes

This finals is in my Top 5 of favorite all-time matches. Not only does it feature Shaun McLaren (one of my favorite pro players) and Jeskai Control (a deck I’ve wanted to succeed for a long time), it features the titan of 2013 Magic (Melira Pod) vs. a deck designed to beat it (Jeskai Control). Plus, LSV coverage:

“You’re not a kind person, are you?” – Rich Hagon
“I’m a kind of person.” – LSV

While Jund Midrange would eventually return to punish control decks relying on Sphinx's Revelation, Thoughtseize was relatively absent from the late rounds of this event, allowing Shaun to bury opponents in card advantage and inevitability on the way to the championship. This is an excellent example of the stars aligning for arguably the most proficient player in an archetype bringing the best version of his pet deck to an event and just running the tables (and yes, Cifka’s Eggs comes close as well).

"Melira Pod, Jacob Wilson (2nd, Pro Tour Born of the Gods 2014)"

Artifacts

4 Birthing Pod

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
3 Noble Hierarch
2 Wall of Roots
2 Voice of Resurgence
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Spellskite
1 Eternal Witness
4 Kitchen Finks
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Ranger of Eos
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
2 Murderous Redcap
1 Shriekmaw
1 Reveillark
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
1 Viscera Seer

Instants

2 Abrupt Decay
3 Chord of Calling

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Godless Shrine
1 Temple Garden
3 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Woodland Cemetery
3 Razorverge Thicket
3 Gavony Township

Sideboard

1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Sin Collector
1 Entomber Exarch
2 Path to Exile
2 Slaughter Pact
4 Thoughtseize
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Harmonic Sliver
1 Kataki, War's Wage
1 Voice of Resurgence

For those unfamiliar with Birthing Pod, Jacob Wilson’s version was perfect for the time. A literal combo deck that just did crazy unfair things every time it cast Birthing Pod, Melira Pod could beat down, threaten a combo kill, or disrupt opponents with “prison” style toolbox creatures. The worst thing about this deck was that it could often smoothly do all three at the same time. While I had just built this deck a month or two before its eventual banning, I was able to play with the deck a few times and its hard to describe the feeling of untapping with Birthing Pod, a board full of creatures, and infinite options.

Pro Tour Fate Reforged (Washington, DC) – February 6-8, 2015

Top 8 Decklists

2 Burn
3 Abzan
2 U/R Twin
1 Amulet Bloom

This event, as the Top 8 shows, was the Twin vs. Abzan show, and in my opinion relatively boring. Justin Cohen was the lone bright spot in the Top 8, bringing to battle a rogue Amulet Bloom deck that had been floating around on the internet for a while before the event. Seeing two copies of Burn in the Top 8 was definitely interesting, as it demolished the perception that pro players wouldn’t play a “deck like that”.

Finals – Justin Cohen vs. Antonio Del Moral Leon

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgqM0voH1PA&w=560&h=315]

"U/R Twin, Antonio Del Moral Leon (1st, Pro Tour Fate Reforged 2015)"

Enchantments

4 Splinter Twin

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Vendilion Clique
4 Deceiver Exarch
2 Pestermite

Instants

1 Peek
1 Dispel
2 Electrolyze
2 Spell Snare
2 Cryptic Command
4 Remand
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
1 Flame Slash

Land

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Sulfur Falls
1 Stomping Ground
3 Steam Vents
1 Desolate Lighthouse
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Mountain
5 Island

Sideboard

1 Dispel
1 Flame Slash
2 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Blood Moon
2 Spellskite
1 Negate
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Pyroclasm
1 Threads of Disloyalty
1 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Shatterstorm
1 Anger of the Gods

The circle is now complete. Twin won the first Pro Tour and, in the hands of Antonio del Moral Leon, Splinter Twin is now the reigning Modern Pro Tour archetype champion (at least until Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch in February). This list looks almost completely current, though we do see a dated Flame Slash that has now become unplayable thanks to delve creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

"Amulet Bloom, Justin Cohen (2nd, Pro Tour Fate Reforged 2015)"

Artifacts

4 Amulet of Vigor

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Summer Bloom

Creatures

4 Primeval Titan
2 Azusa, Lost but Seeking
1 Simian Spirit Guide

Instants

4 Summoner's Pact
2 Pact of Negation
1 Slaughter Pact

Enchantments

3 Hive Mind

Lands

1 Khalni Garden
1 Vésuva
1 Slayers' Stronghold
1 Boros Garrison
1 Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion
1 Radiant Fountain
1 Tendo Ice Bridge
1 Mana Confluence
1 Forest
1 Golgari Rot Farm
1 Selesnya Sanctuary
4 Gemstone Mine
3 Tolaria West
3 Gruul Turf
4 Simic Growth Chamber
2 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Thragtusk
1 Hornet Queen
2 Firespout
1 Pyroclasm
1 Nature's Claim
1 Seal of Primordium
1 Swan Song
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Wurmcoil Engine

And here we are at last! The hottest thing on the block in Modern, Amulet Bloom has had everyone talking about the deck non-stop since its explosive emergence in the hands of Justin Cohen.  Not much has changed since this version of the deck first appeared, primarily because the maindeck is very tight, but we do see more Swan Song and Seal of Primordium in the sideboard now that we didn’t see back then. Check out Michael Sigrist's 9th place Bloom finish at Grand Prix Pittsburgh for a comparison!

Conclusion

So there we have it, the first and second place lists of every Modern Pro Tour since the format’s inception in 2011. While there are many other amazing decks worthy of discussion we didn’t get to (Blue Moon, Tarmo Twin, the evolution of Affinity) these eight decks tell an interesting narrative of the evolution of the format on the world’s biggest stage. What do you think? Do you have a favorite Pro Tour deck? Let me know in the comments! Thanks for reading and I’ll see you next week

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

The Easiest Way to Cash the Pro Tour

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If this turns out to be true, this will easily be the greatest thing that I've ever seen on Reddit. User jobs141910 is offering 90.5 BTC (valued at over $37,000) for one player qualified for the next Modern PT to play a deck centered around the card Seance.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seance

The user is not disclosing their motivation for this bizarre offer, though when you think about the numbers for any amount of time it's clear that this is not somebody trying to raise the price of Seance for personal gain, as this method is both not guaranteed to change the price of the card and would require selling many thousands of copies to recoup the value of the BTC paid out.

Using Escrow for the transfer of funds is a non-negotiable factor for the offer. This looks to be some kind of wacky social experiment, and I'm really hoping that somebody bites.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: Buylisting Tips & the TCG Player Championship

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With Wizards constantly changing things like set rotation, the way promotional cards work, and what type of products they release, there are plenty of opportunities to make money. Identifying these opportunities is a skill in and of itself, and much of the writing on Magic finance focuses on this dimension, for good reason.

Recently I've been thinking more about the other side of the coin, how to turn your cards back into cash. There are many ways you might acquire cards, whether through trading, purchasing to speculate, or buying a collection. However you ended up with them, the way you sell them is important.

Buylisting is the fastest and easiest way to cash out. Today I'll talk a little about my process, and some basic things I do to try to maximize the output.

The first thing I do is to categorize the cards I have to sell. These are the groups I usually sort everything into:

High Priority

First up, we have the cards worth actual money. If you bought a collection, these are the obviously valuable cards you'll pull out on the first pass. Many speculation targets that you've decided to sell will fall in this category. There also might be trade targets or random cards from your own collection.

Low Priority

Next we have the cards that are above bulk but not very valuable. Many of your $2 and $3 cards will be pulled in the first pass, but some will also end up here as well. Usually when I'm sorting cards, I make a pile of cards that I need to look up. Most of the time, they fall into this category.

Commons & Uncommons

After I've sorted all the rares and mythics, I turn to the commons and uncommons. Depending on the collection you acquired, you might have done this already in the earlier stages.

There are lots of articles out there about which cards to look out for, but a general rule I like to follow is to pull any card that sees play in a competitive format. Those are the cards dealers will generally buy off of you. That is certainly not the only factor but it’s a good starting point.

Bulk

After sorting out the categories above, you'll be left with bulk. These can be difficult to work with, but dealers will always buy your stack of bulk rares, and most will buy common and uncommon bulk by the thousands.

Generally, I like to amass lots of these types of cards and then move them all at once. I’m that guy bringing a dolly into a major event with all my bulk to move. Now that I have a store to work with I find this less necessary, but I still do it from time to time.

Choosing a Vendor

I’ve been writing a lot on this topic the past couple weeks, but let me summarize my thoughts. The first thing to do is determine which dealers will give you the best deal based on what you're selling. If you're moving high-profile Legacy staples, you probably want to go to someone different than if you were selling promo foils.

Learning which dealers are most interested in what comes from experience, but you can always talk to other players or just go to each dealer and check their prices.

If you want to save time and not deal with multiple vendors, then decide which one will give you the best prices overall. I’ve found that most vendors average out to a similar amount, but base your decision on what you're moving.

Don’t be afraid to deal with multiple vendors though. There haven't been many times I stopped my selling escapades after the first dealer. The best place to move cards is somewhere like a Grand Prix or the TCG Player Max Point Championship, where many dealers will be set up. Usually I hit up at least three different places.

By selling to multiple vendors, you are leveraging the cards you have available. Just because the first two vendors didn’t want to purchase something from you, that doesn’t mean those cards are worthless. All it means is that those two dealers didn’t need what you were offering. Also, your willingness to visit multiple booths will give you power to say no to offers that don't match your expectations.

I want to emphasize the final stage of my process described above, sorting commons and uncommons. Sorting these cards is commonly referred to as sorting bulk or picking bulk. This skill is not to be underestimated.

Plenty of nonrares are worth money at the dealer booths. Qasali Pridemage and Slippery Bogle are two great examples of cards I moved this past weekend, but there are tons more. Taking the time to do this will make you lots of money you'd otherwise miss out on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Qasali Pridemage

The past weekend I moved some random foils and spec targets, but mostly cards I picked from bulk that I had left to the side and forgotten about. I made almost as much money on the sorted bulk as I did on my eleven Goblin Guides and my Tarmogoyf.

Speaking of Tarmogoyf, it’s trending down right now. Most buy prices are below $100 and many sell prices are around $140. Goblin Guide, for its part, is stable at its current price point around $25.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

The main point of this article is to highlight the importance of all types of cards you can sell. Sometimes you need to move 60 Tron lands while other times you move more prominent staples. Don’t be afraid to let a dealer make quarter or fifty cent piles. Those cards add up.

TCG Player Max Point Championship

Formerly this event was called the Invitational and it was an amazing multi-format event. While I loved the old Standard-Modern split, the new incarnation is still the best value tournament of the season.

Here’s the breakdown. If you go 5-2, that puts you into Day 2 of the event and you win a minimum of $200. That means if you have lots of points for two byes, you only need a record of 3-2 to make the cut.

For a high-value tournament, that's not a terribly difficult feat to achieve unless you're running bad. Let me tell you a little about my losing streak. I promise to not be too negative and focus on things we can learn from my experience.

Just as a reminder, I played the 75 from my article last week. Check it out for more info on the B/W Aggro list, as well as some pointers.

Rounds 1 & 2 - Bye

Round 3 - Abzan Aggro (Draw)

Even though this was the first round I played on the day, it was likely the best match. Game one I came out the gates quickly and curved out. He had an awkward draw with too many three- and four-cost spells, as Abzan Aggro is prone to getting sometimes, and I beat him easily.

Game two was very close but I chose not to play around the Dromoka's Command I thought he was bluffing, and he turned out to have it. The line I took involved attacking with Drana, Liberator of Malakir and 1/1 thopter tokens, to put him on a two-turn clock. It ended in disaster when Drana was no longer in the picture.

Game three was amazing as well. We both battled each other with Sorin, Solemn Visitor, but since I drew mine after dealing with his I was ahead. When time was called I had four 1/1 thopters and he had no threats other than Shambling Vent.

Starting out my tournament with a draw was not how I envisioned it, especially since it looked like all I needed was another turn or two to close the game.

Round 4 - B/W Enchantment Control (Loss)

My luck lately has forced me up against direct counters to my list. In this case, I had to fight against Silkwrap, Stasis Snare, Languish and Planar Outburst, alongside Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

Even though this is a tough matchup, it was largely determined by variance. Game one I mulliganed to four, and game two I couldn't find a third land, leading to swift defeat. It would have been interesting to see whether I could beat this matchup if I had drawn normal hands, but I’ll never know.

Round 5 - G/u Eldrazi Ramp (Win)

Sometimes you just need a confidence booster. After winning game one on turn four, my confidence was definitely boosted. I think even a slower draw would have led to victory because my opponent only drew one ramp spell and that wasn’t going to cut it against any type of aggressive pressure.

Game two wasn’t much better for him. I boarded up to four Duress to cut his hand down and with no ramping, it didn’t end any differently than the first game.

Round 6 - Jeskai Black (Win)

Having good matchups against both Abzan and Jeskai is a great place to be in the meta right now. That’s why despite not doing that well, I still love this deck.

One of the key features about this particular list was that he included Thunderbreak Regent and Draconic Roar. Those in combination with Soulfire Grand Master are a potent combination.

It was that assortment of cards that allowed my opponent to gain scads of life in game two and get far out of reach. Games one and three, however, I had an aggressive assault backed up by a couple removal spells and my opponent couldn’t thwart my onslaught.

Round 7 - Rally (Loss)

Ending your day against a professional Magic player like Jon Stern is no cake walk. Nevertheless, I was excited to meet and play against him. I didn’t think these newer versions of Rally were a bad matchup for me, but this match was an eye opener.

Game one was great and I felt in control for many turns. I kept a solid opener, a change of pace from most of the rest of the event, and put a lot of early pressure on him. The problem was that I didn’t draw any good follow-up plays, just a lot of lands.

Even so, I had him down to three life with lethal in the air the following turn. His Collected Company was his only hope and he found the tools he needed. With a Zulaport Cutthroat on board, all he needed was a Nantuko Husk to stabilize. He hit one and I couldn’t keep the pressure on with my plethora of lands.

Game two would have been perfect except for one minor miscalculation on my part. With an opening hand of two Hallowed Moonlight, I felt I should sculpt my game plan around defense rather than offense. Things were going according to plan, and even though I didn’t have removal for his Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, I felt good about the game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hallowed Moonlight

When my Duress saw his hand and took the Collected Company, I felt even better. Unfortunately I didn’t consider how the discard would put the forth card in his graveyard, allowing him to flip Jace and flash back Company. This all hinged on him top-decking a land, but it’s still something that I should have considered.

Of course he draws the land and my play of Chief of the Edge ends up cutting me deeply as he flashes back CoCo and my double Hallowed Moonlights sit idly in my hand.

From there, I was very behind. I still had a chance if I ripped another white source to start casting the removal in my hand, but it wasn't to be.

Shaking It Off

This tournament was not for me to win. At every turn, I didn’t have the right amount of lands and was forced to mulligan my way out of some games. Not making the second day weighed on me for a bit, but I pushed through it. My deck was great and well positioned in the field. Some other players like Sam Black were playing different versions of the same deck I piloted and they did quite well.

Unlucky draws happen to everyone, that’s just part of the game. What happens after those tournaments determines whether the next tournament will follow suit. Keep your head up and keep battling. If you made mistakes (and you likely did), think through them and keep learning.

For me, the line I took in game two of the final round was wrong. It relied on me drawing white mana, which never happened. I needed to present the best game plan I could with the resources I was given instead of relying on possible resources in the future.

Sure, if I had drawn the necessary land, I would have been in a great position, but I needed to plan for that not happening as well. Playing to your outs is one thing. Sculpting your game plan the wrong way is a different thing altogether.

And remember, when your tournament doesn’t go as planned, use some Magic finance and make some money. Every trip is better when you come home with more money than when you left. So, play tight and don’t let your losses keep you from another type of victory.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

[MTGO] 1 Year, 100 Tix – November Report

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Here we are in November with the last regular report of the "100 Tix, 1 Year" project. In December's report I'll conclude with some general thoughts on the project as a whole, and likely follow that up with a few other articles to dig deeper in the data we've accumulated this year.

Thank you for following the adventure this far. After eleven months I'm glad to report the account is still progressing. November finally broke the sluggish trend we saw in September and October.

Today, let's review what happened this past month and discuss what December might look like as I close the project out.

More information about the "1 Year, 100 Tix" project can be found here:

November by the Numbers

November saw a bump of 18% in the bankroll, due to several factors. These included a stabilization of Standard prices, a clear rise in almost all the Modern positions and few profitable short-term flips.

Here's the graph of the "100 Tix, 1 Year" account as it has evolved since January. The account is now valued at 568.3 tix.

100TYbank

Summary of the Specs

There was a lot of movement in November. I bought and sold many short-term specs over this period, which don't appear in the head shot of the account from November 31st.

What you can see is I've been selling some of the specs I was holding for a while. If you follow me on Twitter you know I didn't make any tix on these latter specs.

November was the month I started selling positions I had no hope of realizing a good profit on. Whether they were losers or slight winners, it was time to get some tix back for the end of the project.

At this point in time, all my decisions are being made with the deadline of December 31st in mind, so they may diverge from what I'd recommend for other investors.

In the losers category, I notably sold Dragon Whisperer, Yavimaya Coast, Ghastly Conscription and Ojutai's Command. I estimated I could not get anything more out of these positions in the remaining weeks and decided to cut my losses.

Fortunately, I also sold some positions in November with a decent profit, such as Warden of the First Tree, Starfield of Nyx, Obstinate Baloth and Night's Whisper.

Modern and Pauper were strong in November. With my intention to focus only on the very short term, I made some profitable flips over just a couple of days. Positions in this category included Olivia Voldaren, Woodland Cemetery, Mental Note, Detention Sphere, Tectonic Break and Slippery Bogle.

I also added a few Modern positions with the expectation of generating extra tix over the next few weeks. Modern prices are really pushing hard at the end of 2015, and I'll try to wait as long as possible to get the most out of the account's Modern specs.

Wrapping Up the Project

Below you can see the progress made by the account over the last year. In eleven months I went from the picture on the left to the picture on the right.

In the three weeks that I have left, everything on the account has to be converted to tix and tix only.

In terms of performance, December is very likely to be flat, slightly up at best. There's little wiggle room for my remaining positions. Standard positions should see little movement, if any. The one way I might add a few tix before Christmas is by riding the upward trend of Modern.

Overall, I expect to close the project with a final bankroll slightly under the 600 tix bar. I would be very satisfied with that number and will only regret the poor performance of my Magic Origins (ORI) positions. Outside of this project I'm holding onto all of my ORI specs---there are still several months to go with ORI in Standard to see a change in trend, especially once KTK and FRF rotate.

As I'm writing these lines I have about 7 tix spread among all of the MtgoLibrary bots I used. I will surely do my best the scrap any fractional credits and maybe salvage 3 to 4 tix. I have another 2 tix or so on other bot chains, including GoatBots, MtgoTraders, Clanteam and DojoTrade.

In the concluding article in January we'll also announce the winner of the one-year contest, so stay tuned!

Finally, it's always interesting to look back at the data accumulated during a project like this one. What went right? What went wrong? How much did we make on which specs, and why were some more profitable than others?

Analyzing what happened during these twelve months is sure to be of value to speculators, including myself, as we work to refine strategies for the following year. I'll try to put together a couple articles on that topic later in January or February.

 

Thank you for reading and following,

Sylvain Lehoux

Scrap Savant – Results for Deck #3

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The results are in! Thanks to everyone for your participation in another interesting Scrap Savant deck. Let's review the polling:

CLOSED_Results3

Looks like a pretty clear winner in Myth Realized. So, per the polls we will be constructing a deck around this card, and making the building parameters two colors.

White's obviously our first color. As for the second, Myth Realized is powerful and flexible enough to pair with basically any other color. Similar to our previous decklist, "Zada's Disciples," we will again focus on including as many noncreature spells as we can get away with.

Building with Bulk

Interestingly, Myth Realized is actually getting some fringe attention in Standard right now. If you watched the TCGPlayer 50k, or looked at some recent MTGO Dailies, you saw some successful black-white lists utilizing the card.

While we could do the same thing, we want to try something at least a little different. That's what Scrap Savant is all about, making Magic affordable, creating viable decks out of nothing, and trying new cards.

So let's look at some blue, red and green cards within our building parameters that might pair well with Myth Realized.

Blue

Red

Green

Looking through these cards, I feel green is the best option. You could obviously take it in many different directions, but with a restricted budget I think green gives us the strongest chance to build a viable deck.

Here's a sample list so far:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Herald of the Pantheon
2 Blight Herder

Spells

4 Myth Realized
4 From Beyond
4 Silkwrap
4 Stasis Snare
2 Suppression Bonds
2 Planar Outburst
2 Sigil of the Empty Throne
3 Retreat to Emeria
2 Retreat to Kazandu
3 Valorous Stance

Lands

4 Blossoming Sands
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Forest
12 Plains

As always, changes may be made before we hit the MTGO queues, but I think we have a solid foundation here. We get to utilize some really strong cards, all things considered. Pairing Myth Realized with Herald of the Pantheon seems promising, and I was hoping to use Herald in this series anyway! Now we get to do that.

I also like the cute interaction we get with From Beyond by sneaking in a few Eldrazi. With a bigger budget, we would ideally be tutoring for an Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. Alas, we have to settle for Blight Herder.

~

Well, that's it for this update. Stay tuned for the YouTube videos later in the week. We'll see how the deck fares on MTGO.

As always I'm looking forward to everyone's input. I really enjoy doing this series, and I hope it helps everyone out there.

If you haven't before, please keep hitting the polls, and take the time to subscribe/comment/etc., either here on QS or on the YouTube channel.

See you all soon!

-Chaz @ChazVMTG

Modern Metagame Breakdown: 11/1 – 11/30

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I'm getting spoiled with all this Modern event data. November brought us the Regional Pro Tour Qualifier circuit, nonstop StarCityGames Qualifiers, and a massive North American Grand Prix in Pittsburgh. Those data-Scrooges at Wizards even started releasing MTGO League decklists! Between crunching those numbers, speculating about the new Grand Prix promo card, and sitting back to watch the Pittsburgh action, it's been a fun month for Modern and an exciting time for the Modern metagame. Today, we're going to dive into November's data to see what changed from our October breakdown and where we are headed in December.

Hive Mind Art

January is approaching, which means Oath of the Gatewatch spoiler season, innovations and testing before a Pro Tour, and a banlist announcement on January 18. Cue the groans and salt. If you're like me, you're probably (definitely) tired of every single Modern article speculating about the upcoming announcement. There's more than enough Modern content to keep articles on the format itself and not opine on everyone's personal (often unsupported) vision of the banlist. This paragraph is the last time I'm even going to mull that announcement over today. There are ample Modern events in December and January before the 18th and we need to keep our eye on the metagame during that time. Besides, without a clear understanding of the format, it's impossible to critically weigh-in on banlist issues.

With that in mind, let's ban the banlist talk for the rest of the day and dive right into the dynamic and evolving Modern metagame we enjoyed throughout November. I promise we'll do plenty of banlist talk in January!

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Tier 1 Decks

As I talked about earlier last month, the RPTQ scene was a winner's metagame of skilled players who already prevailed in previous tournaments. Coupled with the GP Pittsburgh data, this has narrowed the tier 1 field relative to October, where it was much more open. We're currently tracking only five decks in November's tier 1, down from nine in October. The RPTQs had a big influence here: with stakes and player-skill high, we were more likely to see tiered contenders and not upstart weirdos. This makes the tier 1 decks we do have even more important, because it suggests a level of staying power other comers-and-goers might lack.

Data-wise, it's been a good month for metagame analysis. In light of Wizards' decision to release League data to the masses, even if just a small sample, our Top Decks dataset has the highest event N we've had in months. November saw about 100 paper events, which is right on track with October's 107 and September's 103. By contrast, MTGO numbers are way up from previous months: roughly 50 events with over 350 decks, as compared with the 30 or so events and 200ish monthly decks since the Daily switch. We're still going to apply our weighting to MTGO numbers when calculating metagame-wide shares (a value derived by comparing the current number of MTGO decks with the number of decks during the MTGO heyday earlier this year), but that variable is less severe now than it was in October.

Based on this, here are the tier 1 decks for November. As usual, these are the decks you can expect to see at tournaments, strategies you must prepare for and test against if you are to enjoy success. Although these are prevalence-based metrics, their shares are suggestive of high performance levels: you'll have a great shot at the top if you sling one of these Modern mainstays.

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Affinity8.6%8.2%8.3%9%
Burn8%7.7%9.2%7.1%
Jund7.7%4.8%8%8.6%
RG Tron6.2%5.1%6.5%6.2%
UR Twin5.5%4.8%5.7%5.7%
Amulet Bloom5.2%8.5%3.9%5.1%

With one upstart exception, this is familiar Modern territory. Jund, Twin, Affinity, and Burn all stick around as format pillars. For its part, RG Tron keeps a hold on tier 1, something that should surprise no one given the combined levels of Jund, Abzan, and fair Grixis decks floating around Modern these days. The only anomaly (or maybe not, depending on your faith in the deck) is the continued tier 1 presence of Amulet Bloom. The combo/ramp hybrid posted impressive November numbers despite being on the radar of many players and its supposed vulnerability to hate.

We'll talk more about those individual decks soon, but first let's look at their trajectories over the past few months. Some of these fluctuations are well within expected variance. Others are more pronounced.

Deck nameMeta% change
(Oct. to Nov.)
Meta%
(11/1-11/30)
Meta%
(10/1-10/31)
Meta%
(9/1-9/30)
Meta%
(8/1-8/31)
Affinity-.7%8.6%9.3%11%6.9%
Burn+.2%8%7.8%7.5%8.7%
Jund-1%7.7%8.7%7.9%7.3%
RG Tron+.7%6.2%5.5%5.1%3.5%
UR Twin+1%5.5%4.5%3.4%3.5%
Amulet Bloom+1.2%5.2%4.1%3.7%1.7%

Thinking through high-level format trends, Burn, Affinity, and Jund have all wobbled around since August. This is expected behavior for established Modern decks: they will naturally ebb and flow depending on other builds in the metagame. By contrast, RG Tron and Amulet Bloom have enjoyed consistent upward mobility from summer until today. These decks aren't necessarily format pillars (less so with the eternal RG Tron), but they are quickly making a name for themselves as tier 1 regulars to be respected. As for Twin, UR Twin's share reflects the overall URx Twin picture, with a summertime downtick getting reversed in the fall.

Following from this, here are the big tier 1 narratives to keep in mind when reflecting on November and looking ahead to December.

  • URx Twin stays on top at 11.8%
    Deceiver ExarchTraditional UR Twin is the only discrete Twin representative in tier 1, but the URx Twin collective remains the biggest player in Modern. Alex Bianchi even added Jeskai Twin to the list of usual suspects, making a strong case for its viability in GP Pittsburgh. URx Twin strategies currently make up 11.8% of the format, with UR Twin leading at 5.5%, Grixis right behind at 4.2%, and Temur plus Jeskai rounding it out at 1.4% and .7% respectively. That's an exceedingly healthy combined share for a top-tier deck. We've seen Affinity, Jund, Abzan, and Burn at similar levels this year alone. Twin's November presence regulated troublesome linear decks like Affinity and Infect, and you'll need to expect lots of Twin if you plan on sleeving up for Modern before 2015 closes. Twin's persistence also suggests the deck remains an excellent choice if you aren't sure what to play, with all variants enjoying comparable viability.
  • Jund endures
    Despite dropping 1% from October to November, Jund remains a strong Modern contender and the preferred color pairing for BGx mages. I'm more hesitant to combine the BGx variants than I am to merge Lightning BoltTwin ones (the difference between Bolt/Kolaghan's Command and Path/Rhino is massive), but between Jund (7.7%) and Abzan (3.9%), BGx Midrange sits right behind Twin at a net 11.6% share. Jund remains the BGx strategy of choice due largely to Lightning Bolt's power against all those aggro decks across the Zoo and Burn spectrum. Path to Exile is not what anyone wants to be doing against turn one Wild Nacatl. Jund also has access to both Blood Moon and conventional Fulminator Mage-style land removal, another edge over Abzan in a ramp-centric metagame (see Tron and Bloom below). If you're playing Modern in December, expect to see Jund wrecking synergy-based strategies and setting the bar for grindy midrange. Jund players: know your metagame before configuring your 75! Bad choices will leave you unprepared for Modern's deep tier 2.
  • The linear shift from creatures to ramp
    From October to November, linear decks shifted from the creature-based Infect, Merfolk, and Affinity to ramp strategies like RG Tron and Amulet Bloom. Those big-mana decks saw a combined 1.9% jump from the October period to November. At the same time, Infect, Merfolk, Ancient Stirringsand Affinity saw a collective 2.4% drop. Although it's hard to prove players consciously changed decks, the numbers and the overall metagame narrative are very suggestive. Tron and Bloom are excellent against Jund, which was perceived as a major policing force throughout the month. Although both decks struggle against Twin, so too did some of the decks whose shares they stole (Affinity and Infect). At least with the ramp decks, you're blanking all the removal players were so keen to include after October's uptick in Zoo-style decks. Merfolk is more of a mystery: the deck should be going crazy in a Twin and Jund-heavy metagame. Perhaps the Merfolk players were worried about their chances against the remaining tier 2 creature-based decks? Merfolk's own decline was the smallest of the group at only -.4%, so my guess is that this is just a temporary downshift. It's up to you to play into this switch and prepare accordingly, balancing a healthy fear of ramp decks with a respect for the remaining creature-based contenders. Also, don't forget Burn. The Nacatl and no-Nacatl versions picked up a .2% scrap from the declining decks and remains a serious powerhouse in Modern.
  • Amulet Bloom sticks around
    This is the first metagame update since we started our website where Bloom has been tier 1 in two consecutive months. Some players missed this movement because they were Hive Mindtoo focused on Top 8s and not on more holistic metagame data. Michael Sigrist and Allison Nakazora Abe barely missed the Top 8s on breakers at Pittsburgh and Porto Alegre respectively (both secured 9th instead). Add to that Bloom's prevalence on MTGO, where it was November's most-played deck online at 8.5%, its RPTQ share earlier in the month at 7.3%, and its collective Day 2 share at 5.1%, and it's clear Bloom has put up tier 1-worthy numbers in the past month. Do not ignore this when choosing your deck or sideboard! With Bloom on a two-month hot streak, Blood Moon is more valuable than ever before. So is Twin as a deck-choice. Similarly, you need to know what cards to remove, discard, and counter when playing against the deck: "but Bloom is so fringe!" doesn't cut it anymore. There might have been a time where you could hope to "wing it" through the matchup or outright dodge it. That time is not today, so don't be caught unprepared in December.

Right after Pittsburgh closed, Patrick Chapin wrote an article for SCG Premium entitled "Twin and Affinity, For A Change?" Even if you can't read it behind the SCG paywall, the title's implicit irony still captures most of Chapin's argument: in Modern, all that's old is often new again. Today's metagame update underscores this point. As we're about to see, our tier 2 is wilder and wackier than ever, but tier 1 is mostly unchanged and stable. This continued stability is a promising sign of both format health and Modern's ability to regulate powerful strategies as they arise.

Tier 2 Decks

Whenever the tier 1 field narrows, the tier 2 field almost necessarily expands. That's never been more true than in November. Our October update saw an impressive but still manageable 11 decks in the tier 2 bracket. November? Try 15. Although this is a staggering array of viable strategies, it shouldn't be too surprising. A narrow tier 1 makes it easier to metagame around most-played decks and pick something with strong positioning. That's exactly what we see in many of the tier 2 decks, many of which directly go after tier 1 bigshots and all of which are great choices as you head into December tournaments.

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Merfolk4.9%3.4%4.5%5.8%
Grixis Twin4.2%3.1%4.6%4.3%
Infect4.0%4.5%2.6%5.1%
Abzan3.9%2.8%4.9%3.4%
Scapeshift3.3%2.6%3.0%3.8%
Naya Company2.5%2.6%1.9%3.1%
Grixis Control /
Grixis Midrange
2.4%.3%2%3.8%
Living End2.3%3.7%1.9%2.1%
Gruul Zoo1.8%1.7%1.5%2.1%
Bogles1.8%1.7%1.4%2.2%
Abzan Company1.8%0.6%2.4%1.6%
Ad Nauseam1.6%2.3%1.3%1.6%
Knightfall1.5%2.6%0.4%2.2%
Temur Twin1.4%2.0%1.7%0.9%
Elves1.4%2.0%1.0%1.6%

Diverse fields pose numerous challenges for metagame analysis, not least of which is deck classification. Wizards is notorious for grouping decks together in its Day 2 breakdowns for Grand Prix events, and although this has gotten a lot better recently, it's still present today. For instance, Grixis Control and Grixis Midrange were shamelessly lumped into one category by most deck classifiers on both Wizards and other sites. Knightfall poses similar challenges (spread between Blue Zoo, Bant Company, and a more straightforward Bant Combo list). We also see this in Burn and Zoo, where Wizards seems to classify anything running Nacatls as a Zoo deck. I do my best to straighten this out using expected values from the other metagame stats and checking if share differences are within expected variance, but it's a tricky business overall.

With those hurdles in mind, here are some quick hits for November's tier 2 decks.

  • Zoo hybrids are real.
    Atarkas CommandBetween Naya Company, Gruul Zoo (the Burning-Tree Emissary lists), certain Knightfall builds, and a host of Collected Company-less Naya lists that aren't even on the above table, the many flavors of Zoo make up about 6.5% of the format. That's a notable increase from the 5%-5.5% of October, and potentially includes some of the Affinity/Merfolk/Infect downshift we saw at play in the ramp-deck rise. Wild Nacatl is a driving force behind this uptick, and it doesn't even include Burn's increasing adoption of the Cat in their own maindeck. Bring sweepers, don't forget those Bolts, and make sure if you are playing a non-Zoo aggro deck you are doing so for a very good reason. That said, don't read too much into the notion of a collective Zoo share: playing against small Gruul Zoo lists will be a different experience than dueling the Company builds.
  • Grixis evolves.
    Kolaghans CommandEarlier this summer, Cryptic Command combined with Kolaghan's Command to drive Grixis Control's breakout performance. Then the metagame got linear and Grixis mages remembered why many players were avoiding control to begin with. Since then, Grixis decks have evolved to adopt more midrange elements, including maindeck discard and Liliana of the Veil, while simultaneously ditching the Cryptics. I've grouped both the Grixis Controls and Midranges on the table to capture the different ways you might encounter this color pairing over the next month. This lumping also acknowledges the nomenclature conflicts I've seen surrounding this deck. Given Midrange's upswing, I suspect many of those "Grixis Control" decks showing up in GP Day 2s should have been named something else.

Other quick hits include the fall of UW Control from tier 2, the return of Ad Nauseam, and the relative abundance of decks trying to play noninteractive Magic (Bogles, Living End, Elves, etc.). I'm also not 100% confident in classifying Knightfall as a tier 2 deck because there's little consensus on what separates "Knightfall" proper from other lists, like Zoo, just splashing for the combo. Until other tournament reporters sort this out, we'll lean towards a more open definition.

Metagame Predictions for 12/1 - 12/31

I've been on a roll with the last few predictions, and I was pumped to see the November metagame play out almost exactly as I expected it to. That said, we hit a little (okay, maybe not so little) snag this time around which I'll talk about in a moment, but last month's predictions were still in two-for-three territory. Let's see how it turned out!

  • Infect moves to tier 2? Yes!
    Glistener ElfThis was one of my more confident predictions and I'm glad the metagame delivered. Between Twin's rise and the format's increasing awareness of creature-based aggro, I struggled to envision a scenario where this deck stayed in tier 1 through November. Following this theory, Infect took a huge hit between the two months, dropping 1.3% from 5.3% to 4.0% by the end of November. Infect is still a great deck and a strong choice for certain tournaments (hint: know your metagame!), but it also doesn't have format-wide positioning right now.
  • Zoo stays in tier 2? Yes!
    Gruul Zoo has never been tier 2 in Modern, and its meteoric ascent from September to October might have heralded a frightening shift in the Modern aggro scene. We'd already seen Burn lists jam Wild Nacatl alongside their Eidolons and Swiftspears, and for a moment it seemed like the Cat was going to carry more aggro lists to the top. Thankfully, this never materialized. A combination of fair (Jund) and unfair (RG Tron) decks organically teamed up to beat back the Zoo tides.
  • Amulet Bloom moves to tier 2? Nope.
    amuletI had too much faith in Modern sideboards, and too little faith in Bloom, when I made this prediction. November made me pay for that confidence, with Bloom not just staying in tier 1 but increasing its share by 1.2%. Whoops. This highlights Bloom's increasing relevance in Modern and its continued status as a legitimate tier 1 player, not just a random outlier. Perhaps Modern players will take the deck more seriously now and kick it out of the upper levels, but it's equally possible Bloom is now prepared to handle that pushback and stick around. Either way, be ready for Bloom in the next month.

With no major set releases in December, or even large Modern events (a mere four rounds at the SCG Invitational hardly count), it's difficult to make meaningful and dramatic predictions for the next update. Instead of forecasting something too far from the beaten trail, tempting as it is to gamble on Faeries or Hatebears/Death and Taxes, I'm going to talk about a possible shift that will be more important for players at serious events.

  • Burn will surpass Affinity as Modern's most-played aggro deck
    After a few months of Affinity dominating, players are finally fighting back with Twin and better sideboarding Wild Nacatlchoices. To me, Affinity's November decline signals a wider drop away from the robots and towards other aggro decks. Burn, particularly Nacatl Burn, is the perfect replacement to pick up the metagame-share pieces, something we're already seeing in the small Zoo and Burn increases this month. Modern players continue to rediscover Nacatl's value, and Burn pilots are no exception. Between the traditional lists and those packing in the Naya beatstick, Burn should be able to regain ground lost by Affinity, capitalizing on players being too heavily geared against artifacts. The Burn vs. Twin matchup is also much less certain the brutal Affinity vs. Twin contest, and with Exarchs and Mites back in the game we'll expect to see more linear-minded players going with a better anti-Twin option.

This was a longer metagame update than some of the previous ones, but with all the different format dynamics at play, it seemed an appropriate length. Are there any other metagame observations you've had? Any tier rankings that don't align with your own Modern experience? Decks I've missed or given too much credit? Thanks for reading and I'll see all of you in the comment section!

 

Insider: MTGO Market Report for December 9th, 2015

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives.

A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All  prices are current as of December 9th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Dec9

Theros Block & M15

All of these recently rotated sets stayed out of the red this week on MTGO. Price gains were driven by interest in Modern and Legacy Constructed, with this past weekend holding both a Modern Festival and the Legacy MOCS.

Week to week these types of gains will be elusive for the sets as a whole, but individual cards can see steadier gains. For example, Modern and Legacy staple Thoughtseize from Theros (THS) is now difficult to find under 6 tix.

Elsewhere, Journey Into Nyx (JOU) marched higher on the back of its Modern-playable cards. It's unlikely there will be much demand from redeemers with the digital price currently at a significant premium on TCG Low. Steer clear of all junk mythic rares from this set as only utility in Modern will drive demand for cards from this set.

Tarkir Block & Magic Origins

Fate Reforged (FRF) and Khans of Tarkir (KTK) bled a lot of value this week. It's important to note that these sets will be rotating in the Spring, and there's no comparable historical price trend.

Last year, THS was stable in price heading into the release of FRF, but began a steady downtrend that lasted well into the summer. With an earlier rotation date, we may have already seen the price peaks for sets of KTK and FRF.

Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) and Magic Origins (ORI) are holding up nicely in comparison. Not only do they have another six months in Standard, they also benefit from being, respectively, a third set and a lightly drafted core set.

There are the makings of some large price moves in cards from these sets that gain utility after Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI) is released. Identifying which cards gain the most from the Spring rotation will be the key task of speculators and Standard aficionados over the coming months.

Battle for Zendikar

Dipping below 60 tix for the first time, it's entirely possible this set will drop below 50 tix before it has completely bottomed out. Selective speculating at this point can be considered, especially for rares priced at 0.01 tix or less and for mythic rares priced at 0.4 tix or less.

Akoum Firebird, Sire of Stagnation and Omnath, Locus of Rage are all priced below this threshold at the moment, each of them playable in the abstract.

As KTK and FRF rotate out of Standard in the spring, and then DTK and ORI in the fall, these cards will have two good opportunities to jump from the junk pile into the Standard playable pile. This may not occur---but with current prices below 0.4 tix the market is saying it's a guarantee, that these cards are junk and will always be junk.

With redemption providing a price floor, these three mythic rares are good value at current prices with some long-term possibility of seeing play in Standard. Be careful not to overpay for these. At the time of writing, they can be bought for 0.22 to 0.30 tix on Goatbots, which is a fine price to accumulate them at.

Standard Boosters

The end of Legendary Cube will deliver a temporary boost in demand for ORI, DTK, FRF and KTK boosters.

With the secondary market price of FRF and KTK boosters currently below the store price of $4, a pick up in demand will deliver higher prices over time as available supply gets consumed in drafts. ORI and DTK are priced much closer to the store price, so higher prices are not anticipated for boosters from these two sets.

FRF boosters are currently at 2.7 tix so demand will be evident if FRF goes to 2.8 tix or higher by next weekend. KTK boosters are currently at 3.4 tix. In a similar vein, if they hit 3.5 tix by next weekend, this will be evidence of demand from drafters.

Unfortunately, the return of the Vintage Cube will cut into any sustained demand for Tarkir block boosters. This powered Cube iteration will be returning for the holidays, running December 16th through January 6th. The popular draft format only accepts tix and play points for entry, so players will be more likely to convert their extra boosters in order to enter Vintage Cube drafts.

Combined with the release of Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) in the second half of January, this dampens expectations for future price increases on KTK and FRF boosters. Time is running out for drafters to work through the available supply of boosters.

Those speculators holding a significant number of boosters should consider the next five weeks as a good time to reduce holdings. Converting boosters into tix before the liquidity crunch of a new set release is prudent. Don't be caught short of tix at the end of January when constructed staples and boosters start going on sale as a result of the OGW release events.

Modern

Last week we talked about Burn's lack of popularity right now in Modern. Reflecting on this trend we mentioned that some key cards of the deck such as Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel might be underpriced, considering Burn is and always has been a serious contender in the format.

One week later Chris Andersen’s Burn deck finishes first at the SCG Premier IQ in Denver. With a second Burn deck featured in the Top 8 of the same event, prices of both Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel gained between 15% and 20% compared to last week.

These examples perfectly illustrate the fact that discounted Modern staples are always great speculative targets, independently of the popularity of the deck playing these cards at the time of acquisition. In such a varied and balanced format that is Modern, it’s only a matter of time before almost any decent deck posts a result.

Modern cycles also affect cards that see only sporadic play in Modern, and which are barely even present in Legacy and Vintage. Those cards may not be on speculators’ radar but are certainly worth a shot as well. Phyrexian Metamorph and Goblin Charbelcher, for instance, have quietly doubled over the course of November.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Metamorph

Serra Ascendant could be in this same category. For the past three years the M11 monk has shown one of the most remarkable and regular price fluctuation patterns. Since September its price has flattened out around 4 tix, and it only appears occasionally in variants of Soul Sister decks.

With peaks between 6 and 8 tix this is an example of a potential target to consider at a time when most Modern staples have already gained 50% or more in the past couple weeks.

Last week WotC also announced the promo card for Grands Prix in 2016 as Stoneforge Mystic. An odd choice, considering the card is currently banned in Modern and only playable in Legacy and Vintage. The news raised the specter of a possible unbanning in Modern on forum discussions and articles, which would potentially explain the choice of promo.

This is only pure speculation at this point but Stoneforge Mystic bumped by 2 tix over the weekend. An even bigger spike would occur if this card ended up legal in Modern.

Coincidentally, if Stoneforge made a return in Modern it would affect Batterskull, a card we recommended buying last week. In such a case the equipment would surely return to 40 tix, turning an already decent spec into a gold mine.

Legacy & Vintage

The finals of the Legacy MOCS were held this past weekend. With all the usual suspects represented in the Top 32 decklists, the deck that won it all was Sneak & Show, which has flown under the radar since the ban of Dig Through Time. It defeated Elves in the finals.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Show and Tell

Prices of most Legacy staples are anticipated to lose value in the short term after what was supposed to be a peak for interest in Legacy on MTGO. With the upcoming release of Oath of the Gatewatch, Modern and Standard should capture players' attention for the next two months.

Although Legacy leagues may help support prices to some extent, this format has never been a predictable or stable place for speculators to park their tix. It is therefore advisable to close any Legacy positions at this point.

Legendary Cube is ending today and with it the supply of PZ1 boosters. These packs contain not only valuable Legacy and Modern cards but are also the only source on MTGO of cards from the new Commander 2015 set.

Historically, cards with competitive constructed applications from Commander sets have always seen rising prices during the few months following their release on the MTGO store. With an even more limited availability, we believe Commander 2015 cards, and therefore PZ1 packs, should follow the same trends in the months to come.

On the heels of the second Power Nine Challenge, both the Total VMA set price and the P9 Index plateaued towards the end of November. Just one week later Vintage prices as a whole seem to have resumed their upward trend.

P9 pieces are up by 6% compared to the previous week and Black Lotus has gained 40% in value since October. Such a fast price increase on MTGO is unprecedented for the most iconic of Magic cards, indicative of the strong recovery of Vintage online.

SF

Pauper

The outlook in Pauper remains unchanged and again this week prices are moving up. Many Pauper staples, including Sunscape Familiar, Mental Note, Exclude, Snuff Out, Snap and Firebolt have set new all-time high records this past week.

SF

Thanks to the introduction of Pauper leagues, the format has never been so popular. Some staples may reach ridiculously high prices for commons as they have only been printed once, in old and under-opened sets.

Pauper speculators may want to consider locking down some profit as prices are shooting through the roof. A sustained inflation of Pauper prices may encourage WotC to schedule flashback drafts sooner or later, which always has a radical effect on common prices.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Akoum Firebird
Sire of Stagnation
Omnath, Locus of Rage

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None

Changes to GP Coverage

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Yesterday a huge announcement was made on the Mothership with regard to GP coverage. The long and short of the changes is that live WotC coverage will be limited to a maximum of one event per week.

While live coverage will be scaled back, text coverage and decklists will continue to be published, and the verbiage of the announcement suggests that we can expect to see more content with footage from events that weren't broadcast live. I would assume this means features similar to Walking the Planes in lieu of a live stream.

Third party coverage from companies like Channel Fireball and Star City Games will still be available for GPs run by these companies.

While a reduction in coverage doesn't seem to have any financial implications on its face, camera time can be a substantial factor in MTG finance. All four PTs will still be broadcast, so the largest source for camera-driven spikes will still be around, though whether there is coverage for a particular format in the near future should be a factor for if and when to invest in a position.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: Evaluating the Effect of Promo Reprints

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Welcome back, readers! Today's article will be on promotional reprints and their effect on card prices. The idea for this article came from our forum discussion regarding the promotional reprinting of Stoneforge Mystic as an upcoming GP promo.

I've previously written an article on the effects of judge promo printings on card prices (found here) and I got a lot of positive feedback. The latest announcement got me thinking about all the other, non-judge, promos.

Unfortunately, I ran into a pretty big snag---the site with the oldest pricing data has gone dark (given a cease and desist order). Most of the other sites only have data going back to 2012, and as you'll see below, many of our promos came out before then.

Even if our data is incomplete, we can still glean some information from looking at it. We'll try to get a general idea of how these promos affected the overall Magic financial market.

The Promos in Question

Below are the promos I'll be analyzing today. We're not paying attention to the low-value stuff like FNM promos of Standard cards, but rather limiting ourselves to the high-impact promos from GPs and invite-only events.

There are plenty of other promos that don't appear here (some of them extremely valuable), but their value is most often tied to extreme rarity. These include older FNM promos, some JSS promos, and some Champs promos.

Today I want to focus just on the cards that were reprints of highly-in-demand staples at the time.

2007

  • GP Promo - Spiritmonger
  • PT Promo - Eternal Dragon

spiritmonger2007 eternaldragon2007

2008

  • GP Promo - Call of the Herd
  • GP Promo - Crystalline Sliver (Originally FNM promos that were stolen and sold on eBay. Most were later recovered, but WotC decided to distribute them as GP promos in the summer of 2008.)
  • PT Promo - Mirari's Wake

callofherd2008 sliver2009wake2008

2009

  • GP Promo - Chrome Mox
  • PT Promo - Treva, the Renewer

mox2009 treva2009

2010

  • GP Promo - Umezawa's Jitte
  • PT Promo - Avatar of Woe

jitte2010 woe2010

2011

  • GP Promo - Maelstrom Pulse
  • PT Promo - Ajani Goldmane

pulse2011 ajani2011

2012

  • GP Promo - Goblin Guide
  • GP Promo - Lotus Cobra

guide2012 cobra2012

2013

  • GP Promo - Primeval Titan
  • GP Promo - All is Dust
  • WMCQ Promo - Vengevine

titan2013 dust2013 vengevine 2013

2014

  • GP Promo - Batterskull
  • WMCQ Promo - Geist of Saint Traft

skull2014geist2014

2015

  • GP Promo - Griselbrand
  • WMCQ Promo - Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
  • RPTQ Promo - Liliana of the Veil

griselbrand2015thalia2015 liliana2015

2016

  • GP Promo - Stoneforge Mystic
  • RPTQ Promo - Snapcaster Mage

stoneforge2016 snapcaster2016

The (Incomplete) Data Set

As I stated earlier, due to the site with the longest running database of prices going under, our data set is pretty limited.

For those interested, here is the full set we'd ideally be working with, replete with the lacunae. "OG" means the original, non-promo version of the card.

Promo Type Date of Announcement OG Value at Announcement OG Foil Value at Announcement OG Value 6 Months Later OG Foil Value 6 Months Later OG Value 12/6/15 OG Foil Value 12/6/15
Spiritmonger GP Promo 12/04/06 - - - - $1.65 $10.99
Call of the Herd GP Promo 11/16/07 - - - - $0.75 $3.42
Crystalline Sliver GP Promo 05/30/08 - - - - $5.36 -
Chrome Mox GP Promo 12/01/08 - - - - $14.24 $40.90
Umezawa's Jitte GP Promo 11/05/09 - - - - $31.11 $246.74
Maelstrom Pulse GP Promo 10/15/10 - - - - $10.56 $15.67
Goblin Guide GP Promo 12/06/11 - - - - $29.90 $42.99
Lotus Cobra GP Promo 04/06/12 $5.99 - $4.99 - $10.97 $19.49
Primeval Titan GP Promo 12/10/12 $9.08 - $7.88 - $10.07 $19.58
All is Dust GP Promo 04/25/13 $16.36 - $17.98 - $8.87 $27.44
Batterskull GP Promo 09/05/13 $13.00 - $19.59 $44.92 $14.75 $33.25
Griselbrand GP Promo 08/04/14 $24.97 $99.99 $17.05 $73.99 $13.73 $50.99
Stoneforge Mystic GP Promo 12/04/15 $22.03 $130.72 - - $22.78 $128.92
Eternal Dragon PT Promo 09/02/06 - - - - $1.38 $10.92
Mirari's Wake PT Promo 11/09/07 - - - - $7.11 $24.65
Treva, the Renewer PT Promo 12/01/08 - - - - $1.14 $16.53
Avatar of Woe PT Promo 11/02/09 - - - - $2.89 $18.71
Ajani Goldmane PT Promo 10/15/10 - - - - $8.99 $13.00
Vengevine WMCQ Promo 02/27/13 $15.00 - $13.36 - $16.64 $27.52
Geist of Saint Traft WMCQ Promo 06/06/14 $18.28 $58.50 $13.32 $50.00 $14.59 $39.57
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben WMCQ Promo 03/30/15 $4.74 $32.08 $5.21 $29.38 $5.23 $27.36
Liliana of the Veil RPTQ 10/11/14 $63.00 $275.32 $90.63 $220.00 $94.99 $249.95
Snapcaster Mage RPTQ 10/18/15 $64.00 $184.95 - - $59.63 $178.21

 

Sadly that's a lot of little dashes (meaning lack of data), but we'll just have to work with what we have. I have four full data points to work with and one partial (Batterskull).

First let's look at the prices of the original versions, at the announcement of its respective promo, six months later, and now. As we might expect, this yields an overall negative trend.

promoprice graph

Removing Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil (the latter which forces a much larger Y-axis increment), we get a better view of the other cards.

pricebreakdown 2

Here we see three promos causing a downward price drift six months after the announcement. (Note that in some cases, six months after the announcement there were still no copies on the market.)

Two others appear to have gone up. Thalia's price looks more flatline than positive, and could be an artifact of the way prices were calculated. Batterskull, however, showed true positive growth (followed by a decline once copies saturated the market.)

The general trend is down, but this is far from conclusive. The variation in the few viable data points we have make it difficult to make a blanket statement.

What if we look at the original foils' value though?

og foil value chart

Here we go... In this chart every single item shows an initial negative trend (although Liliana of the Veil did recover subsequently).

This implies that for those who want to pimp their decks, enough demand is satisfied by the promos to cause a drop in price. The magnitude of the drop seems heavily dependent on the card, but the trend is at least somewhat defined.

Conclusion

In conclusion, these types of promo printings don't seem to terribly affect the original card's value, but they do seem to affect the original pack foil's value. It's also readily apparent that from the day of announcement to six months later, all have dropped in value. Whether they recover depends on the card's desirability and playability in various formats.

There are obviously lots of other factors that can play a role in these cards' value. This includes changes to the Banned & Restricted List, the announcement of a new format (Modern was announced in May of 2011), and new cards that interact with old ones in powerful ways.

All of these factors, and many others, can affect card prices. So while we seem to have uncovered a (relatively obvious) trend, without a good bit more data I don't feel confident calling it universal.

Hopefully I can dig up some better data for a future article and revisit this topic. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

- David

Breakers Bad: 17th at PIQ Denver

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Greetings once again Nexites,  it's your editor here with another tale of missed glory tournament report. Sheridan will be back tomorrow with the monthy metagame breakdown. (and it will be polished to a mirror shrine, right Sheridan?!) Last time saw me missing at States by the skin of my teeth playing UW Fish. This time is more a case of tripping inches from the finish line.

Tragic Slip Art

I had planned on playing in the Standard Open on Saturday and only playing the Modern Premier IQ if I scrubbed out, but during the week leading up to the Open I had a problem. My Jeskai Tokens list was crushing its way through the red decks in our gauntlet, but could not beat Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Duress and Transgress the Mind. This might have not been a problem since the Colorado metagame, especially at large tournaments, is always red heavy. But my very average performances in Standard tournaments during the week, and an Open Trial Friday night, convinced me to skip the Open and just play Modern. Given what I saw in the coverage, I think I made the right call.

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Keep Your Eyes on the Prize

Of course, watching the coverage proved to be a problem: I started thinking about my deck choice. One of the biggest mistakes you can ever make is question your deck selection the day before an event. You'll never be more practiced and ready than with the deck you intended to bring, no matter what tech you hear about the day before. Just don't do it. I know this and have suffered for audibling in the past. And yet there I was pouring over recent results between rounds, worrying about how well positioned I was and whether I should be playing my Mentor list or UW Titan, apparently forgetting that neither had the pedigree or proven record as my Fish list.

Thankfully, I had to leave my computer to do some actual work which broke the spell my anxiety had cast. To be doubly sure, I took apart and de-sleeved every Modern deck I had except Fish (to remove the temptation) and locked all my gear and deck in my car to await the following morning where I registered the following list:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
3 Master of Waves

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Unified Will
2 Echoing Truth

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Lands

7 Island
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Wanderwine Hub
3 Mutavault
2 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Dispel
1 Unified Will
1 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Stony Silence
2 Rest in Peace
2 Hibernation
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Meddling Mage

Yes, it's the exact same list I played at States: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. No, I have not changed my opinion about Harbinger of the Tides. It also would have only been as good as Echoing Truth once, and much worse on several other occasions. This 75 has continued to serve me well and so until there is a massive shift towards aggro, tempo, or dedicated combo decks, this is likely the configuration I will keep using.

The Tournament

There are 142 players in the PIQ, meaning we're in for a bruising eight rounds. It's going to be a long day.

Round 1: Connor Kelley, Infect (Win 2-0)

Connor is a fairly young local player but is pretty good nonetheless. He's usually on weird combo decks but rarely the same one twice so I have no idea what to expect going into the round.

Game 1
I've started using Rock Lobster, Paper Tiger, and Scissors Lizard to determine play/draw and win, leading with an Aether Vial. Connor has a Breeding Pool and Serum Visions, which tells me precisely nothing about his deck. I charge my Vial and play Master of the Pearl Trident and pass.

Blighted AgentThen Connor drops Blighted Agent and I'm pretty sure I'm dead since I have no Paths or Truths in hand. I just Vial in Cursecatcher and pray. Draw step: still no removal. Attack for four, play Silvergill Adept to try and draw Path, draw another Adept instead, Vial in the Adept and draw a Lord. Guess I'm dead, pass the turn. Connor untaps, plays Pendelhaven, plays Groundswell with landfall and, to me, it looks like he suddenly realizes he has to Pendelhaven in response or not at all which he does. He then plays Distortion Strike and hits me for seven poison. I untap, Vial and play two lords, and kill him.

After the game he tells me that he thought that the Vines of Vastwood in his hand was another Groundswell so that he had lethal, which is why he paused after playing the first one. Too bad for him, but we've all made that mistake.

Sideboarding:
-2 Unified Will, -1 Aether Vial
+1 Hibernation, +1 Dispel, +1 Tectonic Edge

I often shave a Vial for sideboards cards and Wills are too slow. Hibernation is of limited value so I only bring in one.

Game 2
On the draw I keep one land, a Vial, a handful of creatures, and Spreading Seas. I probably lose to Nature's Claim but you really can't mulligan when you have plenty of blocks for Glistener Elf and Spreading Seas for Inkmoth Nexus. He has a turn one Glistener Elf. I don't draw land or a Path and play my Vial. He plays Inkmoth Nexus and Groundswell to hit me for five poison. I draw another lord. Whelp, I'm probably dead so I pass the turn.

Glistener ElfI get a reprieve when he just animates the Nexus and hits for two. I'm a lucky man! ...who fails to draw land or interaction again, even after Vialing in Silvergill Adept, so I just play the another Vial. Connor reveals why I'm not dead on his turn when he finds another land and plays Wild Defiance. He then makes a mistake by attacking with his Elf which I happily trade my Adept for. He explained afterward that he had no pump in hand besides more Wild Defiances and was hoping to buy himself time to draw some for his Inkmoth, but that leaves him fewer outs to just kill me if I continue to have mana trouble, especially with Defiance out. In any case I'm still dead unless I draw a land to Spread the Nexus, which I immediately do, charging my Vials to one and three. Connor just plays another Defiance and passes. I charge my Vials to two and four and play Lord of Atlantis. Connor draws and plays Blighted Agent but it's too late. I Vial in another lord and Master of Waves for six, then untap, play two more lords, and attack for 23.

I freely admit I got really lucky to win there: Infect is a really bad matchup and Connor drew poorly. This match took all of 10 minutes so I have plenty of time to scout the field. It's a healthy assortment of BGx, Tron, various blue decks, and Bloom. Also two Lantern players. Boo. Here's hoping I dodge.

Round 2: Michael Vellequette, Elf Aggro (Loss 0-2)

I've never seen Michael before and so have no idea what to expect. I certainly wasn't expecting what actually happened.

Game 1
Heritage Druid
I lose to Paper and we both mulligan. My mulligan has one land and five lords. I agonize over it but reason I have good enough odds between the scry and two draw steps to find a land, and if I do then the hand is very good. So I end up keeping. Then Michael leads with Forest and Elvish Mystic. This is bad: Elves is a horrible matchup because they're just too explosive for me to keep up. I whiff on my draw, play my land, and pass. He plays two more mana elves and passes, also on one land. I draw a Vial and play it, hoping I'm not just dead. He plays an Elvish Archdruid and Heritage Druid. I don't draw land again and concede.

That sucked.

Sideboarding:
-2 Unified Will
+2 Hibernation

Game 2
Hibernation
My opening hand is kind of slow, but it has Path and enough lands so I keep. He opens with Llanowar Elves and I respond with an Adept hoping to find Hibernation. I don't. He then plays Bramblewood Paragon. Yes, you read that right: Bramblewood Paragon. Collected Elves is bad, but Aggro Elves is even worse. He then has Nettle Sentinel which gets a Paragon counter. I weakly play a lord and pass. He plays his entire hand thanks to another Sentinel and Heritage Druid, including two lords of his own. I'm simply dead unless I draw Hibernation.

I don't.

Well, that really sucked. It's lucky for Elves that Splinter Twin keeps it down because Heritage Druid is a little broken. No I'm not bitter, why DO you ask? My swift defeat means I have plenty of time to get lunch and cool off before the next round.

Round 3: John Gaebler, BW Tokens (Win 2-0)

Another new face. This is what I want from big events: people I haven't played before. John's quite personable which makes the match more enjoyable and helps him deal with the crushing I deliver.

Game 1
We both mulligan and I keep a reasonable grip with Silvergill, Cursecatcher, and Vial. John starts very slow and it isn't until he plays a Raise the Alarm into a Vialed in Cursecatcher that I know he's on Tokens. I just play out some Silvergills and then sweep up an entire Lingering Souls with Echoing Truth before dropping two Master of Waves to crush him. BW Tokens is a good matchup for me since maindeck Truth is so powerful against them.

Sideboarding:
-2 Unified Will, -1 Aether Vial
+2 Rest in Peace, +1 Tectonic Edge

Will is unlikely to be good if he has a reasonable start while RiP is very good against flashback cards. The extra Edge is insurance against Vault of the Archangel.

Game 2
My hand is slow, but John's is slower. He gets off an Inquisition to take Echoing Truth but only has two lands both of which I Spread. It takes him too long to find a third for his hand full of Lingering Souls to save him from Master of Waves. I have Rest as well, just in case.

That was a convincing boost to my confidence. Time to press ahead!

Round 4: James Alcorn, Amulet Bloom (Win 2-1)

I swear I'd seen James before, but he gave no sign he knew me. In any case, I knew from playing near him previously that he was on Bloom.

Game 1
We both mulligan, and then James takes another one. I'm on the play and curve well from Vial into Adept and Cursecatcher, and again into Reejerey and Pearl Trident. James has a turn one Amulet but no Karoos, putting up no real resistance. This is typically what I see from Amulet: impressive explosive potential but frequently It Just Does Nothing.

Meddling MageSideboarding:
-4 Spreading Seas, -1 Aether Vial
+2 Tectonic Edge, +2 Meddling Mage, +1 Unified Will

Spreading Seas is a pretty minor speed bump usually and I'd rather have hard answers for his lands. Meddling Mage is amazing at shutting the deck down.

Game 2
We both take one mulligan and I keep a hand with Vial, Cursecatcher, and a Will leading into Master of Waves. We both start slow with me playing Vial but not having any two drops, just more Cursecatchers, while he uses Ancient Stirrings to find lands. On his turn three he goes for an Amulet and I Will it, Vialing in Cursecatcher. My reasoning is that I need to slow him down so that I can get some kind of offense together but he has a second Amulet to ruin my plan. It was a calculated risk at the time and wrong in retrospect. Not something I'd do again. My only beaters for many turns are three Cursecatchers so he had plenty of time to eventually find Titans and kill me.

Game 3
On the play I open two Tectonic Edge, Meddling Mage, Aether Vial, Master of the Pearl Trident and two Master of Waves. Do you keep?

.

.

.

No of course not. YOU SNAP KEEP! Yes, you might lose to Nature's Claim but if he has anything besides a turn two kill then you completely shut him down with Meddling Mage and Tectonic Edge. This is exactly what happens. I get out a turn three Mage, follow it up with Kira, and then Master of Waves. James can't risk going above three lands because of double Edges and the mana to use both in one turn. He reveals that he had two Titans in hand at the end of the game.

Mage is really underrated for what he does. If you're scared of combo there are few better sideboard cards out there.

Round 5: James Storm-Blevins, Grixis Control (Win 2-1)

The name sounds familiar and when he sits down I recognize James from the PPTQ circuit. What I don't remember is what deck he was playing so this could get interesting.

Game 1
I lead with Vial and he has fetchlands into Thoughseize. I like it when my opponent begins the game at 15. I start dropping creatures and he has Serum Visions and another Thoughseize. I manage my damage output well enough in the face of a constant stream of removal that I eventually kill him with a Cursecatcher.

Sideboarding:
-2 Spreading Seas, -2 Path to Exile, -1 Aether Vial
+2 Rest in Peace, +1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, +1 Unified Will, +1 Dispel

I know he has Tasigur so I leave some removal in. The counters and RiP's are fantastic against Grixis.

Game 2
No Vial for me, just Cursecatcher and Silvergill into a stream of creatures that start trading for removal. Meanwhile, I attack his red sources with Edge and Spreading Seas until he's totally off red.Radient Flames After beating him to 10 I have a decision to make. I can just attack with the two lords I have in play, or add the Reejerey I have in hand to put him to 2 life. What makes my decision for me is that I know he has Radiant Flames in hand because he forgot he had no red source the previous turn and tried to play it. I play around the card I know, which also means that any shockland is a dead draw. He draws an Island and plays Damnation.

Dammit.

Well, still no red source, so the Kira I have as follow-up should be good. He draws Bloodstained Mire, gets a Mountain and plays Flames.

Double dammit. His hand is so stocked with removal at this point that I can never get back into the game and he kills me at one life.

Game 3
For this one I don't have a Vial, just Cursecatcher, and once again we play the game of trades until I resolve Kira. He goes for Radiant Flames but I have Will for it and then Rest in Peace to shut off his graveyard. Snapcaster Mages cannot save him anymore.

That was an exhausting match and I'm glad the rounds keep going long so that I can decompress and recover between opponents.

Round 6: Brandon Nelson, Esper Gifts Control (Win 2-0)

You've all heard of Brandon: he won Grand Prix Salt Lake City last year. He's a very good player who I've played a number of times. In Modern, he's usually on Twin or Jund, and I win when he plays Twin and lose when he's on Jund.

Game 1
Lingering Souls
Brandon's on the play, mulligans, and leads with Marsh Flats. Not expecting that, I play Vial. He then plays Flooded Strand, cracks both his fetchlands for an Island and tapped Godless Shrine. Seeing my confused expression, he assures me that he has not forgotten how to play Magic and needed to get his fetches down so that he could Serum Visions. Of course, now I'm really confused because this is nothing like he's played before. I just start laying creatures which he Wraths away, only for me to play some more and islandwalk past his Tasigur and Lingering Souls. Is he, is he playing Esper Mentor? I really want to ask but know he won't answer until after the match.

Sideboarding:
-2 Spreading Seas, -1 Aether Vial
+2 Rest in Peace, +1 Unified Will

I may not know what he's playing but I know that RiP is good against Snapcaster and Souls. He seems slow enough that Will might also be good.

Game 2
Brandon mulligans again and then shocks himself to Inquisition of Kozilek me.timely reinforcements Shockingly, he takes a Lord of Atlantis instead of my Aether Vial. I think this is simply wrong, but he said that he didn't care about Vial because he had no countermagic. I put the mana advantage from Vial to good use getting some threats out. He accelerates into his Tasigur, which I reset (for the rest of the game, as it turned out) with Echoing Truth. I beat with a Silvergill and Mutavault pumped by Master of the Pearl Trident while he plays two Timely Reinforcements, the first of which I Will away. This buys him time but doesn't stop the beats and his Grave Titan is quickly Pathed. He has no removal and simply dies.

Brandon jokes about my drawing perfectly to beat him, but I respond that I was hardly perfect, just good enough this time. I'll take being Just Good Enough if it means I win. I also ask him about his deck. He is playing Mentor, but this is really an Esper Control list that runs Mentor to provide an overwhelming clock against combo decks. I file that away for later, it's definitely worth investigating.

At this point the pairings are brought out and I realize that I'm in trouble. My breakers are terrible, with my OMW% at only 44%. The only X-1 with worse breakers is Gerry Thompson of all people by a tenth of a point. To make Top 8, I need things to really break my former opponents way the next two rounds, and most likely win both rounds myself.

Round 7: Zachary Mullen, Bring to Scapeshift (Win 2-0)

Let's get started! For Zarchary, this is an actual win-and-in. For me, it's likely just the first step.

Game 1
Things go well for me, despite being on the draw since I lead with Vial. He just plays fetchlands for all colors and suspends a Search for Tomorrow for the first few turns. Eventually he gets out a Sakura-Tribe Elder to block a Master of the Pearl Trident but has no other resistance. I kill him from 13 with Master of Waves.

Sideboarding:
-4 Path to Exile, -1 Aether Vial, -1 Spreading Seas
+1 Unified Will, +1 Dispel, +2 Tectonic Edge, +2 Meddling Mage

Elder and Search means Scapeshift, and lands of every color means Bring to Light. Counters and hard mana disruption are the order of the day in both those cases.

Game 2
Zach has another clunky start while I have Cursecatcher and Silvergill to start beating. Once again he accelerates into nothing while I just keep up the pressure. The turn before I kill him he does play Bring to Light. While a Scapeshift for seven is not lethal I don't want him tutoring at all, so I counter it. Pretty easy win.

bring-to-lightI get the feeling that his deck let him down, but in my experience, Bring to Light is too clunky an approach to beat streamlined aggro. Still, he was X-1 so maybe it's just me.

Checking the standings again confirms my worst fears. My breakers are still only 48% putting me in 8th place and there are two 16 pointers with breakers at least 7 points better than mine. For me to be safe by drawing all of my previous opponents need to win and the 16 pointers both have to lose. Neither scenario is likely so I have to play it out. I could take the draw and roll the dice and at minimum be assured of a Top 16 but I came to win. You can argue about the theoretical benefits of  loss-minimization vs. profit-maximization, but I decided a long time ago to always go for the win in Magic and I'm not going to back down now. I'm going for top seed or going home!

Round 8: Chris Andersen, Burn (Loss 1-2)

Chris seems familiar, but I'm not sure how. I know he's playing a fast deck but not what. I'm not liking my chances here.

Game 1
I like them even worse when I'm on the draw. Turns out I'm against Burn and my draw is not very fast. Meanwhile, Chris has Eidolon and multiple Searing Blazes. I still steal the game, despite my own misplays, thanks to him mistargeting his Blazes and sequencing his burn poorly.

Searing BlazeThe last turn of the game, I have two lords in play, he's at 9 with a Swiftspear, I'm at 1 with a one-counter Vial. I'm holding a Cursecatcher and Unified Will. I pass and Chris should just play Searing Blaze for one, which I will counter with Will. What he does instead is play the Swiftspear he drew. What I should have done here is Vial in response so that my Will is never offline. Instead, I just let Swiftspear resolve, hoping to ambush both when he attacks. He does attack and I activate Vial. At this point, Chris just has to Blaze in response and win. Instead, he lets me play Cursecatcher and then goes for the Blaze. I counter the spell, eat his blockers, and then attack for exactly lethal.

I think if we had both played optimally that last turn I would still have won, since he had four mana and two two-cost burn spells that I would have countered with Will and Cursecatcher that turn. It didn't play out like that and we both made huge mistakes, ultimately giving each other the opportunity to win.

Sideboarding:
-3 Spreading Seas
+1 Kira, +1 Unified Will, +1 Dispel

Seas is usually too tempo-negative to be good so it goes out for counters and Searing Blaze defense.

Game 2
We both mulligan, and I keep a hand with good interaction against creatures but a slow clock. He has no creatures and just burn spells. I can't put together enough offense to threaten him in time and get burnt out.

Game 3
Another slow start from him with just suspended Rift Bolt on my turn two Lord of Atlantis. Of course, my followups aren't great and his Eidolon makes recovery difficult. I flood hard and die on my upkeep to a flurry of Bolts. If one of the eight lands I drew was a spell, or if the Lord I traded for his Eidolon had been Master of Waves, I might get there but that's how it goes. I lose and am out of contention.

Final Record: 6-2, 17th Place

And that's it, I'm going home! Standings come out and my breakers now sit at 53%. Both of the 16's had won and still have better breakers anyway. Best case for me had I drawn was 10th. Mine are in fact so bad that I drop out of Top 16, right behind Gerry Thompson whose breaker's are better by less than 2%. Argh. I'm not disappointed with my deck, and I can't even blame luck since mine was good more times than it was bad. It's just really irritating when bad stats keep you out of the Top 8. Oh well. $50 is $50 so at least I break even on the day. Yes, it isn't what I wanted and it sucks to drop so far in one round but if you let it get to you then you'll tilt yourself out of ever improving or enjoying the game. You take your wins where you can get them, especially when you're as dedicated a grinder as I am.

Should I have drawn? It would have meant $50 extra, another result posted on Star City's website and an interesting playmat to add to my collection. On the other hand had I won it would have meant a considerably higher payout. I made my decision and I'm sticking with it. Would I advise you to do the same? The best I can offer is this question: Did you come to win or to profit? In my situation, if you come to win you play. If you come to profit you draw. Simple as that.

That's all for this tale of woe. Time to get back to the grind. Overall I was happy with my deck and as I said unless there is a major shift away from midrange decks towards combo or tempo I wouldn't change anything. We'll see what happens when the GP and PPTQ season starts up again. Here's hoping I break my habit of getting second at these things. I will be putting Fish down for a while since I have friends and colleagues going to Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch who'll need help testing, and major events always put me in a brewing mood. For those of you interesting in picking up UW Fish, I remind you that this deck is far less aggro than you expect, and you have to learn how to grind with this deck if you want to force your way through Jund and Grixis. May the gods of mana be kind to you all and good luck grinding your way to glory!

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David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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Posted in Modern, TournamentsTagged , , , 13 Comments on Breakers Bad: 17th at PIQ Denver

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Insider: A Stoneforge Mystic Unbanning? – Weighing the Evidence For and Against

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The banlist announcement is just around the corner, and the January 18 deadline is looming in the minds of every Modern player and writer.

We're all looking for clues about what might get released from the list and what could get the axe. We comb Twitter and articles for hints, crunch the metagame numbers, and cite personal and pro player experiences as evidence for and against certain changes.

Or we just rage against Summer Bloom and friends.

Last Friday, Wizards made an announcement that, on the surface, could have had nothing to do with the Modern banlist. It might, however, become one of the biggest announcements in recent format history. Or it might be a total red herring.

Stoneforge Mystic GP Promo

In the article, Organized Play content specialist Mike Rosenberg reported that Stoneforge Mystic would be the Grand Prix promo card of 2016. The card choice itself, the article's phrasing, and the overall history of past Grand Prix promos immediately raised questions across the Modern community.

Why did Mystic get picked for a Grand Prix season with just three Legacy events? What was Mike talking about when he asked how many Batterskulls would be played alongside Mystic by spring? Most importantly, did this promo card signal a potential unbanning of Stoneforge Mystic in January?

Today, I want to break down Stoneforge Mystic's chances of an unbanning in January. There is a lot of hype and anti-hype in the Stoneforge conversation, much of it dismissive or ignorant of the evidence. Let's see if we can get a more balanced picture.

Mystic has been banned since Modern's formation, and her legalization would have a huge impact on both her price and the Modern metagame. There's a lot riding on this.

Sadly, we don't have conclusive evidence one way or another. But given the stakes surrounding Mystic's possible unbanning, it's important that we analyze the evidence we do have in order to make smart choices, especially around spending your hard-earned dollars.

This will also let us critically contribute to the discussion on other sites (or even at your local store), ensuring everyone is considering all the facts before making big statements.

Money on the Line

Whether or not you believe the promo announcement signals a Mystic unbanning, it's still important to acknowledge the financial impact such a hypothetical unban would have. This helps us understand why players are so interested in the announcement---there's a lot on the line if the Kor is actually set free in January.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

Right now, Mystic's demand stems primarily from Legacy. She's a regular in Blade lists, like Curtis Nower's Esper build that earned fifth at Star City Games' Kansas City Open in late November. Additionally, she's a been a cornerstone of the Death and Taxes archetype for years (see Robert Brewer's list from a Grand Prix Tacoma trial).

So the various Blade variants (Esper, Death, Jeskai), along with trusty D&T, are the main Legacy drivers pushing Mystic's price tag into the $20 range. A secondary factor is Commander and casual demand.

This prods us to speculate about what a Modern unbanning might do to the card's value.

Stoneforge herself came out of Worldwake, a set that didn't get opened too much and led to one of the first runaway price tags in contemporary Magic (the almighty Jace, the Mind Sculptor).

Worldwake wasn't the most impactful set in the old Zendikar block, but it does offer some interesting price comparisons in manlands like Celestial Colonnade and Creeping Tar Pit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Celestial Colonnade

Tar Pit and Colonnade currently carry a price in the $20 range, despite seeing only fringe Modern play and holding extremely minimal stock in Legacy. Assuming Stoneforge is at least as widely-played as these manlands (an incredibly conservative assumption), her current $20 share could easily jump to $40-$50.

Between Legacy and Modern, it's reasonable to expect Stoneforge would see as much play as Snapcaster Mage, which is consistently in the $60 range. Innistrad had many more packs opened than Worldwake, so Mystic's ceiling could even be higher.

With Stoneforge only at $20 today, you stand to gain anywhere from 200% to 300% on these investments, or more! Add to this the hype surrounding unbannings (Bitterblossom spiked well over $50 when unbanned despite seeing no play), and the prospect of an overnight explosion becomes undeniable.

This price potential means you need to pay attention to the evidence for and against her unbanning; whether as player or investor, there's simply too much value on the table.

The Evidence

Before the recent Grand Prix promo announcement, Stoneforge would not have been my top unbanning spec for January. For me, that distinction still belongs to Sword of the Meek, a relatively innocuous card that directly disrupts the linear and aggressive plurality we see at top tables, and indirectly incentivizes pilots towards underrepresented control decks.

That said, the recent promo announcement gives us new information, which is where we need to start in assessing Mystic's chances of an unban.

1. The Legacy and Modern Context

There will be about 50 Grand Prix tournaments in 2016. Nine of those will be Modern, with only three focusing on Legacy. This includes a massive Modern weekend during May 20-22, when both Star City Games and Channel Fireball will host Modern events on opposite sides of the country.

Our upcoming February Pro Tour will also feature Modern, and much has already been made about Star City Games' decision to double down on Modern events at the expense of Legacy ones.

Given this tournament picture, it seems odd that Wizards would make their 2016 Grand Prix promo a Legacy staple rather than a Modern one. Wizards continues to double-down on Modern, with two Modern Masters releases already completed and a third undoubtedly on the way in 2017. Add in the continued Pro Tour support and we're seeing a very Modern-friendly world, not one too suited for Legacy.

Despite these context clues, it's possible Wizards is indeed throwing a bone to Legacy players in Mystic's selection. It could be a way to increase format interest, or even a means of connecting a previous Grand Prix promo (Batterskull) to a newer one. If so, Mystic's selection would have nothing to do with Modern and everything to do with Legacy.

Personally I find this unlikely, given the sheer magnitude of Modern's presence in the Grand Prix circuit compared to Legacy.

2. Grand Prix Promo History

Modern became a format in the summer and spring of 2011. Since then, every single GP promo has been legal in Modern.

The last time a Legacy-legal card got printed as the promo was Umezawa's Jitte back in 2010. This was an earlier era of Magic when Extended still meant something and Modern was a distant dream of players who hated the Reserve List.

Six Years of Grand Prix Promos

In fairness, not all of these cards were intended for Modern. Pulse, Guide, Cobra and Titan all got selected as promos contemporaneously with their Standard seasons. These were Standard staples that incidentally saw Modern play just by virtue of overlapping set legalities.

Then again, All Is Dust, Batterskull and Griselbrand were not Standard-legal when Wizards tagged them as promo cards. They were Modern and Legacy playables but, with the semi-exception of Batterskull, weren't even top-tier staples in these formats.

Griselbrand is certainly a powerful upstart in both Legacy and Modern decks, but it's not a consistent Tier 1 winner. Batterskull sees Legacy play wherever Mystic does, but very little on the Modern side of the fence. As for the colorless sweeper, that was a Modern R/G Tron nod all the way.

Considering these past seven promos, it doesn't seem likely Wizards would suddenly print a new promo that isn't legal in either Standard or Modern. That's particularly true in a year when Legacy support is diminished from previous years.

Of course, Mystic isn't currently legal in Modern, which means the Kor promo either breaks a trend ongoing since 2011, or heralds a banlist change in January.

3. Announcement Wording

After reading the promo announcement, many players focused on the article's peculiar phrasing before turning to the contextual evidence presented above. I normally caution players from reading too much into particular word choices in Wizards' content, but in the case of Friday's article, it was hard to ignore.

Rosenberg included two curious sentences in his article, two statements that have fueled much of the Stoneforge buzz since his announcement went live.

I wonder how many promo Batterskulls we'll see next to these new promo Mystics by springtime next year...

On the one hand, Rosenberg might just be connecting this recent promo to an earlier one from a previous season. On the other hand, he could be suggesting a notable uptick in Mystic and Batterskull play over the coming months.

Such an uptick is unlikely to come from Legacy. There are zero Legacy Grand Prix events in the spring, compared to two Modern ones in March, another two in May, and the Modern Pro Tour in February. If so, it means Modern is the driving force behind a springtime increase in play.

Of course, we also might be reading too literally into the term, "springtime."

However, before we get to the year of the Equipment-fetching Kor, we have one last event to get through.

Rosenberg's second quote is odd for reasons similar to the first. With Legacy seeing significantly less support in 2016 than 2015, it feels out of place to call it the "year" of the Kor. Legacy isn't even a "format of the Kor" under the metagame status quo.

It's also uncommon for a Wizards announcement to make such statements around a promo card beyond just a release note. We didn't see Wizards calling it the year of the Batterskull or the Griselbrand in either the 2015 or 2014 promo announcements.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Griselbrand

This could suggest there's something special about this promo, and this year, which would lead to an increase in Mystic play. That special event could be Mystic's unbanning.

I freely admit this is the most circumstantial and, potentially, speculative evidence so far. It's entirely possible Rosenberg just picked his words poorly, or deliberately kept them ambiguous to generate buzz (or maybe just to troll the poor Moderners).

As a social scientist by training, I am definitely familiar with the dangers of reading too much into these kinds of sources. I urge readers to use caution when imposing our own wishes and narratives on ambiguous material.

That said, the combination of this suspicious wording alongside clues from the format, Grand Prix promo, and metagame contexts is collectively much more persuasive than Rosenberg's rhetoric would have been on its own.

4. The Modern Metagame (Evidence For)

The overall Modern metagame is, at once, evidence both for and against a Stoneforge unbanning. We'll cover the "against" side below. For now, let's think about ways in which the current state of Modern might support a decision by Wizards to unban Mystic.

There are numerous potential metagame reasons to unban Mystic in Modern. Of those, two stand above the rest as possible drivers behind a Wizards unbanning.

The first is the abundance of linear, aggressive, damage-based decks at top Modern tables. Between Burn, Affinity, Merfolk and Zoo variants, we're looking at about 30% of the format, using October metagame numbers from Modern Nexus. Those numbers are still around 25% for November, as the upcoming Nexus update will show.

Linear Aggressive Staples in Modern

Stoneforge directly cuts into these decks, combining with Batterskull to stall the game around turns three and four if unanswered by the aggro player. It's definitely possible this is overkill for the current metagame, but it's equally possible Wizards doesn't view it that way and wants to free Stoneforge to fight against the burn.

The second most plausible metagame justification for a Mystic unban is the relative lack of white in tiered Modern decks.

Looking at November metagame data, zero of the five Tier 1 decks (Burn, Affinity, Jund, R/G Tron, Amulet Bloom, URx Twin) use white as a primary color. Although Alex Bianchi put up a commendable finish with his Jeskai Twin list, this was an anomalous finish for the historically blue-red- and Grixis-based archetype. Even Dickmann's Temur version sees more play!

Overall, white is very much absent from Tier 1 contenders, relegated to Lightning Helix in Burn, an extra +1/+1 for Nacatl, and sideboard slots scattered among other top-tier decks.

Top Tier White Cards

Even moving down to Tier 2 decks, we still see little white. Only Abzan (currently Tier 2 but with Tier 1 potential), Naya and Abzan Company, and Bogles use it in any real capacity. Compare that with the ten or so other decks that don't even touch the color.

Given these factors, particularly its absence at Tier 1, Wizards might try to push white by releasing Stoneforge back to the masses.

5. The Modern Metagame (Evidence Against)

Unfortunately for the pro-Mystic camp, there are also convincing reasons why Stoneforge should not be unbanned. Many of these are found in the initial reasoning for the Kor's banning back in August 2011.

Writing in "Welcome to the Modern World," one of Modern's inaugural articles, Tom LaPille explained her removal from the format before it even began. He cited Mystic's dominance (and banning) in Standard, ending with this:

We prefer to just ban this card rather than risk yet another format dominated by Stoneforge Mystic.

This fear is still alive and well today. We already saw Abzan hit a 15%-20% metagame share earlier this year, around the time of Pro Tour Fate Reforged, and Mystic's unbanning could easily push a deck like that over the top.

A goodstuff midrange deck like Abzan would certainly find room for Mystic and the requisite Batterskull and Sword (or two) to complete the package. If Abzan could hit 15%-20% without Stoneforge, things could be much worse after.

In past unbanning cases, there have been reasons to overturn the initial ban explanations. Bitterblossom got unbanned in a metagame hostile to control and tempo, and it has mostly languished in binders ever since. Wild Nacatl was banned for restricting aggro decks to Zoo, and then unbanned when it became clear that Affinity, Merfolk, and other options would still be viable alongside the cat.

But Mystic? Midrange decks have historically been some of Modern's strongest, with both Bloodbraid Elf and Deathrite Shaman eating bans due to their participation in midrange hegemonies.

Stoneforge could easily play into that narrative, especially if Abzan's early-2015 shares are any indication. This points to Mystic as a needlessly risky unban target.

Stoneforge Mystic's Overall Chances

There are other sources of evidence I did not explicitly speak to in this article. This includes suggestive tweets by Aaron Forsythe (not too promising for the Mystic crowd), as well as past conversations with Forsythe and interviews with LaPille.

Information like this speaks both to Wizards' management style for Modern, and the probabilities that various cards get unbanned. It also further complicates our understanding of Mystic and her chances in Modern.

Overall, I think there is about a 30%-70% chance that we see Mystic unbanned in Modern. I'm basing this mostly on the evidence discussed above about the Legacy/Modern context, the promo history and the wording of the article. That's enough to push her chances up from sub-5% into the 30% range.

I still think Sword of the Meek is the likelier unbanning, but who says we can't have both?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sword of the Meek

Don't buy into Stoneforge unless you have deep pockets that can take the hit. You're going to spend around $80 for one playset. If Stoneforge remains banned on January 18, the ensuing supply surge from Grand Prix promos is likely to drop her to the $10-$12 range (a similar trajectory to Griselbrand last year).

That means losing $8-$10 on every $20 you spend, for a possible 40%-50% loss. Sink too much cash into that and you might not have enough to speculate around the Oath of the Gatewatch spoiler season!

Of course, Stoneforge's upside is as good as it gets in Modern. She'd be an overnight staple and would easily double your investment if unbanned. It's up to you to weigh the unban/no-change probability in making this decision. Or just buy one playset to be on the safe side!

There's one last possibility for Mystic that I haven't seriously considered: a possible reprint in Standard without a Modern unbanning. Given the presence of Relic Seeker in Origins, however, this seems unlikely so I'm not giving it too much attention. Still something to keep in mind as a corner-case scenario if you are doing any investment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relic Seeker

Thanks for reading and I look forward to hearing your feedback in the comments below. Any evidence I missed or interpretations you disagreed with? Any other feedback or opinions about Mystic's chances? No matter how it shakes out, here's hoping for an exciting January announcement in a bit over a month!

The Vintage Cube Cometh

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With the introduction of the Legacy Cube, it's appropriate that the Holiday Cube has been renamed the Vintage Cube. Despite the name change, worry not, as the Cube will still be making its way back onto MTGO for the holidays!

The announcement regarding the name change and the most recent updates can be found here.

I admire that Adam simply acknowledges blue's place as best color in the Cube and that he embraces the high power level rather than going out of his way to try to nerf things. That's the very spirit that I imagine when I hear the word "Vintage". I can't say that I'm in love with every change being made to the Vintage Cube, but these look to be based on removing the worst performing cards and adding sweet new ones, which is ultimately a good model. The inclusion of Temples over pain lands is also one that I'm firmly behind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Enlightenment
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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Posted in FreeTagged Leave a Comment on The Vintage Cube Cometh

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Trevor Holmes Plays MTGO Ep. 10: U/B Faeries!

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What’s up guys! Welcome back to my Modern Nexus Video Series, where we take a deck in the format and run it through some matches on Magic Online. This week we have Anthony Huynh's 13th place GP Pittsburgh U/B Faeries list! U/B Faeries has been popping up randomly ever since Bitterblossom was unbanned last February (read up on Modern's ban list history here!). Did Anthony finally find the key to Faeries success in Modern? Let's find out!

Thumbnail_Master

"U/B Faeries, Anthony Huynh (13th, GP Pittsburgh 2015)"

Enchantments

4 Bitterblossom

Creatures

3 Spellstutter Sprite
3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Vendilion Clique
2 Mistbind Clique
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Sorceries

3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek

Instants

3 Cryptic Command
2 Mana Leak
1 Remand
2 Go for the Throat
1 Murderous Cut
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Disfigure
1 Dismember

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
3 Watery Grave
3 Drowned Catacomb
4 Creeping Tar Pit
4 Mutavault
2 Ghost Quarter
5 Island
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Slaughter Pact
2 Countersquall
2 Damnation
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Engineered Explosives
1 Sower of Temptation
1 Dispel
1 Go for the Throat
1 Aetherling
1 Duress
1 Sword of Light and Shadow

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Faeries Deck Tech

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc7LGNmRnlQ&w=560&h=315]

Round 1

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxWrohY15F8&w=560&h=315]

Round 2

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKm_0BySTCc&w=560&h=315]

Round 3

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xc6V5b5rEHs&w=560&h=315]

Conclusion

So, another solid performance, with a few important lessons learned.

First, Faeries plays similar to Jund Midrange, but with more synergy akin to something like Merfolk. Grinding down combo opponents with both discard and counterspells feels excellent, but topdecking discard and individually weak Faerie cards late definitely feels bad. Often, we are trading cards with our opponent only to have them topdeck better in the lategame. Kolaghan's Command is pretty close to our worst possible nightmare, and that card is seeing wide play (though not as much as a few weeks ago). I'm not sure what Faeries needs to push it into Tier 1, but for now I would rate it a solid role-player based on metagame conditions. If you've got some experience with this deck or have been tuning it yourself, let me know in the comments!

Also, we're 10 episodes in to our Modern Video Series. While I always ask for opinions and feedback, this week I'm begging for it. Let me know what you like about my Video Series, and more importantly, let me know areas where I can improve! My wish is that this Series can grow, both in popularity and entertainment value for my readers/viewers. Help me out! Thanks for watching guys, and I'll see you next time.

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
twitter.com/7he4rchitect

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