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Izzet Too Good?: May ’22 Metagame Analysis

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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Welcome to the third installment of my Insider Modern metagame analysis series. Which will likely be the last time I number these articles. The first few are needed to establish a pattern; after the third, expectations should be fully in place, so that the next article is anticipated. Barring a banning in the next month, the June article will feature the trend graphs I mentioned in the very first article. With only three data points, the graphs don't really look like anything. Hopefully with four there'll be something to see.

Modern is in a very strange place. On the one hand, the plain statistics make it look like Modern's in a very bad place. On the other, players find the gameplay fun and engaging. More importantly, there isn't a deck that is winning events more than any other. Thus, the metagame appears to be quite healthy. Which is really hard to get my head around.

It Won't Go Away

Why are you like this, UR Murktide? I keep saying that there's no reason for you to remain an outlier, and then you have to go and become more of an outlier. It's happened twice now, when will you start making sense?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

In all seriousness, UR Murktide's continued position as The Deck in Modern really doesn't make much sense to me. I know that the data I present makes it look like Murktide's running away with Modern. It's not. By a long shot. What you can only see by going through all the decklists as I do is that Murktide is omnipresent, but not omnipotent. In fact, its actual performance is pretty mediocre overall.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

I see a ton of Murktide in Challenge and large paper event results. However, Murktide winning an event is becoming increasingly rare, and even its putting a pilot into Top 4 is unusual. I typically see a few in the 5-8th place, then most of the entries will be in 8-16, with a few more scattered through 16-32. Which aren't bad results by any metric.

However, when Murktide regularly is the top deck in starting population at these same events, it's in line with expectations. Wizards has unexpectedly confirmed this appraisal, as their far more complete data shows Murktide has an overall win rate of 50%. Which, again, is good but not phenomenal.

Good Ol' Rock

Which doesn't help explain why Murktide continues to be a statistical outlier. It really just leaves me stuck with "it's really popular and successful because lots of players like it." That is technically true, but deeply unsatisfying.

But what if we take a second and abstract this situation? What if Murktide is rock? Not rock the midrange value strategy (though as a fellow aggro-control deck it does have some similarities), nor The Rock being that classic GB version of the rock archetype, but rock. As in rock, paper, scissors (RPS). If this is the case, then it all starts to make more sense.

Murktide is a default "good" deck with no real strengths or weaknesses. And it being extremely popular fits into the classic dichotomy for the Magic metagame. Rock is the most popular deck, and so players are throwing paper to beat rock. This accounts for the disparity between Murktide's win percentage and metagame presence.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

It also has implications for future developments. Even in an RPS metagame, which deck is likely to win depends on the size of the tournament. When rock is the most played deck, paper is favored to win a short tournament; that's scissors in medium length tournaments, and rock in the long ones. Right now, most larger tournaments are of medium length. There aren't Grand Prix yet and SCG won't have a Modern Open until July; events that a rock deck like Murktide would be favored to win.

Stay the Course

What that means for the immediate future is that nothing is likely to change. Murktide's place in Modern is being determined by non-metagame considerations. It doesn't make players more likely to win by playing it, they play it in large numbers because they like it. Thus, Murktide will not lose metagame position on the basis of its winrate. It's all down to player preferences, which I can't hope to predict. We just have to live with Murktide's presence in Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

In the longer run, things are far less clear. Allowing Murktide to sit at 10%+ of the metagame for a long time is unlikely to sit well with Wizards. It was a major contributor to Splinter Twin getting banned, after all. Also, if I'm right about Murktide's place, once bigger events come back, it should dominate. June is looking like a safe month for Murktide players. After that, no guarantee.

The Other Outliers

As for all the other outlier decks, things are more normal. There isn't anything particularly special about 4-Color Blink this month. Statistically, it's fairly borderline about being an outlier in the first place, meaning it was close to the line but definitely over it.

And that largely came down to how I classify these decks. If I lumped Blink in with the Control variant, 4-Color Omnath pile would be an outlier every month. If I got more granular and separated the Risen Reef version from the rest, they'd be low Tier 1/high Tier 2. It's not that a particular deck is doing abnormally well, but that many versions are, and it's not so worthwhile to separate them all.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risen Reef

As for Cascade Crashers in paper, I'm not totally sure. Crashers fell back to the bottom of Tier 1 as I predicted it would on MTGO, literally just above the cutoff. In paper, it's a very different story. Unlike Murktide, Crashers is a deck that wins events and consistently places highly. I suspect that many players were simply biding their time to spring Crashers on an unprepared field. It would explain the spreads I was seeing over the month.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

Will it continue? I'm skeptical. Everything I said about Crashers last month still holds and played into the fall on MTGO. Paper tends to move slower than online so I would expect Crashers to stay in upper Tier 1 in June but lose its outlier status. Over time, it should fall down into the general scrum.

The Other Contender

Meanwhile, Hammer Time lost its outlier status. Instead, it's now the best performing non-outlier deck. Which continues to make sense. It gets free wins quickly, what else needs to be said? Rhetorical question; that isn't strictly accurate anymore.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

Over the past month, I've noticed Hammer Time rearranging itself. When it had Lurrus of the Dream-Den, Hammer Time was a stripped-down drag racer with Lurrus acting as the pit crew. There were efforts to adjust to a slower style with Nettlecyst, but those never panned out. These days, Hammer continues to maintain the swift-kill style that brought initial success. However, it's pushed itself to be more of a fish deck with defensive interaction.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blacksmith's Skill

This new direction is not as inherently powerful as the old version. However, it rewards smart play and experience far more. The old decks didn't have much to do other than place their cards on the table in the right order and hope that was good enough to win. Now, sequencing and predicting opposing plays actually matters. This means that there will be more grinding than desirable, but sideboarding into Kaldra Compleat can flip the tables.

The Wider View

Taking a look at Modern overall, what I see is a metagame which is settling. There are certain decks that have consistently performed well over the past few months, and nothing has managed to shake them from their seat. There continues to be considerable churn underneath all that, but the top tier decks have made themselves known and look to be pulling ahead. Thus, the opportunity to turn a speculative profit on them has likely passed. There's certainly money to be made in moving the top cards from top decks, it will just require harder work than before.

An Old Friend Returns

So instead look for decks outside the normal Tier 1 crowd to speculate on. And I have a solid recommendation on that front. Grixis Shadow is back, and that's an opportunity for arbitrage. I was never clear why it disappeared so completely after Lurrus was banned, but that's exactly what happened. I think MTGO players just weren't willing to put the time in because it continued to do fine in paper. Not exceptional, but fine. That turned around this month as Shadow made it into Tier 1 in paper. And squeaked into the online population ranking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Death's Shadow

Some might point to Ledger Shredder as the key to the resurgence. Which kannister, who won a Challenge with Shredder-powered Shadow, might agree with. However, that's not the case. It will certainly lead to more players picking up the deck online, but the paper lists aren't Shredder lists. Shredder frequently isn't played at all and when it is, it's there in low numbers. I think that players simply gave up on the deck, assumed it was bad, and that became a self-fulfilling prophecy. The illusion is broken, and now they're streaming back. Be prepared to move some black cards.

Going Out on a Limb

The other area I'm seeing opportunity is on the fringe. There were a lot of offbeat decks making their way onto my online and paper tiers. I don't think that the Calibrated Blast, Wish Scapeshift, Glimpse of Tomorrow, or Academy Manufactor decks are actually good. However, they're fun and quirky enough to attract a following. While being off-the-wall and unexpected enough to nab some wins against unprepared and inexperienced opponents.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Academy Manufactor

Which is why if you're looking for speculative opportunities, I'd looks towards the aforementioned and similar cards. Players get burned out playing their old faithfuls. They like branching out into the weird. Even if they don't tend to stay very long, vacations are lucrative. Given that the metagame is stabilizing and players will be hitting a lot of decks they've already seen over and over, there will almost certainly be a push to find something new. And that's where investors can make money. Plan accordingly.

The Winds of Change... Stalled?

It looks like Modern has finally started to fully process all the power that was dumped in with Modern Horizons 2. Whether this is a good or bad thing depends on perspective. I have doubts that there will be major shakeups in the coming months. Double Masters 2022 will make some cards more accessible, but won't have metagame impacts. There's potential in Dominaria United as with any Standard set, but no way to tell. This may simply be how things are in Modern now.

Must “Budget” Mean “Bad?” In Defense of Cheap Alternatives

Posted on by Joe Mauri

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"Strictly Better"

After mana burn was removed from the rules of the game in 2009, no Magic player in their right mind would elect to cast Counterspell instead of Mana Drain. Considering only card quality, (and ignoring price), Mana Drain is clearly better than Counterspell in every possible way, right? Not when your opponent is raiding your deck, stealing your cards, or copying them. In this case, it's often better to play a less-powerful card, such as the simple and unassuming Counterspell, rather than go for the "most powerful" card in Mana Drain.

Surely You Can't Be Serious?

Oh, I am most certainly serious, I even wrote about it a bit here. There is, of course, another factor I mention and that is budget. When you steal you are playing with your opponent's budget and not your own. The theoretical Xanathar, Guild Kingpin with only Basic Lands versus a Xanathar full of expensive cards would be more of a challenge for the non-budget player.

"Theoretically" Budget Can Be Better

But *only* in theory, and only against stealing-based decks, right? Yes and no. Consider the following cards.

In one way or another, all of these cards generate Treasure, but three of these cards are $0.50 or less. If you were to compare the amount of Treasure made per USD spent you would find that the budget cards are killing it from a Treasure per dollar perspective. To put a finer point on it Goldvein Pick turns any creature into a Treasure generator for very little mana and virtually no dollars. Magda, Brazen Outlaw turns all your Dwarves into Treasure creators and they merely have to tap to do so whereas Old Gnawbone makes all your creatures potential miners. However, the Dragon is $40. I had better win every game Gnawbone hits the table, or I am going to regret that purchase.

The Notable Difference

In this example, Magda does not require combat but Gnawbone does. Not only is Magda less mana and fewer dollars but it is also easier to activate. Both creatures can impact the board immediately if you have Dwarves or creatures already in play. On top of that, Magda has an *additional* ability that is extremely powerful while Old Gnawbone has...Flying. The five mana and $40 price differential are enough for me to declare that Magda is a powerful budget option.

Fine, Now Sell Me On The Ogre

Hoarding Ogre is priced at a literal penny (with .99 shipping). This card is not good. I will make no such claims to the contrary in this case. However, I do want to say that I have played more than one SpellTable game with the Ogre on the table and I was surprised at how *decent* it was. Keep in mind that 50% of the time it is generating two or more Treasures and it activates on attack, not on damage. Compared directly to Goldspan Dragon it's obvious the Ogre is not as good but the Dragon costs you one more mana and $20 more dollars and one in 20 times the Ogre makes three Treasure to the Dragon's "effectively" two.

Pilfering Is Worth It

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer tends to get killed immediately when it hits the table. It's also very easy to block. Granted, in the normal multi-player nature of Commander, there's almost always one player that does not have a blocker and Ragavan does have dash potential. However, once it's a known factor the shields never come down. So the real question here is are you willing to pay $60 or more for the potential of a couple of Treasure? Here it's obvious that Ragavan is a good card and if the monetary cost was lower you would see it in far more Commander decks. Of course, this is primarily a Modern card but hey it's Commander legal. Speaking of $60 or more...

This Isn't The Extortion We Need

Dockside Extortionist is plain busted. It's best in any kind of combo deck, where it's usually a game-ender. I feel like Extortionist is a kind of virtual "cheat code" in Commander. I have seen it fail only once. Every other time it's been close to a spell that for only two mana says "add eight mana to your mana pool," and occasionally also says "copy this spell as much as you want," and "you win the game." Many budget cards are not that much less powerful than their expensive counterparts. This card though is just on another power level and you are paying for it monetarily speaking.

If It's True For Treasure...

Sensei's Divining Top is a really good card. It's super-low mana, has the ability to draw a card, is hard to remove, and has a great additional ability for just another mana. As an Artifact, it can go in pretty much any deck. The only downside? $50. I purchased *three* Commander decks for $50. It's not merely about power but also the opportunity cost involved. The vast majority of Magic players spend $50 on cards but it's a lot less common to spend that much on any single card. For me, it's a tough sell to conclude that I am going to get more fun, more playability, more interaction, and more memories out of one card than three entire decks. Also, the numbers say that the three decks were *technically* more valuable from a monetary angle as well.

But The Combos, The COMBOS!

Yes, Sensei's goes really well with The Reality Chip and helm of awakening to draw your entire deck and likely win. But outside of that? While Top is highly efficient many of the budget options can be superior in the right situations. If you add infinite mana both Mystic Speculation and Soothsaying let you cycle through your entire deck, not too shabby! But you do not need *infinite* mana to dig deeper than Top; four to six is all that's required. Yes, every single mana is super important and valuable, especially in the early turns and most especially in cEDH. But if the game isn't over on turn five or six, it's very likely you will have enough open mana to appreciate your budget "Toptions." Furthermore, these other cards scry which the Top does not do. Getting "Top locked" happens occasionally.

Of course, if you are not playing blue you have fewer options but just how unplayable is Crystal Ball? Turns out it's extremely playable and is a perfect budget option. Maybe you have a lot of Commander decks and you own one Top but not seven. For fractions of a dollar, you can outfit multiple decks.

Are These Good Budget Cards?

Lands are essential to every deck and are usually costly. However, there have *always* been budget lands available. Thing is, those Lands were usually extremely bad...but only when compared to the absolute best. The vast majority of modern-day budget Lands simply enter the battlefield tapped and then are as good *or better* than even the best lands ever made. Don't believe me? Just look at Prismari Campus and Skybridge Towers. Once they have untapped they are now better than many other Land cycles because they have activated abilities. Does Volcanic Island scry? I think not. Are "The" fetch Lands strictly better than Naya Panorama? They cannot tap for colorless mana and they cost you one point of life. A lot better? Yes. Almost always better? Probably. Strictly better? No. While the price of the fetches has come down and is much more reasonable than ever, they are still fairly pricey when compared to budget options that are $0.25 or less.

Meandering River, Cloudcrest Lake, and Land Cap used to be some of the prototypical budget Lands that showed off the disparity in strength between better and more expensive options. Today, however, there are considerably better budget alternatives that have added utility. Just look at dual land cycles like the Gates, snow duals, and the Strixhaven campuses. Depending on your deck, you can honestly say that being a Gate matters, being Snow potentially matters, and having more inexpensive utility lands actually makes a deck both more powerful and more consistent, so, even budget options are good! Speaking of power and consistency...

We Haven't Even Talked About Power Level!

What really defines the power level of a deck? It's simply speed and consistency. Speed, of course, is a somewhat ambiguous quality. It's not solely about what turn you are doing something or exactly what that something is. More so it's about how close you are to ending the game on any given turn. Decks that are really powerful and consistent will get to a win condition that rapidly closes out the game very quickly and very often. Overall, these decks are required to use certain cards to achieve their goals. Thus those tend to be the most powerful and most expensive cards. Essentially in nine out of ten games these cards will stand out and have a high impact. Budget cards? Well, they tend to be good in maybe six or seven out of ten scenarios, comparatively worse than other cards in two and potentially superior only in one of ten situations. Who wants to use cards that are only good half of the time?

Answer: Casual Players And Deckbuilders

Racing to the win is not the only thing that matters for many commander players. They are looking for a gameplay experience and a potential story is more valuable than just a win. Many players, particularly new players, look at decklists online, fill decks with the absolute most powerful cards and then wonder why their games are not lasting very long or turn out to be no fun. Taking just a few steps like using tapped Lands can fix the pacing of a game and at the same time save you money. While your deck may "go off" one turn later it will still have the right amount of mana of each color and sometimes even give you extra benefits that another "better" deck might miss out on due to their narrowmindedness.

Variety

The final point for budget options is variety. If you start every deck build with the same ten "staple" cards and then mix in color-specific staples you are going to end up with many different decks...with many of the same cards. With many of the same cards in every Commander deck, you're going to get the same gameplay experience over and over again. I can't imagine buying expensive cards to *reduce* replayability. I have made a special effort to be mindful of using the same few cards in every deck and to really make sure that a deck is about an entirely different experience. Budget cards work wonders here!

Wrapping It Up

"Budget" should never be a dirty word. I feel like there is too much emphasis on only playing the absolute best cards which crowd out a lot of other options that are nearly as good and can be superior in the right circumstances. I agree that if you have a tournament mindset the evaluation of a card needs to be fairly strict and based on the win percentage of said card. However, for nearly everyone else it's a lot more important to evaluate a card on how often it will lead to a fun, interactive, and unique experience. On that scale no budget card is bad.

What's your favorite budget card that is just about as good as its more expensive counterpart? Let me know in the comments.

Blue Cards to Pull from Bulk, Pt. 1

Posted on by David Schumann

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Welcome back to Cards to Pull from Bulk! In this series, we highlight juicy cards one may find while digging through bulk. Each installment focuses on a different color of bulk cards. So far we've covered gold, colorless, white, black, red, and green cards.

We'll ignore cards whose value is tied to being from Magic's very early sets, i.e. anything that is from The Dark or earlier. I have saved blue for last because thanks to its initial abilities of countering spells and card drawing cards, it is undeniably the most powerful of the colors, and therefore has the most cards that tend to be worth picking from bulk.

The list for blue is big enough that I have to split it into two parts. Today, we will go over the Commander cards to look for, and next time we'll look into other formats.

Pricing Standards

To keep our list manageable, I'm restricting it to some of the best sub-$5 finds in each color according to TCGPlayer-mid price. I have found that understanding the reason for a card's value is extremely beneficial in evaluating other cards and their potential, and have included a bit about each card. Note that I may include cards that are very near to $5, even though there is potential that they breach $5 in the near future.

Blue Bulk to Pick: Commander Demand

1.Propaganda

Taxing opponents in Commander has shifted to be more of a white ability, but the original card behind the idea is good ol' Propaganda. Commander is a format where many decks go wide and people want to play big spells, so "charging" them 2 mana per creature to attack you is a great way to dissuade being attacked.

Impressively, while this card has 9 printings, it still regularly resells for $4+ and it always recovers after every reprint (so far, at least). I bring this up because it is included in the new Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate set and is currently going for under $2, which is unlikely to remain that low forever.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Propaganda

2. Psychic Corrosion

"Mill" decks have a cult following in Magic. While they typically are not powerful enough to be Tier 1 in any format, the players who enjoy trying do so with gusto. Many mill cards target a specific player; Psychic Corrosion is a break from this mold. Given that it triggers off of drawing a card, something you already want to do in Commander as much as possible, it is possible to turn Corrosion into a win condition that can hit all players in one shot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Psychic Corrosion

3. Freed from the Real

Freed from the Real originally spiked in price thanks to Zaxara, the Exemplary. However, Wizards keeps printing creatures that generate multiple mana that can go infinite with this card, so it will likely continue to be worth something until it gets reprinted into oblivion.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Freed from the Real

4. Pongify

Mono blue decks don't have a lot of choices when it comes to permanent creature removal, so the few instances that do exist tend to be highly desirable. The other option is Rapid Hybridization, which also makes the list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pongify

5. Windfall

Windfall has been abusable since it was first printed in Urza's Saga. It pretty much always allows the caster to gain card advantage over their opponents and encourages players to empty their hands quickly. Thanks to Commander decks often drawing a lot of cards, it can easily be more powerful than Wheel of Fortune.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Windfall

6. Split Decision

Split Decision is a new card to the $1.49+ club, its arrival likely tied to the return of the "Will of the Council" mechanic on Tivit, Seller of Secrets. The abilities themselves are both good, but I don't see this card remaining at this price in the foreseeable future, so I would list any copies I had now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Split Decision

7. Peregrine Drake

The Urza block creatures that untapped the same number of lands as their CMC have been abused since the days of Rec/Sur. Any land that taps for more than 1 mana lets these creatures potentially go infinite. Peregrine Drake happens to be one of the cheapest options in the cycle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Peregrine Drake

8. Reality Spasm

This card has been bulk for quite some time, but if it seems familiar to you, it may be because I called it out in my Hinata, Dawn-Crowned article a few months back. Since it doesn't fit into a lot of other decks, this is one I would list as quickly as possible while demand is still somewhat high.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reality Spasm

9. Diffusion Sliver

As we have seen in my other articles, the Sliver creature type often makes these lists because the tribe is unique and beloved throughout Magic's history. With few exceptions, the unique uncommon ones with useful abilities will eventually break the $1.49 price point every time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Diffusion Sliver

10. Muddle the Mixture

Muddle the Mixture used to fall into the Modern demand group. Now, it seems to have fallen out of favor in Modern, but remains a useful counterspell/tutor for Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Muddle the Mixture

11. Long-Term Plans

Commander is a format that loves its tutor effects, so even ones with noticeable drawbacks can still find a home and when you factor in the rampant card draw of the format it's not difficult for this to be an instant-speed Demonic Tutor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Long-Term Plans

12. Arcane Denial

Arcane Denial is a card that has waffled on this list over the years. It is a powerful Counterspell that draws the caster a card and provides a little solace to the person who had their spell countered. I have found a lot of copies in bulk throughout the years as people tend to ignore it thanks to its far more powerful big brother Force of Will from the same set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcane Denial

13. Ophidian Eye

This card has been a Commander staple ever since the days of the original Niv Mizzet, the Firemind[card] decks of old. Card draw is one of the most desirable mechanics in Commander and the fact that [card]Ophidian Eye triggers on any damage to an opponent, not just combat damage, means it is one of the more abusable ways to draw lots of cards repeatedly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ophidian Eye

14. Rapid Hybridization

As mentioned, this newer version of Pongify also makes the list and for the exact same reasons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rapid Hybridization

15. Guildpact Informant

While many might see this as simply a worse Thrummingbird, its value is mostly based on the fact that it was not in regular packs of War of the Spark; it was only found in the Jace, Arcane Strategist planeswalker deck, thus far fewer copies are floating about.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Guildpact Informant

16. Honden of Seeing Winds

We have seen Hondens of all colors on these lists thanks to Go-Shintai of Life's Origin. Sadly, the prices have pulled back considerably since the Go-Shintai was originally spoiled, so I suggest selling any copies you have while there is still demand. We saw similar price spikes back when Sanctum of All was first spoiled and it seems like most of those who are truly devoted to building a Honden deck likely have their copies so demand is waning.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Honden of Seeing Winds

17. Laboratory Maniac

Thanks to Thassa's Oracle we have seen a lot of more competitive Commander decks utilizing cards that win the game when no library remains. While Laboratory Maniac used to be a mostly casual win condition, there are enough ways to exile one's own library now that it has become a viable win condition for any deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Laboratory Maniac

18. Coastal Piracy

Repeated card draw on an enchantment is almost always going to find a home, especially when said enchantment is blue. While blue isn't often known for creating swarms of creatures, one doesn't need a huge army to take advantage of this enchantment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coastal Piracy

19. Merrow Commerce

Merfolk are a beloved tribe and often straddle the line between casual and competitive. This fact that over the years we've gotten multiple Merfolk that have tap abilities simply makes Commerce get better with each new Merfolk.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Merrow Commerce

20. Aphetto Alchemist

This is another one of those cards that has flown below the radar for quite some time, yet its value has been above our $1.49 threshold for 5 years now. Blue doesn't have a lot of "mana ramp" and very few creatures that can untap artifacts, which often tap for multiple mana; Aphetto Alchemist is often even more than a 2+ mana ramp creature in blue.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aphetto Alchemist

Blue to the Bone

We've saved blue for last, and it's certainly not disappointing us so far. Join me next time for our foray into the blue cards to pick from bulk who have their demand come from non-Commander formats. Until then, happy picking!

GB Fight Rigging | Adam Plays Magic

Posted on by Adam Cohen

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It's time to talk about the fresh new archetype on the block made possible by Streets of New Capenna, Fight Rigging. This deck has been popping up in both Explorer and Pioneer and is an absolute blast to play. The core concept is to use a cheap, bulky beater like Rotting Regisaur to turn on Rigging's Hideaway effect. Doing so enables casting a massive spell like Titan of Industry for free as early as turn three. These cards go over the top of what opponents are trying to do, and come down before they can stabilize.

What I Like

I'm a sucker for a good combo deck, and Magic has no shortage of them. However, decks like these struggle when the combo is disrupted or the right pieces don't come together on time.

I like that Rigging doesn't rely heavily on its titular card to function. Mana dorks like Llanowar Elves accelerate out midrange bombs like Elder Gargaroth and Rotting Regisaur, then force opponents to remove them immediately. Often times, they simply can't.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fight Rigging

And Rigging itself is a strong card even without immediate access to the free spell. Buffing mana dorks to give them respectable stats turns them into real cards in a drawn out game. Opponents will need to kill every creature played, which is much easier said than done.

Additionally, this build of the deck is able to accommodate Obosh, the Preypiercer as a companion. Between Gargaroth, Verdurous Gearhulk, and Titan of Industry, there are plenty of high-power trample threats that can work with Obosh to close out just about any board state in a single swing.

What I Don't Like

While Regisaur is an excellent enabler, it's not enough to reliably turn on the one-two punch of the combo. There's a significant drop off in strength for the next-best enabler, Shakedown Heavy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shakedown Heavy

Sometimes, we can fail to draw a dork, or the turn one dork is removed. Such games may often be too slow to develop, and the deck gets run over. Similarly, it's possible to draw a few too many of the expensive spells and end up a sitting duck to curve outs from across the table.

Ditching Obosh for Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor may end up being the right call to smooth out the curve in future builds of the deck. I do wish there was some form of card draw or card selection to more reliably hit that turn three/four combo sweet spot. This will be a priority as I continue to iterate on the archetype.

The Deck

GB Fight Rigging

Companion

1 Obosh, the Preypiercer

Creatures

2 Titan of Industry
3 Verdurous Gearhulk
2 Elder Gargaroth
4 Shakedown Heavy
4 Rotting Regisaur
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Gilded Goose
1 Rhonas the Indomitable

Artifacts

3 The Great Henge

Enchantments

4 Fight Rigging

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
4 Turntimber Symbiosis

Lands

1 Swamp
1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire
1 Boseiju, Who Endures
2 Forest
2 Lair of the Hydra
2 Deathcap Glade
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Darkbore Pathway
4 Overgrown Tomb

Sideboard

2 Nissa, Who Shakes the World
3 Soul-Guide Lantern
4 Fatal Push
2 Ray of Enfeeblement
3 Graveyard Trespasser

End Step

I had a great time this week and I absolutely think the Fight Rigging deck is here to stay. It's hard-hitting and creates threats on multiple axes that opponents can struggle to interact with.

If you want to keep up to date with me as I continue to tinker with the deck, make sure to follow me on Twitter at @AdamECohen. In the meantime, if you have any suggestions on what other decks I should play, feel free to leave a comment or shoot me a DM. Catch you all next time!

Izzet Summer Yet?: May ’22 Metagame Update

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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It has been a full month since Streets of New Capenna released and Modern has adjusted. Not by much, but there have been changes. Though you’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise. So today it’s time to reveal how those changes have affected the I can’t keep up the pretense. This metagame update will look very similar to the previous one. Those adjustments that have taken place are frankly rather concerning, and I don’t like what the data is saying.

Another Set of Outliers

Starting with the fact that for the third month in a row, May has outliers. And quite a few in both paper and online, unlike in April, where it was only MTGO that showed outliers. And yes, UR Murktide is once again an outlier. In fact, it is an outlier among the outliers. Which is deeply concerning. Murktide is joined by 4-Color Blink as in outlier and paper has a third one in Cascade Crashers. All these outliers were confirmed by several tests and frankly when you see the data I think it will be fairly obvious. 

As always, the outliers are excluded from the actual statistical analysis. They’re reported in their correct place on the metagame chart. 

A Tier 0 Situation?

Given that Murktide has been a consistent outlier since Lurrus of the Dream-Den was banned, the data makes it look like this is a Tier 0 situation. I understand and don’t fault anyone for thinking so. However, I can’t say that because this is completely unlike Eldrazi Winter or Hogaak Summer. Consequently, I don’t think that Murktide is a true Tier 0 deck. 

graph name="Eye of Ugin"]

The problem is that Eye of Ugin Eldrazi and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis were winning everything during their runs. It was quite literally play Eldrazi/Hogaak or lose. Conversely, Murktide doesn’t actually win many events. It makes the Top 32 in large numbers but rapidly dwindles as we cut towards Top 8. Not playing Murktide is a perfectly fine and arguably correct call. If you just want to place, Murktide is a great choice; less so if you want to win the event. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Thus, on the numbers, Murktide looks very, very Tier 0. On the actual gameplay front, I’d say no. But it nonetheless isn't a great look health-wise. 

May MTGO Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce on MTGO. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list. Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks which perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least 2 standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks. 

The MTGO Population Data

In May the adjusted average population was 4.82 setting the Tier 3 cutoff at 5 decks, which is well below the average for the previous year. This is the consequence of removing the outliers from the data. Tier 3 therefore begins with decks posting 5 results. The STdev was 7.13, which means that means Tier 3 runs to 13 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 14 results and runs to 23. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 23 decks are required. Which is all below the norm for pre-Lurrus-ban Modern. 

May’s numbers are down relative to April. To recap, January had 502 decks, February had 436 decks, and March only hit 356, April was up to 437, but May only managed 419 total decks on MTGO. It’s not too surprising considering that Commander was the main Wizards focus this month. There were also a number of preliminaries that didn’t fire and non-Wizards entities appear to have stopped using MTGO for events now, so there are fewer results to work with. That said, the total number of decks making the tier list is up to 19 out of 68 total unique decks. 

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide5613.37
4-Color Blink4510.74
Hammer Time307.16
Yawgmoth307.16
Living End286.68
Cascade Crashers235.49
Tier 2
Amulet Titan194.53
Burn174.06
4-Color Control153.58
UW Control153.58
Tier 3
UW Urza92.15
Affinity81.91
Calibrated Blast81.91
Rakdos Rock71.67
Mono-Green Tron71.68
Grixis Shadow71.68
Wishshift61.43
Coffers Control51.19
Manufactor Combo51.19

The outliers are quite noticeable. 4-Color Blink is significantly outside the normal range as is, but then Murktide is an outlier to the outlier. Again, that’s a pretty bad look even if Murktide isn’t actually dominating events.  

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risen Reef

Were I willing to differentiate between the versions of 4-C Blink that play Risen Reef versus those that don’t, it would not have been an outlier, and might not have been Tier 1 at all. I don’t think there’s enough practical distinction for that, and also feel that trying to make one is disingenuously misleading about the actual metagame. It’d be like separating Murktide into Ledger Shredder versus non-Shredder lists: technically correct, but missing the point. 

The Paper Population Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tiers, just with different data. More paper events are reported each month, but they rarely report more than the Top 8 (sometimes less). However, that doesn't mean that the overall population is lower. Indeed, paper Modern is far more popular than online and the data reflects this fact. There were 698 decks in the data, representing 95 unique decks. Paper is consistently more popular and more diverse than the online metagame. 

Paper's adjusted average decks were 5.52, meaning the starting point is 6 decks. It increasingly looks like paper will always have a higher average than MTGO. The STDev is 7.70, so Tier 3 runs from 6 to 14 decks. Tier 2 begins with 15 decks and runs to 23, and Tier 1 requires 24 decks. It will take most of the year to know whether these are indicative of what paper Modern "should" look like. 28 decks made the paper population tier, and again, it's looking like paper's size should always be higher than online's. 

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide8912.75
4-Color Blink517.31
Cascade Crashers507.16
Hammer Time375.30
Yawgmoth334.73
Burn334.73
Grixis Shadow294.15
UW Control273.87
Amulet Titan243.44
Tier 2
4-Color Control192.72
Living End182.58
Mono-Green Tron172.44
Tier 3
Jund131.86
Affinity101.43
Coffers Control101.43
DnT101.43
Ponza101.43
Jund Saga101.43
Izzet Breach Combo81.14
Rakdos Rock81.14
Izzet Prowess71.00
Dredge71.00
Tribal Elementals71.00
Mono-Red Prowess71.00
Glimpse Combo60.86
Tameshi Combo60.86
UW Urza60.86
4-Color Creativity60.86

So, yeah. Murktide just stomped everything else here. Not even remotely close. Crashers and 4-Color Blink tried but just couldn’t make it. They were actually fairly borderline in terms of being outliers, and had the trendline looked a little different, I would have left them in.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

For those wondering why I remove the outliers from the analysis, May’s paper results are indicative. If I left them in, Tier 3 would compose the decks from Affinity to 4-Color Control, with just Hammer Time joining the outliers as Tier 1. Which doesn’t feel correct even if it’s technically right. 

May Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential. 

The MTGO Power Tiers

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There was only one 4 point event in May and no 5 pointers. 

Unlike the population numbers, points in May were up fromApril, from 729 to 738. I'm not entirely sure how that happened, but it did. 

The adjusted average points were 8.45. Therefore 9 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 13.53, which is relatively normal. And remarkably similar to April’s stats. Thus add 14 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 23 points. Tier 2 starts with 24 points and runs to 38. Tier 1 requires at least 39 points. There’s a good deal of reshuffling within tiers but no changes between them. However, there are only 16 decks in the power tier with Grixis Shadow, Coffers Control, and Wishshift all failing to make the cutoff. 

Deck NameTotal PointsTotal %
Tier 1
UR Murktide10113.69
4-Color Blink7910.70
Living End597.99
Yawgmoth537.18
Hammer Time527.04
Cascade Crashers405.42
Tier 2
Amulet Titan364.87
UW Control354.74
Burn314.20
4-Color Control283.79
Tier 3
Affinity202.71
UW Urza141.90
Calibrated Blast131.76
Rakdos Rock131.76
Mono-Green Tron131.76
Manufactor Combo91.22

The point spread makes the outliers look particularly outlierish. Again, I don’t like the implications. 

The Paper Power Tiers

Unlike with population, the paper power data works differently than the equivalent MTGO data. The data is usually limited to Top 8 lists, even for big events. Not that I know how big most events are, that doesn't always get reported. In other cases, decks are missing. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award and there may be data gaps. 

Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results. When there's a Modern Pro Tour again it would qualify for 3 points, as would Grand Prix or whatever the GP equivalent will be. Star City Modern Opens and similar events also award 3 points. SCG 5k-10k and similar events award 2 points. Side events are evaluated based on the number of players and type of event. The purely local events get 1 point. There were a number of events awarding 2 points in April, but no 3-point events. There was a team event that would have qualified, but team events never count. I awarded at total of 832 points in May. 

The adjusted average points were 6.41. This sets the cutoff at 7 decks. The STDev was 9.36, thus add 10 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 17 points. Tier 2 starts with 18 points and runs to 28. Tier 1 requires at least 29 points. If that seems low, it is. But that’s what happens with three outliers. There was a lot less movement between the tiers compared to previous months, but UW Urza did fall off Tier 3 to be replaced by Esper Control. 

Deck NameTotal Points Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide10712.86
4-Color Blink718.53
Cascade Crashers637.57
Yawgmoth455.41
Hammer Time425.05
Burn374.45
Amulet Titan344.09
Grixis Shadow333.97
UW Control333.97
Tier 2
4-Color Control232.76
Living End232.76
Mono-Green Tron182.16
Tier 3
Jund151.80
Affinity111.32
Coffers Control111.32
DnT111.32
Ponza111.32
Jund Saga101.20
Izzet Breach Combo101.20
Rakdos Rock80.96
Mono-Red Prowess80.96
Tribal Elementals80.96
Tameshi Combo80.96
Dredge71.84
Izzet Prowess70.84
Glimpse Combo70.84
Esper Control70.84
4-Color Creativity70.84

It’s interesting but irrelevant to note that Murktide and Blink had very close to the same point totals in paper and online. That’s only possible due to the differences in the point system between the two. 

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual. Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position. 

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This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results. However, as a general rule decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa. How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a decks position on the power tiers are. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good. 

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite. 

I'll begin with the average for MTGO: 

Deck NameAverage PointsTier
Affinity2.503
UW Control2.332
Living End2.111
Amulet Titan1.892
4-Color Control1.872
Mono-Green Tron1.873
Rakdos Rock1.863
Burn1.822
UR Murktide1.801
Manufactor Combo1.803
Yawgmoth1.771
4-Color Blink1.761
Cascade Crashers1.741
Calibrated Blast1.743
Hammer Time1.731
Baseline1.59
UW Urza1.563

Congratulations to Living End for being the highest placing Tier 1 deck! And by quite a margin over the baseline. When everyone’s watching for Rhinos, the undead skate by, apparantly. 

Onto the paper averages: 

Deck NameTotal Points Total %
Amulet Titan1.421
Esper Control1.403
4-Color Blink1.391
Yawgmoth1.361
Tameshi Combo1.333
Living End1.282
Cascade Crashers1.261
Izzet Breach Combo1.253
UW Control1.221
4-Color Control1.212
UR Murktide1.201
Glimpse Combo1.173
4-Color Creativity1.173
Jund1.153
Baseline1.14
Grixis Shadow1.141
Mono-Red Prowess1.143
Tribal Elementals1.143
Hammer Time1.131
Burn1.121
Affinity1.103
Coffers Control1.103
DnT1.103
Ponza1.103
Mono-Green Tron1.062
Jund Saga1.003
Rakdos Rock1.003
Dredge1.003
Izzet Prowess1.003

Well done Amulet Titan for being not only the highest placing Tier 1 deck, but also the top deck overall. And unlike previous times that happened, it wasn’t entirely thanks to an SCG event. 

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without the big paper events. I tried. So, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement. 

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug; it's a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes. 

Deck NamePaper Population TierPaper Power TierAverage Paper TierMTGO Population TierMTGO Power TierAverage MTGO TierOverall Tier
UR Murktide1111111.0
Cascade Crashers1111111.0
Hammer Time1111111.0
Yawgmoth1111111.0
4-Color Blink1111111.0
Amulet Titan1112221.5
Living End2221111.5
Burn1112221.5
UW Control1112221.5
Grixis Shadow1113332.0
4-Color Control2222222.0
Mono-Green Tron2223332.5
Affinity3333333.0
Rakdos Rock3333333.0
UW Urza3N/A3.53333.25
Coffers Control3333N/A3.53.25
Jund333N/AN/AN/A3.5
DnT333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Jund Saga333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Ponza333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Izzet Breach Combo333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Izzet Prowess333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Dredge333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Tribal Elementals333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Mono-Red Prowess333N/AN/AN/A3.5
4-Color Creativity333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Tameshi combo333N/AN/AN/A3.5
Maufacturer ComboN/AN/AN/A3333.5
WishshiftN/AN/AN/A3333.5
Calibrated BlastN/AN/AN/A3333.5
Esper ControlN/A33.5N/AN/AN/A3.75

For first time, Murktide and Cascade Crashers aren’t the only purely Tier 1 decks. This happens when everything is remarkably stable across the play mediums. 

Concerning Signs

It is starting to appear that Modern’s churn is settling down. That isn’t necessarily a good thing considering how it is settling. There will always be a best deck in Modern, but for it to be one that is putting up the kind of numbers that Murktide is doesn’t bode well. And even if Murktide is knocked off, the 4-Color piles are on its heels. Hopefully, this will calm down, because I’d take continued churn over an arguable Tier 0 deck. 

Two-Drops: The Most Important Part of Your Curve

Posted on by Robert Genuario

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Draft formats start on turn two. If you have a one-drop on turn one, that's great, but it's usually the exception. Good two-drops are valuable and are often the first high-leverage game pieces we see. They define the early battlefield and dictate development. If you don't play a creature on turn two, you can expect to fall behind.

Playing a two-drop on two (or at worst, removing your opponent's) is oftentimes the first meaningful move you'll make. It's easier to stay ahead than get ahead, and since this is the first point of interaction with the opponent it has an oversized impact on the game. In Streets of New Capenna (SNC) the two-drops show us exactly what we should be doing.

Two-Drops in Streets of New Capenna

One of the reasons white is so strong in SNC draft is that it's the only color with a deep bank of two-drops. Raffine's Informant and Bounty Agent are excellent, but Sky Crier is also formidable. Additionally, you get Citizen's Crowbar and Illuminator Virtuoso at uncommon. These are all cards that you actively want to include in your deck. This is significantly more than we see in any other color.

While all the gold two-drops are good, most other colors rely on filler for their early creatures. Mayhem Patrol and Attended Socialite are aggressive, but not excitingly so. You have to include them because they cost two and there aren't many options. Sometimes they'll be good, but they're not nearly as consistent as the white ones.

Not all Two-Drops Are Created Equal

There's an old paradigm in Magic: the Gathering that claims every (good) creature is either a Mulldrifter or a Baneslayer Angel. This roughly means that a creature gives you value or it kills your opponent. While you won't often find five-power evasive threats or divination on a stick for two mana, this dichotomy is a good place to start.

Mulldrifters

Value Town

What I really want from a two-drop is quite simple. I want it to trade off and I want it to leave something behind. Preferably more than what their two-drop left them. Professor of Symbology and Hunt for Specimens did this well in Strixhaven, using the learn mechanic. In SNC, many of the aforementioned white cards fit into this group, granting a connive trigger, a counter, or the equipment half of Citizen's Crowbar.

When evaluating the quality of a two-drop through this lens, we want the value to be reliable and meaningful. But the creature itself must also find a use. Spirited Companion, from Kamigawa Neon Dynasty (NEO) draft, didn't always get to trade off. However, the card draw is above the mark for value, and being an enchantment was also worth a lot.

Comparatively, Corrupt Court Official falls short. Making your opponent cough up their worst card is nice, but the meager body rarely amounts to anything. It can be sacrificed for casualty, but it's important to trade off with early creatures in this format. The fact that a 1/1 doesn't trade well is a problem. You want more presence on the battlefield from creatures in SNC.

Baneslayer Angels

*Checks Life Total*

These are the creatures that immediately threaten your opponent's life total. In SNC, Civil Servant or Illuminator Virtuoso are the best examples. In the past, these have been headliners for some of the best archetypes. They are aggressive threats and will put pressure on the opponent's life total faster than they might expect. Forcing blocks creates its own type of value.

Occasionally, these cards need some help. Two-drops can be both enablers or pay-offs within the various synergies of a given set. Typically, creatures in this category are going to be pay-offs, because dealing damage is usually just that. Cards like Festival Crasher or Towashi Songshaper can threaten an opponent's life total when they're in the right archetype. Playing an early two-drop that synergizes with your next few plays can lead to very explosive starts.

Crooked Custodian and Attended Socialite are reasonable versions of this type of creature outside of white. They can clock an opponent and they trade up, but they're not especially great or reliable at either of those goals. I'm willing to play these cards because it's a crucial spot on the curve, but I'm not excited about it.

Sengir Vampires

Miracle Grow

We've looked at Mulldrifters and Baneslayer Angels, but what about another possible category? I call this one Sengir Vampires, or cards that can permanently grow when triggered. In truth, all of these cards can easily fall into one of the two categories above. However, I think this group needs to be specifically pointed out. In general, we need our creatures to be good now, not "hopefully later on." However, investing two mana on something we expect to grow throughout the game can be a worthy investment. In Standard, we see this with Luminarch Aspirant.

Cards like Ajani's Pridemate and Patchwork Automaton have enormous upside when you build around them. In SNC, we get Faerie Vandal at uncommon, which is supported by the connive mechanic, as well as any other way to draw a card (as if you needed more incentive to draft Inspiring Overseer). Body Dropper is another great representation of this in SNC. Blitz and casualty both trigger the devil warrior, making it a threat. The fact that it has a built-in option to grow at instant speed makes this two-drop a real problem and a critical piece of the blitz deck.

Sometimes these cards demand an early answer, as they might grow out of reach of removal or generate too much value. It can be advantageous if your opponent has to stop developing their board in order to deal with yours.

Going Forward

When I evaluate a new set, I look for two-drops that fit one of these categories. If a color pair or an archetype lacks two-drops like these, it's a red flag. When you find clusters of two-drops in a color, it's always a positive sign. A critical mass of two-drops can dictate the entire tempo of a format, as it did for the Boros decks in Guilds of Ravnica or the Rakdos decks in Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. In Strixhaven they laid the groundwork for the two poles of the format. In SNC they play kingmaker.

While scouting out new sets, your eyes will be drawn to the rares, removal, and fixing. But two-drops will be a major part of every game you play. By the end of the format, you'll know them well. So take the inside track and consider what they might offer you, as you explore new sets and reexamine older ones. What's your favorite two-drop of all time in Limited? Let me know in the comments.

Unusual and Uncommon Signatures

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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I maintain two saved eBay searches for Magic cards: one for Alpha cards sold by ABUGames at auction, and the other for Beta cards from the same seller. Most of these listings start at too high a price, but when the cards don’t receive a bid for the entire five-day listing, ABUGames will proceed to relist the cards with a lower price point. They rinse and repeat until the cards sell, so every once in a while I get lucky and find a great deal on a played card.

Over the past few months, I noticed they started listing cards as “damaged” because they had a signature written on them that wasn’t from the artist.

The mysterious signature appeared again and again, on some highly desirable cards. The Old School Discord and associated Facebook groups were abuzz with inquiries about the person whose signature this is. My interest was piqued as well because some of these prices are quite reasonable for a sleeve playable copy of the card.

The Hunt for a “Clint” Card

I tried bidding on one of the Beta Serra Angels that ABUGames was selling with the mystery signature, but I was outbid as the auction neared closing. It turns out I’m not the only one who finds this story interesting.

While I was waiting for the auction to end, I did some research and came across a Facebook post on the subject. Someone was watching an auction for an Alpha Sol Ring and was trying to figure out (like everyone else) whose signature was on the card. Then people started to notice just how many of these “Clint” cards existed!

Finally, someone chimed in with the background, lifting the mask from our mystery signer.

It turns out the person who signed these cards is named Chato Urbin, from Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Chato played Magic competitively back in the day and was a Top 10 Vintage player back when the format was still called Type 1. Apparently, it was a thing back then to sign one’s cards so that if they were ever stolen, it would be easy to identify who the true owner is.

What’s really funny is that when Chato was approached about these cards, he expressed interest in buying them all back! Does this mean these cards suddenly have a premium to them?

Not exactly. Not yet, anyway. I finally managed to win an auction (after being outbid once) for a damaged Beta Swamp, so I can proudly(?) claim to own a piece of this extremely niche collection of cards.

Eager to share my acquisition, I posted a picture in the Old School Discord. As usual, people responded with pictures of their own cards signed by Chato.

But then someone posted a new bit of information—they referenced the claim that Chato would purchase the cards back if possible. Unfortunately, when they approached Chato about buying the cards to once again bring the collection together, he said the cards were more expensive than he realized. Imagine that, Alpha and Beta cards are more expensive now than they were many years ago, by a huge margin!

Either way, there’s still an entertaining meme of a story with these signatures. I don’t know if pieces from this collection will ever merit much premium, but it’ll be a funny card in my collection for years to come.

Speaking of Interesting Signatures

This exploration led me to consider other signed cards in my collection. Of course, there are the cards I own that are signed by the artist. Kaja Foglio is my favorite artist and signature, so I have a small pile of cards signed by her. I also have a single card signed by Quinton Hoover (a Fifth Edition Wrath of God) and my iconic signed War Elephant from Arabian Nights. The former is noteworthy because the artist, Quinton Hoover passed away a while ago, and the latter is famous because the artist, Kristen Bishop, almost never signs Magic cards.

The artist for the original Stasis, Fay Jones, is an established artist in the Seattle area. Her notoriety and the rarity of her signature on copies of the card add significant value.

Beyond artist signatures, there are a handful of autographs out there that likely make a Magic card more valuable—or at least more interesting.

For example, cards signed by certain professional players may be noteworthy. I have a handful of tokens signed by Luis Scott-Vargas that I cherish. Three of them I obtained in person myself at an event long ago (I still remember how nervous I was approaching him to ask!). Since then I have had the pleasure of meeting LSV in person and even battling him in Old School--it was one of the best Magic days of my life!

I know of other stories where people have asked Chris Pikula to sign their copies of Meddling Mage and whatnot. I remember seeing a card signed by John Finkel for sale on ABUGames’ website at one point as well. Often times these signatures are obtained by fans of the respective player, so they don’t hit the secondary market all that much. I’m not sure these merit much premium either, but there may be exceptions.

What does merit a nice premium are cards signed by Magic: the Gathering’s creator, Richard Garfield.

I know Old School cards are more expensive nowadays, but these cards signed by Richard Garfield earned a tremendous premium! Consider, Mijae Djinn from Revised is typically worth around a buck. Arabian Nights copies of Wyluli Wolf are worth a few bucks unless in minty condition. These copies sold for many times more. Of course, part of the reason that the Wolf in particular merits such a large premium could be tied to the card’s association with Garfield—the name Wyluli is an anagram of Lily Wu, the name of Garfield’s first wife.

I am happy to own one signed Garfield card myself: a Revised Vesuvan Doppelganger.

I’m not sure how much premium this signature merits, but I don’t really plan on letting go of this card anyway. I acquired it in an elaborate trade and my plan is to hold onto it indefinitely. In fact, the person I acquired it from has an entire cube dedicated to Richard Garfield! This is just too cool a card to have and it’s not easily replaceable.

Other Famous Signatures?

I don’t see any on eBay, but I suspect Magic cards signed by famous people who play the game could be noteworthy. For example, we know Post Malone is an avid fan of Magic—could someone acquire a card signed by him for their collection? I don’t see why not! The same would go for former Major League Baseball player Hunter Pence. Even something signed by Martin Shkreli, once the most hated man in America, could be valuable. Remember that one time he made a comment somewhere about buying up all the Black Lotuses?

I searched for Magic cards with these signatures on eBay, but came up empty. In fact, I tried searching “MTG signed” on eBay and sorted by price, high to low, hoping to find something that stood out. What I found, however, was mostly a selection of Power, Dual Lands, and Old School cards signed by the artists themselves. Nothing off-the-wall like a famous actor, singer, or athlete. I guess for now this isn’t as much of a thing as I had hoped.

Either that or people who acquire such signatures have no plans of selling them—I wouldn’t blame them if that is the case. If I had a Magic card signed by someone famous, I wouldn’t be interested in letting it go either.

Wrapping It Up

It was fun to dive into the world of non-traditional signatures on Magic cards this week! Who knew that the extremely niche space would still find a following? Whether it be a collector of Richard Garfield signatures or a meme “Clint” signature, players have found interest in cards signed by people other than the original artist.

Personally, I think my quest is satisfied for the time being. Once I acquired the Beta Swamp signed by Chato, trying to buy a second would yield diminishing returns. One is enough. Maybe my next goal will be to acquire a card signed by someone more famous, to see if I can make that into a thing. Besides, who wouldn’t want a sweet Time Warp signed by Britney Spears or something? (Oops!... I did it again! Get it??)

If you own a card signed by someone special, please feel free to share it with me on Twitter! I’d love to see what else is out there—chances are, whatever you’re going to share will be more exciting than the signature of some random player from Idaho!

Generational Magic Player Spotlight: Julie Tysen

Posted on by Anthony Willier

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I Play a Game Called Magic: The Gathering... No, It's a Card Game

Sharing our Magic: the Gathering journey with each other is what makes this game more than just a game, it becomes a community. We create enjoyable moments with people who become friends and friends who become family. Here's a glimpse into someone's Magical life and how the game has been a part of it.

Today we're meeting Julie, one of the die-hard drafters at Mavericks. Julie and I have known and drafted against each other for a long time. Julie shares her Magic journey; not only as a player but as a female player in a male-dominated environment.

Help Me Welcome Our Next Contestant!

What's your name and how long have you played Magic: the Gathering?
My name is Julie Tysen and I started playing in college when Revised came out in '94. Sometime later, after I was married, my husband and I moved to Germany for 10 years and our Magic playing slowed down a lot. We played some on the Army base where my husband was stationed, but it was very infrequent.

After we got back to the states I wanted to pick it up again, but my first experience coming back was very odd. I played in a small local draft with six elementary-age children and one other adult. I then questioned how much the game had changed at that point.

Sometime in 2009, my husband suggested we go to something called GenCon. I had no idea what it was but saw Magic events, so we gave it a try. Of course, there were a ton of people playing, so I got my game on and the fire was back.

Julie

How did you first learn about Magic and who initially shared it with you?
The guy I was dating at the time had a stack of Magic cards laying around. I saw a white-bordered Forest that had rocks, moss, and trees, and it just spoke to me. I thought it was beautiful. So I told him, "You have to teach me this game!" After a little pushing, he relented and taught me how to play. I was totally hooked. I think it turned out pretty well since we ended up getting married.

Can you recall one of your first experiences playing the game?
Like many other new players, we were pretty bad starting out. We didn't have a lot of cards, but I had this obsession with a black/white deck highlighted by two cards: Serra Angel and Sengir Vampire.

At the time I was overly concerned about my creatures dying, so I was very bad at trading off my creatures to win the game. Thankfully, I've gotten better about that.

What format and type of deck did you play tonight?
I absolutely love drafting. I drafted Streets of New Capenna and played a Maestros deck which is completely out of my wheelhouse. I love playing green/white, but of course, with drafting you have to go with what comes your way. I like playing Commander occasionally, but drafting is my first love.

Any cards that were better or worse than you expected?
Nothing that stood out, but I built the deck around Maestros Diabolist. He was fine but definitely needed support from the other cards.

You mentioned drafting is your favorite format, why?
I enjoy the randomness of the deck-building process. Being able to use cards that you would never use in a constructed environment. Cards that generally aren't good, but are somewhat useful in draft. I enjoy putting those cards to use.

Do you play digital Magic and if so, how are you enjoying it?
I play Magic: Arena, but I take breaks every so often. For me, playing in person is a better overall experience. Even if I lose, I'm around others having fun, and that changes the atmosphere. When I play Arena it can be easy to get upset when you're facing an annoying deck. Arena is nice where if I want to get in on a draft, I don't have to wait until Friday, but it's still not the same. You lose something in the translation.

How did you have to adjust through the Pandemic?
Probably what you would expect. When we were able to attend in person I attended and followed the appropriate safety protocols, but when things were closed I utilized Arena quite a bit.

What's one of your favorite Magic cards?
There are a few, but the one that pops into my head is Felidar Sovereign. As I mentioned, I really enjoy green/white and trying to win through life gain. It's not the most effective strategy, but I still have fun trying.

Who do you normally play with?
I generally draft with the group of people at the store.

Do you and your husband still play Magic?
We played for a long time, but he's moved onto other hobbies. He now plays Pathfinder and really enjoys GMing.

Is there anyone else in your family that plays?
Not at the moment, but I'm looking forward to introducing Magic to my nieces. They're getting to the age where they're starting to be inquisitive. One in particular; she's 12 and I believe she would have a great time.

Is there anyone else you try to mentor or assist with the game?
I try to connect with the other women who come into the store and when we go to a convention like GenCon. The last time I was at GenCon a teenage girl expressed interest in learning the game, so we sat down, and played a few practice games. She had a great time and asked a lot of questions. It was very enjoyable. I talk with the guys as well, but I feel there are so few women that play, that I try to make an effort to welcome them.

Do you believe it's difficult for women to get involved in Magic?
I've personally never felt there was anything stopping me or other women from playing. I feel it's more of a cultural or societal issue. I work in a STEM field that has similar issues for women. While I was growing up, I definitely felt discouraged from playing these types of games. Though it wasn't as if someone said, "You can't play that.", it was a general thought that girls just didn't play them.

Do the game stores you've attended generally make you feel welcome?
Yes, they do. My experiences have been good. There have been times when I've felt uncomfortable when another player has a very suggestive playmat or sleeves. Fortunately, without me saying anything, the staff comes up and recommends that the player use something more appropriate. I truly do appreciate that. Many of the other players, by and large, treat me with the same respect that you would give anyone playing.

I remember one time when a player who was new to the store started "mansplaining" things to me. The guys around us, who knew me, started rolling their eyes at him expressing, "You don't need to explain anything to Julie." They knew that I was a competent player and sympathized accordingly. One small item I do like is when their restrooms don't just say 'MEN' on them. Overall, my experience has been very welcoming, everyone's really nice, and I feel that I'm valued for who I am.

From when you started in comparison to now, has the Magic experience improved for women?
Very slowly, but it is going in the right direction. I didn't see much change from when I started playing to when I got back into it in 2009. I would be in various events and there were maybe two or three other women attending. It has gotten better. When we go to GenCon I'm starting to see more and more women overall. There's always room for improvement, though.

Other than drafting, is there anything else that you focus on within Magic?
Magic provides me with a creative break. That's why I enjoy drafting. I get to bring a lot of creativity to my deck-building process. I know I could be more focused and dedicated to improving my play, but I use this game to relax. I like collecting cards, but I don't want to spend a lot of money. Through drafting, I'm able to do both and get the maximum enjoyment for myself.

Are there any interesting stories or moments that stand out from your years of playing?
I actually have a couple. The first one is where my opponent was able to defeat me with my own Ornithopter. They took control of it, pumped it up with a plus-X spell I don't remember, and took me down.

In the second example, I was playing in a casual tournament, and my opponent wanted to stop playing. So, to give me the win, he played a Lava Axe on himself. We both got a good laugh out of it.

To finish up, is there anything else you'd like to share?
The hope is for more girls to have the opportunity to try Magic. I believe it can be difficult, culturally, for them to get involved in a similar way to boys. I can't completely speak for how it is now, but when I started, I wasn't exposed to a lot of opportunities in this genre. The one thing I would encourage people to do is if you think one of your female relatives or friends might enjoy the game, reach out. You might be surprised.

The Wrap-Up.

I want to thank Julie for sharing her story and how Magic has been a part of it. I hope you enjoyed our discussion and look forward to the next installment.

Real-world Flavor: Green’s Philosophy in Citations

Posted on by Francesco Spagnol

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The love of nature […] is a furious, burning, physical greed…

Mary Webb

What's better than the concept of "nature" to evoke the philosophy of the color Green? The flavor text above is clearly referring to a green card. And Green might easily be the color with the strongest connection between its mana symbol (a stylized tree) and its philosophy. So, what is Green about, and what do Forests have in common with that?

Just like with Red, there are not that many green cards with real-world quotations for flavor text. Black and White are by far the most widely represented, with Blue somewhere in the middle. we have already dealt with the most interesting green cards in the past. However, there are still plenty of spells from this color we've yet to discuss that do an excellent job of embodying the philosophy of Green. Let's look at what that philosophy is, and then look at some representative cards and their flavor.

Green's Color Philosophy

Green is the last color in the Magic: the Gathering color pie. Its allies are Red and White. The first thing that comes to mind when thinking of the color is simply the concept of Nature. What else? We could also mention peace. Green doesn't try to change the natural course of things. In that, it's similar to its allied color White. On the other side, Green is also wild and relies on instinct rather than calculation. This puts it in alignment with its other ally Red.

How does green put into practice such beliefs? First of all, green wizards tend to live in peace with nature and do not alter the natural world. Sometimes, they can even get aggressive, when it comes to dealing with those who disrespect nature. For instance, one of Green's enemies is Blue, due to its drive towards inventions and artificial creations. Its other enemy is Black, due to the color's love for interfering with the natural course of life. In gameplay terms, we see Green's attributes reflected in its hate for artifacts and flying creatures, and its abundant mana.

Radjan Spirit

There was an error retrieving a chart for Radjan Spirit

Crawing, crawing,
For my crowse crawing,
I lost the best feather i’ my wing
For my crowse crawing.

Anonymous Scottish ballad

Radjan Spirit is a great example of Green's hate for flying creatures. Flying creatures are most commonly found in the color Blue, which, as we already discussed, is one of Green's enemies. Green has many ways of dealing with flyers. From creatures with reach, to kill spells that target them.

In this case, Radjan Spirit is a 3/2 creature for four mana with an ability that allows you to remove the flying from a target creature. While not the strongest of creatures, it's a good example of Green's dislike of flyers.

Naturalize

There was an error retrieving a chart for Naturalize

One touch of nature makes the whole world kin.

William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida

There is something else, though, that Green hates even more than flying creatures. I'm talking about the opposite of Nature: Artifacts. And, secondly, also Enchantments. But Artifacts are definitely the worst.

Again, green wizards don't like people to interfere with Nature, which means they hate artificial creations of any kind. Naturalize costs two mana, and it allows you to destroy any target Enchantment or Artifact at instant speed. It's a typical sideboard card, and the flavor text by Shakespeare is a nice addition, with its mention of nature and the concept of seeing the whole world as connected.

Quirion Ranger

There was an error retrieving a chart for Quirion Ranger

I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately.

Henry David Thoreau, Walden

Nature, unity... what is missing? Well, mana is another thing that definitely belongs to Green. Mana in Magic for all five colors is drawn from the natural surroundings of the lands. Green, and to a lesser extent red, get the ability to produce mana from other sources. In red it's often a result of elemental channeling (think Rite of Flame or Pyretic Ritual). In Green, mana production is represented by the primal life force of nature, and the ability to tap into it. This translates in gameplay terms not just into mana production, but also into mana ramping, i.e. speeding up the process of playing Lands, and mana fixing, allowing the production of mana outside its own color.

Quirion Ranger is one card that contributes to this purpose, though it might not be obvious at first glance. It's not a straightforward mana producer like Llanowar Elves. Any Elves player can tell you though, that Ranger is great because it allows you to untap mana producers like Priest of Titania and generate incredible amounts of mana.

Fertile Ground

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fertile Ground

The love of nature … is a furious, burning, physical greed… .

Mary Webb, The House in Dormer Forest

Fertile Ground is similar, in its purpose, to the card we have seen above. However, it's an Enchantment - Aura, and thus it works a bit differently. It's part of the big family of Auras whose progenitor is Limited Edition Alpha's Wild Growth. There are many cards working the same way, and the point is to enchant one of your lands and then untap it in order to gain tons of mana.

Another card worth mentioning here is Early Harvest. Early Harvest is an Instant that lets you untap all basic lands you control. This is great when you have some other effect on the board like Heartbeat of Spring, allowing your lands to each tap for multiple mana. Early Harvest is very similar to an older card from Legends, Reset. What's funky about Reset is you can only play it on an opponent's turn, and it's a Blue spell! This just goes to show that the color pie was a little wonky in Magic's early days. It's a quite natural ability for Green to have, and another example of

Conclusions

As we have seen in the course of this installment, Green has an easily recognizable color identity. Its philosophy, lore, and gameplay effects all work well together. Green doesn't like to change what's naturally going on. It's the enemy of weird spells such as artifacts and anything concerning necromancy, for instance. On the other side, it relies on Nature and the unity of all its creatures. The life force of nature translates into mana production in gameplay terms, and Green allows you to generate huge amounts of mana.

What do you think of this color? What other cards would you say define the color Green and its values? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Stay tuned for more delving into Magic's lore and philosophy.

Baldur’s Gate: The Best Commander Set EVER? Yes, Actually!

Posted on by Joe Mauri

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As a long-time player and fan of Dungeons and Dragons, Magic: The Gathering, and the Commander format it's easy for me to say Commander Legends: Battle For Baldur's Gate looks like a great set. But, let's face it, this looks like a great set! There is something for everyone out there whether it's the new Background mechanic, new Adventure cards, or even more cool tribal ideas. Let's take a look at some of the more exotic ones and I'm sure you will agree that this set has a lot to look forward to!

Removal!

Yes, Lightning Bolt! This is my absolute number one pick of all-time for removal in the game with only Swords to Plowshares ever fighting for that spot. The thing is, Bolt can kill both Planeswalkers *and* players along with most creatures that see significant play all for the low cost of one mana. For those reasons, it takes the top spot. It's an iconic Magic spell, and, while less iconic than Fireball or Magic Missile, is still a noteworthy spell in D&D.

New Mechanics!

Backgrounds are a very interesting mechanic and are essentially a follow-up and more balanced version of Partner. Wizards clearly saw that Partner is a popular mechanic but had to be sure not to create too much future power creep and Backgrounds are essentially the way forward. This is a uniquely D&D concept that became a core game mechanic in Fifth Edition although there were similar sub-systems in earlier versions as well.

Not only are Backgrounds a cool build around functionally speaking, but they also allow for expression in terms of flavor. Twice as many parameters to build around is definitely twice as much fun. The raw number of possible combinations from Commanders that have the Background Mechanic (27) + the Background itself (25) is something like 728 possible combinations. This is definitely enough room for variation and replayability.

A New And Darker Dungeon

Undercity and The Initiative gives us a new Dungeon to delve. This is my absolute single favorite new *and* returning mechanic to Baldur's. Going into the Dungeon was a cool and thematic effect but it was not nearly powerful enough for what it required to do it well. Now with both a better Dungeon in Undercity and the ability to trigger The Initiative *immediately* you get better and faster rewards. This is a nice addition from Wizards and I feel like it shows that Magic *can* continue to innovate.

Literally Baldur's Gate!

They had to and they did! Not only did they make a ton of new Gates but they made the one, the only, Baldur's Gate and it's good! I hope you will agree that the best part about the new Gate cards is actually powering up cards like Maze's End! Great flavor, good power, awesome synergy, sign me up.

Elder Dragons

While not *Legendary* Elder Dragons all of these creatures pack a huge punch and the D20 mechanic will create some spicy game moments. A roll of five or less certainly is not game-ending but each step higher is likely to be game-changing. I rate them from low to high as Gold, Bronze, Brass, Silver, and at the top Copper. The lower mana cost and the mathematical average of adding ten more mana on turn seven certainly looks strong but all of the Dragons are at the very least playable.

Mechanics From Random Sets

Escape(6), Foretell(5), Monstrosity(4), Overload(6), Replicate(5), Suspend(9), Unearth(5). I may have missed one but this is a crazy amount of different keywords for one set *on top of* everything else. If you checked out my last article here it's about some of the older, forgotten abilities that have cycled through Magic's life. The number next to each keyword above is the Storm Scale from one to ten on how likely something will be reprinted as a keyword in Standard. The simple fact is, this is a Commander set. At the same time, I think it's always nice to see that even Suspend which is rated at *nine* "I never say never, but this would require a minor miracle" can show up in a set at all. The other keywords are effectively "Is it right for the set? If so they can show up." As a huge fan of Magic's history, it's good to see these throwbacks when possible. Banding is coming, people!

And Now For Something Completely Different...

While the more powerful cards coming from the set will get piles or air time, these cards are my favorites for a variety of reasons and I wanted to go over each one briefly.

Wrathful Red Dragon

Wrathful Red Dragon is everything a red card should be and, also, it is everything a red dragon in D&D is. Are you not a Dragon? Take damage. The thing that strikes me the most about this card is that it is *NOT* a may ability. While you likely always have your opponents as non-Dragon targets, technically, you have to deal the damage. Circumstances could force you to hit your own non-Dragon creatures or even yourself or there could be higher upsides to such a play. For me, this card captures both the destructive nature of red Dragons in D&D while also calling back to older Magic design mechanics when there were significantly more symmetrical abilities and virtually nothing said "may." In the millions upon millions of Commander games that will be played in the future someone, eventually, is going to get killed by their *own* Wrathful Red Dragon just as it should be. To quote another game I am fond of "Never deal with a Dragon."

Nalia de'Arnise

Nalia de'Arnise is a *really* nifty card. If you've read my Heart of Commander article then you know all about the Deathtouch deck headed by Atraxa, Praetor's Voice. Looking at Nalia you can see she helps me synergize with Deathtouch, +1/+1 counters, and finally adds a potential tribal spin on top of all that! Now instead of just checking for Deathtouchers with additional abilities, I'm trying to specifically find Clerics, Rogues, Warriors, and Wizards with Deathtouch! Long live Party Touch! I'm always on the hunt for cards that offer this kind of unique intersectionality. As a slight aside, since I run Primal Surge as an ultimate win condition, she adds a hefty amount of damage so it's not *only* about flavor there's a decent power spike too!

Captain N'ghathrod

Captain N'ghathrod is yet another card for my boat deck wherein all cards must have boat-based artwork on them, with no exceptions. This deck was started in approximately 2012 as a joke but soon took on a life all its own because Wizards just kept printing boats on every card. Now it has transformed from mostly a thematic but very bad pile of cards into a somewhat functional deck with some high power cards like Demonic Tutor and Capsize. I'm not entirely sure if I'm going to replace my current boat-punching commander Wrexial, The Risen Deep with N'ghathrod but it's likely I can use him just as a solid five drop for five with a cool ability to replace something significantly worse. Again, there is the possibility that there's a significant amount of new synergy to find with boat-based Horrors both in recent sets and in future sets. Is this the part where I make a boat pun? No, if I do that I might get a stern talking to.

Black Market Connections

This is my favorite card from the entire set. I have written more than once about using life as a resource and really think that black has done a good job with this idea over the entirety of Magic's life. Looking at what Black Market Connections does is just so fun. First, there is the fact that it does not trigger during your Upkeep so you get to use the card *right away*. Next, you make decisions after your draw step with more information. You can choose up to three modes but realistically you are almost always going to draw a card and get a treasure. Finally, you have the option of paying three extra life to get a 3/2 colorless creature with all creature types. This is really huge for so many reasons. There are lots of tribal effects that *do care* if you are a Knight, Dragon, Zombie, etc. A colorless creature also has the ability to block creatures with various Protection effects. Last but not least, it has three power which really is the amount required to be a credible threat, especially to Planeswalkers. Signs point to paying roughly six life per turn and getting insane value out of it. And, yeah, it's an Enchantment which is the type of card that seems to be sneaking under most radars. I give this five of five stars and will be trying it in most of my black decks.

Fraying Line

Finally, Fraying Line is a card that probably looks a little odd to mention. For two mana it's a fairly slow and terrible board wipe. Nothing to write home about, yeah? The thing is, there is a story here, a D&D story. I had a group of players who were not new to D&D but we had never played together. We spent a fairly long time getting characters made and setting the adventure into motion. It was a rather standard affair, go kill some goblins in their underground lair.

At the top of the cave entrance was a rope that they could use to steady themselves while descending the steep cave floor. The difficulty to do this? Literally zero. Yes, I mean that, zero. On a D20 if they could get a one or better, they would succeed...except for penalties from armor. And yeah, these guys had a lot of armor. A few incredibly low rolls later and three party members had dropped the rope and tumbled down the steep slope taking damage and waking up the goblin sentries. A few shots later and the party was hurt and scrambling, they had to go back up the rope to retreat...and then it happened again. They slid down, smashed into the wall at the bottom, and thus we had a TPK (that's Total Party Kill).

To this day we reference the party that died to a piece of rope. Fraying Line, in your memory, I will build an entire deck around you being the most legendary rope in all the land and I will play this deck until it wins. Now that's dedication.

Dragons, Boats, Ropes, and More!

I am looking forward to Baldur's Gate for so many reasons but the single biggest reason is the building material. There are tons of good concept cards from D&D lore, mechanics like Backgrounds, and so many new tribal cards that the only limit here is your own imagination. That makes for a great Commander set in my opinion. What cards are you looking forward to from Baldur's Gate?

Strolling Down the Street: New Capenna’s Modern Impact

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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It's been a month since Streets of New Capenna released and it has had an impact on Modern. That has certainly been felt. By some decks. To an extent. Why yes, I am being quite cagey. The set has a lot of interesting cards in it and there is power enough for Modern there, but it is quite limited. The most visible addition has been fairly limited in impact and the most impactful additions are nearly invisible. That's just how it goes.

Which is mostly what I said in my preview articles. However, leaving it there is ignoring a lot of nuances involved and trivializing the impacts that SNC has had. Which is particularly relevant since the metagame update article is next week, otherwise known as the first look at how SNC impacted Modern. And it will look like nothing's changed, which isn't true. So today I'll be going through my predictions for SNC and comparing that to what's actually happened.

The Big Catchall Disclaimer

Obviously, I can't cover every single card that's seeing play from SNC. I can't find every niche card seeing niche play across all of Modern. It's just impossibly time consuming and this article would run to the dozens of pages. So I'm sticking to the cards that I actually covered in my preview articles. Also, I covered the big SNC card, Ledger Shredder, in detail last week. No need to retread old ground.

With that out of the way, and going in the order that I reviewed them in:

Allied Triomes

These were always going to be a cheat since they completed a cycle that was already seeing Modern play. The new triomes are being played in three-color-plus decks as one-of fetch targets, just as predicted. Just a massive gimmie.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spara's Headquarters

I thought that the Triomes would be used in 4-Color decks sparingly since they don't need more fixing, and would instead primarily give hope to struggling three-color archetypes. Specifically, Spara's Headquarters and Xander's Lounge would lead to a boost in their Alara shard midrange deck. That didn't exactly happen.

Instead, Headquarters has been fully incorporated by the 4-Color decks and Lounge sees almost no play. As of May 28 (which is the day that I pulled all the data I'm using in this article from MTGGoldfish), Headquarters had been played in 103 deck during may compared to Lounge's 11. I knew that midrange Grixis wasn't going to work out, and was proven right. Headquarters making it outside of straight Bant was a little surprising.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Raffine's Tower

As for the other three triomes, they're in the middle, nearly literally. Raffine's Tower is second most played at 50, while Ziatora's Proving Grounds and Jetmir's Garden both have 47. Garden's play is split between 4-Color and actual Naya decks while the other two are exclusively in their Alara shard decks.

Headquarter blowing up like this was unexpected because I overlooked the reality that 4-Color Omnath leans heavily into Bant colors with red being a support color. It's natural that such a deck will need more fixing for Bant. My underestimating of Tower is tied to Shredder seeing lots of play, as most of the decks running Tower are Shredder-centric decks. That Proving Grounds sees play in Jund isn't as surprising as how much Jund is seeing play. I would never have expected that to be the case, but the deck is truly eternal, apparently.

What I Missed

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ziatora's Proving Grounds

More importantly, the distribution of the decks highlights an oddity in Modern: black is very underrepresented. The average representation of the non-black lands is 75 while the black average is 36. The top decks in the metagame don't run black. This is an imbalance to keep track of.

An Offer You Can't Refuse

This was a card that I thought would see niche play as an anti-combo card. The drawback is quite steep; too steep for use against fair decks. However, interrupting combo often justifies extreme measures. There was an outside possibility of countering your own spells to ramp, but I discounted it as too cute.

There was an error retrieving a chart for An Offer You Can't Refuse

On that last point, the data agrees. I stopped hearing about Offer countering Mishra's Bauble very quickly and nobody's talked about it since release. It is far too cute without being good. As for the first point, I'm shocked to say that so far I was completely wrong. The only decks playing Offer at all are combo decks maindecking the spell. And in numbers that strongly indicate that they're intending to use it to protect their combos rather than for the ramp trick.

What I Missed

I would never have called Offer as combo protection. I can't say unequivocally that it isn't being used for ramp purposes in these decks, of course. However, the most common configuration is two maindeck and that indicates intention to counter opposing spells, not your own. Unless they're really going for that low-probability gotcha line.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

The best explanation I can come up with is that these decks are afraid of Teferi, Time Raveler and want a maindeck counter for him, specifically. There's no other noncreature spell that actually sees maindeck play which any combo deck might care about because counters and discard could be answered for value via Veil of Summer, which all the decks I found have in their sideboards.

It gets more perplexing considering just how much play Counterspell sees. If combo players are really worried about winning counter wars Flusterstorm and Veil make more sense than Offer. There has to be something I'm still missing here.

Ob Nixilis, the Adversary

I pegged Ob Nixilis, the Adversary as a niche card for decks that already had sacrifice fodder, and that's where Ob is actually seeing play. The abilities are too mediocre on their own to be worthwhile for most decks. However, an otherwise bricked Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is a solid sacrifice to get and additional mediocre effect.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis, the Adversary

One thing I didn't mention (but thought about) is that double Ob is extremely good against Burn. Making a devil token and then draining for two goes a long way against Burn, and if it happens twice a turn the game is over. That shouldn't be taken as advice to sideboard Ob specifically for the Burn matchup.

Mage's Attendant

The metagame continues to be dominated by UR Murktide. Making lots of Wizard tokens with Mage's Attendant would be theoretically crippling against said deck. In practice, that is not the case as I suspected and Attendant isn't doing anything in Modern. Much to my chagrin.

Luxior, Giada's Gift

After SCGCon Pittsburg, there hasn't been a single Luxior, Giada's Gift list that didn't run it alongside Devoted Druid. Also, as expected, they're all Urza's Saga decks to help find Luxior. And also as expected, they're not exactly reviving the creature combo deck. The problem's with the deck have been switched around and the backup plan is better, but that has not altered the structural weaknesses of the deck. Maybe next set.

Extraction Specialist

Another niche card, I mainly used Extraction Specialist to make a point about SNC's impact on Modern. There were so many conditions on Specialist being good that I didn't think it would see much play despite filling a niche that is going unfilled. The only possibility was in Humans to get back utility creatures.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Extraction Specialist

So imagine my surprise when that turned out incorrect. Specialist isn't seeing much play, but the play it does see is mostly in non-Humans decks. And even one Humans list is mainly doing so because of Pyre of Heroes!

What I Missed

Never underestimate the power of the fringe. You never know what odd interactions are out there that can make a card worthwhile. Fringe decks might be one piece of redundancy or resiliency away from being actively good. Also, Yorion, Sky Nomad decks are perfectly willing to maindeck niche cards, reasons need not apply.

Witness Protection

In a similar vein is Witness Protection. It's a card with a good effect eclipsed by something Modern already has, specifically Dress Down, and so sees no Modern play. As if to prove the point, Protection is seeing decent play in Pioneer, which lacks Dress Down.

Sticky Fingers

The only reason anyone might play Sticky Fingers was if Ragavan was banned. Ragavan is still legal, and so the slight possibility of Fingers being played becomes zero. Moving on.

Vivien on the Hunt

I was dismissive of Vivien on the Hunt. There have been so many attempts to recreate Birthing Pod over the years that I'm burned out on the possibilities. I'm not saying a pretender can't be good, but I am calling them pretenders for a reason. And Vivien has...done a surprisingly good job of pretending so far.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vivien on the Hunt

The early attempts at making Vivien work went roughly as I expected. Dedicated shells, often incorporating the Felidar Guardian/Saheeli Rai combo. Some included Luxior to combo with Saheeli because, frankly, why not? However, as May's worn on the decks have gone the Omnath, Locus of Creation route. I worried about the implications of this a few weeks ago and while Vivien combo hasn't caught on overall, being an Omnath deck certainly has.

What I Missed

I thought that having to play Planebound Accomplice would severely limit Vivien's play. That has been less burdensome than expected because of Yorion. Most of the Vivien decks are also Yorion decks and so there's space to burn. I also didn't appreciate how well the Vivien combo compliments Saheeli combo and that Accomplice can help that combo too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yorion, the Sky Nomad

Which brings up an interesting point about Modern combo decks. If Vivien strategically synergizes with Saheeli and the deck can function thanks to Yorion, are there more combos that can as well? With 80 cards, could there be more decks that can successfully hybridize? I have no idea, I don't have the creativity to conceive of such a deck nor the madness necessary to try. But current Vivien decks do suggest that there is an untapped potential of such decks in Modern to be discovered. Combo players, get cracking!

Bootleggers' Stash

Had Bootleggers' Stash worked out, it would have been a first for Modern. Not only would it (finally) make Time Sieve good, it would have brought a bit of Vintage gameplay to Modern never previously possible. Sadly, that wasn't to be. I suspect that other players found out as I did that making Stash work in Modern was too much work. It costs too much and is in a color that doesn't really play well with artifact decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Time Sieve

However, the gameplay that Stash might have brought around is in fact trying to gain a foothold in Modern. Whether out of a desire to get their money's worth out of Sieve or genuine interest in the deck I can't say, but players have combined Academy Manufactor, Underworld Cookbook, and Asmor...Asmorandwhatwasitagain? Asmo... Asmoran... AsmorandcomeonIcandothis... Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar (THERE! GOT IT!) to create a token engine to feed Sieve and eventually win via giant Shredder or Saga tokens.

What I Missed

I consistently underestimate the appeal of Asmorandwasthisjokeevenfunnythefirsttime and that whole food engine. Everyone was so high on Modern food right after MH2 dropped but it never lived up to the hype. When everything comes together its a solid midrange system but if anything's out of sync the deck just doesn't do anything.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar

Adding Manufactor doesn't really fix the main problem with the Asmoandherfoodiefriends engine but it does provide some durdly ways to get out of it and get some payoff. And taking infinite turns also alleviates the otherwise extremely anemic clock. However, the problems with the overall deck persist and I doubt it will seriously catch on, at which point we can all go back to assuming that AsmoIdontcareanymore just isn't worthwhile.

Street Sweeping

Despite appearances, Streets of New Capenna has had an unexpected effect on Modern. It just isn't an especially dramatic one so far. Should some of the fringier cards and/or strategies manage to defy current trends and catch on, that would lead to a dramatic overhaul of Modern. But whether that's possible has yet to be seen.

Detours in New Capenna Draft: The Decks that Matter

Posted on by Robert Genuario

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The biggest criticism of Streets of New Capenna limited is the dominance of the Brokers Family. There is some merit to this complaint. GW, WU, and the full three-color family have the highest winning percentages in their respective categories. Fortunately, draft is self-correcting. When drafters harvest the available Brokers cards, it forces us to rethink our game plan. The tension between availability and raw power level makes navigating Streets of New Capenna tricky. Let's look at the decks in the format I want to end up in at the end of the draft, and the order I believe they should be prioritized. Hopefully, this guide serves as your GPS, helping you get to where you want to end up in SNC Limited.

1.) Brokers, UW, and GW

Breaking Brokers

Drafters are prioritizing green, white, and blue for a reason. GW can be fine-tuned to optimize citizen synergies. UW can be fine-tuned to optimize counters strategies. Both avenues make Backup Agent a valuable glue-card, improving either deck. Similarly, the archetype has a lot of cheap cards that provide value. The best versions use low-cost creatures and spells to build an early lead, while still providing enough of a late-game advantage. Cards like Warm Welcome, Majestic Metamorphosis, Raffine's Informant, and Rooftop Nuisance are all good examples of this effect. At this stage in the format, it's not likely to see them come around on the wheel like they used to.

The top-end uncommons and gold commons are also ahead of the class. You don't need a ton of incentive to find yourself in this family. The power level of Brokers is such that you should start the draft wanting to be in these colors. The premium commons and uncommons are more than incentive enough. When I see a Psychic Pickpocket, Inspiring Overseer, Jewel Thief, or even something like Elegant Entourage, I'm going to take the bait. However, the days of putting on the blinders and committing to those decks have come and gone. Players have learned and adapted.

2.) Rakdos Blitz

Blitz for Damage and Value

On the complete opposite end of the color pie is the second deck I want to play. Avoiding the heavily prioritized Brokers cards, lets you see more playable options later in the pack. While the individual pulls of this deck aren't as enticing as some of the first picks in Brokers, the synergy between casualty and blitz offers a lot of power. I've expounded on why Blitz is such a powerful mechanic in this format, cashing out with a post-combat casualty effect is extremely potent. For this reason, I prioritize the cheaper casualty cards like Grisly Sigil and Light 'Em Up.

The most important card in this deck is Body Dropper. If I'm being honest, I'm not happy unless my Blitz deck has multiple copies of the two-drop. Running out a growing threat on turn two can instantly put the opponent on the defensive. It feasts off both blitz and casualty and can grow very quickly. At uncommon, Involuntary Employment is extremely powerful. Act of Treason variants are always more powerful in racing formats, and this one has sacrifice pay-offs in both casualty and Body Dropper. Finally, this is the best deck for Fake Your Own Death. It works swimmingly with your blitzers, especially the premium uncommon Night Clubber.

These decks might splash for blue or green, but because of their aggressive nature, they do so at a cost. While cards like Caldaia Strongarm or Maestros Charm have upside, I'm a little more reluctant to splash them in such an aggressive archetype.

3.) Big Green Piles

Prioritize Fixing and Let the Power Flow

If the plan is to take advantage of the cards that aren't being taken, then Riveteers (BRG)and Cabaretti (GWR) based packages offer a lot of opportunities. I do think RG is the worst allied-color pair in the format, but one man's trash is another man's treasure. By prioritizing fixing you can play something that harnesses a very high power level on a per-card basis. While decks like this don't offer the synergy of something more focused, many limited games are determined by independently powerful cards. When you see a late Ziatora's Envoy or Incandescent Aria floating around the table, you'll be able to take advantage.

This is a good way to utilize early white picks when UW isn't open. It is also a good home for early picks like Murder or Pugnacious Pugilist. To make this worthwhile, you need to prioritize your fixing. Playing haymaker after haymaker isn't what this format is really about, but it's still strong enough to beat up on the over-drafted colors if they're scraping for playables. Strangle and other early interaction can help you from falling behind, but this deck really relies on the strength of its rares and uncommons. You settle here because you're anticipating being passed bombs. Without premium cards, this deck will struggle.

Even though this format's aggressive nature should prey on this type of deck, zigging while the table zags can be a tactical counter. Unlike the Brokers family, however, I need a good reason to get into this type of deck. That usually means a bomb or a series of especially strong cards.

4.) Maestros-centric Control Decks

Answers, Card Advantage, and a Way to Win

In my heart of hearts, this is probably my favorite deck in the format, but it's not a particularly strong one. If you're playing a long-game deck, you're staking a claim that the pile of cards in front of you is more powerful than the stack of cards in front of your opponent. When both players are going to see a lot of their deck, you want to make sure that favors you. I've splashed Depopulate, Ziatora, the Incinerator and even Toluz, Clever Conductor to get the requisite power level to a satisfactory spot.

Because this format is aggressive, you are going to need a plan to blunt an opponent's early game. The Maestros ability triggers upside for its cards when you have five different mana costs in your graveyard. It's not particularly powerful, but you already need to prioritize cheap interaction, so getting a payoff there is nice. Strangle is great in this deck, but I'm often willing to play a Witness Protection here as well.

The problem is you need the power level to win, as well as a way to stabilize against the incessant pressure that comes from blitz and the Brokers decks. Fortunately, Snooping Newsie is picked fairly late in the pack (currently around pick eight on average). Its winning percentage is far better than that pick selection would imply. Lifelink is a huge boon for a deck that is often playing from behind and it definitely is a key part of the deck.

Arriving at Your Destination

Pack one, Pick one, I still think you're supposed to lean towards the Brokers family. It's deep and has a lot of options. Just be wary of committing too early. Sometimes it's hard to say goodbye to a first or second pick, but there are powerful cards in other colors too. While the best versions of the Brokers decks make you feel like a genius, finishing your deck off with Chrome Cat, Halo Scarab, and Paragon of Modernity will make you wish you took those powerful cards in other colors. Read the signs. Avoid the dead ends. Because in a world full of Brokers, sometimes it pays off to be anything but. Sometimes.

Speculating on New Standard Powerhouses

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Lately, it feels like Wizards of the Coast is constantly iterating on their organized play system. When COVID-19 became a pandemic, they had to make some changes in order to ensure some level of professional play would endure, since paper Magic was out of the question. Magic Arena did an acceptable job filling that gap.

However after over two years of flux and uncertainty, the Pro Tour will be coming back at a frequency (for now) of three times per year. That means players from all over the world will be competing in paper Magic events likely spanning both Limited and Standard formats. I welcome this update with open arms and an eager heart.

In fact, this news has even motivated me to look at Standard again for potential speculation. With the return of competitive paper Magic, we just may find ourselves re-living the golden years, where metagame shifts unfold during Pro Tours and card prices move drastically in response. Here’s hoping!

What’s on the Radar

Before touching on some cards, I need to transparently share that I will probably be a bit rusty in picking newer cards for speculation. That being said, I reviewed the Streets of New Capenna Set Championship top 8 lists and noticed a few standouts worth mentioning.

Fable of the Mirror-Breaker

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker

Holy ubiquity Batman, this card is everywhere and it’s so versatile! Because this card offers so many applications for just three mana, it shows up across multiple archetypes. The first mode provides you with a 2/2 creature that can attach to produce treasure tokens, which works very well in lists jamming Goldspan Dragons. The second mode provides helpful card filtering by letting you rummage twice. The third and final mode grants you a mini Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker. Talk about powerful!

It's no wonder 24 copies showed up in the top 8 of the Set Championship—that means six of the eight decks played the full playset. The card also shows up as the number one most played card in Standard on MTG Stocks and I can believe it!

Copies of this card are still findable in the $7 range, but Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty is approaching that sweet spot where prices bottom and then start to rebound as players shift focus toward newer sets. If this enchantment remains as dominant as the Pro Tours ramp up, I can see it doubling in price before the end of 2023. So far I’ve purchased just a single copy, but will keep an eye out for more if I can get them at a good price.

Tenacious Underdog

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tenacious Underdog

This new creature from Streets of New Capenna also made waves at the Set Championship. It showed up in five of the eight top 8 decks, though not always as a 4-of. I counted thirteen total copies, ranging from a singleton to the full playset. While it may not quite do as much as Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, the Tenacious Underdog still packs a punch, with solid stats for a two-mana creature.

Where this card really shines, though, is in its ability to come back over and over again from the graveyard. Not only does this make Tenacious Underdog tough to deal with on a permanent basis, it also offers you card draw when its blitzed from the graveyard, providing players with card advantage.

I wouldn’t be so hot on this card if it wasn’t so inexpensive! Copies start at just around a buck each plus shipping—it’s hard to imagine it will get too much cheaper. So far, I’ve bought six copies, but would love to get a solid chunk of 20 if I can find more in the $1 range. Granted, we may not have hit peak supply yet on the market, but if demand picks up as prospective professional players return to paper Magic, I can see this card climbing toward $5.

Raffine, Scheming Seer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Raffine, Scheming Seer

The first two cards I mentioned were rares, but Raffine is a mythic rare. This means the creature from Streets of New Capenna could have a higher ceiling. Two players included a full playset of this creature during the set championship. While my occasional Standard play on Arena probably doesn’t provide me with a true look at the metagame, I can confidently say I’ve faced down this creature on the opposite side of the battlefield multiple times. It can definitely impact the board, especially when combined with other creatures for a large-scale attack.

The ward ability make this card slightly more annoying to deal with, and that toughness of four means certain removal spells just won’t do the trick. Once the creature can attack and connive for a counter, it goes out of range of Voltage Surge as well.

I recently purchased two copies of this card in the $7 price range. Like the Tenacious Underdog, this card could see a slight increase in supply before the price can bottom and then climb higher. This card is also slightly more speculative because it costs three colors, narrowing the lists into which this deck is a smooth inclusion. Still, it shows up currently as the seventeenth most played card in Standard on MTG Stocks and I like it for a gamble.

Lands Lands Lands

After watching David Inglis pilot his Jeskai Storm build throughout live coverage of the Set Championship, I was inspired to try the list out myself. I must admit, this is the most fun I’ve had playing Standard in years. Being a fan of Storm lists in Legacy and Vintage, the opportunity to cast a dozen spells in a single turn in Standard was too juicy to pass up.

Throughout my budding experience playing this deck, I’ve learned how crucial it is to have a consistent mana base. In fact, on Arena I (like many others I suspect) have a short supply of wildcards. Because I wanted a functioning deck, I decided to craft the spells I needed for the deck, forgoing the optimal mana base in the short term. While this has been sufficient to experience the deck and have some success, I must say there are plenty of times when I’m punished for my weak mana base.

Swiftwater Cliffs just isn’t as good as Stormcarved Coast or Riverglide Pathway.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stormcarved Coast
There was an error retrieving a chart for Riverglide Pathway

As I look at David’s list, I see he played 20 lands (plus a smattering of modal double-faced cards) and 12 of those 20, or 60%, were rares. On Arena, this is a major wildcard drain to include the optimal mana base for such a deck. In paper, the pain is magnified because these rare lands add up quickly!

When I counted the lands on MTG Stocks’ most played cards of Standard, I found there were 15 in the top 50! Part of this is because lands from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty double as utility spells with little downside (they always come into play untapped) so there’s little reason not to include a couple.

The largest reason, however, is the fact that Standard decks currently favor three colors. When I browsed through the Set Championship top 8 lists, every one of them is named for a three-color shard. With the powerful cards introduced by Streets of New Capenna, along with the bevy of mana-fixing lands available to build with, there seems to be little reason not to run three colors.

Of course, three colors means an expensive manabase. I’m not going to single out individual lands in this article, but I just want to emphasize the importance of the rare lands in Standard. Some are older and closer to rotation, while others are brand new and may not have reached peak supply. No matter what you choose to speculate on though, you’ll likely not lose money as long as you flip the cards while they are still Standard legal. I haven’t purchased any myself yet because I need to research more on which ones may offer the most upside.

If I was forced to choose, I’d look closely at the Streets of New Capenna tri-lands as my first choice—maybe in the coming weeks, as supply peaks, I’ll pick up a few copies here or there. Not yet, though. I want to see how the metagame evolves more first.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Raffine's Tower

Wrapping It Up

It’s not often I find a Standard format entertaining enough that my interest is maintained for more than a week. So far, I’m just now passing the week mark for the newest metagame introduced by Streets of New Capenna, and the format has still been fun. Perhaps that’s partly because I can play Storm in the format!

As Standard gets more attention and paper pro play resumes, I’m anticipating an increase in demand for the format’s most played cards. With this theory in hand, I started examining the most successful lists from the recent Set Championship to identify key standouts with upside potential. In my opinion, this includes Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, Tenacious Underdog, and Raffine, Scheming Seer.

I’m sure there are other potential standouts, and I just may have to follow the metagame a little more closely to stay on top of the latest tech. No matter how the metagame evolves, however, I can guarantee rare lands will be a crux of each deck. This is because some of the recently printed rare lands offer utility beyond just tapping for mana. Most importantly, mana-fixing lands are critical in a format dominated by three-color decks.

It'll be interesting to see how organized play’s influence on card prices unfolds in the coming months. I’m optimistic for an inspiring season of engaging gameplay and dynamic card prices, yielding opportunity to speculate and profit along the way. I look forward to the ride!

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